>> let's understand what they are saying. if they do not make a deal, they are raising taxes on all of their constituents. >> yes, but two years ago, and i was very involved in those discussions, the president's focus was also on the deficit. but the president also said, look, given where we are in terms of other things and the i am going to agree to compromise on this issue. i think everyone recognizes that we need to get the economy moving. part of the strategy has to be getting serious about the long- term deficit. what he is proposing is the kind of mix and balance that these bipartisan groups have proposed. if you try to reduce the deficit without asking the high income earners to put in one more penny, again, the math.

you are going to hit everybody else harder. you are going to require seniors to pay more for medicare. you are going to require middle income taxpayers to pay for medicare all because of this theory which has been a proven failure in real world that tax cuts for the top will trickle- down. president clinton is speaking tonight. what i would argue, you look at the president's plan, it is a 21st century model of what president clinton did. he invested in the middle class. he invested in education. he invested in things that helped power the economy. he took a balanced approach to reducing the deficit. he made cuts. what happened at? 22 million jobs were created and we balance the budget.

we saw what happens when you take a balanced approach. we also saw what happens when you apply the romney/ryan formula of tax folks were people like mitt romney. it did not work. it crashed the economy. the deficit went up. >> thank you so much for taking this time. >> we will take a quick break and be right back.

>> a back and ask everyone to take their seats. for our next panel to come up, please. we will get started again. thank you. just a reminder that the microphones are one directional. you're going to need to keep them pretty close to you when

you speak. back to you. >> we have some breaking news by the way. the president obama pose a speech will move inside tomorrow because of the weather we have had. if you had tickets for the stadium, a check and see how this translates to the arena. guy cecil welcome the and robby moook. they follow the senate races closer than anyone. welspun here it we will start off with the same question. -- we will start off with the same question. what is the mood like for these candidates? >> from the house perspective, august has been an abysmal month. mitt romney, i keep saying he has been our best donor. the gift he gave us and paul ryan's nomination was nothing

that money could buy. we absolutely have momentum right now between the rise in nomination that nationalized this issue while giving tax breaks to millionaires, people know what you're talking about. then we had todd akin that reminded the country that is the party that wants to redefine rape. it will be helpful to us in suburban districts. the contrast will be clear. we have republicans gallivanting in the sea of galilee. their brand is so toxic at this point that the difference between our two conventions speaks volumes. there are 27 democratic house members speaking at this convention. the republicans gave -- you did not see these guys anywhere. it was clement rodney did not want them anywhere.

the brand is that toxic. we're feeling very good this month. >> we have taken the long view of this. when we started this election cycle, we had 23 democratic seats to defend, a republican on the other side. most wrote us off and said that we should try to defend as many of our seats as possible and hope for the best. over the course of time, despite the fact that outside groups have spent over 7 $5 million against democratic sitting candidates, we're in a better place today than we were at any point due in large part to two things. number one, the quality of the candidates we have running around the country that folks in not expect. north dakota is a prime example. most folks have not moved to a toss up race. when you look around the country, at the beginning of the

cycle, most wrote stories about how the tea party was on the decline, they were not having an impact. what we have seen over the last couple of months is that the tea party is as active as ever. it is operating in a different way. you do not have candidates running again insurgent tea party candidates. yet every republican adopting the two party platform. in arizona he knows that he was no longer in favor of such reform. in montana, he talks about pell grants in the welfare of the 21st century. you have a comment in missouri which is gotten scans attention. it is moving in our direction. we expect a very close election. we expect a majority to be remarkably close. >> you mentioned akin and rebirth lake. how much can they fit into

colorado where the take a tea party candidates and pointed out to suburban women why does canada was out to the mainstream of? can you do that? >> i think there are races with the model but even better. in virginia is in a very tight election. we had 75 polls. all but 10 have been within the margin of error. over half have been exactly tied. when you look at independent women in the suburbs of washington and richmond, of these people will be turned off not just by the economic model but also george allen is in favor of a person would amendment that would essentially outlaw choice and failed in mississippi i. i do think reaching out to women and maximizing our vote in continuing the growth will be

key. >> what was the other one? >> of virginia would be the most solid. if you look a kansas city, there is a good model there. indiana. the suburbs of indianapolis and the movement in the race to where we were in 2010 is almost entirely white independent women in the suburbs of indianapolis. we have a candidate that can reach out to those folks. >> we did the same panel in tampa where your partner suggested that the redistricting will plus the candidate recruitment means republicans could pick up seats in the house. nancy pelosi said democrats will pick up 20 -- 27 seats. where do you see the house landscaped out? landscape now?

>> he is wrong. the house majority is absolutely in striking distance. we have momentum. we have money. there are 66 districts on the map right now that were won by president obama that are either controlled by a republican or new from redistricting. redistricting created tremendous opportunities for us in california and illinois. the highest concentration of our battleground states are in what the republicans call the orphan states. the president is doing well in florida. we want a lot of opportunities. we feel like we have terrific odds. john boehner himself said that he thinks they have 1/3 likelihood that they will lose

the house. i think it is better than that. they can say all they want. it is false. >> let's talk about the oregon state better not presidential battlegrounds or they're not spending tens of millions of dollars on television advertising. the republicans have started through the rnc, investing in these orphans state. the dnc is not. they're all about the presidential contest. how much of a factor is that that >> the president has been an outstanding help to all of our candidates. they have been a tremendous asset. we have been working for months now to build a sophisticated turn out operation in california, illinois, and new york. our candidates are doing an outstanding job. i feel very comconfidence.

everyday i would take the fact that president obama would win by such a wide margin over the turnout operation. we will have it there. the >> give us a couple of races where the rally in pick put something in play and how it has played out. we heard how paul ryan will change the landscape but give us some examples. >> we currently have 50 candidates in our marquee races. all of them -- it is an incredibly powerful message. our independent expenditure went up today in chris gibson's seat with an advertisement that ryan.fically named bria what his nomination did was a brand it. it is powerful.

we will not be spending all this money to say that unless we really believed it. >> the president has been trying to brand paul ryan for several years. when paul ryan was picked, but no one knew who he was. in florida, people hate the support plan but they love paul ryan. did they do not see that they are connected? >> we need some time to have this debate. he was only nominated a few weeks ago. the key argument is people need to understand that there actually was such a plan. what we found in our focus groups, people did not believe that this was possible. people do not believe that it could be possible. now they do. the important thing for us to reveal to them is the choice the republicans made. they are requiring seniors to

pay $6,400 more for their medicare but they protected tax rate for people like mitt romney. he played less than the rest of us. that is the key contract. >> so much of the focus of the paul writing plan is on medicare. let's be clear. the plan is not just about medicare. it is permanent damage to pell grants. it is permanent damage to a whole host of interest that middle-class families talk about. we have a way of segregating medicare into one basket. for middle-class voters, all of those are economic issues. i would point out particularly on hispanic voters. we focus a lot on the dream act and we should. when you look at any independent poll, education and of being one of the top two or three issues among hispanic issues. what the romney plan does to pell grant does permanent damage

for us to get some lift folks up for families that have never gone to college before. you can see in a host of races where not only focused on medicare but actually focus in on what it does to educational opportunity. >> let me go back to something you said. you said there are a shocking number of races with in the single digits. there are at least 16 races you call competitive. what is going on here? why are there so many senate races that are so close? >> it is a very big map. there are a couple of things that are happening. we have overlearned some of the 10.sons from 2006 in 2000

despite the public convention and all of the changes that have happened, it is still a margin error of race. it is with in single digits and will stay that way. comanother difference is that mt senate races have real resources to differentiate themselves from the presidential race. there are a lot of red states for the president is expected to lose by 13 or 18 points. democrats are currently leading. i mentioned in north dakota. about eight weeks ago we polled in the present was down 13 points. four weeks later, the president was down 17 points and she was up two points. our candidates are grounded in their state. they're spending millions of

dollars to try to convince voters that he is a caricature of barack obama. i think it is going to be very difficult for the republican party to convince voters. i said a 350 pound black off wearing seven fingered third- generation organic farmer still goes home every week to form his own lands is the same thing as president obama. i think it is a case of diminishing returns that all of these groups are making about our candidate. >> i do not think organic farmer was the term you used. >> and not the that was the term used. >> but stock about the ability to win over republican seats. it was the marquee race. talk about that.

we have for some grumbling about the way elizabeth warren has run her campaign. >> if i spent time listening to grumblings about campaign, i would be a very busy person. in march of last year, when i was meeting with the same reporters i meet with today, they said maybe you should spend your time making sure if john wins. he is leading every single democratic state by 15 points. we are now in august of the election year and the election is tight. is the only race that has moved 15 points. there is a lot of attention on this race. i think there are two reasons why i am optimistic. 800,000 more people will turn out in this election than turned out in the presidential. when you look at every public

poll despite to is leading, amongst the people that are undecided and in centuries, and they are for the president by a three or four to one margin. i do not care what truck you drive. i do not care how many times to talk about the boston red sox. scott brown is out of touch with the people of massachusetts. they do not believe voting with mitch mcconnell 80% of the time is moving our country in the right direction. it is only been positive so far. i do believe the race to move any further. i'm always excited to hear president clinton. i am particularly excited for folks to really get to hear elizabeth warren in an unfiltered way. >> i want to asking about advertisements.

i wonder if, at the presidential level, members of both parties say the advertisement are awash in is getting to the point where they are less affected. nobody wanted to disarm. people are turned off. is that the case in down ballot races? >> if you enjoy the geico lizard, you should turn your television off. he will not see them. if you lived in orlando or cleveland, it is going to be completely saturated market. that pushes more advertising on line. you are going to see not only television markets fell up, you're going to see online space fell up in the way it has not before. it presents a challenge on how

we keep voters in gauge. we make sure we are spending the resources on the ground operation. face-to-face conversations are fewer and fewer. i think it is important that we continually present voters with new information. this is where i think the republicans, all of their ads look and sound the same. 90 7% medicare stimulus, barack obama, testing with cocaine, barack obama, barack obama. they're running back for about 12 months. despite that fact, brown leads by seven or eight points. there is a diminishing return. compare that to the new information that is provided in ohio race, voters are learning about josh mandel.

he ran against his opponent. he got into office. he hired a 26 year-old to be the head of of is a management and had to send him to basic finance class is because he had no background. it is important to us that we provide voters with compelling information -- with new and compelling information. >> let's play off something that he was talking about. the house races sometimes have a harder time differentiating themselves. how do you advise your candidates to actually try to build a brand? >> we have a lot of these orphans states where candidates do have the ability to cut three

more. we have been really -- cut through more. our expenditure release and had this morning. -- an advertisement this morning. a woman is talking about her experience with cancer. it is important to have real people talking about the impact on their lives. i would say something he was mentioning. the republicans are using their 2010 playbook. it is not working. if you look at the special election in arizona where the air waves were tied, gabrielle giffords was in the race but the ads were all about issues. the republicans will back to their playbook, barack obama. the early part of the campaign

the plane but did not work. the difference is we have them on record with votes. we have proved. our arguments are stronger. we need to keep it consistent in a real. >> talk about a couple of races you see emerging. what will we be surprised by on election day? >> two interesting surprise races. carol had a really rough campaign last time. there are now six polls that have come out showing her a hedge. there's not been a single public poll in the last few months that has showed frank winning that race. a lot of that in new hampshire is really swinging in our direction.

because of the tea party extremism. the other one i would say is bernie canon. is being investigated by almost every single law enforcement agents on the planet. he had a deposition scheduled. he did not show up. a few weeks from today he had another one. he continues to cancel all of his television time. that is one to watch. he is in a lot of trouble. >> let's open it up to questions from the audience. if you do not mind at define herself. >> do you think there is any effect of saying wisconsin, you always talk about presidential

coattails, do you think there is potential for the republican incumbent, they get a little boost or maybe in the john tierney seat. do you see any connection there? >> specifically in the john tierney district, massachusetts is a genetically a republican -- a democratic state. that will show up. it is being tweeted right now. the closeness of that race is because of scott brown. as guy has been saying, the voters in massachusetts will come home. i think the dna of that state is going to bring those voters back to where they need to be.

in wisconsin, the nrcc and sean duffy our plan heavily in that district. are independent expenditure is up there as well. we have not seen any coattails. >> anybody else? >> chicago. former senator. question for both of you. illinois has got 20% of the seat that could switch to the house. you have five that could definitely go the democratic way. i want to know what your numbers are. the ones i've seen we're winning the numbers. i like you to talk a little bit about rich and his race in arizona where that stands. >> arizona is one of the four

state or below what we can pick up the democratic seat. one of the two that is a non- traditional state for democrats is due in large part to the power of rich and of his story. for those did not know, which was raised in new york. he spent most of the shouted either homeless or in subsidized housing. he dropped out of high school. he eventually joined the military were qe1 to purpleheart in a silver star. he came back -- where he won two purpleheart and a silver star appeared he came back and got into what college. he went from being homeless to graduating first in his class in med school. opening the first trauma center in arizona and becoming a deputy sheriff. and then was appointed to be

surgeon general by george bush. running as a democrat. history i believe transcends politics. -- his story i believe trend sinctranscends politics. it is a very sharp contrast with jeff was been in politics for a very long time. it before he was in politics he was a lobbyist for a mining company that is supported by the government of iran. he committed to a three term limits as member of the house. when was running for its fourth term, it asked why, you look at the camera and said all the clothes i guess i light -- looked at the camera and said "i guess i lied."

i think this puts us in a positive position. most of the public polls have the race within four points. when dynamic of the race is that there had not been general election ads. jeff blake had a primary which you run pretty handily. ridge just went on the air last week. -- rich went on the air last week. there's a lot of room for him to grow. we have been focused on registration and turning out hispanic voters in arizona. we will see that race stay in a margin of error rate all the way to the very end. >> talk about illinois. >> it is a terrific state. we have a lot of opportunities. joe walsh, the more he says the better we do. the advertising strategy i

recommend. robert dole is very endangered. all the polling we have seen, there has not been a lot of communicating. he is doubt in the low-40's. what is important about the tide races is you have to think about where is the push going to come from? i maintain the districts that are tighter now. he isn't not even endorse the republican nominee. very competitive. the polling has been terrific. our expenditure is up there. the communicating just started. i think we'll see the numbers move to tighten up very quickly.

>> thank you so much for being here. we're going to take a quick break and bring up duffy.

>> our final panel of the morning, we have the jennifer duffy, the senator. these folks know what is going on in tell us everything that they just said is not quite true. but start with you. what did you hear from romney? where does the senate landscapes stand today? >> i do not think he was overstating much when he said that the landscape has changed. when this cycle started, we call this an exposure election for

democrats. they had more retirements. is it the place for places like nebraska and north dakota. i think a couple of things have happened to make things a little more competitive. they recruited some really good candidates. they benefited from things that happen to republicans. olympia snowe retiring in maine is a big one. it would not have been competitive if she had run. it is now likely to be won by an independent who is likely to caucus with democrats. a couple of weeks ago we had tom akin, two words that changed everything. i thought i was the republican'' best opportunity to defeat an

incumbent. i moved it into likely democratic. i cannot see how he would get 500. -- 50%. misery is a republican leaning state now. i think the race will be close. i do not see how they can win it under any circumstances. there have been benefits. i think they're running a good race in indiana. i'm not quite sold on arizona yet. the general election is less than seven days old, one thing he said was that the candidates is 20's term and it is september. pay have a lot of work to do there. -- 20% and it is september. they have a lot of work to do there.

in the it is up to 50 5%. it looks very different now than it looked at the beginning of february. >> what did you hear from robbie? what is your sense of the national landscape? we have listened to republicans and democrats say the will pick up seats. what is the truth and? >> of both sides are claiming momentum. for the first time there is no breeze blowing for congressional elections. august was generally a pretty good month for democrats. democrats were hoping that the right to pick with do two things, should the conversation to medicare and focus voter attention to house republicans who are unpopular. i see this as a more 5 our energy during for democrats then a vitamin shots.

it is very difficult to get them to pay attention to a popular leaders in the house. independent voters, while they hate congress and are at a loss, and they do not know who to blame. they are evenly divided between blaming barack obama's party and the tea party. this is a democratic poll. in the generic congressional ballot, republicans held a 40 7% 246 is our lead. that was the only reputable ballot i have seen -- 407% to 46% lead. that was the only reputable ballot i have seen.

in a good 2008, president obama won his entire margin of victory from just 29 at the americas 3100 counties. less than 1% of all american counties. what does obama is a performance mean for congressional democrats? here's the problem. when you have such supersaturated counties that the obama campaign is focused on, house democrats are lagging behind in a lot of swing districts. obama is running up the score. in a lot of the swing districts, you have democrats who are standing. from obama a's i could see a scenario where obama wins reelection nearly but democrats only pick up between zero and five seats in the house

because obama is a drag to the majority of the swing districts. a very challenging environment. >> let's talk about the senate races we did not taught to. democrats are not doing as well as they wanted to. one has new the farthest away from democrats of things to a primary. >> wisconsin has been a fascinating race. we did have this very long primary in wisconsin where you had essentially three competitive candidates fighting the conservative vote. did the guy who emerged is tommy thompson is a very no quantity in the state. people do not see him as a very conservative. they see him as a guy who believes in common-sense solutions to did a lot for reform in wisconsin when he was

governor. that was republican's best outcome. the democrats have strong candidates. she was largely ignored, tammy baldwin. they have seen over $100 million in advertising. she's finally getting some attention out there. generallyg i've seen sees thompson ahead by a few points. they have their own primary. this race has just gotten started. >> in connecticut, suddenly this is on the ballot. >> it is interesting. i always get what is your sleeper race. my response is usually, if i

know what it is it is not a surprise. i have been citing connecticut's. i've seen a good bit of data in their that both public and private suggests that the republican linda mcmahon is running even or ahead. i think she's running a strong campaign. she learned a lot from her campaign in 2010. she spent a lot of time accepting what went wrong, fixing it. now she is running against chris murphy who is not well known in connecticut. here's the thing you have to remember. a good part of the state is covered by the new york media market. it is a very expensive state to get known in. he did not have much of a primary. it did not get a lot of attention. i think that blended the man has

put him on defenses as a member of congress. -- linda mcmahon has put him on defenses as a member of congress. voters seem to like her outside message. the performancee obam of? that is a good question. here is my question. is it going to have the impact it had not good 2010 or have voters already heard it and process it and might not have as much baying at it did then? bang as it did? >> jennifer said one of my favorite things, a sleeper races. one interesting point that seems to argue against democrat voting is the fact that in their first six advertisements the outside group had the house majority,

four of the ads have been defensive, have argued in favor of a democratic incumbents. rather than in a seat that democrats are trying to win back. this seems to suggest there are still republican targets. >> if we go through our list of the most competitive races out there, we have 21 republican seats that are in tossup or worse. we have 15 democratic seats that are in tossup or worse. that sounds like a relatively even playing field to me. are democrats going to pick up seats like joe walsh in illinois? absolutely. by the same token, under republican side we have seven democratic seats that republicans are leaning are likely to pick up including a

lot of open seats ranging from mike cross in arkansas. these are real trouble spots where the bottom has not fallen out yet in the house. there are a number of other democratic incumbents who are at substantial risk of losing reelection. there are a few democrats to cannot blame redistricting for their very close races. john tierney in massachusetts. the democrats do have to play a substantial amount of defense. the house springfield is more evenly balanced than it ever has been since 2004. >> there is a contrast between the senate democrats and house democrats. the senate democrats have done in great job of recruiting these candidates.

there are a number of seats in california where there have been some serious recruitments. >> i think if there is one development in the house race this year that really moved erase more than three columns it was not in michigan. that was a pretty remarkable exit from congress. i would actually argue that it was in california's 31st district, most not think of it as the battleground in the house. on election night, i remember we were having a back and forth on twitter about the potential for the democratic candidates in the latino district to not even make one of the top two places on the ballot to advance. when the mayor got third place

in that primary behind to republicans, it is sure that a republican would prevail in a democratic leaning state in november. this set democratic chances back. that is a seat that democrats really have to defer an opportunity until 2014. i think democrats will let a couple of seats out of california and illinois. republicans have their fair share of opportunities. those states are not looking quite as fruitful as they did. >> if there's one thing we hear from democrat it is north dakota. they are really happy that hide heidi is there. >> she is there really no

produce she is a really unknown quantity in the state. she is running -- she is a really known quantity in the state. she's running on things like the keystone pipeline. she is a very likable person. the republican candidates is a brick. he got elected in 2010. family dollars were thrown at him? -- how many dollars were thrown at him? >> something like 200 boat tours. >> it was a couple million dollars in negative ads. he is not really recovered from that. he may not.

they are going to end of spending a lot of money there. in the senate is always a balancing act. i think if you as a democrat in january what they thought they would put away by now, they might have told you massachusetts. it is still a very close race. the agreement that they reached an outside spending since everybody a lot of money. it also makes the race more interesting. >> let's talk about a couple of incumbent democrats that they are spending a little bit of money on in florida and ohio. i feel like these were less interesting earlier in the year. >> especially florida where i have never seen a republican and so contest it. -- contested. i think that the larger point

about florida and ohio is we are beginning to see these races lined up with the presidential contest. there is this polarized electorate. that has very little to do with who is running. i am going to get a lot of credit to democrats. they really stepped on it josh but and not really letting him go far. 34 years old. duty.d torch wastwo tours of he is been an amazing fund- raiser. i think democrats have done a very good job of defining him and talking about his record. republicans have spent millions on the air there.

brown has compelled his ground there. a florida i think is an interesting situation where nelson has not had a race in a while. florida has become much more polarized. he just won a primary couple of weeks ago. it was not much of one. he is a guy whose name is well- known. his father was a center. his grandfather of a baseball fame. it is very shallow. i think that the race need a couple of weeks to bake. >> let's talk a little bit of california. this seems like the most interesting state where redistricting is thrown open. in number of seats in the last decade, there is one seat that

lived. >> we have 265 elections over the past 10 years. 53 districts. in just one did a seat change partisan hands. that is amazing considering the waves we have had in 2008, 2010. you hear a lot of people say california really needed this redistricting reform. there are going to be some shakeups. we have already seen six or seven requirements -- retirement in california. now that the primary system has taken up at in california, there are a couple of races out there i think there is a democrat versus a democrat or a republican versus a republican. there is going to be an interesting question over the next 10 years. with this giving

candidates more of an incentive to reach acros the aisle, i wonder whether california's going to have a much more compromise delegation in the coming decade. overall, i think democrats will probably net two or three seats out of the state. >> i want to open it up for in a -- open it up to any of your questions. >> i would like to ask david where he sees a blue dog democrat ending up after this election. >> it is a really tough road for blue dogs. one of the fascinating statistics about this cycle is that for the first time ever in 2013, white men will be a minority of one party's caucus.

they are down to 53% of house democrats right now. based on the forecast it will be down to 46% or 48%. it is a distillation of the democratic caucus down to its core base of support. one-half of that is the new majority/minority districts you see. the other side of the coin is the diminishment of a blue dog influence in the house. none could 2008, -- in 2008, we saw 53 blue dog democrats elected to the house. these members went from being some of the most influential members of the house to after 2010 some of the least influential members because they went from being the ideological fulcrum of the house to being a

minority within the minority party. you do not see a lot of incentive. this is part of the reason why the numbers will be there in 2000 certification -- 2013. >> we have about 20 students hear from the institute that came down. the race is important to us. have you ever seen so much lying this cycle? >> what do you think about ohio? >> i do think ohio is getting closer. i think it is mostly the

presidential race. i could make a case for romney winning ohio and sherrod brown winning ohio as long as it remains close. for some of these democratic candidates in swing states, they can run a little bit ahead of obama. if obama were losing the state, they have a problem. this is one stage where outside groups have invested heavily and early. part of it is shared and brown's voting record. voting ared browsherrod brown's record. it has worked to a degree. i have come to the conclusion that dollar and outside group spends, and do not think it has

the same punch as the candidates had. brown has run a strong campaign. i do not think mandel has run a bac campaign. -- a bad campaign. i still put my money right now on sherrod brown. >> how do you see the senate races in nevada and hawaii is shaping up? >> i am making a play to go cover hawaii for the rest of the cycle. i am losing. hawaii is a really tough state for republicans. it is the president's home state. republicans have a really good candidate in linda. she is run a terrific campaign.

she has beaten her once in the 2002 governor's race. has to do is walk a fine line. this is to convince voters to separate their vote between the presidential and senate race. that is a really hard thing to do. i still have that raised in a tossup. -- race in tossup. then we have nevada. nevada is one of those states that is getting near the center of the political universe. i am still recovering from 2010. you have republican and dean heller. the congressman is shelly

berkeley. i think they both have their challenges. heller's challenge is he is new to this thing of serving in the senate. he had to get known in some places. she is well known in las vegas but she is not well known and most of the northern part of the state, especially washington county. it is a really critical battleground there. her other challenge is that she's under investigation by the house ethics committee for essentially working off regulatory matters that directly benefit did her husband financially.

to me it was interesting that they even took up this case. this added to do in july because in december in a matter what happens, she is no longer in their jurisdiction. they cannot do anything about it. one of the strings she does have is being a democrat and having all the efforts that harry reid has put into building the party in last four-six years as a tim in 2010. it is pretty well of an oiled operation. she really has to improve for standing in washington county. right now she's trailing by about 15 or 20 points. i think this is going to be a really close race. i think it will be a great race that nobody really talks about

i am kind of watching colorado's seventh district. >> this is a popular race the last two weeks because coor is running. iran has had a difficult transition from brewing to politics. i don't even have this race on our competitive list because i don't think his competitor is in trouble. i watched mike coffman, a republican incumbent in trouble. have a tier one candidate running, but koffman got himself in big trouble earlier this year for telling a republican audience that he did

not believe obama was an american in his heart. that backfired with a lot of suburban voters added into the district in redistricting. that is a bellwether race in the rocky mountain west that democrats need to win if they're going to have any shot at picking up double digits in the house. >> any other races to watch? >> connecticut it's fifth district, which is the district that chris murphy, a democrat, is vacating to run for senate. that's a fascinating race between a state representative on the democratic side endorsed by emily's list and emily rohrback, one of the last and generally moderate republicans in new england, the republican nominee. it's going to be an interesting race, especially with the

closeness of the senate race in that district. on the other side of the coin, rick berg in north dakota running for senate, leaving behind north dakota's at large representatives seat. this is a fascinating race and that very few people are paying attention to. kevin kramer, a republican, had to basically overthrow the state republican party picked in order to win the primary with a lot of tea party support. he is the republican nominee against a former state representative on the democratic side, a strong candidate who is well-connected in the state, a very scrappy democratic tradition. that will be an interesting race to follow as well. >> jennifer and david, thanks very much. thank you to everybody showed up and if thank you to our c-span viewers. don't forget to come back for all of our events throughout the next couple days.

>> that was the national journal's daily political briefing. we will be there live again tomorrow. and throughout the democratic convention. it wraps up tomorrow. there is a live picture inside the time warner cable arena. tonight the convention begins at 5:00 p.m. by the way, thursday night it will also be held in the time warner cable arena because of concerns about the weather. the democratic national convention has canceled plans to move thursday night to the bank of america football stadium. as we continue our extended "washington journal this morning now we are joined by janet marguia, the president and ceo of the national council of la raza and she joins us in our charlotte studio. what percentage of the latino vote is currently in support of the obama administration?

what percentage currently with the romney campaign? >guest: it's great to be with you, peter. the latest polls right now show that the latino support for president obama is roughly between 65% and 69% or 70%. we have seen polls showing that latinos support romney in the area of 31%. we see a little bit of a gap in terms of the support that the latino community so far has demonstrated. host: why is that? guest: i think there are a lot of reasons behind that. in particular, i believe that when it comes to governor romney, there was a lot of rhetoric during the primaries that was perceived and really revealed a move to the right by

romney on issues in particular around immigration that i think we're a big turn off for many hispanic voters and the latino community overall. when we saw that played out in the primaries, i think there was an expectation that once the nomination was in hand that the governor romney would shift more to the center or make more overtures to the latino community directly and provide more specifics on his vision for the future in particular on issues that hispanic people care about. we do care about immigration. it is a threshold issue for many hispanics. frankly, the economy, education, health care, housing, are all issues the care about. if i don't think we have heard enough from candidate romney on his vision or the specifics as

they relate to what his agenda would be. think that lack of information has created a real sense of unknown when it comes to romney. the little that we do know has been negative, particularly around immigration. president obama, on the other hand, did have a high level of expectation going into his administration. he made some pretty big promises to the hispanic community and hispanic voters. while he has not been able to achieve the promises that he made, particularly on issues like immigration, most recently it is perceived that he did put down a down payment on the issue of immigration with an action that the so-called deferred action, as it relates to a young hispanics who our call dreamers, young people who came here through no fault of their own and who have only known the

united states as their country and have graduated or have met other criteria. the deferred action has sent a signal to folks that with president obama's support of the "dream act", that this is something he has done. it has been perceived very favorably inclined not just young people but by their families and many latino voters. host: what about a backlash from that action? has there been one from the republicans or from conservatives? guest: yes, interestingly, there was a senator, a newly elected hispanic senator from florida named marco rubio, a republican, a cuban-american, who has this idea which is a version of the "dream act". it did not go as far as a lot of folks would have liked, but it really laid out a framework for

what ended up being obama's deferred action. with marco rubio having been out there in support of not the exact result of what president obama did and certainly not in the way that he did it, but the idea behind the fact that these young people ought to be given the opportunity to contribute to the only country that they know was something that even a conservative like marco rubio, i think that it lessened some of the backlash. i am not saying there has not been some. we have seen folks like congressman hunter and stephen king being very vocal. but we have not seen the backlash by and large. even though governor romney in the primaries indicated that he would veto the "dream act or did not support it, he has not said one way or another whether he would repeal this deferred action.

in many respects, i think we have seen in the broad polling among latino voters and the broader electorate in support of the "dream act," so the deferred action has been seen favorably not just among latinos but among the broad consensus of american voters. host: before we go to phone calls, janna, what about cuban voters, mexican-american voters? -- janet? is there a difference in their voting patterns? guest: as hispanics or latinos, and we use both terms interchangeably, i think it is clear that we are not a monolithic group and that there are differences between the mexican americans, puerto rican, cuban-americans, central

americans, and others. but there are, and bounds -- are common bonds. regional differences can separate us. but there's a common consensus among the latino community in support of a strong economy, in support of good education, and of opportunity for immigrants who come here looking for the american dream. there are many common bonds. how do you communicate on the issue that cuban-americans feel very strongly about trade issues with cuba, in opposition to that. the puerto rican community has a broad debate going within its community about the status of puerto rico. so there are different issues that distinguish some of the interests of the latino community. but as a community and we support so many issues that other americans support.

immigration is an issue that does bring us together and that people have said is not important just for us as a community but for the future of this country and that we are rooted in the history of immigration and recognizing the contributions of immigrants not just from europe but from every country across the globe. host: janet marguia joins us from our charlotte studio. she spent six years that the clinton white house as a deputy assistant to president clinton and was a deputy campaign manager for al gore in 2000. she is president and ceo of the national council of la raza. walter in port arthur, texas, the first caller. caller: what does la raza mean? guest: before i answer, the peter mentioned my democratic credentials, but the fact is at the national council atla raza,

we are a non-profit and non- partisan organization in many respects. la raza. we helped advance issues the latino community cares about. we have a network of affiliates in which our community-based organizations across this country that supports different services for hispanics across the country. la raza means the community or the people. it is interpreted as a word that means a coming together of people of different races and different ethnicities. in spanish it has different meanings, but the broadest meaning is that it means the community and the people. it is coined from a phrase by a scholar in the early 1900's named consuelos who mentioned

that he envisioned a future of many people and ethnic groups and races coming together. he called it a cosmic race. it was meant to be a very inclusive term. our founders used that term at the council. host: what's your follow-up question? caller: from my understanding it meant race. she added some other phrases? at from what the original thing was. -- she added some other phrases do it for what the original thing was. a lot of mexicans want to say that we already used to own this property, so we are going to take it over by any means and they don't want to follow the laws and are breaking laws.

guest: i appreciate your comments, walter. they cannot be further from the truth. the fact is there have been a lot of misconceptions about that term. words in english like in spanish have different meanings. the fact is that many detractors have tried to use that name against us in the sense that we are exclusive. there have been a lot of false rumors about what our mission is. but the reality is, walter, and i hope you'll understand as we look at our history and our record as an organization in this country, we are now the largest hispanic civil rights and advocacy organization in the u.s.. we've been here 45 years. we have done everything to help lift up the hispanic community so they can help achieve the

american dream. we have worked across communities of color and with everyone to see how we can find those best programs and best policies that will do that. the false. la raza -- the false misconceptions about la raza could not be further from the truth. there have been ridiculous statements made about the organization. if you look at our record of contributions to this country, we have contributed in every way including on the battlefield and military service and across every sector in business and government sectors and a private-sector. the reality is we want to leverage those contributions and make sure we are creating avenues for other hispanics and everyone to be able to have that american dream. i hope that you will walk away with a new understanding, walter, of what the national

council of la raza does. host: the next call comes from whitehall, pennsylvania, david on our democrats line. caller: i would like to know why la raza promotes a blanket exemption for hispanics for violating u.s. laws. reagan granted -- gave an immunity program to hispanics. the day after that law was signed into effect, hispanics started coming across the border looking for amnesty. how long will it be before we have amnesty 3? why do hispanics believe they should be exempt from the united states law?

guest: we don't. that's the simple answer. we don't believe hispanics should be exempt from u.s. law. hispanics are law-abiding citizens. we believe we have to deal with the issue of our broken immigration system. the fact is it is broken. we see that recognition not just by folks on the left or the right, not just by democrats or republicans, but by leaders of the business sector, by folks who understand that in order to have a strong economy we've got to figure out a way in which we are leveraging the contributions of immigrants. we want to find ways where we can make sure that our borders are secure and that no one disputes that fact. we have seen a lot of support -- an enormous amount of funding for making sure that. is the that i know folks want to continue to argue for more. we want to have smart borders as

well as secure borders. i think we just after the strategic about how we do that. but no one disputes the fact we should have secure borders and that we all should be law- abiding citizens. but we do have to find ways where there is consensus on how we can fix this broken immigration system. and that means the on securing the borders we have to deal with the future flow of immigrants and how we are going to handle that as a country in a way that is in our economic interest as well as is consistent with our constitution. and as a country we have to figure out how we are going to deal with the many who are here who have undocumented status. arrived illegally,ere legal but have been here a generation or a generation and pass. we need a rational way to address their presence and reconcile that with our

constitution, which basically says that we need to make sure all men are created equal and we have to find ways in which that makes sense for us to deal with these folks. i don't think you wanted generation of people living in the shadows, subject to exploitation. in many ways with the current broken immigration system, undermining our best interest when it comes to the economy. we do support strong orders. we do support enforcing our laws. and we abide by those laws as a community. we make very important contributions. we just want to fix our broken immigration system and do that in a rational common-sense and economically efficient way spirit host: how many latinos in the united states and what percentage of the electorate could potentially be? guest: thanks, peter. a recent census indicates we have well over 50 million latinos in the united states.

that is 16% of the population. one out of six americans is now hispanic. if you look at americans under the age of 18, it is. one-quarter of is there has been significant growth in the last decade. -- if you look at americans under the age of 18 is 1/4 who are latinos. i think there's an expectation that at least 12 million voters will be hispanic in this november election. for us at the national council, a civic engagement is a priority. we want to make sure that not only are we registering latinos to vote, but we look at the whole spectrum. it is important that we are naturalizing, having eligible folks become citizens.

that's when we see the full investment of the future being leveraged across the community. we want folks to be citizens, to learn english, and to be full participants in society. we want them to register to vote, to be informed voters, and to go out and vote on election day. our hope is we can create a culture of civic engagement so it's not just every four years that we see the latino vote really turn out, but that we are actually seeing that happen locally and at state and national elections. that is something we are working hard on is to seek the full and part of the latino community. host: dave is an independent in sanford and zero, california. caller: thank you both. i am a total independence. i am not a person that calls on the independent line just because they cannot get through. i'm a 25-year veteran of the

u.s. marine corps, retired. i was born and raised in sanford and doh. i love my city. -- san fernando. i am tired of the pandering. it's not so much the liberals, but we stick with one politician on the hope and change type of issues. we register our people. we get all behind them. the hard working people of the valley and the southern california area and be back a person instead of backing an idea or a philosophy, instead of backing who and what we are. we come back and panderer and we say this person is going to do this or that. every time we are disappointed. yes, we need immigration. yes, we need to fix this

problem. we have a now who-- we have a president now who as a senator destroyed the immigration path. i want la raza to be proud of who we are and not to be a cheap suit to the politicians. guest: i cannot agree with you more. i disagree that we are pandering. the reality is that we advocate on a number of fronts for stronger economy and for jobs. we advocate for a strong education system. we support over 100 charter schools and have 35,000 students in them. we have supported a network of homeownership counseling service and have helped 3500 latino families purchase their first home. we do important work in the area

of workforce development so folks can have access to skills to do the jobs that need to be done right now in the united states. we support health programs. 300 communityur organizations run health programs. on the policy side, we are working to change some of the policies. immigration is an important issue, not just for the hispanic community but for the country. we need to find a solution. we are out there advocating for a solution of comprehensive immigration reform not just because it is important to the latino community but because it is important to the future of this country. we have a long history of seen the contributions that immigrants have made. there are tough decisions that are going to have to be made. we're not saying we have a particular perfect solution i

want folks to be able to come to the table and have a debate around what should be the types of reforms that we need on immigration. nobody's trying to dictate that, but we need to have that conversation. lately it's been hard to have that conversation, dave. it feels we have been polarized in so many ways. we need to solve this issue. not just immigration reform for the sake of hispanic community but for the sake of the country. i believe it is integrally tied to the future of our economic prosperity. we have to find ways to do that. i don't think that pandering. i think it's being responsible in terms of advocating for the issues most important to this country and the latino community. host: 30% of the delegates to the convention, the democratic convention, are latino, correct? guest: yes, i have heard this

number. we have seen a very diversity and inclusiveness democratic convention. i think it has been impressive to see the array of speakers, frankly at both conventions. on the republican side we saw a number of great latino leaders take the stage. marco rubio, the senator from florida. susana martinez, the governor from new mexico. and the governor of nevada. last night we saw the keynote speaker at the democratic convention, for the first time a hispanic, the mayor of san antonio. it has been reaffirming at the national council of la raza to see that diversity at both conventions and impressive to see the array of delegates at the democratic convention. i'm not sure we could quite say that the level of diversity

existed at the republican convention,. on the stage we saw a lot more diversity than we did see among the delegates. but i think there's a lot of progress being made and it's great to see those leaders from the latino community featured, up front and center at both conventions. host: dennis in san diego, good morning. a democrat. caller: two quick points. marco rubio is a cuban-american. i am mexican-american. i have absolutely nothing in common with marco rubio and i never will. second, immigration policy between mexico and the united states, despite all the fireworks at election time, never benefits of working people from either of our countries. instead, in the end it always benefits the so-called job creators. thank you very much. guest: i would just say this. i have actually been very

impressed with senator marco rubio. i don't agree with a lot of the issues that perhaps he stands for, but i give him a lot of credit as an emerging leader in the republican party for saying to his colleagues in the republican party and for calling on the leadership of the republican party to find a better way to engage on the issue of immigration. one of the things that he has said is that the party needs to really change its tone and to be more thoughtful about reaching some sort of solution on this issue. while we may not have identical positions on a lot of issues, i appreciate his leadership and his vision for understanding that the republican party, in order to grow and to be successful in the future, has to be a party that is welcoming of diversity and particularly of the latino community. so i give him a lot of credit for that.

on the issue of immigration, whether it is mexico or others, i believe it is incumbent on us to find a solution to our broken immigration system. if there is consensus around anything, it is that the system is broken. we need leaders on both sides of the aisle to come together and recognize that we've got to come up with a solution and work with the president, whoever that person is, and really fix this once and for all. not only do we have a moral responsibility to do that but economically we know that if we reform our immigration system, there can be economic boosts to the economy in a time we could not need it more. host: janet marguia got

her undergraduate and law degree from lawrence. caller: i am an african american and i am afraid of voting for hispanics because they are so exclusive. but there are- exceptions. i don't see any friendliness toward black people. i look at the latin american countries and it's very close to apartheid down there for black people. if you could just be more inclusive and maybe that could change a lot of our ideas about this. you are skirting around the idea, immigration, we all love immigration, but it is the illegal immigration. we have law.

they're not being obeid. it's not broken. that's what i want to bring to you, if you could do something about that, that would be great. guest: thanks, yvonne. i appreciate that. a couple of things, you said that you are afraid of inclusion. the reality is, we at the organization have reached across many communities of color and with many different organizations in collaboration to work on issues together. the reality is there are so many organizations with different issues that affect all of us as americans that it makes sense for us to come together. so we have reached out across different communities of color to work together and to find solutions that we think affect the issues -- the issues that we think are affecting this

country. when it comes to education, if we see that affecting every young person in this country. it is important for us to work with everyone and figure out what kind of reforms we need in education so that every child can achieve its full potential and have the ability tmake contributions and be successful in this country. on the issue of immigration, again, i think that people do recognize the system is broken. the reality is that people on both sides of the aisle understand the system is broken. it's not just about the current system being enforced. we have to find ways where we are dealing with the 11 million people who are living in the shadows, who have been here a generation and have been contributing mightily to this country but if there's no change they have no resort to other than to continue to be underground in this country. that is not acceptable and is not consistent with our

constitution of recognizing focused who have come here, sweat, made the contributions, and have abided by the laws. it is important we figure out a way to resolve this issue, to find common sense reforms and one that will make sense for us economically. we will continue to support that. i'm sorry if you have a difference of opinion,. but i think there is broad consensus that the system is broken and needs to be fixed. host: janet marguia, we appreciate you coming on the washington journal and talking with our viewers. thanks very much. guest: thanks, peter. host: we have another guest in a moment. a professor from the university of north carolina charlotte, martha kropf. we will be talking about southern voters, north carolina voters, and campaign 2012. i want to let you know the convention kicks off in the time warner cable arena here at 5:00

p.m. that is a live shot of the arena. right down in front there are seats in front of the podium, north carolina, delaware, and illinois have the best seats in the house. the host state, the president's home state, and the vice president's state, they are right down front. the delegates sit throughout that lower bowl,. our preview show begins at 4:30 p.m. from the time warner arena. david will be on the floor at 4:00 p.m. and that's when our preview program begins. in uptown charlotte at the corner of west third and south mim is an exhibit called the american presidential experience exhibit. we are showing you live pictures

from that exhibit now. this is open to the public in charlotte. it is white house and political memorabilia. some of the things that are there include the 707 that ronald reagan used when he was president. you can walk through the fuselage and see how it was set up. if that is sponsored by the ronald reagan library. and there is a replica of the oval office. you can sit behind the president's desk and get a souvenir photograph taken. there are lincoln logs for children. white house murals. j.f.k. and jackie kennedy items as well. and their personal memorabilia owned by their children. presidential shares. a presidential automobile that the secret service used. gowns.s of first ladies' and you can watch the convention from their big screen live

broadcast right there in an uptown charlotte. by the way, the c-span campaign 2012 bus is at this exhibit as well. if you happen to be in the area, come on down and say hi to our c-span folks. and visit the american presidential experience on west third street in charlotte. i want to show you the time warner cable arena again. by the way, 15,000 hotel rooms have been booked for this convention. they are using at 250 buses to transport the delegates back and forth. what we learned from tampa was every delegate bus has a secret service agent on board for security. 15,000 members of the media are attending this. 20 miles of cable to get all the cameras, all the electronic equipment ready for this arena.

20 miles of cable have been installed into the time warner cable arena. 5500 delegates, 400 alternates at the convention. of those delegates, eight states have more than 160 delegates. california, florida, illinois, michigan, new york, ohio, pennsylvania, and texas. the republicans had about 2200 delegates. the democrats, 5500. again, tomorrow night, which was scheduled to be at the bank of america football stadium, dislike it was four years ago in denver where president obama, accepted the nomination in a big football stadium, this will be the site for there's a night as well. the plans have changed. concerns about the weather. time warner cable arena, that begins at 5:00 p.m. eastern time.

our preview show is at 4:00 p.m. throughout the day we will be live from charlotte, day two of the democratic national convention. we are pleased to have in our charlotte studio another guest. this is a professor with the university of north carolina, charlotte, martha kropf. guest: hello. host: banks for joining us. i want to start with north carolina. which candidate right now is going to win the 15 electoral votes? guest: it is a tossup. the polls indicate they're neck- and-neck and romney with the slight convention bump from last week. posted a candidates have been neck-and-neck all summer. it's going to be a nail biter, i think. right now the polls say romney is a head a little, not factoring in the margin of error. that's from the charlotte observer.

but it is hard to say. it will really depend on the excitement generated, the volunteers recruited, really trying to get the base out to vote and then some. i just don't know yet. host: when you think about the south, is this out anymore a safe redstone? guest: many of the southern states are, but north carolina is one of the state's that is a little different from other states in terms of the amount of mobility, the number of people who have moved to north carolina especially from the northeast, a growing african-american population, a growing latino population in this area. so north carolina is decidedly purple. but it is not as predictable.

it r used to be it ited. -- it used to be decidedly red. at the state level they used to be controlled by democrats, but not anymore. it looks increasingly like a republican is going to win the governorships. that will mean a lot of changes for the state of north carolina. as far as the rest of the south, florida is one of those states that has stranded democratic and sometimes is a little more purple. there's a lot of mobility into texas and some of those states. there are other southern states that are decidedly still in red ,.n the a research triangle just north of the north carolina and we are seeing a lot of changes and the banking sector. host: we have set aside our

fourth line today for north carolina voters. if you live in north carolina and would like to call in, here's the number -- north carolina economically and, what is the current situation? guest: we have a slightly higher than the national unemployment rate. but housing prices have been trending slightly higher. we were hit by the explosion of the housing bubble. the price of housing in this area and around the state of north carolina never did get as high as places like las vegas or phoenix or some of those other areas. when housing bubble burst, it was not as bad. if that's not to say there are not a lot of people who have lost money and that there are some foreclosures scandent the unemployment rate is higher here.

economically, it is slightly probably worse than the rest of the nation. the economy and the condition of the economy is one of the most important predictors for who is going to win the presidential election. host: the first call is from houston, texas, pat on our independent line. i would like to say that north carolina, i have fond memories. my brother was hospitalized at the va hospital which was here duke university. he was a veteran. he passed away,.,. guest: i am sorry. caller: in so far as the south, living in texas, there's not much unchangchange. the people here believe everything that fox and friends

says and our governor is spending money to fight everything that president obama does, along with his other southern governors. they are pitting poor people against poor people. the people here don't realize that the realize that-- the black minorities in particular make up 13% of the population of the united states. not all 13% are on some government assistance. we work just like anybody else, yet the white voters here pulled against their own interests. they are just as poor as some of the blacks. but every time you look on tv, only the blacks are portrayed as being poor. blacks canway that

be more on assistance than they are. host: professor? guest: you are hitting on a lot of issues that political scientists have studied and have examined for a long time. texas is an interesting state. a large number of minorities. when issues that's going on right there is the photo id for voting court case. so that is an interesting thing to watch. in terms of people voting against their interests, what is a smart strategy for a party is web issues. if someone may be a democrat, using some sort of social issue to nudge them away or convince them to vote against their party. that is a smart strategy and it is done. political scientists are looking at subtle racial cues that ve that allude

to the idea of there being a suggestion that many african- americans are on welfare. there is a subtle racial cue. there have been several different studies done that i have been reading about recently into what those ads will say to people. keep in mind that a lot of people have made decisions right now on who they are going to vote for. what is going to matter to the different parties in the south, just like anywhere else, is getting about the base vote, making sure people are excited enough to get out and vote on election day. in north carolina that was a problem for the republicans in 2008. there turnout was down from 2004 4. people were not just as excited. the african-american vote in north carolina is key. host: the professor got her

ph.d. from american university in washington and is the coauthor of this book -- in 2008, president obama and vice-president joe biden got 49.7%. of% votes john mccain and sarah palin got 49.3% of the vote. next call is susan, a republican in columbus, ohio. caller: hi. i watched the speeches last night. i was pretty disgusted about it, how michelle obama was talking about her husband was going to help everybody, we are going to give money for people to go to school. it just seems like everybody is

just waiting for handouts from them. , that's great that we want to help everybody, but the reality is our country is almost bankrupt. we are already. where are they going to get all this money to hand out to everybody? guest: well, the issue of the economy and government spending is a difficult one. that is one of the major dividers between the two campaigns. who -- where does the investment and the growth need to come from? does it come from the bottom up or the top down? that is a basic thing that voters are going to have to decide. but i think you also tapped into

sentiments that are out there. a lot of people are tired of hearing more of what they may perceive as the same. i think that is part of the enthusiasm gap. people have forgotten that the government is for the people and that we ultimately have a choice. i always told my students no matter what party you are from, you need to get out and vote and make a good decision. the more people like you that get out to vote, the more likely you are to change things. but that is hard to see and people don't often think that there were one vote matters. if you don't like the way you are seeing it, make sure you get out and vote. host: fayetteville, north carolina, on our democratic line. caller: hi. i don't understand where you say one party is ahead of another party by 40% or 50% when you are not even pulling half of

the u.s. because have money now all of romney's money is in a swedish bank account and nobody says in a thing about it. the republicans did not even want to dosupport anything obama tried. they purposely shot things down. it is a racial thing. guest: first, where do i get my polling results or where do i hear about them? i am reading about them and not doing them myself. pollsters take a small sample of people. a small, randomly drawn sample can be very representative of a much larger group. so there are people who are speaking for you when it comes to the polls. we take a smaller sample, 1000 people or 1500 people and we say

you can draw inferences based on that small sample of people. and so, the charlotte observer, public policy poling, rasmussen, these are all different organization that have been doing polls in north carolina. maybe they have not spoken to you but they have talked to people like you. so i don't want to belabor the whole sample. but the second question is more looking at just your concerns about jobs and concerns about what the candidates are telling you. was that what your question was about? host: she's gone. guest: the bottom line is that there's a lot of rhetoric being traded out there. both campaigns are trying to persuade the middle voter.

many campaign strategists are saying that persuading the independents is not the best strategy necessarily. sometimes there are swing voters voting. but mobilizing your base is the most important thing. they will try to focus for each other on what the other side is doing to get their base excited. in north carolina in 2008 the independents did not necessarily break on obama's side. they broke for mccain at. the big thing that the obama campaign dead and need to continue to do is get out the african-american vote sankyo young voters. that's pretty much the lesson from the exit polls. they will try to say things to get people excited and so are the republicans. -- obama needs to continue to

get out the african-american vote and young voters. host: north carolina demographics -- next call for the professor in charlotte russe from virginia beach. lisa on our independent line. caller: hi, this is my first time calling. host: welcome. caller: people keep calling about reasons obama should not get a second term and reasons why he should. as an independent i try not to listen to those 30-second

commercials or all the mudslinging and i tried to sort of think about what has happened over the last four years and what happened prior. i do believe we should look back in order to see how to go forward. when people reelected president bush they thought he deserved a second term. he was the president on march when 9/11 happened, the one who received the warnings and ignored them. but people still felt he deserved a second term. president obama is the president that on marwatch. he caught the man who was the mastermind behind 9/11, but 40% of americans think he does not deserve a second term. bush was the one who put us into a war that many people now say was a war that we should never have gone into in iraq, because it was under false pretenses. voted him back in.

host: martha? guest: your comment is rich about what i study and what i teach about in voting behavior. the first thing you mentioned the idea of defense and why is it maybe people feel more secure the guyuse obama giot that cause 9/11 when bush to let it happen. right now, whether that is the veracity of the statement of letting it happen, under bush, that's up to whatever you believe. right now that's not really on people's mind. it was bigger on people's minds in 2008. that was an important issue pour obama, to try to get the soldiers out of iraq and into a canister and and then out of afghanistan. right now what people are focusing on is the recovery from what was the worst economic crisis since the great depression, many say.

so that's what people are focusing on. if you look at the economic forecasting models, the economy, it's going down, it's the worst possible thing for an incumbent. even if the economy is not necessarily going down, if it is perceived as going down, it's all about perception. clearly, what's interesting is you have an image of the republicans as being the party that messed things up for national defense. and obama is the one that got bin laden with the democrats. you are leaning one way or another as an independent. i think i'm hearing you say that. often independents lean one way or the other. the bottom line is that is not what people really care about. the party image matters. it's just that right now people are focusing on the party image,

economically speaking. host: more facts about north carolina from the census bureau and the bureau of labor statistics -- gus from greensboro, north carolina. caller: thanks for having me. north carolina's motto is to v r -- to be rather than to seem. we value authenticity. obama is clearly the one who comes across as authentic. that is the thing i think will

speak to voters. about polling, decades ago when we all had landlines, you could get a pretty accurate polling sampling. but now with so many people going to sell phones and not having any kind of plan line, the polling is still going over land lines. i think there's a lot more support for obama in north carolina and other places th an is being reflected in the polls. the people who have land lines are more republican and conservative. thanks very much and you are doing a great job and c-span is the best for coverage. host: martha? guest: it is great. many of the top service organizations are trying to get

cell phone numbers into their random samples. there are laws that say you cannot just randomly colorado cell phone numbers, but they have managed to work on methods to get around that. i have not sat down and study the sampling methods, public policy polling, but organizations like gallup are building cell phone numbers into their samples. the presenter is doing a lot of work on comparing cell phone samples to the telephone samples. that is an issue. younger people are more likely to have self phones. land lieeven use our anymore up at my house in charlotte. that's definitely an issue. i have not studied very closely the sampling techniques of some of these different firms. i do know that they're working to take that into account. using newer modes of survey

administration as well and trying these techniques as well. the survey operations are trying to work on that. host: what is it like to have a national convention in your city, as a political scientist at? guest: it is really fascinating. i am not just looking at it from a fund political story or this huge show. it is also about my city being portrayed in front of the world, basically, and trying to see where it can really go in terms of its prominence. so that in a big topic of discussion,? what does it mean,? so what does it mean for economic development? that is something i'm interested in as a human being, but as a scientist that's not my area,

but talking about things that are beyond the politics. and some things that are the politics. what can democrats get out of this convention? are they able to excite the base and get volunteers recruited? that's the big takeaway message. anybody wanting to get in to see the speech, let's use that energy and channel it into mobilization is what they are seeing. host: thank you for being our guest this morning. live coverage all afternoon.

our preview program before the convention begins at 4:00 p.m. eastern time. david maraniss, biographer of both president clinton and president obama. the convention kicks off at 5:00 p.m. with gavel-to-gavel coverage on c-span tv, c- span.org and on c-span radio. and tonight, bill clinton is the closer. he will be nominating president obama for a second term. that is in the 10:00 p.m. eastern time hour. the full-scale -- schedule available c-span.org. and last night's close are is michelle obama. and that is how the obama campaign refers to her. here is her from last night.

>> please welcome elaine fry from ohio. >> wow, what is a mom like me doing in a place like this? i am not even a political person, but what i am as a military mom. i'm helping my youngest will join the coast guard. they are and moms was precious treasures. and i don't know when i can get together again because one of

them is always the plane. our lives are always a little bit easier. along with president obama, they have made military families a top priority. they have brought together the american people including thousands of businesses to become part of a nationwide support network. it is honor and respect in action. and it warns of his mother's heart. last december, i wrote michelle obama a christmas card, just a mom to ahman note to say thank you for caring. the first lady not only read my letter, but invited my husband and i to the white house. it was an amazing experience.

but what is even more amazing is knowing that our commander in chief and first lady are thinking about families like mine every single day. like i said, i'm not a political person, but i am a mom and if someone is there for my family and families like mine, then i will be there for them. [cheers and applause] and that is why i am so and proud to introduce my fellow mom and first lady, michelle obama. [cheers and applause] ♪

[cheers and applause] >> thank you. thank you so much. [cheers and applause]

>> thank you. thank you so much. [cheers and applause] i want to start by thanking e. lane. thank you so much. but we are so grateful for your family service and sacrifice. we will always have your back. over the past few years as first lady, i have had the extraordinary privilege of travelling all across this country and everywhere i've gone and the people i've met and the stories i have heard, i have seen the very best of the american spirit. i have seen it in the incredible that kindness and warned that people have shown me and my family, especially our girls. and i have seen it in the near

bankrupt school district where they have vowed to keep teachers in -- where teachers have vowed to keep teaching without pay. i have seen it in the volunteer workers to have driven for hours to bail people out of towns. and i have seen it in our men and women in uniform i have seen it in people become heroes at a moment's notice, diving into harm's way to save others, flying across the country to put out a fire, diving for hours to bail out a town. i have seen it in our men and women in uniform and our proudin wounded warriors to tell me they are not just going to walk again, they are going to run and they are going to run marathons. in the young men blinded by a bomb in afghanistan to simply said i give my eyes and 100 times again to have the chance to do what i have done and what i can still do. every day, the people i meet inspire me. every day they make me proud. every day they remind me how blessed we are to live in the greatest nation on earth. [applause]

serving as their first lady is an honor and privilege -- as your first lady is an honor and privilege. four years ago, i still have began. while i believe it if we dig deeply in my husband's vision for this country and i were certain he would make an extraordinary president, like any mother, i was worried about what it would mean for our girls if he got that chance. how would we keep them grounded under the glare of the national spotlight? how would they feel being uprooted from their school, their friends and the only home they had ever known? our life before moving to washington was filled with simple joys. saturdays at soccer games, sundays at grandma's house and a

date night for barack and me with either dinner or a movie because as an exhausted mom, i cannot stay awake for both. and the truth is, i loved the life we had built for our growth. -- our girls. and i deeply love the man i built that life with and i did not want that to change if he became president. [applause] i loved barack just the way he was. even back then, the barack was a senator and presidential candidate, to me, he was still the guy who picked me up for our dates in a car that was so rusted out, i could actually see the pavement going by in a hole in the passenger side door. he was the guy whose proudest possession was a coffee table he found in a dumpster. [applause] and his only pair of decent shoes was half a size too small.

but when he started telling me about his family, that is when i knewi found in him a kindred spirit. we were both raised by families that did not have much in the way of money or pri -- material possession but who had given us something far more valuable. their unconditional love, their unflinching sacrifice and the chance to go places they had never imagined for themselves. my father was a pump operator at the city water plant and he was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis and my brother and i were young. even as a kid, i knew there were plenty of days when he was in pain. i knew there were plenty of warnings when it was a struggle for him to simply get out of bed -- mornings when it was a struggle for him to simply get out of bed. but i watched him went up with a -- the wake up with a smile, to grab his walker, prop himself

against the sink and slowly shave and but in his uniform. when he returned home after a long day's work, my brother and i would stand at the stairs of our apartment, patiently waiting to greet him, watching as he reached down to lift one leg and then the other to slowly climb his way into our arms. despite these challenges, my dad hardly ever missed a day of work. he and my mom were determined to give me and my brother the kind of education they could only dream of. and when my brother and i finally made it to college, nearly all our tuition came from student loans and grants. but my dad still have to pay a tiny portion of that tuition himself. and every semester, he was determined to pay that bill right on time, even taking out loans when he fell short. he was so proud to be sending

his kids to college and he made sure we never missed a registration deadline because his check was late. for my dad, that is what it meant to be a man. [applause] like so many of us -- that was the measure of his success in life. being able to earn a decent living that allowed him to support his family. and as i got to know barack, i realize that even though he had grown up all the way across the country, he had been brought up just like me. barack was waived -- raised by a single mom who rate -- struggle to pay bills and by grandparents to step in when she needed help. she moved quickly up the ranks at a community bank like so many women, she had a glass ceiling.

and for years, men no more qualified than she was, men she actually trained, were promoted up the ladder ahead of her, earning more and more money bob barack's -- while barack's family continue to scarpe by. -- continued to scrape by. but after day, she a rival network before anyone else, giving her best out complaint or regret. she would often tell barack so long as you kids do well, that is all that really matters. like so many american families, our families were not asking for much. they did not be tried to anyone -- they did not begrudge anyone else's success or care that others had much more than they did. they admired it. this simply believed in that fundamental american promise -- they simply believe in that fundamental american promise. even if you do not start out

with much,if you work hard and do what you are supposed to do, you should be able to build a decent life yourself and an even better life for your kids and grandkids. that is how they raised us. [applause] that is what we learn from their example. we learned about the dignity and decency. that's how hard you work matters more than how much you make. that helping others means more than just getting ahead yourself. we learned about honesty and integrity. that the two matters. -- that the truth matters.

that you do not take shortcuts are played by your own set of rules. at success the blackout unless you earn it fair and square. we learned about gratitude and humility. that summon people had a hand in our success from the teachers who inspired us to the janitors who kept our school clean. we were taught to value everyone's contribution and treat everyone with respect. those are the values that barack and i and to many of you are trying to pass on to our own children. that is who we are. standing before you four years ago, i knew that i did not want any of that to change if barack became president. today, after so many struggles and triumphs and moments that have tested my husband in ways i never could have imagined, and i have seen firsthand that being president does not change who you are. it reveals the you are. -- who you are. [applause]

i have gotten to see up close and personal what being president really looks like. and i had seen how the issues that come across the president's desk are always the hard ones. the problems were no amount of data are members will get you to the right answer. the judgment calls where the stakes are so high and there is no margin for error. and as president, you are going to get all kinds of advice from all kinds of people, but at the end of the day when it comes time to make that decision as president, all you have to guide you are your values and your vision and the life experiences that make you who you are. [applause] so when it comes to rebuilding our economy, barack is thinking about folks like my dad and his grandmother. he is thinking about the pride that comes from a hard day's work.

that is why he signed the better -- the lilly ledbetter fair pay act to help women get equal pay for work. that is why he cut taxes for working families at small businesses and fought to get the of the industry back on its -- the auto industry back on its feet. that is how he brought our economy and the brink of collapse to creating jobs again. jobs you can raise a family on, good jobs. right here in the united states of america. [applause] when it comes to the health of our families, barack refused to listen to those folks who told him to leave health reform for another day. another president. he did not care whether it was the easy thing to do

politically. that is not how he was raised. he cared that it was the right thing to do. [applause] he did it because he believed that here in america, our grandparents should be able to afford their medicine. our kids should be able to see a doctor when they are sick. and no one in this country should ever go broke because of an accident or illness. [applause] and he believes that women are more than capable of making our own choices about our bodies and our health care. [applause] that is what my husband stands for. [applause] when it comes to giving our kids reeducation they deserve, barack knows that like me and so many of you, he never could have attended college without financial aid. and believe it or not, when we

were first married, our combined monthly student loan bill was actually higher than our market. -- our mortgage. we were so young, so in love, and so in debt. and that is why barack has fought so hard to increase to 80 -- student aid and to keep interest rates down because he wants every young person to attend college without a mountain of debt. in the end for barack, these issues are not political. they are personal. because barack knows what it means when a family struggles. he knows what it means to want something more for your kids and grandkids. barack knows the american dream because he has lived it. and he wants everyone in this country, everyone to have the same opportunity no matter who we are or where we are from or what we look like or who we love.

[applause] and he believes that when you work hard and done well and walk through that doorway of opportunity, you do not slam it shut behind you. no, you reach back and you give other folks the same chances that help you succeed. [applause]

so when people ask me whether being in the white house has changed my husband, i can honestly say that when it comes to his character and his convictions and his heart, barack obama is still the same man i fell in love with all those years ago. he is the same man who started his career by turning down high- paying jobs and instead of working and struggling -- in struggling neighborhoods where steel plant shutdown, fighting to rebuild communities and get folks back to work. because for barack, success is not about how much money you make. it is about the different to make in people's lives. -- the diffrence you make in people's lives. [applause]

he is the same man when our girls were first born with anxiously checked their cribs every few minutes to ensure they were still breathing, proudly showing them off to everyone we knew. you see, that is the man who sit down with me and our girls for dinner nearly every night, patiently answering questions about issues in the news, strategizing about middle school french ships -- friendships. that is the man i see in this quiet moments late at night, hunched over his desk, poring over the letters people have sent him. the latter are the father struggling to pay his bills. -- the letter from the father struggling to pay his bills. on the young people with some much promise but so few opportunities. for the woman dying from cancer with the insurance company that will not cover her care. and i see the concern in his eyes. and i hear the determination in his voice as he tells me you will not believe what these folks are going through. it is not right. we have got to keep working to

fix this. we have so much more to do. [applause] i see how those stories -- crowd: four more years! >> i see how those stories, our collection of struggles and hopes and dreams, i see how that is what drives barack obama every single day. and i did not think it was possible. but let me tell you today, i love my husband even more than i did four years ago. even more than i did 20 years ago when we first met.

let me tell you why -- i love that he has never forgotten how he started. i love that we can trust barack to do what he says he is going to do, even when it is hard, especially when it is hard. i love that for barack, there is no such thing as the us and them. he does not care whether you are a democrat, a republican, or any of the above. he knows that we all love our country. he is always ready to listen to good ideas. he is always looking for the very best. -- in everyone he meets. i love that even in the toughest moments, when they are all sweating it, -- when we are all sweating it, barack never lets himself get distracted by the chatter and noise. just like his grandmother, he keeps getting up and moving forward with patience and wisdom.

anchorage and grace. -- with courage and grace. [applause] he reminds me that we are playing along came here. and that change is hard. change is low and never happens all at once but eventually, -- change is slow and it never happens all at once but eventually, we get there. because of men and women who said to themselves, i may not have a chance to fulfill my dreams but maybe my children will. maybe my grandchildren will. so many of us stand here tonight because of their sacrifice. and longing and steadfast love. time and again, they swallow their fears and doubts and did what was hard. so today, when the challenges

we face start to seem overwhelming or even impossible, let us never forget that doing the impossible is the history of this nation. is who we are as americans. it is how this country was built. [applause] and if our parents and grand kids -- grandparents cantwell and struggle for us, you know, if they can raise beans of steel to the sky, send a man to the moon, connect the world with a touch of a button, then surely we can keep on sacrificing and building for our own kids and grandkids, right? [applause]

and if so many brave men and women can wear our country's uniform and sacrifice their lives for our most fundamental rights, then surely we can do our part as citizens of this great democracy to exercise those rights. surely we can get to the polls on election day and make our voices heard. [applause] if farmers and blacksmiths can win independence from an empire, if immigrants could leave behind everything they knew for a better life on our shores, if women could be dragged into jail for seeking the vote, it's a generation could defeat a depression and a fine greatness for all time, if a young preacher could look -- could lift up to the mound of with his righteous dream, and

proud americans can be who they are and boldly stand at the altar with who they love, then surely we can give everyone in this country a fair chance at that great american dream. [cheers and applause] because in the end, more than anything else, that is the story of this country, the story of unwavering hope grounded in unyielding struggle. that is what has made my story and barack's story and the story of so many other americans possible. i say this not just as first

lady, no, not just as a wife. at the end of the day, my most important title is still mom in chief. [cheers and applause] my daughters are still the heart of my heart and the center of my world. but let me tell you, today, i have none of those worries from four years ago, no, not about whether barack and i were doing what is best for our girls. because today, i know from experience that if i truly want to lead -- to leave a better world for my daughters, and for all of our sons and daughters, if we want to give all of our children a foundation for their dreams and opportunities were the of their promise, if we want to give them that sense of

limitless possibility, the belief that here in america there is always something better out there, if you are willing to work for it, then we must work like never before. we must once again come together and stand together for the man we can trust to keep moving this great country forward. our president, barack obama. [cheers and applause] [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012] >> first lady michelle obama speaking last night at the democratic national convention in charlotte.

reaction from last night. and tom brokaw retreated here that it was an exceptional piece of old fashioned political oratory. charles krauthammer on the other man saying "i did not buy a word of it. 2012dnc is the hash tag. we will take you live to the national journal and their discussion this afternoon on hispanics in the 2012 election. there will be some of these speakers from last night, including mayor castro of san antonio, texas. >> over the past year from july 2010 through july 2011, we

passed an historic to pinpoint where the majority of the newborns in the u.s. were non- white. this change is not only deepening diversity in places that are accustomed to it like miami and phoenix and los angeles and alice, but it is spreading diversity to places that have not known much of it in their history. from 20 -- from 2000-10, it accounted for the majority of the population in 18 states and at least 40% and seven others. it is bringing new flavors to places that have long had the demographic of a blood of white bread and mayonnaise. -- equivalent of white bread and mayonnaise. the transformation has not made its way as quickly in the political every now, but inexorable, the democracy is leaving an imprint there, too. and when bill clinton was first elected, 12% of the vote was non-wide.

80% of the vote was cast by whites. when barack obama was elected, 26% of the vote was cast by non- whites. hispanics were 2% of the vote in 1992 and 9% in 2008. and the best estimate is that 50,000 young hispanic people who were born in the u.s. and our citizens turn 18 every month, and will do so for at least the next 20 years. if whites and minorities voted in the same way they did in 2008, but at the proportions that they were in 1992, john mccain, not barack obama would be seeking reelection this year. instead, barack obama became the first nominee ever to lose whites by double digits and win the white house. this year, he could lose them by even more and still win. we are here today to talk about the impact of these momentous changes on policy and politics in america. and national journal, we have

for years placed in special emphasis on eliminating the implications of these trends, most recently through our next america website and our next america supplements, two national journal magazine. i hope you take the opportunity to find out on our website. our friends at abc and univision are to lee -- are keenly a attuned to these changes. they are addressing the growing hispanic population in english. and to talk about that on our program today, i want to turn over the party and to my colleagues. jake tempore, a white house correspondent andrea salinas, the anchor of univision's network news, a syndicated columnist kollhoff radio commentator, and the most recognized female hispanic journalist not only in america, but in the americas as well. i would like to get your thoughts about your projects as well.

i want to invite people to join us at #2012dnc. >> it is a pleasure to be here. it is an honor in this special session. i am talking about the joint venture at univision and abc. we are thrilled at this joint venture not only because we are working with such a professional group of journalists with abc, but also because it will give us the opportunity to reach that part of the hispanic population that is either english dominant, or would like to hear what is going on around the world in a new language. as you said, hispanics are a very young population. every 30 seconds, a young latino turns 18. they become adults. and the growth of the community has come more from u.s. born

than from immigrants. more from that, it would also be an opportunity to talk about mainstream media. we know our issues. this is an opportunity for people to understand who this new sector is that is growing so rapidly, the fastest-growing sector of the population, and also the electorate. what our trials and tribulations are, what our contributions to this country are. >> it is such a fascinating year to be talking about latinos in politics. obviously, with both the republican and democratic conventions, we have seen a real demonstration of both parties trying to reach out to these communities, whether it is marco rubio with his prominent speaking, or gov. martinez, or of course, our own guest of honor at the table over there,

mayor castro. we have seen both parties trying to reach out. one of the things that seems very interesting to me is that while we have these things happening, it is fair to say that mitt romney has on immigration reform the most conservative position of any republican presidential nominee, at least going back to the '70s. one of the reasons for that that might be counterintuitive is that he is the first republican nominee not from a border state, not from california or arizona or texas. counterintuitive lee, that might be one of the reasons why that is. and about the joint venture with univision, i am thrilled to be here with maria. she is a broadcast giant and admired by millions and millions of latinas. we have talked about importance or is, from the election in mexico to the interests of

latinos in america. in the coming months, abc news and univision will be working more closely together as the two companies get ready to launch a new entertainment network on line this fall. that will have culturally relevant programming. not just news, but politics and entertainment, health, wellness, in english for the fastest- growing demographic in the u.s. in english, 50 million hispanics. >> would you like to start off? >> i probably will. i would like to introduce someone who is a shining star. you have been hearing for weeks and weeks about this young latino mayor from san antonio that would be the keynote speaker at this convention. and he is the first hispanic and a democratic convention. definitely a lot of expectation after in 2004, barack obama

became the speaker and then four years later, the president. we want to make sure that we see your hands first. i want to make sure that you are julian castro. that is how you can tell them apart. [applause] it is great to see you. you did a great job. i had an opportunity to visit with you a couple of weeks in san antonio. hughes said, i am not barack obama, and i will do this my way. i think a lot of people agree that you did do this your way. you were able to talk about the opportunities available in this country to so many. tell me about your daughter, because i think she upstaged you last night. [laughter] >> she is 3 years old, and i was getting yesterday to the

part of my speech about passing the torch to the next generation and how i would tell her in spanish [speaking spanish] and i whispered to her when we went to pre-k the other day it is the most emotional and poignant line. the jumbotron has her foot in her hair. everybody starts laughing and i'm saying, what, you are not supposed to laugh at this. all she knew yesterday was that i would make a big speech. more than anything else in the years to come, when she gets to see that and understand it on video, she will have a great time. somebody gave me the suggestion is more in that i should say that for her wedding reception sunday and then play that for everybody. >> yes, you made history, and so did she. you have a very high-profile role in this convention.

in 2004 it was barack obama who gave that speech. and he became president, but several other people who have given keynote speeches have run for president eventually. are you interested in running for president? >> know, and that is not going to happen. there are a lot more folks to have given the speech and gone nowhere. it is true that there have been some folks who have gone places, and people asked that all the way through yesterday, and even now, of course. i have never woke up on any day of my life and said, i want to be president of the united states. i got into politics because i wanted to make the community i came from a great city. and i have a competitive streak for san antonio. the fact that we have 29 statewide offices in texas and the count between republicans and democrats is 29-0.

something has to change in the state of texas and latinos have to vote at a much greater rate than they are voting have right now. mayor, for many people, i think among the most powerful -- >> mayor, for many people, i think, the most powerful image in your speech is that the american dream is not a sprint, but a relay among generations. how would you assess that generational trajectory for the hispanic population in the u.s.? look at education and economic and entertainment. how is there really going? >> i believe america is working its magic on this demographic group on the -- in the way that it has for others. the upward trajectory for the latino community, let's look at education. just recently, we saw a surge in enrollment among latinos in college. we have more latinos today that are getting their ph.d, getting

their masters, greg joining from college, graduating from high school that we did, they fully, when my mother was growing up. -- thank phillippe when my mother was growing up. the fastest-growing segment of business owners in the u.s. are latinos. the number of latinos since the early 1980's in elected office, everything from cement to school board, has tripled. -- from the senate to the school board, has tripled. but we also have issues like arizona and nevada write the laws that are being passed. and as ragged response in places like alabama. you are seeing the a generational progress. my family is an example of that. but sometimes we take a couple of steps back, like we have seen

recently. >> your mother was a well-known political activist, but were essentially as an activist outside the system rather than working inside the system. and talk about how your perspective of social change being achieved differs from her spirit and >> my mother grew up in native -- differs from hers. >> my mother grew up in a different time. she would get punished for speaking spanish in school. she went to catholic school for 16 straight years. as a girl, you would still see signs in texas where they would say "no mexicans or dogs allowed" on the shop doors. sexual discrimination is still. the chicano movement was bidding for that time. you needed a group like that out there. in any movement of progress you'll have folks who will say, look, we're going to protest. and we're going to get folks to

vote. something needs to change now. i'm very proud of that. when i got elected mayor, the first thing i did on the senate and i got to move in was i put up the 1971 campaign poster of when she ran for city council. having said that, the blessing i have as a young girl latino -- younger latino is being the beneficiary of her generation's work. it is the good hearted ability of americans to become better, that has been a blessing for the younger generation. and we see the glass as half full. we are part of our heritage and we are able to operate in the corporate boardroom, but also in the legislature or out in the neighborhoods. because times have changed, folks do have a different approach.

it seems likely that ted cruz -- >> it seems likely that ted crews will be elected to the u.s. senate from your home state of texas. if that happens, he will be the fifth statewide elected official who is latino and republican, and if you count the governor of puerto rico it is five. meanwhile, the democratic party only has one, senator mendez of new jersey. you referred to the national association of collective latino officials, and there are many more that are democrats than republicans, but not statewide. the directors of this has been in this -- a persistent achilles' heel for the democratic party. they have not been nurturing democratic leadership. i'm wondering if you think that is the problem of why republicans outpaced democrats in electing statewide officials.

and at what rate the uc is becoming a purpose -- to do you see it becoming a personal stake -- purple state? >> i believe that the jury is still out with regard to the effect of the wellspring of letty note statewide candidates on the republican side. -- latino statewide candidates on the republican side. when these folks started getting elected, it was basically the 2010 cycle, a tea party cycle, and historic wave of folks who rode into office. it was a bit delayed indexes. we are seeing that with ted crews now. -- birkhead cruise -- with ted cruz now. the issue is not the

personalities, but the policies. that is why president obama is leading 70% to 25% in the polls. i believe in the next six to eight years you will see an acceleration of that stake into a purple state for two reasons. the growing latino community is growing faster than any community, like 60% or so of the growth in the past decade. secondly, public polling had an increase -- an interesting fact in virginia about a weekend out ago. it took virginia for romney versus obama. obamacare -- obama was being romney in virginia 50/45. but among the folks who had lived in virginia for at least 20 years, romney was a winning 51/45. among those who had owned of

their tenures, obama was beating rodney 67/29. over the last couple of decades, that state has been growing like crazy. it is one of the fastest-growing states. your people moving from moderate states into texas. the combination of those two factors, the growing latino vote, and the growing number of people who come from more moderate places, that is going to change the state in the next six to eight years. >> by 2020 at the latest. >> yes, i would say so. >> you told me in an interview that latinos have one of the lowest voting patterns in the country. how do you reverse that? you said they are 25 times less likely to vote? >> yes, there was a fascinating statistic today that in

california, their boat had a 10% less of a rate than the rate of the mainstream voters. in texas, it is 25% less. even latinos in a latina stake you wonder what in the world is going on. >> how do you change that? >> i think you change that through the old fashioned order registration drives, voter turnout drives. we're talking about this offline and there was a point about unionization. there is less unionization in texas. they are typically a big driver of votes. i'm convinced that this is tied back to what you guys are doing. one of the most untapped segment of trying to reach them, it has been the second generation and third generation letty know that is english dominant. at the same time, the campaigns and advertisers have not been speaking -- the campaigns have

not been speaking with advertising through that group of folks. generally, they think they ought to ever ties in spanish and that is hitting that latino vote. and they do not want to mix their messages with english. you will have a channel that is aimed at english dominant latinos, and a broader audience, but that demographic. that is a demographic that is underappreciated, but in a very influential wade where they can try to mobilize a group that right now is not mobilize. it was fascinating to see the breakdown of pulling in terms of generational support for these candidates. president obama's support was strongest with new immigrants and weaker with second and third and fourth generation latinos. that is exactly who this new venture is going to hit, the new

english dominant crowd. with all of that and is grassroots effort, i believe you have a formula for ramping up in the long run the latino vote. >> we've got to let you go in 90 seconds. it was there one other thing you wanted to ask the mayor about? >> i do. like millions of americans, i was googling yesterday. i came across a very unusual story i would like you to share with everybody about the parade incident in 2005, which reminded me of an episode of the brady bunch i once saw, were your brother was actually mistaken for you in a parade and it became -- i would not call it a scandal, but a career faltered -- a kerfuffle. >> in san antonio, there were actually two different parades. and each time, the city council get a barge. and i was on the city council at

this time, running for mayor. you can take a family member and i would always take my brother. at the very last minute i decided not to go on the parade. my brother was still there and he was already on the barge. he told the people there who he was. but the announcer just announced all of the city council members as if we were all there. my political opponents were there and started to see that we were trying to fool people were not trying to do that. but nobody believed us. we ended up on good morning america and the today show and the early show. i have been squaring up and down for seven years now that we did not try to do that. we only try to fool one teacher in high school one time. [laughter] >> it may get harder after last night. thank you for joining us. mayor castro. [applause]

>> widell we bring up our next guest, marriot. >> it is interesting what he was saying about second and third generation latinos. that is a target audience. how many hispanics are eligible to vote in the u.s.? is it 14 million, 5 million, 2 million, or 23 million? i know there are at least two people out there who have the answer. >> eligible voters. >> exactly, 23 million. there are 15 million that are registered and only 12.2 million that are expected to vote. there is still a lot of work to be done. if latinos are already making a difference in a lot of races,

and we saw that in nevada in the last senate race, that could be one of the biggest challenges this year. >> and there is a question of whether we will even if the 12 million figure. there is a dispute among some political activists about whether we will get that high. let's bring up frank sherry, the founder and executive director of america's voice, a group that works on immigration issues. he previously served for 17 years as the executive director of the national immigration forum, where he has been at every debate since the clinton administration. and jan at is the senior counsel for la rasa and has been centrally involved in many of these issues. frank, i want to start with you and talk about president obama's record.

you know, the question of what happened or did not happen on comprehensive immigration reform in 2009 and 2010. responsibility is kind of diffuse. i mean, it is a big legislature, whether he pushed hard enough, and so forth. but enforcement of immigration laws are under his administration's control. how do you assess the record of the obama administration on immigration control, and in particular in the last year since they have announced their administrative guidance to revise the policy? >> i think president obama came in with the intention of fulfilling the promise that he made in our conference in july of 2008 as a candidate. he said he would make it a priority in the first year. quite frankly, i do not think he expected the like of, republican cooperation on every issue. but we have to be honest, he did not make it a priority. he made health care a priority. he came in with the idea that if

there is tough enforcement and a willingness to deal, republicans will come to the table. that was what happened in 2006 and 2007 when bills nearly did pass. but the ground shifted under them. obama was cut out -- caught up in the old conventional wisdom that it could hurt them with swing voters and democrats on the defensive. that was famously non-data by rahm emanuel back in the day. he is now the most famous pro immigration politician today, but he said to steer clear of it back then. if the obama administration would put some skin in the game, we predicted that reaction among republicans would be divided and offensive, and swing voters do not vote on immigration, and it

would raleigh latinos and progressives. >> i give a lot of credit to president obama for leading in and agreeing to do the deferred action. but quite frankly, and ironically, it was a senator marco rubio who had an idea that was framed around these principles, and who in the end, i think gave cover to this president to be able to move forward. as senator rubio was putting out this notion and trying to gauge the rest of his party quietly and behind the scenes to figure this out, it was an opportunity that obama gave them the chance to lean into it. i think they were surprised, not only hispanics and a broader constituency, but even the fact that there was not as much attack from the right. >> thinking of the broader

issue, not the dreamers, but the broader program, your organization has put out press releases as recently as this summer expressing concern about the way it is still being implemented by year after the president said they are shifting course. what is your sense of how that program is unfolding? what are your concerns? what have they changed? what happened? -- what haven't they change? >> let me be blunt. the white house has said clearly that their priority is to go after the bad guys, the worst of the worst. and yet, secure communities is a program that outsources enforcement priorities to local police. in many areas that means the mother with a broken taillight is getting swept up in the dragnet and detained and deported, meaning low priority cases. the people that obama promised to put on a path to citizens and are getting put on a path to are getting put on a path to