quick the kaiser foundation has been running this from the very beginning. they have a poll that came out this week that showed it lower. they are bringing up this. they have this. obamacare still remains.

>> leadership was moving away to repeal and replace to the lawsuit. >> i think they made this on the repeal and replace votes. that is a good thing. it helps the public focus on how bad this is. on the lawsuit this is something that feels like they have to do. tough one. they know the courts take a wild to act. they have to start doing it now. they are raising millions of dollars.

most of what this president is doing is this. there was the pace to get this motivated. it is not a serious effort. they numbers show that. this is down to 41%. i mentioned the nbc news. the journal poll is down to 40. they try to get the basics so whipped up that hopefully they can stand a loss. we will see if it works. he you never know. >> you mention january next year. will you be talking about republican control? >> i am not a crystal ball.

her only chance is to make this about personalities. it is on the issues. politically speaking. end, we will see if they are successful in doing that. if this election is felt on a whether or not they have whether theyes, are not allowing one on keystone pipeline. you have the spectacle. a vote been able to get on something that is very important. it is kind of embarrassing. if it is on the issues, they are gone. >> how do you explain some of the polling, the troubles with the affordable care act. what we know historically what happens, considering all that,

there are very strong head winds and republican favor. why does it look like a slamdunk ? why is it so competitive? >> two things come to mind. to bevery difficult sitting with the united states senator. it is a good place to look. dramatic genetic -- trouble. i think only two democrats and seats were lost in the same avalanche. it used to be senate seat were more volatile. were the one thate were more volatile. the last biggest shift was 2006. you mentioned that kind of six year itch for bush. he was below 40%.

he lost 30 houses. seats was a big number. the second reason is not a slam dunk. the republican brand is weak. it really is. a lovely conservatives have shifted independent when they sell but inside themselves. one reason they have been doing is theyith independents have rejected this administration. more independent who used to be republican who got fed up with the brand. republican then distill we. i do think they were able to recruit but are candidates. they have a better core of candidates. their.as to >> they let spending go. they did some good things.

they did 2001 and three attacks. they use this. abc nightline called as a young, scrappy upstarts. it has changed i guess. we decided the 50 most egregious caremark in the -- earmarks in the country. do think the brand was diminished among a lots of conservatives. i will say the president has been successful with class warfare primarily in harming the brand further. a lot of the republicans are doing self in foot is damage.

>> is a part of the problem that the republican party is viewed no, theas the party of party that shut down the government. supported ofshot that. >> we were not. we openly said we thought it was fault. -- flawed. was a flawless strategy. we had the sequester in place. it was not perfect but it was a way to tighten down discretionary spending. when you have a shutdown we ended up losing the sequester budget. they were blown through. these were bitter defeats from the sides of government that occurred. betweendo anything this. i do think americans are not as concerned about this.

, there is datans out today. they have done a poll about trusting the federal government. threeave been taking this or four decades now. it is the lowest level of trust in the federal government ever, even lower. >> have republicans learned a lesson? a story about the legislation that the house republicans have passed. offsets. not include alt going further into debt and deficit. have they learned a lesson? like i think they have learned some of the wrong lessons. is when you thought actually take a firm position early and say we've got to get spending under control and here are the numbers that a

reasonable and do it early, i -2000 levins the 2010 death. they had this proposal. republicans took an early -- 20 debt.1 they have this proposal early. republicans actually won the exchange in the end. the commission was formed that do not do anything. the sequester caps. not perfect but a better result than just spinning out of control. effort tied the budget to another issue. i think the public looks at that and says wait a minute. obamacare is one thing. the budget is another thing. even though we do not like obamacare, we do not know this is the right way to go. that is the reason they lost. they bossed some of the wrong lessons. think about virginia. medicaid expansion. governor tried to

do the same thing that they were going to shut down government if we do not get medication. he made the mistake republicans made. he was punished. his numbers were low. he tried to tie a state budget to an extraneous issue. >> to spend tens of millions of dollars the share. >> can you tell us how much you have spent so far? >> published reports have said were between 55 and 60 million on television ads. and we have a very strong infrastructure on the ground. this is a larger expenditure. i'm not going to give a firm number. it is a significant number.

>> we all know exactly what we are talking about. i will say this. we have spent significantly on efforts like this. this is not a brand-new thing. been very active for a number of years. >> the biggest criticism of the group is that you do not disclose the donors. donors do not have to say who they are giving to. why not just disclose? >> i mentioned the irs scandal. we had the chilling spectacle, the most feared revelatory agency in the nation. targeting american citizens based on the fact that they disagree. it is documented. i think there is a chilling effect. as long as you have abuses like that, both parties have done that.

they only swipe that democrats. it is clear. we think it is the best thing to protect the privacy of donors. they will use the most feared regulatory agency in the year and go after people. they have shown that. thingnk it is a prudent to protect the identities of americans will -- will become the immediate target. >> gladback to the shutdown you also mentioned the farm bill. it was divided. hadrepublican party long this in the business community. you're starting to see that divide on a number of issues. can you please topic about that -- talk about that? >> there is a lot more that

binds the two groups together than separates. when you look at the gulf between the movement in the chamber or the business and what havees the two you government cronyism. careame kind of wealth programs for corporations. we think bo are in effect. that is the biggest one. that is what the export/import thing is. if you look at the gulf between the core democrats and the national association, it is a chas him. you have basic corporate rates. they are using those to say how do you do an inversion policy. i would say there is a real

division between the movement wing of the business but they pale in comparison. a we think not just energy they do not work. we also don't think you should be subsidizing ethanol. basic business tax breaks. those are good. not when you have seen these for tax rates. they don't work. we're going to keep proposing. it causes some discomfort. it is the right thing to do. appendage ofome an the republican party. also?they get subsidies

>> we have said that openly. we put a lot of time and money behind the farm bill battle. it was successful last summer. there's no way around it. that was one of the more bitter policy debates of the year. it harmed the movement to get folks to hold the line. that is one of the reasons we opposed it. not a goal that is insurmountable. it is not one that approaches this. >> you were directly involved in these races. there were two more incumbent republican challenges from the right this week. easilyer one pretty actually after senator cochran had a tougher time. why do you think those efforts failed to beat them in a primary? >> we weren't involved.

to be a monday morning quarterback. i think the view that we would have even though we weren't involved in any of those is that if you think about what is the most important thing having a more. the value proposition will be greater. arepe that the republicans not having so much into movement warfare. i say that looking analytically. we are not practicing. portion choose to use a to direct advocacy.

we are not doing it this year. if you look at the value proposition, it seems that having a different composition in the senate will be more advantageous. again inou do that 2016? this.have not made it is one that we don't want to do. we have only done this once. without the policies were so bad. we did not advocate for mitt romney. important distinction. we were hitting these. >> hillary clinton is the nominee? >> this will take care of itself. it is not the same. >> you expect a big big players.

you are printing this together. artist to have a long-term infrastructure. this often when the policy battles. we will do this at the state level. we have hundreds of staff on the ground. we are not just in states like florida and ohio. .e are also in illinois this is not be remotely in play. it is a national effort to hold this. they have had this for decade. we are determined to build it. pair the folks at the new but running for president. >> it was not a strong accomplishing.

i do not mean that individually. there were some good folks. it is an accomplishment and an experience. i would argue every bit as good. bush andagan and connolly and crane. powerful accomplished for the folks running for president on the republican side. i do not know that we have that. >> you never know for sure who ended up going. i think ted cruz and potentially governor jeb bush and scott walker and john kasich consortium marco rubio is looking here. governors whoare have a strong record of accomplishment.

i know i'm leaving out some folks. of louisiana.l mike pence of indiana. -- i do think it is easy to run this year from the stateside. it will be easier for governor to make his or her case. you have rubio, paul, and ted cruz. >> thank you. we are back with our reporters. how is the senate to looking for this fall 2014? >> it is looking tough for democrats. it is americans for prosperity. they got in very early in some key races.

the louisiana spent a lot of money at the beginning and not the democrats back on their heels. they have been recovering ever since. right now our model at the new york times says the republicans are slightly avery to take the senate. there are three seats that are generally conceded to the republicans. is a matter of finding three or four more. play in oregon. it is not on anyone's radar. >> they add to the millions. are part of it. requires democrats to spend a lot more money. the ground game, but think they

might have a sense of this. groups like this are helping republicans catch up on the ground game. are facing these headwinds. they are still holding on. some of the candidates have not run this. they could be doing better. incumbents have run pretty good campaigns. mark is one example. he is considered a prime target. him between awing

really good advertising campaign and other things. they expect republicans to pick up seats. it is still up in the air. take thesay they do senate in 2014. can they hold in 2016? as favorable as it is for republicans this year, many of the competitive races are in intes that met romney had 2012. in 2016 it is the reverse. you will have a lot to senators up for reelection. >> wisconsin, pennsylvania. yes. i think that will be a challenge for sure. >> some of that will depend on what happens in the senate when they take over. things.conservative at the same time you're

defending all the swing states. how does that play for that? they are aware of this. they had to be perfect. >> what does the legislative landscape look like? >> i've done some reporting. it is about the budget. they are going to try to strike a legit deal. the thing that gives them credibility. it'll be a republican budget. it would have to have some significant spending reductions. that, what role does americans for prosperity play? americans for prosperity once a budget. they will be pushing on their members.

>> they were closer to november. >> it was a ground game. think it will be interesting. they turn out in the midterms. the younger women, minorities whenwe saw, it will help president obama's second turn is home. have so manyen you of these democratic incumbents in the senate running away from president obama. they're very dependent on those. >> politics is unprotect bull. then iowa pops up. the democrats but they would be ok. the landscape is still shifting a bit. we will be watching them.

thank you very much. >> thank you. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2014] coming up in a few moments, some of the coverage of last week's africa leaders summit in washington, d.c. including a pair moderated -- panel moderated by former president bill clinton. e westernafric conservative summit. >> good morning, everyone. i would like to begin by thanking the secretary and mayor bloomberg for the enormous amount of work they and their teams have done to bring us together. i am very grateful to present -- president obama for sponsoring this. this is probably something we should've done a long time ago.