good afternoon. to the national press club. aing angela keana. we are the world's leading professional organization for journallities, committed to our profession future with programming such as events like fostering a free press worldwide. for more information about the national press club visit our website at www.press.org. offered too programs the public through the national institute journalism visit press.org/institute. i would like to welcome our as well as those in the audience. our head table includes guests asour speaker as well working journalists who are club members and if you hear applause from the audience, i would note that members of the general public are also attending so it evidence of arily lack of journalistic

objectivity. welcome the like to c-span and public radio audiences. follow the action on twitter #npclunch. introduce our to head table. i would ask each to stand briefly as your name is announced. from your right, kevin, a committee member for the vietnam war commemoration. marcus, a documentary film maker. washingtonppe, a correspondent for ganett. secretary of the the air force and a member of the national press club. thomas burr, senior washington correspondent for the salt lake city tribune and the chairman of board of the national press club. jim michaels, military reporter for "usa today." bill ingram, director of the

army national guard. the podium.r donna, a reporter for "usa today." the organizer of today's lunch on the speakers committee and the 2009 president of the national press club. skipping over the speaker momentarily, rachel oswald, a at national journal news wire. brigadier general james whitham. mary french of army magazine. chief master sergeant mitch enlisted advisor to the chief of the national guard bureau. watson a retired daily newspaper editor. a veteran of the national guard and a member of the national post.club american legion known asfales better

sergeant shaft, a columnist at military.com. [applause] as the defense department a leanerow to create less costly military force without compromising readiness ournd guest today points to the national guard as a key part of solution. today's national guard general "the mostrass says is come patent, relevant and battle tested national guard in the history of the nation." if testimony before the senate defense appropriations committee called the guard a "cost-effective proven solution" allows the nation "to maintain a robust military at theleast possible cost to taxpayer." the september 11, 2001 terror on the world trade center in new york and the

pentagon in washington pushed thecitizen warriors of national guard more accustomed to responding to u.s. natural frontlines twoe of foreign wars. in addition to iraq and afghanistan, national guard tosonnel have deployed libya, kosovo and other hot around the world. nothing illustrates the dual inhl better than monday illinois when governor pat quinn activated the national guard to residents hit by a ferocious winter storm and another was activate for deployment to kuwait. congress recognized the guard's tee fencen the 2012 authorization act when it elevated the head of the bureau to the joint chiefs of staff, the military advisors to president obama and his national security team. the guard's future is uncertain. this fall as congress fussled budget, the guards faced potential sequestration pared thewould have

force by more than 10%. would make it challenging for the mill tare troy meet its goal of operating in two theaters of war simultaneously and the guard had to deal with homeicated issues on the front. in november, general grass vowed uncooperative state and national guard bureaus to comply with defense department direct equal benefits to all married couples including couples. general grass began his career in the missouri national guard. after graduating from officer candidate school he was officer ind as an the engineer corps in 1981. fen ral gas earned his fourth he became thehen 27th chief of the national guard bureau. besides advising the president, for ensuringsible that the more than 460,000 army personneltional guard are accessible, trained and ready to protect the homeland provide combat resources to the army and air force.

to tell us how the national guard transformation will continue, please join me in giving a warm national press club welcome to national guard bureau chief general frank j. grass. >> thank you so much. every time somebody says you are an old969 you guy. makes me feel old. i will talk about that. from 1969 toy today is amazing. there is a number of folks and that have the room lived through the transition of the guard going from what was truly a strategic reserve back the 1960's. 1970's. 1980's so what become a premier fighting force both for at home and overseas. do what i thought i would today first talk about three

things. one being where the guard is today. bit about our homeland mission and the things that mentionedangela just just recently with the winter how we were able to roll out quickly like we do all the time in the guard. but then also talk about the army and air force and our roles in the army and air force on the federal mission and then a enduringt about our partnerships that we do. before i do that, i want to for what you do. when i was a lieutenant if i saw wanted to i usually run the other direction. when i was a major i was kind of work at the army guard ready innocence center i was like do i have to deal with folks. when i was a lieutenant colonel my next thought was i better get in the game, where is the public affairs officer, what do they do. as a general, i mean and the that i have our public affairs staff has been phenomenal. if you can't tell your story, at what you do.

andso i want to applaud you thank you for the opportunity to be here, first of all, but also tell theyou do to story of the nation's military, defense in general. warriors thatn of we have men and women in the united states military today makes up about 0.73% of our population. than 1% of our population serves in uniform any given day. got a chance in 17 months now on-the-job i have to 25 states, five countries, some of those twice, visitn the combat zone to our troops and our troops in general, active guard and service.every they are phenomenal. they are the best this nation offer. and so as we move forward with the current budget crisis, we we don'tto make sure break in. and i know the general was here the other day and i worked him and with general welsh and with the

secretary haig and the chairman joint chiefs. we have to get this right. we owe that to our nation. civilianform and our leadership as well. is this guard today? well, for 377 years now we have rolling out of the gates of our armories whenever the call.ors in some cases even before the governors call. i have seen situations where is a disaster. i remember my first state active coming out actually i was driving with my wife at the time, we were dating and we headed to a dinner and on the local radio was hey, engineers get to the armory immediately. governor order. just turned and said on hon you to take the car and go to the dinner yourself, i have a flood to go to. that is what we do every day.

tayly update and mechanics that went in to repair the help snowplows. the state trucks they went in to because the trucks were running so many hours they didn't have enough mechanics. assistance people to help those in indiana that were broke down and couldn't move interstate highway systems. goes on and on and on of the men and women that do this every day. last 16 months since i have been here, hurricane event.as the first 12,000 guardsmen rolled out the gate. total.22 states some states rolled in to help new york and new jersey and west snownia that was having a event during sandy. and it was seamless. sitting in my chair i thought i don't have to do anything, i just watch this occur and get to go up and shake hands and visit the great men and women and see who they are. this smalljersey in cell of about 20 soldiers and

airmen. the sergeant in there and the lieutenant i meet them and talk to them a little bit. and the lieutenant is also a the town next in door so he knew everyone in the community. guard is,s who your how it has always been and to break don't want that. some folks in the room here have recognized from the guard. i do want to recognize my has been a here who guardsmen. i'm not going to ask how many has hadtive duties he but the director of air national guard bill ingram and i have years.together for bill could probably tell you all kinds of stories and knows more about fighting and responding to hurricanes probably than most of us begin to think we would know retiring herebe well over 40 years of service here in the end of this month. been a great partner here both from his time working in the state and also state mobilizations.

whatever we needed he was there for us and now running the air national guard for well over two years. [applause] >> i want to talk a little bit about the federal mission of the guard. i get asked the question all the time about why does the national f-16's.ed why do you need f-15's and apaches and tanks. i say we don't need tanks and and fighter jets. what we need is whatever the air force and army need in their reserve. because our first mission and our two missions are equal. to support the federal reserve of the air force, the united states air army.and united states however, the army looks, or, however, the air force looks we be interchangeable. we will never be identical to them. notre not going to be and try to be. and they will never be identical

because of the homeland mission where we role off the gate. ofhave to be complementary each other so that when the air force needs additional fighter jets the thehe support skillset or army needs additional brigades. that means being organized, equipped the same. i can honestly tell you today than itiness is higher has ever been in the army and national guard. we are organized trained and equipped at a higher level than i have seen in my 44 years of service. is because of a lot of great investment by the nation throughout the water. challenge is how do you balance that in this fiscal thatonment and not lose edge, not lose that equipment. the air force mission very unique. hours any air national guard unit can deploy today. ready tohave got to be

deploy. that is overseas. at the homeland, where is my good friend, j.c. air national guard? we have 40 fighters and seven tankers sitting on alert right if something happens over the skies of the united states there is pilots in jets, is ground crews getting the jets up in the skies, six they're over the skies of the united states. that as part of the north american aerospace defense command mission. that is unique from an army mission which takes more up andwer to get it going. but the air force does that mission well and we have a great welsh.ship with mark on the army mission, depending skillset you need, if you need support personnel, my example, if you need engineers, most of our engineers have got some civilian background in engineering in some way.

i just visited during the colorado floods. visited thend during the crisis i flew in some oficopters, we had a mix active helicopters plugged in to the colorado guard working with guard camee wyoming in. i think we had 23 chinooks and blackhawk combinations at the peak pulling people off the side of the mountains. later, which you probably didn't see on the news is after the floods went down, four states rolled in with national guard out of the air and army and they were engineers reopened the road in between lions, colorado, up to estes park. i drove it a couple of times after they opened it. i thought when i first went out there, they finished the project about a month early. intent was get that road open so utility workers could get in so people could get back to their lives and begin to recover. i thought i would drive that a gravelsee maybe, road up alongside the mountain.

it was 25 miles long. were 18 major washouts around the size of this room. flood, i after the drove that road on a 24-foot wide paveed road that was striped. now there are some areas they back in the spring and have to rebuild. but the guard came together, the federal duty, highway administration funded it and the colorado department of transportation did the paving. pretty amazing. so i go in and i said how do you make all this work? comess lieutenant colonel up to me from the colorado guard and he is riding with the colorado department of said sotation and i what did you do? he goes well, he says i know i on now but my civilian job i'm a highway engineer. up the colorado team and the department of transportation and i said look, i can figure this out if the do this request we can get this 100% financed and we can work together and bring and make thiss in thing go. and the guard can come in and do

the rough work up fronted a we top.do the finish on that is who your guard is. so if you are going to deploy extraas you bring that skillset in every job out there. november went to afghanistan and while i was there i met with one of the general is. says i want to introduce you to somebody and the colonel ates in the room and i look the colonel and i see that he has got a national guard patch california. i said oh, what unit? he said 40th i.d. do as ahat do you civilian? he says i'm a lawyer. >> here? provincial governor advisor on how to set up rule of law. the twothat is skillsets we always bring into every environment. when we are talking about skillsets, depending on what you want, what you need in can deliver. guard we are talking about brigade combat teams, fighting in now the standard that we are using and it is an

standard is 50 to 80 days we can have a brigade team ready to go. some of thome are harder to synchronizethers to a combat brigade of tanks and takes taketh air support, bit longer. we say the worst case especially and resources have become dwindling, will probably days ecan have a brigade combat team and that is using the army standard. today most are certifying anywhere from 50 to 80 days of training. engineering units i just talked about, most of those are going to go through 30 to 45 training. the further we get away from the current conflict, you know, out a bit.stretched we want to make sure we don't edge.hat the unique thing about the guard constitutional structure

in 1636 withrted both support the civilian government and support the president when called upon. and we have created some the future that will continue to grow in the that areresponse unique from what we had if you katrina we didn't have a unity of effort and command. structure.ave a i want to share that because today we do have the unity of structure. and it is -- it is hinged in a dual statused the commander. precertify an and national guard one star who then can command and control active guard reserve forces. example.o the colorado during the floods, when fort carson said we have helicopters, we know people need to be

rescued, mike edwards, the general of colorado sends a note up to us and general jacoby and to set up a dual status command and he sends in a staff for the title 10, the side of the mission. colorado stood up their normal mission, their state and one commander commanded all of the 23 helicopters and gave them direction. get that approval from secretary of defense. happens all the time now. we do that pretty routinely both for crisis. have done it for years for planned events like a democratic convention or a republican inauguration.an events.o it for crisis that leads me to the last comment i just wanted to share with you and get to the questions. all about partnerships. so much in the homeland is about partnerships. in to assist the community we are not in charge. we are supporting somebody. incident commander. a fire chief.

a police chief. and we want to make sure that do roll in there that our soldiers, no matter whether they are guards, going to be the first one in, if we bring in any active with us on the dual status construct, we want to sure that everyone understands we are in support of that first responder and our job to theave talked gate, our job isge to make the first responder successful. whatever they need, that first responder, that governor is in charge and let's make him successful. partnerships are what we focus on. part of that partnership event occurs inside the pentagon every day. being a member of the joint now toi have access organizations that i probably never would have had as a three just a chief and not a member of the joint chiefs. of thealled in to all sessions as a member of the joint chiefs and to give you a examples, during boston bombings i was called in

immediately to sit with the of defense and talk about what the guard was doing in boston. what was governor patrick planning on and how was he going to respond when they shut the city down. i already had information from thateneral at that point he had 450 troops in the city at the start of the event. they were there for security for marathon. immediately the governor said i'm going to authorize you over a thousand, put them in the now.ts and let's start building a plan to back up the police force and armored vehicles out there to escort the s.w.a.t. we begin to look for the two gentlemen that did acts.rrorist i was able to take that information immediately and get it to the chairman and the secretary. during hurricane sandy, i probably sent eight to ten hours over acretary panetta two week period. three times where we actually wasfed the president, usually on a call or he was on

air force one, but i was able to bring that perspective directly from the general and the pentagon.n to the and about day three of this when i was with secretary panetta and of engineers who did a great job, the defense logistics did a great job and north con working closely with them in case we were short anything they would back us up. what i found day three i thought thender who was talking for states in this meeting before we were on the joint chiefs? there was nobody in the room that had ever done state active duty or knew how it was organized. realized the i real value of being on the member of the joint chiefs is that information to that level of government. otherwise, if you don't have that level of information for reasons youight will overreact. if you don't know what a we arer needs, you know, very proactive in responding to the homeland. all of our agencies are. partnership,

though. you got to continue. having the chief on the national guard. other partnerships, though, and close with this is our state partnerships consideration consideration. we bring aaronic program called the -- we bring a unique program. we team up a state with a military to, a military relationship with a country. ofs started after the fall soviet union and eastern block countries. a number just celebrated their anniversary in 2013. we are continuing to add. i think in 2014 we will probably partnerships. we are working on those with combat and commands right now togethering the teams and build long-term partnerships. and we help those countries capacity within their security enterprise. and i will just leave you with of this.it i mean the one i really like and

really focused on and just occurred not too long ago. an offshoot of the partnership program was as the war started, of these countries wanted to assist. recent one that just redeployed was a story out bosnia and maryland. bosnia and maryland have a partnership that is actually the for maryland.ship and we started a thing after 2003 where we would bring partner nations and we would plug units in to them or they would plug individuals or units in to our formations and then iraq or afghanistan together. poland didn't. manyight know how deployments poland did with illinois. kind of was unique and summarizes how great pa has grown ornship partnerships is bozia wanted to deploy. deployingeen ordinance units into iraq but

wanted to get in and deploy to nato.istan to assist bosnian military police embedded in the 115th maryland out of the guard and deployed together to afghanistan. i september my political advisor nimlock to bosnia to be there for their welcome home. the minister said this was a fabulous event. we were consumers of security in the past, now we feel we can a part ofcurity as the international community and what is next for us. can we look to the future for support and peace keeping operations and nato and other organizations. so that kind of says a lot about what these partnerships have years.er the and well over 700 events we are doing per year. that whole thing for total dollar figure, the money in the

national guard is $12 million a year. dollarssome training just less than $20 million a year. and believe it or not that is to one account nobody wants mess with because it gives you so much great engagement. and these countries that with us, 17 rotations, i think, it was actually 17 countries. rotations into either iraq or afghanistan where we plugged together like that. we are building capacity and capability for the future that to help nato. thank you. [applause] >> thank you. what would you say is the biggest challenge the guard faces right now? maintenance, recruiting, else?g, something >> there is two challenges. one on the federal side and one on the state side. let me start with the federal side. tremendous force we have.

i with encourage every one of you and we will work with you to and see this force. we have to keep this force employed. we have to find challenging mixechallengingmissions for the. mentioned 25 and i states and go out on drill weekend or annual training. these young men and women joined because they think they going to challenged. be if we go back to the strategic reserve that i joined, these young men and women will not with us. they will go find something else to do. they want to take the skillsets military and the be able to apply them. so as the budgets get tighter we get that out how to right. and we have some ideas we are working on right now. side, one of the big challenges and worries me every day is a major catastrophe in the homeland. we have gotten very, very good, eventre was a regional occur right now, a regional being say another hurricane katrina, ourp to a

our response agencies, even working very closely with the state gotten verywe have good, great connective between us being able to respond and what is needed and know where the gaps are. i can tell you right now from yearcane season every where the gaps ever from the guard and what we might need help in. that.e gotten good at when i think about say an 8.0 zonequake in the reduction on the west coast or the hayward the san francisco oakland bay or the new madrid or hitting new york city those concern me and they concern north come and administrator fugate and we are spending time thinking how do he would respond at that level to get there quick. >> do you consider the national guard to be in direct activetion with the service branches for defense dollars? >> well, you know, this is one

defense budget. so we all have to work off that defense budget. we areell the general not immune, our appropriations the budgetune from control act. as long as we have a budget control act we are going to take reductions. worked on is a proprosal with the general generals that d show how we could play those bills and try to a maintain a quality opportunity for anyone guardants to join the today. >> it has been widely reported that the army and the guard on the way forward for the army national guard and both put forward competing proposals secretary hagel's consideration. can you tell us about your plan and why you consider it the best action?f >> if you look throughout the last since world war ii the guard has been stable where we are at as far as the army and air guard in strength.

one of the issues we are looking now, though, is if we have to take reductions to pay those bills what does that look like? are the numbers we have been working with, with the army and with the air. i think we are in a good place with the air. are still working through on discussions with the army. know that we can take some reductions and maintain a the guard andin pay the budget control act bill. forward, though, everything we do is tied to our services. the reason we have, you know, our federal mission and our equipment is to do that federal mission when called upon. component active loses money, we won't be able to modernize. to send pilotse to the schools that we need to as rapidly as we need to. peoplet be able to get into basic training and advanced schools. we got to work closely with the and make sure that

we could win the battle and lose be able tonity to train our folks because of the training infrastructure comes force.e army and air odeirno indicated thee is a balance between army and reserves and future cuts would likely come from the guard and the reserves. with hisree assessment? >> so, this is the hard part. this is the hard part. dempsey and ial talked about this one day when i first game in the job when we actually debate? the 2013 budget with the air force. is the right mix between your active component need sitting there 24/7 ready to go. your national guard. bulk of your national guard force is a traditional force and

almost 3,000n community. they roll out the gate quickly in their community and can be standardp to some pretty quickly. we train at the same standard. the same.ipped at what is that right balance? that is what we are tryin tryino find now, what is the right balance in there? the air guard has been working with the air force and air reserve on a metric to get that the discussion. i think there has been a lot of studies. we are pulling a lot of the studies off the shelf to look at this. the guard offers a great opportunity for the nation to this right and when you talk about an insurance policy and a very unstable world and i think we are a good opportunity to future.or the >> den the general also said on tuesday that the national guard trains only 39 days a year and is therefore not interchangeable with the army. to have a chance to respond to that? >> well, i will tell you as i have traveled that i have been

trying to find the person that trains. i did train 39 days a year for a andyears in about 1971 1972. once you become a leader, even as sergeant, you may get paid 39 days a year, but i would tell you those guard men and women week, the armory once a the leaders are, twice a week. i remember in the summers there that went byend hardly that we weren't at a two or four hour meeting for something. the idea of training 39 days a year, i'm not finding that any more. and then if you figure also the schools our folks have to go to the employersem have been great to work for for the most cases they have been off professional development schools and go away branchr months to a school or n.c.o. development course. the air guard. change iny cow, the technology that is going oned a the requirements that we have to get our folks to school. people have been leaving their jobs to go keep qualified and

change something rapidly. not only, that, of course, with widespread use of electronic media, and electronic education, are doingur folks work on their own. sometimes they are doing college classes, you know, online or attending college just to be competitive for the next grade. idea of doing 39 days a year to me doesn't exist any more. army and guard are said o over end strength. what is an acceptable reduction guard and how would you describe the status of discussions on that topic? starts with thearts debate and discussion we are having right now and really boils up to the leadership of the nation that will be working through this is if we can only afford a certain amount, whether is active or guard, what can accept on active duty and

what can we put into the guard someeserve to be ready at state of readiness? for the guard, you know, we have the opportunity to also have drivennstitutionally dual mission and be available to the governors. as we move forward here with the budget we have got to figure get one out and weig we can't that wrong for the nation. if you put everything on the active more and you draw down more, which we are not and there is no proposals to do that. are paying a huge bill in compensation at some point in the future will catch up with where you will only be paying salaries and won't be able to modernize. you put everything to the guard you won't have the 9/11 force ready to go and deploy haveeas because people jobs and things like that. somewhere in there it the balance that we got to find. >> do you expect to go to congress with a unified plan with the army or will there be debate, dispute on

that? at the budget control act, you know, i was looking at charts yesterday. we have relief here for a few years. do ist we don't want to rush into failure. we have got some relief with the added and $9 billion addd that gives us a few years to look at this. belts lefttightening and right. you know, we are looking at the changes in units for the future. i don't know if the general talked about it, but there is the potential that if we are a force for 20 years from now, that force may look a whole lot different than it does today. go back 15 years ago and compared toforce compar what we fought the war with totally different. i think there is opportunities to look at how we are headed forward, what types of capabilities do we need in the homeland and the guard and need the support to the air force and army.

as we look to the future how money shake out? when we get beyond the next two years, do we stay on path with act?udget control what is congress going to do? can we get to a point where we efficiencies and savings to do the missions, to do the strategy, to do the asia shift, and still do that within the budget? and i'm very mindful. appropriations are being hit by the budget control act just as the other services are. so as we look out to at least the nextext, you know, out cycle we will be looking closely to get the best force we money. the some of that is going to be reducing the size of the overhead. >> what role do you see for the army reserves as a partner on team?ree component >> this is an interesting one because i get criticized sometimes. and i are good friends. asas a traditional guardsman a captain in the st. louis

district with the corps of engineers. civilian there but worked in the guard as adorational. an active duty captain as a project engineer and we then. together way back i think there is opportunities here. the opportunity i think that we reserve right now is give you the example of the status command. that dual status command, the designed was to avoid confusion of unity of afort and unity of command in crisis in the homeland. you one commander who sees the whole picture and that one commander he or she is answering to the governor on one hat and to the president and secretary other hat.on the i think as we shake out this discussion on a serious, serious incident in the united states and i gave you. earlier, let's just say the new madrid, if there is new madrid quak quake of 8.0 af

it back in 1811-1812 faultlinemonths that shook off and on with aftershooks and rang church bells in philadelphia. that is how much potential bring.r that that could if you think about today and i always think about, this the the missouri, the ohio river, so much commerce goes up and down those. even if the bridges don't have to beey all inspected. is?s where all of the power coal-fired electric plants up rivers. those locks and commodities that go up and down the rivers. every forceill need we can get our hands on to respond and take care of the people of the united states and is where the dual status commander comes in. and i think if we work with the reserves and we work with the department we can figure out a local unitsthose can come in under a title 10

requests, ifernors with they are short engineers and a governor request the last thing we want to do is wait for somebody to get there, rightally if they live there. the key is the governor's out of assets froman't get the guard any longer because we are out and he requests it or requests it we want to be able to move in quickly and that takes coordination in advance to right. >> what is the potential for the sinai andng back the kosovo missions and what is the guardsmenof having perform those as opposed to soldiers? first year on the job i had a chance to visit kosovo sinai as well. and the mission there fits so well for our guardsmen. our guardsmen are a bit older, they are mature. the outposts in the sinai and it is a great

opportunity there to train a squad leader. there is a seven person team throughout on the top of this a staff and you had hadgeant there, and then you a young e-5 sergeant and the staff sergeant allowed the e-5 to run the site and we were grooming him for the future. he will go back home and that is pay us benefits in leadership for years because he knows how to work a mission. to form that -- form his team to respond to the the sinai axe we have been doing that mission for time. kosovo the same thing. above that, though, because now in ant into workin working interagency coalition warfare organization. peacekeeping operation and logistics it takes to support that. one of the things i saw in kosovo was the civilian skillsets spinning out of what we do. before some of the

humanitarian aid that has been and quite a bit assisting, we saw organizations coming in from the guard and up humanitarian effort and reach back to their in oned bring forward case it was the old, remember the old 286 computers, some of you don't. but some of the old computers. needed was computers to put a floppy drive and put a lesson on or something like that. they had a bunch of those shipped over. guard reached in and they had folks in the unit that knew how to set up a network and things like that. there is opportunity there's. the general and i have talked about it. offramping which is always problematic. most is driven by two things. one is fiscal restraints last the second is the drawdown forces. guarde agreed that the will stay engaged.

today, 19,800 guard men and women mobilized air and army today. still mobilized. when people say aren't you concerned about -- we are still almost 20,000. who would have ever thought of that? i think the right number is going to be around 5,000, maybe willgade every year that keep us those opportunities. but what is even more important the opportunity to capitalize on our training periods. on our annual training especially. and some of that may choir a three week annual training to do overseas mission. the air guard mastered this in many cases. we had missions where an exercise needed an air guard platform and support and we were able to pull that out and help force in a declining budget. >> how have these frequent deployments and activations affected recruitment and detention in the army and air national guards? >> the two directors here could tell you that our strength is

doing great. is fabulous. our readiness, our personnel medical reddiness is at a higher state than it has ever been in the air national guard and army guard. do that.e resources to make sure the medical and dental kept up every year. been out to visit the readiness processes. as the resources dry up we are that that will decline over time. it is a priority we going to have for the future. the recruiting piece one of the i have for the future is are we going to be able to opportunities for those marines, ney visit personnel coming off of active duty that want to continue to especially the army and marines draw down, will we have opportunities to capitalize on and get them into the guard?

and why that is so important to us from a recruiting general ingram and i know not so much on the air side because they have continued draw a good number from the active duty but on the army side running closery to a 50% prior service and a 50% warrior service when the started. that meant you know 50% of our force was coming off of active into the guard before the war started. as we went into the war and everyone saw the guard three, four two, deployments, 760,000 army and lot ofrd deployed, a folks that got off of active duty they were starting careers families and knew if they joined the guard they would go on another rotation and may have two or three deployments already. we shifted and today probably about 20% prior service and 80% not prior service. that is very costly. because if we can bring in a or airmen offr the street, you know, out of the

service into our units we save a money and we experience there. if we can shift that back closer 50/50, that will be a big help for the future. right now we are still setting think it is goes to 20/80. and the other thing that will we can shift closer to a 50% prior and 50% nonprior money in the recruiting and have to work, you know, if you look at what was read aulation, i just report, three out of ten high graduating today fully meet the criteria for the waivers.tary without so that is the competition. and by the way, the same three are same ones that are getting to big universities and things that we will compete with. we have to get that shift and more prior. >> do you think that national guard soldiers and airmen and are being treated differently than active duty soldiers on their return home? >> you know, we have -- chief

my wingman and battle buddy there, of course, i will say one thing real quick. only here and only as good as he is because blair his wife makes sure that andets up in the morning gets his uniform on and he can serve. but chief brush will tell you we been out traveling together, you know, working with the states and the guard. i think that i'm going shift minute.stion for a i think what we are going see as that thisrward here force that we have is going to us if we don't challenge them, first. going to find, what we already found some of is older force going back in time, and i think what we -- saw bill what you probably in the army guard definitely, was the age as you get older you have more physical problems and things. so the force declines in

readiness and we can't let that happen. but chief and i are committed to making sure that every soldier we have is treated properly no matter what age. as we go around to some of the warrior transition where people are recovering from an injury or a wound, that the older folks longer to heal. so a younger force is always healthy.be more the -- when we hear about a guardsmen ora women different than an active we are right on top of it. to give you an example we had a state that returned the general won't go if into the details. the general sends me a note and says our guys got pushed off to the side. said hey, move out of the way, we got another unit coming guards you have to wait. and that was just one small person. by one we passed that up through the

chain, that information gets to to forcesgets command. and they will have first army tucker camer mike out and spent time with the generals. the first thing he did, he will go out and make sure that that again. happen then the warrior transition units, i asked chief to go out warrior transition units and spend time with them to make sure our folks are being care of and also to make sure that people are getting well and getting back to their getting backs and home. so something we are definitely concerned about and we will continue to watch. it was when we first started mobilizing at all. it was pretty ugly when we first started mobilizing because we mobilized the support base at we mobilized the forces. >> two related question that i will ask as one. you able toere recalcitrantfive

state national guards to provide benefits to same sex military couples and what is the perry of governor refusing to abide by the federal mandate? >> let me talk about when secretary hagel said hey, you need to fix this. something that hit home for me in the process was we had a soldier, a same-sex marriage inple and she was killed afghanistan fighting for her nation. and i watched how that state handled it. even though they didn't recognize same sex benefits or point.e at this this was well before secretary toel had said hey, we got make this work after doma was overturned. a soldier.that was you know, i don't care, you know, it doesn't make me any difference. it is a soldier and we got to take care of that soldier. called the general on the phone and brought him in and

said we got to fix this. understand that we are kind of in the middle of this and there is state constitutional issues and statute issues and there is an attorney general that has got to be involved. our legal framework within defense has got to be involved and we just worked every day to solution that did not violate state constitution and state laws. to applaud the states because many of them worked really hard in a very, very make it work so that we could extend benefits to serving in the military. about texas? >> actually, we have actually good relationship, working relationship with them. notright now we are actually having any problems. i don't know of any situation denied benefits. >> can you bring us up to speed military suicide

issue that has, of course, affected all branches? is it inof a problem the guard and do you think that the guard and the military overall need to take more steps address it? >> you know, this is a problem i have a -- it as serious problem within our society and me, really bothers me. i'm sure it bothers all of you. throughbeen working with some of the school systems in where our armories are in and what would drive someone to take their own life? ad a mir ral wh a admiral who y a liaison to health and human services. services.e.gov has ehas done a fabulous job of reaching in and trying to get is happening in the society. the problem for the guard is we out theretributed that you don't see someone every day. may see them once a week or drill weekend when you are deployed you spend more time.

half of the suicides are folks haven't even deployed. what has happened in the society and how can we partner with the communities? we have one state working that because of a couple of suicides the schooled in district as well as in the guard and they are working through to see how we can partner. problem within the society that we have to deal with. and, of course, we bring in the group that brings, you know, whenever you touch in to thed you bring guard america you have the same kind of issues. psychological health professionals in every state and we are getting ready to make changes. we have had contract psychological health to deal this. make them available. make them available for hometown families as well as the service members. and then educate all of their these are that available and if you see someone that is not acting right or you see someone that is having a problem and most of the issues we deal with are financial,

drug andhips or alcohol depression. what we try to do is make sure isryone know there's healthcare professionals that can come and you can talk to and anonymously. the air guard that we just shifted right now we are we areg resources and going to change those from a contract to a civilian position within the guard so that they there all the time. they will begin to understand the community, they will begin demo graphicsthe and have the connectivity with the health care professionals in the area. looking at doing some of the same for the long-term. one of the concerns i have and i partner very closely with the veteran's administration is that as we know,own the force, you if we don't do anything else the army is going to come down 70,000 from the growth the surge, mator reasons are coming down some. all of those individuals, those have servedans that their nation in time of war are

coming back to hometown america. know as a nation yet what 12 years of war does to people. or does to families. 1 years of war -- 12 years of war. you have young 30-year-olds out there that had five years in combat. impacts.know the we got to be prepare to work that in and we think the armories are the good place to start working the distribution network up through the state head quarters. >> we are unfortunately almost time. before asks one last question, i would like to remind you about upcoming speakers. c.e.o.w the chairman and of am track and january 15 the managing director of the i.m.f. on january 21, the executive director of the nfl players association. secondly, i would like to present our guest with the clubtional national press coffee mug.

so now with two of the joint these to theing meetings and share. >> thank you very much. you.ank >> and one last question. curious abouts your first meeting once you got to the joint chiefs. get the big deal to four star and be there was there hazing that went along with that? [laughter] >> as the chairman reminds me often, he says you asked for this, right? chairman, i did. i couldn't ask for a better chiefs.n by the joint they deal with very, very difficult issues and you know behind the position and when they went to the senate to testify. things off ofnced chairman dempsey. he has been a wonderful partner across the board. been toeen welcomed and all of the events of the joint chiefs. the thing that really catches you when you are sitting there the first time and you are thinking okay, any issues in the

oneland today, anything mobilization, thinking through that and then all of a sudden there is this so what is your syria?s on what really hits you at that is that you have to make sure you have created an organization that can respond to level. and not just to the homeland because even though i'm an advisor for the nonfederallized i have to give my opinion to the and they of defense president on all topics that involve defense. get your staff ready. it is an investment in time and resources and training and i would applaud both the army and air because they are offering us people intos to put positions that will help us grow for the future. i will leave you with one thought. i need to do this if that is oh bay, of course. guard iss is who your today. recognizest going to is master sergeant, michael

and some of you have heard this on the news. this is truly your guard. he lost his life, i could pick any master sergeant the samee and be response. michael sparks middle school corps veteran. nevada air national guard, master sergeant lost his life protecting his students when a 12-year-old walked in armed with a semi automatic handgun and opened fire on the school campus in october. that is who your guard is today. thank you. [applause] >> thank you, general grass for today. i would also like to thank the national press club staff and institute and broadcast center for helping organize the event. finally, a reminder find more the nationalbout press club as well as a

today'spt and video of program on the website at www.press.org. you. we are adjourned. [applause] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2014] [captioning performed by national captioning institute] looking at the upcoming 2014 election cycle followed by -- toms from don cashel daschle. amory burkle discusses challenges facing women and conservatives. >> nancy reagan was the first lady to address the united nations and at a joint appearance with the president. >> for my young friends out there, life can be great but not when you cannot see it. to seeur eyes to life

with the vivid colors that god gave us, the precious just to enjoy life to the fullest down to make it count. say yes to your life and when it comes to drugs and alcohol, just say no. as itst lady nancy reagan returns monday night live at 9:00 p.m. eastern also on c-span radio and c-span.org. table lookup the 2014 election cycle in the upcoming midterm elections with group is strategists. cillizza moderates the discussion hosted by the group center forward. >> if everyone could take a seat, we would get started with the program. thank you all for coming today

to the first quarterly event or 2014. i know it's bad weather. we originally federal the store late last year and it snowed. we originally scheduled this event for late last year. academicgs together find a common ground and common sense solution the challenges. i would like to first introduce our moderator. we are delighted to have chris cillizza today. he's a premier political journalist. the washingtonh

post. he covers congress, the white house, and all things white house in his blog, the fix. roll call.m the cookthat, aat political report. join me in welcoming him today. [applause] is republicant strategist dan hazelwood. he is nationally recognized for his work in the areas of targeting andegy, persuasion theodore and -- persuasion. i'm not sure if i know what that is. targeted creative communications a republican based marketing company in alexandria, virginia. it works with campaigns in every

state. it's past clients include bush cheney, dole kep, and over dozen members of the house of representatives. please join me in welcoming down. our next panelist is david wasserman from the cook political report, a dream job for a lot of us in the room. he is responsible for handicapping and analyzing house races and also serves with the national journal. 2011, the cook political report pass comprehensive 2012 redistricting outlook. please join me in welcoming down. -- dan. [applause] our third panelist is jeff lis

zt. he's a partner in a nationally recognized democratic polling firm and they do polling on political candidates on various officials including dozens of statewide officials. he is a veteran campaign operative who has experience in working with did the triple c and the democratic governors association. in 2008, he was part of the campaign team to help elect president obama. join me in welcoming jeff. [applause] will turn it over to you, chris. >> thank you all for coming. i know in falls church, virginia, and was a little bit i see. i'm going to talk very briefly and let these guys do a bit of a spiel. i'm most interested if you guys

have questions so we will do that. i was going through some numbers last night knowing i was going remarkableand it is the number of what we would identify as moderate either liberal to moderate republicans or moderate to conservative democrats. those who have left congress willingly or unwillingly on the few years. winning bymcentire the closest margin of any democratic incumbent in the country in 2012 retiring. jim masterson in utah and a district representing that he absolutely should not. it's a remarkably republican district. suburbs ofn in the philadelphia also retiring.

i don't think it's by accident. is a less thans pleasant place to be. at the moment, there are some members of congress who could dispute my theory, but i think it's not the most pleasant place to be right now. one number i was struck by, blue dog democrats and other members in the 111th congress, there the blue dogrs of coalition. they are both members and retiring. this is one of my favorite fascinating information's, but the seven most conservative house democrats according to the voting ratings, all of them are no longer in the house. ,he seven most conservatives two lost primaries, from

oklahoma, pennsylvania, joe donnelly redistricted out of his seat in indiana. think you, richard murdoch, elected to the u.s. senate. i don't think it takes a rocket scientist to conclude that less people who, whether through their own band or the politics of their district are inclined to cooperate with the other side that if there are less of those of smallhe likelihood deals is less likely. we've seen that play out. , you may or may not be aware of this, but it's an election year surprisingly enough and that seems to make the deals that

happen. typically it's not the way we everyonehis town as looks towards the reelection races as opposed to spending a lot of time on what would likely be a very controversial or a very difficult to reach across the aisle to get something done, you deal whether it is on fiscal, immigration, energy. i think the safe bet typically boar orngton is small nothing. we all hold the possibility that we are surprised that we are often not surprised. the one other thing i will say as it relates to the senate, i think you have a combination of moderates heading for the exits but i think you also have massive turnover particularly in the senate, a place where there is not typically that much turnover. these numbers are amazing to me. 2008, 40 new senators, 20

democrats and 20 republicans. six years ago, 44 senators had served at least three terms. today that number is 32. the senators had served one full term or less. more than half served one full term or less. senatese-ization of the -- i know that's not a word -- but it is in play. many senators are more loyal and more aware of some of these outside groups than they might be of john cornyn or mitch mcconnell. these people are just new. there's not an institutional wisdom that exists. you can argue if it's a good or bad thing but it's a saying. you take huge turn under -- turnover with the departure of the moderates and we are where we are today. i will stop there because i'm

interested in what these guys have to say and i will just question them as i see fit. i will go from right to left. dave. of veryit on a lot important points. 2014 is going to be another polarizing election in this country. the cook political report, my organization, rates them as competitive in a general election and that includes 24 democratic held seats and 21 republican held seats. seats to take control of the house but they really need to pick up 19 republican seats because there is no realistic chance they can hold the north carolina seventh or the utah four. if you look at the mass and added up, they would need to win 43 of those 45 races be currently see as competitive in order to take back the house. that is something we've never

really seen before. the likelihood is republicans will make a small net gain in 2014 for three reasons. first of all, simply the history of the six year itch election, the pattern in a post-world war ii era where the party and the presidency loses an average of 29 house seats. second of all, the terrain and just the fact that the house is very well sorted out right now. there are only 17 republicans left in districts that president obama carry it. only nine democrats remain in district that romney carried, two of whom are in this room .oday then you get to the third factor which is the midterm turnout dynamic and this is something that flies under the radar a lot in the media but will be destiny in the 2014 midterm elections. who votes in the midterm hence

to be younger voters, wealthier voters. that never really used to matter because in terms of the generation gap, democrats and republicans were doing just about as well the voters 18-29 and 60 and older. what happens when you have president obama's approval rating 15 points better among voters in the younger age group than the older react os and as you have a midterm election, you have -- younger age group than the older? you have a midterm election the presidential year without any opinions changing. we're looking at a republican gain in the house of the single were heldthe election today. democrats need to sustain momentum from the government shut down into 2014 in order to have a chance of picking up seats. we will see if they can move the needle back over the course of

the next 10 months but i think we've gone from a place of talking about how moderates are a dying breed to moving on to the debate of if it turns around or if there are factors within the control of voices in the center. i think the first step for voices in the center and congress to realize is that there are societal forces at work here that are much larger than simply one election. i would argue that there are three trends that have andsformed the landscape reforms that those in the middle can consider the kind of move away from this polarization that we've seen. i look forward to discussing those trends today whether it is self sorting in the electorate, a decline of straight ticket voting or split ticket voting across the country rather.

or simply the prevalence of primaries and that force in the election moving members of congress to the polls. >> it's like a movie trailer. i have one very important thing to tail you but it will not be until the end. >> i would actually echo the plight and i would caution when they say this is the most decisive election in the course of history -- of course it is. it's the one you are involved in. overu look at the trend our career in politics there is a clear trend in where we are and where we are going in terms of polarization and hitting a new level of quality in polling and respect on a national level. when i started it was inconceivable. i was a house republican guy back when we thought there would a republican majority in the

house of representatives ever in my lifetime. it was inconceivable and we all wavered underneath that belief and thankfully that is far gone. this big trend where a lot is shifting. the number of the senate retirements and moderates, this just happens. we had to go through this process. if you look at the seats and a large number of these members have, they will be senators and they will get to their third term in many places. they will be able to see the number of democrats this year because of the political environment and that's another cycle that we are in right now. this cycle back and forth of therization combined with mission of this organization, the center of the electorate. it is very fractured and not monolithic except for what? disconnectedlly and it feels like washington and

the power everywhere whether it is business, big labor, politics , it does not give a rats you know what about that. they have been abandoned. that is the challenge going forward. it's one of the tremendous things obama brought in a candidate. suddenly there was going to be this different approach to things and named rahm emanuel and nancy pelosi as the vice chancellors and we went back into a highly polar rise to world and we will continue and that's where we will go on till the get the next president. that is the fact of where we are and politically, unfortunately, obamacare is just a train wreck at the minimum from public opinion point of view edits created a great opinion. it will be a good year for all of the democratic reasons -- demographic reasons. we are looking at been gains --

we are looking at big games. we will talk about that. one thing i would caution both my party and the democrats is history is not the person trying to force you to do something different. it's going to be some outside factor that will pull people's attention away from obamacare. who knows what that will end up being. the old phrase it's a lifetime in politics in the next 10 months and it certainly is but it will be a fascinating year. >> jeff. my beliefs about 2014 are a little bit different. i think of you look at some of the recent elections that we've , the concrete settled relatively early. that was definitely the case in the 2006 wave year and largely the case in 2010. but i don't really believe that the concrete has yet settled on 2014 elections. i think republican numbers have

rebounded since the government shut down which led to a sizable democratic advantage on the generic ballot. there was a cnn poll that showed republicans retaking an advantage on the generic ballot. i think there is still a great chance not only for an event- driven change in the generic like a problem stemming from another budget fight but also from the primaries and what did republican primaries deliver this year? if you look back at elections, the story is only in part republican gains in the house but i think in a larger sense it is the feeling for republicans to take back the senate. until i see an example of republican primaries delivering centrist candidates who can win general elections, it's going to

be pretty optimistic about the 2014 elections. one thing that will come into play is how macroeconomics intersect with party messaging. one of the things happening in america right now is that while productivity for workers continues to rise and corporate profits continue to rise, wages remain flat. if you are in a job and you are trying to support your family, your perception is that you are working hard and you are not being rewarded in particular for working hard. you are not necessarily making more money. it's harder to send your kids to college. you are struggling in spite of how hard you are working. think that's a feeling among the electorate that cuts across party lines. if you look at the anger that animated voters in 2010 and delivered a lot of republican gains, it's not all that different from the anger that

2006er democratic gains in and 2000 date. it's the feeling we're in a society where others are getting taken care of and others are doing well. democrats made the argument that it was the wealthy corporations and i think republicans pretty compellingly made the case that obamacare is going to provide insurance to people who did not have it which is not the people who were showing up to vote. the vast majority already had insurance so their perception was the government was delivering for people who were not them. also, i think we should not neglect the ways in which 2010 republicans ran to the left of democrats. republicans ran left of democrats on medicare in 2010.

a tendency tois think that the 2010 electorate was really animated by different way,es and it was, in some a real repudiation of what had happened in washington that i'm not all that convinced that the anger animating the writing on the left has been all that different. there is a center that is less polarized than what you see in washington and the congress that represents it. to 2014, forwarded we're going to keep an i am for some of the dynamics that we saw in 2010. one of which is seniors and which way they break. right after the 2010 election, use of a special election in new york and it was a race that was decided on medicare but on a very different way down the races 2010 had been decided on medicare. are also going to look at the people who have not

really done all that well in this economic recovery in the disproportionate number of people without college degrees. we will see women without theyge degrees, which way break because 2010 was an important way in which they broke against democrats. they lost the edge they had had in terms of who's on your side. i think we're also going to look at a lot of suburban areas that i think after 2000 date, democrats felt they had locked 8 like outside of richmond. optimistic. not only optimistic for democratic politicians and democrats like kay hagan in north carolina who are centrist, one of the most moderate members of congress but also for members as a whole.

i want to just go around one more time and then we can take questions. >> this is what i come back to. gallup had a poll this week, the party id poll. independent, 42%, highest it's ever been. find --the effort to 42% of the country thinks there are independent. i think we would all agree people don't like the two parties. if you say the late thing better at the moment than -- were standard democratic party is the republican party. people in congress, 33% of people -- everybody hates everybody. why when you have this large number of independent people do we have these efforts like in 2012, they tried to recruit an independent candidate, money behind it, and nominating convention and the person they picked was -- ron paul.

he was not even actively trying to get the nomination. what is the disconnect between the number of people when we all the grease a two party system is people the number of identified as independent, unaffiliated going up everywhere and the fact that he attempts to be in the center ideologically in a democratic or republican party or to actually form a center that is a part does not work. jeff, i will let you go first. the 42% independent number is inflated. and you ask people whether or not they lean towards democratic or republican, the independent number shrinks a lot. if you say you were independent but you lean towards one party, your behavior tends to be very similar to the people who flat out identify as being from that party. one of the other findings in

that gallup poll was that republican identification is at an all-time low. that does mean -- does not mean that there are less but a lot of them are self identifying. a lot of them are tea party. those with no party today tends to be more of a tea party universe and you had a third- party candidate on the ballot and how optimistic you were as a democrat depended on how much you expected a third-party most ofe -- once again, those voters went home to the republican party and they ended up doing well. looking at i'm people who self identify as a moderate and less that people who self identify as independent. >> i would say one of the critical things when you look at , people think that

independent and moderate are synonymous and the data would not at that they are in all. one theinelli independence over terry mcauliffe. he lost badly among moderates. won the so-called critical independent vote while losing the general election. we tend -- and i put myself in this category -- we say independent, moderate, they are not in fact the same thing. also add the label when someone calls them a swing .oter, these terms are fiction independents are more republican, moderates are more democrat, we differ on the

degree. with the commonality of that 42% in this area of polarization, they are polarized against the beltway, polarized against everybody in this room because we live in the washington area, they are against us because they have been trained through repetitive, painful experience that their interactions with government cause them pain and discomfort. i think jeff's earlier comments about the inequality issues, i think there's a lot to the idea that there's a group of people who are very distantly connected down the problem that the democrats have with that message into that audience is that those people no longer trust the democrats. a virus that been has convinced a large portion of that group of people that there is no solution that cares about them. they are trading one party and .he stigmas that people here

there are massive differences between the parties. >> people don't feel that. >> daily criteria of the difference is someone looking out for me, there's 42% of americans who say parties are the same and they don't care about me which creates a big dynamic out there and it's what we will be fighting over the selection. >> that brings me to the same question. environment, you would think would be ripe for candidates. i'm not saying why is there not a third-party right now? for a would be ripe candidate theoretically who said exactly what you just did. these people are not listening to you. i will. and yet, that kind of candidate that is a broad generalization, but that candidate does not seem to be

emerging as often as you would think looking purely from a political darwinist expect -- perspective that it would be good to have. are independent more republican leaning? in large part is because the word republican has become similarly a dirty word like the word liberal decades ago. there are many self identified conservatives in the electorate who have lost faith in the republican party establishment for spending too much over the last decade. they do not call themselves republicans when they are asked anymore. there is a slightly conservative tinge. this is why i expected 42% figure to only go up over the course of the next several years because younger voters have grown up in an era where they have lost the ability of them to come together and get things

done. the majority or the plurality really wants to see this happen. the question that i really have is what is the overlap between that 42% of independents and those who are really deciding who comes here. how many of them participate in primaries? in the case of many elections, and congressional primaries, we see participation rates of about 20% which means in many districts, 10% or fewer are actually selecting the member who comes to washington and votes on their behalf. how did those voices who were being underrepresented in washington, either enhance and expand participation in primary elections or open up the primary product altogether through the forms that the states like california have undertaken? >> it's all of the tall stories for a lot of primary voters, a lot of the most polarizing

people to come out of primaries have been those who are angry at washington and talk about how washington is broken. >> i want to ask one more question and then open it up. political polarization may be bad for getting things done in washington but as several groups mostly on the ride at this point, having the white house makes it harder, but they have proven that it may be bad for governance but it's good for business in that many groups have made their living and have the tedup by endorsing cruz is of the world, chris mcdaniel running against mississippi. is the rise of ted cruz, mike lee, rand paul -- i put them in a group even though i know there ,re quite clear the differences

your point is that we are not really in and anomalous time. we just think we are. conservative republican and i looked at the federalist tapers and i think our government is not the sign to move fast. they fear a government of passions of the moment making big radical decisions like changing 1/6 of our economy on partyline votes. >> i don't know what you are referring to. >> that's not what the founders wanted. i like the idea that it has complications, problems, slows things down. -- madison said the factions come by. you have tea party movements which are far more fractured which i'm sure moveon.org is more fractured than i realized. is good.any

when you add what i think is a really smart system that forces all of these groups to fight, i think it's healthy that all of these are coming in. i oppose labour in a lot of situations. it's great that they are in the mix and trying to fight. the problem we have now and our large country of 300 million plus people is they have a political structure where it takes a massive amount of name identification and resources to run a campaign for a congressional seat. you want reform, you want to change, all this talk about money and all of this stuff is irrelevant and my opinion generally bad. you want to unhinge the system in a healthy way, take the house up to like 1000 people over 1200 people and who knows what that cause for the seats but grassroots movements will be

able to compete in their local elections. the math that you talk about is you will be able to have local candidates. you might see an emergence. a greens a time when party actually won an assembly seat and a few other isolated places. entity, you cannot hold them against the forces in our society. there are all of these other factors out there that are communications structures and others. make the seats smaller and the grassroots will matter more. isolated causes will matter more. you will still have your large variety of colorful individuals in the house of representatives but you will have lots of opportunities. if somebody is wrong in the andunity and the relief -- it will be defined smaller whether this is a moderate, dynamic independent, whatever that will be able to seriously threaten that person which will then have a different effect on how legislation is in the house. >> did we have a poll on adding

more politicians to washington? very much in are favor of expanding the house of representatives in 2012. in newmember when i was hampshire to cover the presidential and like every third person you ran into was in the state legislature because it is 400 plus people. it was massive. , is there ant changereform that could who we send here? the problem is everyone gets here. why are they voting like this? that is what the people who elected them to do one. dave, i'm sure, has the number. the number of those who get elected with 55% or under is a pittance.

that is including a lot of people who may not be in the party but it seems to me we are on the wrong end of the problem. they are doing what they are sent here to do. is there reform to change it in your mind? >> let me start by responding to the attacks on obama care which i promise is not off-topic. [laughter] >> i'm skeptical, but go ahead. not onlycare part d, in terms of policy over passage but also in terms of the trajectory of the polling it was first introduced, there was a lot of confusion. they could not figure out how to sign up because a lot of the mechanisms were similar to the mechanisms of obama care the government created program where you sign up through a private provider. the toll numbers were exasperated. democrats shared the goal of providing prescription drug

coverage to people. when you're out from the election, the assumption was medicare part he would be disastrous. one year later, it was working very differently and it ended up being a boon. you have 10 million people with insurance right now who did not have insurance before obamacare. kids onludes 5 million their parents insurances. people are going to have benefits that have accrued by obamacare by the time you get to the next election and i think it's wrong to judge a program that has covered 10 million people after a few months and guaranteed coverage for those facing pre-existing conditions due to the failure of a website. there's a big difference between the perceptions of obamacare and whether or not they favor or oppose the individual elements of that. when you test whether or not they want a, b, c, d, contained within obamacare and part of that is now it's a couple of

years old, but you had over 5 million sent through the elections not just on lobbying for obamacare but running ads attacking it. we live in the citizens united era of unfettered contributions from dark money. you saw the recent article that $400 million coming from the koch brothers -- crexendo to look out for my own. like strong journalism. >> kay hagan has been the number one recipient of those dollars and the attacks coming out of those dollars. i remember asking myself at the end of the year whether we just live in a new era. people assume they understand the impact of citizens united because we saw it in 2012. that was a dry run. i started asking myself at the end of last year when we were seeing the million dollar ad eyes against hagan whether we live in a new regime where the ads are just starting the year before and they never go dark.

they never calmed down. theink if you look at branding of obamacare, very different from how people feel about the individual component because of the money spent the fighting it negatively. if you look at the senate races and how much money has been spent thus far out, if you want to avoid that kind of polarization that we have right now, part of the solution and one of the reforms is .verturning citizens united clicked the hugo chavez eliminating free speech in the country is the solution. that's a nice history, but for those of us who are maybe a little older, grayer -- >> you pulled that same line at my party. clicked he said it to my grandfather. >> 1995-1996 after we took the majority in the house for the first time, labor unleashed $35

million campaign in an off year of robo calls and tv ads blitzing all of the republican incumbents and this is not soft dark money because it comes from confiscated money held by labor unions. point where i go factionsetting the fight it out. get everybody into the arena. politics is not pretty. argue over the issues. we can certainly argue over obamacare. pre-existing conditions, children under 26, they are powerful arguments for the democratic side and they been using it recently and in the past. the tab that fight. let's have everyone out there arguing as loud as they can. it's not pretty. it's unsettling to watch a family argument. how many of us have been at thanksgiving when a family arrived in a fight? it's good for the republican that is when we need. if you want to weaken that

money, give the grassroots more power. clicked can i take this in a different direction you? began before citizens united. there are three causes icy out there that are worth addressing to chris's question. the first is really the notion of right marries. i think there ought to be more discussion of what can be done to open a primary is whether it is a california-style to reduce the extent to which members of congress are simply playing to the primary base. that has become very prevalent as a result of the fact that we have such polarized district. what is polarizing the district cap go first of all, this is something that is beyond the control. you cannot tell people where to move. 30 8.6% of the american electorate lived in counties

that were landslide counties them at least 60% of the two party vote. in 2012, the number was a majority for the first time. independent every district in in the last election, 76% of democratic leaning congressional seats -- this is the nerd coming out in me, but they got more 67% that even more republican independent of redistricting. thatd to be a big believer redistricting reform was the answer. i still believe it's part of the answer. i think a majority of the andrization comes from it it has compounded that effect by continuing to eliminate seats where voices in the middle really cannot prevail or have an to vote a certain way in congress. third of all, i think we need to

talk about the decline in split ticket voting we are seeing across the country the cousin used to be that if you had a member of congress or a candidate who had a background that was totally flawed, they would usually run under the top of the ticket. what do we see in 2012? there is a candidate in tennessee, an incumbent to basically admitted to having relationships with patients while he was a doctor and trying to convince one to have an abortion. old system, maybe 10 or 20 years ago, i think you probably would have won 10 or 15 points below the ticket. he ran eight points below mitt romney and still won the election. i think the question for a lot of people here is how do you get voters to pay attention to candidate background and

positions and evaluate them on a race by race basis rather than simply responding to the visceral attitudes towards national parties? part of that has to do with revising local media and making are attuned tos what's happening in the rent district rather than reacting to what's happening in washington. question,local media i'm not terribly optimistic until be revived because of the business model. anyone in journalism is well aware of, but one thing i would say is that there's a huge amount of record that they have not had nearly to the extent of a family-owned newspaper or many other local newspapers and they work with people who chris christie repeatedly credited, oddly enough, breaking the news about what i like to call bridge-nado or bridge gate. i think they reserve -- deserve a lot of credit. , part ofrgen record

which is the density and if you you either have to care about what the dictator of new york city wants to do or you have to read the bergen record to learn what's going on in your community. >> its uniquely hsinchu waited. -- it is uniquely situated. i think the polls have consistently shown that a majority of the public either supported the affordable care act or thought it was not liberal enough. --this day, consistently it's never deviated, yet you hear the notion that republicans are positive this is the gift that keeps on giving and the polls are quite different. i'm wondering if you can explain it. the democrats have not done a good job. you saw this pew study that came out that showed a fairly

substantial majority of republicans do not believe in evolution whereas democrats and sameendents were at the spot believing in evolution. you think the tea party would not be the one to do not believe in evolution yet evidence suggests they would deviate yet independents are lined up with democrats and it's gotten worse , fewer republicans believing in evolution. not a lot of new data. i'm wondering if that kind of gives you any insight into the electorate that matters that they can seize upon. >> let's talk about obamacare. talked to,lican i dan included, says this is it. and things spending, if you have not watched it, you should. it's against jeanne shaheen. ins is an ad you will see thousands of very small

iterations across the country and it essentially had the, if you like your plan, you can keep it. if the lie of the year according to politicize and at the end there's a picture of jeanne shaheen saying, if you like your senator, you can keep her. if not, you know what to do. absolutelycans are is theed that obamacare issue that this election will be decided on and will elicit significant republican gains. then i will let jeff maybe disagree. >> i think there's a fascinating answer. if we press properly, we could do a four day examination of exactly your question because there are pieces of the affordable care act, pre- existing conditions, that are incredibly popular and people

like the idea. all of us, myself included, no people for who this is a significant economic benefit for their family, but the larger picture of obamacare and the affordable care act has not pulled consistently popular. it's what you are looking at. right now -- and i think jeff would agree -- public reception at this moment, and even more so attitudes holidays, are what they think they are doing to our country is really affecting the center of the electorate and telling them that washington, whether they had it for the right or wrong reasons, they botched this whole thing and it's a train wreck. democrats say they are going to get to a point where all the pain is behind us and the milk and honey is ahead. that is what they want in the election right now.

they are about now and what we can shake to a degree. right now it's really unpopular amongst big chunks of the elect are at because people are losing and i think jeff would agree that there are pieces people .ike even in the same moment they say they dislike it but we saw this with medicare part the. people didn't like the government spending but they like the fact that the paramedics -- parents were getting more. this is an example of washington blowing it. >> to your point, dave mentioned this earlier, about midterms being a very different electorate than a presidential, older him a wider, more favorable to republicans. level view this as some of bass election, the people who are going to turn out are not

me casual voter, it seems to -- i will cite a post-poll from december, 88% of republicans had an unfavorable view of how president obama had handled the health care law. this was in the heart of it. were strongly unfavorable in terms of trying to figure out passion. , 42% or so ofide democrats were strongly favorable. 77% versus 42%. is there not a passion gap? midterm elections is a base turnout model. that's not a difference for you and how you solve the? answer was in the question. the number on the affordable care act has always been deflated that some percentage of

the voters don't like it because it did not go far enough. a publict include option equivalent of medicare provided by the government. dan, as a student of history, may recall that most of these were originally proposed by the heritage foundation in 1993, a republican alternative to hillary clinton's plan. this makes republican polarization seem more a matter of anti-obama and less a matter .f policy this is due to the fact that the law was a centrist law that was designed to elicit republican votes but did not because of polarization in the senate chasing olympia snowe's vote. does that change?

let's not dispute that. regardless of whether the and easy as him is because some feel they did not go far enough, does it change thedoes basic dynamic? republicans are going to go through freezing rain on obamacare.y against the data today would suggest even some liberal democrats are less passionate. you guys are dealing in the realities of what we have now to persuade voters. you are not going to see lower democratic enthusiasm from 2010 where you had a record share of the electorate that self identified as conservative. you also have continuing demographic changes that lead to an electorate where, even if it

looks more like 2010 than it does 2012, still does not look as bad as 2010. in a state like florida, the number of new hispanics since 2006 is higher than the number of jewish voters. if you look at nevada in 2010 where harry reid got elected, the percentage of hispanic voters was as high as it was in 2008. even if you have an electorate more conservative, more white, there's not a lot of chance it's going to be as bad as it was in 2010. >> we have not touched all that much on it but i think the 2012 election, i will give you a chance to not acknowledge it. problems for the party demographically. the electorate getting less .hite, more hispanic

71% amongobama gets hispanic voters. as dave and dan pointed out, the massive victory in 2010 did not redact a massive victory or a victory at all in 2012. the same lessons from 2014 may carry to 2016. >> you have a point. they are less important in the short term than they are in the short term. i don't think they are necessarily doomed but it takes a new candidate who can actually connect and score well that tempe -- cares enough to revive the republican party with those voters. looking back at the list of democrats who voted against the affordable care act when it passed in 2010 and a kind of "where are they now?"

21 have lost reelection, seven have retired, and of the remaining six two are retiring in 2014 which leaves four. veryf whom has run effectively in his own district and articulated his own position against the law. well will both parties in tough districts articulated message of fixing the law? to try and resonate with voters who are not black-and-white on obamacare but recognize there are big problems and want to see some action in congress to fix what's wrong with the legislation. >> let me take a few more questions. yes ma'am.

>> thanks. is this on? about aca,ng obamacare. they say republicans are not fair to the obama administration. democrats say it would be so much better if hillary clinton would have won. a lot of the criticism is that the clintons know how to deal with washington. they are from the beltway, and the beltway, know how to deal. it have been different in a clinton administration? would it have had less polarization than what we have now? wen she wins in 2014, will be less polarized going forward? you talked about the house- ization of the senate. if you could comment on the

confirmation rule changes in the senate and how it makes it more like the house and potential repercussions of that? do we get to a point where that goes to the supreme court for nominees or will they stay where they are now? >> i will quickly do the second monday and we will go to these for the first one. it is my belief that if you think the wiping away of the 60- the vote barrier for executive branch nominees and judicial nominees below the supreme court will only say that group of people forever, you have not watched politics for very long. it seems to me the door is now open. i would say harry reid, who opposed these changes for a very ofg time for fear apublicans in the majority as fanciful one for fear that the pendulum would swing.

he went to the liberals pushing it and said -- look. we are opening a pandora's box. we will not always be in the majority. we may not even be after the selection. they probably said, we are ok with that. it's worth it to us in the near term. they have been pushing for years . it's got huge implications. my parents don't have any clue what cloture is. they just don't. it is not a persuade issue. washington works, this is a sea change. ok. jeff, let's start with you. >> would things be different if hillary clinton was president?

>> if i was seven feet tall, i would be in the nba, but hypotheticals are hypotheticals. ord paul or marco rubio chris christie. is there a candidate out there on either side that breaks that? if elected in 2016? well, first, i do not think there was anyone at the time when clinton was getting impeached, looking at that as an error of less polarization. >> the golden days. >> the golden era in washington. i think you did have a lot of people with experience from the clinton white house in the first term of the obama administration.