gabrielle giffords and mark kelly have been going after her on the issue of guns. race involves a lot of personal dynamics and acrimony. in the last couple of weeks we have seen the ron barber numbers stabilize. we have seen negative ratings for her go up as a result of democrats hammering her on social security and medicare. this is one race where it is really close, it is a tossup, but democrats seem to have a bit more momentum. mcallister, he came out with an ad basically apologizing for his indiscretion . he is now running for reelection, it is an interesting dynamic in louisiana. because? >> louisiana has a weird system of elections. everyone runs on the same ballot, but it goes to a december 6 runoff if no one gets all of the vote.

there are all kinds of permutations on what could happen, but in a sense, mcallister is running for reelection, when you look at his indiscretions and compare them to some others in congress to some have survived, you can't count him out. he is running against not only several republicans, of the democratic mayor. if he is the only real credible democrat in the race gets 25% of the vote it could be enough to make it into a runoff against barbara mcallister. thedentally, "duct i missed liu ck --sty -- -- duck dynasty

," one of the relatives to a person on that show is running as the moral alternative. host: here's the latest advertisement in that race. [video clip] vance mcallister's personal issues are well-known. what is less known is how liberal he has been in washington. he voted for about -- for government that raise taxes and increased spending. these as they are passed repealing obamacare. the more you know, the worse it gets. another example of outside money in the election. in this case that obamacare is not being used in the same way as it typically is used. this is a very conservative

group attacking an incumbent republican expanding medicaid. this is a fascinating race on multiple fronts, but especially because you have vance mcallister running against another republican for the seat, meaning that the voters who essentially decided the race were democrats in the special election. so, mcallister, in pledging to , he wasedicaid support cleverly going after democratic voters to win the election. is the club for growth trying to hammer him for that, thinking that this race will that theydeeper or can use it as an effective line of attack in the november election. going back to the issue of money, this is a headline from

"the journal." "democratic candidates are walloping republicans in the small money game." a similar story on the senate side, where they have raised $30 .illion more than republicans guest: three different things are happening here. democrats overly cracked the code of online fun rise -- online fundraising, particularly in the house. every time a republican does something that is off message, or even on message, democrats have really become very, very effective at lighting a match under their base and getting them to give money. second of all, democrats have tireless leader's in the house who are holding fundraisers across the country. nancy pelosi is still a big draw for democratic donors.

most -- more so than john boehner. president obama -- the democrats have the white house. i think the third aspect of this is that republican small donors, who used to be the lifeblood of the party, there is a disconnect between the rank and institutional voters. you are not seeing the kind of devotion to the nrc's the that you might have 10 or 20 years ago from the base. headlines from "the washington post," "flooding inboxes with last-minute campaign cash." as the house senator for the cook political report, reviews the with nbc news and an advisor and that famous or snowball -- let's get to your phone calls. new york city, democratic line, your thoughts?

are you with us? let's go to clark in wisconsin. let's not forget about gerrymandering. hope that they get control of the congress so that america can be reminded of what it would he like to have republicans in control of congress, like they were in total control of government from 2000 to 2006. thank you. the third congressional district in wisconsin is represented i have democrat. it's funny that you should ring republicansering, packed the third district with even more democrats of the that should make a neighboring district even safer. democrats would do the same thing if they were in control of wisconsin and have done similar illinois, but it

just leads to a more polarized house. we only have about half as many races as we did that are competitive the 10. so, what happens when essentially 80% to 90% of the --se is already added already decided by election day? as 15%e already geared of voters have participated in primaries this year. ahead,lready looking this is called "winning both houses." the house and the senate. gop."son challenge to the "hold off on popping champagne, controlling both the house and

the senate on capitol hill can be a poison chalice for the gop, one that will expose its wide divisions and extremely -- .ncreasingly extremist views they cannot even agree amongst themselves, and the problem grows worse if they are in control." iest: i have heard said -- have heard it said that if republicans take over, we will have three parties. to some extent, i think that's accurate. on aboehner can count number of allies coming into marginal districts, gaining .einforcements the bad news is that the rabble-rousers on the right that give so much trouble when it comes to passing big pieces of legislation, they will grow in

number two, and 20,000 republican seats across the country, 20 of those are in fairly safe republican district where the primary has led candidates as far to the right as possible. in some districts you have fairly moderate republicans who are retiring, and then the primary might get one by someone grossman, an whoour-face bombthrower relishes taking of democrats. in some districts you will have complete shift in the dynamic of representation, even if they are members of the same party. seats solid for the gop, 163 democrats.

that areyou have some tossups or worse, six republicans, 15 democrats. that's right. there are a couple of seats that the republicans are almost assured of taking over. you have blue dog democrats and they are really the only kind of democrats it ever could have held those districts. the 24th district in upstate new ,ork, the republican there democrats are favored to pick up one seat, the california 31st congressional district. strange seat because of the top two system, which knocked democrats out of the .allot this year

this time around they have a better shot. the president is starting out with a plus two, twice as many seats. if you have just joined us, we are focusing on the house this election. --s is david washington david wasserman with us. good morning, homer. the republicans always seem to have a one track mind. right now they are trying to make it all obama, but he's not running. they need to change that tactic or something. obama is not running. host: we will get a response. butt: the caller is right,

republicans are trying to make him the issue from race to race. we saw something very interesting happened several weeks ago in the senate race. knows that it would be very, very difficult to win reelection if it was about national issues. the obama approval rating in louisiana is in the low 30's. when she showed up at a tailgate several weeks back, she assisted the student with a keg stand. an infamous picture was taken. some people think that it would , but ite an accident may not be, considering that isy landrieu us standing with white men in louisiana and low 20's. maybe that could help to change

the subject. john joins us this morning from independent falls. caller: good morning. me, it is notore about obama, but his policies. they have been enforced and supported by democrats. i am an independent. vote more for the issues than the person. but this coming year i will be voting republican is much as possible. otherwise, it would be obamas more or less ho-hum policy andnd things like ebola

isis, which would compel me to vote republican. thank you. thank you for the call. guest: to the extent that foreign-policy issues aren't laid the congressional races, obama's writings of foreign policy used to be ahead of his overall approval rating. now they are significantly below. the washington post poll asked voters whether they believed that obama was a strong leader and for the first time in his presidency only 43% said yes. it's not necessary for the voters in those districts to disagree on the issue. they perceive that he is reacting to public opinion, which really hurts democrats among these independent voters who like this idea of checks and balances, reaching a base

enthusiasm. host: cheryl porter, being challenged by the gentleman who .ad the job or why such a back and forth and those districts? why such a back and forth in the street of congressional districts? guest: we are calling this a three match. befo this is match notre. -- before this. record setter. this would be the fourth in five straight elections when you have both seats flipping parties if they flip back to republicans this year. guintainto -- gfrank unseated carol shea-porter in 2010. she won her seat back in 2012,

turning outa was voters on the ground. now obama's campaign operation is not in the state. it is a situation more like 2010, when frank guinta may have a greater chance of winning the seat back. i think it is a story of which voters are turning out year-to-year. both candidates know this. i think that's why he will continue to see this crowd -- grudge match. host: but it has become more of a purple state, rather than red or blue. guest: that's true. firstrn new hampshire's congressional district includes a lot of voters that either work in massachusetts or moved from massachusetts to escape taxes. you have a slightly more conservative electorate than you do in western new hampshire, which democrats have a better shot of holding onto. carol shea-porter is one of the

more outspoken liberal members ,f her contents -- her caucus considering that she comes from a swing district. you do have a tight race. host: scott is next, republican line. caller: i would like to have your guest comment on the possibility that there will be no white democrat elected from the south in the house of representatives. i would like to have c-span have this man back on the day after the elections to comment about these results versus what he is saying now. guest: we all need to be held accountable. if the last remaining white conclusion -- caucasian members of the party from the deep south -- this is a turnaround from what we saw three or four decades ago , even in 2008. we had a number of white democrats elected from these

districts. thatoting rights act proliferated african-american majority districts throughout the south in the early 1990's was probably one of the worst in that could have happened to the democratic party, it certainly newred in a set of districts in which african-americans could win seats. it took so many african-american voters away from the districts of other democrats, southern, conservative democrats, that those seats have, essentially, gone republican. we know a lot of movement in 2010, the blue dog coalition of more conservative democrats in the house is now down to about 19 members. it was above 50 in 2009 and 2010. john barrow is running a tremendous race. he is one of the strongest democratic campaigners in the country. best inare some of the

the country. he is great straight to camera. e is running against a republican who is a construction is running -- he against a republican who is a construction businessman. are republican voters designed to throw out barrow. the question is whether he can do it in a midterm cycle. just one statistic for our viewers out there. in 2012, for the first time ever, a majority of house -- crats 53% of house democrats are women and minorities. just 47% are white men. 89% of house republicans are still white men. you are seeing republicans hoping for -- very anxious that more women and minorities are elected on their side. host: how do you keep track of all of this? guest: lots of excel

spreadsheets. host: good morning. caller: if the republicans take over congress, president obama -- will they still be able to override president obama's veto? guest: does it create more pressure on the white house to sign legislation into law? his legacy depends on getting some items done in the last few years of his presidency. if you have a republican congress that is sending legislation to the white house, as opposed to a deadlock congress, that is essentially gridlocked, that could force the administration's hand on a few more issues. i don't think you would see democrats looking to replace eric holder. or i don't think you sierra

colder resigning if it weren't for the fact that the senate is at risk, and there is the potential for democrats -- you see eric holder resigning, if it weren't for the fact that the senate is at risk, and there is the potential for democrats -- senate innd, in the 2016, you have twice as many republican senators up for election as democrats. that plays into the dynamic of the house and senate struggling to agree on big pieces of legislation. next caller is from meadville, pennsylvania, third congressional district. caller: can you hear me? host: good morning. caller: i appreciate your articulate and knowledgeable guest. my question is, in the past, what has been the percentage or track record of the predictions that have been made? well, we've been in

business for 30 years now, the cook political report. track record was indecent, i think would be out of business by now. we are kind of out across roads in the game of political forecasting. we have these reports that have been in existence for a long time, have a good name. the cook political report, the rothenberg. then we have these new kids on the block. we have nate silver. i like to write for them on a freelance basis. we have the upshot at the new york times. who put alers percentage odds on a race rather than assigning it a rating. stayfferance is to try and away from putting percentage odds on how likely we think a democrato be won by a

or republican, and try and characterize a race with a little more nuance. i think there are a lot of factors that cannot be quantified how much and the best modelers would acknowledge that. host: let me share with you two ads. talking about the issue of congressional perks. it is under the radar in many of these races, but front and center in some he house races. clip] >> what happened to collin peterson? minnesota senators don't even have two cars. doubleit is more than for gas and mileage than any other minnesota congressman. check the numbers yourself. the national republican congressional committee is responsible for this advertising. clip]

>> when i got elected to congress, i found out there are all these special perks. for a special gym politicians. i said no to all of it. i'm patrick murphy and i approved this message. just fine. here is host: explain these two spots, first going after congressman peterson, then the separate ad by congressman murphy. guest: congressional seniority is not the advantage that it whento be, especially congress has an approval rating hovering between 9% and 15%. republicans are going after collin peterson, the democrat who represents minnesota's seventh district, one of the founders of the blue dog coalition in the house after

1994, as someone who has simply been there too long. democratserson is the leading expert on agricultural issues in the house. he helped broker a farm bill last year. he is one of the most influential members of a certain economic sector in his district, as you would find across the republicans are gaining some traction in that race by betraying him -- portraying him as a creature of washington, even though he travels around the district with his own plane. he is arguably one of the more old-school members of congress and a great retail politician. patrick murphy, a freshman florida, from a south district that actually leans republican, is doing better than collin peterson in his race, in part because he is portraying himself as a congressional outsider, someone who doesn't need the perks of washington. doesn't need to use the house

gym. and he is up in his race by a much more significant amount ben peterson. mount thanrphy -- a peterson. gainingto show you the the kind of years and mileage in the house isn't what it used to be. host: arthur is joining us from memphis on online from democrats -- for democrats, with david wasserman. good morning. caller: good morning. you remember that race in virginia. need toarkansas, you see the commercial about cotton against david breyer. host: former clerk -- president bill clinton will be in arkansas tomorrow. we will have coverage of a campaign rally taking place in conway, arkansas. 11:00 for those of you in the central time zone. do you want to respond? guest: i don't think there are many people at the time that

predicted that cantor would lose. we did write about the race. that the professor forced him to take it seriously. i think the race proves there is such a thing as a negative ad that can backfire. caller: let me stay in virginia, another race getting attention. this is right outside of washington dc, loudon county -- washington, d.c., loudon county. what is happening in that race? guest: this is a race that is mostr to home than any for beltway insiders and the people who are actually advertising across much of the country. a lot of them live in virginia's

10th congressional district. you have barbara comstock, a partyed, republican researcher. she built the file on bill clinton and al gore. democrats cannot stand her. she is a delegate in one of the wealthiest districts in virginia. democrats nominated a fairfax county supervisor, who bills himself as the good government candidate in the race, someone who is a pro-business democrat, putting the county's fiscal house in order, and the like. you have chewed up candidates who are going after a fairly middle-of-the-road district, although i would argue it leans a little bit republican. this isn't the typical northern virginia district you think of gravitating towards democrats. it goes out to winchester and the shenandoah valley. they voted for mitt romney and

can't -- and ken cuccinelli. i think this leans slightly to comstock. host: we will go to harry. caller: good morning. this election is about obama. all these democrats want to tweak obamacare, yet they voted for it like a bunch of lemmings. the biggest detriment to this country's harry reid. -- this country is harry reid. reid hasn't done anything -- let anything pass. they say it is a do-nothing republican party. the republicans are arguing with each other. that's a good thing. i don't want lemmings running this country. host: we will get a response. thank you. guest: is universal the voters dislike congress.

when each party's voters look at congress, they look at the op is it obstructionists -- at the opposite of structuralists. obstructionists. no one is getting what they want. brand is more damaged, the republican brand or president obama? the republican brand is still slightly more damaged than that of democrats and president obama, yet the election is a referendum on the president. that is typically the case in a midterm election, unless the party out of power does something to steal the spotlight, as we saw with 1998 and the impeachment. caller: good morning. we have a pretty interesting race in california, demaio and peters. have the debates on our

website, c-span.org, if you're interested. caller: i would like to see that. issa doesn't need our vote, but demaio does. do you have an opinion if that is close? is peter's in trouble? guest: is one of the closest races in the country. it could go either way. scott peters is a freshman who won his seat in 2012 after serving on the san diego city council. carl demaio is the republican candidate. he ran unsuccessfully for mayor of san diego. filner -- canvasses bob oldthis is bob filner's seat. bob filner got him in cell -- got himself in trouble. there is some buyers remorse.

wonoi one that -- demaio the part of san diego in the congressional district, but now that it is a federal race, it is slightly different. scott peters is lambasting demaio as part of the tea party, as a true believer who won't compromise. and more openly gay socially liberal than a lot of his fellow republicans. -- question is whether he whether voters are open to the moderate republican message, or whether they want to stick with a democrat who has been endorsed either chamber of congress. it was a very close contest in 2012 when peters won his seat. now we are moving to a midterm and the governor isn't likely to rack up as big as a margin as president obama did in 2012. it could slip right back. host: gary is on the phone.

good morning. caller: what do you think the chances are in the next two years, if there is a republican congress and republican senate, that we might be surprised to find out president obama is working better with them than he is with the democratic congress? i use as the template the working relationship that bill clinton had with newt gingrich. guest: i'm not as optimistic that the working relationship would be on par with what we saw between president benson and republicans at the time. back then in the 1990's, we had many more members from these crossover districts. we had republicans representing democrats, democrats representing more republican leaning seats. they worked with the other side and with the white house. president clinton did have those relationships that i think president obama lacks on a more personal level right now.

to the extent that we are going to see much legislation getting ine in the last two years, think it is primarily going to be republican legislation that obama is forced to accept. the other aspect is that we are moving towards a presidential race in 2016 that is likely to overshadow a lot of what is going on in congress. host: let me ask you about west virginia. it was a state that for a while was a pretty reliable democratic state. the longest-serving member of the senate, a long-term -- longtime democrat. it has moved clearly into democratic territory. what is he facing in the third district? coal: whole country is -- country is an evaporator and country for democrats. anan even operating -- evaporating country for

democrats. nick rahal has been there since has in therel since 1976. the margins have been getting smaller because president is woefully unpopular in this district. he is running against a democrat turned republican state senator who is a much stronger opponent than the last two that rahall has faced. are the onlyahall chess pieces in a much larger war between the parties. this race has seen more outside spending than any house race in the country. ads justion worth of through the end of september in southern west virginia, something like $60 for every person in the district. situation where

democrats could really lose a seat that they felt for many decades. host: let's go to bill in pennsylvania. caller: thanks for taking my call. i was wondering if there is any pushback at all in the first session of congress, when the republicans voted against the time and a half a for comp time. some people really rely on that premium. it helps us stay in the middle class. republicans just overwhelmingly voted to end the time and half pay for comp time. i was wondering if that would have any effect on the way the middle-class votes in this election. host: thanks for the call. let me add to that the minimum wage. tryingthe democrats are to blunt the negatives of health care reform by talking about minimum wage.

the problem is most voters don't see it as a hot topic. they don't see it as a new issue. they see it as a democratic line of attack that has gone back decades. in some states, there are minimum wage initiatives on the ballot that are designed not only to help the middle class, but to drive out the democratic vote. we will see whether that is the case in places like arkansas and elsewhere, where you have some hot senate races and some hot house races. host: when graham and steve andherland -- gwen graham steve southerland. guest: we have that race rated as a tossup. we thought this would be a very tough district for democrats to win. it's a very polarized district, in and around tallahassee. you have a strong college student and professor vote in

addition to a strong african-american vote. in the western end of this district, on the panhandle, panama city, bay county, a very republican area. president obama has lost this district twice. republican steve southerland beat a blue dog democrat in 2010 to win the seat. now that he has had a couple of years in office, he's made a couple of mistakes, particularly on women's issues. he earned some notoriety earlier this year for holding a fundraiser that was closed to women. it was a men only fundraiser, where the invitation: donors not to keep the missus -- the invitation told donors not to keep the missus up waiting. a beloved officeholder.

she is running as her father's daughter. she is running as an outsider who has never run for anything before. she has run a superior campaign. this is one of the few instances across the country where a democratic challenger is gaining traction. she's ahead in most of the polling we've seen privately. at the same time, you cannot count sutherland out -- southe rland out. if republicans come home in the weeks before election day, he could tighten up that race. gewen graham.rom [video clip] >> remember this guy? gwen graham was a key aid on his campaign -- a key aide on his campaign. what were you thinking?

is this really what when graham -- what gwen graham wants for north florida? [video clip] >> i'm gwen graham. i can handle the lies. but his vote for the government shutdown? that's a problem. the shutdown hurt businesses and families, seniors, and when both parties finally got together to fix it, congressman sutherland -- southerland voted to keep the shutdown going. that's one reason why we need a fresh start. int: those of the latest ads florida's second congressional district. dave is on the phone from utica. caller: thank you for taking my call. , who had botha ends of congress, the senate and

house, in 2010, ran on a common -- campaign of change. he did it the same as president bush. that led to the dislike of the democrats. i was a democrat and switched parties, became an independent, because they did what the republicans did. more people are on food stamps. more people are on public assistance, disability, social security, the whole nine. host: how do you respond to that? guest: the congressional race in the caller's home district of wasa, new york's 22nd, illustrative of the direction of the rebel government -- the republican party this year. august richard hanna is arguably one of the most liberal members of the republican congress -- congressman richard hanna is arguably one of the most liberal members of the republican congress.

he had almost unlimited money to spend against his opponent in the primary and ran a very good race, yet he only won by about six points. a lot of these republicans who want to work with democrats who are pro-choice, like hanna, are really beginning to see their own base dwindle as a share of the republican primary vote, and that presents them with some problems for getting things done in washington. host: from college station, texas, on the line with david wasserman of the cook political report. caller: good morning. i remember watching on television a town hall with chris shays one time in connecticut. he was talking to a bunch of useful constituents, and one of them happens to ask a question about some piece of legislation -- happened to ask a question

about some piece of legislation, whether or not it would be brought forward this year. chris said, not this year, because it is election year. everyone kind of smiled knowingly, saying, of course that would be the reason why not. that struck me. theeems like no matter what merits are of any particular piece of legislation, the merits of getting reelected outweighed them. guest: that politics. we are going to see a flurry of activity in the lame-duck session of congress after the election, where every group in town has a wish list of what they want to see congress tackle , whether it is immigration reform, whether it is a fix to ,edicare reimbursement rates that a lot of specialty medical groups are pushing for. there is a variety of issues that many groups understand

congress will only tackle after election day. this isn't really anything new. .ost: our last weston think about what the makeup of the next congress looks like. i would like you to talk a little bit about how these new lawss -- voter suppression will affect the election in the republican-governed states. it seems like if they can't win fair and square, they asked the game. i would like you to talk a little bit about that, please. guest: in states like ohio, which has limited the number of days that early voting is available, and states like north carolina, which passed a new voter id law, what we're seeing is some unintended consequences for the republicans who passed the bill. the stated goal was to prevent voter fraud, but what they have done is they have angered the democratic base of the state,

particularly african-americans. we are seeing this come back to hot republicans in the north carolina senate contest, where kay hagan needs every vote she can get against the speaker of the state house. it is unique in north carolina. he helped usher through some of the lost, whether it is voter id or education funding cuts, that are really helping the democratic base get some more momentum to turn out to vote in a year when, across most of the country, it is republicans who are more energized. be careful what you wish for. f we will -- host: we will look for your work online. generally speaking, what will the congress look like? guest: even more polarized than the last one. i know it is hard to believe, but you will see democrats lose