group that, to the extent that mitt romney could get some support, he will do that by talking about the economy but he and his high unemployment among african americans. you might identify with the president culturally, socially, you might love the fact that they have broken one racial barrier in the united states. but you are still suffering. your out of a job. your home is still under water, your home is being foreclosed. the hope is that those kind of messages are the most resonant this week. host: he is author of the book >> the the real romney." some of those who know mitt romney the best say the

republican presidential candidate is cautious. his choice of paul ryan surprised more than a few. what do you read into mitt romney's choosing of congressmen ryan? have you think it is playing out this week? guest: i think it was a bold choice. i think he deserves some credit for that. not choosing the easy, safe route. i think paul ryan is an intellectual leader of the party. a good family man. a great image. he has become a young leader in the house. a lot of people look up to him. at the same time, he has a very conservative views. not just on taxes, fiscal

policy and spending. but on women's rights, abortion rights. and so i think, it is a risky choice and that that when you are talking to the middle of the country, these independent voters, will they be turned off by paul ryan's medicare ideas? are they going to be turned off by his wanting to cut tax rates for people who make the most money? are they going to be turned off by his very conservative record on abortion? i think those are open questions. that is why it is a risk. last night he showed that he has charisma and can excite a republican crowd. conservative -- one of the smart things about him is taking paul ryan -- it got a lot of conservatives really enthused about his candidacy in a way that they haven't always been this year. i think brian's speech last

night, stylistically, and also in substance, it really spoke to that group and got them fired up. -- if ryan's speech. there were many factual problems with what he said, but i think you saw, and i am sure mitt romney was sitting there thinking -- this is why i picked this guy. host: he is a staff writer for the boston globe. he is the co author of the real romney. thank you for joining us. we now go to the national journal. they are doing a series of events this week. >> a great panel of gov. romney's top aides. and this will be a good day. we encourage questions once we get down the road here. for those of you on c-span, we

welcome you here. we are here in tampa. i want to thank our underwriters for making this even possible. they are great partners and have been terrific to work with. ending spending, the property- casualty insurance association of america, and united technologies. i want to thank them all. for those of you that are into twitter and such, the sure to send in questions. i want to introduce very quickly, i will start on the right. ron brownstein, political editor at the national journal. james bennet, editor of the atlantic. bob schieffer, the senior

citizen in the crowd. [laughter] bob schieffer got dressed up in a suit today. he would rather be in his cowboy fans singing western music. >> thank you. i am ron brownstein. we do many events. but every four years, this is my favorite. in a few minutes, we will bring up four of the smartest minds in the republican party. all have held senior positions. we will talk about what mitt romney has to accomplish tonight. and what the general election looks like going forward from tampa. first, since we have a wealth of expertise on the stage, we will take a few things around for about 10 minutes before bringing our guests on. you have been coming to these

conventions for quite a while. i am interested in your thought. here on the last day of -- and i have been coming to you -- here since 1984. the convention, as we know it, can it continue to go on in the form we are seeing it today? >> i do not think so. i think there will continue at some point. i have been to one or two. my first one was 1968. this is my 22nd convention. >> do you miss the smell of teargas? [laughter] it was all of hill after chicago. that had to be the most exciting. -- it was all uphill. in 1968, my wife and i went. we had been married a couple years or so. the last thing my wife did

before we went to chicago, she went to the local adoption agency and started filling out the forms. we were going to adopt a child. to make a long story short, nine months to the day after that our first daughter was born. and the best part was, she was in high school. our daughter was one to finally put the numbers together. wassaid, well i thoughguess it not all fighting? [laughter] but i love to come to these conventions. i think we have seen the last of this. there is not enough to do any more. something always happens at these conventions. i think they are important. they do serve a purpose. a poll out this week -- i was stunned to find that one third -- 1 boater and three told our

pollsters they did not have enough information about mitt romney need to make a judgment on whether they were for or against him. the parties talk about rate introducing the candidates to the american people at these conventions. in a sense, they are introducing the candidate to a large number of americans. i still think they serve a purpose. and i hope they continue. they are just so much fun. i do not want to get personal about it but -- >> i would agree. i would prefer not to. but i agree that it will make sense for them to be more compressed. they still make a lot of sense as a focusing moment for the nation on the candidates. but also to the party structure. the party structures -- this is a huge party for the republican party and that really matters.

there are still some many of us here. one of the most interesting developments, thinking about how this might change, yesterday, the tradition of the other campaign going dark during the campaign is over. about the other candidate retreating to a vacation spot. but yesterday president obama doing the ask anything chat on redditt i thought was a sly way to reach a huge number of people, a comparable number of people to the crowd that paul ryan reached yesterday and slyly telegraph on the day that the republicans are saying here is the new young face of our party. there is a whole different way to reach young people. >> and the impact on the electorate of the modern convention. especially weather before the

export -- acceptance speech will resonate. it is hard to imagine this continuing. i have been here since 1984. it is hard to imagine and continuing in its current form. want to go to the extent of the infrastructure is doing this and bringing people here -- it is more just kind of vague -- especially in the 9/11 era, level of security that is required. i think it will be fascinating to see what the response will be during day 3-day convention. will it seem aggravated in a way? whether it has to be concentrated here in the same respect. >> with that as a present, let us slow down and bring on our

guests. we are going to introduce them as they come up. sara fagen, the white house political director for george w. bush. she is now with ddc advocacy, she is a whiz at data marketing of the electorate. john brabender with brabender cox. michael duhaime, mercury llc. terry nelson, fp1 strategies.

what is the impact of the modern convention on the electorate? and how much does the activities of the first night before the acceptance speech really affect the dynamics of the race? what did you see in 2004? >> i think the two this that really impact the outcome of the convention are the impact -- the speech we had last night in the speech tomorrow night. the speech to have on monday night are not that impact fall. it is pretty rare that the keynote speech has any impact on the convention. with barack obama, it was a good night. he did a good speech and it was a good night for the democratic party. i think what matters and what people think matters is the

presidential first and the vice presidential seconds. it defines whether the convention was a success or not. >> i agree with that. i think also a point you made earlier this year suspense of putting on a convention. and the fact that the candidate is highly unlikely to get the kind of a bounce that previous candidates received. when you net out and look at the last couple years and the declining abounds the last couple cycles -- at some point, someone will set up and say, yes, we just spent $50 million and got a two point bounce. had we figure out how to spend $10 million and still get a good day or two of coverage? >> talk a little bit -- from 1972 to 1992, at least one of

the candidates got a big bounce. now it is only 2 or 4. why is it tougher for a candidate to get a return on investment? >> i think it is the proliferation of news coverage. and the social media channels. you look at just the news coverage in 2008. the three months before barack obama accepted his party's nomination. even today in the previous three months, it is almost double. it is a combination of twitter, facebook and the fact that to confined so much information as a person. i think it is interesting, what bob said, there's so much information out there. people are drawing conclusions. part of it is the times we live in a. yet there still is an opportunity. because people, while they have

knowledge of names and impressions of candidates, they do not have any definition around them. and so, i think it is really hard to break through. and there's going to be a moment or two where one of these two candidate has a brick of moment in your likely to see the rate go one direction or another. >> i think the other thing is a polarization. that is part of the reason we do not see the kind of bounce that we used to see. the other thing -- i think that, you know the nomination speech for the non incumbent candidate is a very important moment in his or her campaign for president. and i do not think campaigns will easily give that up. to sarah is a point, a lot of money is spent, $50 million and more. but none of that money comes

from the candidate. is not the candidate's money. other people are raising it. from unlamented donations. i think candidates, especially non incumbents will want to have what they had on thursday night. i think especially for a challenging candidate, it is really important. is really the only time where people are going to be looking at mitt romney and judging how he would do and be as the president. it is his first presidential speech. i think that is a very important moment. >> one reason we do not to the bounce, we now see conventions so far toward the end of the summer. you see that because of fundraising. have more time to raise money. but when you run them one right after the other, the one who

goes first will not get any bump because the second convention will start right up. that is obviously the reason that -- of the week before. would it be better if parties put some space there? would that help in any way? >> they have got to realize, we think of this as a national event. it no longer is. to the average person, this is mercial that lasts four days. the undecided voter -- the actual coverage of the convention or everyone watches the speech, that is very secondary now. now it is all the stuff around it which people are seeing. i think that they have to find someone to bring this back whether it is either an entertaining or change the way

-- >> one thing you might also think about is whether you move it forward, you might get it out of hurricane season. [laughter] >> but the last two we had been fighting hurricanes'. >> that has been damaging to this party. i think we would be smart to think about insuring that we are not competing. you look at the front page of usa today. and the picture is the hurricanes. it is not the republican convention. that is on the side. that is a real problem. that occurred in 2008, to. >> it was 2004 when we first moved it to this time. . it was the bush campaign. it was partly about democrats finances. probably about other things. now in an environment where no

one is taking public funding, it does not really matter. >> in the past, if you move it later, the democrats cannot access public -- until the general election. there were kind of parched for money over the summer. >> this year, one of the concerns of the mitt romney campaign has been the exact opposite. they cannot spend any general election money until he becomes the official nominee. and part of the money that obama has had a spending advantage of the course of the last few months, goes to the fact that this nominating convention has been held so late. >> this is an infomercial that as part of this appeal. this is a forum that the campaign can't control. and the networks create a tv

program that they have got to cover. in a sense, the cake is baked for tonight. the speech is written. the campaign presumably feels really good about it. put yourself into his shoes. what today are you worried about? that could somehow go wrong tonight? >> i do not think you worry about mitt romney's delivery. that is his delivery. as always the same. it is going to be consistently good. here is what we are going to say, but how well everyone else. this back? i think the challenges they have are this -- number one, how do not worry as much about the biography of mitt romney a? but make sure he comes across as genuine? number 2, there will always have the balance of, they will be hearing over and over again, you

have the conservative vote, do not worry about that. but there's a difference between getting the conservative vote and moving them to be activists. they still have a little bit of work ahead to be done. ultimately, i think it is simply making this about the biography, and not making about mitt romney the being real. the reason i think that is so important, in some sense, i am a media consultant, i try to simplify this, i think the obama campaign is trying to make mitt romney into this man with a wonderful life. i think he is probably a little bit more like george bailey. i think that is the balance the need to have where people say -- this is someone who is a genuine human being who i generally like and want to get excited about voting for. >> i think what i would worry about -- is hurricane coverage. what goes on today with the

flooding? is there some loss of life? after all of this effort, do i wake up tomorrow, and my guy is a split screen with the hurricane coverage? and you lose the impact of what the condition could have been for him, and there is nothing you can do about it. >> what it deems to you guys think they have successfully developed so far? -- what themes do you think they have successfully developed so far? what you see the convention teasing out in the first three nights? >> for the campaign and for republicans, the convention needs to hopefully reestablish some of the key issues that i think the american public cares about, the economy, jobs, spending.

the spending issues are very important to independent voters. i think those things you saw being developed in paul ryan's speech. you saw it developed elsewhere. if we can get to that territory and of the on that territory for the next 70, however many days remain, then that will be the right territory for us. i think that is the competing thing that they need to have. >> can i follow on one aspect? >> sure. >> i was struck last night. about how aggressively paul ryan and the convention is trying to go on the offense on medicare. you work in pennsylvania, there are a lot of seniors. democrats believe -- white

seniors had been moving toward the republicans. democrats have felt the ryan budget allows for an opening. but they went out last night and aggressively said basically the problem, the threat to medicare is not us, it is obamacare. ad they obviously have ana d talking about the money that is diverted. not say a probleprogram that is for you. how important is it for them to it least fight to a draw? what i think there are two different elements. they took 700 billion, they have no credibility.

you know what, we are going to be the adults in the room. we are not going to be afraid to say come here is the problem. we cannot shy away. that is what last night was all about. paul ryan saying it is a ticking time bomb. i do think the american people are ready for that conversation because they get it. but at the same time, they do not want to be on their heels the funding that they are not -- pretending that they are not interested. why are you listening to them? >> it is somewhat complicated. he was the first guy who was willing to stand up and say, this is a big problem. we have got to deal with it. i am willing to take significant political risk to put this on the front page of the newspapers. and people and seniors, they

understand that this is a fundamentally broken system. so i do think it is important that they continue to aggressively articulate and a fight on this issue. while they may have won two battles today, they have not yet won the war. they will have to continue to be focused on that issue. because over history, democrats have been stronger on those issues. there is, sort of an electorate -- about the democrats being better. while paul ryan has done better on at he cannot let up on it. >> why you think people do not like mitt romney? [laughter] here is a guy here, very

successful. find a family man. has a great family. everything about the guy is good. but somehow or another, every poll suggests there's just something in there that he does not seem to be connecting. is it because the obama people do find him because he could -- before he could define himself? is it the occasional gas that he has made? what should they have done that they did not to do about this? >> i will tell you what i do worry about. i worry there is a camp out there that says we are only going to make this about obama. you felt one way about the george bush or the other. and you are going to make this about kerry. i think the obama people said the same thing. we are going to make this about mitt romney. we just have to stay focused. this guy just screwed up the

economy. he is just going to make it worse. there's some fallacy in that. if you know much romney, extremely personable, extremely nice guy. i do think that matters. i do think it would be of great benefit to them if they let people inside mitt romney a little bit and let people judge them on what he is really like not just the barriers up on both sides. >> the ann romney speech was terrific. if you are formic romney. -- if you are for mitt romney. >> this i was just going to say -- i see this with candidates a lot. when the television cameras go on, there's just a wall that goes up.

we live in a hyper-sensitive society. a very good journalist lost his job over a comment. and probably did not mean anything over except being funny. but these candidates are constantly aware of the fact that there is a video camera, a cell phone, something around them, and some of them have a harder time getting past that. i think he is one of those people. i think tonight will help. but the campaign has to continue to think about how they put him in scenarios where he can connect and relate. if they do that, he is going to win the election. >> one of the popular, most popular lines from paul last night was the joke about his taste in music. is part of the george

bailey thing. about how an adjustment romney is. how do you see the packaging that we will see over the next few weeks? how will we see that relationship? >> i was watching paul ryan's speech last night. i remember when i first met him, when he was working in the u.s. house getting ready to run for congress -- he was 27 years old, i think. he has not changed a lot since then. he still looks kind of young. but, you know, i think it is interesting from my perspective that you do have a guy who is 43 years old running for vice-

president. he is a young guy. regardless of how this turns out for him and for the republicans, he has a long career, and this will do nothing but increase his influence and importance in the republican party, which was not your question. i think they have done a nice job so far with the roll out -- the roll-out. we saw similar comments about the palin impact on mccain. also palin was different in many respects, but this one particular comment was made also in 2008. part of it is that we are coming to the point in the campaign where if you are not energetic about things, then why are you running for office? it is the critical moment in the campaign, and i think they had a tough summer. they dealt with a lot of issues that i am sure they did not want to deal with, and they got very

offtrack from the kind of messaging they wanted to deliver. the paul ryan announcement was the first opportunity to get the campaign back on the right track and focus on the message they want to deliver. i think they've made a conscious decision to go out and be aggressive about it and make sure that they made their case and that they got the campaign back on track. >> in my own slight variation of the question, i looking at the polling, it seems mitt romney's problem is not primarily or solely whether he is likable. it is whether he is empathetic. with the obama community, you have numbers that pull in different directions -- in who is better to revive the economy, romney is usually ahead. when asked who cares about people, obama has a bigger lead then romney does on the economy overall.

there is a sense among a certain slice of voters that romney they understand the economy in a macro sense, but will he deliver prosperity that reaches me in my life? does he relate to my life? he works in a state and a region with a lot of blue collar voters. in the question of whether romney is a good has been a good father, does that ultimately solve the problem that has been created for him? >> i think it goes much deeper. rick santorum was getting these blue-collar republicans. they started to track what time of day people were voting for different candidates, and you could see from 5:00 on, santorum was getting this huge vote in primaries, and it was very huge in the sense that they did that. he does have to do more on that. one of the things i thought i in the speech was most interesting was who they were talking to --

paul ryan -- in the sense that they did at one. address former obama voters. it was like saying that they are in a different stage in life and it has not benefited you. so it could be in a sense "we are not your father's republican party." >> the campaign manager for rudolph giuliani in 2008, political director for john mccain, political strategist for chris christie has joined us. maybe you could jump in because you work for a candidate who has had enormous success at bonding emotionally with middle-class voters. when you look at what mitt romney has to do tonight, in some ways, you could argue that is the greatest vulnerability -- the combination of his own

actions and the obama campaign has created for him. the deficit he has with "people like me" in the polling. what can he do in his own speech, and how can they try to narrow that in the time they have left? >> i think showing who he is, and the perspective that most regular voters are just tuning in right now for the first time. during the entire convention week and especially tonight, i think people will get a chance to see governor romney for who he is. they already made their decision about whether they like or do not like president obama. what i hope we will see is who governor romney really is. i think as people get to see who he is as a person -- they already know he is competent. they already know he is someone who can handle the job as president. it is whether or not they see

more about who he is. i think you will see that tonight and see going forward that connection. >> i thought ann romney did a really effective job on a host of fronts, but i picked up information that, as someone who follows politics closely, i did not know. i had always thought they both came from wealthy families, and she did a pretty good job of explaining to people, "yes, we have a lot of money but there was a time in our lives where we lived in an english basement." i think it is really important for them to continue to remind voters of that. there is a big difference between being always rich and achieving the american dream. what they have done is achieve the american dream. i think a lot of people think they have just always been rich. >> you mentioned ann romney. going back to a couple of nights ago, i would love to hear you

talk about the governor's speech. i am interested in the contrast between him and ann romne. she got up and talked about love, and he got up and said that what matters here is respect. were those speeches coordinated? if so, what was the theory about the combination? >> governor christie's speech was his. from his perspective, that was his speech, regardless of what was going to be said. i think they were talking about the same thing a little bit differently. governor christie was talking about tough love and two different kinds of love, they were talking about. mrs. romney was talking about family, and governor christie was talking about the respect and love you get from voters and politicians being paralyzed by wanting that constant reaffirmation. that is what we need it -- that

is not what we need right now. the success he has had in government has been the ability to talk about tough problems and to really say things that are pretty tough. i do not think they are as far apart as some people who may be over analyze the thing -- maybe overanalyzed the thing. >> i think that the press has been a little too hard on chris christie. i think he was really good for .itt romney's brand just by being the truth talker, the person who will stand up and say that we are the adults in the room, and he has said it many times. these two -- mitt romney and paul ryan -- they will make the tough decisions to lead the country where it needs to go, and i do not think he has gotten enough credit. the other thing is we need more of that brand in our party.

the job of the keynote speaker is not to stand up and repeat everything that the other 20 speakers on the states are already saying. it is to lay out a vision and a brand for the party for the next 20 years, and i think he did that pretty effectively. >> you mentioned some criticisms. looking at most of the papers that get outside the beltway, outside of the insider-ish newspapers that are all talking to each other, if you go outside and read regular headlines and columns and editorials that average voters are reading, he was received very well. 90% of the reviews were very strong. you have to separate the insiders from the actual voters. >> let me ask you all -- >> it is rare when we get an opportunity to beat up on the press a little bit, so i do not want to miss it. i read an article about the

speech yesterday which i just found outlandish. a prospective reporter wrote that the speech governor christie gave yesterday would do lasting damage to his national ambition. i mean, this is silly. it is overanalysis. it is not true. bill clinton gave a terrible speech and eight years later was president of the united states. >> four years later. >> governor christie did not give a terrible speech. he gave a good speech. people might critique it for this or that, but it did no lasting damage whatsoever. people can say that he did not get enough out of it, and that is a different thing. but to say that somehow his ambitions are going to be stymied because his 30 minutes on the stage was not the press thought it should be is silly. >> i would say 20 million people saw the speech and i do not know how many hundreds read the insider articles that the rest of us read.

>> chris christie was not talking to the entire planet. he is talking to somebody in the midwest. if you are a democrat, and he is trying to explain what he did as a republican in new jersey and they are embracing it, and democrats in ohio can feel awfully good about voting for a republican -- there are two narratives. one is pro-mitt romney, and another is saying "our ideas work, and you can feel good about voting republican." i think he did that extremely well. >> we are talking here about getting to the message through all the distractions. what is the message? going into this, i thought it was to be a referendum on barack obama and the bad economy. is that still the message, or is the message now "we've got to do something about medicare?" >> to be president of the united

states, you have to have a compelling, constant vision for the future of the country. i believe this. the american people have to understand that you have that. if they do not think you have that, you will not be president. you can be elected to any other office in this country without a compelling vision of the future, but you cannot be elected president without that. this has been the big struggle of the campaign. they have not yet gotten to the point where they have said to the american people what mitt romney's vision is for the future of the country. i think most people know what he is against and what he will on do, but they do not yet know what he is going to do and how he is going to do it. that is the challenge for tonight's speech. it is my personal hope that that is what takes place tonight. it is great -- he does not have

to be like to get somebody's vote. it is great if he is liked. but they just have to think they will be better off if he is president. if they can do that, that i think his campaign will be successful because the environment really favors him, but to do that, they have got to focus in on how they will improve the economic circumstances of americans. >> in many ways, we are seeing the impact of the long primary process. typically, through a primary process and early enough in the summer, you have an opportunity to put effort -- definition around yourself as a candidate. it is absolutely true it needs to be a referendum on barack obama, but the challenge is there is not enough definition of mitt romney for him to make it a referendum. part of the reason the romney campaign is not in a sustainable way like i think it should be right now is because the primary process -- because of the fact

that barack obama has been effective in defining mitt romney in swing states, and he has to make up that deficit. >> you could theoretically make an argument that a vigorous primary that gets a lot of attention is a great way to introduce candidates to the country. in aggregate, what you guys are saying, it is a little bit astonishing that we are at this point in the campaign and you are saying he needs to tell people who he is and tell him -- tell them what his vision for the country is. are those things not already understood? >> it is important to remember that the press and people watching this intently are concentrating on today. campaign's plan from election day backwards, and there is a lot of time left in this campaign. we do not feel that way because we live it and breathe it every day. we have been watching it since the early days of the primary,

the early years of the primary, watching it and covering it. campaigns are working from election day backwards. from a budgeting perspective, thinking through the debates and the convention process, that will happen, and we all wonder why it has not happened yet. it is all coming out. this is the important part of the campaign. this is when those voters who voted for president obama and do not think he is a good president are right now making that decision whether they want to go back to him, but there is time in this campaign. >> i think both sides agree, the group you just described is the tipping point of the election. obama's approval rating has not been able to get back over 50%, but he is leading in most polls. you have an electorate that is disappointed in his performance but is not convinced they are ready to make the leap to romney. you are not in a toddler -- totally dissimilar position.

you are going into the fall with an approval rating slightly under 50%, and you were able to win nonetheless in effect by convincing a certain number of voters that one of 100% satisfied that there would be better off with him than the alternative. ken obama, in your mind -- i mean, how different is obama's situation from president bush's situation, which ultimately enabled him to win, albeit with the smallest popular vote margin for any president ever? >> i think the elections are very different. in 2004, the fundamental reason george bush was elected was because suburban women who were open to voting democrats and voted democratic often thought that in the war on terror, george bush would do a better job protecting the country. that is, i think, what pushed him over the edge. we are dealing with a very different set of issues, which

are fundamentally on the economy. so people perceive that much more impactful to their daily lives, so they are looking at it not from the view of what is best from the country but what is best for me personally. >> i disagree with that. i think that is only half the equation. one of the reasons obama got elected is there is a real longing in this country for people to feel like they are proud to be here. there was a sense that obama would pull that off and i think most people think he did not. in 2004, you guys were looking for something to rally where people could feel proud of being an american again, and i do think romney has an opening he has not taken advantage of, to get this country to rally behind something that we feel we will feel the same way we felt about ourselves as a country years ago. >> it was at the convention in

2004 that the president unveiled the opportunity society, which was sort of the domestic component of a campaign that was largely defined as a contrast on the war on terror. the fundamental difference is when you have looked at the war on terror in 2004 and the issues and debates around that, president bush was operating from a position of strength. he always was viewed as the candidate who was best equipped to deal with that issue, and john kerry was not. this is not the case in 2012. barack obama is not viewed as the candidate who is best able to deal with the economy. there is a little bit of a reversal of position in this, and because of that, it makes barack obama -- even though we are in the same position, because of that, it makes president obama's job harder

because that is where the debate will largely be decided. >> if you were -- if you put yourself in barack obama's strategist's shoes, how would you be advising him to run the rest of the campaign? >> i hope we do not have to talk about anything the american people care about. [laughter] sometimes, i am and the -- i am sort of like, "this is it? this is what the campaign is about? higher taxes?" the sure thing is i talk too much and i was going to let these other people did it, but their job is really what they are trying to do, which is to disqualify mitt romney. they have got to find a way to disqualify him so that people decide they cannot vote for him.

>> i cannot remember who said it now, but you all were talking about the vote for president really is different. you vote for a city councilman because of the issues. he is going to let the liquor stores be open on sunday or not. people vote for a president because they are comfortable with him in a time of crisis. it goes back again to this likability thing. i am thinking back -- can you all recall -- i think it goes back to 1972, the last time americans voted for the least likable person -- 1968. they voted for nixon. he was going against a very divided democratic party. like ability really is an important factor. it might not be the right reason to vote for somebody, but it seems to be the reason most people vote for the person they do. -- like ability -- likability is

an important factor. >> it goes to the people who are undecided. it is because they do not pay attention to issues very closely. they go in and make a gut-level check. "i like this person. i think he is looking out for my interests." it is a really important threshold that mitt romney will have to tonight and through the rest of the caaign in the debate, which we have not talked about, have to come across and convince enough of them that he is more than just a guy running a private equity company. >> we are going to bring in the audience in a few minutes, but if i could, i want to talk a little bit about the coalition that mitt romney would need to get to a majority. all of you have worked on races that provide perspectives on this. let me start with the first question.

we have seen a large number of minority speakers. republicans have elected a lot of hispanics and african- americans who are speaking at the conventions, but in 2008, barack obama won a combined 80% of the vote of all minority voters, who represent about a quarter of the electorate. i am pulling right now, he is holding about at that number. he is pretty close to his 80% combined among african- americans, hispanics, asians, and others. how do you rate the focus of the romney campaign on trying to improve on that performance, and what are the assets they have, what are the arguments that they have that could allow them to reduce the advantage obama enjoyed in 2008 among the combined -- all of that 26% of the electorate that was non- white? >> we do have rising stars in the republican party who are latino, and we as a party need

to do a better job of communicating on that. not changing what we stand for, but communicating in a better way, and they are making the attempt to do that. you have to look state-by-state in terms of what those coalitions are and what they mean. the high water mark was in 2004 with president bush receiving over 40% of the hispanic vote. part of it is the effort. all too often we live from one election cycle to the next, and that is a very long-term issue with our party, and it is very important for us, but i think the strides we've made in 2010 and beyond in terms of who we have elected show our party in a different way, and we need to capitalize on that. >> a very open and impassioned supporter of a comprehensive immigration approach that included a pathway to citizenship, the platform approved here this week -- it calls for cutting funding to the states, providing in-the tuition for the children of illegal immigrants -- is the party

position to emulate the bush success from 2004? >> as you point out, we have some policy issues. [laughter] that could cause some problems. [laughter] on the other side, the administration has, you know -- the other side of it, which causes some issues for the administration in the latino community, is the deportation issue. i know that is an issue that can be perhaps exploited, but the reason we are not doing better is because of policy. i supported president bush's position. i still think it is the right thing to do. the reality is that, as you know so well, if we do not do a better job as republicans in gaining more latino votes especially, we will be a permanent minority.

we cannot just because of demographic change in the country -- you know, if you look back at the 2000 election, if the president had gotten the same percentage of the vote in each of the ethnic groups as he did in 2004, he would have lost the electoral vote. every year, inexorably, latinos become a bigger percentage of the vote in more and more states. i do not think we will be able to fundamentally address the issue until we address how our party deals with policies. >> one more question on policy before bringing james back in. another aspect of this -- it is possible that ronnie could run as well among white voters as any republican challenger ever in the history of polling -- that romney could run as well among white voters as any republican challenger ever and still lose.

the biggest challenge in getting up to those numbers, and not so much the working-class white voters, who are moving in big numbers toward republicans, but it is those upper-middle-class white collar suburbanites. when you look at where this election is right now, how big a challenge does romney face among those white-collar, white voters, particularly women, on the various social issues that have emerged? contraception, abortion, now a race -- now race. do you see him on track to improve the republican performance? >> i see pulling in pennsylvania all the time. mccain lost by double digits. i have seen polls where mitt romney is dead even in pennsylvania, and there are two coalitions causing that -- one is some of those suburbs in philadelphia where they switch their vote a lot.

they are relatively moderate. they feel they can identify with him, and he is doing particularly well. also, very blue-collar democratic areas, the reagan democrats, also feel uncomfortable with the performance of obama and a willing to give mitt romney a look. that will be the challenge. like i said, they want to brand him as someone unacceptable to them. if romney shows that they can relate to one another, there is a scenario where in the final two weeks of the campaign that things collapse of the president. >> there has been a lot of criticism of the welfare act that the mitt romney campaign is running, at least in the media, arguing that it is trying to sow racial resentment, by accusing him of undermining the work requirements for welfare recipients. what do you think about that ad, and what do you think about the

charge that in essence, by having to get that high among whites, there is no way to do that without getting your hands a little 30 -- dirty? >> one of the areas where mitt romney will do very well among whites is because he was governor of massachusetts. there's a connection geographically. as you talk about some of the issues are often driven from republicans in other parts of the country, i think governor romney is someone who is focused on the economy as is bread-and- butter, and he will keep it focused on the economy. i do not disagree that president obama for the campaign will try to move it on to other issues. obviously, he has been successful in a state that is only 13% republican, and i think he will continue to do that. >> does anyone want to take the opportunity to respond to the question? >> i will. this is what the democrats and

the obama campaign xl at. you throw an issue out there and they create some type of division that honestly does not exist. look at the welfare act of 1996. cut welfare rolls in half. you have bill clinton call it one of the greatest pieces of legislation in our country's history. all of a sudden, obama is doing some things, putting out a memo which to people says you cannot agree with the thing that has been a huge success, and based on its history, here's what we think he will do. suddenly out of nowhere, it becomes a racial issue. i think there is an absurdity to that, and i still think people will buy that. >> they would not be screaming about it if it was not an effective ad. i do not think people are buying that. >> going all the way through and beyond the motivation -- because no matter what happens in this election, we are going to see a profound racial polarization.

barack obama is going to finish somewhere around 80% of the vote among minorities, close to it, and somewhere around 40% of whites, and that is just an enormous gulf that probably will be a challenge for both parties going forward in different ways. >> i think perhaps it would be, but you sort of assume in that that there is a big racial component to it. the guy one last time. it does not have to be. he got 50% -- 53% of the votes with a large number of white voters. i think it is largely driven by performance. in the audience for some questions. do we have a microphone? we do have a microphone. do we have any hands? there is one in the back. >> i have a question about

superpac's. i am sure the money is welcome, but what challenge does it pose to manage a campaign in an uncoordinated environment? >> if you look back to the 2004 campaigns, there were three or four pretty decent sized -- they were not superpac's then, but the beginning form, and i think it was a real challenge for kerry because the message was quite diffuse. you had different entities trying to take cues from the press and come up with an abstract strategy, and they were not able to communicate effectively with each other. this time, i think mitt romney has been a little bit hampered by it because much of the republican money to date has been on the superpac side with

some of the same challenges, whereas 80% of the obama messaging has been driven by a obama. it does present some challenges, but the flip side is you have got to have something out there. mitt romney is in this race today and tied today in large part because there has been so much money spend -- spent by others. >> i can one say -- i can say i was once a victim of superpac's. the problem is they have dramatically changed races. how much can you weigh in and how much can you affect a race and the campaign's share of voice is a fraction of what it used to beat? we cannot drive the agenda as much as paid media. >> he is right.

the campaign sure voice has been on the decline for many election cycles. accelerated it, made it greater, but this has been true for at least a dozen years. when i look at it, looking at it from the perspective of a politician, they do not like the fact that they cannot drive the message that they think should be part of their campaign, and i think what the supreme court has said is if you do not like it, you can change it, right? pass new laws that allow people to give them more money or give the parties more money, so the longer term question is -- do politicians ever get to the point where they decide, "i am tired of this and tired of all these people coming in pushing their agenda is?: -- agendas?" there are tendencies by third- party groups to overreach.

>> you have all overseen general elections. how important is the advertising overall at the presidential level? what is your sense of how much it matters? you are tracking visits and advertising. how much does it matter? >> it matters in a sense that it drives our media, but it does not matter in a sense that it drives polling numbers. it is an interesting question. it is like pulling. there is so much public polling that campaigns do not need to spend as much money on internal polling. they just do it because it is how you did it. there's a little bit of truth, i think, to that in advertising. >> in 2008, what was the experience? >> i think it matters less on the executive level, especially president, but also governor and mayor of a big city. you are focused more on the

issues at a different level. in a presidential, there are so many other forces at play. >> we are passed $1 billion in television advertising already. -- we are past $1 billion. in a close election, everything matters, but at the presidential in -- presidential level, how important money will that be? >> i think we should just make the ads and send them to reporters. [laughter] >> all the buyers are very angry at me right now. >> wanting a was on the 2008 general election was how much president obama outspent senator mccain in the target states. three, four, five to one in some markets, and ultimately, that

does matter. >> we have some great electoral college minds of here, and we have not asked them about that. if anybody wants to do that, feel free. >> thank you. i have a question on tonight's speech. i think everyone agrees it is a very big one. in the advice you would give to the candidates, what kind of balance would you suggest between elements of biography, general principles, and very specific, targeted announcements in a speech like tonight's? thanks. >> i think the biography part needs to be something that illustrates a bigger point. let me tell you, i was born, here is everything that happened , close quote, does not work.

he has to let people into his heart and mind a little bit and let people make the judgment about him. the second thing is i really think he has to rally people to say, "this guy is going to take us some place as a country. this guy is going to impact me personally." all these things that obama has not done. if it simply becomes an hour- long biography where he tries to defend himself on bain capital and everything else, i think that is not the way to go. >> i think what we most importantly need in addition to the human side to this is something new. there has not really been -- i am sure the romney campaign would disagree with this because they are constantly out giving speeches and announcing things, but there has not been anything new from a policy perspective that has really broken through in the last many months. mitt romney sometimes gets criticized for having this 59-

point plan. he has to boil it down to two or three things that resonate and feel like they are new. some of it might be about medicare, but it has to feel like it is new. domestic policy is most likely where you would see that, yes. >> question over here? >> thank you. in 2008, we saw the young electorate come out. will mitt romney hit that target? will that age show up to vote this time? >> i think that -- i do not think we will have the youth turned out we had in 2008. when you look at polling, it is clear that they returned to a less enthusiastic place when it comes to voting. they suffer from some of the economic policies in the

administration as well. i do not expect we will see the turn out we saw last time. that will be somewhat of a problem for the obama coalition that they will have to address by either getting it elsewhere or through other methods. >> why do you think that is? >> i think there's economic policy issues. that community, that demographic was very impacted by the war in iraq and afghanistan. if i recall correctly, i think in 2004, we won the youth vote marginally, and since then, it has become a tougher and tougher demographic for republicans as well, but in the environment we had in 2008, one, they are a pretty dim -- democratic demographic in the first place. two, there were high levels of intensity. this time, we just do not see that. that intensity is not as strong.

>> in 2008, obama was a movement. now he is a candidate. there is less enthusiasm for a candidate. >> the simple fact is when we are talking about that demographic or any other, he has not been a very good president. people expected a lot more from him. he has not been very good at the job. i think you talk about the connection that the president had in 2008 in terms of people feeling they knew him. i think when he speaks, it could damage him. his greatest strength had -- could turn out to be his greatest weakness. i really think it could potentially backfire. >> we have a question over here, and i have a question i want to ask the panel before we head out. >> how many voters do you think will decide this election in how many states? and do the campaigns already

have their e-mail addresses? [laughter] >> they should have their e-mail addresses. i think it will be a very narrow electorate, and it will come down to probably, at most, nine states. probably five. in the states, probably 6% to 8% is up for grabs right now. >> i think you will see states decided by tens of thousands of votes, maybe less than 10,000 in some of the states. this is very close to coming down to the wire. >> are you recommending door-to- door? >> mitt romney was ahead by two, but only two votes, not to% -- no 2% -- not 2% in the congressional poll.

>> we have three great fields, organizers, thinkers. if the race stays close, as we all expect it will, what are the handful of states, the very small group of states that you think ultimately will decide it? can you pick the one state you think is the single state most likely to vote for the winner? in other words, the person who wins that state is most likely to win? >> i think there are certain states that the president one last time that normally republicans carry that i think will win back. i think we are sitting in a hugely important state. florida, i think, was the biggest which in 2008, and i think it is very important to win florida. it is obviously -- ohio is another one, but i think we are sitting in a hugely important state right now. >> i think it is ohio. it is been surprising to me given the economy, that obama seems to be performing a little bit better their consistently

than i would expect him to. ohio is always a key state, but i do think it might be -- it always plays an important role, but it might be the decisive state. >> why is that? >> i do not know. it is interesting when you look at the polling in the senate race as well, there you have a candidate -- a democratic incumbent who has consistently voted on the obama agenda, which is not an agenda that is, i would say, all that popular in ohio, but he also seems to be performing well, and i have not put my finger yet on what the answer is to why ohio seems to be having a slight tick up for democrats in an environment where they should have a slight tick down. >> i would also keep an eye on states like wisconsin, michigan,

pennsylvania to see if they stay competitive. if they trend and stay competitive, i think that at least it shows that there is something dramatic happening reverses the 2008 election. >> if the last day of the campaign is a close election, where are the last two places the romney and obama planes stopped? >> that is a great question. as a campaign operas have, i would be pushing for three stops. [laughter] at least one more place. i would say columbus and des moines. i would say that ohio is important, but as a nod to terry and my home state, it represents a place for obama where if he cannot win, he will not win

ohio. there was such a hope and a belief in him, and if he cannot turn that state back in his favor, he will miss some of the others. >> that is the same for both of them? columbus and des moines? >> i think you have to put virginia in there as well for obama and the hampton roads. >> listen, you guys are very great. thank you for joining us. any thoughts about what you have heard? >> i have learned a lot today. i will watch new mexico. i found out something i never know in santa fe -- new mexico has gone with the winner every year since its existence except in 1976 when it went for gerald ford against jimmy carter.

maybe everybody knew that, but i never knew that, so i am keeping my eye on new mexico. >> thank you guys very much. you were great. >> thanks for joining me. you have been a terrific panel. we will see you again in four years. thank you all for watching. >> "national journal" live down in tampa. we are bringing you the events unfolding live in tampa as the republican convention continues today. you can see a shot there of the tampa bay times forum where speeches will convict medicaments this evening. we would like to get your phone calls, tweets, and e-mails. -- the tampa bay times for more speeches will commence this evening. you can call in.

you can also join the conversation on facebook or send us a tweak -- tweet, and we can share that on the air. we are also using a special twitter-tag this week -- #cspanrnc. looking ahead, c-span is bringing live gavel-to-gavel coverage of the convention, and things get under way at 7:00 tonight until about 11:00 eastern time. you can see the prior day's events there in our convention scheduled. this the last nine of the republican national convention. mitt romney will be last to speak. he will be introduced by senator marco rubio of florida. then he makes his acceptance speech. let's look at some coverage of mitt romney heading into this

night. reporting from there, a writer of the "washington times," says that mitt romney's strategist ignited a firestorm in march when he suggested that the candidate put the etch-a-sketch away. this is mr. romney has been anything but a conservative turn cut and has kept to his primary positions, no matter how controversial on everything from domestic to foreign policy. what do you think? let's get to the phones. a caller in new mexico joins us now. caller: i am concerned

primarily -- well, i have been listening to the program all morning, and so many people called in with the this deep expression of fear in their voices -- with this deep expression of fear in their voices and comments about how everyone at the convention is just a liar and everyone who has spoken there is just a liar. there are so many people that are being driven by irrational fear and this division that it really worries me a lot. i wish that i could somehow or other appreciate that -- i appreciate you have people call in and give their opinions, and there is no way they tell them to be rational, but at the same time, it is a real worry to me that they just do not think about a way of debating these questions rather than just accusing it -- making wild accusations and expressing great fear.

host: let's go to our independent caller in rome, georgia. what do you have to share with us this morning? caller: four years ago -- i have always been independent, and i had high hopes for the obama election. we thought everything was going to come up peachy and rosie -- rosy. in our area, it has been a disaster. host: how so? caller: "how so?" we have lost probably 20 manufacturing plants. the unemployment rate is over 9%. we have had personal friends who have had their houses foreclosed, who have had to go bankrupt. and all the promises that were made that have been broken.

i just think we need to go in a different direction. i am going to go with mr. romney. i think he is the best choice for getting us out of this mess and bringing us back to where we were when i was young. host: what do you think mitt romney should say tonight during his speech? caller: i think he should spell out what has happened in the last four years and be specific on what he intends to do for the next four years. host: all right, looks like a tweet coming in -- most small- business owners see nothing in helps ideas that will them. he does not understand the situation. using hatchback # -- hash tag

#cspanwj is the best way to get your tweets to us. > caller: -- caller: my first comment is working together and get people together. that is my first comment. emmett two, romney wants to be leader of this country. he wants to govern people. all people. -- number two, romney wants to be leader of this country. tell the truth. do not tell a story. tell the truth. that is my comment for the day. host: columbus, ohio, carol is a republican. have you been watching a lot of the convention so far? what do you think about how things are going? caller: i think these speeches have been great. i think they are on target. there is only one comment i have

to make, and that is the total look of our country, the united states of america, becoming the united states of the world, which is under the previous -- i should not say previous -- the current administration. there is a deep feeling that we need to downsize the united states to the rest of the world. we are a good leader. we have done well. i think we should continue to maintain that leadership, and i think that mr. romney has the skills and the desire and the knowledge to be able to keep our country safe and moving forward. host: we will be hearing more speeches tonight starting at 7:00 eastern time. a representative from florida

takes to the stage. other speakers include newt gingrich and craig romney, son of mitt romney. let's look at an article from the "washington post" looking forward to the speeches tonight. the author reflects on the speeches that have come so far.

chris christie has fought against him and said that is not true. the story goes on to say -- it says, cassette and it allowed me to be able to let ann romney talk about mitt romney the person."

that is the critique of the republican convention speeches thus far. what do you think about the speeches? what are you looking to hear from governor romney as he speaks this evening? republican in indianapolis, good morning. caller: good morning. i think he is going to do fine. i expect his wife will be fine. she was natural. she speaks her mind. nobody pushes her to say whatever they want her to say. he is a good guy. you should trust him. i think he did good. everything was perfect last night. they did everything to destroy the republicans. caller: i have a comment and a question. i heard talk this morning about iran, and -- ayn rand, the

philosopher, and paul ryan said the same thing. this woman is an atheist. they believe in her philosophy, and they lie to the people. how can we believe these people if we are dealing with this thinking and that philosophy? also, he is lying because he said -- paul ryan talked about the plant-closing in wisconsin, and it was before obama took office. i do not see how republicans can believe these people when they lie in your face. think about that, republicans. host: you were mentioning comments that were made at an

event that c-span broadcasts, talking about the author ayn rand. have you ever read anything she has written? are you still with us? he was mentioning the author that congressman paul ryan has talked about in the past. let's go to a caller from connecticut on the democrats' line. caller: i just want to ask a question. i mentioned it to the young lady i spoke to earlier. what does mr. romney plan to do to cure all these evils with the economy? i looked at what is going on since before mr. obama has -- since mr. obama got in. i looked at what happened before. we will not talk about what he should have done and what he promised and all that stuff, but i want to understand what mr. romney is going to do to make everything going -- go away, to make this all happened and in

four years. all i hear is the same thing -- "we will straighten up the economy." always talking about what he is going to do but never talking about how he will do it. >> the gop convention floor, the washington post -- the "washington post" looks at where the delegates are seated, what kind of access they have, and who is getting favored. you can see the stage and all the delegates, where they are seated. romney's home state, massachusetts where he was governor, and it has been a quarter-century since the republican won the state, -- one michigan, the campaign considers it up for grabs -- although it has been a quarter century since a republican one -- won michigan. back in 2008, barack obama me