literally meaning he is a descendent of the prophet mohammed. if anything he says is true. do you feel the american intelligence community has a solid handle on who this guy is, where he comes from, what his ideology is, or is this still a work in progress? >> we have a pretty good sense. i do think that your characterization of him as somewhat shadowy is absolutely fair. publicnot struck a persona in the way others have. their other members of the group that have a large public persona. we spend a fair amount of time in the broader community learning what we possibly can about him. >> do you think he comes from the same ideological bent as our

colleague and bin laden? the level of violence, the him in thatuts category. >> i do think he shares that ideology, both in terms of the level of violence and, ultimately, grandiose aspirations he has set forth. so yes, i would put him in the same category. isil has set itself on a path apart from the rest of al qaeda and in part based on their disagreement with the tactics. and the approach. is more about means. with respect to ends, they share the same ideology. >> to emphasize that isil or isis or whatever you a to call is part of a broader transformation, let's call it al

qaeda is him, in the last couple of years. in that context, how worried are ,ou that the old al qaeda core perhaps with new leaders coming in, is poised to view resurrected and research as the united states and nato, who draw forces from afghanistan and pakistan? of seeing anger repeat of what has happened in iraq or al qaeda in iraq? we thought it was, if not destroy, at least on the back foot, resurrecting itself with al qaeda for or al qaeda core like groups? >> we are obviously vigilant in possibility and working closely with afghan security forces, as well as

other partners in the region. to continue to maintain the pressure we have been able to place on al qaeda to ensure that does not happen. i am confident we will take steps necessary to prevent anything like that type of resurgence of al qaeda in that part of the world. >> i will press you a little bit here there is a difference between taking it seriously, and this is notd that the 2014 threat, but the 2017 threat. >> right. it is fair to press me on that point. part of my job is to be worried about these things. i have all the gray hair that i have and that is why. comforted when i see the work that goes on, so i will

go back to that point, that we're going to take the steps we need to take to make sure that whether it is 2014 or 2017, we do not see that type of insurgents. the president made a number of speeches where he has talked about this, and what i talked about in terms of diffusion and decentralization of the threat. we need to be steely eyed about the threat, where it comes up, where it rises to a level of threat to the kind of the u.s., whether our interests in the region or here at home, that we will do whatever is necessary to disrupt and defeat that threat. secretary kerry and secretary hagel and how going to the middle east after spending the weekend in wales, the question i am constantly asked by people, and you hear it on talk shows everywhere, is, where are our muslim allies? people we fighting these

and the common american perception is, many of our allies are taking a lackadaisical approach. most often heard with regard to saudi arabia. anyout compromising intelligence collection activity, how would you characterize how our muslim allies, and you can name names if you want or say they, are working with -- shout out the ones who helped the most and be quiet about this. the countriesows we work so closely with in the region, and i mentioned areas where i think it begins with a threat. you look at the areas, the countries threatened by the rise of isil. obviously, lebanon, jordan, turkey, and, increasingly, others, saudi arabia. these are countries we are closely allied with and are

both openly and less openly, to take on this threat. results ofard to the what is happening at the nato summit and then further diplomatic efforts, more in the purview of the secretary of state and the secretary of defense, to build those partnerships and form this coalition. i think there is every reason to believe based on what is happened so far, that it will coalesce. >> i mentioned in introducing you that you worked on gone, no -- one, no -- guantánamo. to see american stressed to look like guantánamo prisoners. looking back, how damaging has it been, how damaging is it still today, that the guantánamo

facility six years after president obama called for it to be shut is still our overall effort to counter overall efforts? >> there is no doubt that, first, it is important to note our view that there is no group as successful and effective as isl is at using propaganda, particularly using social media. they outpaced any others in how they used the internet to spread their message. as we have seen in the past, part of that is the guantánamo imagery. that, along with a number of other tools, are things that they turn to, or messages they turn to, to try to spread their message and radicalize others. i do think it is important to

say here, there should be no equivalency and we should reject any sense of it between what we and ourhose videos country's policies. i want to make sure that is clear. time, we are working hard in support of the president's goal to" guantanamo. we are with the rest of the community, part of that effort. >> you have been doing this for some time and you mentioned in your talk that not only is the threat transform, but we are transformed. the national counterterrorism , actually set up derived from an earlier effort, but we do not need to go into chronology and bureaucracy here, to connect the dots. we felt after september 11, we knew after september 11, information was not properly start -- shared. -- at how the nt

u.s. government more broadly functions, how would you characterize for americans the level at which we are now connecting the dots, bringing the information together, and really making sure we do not of data slipeces through the >> as they did before september 11? >> that is a soft ball. thank you. i appreciate that. we thing to point out is were, just last week, celebrating our 10th anniversary. we were -- an executive order in august of 2004 and then codified in the intelligence reform act later that year. , ayears of history relatively young organization. but really reflective of the overall counterterrorism community and the level of collaboration within this community, the level of information sharing, it stands as a model for the rest of the government in how we work.

the imperative of 9/11 gave us the momentum to break down barriers to sharing information and we basically have been working that since 2001 and certainly since we were created in 2004. more concretely, there are real examples of the government working together in ways that are hard to imagine. i would point to the captures earlier this year. where the intelligence community, working with military forces, working with the law enforcement community, these individuals are now facing justice. a longtime al qaeda operative indicted for his role in the bombings,998 embassy and another charged with his role in benghazi. a seamlessxamples of

counterterrorism effort where intelligence, military, law enforcement, all working coordinated. all in a way, it is hard to imagine any other country being able to pull off something like that. it is something i am particularly proud of, as we see the small part in supporting that. but again, we are exemplifying the level of collaboration and coordination within the u.s. government counterterrorism community. >> we have given you one chance at a softball so we will go to a hardball. please identify yourself and make it a question and not a speech. >> thank you. i am from the is -- the atlantic council. two questions. is it possible to defeat or even isis whilely degrade assad remains at least in

.ominal control in syria what is the role in i ran -- in iran to help united states defeat what is a mutual threat. thank you. question, it absolutely is, without regards to the question of assad. it is absolutely possible to and defeat isil, particularly over the long run. it will take time. part of that will mean working to secure a political transition in syria. as long as assad is in that a role with no legitimacy in his own country, we have seen syria is a magnet , which obviously complicates the security picture

from our perspective, but provides resources and support for isil, and other groups. part of the broader strategy over the long term is a political transition in syria. respect to the second question, with respect to iran's iraq --iraq, obviously, ironic has interest in that region as well, it is a neighbor. i will not say much more about iran's role. >> i work for the bbc. i was wondering if you could the a little bit about homegrown president. americans joining the fight in syria. i am particularly wondering about radical preachers, how you're dealing with them now, and whether it is different now. also how you compare it to have the uk's handling the problem.

click the u.k. raised its threat level. they have a different system than we do for that particular question. the threat level question. i mentioned we think over 100 americans traveled to syria. of thoseknow how many have joined isil. we think 100 have gone to join syrian opposition and effort. many of those, we think, have joined extremist groups. the united in kingdom is substantially more significant in terms of numbers. the prime minister mentioned as many as 500 in his remarks last week. the situations are similar. the situation is more pronounced. about foreign fighters traveling to those countries and then returning home. that is largely a consequence of the geographic proximity of the u.k. to syria and the ease with

which one can travel there. we're doing a number of things. if he i has a lead on this with causingderstand what is folks in the united states the desire to go to syria. it is part of a broader strategy . we have seen this in the past with individuals desiring to go to places like somalia. certainly, the u.k. has this as well, with the number of individual seeking to go to pakistan and other places. we work really closely with the u.k. understanding the nature of that radicalization process and the kinds of steps we can take from a law enforcement perspective, to stem that flow. here in the united states, we have tools. the fbi has the lead here. when we see someone who committed a crime, being able to arrest them before they go.

>> thank you very much. i write to the mitchell report and i want to come back and ask the flip side of a question --ised polls -- bruce holst bruce posed earlier. back where we were in 9/11, 2001. i want to ask this question. you talked about what the motivating factors of americans joining isil might be. it possible, and, do we have a way of analyzing, if not measuring, the extent to which inrica's staying in the game these countries?

and the so-called collateral damage in particular. isil than it is eradicating? and doing so, multigenerational fo --tigenerational h moats -- multigenerationally? doing have a choice? -- do we have a choice? >> one of the ways i would answer the question is to refer back to the work that has been done over the last couple of years by the it ministration, by the president, to set our efforts, our direct action legal policy sound

with key points that we will take action only when there is a continuing in a ,inute threat to u.s. persons and one that is enduring, that will be in place for the foreseeable future. and that is dedicated to limiting any harm to noncombatants. this is the way we have announced the approach. and that we could hold out to the rest of the world to show it is one that i think addresses the concerns you raised. at the end of the day, the president has again made clear that where there are continuing an imminent risks or threats to u.s. people, to americans, and to answer that last part of your question, the choice is to take the action that is necessary to stop those threats. again, i think you have seen that level of aggressiveness

from the counterterrorism community, whether it is in situations i mentioned where we captured individuals because, where we can, we have taken that step. we have captured individuals, even in dangerous missions like that, where we have been aggressive, certainly as has been announced this past summer, where we sought to rescue, unfortunately not to -- not successfully, to rescue hostages in syria. where we need to be aggressive and assertive, we will be. but the counterterrorism policies for direction -- direct action are on a footing that we can hold out as being and legal and sustainable over the long term. >> to those of you who came early and get in the front, you get a benefit from my inability to see anything more than 10 feet away. >> thank you for being here.

simply put, terrorism as a global phenomenon is fed by recruit. feel disenfranchised, discriminated against, and economically stifled. they are infinitely susceptible to propaganda promising prestige and a paycheck. could you comment more on the propaganda countermeasures being implemented, with or without international partners, to fight,the allure of this as well as economic impact of these states, where recruitment is high, that could bolster communication efforts? >> a very good question. obviously, as you look across these areas i mentioned when i went through this around the world description of the types of threats we are concerned about, one of the common themes we see in these countries is not only a lack of governance and lack of security, the problems more deep-seated than that in

terms of economic opportunity, educational opportunities. really deep-seated socioeconomic problems that are certainly the conditions that give rise to basically young man with little hope, little future, turning to radical and in some cases, ultimately violent extremism behavior. so, there is a broad array of things that need to be done that go far beyond the remit of nt tc and these are long-term systemic concerns working with the rest of our allies, regional partners, to address and largely work down through the state department as well, and in some cases, the defense department, to address. an answer to your question. the first part -- the first part of your question is about counter messaging. one of things we do is analyze the nature of message our adversaries are putting out.

what messages are they using? why do they think these resonate and do they? if so, in what ways and with whom? informationde that to other elements of the government, particularly the state department, having a more outward facing role helping to push back on that message through diplomatic and strategic medications. we would not be the ones to actually send out that message. we help analyze it and understand it the help inform anse are fossil in shaping image in the u.s. and shaping a counter message that would be effective. >> i want to build on the question little bit here in 2000 and 2001, we were dealing with the failed state in afghanistan and repercussions. the failed states now going by the half-dozen, we have got serious, iraq, failed or failing. libya, which is barely a country anymore.

yemen, a prime candidate to move up into the dubious category. nigeria, if iern look at it, the resources of the counterterrorism committee of the united states are now being asked to be stretched very far and wide. how do we figure out what the priorities are and how do we ron does notal hi load trade next week, because they have the essential to do so, but we do not have the resources focus on strategic thinking. >> an important part of what we do and essential question. as we look across the middle east and north africa, we see all these countries that are in some sense not being affected -- effective at governing. we see terrorist groups take

advantage of insurgencies. 11, more or less, but that is about where we see the number of countries where terrorist groups are taking advantage of insurgencies. and prioritizing and understanding what is happening in these countries, so that we can allocate limited resources a centraly, it is -- challenge for us. the president talked about this at west point and on other occasions, where he pointed out we have to work with our partners and build up the capabilities of some of these countries and seek to develop solutions beyond the u.s., going and militarily. across these countries, i think the key for me is to be very precise and careful about identifying the level of threat they pose, that the groups pose and operate.

not just putting all of these groups on the same plane. vicious as heras rom has been, we do not see that posing a threat to us here in the united states, or even now really having an agenda to do so. that does not mean that may not change. but right now, it is not core al qaeda. ,he groups operating in libya brutal, militias, certainly, the terrorist attack in benghazi was a significant attack. do not necessarily put those individuals on the same plane as we do core al qaeda. the challenge is prioritizing, being clear about the threat, being steely eyed about where we to put our limited

resources, and then, making a really concerted effort to build capacity and international coalitions to do with these problems. >> we are getting close to the witching hour, so i will take three questions, starting here, and then write their, and then the gentleman back there. hopefully, we will have time for one more round. >> thank you. i am from brookings. my question is to take you back to syria. during your remarks, you talked about the importance of working with the government as a strategy for iraq. during the q and a, you mentioned political transformation. assad has showed his staying power and -- over and over again. what is the short-term strategy for the u.s. to a dress threats you identified with respect to syria? , isl hasf it is to say

now changed the ballgame with respect to the border. there's really not a border between iraq and syria. when we look at this as a challenge, we look at both countries. the short-term strategy has been, as i discussed, to protect americans in iraq. those in diplomatic facilities, particularly in baghdad, and then to help avert humanitarian crises we saw beginning to form in a number of places. that is a short-term strategy. the longer-term strategy is to build an international coalition that will build all the tools we have to bear on the problem and that includes beginning with more inclusive governments in iraq and we made strong progress there under a new prime minister , but then over the longer term,

it includes a transition in that will government be inclusive as well. that is a long-term proposition. that will require a concerted diplomatic effort by not just the united states, but particularly countries in the region. >> we will take three. one right here. >> with fox news, my question relates to threats you talked about, foreign fighters going to syria and the region and bringing their skills back home. any that in mind, are there cells in the united states, whether it is people who have come back and flew under the radar, or people who remained behind as some organizational support? what can you tell us about the second american from minneapolis who apparently worked at the airport? my questionart of is about the video yesterday.

within a few hours of the video coming out, there were -- there were reports and isil pose on the twitter page or facebook page apologizing to their followers that the video was posted by mistake. could that be seen as sort of a fracturing within the organization and some kind of power struggle in terms of propaganda leadership and influence? >> we will take two more. >> let me go ahead and answer the question or are you saying, we save those for later? life this will be the last round. those twonot remember questions. let me quickly answer. i would answer the first part. the second two parts, it is more in the range of speculation, so i will not touch those. no indication at this point of a fightersoreign operating in the united states. . .

we are mindful and vigilant about the possibility of individuals, more likely on back own, 1, 2, coming from syria. we have seen that model in toope. there is every reason be concerned about that as a potential, not happening now, but a potential in the united states. clear, we are working very hard, fbi, department of homeland security, along with particularly european partners, to understand who those individuals are, to track their movement, and to be in a position to disrupt any violent activities they might engage in. >> has there been any -- does isil have any objectives against israel? have they attempted any actions or, is for some reason israel

off their radar screen? >> i sit here and i am trying to think if there has been any indication along those lines of attacks against israel. anything --nking of nothing comes to mind in response to your question. given everything we know about that part of the world -- i am not aware of anything in particular. >> very last question. >> thank you very much. broadcast to pakistan and broader regions. this morning, there were reports from the region that isil had to the propaganda.

and the border regions and pete getting them off the posters in the back of the car. my question is the background i started reaching out and experts are believing some of the taliban groups may have been alive. to much is this a concern the united states, particularly when they want stabilizing? >> can i broaden that a little bit? you said of baghdad he and and islamic state are now trying to be the new al qaeda, how much indication do you see that out there in lebanon, libya, message ishat starting to resonate. we're seeing an alignment with the united states.

have seen individuals, including influential individuals within some of the either oft state some casesnce or in more affinity for the successes that they have had and tactics. situation.ynamic the competition and a queue on the other. a concern we have that perhaps to demonstrate they are the leader they would seek to carry that wouldck establish bona fide. very dynamic situation. i go back to the propaganda points. we focus on the english language propaganda but they are using propaganda and a range of languages across the region. it is not just focused on u.s.

or western audiences. obviously an area of grave concern for us so we are watching the situation very closely. lex thank you very much. is to be ahe prize local jihadist group and attack the homeland. i want to thank you for coming us a serious and balanced assessment. because mr. olson is a very busy person, and i ask all of you tuesday in your seats while he and i try to slip out the back or? >> thank you very much. [applause]

>> the nsa, what is it? what does it do? it was hard to answer these questions for edward snowden nmp sa contractor leaked thousands of detailed classified documents to the public. these show the full extent of the nsa surveillance on

americans. >> the nsa is doing both data collection. it is not limited in scope to terrorist, to spies to speem that they have probable cause to believe that they are commiting to some type of crime. it is bulk collection of data. the nsa is very controversial. congress puts this as their number one issue. president obama's visit to estonia comes the day before the start of the nato summit

wales.eld in [applause] >> thank you very much. his father and i agreed that we're getting gray so we have to make sure that somebody's coming up behind us. please give oscar a big round of applauds for the great job that he did. [applause]

to the president and distinguished guests, to the people of estonia, it is a great pleasure to be with you in this historic city in this beautiful land. i thank you for the incredible hospitality that you have shown me today. i understand the weather is always like this. my only regret is that i missed he summer's weather and i will try to come back next time and catch it. i bring with me the friendship of the american people and i am honored to be the first president of the united states to deliver an address like this to the people of estonia. i just had the opportunity to meet wups again with the presidents of all the battlic states and i thank -- ball tick states and i thank the presidents of latvia and lithuania for being here. we are joined by friends

throughout the region and i want to say a special welcome to everyone watching this out in freedom square. i am especially pleased to see so many young people here today because like oscar you are fulfilling the dream that your parents and grandparents struggled for but could only imagine, and that is living your lives in free and dependent and democratic baltic nations. hat dream of endured through centuries of occupation and oppression. it blossomed into independence only to have it stolen by foreign pacts and secret protocols. it survived the mass deportations that ripped parents from their children. it was defended by forest brothers in their resistance

and sustained by poets and authors who kept alive your languages and cultures. and here, in estonia, it was a dream that found its most eloquent expression in your voices. on a grassy field not far from here, when estoneions found the courage to stand up against an empire and sing, land of my fathers, land that i love. and he spoke for the entire revolution when he said, one day, no matter what, we will win. [applause] and then exactly 25 years ago people across the baltics came together in one of the greatest displays of freedom and

nonviolent resistance that the world has ever seen. on that august evening, perhaps 2 million people stepped out of their homes and joined hands, a human chain of freedom. the baltic way. they stretched down highways from city farmlands, to city, hey lit candles and they sang anthems. old men and women brought out their flags of independence, and young parents brought their children to teach them that when ordinary people stand together great change is possible. here in estonia, when people joined the line, the password was freedom. as one man said that day, the berlin wall is made of brick and concrete. our wall is stronger. and it was. within months that wall in

berlin was pushed open. the next year the battlic peoples finally voted in elections. and when the forces of the past made their last grab for power, you stood up. lithuanians faced down tanks. latvians manned barricades. here, citizens rushed to the tv tower to defend the air waves of democracies. you won. you reclaimed your countries. and in your new constitution you declared the independence and sovereignty of estonia, are imeless and inalienable. t the people of the baltic tions also knew that freedom needs the foundation of security. so you reached out to join the nato allylyance.

and we are proud to william you. so that your timeless independence, will always be guaranteed by the strongest military alliance the world has ever known. today people working to build their own democracies, from for o tunis, look to you inspiration. your experience cautions that progress is neither easy nor quick. here, after decades of authoritarian rule, the habits of democracy had to be learned. the institutions of good governance had to be built. economies had to be reformed. foreign forces had to be removed from your territory. transitions of this magnitude are daunting for any nation. but the baltics show the world what's possible when free peoples come together for the change that they see.

and in that great contest of ideas, between freedom and authoritarianism, between liberty and oppression, your success proves like that human chain 25 years ago that our way will always be stronger. we're stronger because we're democracies. we're not afraid of free and fair elections. because true legitimacy can only come from one source, and that is the people. we're not afraid of an independent judiciary because no one is above the law. we're not afraid of a free press. for vibrant debate, for a strong civil society because leaders must be held accountable. we're not afraid to let our young people go on line to learn and discover and organize

because we know that countries are more successful when citizens are free to think for themselves. we're stronger because we embrace open economies. look at the evidence. here in estonia we see the success of free markets, integration with europe, taking on tough reforms, u you've become one of the most wired countries on earth, a global ard in e-government, high-tech startups. the entrepreneurial spirit of the estonia people has been unleashed. and innovations like skype are ransforming the world. and we're stronger because we stand together. this year we celebrate the tenth anniversary of the baltics in nato.

a decade ago, skeptics wondered whether your countries were up to the task. and today they need only look at our training exercises where our troops grow stronger together, shoulder to shoulder. they can look at afghanistan where our forces have sacrificed together to keep us safe and where in just three months the largest operation in nato history will come to an end as planned. there's no doubt the baltics is made our alliance stronger. and your progress reflects the larger truth. because of the work of generations, because we stood together in a great alliance, because people across this continent have forged a european union dedicated to operation and peace, we've made historic progress towards the vision we share, a europe that is whole and free and at peace.

and yet as we gather here today, we know that this vision is threatened. by russia's aggression against ukraine. it is a brazen assault on the territorial integrity of ukraine, a sovereign and independent european nation. it challenges that most basic of principles of our international system, that borders can not be redrawn at the barrel of a gun, that nations have the right to determine their own future. it undermines an international order where the rights of peoples and nations are upheld and can't simply be taken away by brute force. this is what's at stake in ukraine. this is why we stand with the people of ukraine today.

[applause] u now, let's put to rest once and for all the distortions or outdated thinking that has caused this crisis. our nato alliance is not aimed against any other nation. we're an alliance of democracies dedicated to our own collective defense. countries like estonia, latvia, lithuania, are not post soviet territories. you are sovereign and independent nations with the right to make your own decisions. no other nation gets to veto your security decisions. were tests on ukraine

not led by neo nazis or fascists. they were led by ordinary ukrainians, men and women, young and old, who were fed up with a corrupt regime. and who wanted to share in the progress and prosperity that they see in the rest of europe. and they did not engage in an armed seizure of power. after an agreement was brokered or constitutional reform, if the former president then abandoned his office and parliament endorsed new elections. so that today ukrainians have a new democratically elected president. and i look forward to welcoming president por shanko to the oval office this month. he was chosen by the people of ukraine.

it was not the government of kiev that destabilized the eastern ukraine, it is the pro russian separatists financed by russia, armed by russia, and the russian forces that have now moved into ukraine are not on a humanitarian or peace-keeping mission. they are russian combat forces with russian weapons in russian tanks. ow, these are the facts. they are proveable. they are not subject to dispute. as a result of state-run propaganda many russians have become convinced that the actions taken by their government is strengthning russia. but reaching back to the days of the czarrists, trying to claim lands lost in the 19th century, is surely not the way

to secure russia's greatness in the 21st century. [applause] it only shows that unrestrained nationalism is the last refuge of those who cannot or will not deliver real progress or opportunity for their people at home. let's also be clear where we stand. just as we refuse to accept smaller european nations being dominated by bigger neighbors in the last century, we reject any talk of spears of influence today. [applause] and just as we never accepted the occupation and illegal annexation of the baltic nations, we will never accept russia's annexation of crimea

or any part of ukraine. [applause] s free peoples, as an alliance we will stand firm and united to meet the test of this moment. here's how. first, we will defend our nato allies. and that means every ally. nd no old members or new members, no junior partners or senior partners. they are just allies, pure and simple. now, we will defend the territorial integrity of every single ally. today, more nato aircraft atrol the skies of the baltics, more american forces are on the ground training and rotating through each of the states. more nato ships patrol the black sea. tonight i depart for the nato

summit in wale senior citizen and i believe they should extend these defensive measures for as long as necessary. for it is just as important as the defense of berlin and paris and london. [applause] during the long soviet occupation, the great estonia poet wrote a poem in which she cried to the world, who will come to help? right here at present? now? and i say to the people of stonia and the people of baltics we are bound. we have a solemn duty to each other. article 5 is crital clear.

an attack on one is an attack on all. so if you ever ask again who will come to help you know the answer, the nato alliance including the armed forces of the united states of america, present, now. [applause] we'll be here for estonia, we will be here for latvia, we will be here for lithuania. you lost your independence once before with nato. you will never lose it again. [applause] second, and in addition to the measures we've already taken, the united states is working to bolster the security of our nato allies and further

increase the presence in europe. the proposition i proposed in war saw this week include several positions to be done, positioning more equipment, more training and exercises between our militaries. and it would mean more u.s. forces including american boots on the ground, continuously rotating through estonia, latvia, and lithuania. third, nato forces need the ability to deploy even fast anywhere times of crisis. now, this week our alliance must unite around a new plan to enhance our readieness. and that means we need to step up our defense planning so we're fully prepared for any threat to any ally. it also means we need to have the infrastructure and facilities that can receive rapid reinforcements, including

here in the baltics. we need to enhance nato ds rapid response force so it can deploy even more quickly and not just react to threats but also deter them. and even as we meet conventional threats, we need to face other challenges. and that includes propaganda campaign to try to whip up fears and divide people from one another. we reject the idea that people cannot live and thrive together just because they have different backgrounds or speak danchte language. and the best antidotes to such distorted speaking are the value that is define us. not just in the baltics, but throughout europe, we must acknowledge the inherent dignity and human rights of every person, because our

democracies cannot truly succeed until we root out bias and prejudice both from our institutions and from our hearts. we have to uphold a free press, freedom of speech, because in the end lives and misinformation are no match for the truth. we have to embrace open and inclusive societies because our countries are more successful and more pross press when we welcome the talents of all people including minorities. that's part of the work that we must do. hat's the example we must set. fourth, even as we keep our countries strong at home we need to keep our eyelyance strong for the future. like energies, surveillance, reconnaissance, missile defense and here in europe nations need to do more to spur the growth and prosperity if it sustains

our alliance. to its great dret, astonia stands out as an ally that contributes its u full share its 2% of the g.d.p. to defense of alliance. and loot va and lithuania -- latvia and lithuania have pledged to do the same. so this week -- that's worth applause. so this week's summit is the moment for every nato nation to step up and commit to meeting its responsibilities to our alliance. estonia does it. every ally must do it. fifth. we must continue to stand united against russia's aggression in ukraine. [applause]

keep in mind that repeatedly president putin has ignored the opportunity to resolve the crisis in ukraine diplomatically. the united states, the european union, our partners around the world, have all said we prefer a diplomatic solution. but in light of russia's unwillingness to seize that opportunity, we have come major to impose sanctions on raugs for its actions. and make no mistake. russia is paying a price. capital is fleeing, foreign investment is plummeting. because today's investors know that russia is a bad bet because of its bare. the russian economy has slipped into recession, the production

is expected to drop. its credit rating is near junk status. the ruble fell to an all-time low. in short, russia's actions in ukraine are weakening russia. russia's actions are hurting the russian people. it doesn't have to be this way. we have no interest in weakening russia. it's a nation with a rich history and a remarkable people. we do not seek out confrontation with russia. over the past two decades, the united states has gone to great lengths to welcome russia into the community of nations and to encourage its economic success. we welcome a russia that is strong and growing and contributes to international security and peace and that resolves disputes peacefully with diplomacy.

in contrast to russia's isolation and economic woes today, that path which would include a stable and prosperous ukraine whose sovereignty is respected would also ultimately result in greater respect for russia. that path remains available to russia. that path will deliver truer progress for the russian people. but it's a path that starts by russia changing course and leaving ukraine so that ukraine can make their own decisions. i have no doubt that one of their decisions will be to have strong relations with the not just europe, but also with russia. it has to be freely chosen.

this brings me to the final area where our nations have to come together. in our steadfast support for those who reach up for their freedom. including the people of ukraine. few understand this better than the baltic peoples. you know from bitter experience that we can never take our security and liberties for granted. we want ukrainians to be independent and strong and able to make their own choices free from fear and intimidation. because the more countries are free and strong and free from intimidation, the more secure our own liberties are. the united states will continue to help ukraine reform to build democratic institutions and growth economy.

like other european nations, diversify its energy sources because no country should ever be held hostage to another nation that wields energy like a weapon. [applause] we will continue to offer training and assistance to help the ukrainian military grow stronger as they defend their country. since there is no military solution to this crisis, we will continue to support the president's efforts to achieve peace. like all independent nations, ukraine must be free to decide its own destiny. nato must send an unmistakable message in support of ukraine as well. our alliance has had a partnership with ukraine for more than 20 years. ukrainian forces have served with distinction in the balkans and afghanistan.

in wales, we will meet as alliance with the president to show that our 28 nations are united in support of ukraine's sovereignty and right to de fend its territory. nato needs to make concrete commitments to help ukraine modernize and strengthen its security forces. we have to do more to help other nato partners, including georgia and moldova. strengthen their defenses as well. [applause] we must reaffirm the principles that have always guided our alliance. for countries that meet our standards and that can make meaningful contributions to allied security, the door to nato membership will remain open.

this is a moment of testing. the actions of the separatists in ukraine and russia ought to be consigned to a distant history. men storming buildings, soldiers without flags slipping across the border. violence sending families fleeing and killing thousands, including nearly 300 when that airliner was shot out of the sky. in the face of violence, it seems intractable. it is easy to grow cynical. to give in to the notion that peace and security may be beyond our grasp.

i say to all of you here today, especially the young people, do not give into that cynicism. do not lose the idealism and optimism that is the root of all great change. [applause] don't ever lose the faith that says if we want it and we are willing to work for it and we stand together, the future can be different. tomorrow can be better. after all, the only reason we are here today in a free and democratic estonia is because the estonian people never gave up. you never gave up when the red army came in from the east or when the nazis came in from the west. you never gave up when the soviets came back or when they sent your best and brightest to the gulags, never to return.

you never gave up through a long occupation to try to break your spirit and crush your culture. their tanks were no equal to the moral power of your voices, united in song. their walls were no match for the strength of your people, united in that unbreakable chain. like the hungarians, the czechs, the slovaks, and the east germans on top of that wall, you were stronger and you always believed one day, no matter what, we will win. today, your example, your victory gives hope to people all over the world. yes, there will be setbacks and frustrations, moments of doubt and moments of despair. the currents of history ebb and

flow, but over time, they flow towards freedom. more people in every corner of the earth standing up and reaching to claim those rights that are universal. that is why, in the end, our ideals are stronger and will win. dignity will win because every human being is born equal, with free will and inalienable rights. the government that tries to deny this rights will ultimately fail and countries that uphold them will only grow stronger. justice will win because might does not make right. the only path to lasting peace is when people know their dignity will be respected and their rights will be upheld. citizens, like nations, will never settle for a world where the big are allowed to bully the small.

sooner or later, they fight back. [applause] democracy will win because the government's legitimacy can only come from citizens. because in this age of information and empowerment, people want more control over their lives, not less. because more than any other form of government ever devised, only democracy, rooted in the sanctity of the individual, can deliver real progress. freedom will win, not because it is inevitable, not because it is ordained, but because these basic human yearnings for dignity and justice and democracy do not go away. they can be suppressed, at times

they can be silenced, but they burn in every human heart in a place where no regime can ever reach, a light that no army can every extinguish. extinguish. so long as free peoples summon the confidence and the courage and the will to defend the values we cherish, then freedom will always be stronger and our ideas will always prevail, no matter what. thank you and long live our great alliance. thank you. [applause] >> on the next "washington journal", we will get an update on the nato summit.

there will be a discussion on a book -- "what women really want." "washington journal" is live every day at 7:00 eastern. you can join the conversation on facebook and twitter. here are highlights for this weekend. on c-span, the nebraska supreme court will hear argument on the keystone xl pipeline. communicators,e former fcc commissioners. watch the latest debates. sunday at noon, debates between kay hagan and tom tillis. race in governor's california, jerry brown and neel

kashkari. friday night on c-span2, john yoo. words, mike gonzalez. sunday at noon, a three-hour conversation and phone calls with the former chair of the commission on human rights, mary frances berry. c-span3, a talk on the burning of washington. on saturday, the making of hoover dam. sunday, president gerald ford 's pardon of richard nixon. 26-3400 and let6 us know what you think about the programs we are running.

>> now, a conversation on affordable housing for seniors. we will hear from chris herbert, from the harvard joint center for housing studies. this is 45 minutes. [applause] >> good morning. excited to see so many people here, the day after labor day weekend. we heard some grumbling that no one would come, but this is a testament to the importance of the issue and that people are ready to get back to work. forme thank the hartford their funding of this report and to the aarp team. this is an issue that we need to spend more time on. this grant gave us the opportunity to do that. thank you.

the folks wenk work with most closely at the foundation. they have been instrumental in marshaling this process. been not just funders, but collaborators. they have been instrumental in helping us put together a committee to help shape the report and review drafts. they are named on our website. their employee -- their input was critical. the joint center staff, a number of who are here today. the effort that goes into this is phenomenal. for this report, we underestimated the amount of effort that goes into learning all the issues that intersect housing.iors'

we have been working very hard this summer. i have to give a special thank you to jennifer. she was the manager of this project and is passionate about this issue. blood, sweat, and tears into getting this report to what it is today. if it passes muster, a lot of the credit goes to jennifer. let me turn to the report itself. the motivation of the study begins with the fact that we are at a time of unprecedented growth in the older population. it is growing not just because of long jeopardy, the because of the fact that the -- not just vity,se of longe but because of the baby boom generation. 10 years from now, we will see the 80's population begin to

grow. there is a need to meet the needs of the society. to remain productive members of society. at it, housing is critical to so many elements. we use of the phrase linchpin. i am grateful that you defined it. ofsing is a linchpin well-being. it intersects with so many key issues. one is financial security. housing is the largest item in the household budget. whether it is affordable or not has a lot to say if your financial picture is in good shape. it is a source of financial wealth for many households.

it is an asset people can tap as they age. physical security, whether the home is suitable to your needs as the inevitable challenges of aging arrives -- does it provide you with a safe and secure environment? there are also health issues and how it connects to communities. connections,ocial where you live and what the situation is -- does it facilitate interaction within the community? finally, in terms of linkage to long-term supports and services. housing situation facilitate getting services so we can age in our community and avoid the high cost of institutionalized care? in terms of financial security, older houses face high cost

burdens. more people are retiring with greater mortgage debt, threatening the ability to tap home equity. we will see a shortage of housing with accessibility features. in terms of social connections, deficiencies in terms of the amount of housing available that is well-connected to city centers and town centers and two transit. there is deficiency in transportation and pedestrian infrastructure that make it difficult to make those connections. finally, and linking to long-term services and supports, there are ways the housing system and health-care system do not work well together. housing plays a critical role in making those connections. we are facing a number of

challenges today. we will face more challenges in the future. it is a problem and going to become a bigger problem. there is time to prepare. most challenges will accelerate when the older population begins to grow. that will be a decade from now. their are a number of promising models and ways to address these things. if we are going to build infrastructure, we have to start now. the goal of the report is to raise awareness and understanding of these issues, to provide data to document it and highlight areas where action is needed. most importantly, at the individual and family level. there is a need for individuals to take stock of what is going to be the demand on them as they age and began to take steps now to prepare.

support that is needed to support an aging society. let me turn to the details of the report. full ofe always information. every information is carefully honed. i encourage you to read the report. let me turn to the highlights. the first portion looks at the demographics of an aging america. the key issue is the growth of the older population. this chart shows the population in 15 year increments, common categories you will see throughout the report. retirement into the first year, to 79, and then the oldest, 80 and over. there is a huge run-up in the 50 plus population.

and 2010, the population doubled from 30 million to 60 million. baby boom started to turn 65 and we are starting to see that population grow rapidly. grow tosee that group about 43 million. up to 53 million by 2030. the retirement group that is going to see tremendous growth. one in five americans will be 65 and older by 2030. the oldest old have been growing over time with longevity. we will see the oldest old population growth. that is the group that has tremendous needs for support. but it willg now,

be growing more rapidly a decade from now. this chart illustrates the challenges that grow when you age. risk of disability, isolation, financial stress. we have different categories of disabilities, from cognitive thees with memory and citizen making, self-care, running errands, taking care of finances, and mobility. there is an increase as people go from the 50's and into the early 60's and 70's, and then a huge increase as people hit 80 and plus. withnd three have issues independent living and one in four have issues with mobility. become -- moree than one third live alone, reese

-- raising the risk of isolation. incomes become more constrained. as people age, issues around disability issues, isolation, and financial stress will grow. in terms of disability, age is the great equalizer. what these charts show is, looking at incidents of disability, combining the likelihood of having an issue of hearing, vision, cognitive issues, the likelihood of having one of those issues rises sharply with age. among younger ages, there is some disparity between -- owners are less likely to be disabled. whites and asians are less likely.

age over time takes its toll on all. gets 80's, 70% of households deal with disability. this is not an issue for some demographic slice, it is an issue for all of us. in terms of income, financial pressure converges. this shows median household income with the different age bands for different demographic groups. you can see, there is wide disparity in median incomes. much higher for whites and asians. much higher for homeowners and married couples. the red bars, people in their 80's, the differences largely dissipate. regardless of what your demographic stripe is, have a 0 dollarscome of 20,00

and $25,000. more financial stress across the spectrum. turning to housing and financial security, one of the issues we look at our housing cost burden. this is the share of households spending at least 30% of their income for housing, which is the typical measure of affordability. we refer to severe housing cost burdens as spending more than 50% of income on housing. find a surprising in your findings? in this part of the analysis, it is the one we may spend the most time on, but it is the one that gave me pause. among older households, differences are not significant. their 50's and early 60's, half have housing cost burdens. a little more than a quarter have severe housing cost burdens.

they do rise with age. sharply, but they are high. when we peeled it back and looked at the differences between people who have a mortgage and people who do not, it is not a slice of the data we often look at. if we look at it that way, people who have a mortgage are much more likely to face housing cost burdens. about one third have housing cost burdens, but by that time they age into retirement ages, it rises to 45% and then 60% of those over 80. the issue about managing the mortgage debt while you are still working and trying to get to a situation where you are not facing those costs in retirement is significant. a 53-year-old mortgage holder of a 28 year mortgage, this gave me pause in thinking about what i might need to do in the next

10 years. ownerslook at the home who own their home a clear, it provides a tremendous dividend in avoiding housing cost burdens. it rises with those 80 and over. incomes drop and property tax and insurance can be more overburdened. it is an important dividend that homeowners get. that will be one less likely realized. what are the implications of housing cost burden? we use the consumer expenditure survey and look at the house -- the typical household spends on a monthly basis. we compare those to moderate cost burdens, between 30 and 50% of their income, or severe burdens, spending more than 50%. this is for households in the bottom quartile.

how do they spend their money? the green bars are those who faced no housing cost burdens, can find affordable housing. burden andmoderate read our severe burden. across the age groups, the spending categories that take the biggest hits are the other items that make up the biggest torsion of household monthly expenditures. food is one that is significant. burdensds facing cost spend between 41 percent and 47% less each month on food. there is a clear link on spending and housing -- there's a clear link on spending and housing and whether or not you can get enough nutrition. the differences are between two thirds and three quarters lower spending on transportation, the link between high housing costs

and isolation. in terms of health care, lower spending, about one half to two thirds for those who faced severe cost burdens. if you face housing cost burdens, the trade-offs are in terms of food, health care, and transportation. the other has to do with retirement savings. housing cost burdens today will be reflective of your situation when you retire. your links between whether can get affordable housing and the and all of these other categories. issue, thismortgage chart shows the share of households who are homeowners with mortgage debt and the average amount of that debt over time. looking at the yellow bars for , 65% of back to 1992

those who owned a home had a mortgage. by 2010, it had risen. much more likely to enter retirement years with a mortgage. not only are you more likely to enter retirement with a mortgage, you are more likely to have more debt. if you think back to the cost burden chart, what does that imply about how well people will be able to handle their finances in retirement. this issue about how we manage our mortgage debt going forward will be important. for 50 tosue 64-year-olds is the toll that -- has on homeownership rates. upeownership rates have held well for the oldest households.

80 plus has gone up a bit. the 50 to 64-year-old group has seen homeownership rate fall by five percentage points. that is not likely to be made up in the remaining years before they hit retirement. that group will go into retirement less likely to own a home. 50 to 64-year-old group saw their net wealth fall. groupmmon theme is that and how much they have been suffering from the recession and other issues we have been having, less likely to find a pension plan. as much as we look at the situation of today's older trying to, extrapolate from that group, it is not a pretty picture. in terms of wealth, a lot of figures in terms of the distribution of wealth. the bottom-line is homeowners

have about a quarter million comparedf net wealth to $6,000 for renters. we think about the situation for homeowners and renters as they retire -- a very situation -- a very different situation. ters have very little to draw upon. .ousing wealth is sizable if you look at lower income households, those in the bottom income quartile, housing wealth makes up about three quarters of their wealth. homeownership is an important anchor for a lot of households. that is being weathered away a bit. it will be an important issue t going forward. her older renters, being able to is housing assistance

important. this chart shows the number of elderly households who are very low income, which is a standard determination of eligibility for housing assistance programs. the green portion as a share of the group that managed to get housing assistance that they are eligible for. 2011, 3 .9 at million low income elderly households. about a third were able to get housing assistance. two thirds to not get housing assistance who are eligible for a. of that group, the two thirds to do not get it, 60% are defined as worst-case housing needs. that absence of housing

assistance for that group has important ramifications for how well housed they are. and to give some sense of where the issue is going, remember the recently started turning 65. that group is going to grow by leaps and bounds. on the estimates on what we project to be the number of elderly renters over the next decade or so, we do this by holding current homeownership rates constant. how many more elderly renters in that age group will there be? about thethat imply numbers of elderly households who will be eligible for renter assistance? there are a lot of switches in there. the renter ship rate may be too low. income assumption might be

too generous. on the other hand, it could go the other way. by 2030, there will be 6.4 million very low income renters eligible for rental assistance. the one third share assisted, we would have to have 900 thousand more assisted units for that population. we now have 1.4 million. we have not had that many in a long time. elderly renterny households on their own in the housing market. we see that results in 60% having a worst-case housing need. it is going to be a salient issue over the next few years. turning to the issues of accessibility needs, one of the key issues is how well suited

housing is to meeting the needs of an aging population in terms of accessibility. look at what types of homes older households are living in already. this is the distribution as of 2011. 71% live in single-family detached housing. most is owned or occupied. they do probably have greater ability to modify the home to suit their needs. if you look at the share of living in multifamily, 10 plus, to the extent that multifamily buildings with elevators might have greater accessibility, it is a very small share of the older population. only 9% of older households live in large, multifamily buildings. we think about adapting housing

to meet accessibility needs. we talk about that because this is the population that does not move frequently. as people age, the likelihood of moving becomes much lower. in their 50's, about 4% of the population moves every year. 60's and 70's, it is down to 3%. isy of the older houses where they will likely be living as they age. this chart shows the share of households of the different age groups who have been in their ofes for different periods time. the green bars show the share of living in their home for 20 years or more. those 80 and over, 60% have been in their homes for at least 20 years. 79-year-olds, 47% have been in their homes for 20

years. another 23% have been in their homes for 10 years or more. people are making decisions about housing they will occupy later in their life when they are mostly in their 50's or early 60's. by that time, they are locked in. how can you get people to be aware of the choices they are -- that they should make now for the housing they are going to need when they are 75 and 80? it is not easy. we do not like to picture ourselves in that situation. i was talking to my brother-in-law and he did not do anything to make his house accessible, even though he is 63. he said -- my parents are 90, they are fine. in the process, not the architect, not the builders, pointed out this was an issue they need to be aware of. need toan issue we penetrate people's consciousness. you are making a decision that you will live with a long time.

think about that now. in terms of accessibility features, we looked at the american housing survey. we looked at the main dimensions used in universal design features. and extra-wide hallways, doors to accommodate wheelchairs, no entry, accessible electrical controls. if you look at those dimensions, single floor living is the most common one, followed by accessible electrical controls and in no step entry. the bundle of these, the share of the housing stock that has more than one of these things, it becomes limited.

only 57% of the housing stock has more than one of these features and only 21% has at least three. only 1% has all five. we are talking about the existing housing stock, how accessible it is, there are deficiencies. they vary by region. the northeast has more single-family homes that lack single floor living or no step entry. they do vary by age as well. new housing is more likely to have accessibility features, but even though the slope is upward, it is probably not as steep as it needs to be to make sure he accessibleadd is to the stock. this chart compares the likelihood of living in a home with three accessibility features versus the likelihood

of having a disabled family member. households, about one in five are likely to have a to have a -- likely person with a disability in the home. necessarily the same households, but the odds. to 79. up a bit for 65 by the time you hit the 80's, the disabilities goes up. the likelihood of you living in a house only goes up to 30%. move toove, you will more accessible housing. moves are rare and not enough to offset the rise in disability. a big mismatch between needs for accessibility and what the stock offers. to makeit going to take stock more accessible? metlife has done studies where they estimate what the expense would be for providing the most investments in

the home. some are simple and not expensive. they get more complex and costly as we go up. adding handrails can be done less -- can be done for less than $1000. $1600 to$3200.r ramp, $3200. to $12,000. $3000 costs become more substantial. while some things can be done fairly easily, some things take much more expense. the potential scale of this, consider the fact that in 2011, 10.3 million households 50 and over reported having some difficulty walking or climbing stairs. five .5 million reported living in a house that

requires they climb stairs to enter or exit the house. that 5.5 million, let's say a 10th need to put in a ramp to get into the house. that adds up to $1.3 billion for a ramp. that is a big market. either it is a big opportunity or a big need for subsidies. when you multiply the millions of households facing these issues, you can add up to a big number. how can we pay for this? how are we going to increase stock? there are a number of programs that are potentially being used. one is visibility ordinances. a growing adoption of these over of decades.ple mostly focused on housing being built with public funds, having

mandates to have visibility features, features that we talked about in the early slides. there is an interest in expanding that beyond the publicly funded housing. having mandates or incentives to have new housing have those features would start to add to the stock over time. there are examples of tax incentives. on housing with accessibility features that provide that subsidy mechanism to encourage people to undertake those improvements. there are grants or low-interest loans from federal, state, or local sources. there is a program that has often been used for that. it has come under funding constraints, but it has played a big role in providing grants and loans to homeowners. include thes

potential for medicaid to be able to fund improvements to the home so people can age in place, through ramps, changes to the bathroom, and the like. finally, volunteer assistance. -- imay be an area question whether we can bring it to scale. model like habitat for humanity, where they rely on volunteer assistance to going to the homes of the elderly veterans and disabled households to make those homes accessible and they do that -- in 2013, they modified 4200 homes. it is small scale, but it is the broughtts efforts, if to scale, might go a long way towards helping.

social connection and community support. of people to remain connected with their communities is important, not just for their peace ofl health and mind, but for the community to be able to take advantage of the expertise and volunteer energy and the like that those households bring. there are a number of ways in which the current layout of housing will become a challenge to maintain that social connection as households age. if we look at the distribution householdse 50 plus currently live, it estimates about 25% are in central cities, 50% are in suburban areas. about three quarters of older households live in areas that are not dense, by definition,

and may be constrained in terms of transit options available to them. if we look at the distribution of households by -- this is looking at the share that have no access to cars and do not have transit within a quarter-mile of where they lived. measure, 50's, 60's, 70's, they have good access to transit. by the time you get to be in your 80's, the share of , that level has some deficiency in the ability to connect with transportation opportunities. it becomes more limited, particularly in suburban and rural areas. living within the quarter-mile of transit is not a good measure of whether the transit is useful. a quarter-mile is a long way if you are walking with a walker. you have to get the

quarter-mile, you may have to cross streets that do not have good crossings or sidewalks. when you get to the transit, can you get into the station? does transit take you where you want to go? there are not good measures of how much transit serves the needs of people who have issues with mobility. terms of issues in having a car, and whether or not you have broad use of the car. as people's vision and reflects diminishes, there are ways in which the access to cars overestimates people's real ability to connect with transit. asre is no question that people age into their 80's, they become more isolated in suburban and rural communities, in particular.

one way to enhance connectivity, in terms of services that can theireople remain tied to communities. senior centers are a valuable resource. they provide social activities and other avenues to engage with the community. are anencies on aging important resource i, including meal delivery, home daycare. the service infrastructure needs to be there. also, to deliver services to them in their home. beyond that, a need to encourage broader housing options. to have options within their communities that are close to the centers, close to transit.

moremay be having multifamily housing in places that are adverse to that. allowing other forms othersing, cohousing, groups that may not be allowed by zoning. is going to be a growing need for these opportunities. improving transportation options. there are many ways the mass transit system can be improved to have more accessibility to people. taxi discounts, other options for making more transportation options that will take people from the point to point that they need on an affordable basis. in terms of the pedestrian experience, increasing accessibility of sidewalks, adding lighting and buffers, safer.street crossings

these are helpful in making sure the destinations can be safely traversed. put these things together, we talk about making an age-friendly community. not just for older households, but all households. many things we are talking about work for young people and young families as they do for older families. these are not investments needed just for older folks, they are needed for healthier communities overall. finally, in terms of linking housing and long-term supports and services, as i pointed out, incidents of disability rise with age. people will wrestle with the need to have long-term services and supports to maintain residents in their homes and communities. folks express a preference for that.

it is important because maintaining residence in your home saves society a lot of money in delaying institutionalization before it is needed. this chart shows living arrangements of households with disabilities by age. the slice that is pulled out is the group living in group quarters. that share is fairly low. 5% under the age of 80. 13% of those people 80 and over. the majority of people with disabilities are living in the community. this is a trend that has been increasing over time. the nursing home population has been declining. been more options, like assisted living, providing support in the home, which has all been for the good. one way in which people are able to get -- probably the most important way people are able to get support in their home is

from family members, either spouses or children. two thirds of people getting long-term care in their home are getting it from family members. that is important in terms of keeping people in our homes. only 9% get care from non- family sources only. boomers got married later, had fewer kids. we look at the share of people by age who have -- who do not have any children, people in their 50's, 16% do not have children compared to 6% of those in their early 70's. for those, the generation is now approaching the older age, there will be fewer family caregivers to rely on. of sevenay, the ratio family potential caregivers for every person 80 and over. by 2030, the ratio will be four

to one and by 2050, it will be down to three to one. of us were able to pull together our time and money, but if you look now, we have two kids. if you look at them, you say -- we are in big trouble. i have to mature. they have to get a better job. [laughter] the family care ratio is going to put more pressure on other sources of care. ofs chart estimates the cost providing weekly assistance of different types. adult day care to home health aide, those are assumed at 30 hours a week for a month. $1400 toly cost is $2500 for other types of assistance. 65sing home care is about hundred dollars.

-- $6500. homeowners, how well can they support themselves drawing down the wealth in each of these situations? you can go on for years. medium wealthhe simplest000 for the option, adult day care, they can last about four months. while we have these growing options for care, the cost is high. the support,ave but many do not. renter population is one we need to spend a lot of time thinking about in how we support them. policies and programs to expand affordable housing with long-term support of services, hud has section 202. they are trying to revamp that

and make it more productive by removing capital grants, switching to long-term rental assistance and looking for other sources of funding. partly passing the buck to other sources of development funding. tax housingme credit is one example. about the factk that we have not had a lot of this housing over time, 202 is very old. this is a critical area of support. there are a number of nonprofit models taking existing housing and bringing resources from the health-care system to support them. we have to take advantage of the fact that we have a number of existing developments that have a concentration of older households and help support those models as important resources.

finally, ways in which we can look to enhance their reentry of renters coming back into the community after institutionalization. you arere a renter and institutionalized for a few months and now you come back and try to establish yourself, being able to use other resources to secure that unit, make sure it is accessible to you, and you can get reestablished. in some instances of medicaid, money follows the person, but we wed to think about how facilitate access to the private market of housing as well. that is the run through of the issues. the joint center is often referred to as the joint center for gloom and doom. [laughter] citet up here and we statistics about how awful the situation and it makes you want

to throw up your hands and say "abandon hope, all ye who enter here." there are issues of scale in funding. the other issue is -- while we wrestle with serious issues today, the issues will grow more profound overtime. we have time to prepare. we have to build more of an infrastructure for the support services that are needed. we have models that we can use to build them. we have to start now. said, it will require efforts at all levels of government. we need to expand funding for that. it is going to require efforts from the nonprofit sector. in terms of advocacy role, and making sure the issues are

brought to the floor, it is going to take the private sector. there are tremendous opportunities here. one issue is breaking through the consumer, helping the private sector by breaking through the consumer. when they market their products that are designed for accessibility, they find a more willing kwok -- client. it is going to come back to the individual. down toing to come recognize the issues, taking the steps to prepare themselves, and recognizing the importance of what communities need to do to be prepared. ultimately, the rubber meets the road at the community level. that is where the housing options have to be expanded. bettere need to see pedestrian infrastructures. there is a lot of pressure on a local government. their appreciation for this is important. as a final message, the issue is this is not an isolated problem,

but a problem that will face most communities across the country. this is a map showing counties. 1990. the red areas are places that had 40% of the population that were 50 plus. you can see there are places in florida and arizona and a few in the midwest, pockets here or there, or the population was over 50. many areas are green or the population is less than 25%. fast-forward 20 years, those red areas are growing. florida still has those areas, but they're all across the north, northeast. the green areas are essentially gone. people are going to age in that community where they are now. this is an issue that really has to