and he israntine fine. he wants to go back to jfk and he wants to continue taking care victims. we have several staff who are the same. individuals, u.s. citizens, on their way to liberia now. sending two more in, in about two weeks, to continue to help with this effort. primarily focused right now on the general and public health care but we can rapidly expand. we do evacuations as well. that peterthings highlighted in the beginning was we had an extraordinarily in auguste case early where we had a 24-year-old u.s. an infectedhad shunt in his head. he had an ebola test. tested negative. he needed a neurologist. we didn't have one at the clinic. there wasn't one available, because most of the public facilities had shut down in liberia. to get him out. we couldn't. i had our plane ready.

i had everybody ready. we couldn't secure landing rights in a neighboring country, unfortunately, our patient died. so i have been an outspoken coordinationhe effort, in working with the local neighboring countries and working with the state department and department of defense, to make certain that while we're taking care of the folks in this crisis, that we're also not forgetting about havebody else who may not ebola, who has another urgent case, and making certain that coordinating our effort where we can continue to take care of them and provide for the avenues of success. that, i'm going to leave it open and i think close my role. thank you again very much for today.ere >> thank you. thank you to all our panelists. i'd like to exercise a prerogative and throw out two kind of related questions, and invite any want toof the panel who to comment. recently, in fact in the last 24 we've had a relatively

prominent leader in one denye affected countries refute theor try to worst-case scenario of the cdc spread of the disease. was on one hand. the other side of that is the question of speed of wrapping up up -- our speakers have all the difficulties being overcome, but still the effort is taking time. one hand, stepping back, that happens. on the other hand, we need to move if we're not going to get into the worst case scenario. so if any of our panelists would on the comment, both modeling of the extreme cases, our experts on epidemiology or public health might want to weigh in on why

a valid point, that that was raised in the study, and simply dispensing is probably not the right thing. or also balancing that with the timeliness of response. i'll throw it open to anyone who either on thein, scientific side or implementation side. critical model, the point in the model was the need for rapid action and what the costs are of moving slowly. less important whether the number, the worst case scenario, precisely right. it's a sufficiently concerning, even devastating number, that if even close to that number, it will be an awful outcome. modelers arehe quite correct in their assumption that we need to move quickly and that every day, every week, every month that

an opportunity for the disease to spread in a way that than require us to more redouble our efforts but really not quitethat we're prepared to do right now. >> colonel michael? >> yes. i would just say, addressing the issue of modeling is very difficult, because very small ofnges in a whole variety parameters is a mathematics exercise. a very small change in make a hugecan outcome difference in how one models. at whatook carefully modelers have published, do you range? you have a best and a worst-case scenario. actually week, as you data,al, epidemiologic can't emphasize enough, the ability to track the attack rates, to really understand at thesubnational level where

disease is, how bad it is, is critical, because it allows you the logistics go, where the resources should go. if you're designing a vaccine of is the bestrt balance between where you can logistically do a study and where the attack rate is going to be high enough that you could get the answer most rapidly and a decision then about a public health roll-out of a vaccine. isn't sohe issue to me much the modeling, it's the need hardard logistics and for epidemiology. and you can't separate the two. the last thing i would say, something we have learned from the relatively small amount of epidemiologic data, is actually news story. if this were a respiratory that -- maybehing a disease like sars, those kinds disease, for any one person who has the disease, you can people.p to 17

whenever that number is big, good.ot when that number gets to be less than one, it means the e epidemc way out. that's how vaccine people think. number, for ebola, is around 2. for every person that's infected, that person is usually up to two.fect on average. ofthis should be the kind epidemic that, with the right public health responses, in in basicputting prevention packages as well as effective vaccines and therapies, this should be an epidemic that would be easier to control than others. i think that's an important point. less an issue about any one modeling data but the crying need to have data to best inform the response. >> i would now open up to questions. to wait for the microphones to come to you and then to please identify

yourself. to give theoper first word to his excellency, ambassador of sierra leone. a shortto make contribution, the question one would want to ask is several people have asked that question. thishe w.h.o. prepared for epidemic? that correct to assume w.h.o. is the world body set up to handle these kinds of situations, so the question is, prepared? the answers will vary, but from i've beenw, from what reading, they were not prepared for it. i think about a year or two ago, they had -- their budget was slashed, especially in the area, and there's from of red tape within, thetime -- the moment

epidemic was discovered, the tost thing they did was inform the w.h.o. and we think that they were understaffed. there was a lot of red tape. so maybe there should be a shift here, to get the w.h.o. perhaps this these kinds of emergencies. one would have assumed that they were ready. they didn't have the money to do it. at the time, they started going their various partners, asking them for money. that is just my contribution. >> well, thank you ambassador. the gentleman here in the second row? please identify yourself. >> my name is peter conner. i'm from texas. i'm a national security focus ont with a bioscience. my question is to dr. nelson michael. great deal about

sat next to you your vaccine expert here. but you didn't talk, or i didn't hear in the address by the panel, much about therapies. and i do represent a company a therapy that's over at the fda right now looking for it.mergency exemption for would anybody on the council, or addressael, care to that question about potential therapies? >> the reason i didn't speak to that specifically is because ofs neither my field expertise nor is it anything currently right now that the that i'm associated with is actually doing. do know there have been developments obviously of a wide of therapeutics, to include antibodies. colleague, dr. kennedy, from liberia, is testing just the old-fashioned way of taking plasma from individuals that survive, which is rich in antibodies that might

protective, and giving individuals that, who become ill. are more interesting and novel technologies, interesting aom a standpoint of me as scientist, like rna's. you toy drive some of wikipedia. inhibiters,ecule much like the drugs to treat hiv. -- there's a variety developed.eing this is usually the province of pharmaceutical companies that do anyone.ter than i know there are active efforts along those lines. but, again, just to reiterate i didn't speak to those, because it isn't something that i am directly involved in.

>> can i add one thing? we have limited information about new modalities. but we do know that basic make an enormous difference in survival rates. things like basic hydrating a patient, balancing treatingctrolites and infections as they occur. new englandou to a journal of medicine article, by a physician who just recently the chiefwn as medical officer of the food and drug administration, and he to another outbreak of a deadly disease that occurred in anthrax iny, with 2001. what we carefully shows is that time that at the 90%lation of anthrax had a tall -- fatality ratio.

more likehat rate was 45% because you could do good intensive care. -- in ebola, you need to take diarrheahe terrible that you get. you can't fix potassium unless check the ma magnesium and replete it. things thatmplex intensive care physicians and inses would know about, but stricken areas, these are more difficult. basicyou improve just the clinical care without some of these more novel therapeutics, see the fatality rate drop. intrinsictant for the reasons of protecting human beings. important that we recognize -- if you assume the fatality ratio of anthrax was actually 45% -- if you ended 65% mortality, you

would have thought you were doing a great job, unless you control arm. i think this is important, as we beingbout countermeasures therapeutics or countermeasures that you're doing in otherwise vaccineseople called is. we need to be very careful about forward. we go >> ambassador bob griffin? name is robert griffin. first let me say a word about embassies. embassies are the u.s. platform out there. and we've refocused all of our efforts into three countries. we've relocated families. refocused on our mission. we've become an essential for usa for the cdc and activities and the military. i have to ask, where has

for the last six months? there was no military focus about two weeks ago. it's really johnny come lately, a shame for the policymakers to have neglected earlier on.lved but on sierra leone itself, there's no question that the traumatized. but're scattere -- they're scad also very accepting. collapsing.y is there's no place to go to get a malaria pill. closed.hose things have the internal constraints, there's not food come nothing way it used to, because of roadblocks and other concerns. there's been a massive education effort on the part of the government with its international partners to teach people about ebola, about what to do. don't touch somebody that's sick. don't touch anybody that's dead. all the numbers. get the help.

cases.the and people are really quite immediacyhink, of the of this. and if not, in sierra leone, shutdowna national of -- everybody had to stay home and was visited by health care find out about this. i think the people are getting the message. they've got the message. who started itt and why it started and what was causing it and who was all pretty well faded away. and people understand that this a a terrible disease and it's tragedy that they have to face. and work with. i have confidence in the government of sierra leone and in the organization out there is well-established, doing the right job. the question, though, of course, as you have mentioned, is getting enough people there, doing enough training. money.ot the we've got all the equipment that's coming in. so the question now really is curve.get ahead of the when dr. frieden was out there,

is the to say that this rise of ebola in west africa. liberia is up here on the top of this curve. sierra leone was only about halfway up. time for sierra leone to do the necessary -- to sort of halt that curve. think the international community is bringing those resources into place. from thek that, perspective of the field, and i think that we're getting a better handle on what's going on. that was my comment. sorry. there's not a question. >> thank you. comment, iave one guess. there's no room for complacency. for good news.y but at the first sign of good neudz, it doesn't -- news, it mean we can give up our effort or relent. we pursuetial that this with the same vigor. >> and that provides a good jumping off point for my

question. judeis judith coffman, an independent consultant. i thank all of you for the work you're doing. and for the passion. ms. rogers, you correctly the effect -- the effect this is going to have on the economy. worriede all, i think, also about the impact on already fragile health care systems. and the private sector can't make up the difference. my question particularly to the government people is, what you doing now? how are you thinking? responsible for insuring that this emergency response, is vital -- we can't do without it -- but that it harm todo further existing systems? and in fact, it works to build

better and stronger systems post-ebola. can try. a couple words. there's four primary goals of the u.s. administration in terms efforts on ebola. one of them is trying to blunt effect, the second-order effects, on the economics, on the social fabric of these countries as well as on the political systems. seeing already is -- and you can read it in any an -- absolute collapse in almost every kind of infrastructure that you need to countries.e in these they're bringing in mass food.ties of --ld bank has made enormous commitments to try to stabilize the economies.

it is not nearly enough. we're seeing on the ground, and the ambassador spoke of his experience in sierra leone, is there are tremendous things in the pipeline heading towards this region. gotten there yet. the one thing i wanted to leave everyone with is the sense that, the u.s. government, we believe it's absolutely borders remain open, that ports remain open. i was on the phone with john hoover, our ambassador in sierra leone right now. get toally hard to sierra leone right now. you can't -- it was hard years ago when i was there. hard now.eally it will get harder if the world shuts down to this part of the world. we need to flood this area with people, and with our assistance. the only way to do that is to open.hese channels thank you. >> please. >> yes. ofre have been a couple questions about the military response. i think it's important to therstand that what

department of defense is doing, first of all, is at the request of our civilian agencies. we gottions about when there and the scale we are operating at relates to what asked to do. in, support.o come we respond and we are responding. we are responding with all due speed. joint forcehe command setting up on the ground. doch do have some 200 -- we have some 200 military personnel monrovia. we are engaged in this as intensively as we can be. remarks,said in my this isn't an overnight process. and it's just going to take some get all our personnel and our equipment into place. ofterms of the type response, the dimensions of the response in which we are again responding to the question we just got, usaid, insupport of support of the department of state, in responding to what it

is that we're being asked to do create a kind of -- kind of an interim solution, if you will, so that these other kinds of resources can come in behind up the help to shore infrastructure and the capacity, which is so critical for the long term. >> thank you. i want to thank you, peter, the council, and commendations all around to each of the panelists in their work, obamao the administration. our country was the first to respond and is coordinating the effort. and that is something we should all be very proud of. i think, you know, colonel michael, you talked about fear and how this spreads. accuracy isra important. west africa consists of 16 countries. to say west africa is

everything. there are three countries severely affected, liberia, guinea.eone and two other countries, one or two cases have been reported. 11 others.e which leads to my question. this morning it was reported cnn said a member of congress is requesting that from,s be banned quote/unquote, west africa. and when you talk about economic growth that's taken place on the continent, this is just very unfortunate. so my question to all of you is, i think that isolation in this also beould completely -- it would decimate aree three countries that most significantly impacted. i would like to know your views. thank you. >> i'm actually just going to jump in from a private sector standpoint, because i've been working very closely and my team on the ground, very closely with -- in liberia in particular but also working a bit in sierra

thee and soon guinea, with government of liberia, the ministries of health, the ministries of customs or the agency, i should say, plus our u.s. embassy there, to supply chainur remains open and that we can actually get equipment and supplies into the country. of the casualties, fatality of closing borders, was a patient of ours. know, we take it extraordinarily seriously. it's not just the economy but also lives. you cannot close the borders. you have to increase awareness. that our contact and communication with usaid and and state department has been -- has been very helpful working hande're in hand both on the ground and at headquarters to try to enshush that the lines remain open. of you know some of the training that's going on with health care workers from west

and africa generally is in the united states, in europe. borders, andsing that will have ripple effects in terms of our ability to in thise successfully crisis. i would add to that, the u.s. border --s and cdc,ms and border patrol, have set up protocols to protect visitors. they are refining those every day to make sure we keep have the safe and they ability to stop people who are known to carry disease into the united states. >> we're running short on time. go in reverse order and invite members of the panel, any finallike to make remarks or final comments or observations. >> i would just say, in a remark, thank you for the attention on this. it's been in headlines so it's

hard to avoid it. i would say there are individuals, companies, you know, outside of the international aid, ngo's and government response, who are ready to go. we've not, not been able to our jobs with u.s. doctors, nurses, paramedics. remembermportant to that. it's important to know that we can mobilize we very quickly. and we, i'm saying the big giant are on companies that the ground, outside of just aspen health care. so thank you very much. >> i would just like to thank fillingntic council for an important need for us to have open and transparent discussions are data-driven. so i think that is the ultimate antidote to get away from the distractions of epidemics of fear and concentrate on e

epidemics of infectious diseases. >> likewise, i thank the atlantic council for allowing us to give the audience a better understanding of at least some dimensions of the u.s. how it'st response and interplaying with the private sector response. as you it is important, just said, to increase the level of understanding of what it is changes that the we're -- challenges that we're facing and how it is we're to address ther response. >> thanks also to you and it's been a pleasure to serve on this panel. a couple quick points. first, just personally i've been struck by the heroism of individuals and organizations. i think msf has served as not ast a force on the ground but conscious for the world -- world.nce for the jim kim at the world bank has shown vision and leadership and generosity beyond what any of us could ask. health carentline

workers in the affected shownies have also extraordinary courage. we've seen incredible resiliency from people in the affected countries. a brief comment about the w.h.o. think one of the many lessons learned from this is that with relatively modest investments, we can prepare most countries the world to prevent most epidemics and to manage those that they can't prevent. need to look carefully at moving quickly to do the things that are necessary happen.that thanks. learned a west african saying. when you meet someone on the street, you often say i fall down but i get up. i think our friends in sierra leone will certainly get

afterck themselves up this. but hopefully they'll do it in a way, with the support of all over the world, that minimizes the tragedy there. conclude byto just thanking all the panelists for their valuable time, especially during the spirit of crisis, demands ons so many all of your responsibilities, in the office, from media and others, for taking the time to deliberations, our discussions here. emerging. a theme we were talking about lessons learned. respects, in many can't promise when, scheduling issues, but i think we need to reconvene to talk about some of the longer-term impacts. the united states, under the president andthe others, and the agencies, represents incredible -- incredibly generous in responding. that's what's good about

americans. our idealism,l, but the sustainability, the economic, not just the infrastructure, health care infrastructure, but i think the social fabric of these countries. so i think there's a lot to be there. even the basic government shortfalls. out about ank came week ago with the percentage points, shaving off economic these countries, which means a budget shortfall, strained budgets. it's a vicious cycle and how we can sustain this, not just this in the yearsly ahead. i think that's another conversation. please join me in thanking our panelists. [applause]

[captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2014] [captioning performed by national captioning institute] >> we will have more live programs later the senate,

including a briefing with hagel from the pentagon. we will talk about the bombing campaign in iraq and serious. touring us tonight when we continue our coverage of campaign 2014 with another debates.ore than 100 our debate tonight is the oklahoma governor's race. live at 8:00 eastern on c-span. on c-span2 at 8:00 :00, a nebraska governors debate. live starting at 8:00 eastern on c-span2. the pentagond to briefing with the u.s. and the french defense minister, here is a look at one in our series of schools.on the big 10 today we spoke with the president of penn state.

we continue our series of interviews with university presidents aired this morning, that buses on the campus of penn state in university park in pennsylvania. toying us from the bus is the president, eric barron. good morning, sir. >> good morning. host: what are the greatest challenges you you see when it comes to the topic of higher education? guest: there are a lot of them, no one specific topic. certainly access and affordability is critical. i think we have a challenge today in making sure that students fully utilize the opportunities presented by a campus that really further their success in life.

we have challenges in innovation after years of declining budgets. a lot of different challenges for higher education. host: let's start with the topic of access. how does penn state deal with it? guest: i think there are a lot of good signs that we can be proud of. the number of students at penn state in the first and family students at penn state is growing. our alumni have given us a large number of scholarships to help need-based students. $30 million in the last campaign. well below average for pennsylvania and the nation, student default rates. all those are good signs, but if

you dig a little bit deeper, you see that there are two problems that i think have an enormous impact. one of those is that we have too many students going years five and six and borrowing money to do it. they're not completing as fast as they can. a large number of them are students that are not as well off financially, and what they end up doing is creating this cycle of working too many hours and taking fewer classes, perhaps not doing as well as their talent would allow because they are working. and then they go forward and take more time to graduate. some of them give up. this is the group of people for which i believe we have too many that don't complete, and then years five and six they are borrowing more money because that's what it takes to get that degree if they will complete. i would say the total cost of a

degree, which is, unfortunately, reflective of year five and six and this notion that you can't quite afford it so you don't graduate at the same high rate or you take longer. i think if we can beat back those problems, we will drive down student debt numbers and make our students more successful. when you think about, it a lot of people talk about that tuition increase. what are they doing it? why do they keep increasing tuition? but the biggest increase of all is to go a fifth year and a sixth year and not only pay your tuition and housing, but you're not in the job market. i would say a lot of good stories, but good universities have to dig deeper, and we see that we have specific issues that we will target.

host: as a person who oversees a university, what are some ways you can decrease the numbers that go on to year five and six? guest: there is a lot of things. everything from advising and being able to create a map for a student and if they fall off and miss a course, and that cost them an extra year because it is a prerequisite and not offered the next year, if you knock on their door and say did you do that on purpose? did you realize that will cost you another year if you continue on with that major? there are parts like that, components like that you can address, but also for a need-based student, can we use our campus to give an online

semester scholarship? during the summer you take nine credits and we make sure that student doesn't have to take on debt. a different kind of scholarship, is the way to think about it. and we make up for the fact that they don't take as many credits during the year. i also like the idea of looking at a student and saying, ok, you will work 20 hours a week at a minimum wage job, but we don't want you to work more. you work 20 hours a week and we look at your family contribution and the scholarships and the loans, and if there is a gap, an unmet need, then can we deliver a kind of penn state promise that we will fill that gap. for all the pennsylvania students, additional scholarships on the order of $30 million and we could look every one of the students in the eyes and say don't work more than 20 hours a week.

you will do better in the classroom, finish in four, won't take on extra debt, and we will help you fulfill that college education. my bet is we will watch the graduation rates of the need-based students go up. we will see the loan rates go down. host: we are joined by penn state president eric barron, joining our c-span bus as it travels to big ten universities. can we ask you about that jerry sandusky case? give us a report of what the university is doing in light of what happened?

guest: of course, that was an incredible tragedy, and out of that has come a university that probably has the strongest compliance and ethics program of any university in the country. we don't just look at whether we are following the rules. we look at whether we are doing the right thing. we have put together an incredible team and we've looked over 100 different topics that we felt where we can do improvements and create a greater sense of control, and this is a model institution. i believe especially in the athletics arena of ethics, we will see a lot of universities copy what penn state has done because it is a such fine program. host: as far as specifics, what has the university put into

place to make sure these incidents don't happen again? guest: just as an example, compliance in ethics is outside of athletics. it is not within that chain of command. it is an independent operation, independent authority, and certainly that makes a substantial impact as you might imagine to make sure that you have individuals that feel free and no that they have the backing to do what is right. but there is a dramatically different h.r. system, there is considerably more compliance focus and training associated with all youth programs. it is extremely comprehensive. host: one of the issues was people who passed on information

and what was done with that information. how do you better the system so there is more communication? guest: there is a full page of different ways in which individuals can report, report anonymously, or report to a particular process. it is hard for something to slip to the cracks at this point. host: how much has the university spent on this? guest: i have not added up the amount of money, but it is significant. host: for legal fees for paying settlements, does that come out of the general budget or student tuition? where does it come from? guest: some portion of it is covered by insurance and some

portion is covered by athletics. my predecessor made a promise that there would be no tuition dollars in there. host: president eric barron of penn state joining us to talk about issues of academics and education as part of c-span's big ten college tour. you are on with president barron bob. caller: thanks for taking my call. i am a grandparent, and i am concerned about my grandkids. i recently was laid off from my job. i'm 63 years old, but i was trying to get some help with re-education. i was focused on one thing.

gunsmithing, actually, and the only way i was going to get it was they wanted me to take in a bunch of fill-in courses to get so many credits. one of them was literature, which has nothing to do with gunsmithing. it seems like they are just trying to sell a lot of extra courses. if a person is focused on something that -- maybe a machine shop or something like that, it is a waste for them to have to spend time and money on courses like literature that they are never going to use. host: president barron, go ahead. guest: well, of course, the education of any university has a particular stamp from the faculty that suggests that if you have a degree from our institution, you have a breadth of critical thinking and communication skills and

understanding of a broad number of issues and that not only do you have depth, but you have breadth. one of the wonderful things about penn state is that we have multiple entry points that allow individuals to be successful. your at home, you're not mobile. you're in a career, you have opportunities through the world campus. you're residential in the state of pennsylvania and would like to live at home. we have commonwealth campuses with lower tuition on the border of $8,000 per year less. you are interested in a particular area it is more

technical, there is penn college. the penn college education is considerably more focused. you should seek out those opportunities to make sure that your interests and your objectives match the particular programs. obviously, a penn state degree signals to everybody a certain scope of activity, a certain depth of activity. i would encourage you to look on programs that focus on high school with a more particular skill set that you're interested in. caller: i would like to hear your comments on the fact that professors generally get paid more if they are good researchers or good writers as opposed to being good teachers. i found that some of the best teachers i have are at the bottom of the department heads

and don't do as much research or publishing as some of the teachers who spend less time with students. is that going to change? guest: i would say that this was true in many universities, may be true in some universities today, but true in many universities that were major research universities. if you go back quite a while in time. but today, teaching skills are highly valued, you don't get tenure and you don't get promoted if you're not good in the classroom and you're not interacting well with students. in fact, we have moved from a model where we made a decision, this person was a great researcher, we are going to

reward that individual to one in which we want it all for you to get tenure and promotion. at the same time, we are recognizing that we need to take advantage of the strengths and skills of different individuals. you're watching a lot of universities move to a point where they have faculty that are what i would call mission faculty. they are superb teachers and we put them in the classroom and their function and job description is to be in that classroom and be superb teachers. they may even be writing proposals on how to improve the delivery of the curriculum, and other faculty that are more oriented toward research. i think what you discover is probably that the individuals who do it all are the ones who

will be more highly paid. host: your chance to talk with penn state's president, eric barron. from new york, here is frank. caller: what is the average salary of a professor? and what is the salary of the head coach of your football team? those weren't available online. guest: here is the way to look at it. we are driven by the market. very clearly driven by the market. we benchmark against a set of universities that -- really solid, top-quality universities. we work hard to have our faculty salaries be competitive in that marketplace.

similarly, having a strong athletic program, we work within the market. so it is true that we have a football coach that makes millions and faculty that make quite a bit less. if you think about it, we could do all this very differently, for a fact. but it is difficult to operate outside the marketplace. we know that our football program is paying for largely all the other sports. penn state is an institution that once all the gifts of all of our students to be something that they can hone and take advantage of and excel in as long as they are also a student. we have 31 sports, and yet we are one of those few programs out there for which no to wish

and dollar, no university dollar crosses into athletics. of course that program is important to us and it is important that it is successful and we are competing in the marketplace for talent. we work very hard to compete in the marketplace for faculty. i would like it to be different but i don't think you can operate outside the marketplace in today's higher education, not for faculty, staff, or athletics. caller: i would just like to make this comment. i think it is a scandal that the ncaa gave most of the privileges back to penn state in light of the sandusky scandal. what kind of message does that send? you do something and they penalize -- you should have to go through that and finish that penalty. you act up, you get a punishment, and then maybe we

will let you off. that sends a horrible message to college students and a horrible message to other universities that may engage in inappropriate behavior, but then get slap down the line and get rewarded. guest: you know, sandusky was a sick man. he fooled a lot of people. that is rather sad. the ncaa stepped out of their process in creating penalties for penn state. a lot of people are uncomfortable that they stepped out of their process to do that. personally, i think that no matter what the ncaa did penn state would have stepped up and looked that it would never happen again. i don't think anybody needed to tell us. we would put in those efforts on

compliance and we would have put in those efforts on a stronger ethical background. so what the ncaa is saying, and it is really the presidents that make up the ncaa -- what they are saying is that penn state as an institution has done so many remarkable things to handle this problem that they shouldn't punish our students any further. if you look carefully, they didn't give us back the money penalties that were there. what they did was say why are we punishing a student athlete? why are we making sure a student can't have a scholarship when we have one of the highest graduation rates of football players? let's not punish those students, especially when you see what penn state has done. so the penalties they removed

were the penalties that punished students and student athletes. that is what they ended. in my view that is entirely is entirely appropriate, primarily on many fronts we are a model program and leading the way. it is not because in my view that they realized that something happened and now what happened is less significant, i don't believe that is the way they are thinking at all. they're looking at it and saying ok, we stepped out of our process, this was a national national issue, penn state stepped in there and did more than the right thing. like i said, we would have done it anyway. i'm convinced we would have done every single one of those things anyway because we don't want something like that to happen. host: from pennsylvania, an educator.

caller: i am not the educator, my son is. i'm sorry, i forgot your name, but congratulations on your position since you just started, i would like to congratulate you as a penn state alumni -- even with a hiatus at another school, has come up the ranks. because of that you have more of a vested interest in what the school is about. i would just like to say that a lack of attention to this campus because of its geographical distance from a campus has resulted in some things that need attention. i will leave it there, and if i through your office i would appreciate that very much.

guest: i'm not sure that i -- i wonder if you could help me with the question. i wasn't sure i quite heard it. host: he talked a little bit about the geographical distance between the main campus and and other campuses. that may be unique to your university and how you deal with those issues. guest: it is. we have 24 locations. a medical school and two law schools. a penn college that is more technically oriented, and the and him and him university park in the center of the state. a lot of people look at this and say this is unusual, how does that function? what i look at is, one, an opportunity to provide a lower-cost education to many students. 40% of the students in the commonwealth campuses are first and him in their family to go to

and him college. there are largely living at home and having access to an and him education from a university that is in the top 1% of all universities in the world. this is a wonderful opportunity. that they also have a much closer connection to their community, which is also incredibly valuable when you think about student career student career success as an objective. so yes there are some distance issues, and they are making sure that when you take an english class, it is exceptional the matter where you take it. but i think the distance issues are less significant to us because what we believe is we are truly delivering opportunity to a huge number of students. think about that number, 40% of students have been first in her family to go to college. then you realize that penn state

you is truly fulfilling its mission. a caller: i have a question about student loans. specifically, the fact that you are bankruptcy protections are removed uniquely from student loans and no other type of loans , a very large problem you for graduation for a lot of people. i don't know if it is ironic or troubling, but the association of financial aid administrators typically lobbies against the students on this topic, either sideways or against, and i find that disconcerting. you have any thoughts on that? guest: i don't know about that particular lobbying effort that

you are talking about, and obviously we are paying attention to the rules. this is the way i look at it. we need to drive these numbers down. if i take the 2007 entering class, they now know what they have borrowed in years five and six, those students borrowed $23 million to go to years five and six. you can see their loan rates going up and some people disappearing. we can save an enormous amount of money if we can get those students to graduate in four years or less. they are in the job market and being successful and we actually drive those numbers down. if you think of all the different ways in which we can enable a student to not fall off

the map, to make sure they have courses in order, to advantaged students, with the world campus to be taking classes out of high school and come in with the credits that allow them to go through the system more quickly, there is some evidence that if add financial literacy to part of the training to the students and they have a sense of what they might paying per month when they graduate, that they borrow less because some of that borrowing is because they are working on a particular style of living that they want to have, and when they look at the future and go, that is not worth it to me. i would rather have another roommate. these are things that universities have to do. it is time they pay attention to them and look at this as an opportunity to drive down the

amount of borrowing that students are doing. especially what loan policies are and attempt to help our students to not have to pay too high an interest. the thing we have the most control over is taking on the objective of driving down student debt, primarily by getting them to graduate earlier. host: eric barron on the c-span bus as it continues its tour of big ten universities. caller: i'm calling about 10 -- penn state. i am a senior citizen now, but years ago my son had the opportunity to attend the great college and some unfairness occurred, and he went to ask for help and they could not help him. as a result, my son left penn state walking because his life was threatened.

that's why i was calling. thank you, bye. host: president barron, go ahead. guest: i'm not sure what i can add to that. it is so difficult in individual student cases to know exactly what the situation is. i don't think it makes sense for me. host: do students have some type of advocate on campus to help them with issues they may have? guest: yes, there is a huge focus on helping students with financial aid scholarships, work-study, and we basically have 75% of our students that

get some form of financial aid. a very active office working very hard to help people be successful. the caller was calling from georgia, and of course this is out-of-state tuition and that makes it more challenging to meet that unmet need. caller: i would like to ask president barron about the deteriorating conditions for teaching faculty. there has been a dramatic explosion in the past 20 years of administrators and their staff, while faculty rates of increase have not kept up and now among the faculty, but 70% nationwide of classes are taught by adjunct faculty and they are underpaid tremendously. sometimes living at the poverty level. what do you think about that situation?

guest: there are a lot of different models out there. unfortunately the recession sent a lot of universities into a mode where they didn't want to commit long term to faculty. and so they hired people part-time to fill classes because if they received one more budget cut, then it didn't make the base faculty vulnerable and they were more capable of managing the budget. this is probably the saddest story for higher education, is that the long-term impact that the recession and cuts in the state support have at many institutions altered the composition of the faculty purely as a budget reality. i will say that at penn state the student faculty ratio is

17 to 1. this is a very competitive rate and we work hard to deliver in the classroom, and as i said earlier, we work hard to be competitive in salaries. this is a university that, you know, is between number eight of all publics and 14 of all publics and it moves a little bit in individual years, but we are really aspiring to make sure that a student that graduates from penn state has an exceptional educational experience and is successful in the world. this is one of the reasons why business magazines always list us as one of the top places to recruit. we just had a job career fair, and we had over 500 companies at

the job fair and more than 9000 students participating. this is our objective. we are not going to sacrifice that quality that we know helps make our graduates successful for the rest of their life. by chuckd for remarks hagel and foreign defense minister jean-yves le drian . i just -- sounds like it is working. good afternoon. good afternoon, everybody. i appreciate the opportunity to welcome my friend and counterpart, the defense minister from france, defense minister jean-yves le drian, who i have had the opportunity to

work with over the last year and a half dealing with many issues in many locations, and he is no stranger to the pentagon, been here a number of times. i appreciate him taking some time today to join us. we have a strong partnership, friendship, the french people, -- the american people french people, the american people, our two nations, and these history bonds were reflected once again in our meeting today. we covered a very full range of issues, a range of security challenges confronting both our countries. and we reaffirm our shared resolve to address these challenges together. on the threat of violence extreme in his -- extremism, i thank him for his leading role in the international coalition to destroy isil.

france was the first coalition nation to join the united states in conducting airstrikes against isil in iraq. iraqiare enabling the security forces and the kurdish security forces to take the offensive against isil. american and french forces will continue to work side by side to -- iraqi forces on the ground as french aircraft patrols the skies over iraq and provide surveillance on isil targets. kingdomme the united and other nations participating in these efforts. the minister and i discussed how we can continue to build our coalition, strengthen our coalition, and support the new government of iraq. i appreciated his insight from his recent trip to baghdad. the united states and france

recognize the grave threat that isil poses to our shared interests and our citizens. the recent murder of a french hostage in our jury a was another -- in algeria was a stark reminder of the deadly threats that isil presents. our discussion today also focus on security challenges in north and west africa where we face surges of violent extremism, instability, and deadly infectious disease. france's leadership in confronting extremist threats in particularly important as the united states continues to provide support and french operations in mali, including airlift, refueling, and intelligence cooperation, as we have done since early last year. i updated the minister on the u.s. government's response to the ebola crisis and the u.s. military's operations in liberia in support of this overwhelming

effort. of the french military assists its government's responses to it all in guinea, we agreed to coordinate efforts across the region. the minister and i discussed the itsation in ukraine, and impact on european security. following our discussions at the nato summit in wales, we agreed on the importance of reinforcing nato allies in eastern europe and strengthening the readiness and capabilities of the nato alliance, a strong and united nato will become deeply important to assuring a europe at peace.e, and that goal remains a cornerstone of america's approach to global and transatlantic security. i want to thank the minister for his leadership and for his friendship. forward to

working together to strengthen this special alliance. thank you for a much, minister le drian. >> merci. thank you. first of all for the kind words alsoyou gave for me and for your invitation here in washington in order to talk about the different facets of the cooperation between both our countries. pasturth visit in the since i had became minister on may 12, we also saw each other in other places. chuck mentioned the nato summit in wales. we also saw each other not long ago in normandy for the anniversary of the normandy landings. i came here several times to

timechuck hagel, and every we have had complicity in our analysis, and we understand each other as to the fundamentals. i wanted to underline that. him.s been recalled by during these talks today, we , in thed the sahel heart of africa. terrorist groups, jihadists are threats for the security of .he state and for europe and in this area, the cooperation between africans, americans, and the french people is the determining factor in order to keep maintaining pressure on a group which is in

b, that keep on trying on past actions. in the intervention of france has managed to push them back. wider systems, a wider positioning since august. it is called operation -- around five african countries have allowed us to contain and prevent terrorist attempts. i would like to thank the united states of america for their support in our actions in ,his area, both, as you said thanks to the exchange of

intelligence, financial support, and the sharing of different capacities, and we agreed that this cooperation is going to go on. region, i toldl chuck hagel how worried france is about the situation in libya. groups are getting , are not organized, and they pursue all kinds of traffic that the international community is going to face the problem and so this deployment must stop because it favors recruitment and the development of terrorism -- i told chuck hagel that my concern and the concern of france is the risk of a

connection of a network and because -- between all these different terrorist groups that are acting all over the area, from nigeria to the middle east, thise have to prevent networking. finally, of course we mentioned the situation in iraq and in syria. france is facing its responsibilities in the indispensable fight against isil. france is an active partner in the international coalition. our armed forces are busy in the theater of operation to support arak and the kurds -- to support iraq and the kurds against isil. since september 15, the french

air force has been carrying out strikes in the framework of the coalition to support iraqi , fors and kurdish forces intelligence and the distraction of certain targets. the president of france has decided yesterday in the defense isncil districting positioning with three more fighter planes and with more intelligence assets, especially the sending of a french frigate in the area. in thisld chuck hagel terrorist struggle we must together think about the long long term,hat in the france will keep all its place. >> we can start the two questions.

thank you very much for the question. so far two rounds of strikes by the french air force. [indiscernible] of vetoed by the u.s. chain command. can you confirm that? french]g in intelligence allowed american strikes in al eppo. you confirm this. has french intelligence been used by the united states? >> thank you. we coordinate, the united states and france, all of our strikes, and the specifics of those

coordinating dimensions, i do not know the specifics of any of them. -- but be assured that the focus, the objective of those strikes is to be effective against isil. and we work together. that means we share intelligence, we share all of our assets, our focus of this assets to make sure those strikes are effective, and that includes the best intelligence we can share on targets. thank you to the questions about the attack on -- it is true, we have an excellent cooperation in the field of , and goodce cooperation means also that we do not give third parties and

even great journalists, any details about our intelligence. this is part of our trust. as to the veto of strikes, no, excellent cooperation, and it is very transparent as well. mr. secretary, so far france has purchase abated actively in strike in syria. it has come up in the conversation, and considering the islamic state's -- this is ration is desperate in anbar, do need assistance from france and other allies to beef up the campaign against the islamic state because things are not moving as rapidly as maybe you might have thought? minister, do you

expect that france will decide inparticipate more actively airstrikes in syria, or do you rule that out completely? your first question, yes, we possibilities of france's involvement in syria, and i think the minister noted that in his remarks. l's threats to all of us do withinide just certain boundaries of certain countries, so it was an issue we discussed. as to your second question, i would go back to what the president said and what i have

said, what chairman dempsey and others, this effort against isil, with our coalition partners, both in syria and iraq, is going to be difficult, and it is going to be long. misconceptionsno when we started this that there would be any quick finish. so the strikes have been effective. we know they are being effective. continue to be effective. as the president said, as i said, this is an enduring, long, difficultult for -- effort. the questions that you asked me from the outside, we at the beginning of this coalition. it has just started being formed. it is acting, but it is just

being formed. we are in a long-term process. intervenes with the support of the authorities of iraq, which requested it. charter,1 of the u n and france is there because of that request. and we are in the coalition because of that request. and we are sharing tasks. a question to chuck hagel and to our minister. internationalthe -- intervention in iraq would take a long time. takeraqi army is going to training how long?

second question, do you share the fear of the french minister of the networking of that connection between the itrorists in sahel and the -- and the middle east, and if yes, what practical consequences can you draw from that, both of you? >> thank you. as to your question of how long, i do not know how long. we have said that we are in the process -- the minister noted, as putting together an effective coalition to strike at isil in iraq, over 40 nations. all 40 nations will be participating in some way. again this is not easy. it is difficult. but we have every confidence

that we will degrade and destroy the capabilities of isil. onto your second question the interconnection of terrorists, whether they are in north africa or the middle east, extremists, terrorists of any always share a certain common dimension of their effort. there to build or --ourage or two make a bit they are not there to build or encourage or to make a better world. they are to tear down and destroy and relies and kill innocent -- and brutalize and kill innocent people. in many respects, you cannot disconnect what is going on in north africa with the middle east. there are many dimensions to

terrorist groups. many are affiliated with al qaeda. there are independent offshoots from al qaeda. brutal share the same objectives. no, you cannot discount that reality. >> as to the question of the links between different groups, very often i draw the attention to this particular point. on, a new angle from now because of the very attractive isil, -- attractivity of 10,000 foreign fighters today

within isil, and they come from france, belgium, but also from a occo,, -- from mor saudi arabia, and other countries. there is a capacity for growth and spreading it, which is obvious. second remark i wanted to make noted point is we have states are very propitious to the growth of this terrorism. discoveredhirdly, we ty of the borders brings about more dangerous. , andon the military side of course, without neglecting

any theater of operation, we have to prevent and finally, we have to support countries so that they are stronger and we have to defend borders. andthis is a global focus, as an international community, which has to take into account the globality of what is at stake. >> mr. secretary, do you have a reaction to turkey [indiscernible] and does the u.s. consider creating a buffer zone in syria that would protect the kurdish population? youou, mr. minister, would discussion did you discuss today with mr. hagel the plant sale of lunch -- the planned sale of

french ships to russia? if the french government is not going to cancel that sale, what else is the french government want to do to penalize russia for its actions in ukraine? regarding questions the turkish parliament's vote today, we view that as a very positive development. we appreciate the parliament's overwhelming vote. we will continue to consult with the turkish government on the specifics of how the implementation of that party would be carried out, and we welcome it very much. as to the buffer zone, we are not currently planning any such development.

as i said last week, we continue to talk with the turkish government about many options, but there are no plans for that option right now. thank you. questions that i of asked about the delivery command ships, which are being shipyard, thisch delivery should take place to russia, which is the client of the shipyard. the decision will be taken at the time of delivery. that is when it was supposed to be taken, and that should be at the end of october, beginning of november. the french president in september announced that if the question had been asked then,

the conditions were not such that it could allow this delivery. and he mentioned two elements for the conditions. cease-fire, and on the other hand, the start of a serious political process. and when looking at both conditions that he is going to make a decision at that time. >> thank you very much, everybody. >> tonight, we continue our coverage of campaign 2014 with another debate -- one of more than 100 debates we will be bringing you this campaign season. our focus tonight will be of the oklahoma governor's race.

that's live at 8:00 eastern here on c-span will stop on c-span2 at 8:00 -- we have the candidate to be nebraska prospect governor. that is live starting at 8:00 eastern on our companion network, c-span2. >> this weekend on the c-span networks -- friday night at 10:00 eastern, a conversation with retired supreme court justice john paul stevens will stop them the founder and former chair of microsoft, bill gates, on the ebola virus out reagan west africa. sunday evening at 8:00, the director of the national museum of african art stop friday night at 8:00 on c-span2, a discussion about war and the constitution. that is on book tv's "afterwards." live sunday at

editor'segal affairs in charge at reuters and supreme court -- supreme court biographer. , historians and authors talk about world war i on hundred years later. on saturday at 5 p.m., f ei agents on capturing the uniform or suspect. on "american artifacts" -- the 100th anniversary of the panama canal. find the television schedule at c-span.org will stop let us know about the programs you are watching. you can call us, e-mail us, or send us a tweet. join the c-span conversation, like us on phase look, follow us on twitter. a 60% chances have of taking over the senate in the upcoming elections will stop that is according to pollster charlie cook will stop today, the national journal posted

former pollsters or election preview. this is 90 minutes. [applause] >> thank you. i'm still waiting for my free helicopter. in montgomery county, maryland, i doubt you can lay anyone anywhere. the peoples republic of the gum or a county. thank you for coming out. we've got a great, great crowd and i'm looking forward to this because i'm tired of listening to myself. i guess between the two of them, for close to 70 years -- neil and i go back 30 odd years. i have enjoyed

being with and love watching their work. pros and tworeat great people. nutshell of where i am and then i want to get neil and stan and talk about what they are seeing out there. to the early part of last year, there were two competing scenarios -- two competing theories of what the 2014 midterm elections could be about. one theory was some of the challenges facing the republican party in 2012 which flow into 2014 will stop the other was it would be a classic midterm election referendum on the incumbent president and all that entails. and itpeting directions could have gone either way.

in terms of challenges facing the republican arty, some of them were with key voting groups and some of it was their own, some of the things they were doing. the challenge of minority voters. got to governor romney 29% of the white vote. nobody's ever gotten 59% of the white vote and lost presidential election before and quite simply what was happening is the country is changing so much and the vote for congress was almost identical. if you are losing the african-american vote by 87 points and latino both by a 44 point margin, they don't generate enough light voters -- how well can you do in order to win if given the changing demographics of the country? the vote for congress was virtually identical.

big demographic challenge the republican party is going to have to face. losing 18 to 29-year-olds by a 23 point margin, that's a challenge. even your best group is winning by 12 lanes, this is a trend that has to be ominous for republicans down the way. i just turned 60 last year, so i look at voters under 45, under 40, they are the future. i look at the mirror and look at those roughly our age, we are like the pre-dead. republicans are doing really well with the pre-dead and not so well with the future. and dice it,slice there are some specific challenges that are rubble met at or republicans in 2012 and

could have been in 2014. then there was one other thing that plagued republicans in 2010 a pattern may develop in those two elections of nominating exotic and potentially problematic equal. unique ability to seize defeat from the jaws of victory. but indiana,ames, missouri, delaware, colorado -- some interesting people. war republicans going to nominate again some of these people that would have a chance the jaws ofeat from victory? these are real challenges facing the republican party.

on the other hand, one arm and term elections about? it's a referendum on the come in president will stop occasionally, there's an exception to the rule. 's election turned out to be a backlash against impeachment. reverberationhe from 9/11 occurring. as my friend stu rothenberg likes to point out, the party of the white house has lost elections in all elections since the civil war. not going to go through any poll numbers because we've got two of the best pollsters in the business coming up, but to me, my view is what we are seeing is the challenges that face the republican party and kept him

from picking up the three seats they needed at the time to get a majority in the senate and two the the presidential race, challenges were real and really hurt and they may be real and really hurt and 2016. but in the context of this election, they seem somewhat smaller. they don't seem to be the deal breakers that they were and 2012. back to a year and half ago, what's the worst-case scenario you could have. that could be a president with really low approval numbers in the low to mid 40's with disapproval and the low to mid 50's. lousy approval ratings on the economy, handling foreign policy, think of the wall street -- neil's from is

the republican half of that approved, 54was 40 disapproved, so your -14 overall. the real kicker was ensuring a strong national defense -- 32 approved, 62 disapproved. that is earth shattering. -- look at that and say well i'm going to use a technical political science term -- it's a hummer environment for democrats. in terms of what happens -- everyone knows we've got a room full of prose year and everyone knows not much is going to happen in the house. be asatic losses could few as two or three and could he 12 ifny as nine, 10, republicans it 13.

that's just a bit above the range of the likely out comes. 300 words or less, the way i look at it, it's like a perfect storm of factors coming together. it is exposure, just the raw numbers. first factor and the least important. the bigger one is the map. it's awful for democrats. when you have seven seat up in states romney carried and only ae republican seat up in republican state and that's susan collins of maine -- she could lose that if she tried. were wone seven seats by 14 points or more. state where romney

won by 14 points and i will show you a 2014 i would not want to be a democrat running for front -- running for federal office. it just is what it is. turnouts tendon to be better for republicans. the presidential year, the turnout is big, rod and it looks like the country. turnoutelections, the is 70% of a presidential turnout. it maller, more conservative, more republican. unless you have a situation like 2006 where you have an popular war in iraq and hurricane katrina, unless you have something like that, you have a turnout dynamic that will favor republicans. say thoset those and .re big atmospheric conditions

when i do the math real quick -- maybe i should stall time just a little bit. math, i'm putting it at a 60% chance of republicans getting a majority. i've been there for three or four months. i was higher than most people and if you look at the models, the lower percentage than most computer models out there if you follow those things -- i would put it at 60% of the there are three seats that will clearly go republican -- 110, south dakota, west virginia. theoretically, republicans are halfway. otherou get to the three

democratic seats where romney carried by 14 points. mark begich in alaska, mary landrieu in louisiana. reallyre really, challenging, difficult and at ,east a little in each one uphill raises in each one. could one of them survive? sure. and if himbout it and it is a huge if. if republicans don't lose one of ifir own seats, like kansas, they don't lose one of their own seats, all republicans have to , louisiana,ginia arkansas, game, set, match. survive, these three any one of them survives him and that means republicans have to one purpleleast

swing state or light lose state. or, conversely, if any public vulnerable seats lose and mitch mcconnell was in a dead even race for a long time and now he has picked up a little bit over allison grimes, he is not safe. little daylight between them and it looks to be stable. from my vantage point, it looks to be stable. democrat michelle dunn was ahead for a good while and now you've and david perdue pull-up you can see daylight. seems reasonably stable. i think you would have to give republicans the edge there. kansas is the one that i've almost stopped speculating about because it's like a race from oz. it is so dam weird.

you look at the experience, i've been doing this for 30 years and you say i'm based on past experience where we'd seen things like this, what has happened in the past? nothing has happened like this -- it's a unique thing -- the democrat has dropped out -- the incumbent is well-liked, but has been mailing it in for the last couple of years. it won the primary and then went home to take a nap and home to alexandria and urging you. say this disaster could have been avoided. this is actually neil's home state. there's only two things we are sure about.

there's going to be an election on november 4 and pat roberts wins, he will sit with republicans. that is the for what we know. if he wins,lse -- does he decide to sit with democrats and the down, you look and say this guy looks, sounds, walks and talks like a democrat -- i think that's where his heart is. but on the other end, he's said things that says he would sing just he would do what is in the best interest of the state will stop is going to sit with them or if he is the tiebreaker, i think his heart is more democrat , but he's a relatively young guy and might want to run for reelection. sitting with republicans might be a better idea. against the backdrop of a civil war taking place within the republican party -- brownback to be

five points behind in a state that is genetically republican. it's one of the weirder things i have ever seen. but for the sake of math, let's just say roberts loses. begich or landrieu survive, they need a purple or light blue state. if each of those things happen, democrats need to pick up to. there are five of them we are looking at where there are possibilities in this purple swing or light live and to i think are absolutely closest -- mark udall and colorado and bruce braley in iowa will stop these races are even, but if one side or the other has momentum right now, just a little bit of momentum, who would you say?

i would have to say republicans in both of those cases. it's not a prediction, they look decent for republicans. north carolina with kay hagan -- to use a phrase i've used before, she's got small but lead overee stable a state senate that when a bridge too far. it has hurt the guy. it might really cost him the election. michigan, very close. theould appear gary peters, democrat has a very small but i would sayof the organized labor is doing much

more effectively in michigan. i would put a finger on the scale and finally, jeanne shaheen, there are some conflicting calls with most showing her head by half a dozen points. there may be some closure there, but i still think she has a measurable advantage. if republicans need one, it needs to be iowa or colorado. if they simply get republican states voting republican, they don't need to win any swing states or, if they lose both, they need to win two out of the purple or green categories.

i've rooted at 60%. stu rothenberg -- he's sticking with his production of seven one last thing and then we will bring up neil and stand. sometimes, people ask me why the heck do we need to listen to charlie cook or his team? themo we need to listen to or stu rothenberg or his terrific colleague if we've got "new yorkr and the times" and these other models that are out there full my analogy is the money ball inlogy -- there's not a team major league baseball it doesn't employ a team of statisticians. they all see it as important.

what they found, the optimal approach is look at the data, analyze the data, but listen to the scouts. sit in the bleachers with a speed gun. interviewing candidates and watching the in jennifer's office, watching ads hours on thesed evaluating each of qualitativective, -- there's value and all of those things. if i was going to look at two would watch nate silver -- i have a lot of respect ornate allsop i think he's smart and he's got a neat statistical toolkit and i think he is intellectually honest. it's a different approach from what i take what i think it is worth looking at.

the new york times i think actually does a good job. they had to scramble to put something together after nate left but it's worth looking at. i'm not a huge fan of the post version and i'm not sure why a princeton biologist is doing molecular models. anyway -- that's where i am on it. in two like to bring people who go through mountains and mountains of data and have the experience and intuition with stan greenberg. does wheres firm they are doing some incredibly high quality both in terms of national surveys and surveys of district, it's unlike anything else out there

and it is just in are mostly invaluable. neil is one of the best around. firms represent enormously high quality work. and ire really percent of want to bring them up and someully we can glean things and i'm not going to put either of them on the spot to throw any of their clients under the bus. just let them tell us what they think. if you guys want to come up. [applause] >> do you want to be in the middle? >> wherever.

>> who wants to go first? >> i will let neil go. projections are seven. let me start with some of what charlie talked about. charlie is exactly right. the present -- the environment is set by president obama possible rating. he is about 10 to 12 points lower than he was when he beat mitt romney in 2012. take that 10 or 12 points and apply it to these states that are red states that are up for grabs right now and if the president one that with 50% of the vote, he could be at 38% job

approval which is an incredibly difficult climb for the democratic candidate. louisiana --te, >> democrats are the same way. landrieu is in deep trouble there. obama'syou think approval rating is among white voters in louisiana? expectnot sure, but i there is a two in front of it. >> 15%. i've been unemployed for a long time now. we are looking at numbers we have never seen before. along these figures -- the job approval of congress.

the job approval rating at error was margin of 5%. i talk about congress in terms of the friends and family program because only friends and family approve of the job congress is doing. is anvironment itself strong anti-incumbent environment. what you did not get into is the sense from voters that washing and has let them down and we cannot fix this country until we fix washington, d.c., our politics and politicians. that's why we've seen turnover after turnover and there's a frustration and anger. it used to be that voters hated congress but love their congressman. how they hate congress and don't trust their congressman will stop there's a sense that member of congress has to prove him or herself again every year.

there is an anger with washington's in action and dysfunction. creating a political environment that is extraordinarily negative toward both parties, not just party in power. my second point is don't kid yourself. it is very similar to the 2012 it was only eight states that were competitive. this was the same model and this advantagecrats an because they can focus their resources on the minimal number of state. voter since labor day, iowa has been the most advertised state per capita in the country. there have been 147 ads per

capita some labor day. on september 23 -- just take one day -- on september 23 in des moines, iowa, there were 325 political ads on tv and one day. 325. ifst of all, god bless you you are in iowa, north carolina, michigan or colorado or kentucky and you are being besieged with all of this advertising. i'm sure you can't wait for the election to the over. but this is not a national election and there's not really a national thematic running through this election. it is the obama approval ratings. it is a state i state election and those personalities count. campaigns do matter and that's why anyone predict the republicans are going to win,

guess what? campaigns make mistakes. we've seen ago go from a republican advantage to kind of -- thesets edging back campaigns and candidates make mistakes. they run advertisements that are ineffective and focus on the wrong issues of stop new information is introduced into these campaign. ,and colorado and can you should get, north carolina -- all of these states, what happens over the next month is going to make a difference. the fourth point which charlie did not raise is that terrific republican and dizzy as an advantage. republicans are significantly more enthusiastic and him up for this election. have to hold to them back from the polls on election day.

they have a significant advantage in intensity. i did the romney campaign two years ago and i have seen those numbers before. we had the same intensity advantage in 2012. i've learned a lot of valuable lessons in working the romney campaign; an unenthusiastic vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic vote. [laughter] and so when democrats are able, because of their ground operation, to turn out voters who are low propensity, who are unlikely, who are low interest voters, their votes count just as much as my republican, you know, 45-year-old, you know, man in the suburbs who rushes the polls on election day. they count the same. so all this you hear about the republican intensity advantage, cautionary tale. and we don't have president romney now, unfortunately, so we have president obama. take that with grain of salt,