>> we will have more on the u.s. economy in just a moment. a little bit about our newsmakers program. tomorrow the director of the consumer financial protection bureau is our guest this week. he talks about how the financial marketplace is treating consumers. >> most have been worried about the mortgage market.

the mortgage market is clearly the reason the economy blew up in 2008. lots of americans were harmed. it is a market that has been troubled in many respects, both on the lending and servicing side. have just come out with some new mortgage rules. the housing market is starting to recover from the subprime crash. why do you think these rules are going to help the market as opposed to hurt it and limits mortgages? , a couple of things, -- >> a , the samethings things our community banks and credit unions have been doing for a long time, making sure there they lend money person borrowing the money will be able to repay it. they're not being set up to

fail, they are being set up to succeed. it was not the norm in the mortgage market in the last decade. place, that back into some of this cleaned up after the crisis because some of the bad loans cannot be made. we want to make sure the framework does not allow us to get into the same kind of problem again. the biggest thing is the access long before rules to credit.to just -- long before the rules came along -- we did take account of that. to provide rule safeguards for mortgages that are being offered in the marketplace today and we included special exemptions for community banks and credit unions to continue the kind of

lending we think have been very responsible, has performed well, and has served a lot of our communities. >> you can watch that interview on newsmakers sunday at 10 a.m. and 6 p.m. eastern. more now on the u.s. and global economy from christine lagarde. she spoke at the national press club and answered reporters questions for about an hour. >> our guest today is the first woman at the helm of the international monetary fund and the first woman to hold a finance minister job in a g7 country. thestine lagarde has led imf for 2.5 years, ring which time she has been emerged -- immersed in the economic crisis.

which took over she was not new to the u.s. capitol. capitoled at the u.s. as an aide to then representative william cowan, or she helped him correspond with his french-speaking constituents during the watergate hearings. [laughter] a onetime member of the french national synchronized swimming she and a labor lawyer, became the first female chairman of baker mckenzie. earlier in her career, at a job interview in a law firm in paris, she was told she would never become partner because she was a woman. career, she would stress equal opportunities for women, encouraging them to work and advance their careers. french government in june 2000 five as minister for foreign trade. she worked briefly as a minister

for agriculture and fisheries and in 2007 became france's head of finance. the body ofired economics and finance ministers of the european union. this experience with the eu bureaucracy came in handy when shooting negotiated the foil out of greece. that's when she negotiated the fail out of greece. with europe slowly emerging from the deep recession and the u.s. dealing with its own budget issues, she expressed optimism about the global economy in the recent weeks, saying the imf will raise its outlook for the u.s. and global economy. she remains concerned about the global recovery in an even and subdued and about the slowing of emerging economies.

she said the risk of heightened volatility in financial markets creates new challenges in the emerging markets economy. in the u.s. she is urging the approveshareholders to the increase of imf lending capacity and allow more say in developing countries. clearly for the iron lady of the global economy, the challenges are far from over. matters,bout these please join me in giving a warm national press club welcome to managing director of the imf, christine lagarde. [applause] >> i had to stand up at the time

when my immediate predecessor would sit down and clearly i failed. afternoon and thank you very much for having me with you. i would like to thank the national press club and forcially the president inviting me to this prestigious venue and presenting the outline of what i want to talk to about now. let me begin by wishing you all a happy new year. i guess it is still time to do that given that we are just halfway through between western new year and the lunar new year, which will loom in. it is appropriate given what i am talking about, which has to do with the global economy and what we should expect for 2014.

i'm going to test your numerology skills but ask you to think about the magic seven. can press theyou numbers as well. 2014 -- dropabout , two times seven. we are just going to carry on. a milestone and hopefully a magic year in many respects. it marks the 100th anniversary after the first world war back in 1914. that action gave birth to the

imf. -- that actually gave birth to the imf. it was the 25th anniversary of the fall of the berlin wall. it will also mark the seventh anniversary of the financial market that quickly turned into the greatest global economy calamity since the great depression. the crisis still lingers. the air.is in the horizon looks just a bit brighter. ishope and my wish for 2014 after those seven miserable fragile, we had a seven strong years. i doubt the g7 had anything to do with it. i certainly hope the imf has

something to do with it. is this wishful thinking? no. randomlyll not happen without us together and policymakers making the right decisions. organizing themselves in a coordinated way. the global about outlook and then i would like to touch on the policies that i believe will help us transform those seven miserable years into seven strong years. to anticipate some questions that some of you might be tempted to ask, by just clearly that i'm not going to give you the number of revised world economic outlook number that will be 21.losed on january suffice to say that it will be

as ationally positive revision. but i'm going to discuss the main trends. the economic strengthen during the latter half of 2013 and we believe it will continue to strengthen in 2014, largely due time proavment in the economies. i've gothat, directionally positive movement. growth is still stuck in fairly low gear. remains below potential. create more jobs than we do have at the moment and we could do that without having to the inflation genie bolts.out of the with that positive initial i would also like to add that it will not be without

downside risk and significant ones. with inflation running way below bank targets in most corners, clearly we are seeing rising risk of deflation, which could prove disastrous for the recovery. if inflation is the genie, then the ogre.deflation is that must be fought decisively. during the years of crisis, we have relied heavily on the emerging market economies and on the low income economies to be of growth. and if you combine those two categories, emerging and low income countries, they produced actually about three quarters of global growth. growing number of those emerging market economies slowing down as the economy cycle turns. one of the risks that we see going forward.

risks arising out of the financial market turbulence of capitalatility flows. the reaction to the fed's so far, has been calm and this is partly due to the fact that we had had a dry run june.n may and it is good news that this reaction was calm, but there could still be some rough waters ahead. overall, as i said, the direction is positive. but global growth is still too fragile, and two uneven. as it is, or as we forecast that it latest be, thes not enough to create 200 million jobs that are needed by people who are looking for a the world.ere in additionally, in too many countries, actually most countries, the benefits of are being enjoyed by far

too few people. give an example in the of incometes, 95% the topnce 2009 went to 1%. growth gainscome went to the top 1%. now, this is not a recipe for stability, and not a recipe for ability. let's now turn to the policy .ecommendation because all of that really points to the fact that policy makers all need to stay focused. focused on the policies that are needed for sustainable and inclusive growth as well as jobs.ing we so far have certainly avoided case scenario, ask all part ofakers have made the necessary efforts. those that went clearly way

of duty were the central bankers. keep interestto rates low, low, and the financial system functioning while government in most places fiscal stimulus where they could, and applied adequate sometimes a bit too much fiscal should.ation where they the road has certainly been difficult, and continues to be edward morrow once said, difficulty is the excuse never accepts. now that the global economy more stable, the big priority for policy makers from our point of view in 2014 is to be to fortify the feeble global recovery and make it sustainable.

great. mean in practice? i'm going to run you through the advanced economies that i will take by groups, then the the low markets, then income countries as to what we coordinatedood policy mix that should be applied in order to secure and andngthen that growth create those jobs. if we look at the advanced it means first, what is that you remember what i said about the monetary policy as the central banks. well, central banks are going to slightly gradually over communicatederly undo what they have done. do that should not until growth is robust enough rooted.ly so the way in which tapering is way in which from unconventional to conventional

they return, will have to be well timed. time, countries will need to use the room created by policies tontional put in place the reforms that are needed to jump start growth jobs. so it's not just for central bankers to do some policy work, also for the other players. in terms of budgetary policy in particular. now, let me go deeper and touch on the different regions. look first at the largest economic player in the world, the united states. growth in the united states is certainly picking up, driven essentially by private demand. and that recovery that we have thatved in 2013, unfortunately was dragged by the of 2013,nsolidation will be helped by the loosening

fiscal corset as a result deal. recent budget still it will be critical to tour withdrawal of monetary support and to return budget process, including removing the threat of the debt ceiling. now at the euro area, that is clearly turning the corner from recession to recovery. growthn you drill down, is still unbalanced with some countries growing reasonably well and some economies doing quite well and others still behind. and some of those are actually suffering from significant high and credit constraints as well. so here monetary policy can to help. clearly the e.c.b. has done to facilitate the

financing of the economy. but it can do more and we so in athat it can do very targeted way by facilitating targeted lending in particular in order to avoid the financial fragmentation that is thel there despite unconventional policy that has been applied including forward guidance. we believe that the forthcoming asset quality and stress test will take place in the course of 2014 is going to help if it is done even handedly and credible manner. and obviously well communicated well. in the you'd row area -- also believe there is a need to accelerate reforms, labor participation, and that applies across most euro countries. let's now turn to japan. boost fromhe initial

s have beenrrow effective, but it is weakening a bit. temporary fiscal stimulus that have been abrownsed by prime minister will actually offset or partially offset the negative the necessary consumption tax increase, which ofone step in the process increasing consumption tax. for japan islenge to agree on medium term fiscal adjustments. medium term. economic and social reforms that we believe are growth instrengthen japan. what do i mean by that? deregulating the service and product markets that is highly regulated and protected, and that's what i mean by social reforms.

that women in the japanese economy can actually market.he job i'm very pleased actually that prime minister abbey has to that recommendation and that he's including in his budget for 2014 significant amount of spending on day care women. for japanese now, moving away from the advanced economies, let's look at the emerging markets. now, the challenge there is be to navigate any bumpiness and stay strong. makers may be wary of any signs of financial excess, and they should, especially in the form of asset bubbles or rising including through back door channels or off balance instruments. financial regulation need to be strengthened and implemented in able to better manage credit cycles.

countries also could do more on the structural front. in the by investing necessary infrastructure in a well managed and with a good order to remove the bottlenecks that some of those emerging market economies face have grown quite steadily over the last five years. what about low income countries? good.he news is generally these countries have really been the bright spot of the global economy. but now is the time to lock in those gains and to make sure some of the things they have used during the financial crisis have been reinstitutessed -- reinstituted. the cons scwengs external shocks that could result from capital flows that could weak ten growth in the

emerging market economies that typically the trading and investment partners of those low income countries. in addition, countries should keep those countries, the low addition tories, in building the bosses, including by raising revenues, frankly, theuse they have had benefit of strong growth, but we haven't seen in those economies proportional and increase of their revenue, so they have to focus on that. on they also should keep spending effectively and selectively on important social and infrastructure projects. i have to say that i'm just coming back from two fast world. regions of the i was just before christmas in cambodia, myanmar and korea, which is certainly not in the category of the low and i just gots, back from south africa, kenya and mali. regions have grown at the rate.

respectively, and often weear in d.c. tend to forget the massive movements that are taking place those markets. and how those economies are on go, how the middle class is actually building and the economic power is strengthening those areas. everything is relative. let's face it, anybody who has mali will not say that the middle class is rising and everything is rosie, no. changese are massive under way and the speed at which they are taking place is just phenominal. will not close that sort of the global economy without mentioning the arab countries in transition. you are right that we had to spend quite a bit of time on europe, we have also spent a lot of time on the arab countries in transition to try to help them strengthen their in order to restore some political stability going

forward. years agoly three int the arab strain started tune eastern aand spread out to the rest of the region. as these countries grap well the reforms needed to unleash dynamism of their private sector and create more jobs for people, they need international support in a significant way. and not just from next-door neighbors. so i've tried to take you through the various regions of the world, both in terms of we see those economies, where we see them going forward, describe thed to policies and the coordination of policies that they should apply. say thatsn't mean to there are no issues that actually cut across those different groups. that require common results, solutions to common problems. think about the legacy of public

private debt, for instance. andk about the fiscal current account consolidation. think about the reforms to the financial system that do not apply only by virtue of the dodd acrossct but that apply the board, because just like likeonmental threat, just contagious disease, those issues know no borders. same is true with rising inequality. as i mentioned to you, rising gone to 1% of the population. me ofou will say to course it's the result of the improvement of the security market. because of that. so those are problems that cut across all groups of countries. they are not abstract challenges. them's only by addressing that we can actually ensure future prosperity, that we can rising aspiration of the young people in those

countries and global citizens more generally. for jobs, for security, for opportunity, and for dignity. will conclude, at the to thei made reference conference here in this country about 70 years ago, and the multilateral -- i.m.f.funding of the amongst others to. move forward and for the i.m.f. to continue supportive force, an ally and partner of financial stability that is needed for all economies to prosper, we need the same spirit of cooperation and global solidarity today. and people sometimes worry, they wonder and they say, you know, why is it that the i.m.f. is supporting europe at the moment? and i remind them, back 70 years the first countries that had the benefit of i.m.f. support

european countries, like my country. france was actually the first the i.m.f., and then it moved around the planet. had to help latin american countries. countries.elp asian we are helping african countries through our basis different lines of businesses. and we're helping europe at the moment. and it will be another group of countries next time around. now, i believe that the i.m.f. can play an especially valuable toe here as a forum not just lend and then collect back as we also to operate as a forum for cooperation, for coordination. we have certainly played our part in the collective response to the crisis. less than 154o lending commitments and provided assistance to 90% of onsetsbership, since the

of the crisis in 2008. and we've provided our best to alle policy advice members. one of the strengths of the i.m.f. is that we actually see bigger picture. and it's not me being arrogant about it. to look under the skin of the economy of 188 members. compare besto practices, and we have to offer that actually take into account what spillover effects will be as a result of the domestic policy decided by one country or the other. no other institution can do that at that level. and the roles will certainly time. more important with we need to continue to adopt and to reflect the changing dynamics global economy and of our membership. that is why we need the continued support of our entire

membership. with, well, i will end with one thing. i just would like to pay credit to your association, and through the journalists who very often have this commitment to honesty. and do that sometimes in very verycult circumstances in far away places where they take risks, much more so than we often think of. and i will end with another icon journalism here. burgundy.'t mean ron ( laughter ) i mean walter cronkite. he actually says, you all know what he says, but he says i've heardhich president chirac say so many in french version, of course, during cabinet meetings. he used to say after having described something happening in the world, and all of us, sort waiting to see what we could c' and he would say voila,

est come ca. and walter cronkite used to say, and that's the way it is. thank you very much. [applause] >> thank you. we have lots of questions on lots of topics from all around the world. let's start here in the u.s. what's your reaction to the u.s. congress leaving the increase in the i.m.f. budget out of the bill?s spending and do you plan, have you met with our lawmakers in recent any more do you plan meetings now that that decision made?to have been >> is that the only question on the u.s.? no, okay, good. )laughter well, i did say so right after announcement of the deal, which in and of itself is great,

to have a deal on the budget, no matter what the deal was going to say, is a good indication that there is in a mores to work orderly fashion. of it's, i hope, one step many. and i certainly hope that in the come, the i.m.f. reform will be included. that it's ach hope question of timing and not a question of determination to i.m.f. the i would find it extraordinary and very disconcerting, actually, given that the monetary fund was actually created in the united states, largely at the sort of joint initiative of treasury secretary white from this country and lord canes from the kingdom. and given the fact that the

mission is to with, and ensure the best possible financial which is in the world, clearly in the interest of all all thes, first amongst u.s. economy, which is clearly the largest player, my largest shareholder, and one that is bound to have a vested interest stability.l so i very much hope that it is the i.m.f. working and all its members, but essentially as far as this country is concerned, the united states of america. yes. and have i worked with lots of people? i have. ( laughter ). >> and what is your strategy for twisting those arms to get a different result when the u.s. budget bill?next >> you know, my partners at the table will tell you that i have never been in the business of

twisting articles, which is i'llbly the reason why never be a very good politician. hand, believer that time is on our side, number one. and number two, that the merits suffice to should convince those in charge that for good,lly a force and it's a force for economic development and financial stability, which is not only no the interest of the entire planet but in the interest of economic players including of course the united states of america. and given the role that it can play in the institution, what i continuings that by to explain what we do, why we do it, what principles we do it in the name of, i hope that sensible and common sense prevail.will >> does the i.m.f. still have a

quota in for the 2010 governance reform? >> now, this is coded language, not everybody knows about this. so i'm going to explain just for a second. the 2010 reform was a decision made by all members of the i.m.f., particularly the g20 countries because that's where it was really essentially pushed, but it was decided for the i.m.f. actually strengthen the institution, to give it more permanent financial strength, to intervene where it was needed, was called the doubling of the quotas. quotam.f. is a institution. and the second part of the change the board composition of the i.m.f. so that there would be less thepean representation on board and more voice, votes, quota, available for emerging

countries that were underrepresented. was the genes of the 2010 reform. completetment was to the reform by the end of 2012. of 2013,w at the end beginning of 2014, and we're the threet of one of thresholds to actually complete the united, and states support is vital for that. >> what are the repercussions of action in, oness' your european programs and their support among developing countries? about the'm not sure intention of the question, but for all the programs that we for the together, both european countries, then the and lots ofuntries, other programs that we have, i mean just to give you an

programs withve jordan, with tunisia, with morocco. we have a program with pakistan. there are lots of other countries, it's not just as if i.m.f. is working for the euro area. developed,ams are negotiated in partnership with the governments on the ground, taken back to the board of the i.m.f. and approved by board. of the and once the program is program, it becomes the of the country, and it's very important that the country actually takes ownership of that program. is fully supported by the board. board.ire >> do you see the u.s.' failure as acrease the funding turning point for the future of the i.m.f.? i no, not at all, because really think that, you know, as keyad economy, as the partner at the table the united

are bound torica institution. and we work for stability, we work for the economic developments, and it's in the interest of the entire membership, as i've said, but clearly in the interest of the united states as well that there be stability. had notsume that we been able to help the euro area had been and there gullies in that part of the world. it's a key partner for the states, and so it's a key economic region in the world. in disarray,n everybody would have suffered as a result. so i think everybody is interested, including the u.s. fed, what is the your assessment of the impact of the globalering on economy? difficult to a bit say, because they're beginning

now. they've sort of hinted back in may and june that they might be looking into tapering, and that a dressa bit of rehearsal of what it might be. more than a dress rehearsal, i helped everybody anticipate what the outcome of the tapering could be, and that countries, particularly emerging market economies, prepare for the potential tapering much this is what has taken place in the last six months. willat the consequences be? difficult to predict. but the announcement that was december certainly did not produce the, did not produce the outcome that we saw in may and june. expect thatpefully most of the anticipation has now ifen place, and tapering conducted gradually, if well communicated as it was the case should not produce massive effects. there will be consequences, movely, because you don't

as significantly yet gradually as is announced without consequences. but we don't anticipate massive, heavy and serious consequences it. >> what would a premature fed look like?ble >> premature exit? timetable. >> why should we speculate on been clearly it's announced that it would not be, that it would be gradual, that would be anchored in various that haveriterias some flexibility about how the the fed will read them. but it doesn't seem that there prematurity to be feared. you know, prematurity would butil all sorts of things, clearly because people have thought about it, it's unlikely

happen. so why should i speculate? won't. ( laughter ). >> looking to the fed leadership, much attention is being paid to the fact that janet yellen is the first female fed chair. your own perspective, what is the significance of that? anything.men can do ( laughter ). [applause] particularly janet. >> on the topic of women, in addition to ms. yellen, we of course now have as of this week, g.m., womenunning heads of state in korea and chile and this is all in recent months. are we finally starting to see real change in terms of women in roles?op leadership >> i would say that those

very welcome. said, in africa just recently, met with representatives of the corporate sector in kenya, and was really happy to see that the head of and a few other countries around was also a woman. as if it was a token appointment to show up with a woman at the helm. determinationar and there is a clear potential i hope being tapped, and will continue to be tapped. but i think it requires constant well.nce as >> looking at women who are not necessarily at the top, you talked about the importance of care in japan, tell us a little more about the importance of women in the as itsional workplace concerns global economic growth. it's an area you've studied. besideser countries japan do you see positive development and where do you see concern?r

>> there can be political developments pretty much across the board. we've done, the analysis that we've conducted leads us to believe that it's a across the board. it's never a negative. and there are countries where it's more so the case. is one. a country like saudi arabia is one. like the united states of america as well, could andfit from better facilitated access of women to the workplace. so as i said, it's across the board a plus, and in some countries where the hurdles, the obstacles, the cultural more pronounced there's a potential higher upside to them joining the work thee, but it's across board. >> you told us in your speech that we will not be getting a the economic forecast next week, much as we would like to. but on the topic of forecasting, address the critique that the i.m.f.'s forecasts are

one back yard looking based data? rather than true predictions looking forward? i.m.f. works on models, so clearly you develop your basis of historical data. stophen we don't just there. we don't just run numbers through models to sort of develop.e and we also check with what we call have 188ry desks, we country desks that include financial, sometimes experts, focusing on those particular markets. use their knowledge, they're close to the ground, understanding where things are going. and then they read, not from tea leaves, but they read from the they readndicators, from what's happening both at the private sector level, but obviously on the basis of the policy mix decide bid the countries. of botha combination that leads us to forecast.

at as a lawyer background and noneconomist by background, i say that i forecast is a forecast is a forecast. and it's then proven true or wrong. and the closer to the truth the better we are, but it's a forecast. we try to do it as well as we can. >> the questioner says a year or two the term currency wars was very popular, but we haven't heard as much about them recently, although we are a lot about currency. are currency wars over now? talks, there was a big about it, and i think it was the finance minister of brazil who the first place. it was about three years ago actually. we don't see the currency war. and clearly in our models, we a much better alignment of currencies relative to the economies, added to which, you know, the

have beenools that used by those countries when flows, whenapital there were movement on currencies, have been adequate to facilitate a much more consistent and harmonious monetary system. so, no, there's none of that at moment. >> you've suggested that there needs to be more than one reserve currency. how do you see more currencies whating over time and over time frame? back, you seeok that, for instance, the british pound, gradually over time and it was ofelerated by the wars course, lost its role as a reserve currency. the u.s. dollar went up. this is a reflection of, i combination of the strength of the economy and the confidence that the rest of the in that economy.

so it would actually take both for more reserve currency to, not necessarily rival, but join the u.s. dollar as a reserve currency. i think we will see that. period of time, i don't have a clue. would you assess the stability of the global banking and what this point, more needs to be done to shore that up? banking system is certainly more stable than it ago, that's really a truism. that a lot believe more needs to be done. been significant work conducted by the basel brings all theh financial and monetary experts together, which is a bit of an group no matter how much we've heard about them. there's been a lot of work done f.s.b., the financial stability board.

national regulatory levels and legislative levels there has been a lot of work in various corners of the world, here in this country, in europe as well with several directives that have now taken .lace, but i would say that there is the work to be done on issue of cross border resolution, for instance, if we had a major financial institution that was in significant trouble and if such troubles were to expand beyond the borders of one country, you cross borderue of resolution is not yet stablized and resolved. that on derivative product market, there is still work to be done as well. think that we need to think more and we are doing that need to think we more about the consequences of these financial regulatory apply to theey emerging markets, but more solo

income countries. are clearly seeing now a translation of some of the financial movements affecting income countries, and we need to be wary of that. >> what about derivatives the u.s., are you comfortable where this country is at on that? >> i think it's not just in that country. that's the point i was trying to make. we had itruments, and back seven years ago when we had no idea where those products much there was, where were the counterparties, and i clearingt the platforms have to be strengthened. more has to be coordination between the various markets, i think that's where we need more. not just a u.s. issue. >> questioner says a consensus that the developed world, particularly central banks, should accept or at least inflation.gher what is your opinion on that? >> well, if only inflation could high as the high end of the target of the central banks,

it would already be quite good, we're not there. be ast think that it can forward and one size fits all, as the question would imply. it needs to be very tailored to the specifics of the economy. when i look at, for instance, then where clearly inflation target is two and it's somewhere around one at the moment, and it will take time to get to two, that's an effort in the right direction. the regional currency zones, like the euro differentiations that could be helpful, but it's not the case at the moment because there is one single number. but in the main, i would say that a little bit more would not hurt. >> at the i.m.f. meeting in october, you were quite critical of the u.s. congress and of course a lot happened since

then. >> i had nothing to do with it. shutd the government down -- shutdown hurt global confidence assessment ofr the u.s. congress since october? timeu know, i said at the of uncertainty is hurting the economy. simply because the economic not know in which framework they're going to operate, whether it's budgetary, whether it's tax wise, whether it's regulatory wise. all dimensions they need predictability. so a government of itself,n and without mentioning the macro economic consequences of having federal employees not operating in the normal way, know that they've a factor ofated, is uncertainty and questions the

sovereign to actually manage its operations. think we are all very see that an orderly back.ary process is on the hill. tot there is a determination observe fiscal principles. that is much better. as i said, you know, any deal is better than no deal, let's face it. >> if the stock market in the u.s. has the correction this anticipated, what sort of impact would that have the global economy, and if so how significant of an impact do you see and where that be felt most? >> you know, more importantly the stock market corrections, i think what will

be very important on a cross basis and in other economies, particularly the emerging markets, will be the monetary policy. will be observed and will have consequences, if not properly. i don't think that the, a slight the stock market would have a major impact outside the u.s. you see for the value of the euro relative to the dollar this year? questioner says strategists have been calling for this for the past couple years, only to shirts.ir >> say that again, the last bit? >> strategists have been predicting that the euro value fall relative to the dollar for the past couple years, only to lose their shirts. saying thatve been for the last 10 years. actually some observers have been saying that ever since the euro was put in place. i still have cover painchs of magazines and financial newspapers that were predicting it. it's not happening. isas much as there trepidation and concern, and there was anxiety about the

euro zone,f the there has never been such a euro itself as the is concerned. now to predict the level of the euro vis-a-vis the dollar, i'm not going to go there. >> is europe really likely to deplace? -- deflation? >> as i said, the inflation target which has been the monetary policy decide bid the bank is muchral higher than the inflation observed in that region. although you really have to and go down to the core inflation to see whether that is effectively the case, and it is. so deflation is a rising risk. interestingg some development. spain, for instance, was almost for a short period of time moving into the deflation

zone. picked up, it is back in zone.flation so it's a risk, but i would not put too high a probability on that. >> we have questions on probably every con tin nent the globe, time to ask them all. but moving to one other continent, it will soon be a year since japan started implementing their three arrows economic program. share with us your opinion on successful you think that program has been and whether it's had any spillover effects the world. >> there's no question that there has been success as a result of what is now commonly abonomics. as clearly the massive shift in the the centrale bid bank of japan has had a huge impact. the fiscal stimulus that have been announced a few months ago have an impact. we understand that there is

toitical determination actually raise the consumption tax first in april, then later on. i think it is still short of two things. medium-term fiscal consolidation path that will be anchored in the economic policies of japan. more so thaneven has already been identified by the japanese authorities, the reforms that will actually boost and consolidate japan's economy. there. more can be done >> what should the i.m.f. do to address rising income globally?s you mentioned the scope of the problem. addressing role in that? >> the only thick we can do, inause this is our mission article one of the articles of the i.m.f., is focus on stability and financial and economic stability.

any factornt that jeopardized that stability, our job is to analyze it, to do forth correlation and so to identify where it is a problem. beguns is what we have doing and we will continue doing. as we will continue to work and the relationship between growth and jobs. because we also regard that as a issue.l >> we are unfortunately almost out of time. but before asking the last question, just a couple of housekeeping matters to take care of. i'd like to remind you of our next speaker, on we have demarie smith, the executive director of of the nfl players association. i would like to present our guest today with the traditional national press club mug.e >> i was told about that mug, too. ( laughter ). >> are we making a trade?

>> yes. swap.doing a [applause] lovely. thank you. mugs.dies with the >> there we go, and they match. question. one of our audience members wants to know whether you will insider a run as candidate france's next presidential election. [applause] >> you know, i'm very, very happy as managing director of i.m.f., setsed here in you.ngton d.c., thank [applause] today.k you for coming i would also like to thank our national press club staff including our broadcast center, clubational press journalism institute staff for helping organize today's event.

reminder, can you find more information about the national press club online as of today'sopy program at www.press.org. you. we are adjourned. [applause] [captions copyright national 2014]satellite corp. [captioning performed by the institute]ptioning >> governor of texas rick perry worlde speaking at the economic for number switzer land next week. alsoli prime minister is expected to be there as well as iran's president. atording to this article statement.com, governor perry is considering another run for theident in 2016, and invitation to davos is a political coup. he's expected to be on two panels, one deal with the consequences of drugs, and another on governors and public health. you can read more at states

men.com. new jersey governor chris christie is in florida this weekend for a series of events related to his role as chair of governorsican association, and to help florida governor rick scott do some fundraising. we'll have chris christie's marks from the new jersey state of the state address tomorrow 11:50 eastern time. right here on c-span. >> when you go behind the scenes as a photographer, you're there to see, not hear, not listen and not really, you know, repeat hear.ng that you and it's kind of a mutual agreement because we are let in to meetings when you're behind the scenes that are sensitive. i was there when president obama a rally and at the same time the hurricane had just come the east coast and was up in the north, and he was on the

talkingn a secure phone to the fema director and trying to organize it at the same time campaign.ning the really unique time to be in there and hear him in a really heated, you know, or serious conversation about what was andg on on the ground there how he wanted things to take place and organizing that. theon the other side of wall people are banging four more years, four more years. unique really, it's a time to be, any time you're behind the scenes with the president. times" staff photographer doug mills, sunday andt at 8:00 on c-span's q a. atnext, a closer look changes to government surveillance proposed by president obama. this is from today's washington it's about an