they do not quite know what their way forward is. they are fearful of the consequences of their association with the conservatives won the next election comes around. they are a little bit punch drunk. we have a curious situation. >> [inaudible] 1 do you think are going to be the big bumps in the road? >> it will be something that no one has ever predicted. that always happens. the things that surprised

people. expected electoral reform would be a major bump in the road. they have managed to navigate it. defense policy might be one, up relations with europe might be wind, the economy -- even if the eyes in the -- of the imf might be one. there are serious divisions within the coalition as well as between the coalition in parliament. >> do join us we return on september 3.

>> republican presidential candidate mitt romney in jerusalem. a political roundtable on the 2012 presidential campaign. a house hearing on how to put -- improved drought forecasting. tomorrow, the state department releases its annual report on international religious freedom. we will have that live on it noon. at 2:00, hillary clinton gives a speech on international religious spirit -- religious freedom. >> the internet brings radical transparency to almost everything it touches. privacy becomes a constructs, created by laws and institutions and enforcement. >> monday night, an inside look

at the internet and cyber security on "the communicator's." >> we did not begin as a city. there was only a native american region and later, a county and another state called kentucky. we began in 1778 in virginia. >> join booktv and american history tv from louisville, ky. sunday at 5:00, three weeks in

1841 would be key in shaping abraham lincoln's views on slavery. the heyday honest -- of the steamboat on the ohio river. we explore the history and literary life of cities across america. >> republican presidential candidate mitt romney continued his overseas tour with a stop in israel this weekend to meet with prime minister netanyahu. he also addressed a gathering interisland to talk about the u.s. commitment to israel and the threats to its security from iran and its nuclear program. he is introduced by the mayor of jerusalem. this is about 20 minutes.

>> a day when jews around the world more and the destruction of jerusalem and a lot of tragedies that have befallen our people. as we conclude this day of fasting and prayer, we welcome you to a renewed, united, and thriving jerusalem. ññ

has returned to the central ed played two dozen years ago. we are grateful to you -- 2000 years ago. we're grateful to you for taking time out of your busy schedule to bring the message of friendship and support from the american people to the people of israel. last week that, we explored the common values and concerns that unite america and israel. we discussed ways of making the world a safer and better for our children and the importance of defending peace-loving citizens

of the world from those nations and ideologies that would do us harm. we shared our common beliefs of a strong economy to the actualization of our national goals. we look forward to hearing your thoughts and wish you a productive and meaningful visit to israel and to the holy city of jerusalem, at the united capital of the state of israel. [applause] let us greet governor of mitt romney. >> thank you.

thank you some months. thank you for your kind introduction. thank you for the warm welcome. it is a pleasure and privilege to be in israel again ntc so many dear friends. to step foot into israel is to step foot into a nation that began with an ancient promise. the jewish people persisted through one of the most monstrous crimes in human history. now this nation has come to take its place among the most impressive democracies on earth. israel possible achievements are a wonder of the modern world. these achievements are a tribute to the resilience of the israeli people. 

israel is the only one whose creation can be called a miracle. it is a deeply moving experience to be in jerusalem, the capital of israel. [applause] are two nations are separated by more than 5,000 miles. for american and broad, you cannot get much closer to the ideals and convictions of my own country than you do in israel. we are part of the great

fellowship of democracy, we speak the same language of freedom and justice and the right of every person to live in peace. we serve the same cause and we provoke the same hatreds -- in the shared values, one of district -- one of the voices is prime minister netanyahu. i look forward to my family joining with his this evening as they close this day. it is remarkable to consider how

much adversity is recalled by just one day on the calendar. this is a day of remembrance and morning. like other such occasions, it also calls for clarity and resolve. at this time, we also remember the 11 israeli athletes and coaches who were massacred 40 years ago. the tragic -- tragedies like this are not reserved for the past. their constant reminder of the reality of hate and the will with which that hate is executed upon the innocent.

never again will our independence be destroyed and never again will the jew become homeless or defenseless. it is today as israel faces enemies who deny past crimes against the israeli people, -- make no mistake, the ayatollahs and iran are testing our moral defenses. my message to the people of israel and the leaders of iran is one in the same. we will not look away. nor will my country ever look away from our passion and

commitment to israel. if an enemy of the jewish people says he seeks to destroy us, believe him. we have seen the horrors of history. we will not stand by, we will not watch them play out again. it would be foolish not to take iran's leaders at their word. they are the product of a radical theocracy. over the years, iran has amassed a brutal record. it has targeted diplomats and killed its own people. it supports the riskless regime in syria -- their ruthless regime in syria. it has plotted to assassinate diplomats on aamerican soil.

we have a solemn duty and a moral imperative to deny iran's leaders the means to follow through on their malevolent intentions. [applause] we should stand with all who would join our efforts to prevent a nuclear armed iran. do not erase from your memory the scenes from three years ago when the average team brought to death its own people as they rose up. the threats we face does not come from the iranian people but from the regime that oppresses them. five years ago, i stated my view that iran's pursuit for nuclear capability presents a threat to the world. that threat has only become

worse. the regime's claims that it seeks to enrich nuclear materials for peaceful purposes are belied by the years of deception. it gives us no reason to trust them. today, the regime is five years closer to developing capabilities. preventing that outcome must be our highest national security priority. i want to pause on that point. those who were most committed to stopping the iranian regime are reckless and provocative. the opposite is true. we are the true peace makers. history teaches with force and clarity that when the world's most despised regimes secure the world's most destructive weapons, we must not delude

ourselves into thinking the containment is an option. we must lead the effort to prevent iran from building nuclear weapons capability. we must employ all measures to dissuade the iranian regime permits to a clear course. it is our fervent hope that economic measures will do so. in the final analysis, at no option should be excluded. we recognize israel's right to defend itself and that is right for america to stand with you. these are some of the principles i outlined five years ago. let me turn from iran to other nations in the middle east. to the north, at syria is on the

brink of a civil war. the dictator in damascus. he slaughters his own people as he desperately clings to power. your other neighbor, linda non- combat is under the growing influence of hezbollah -- led the nine is under the growing influence of hezbollah. hopefully, this new government understands that one to measure of democracy is how those elected by the majority respect the rights of those in the minority. the international community must use its considerable influence to ensure the new government peace agreement with israel that was signed by the government. [applause]

of rockets have rained down is really homes and cities. . new attacks have been launched sinai peninsula. with hezbollah rockets aimed at north and hamas iran america is israel is even more critical. whenever the security of israel is most in doubt, america's be most secure. decision was before him 1948, harry truman decided

that the united states to be the first country to recognize the state of israel. from that moment, we have been the most natural of allies. rose up to become the friend of the people of israel is among the finest and most helpful in our nation's history. difference -- we see the same qualities of one another. israel and america are reflections of another. both believe in democracy and the right of every people to select their leaders. we both believe in the rule of law. both believe their rights are universal. believe in free

enterprise because it is the only economic system that has lifted people from poverty and that has inaugurated incomparable achievements. someone who spent most of his life in business, i am impressed israel's cutting edge and economy. recognize yours as the startup nation and the evidence is all around us. you have been priced economic liberty and to export technology, not tyranny or terrorism. he wore into of -- innovators. -- you are innovators. the citizens of our countries are fortunate to share the of economic freedom. built here with is a tribute to your people and a model for others.

we both believe in the freedom of expression. we are confident in our ideas and in the ability of our men and women to sing for themselves. we do not fear open debate. you do not have to cross the borders. all you have to do was walk down the street, stepped into a cafe. he will hear people reasoning, arguing, or speaking their minds. artists pick up an israeli newspaper. -- or just pick up an israeli newspaper. your nation is stronger through this energetic exchange of ideas and opinions. that is the latest in a free society. there millions of people in the middle east who chairs the opportunity to do the same thing. he's decent men and women desire

nothing -- these decent men and women desire nothing but to choose their government without fear of the oppression or repercussion. i believe those who oppose these fundamental rights are on the wrong side of history. march can be slow. the united states and israel have shown the beacon build strong economies and a strong military is, but we must also build a strong argument and advanced our values and promotes peace. we must work together to change hearts and awaken mines to the power of freedom and free enterprise and human rights. i believe the enduring alliance between the state of israel and the united states is more than a strategic alliance. it is a force for good in the world.

and there it does support of israel should make every american proud. we should not allow the inevitable complexities of modern geopolitics to secure fundamental touchdowns. no country or organization or individual should ever doubt this basic truth. a free and strong america will always stand with a free and strong israel. [applause] standing by israel does not mean with military intelligence cooperation . -- alone. diplomatic distance between our nations in bolden's the adversaries.

enboldens the adversaries. no individual, no nation, will press the parts. as long as we stay together, and stand the other, there is no threat to the cannot overcome. i love this country, i love america, and i love the friendship and passion we have for the values which we share. thank you for your support today. may god bless my country of america and may he blessed the country and nation of israel. thank you so much. [applause]

8÷x@aúw!

>> mitt romney finishes his overseas trip tomorrow in poland. he plans to visit the sites of the first shots fired in world war ii. a political roundtable discussion on the 2012 presidential campaign. this is about an hour.

if you look at what he said, it is understandable. maybe there is some question on that. the one thing you are seeing comment it did not doubt of the front pages the issue that had been out there for two weeks. even though the obama campaign tried to respond, tried to restate finally, it got off the front page of the paper. that was the one thing really accomplished in terms of finally, we have mitt romney saying, perhaps what he should not have said. >> your party is going to

continue to pound son. does that hurt you? >> it is out there. it was out there for two weeks. the one question many people have is of what every campaign does in terms of a trip to europe. was he trying to raise his credibility in terms of foreign affairs. if it was the latter, maybe there is some harm done. we will have to see how would dance. >> a lot of comparisons to what we sell four years ago when obama traveled to europe as well. >> four years ago, it was an important trip. hugh had questions about his

experience and his foreign- policy. it was more important, at this time, mitt romney was trying to check off the box, and look presidential. it has not succeeded on that front. it is it's a deal breaker that people will remember? >> it was seen as a great trip. polling numbers close right after that trip. it was seen as him doing a victory lap across the world. hopefully, this will not have the same effect in terms of his trip.

the numbers have been stuck at the same place for two months now. >> one of the issues that continues to come up, it is the likability factor. the washington post saying one of the problems medtronic is facing is that voters like the president more than mitt romney. guest: that is true in the british press. i think the likability saying is the fool's gold of the democrats. why they have been talking about the issue, mitt romney is tied. the president is that a 47% to

44%. if you look at the average, he is only three points more favorable in terms of the questions. that does not bring up the whole factor. it was interesting, we looked, we found about 20% of people approved of the job that the president did. -- disapproved of the job the president did, but approved of him personally. 68% of his voters said they would not vote to reelect the president. there is a certain amount of fool's gold in that group of voters. they do not like the job he's doing. >> let me share you one of the moment said did not get a lot of attention. during the course of the interview, he asked this question about his background.

>> this happened on meet the press. i want to get your reaction. what is relevant is who the guide is. he has an amazing personal story. his family was really an exodus story gone across the west. he cannot talk about it because mormonlves more mechan -- ism. he cannot talk about it because it involved -- because he is a hit in the -- hidden man. >> my dad came back to the u.s. with his family. they went broke multiple times. his dad was a contractor. my dad did not complete college. he went on to the head of a car

company and a governor. i think it is remarkable story. i am a member of the church of jesus christ of latter-day saints. some call that the mormon church. that is fine with me. there is no question they have helped shape my perspective. we try to give about 10% of part-time, not just 10% of our money. those things have enriched our lives. given us perspectives that go beyond the group of friends who might have otherwise had. it has given me a sense of what other people are experiencing. that is why, by the way, i want so badly to help people with better jobs and better in comes. host: that question bids to the

court issues facing the campaign. why should we vote for him? >> yes. the primary if process is more focused on where you stand and what you represent. this is the transition were you bring to the surface more of that. some of these public polling questions of the day drive me through the roof. there was a question recently about who would rather sit next to on a plane ride. would you rather sit next to mitt romney or barack obama? it was overwhelmingly barack obama. that is not the question of this election. who will do a better job to move this country? >> 100 days to sway the

undecided. the conversations with voters showing how little the daily media circus actually it moves its intended target. many voters know that he is not obama. >> it is a marathon. i do not think his religion is a central problem. i think the bigger problem from

his inability to connect and understand people. he was asked about his wife's a hobby of the horse dressage. that is a politician's answer. he does not relate to people as a percent, or a human. . he is leading on that question by double digits. one of the things that has been quite striking -- this is going

to be an extremely close election until the very end. if you go back to may, when the president really launched into his general election campaign, the race was a barack obama leading by 2 points. if you look at favorable or unfavorable, it is 2-1-and has been there for the last two months. all of those components --so all those components lead to a close race. this is exactly what we're talking about here which is everyone is going to get wrapped up in the day to day and it's

going to be some good brace for barack obama, some good gays for mitt romney but i believe the last two weeks of the election, the race will be where it is today, a dead heat. >> ed goeas and mike bocian, a major role for the independents, we'll look at the debates, and bob, from hazelwood, missouri, good morning. caller: good morning, gentlemen. i don't know why people say that romney is hard to get to know, or that he's hiding something. certainly he's hiding something, he's hideing millions in off shore accounts. i don't know what people have to do to make a decision of a quality of a character of a man other than that, despite the fact that his $77,000 tax deduction for a horse, and his statement that he hikes to fire people, runs bain capital, loaded companies down with debt, then siphon the money off, then bankrupt the companies.

how much more do you have to know about a man's character. i must be one of those uneducated people that the prior caller was referring to when she called mitt romney a decent man. does a decent man have offshore accounts for a tax dodge? >> host: thank you for the call and steve harrison wearing in as well, romney can get the job done, yeah, and send it to china? guest: you're taking minor parts. the fact of the matter is, if you look at president clinton, he acknowledges he has a good record in terms of creating jobs. the bottom line figure is net 100,000 jobs in the years with bain capital that he created, but what the last caller reminds me of is he is listening to the obama campaign, he is listening to the obama spots. one of the things that is i

think somewhat frustrating for the obama campaign is where the reference you made of mitt romney spending a lot of money in the campaign, that was money spent during the primary, not money spent in the last two months. what people want to hear is what is he doing to -- going to do different than the last 3 1/2 years to actually make our economy better. guest: romney is actually not defending his records. none of husband ads boast about -- if he's been such a great

businessman, you think he'd be proud to run on this and the questions are oh, i wasn't there at the time, it's not something that he's running on which i think he's going to have to. guest: some of the answers aren't being reported michael. the gentleman talks about the 77,000 tax deduction. that wasn't what he took. that's what he could have taken. that's what he could have taken but what he did take is a couple thousand dollars because the horse, that the obama got embarrassed about, was used for the rehabilitation with his wife for the illness she had, so they're embarrassed to be out there putting out this information when in fact it's false. they're taking a piece, twisting it, putting it on the air and in terms of the romney campaign, i think the biggest surprise we're going to have in this campaign is by the end of the summer, because of the spending of the obama campaign and the romney campaign being very disciplined, romney is going to have more cash on hand at the end of the summer going into the fall campaign than the obama

campaign, and no one a year ago would have thought that would have had. host: let me follow up. at what point is there a law of diminishing returns when it comes to advertising, and we look in the washington d.c. area, virginia is one of the battleground states and we're seeing the ads over and over again, the same is true in new mexico and colorado, florida, iowa, ohio, pennsylvania. at what point do those ads become less effective? guest: in congressional and senate races, there's almost no return. you'd almost rather be running more the advertisements because they can have some impact but they don't on their own change the race. what i think is interesting is sort of the not the back and forth but romney is not running on his record as governor, his record at bain, he's simply running as i'm not obama and i don't think obama is doing a good job.

i think for him to have a chance and close the favorability gap and close the very small but real obama lead that's been will consistently across the polls, he's going to have some record, some alternative of why he should be president, not simply why it's time for obama to go. host: you both referred to polls. let me ask you, michael bocian, polls of voters is boc us, the only polls that count, that of likely voters. guest: i think that's right. the challenge is we don't always know with certainty who the electorate, everybody their own model. guest: wi say that those of us that are doing likely polls like we do, and i know you do with many of your polls, likely voter screen we're doing is taking out those people who say they definitely will not vote in this election, when is about 6 percent or 7 percent. it's not getting down to the 70 percent, 72 percent, of voters that will vote in this election.

but it's also missing -- and you mentioned independents earlier. i've just been amazed at this whole discussion about independent voters because every story focuses on independent voters in terms of the obama independent voters and what are they going to do in this election. he only won independents by 7 percent, first of all, second of all, two-thirds of the independent voters vote in every presidential election, one third vote occasionally. they vote when they're motivated to vote in that election. they're the angry independents and i guarantee you the angry independents of 2012 are not those of 2008 and that's what the news media is. s are missing, how do you focus in on the independents that are going to truly participate in this election. host: want to share with you a couple of the campaign ads, beginning with the romney campaign, before the naacp. here's that spot: >> governor romney's speech hit the nail on the head. we have a nation that's

suffering economically. he wants to provide an equal opportunity to every american. >> americans of every background are asking when this economy will finally recover. and you in particular are entitled to an answer. >> we need in our next president someone who will be honest, open and transparent. >> if i'm president, job one for me will be creating jobs. let me say that again. my policy will be, number one, create jobs for the american people. i do not have a hidden agenda. >> do these five things. open up energy. expand trade. cut the growth of government. focus on better educating tomorrow's works today, and restore economic freedom and jobs will come back to america and wages will rise again. we have got to do it.

>> what we need is a leader that can see the problems. we need mitt romney. and host: in 2008 the president got 92 percent of the african- american vote. we should point out mitt romney did accept a couple of boos in front of the naacp, that was edited out of this. nothing wrong with that, but for the record. what's going on here, what is this ad trying to go after? guest: again, i think at the end of the day, both presidential candidates have to campaign to all americans. that's what the office is about, that's what the campaign is about and that's what they have to touch at some point in the campaign. i think this spot does a pretty effective spot. i will say this is a web spot, this is not one that's going to be going on the air. in fact i was trying to calculate the time. it looked like it was about a minute and a half in terms of

time. it would never be put on the air, unfortunately, because it would cost too much. but one of the things you are seeing is a lot of battle back and forth on the web spots, is that i think more and more is being seen out there. not only in terms of people going to the websites for information, but institutions like yourself that actually put these spots and lets people see them. host: michelle has this point from the ohio market, we mute the ads at this point. it is a running joke around these parts, wasting money. ed from lawrenceville, georgia, republican line, good morning. caller: good morning. what i have problems with is all the things that obama is doing that nobody is talking about, like he wouldn't do the pipeline and now the chinese are going to buy that oil company and we're going to end up buying the oil from the chinese. and he's going to close down about 150 of our cold powered electric plants.

nobody is talking about that. also prices of everything are going to go up, taxes are going to go up, and everything is being held up in the senate because obama told reid not to pass any bills, don't do anything. host: your response? >> guest: two points. on the fact on the energy area, the obama administration has opened up more domestic drilling than previous administrations, so at the starting point they have a short term plan of expanding production of energy, they have a long term plan of moving our run to running on clean energy, which i think is wildly popular, it's what the american people would like to see, and it's where they're headed. so yeah, i think that -- i would characterize their energy plan a little differently than that was characterized there. host: let me go back to charlie cook, one of the arbiters of balance when it comes to looking at elections and politics, he writes in his column for the national journal, romney's

anchor, again, the negative impression of mitt romney, preventing him from fully capitalizing on this sluggish economy. when you say that voters aren't paying attention, many people remember when john kerry was painted as a swift vote veterans for truth and was for or against it and that stayed in voters' minds through the election and 2004 could be compared with 2012 with a sitting president running for reelection. >> first of all, i didn't say they weren't listening. i said they weren't moving. there's a difference between the two. i do believe, again, that there's a lot of overemphasis on the issue of the likability. they're going there because that's all they really have left in terms of a contrast. but as i said, the -- >> host: the obama campaign. guest guest the obama campaign, the favorable-unfavorable for the two candidates are three points difference at this point, they're basically both as favorable asnfavorable and

when you look at obama's numbers it's net strongly unfavorly bigger than a strongly favorable on the numbers, so i think a lot of this favorability, this fool's gold for the democrats is what's being talked about ever since the primaries, they kind of grabbed on to it and they're going to continue to drive it home. i think the frustration quite frankly for some of the news media and whether charie cook -- yes he is very balanced and i have a great deal of respect for him -- but they also have to file stories and i think one of the problems they' having is they're seeing no impact on many of the stories that they're writing about, and they are coming up to in the next 30 days -- they're coming up -- or 40 days, they're coming up to the last 60 days of the campaign, where the message from the written press, from the free press, will be vastly overshouted by the messages from the two campaigns. so their ability to impact the

messages in the campaign are coming into a time where it's much more limited and i'm planning them to be much, much more frustrated, both on that the right and on the left in terms of the news media, that we want to be more of a player in this campaign than what it looks like we will be. guest: i would say, i actually agree on the stability of the numbers. both candidates have had their unfavorables at about 45 percent, the difference is obama's favorable is about 47 and the average for romney is about 40. romney has an improvement after the republican primary and it's been in place for months. the favorability in july is not all that predictive of who wins the election but favorability post september is, so if romney doesn't change in -- in every election since 176, the candidate who had favorability post september won the election so romney has a few months to change things but if he doesn't change things, wee keep the stability, that works to obama's advantage. guest: what we're going to see,

it is going to be driven by the economy and you have 40 percent of the country today in poll after poll saying that barack obama has made the economy better. in our polling, he's getting 91 percent of that vote. you have 40 percent saying he's made the economy worse, romney is getting 91 percent of that vote. you have 20 percent in the middle who says he's had no impact. that 20 percent, romney is winning in our polling by 46-44, dead even race, most like the numbers nationally. that's where you're going to see this race move. is that at some point, that 20 percent, if they come to the conclusion that, in fact, barack obama has made things better, they're going to move towards barack obama. what is more likely in a campaign like this, very much like the 1980 campaign, is that 20 percent is going to come to the conclusion he hasn't made things better or had no impact. they're not going to walk in on election day and vote for barack obama, and that's what this race is gng to come down and that's where you can see a late surge in this campaign that historically as the numbers continue to look like 1980, ronald reagan wasn't the be all to end all candidate in 1980.

he became that in '84. you saw that same collapse in his direction. and i think the potential for that to happen in this election is also there. host: ed goeas, mike bocian, democratic pollster here a the table, our lines are open, give us a call as we look at campaign 2012, 100 days before election day. next is a viewer from brooklyn, new york, oca is on the phone, our independent line, good morning, welcome to the program. oca. caller: good morning. look, the problem i really have with books on parties, it's not really about barack obama or mitt romney. we should concentrate on ask the people in congress who have no morals with their behavior and attitude of no compromise and moving the country forward. host: and in fact, congressional approval overall is in the single digits.

the high single digits, 8 percent, 9 percent, approve of what congress is doing. guest: i actually think the biggest struggle the obama administration has had is i don't think they anticipated how difficult it would be to get people to agree. i mean, i think they viewed the president as somebody who was transformational and that he is somebody who could work with both parties but the fact is, from day one, the senate leader, mitch mcconnell, said that his number one goal was to make obama a one-termer. it's not just one party. this is the way washington is now. there is a greater focus on defeating the other side than on passing good legislation or compromise. host: i want to go back to the polls and get your reaction, the latest "wall street journal," 60 percent of those surveyed, saying the country is headed in the wrong direction. how do you win with those numbers?

guest: shouldn't. the reality is the environmental dynamics here, the 60 percent wrong direction, the economy not where anybody would want it to be. you shouldn't be able to win that election. you just shouldn't. yet, obama in the national polls has a small lead and the other story that's amazing, if you look at the swing states, obama is doing better than in the swing states than nationally. the only two states that he won in 2008 that he's losing are indiana, which he's very unlikely to win and north carolina, where it's about even, he's maybe down a point or two. romney cannot win unless he wins ohio or the northwestern states, where he's not doing well at all. guest: two things for barack obama, he didn't have a primary and republicans have a contested primary. the big surprise is everyone roll he'd behind romney once he got the nomination wrapped up. he's winning with republicans by a bigger margin than obama wins with democrats and the other

thing is he's going to have a billion dollars, he's going to have so much more than the other side that he'll be able to hammer down this 2-1 margin in terms of right direction, wrong track. all the numbers now are basically stacked against barack obama. and i know you keep coming back and saying, you know, lead by a small margin. fact of the matter is that small margin is one percentage points, average of all the polls. fact of the matter is if you look at the likely voter polls which you said earlier, i believe, a better thing to look at this point in the campaign, through the campaign, romney is actually winning with those. fact of the matter is he is actually leading in a few more states. he's now leading in missouri, he's now very close in virginia. every single one of the target states is within the margin of error.

and every one of the target states, barack obama is under 50 percent. so you know, talking about the numbers and talking about the reality of the numbers are two different things. within the margin of error, below 50 percent should be extremely disconcerning to the obama campaign. host: david is on the phone, clinton township, republican line, good morning. caller: good morning. i got a mouthful of food! good morning gentlemen, good morning american people. i am so pumped up about this election, i'm shaking, okay? especially about our vice president that romney might pick, like rob portman. most important thing to republicans now is our vice president would really, really give romney a boost. rob portman, from indiana, in the black, okay, he was a wonderful governor of indiana, he is a member -- i don't know if he's a chairman, but he's a member of the defense committee.

host: i'll stop you there. rob portman, senator from ohio, but your comment. guest: him specifically but also the running mate that we'll see presumably after the olympics. guest: typically you can only lose an election with a vice presidential nominee or make things worse, which was done in 2008. not that that mccain would have won that, the vice president nominee doesn't provide much of a boost. there's a short term boost. i do think ohio, it's very hard for romney to win without winning ohio so portman would be a logical pick in many ways. he doesn't bring a whole lot in the sense of ohio, he's not terribly well known in his state, but i actually think there is real intelligence to pick, where if you can get a point in ohio, that would be very important for him. guest: the two premises is do no harm, don't pick anybody that brings harm to you and

pick someone who could in fact serve if called upon if something were to happen to the president and i think in both cases rob portman certainly meets both of those. i also think he meets another. we are facing, as we've been talking about here in washington in recent weeks, we're facing an click cliff after this election. there is almost a perfect storm of click problems that this country is going to be facing. we had a real opportunity, a real opportunity with the supercommittee to actually go past the not being able to agree on anything, to not need the 60 percent in the senate in terms of agreements and not face a lot of amended decisions, and the supercommittee ended up falling apart and not getting its job done, which is part of the reason we reached this economic cliff. i actually think rob portman would be an interesting and dynamic speaker in terms of

what went wrong in items of that supercommittee and more specifically, what the president did to back off showing any leadership in terms of push thank supercommittee to do the right thing, so i think he's an excellent choice. host: jessica says hopefully the people will remember how congress refused to work with the president on all issues, hoping to make him look bad. mary on the phone from biloxi, mississippi, democrats' line, good morning. caller: good morning. i'm calling in regard to the caller from north carolina. i think that republican christians need to remember that this country was founded on religious freedom, not christianty. one of the founding fathers, himes solomon, was jewish, not christian, benjamin said light houses were more useful than christian, i'm not here to say that christianty is a bad thing, but this country was founded on religious freedom. the candidate that isn't a christian is mitt romney.

republican christians need to realize that. when they say things like the caller did from north carolina. obama is moving this country in the right direction. he saved the banks, he saved the car industry, there have been unprecedented stimulus packages to build infrastructure in this country, he saved education by implementing the common core state standard, no child left behind was disastrous, and the bottom line was all of this is obama is the one that got usama bin laden. and people need to realize we're a safer country, the economy that he was given by george bush, with two unprecedented wars, was disastrous. host: thank you mary. ed goeas. guest: i also always have to smile a little bit and not to disparage the last caller, but every campaign has strengths and weaknesses, and that's what campaigns are all about.

i think what we have found so far in the race, with this race being very close, is that the democrats have coalesced behind barack obama. he's winning democrats by that 83 points. republicans have coalesced behind mitt romney. he's winning republicans by net 88 points. what is interesting is you see the two campaigns throughout their strengths and the weakness of their opponent, which is what a campaign is all about, is how that base vote latches on to the latest piece of information on the reason to be against the guy on the other side. and that's what you hear in a lot of these calls, is people kind of latching on to bits and pieces of information, on bits and pieces of strengths and weaknesses on the two candidates. host: and one of the strengths mitt romney is banking on is the suck in the private sector. over 1000 adults, a margin of error plus or minus 4 percent but based on this one question, would mitt romney's business

background, including his head of bain capital, cause him to make good or bad decisions as president in dealing with economic problems, 63 percent said yes, good decisions, 29 percent said bad. guest: well, so i mean, it leads to the question of why is he not running on that record at bain capital. he's not only not running on t. he's running away from it. he is actively running away from that record. without question. so i think it's incumbent upon him to prove those numbers right. the reality is most voters are trying to hear the true story of what his business experience is and it is one based on outsourcing american jobs and making great profits in doing so. if that's the record he wants to run on, he should be running on it. i just don't see it helping him. guest: and we have 100 days left and obama is massively outspending mitt romney on the air in the last two months, mitt romney is going to be able to, i believe, outspend barack obama on the air in the last two-months of the campaign, in

september and october. the fact of the matter is, he will be telling the story. the time will come when he is doing more paid advertising and he will focus on the bits and pieces of his story, and one of the things you always see in the challenger, you saw it with barack obama four years ago, you're going to see it with mitt romney in this election, is they use the convention not just to slidfy the base but to tell a big part of their story of who they are and i think you're going to see that at the end of august. guest: but he did run a primary and in his primary he did not run ads on his tenure as governor of massachusetts, he did not run on bain capital. guest: he did talk about both of those things in his speeches and quite frankly, one of the things that would be interesting to have a discussion on, but the whole issue and the impact of supercommittees in the primary changed the dynamics of

that. the impact of so many debates being highly watched changed the dynamics of that. if you go to the debates which were highly watched he did talk about both of those things. if you look at what he had to deal with in terms of the supercommittees, of candidates basically being propped up long before they would still be alive in the primary process, it's a whole different issue. but if you want to see it, i would just wait. it's coming. host: layton, sarasota, good morning. caller: i'm one of the people that you guys are talking about, the swing voter, and i didn't vote in the last election because i really didn't care for either candidate. so that was the way i spoke my vote. but you can talk about, like, you know, likability and all of this stuff, but mainly, what i'm going to vote on are economic numbers. and obama is trying to convince

us, you know, the swing voters, that everything is all right. and we don't believe that. and many people i know that are independents, that have sat it out, are not now going to sit it out. they're going for romney. host: sounds like you're leaning towards mitt romney. caller: and i got polled, and somebody asked me if i liked obama, and yeah, i like him as a person, but i don't want to hand the keys of the kingdom back to somebody that has never even been a night manager for 711. host: it sounds like you're leaning towards the republican, to mitt romney. caller: definitely. guest: well, ronald reagan was never a businessman, either, and lots of republicans think he did a good job with the economy. i don't think that's the sole qualifier. the fact of the matter is the economy is not in great shape,

the president was handed the keys to the worst economy in generations and we are seeing some signs of improvement, we are seeing some actions that have started to help turn things around. it's not where everybody wants it to be. the question people have, really, is over the next four years, what is the choice that we want, do we want an economy geared towards helping the middle class, do we want an economy geared towards helping the wealthiest, the multi- national corporations, and that's the choice that the president is putting in front of people, and i think it's a choice that we're going to be facing. host: sasha says romney will spend after he is nominated. this republican convention is late. last week of august. democratic convention in early september. guest: right. host: does it help or hurt when it comes to momentum and also the logistics of a nominee? guest: we'll have to see. i think the reason why the conventions -- and i was a

program director on the last convention. the reason why it's moving later and later and later is because they're trying to move it so that it is in play in terms of what's happening in the fall, as opposed to being in the middle of the summer, then everyone goes back to their barbecues and lake and whatever they're doing during the summer. vacations. i'm going to come back to the caller, though. very often, in -- and the caller, i will not say the caller represents all independents, but she does represent the one third of the independents i'm talking about, which are not the every year, year in, year out, independents who votes in the presidential election, but fades in and out. that there is something that keying them to participate this year that didn't key them to participate last year. some that were keyed to participate last year that is not there this year because of disappointment on barack obama, not delivering in terms of the economy that he said he could turn around. i think the one problem with what meek was saying and the

democratskind of keep on this line, is that he knew we were in bad economic straits. we had an economic crisis in the middle of the campaign that kind of tipped the campaign finally in his direction, even though it was very tight in september, when the economy fell apart in september, that's when he really picked up momentum in the campaign, and there wasn't a doubt in a voter's mind that this was a bad economy he was taking over and he said he could make a difference. and that's what voters are going to vote on. not the fact of what he was handed but the fact that he didn't deliver. host: "washington post", eight questions, 100 days before the election, different factors could determine how you vote on election day, including mitt romney's running mate, also his own background and also, the issue of negative ads. speaking of negative ads, this is from the democratic national committee following mitt romney's visit on thursday in london, his remarks about the olympics. let's watch: >> mitt romney was hoping his

big overseas trip to britain, israel and poland would get plenty of attention, and it is. for all the wrong reasons. >> something mitt romney said during our conversation with him here yesterday exploded here in london today. >> there was no olympic swimming pool in sight, and mitt romney was making waves with comments he made about the city's preparations for the olympic games. >> it's a good thing the british do not vote in our elections. for romney, that is. romney's audition as a statesman is off to a rocky start for what he said about the olympics there, on the eve of the big global event. london awoke to romney's second- guessing its preparations. >> he set off a firestorm in the british press. >> criticism exploded on newspaper headlines. >> the guardian, the times, the telegraph fired off this commentary, mitt romney is perhaps the only politician who could start a trip that was supposed to be a charm offensive by being utterly de void of charles and mildly

offensive. host: ed goeas, i want to ask you about that ad but also this trend we're seeing as news clips becoming part of television advertising. first the spot itself. guest: i'm sure the dnc were able to be finally given something they could do their jobs o'clock after two weeks of watching the rnc one-up them on you didn't build it. that's what they will do as part of the process. the question question, going back, does it have the impact with the voters. not only spots like this, but the campaign spots that the obama campaign has been running on bain capital for two-months and it's had zero impact. in fact, most of the focus groups that we've done in recent weeks, where the issue of bain capital comes up, it's like who, what?

they're just not having an impact for the voters, because it's not what's important to them at this point. guest: i do think the one thing it's funny, the point you're making, more and more people are not reading newspapers, the more and more we see them in television ads, right? campaigns and independent groups are looking for validation of their claims because there are so many negative ads that it's easy for people to not believe them, so they use newspaper citations and things like that to give credibility. guest get and the irony of that is that the people that write the headlines are not the people that write the articles, and i can't tell you over the last 20 years, 25 years i've been watching those kind of things very closely how often the headline does not match the true intent of the article and what's in the article. host: barbara, good morning, republican line from western texas, good morning. caller: good morning, gentlemen. the first caller i heard, about hiding mitt romney hiding

something, well, obama is hiding something bigger that was negated in his presidency. i speak to sheriff arapao's secretary this spring and found out lately that they had a news release on the investigation into obama's birth certificate and found out that the coding system that is dictated by the federal government in 1961 is not the same codingna they used on the short form or the long form that he presumably presented to the press. and they spoke to the lady who had supposedly signed the birth certificate, a verna k. lee, and she said no, the coding is absolutely wrong on his apparent birth certificate. host: thank you for the call. this issue continues to come up. this morning, david maris

addressing the birth certificate and also his religious upbringing, called the audacity of doubt, conspiracy theorists about obama heed neither facts nor reason. guest: look, the facts are clear. it's really sort of silly when we get to talking about this question of citizenship when there's no doubt, every respected media outlet and frankly, every respected republican, agrees about this citizenship question. so the american public understands it. it's small fringe groups that has any questions at all about it. upfortly, some of them are republic candidates for congress. but by in large, there's no question about this and it's not a legitimate topic. host: steve on the democratic line, perrysville, indiana. caller: the republicans don't have anything. mitt romney, if he gets in this country will be in so much trouble, it's not funny,

because he's going to be george bush times three or four. and the president has been doing his job. the house and senate are what is obstructing him with the filibusters in the senate and the house won't vote anything that's for the people. thingaven't vetted one for the people. they've got a couple of idiots out there, the one, mcconnell, and boner, i call him, but it's ridiculous. host: ed goeas. guest: where do i start. the whole issue -- and i get very frustrated.

i differ from probably everyone in washington. this country is evenly split. it's about 42, 43 percent democrat. it's about 41 percent republican. where this concept of compromise has come up to become the be all to end all, i've never understood. we are in a great situation here, the one thing i say consistently about the president is the one thing positively from a republican standpoint you can say is he's been consistent to his ideology. even though things don't seem to -- as we would say, don't seem to be working, he comes back and he wants to do more of the same. he's been very, very consistent to his ideology. that gives us an opportunity in this country, and in this presidential campaign, to have a true debate on do you want to go this direction or do you want to go this direction. obviously this caller would like to go a different direction than many of the people that i talk to or that i deal with in terms of candidates.

but i'd rather that to be the debate rather than the debate be we have a system that they can't come to agreement, because the real reality of the situation is the president in the first two years got virtually everything that he asked for, because he had overwhelming majorities in both the house and senate. and he got virtually everything that he asked for. so it's not a matter of the president not getting what he wanted because of congress. it's a matter of after that first two years, there is a strong feeling on our side of the aisle that it's not working. you know, let's have a debate about the best way to go after makeing this economy better. host: "the new york times" this morning, with regard to the negative tone of this campaign, the president's prospect for reelection, he writes, now rests in part on one of the biggest gambles of his career, that the benefits of trying to eviscerate mr. romney outweigh his reputation:

guest: when are you in the situation the president is in where most voters have pretty defined views of who he is, both on the positive and negative side, there's more to be gained by twining your opponent and telling people the difference between your view and his view. that's really what he's focused on and it makes sense from a political strategy standpoint. host: jon connell says why can't politicians argue the real issues, why make up stuff up. for example the you didn't build that, taken completely out of context, because if you do hear the president's full speech, he was saying it takes roads and bridges built by tax dollars to get to the business respect started, he was trying to put everything in context but that became a moniker. guest: that's why i don't understand the barack obama -- because if you take the full speech in contest, before he was talking about bridges and roads, he was talking about if

you built a company, you didn't build it because you were smarter than the other guy out there. there are other smart people out there. if you built your own company, you didn't do it because you worked harder than the other guy. he actually was talking about you did not build your company on your own, so i'm very glad to take it in the full context, and it is an issue, because what it gets down to, and one of the things that's been talked about if that particular speech, is it's one of the few speeches he's given recently that he wasn't using a teleprompter and there is a strong belief, i believe with many voters, certainly many people on our side of the aisle, that it gave a real look into the soul of what barack obama really believes. and we think it's important in this whole economic discussion going on in this country. guest: that's a good debate to have. all of us, we have businesses and i don't think we built -- we built them because we've got talented staff who are educated in public schools that our tax dollars paid for, we benefit

from the roads and metro system and things like that that take us to work so i actually think taken in this context it's a good debate to have. if you believe that every business was created simply because of one smart person without the help of his hard working people who are educated in our public schools, that's one view. the president was making the argument that yes, in fact, smart people do build businesses through hard work, diligent, good ideas but they have a lot of help along the way, and -- guest: but one of the keys is there's something in those people that they were willing to risk everything to go after their dream. and one of the most interesting things is we have this kind of debate over class warfare that barack obama wants to keep taking in this campaign is if you ask the american public are you more concerned about the special benefits that the rich get or are you concerned about things being changed in such a way that you won't have those same opportunities to be successful yourself, by 2-1, the american public wants a

defense of the free enterprise system and those things that will give them an opportunity to also own a small business, also take those risks, and want to take those risks. so yeah, i'll take that debate, we'll have a lot of fun with it. guest: look it, republicans always like to say this is class warfare. it is class warfare. the wealthiest have declared war on the middle class, the middle class is standing up and fighting back and saying that every american should have a chance. guest: that is rhetoric that -- >> host: ed goeas, the speech sounds even worse. bee on the phone from virginia beach, good morning. caller: i simply had a question for both pollsters. i was wondering how hard it is to get an accurate polls. in fact, a lot of people don't

use your land lines and they use cell phones. i just simply had this question. i wondered. guest: we are reaching people on cell phones now. both firms are taking great strides to not only reach people on land lines but cell phones. it is absolutely getting harder to do what we do, but we reach people wherever they are. guest: and we look at things a lot of the public polls don't electric at in terms of intensity, in terms of the gap, in terms of loyalty, and we're doing the same thing, we're looking at cell phones. i will say, one of the insider concerns we have is that we ask a very specific question, in the very beginning, if they're

on a cell phone, is are you driving. and if they say they're drying, then it's can we call you back. so not only is it a problem of getting the cell phones, it's a problem of we have to be somewhat responsible in not talking to someone on the cell phone when they're driving down the road. host: last question for both of you, michael bocian, i'll begin with you, what one uncertainty concerns you the most leading into this election? guest: europe, the economy, a major international collapse of the economy that has collateral damage on the united states i think could pose a serious problem for obama's reelection. host: ed goeas, one think worries you the most. guest: the focus doesn't continue on what's the best route in terms of the best economic future for this country. host: gentlemen, thank you for come back and see us. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012] >> tomorrow, we look at the week ahead for congress.

we have details on a recent survey that shows 13 states cutting medicaid. richard williams, the former director of the center for food safety, discusses the role of the food and drug administration and insurance safety of food. live at 7:00 a.m. eastern. next, a house hearing on how to improve truck forecasting. then a senate hearing on the effectiveness of the 1992 cable act. after that, q&a with antonin scalia. >> the internet brings radical transparency to almost everything it touches. privacy becomes a construct. it is an unofficial construct, created by laws and institutions

and enforcement. >> until a few weeks ago, rod beckstrom oversaw the process of expanding the amount of web names worldwide. an inside look at the internet and cyber security on "of the communicators." >> in the u.s. is receiving experiencing the most widespread drought since 1956. in response, the house science committee held this hearing focused on improving drought forecasting and response. they heard from the director of noaa's drought information system, the head of the oklahoma water resources board, and the mayor of indianapolis. this is just under two hours.

>> the committee on science and technology will come to order. i say good morning to you and welcome, everyone, to today's hearing on drought forecasting and decision making. a review of the national integrated drought information system. this hearing is timely, given current drought conditions that are impacting much of the country, including much of my

home state of texas. i will take a bit of my time to tell you a story. i passed a bill five years ago. i was in paris, texas making a speech. one of my good friends said, congressman, will you be able to make rain? it had not rained in days. i said, it will, that is section 4 of the third page. he said, really? i said i just gave him a silly answer to a silly question. three years later, we had rainfall that drowned people and all of the farm programs below it. it rained incessantly day and night. i called him at 3:00 one morning and his wife said he was mad when he got to the phone. he said, hello. i said hello. do you remember the question you asked me about that bill?

go outside. i have to go through that every time i go to paris, texas now. he was a good enough friend and i could tell that to him now. we know how really timely this hearing is. we are very grateful to you all for your time and preparation to get here. for the time to help us. according to the u.s. drought monitor, over 70% of the u.s. is currently abnormally dry or worse. further, over half of the continental u.s. is experiencing moderate to extreme drought. one third is in severe to extreme drought. these widespread conditions are negatively affecting corn and soybean output. the department of agriculture reported that 80% of corn and 87% of soybeans were in the drought-stricken areas. in response to the

pervasiveness of such conditions, tom vilsack designated areas as disaster areas. drought continues to be recurring. over the past 110 years, droughts have frequently occurred in the united states, the worst being the dust bowl years of the 1930's and the droughts of the 1960's. there are those who would attribute this to climate change this year, but the congressional research service tells us that drought has affected portions of north america for thousands of years, and history expects it is an inevitable part of the natural climate cycle. in any event, debating the cause of drought is not in front of us today. the real question is how to enable state and local governments and individual