because it still works. even today, graduate from high school, work hard, and get married before you have children, and the chance you'll ever be in poverty is just 2%. yet, if you don't do these three things, you are 38 times more likely to end up in poverty. we understand many americans don't succeed because the family that should be there to guide them and serve as the first rung on a ladder of success is not there, or is badly broken. the fact is that marriage is disappearing in places where government dependency is the highest. most single mothers do heroic work and an amazing job raising their children.

but if america is going to succeed, we must adopt the assault on marriage and family in america today. [applause] from lowering taxes to reforming social programs, mitt romney and paul ryan are dedicated to restoring the home where married moms and dads are pillars of strong communities, raising good citizens in our neighborhoods. a solid education should be the second rung on the ladder to success, but the system is failing. obama's solution has been to deny parents choice, attack private schools, and

nationalized curriculum and student loans. mitt romney believe that parents and the local community must be in charge of our schools, not the the part of education. -- not the department of education. yet we all know there is one key to success that has helped people overcome even the greatest obstacles -- artwork. that is what work was the centerpiece of the bipartisan welfare reform law, requiring work as a condition for receiving welfare succeeding. not just because the welfare rolls were cut in half, but because employment went up, poverty was down, and dreams were realized. it is is 30 ladder of success that is billed with helping families, education, and hard

work. but president obama's policies underline the traditional family. it weakens the educational system. this summer, he showed us once again that he believes in government handouts and dependency, by waiving the work requirement for welfare. i helped write the welfare reform bill. we made it crystal clear, no president can waive the work requirement. as with his refusal to enforce our immigration law, president obama rules like he is above the law. [applause] americans, take heed. when a president can simply give

a speech or write a memo and change the law to do what the law says he cannot do, we will no longer be a republic. yet as my family and i crisscross america, something became so obvious to us. america is still the greatest country in the world, and with god's help and good leadership, we can restore the american dream. [applause] why? because i held its hand. i shook the hand of the american dream, and it has a

strong grip. i shook hands of farmers and ranchers who made america the breadbasket of the world, hands weathered and worn, and proud of it. i grasped the dirty hands with scars that come from years of labor in the oil and gas fields, mines and mills, hands that built america, and are stewards of the abundant resources that god has given us. i gripped hands that work in restaurants, hotels, hospitals, banks, and restaurants. hands that serve and care for all of us. i clasped hands of men and women in uniform and their families, hands that sacrifice and risk all to protect and keep us free, and hands that prey for their safe return home.

[applause] i held hands that are in want, hands looking for the dignity of a good job, hands growing weary of not finding one, but refusing to give up hope. and finally, i cradled the hands, a little, broken hands of the disabled, hands that struggle, hands that ennoble us and bring great joy. they came to see us. oh, did they come to see us, when they found out that karen and i were blessed with caring

for someone special, too, our bella. [applause] four and a half years ago i stood over a hospital isolette, staring at the tiny hands of our newborn daughter, who we hoped was perfectly healthy, but bella's hands were just a little different, and i knew different was not good news. the doctors later told us that bella was incompatible with life, and to prepare to let go. they said even if she did survive, her disabilities would be so severe that bella would not have a life where it living. we didn't let go.

[applause] today, she is full life, and she has made our lives, and countless others, much more worth living. i thank god that america still has one party that reaches out their hands in love to lift up all of god's children, born and unborn.

[applause] and we say that each of us has dignity, and all of us have the right to live the american dream. and we also say that without you, america is not keeping faith with its dreams, that all men are created equal and endowed by their creator with the right to life, liberty, and

the pursuit of happiness. [applause] ladies and gentlemen, you know we are stewards of a great inheritance. in november, we have a chance to vote for life and liberty, not dependency. of hope for mitt romney and paul ryan will put our country back in the hands of leaders to understand what america can, and for the sake of our children, must be to keep the dream alive. thank you, and god bless you, and god bless america. thank you. [cheers and applause] >> a live look here at the tampa

bay times borat 6:00 this evening we will bring your preview program, focusing on the vice-presidential nominee, paul ryan. our guests willing to the press secretary for the convention and craig gilbert, the bureau chief for the milwaukee journal- sentinel. that is tonight beginning at 6:00 eastern here on c-span. we'll have a short video tribute to former candidate ron paul, and speeches by kentucky senator mitch mcconnell and ran paul. at 8:00 eastern, senator john mccain from arizona, senator thune from north dakota and rob portman from ohio. at 9:00, the convention will hear from the border region governor, tim pawlenty from minnesota and potential -- for candid it, and mike huckabee from arkansas. wrapping up the evening will be

condoleezza rice, new mexico governor susana martinez will introduce paul ryan for his acceptance speech. all that getting underway tonight at 7:00 eastern, live here on c-span. while we take you up to 6:00 and are preprogram, our discussion from the daily briefing this morning, focusing on the 2012 election. >> good morning. good morning, everybody, and welcome. did you have a good time last night? welcome to the wednesday morning daily briefing that we're putting on here in tampa.

cbs news and "national journal" are part bring together to do this. housewe'll look at the and senate races. we have people that know the most about these subjects from our staff and a terrific member from congress, pete sessions. the new welcome all our friends from c-span who may be watching this or pri dissipating online in any form. for those who wish to twitter, our hash tag is daily briefings, so you can participate. let me thank our sponsors and underwriters. the alliance to save energy, the credit union national association, pfizer, the

property casualty insurers, and united technologies. let me introduce two -- all three up here. congressman pete sessions from texas is responsible for the house and congressional campaign committee and his job is to get house continue to be dominated by republicans. is that the basic goal/ >> dominated. -- is that the basic goal? we're asking the questions. reid wilson, editor in chief of the hot line. bill plante, white house correspondent for cbs news. bill has been covering the white house since 1981. we'll see how much he knows about congress.

>> welcome. i am reid wilson from "the hot line." democrats need it 25 seats to take back the house. do you think they will get those seats? >> it will be a long night. we will move to the center part of the country and we will win some more seats. these are pickups. california will deliver a continuation of john boehner solidifying republican control all across this country. we will win with our freshman first. we'll go back home and make the case well that what we're doing

in washington helps this country to go on a better track and a better track is job creation. it is investing in america and american jobs that we will reveal -- we will repeal obamacare. the congressional budget office said if congress does not act, which means our members will have to -- we could lose up to 1.2 million american jobs. if we do what the democrats want to do and to stick it to the employers, we will lose some 800,000 jobs. republicans are for losing zero jobs in this country. we want to keep taxes exactly where they'll are today. we will logger that case that we are for job creation, small business, and making sure america will be repetitive.

that is why we will win. >> what will the new numbers be like? are you going to have trouble keeping them all in line? >> thank you very much, bill. last time was different than this time. this is a presidential race. we will have members who win in selective areas as pickups and that's what we're talking about, the pick up seats. we will win at least one in arkansas, oklahoma, a couple of georgia we will pick up, and we'll have new seats that have been transferred to texas. these laypeople in individual places around the country. massachusetts, rhode island. when are massachusetts and rhode island good republican

pickups seats? jackie in indiana. we have a good number of people and they will be you need people. this is not going to be a wave elections. it will be an election of individuals who are better candidates with better ideas in specific seats with mitt romney on the ballot. >> how do you expect them to line up with the other new members? >> quite weel. we must-- quite well. we must repeal the affordable care act which will cost this country 800,000 news jobs if we do nothing. secondly, not raising taxes.

thirdly, an agenda that john boehner would preside over and would give us the opportunity to make sure the bills that we put on the four are read and that members of congress have a chance to amend those bills and that members of congress make sure we get an agenda done for jobs in this country, and that is what they are all about. defense talk about the and make sure you protected people that are already there. >> there is a big argument in our conference about whether we were just going to do exactly that, protect these 89 new members. guy harrison and i said you have the wrong two guys for the job. i'm not interested in protecting what we have.

we have played offense and we have to be aggressive. we put together a plan of individual districts that we felt we could win. that is what we're doing. we have divvied up the country and spend our time to make sure our incumbents that we call patrons are taken care of and we think they'll are going to win. this year is about offense and what in those new seats. i believe we will win a net 5 to 7 new seats because we are playing offense. >> everybody expected the democrats to make some advances. >> a good number of people who believe that democrats will hold the majority. look at the demographics of the country. you will see that republicans

have -- like ricky gill, of indian background with his parents that live in lodi, california. he is a new type of young gun. we have joe coors in colorado. he believes in free enterprise and the american dream. this is how we play offense. they are called young guns because they know have ideas to make our country stronger and better. >> paul ryan will be accepting the vice-presidential nomination. democrats will try to make his budget the focus of their attack. what is the answer to that?

>> paul ryan is as good a spokesman as we have in our party. he recognizes more about his own budget. there is nothing more powerful than having the architect and understanding the hard work he has put into that in explain that. paul ryan is the favorite son of our republican conference. he is well understood and we believe what he is talking about can sustain this country. we understand the democrats think they want to get in this fight. we are the ones that wanted more. we believe we can have an adult conversation not only with the american people but with the electorate that needs to see the direction that this country is headed. paul ryan has a plan that we believe is sustainable.

the president and all the democrats who vote for the health-care bill took $700 billion-plus -- we had to deal with the law and we did a budget that senate democrats did not. they cannot make these tough choices. paul ryan said we have to make decisions to sustain the system. we have tested this in nevada. as the american people learn, we will sustained medicare and bring the money back in and make sure not one senior who is 55 and older today is impacted with any new system that current retirees get the benefits and we will take care of that and

begin freedom opportunity for those 54 and below to offer them the same type of system that federal employees have today in their health care and i think that's a solid win. >> the democrats are going to make this all about paul ryan's budget. they will say that they don't think the money will come out as a result of savings and that his budget would cut in essential services for many people at many levels. are your members out there going to be able to make that argument and sell it? >> this election will be about a person who will tell the truth. tell the truth about what they did do it and what his plan is instead of aiming at a

republican plan that paul ryan will explain to them. the president took the $700 billion to pay for the affordable care act. he took the money out of senior care and moved it over. the president did not pay for positions to be reimbursed for senior care for medicare. republicans are having to deal with the law of the way it is. paul ryan make sure not one benefit, very little changes. nothing that we have suggested about anyone that is 55 and above. that means anybody currently on medicare. for the president to not recognize he has moved back that date towards bankruptcy would not be honest. neither the medicare and the congressional budget office

says the plan the. it is president's economic outlook where we're in real trouble. without job creation, we cannot sustain medicare, social security, and so we have to have a joint balance, a system that works well and job creation and that is what paul ryan and republican budgets do. >> you are going to get a lot of push back on the ryan budget. to cut taxes and not raise any revenue, he has to take money out of other existing programs. this is something they'll will throw at you in every district and everyone of your opponents will be on the same sheet of music. >> we have a job creation. we stop the 800,000 net jobs

that would be lost with obamacare. we stop the spending that is engaged in obamacare. we move back to a system not just that we have today but one where a patient and a doctor can make those decisions. you have to get job creation with it and the president lacks those numbers. the president has to look at somebody else that says, here's where we're headed and that is the congressional budget office that says we will keep losing jobs until we have job creation or the ability to reinvest in this country. democrats like to say it is all about the rich. it is about the people that pay about 95% of the taxes. we need job growth in this country and that is what paul ryan does.

>> you travel around the country and you know these candidates. talk to me about a race you are watching that we may not think is competitive. >> it is true there are a number of races which are interesting. i think jason plummer in southern illinois is a good race to watch. i think jason plummer is going to win in a seat that has never had a republican. southern illinois, or outside of st. louis, missouri, i think that is a great place to say, willie traditional democrat area be allowed a young man who is 31 years old but will elect -- that is the litmus test of whether we can get that done. that area has never had a republican. >> questions from the audience

for congressman sessions. >> i'm with "the houston chronicle." the race in texas and a reaction to the court ruling yesterday on the republican redistricting, saying it discriminated against minorities. >> thank you very much. i was in a passel, texas, last week as part of the swing -- i was in el paso, texas. el paso is a city i used to live in a number of years ago and i've watched the demise of confidence in that city in their elected officials. the congressmen lost his seat. there was a lot of uncertainty

in el paso about the kindthere y about the kind of leadership that will bring jobs not just to texas but many communities like el paso. is stretches from san antonio out to the suburbs of of pasco -- of el pso. -- el paso. it will try to be a pickup against a republican. he will win. he is a thoughtful republican who speaks spanish. he understands the hispanic what jobs and freedom and opportunity are all about. and believe he will win that race because of his efficiency. also, our party has the will to support him not only in just san antonio, but at the republican national committee, we will give him the resources necessary.

that was decided last night, essentially, we could all do this, and i have not looked at the ruling yet, but i believe it comes back and says the way the districts were drawn need to be reconfigured. i disagree with the federal court in the way they ruled, but we will work with the legislature, work to make sure there are fair seats. in the last election cycle, we picked up three hispanic seats with members of congress who ran and i believe that texans and hispanics will be interested in job growth, job creation, not a continuation in the decline of the middle class and the ability that hispanics have to build themselves from

generation-to-generation. i think it is important that we build that argument in texas, specifically among hispanics who see that their chance to get ahead and live the american dream will come for job creation, not through a government welfare program. >> anybody else for congressman sessions? >> yes, we in the back. i grabbed a microphone. there we go. >> i am a member of the news service in boston. i was hoping for your assessment of the congressional district race in massachusetts, and your thoughts on how when openly- gay, liberal republican might fit with the caucus in washington? >> richard cantor to visit before last year, and he was trying to get a reading from the about national chairman about what i thought about his race and his chances were to have lost work with him, and

actually engage with him on picking up a seat in massachusetts, which is no small feat. our party are interested in people back home selecting members of congress, not the national party. i have a litmus test, and that is to be able to get elected, and become a professional, honest member of congress where you can contribute to better the agenda we are after. richard has served as the minority leader in the senate in massachusetts for a number of years. he recognizes that scott brown, who used to be one of his members, 56% in the seat that richard is running in. the issues of job creation, and the kind of person that has ethical behavior that is important to the district.

richard is running against the current sitting member of congress who had ethical issues and problems, votes for every single tax increase, and have seen jobs the minister across -- diminish across the northeast. i think richard understood early on that i would be a strategic partner with him. we mirrored with him in our organization, and i think you will see full engagement with richard. he and i connecticut and a -- he and i communicate on a regular basis, and i would be proud to have him as a member of our congress. how would he do with challenging issues that are important to him? >> richard is interested in talking about economic job growth, and the ability to create a future for small business. i do not believe he is on any crusade. he wants to become a professional member of congress

and conduct himself just as he did in massachusetts. he will be welcome in our party, and i will be his lead advocate that correct time for one more for congressman -- advocate. >> time for one more from congressman sessions. >> my name is johnny, from the university of akron in akron, ohio, and i wanted your take on the 16th district, betty sutton. that is a big election. >> jim, as we recall was a car dealer who saw this of administration specifically do things within the world of car dealers -- the government made decisions in the free enterprise system about who would keep car dealerships, who would lose car

dealerships, and recognize that when they lost they walked away with virtually nothing. the government picked the winners and losers in the car industry. he was a person among others who took that as a personal attack against the free enterprise system. jim renacci is a man who came to congress, the an incumbent who was a well-known and likable man, but voted for tax increases and the agenda nancy pelosi placed before the house of representatives. he is running against exactly the same thing, both for more tax increases, and puts ohio and the country at risk. he is an outstanding member of congress, and jim renacci will win. we will be there with him. as a patriot, we believe he is

positioned for victory, but you and i also recognize it is a member against member race, as i had in 2004 in texas, there are a lot of other people that will come and jump in that race, and that is why the nrcc is fully prepared with our support for jim renacci, and even the democrats recognize this race will be over quickly. >> congressman sessions, thank you for your time. [applause] >> thank you.

>> we will bring guy harrison, and the executive director of the senatorial committee from the national republic convention, to talk more about these races and the national landscape. after that, we will bring up analysts, jennifer duffy and david watson to talk about the house and senate contest. grab a cup of coffee, if you would like, and we will have come up here in just a moment. >> thank you for being here. we want to take a moment to introduce guy harrison, executive director of the republican -- national

republican committee, and he says -- senator sessions things to pick up 5-to-76. is that what you expect? >> last cycle, he thought that we would repeal nafta policy, and everyone thought that was not possible, and that turned out -- nancy pelosi, and everyone thought that was not possible, and that turned out to be true. he is pretty good at predicting these races. we feel good about where the plan is. obviously, we are at that point in the election where the real ads happen, so we will see where things end up. >> on the other hand, 53 democrats in the senate, will you take that the majority this time?

>> i think we have a great shot. we hit a bump in the road in missouri, that as an offset by connecticut moving in the right direction, ohio moving in the right direction, mich. moving in the right direction, so we feel we have a good shot of winning. >> let's talk about some of those races. it interests me that in the last few months, a few weeks even, it feels that some of these races might be getting closer. we have seen polls with republicans leading in connecticut, ohio, florida. if these seats are on the table, we are talking about a 54, 55-seat republican majority, right? >> we have a great shot of winning a majority. clearly, in the next month, almost universally, polls have moved in our favor. a couple have gone the wrong way, but in senator brown's

race, he is clearly ahead in massachusetts now. ohio, it took awhile for that to move, but that is starting to polarize and the potential that is a presidential ballot. places like michigan are pretty close, but when we began, we were down by one point or two, and now we are ahead. i think there is slight movement in our favor, and the campaign will engage with all of the ads. we are in a good spot. >> when you look to the seats you're trying to pick up, how does the national race help or hurt you? >> i think it is state by state in some of these places. in connecticut, or massachusetts, these guys are running independent races. i think is very helpful to us and the campaigns are taking advantage of the atmosphere.

>> gu,y similar question, with millions of ads flying around the cleveland or toledo media market, how closely are most house contest tied to what happens on a national level? >> in the swing states, fairly well-tied. i think we will be match up pretty closely with the presidential. the presidential race is really not happening on the television set. i think we have a unique opportunity to have a mid term type of race in the fact that the congressional race will be the key race that they see. that is a great opportunity for us. nancy pelosi says her drive

back to the speaker's table was centered in california, and that is interesting because i think we will have seats in california. we look forward to california and new york. >> let's talk about some of the states that are not swing states. john boehner has been visiting delegations. mitt romney gave you money that will go to states where he is not already advertising. it touched the region we touched on richard tisei in massachusetts. >> last night, democrats nominated a woman, in arizona, a new seat in a phoenix suburb, a stay-at-home mom -- she says there leeches on society.

in nevada, you have a guy -- that is double dipping on pensions. he was one of the highest paid public employees as an assistant fire chief, making over $400,000. that is something the taxpayers want to know about. across the street, you have stephen who parked in a handicapped spot what he was a state senator. we appreciate every leg up the democrats have given us.

>> what about the governor's pick-up? >> we have great opportunities in montana, north dakota, wisconsin and ohio, but we are running against seasoned people who are running good campaigns. in most of these places come once we get the candidates -- the democrats are basically running personality contest. i think that benefits us. that is starting to help in some of these states that we just mentioned. theink we're moving in right direction. >> let's talk about north dakota specifically. this is a fascinating race. it does gone red forever, it seems at the moment there is a

neck-and-neck race. is that how you see it? >> it is a competitive race. she is a good candidate for them as made this again about personality. at the end of the day, this is a woman who supported president obama, who campaigned for obama-care. she awarded a large new york firm who is now funding her campaign with a sweetheart settlement. i think this race will be close to the end. we are ahead, i believe. i think we will stay ahead, but it will be a real race and there is no question about it. >> let's talk about virginia. i never understand why anybody polls the virginia senate race. it is always tied. who wins this race and how? what happens on election day to make george allen or tim kaine

win the race? >> one year ago, i would've said that mitt romney needs to win, and that tim kaine has to get swing voters. i do not think that is the case anymore. in a less service, tim kaine is much higher on samples. that is not something i would have predicted one year. george allen this is pulling ahead in a couple of places of mitt romney, but i feel he has done a good job and as a shot at winning. >> here in florida, you've got bill nelson, connie mac.

it seems like that race is closing fast. >> it is hard to look back and anything he as done that is noteworthy. he cannot walk around and say this is a major piece of legislation. i think voters realize that. they want people that are going to deliver, and i just run so they can join the club, which seems to be what senator nelson is up to. in virginia, ohio, and florida, there is heavy presidential

spending bill nelson is on the air with an aggressive ad talking about what he did 20 years ago, which is interesting giving the issues his son has had. i think these races are not going to get away from us. we will have a real shot. >> rob jesmer brought up outside spending and the group said of dominated the election cycle. with one group able to write a check larger than a campaign budget, how do you would advise candidates to prepare for that? >> you always have to be prepared. it seems like that happens more in the primaries than the general election. outside spending has been happening for a long time. i find it interesting that reporters have just noted

outside spending once republicans were good at it. we did not have a problem in 2008, 2006, when democrats were writing checks. it has suddenly become a surge of society when republicans have gotten good at it this splurge on society when republicans have gotten good at it. we understand that. we feel very good about helping out these races, but we value the partnerships that are outside as well. >> do you have any races where the outside spending is hurting you? >> we are pretty good about making sure we are on offense right now. when we are talking about races in massachusetts and rhode island, the democrats and not doing very well. we will have some tough races. when you pick up 63 seats, there will be defense of targets, but our guys will be

prepared. >> let's talk about what we are likely to see in advertising. anyone turns on a television, you have nothing but negative advertisements. in 2010, i feel like every advertisement was a negative advertisement. over the next few months do you see an advantage in your candidate offering a vision or should they go beat up the other guy? >> listen, all commercials are negative in side of politics and outside of politics. you make decisions based on the differences, not the similarities. the most famous-advertisement of all time is "where is the beef?"

you have to define both sides and give the voters a choice. >> the white house refers to negative advertising as contrast advertising. rob jesmer, will candidates offer for-looking advertisements, or will they be contrast advertisements? >> i think certainly some people will run positive advertisements. i think guy is right to point out the differences. >> is anybody short of money that you really need to help? >> obviously, we have a long- term incumbent in jim matheson. we feel great about her

candidacy in utah. she will have to stay within 30 points of the romney/ryan ticket. he might hit 80 in this district. >> 80? >> we had him at 74. >> talk about the candidates that spoke yesterday. why choose them? >> we worked with the rnc and the romney team, but i think it was a good mix of fresh and candidates that we have on the stage. the doctor from michigan did very well, then we had a good group of candidates. we highlighted north carolina because we will take up a lot of seats in north carolina.

the democrats have already given us two of the four, and when you are running in cease their overwhelming, i think we will get 55, 56%, maybe even 57%. >> let's talk about the paul ryan conversation we had with congressman sessions. we have heard the ideological argument. what do the polls tell you about both sides of the medicare argument? >> we have been doing medicare for one year and have the house races. there is not one additional medicare and run because paul ryan is the vp. democrats said their only

strategy was medicare, medicare, medicare. we have probably had 45 polls in the last month and a half, and in our house races we always ask the question ryan's medicare plan against obama-care taking $700 billion out of medicare, and the fact is we win that argument in every single poll. that is why we have embraced this fight so much. there is only one party that is cutting medicare, and that is the democrats, and we will talk about how they cut medicare and put it in the health-care policy that nobody wants. we look forward to this debate. we thinking people will weeks democrats will stop talking about this because they will have lost it, but if they continue on this debate, we will win more than a i think the predict today. >> >> talk about more specific races.

the two best republican opportunities at the beginning of the cycle was -- missouri and montana. missouri has seemed to fallen off the table with todd akin. let's talk about montana. >> i think he is taking on some water with his service in washington. he voted for obama-care. he voted for the stimulus and bailouts. those are starting to penetrate, which is why he went on the air today saying he was opposed. this is where we have to win between 45% and 43% of independence. we need a majority. i like where he is right now. hester was running a good campaign a few months ago, and is still running a good campaign, but the competitor is a solid plan, and no-space

we're up a couple of points. >> nevada -- i think we are going to pick up a couple of points. >> nv? >> i think people missed judge to the ethics committee issued. -- misjudged the ethics committee issue. people thought the bottom would fall out. that is not something we thought would happen. we think it is damaging to her with the swing voters voters. we are ahead convincingly. i think he is very underrated as a politician and as a guy representing nevada.

he relates well. shelly berkeley, 100 yards away from the strip, i think she has a hard time relating to people in nevada. we've had a four-to-six point lead for four or five months, and i think that is where the races today. with presidential spending, the race will be close, but i feel like senator heller is going to win. >> i will ask one more question, give me a race that we are not talking about now that we are going to be an election date could be the big surprise? >> i do not think our surprises are in massachusetts and rhode island. i will go with joe cores in colorado. it is looking very good in the presidential. it is a swing district in a swing state that is turning overwhelmingly to the right. it is yet another race for the democrats around the defensive,

where they would like to be on the offense. >> rob jesmer, what senate race are we not talking about enough? >> if you add up all of the polls. >> you have fewer polls to deal with with. i have think yesterday's poll was significant, litigating the wwe service of linda mcmahon. this is challenging, but linda mcmahon is running really good campaign. we're pleasantly surprised where we are there. i think, frankly, the main senate race we have a long ways to go. we will let that shakeout. >> why? whether we missing? >> it is a three-way race, run against two democrats.

we do not need romney's belive shares to win the state of maine. clearly, we need to catch a little fire, and that starts happening, if if that starts happening, the race starts to go, and that is challenging for the democrats. your a strategist on their side, and san diego stars going up, and our guy goes up, they are in a challenging place. unlike my counterpart, we do not oversell things, but i think the race is just beginning and we will see where we are in a couple of months. >> let's open it up for

questions. yes, ma'am. >> hi, i'm with the alliance to save energy. obviously the economy and jobs are the biggest issue for voters, but gas prices are rising and pretty precipitously. will that play, i'm assuming that continues to go up, what impact energy issues and policies will have on voters? >> i think energy policy is the under-sold story of how we won back the house last cycle. along the ohio river valley, this president has a problem with people that produce energy and communities that produce energy, and those communities are voting against him. we have greater opportunities to keep those seats and pick up seats in energy-producing areas. the president has an odd-of- the-above energy strategy which just means he does not like energy produced in the ground,

but the unfortunate part is a lot of americans make their job in that industry, and they're sick of being demonized. we feel good about the races. i would encourage obama'sex visit. i do not think he would get a good entrance there. >> this is a real head- scratcher. i do not understand. we have energy. we have an abundance of resources to wire we not taking advantage? it is great for resources. why are we not taking advantage? it creates jobs? people see the pipeline and the epa that as out-of-control. i think this issue resonates with people. i just wonder what in the hell

is going on in d.c. i think it is favorable for us. it is hard to find a state where the president's policies are more popular than the republicans' policies. >> who else can i call here? anybody? yes, sir. >> good morning. i was wondering what your take is on candidates running on sequestration? it is a d.c. term, we know what it means, but some republican candidates are really running on that. >> in virginia, i think that is one of the reasons why george allen has had good movement over the last six-to-eight weeks. i think he takes the most advantage of it and has done the best job. i think it is an important issue. i think a lot of people are

effected, and the frustration in general, the umbrella tone of the campaign, there is no reason why we could not be talking about this now. waiting until after the election is cynical. people see through it. you have the administration pressuring defense contractors not to follow the law, which will lead to employees losing their jobs. it is incredible. whether it is sequestration or passing a serious budget or entitlement reform, where is the president put the plan? there is no dispute that entitlement reform is going out of money. i do not get -- you might disagree with congressman ryan plan, but it is a serious plan. i think there is a level of seriousness with most of our candidates, and a lack of

seriousness in confronting serious problems on the democrat side. >> at do you want to add anything? >> i think he handled that. [laughter] >> time for one more. i have -- anyone else? >> bill, "saint louis post- dispatch." >> can todd akin be successful -- >> thank you for your time. [laughter] >> can't todd akin be successful demonizing the republican party bosses and will lead bleed into other races?

>> i have obviously thought about this [laughter] first, i think congressman todd akin is a good and decent man who served this country while and we should not throw away -- well, and we should not throw away his career based on what he said. that does not mean he is a suitable candidate for office right now. there is not one poll by suggests he could win, either that he has produced, or that has been the third-party, independent poll. i think that is why you see so many people in missouri, members of the delegation, the state speaker of the house say this is not your time, todd. he says he is going to run. we take him at his word. i think they're just is not a

path to victory for him right now. with regards to how other people deal with it, you know, this is one of the few times looking back where there is basically unanimity among elected officials and in a group of people who normally, frankly, give leadership a hard time, kind of the right-wing, talk- show conservative circles, which are helpful to our party but a lot of time to not agree with everything that is done. we were going to be clear mechanical. he is now down 11 points. we will not lose by 20 points, but last year he had a favorable. we will see.

congressman todd akin has done a lot of great things for the cause, the pro-family, social issues cause, and there would be nothing greater than beating claire macskill to continue that cause. >> rob jesmer, guy harrison, thank you so much for being here. [applause] we will take a short break. jennifer is to my left. two of the smartest people in politics. the only to bank people i go to if i am worried i'm wrong to say something stupid. jennifer is a favorite he has

left and building because now she can say what she thinks. is he telling the truth? >> is a problem telling the truth -- he is not telling the truth. you know, they have done cycles, that pathe has gotten harder. the easiest path to a majority for republicans went through missouri. as hot as todd akin is the nominee, it is off the table and they have to find another path. it is going to be steeper. it is still there. it is harder. i gave them a 50-50 shot before. now i think it is down to about 45%.

but they do have a great shot in some places that surprised me a little mad. -- little bit. we have been talking about races in montana and virginia now for for 18 months this is where it gets interesting. linda mcmahon is running ahead by three points to. that is real. she has the democrat on the defensive. this is a place where democrats have not spend money. they will have to spend money there. if missouri is off the table, you will see republicans try to put more places in places like florida and michigan. indiana has been more interesting. i know democrats want to make arizona a tossup race. i am dubious about arizona

because of the demographics there, and democrats have a candidate that has had a free ride for a long time that ends today. republicans have have some disappointments. it is harder for them to get there. they can still get there, but they need a few breaks. >> david, how about you? what did guy harrison say that was right and wrong, and what is your range in the house? >> i think he was more or less on target. i would take a less bullish view of the republican chances in the house. we have had three ways where elections hit a low, but it will not be partisan, it will be generational. we have 62 seats with no incumbent on the ballot in -- which is a record since 1992.

we have 36 races with major vulnerable seats. the vulnerability is relatively even. we could have between 25 and 30 seats in the house that switch hands, but then the net in the house could potentially be 0. if you have to force me to take a side, i would say democrats are more likely than not to pick up a small net, but it will not be a large shift. i do not think the democrats are where they need to be to take back the house, but it could be a wash. i would not rule out that republicans could pick up a small number of seats. reid wilson, you wrote a great

column about how we vote what we eat. you cited that in 2010, out of the seats democrats picked up, 86% contained a cracker barrel, and 26% contained a whole foods market. i was reciting the statistic before a group of young democratic professionals, and a young lady raised her hand and said are you sure you did not mean crate and barrel, i have never heard of cracker barrel. i think that tells you about the challenge. >> there was a great piece in "the washington post" with cracker barrel against whole foods, and this is why the chik- fil-a thing was so big. this sounds like 1992.

congress is unpopular. history is repeating itself. >> the other thing about 1992 is we had 19 incumbents that lost primaries, 24 that lost general elections. we could have a similar pattern. part of that is 13 member- member raises. -- races. we have already 16 incumbents guaranteed to lose primaries between the five that lost the nominations, and 11 that are guaranteed to lose in member against member raises. could we see as many members lose primaries as general elections? we have fewer and fewer

districts that are competitive between parties in the general election. the primary has become tantamount to election. >> i want to go back to the senate. over the last two cycles, we have seen the d.c. republican sect not welcome, but actively a bad thing what does it say about the republican party at large? indianaen texas and with conservative insurgents winning, and on the other and more moderate candidates winning in wisconsin, nebraska, and arizona, well, that is debatable in arizona. >> it is interesting. even in missouri, i do not think the two party movement was he guided by a candidate. when tea party activists are united, the connection makes

progress. -- they can actually make progress. they were united in texas. they were united in indiana. there were a number of places where they could not unite behind one candidate. wisconsin is a great example, and it paved the way for tommy thompson to win that. he is the more electable candidate. as somebody who has done this for a long time, there is something here i do not understand. why not do elect the ability first? sometimes half of the glass is better than an empty glass. i have never understood the desire to have ideological purity, but it has absolutely her republicans for the last three cycles. i understand the nrsc position. they have taken a hands-shooff

approach, and at some point, the tea party will realize that in terms of elections they have done the party a lot more harm than they have done good. i am sure i will get a lot of hate e-mail following that comment. a usually do. >> let's talk about some of the bonds will republican seats, the things rob does not want to talk about. he barely touched on massachusetts. he said scott brown is ahead. do you agree? >> he is a head today. i have a bias, being from rhode island, and what people do not understand this massachusetts does not begin and end in boston. the short does not begin and end there. there are a lot of places where scott brown resonates, places like blue-collar democratic

towns. the other thing you need to appreciate it is 52% of voters register as independent. scott brown is 20% of the vote, which is doable. i think there is a path to victory for him. i think they brought -- they have run a really strong campaign against some odds, not the least of which is the perception that he might not be able to win and the strength of elizabeth warren's fund raising has been impressive. she is running good campaign, but has some mistakes. so i do see a path for victory for brown. i realize i am in the minority. >> what about nevada? shelly berkeley faces ethics problems. maybe there were some on the scale for her before this popped up. >> i think these problems did

take the thumb off of the scale for her. i suspect she is now going to have trouble making inroads in the places that she needs to. she was always going to win las vegas. what she really needed to do was get north into washington county, where democrats have been trying to make inroads for the last few elections, and really run even a little better there. i will be very hard for her. and never dismiss the democratic state party. i think it will be a close race. i really do. >> david wasserman, let's talk about some of theraces that are overlooked. colorado, what are your thoughts? but not remember guy's,

regardless about what our races where people should know where which is what the candidates are? >> i would not say the situation is beer goggles ugly, but the debate has gone from beer to politics, and jennifer could illuminate that with her senate experience, but in 2010 we had a difficult election for a democrat in the denver suburb who faced a strong candidate in frazier. he held on. i do not see how after winning in 2010 he will lose in 2012, the totally since the obama campaign will be ramping up the turnout effort, and latinos are a fast-growing demographic in

the denver suburbs. some of the other races that we have overlooked are states like north dakota. there is an interesting house races where democrats have a long shot opportunity after kevin kramer, basically republican nominee to overthrow the state's republican party to get the nomination. democrats have no appealing candidate in the former state representative. if i had to take a race that is not close right now, in southern west virginia, i agree with guy harrison and rob jesmer when they talk about energy issues in that part of the country hurting democrats and president obama. is it possible letter race will tighten up if obama is somewhere south of 35% in southern west virginia? >> south of 35% in the democratic district. very strange. north dakota. i'm fascinated by this race.

tell us about it. >> you have a statewide elected official, essentially, who was ousted at -- as the at large congressman in 2010. you have the former attorney general, who was the gubernatorial nominee in 2000, and she had been out of politics. she is running as the moderates moderate. she talks about health care being necessary, but not perfect. she goes after the president hard on things like energy, especially the keystone pipeline. she is not a huge fan of the federal government, but she does not dismiss it. she talks about how to best use it. the struggle in this race is

there were a couple of million dollars in negative ads thrown at him in 2010. he is a member of an institution with an approval rating of 12, which makes people think twice. this is a much closer race than it ought to be. if you ask republicans nine months ago whether this would be a tossup, they would say it is a republican, but i think this is a tight finish. i think there is a problem because she has to weigh--- way over-perform the president, maybe by 10 points or better. >> this is one of those points where if you tell me in senate races across the country that crossover voting will control the senate. >> i think we are talking about a lot of seats like that. in massachusetts, you have a

split ticket. scott brown is going to win. you need places like that in nevada. in the dead in hawaii, and new mexico and other places. you need that in hawaii and new mexico, and other places. >> ladies and gentlemen, i would like to open it up for questions for david and jennifer. >> yes. i have a question about to the below redo races in the house from 2010 played again in 2012 with kentucky and tin-up in new york. there were close last time. i would be curious about what your thoughts would be. >> two fantastic races. kentucky 6, ben chandler, he had a sweetheart deal in redistricting. the legislature made that about

two points less republican. he is one of the few democrats left in a region that is challenging for democrats, more challenging every year. the strong republican candidate has more of a head start this time around. i would be more cautious about predicting that race then i would new york's first. on the eastern tip of long island, where tim bishop is probably the favorite to win again. i do not think things could get much worse on long island than they did in 2010, and he might enjoy a rebound. >> all right. somebody else. a question for david or jennifer? >> we should have one of those twitter scrawling screens. if nothing, i will go ahead and

ask about indiana. this is another race where i feel it should be in the likely republican column, right? it is a hugely red state, president obama will not win, but it is close their. -- there. >> he saw senator lugar godown in that primary to richard morris, but what is interesting is people associate him with the tea party, but i have never seen a candidate have a worst 48 hours a day election talking about how he would compromise with people that agree with him. the democrats found a candidate, congressman joe don lane, who is a moderate, in tune with a lot of indiana voters. i think the race is fairly even. this is one of the places where

donnelly will have to over- perform the president to win. i think you will see some republican outside money in there pretty soon. some has gone in there, but i think they will start talking about donnelly's voting record more, and try to put some light between him and murdoch before long. >> anybody else? start here. there you go. >> thank you. you spoke a little bit about the florida race for senate, but could you expand on that? what are your thoughts about mack and nelson? >> one of the things rob jesmer said that was true to his bed in battleground states the senate races are starting to polarized -- trio was that in

battleground states the senate race is -- races are polarizing around the presidential race. there has been one of the most interesting recruiting seasons. candidates would get in and get out, and that primary was just last month, so the race has just started. i think this will end up being a closer race than most people think, whether connie mack can put it over the top or not. they think bill nelson has gon tten a free ride. if you look at the 2006 race, yet -- that could be true. i did not have that as a tossup yet, but it could get there

sometime in september. >> this is the primary where connie mack decided not to debate because the premier was over three weeks before the primary was over. >> time for one more question right here. where is the microphone? and there it is. >> i will take off my texas hat and put off the new york hat, wondering if david could talk about chris gibson, and the other freshmen who won in new york that is the be in trouble. >> you have four vulnerable democrats and four one of all republicans in new york. let's talk about republicans. we have of one in syracuse. that is the most challenging race for republicans. then you have to bank tossup races in the hudson valley. races in the hudson valley.