particularly african-americans. we are seeing this come back to hot republicans in the north carolina senate contest, where kay hagan needs every vote she can get against the speaker of the state house. it is unique in north carolina. he helped usher through some of the lost, whether it is voter id or education funding cuts, that are really helping the democratic base get some more momentum to turn out to vote in a year when, across most of the country, it is republicans who are more energized. be careful what you wish for. f we will -- host: we will look for your work online. generally speaking, what will the congress look like? guest: even more polarized than the last one. i know it is hard to believe, but you will see democrats lose

a couple of members that are there blue dogs. you will see republicans losing a couple of committee chairs, some of john boehner's top allies. like dave camp, the chair of the ways and means committee, whether you are seeing mike routers, the chair of the intelligence committee stepping down -- so, we are seeing a congress that is going to have a much steeper learning curve after 2014. there is an opportunity for leaders to help members get underfoot of these issues, really -- get under the hood of these issues, really understand how to run these committees, or there is an opportunity for interest groups to fill the knowledge gap. host: david wasserman, thanks very much for being with us. guest: thank you.

host: we will turn our attention from house to the senate. we have two experts, two holsters -- pollsters. afterakers" airs c-span's "washington journal." the guest, jerry moran. we talked about kansas politics. we also checked in on the issue of money in politics. clip] >> we have great candidates we have recruited and encouraged to run. we have candidates who can win in their state, not only a primary, but a general election. what is missing here? this was a significant, intentional aspect of what we tried to do. when i started the attempt to try to raise money for our candidates, or races even before

we had candidates, it was hard to get them to get out their checkbooks. governor romney did not get elected president. my take away from that is, what do we havee, something to market? do we have candidates who appeal to donors? we will find out if that is true in the next 30 days. i don't go to bed worrying about what our candidates will say and what will be in the headline of the papers. if i can't sleep, i'm thinking about how are we going to make certain that those candidates have the necessary resources to win. i don't know that i like -- i certainly wouldn't like to brag about -- i don't like talking about how we have not raised the money of the senate, but it is a $30 million difference. how does that happen?

one thing we don't have is president obama, michelle obama, who, on adent biden, night, can raise $1 million to $2 million, and have done it more than a dozen times for the democratic campaign committee. >> but you also have the momentum. the perception is that you guys will win. donors try to front run the results, then they open their checkbook. >> i think we've had donors who have been skeptical. i'm glad to hear you say that the perception is that republicans are going to win. we've have that perception before and it didn't happen. i think republican donors are skeptical about one more time opening their checkbook. [end video clip] 2015 student can competition is underway.

100 prizes totaling $100,000 -- 150 prizes totaling $100,000. c-spanneed to include programming, show varying points of view, and must be submitted by january 20, 2015. grab a camera and get started today. "washington journal" continues. sundayrson -- our roundtable focusing on the senate races, featuring stefan hankin and brian nienaber. abc news gets to the broader issue of what this campaign is all about. what is the theme, the narrative for the senate races? guest: that's a really good question. this is one year where it really depends on what state we are looking at. going back the next election cycle, 2012, back to 2000 ex,

there was a very clear momentum -- back to 2006, there was a very clear momentum. world.ar, it is bizarro it looks like the republicans might lose the senate seat in kansas. and democrats not really looking to pick up anything anywhere. it is just defense across the board. it is one of those waking up after the election, and anything between -- certainly, republicans are going to pick up three seats. after that, it is anyone's guess right now. i wouldn't be surprised if democrats held on by one seat or if republicans picked up seven seats. right now, it seems like anything is possible. host: agree or disagree? guest: i think i disagree slightly. there is a broad the satisfaction with president obama, particularly on domestic issues, but there are a lot of

republican candidates running with this general theme of change and doing better and that we will bring a different sort of system of governance to washington. i think you will see a lot of our candidates running across the board with this theme of we can do differently. host: give our audience a sense of who you're working for as a strategist and pollster. guest: i think we've got andner, ernst, mcconnell. i'm not working personally on any campaigns. bullishwe feel pretty about how it is going this year. guest: not working for any senate races directly, but we are tracking 10 different races and also doing work in maine, maryland, ohio, wisconsin, at various levels. host: let me share this headline from politico. "are these three senate races

slipping away for democrats?" among those mentioned, mary landrieu and begich. guest: these are states that obama lost handily in 2012. these are very red states. louisiana, arkansas, alaska, these are the toughest races that democrats are going to be having this year, just based on the demographics and the trends of what is happening in these states. think as charlie cook has said, susan collins could lose the race in maine if she tried, but everywhere else, it is a tough race -- tough landscape for democrats. kentucky is a little closer than some people might think, and george also is a little is a veryg, but it tough landscape for democrats this year. host: arkansas was the third race that politico was writing about.

the former president, bill clinton, the first of four appearances. we will have live coverage of his remarks to rally support for mark pryor. guest: i think it is a sign of how tough this race has become for prior -- pryor. he came in in 2008 and had a lot of -- republicans were fortunate to get a strong candidate, one .f the good campaigns i think this will be one of the closest, most exciting races in the country. i am pretty bullish on cotton's chances. host: this is a race still listed as a tossup, but a poll last week gave bruce braley's opponent the edge. guest: he may be doing better than what some of the public olds are showing. we will see what happens -- public polls are showing.

we will see what happens. the republicans did themselves a lot of favors this year by the candidates that they got through the primaries are much more electable. we don't see any candidates that seem to be repeating what happened in missouri last time for delaware in 2010. that was one big hope for democrats, that we were going to get some nice candidates to run against. i think also, for a lot of these states, arkansas, louisiana, alaska, these are 2008 candidates. -- much more favorable to democrats. there was much better turnout. republicans don't have a great track record going back to 1980, i believe. they've only been three sitting democrats.

i believe it is 12 republicans who have lost to democratic challengers. historically, democrats have done well at defending these seats. we will see what happens in about four weeks. (202) 585-3881 is our line for republicans. (202) 585-3880 is our line for democrats. "romney at rest. far from the scrum of the campaign trail, the former nominee reflects on the calls for his return." one of the ads put together by the chamber of commerce looks like this. [video clip] is ready to send a leader to washington who will demand fiscal responsibility. thankfully, iowa conservatives have such a leader in joni ernst . conservative,

soldier, she has what it takes to turnaround the mess in washington. toase send joni ernst washington. host: the iowa senate race and where things stand, also mitt romney and this continued from we are are -- drumbeat hearing, at least in the media, of a possible 2016 bid. side, shethe ernst has been a good candidate from the beginning. she is an outstanding candidate. she has hustled across the state. i think she is going to be a wonderful candidate and i suspect she is going to win in november. i read the article. he seems far less bullish about running for president. he reflects on it.

like any candidate, he could have been there. my phoebe -- my feeling from reading this is that he probably enjoys the scrum of being helpful with candidates. he was always generous with his time as a candidate. chuck from charleston, virginia, on our line for democrats. caller: good morning. i wanted to ask the question of brian nienaber -- ask a question of brian nienaber. "a marriageeadline issue splits gop." it seems like republicans are split into three camps. they say there is a small but growing number who favor legalizing gay marriage, hard-core faction that continues to denounce it, and a sizable group in between that seems to wish the whole issue would just disappear.

host: we will get a response. guest: it does fairly characterize where the gop is. we are a big tent party. gay marriage is certainly an issue where we have a social conservative side. site.is a religious we have a more -- religious side . we have a more libertarian side. we have a lot of voters who would rather us focus on the bigger issues of fiscal discipline, having a strong foreign policy, and let this be an issue that we decided more at the state level and in other ways. i think this is a fair characterization. i don't think we are going to see gay marriage rise to the promise it was in 2008 as an issue for voting. host: let's turn to patty in virginia. caller: i have a question for both analysts. i wanted to know what you

thought would be the biggest surprise in the senate the morning after the election. host: good question. there's always one. guest: if i'm going to pick one, i will say that grimes pulls it off in kentucky. that would be my pick. host: how confident are you in that prediction? guest: coin toss right now. the numbers show it could happen. both candidates -- grimes, in our numbers, has a slight advantage on people who are bullish on voting for her. mcconnell is very unlike. th-- unliked. the fact that the senate minority leader has such a fight on his hands speaks to how voters feel about him. grimes has been running a very good campaign. augh to unseat someone in

leadership position, but that would be my pick for a big surprise. host: can you envision a scenario where the public is pick up the senate and mitch mcconnell still loses? guest: the road of politics is littered with the bodies of people who underestimate mitch mcconnell. he's a formidable candidate who has proven time and again he knows how to find a way to win. host: a new ad released just days ago from the alison grimes campaign. [video clip] >> i'm honored to approve this message. >> what is being a senator about? one candidate believes it is about getting new jobs, good jobs, getting middle-class kids -- nobody can tell me it is not a senator's job to create jobs, and i choose alison because she will work with people of both parties to do what is right for you. alison for senate. host: by the way, dvr alert.

october 13, week from monday, 8:00 eastern time, the first and only debate in that kentucky senate race. we will have it for you live on c-span and on c-span radio. that's a week from monday, october 13. for allowing them us to carry that debate for the rest of the country to see what is happening. north carolina, on the republican line, good morning. caller: good morning. i have a small question on the economy. democrats are bragging on how well it is doing. that would be the 1% in this country. everybody knows that wall street ain't in mississippi. let'st comes to that, really look and see who are the rich and affluent in this country. and in the senate races here in north carolina, kay hagan is all

for middle eastern oil instead of oil out of this country. so, republicans, just remember when it comes time, tom gillis is your man. he will be the one to fix this they. thank you -- this state. thank you, c-span. my homehe knock against state aside, this is sort of -- back to your original question. it is interesting how it is manifesting itself on both sides. someoneteresting for from the republican line to be using the 1% line that tends to be more the democratic vote line from 2012. we are seeing this in the polling numbers, at least in our numbers. even though we see unemployment time,low 6% for the first some 250,000 jobs created last

month -- even if the numbers are saying that things are heading in the about people are hesitant jumping on the bandwagon about feeling good about things you we see it in focus groups, too. even though things are getting better for them, they feel like they should be happy about it, things don't feel quite right. that seems to be happening just about everywhere we go, even from an economic standpoint. even if they are doing ok, they are not feeling bullish about how things are going, and that certainly reflects itself in the data. host: stefan hankin is a graduate of the university of massachusetts, founder and president of lincoln park strategies. brian nienaber is a graduate of purdue university, a veteran of capitol hill, current vice president of the tarrance group,

and a republican pollster. we will go to michigan. another big senate race in that state. good morning, democrats line. caller: i would like them to talk about why they are not his cussing governor christie -- i all theke stefan and democrats to talk about why they are not discussing grover norquist. we need to worry about government regulations. the government is not doing enough about ebola, about isil. the government needs to be doing more. why are we as democrats not talking about the fact that the republican pledges of no new taxes are damaging what government can do? host: thanks for the call. guest: i'm sure this will light up my inbox with lots of e-mail from democrats.

we were talking about the negative on republicans. going back to 2006, outside of obama in 2008, there hasn't really been a positive-focused campaign. everything has been about how bad the republicans have been. vice versa, most of the republicans, going back to 2010, has been about how bad obama is. this is why we are seeing voters throw their hands up in the air, outside of the hard-core base on both sides. they are sick and tired of hearing how bad the other side is. favorability is in the low to mid 40's. he is doubling up democrats and republicans in congress. obama's numbers aren't great, but i would rather have his numbers than what's happening with democrats and republicans in congress. people are throwing up their hands, sick of both sides. i think it -- what will break through is a positive vision for for democrats sing -- stand

and what control of congress , versus focusing on someone like grover norquist. host: at this one, do you sense it will be a wave election -- at this point, do you sense it will be a wave election? guest: i think this feels a lot like this is sort of the beginning of a wave. you see candidates doing better. particularly in the senate, it seems like that wave comes much later in the cycle. this seems to be the time when we are seeing candidates take ahead and close people out. i think we will have a pretty good wave in both the house and the senate of picking up seats. host: do you agree or disagree? guest: i think it will be a little bit more in the tossup category. if democrats end up with 51, 46,

47, it wouldn't surprise me, but it is hardly a wave from what we are seeing. if you look at the governor's races, in a typical way the election, from top to bottom, one party or the other benefits. .t's all over the map democrats are struggling in massachusetts, maryland, the pga dgaputting money -- the is putting money behind the democratic candidate. i see this more as a tossup election in the sense that there is anger towards incumbents across the board.

host: we have an interview coming up with jerry moran on newsmakers -- "nwewsmakers." here's is what he had to say about his home state. [video clip] >> there is a race, no doubt about it. you used the word "independent" and talked about whether or not a democrat would be on the ballot. a democrat has not been elected to congress from kansas since 1932. we are a republican, conservative state, and the trend is that way. democrats saw their candidate probably wasn't going to win -- wasn't going to win, encouraged him to get off so-called, and then a independent could win the general election. the independent was a democrat candidate against senator roberts in 2008. the so-called independent is a contributor to president obama financially, a contributor

to harry reid. the word of "independent" has some appeal to people. the reality is this is not an independent. this is someone who is pretending to be an independent to try to overcome the problems that a democrat would have running for the united dates senate from our state -- united states senate from our state. host: we are seeing that narrative, brian nienaber, in some ads now in kansas. guest: he makes the point very compellingly, that this is a democrat masquerading as an independent. his consultants are democrats. he has given to democrats. host: but he voted for mitt romney in 2012. guest: so did other democrats. when you look at the totality of people who he is going to have around him on his staff and advising him on his campaign, i think he is certainly a democrat. this is the too,

one time that republican should get behind moving -- rooting for the kansas city royals. dvr listings in our society. the kansas city suburbs is where roberts needs to win this race. they will have a great opportunity to run ads that everybody will say because they will be watching the games. getou are republican, behind the royals if you want roberts to win it. host: it was a late-night for those watching the game. caller: i'm confused as to how the democrats can lose -- 90% of it has been traced to democrat donors. democrats are like swimming in money from poor people, who

cannot get out of the tax system like the general electorate who can get out of the tax system by building a bunch of worthless, unworking windmills. so, i don't know how it is possible that democrats can lose the elections. host: we will get a response, stefan hankin? guest: i'm not sure exactly what he is going for on that. cross-references there. i talked about this before. what's happening. one of the reasons why democrats are going to be having a tough time, the states that we are dealing with, the fact that we are defending more seats than republicans, most of the tossup seats in red states. this all looks in 2016 -- all flips in 2016.

it becomes much more favorable to democrats k -- democrats. democrats will be defending 23 bets -- republicans will defending 10. and turnout patterns will be much better. host: the democrats "walloping" republicans in the small money. tim from myrtle beach. two senate races in your state. have mr. would like to

hankin's comments about voter suppression. i think there were a lot of votes in other states from illegals that were counted, that the pollsters don't really .nderstand or know about these people are voting. time,th carolina at the you did not have to show an id at all. you could go in there, vote, probably under several different names, then run across the state line in south carolina and probably do the same thing, until you got down further in the state. host: can you respond? guest: this is fiction. this is something made up by -- i won't say it is the republican

party, but at least people on the conservative side of this so-called voter fraud. there have been no actual cases of voter fraud. anything that has ever happened has been people who are registered to vote in two different places because they live in, like, florida and new york.

>> host: it's down almost a quarter of the electorate. >> in 2010 there was this much more evolved tea party republican. but our party has always had a strain of fiscal conservative and people who think that the government should be smaller, doing less. but then you have this fracture of who is the leader, who should i believe in? is it this, is this that? and the money they've raised to spend on spring campaign. it might not be the people

identifying with us, but i think our party has always had a component of people who think that the government should be smaller. >> host: we're talking about senate race politics and the midterm elections generally. we have a call from the bronx. joe, you're on the line. >> caller: hello, i alway now wi want to discuss this morning in reference to the senate, now, republicans have to remember, and i just heard the guy who is going to be on after 10:00 this morning, the republican, he already remind republicans of that. the republicans ju

>> caller: this is a very sad case we have in our politics right now. >> host: mississippi, clara is on the phone. >> caller: good morning. i was just sitting here listening to your democratic strategist and i would like to inform him. i'm 78 years old, and i was born and raised in chicago. i'm well aware of voter fraud that takes place within the democratic party. also, if they would just consider harry reid holding up all those house bills they might be able to get something done. i don't understand why you keep blaming the republicans when the democrats are just as responsible. >> host: thanks for the call. >> as i said in the beginning

i'm not saying that the democrats are perfect players in this role, but i was saying that to place the blame at the president's feet is wrong. look, there is plenty of blame to go all over the place. this is why we see favorability of the senate like at 15%. john mccain i described it down to friends and family who think that we only are doing a good job. both parties coming to the table and being bad actors. >> with go to new york. good morning, independent line. >> caller: good morning, how are you? >> host: fine, thank you.

>> caller: i can't say who is a better republican, limbaugh or colin powell. he has more patriotism in his little finger than rush limbaugh has in his little body, and that's not even close. >> yes, that's a great point. i think this speaks to where a lot of the--you take the two bases aside. you get people in the middle. we did a national poll.

people who don't identify themselves as strong republicans or democrats, they feel the vast majority of them--the democrats are too liberal and the republicans are too conservative, and they're stuck in this place. a lot of it comes with name playing. this is not just a republican thing. this happens on both sides. are you a dino or rhino, democrat in name only or republican in name only. it's a very sad state of

>> governments have a lot to pursue and finding voter fraud is not at the top of the priority list in the days of tight budgets, and we live in a society where i.d.s are essential in the community, even to attend obama benefits. absentee voting, early voting, they've made voting easier than

when i lived ther

>> the president has done some things well while in office, but getting things passed is not one of them. >> host: you can watch c-span also on our website at www.cspan.org . steve is joining us from florence, colorado, republican line. good morning. >> caller: good morning, guys. i've been listening to you guys. and it's interesting. the question that i've got for you guys is the guy who says there is no compromise any more. we've done this to ourselves. we've created so many laws on either side. they create laws on this side

and then that side, and they're counterproductive to each other. >> host: that goes back to your earlier comment