robert in florida. caller: good morning. it is great to be here. we need to sit back and relax, take stock of what is happening. we have a great country. we have got a great country, a lot of people are responding to the fact that republicans have paid a great deal of money to scare us. let's not be scared. 98% and maybe 99% of our representatives are fair-minded individuals who seek the well-being of our country. what we are hearing this morning is that there is an equity across the u.s. you know what? who willise rulers look at all the facts and say there is a great deal of inequity and disparity.

eventually, it is going to be corrected. set that, relax, this is the greatest nation on earth. after 100 years we finally have a congress and a senate and a president who have finally done something for the people. host: that is all the time we have for this morning's "washington journal." we hope you will join us again tomorrow. we go live to the brookings institution, holding a panel on afghanistan 2014. the presidential elections and the planned withdrawal with general john allen and ronald nuemann, former ambassador to afghanistan. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2014]

>> good morning, everyone. welcome to brookings. thank you for coming to discuss afghanistan. we have ael o'hanlon, very distinguished group of american and afghan individuals and officials to talk with us -- former officials and continued scholars and experts on afghanistan to talk about the transitions underway. this upcoming saturday is

afghanistan's presidential election. it will probably not be the clues of round, there will more likely than not be a runoff. one will ultimately get a majority in the late spring or even sooner. we will talk more about those details in a second. we have -- see did from your left to right, former ambassador , career foreign service officer and ambassador also in bahrain and algeria. he and his father were both ambassadors to afghanistan, making them along with the adams the only father-son team to be ambassador to the same country. the depth of commitment by this family to this important country. to be very active in his interests in afghanistan. he and i were there recently on a research trip and he has been many times since being

ambassador. general john allen was the commander of international security assistance force through last year at about this time. he retired a year ago today. we thank him and congratulate him for his service. in february 2013 he passed the reins to general dunford. general allen continues to serve the country actively and supports the israeli-palestinian peace effort. he is a distinguished fellow at brookings. we are delighted to see him. the most of experienced commanders. make him one of the longest-serving and most experienced experts on the subject. he was also deputy commander at schedule command. he was a deputy commanding general for the marines in iraq.

atwas a leading u.s. voice the pentagon on asia-pacific policy prior to that. thrill to have him here. i think he is still the only marine in history who was the superintendent at annapolis. for the navy to trust their midshipmen to a marine tells you even more about general allen. cirillo to have him -- thrilled to have him. >> it was called the great experiment. is aneeb sharifi accomplished afghan who has been a journalist throughout his career. like one of the three presidential candidates, abdullah abdullah, he was trained as a medical doctor. inis also interested afghanistan's future. he has been an analyst for afghanistan awareness and analysis, the place he now works

. we will talk about websites in a so you all can learn more from these distinguished gentlemen'. he has also worked for the afghanistan research and evaluation unit uncovered afghanistan for a number of .edia outlets we would like to cover the elections and also everything that surrounds them and everything going on by way of transition and 2014. this is also the year when isaf with end its mission uncertainty at present over what will follow. that will be a key issue. security will be front and center thinking about the elections, the violence the taliban has been trying to employ to influence the coverage of election.

also as we look forward and think about afghanistan's stability. everyone will be thinking about security. the more immediate question is to think about what is going on this week in afghanistan. the first round of elections for president on saturday. there will also be elections at the prediction -- there will also be elections at the provincial level saturday. we will talk amongst ourselves amended to your questions and answers about halfway through. i would like to begin with ambassador ron nuemann, ambassador from 2005 2007 in afghanistan. war: book "the other winning and losing in afghanistan" is one of the best books i can recommend. i want to discuss how he sees the situation today. the stakes and american policy choices. >> thank you very much.

been heavily involved in afghanistan for seven years. at least six of those, if not all seven, has been referred to as "the decisive year" in afghanistan. there is some truth in that. it is a bit like a really orficult graduate program military training program where you have one test after another. if you fail, you are out. if you pass, you get to take another test. the elections are that kind of test for afghanistan. perhaps even more so than for us. if they fail it, it is difficult. if they succeed, they get another chance. we will be going down the line, we have military expertise and afghan expertise. i wanted to talk, since i am the about what the u.s.

needs to think about in its own policy as we start off talking about afghanistan. electionhis will be an that is disputed. there will be a measure of fraud and certainly violence. if not between candidates, certainly from the taliban. important to understand that we really have -- we the u.s. have two goals. they are related and interlocking but separate. one is an acceptable passage of power to a new president with a broadly recognized acceptability by afghans. reasonablyis a better election. the two are related. and conversations show that afghans care about the transparency of the election. they are excited, despite all

the violence. i will do something that is very dangerous for diplomats -- i will make a prediction close enough to the event that anyone remember what you said. a pundit is someone who is frequently wrong but never uncertain. [laughter] i am going to predict that the turnout is going to be heavy in the selection. election,in this notwithstanding the violence. afghans want it. they have a potential to react if they are denied a fair election. there will be a high level of tolerance for what you might call equal opportunity fraud. which i expect will take place all over the country by all the candidates and their backers. the second goal is progress in democracy. obviously, the two are related.

i say the passage of power in a without is reasonable too much violence between , whiching parties afghans except as a higher priority. if you have that, you go forward with building and you have a chance for more elections and more progress. dispute, you are just going down a road of chaos. because thehis difference is a difference of about how america relates to the early results. an academic distinction alone. one that controls policy. our firstelieve, fairly smoothis transfer of power, we should not be instantly reacting to all the cries and yells of fraud and misbehavior.

they will immediately break out after the first vote. afghanistan -- afghan culture is also a shame culture, losing is a shame. even if you lost fairly you will call a fraud because it retains your honor. that is on top of the actual fraud i expect to occur. fact is what we need to be doing is not putting ourselves in a corner and taking rapid positions on fraud. our initial effort ought to be push the afghans out in front, support the election machinery and the electoral bodies as long as they even partially deserve it. council afghan candidates to look to their longer-term interest in their country and not bet everything on winning or death. scenes without

being responsible as the great superpower for the result, to encourage afghans to pull themselves together. this election is not going to be over after the first round. this election is going to be disputed. secondly, it is very unlikely that one candidate makes 50% which is required. there will be two candidates in a runoff. the dispute between number two and number three is likely to take some months or weeks to work out. florida, except with kalashnikovs. [applause] --[laughter] this process will go on for a while and then you have a second round. it is you are not locked into an early view. you need to work with candidates. it could go on for five months or six months, violence is going to intensify with and as it does.

the taliban have declared they are going to make every effort to sabotage the election and prevent it from happening. and to prevent it from being successful. we need to make up our mind of that. i am talking about security, that is someone else's job. >> you are good at it, i will come back for that. thank you for a framing of that. before we talk to general allen, i will go to najib. tell us about what the election is shaping up to be, a little bit about the candidates if you wish or the media coverage -- the role of independent civil society in overseeing this. your confidence the process is going to be reasonably constructive and helpful to the future of the country. whatever we need to understand what has been going on in afghanistan and the choices afghans are poised to make saturday. >> thank you. good morning, i am glad to be here. let me start from here.

talk about the general politics of elections in afghanistan. i will go into some details. thehe current elections, first thing we have to keep in mind is that president karzai will play an integral role in success and failure of elections. he will also play an integral role in who will win the results of the elections. if he puts his weight behind a particular candidate. the second thing is that this election is not about a person. because we do not have an outright favorite. it is mainly about the teams. in afghanistan, evan the same -- in afghanistan, ethnicity plays a role in politics and

elections. -- according to the constitution, we have a president and the president has two vice presidents. the first vice president, second vice president. the teams have shaped up in a way that covers, to a large , the major ethnic groups. but because we have four major ethnic groups, every team cannot be complete it will leave out at least one. rolecity plays a prominent in the elections. continuing on the role of ethnicity, the votes of the three big ethnic groups -- hazaras --ajiks, and

will be divided. many candidates represent the ethnic groups on different tickets. the only ethnic group that has is the best solidity uzbeks. dr. ghani'sum is on ticket. we have 11 candidates that were in the vetting process by the electoral commission. only eightwe have candidates because three of them dropped out in favor of other candidates. one of them abandoned the elections.

is toason they do this secure political concessions from the candidates who have the best chance of winning. and administrative positions. we have these candidates that we expect to have more withdrawals. in the coming week in favor of the front runners. ,ainly, dr. zalmai rassoul believed to be a favorite candidate. i have got some other facts about the election. they are extremely striking. biggest election ,onitoring organization issued the glare the results of a survey they carried out a couple months ago.

afghansurvey, 92% of support elections. 92% of afghans. only 5% are against the idea of elections. public, the survey covers all parts of the country. 50% of them are women, 50% are men. have said they will take part in the elections. again, that is striking. in previous presidential elections the turnout was below 30%. around 29% or something. is -- another important fact , taliban attacks have intensified in afghanistan.

with the intensification of th desire --s, people people's desire has increased to vote and express themselves, mainly in opposition. mainstreamt that the media and social media have made this significant role in enhancing the civic role of afghan citizens. which is a huge change in afghanistan. have -- a going to of national observers. unfortunately, we will not have a lot of international observers because of security concerns. about 65,000 national observers across the country.

among 6,775 voting centers 8ecause of security centers, 7 8 voting centers will not be operational. places where there is insecurity and observers cannot take part. -- there the parts voting stations that are the most vulnerable to fraud. this is the experience we had in 2009. for thatyou very much overview. as we get into a second round after we hear from general allen, we will talk more about the major candidates and what they stand for and who they are. i will make sure i mentioned their names. we have heard them in passing. we have former foreign minister

rassoul, thought to be president preference. president karzai has avoided making any public endorsements so far. we have former foreign minister the runner-up in the 2009 race to karzai. he also has a mixed tajik-p ashtun background. withlosest association afghanistan during the difficult years, he stayed in the area during the difficult years of the 1980's and 1990's, partially as a physician and partially as a leader in the northern alliance. and then we have dr. ashraf g and aa friend to many ndc former world bank economist. he has been finance minister in

afghanistan and has helped in various advisory roles. he was also a candidate in 2009. he has done quite well in polling so far. we have these three candidates who look to be the strongest. everyone will want to talk more about them. first, general allen, a lot to talk about with security. of the casual american consumer of news media is deteriorating security, especially with the tragic attacks of the last couple weeks. help us understand this in context. including the question of what the afghan security forces, what they are now doing in the country as we downsize. >> thanks a lot, great to be with you all this morning. i am a bit reflective, it is a retire. a day that i you can depart afghanistan but you can never leave afghanistan. there is not a day that goes by that i do not think about the wonderful afghans with whom i served and with whom i felt such

great affection. of reflection today for me, i see a german uniform and audience. probably many folks from diplomatic missions here to represent many of the 50 countries that served in that coalition. i just want to remind his audience as i remind every troops have0,000 served at the height of this war. they performed magnificently. seldom have we seen so large and so capable a field force do so much for the good of the country when it has such capacity for destruction. it is a great example of how one countries to come together with a common set of values, they can make a contribution in a difficult environment. for the u.s. and the coalition, we are exceptionally fortunate to have a fellow by the name of

joe dunford commanding in afghanistan. it has been -- beyond his many personal and professional characteristics which recommend him for this very difficult job -- it has been a long time since we have handed an american or nato commander a more challenging set of missions than joe dunford is attempting to undertake. with some significant success. there is a saying that the farther away from afghanistan you become, you are far more remote from the circumstances. when you get closer it looks better than from the distance. joe has done a magnificent job in handling what i would say are five major tasks right now. they could have been done in a resident's order at one point. tomorrow, we will be insi

de 8 months remaining on the isaf mission. these are tasks he is executing concurrently. it requires leadership and skill in planning operationally and logistically. the first is to maintain the very delicate advisory and support balance isaf the -- the isaf forces continue to have with the ansf, the afghan national security forces. the afghans are leaving most of the operations. while the last fighting season was the first fighting season where they have full operational control across the board, this will be the first fighting season with that kind of experience under their belt. equilibriumdelicate is advising and assisting as the afghans continue to move to the front and continue their operations in terms of securing the local population and also in dealing with the taliban is

extraordinarily important. the second thing joe is doing, i am going down one through five. i want to make sure everyone understands that some of these occurring are concurrently. as the pressures of the campaign continue to increase, the clock ticks down to december 2014, you can get a sense of the enormity of what we are undertaking and requiring of our military. ofntain equilibrium advising, assisting, and supporting. the second is the retrograde enterprise. over the last year, general dunford and his team have had to close down several hundred basis. we started with 800 when i took a man. bases in a closed long time. we closed 500 in the first year. we needed to get down to a platform of 10 bases to 12 basis by the end of this calendar year. when you have bases with as

many as 30,000 people, bagram and kandahar, the two largest. is as muchse bases an operational commitment to keep the logistics platform relevant to the campaign as it is simply closing the base itself. he is roger grading the excess is retrograde and the excess material that has been accumulating for over a decade. when i took control, we found we had 60,000 excess armored vehicles and 100,000 shipping containers will spare parts. he has been working to move that out of the theater as quickly as he can. the third part is sending home the troops and their organizational equipment. advise, assist, and support. the retrograde

enterprise. the third area is a transfer of tasks. on any given day, the isdquarters of isaf undertaking several hundred different tasks in the execution and accomplishment of the mission of this campaign. as time goes on and as isaf continues the process of moving towards the completion of its mission, those tasks will have to go somewhere. many will be completed and that will be the end of that. a number will transfer directly to the follow-on mission. at this point, nato's follow-on mission will be called operation resolute support. a number of the tasks will to higher headquarters in europe or central command. some of those tasks will go to civilian agencies, both on the u.s. side and within the coalition. some will transfer directly to

the afghans. right now, as we transfer these tasks, we will have to be careful we do not overburdened the afghans at this critical as they continue to get their legs under them operationally and militarily. the fourth task is providing support to the afghans who have the responsibility for the security of the election. this obviously is extraordinarily important. the planning that was done, the intent was that the afghan national security forces would have the lead for the security of the election. and the police close army providing outer court in support -- the army providing outer cordon support. trying to disrupt the elegant formations as much as they can. -- trying to disrupt the taliban

formations as much as they can. you enter send the troubles we have had recently in kabul. have the attacks in kabul received a lot of attention, they did not have a widespread effect. they did achieve attention and cause concerns about the security of the city. at the same time, those attacks -- what is not necessarily understood or receiving very much attention is the activities specifically targeted against the taliban to keep them off balance and disrupt their support areas. generale final task dunford is undertaking is the task associated with receiving the force that will be coming in, supposing that the bilateral security agreement will be signed. and employee that force to the end of his mission. then begin the

resolute support on january 1, 2015. remember thist to activity is occurring in an environment where the taliban is on the attack. the taliban are right now heavily invested in both attempting to disrupt the election, the preparations for the election, and appearing to have the kind of omnipotent across the country that can shake the confidence of the population. it is a really good point and an important point that the afghan people are extraordinarily proud of their police and military. themfghan people have seen fight a very hard fighting season in 2013. a lot of casualties and they gave as good as they took. there was some ground lost but much of that ground was recovered, only redoubled the determination that the selection is all about their future. me as i surprise to

have watched this process unfold over the last year and i have been in touch with afghans that this election and the outcome and the peaceful transition of power from president karzai to whomever will follow is very important to the average afghan. process is whole underway with the taliban attempting to disrupt it as much as they possibly can. it is worth reminding everyone that the afghan theater is 400 miles inland, this is a landlocked theater in which we have been conducting hostilities and combat operations now going on 13 years. for general dunford, his team, for our civilian to my partners and the interagency, the pressures are increasing every day to juggle the many different balls associated with security. equilibrium so we deliver the afghan national security forces to the point where we want them and we have mission.e of the isaf

bringing the resolute support mission in. so we have a clear transition in the post by 14 period. will talk more about the election and the candidates. coupleamplify and at a clicks sacked before going to run again. -- i will amplify and add a couple quick facts before going on to ron. more than 85% of all total arm strength in afghanistan is afghan. the nato coalition is down to below 50,000 troops. when general allen, he had 150,000 troops. he began downsizing, about 1/3 down. now we are down 2/3. more than 85% of fighting forces

are now afghan. last year, they carried out 95% of all the operations. they either let them or carry them out themselves. this is an important point that is both sobering and tragic. took 4000 700 fatalities. the afghan army and police. 2013, twiceies in the number we suffered through the war. i know we deeply regret the sacrifice of our own men and women. it is worth noting the afghans suffered 4700 fatalities last .ear it is those lives that have been lost. it shows that the taliban is still strong. five years ago, i would have predicted it would not have been this strong. i hoped and thought we would have been in a better place in

terms of having weakened the taliban. the good news is they are still fighting. they have taken those casualties and held together. they have continued to be able to recruit and take the fight to the enemy. last point, they have been able to continue to recruit . you had not imagined five years ago that the taliban would be strong, none of us could imagine could be this strong and able to conduct core level operations. this is a reason that the afghan people are so proud of the army. , you know all the candidates. i was honored to meet with several of them with you a couple weeks ago. could you please help us understand the choice that is now before the afghan better on voter on-- the afghan

saturday. and what the choice might signify in terms of who the afghans would like to see replace president karzai after his 12 years in leadership. >> thank you. that is quite a big task. i suppose one can drown people in detail without necessarily raising their understanding too much. that important to say there are no huge ideological big dramaticr differences. ais is not analogous to liberal and conservative campaign. what you have are personalities. you have a little more detail from saun then from others. but no necessarily assurance that the detail indicates where they would go. dr. abdullah -- the other

thing to say, you have got three that look like they have a chance at being in the top two. you have got a couple behind them who are going to be important in making deals. you are going to have a lot of politics in this election after the first round of the election as people pick sides. particularly some of the second string candidates like sayyaf. as some of those people coalesce around one candidate or another, that is also going to tip the balance. and then to make life really complicated, comparatively few vote on anns will individual preference basis. they will tend to vote on the basis of community leaders, tribal affiliations.

there was scholarly work done a year or two ago. comparatively few people would agree with the idea that if they disagreed with their tribal leaders they should vote for their own preference. that was not a majority view. then you had powerbrokers who deliver votes and not voters. you have the complexity. of the big three, dr. abdullah is seen largely as the northern-western tajik candidate. that is not completely true, he has support in the east and the south. he has negatives as well because of being seen as the non-p ashtun. there is a strong belief in pashtuns, they are at least the plurality of afghanistan.

they believe they are the majority, but if i excepted all the figures i have been told the country would be at least as twice as large as it is. s think they ought to roll. dr. abdullah's father is a pashtun but he is seen as a tajik candidate. ashraf ghani is very popular in the rwest. his selection of general dostum as vice president of canada has touched raw nerves in people who -- his selection of general rashid dostum as vice presidential candidate has touched raw nerves. ghani is known to have a fiery temper. dostum.

people worry about putting the two worst tempers in afghanistan -- some people consider ashraf ghani a communist. this is a big issue in a country that was dominated by a communist government. charge may or may not be fair, it exists. has big positives, he has touched off a lot of popular enthusiasm among younger people. he also has some big negatives. he is seen as a pashtun nationalist. for tajiks will not vote him for that reason. dr. rassoul is a member of the former ruling family of the king's generation. he is a pashtun, although he hardly speaks pashtun. he was a supporter of the cane. in many ways, he is the candidate of continuity -- most

clearly seen as the candidate of continuity. that is both continuity for powerbrokers, drug lords, and criminals. it is also reassuring to afghans who are really tired of being buffeted by massive social change. constant themey through the last 100 plus years of afghan history -- resistance to too rapid change. it cause the overthrow of two monarchs and was largely responsible for the early blowback against the domestic afghan communists. it was not about them being communists, it was about them changing too much. the sentiment of not wanting a lot of change is not just about criminality. rassoul is looked at by most as karzai's covert candidate. partially because one of

out ofs brothers backed the race and now backs dr. rassoul. he is also seen as a weak personality. not quite tough enough to take on the problems of the country. every one of the three has some negatives. i guess the person i would put , a formeris sayyaf islamic leader who has performed quite responsibly in the last 15 or 20 years in parliament. hands that might not be completely lily white. it will be interesting to see how these people shift. there will be a lot of dealmaking going on. there's already a lot of negotiating. there will be more, particularly after the first round. that is probably more than enough with which to saturate people for the moment. >> let me ask one quick

follow-up. three, if i'm all hearing you right, are people we should keep an open mind about being able to work well with. the u.s. has no declared candidate or preferred canada. i assume you recommend that we not officially or publicly support anyone and stay hopeful about being able to work with any of the three. >> absolutely, there is no reason for us to be against any of the three. they are all reasonable people. they are all people with whom, relations will be much better than they are with president karzai. we should not pick a candidate ticause he has a hubris notion of which we know, but we are clumsy about when we do those things. we should stay out. and will turn to najib general allen on the same

question. whatever they want to say about candidates and elections. to you ande subsequent discussion about the issue of things like the bilateral security accord. planning for u.s. forces. keep the focus now on the elections, the choices before afghans at the polls. najib, anything you want to add to what ron said? thing i wasone really struck by. the fact that was reflected in the survey by the biggest election monitoring organization in afghanistan. 80% of thethat public have declared that they will vote independently. consultations with their tribal leaders or elders or family. it was a bit striking.

ethnic, tribal, and family have a big role to play in who to vote for for individuals. other than that, i pretty much agree with what ambassador nuemann said. -- we haveere is these three candidates. dr. zalmai rassoul , and dr. ashraf ghani. has a potential to create a problem in the first and second rounds is the big margins between dr. zalmai rassoul and the two front runners. thetwo front-runners, margin of difference between them is almost by 1/3.

is way lower than the two front running. the difference between dr. israf ghani and dr. abdullah one percent. >> 20 presenting, 19% -- >> 27% versus 8%. this is a fear a lot of people in afghanistan have. if zalmai rassoul is somehow hehed to the second round or becomes the candidate that gets the second highest number of that in the first round, will raise a lot of questions. the polls have constantly shown his low level of support. and it is highly likely the

elections will go to a second round. considering the composition of the teams that we have. , there are some accusations among pashtuns because he sided with dostum, considered to have war crimes -- to have committed a war crime atrocities. on his team, he managed to vastly increase his constituency. in the 2009 presidential elections, ashraf ghani managed of votes.around 3% this time, it is mainly because of dostum he has risen up. mainly because of dostum. nd dr. abdullah, as ambassador

nuemann said, he has a lot of support among tajiks in the northern and western part of afghanistan. but because he was very -- a the latee confidant of massoud, he is seen as a radical by a lot of pashtuns. though yesterday you had a campaign rally in kandahar. from all the candidates, he had the biggest turnout. which means that he has the biggest rally in kandahar. which is a bit surprising for everybody. to zalmai rassoul,

he is considered a very weak person, not only him but the vice president he has. his second vice president used to be a governor. it will help him to secure some votes of women. as entire team is seen as, we say in afghanistan, a just saying team. whatever karzai says. >> i just want to follow up on something general allen set. this is an excellent analysis. i went to tee up one issue. president karzai is still 70%

popular in afghanistan. he is not 70% popular in washington, but he is 70% popular in afghanistan. i'm trying to think through this question ron and i were focusing on. what are rassoul's real prospects? there is a certain undercurrent that if rassoul wins, it must mean something was fraudulent. i want to push back a little and ask you the following. isn't it possible that because afghans doi's guy, not mind that. he is a candidate of continuity and will not rock the boat too much. d, some might prefer stability. because he does not have the negatives of the other two, either dostum or a strong tajik association of dr. abdullah. ir all these reasons, and have seen some polls lately that

put him closer to the front runners then you mentioned. he may actually be a viable candidate, even though much of the narrative suggests he could not be. disagree with the question, but i want to put it to a point. what ise elections, equally important to the actual process is the perception of the public. people currently see him as a candidate, a team on the low margins. them being elevated to the level of dr. abdullah and ashraf ghani or even above them will raise serious questions. >> i would pause. that is very true of the educated elite and of kabul. is equally true across the south and east. it could be, i am not saying it is not.

i think there will be questions. i would also point out that dr. abdullah and ashraf ghani are making an effort to say that if dr. rassoul gets into the second round, it is automatically evidence of fraud. i think we as americans should not accept that which is a campaign ploy in advance. of note that not everyone is of this view. i was having breakfast with a a pretty liberal and educated audience. the were quite angry that election foundation had made a could notthat rassoul

get in. there are divisions in views and then there are political agendas. >> i was going to come to that, actually. there are some justifications if he gets to that position. ve a significant number of undecided voters. itany stage you could say was the undecided voters who finally decided to vote for zalmai rassoul. that is one issue. the other issue, to be honest, even now it is a huge frustration on the part of the afghan people. of certainty lack -- what is going to happen in their elections. we have expectations that there should not be fraud in the process should produce legitimate government.

it will not be a serious question or concern among afghans. for the record, despite the fact that we desire transparency and clean processes. elections have had a significant impact in the lack ife of average afghans. the business people have stopped investing in afghanistan because of these issues. they are not sure what is going to happen in the future. the uncertainty has caused a lot theoung people to flee country. saying afghanistan is not going to work. but we have a vibrant and huge community of young adults and civil society workers who are helping theged in

process and ensuring that the process is clean and transparent. for example, one of the colleagues my started last week was to prepare a resolution and get the signature of every single candidate. the mostution says -- common article is that if the independent international and national election monitoring organizations endorses the , i knowledge i will not challenge or dispute the outcome of the elections. politicaln's stability is very fragile. if any candidate disputes the result of the elections, it will obviously create problems. further instability.

in general, what i would like to is, people in afghanistan under there is huge instability. it is a country that lacks strong political institutions. the analogy i usually make is the country is a plane is being flown while it is being constructed. have strong political institutions. we do not have enough experience with regards to holding elections. the geography is extremely tough. security is extremely tough. the taliban and other insurgent toups will spare no efforts disrupt the elections. if we have a successful election that could reduce legitimacy it would be a huge blow to the taliban. they will show that a people of

afghanistan said no to don and itse to go and vote -- would show that the people of afghanistan said no to them and chose to go vote. that is why they will do everything from attacking to cards tog fake voting undermine the legitimacy of the elections. >> turning to general allen for impressions about the candidates. nothave worked with most if all of them. also, your sense of security thenthe saturday vote and the new fighting season as the snows melt in afghanistan and the taliban return. >> the taliban, as we just heard, have a great stake in ge ofg to portray the ima insecurity right now and to shake the confidence of the population in terms of the future of afghanistan.

first, with regard to the candidates, i have worked mostly rassoul.af ghani and well, i alsodullah know sayyaf well. for me, the security is not just about the election on the fifth. security is important with respect to the transition from the karzai administration to the next administration. ensuring we have a secure for thatto provide political transition. the first time there will have been a peaceful transition from one elected leader in afghanistan to another. theeful is in the eyes of beholder. in the context of a constitutional process that is recognizable, this is important. months withng respect to a runoff and with respect to the time necessary to

the the government after runoff, we have some big political events >> right now, i think very clearly and correctly there is enormous uncertainty about the future of afghanistan. one of the reasons for that uncertainty has been that we have been unable to announce a specific commitment in terms of the pursed .14. ost 2014 period.

the idea is creating an upward spiral of professional capability. it is been essential. that would take the form of both in terms of the resources necessary for that commitment, people of course and the equipment and funding, but also the time. that ensures that the post tony 14 mission is resourced in terms the amount of time necessary to truly give the afghan security forces what they need. again, the key point is if we are going to have an election or the afghans are in the lead for security, we will surprise -- provide support and special operations to destabilize the taliban's ability to disrupt

this. there will be disruption. there will be areas where the taliban seeks to create the illusion of an unstable environment. forcesch of the security are well advised and tactically mobile and they will have a reach we have not seen before in an election. it will not be perfect area there will be substantial disruption of. as we have heard, there is great enthusiasm to get out and vote. instead been heartened of being compromised. we will have the election. we will have a potential runoff. we will have the formation of the government. the will occur between accomplishment of the mission and the establishment of the post tony 14 -- 2014 mission.

this will be put into place ultimately for an advisory. with those major political transitions, it is essential in the first year after the election is to provide as much support as we can to the afghans. in the resource base and not just in the longevity of the mission, but a clear western enunciation of support to the afghan government and the a in sf. f.ans in the absence of that clarity, we have seen a digging in strategy. people will not support investment. people are unwilling to commit to a peace process. it is not just a hedging

strategy in the countryside, it is in the cities and regionally. clarity, this kind of obvious and open enunciated commitment is really important right now to give the afghan citizenry and elite and the region the sense that the west is going to be there for some. of time. we learned three lessons from the end of the soviet era. produced a military that was pretty since effective. -- effective. the intent had been that the soviets would remain for some. of time heading the mushu dean. the first thing to go were the advisers. even when they went, the afghan

forces still acquitted themselves relatively well until the soviet union completely collapsed. that is when the resources and funded that were necessary when away. the is when we saw first collapse. we and so the civil war emerge. the chaos that emerged was the general departure of the west and the instability that we created. those were lessons from which we studied significantly and made recommendations to influence the outcome of the end of this year and the post 2014. that is the taliban and narrative, that they will be abandoned.

we will provide for the development of the security forces. we will accomplish that mission. right now, in the final throes will fly inion, it the face of the taliban and .arrative which is abandonment as long as we are able to maintain the equilibrium of those five areas, i think we can provide the amount of time necessary and the stability necessary for that first peaceful transition from the selection and let it get up on its feet. we will permit that to be complete. >> klees wait for a microphone. we will take to questions at a time. questionke your

specific and who you would like to begin the answer and we will start here in the front row. >> thank you very much. and iarrett mitchell write the mitchell report. i want to question about the telegram. you have told us that it is clear that they will hope to be as disruptive as possible in the election process itself. the question i have goes beyond that. thatey make the assumption no matter how disruptive they therebe at some point, will be a new president and a new government? oh do they think they can model it enough that that does not happen? what would be the most likely

post government formation strategy that the taliban could engage in that would help them achieve their destabilization and reinjuring the government in afghanistan? >> let's go to the second question. >> thank you. said in your op-ed last we risk if we try to hold afghanistan to a swiss level standard in elections. you made an interesting argument effectivelyarzai tied the country together.

affect how going to the election plays out? those are good questions. government is going to have a tough operation. president, he is going to have to put together a government with a lot of very hungry supporters. none of the three leading candidates have such a strong base that they can push people aside and take other people. us af the three said to couple of weeks ago that they will have to reach out beyond their own coalition of supporters and put together a broader government in order for stability to take place. corruption, that

doesn't tell you that you're going to have rapid change the matter who is elected and what they say now. to be putting in place a network of supporters over whom they have loose control. they have to do a lot of balancing. it is not likely you will see a lot of balancing and keeping that balance by whacking people for direction at the same time. if the leader is more skillful, he might ask people over time. i don't think we should expect rapid change in government. all three know they have to have a better governance. with what tension they have to do. we don't know how that is going to work. in policy terms, it will be important that we are close to

have that -- who that person is. we need to help them manage that difficult tension so that proves governance rather than standing miracles of american we think should be immediately enacted. know't think any of us what to tell a man is thinking. their main issue is to discredit the new government. their approach has been hamid karzai is a foreign puppet. he has no legitimacy. we are legitimate. their goal is to maintain that situation. an election which has few adherents and a few people who vote and is badly contested by

fraud. the more the next government is legitimated by the election and by how accept it, the more the taliban is in a position of having a difficult discussion. i have no idea how they will come out on that discussion. there is long history of our growing out of a gun in afghanistan. it does not mean people will be instantly saying that is the rule people. >> i don't know what any particular taliban is thinking. they need to be disruptive. they don't believe they can stop the selection from being undertaken. they can't stop the government

from being formed. in terms of the outcome of the election, an early endorsement and theandidate formation of the government and a long-term commitment to afghanistan is essential. they been able to stay in the field and recruit based on the sense that the west was going to depart. they would ultimately be successful after our departure and the collapse of the corrupt government in kabul. the candidateho will be that is elected. signs the bsa, that would be a blow to the

taliban. that president is intent on maintaining the relationship necessary not just for the ansf but to create a stable platform for the long term that is necessary. it is important that that candidate right now be thinking about the first actions they will take to repair the damage that has been done with the rhetoric from the palace over the last several months. important things that could happen would be to sign the security agreement. that would be reciprocated by the unambiguous declaration of support by the west for that president and that government and afghanistan over the long term. doubled with the taliban narrative in trouble. we will see where that goes. agree with what the

ambassador has said. i want to keep it simple. government after will weaken the position of the taliban. it will damage their entire existence. it will prove that people want this system and want to vote their own leaders into office. create a huge trouble for the taliban. that, as long as the alabama remains hopeful for victory, they will not make peace. why would they make peace? a need for the

treaty to be signed. there needs to be a strong and clear and consistent commitment from the international community. reduce the hope of the taliban for any potential victory. the future government has to be a broad-based coalition government. again, what we need to do is we need to get peace and negotiations. from a position to make as, we have lot of concessions. considering the amount of , weifice that we have made can't afford to make concessions.

i pray for a smooth transition. that, i ame achieved confident that afghanistan will be on a path to long-term stability. two, allo to round endorsejor candidates this bilateral security agreement. american forces to remain in afghanistan after the mission is formally ended at the end of this year. that may seem like a technicality, it was the failure to get a similar arrangement with iraq that led to the departure of forces there in 2011.

abdullah abdullah may have the most specific agenda for political reform. he would also like to see reform in the senate. these are ideas if you listen to the agendas. it is hard to say how much those will translate into governance agendas. right there. one of the things we are concerned about is the lack of air force. they be able to

compensate for the lack of their own air force? what kind of consequences will that have for their ability to fight? that is my main question. which of the two leading candidates is best suited to power in afghanistan? >> was there another question? we will go over to the side. i am colonel joss urges. -- burgess. i served under general allen. >> that is why you are

exhausted. >> i have had time to recover just a little bit. my question for ambassador what isregards happening inside afghanistan. a is well-known that there is greek game environment that is being played out among regional powers. i am wondering how these relationships and what they are doing inside the country might impact the transitions that will take place and what we might be able to do to minimize those impacts? >> that is a great question about the air force. the build is not going to be complete until about 2016. we will continue to provide support up until the end of the mission. we will continue to provide advisory support to the emerging air force in the.

of time.iod your medevac question is a good one. we spent a great deal of time working hard to work with the ministry of public health and work with the ministry of defense and interior to optimize all the resources across the country. theexample, instead of helicopter medevac that we became there used to, we built the process. a large number of armored vehicles had been procured for the forces so someone who is medevac on the ground will find that his buddy is well-trained. theye point of wanting,

have capacity for some care right on the spot. the medevac process begins by moving a casualty to an armored vehicle which will move it to a casually collection point. we take advantage of the local clinics that will be improved or a field hospital that was purchased for the national army to be deployed when operations occur in the field at the core level. the point is, we are not pulling out our helicopters. we went to a great deal of trouble working with surgeons and the deputy minister of public health to optimize all of the resources necessary to take advantage of every capability we can short of the helicopter medevac. there will be fewer helicopters

then you are used to seeing. we have more work to do on the air force. i think you are aware that we have a ground attack aircraft that is coming in through a series of contractual issues. that aircraft is delayed. the intent was to use some of helicopters to up thatthose to be a gunship can take the place of that turboprop aircraft until it ultimately enters the air force. it is worth noting that right now the production of pilots in there aren't, enough pilots to fly every airplane. the process is to continue unabated. there are a lot of afghan pilots who are drying pay -- drawing pay. in the conversations i have had , holdingident karzai

of the younger officers who are quite exceptionally well-qualified pilots to get them into uniform and get them into training and the cockpit, that process is going to take a while. we have a gap. we will do whatever we can at this point to advise as best we can. >> i am glad to hear the information from general allen. not having the air force in places of the biggest complaints of the people in afghanistan, particularly the generals in the army and our president. i'm glad those activities are

going on. centralization, none of the candidates are advocating for federalization. the only difference that we have is in the agenda and platform of dr. abdulla. towants to change the system a parliamentary system. is the only big change in the platforms that we have. to get to your question, i think the equation and the region are changing. there is some acceptance that is coming into existence finally, after 13 years.

i feel it is shaping up. in afghanistan is good for their countries. pakistan is coming to the i using violence policy hurtseign themselves very likely. offer ifn has a lot to there is economic cooperation and economic integration. we have central asia with huge national resources. we have huge human resources. in between, we have afghanistan. what has happened with russia

willhe ukraine, that affect their policy in the larger picture. that further increases the need for the united states to have a presence in afghanistan. since the people of afghanistan have been badly hurt through out theyry by its neighbors, have proved that the entire region in a region where sentiment is being propagated by the government, afghanistan is the only country which proves to be an ally to the united states. don't want to talk about what

the president is saying. it is not a good idea to give him much importance. the more important to give to his rhetoric, the more his objectives will be realized. he is leaving. we should stay cool about it. afghanistan -- one other point i would like to make that i wanted to make earlier isut the future government even if you have disputes in the elections, everybody understands will try to disrupt, there will not be instability. any deadlock will benefit.

that will benefit will be the taliban. all other groups -- it is a lose lose situation. the only group that will take advantage of that is the taliban. that is why they will make attempts to create a coalition government. we put the real enemies of afghanistan on alert. many of you have been in enough sessions to greet with great suspicion anybody who opens by saying i don't have in to say on this but... view of the time i will try to make it brief. what you have right now is .verybody saying -- playing i hope we are correct. i hear more discussion in

pakistan but not much change in the actual policy. that is destabilizing to afghanistan in the long term. in the long run, it is destabilizing to pakistan. afghanistan needs a kind of regional neutrality where it is not partisan between pakistan and iran and india. when there iscome a government in afghanistan that a strong enough to maintain basic internal order. without that you have a contest for power which draws in foreign support. it is a long term vision but not a short-term practicality. i don't think there is a candidate who is looking to federalism. there is a lot of discussion of that.

everybody understands that you have a system which is centralized on paper and in capable of carrying out the centralization with which it is vested. the problem is that decentralization would be to decentralize to the warlords and powerbrokers who are the problem of the government already. there is no political mass ready to take up regional governance nor does tribalism have the same strength that it had 30 years ago before all the trouble. you see that in this election. there is an enormous split among groups. there is a discussion about the parliamentary system. it is very vague. and nobody explains what they have in mind.

a parliamentary system without formed parties and discipline would mean even less stability than you have now. a prime minister dependent on that parliament would have to renegotiate his mandate. he would have to repurchase his mandate on a virtually weekly basis. that is a recipe for disaster. might mean something akin to an appointed prime minister who could be dismissed by the president rather than by parliament. that is not really a parliamentary system. you have a kind of chief executive authority who is responsible for running the government who can become the lightning rod that you dispose of when he has encouraged too much displeasure. then you can start with somebody else. that is possible. it is a long way down the pike. thank you.

wish the afghan people a successful election on saturday and please join me in thanking the panelists. [applause] >> you can watch this discussion about afghanistan anytime on our website www.c-span.org. news from the middle east this morning at with the associated press reporting that john kerry is heading back to the middle east today for talks with israeli and palestinian leaders

as peace talks have reached a critical make or break. american mediators have been holding urgent talks with the israelis and palestinians in hopes of salvaging the talks and getting decides to extend them beyond a late april deadline. that is from the associated press. update on the affordable care act, the sign-up closes at midnight. there is a technical flareup on the site monday morning. which had beenal handling millions of visitors over the past few days as enrollment past 6 million was down for maintenance around 3:20 a.m. it will return at 9:00 a.m.

the problem was a software bug discovered overnight. more than toomey and people went to the site this weekend. more than 2 million people went to the site this weekend. over 1000 of you have posted your thoughts. we invite your comments at .com/c-span. the house is not in today. they meet tomorrow with ukraine aid bills on the agenda.

more now from the capitol hill reporter. >> we are going to the hill. thank you for joining us. >> it is great to be with you. what can we expect? what are you watching? >> it is going to be a busy week. the senate returns this evening. a cute expected to pass in reimbursement for medicaid. it passed by universal consent in the house. they are going to pass the unemployment insurance bill. that cleared a hurdle late last week. it will be an uphill battle in the house where speaker banner -- john boehner has come out against it.

they are going to complete their work on ukraine aid legislation. that passed the senate last week. to see the annual paul ryan budget. that is supposed to come out on tuesday. ukraine, explain to us the politics around that. is that expected to sail through the house? >> yes. they considered passing it by unanimous consent on friday after lawmakers had left town and the senate passed it. record sod to be on they are voting for it. they passed that to tuesday. are $1 billion in loan guarantees to ukraine. andlso has some other aid

the house will separately act on has $12 million for pro-democracy broadcasting in propagandacounteract coming from russia in the region. >> you mentioned the paul ryan's hints asre there any to what is going to be in it or how it will be different? it will be vastly different than the administration's budget. similar in one aspect. republican leaders have said they will stick to the top down spending number of $1 trillion for 2015. that is 70 is negotiated with patty murray in december.

it passed both the house and the senate. they will stick with that number. the budget is going to have much deeper cuts in the subsequent years. he is going to stick to a commitment to try and balance the budget within a decade. it will balance over 10 years. at least, that is what we have been told. ryan,cking with paul , what does thes budget mean? allocate.uld it is a symbolic document. it is a political document.

the senate has already announced aat they are not going to do budget this year. there is a two-year budget agreement that was passed. democrats are going to skip that in an election year. in the house, it is going to be a tough vote for some republicans. 62 house republicans voted against that deal in december. some of those people who voted against that number will have to vote for a budget that includes part of that agreement next week. the floor vote will be next week. , thank you foran being with us this morning. >> good to be with you. thehen the truck hit him, car spun around.

driver wanted to know what a phone was. he was looking for a phone. >> he was in the backseat. she was alive before they cut her off. ♪ >> hello. i am a 16-year-old. i'm ready to start driving. i am eager but scared. many drivers are focusing on cell phones rather than on the road. dangerous that it is

and cell phones have no place behind the wheel. something needs to be done. >> we have announced winners of this year's student cam video competition. only one winning videos starting on tuesday at 6:50 a.m. eastern on c-span. all of the winning entries are on line. testifiedinistrator about her agency's budget. postsent obama's budget money for the epa. it is a $300 million reduction from last year. barbara boxer chairs the committee. the committee will come to order. >> the committee will come to

order. we are on a fast-track because we have votes. can i ask member stick their seats please. i welcome you to this hearing. your mission is to protect public health and the through clean air and children's health and safety raking water. agencies, given asked to do more with less. budget wasago, the $10.3 billion. the one for next year has been reduced to seven point $9 billion. -- $7.9 billion. these programs are critical to protecting our public health. theddition to funding cuts, epa is facing other challenges including an employee who has been sentenced to prison for defrauding the american

taxpayers. did tociate the office ferret out this employee and i would like to commend administrator mccarthy for making this action to like. the epa has 15,000 employees. even in the military there are bound to be a few outliers that must be held accountable. with thousands of dedicated employees, you have shown success in improving health by keeping the air and water clean and safe. in 2010, the clean-air standard prevented 13 million lost workdays and prevented 150,000 deaths from air pollution. it prevented 1.7 million asthma attacks. very many agencies that could say that. i want to show a picture of the clean-air -- what happens when

you don't pay attention to the air. this is another photograph of china. we don't need to have a theory on this. we see what happens when entries don't value their people enough to protect them from dirty air. there is a new study that shows 3.7 million people worldwide have died prematurely from outdoor air pollution. the economy that has grown 212% while air pollution has dropped 58%. a responsible budget must not lose track of our top priorities. if we don'ttake have adequate state safeguards -- safeguards in place? look at west virginia where a chemical spill contaminated the water supply or 300,000 people. action,g preventative

we can help communities avoid a similar disasters. fortend to mark up a bill chemical safety and drinking water. i do pray we can get that done next week. we will get it done. i'm hoping for bipartisanship. when you have chemicals that are not regulated and they are sitting on top of a drinking water supply, look at what happened to that town economically when their drinking water was destroyed. we need to act. i also want to thank the epa for clarifying a rule about the clean water act. colleagues on both sides of the aisle and many other -- havetions like called on the epa to go through a formal rulemaking to clear up

the uncertainty created by confusing supreme court decisions. this will proceed through an open and transparent process. the proposed ruling shares protections of the wetlands and small streams that can be a source of drinking water for over 117 million americans. i asked anonymously sent to enter into the record -- unanimous consent to sent these into the record. americans can be proud. i want to show the support the epa has in the public. we have at a chart here. the american people know what you are doing. we appreciate what you are doing. voters want stricter limits for clean air.

stop. to i'm holding myself to five minutes. thank you for being here. i want to call in our ranking member, senator vetter. important a very oversight hearing. this committee obviously has that fundamental oversight responsibility. example of concerns about how the epa is being run is the case of the former official jonathan beal. a'd turned out to be charlatan of renowned upper portion. -- they did not

take action against a fake cia agent who sold over $1 million of taxpayer money. these and other failings are in a series of memoranda issued by my committee staff. i would like to enter that into the record at this time. this exposes an indisputable timeline that raises questions not only about john be about about epa. in january 2011, you were informed that he was receiving around the us bonuses. cap.ised a salary above i instead, she deferred to an epa official equal to her in rank at the time. this is because of uncertainty over his cia status.

unformedepa official her that there were no cia employees at the epa. she believed the matter was closed when he announced his retirement in may 2011. she learned in march 2012 that he had not retired. he collected full pay plus illegal retention bonus of $42,000. she took no action against beal for nearly a year. canceled the illegal bonus in february 2000 teen. -- 2013. she allowed him to retire two months later with full benefits. leds now clear that he also one of the most significant rule makers prior to this. this ever codified the practice

of using particulates to inflate benefits of clear -- clean air act benefits. the agency still refuses to share all of the scientific data underpinning these costly regulations. , they introduced a series of dubious actions that the agency has followed. i would like to enter that into the record. >> without objection. has embracedepa the strategy of this playbook and pursued ideologically driven agendas in the same way that beale did in the 1990. done by excluding

public participation and employing heavy-handed management. the epa is using the playbook and has led to dire consequences for americans. in march 10, they are times reported of a story about an 81-year-old. she was deteriorating and living on a fixed income. she struggles to pay her energy air as a direct result of regulations that have shut down electricity generation in her part of the country. agenda, the epa extends regulatory arm with complete disregard for american taxpayer dollars. we have many examples of that.

these make congressional oversight absolutely critical. that is why this hearing and follow-up work is so enormously important. we need to get at this concerning culture of which john beal is just the poster child and not the full extent. >> i'm going to place in the record a counter to some of these things. there is an article from the washington post that says there never to stop john beale accept mccarthy. >> thank you. thank you for being here. you exercise one of the most important responsibilities of the federal government. you protect human health and the environment.

i applaud your service. i am sorry that this issue has become so partisan. i have the seat of john chafee. he was a republican and environmentalist and i am sorry that that combination is no longer possible in washington. i appreciate that you are doing more with less. there are people here who wanted to do less with less. they don't want the epa to be efficient, they wanted to be wounded. i urge you to continue with your work. your rule will prevent premature deaths. the health benefits of the rule can actually be quantified and have been.

this is a particularly important public health victory. island, more than one in 10 of our citizens suffer from asthma. whoe may be people here don't care about that, i do. it is important that the public health side of the equation be recognized as well. i applaud your efforts to regulate the carbon emissions that are coming from new power plants and shortly the regulations we hope for existing power plants. workpe that we can do some on your funding. becausefortunate that of cuts, funding for clean water and drinking water had to be reduced by 30%. those are important programs for our home states. it is unfortunate that the lack of resources has required the

epa to delay some of its work. the coal ash standard that the administrated committed to was the result of a dam collapse in tennessee. and last few weeks, tens of thousands of tons of coal ash from duke energy has contaminated 70 miles of river in north carolina and virginia. the epa is publishing the proposed rules. there has not been action cents. a federal court has instructed you to complete the rule this year. i hope the recent episodes with coal ash disasters have thevated you despite financial pressure. i think it is very unfortunate

for north carolina and virginia. i look forward to working with you. budget and timeframe that will allow for appropriate is to work through budgets and get into some detail rather than mad dashes and brinkmanship at the end between the president and the speaker without senators having an opportunity to participate. i am looking forward to working on that process. lee's continue to go forward on climate change. it is way past denial. nasa scientists have repeatedly shown. that peoplemarkable think that nasa does not know what they are doing and they have an s uv sized vehicle driving around on mars. we will have your back.

>> thank you for staying well within your time. we need to be down onto the floor by 11:20 a.m. we will turn to senator crepeau. >> go ahead. >> thank you. thank you for holding this important hearing. you administrator mccarthy for joining us today. i would like to echo the concern over deep -- john b. larson. concludedifficult to that his work can be trusted at face value. the federal government has

severe challenges. in order to improve our fiscal i understand that the epa like all agencies have been working to achieve the deficit reduction. i am perplexed by some of what i see in the budget proposal. in reviewing the epa budget proposal i'm concerned the agent stronguctions for bipartisan support and are critical programs. while increasing funding for programs that remain controversial. specifically, when we hear about waterproposal for regarding our clean water act and save drinking water statutes , we see the proposed reduction

of funding for the clean water funds.e drinking water that is a big concern. we are facing $200 billion of infrastructure needs. we have been working for adequate budgets to help our nation deal with this to help them deal with the infrastructure and oversee 580 million dollars in reduction of that budget when other parts of the epa budget could have been looked to for the savings is disturbing. we need assistance to ensure the systems meet regulations. it is going to be badly harmed by this budget decision. the proposed reduction in funding is discouraging. i cochaired aer subcommittee hearing in which we heard about the positive impact this program has had in idaho and across the nation. many o