done your way in redistricting. with the present at the top of the ballot that may not be helpful in some of these swing districts. >> the generic is one of the most certain indicators guest: in 2010 when we were in the majority, republicans were up 5 per se 6 in the generic. and they won. right now we are up and every single generic ballot. but we are not there yet. optimism has never won an election. we're not going to win this on optimism. i have of respectful disagreement with your analysis. whether you are right or wrong it is almost irrelevant. where will we be in october and november? we 25 seats to take the house back. i guarantee that this is going

to be a close election. it will be razor sharp. it will be based upon the quality of our recruits and we have high-quality recruits. our resources has out raise republicans by $7 million, off of the first time in history. and by the messaging. we are in a comfortable place. guest: the you have any concerns about president obama being a top the ballot? can you win back the house? guest: we have a counterintuitive battle ground. i think the president will do very well in this election. the more the people watch the republican debates, the more who are going to support the president. but separate and apart from that, our battle space is counterintuitive. we need to do well in states where the president may not be putting a lot of resources. as a result of redistricting, we did well in illinois. we need to do wellin california

because redistricting created a favorable environment. texas is another state where we need to do well and florida. so we are going to run and our own battle states with her own recruits. our challenge is to make sure that when people show up to vote for the president, we are moving them down ballot and get back the 9 million independent voters that are critical to our success. there were with us in 2006 and 2008, but not in 2010. guest: you are a former member of the blue dog coalition. i want ask you, a competitive district in north carolina. some folks who did not run again who lost last time. folks from the coalition say that they are concerned about going back on the ballot and having those run against them

with nancy pelosi the villain of the ads. they do not want to share the ballot with her again. what is your thought on that? has it been difficult for you to get these folks to stay on the ballot? guest: i have to responses in alphabetical order. medicare, medicare, medicare. this election is going to be about who members of congress were for. this is going to be a contrast. the issue of the vatican's nancy pelosi are irrelevant when you have to stand up in a town meeting and defend your constituents why you voted to end medicare for seniors to fund tax breaks for big oil companies. in north carolina -- i am a realist. we will not win this on optimism. north carolina was a challenge for us in redistricting. we knew that. and we more than compensated for

that in places like illinois, california. we think we we don't -- we will do well in texas. and in florida as welkewell. guest: dio you think the ads against nancy pelosi last time were not effective oral not be affected this time? guest: the ads with respect to nancy pelosi is what loss of the 2010 elections. i do not think it was said. i think it was the republican super pacs who lied about democrat saying a cut of a medicare when we know that their votes lengthen to the solvency of medicare. the difference in 2012 is that we get to tell the truth about them in 2012. they put their voting cards in and voted yes to ending medicare. if it is a vote that we will not

allow them to escape from h. we strengthened the solvency of medicare. the big difference between that on the medicare advantage planned. and a vote that the congressional budget office says will cost seniors an additional $6,000 and ends the guaranteed medicare benefit. big difference between the two. we will make sure the american people understand that difference. they do already, which is why we are doing so well in the generics. quote we are ahead with independent voters and seniors are coming back to was based on the rise in budget that bans medicare. not just and medicare but tax breaks to oil companies. host: are you expecting more retirements? guest: it is impossible to predict. in california, for example, republicans have had a slew of retirement as a result of the new landscape. look what is happening in

florida. as we speak, you have republicans running away from their districts. you need a scorecard to figure out what republicans are running were. they are literally moving out of their districts to try to run and more favorable district. there is no question it is fluid, but it has all been factored into our strategic plan. when the 25 seats to take the house. we know where they are and it will be close. host: if you made up in illinois what you lost in north carolina for redistricting, does that mean that some democratic incumbents can expect less money? they cannot expect as much support? guest: i would not say that at all. we will use all of our tools and our toolbox. we will vote to protect medicare and rebuild medicare. mike mcintyre never had easy districts. they are used to the challenges. they know they have to work hard and go back, and talk about what they are doing to rebuild the middle class.

contrast that to republicans in illinois who find themselves in more competitive districts who never had to work very hard, never had a real campaign. when you look at it on a regular basis, are candidates and more competitive districts are in a much better shape. they are battle tested. host: so you are promising just as much money to them as you are to the illinois democrat's? guest: we will make decisions based on a 50-state playing field and decide where resources are going to go based on strategic objectives and real time, real information on the ground pepp. guest: in illinois, there are several endangered republicans there. they are all running against it. in north carolina, you have a ride miller that was drawn into another disappear. mcintyre is still running for governor. you have somebody there that are

looking for options. and the general election is a hold for obama and where you are holding the dnc convention is well prepare. guest: early on, we said that north carolina is going to be a challenge, because republicans on the deal in north carolina. which is why it was so important for us to make sure we have fair and competitive processes that gave us wind at our back in illinois and in texas and florida. the bottom line is this -- the republicans, a year ago, they went to the highest mountain they could find and said they would wipe us off the map with redistricting. they were claiming pickups of 15-20 seats. now even republicans are saying it will 0gbbe a wash. factoring north carolina, it is still going to be a wash.

it'll be razor close. guest: let me ask about the floor mat. they seem to be approaching a compromise. we are starting to seek court challenges under the new fare district's law. are there places that use sea of concern. there are places where you need to pick up 3-4 seats. guest: first of all, is alan west's concern. he was talking about leaving his old district. congressman rooney is moving out of his district. these people are running out of their districts, but they cannot hide from their voting records. we need to do well in florida, but florida is a fascinating case, as you well know because he watched as more closely than anybody i know. florida has 600,000 more democratic voters. it happened because the

republicans overshot the runway. desaturated florida with republican seats and it is not sustainable. the only way republicans can add republicans in florida with redistricting is if they redistrict into bermuda and the cayman islands. they will try, but we do have their districts and florida and we are hopeful that -- imagine that we will go into court and hopeful at the end of the process we will have a good map. even republican maps because of the math give us seats. they have to because there are so many more democrats than republicans. if every seat was a democratic seat -- [laughter] we've also factored that in. there is never going to be a perfect is to wokrk hard

to create the best environment weekend. guest: you talk to democratic governors. i know you do not have coordination with super pacs, but i am curious about the gap between republican and democratic super pacs. for the house and the senate and the presidency. they have traveled so far behind the republican counterparts. guest: this is what keeps me up at night. we have checked the box on everything, all our strategic objectives. the one that we still have to focus on is the fact that karl rove and the koch are bin going to come in with undisclosed numbers of money and knock this off our feet. the dccc outspent the rncc by $20 million dollars. they have had a head start.

they have a donor network and they do not have to disclose who is contributing. we had in an adequate response to the super pacs in 2010. now we have allies that are standing up and developing a response in 2012. will they go dollar for dollar with republicans? no. but there will be a robust response that we lacked in 2010. guest: you think there is more money ready to be given? guest: i hope so. i am not allowed to solicit. but one of our allies knows that one of the things that went wrong in 2010 was a lack of response to karl rove in the super pac machine. guest: what is your pitch to donors at a time when the president is making an argument that they need to give him money and the dnc money. guest: i was with vice president biden a couple of days ago talking about the importance of us working together. and he said it best.

he said, "why would we want to have another term and have to fight every day against people who want to and medicare, will not give a tax break to the middle class, who continue to protect special interests?" the president understand. i have talked to him about this frequently. he understands that he needs a partner. he has not had a partner. every time he has negotiated on things like that debt ceiling where he thought he had the deal, the deal came apart because the tea party has taken over the republican caucus. he needs somebody who shares his values on rebuilding the middle class. and fighting special interests. and the house democratic majority will give him that. and our daughters aonors are ch. and we raised $7 million more than republicans last year. that has never happened before. our grass-roots -- half a million grassroots donors.

we got a letter from a woman a few weeks ago. contributed up to $3 a month on my credit cards to the dccc. easyn ssi, and it is not for me, but i think the democrats are going to protect my social security. and quit sending me so many e- mails." our grassroots are really charged up. host: on the issue of resources, the new red to blue program you have going -- 57 races you are targeting. are you spreading yourself thin? guest: the republicans are having a problem. in 2010, we had between 80-100 races we had to resourceful, protect or watch. we right now, were estimated it will be between 15 and 20. the republicans will have 60- 80 they have to protect.

in fact, republicans announced their most vulnerable and, lest a few days ago. their initial list has 30 incumbents that they themselves say are in trouble. we need 25 to take the house back. so we start off in a good place. we will have a narrow band with for incumbents. may i say, our candidates are one of the most obverse recruiting class as we have had and problem solvers. they are not about left or right. they are about solving problems. we have jose hernandez and california, a nasa bastion of. the first african-american female police chief in orlando. a 2-star in general and virginia. there is an unquenchable thirst for people who will solve problems. host: in the presidential news this week, you what a special election in oregon's special

district by 14 points. we learned there will be another special election because rep giffords did step aside. can you talk about the special election. it is a tossup district. flipped bothe that ways in new york. how much are you anticipating death to spend there? what are you doing on the ground there? given what has happened in the past year, it is the tenor of this campaign turned negative, do you think there could be a backlash there? guest: that district presents a fascinating case study. the district in which the special will occur is not the district in which the general will occur. they have done redistricting in arizona. the district that will be in place for the general is a much better democratic district than the current district that will be in place for the special.

i have talked to congresswoman they are looking at a variety of candidates. we are confident that the right candidate will emerge. guest: are you expecting her to endorse? guest: that will be her decision. we expect that the candidate reflects the kinds of priorities and values that she represented that district with. and we hope that there will be a decision and it. guest: issue helping you recruit? guest: yes. congresswoman giffords and mark and the people in that district have been doing that. guest: can you talk about some of those folks that you would like to see run for that seat? guest: no. guest: are you surprised that mark kelly decided not to run? that ron barber decided not to run?

guest: mark's primary concern is gabby. and i did talk to him. i asked him if he would consider running. he said that i am her primary caregiver and my obligation is to take care of her. that's fine enough. i will tell you that mark has been involved in helping to guide us to the landscape there and make sure we have the right candidate. host: one or two more questions. guest: can you see as an error -- this is a more competitive districts. can you see a scenario where you win the special and have a better chance to take it back in the general? guest: have every time i look at it, i see a different scenario. what is important as we need to make sure that we coalesce around a candidate for the

special. that is the task at hand. we will address the general once we have the right candidate who is running in the special. i am very confident that working with folks in arizona, in that district, we will have a good candidate for the special. guest: speaking of specials, to you have -- a race that maybe the prognosticators have not put on the board that you think you have a candidate? guest: in the special? is there another special? guest: i am not telling you to project an immediate. in november, is there a district where you think the democratic candidate is so good that they will overcome a 10-point gap? guest: various people that 2012 is starting to feel like 2006 where you had races that they did not think it would put on the boards that ended up on the boards. we need 25 seats. the conventional wisdom is that

you want to win 25, you have to have 50 and play. we have 75 and play right now. not all 75 are going to win. i am telling you that there will be some surprises. there will be some candidates running. we did not think that we were going to prevail . who will? guest: new york has yet to approach redistricting. what are you hearing that is going on? this is a several it -- this is a state we lost several seats less tiatst time. guest: we have three incumbent democrats in new york. we have to make sure that they come back. i believe that congresswoman hayworth, congresswoman did send, congresswoman grim and berkle will find themselves in very competitive environment. and maybe there will be others that we did not anticipate now

that get on the board's letter. host: congressman steve israel. thank you very much for your time. we are back with our reporter roundtable. jonathan allen, an overall assessment about whether or not democrats take back the house in 2012. guest: the map that congressman steve israel is talking about where he has 75 on the board is bigger than most prognosticators do as an independent location will look at. he talked about winning 25 or 30 seats. he has to do that as a net. right now it's not there. whether that changes over the next nine months is another issue. a lot of times it takes a while. if you ask people in 2010, and sutter, the would have said the democrats will lose seats but not lose the house.

you look at republicans now and say that they are likely to lose some seats. host: jessica taylor, you mentioned this. in your analysis, and in the report, he's saying it could be close to 25. but your analysis shows that it is 5-12. 12 at the most. guest: 12 could even be a generous assumption. democrats, a great night for them would be 12-20. that puts them a little bit closer in 2014. even some democratic strategists said that as when they could close the gap, depending on what happens in the presidential race. there are places where they will lose seats like north carolina and georgia. depending on how some of these court cases shape up in texas and florida, and we do not know the outcome in new york. those are undefined places where i think they have not had of breaks. in redistricting.

republicans have succeeded in playing offense. are democrats better off than they were one year ago? definitely. the democratic congressional campaign committee has done well. they have $19 million in debt left over. this is a real job to make this pitch to joggers and making it a rosier picture for the caucus. and tamping down on retirement of people wanted to stay. right now, we are still 10 months out. it is difficult to see that. but again, this time in 2010, we did not see that happening. the generic ballot is something that is taken as a whole. that is a nationwide indicate. one thing that skews that is people are sensing of pratt -- frustration with what is going on in the presidential race. republicans warring back and

forth. and that could make democrats seem like a rosier picture. that has some indication on that snapshot in time. and we are not voting for the house representative in the country as a whole. these are fought in individual districts. that 435 piece puzzle is not there for democrats. host: give our viewers the states to what occurratcj. guest: california needs to pick up as many as five seats. they have some good candidates. some of the major states in illinois that will have to do good. as i mentioned before, the democrats, one of the first phase will be north carolina. they are seeing members retire there. republicans are staying and fighting. democrats have won the retirement there -- jerry costello.

they even have a very strong possibility of losing that state. host: are we expecting more retirements? guest: there are certainly people on the board right now look like they are going to retire who have all but said they are going to retire. david dryer in california. with e in centin 1981 reagan. it seems clear to everybody that he is not going to run for reelection. everybody in washington expects that to happen. there will be a couple of others. host: on your question, jonathan allen, to steve israel about super pacs and the amount of money going to republican super pacs appears as democrats. he said it keeps him up at night. what do make of that? guest: there is a lot of money that will be flowing into these races from outside the

republicans are dominating right now. that money chase. maybe the democrats will find a way to keep up, but it sounds like at every level they are having difficulty. we saw that last time around. we saw outside groups, the crossroads groups come in and spend a lot and congressional races. this is something that democrats should be concerned about until they get on part. their donors are not doing that. we did not talk too much about why it is their donors are not ponying up. some of it has to do with the amount democrats, the amount of energy they have spent decrying the use of ssuper pacs. host: jessica taylor, when i asked him about the red to blue program, 57 park as they have on their list, help us redo the line. s. what is he saying that when he said he had incumbents with a narrow band with and i have my

candidates with a more open field? is that called for money? guest: democrats have done a great job. they have several strong candidate. that was the first thing they had to put into place. steve israel and allison schwartz have done it -- they have a good slate of candidates. after losing so many seats. that was the first piece of the puzzle. if he did not have a person there that is capable of running a competent campaigner, you have no hope. in some of these districts, on the red to blue program, even some of these are openly held democratic seats that will have to defend because of the retirement. are they going to flip some of these? certainly. it is a great program that has had success in 2006. so i think it will take a little bit more time fo. and as we start primaries to see if some of these are also. and competitive.

primaries. guest: in 2010, one of the things republicans did successfully was recruit former members of congress to run for their old seats. charlie bass, mike fitzpatrick, steve pearson. they were able to to come in with experience. the democrats this time around have a lot of failures in terms of their efforts to recruit all the candidates. tom periello. guest: who losein 2010. there was a poll that came out that showed that stephanie would decided not to run. guest: there is an opportunity for the democrats to work with some of the folks and were unable to do that. they will not have that same dynamic going into 2012 as the republicans did in 2010. host: we will leave it there. thank you very much.

>> according to the associated press, 70% of the votes have been counted in the better caucuses. results from the state's most populous county, clark county, which includes las vegas are being tallied. right now, the winner mitt romney is at 47%. newt gingrich has 22%. ron paul is in third with 18%. and rick santorum is in fourth with 11%. we will continue to update you with the latest results on c- span and c-span.org. >> by 2020, at least half of all energy that the navy uses will come from non fossil fuel sources. >> from sail to coal, navy secretary ray mavis on the reasons for a new energy standard for the fleet. >> we are too depde