the 2012 election cycle it really did look like republicans would pick up two, three, four u.s. senate seats and that election. we have to have two mindsets. the cards are dealt by the previous election. of hissenate, because six-year terms, we have to look back to say what happened six years earlier? off a2 we were operating base of 2006, a terrific year for democrats with the war and president bush's midterm election and all the arguments we ever talked about. so they had a great election in 2006. there were overexposed in 2012. they probably should have lost seats.

a couple of people decided it would be really good idea to swallow hand grenades after swallowing the pins. other brad -- bad breaks here and there. we went from a situation where everyone thought republicans would pick up three-four seats to a net loss. that is why i am a little reticent about saying even though the dynamics are very similar, 2008 was a great year for democrats, therefore 2014 there overexposed. by all rights democrats are enormously over exposed. a lot of this will be contingent upon can republicans fix their problems, both in terms of macro free and problems on the one side, and as well as problems like are they getting good people to run?

are those people winning their primaries? and what kind of campaigns they run, that sort of thing. republicans have been snake bit in the senate for the past two elections. even though 2010 was a terrific year for the republican party and they did pick up a good number of senate races in 2006, of the seven senate races that were tossups going into election day into a dozen 10, republicans lost five out of seven. eight out oflost 10. there is a monkey you republicans have to get off their back where they have been losing the close -- close races. some of this is brand image and a little bit technology. if republicans get their act together, they ought to be able to pick up a bunch of seeds in

this election. as of today, they need five seats to get a majority in the senate. the real number is 6. they have far of his seat in new jersey they will lose in october. and so the big number is going to be a sixth seat that republicans will need. certainly there are opportunities out there. it is those fourth, but, six fifth, six they have to worry about. mary plan grew in louisiana. to a lesser extent, taken in north carolina would be the seventh. tip over republicans tip those over in addition to the open seats in south dakota

and west virginia -- what is the other one i am thinking about? fontana, yes. have the blows with brian's whites are not running. sweitzer not running. fifth, is the fourth, sixth. there is only one republican seats in a democratic-leaning states, and that is susan collins in maine. unless she does not run for reelection are gets bumped off in the primary, she is fine. the only other one we're really looking at is in georgia. that is where later today the daughter of san done is rise -- is running.

, whether histhere candidacy, it really matters --y if republicans nominate how do i say this, and exotic or potentially problematic nominee. that is the term i use with my wife trying to convince me that to use the term whacko anymore. if republicans nominate a normal republican, they held out a seat. georgette is shifting a little bit. in the south, virginia has become a mid-atlantic states. it is really not behaving like a southern state anymore. it is a classic swing state. north carolina is working its way through the transition. not as far along as virginia it

is, but giving less and less of a southern state every day. georgette is way back, but moving the same general direction. the rest of the deep south not moving at all. texas is its own world. so georgia is not there yet, but if republicans nominate someone that cannot reach out and do and those that are moving to georgia over the past 30-40 years, that would be one they could potentially lose. that is really the only republican seats i'm paying much attention to at all. that is where we are right now. lot ofraising a questions. it is early in the cycle. that is what keeps the stabbing, keeps it interesting is all the

different permutations of what can happen. to don't we open it up now questions or comments or accusations? there are microphones here, here, and over there. hand and ase your non-threatening way and a microphone will make its way to you. there is one right here. here next.e over a quick question. he went through the races you are watching, and you did not mention kentucky at all. just curious why you're not mentioning it at all. it is are we in the morning, and my five our energy has not kick in. i should have mentioned that, i

apologize. legitimate,with a decent democratic candidates against mitch mcconnell intended -- in kentucky and you get 47%. the next question is, did you get the next 2-3 percent? that is a very hard to-3%. because mcconnellt' generic republican -- what democrats are hoping for is he could reach in and grab some of the moderately- conservative women and a little -- and the lewisville's suburbs

and lexington suburbs and go after the voters where maybe they are uncomfortable little bit with guns -- what are the issues are. that she can appeal some of just a couple percent off of mcconnell and it beats him. will be a premier race, but it is one that if i were grimes, i would want to keep a relatively low profile early on, get my organizational ducks lined up, raise my money, carefully up to speed on federal issues. she has to know the have the equivalent of a presidential campaign on the other side. imagined,p, real or there will pounce on and beat the daylights out of her. i think she has to do this in a very measured way.

i am not expecting to hear all lot of this race for a while to go. we fully expected to be a top tier race. usings what i get for not any notes of all that i leave their race out. right here. >> i am a physicist. i look at numbers. >> you and i have a lot in common. to the issueturn of turnout, which you referenced earlier. i think the polling probably does not reflect some of the issues surrounding the tra yvone martin trial. i am wondering whether we will see mobilization on minorities who are very upset with this. you see some of the same issues with women on restrictions on

abortion. obviously this will not affect the house, but it could affect a number of senate races. if this case occurred in september or october of next year, i think the possibility of that really ratcheting up minority turnout would be very high. energy and focus tend to have shelf lives. politics 15 months is a really long amount of time. have groups onll the democratic side that are trying to bottle capture that energy and keep it going, but that is a very hard thing to do. the reverse of the scene in jurassic park where they are

getting chased by the dinosaur and look in the rearview mirror and it said objects may be closer than they appear. it is kind of the opposite of that. the longer the election is, the further away it is, the less likely to be relevant. more likely something else will be relevant. tendency weere is a all naturally have to look at what has happened to us right now and project that well into the future. i would say, what is in the news in september? what is in the news in october? the first couple of days of november but that would be more relevant. an event like that can really change things. the other thing i might say is when we talk about the difference between mid term election and presidential

election turnout, the gaps are not as wide between african americans and midterm elections. i think that is one of the reasons why greenberg and women's bonuses -- voices groups are focusing on women. these are people, a lot of these folks do not follow politics itdly, and as a result, -- is a good group in the sense that it is a very efficient group. numbers move a bunch of pretty quickly if they can get them to vote. when you have a group that is already boating in pretty high , and african americans did not trail white voters that much anymore. it is certainly the case. can you discuss the drama

that is becoming the wyoming city race. i think i'm going to stop answering questions from this corner right over here. there are a lot of reasons why incumbents drawl primary challenges. sometimes somebody is old and grown out of touch with the state. sometimes they have gotten too conservative or too liberal or -- too moderate into and out of sync for scandals and something like that. i cannot really find anything like that with him. it would be uncharitable to say

this is about personal ambition -- [laughter] is open to be persuaded that is not the case. [laughter] sometimes silence is golden. pleasure of going back to shreveport's the other day. i tried to engage everyone i talk to about mary leandro and no one wanted to talk politics at all. what are you hearing down there? issue, and this is a reference to my home town, part of the problem is in shreveport no one knows who built cassidy is pier yen --

bill cassidy is. i think the race has not really engaged at all. louisiana has not turned a corner and focused on the senate race. i think this is going to be a very big race. one side of the equation she will take over the senate energy committee. influence inot of a state that has historically had a lot but as of late has not had as much. on the other hand, the senator has been the beneficiary of having either really weak opponents, or really good years for democrats. had a toughever opponent in the tough year. that will really test her.

this is, i believe, the toughest had, and at has worst for republicans it will be a level playing field in louisiana. i sank this is going to be the toughest election she has had yet. thaninly it is tougher woody jenkins, susie beryl. not as bad a year for republicans as 2008 was, although 2008 and louisiana was not that -- you get the general idea. if i could know the outcome of three states, that would be one of the three i would want to do. i would go to kentucky may be next. it will be a good race.

she will have to run, i think, a better campaigner than she has in the past because she has a tougher opponent. we stand as a tough place to win statewide now. >> i wonder why you read off the kay hagen.ff are mentioned it, but there three democratic seats that are at least leaning republican. alaska,e three more arkansas, louisiana, that a bigger top tier, and then go back a little bit and find north carolina. into him last ran week.

is the first time to run in the big state. sometimes they become good stay white candidates -- statewide candidates, and sometimes not so good. we have to let the race to develop. what does the legislature -- what is the image going to be like? i think that race simply has not developed yet. we know the first three are going to be very hotly- contested. north carolina may very well get there, but it is not there yet. it is clearly one that i am watching. cannot prioritize them all as top races. so i put three ahead of that in terms of the really hot races, that we will one be watching.

i guess it is good news and bad news for her. she is notws is defined and, but toward a boy. -- in the majority way. she has to doing before getting ahead of momentum. handson. mika you mentioned this would probably be the first time mary mary went row would have a tough race, considering the governor, the thing that could help with her in this case? >> not really. the governor's numbers are not particularly good right now. saw some that they

were around the same as president obama's, or maybe a touch lower. i do not think the governor or legislature -- i mentioned the legislature in connection with north carolina because tom to the list is the speaker of the north carolina house. is the speaker of the north carolina house. it is a federal race. more of washington oriented. there may be a republican senator, i. democrat just do not think that will be connected in any way. so if she gets reelected, i do not drink it will be because of the governor or legislature.

so i just do not think there that connected. obviously they could be. >> good morning. scott agreed would. thank you for this. think of oz -- hospitality in hosting it. the analysis was the only way none israel was event was if therelevant gop nominates someone radical. if you consider her, she is not a politician, ceo of the largest service organization in the world, all of the i can act -- iconic family names, etc., and lay in the democrats have not tried to win in georgia in a couple of cycles. they try to get the unmarried women and all of that -- tubindi

she can bethink relevant? >> i do not think georgia as to the point where are really strong democrats can make the difference. virginia is there. north carolina is there, but look at the presidential numbers and georgia. the of blue jersey is there of reliability still. is a liability. i think just being a fresh face, a new person, all of that, i do not think that changes the color. ,hat you have to have for her and six, 10 years from now this may be different, right now i think she really does need to who is barelynt

middle of the road person, independent who looks at this and says i cannot go there. i do not think we're quite there yet. all of these things that barry well may help her. the state is still a lot more republican than not. i do not think that alone really gets her there. take a look at last year's presidential. it is a pretty good example poll of were the country is. neither side really competed hard in it. it is a reflection of where is the state right then. it is on the transitioning from red to blue. still very much on the red side.

it will take awhile to get to blue. it is kind of like texas, it is just not there yet. >> good morning. over social media. how is that going to come into play? how is that tracked? how does that track and come into play? sticker you are asking someone who turns 60 later this year. you are asking the wrong person. i was looking at that and think twit.arlie cook is a probably already exist.

again, i'm the wrong person. they're people that can speak far more eloquently. it is something that is out there. innovation is not new. i could remember before there was a regular -- how many of you remember the old fax machines where you put the people under lip and it would spin around? all of these things have revolutionized products in different ways. social media is the same way. sell all of these are innovations that are really important. ido not think it changes -- did nothing social media changes anyone's values. what it does is speed up the process of information and getting information out to cases who in maybe some they do not read it newspapers,

do not watch television news. getting information into crevices that sometimes political news does not normally go to. it is something that republicans -- let me expand it from social media to technology -- republicans really do need of theh up in terms whole idea of campaign technology and social media is a part of it. 2004 the reelection campaign was state of the art. to the extent there was data mining, micro targeting. republicans were right there on the cutting edge. for all intensive purposes, the next eight years were lost on

the republican party. republicans did not have it alone. you have the dean campaign and , but they kept developing through 2008 and into 2012. side, broader technology this is something republicans need to work on. contributing editor at the report wrote a piece recently where she was pointing out on the democratic side, a lot of this while the campaign developed a lot, these people have gone out into the private sector, and you have private sector initiatives going on, developing cutting edge technology and data bases where

she was drawing a republican side. year stall in five- plants where it centralized and maybe not as innovative as it needs to be or as democrats are. >> the virginias governor's race is not instructed on what is in the future. >> i think it will be of no utility in telling of anything. at all. race --inias governor's

i think it is born to be an interesting test. let's start off with rigid is a swing state. we know at virginia has a of picking whoever is in the white house. -- voting on this side of whoever is in the white house. this is an interesting test that is up there. in a swing state where independent and moderate voters are getting more and more fieldedt, neither side candidates that was made to order to go after swing voters.

are absolutelyrs up for grabs. are republican and one to go between the 40-yard line boaters, i am not sure you would cucilleniated ken . i am not sure you would recruit a former democrat national chairman. think in a really interesting way this -- this is a great jump ball situation where neither side has a claim on the other. this may steer some of the moderate independents one direction or another. mind president obama had

the taken office, and that democratic nominee had just won the nomination. or to thea poll showed him ahead of bob macdonald. -- did i say something wrong, did i not shower this morning? reason was president obama's had started really dropping at that point. had lostratic party the momentum they had in 2008. a state that had gone democratic

in 2008. suddenly it started transitioning, and use all the national dynamic really kick in there. i would love to know who won the governor's race -- i would love to know who will win the governor's race, probably the best indicator we have this year. sort of the biggest sample poll that will be out there this year. >> did i tell you who was going to win? >> know. i think it is going to be particularly northern virginia voters.

maybe we will have a hint. there is a good chance we will not all the way up. >> grant thornton. grit -- good to see you. can you address the changes that pollsters are having to deal with making sure polls are accurate. take up that is another terrific questions. answer that is pre-2012 answer. let me give an effective 2012 answer. rise ofof the telemarketing through the 1990's and a voice decade

all theseller id and things, and i am not including cell phones, the effectiveness of market research in political polling has gone down. the response rate. at one point it was up the 30's. reach -- in the 10% range. this is before cell phones are in the mix. the best pollsters could not do as good a job as they themselves were able to do 10, 2030 years ago. no matter how hard they tried,

it was not as reliable as it used to be. did you introduce cell phones. introduce cell phones. they were including that in their samples. and it is the poll we were talking about yesterday, 50 percent of the sample, was made up of people on their cell phones, which is made -- which is extraordinarily expensive to do. how many people in this room did not tell land line? raise your hand. a pretty good size number. certain technologies like tobotrobotlling -- calling, not allowed to do that. 2012 you had a unique problem.

one of the things that happens as the response rate goes down, thesters have to adjust numbers to make sure if they have a pretty representative sample. the electorate will be 52 percent female for example. count on things happening. they have to wait to make up for it because the response rates are so low. you had a growing provision in 2012 about what is the 2012 electrical and to look like. speaking hadrally is republican pollsters say in 2008 when priority -- turn out

to end up so much, very unusual dynamics. was the first nominee for the presidency. have republican assuming that were 2008 was a one-shot deal. on the other hand, democratic pollsters say we have another new normal. it is becoming more diverse. what we started seeing in the fall of 2012 between the sides was a growing gap between what

republican pollsters were getting and believed were giving and believed. kind ofoking at what margins, and a lot of these cases these are people i have known for 20-30 years. i knew they may be right, wrong, but they're not lying to me. gode was an honest to difference of opinion between the sides and you had to reconcile who was going to be right in it was going to be wrong. at the same time independent screeningwho had questions, questions designed to ascertain who is likely to vote in not vote. historically asking people how

much interest to you have an upcoming election? historically that has been a pretty good question to determine who is in is not likely to vote. historically it did not work. on the other hand, you had legitimate people that did not have a thumb on the skill in any direction that were relied on traditionally that were just not right. we are now beginning to see a lot more non-traditional pulling. both the obama and mitt romney campaigns. yes, they did a certain amount

of live interview pulling, but also going to ohio and dropping 10,000 rabat calls into ohio and waiting to say i know they are not getting cell phones. calls.00 robot where they were coming up with these analytical models based on something other than traditional interviewing. what is pulling today is changing. interviews, and increasingly on nine polling, which i have our roots -- always been dismissive of because i never that you could get a real representative take online. give them a computer.

so they could draw on them for online interview. all kinds of things are happening. traditional model not working as well as it used to. so poling has always been an art based on a science. now, it is getting to be even more of a mix. and less scientifically rigorous that used to be -- less scientifically rigorous because i think you are seeing multiple thrown of polling being in a cuisinart and blended ofether, which is a lot subjectively goes into that. we're in a new world. in a previous life i worked as a pollster.

it does not look much like it did back in 1980. >> hi, charlie. there has been us on twitter. i was wondering if you could lay out the law of the land on the presidential race. >> i'm were to lay off as the entire side. take a first of all, there should be a disclaimer that the accuracy rate for procrastination -- procter nation's three years in advance is the rope. maybe it is a little bit easier to look of both sides, each side separately. it is a group of questions.

about it.k hillary clinton, yes or no? if yes, then the biden is more likely to be no. did you get into all of these others. the conventional wisdom in washington seems to be she is absolutely going to run and it is a political decision and politics say that she should run. i do not know if she's going to run or not. while i would agree with the conventional wisdom that this is the 100 percent political decision, thoughts are probably very high she runs. i think it will be a personal and political decision. the personal side is does she

feel like running? does she feel up to it? i personally think she was a terrific secretary of state. lord knows i have travelled 38 and wasound the world like 119 days on the road and all that, but that job really did take its toll on her role -- on her. the last couple of months, those were physically -- they appeared to be very hard. feel up to it? yes or no. no inside information whatsoever. thinking she lost her mom a couple of years ago. i think when you lose your remaining parent you have a greater sense of mortality than

it used to. she had a couple of people she knew well in the senate that have had devastating strokes at early ages. impact the health consequences? chelsea going to have a kid? i think it is going to be a political and personal decision. i would put it closer to. the issue really want to do this, yes or no? the politics would argue strongly for her to do it. joe biden, i think he desperately wants to run. i think realistically, my guess is the odds are he would not. you never know.

once the democratic party has made a shift from the baby boom generation to generation x -- millennial -- millennial is after that. x is right. once the electorate has moved with obama or the democratic party has moved with the obama to generation x maybe they might go back for hillary, but what they go back for joe? don't know. if hillary clinton does not run , either refuse to believe we are ever going to see an open contest for democratic contest nomination with an all democrats feel. d.c. kristin delivery and?

-- do you see kristin warren?nd, elizabeth might you see? i think there will be a compelling argument for someone not in washington, a governor. martin o'malley, andrew cuomo. fromian schweitzer montana. someone who says i have never worked in washington, i am not part of the cesspool in washington. you see that out there. a lot of permutations of where on thego, but all built questions that have to be answered up front. the republican party is a question of how many times can you cut up the center right in

the sense of -- i do not know how one what exactly measure this, but ted cruz, rand paul, scott walker, marco rubio. chris christie? i think he would be a formidable general election candidates. i am not sure how he wins the republican nomination. let's say on the democratic side, could mark warner when the democratic nomination? i think that would be very hard. is jeb bush. i think he would be a very strong candidates but do not think he will run. he would like to, but i do not think he will run for personal reasons. you enter into all these things.

that is a very long way of saying who knows? it is going to be a lot of fun to watch. who have i left out? i do not have my cheat sheet in front of me. tom harkin? i think he is retiring. what is the story that was reported that his wife read game change and said you are not running. no idea whether that is true or not but that that was kind of funny. the old adage that senators when nominations. last u.s.008 the senator to win the presidency was john kennedy. then you got to 2008 and had to u.s. senators.

two u.s. senators. if i were a party, i would rather have a governor as a nominee, someone not perceived to be a part of washington. does that mean that any governor could win the? obviously not. we have exhausted all questions. twitter questions. hopefully you buckled up all the majority ones. are we supposed to read names? asks, 2014, gop still in trouble with yonder non- white female and on-partisan voters. will it matter in the mid-term election? i think the answer to that is it depends. mid-term that in the

election all voters are old, white, male and conservative liberals. he will obviously have them that are younger, non-white female and moderate. how many are there corn to be? keep in mind in the house, how many are there going to be in the 4-5 senate states that make a difference in terms of the u.s. senate. yes, republicans, to the extent they had problems in 2004, those problems, just because of the nature of the turnout might be somewhat diminished by a different turn out to make up in 2014, but that does not mean those problems go away. mid-term elections. obama hurt the

democrats in 2014? what we look at polls for. is at an he equilibrium point with the approval and disapproval -- this approval rating in the 46-47% range from both. we do not know yet. if his approval levels will be higher or lower than 47%, i think i would pick the lower side, but one thing you have to keep in mind about president obama is because he has had such -- if president the stock a stock in market you would say he would have a high floor and low ceiling. that he has a bedrock base of support that will approve of the

job he is doing no matter what, but at the same time you have an equally strong level of opposition. his numbers do not typically fluctuate -- do not typically break out of the certain trading range that is out there. so his numbers have not gone as low as george w. bush's were during the tough times or not as high -- but they did not go as high. of jobnew what kind approval rating president obama had in october-november of next year, that could give us a clue. we have to remember the key races are more senate and house. the ones that are most relevant ,re alaska, arkansas, louisiana

north carolina, kentucky -- those are the ones that matter. those are ones not on the sunnier side but on the sheer side. the lower side of whatever the national approval rating is. we have to keep that in mind as well. question. right here. is there a microphone? >> isam danny ritchie, a college student. as far as i know, there is still pending redistricting cases. currently the maps are pretty non-competitive but if one of them were to get overturned, would you expect that has an effect on the race for the house? i wish i had david wasserman

here to throw a lifeline to. know.of all, i do not i do not know which way it would go. i think i remember david saying there are only a couple of places it would likely change, so i do not really know, but in the big scheme of things, there is a 17 seat difference. is not going to be materially changed much by court's overturning maps in florida or anywhere else. so i would say it would not likely have a significant national impact in doubt if it would have that much more than a seat or to either. started my newsletter in

1984 when they i realize very quickly is i am not a lawyer. i am very careful on redistricting and all kinds of lawsuits, that that is not where my area of expertise goes, so i tried to stay in my lane. i do not think it would make that much. thank you very much. thank united technologies and all the terrific people at united technologies for sponsoring this get together. i want to think it c-span for covering this. we will have several more of these this year and next year. thank you all by a coming. when in doubt, read the directions. as a reminder, we would love to hear your thoughts and feedback on the event and would encourage you to allow the event of surveys placed on your street --

steep pierre did you make of this to any member of the national journal team. thank you. [applause] [captioning performed by national captioning institute] >> this week, president obama begins a two-month series of speeches across the country focusing on the economy and jobs. today he speaks at knox college in galesburg, ill., where he spoke as a freshman senator. live coverage starts at 12:50 p.m. eastern. >> live coverage -- that role of the first lady become the confident, really the only one he can trust. so he unloads to her, talks to her. they have all done that. they are all strong women. i would say that is their main role, confidante to the

president. >> the original series, first lady's image examines the public and private lives of the women and influence on the presidency. watched encore presentation from these ladies weeknights and august. >> coming up, washington journal is live with your calls and sweets. and noon eastern, the u.s. house returns for more work on amendments to the defense spending bill. up, a discussion of the implementation of the affordable care act with jim mcdermott, top democrats on the ways and means subcommittee on health. ofgressman bill cassidy louisiana talks about his bill blocking the epa from enforcing rules that will adversely affect the economy.

spotlight on magazine series peaches a popular -- a popular mechanics. he will discuss the cover story of future technology of [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2013] host: good morning, and welcome to the "washington journal" this wednesday, july 24. president obama is touting his economic agenda on the road, taking a stop mid day at knox college in illinois. c-span 3. lower interest rates are on the way for student loans that could happen as early as today. the senate is expected to take up a bill to link interest rates to the financial market. dividing lower rates to college students starting this fall but perhaps higher ones in years ahead. tune into c-span 2 for