government is trying. it is not for lack of effort. i think the effort can be more has been, as he saying. much more effort is required. basically, you have got to give -- the tribal society is broken up mostly. you have to give them that amount of decision-making process. it should be for their own communities. that is very important. the local communities must decide what is good for them, not what someone sitting in islamabad decides. without knowing anything about the typography or the demography. you can shed light on another conundrum that arises in this process. these figures that are being bandied about, the number of idp is. how is it that the population of 400,000 in 1998, even with the

2.9% annual increase is now over one million in registered idp's? >> i think it is a pretty important point which tells us the fact that even the 1990 eight cents this is not accurate. it was not done in any professional manner. we kept on saying throughout the last decade, there are 3.5 million people who live in fatah. mentioned 5lso million. when i was to pick this right , i used to use the figure of 7 million. ask her to buy my own friend who said there should surely be between 10 and 12 million. this person is producing some of fatah by therts on british government. we're doing a lot of work in the

field. maybe 7-8 for sure. that was one thing. secondly, even in north waziristan, the people in these days who are not coming from the north. they're coming from other areas as well. because of the lack of the infrastructure and economic issues, others who think each person will get a check, this is a good opportunity. if there is no economic activity, you would like to go and get that checked. there's at the show as well. then there is the wrong assessment. there was this issue of how they came up with these assessments. i link this assessment with no bad intention, but with work capacity to analyze. the hakust talk about kani group. we learned that these groups are

to thesing information taliban. they were not only involved on the afghan side. they had links with criminal groups in north pakistan. who is the beneficiary? pakistani taliban. something has to be done about the analytic cold capability of the pakistani government. >> but the absence of the capture or killing of any of these big leaders still remains a very open question. nassari. e to dr. no practices a unique learning experience to hear these three it distinguished experts talking about that area which has been affecting us all this time. -- i am a pakistan

american league. the comments about the army and the area of disconnect. thently, in pakistan, entire higher echelon of the army, i found them converging with total consensus. they were really speaking with one voice. sometimes, -- that is because of the politicians statements and other things that irritate them. other than that, they're working together in an army unit. they were working closely with this administration. he might be -- which we don't.

reward to terrorism. the enemy is faceless. even the superpowers have generally failed in this territory. given a timeline or a timeframe, our closure of this war is very difficult to get. the real test will come after december. time, -- to rehabilitate all these people about the numbers we are disputing. since the afghani taliban would be under pressure

by the afghan forces, there is a high desertion rate. he will be under pressure, the afghani taliban, by the afghan forces. they will be under pressure either pakistan army. ofthere any possibility applying the doctrine of necessity that they might start working together, taking both sides as a common enemy? back whoose in the couldn't hear the doctor. there are 2.2 is making. in his own visit to pakistan he saw a great convergence among all the military people that he the aims of this exercise. the question was, is a possibility of the afghan and pakistani taliban joining hands.

>> i think early this year the pakistan army intercepted several sources. there is a delay. this was a message. at that point, it became a nightmarish possibility. was after the post-2014 drawdown. i have no doubt in my mind that whatever the differences are, at the end of the day, they are one thus far as ideology is concerned. the second part, which is that you said that the afghan taliban will be under pressure from the

afghan forces. i think it is the other way around. the forces will be under pressure from the taliban. having eliminated this last stronghold, we have done a tremendous favor to the afghan national forces by not allowing their logistics to take place from this place. it will have to really recapture this area from the pakistan army to do this. obviously, i have no blueprint. i can only take my guess is from other things. thecommitment i've seen in pakistan army which i've never seen in all my life. it is something which is amazing. pleasure to get the feedback from them. in my own unit, take it for my was in southch

waziristan for two years. talk with them regularly. people, 9000 rx servicemen. all the mongols, brothers, cousins, what have you, and the armed forces. you have regular feedback on what is happening. my own feeling is, the optimism is there. whether it is misplaced optimism i do not know. i think the optimism is there. hassan has a very good point. you have to activate. we do not have a national security status. we do not have a national security strategy. the civil government has to spell out a strategy. once you have set up national security, there's a common minimum program which all the political parties agree on, then you can go ahead and do all the things within that framework.

in a framework we disagree, you can sit down and debate. add briefly like to ? i understand your hope. you need very well when you say this, because you want to see pakistani democracy flourished. hope is that a method. it is not about only convergence. civilian supremacy. civilians have to decide and make policy decisions. an army's implementation takes orders fromkings civilian population is important. military officers are paid government officials. they have to always be subservient to and respectful towards military leadership. aat is happening in democratic transition. one point about convergence of afghan taliban and the

pakistani taliban. we will see some action. unit goesis military on the side of the taliban. general since the vietnam war died in action if i am correct. that was recently in national defense in kabul. these are the signs that the taliban is not going anywhere. on the pakistani side, i was more hopeful. the way they have expanded their in the province in karachi, there's no signs of any effective cord needed action, the rise of the pakistani taliban may be under a different name. i think that is not possible, it is highly likely. at some stage, the convergence

of interests and coming together some of the militant sides, i hope to be proved wrong about the title of my book. -- the future of the political crisis will be a major factor in deciding what is going to happen on the side of the afghan taliban. >> we have a question in the second row. >> if you could stand up and identify yourself and ask your question. >> i'm a recent graduate of the university of texas. operation wasthe very strategically handled by the pakistan army. also the government is trying to target. my question is that keeping in mind the border between afghanistan and pakistan, do think operations open and -- do you think

operations in northern wires down will put an end to the taliban factories? -- the freedom that they had. it was possible that they have some hideouts in the mountains. the freedom of movement that they could actually roam around century they that had is not possible. strategically, the pakistan army and air force wanted to go there in the end of february. the time the operation to lace, one hour after the last folding finished in the afghan presidential election. they timed it so that once wastions are over, the hit by the air force mostly. i want to go back to something interesting.

you mentioned karachi. i have lived in karachi. it is a far better place than what it was a year back. force to a quasimilitary called the rangers. the pakistan rangers. as of that, the targeted killings have come down. large portions of karachi are dominated by the taliban, that is totally untrue. false. some political parties to dominate that area. the np dominate some areas, the people dominate some areas. the taliban may certainly be there. of karachi are dominated by the taliban. the rangers have done a good job over the last eight months, nine months, to restore law and order. caughtave been people

away days ago one street from one of the leaders house. he's a confessed killer. he only killed about 72 people. he confessed it. can you take or is someone who is killed 72 people and say he is politically motivated? that is is a question in the back. after that i would like to come to the front over here. these will be the last two questions. i'm so sorry. we are running out of time. go ahead. >> good morning. [indiscernible] my question is really concerned -- it seems to me the

pakistani army is stretched too thin. some in a different provinces within pakistan that are having to come back. the army is stretched. what is that mean for development? i am concerned about the human impact. >> the question is about the economic impact on pakistan's economy as a whole. the me take another question and then we will have both of you answer them. go ahead. for your very informative presentation. thedoes the panel view appointment of special representative by china for afghanistan recently?

>> a special representative of china for afghanistan and pakistan. this is very late in the game. let me go back to the young man over there who i was going to ignore because of the time, but i think if you can get a question and we can get an answer. can you comment on the security articles in light of 2, 4 and five, especially with maybe that might undermine gains in north waziristan. >> the question is about the imposition of article 245, which in aid.ing the military

as of today, section 144 has been imposed on islamabad, which means you can have a gathering of more than four people in the public. to the next. if you wouldn't mind trying to wrapnd to these, that will us up. >> i'm not qualified to answer more about idp's. i will focus on this. i think the civilian law enforcement agencies lack the support 144. it will be a good test to see. this -- they will be looking for this opportunity to conduct terrorist attacks in islamabad. again, i think pakistani -- neither pakistani intelligence

nor the police have the capacity to stop suicide bombers. that is why the government is ready nervous about this issue. will see this kind of absence of capacity there. lock tobe coincidence, save pakistan from a security threat. china is very insightful. it is coming. iranian influence, chinese influence is increasing. there's no doubt about it. time, had the first police training. he was the, the focuses only on the economic factors. we have seen this change. i think they have choreographed it very statistically from their point of view. in some ways it can be good. more regional and national interest in afghanistan, so far, is only the night is dates some of its

allies which took the main responsibility in afghanistan. if china is taking more responsibility and initiative from other countries, in principle that should be a good sign. >> my own personal information from the chinese, they have expressed an interest in participating in peacekeeping on a much larger scale than before. even now, there are 600 peacekeepers for the u.n.. >> i think one more reason which people are aware of, but it don't think it comes out, is that the chinese have strategically decided to have a economicakistani corridor. they're investing money inroads and railways. that is attached to the people's liberation army in 1970i was a helicopter pilot. based wonder where the hell the road was going to and where was it coming from.

now they have $20 billion every year invested in the province. they're absolutely determined to get this road through. makes sense for them to have somebody for this area, -- there are some who would interact with the government so if there's any this will goause right through the center, through this area where the trouble is taking part. there are railway lines and spike lines, you will have problems. they are investing a lot in the power stations. all these power stations are strong north and south along this area. to answer your question about they -- my own feeling is that the pakistan

government will not be able to do it without help from outside agencies. they must take help from specialized agencies like unesco and all these different agencies. the world food program is artie there helping out. i think that -- is already there helping out. i believe there is coordination at the government level going on. factor oristurbing handicap is the fear for the safety and security. that is the only thing. thatovernment is insisting even if his agencies have to operate in this area, they must have a pakistani element rather than from outside persons coming in. >> one figure which has been cited that the government of pakistan related to the costs of the security operations and the cost to the economy over the

last decade, plus, has been upwards of $60 billion to the pakistan economy. numbers, but those that is a very fitting and to this very rich conversation, which included military tactics and strategy and discussion of the civilian aspects and the economy. i think the critical part that is still missing, and it is still too early to say when -- ends, tell me how this ends. i think nobody yet knows how this is going to end. it certainly has raised enough questions and i am very grateful to my guests for helping us understand which way this is going and what the government -- with the pertinent questions are. unless pakistani society, pakistan civil government and

institutions in the military can get together and carve out a national strategy this is not going to end well. optimistic note, i want to thank you for coming. [applause] security department.

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