republic, but not very democratic until that's fixed. i would suggest something like an amendment to the constitution making congressional districts to nine make it so that you cat have such a convoluted district. bring back some democracy. have a great weekend and listen to the score for the game. we are cheering for the tigers. host: go tigers. he mentioned book tv. book tv, every weekend on c-span 2. 40 hours of books and nonfiction . 49 hours of books and authors on book tv, including a live call-in on sunday.

michael korda will be with us on sunday for live call-in. if you are interested in nonfiction books and publishing, tune into book tv and american 3 everytv is c-span weekend. 49 hours of american history tv on c-span 3. show you this, the op-ed page of the washington post. the health care bill we intended and it is written by senators tom harkin and ron wyden and congressman sander levin, george comment henry waxman. it is in defense of the affordable care act. robert is in oregon. go ahead. caller: good morning to all.

thank you for the segment on --. i wish that was an option for him. want to talk about in regards to the election this year in oregon. theave the governor and senator rerunning. i cannot believe how why it the quiets in regard -- how the news is in regard to his , and who is a lobbyist cultivating marijuana. no one is talking about that appear. it is a big issue. it is not being brought up. i am concerned about that. our unemployment as above the nation's average. blockingrnor is

something that would bring jobs to the state because he feels it is: issues, etc., etc.. have, missr we monica, who is running, who is a brain surgeon, unbelievable woman with experience. host: finally, we will hear from rose. you have a congressional race going on. caller: we lost half of our house during sanda. -- during sandy. my brother-in-law, his car in his house was gone. like grimm someone could not run because he did not do anything during this whole

time. i would like to complement the lady who talked about, the ones we all pray to god, but we are always afraid to go. we think about heaven. you can spend $300,000 keeping your family members alive and there is no quality of life. they cannot talk. we think about that when the baby boomers are frail at that stage. living wills might be an idea, if we knew what people wanted and have more options like that. host: we are going to leave it there. we are going to a live event at the wilson center. this is on the impact of low oil prices. the panelists will be introduced in just a second, including the dean of the africa center for strategic's that ease the national defense university. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2014]

>> we have seen a price of oil and gas come down across the nation. the wilson center is holding a discussion on oil prices. experts examine the political and economic effects of the lower prices and what it could hold for the future of russia, nigeria, it rack, and venezuela. it should be underway shortly. this is live on c-span.

>> we are live at the wilson center in washington, d.c., for a discussion on falling oil prices. experts will talk about the political and economic effects of the lower prices. it is expected to start in just a moment.

live coverage, here on c-span. >> this discussion on falling oil prices should get under way and just a moment. we want to update you on our political coverage from campaign 2014. some debates we show you tonight will start with the alaska senate debate. mark begich is facing dan sullivan in a debate that took place on thursday.

we will have that on c-span at 8:00 eastern. we will show you the virginia seventh district debate. in the new hampshire second house debate, that is coming up tomorrow. next debate will be tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. eastern. on the companion network on and 19th housek debate will be tomorrow afternoon at 2:00 p.m. eastern. eldridgeson faces sean on the minnesota seventh house debate. we will have that for you tomorrow afternoon at 3:00 p.m. eastern. finally, the ohio 14th house debate is tomorrow at 4:00 p.m. eastern, here on c-span.

>> if everyone could take their seats, we will get started. i want to welcome you to the woodrow wilson center. policy scholar here, associated with the global europe program. let me wish you a happy halloween. for those of you new to us, let theive you background about center itself. woodrow wilson was the only president who had a phd. president to be the of princeton, the governor of new jersey, and a two term

president. congress wanted to honor him and decided against a marble statue or monument on the mall. memorialted a living to president wilson. what we are charged with is to bring together both sides of his life. policy analysts, he was a political scientist. peopler, with influencing policy here and around the country and increasingly around the world. our president and ceo, congresswoman jane harman, as we honed our mission and she emphasizes that we are the , nonpartisan partisan form, where we tackle global issues and we do it through independent research and will have 150 people that come here to do some kind of policy research, we do it with a set of programs that literally cover the world.

we are focused on the economic -- impact of low oil prices. we might be talking about in oil shortage or a sudden spike. today, we might speculate that dracula drank the oil. instead of oil prices, oil prices have been falling. , the star of the new york yankees, warned us it is hard to make predictions, especially about the future. you could say that is true about oil prices. prices certainly are surprising. the american automobile association reports the average price of a gallon of gasoline across the entire united states is three dollars. that is a nice treat for a lot

of american drivers. those who today are to think about the future, goldman sachs among them, are predicting lower oil prices that may persist into 2016. we are going to ask what these lower prices mean for a number of key oil producers. to explore that question, we have assembled an array of expert. let me introduce them briefly. the far and, he is a public policy scholar working on energy . he was formerly the counsel for international strategy for chevron and a chairman of the eurasia foundation. he has come out with a second edition of his energy security volume. it is available in paperback. i promised him i would urge you to buy a copy if you want to be

up to date on energy questions. he brings a world of corporate experience, public service, research, extensive academic background. we will call on dr. raymond to give us a sense of what oil prices might mean for nigeria. academic dean for the -- the african studies. he was the research director at the central bank of sierra leone, among other major posts. , tackling essay energy infrastructure, vulnerability, violence join a

long list of other publications. his work draws on his doctorate of development economics from cambridge he -- from cambridge. expertise ons in oil and other kinds of oil prices. she brings the background that includes positions with the international finance, the u.s. albrights, the stonebridge group. this is quite a collection of achievements. she has contributed to a that includes npr, bloomberg, and a host of others. masters degree from john hopkins.

will pomerantz is the director of the canon institute. he will him -- he will explore the impact prices in the russian federation. he practiced law in moscow for several years. there are no reports of corruption in moscow, so this must have been a light practice. at the kennan institute, he directs the kennan institute rule of law program. he has written on russian law in a number of active journals. law degree and a phd from the university of london. your, if you would raise -- david is a senior scholar at

the wilson center. he is an active part of the middle east program. years for the35 washington post. addition to the middle east, he spent time in southern europe and in africa and went on to focus on national security related questions area he is a prize-winning journalist. an -- has a distinguished academic background. his most recent book is "the king's minister." i am reading the book now. i highly recommend it to you. last, but no means least, to my left, i am delighted to welcome greg, who will serve as the moderator. career onowing his

radio and more recently the economist, many of us got to know him as a public policy scholar for the wilson center. he will have a book based on that research coming out in december or early 2015. we will let you know when that is coming. has a rare ability to speak economics and english of the same time, which is no mean feat. book, how the economy works in the real world, was described as a must-read in economic literacy. thank you for coming. have a wonderful halloween. i will turn you over to an early treat of this panel of experts. >> thank you. here for two months working on my own project. i enjoyed meeting scholars and coming to events. it is a pleasure to be back and taking part in the great debates

that wilson center promotes. price of oil, the a few thoughts preoccupy us. as falling oil prices, and unadulterated positive, it acts like a tax cut for countries like us that consume a lot. states is a major producer of oil, so there are negatives that were not there before. richrich come -- some countries are worried about inflation being too low. it makes it harder to change the deflationary mindset. the bank of japan announced a new quantitative easing monetary policy, partly because the decline of the price of oil is making it harder for japan to escape deflation. these are countries that reply heavily on hydrocarbons.

we have a terrific set of panelists to discuss these implications. we will start with jan, who will talk for five minutes. >> thank you. it is a pleasure to be here. strengths atque the center, we decided to pursue the focus on energy policy and launched regional and global energy series. hold the date for the next one on the north american energy renaissance, next thursday, november 6. it is going to be an interesting topic. today's topic, low oil prices. if we maintain $80 per barrel or bes, there will likely

economic stimulus for consumers and put additional presser -- pressure on producers. we know from history that what goes down can also go up. in helping to frame this hypothesis of low oil prices going on for some time, i will say a few words about revenues, growth, industry. first, revenues, most have come to depend on their budgets in oil prices of $100 or more. of 20 to 25% will surely put them in a squeeze. be their budget flexibility, their reserves, and the duration of the price drop. -- is rollers, which

there is no corruption in places like russia. and wes this challenge can expect these rulers to do all they can to preserve their be at thehat will expense of an impoverished population. second, economic growth. as the imf reminds us, most of the world faces at best, anemic growth. biggesthe world's energy consumer is adopting a large stimulus, which will increase demand. similar septic -- similar stimulus in the gulf states. this increased demand will drive 12 to 18s up in the month timeframe. third, the energy industry. generated more jobs in

the u.s. since 2008. oil production is 80% of this period. frackinghis due to shale. see a sharply slowdown of the shale business. it depends on high investment to --.d more the opportunities are mixed. personally, i would prefer to see a steady price, say $80 per barrel, rather than the price gyrations of the past. in a domestic context, i would had agas priced -- if we floor of around one dollar 23%

-- $1.23 per gallon. context,he foreign , the only oness with barrel capacity and huge financial reserves. i think this is an opportunity to discuss a price band that they had proposed in the past. timing is critical. we need to move quickly to exert the leverage of high production and low prices. russia is a much harder nut to crack. we will hear more from the regional and country perspective. as we do, we should not assume lower oil prices are here to stay. we can try to take advantage of our current, stronger position for that of our partners.

>> thank you. we will hear from raymond that next. he will talk to us about the implications for africa. >> thank you. it is a pleasure to be here. has 54 oil countries. it will take a while for me to go through them. i'm going to choose one. mostia is the world's 10th important oil producer in value terms. a resource driven country. you look at oil and nigeria per make it 20.does not ,il revenues and oil investment lloyd has been happening lately falling oil prices

have a lot of implications domestically and globally. i will talk briefly about three issues. first would be trade and investment, and then the fiscal challenges, and economy challenges linked to stability. from an investment perspective, we know that while nigeria has , pumps out over 2 million barrels of oil a day, it is very interested in the infrastructure. with decreasing oil prices, you will see a reluctance of investment to flow into nigeria to do the much-needed upgrades in the infrastructure and also to have new exploration. land --.the wells, on also in terms of trade, we are

seeing in 2008, 46% of all nigeria's exports came here to the united states. trendings probably towards single digits. there has to be significant diversion on the nigerian side, which would be a little more costly for nigeria. asgins will be slimmer declining oil prices begin to hurt. to bely, what is going damp location? here is where you see the narrative. low oil prices, poverty, etc.. purposes,ic budgeting it is complicated. floor. has a $78 per barrel currently. , if it stayspact where it is, it is going to be medium-term, not in the

immediate. what will hurt, sovereign wealth funds, the excess crude accounts, and international reserves. last two years, they have done an impressive job of keeping international reserves at about x month of import equivalence. if this continues, things are going to be drawn down significantly. the sovereign wealth funds used to be at about 9 billion u.s. dollars are now below 3 billion and dropping. you are going to see pressures excerpted on the currency and the relatively stable lyra has been the anchor for a lot of nigeria's recent economic progress, including its leapfrogging. economy, roughly between 200 and 300,000 barrels

a day are lost in nigeria because of various shades of theft. whether it is a lucrative business, partly because the margins are so wide. . .

>> the government is trying to limp along with oil prices

it only accelerates the risk of the political prices i talked about and threatens the ability to s meeting its current debt requirements internally. >> now we will hear from will about the situation in russia. things are very similar. they are not looking very the short-term. the is a budget lem less money ere is for a variety of programs put forward by pres. putin. his military budget is responsible. he will not have money to fulfill various of mises made in terms

increasing social spending the 2012 presidential elections, and he will not have much time for crimea. obviously a lack of revenue is leads to which then increased demand and requests on the substantial financial reserves that russia has. russia did enter this crisis is almost half $1 trillion the there any day funds but it is officially raining right now in russia, and the the y is going out. over last six months half of those funds has already been spent only increasing. with increased pressure on reserves there is not as much the currency. the ruble has tumbled more than 20% beginning of this year. at various times the

government has been spending a lot to support the ruble, a substantial increase in interest rates. will have to that stabilizes the ruble. there is a knock on effect for inflation and your asing power for average russian citizen. the second problem is that the already out et is of whack. the minister of 2015 to proposed a new budget two weeks ago, then immediately announced it was obsolete because it was based $100 a barrel f for oil. he now says he is thinking of a 20% cut across the board for the russian unfortunately the russian media has not prepared anyone for such substantial that is also looming.

by other problem raised other panelists is that the fall of the price of oil has had a devastating short-term on russia's energy producers. they were engaged in ventures in the arctic, which are now off the because of us sanctions. the oil companies in russia cannot get western financing. because of possible from anctions resulting the crimea crisis. as a result one place to turn, which is the russian government. $50 billion for asked for which huge amount of money. a amount of available reserves. and their other lining up behind rosnev

as well making significant on the russian treasury. the drop in the price has really begun to impinge on the russian government and its ability to carry out various programs. the last point i want to mention is political and social of these developments. obviously tuten has not been economic arguments. he has proceeded to do what he wants to do from a geostrategic standpoint and not been concerned about the economic consequences. as a consequence he does have certain advantages going into the crisis. he has high popularity and no real political opposition. and he maybe things will -- nge and other price for will go back up. as part of his return to power he way to e out of his

really undermine all of the intermediary institutions that cover this crisis. minister, , the prime and so forth. if this crisis does indeed hit badly for russia there are no institutions to of orb it and the finger blame will eventually be pointed directly to putin. his down ncts are to double rather than compromise that will cause various problems. the final point out -- i will make n is that the people taking to the street are hard-working and rely on the government for their salaries.

this crisis is different from crises we have seen, such as in world war ii.this is crisis that f-made has resulted in the conjunction putin's actions in crimea. he look at the legislation has been passing, in many ways most glaring is a law that would force the russian to compensate oligarchs have their villas in italy. i think they assume they can rely on the patience of the russian people but that is not necessarily the case. >> thank you very much, will. now david will speak. >> i will address the petro power part of today's session

and what saudi arabia appears to be up to as we head towards of the opec 12 on the issue of n reduce its c will overall production and therefore put the price back up or not. the main accusation against saudi arabia was that it is to force down prices, to protect itself the oil shell revolution and maintain its oil et share amongst an glut.the saudis have long been producer d the swing

have e world becausethey capacityto produce 12.5 billion barrels a day and they are producing nine billion. they are also in a key position they have huge billion. is the after china and japan. compared to the size of $228 udget, which is about billion this year, it has enough foreign reserves to of the government spending if it did not get a penny for them for the next three years. people think that the

price and needs in order to its budget is around $85 a barrel. but some estimates put but some estimates put at or $97 a barrel. it really depends on the level of spending which is already decreasing after two or three years of very high increases to deal with social problems as a now lt of the arab spring. the last few ed months is a sharp change in the saudi attitude about what is an oil price. in may the oil minister was suggesting fair price for everybody. in june at the price went up at the price in august ince then

and september the saudi's have that $80 a barrel, which you already mentioned, is them unacceptable -- and acceptable for opec. what is going on behind all this? that there ng on is is this enormous scramble for of the chinese market. china started going around the world and buying oil price they can sales this is affecting to saudi arabia, imports. to china are ts

down. because the chinese are just going around the world and -- where they or it. to my amazement colombia has become a major of oil to china at a below what the it to china for. colombia's exports last few have gone zooming up. $94 are selling oil for selling it dis are $102. the determination of producers, and not just also offer raq

by count prices, followed kuwait. the saudis cut their oil prices by one dollar for everyone in the world. this crisis on the price of oil is about to come to a head with this meeting of opec. what is their effect? sanctions ally seeing cut its oil exports. they are already hurting because they cannot export as much. but they to cut oil orced prices because of this for the chinese

market. the president yesterday iranian parliament revenues are il -- now %. nats is going this is going to put enormous pressure on the iranians. situation is getting difficult for the other one, iraq, is in real trouble. but there are so many other factors apart war the oil price f they are oing on.

losing kurdistan in the north, exporting its oil separately, they are losing a of income from that. nobody knows of the islamic state is end up affecting oil far it has not.but if the fighting goes further affect it could quite substantially. lot of other a factors in the price war. the most interesting factor are the nuclear negotiations. >> to start the conversation i like to explore the

foreign-policy implications. that oes the adventurism countries have engaging in affect prices?back in 1985 when the price of oil this was the major from the soviet regime. how does the price of oil affect soviet adventurism in places like ukraine? >> it will have an impact over time and in many ways the agreement was made yesterday gas, you could argue was a comic downturn in russia. russia as i've mentioned is in desperate need for hard currency reserves, and the only way for it to maintain its natural gas reserves is to

deliver gas to ukraine, and for that onto forward western europe. there was pressure to come to some agreement on gas and that was this ongoing energy crisis. in terms of how russia acts going forward i think in many ways the price of gas will and oil will be one variable. but the second will be the ability to maintain sanctions on russia.the eu is maintaining sanctions and will reconsider sanctions in march. change in hould be a will likely be said r. but the eu has that if russia does not recognize elections they could increase sanctions.it is going a lot of different

if they do but weaken, and a lot of countries are advocating for that because are getting hurt themselves, there is a change in sanctions policy, putin would have succeeded in pursuing this divide and conquer strategy which gives leeway. there are a lot of variables when approaching the ukrainian question. >> what about venezuela? it has would use its he oil riches to prop up cuba and other countries >> what we see is that penicillin is already starting its petro ack programs such as

petrocaribe and other arrangements in the region. we saw them completely eliminate its arrangements with argentina, paraguay, and we also see that the program which gave high loans countries in the caribbean has declined a lot as well. is a 20% reduction of countries. member and even cuba export numbers, is private tanker data, but they are down almost 40% of i think two years. lower oil prices accelerates government needs to scale back programs that have significant member ations of these countries especially cuba, but the dominican republic, jamaica, and offers an it

interesting opportunity for the us to engage more in an area in which venezuela has been dominant the last two years >> can you talk about the ongoing insurgency with boko haram? >> in the recent us africa forum we had a lot of talk regional anchors on the of tinent. nigeria is one them. it is important for a perspective. it almost unilaterally bankrolled peacekeeping. it is a lot better for nigeria troops to than for us do so. a lot of the financial and fiscal burdens that this drop in oil prices, if it were affect nigeria d

would diminish its capacity to is also the issue nigeria is a really market for consumer goods. nigerian banks are syndicated across africa. significant conflict would business nigerian links with other countries. it is difficult to say what this means for nigeria and but a lot of es to believe that

there is a connection between the scale of oil theft and the flow of life weapons into nigeria, and also the funding groups that perpetrate see ence. should we the worst-case scenario would be a worsening of insecurity. the best case scenario would be of thea whittling out number of the players which would enable the government to that become few prominent. it could go either way. from the u.s. foreign-policy perspective, i think it behooves us to understand these dynamics now. youeed to understand how this incentivize the spoilers and provide influences with this

base they need to make much-needed adjustments that nigeria needs to make. you were touching on the situation in saudi arabia and iran. arabia's is saudi andvior based on the price attempt to destabilize iran? >> it reminds me what was the reason for saudi behavior in the mid-80's? thee the out to help sink soviet union by driving prices down? i looked into that. as far as i could see, it had more to do with the rivalry among the opec members. its impact on russia was secondary.

it was collateral damage and not the main reason for doing it. it did have quite an impact. they are in this incredible rivalry. it is a showdown between the two of them. i think it is really once again saudi arabia's concern for its and it isn opec showing that it has the ability to control the price maker and the price breaker. determination to maintain a key role over the oil market in front of all of these competitors coming at them, even from their own allies. struggleis in the opec

of the mid-80's. i think it has a lot more to do to maintaingoing that it wants to be number one in china's market as the main exporter of oil to china. that is about a million barrels now. they have to maintain their market share. >> this is a secondary benefit. to turn to some questions in a few minutes. if you have a question, but your hand up. before i do that, get your questions ready. i would like to ask you, we just heard about the drive -- drop in the price of oil makes life harder for russia and venezuela to cause mischief. will the united states a year

from now say this was an event that made the united states stronger in the world or weaker? part of this has to deal with the leadership that the leadership exerts. our is partly because of dysfunctionality in our government. there is an opportunity here for doing some significant things in energy diplomacy. one of these things has to do with the price. the saudi's have expressed explicitly in the past to the u.s. bit you can't control a market like this. the saudi's have an important influence to try to move things in the direction of more predict ability and stability in energy

pricing. i think that is in everybody's interest. if you have swings, they are going to hurt people on both sides. given the fact that consumers are producers and producers are consumers, it is a mixed bag. we have to keep our i on the ball in terms of what we can do internationally to take advantage of that. it is $2.95 at one of the gas stations near where i live. that is wonderful. i would be much more reassured and i know that is politically beyond reach for reasons that i find unconscionable. we should be pushing hard for $3.25 price points. then we have a security trust for anything below that price point which goes into badly needed infrastructure spending here at home.

if you look of the transmission lines for power in the united states, they are in terrible shape. we have all of these shortages that we now know about. this is the time when we have the advantage of an energy dividend to show leadership. we have to get in the mindset of being proactive instead of reactive on issues of energy security. >> thank you very much, john. what's take some questions. we will start with you there. >> thank you. >> please give us your name and affiliation. >> i am from the foreign service institute. .y two questions are directed you mentioned that if the economic situation in venezuela continues to tear rate, you foresee a regime change.

what do you mean by that? are we talking about an impeachment? a military coup? other question i have also in the a pullback caribbean and central america, you mentioned that you foresee engagement in that part of the world. what kind of engagement specifically? >> the regime change question is a good one. i think the idea of a military is difficult to foresee in the sense that the military is already in power. this is already a military government. the roleen increasing of the military in his government to help ensure his survival. when i think about transition scenarios, that is why i see it something that has to come from

within the voter base. a scenario in which there are massive protests and the basis of the streets, i don't think the military would be willing to defend the government. i thinko means that there are different factions within the military. we have a very divided opposition. thati think about transition scenario, there is a possibility that you have something that is very messy. certain parts of the military are siding with different figures in the opposition. it is hard to see a clear path out of that. i think any transition scenario would probably be one that is quite messy. of petro caribe, the u.s. says very limited and what

in terms of foreign policy. one area where we can work with member countries is they been very slow to update their grids and move away from dependency coming from venezuela. these countries are increasingly like:ng about alternative gas. in the powers sector can play a role in helping these countries move their energy policy in a different direction. that is one area where i see a lot of room for cooperation. >> right there. recently, an interesting documentary has come out. fuel at the gas

pumps. it claims that the oil companies are resisting. this would have an important impact on biomass-based fuels such as methanol and ethanol. have you seen this documentary? about those opinion fuels? >> i met a technical expert from chevron. i will tell you that from what i , it is not the oil companies so much as the auto industry which does like the idea of having its warranties put to the test by fuels that

not processmay may as well as it should. pitchedstion should be to detroit as much as to houston. requirement.ady a we talked about e 15. i think the idea of using food for gas is absurd. we should be going to he 15. sources,er fuel anything we can do to debtor's -- diversify the mix and make sure that we don't get into trouble is something i would favor. them. not an expert on even pruden is an outspoken critic of fracking.

>> i am an independent investor. i would like to ask you, what is your opinion of the effect that lower oil prices might have on the developing relationship between russia and china in their energy relationship? russia uses china as a new market to explore. it has signed various agreements with the chinese to increase the delivery of oil and gas to china. it sees that as part of the broader strategy of its own pivot towards asia. i think the risk that russia faces is not finding new partners, but this short-term

financial crisis. since western financing is closed to russia, there is a possibility that russia will have to turn to china if this crisis continues over a longer. of time. russia will have to consider what are its own policy consequences. >> the chinese do not feel required to accept higher russian oil prices or gas prices compared to lower ones that may be available elsewhere. they have a bilateral relationship to worry about and competition to worry about globally. deal, they recent did not include the price for gas that would go to china. a deal as thete

russians made out to be. i think the price is anticipated in those types of contracts. >> i think he is right on point. not talking about gas prices suggest the chinese have the idea that the gas price will be lower and the russians believe it will be higher. we've seen this for long time. they call this the deal of the century. i think it might take a century for the deal to work. >> right over there. with the world bank. i think my question -- you alluded in your remarks to the impact of low oil on the new

u.s. unconventional energy. walk us through a few scenarios of how long did it take with prices at this level for that industry to be heard. how well capitalized are they to write out a. of low prices? >> that is a good question. part of the answer is the industry started developing independence. as you can see from that, you see the independence point of very important role. when you have a situation where they do depend on returns that plus, youated on $80

can see that the ones who are the pushers forgetting us into a position woulds be more exposed earlier. they might be able to write out more. i don't see the majors abandoning the field. they aretent that needsed requirements, they to make sure that they are still active to a certain extent in order to meet the requirements. much of this is privately based. it gets back to the basic economics of the gas business. the a dollar price point is quite important in that. think a similar scenario could be in the african countries.

southwestalong the and the great lakes region. we have a lot of independent perspective going in. most of these countries have already started to anticipate fiscal gain. this is all predicated in something that is around $80 or $85. we have seen a number of african countries walking. the government would be left high and dry. nigeria,talked about you have the old oil and the established countries that do have a lot of the majors. then you have a lot of countries who are entering. that is problematic. >> with have a question back there. i think i have the name

correctly. the almostference to drying up of nigerian crude oil exports to the united states. the u.s. used to be the number one destination of exports of nigerian hydrocarbons. shift ore a possible downgrade of political relations between washington and nigeria shift?sult of this major presidents before obama did pay visits to nigeria.

they did upgrade relations between washington and nigeria. we haven't seen or heard president obama even mention about nigeria. >> thank you. that is a complex question. let me see if i can take it in bits. the reduction in the nigerian exports to the united states is not a function of foreign policy. function of foreign policy decision. it is a market-based decision. the bad thing was the downsize for nigeria, the quality and type of oil that was exported is very close to the shale oil.

upt is why nigeria ended being this advantage. they have taken steps to diversify. they are finding it difficult because it is not easy to enter a lucrative market. it has been diverse if i'd northward and eastward. will they be hurt by this? i don't think so. i think there are a lot of other things that the u.s. and nigeria could collaborate on. there is the power africa and initiation that is very important. you also have the new approach to peacekeeping and nigeria is a regional anchor for peacekeeping. there are a number of things that the u.s. and nigeria could

collaborate on. reduction in this the share of nigerian exports to the united states is a foreign policy driver. >> right in front of you there. first, i'm glad that both countries are facing problems. we know that lobbying with them will increase their support. >> how about right here? >> another venezuela question. two parts. how many quarters worth of debt

service would venezuela have if oil prices stay in the 80's? if debt service gets proportioned, will i cut more from petro kariba? >> that is a good question. with oil prices at 80 and they maintain the current amount of imports and do some sort of adjustment, they will have to do value in the next few months. service their debt in in 2015 in 2016. resources, i see them both scaling back on petro caribe. we see them scaling back. they will be more aggressive next year and maintain a minimum amount for cuba. cuba's demand is about 40,000

barrels a day and they have been getting about 100,000 barrels a day. cutting the rest of it further, we will see them renegotiating terms with china. 330,000 barrels a day to china. the import figures from china show that those numbers are down 200,000d $200,000 -- barrels. government as being in a short-term survival mode where they are looking for cash anywhere they can get it. orking for additional loans some kind of swap, the domestic subsidy is hard to touch with the government facing elections next year. they've been talking about for long. venezuelan oil is about nine

cents per gallon domestically. they could generate about $13 billion here. this is a government that is terrified to do anything cap put ramifications. that is potentially destabilizing. i think that is off the table for now. i think maybe you will see some cut back instic 2016. i would expect it to be gradual. i don't see them just eliminated it outright. >> i would like to ask a related question. saudi arabia supports a welfare state. is that threatened by the .ecline in price somewhatsome's desk controversial inside said he read it. one of the leading billionaires

wrote an open letter to the oil minister a couple of weeks ago. he said this could be a catastrophe at the prices keep going down. government to the keep prices up by cutting production. said anything like that before in saudi arabia. this was a member of the royal family. it is highly unusual. think it would be a catastrophe for the economy or the spending level of the $80rnment to have a oil at or $75.

it is clear that there is a debate within the royal family about whether they should cut production in order to keep prices up. at a how this is going to turn out. i think it has a lot more to do with what the other opec members are willing to go along with. if they are not, i think the will maintain their production level, which is going to force down a prices considerably below $80. >> what was the concern? >> i could not figure that out here it i think it has something to do with the dissidents within the royal family. they come out and attack rest of the ruling

royal family. to me, it was more something going on among the ruling family members that it was over the reality of this being a possible catastrophe for the country. >> let me see. right here please. the belgium and the sea. -- embassy. that gettingagine to deal or breakthrough would create an easing of the oiltions and iranian exports. do the russians have a negative

incentive given the possible impact of the oil price and getting to a deal on the iran a nuclear talks? >> i think they do have divided incentives in terms of how they approach the nuclear talks. russia is aware of the cut somehow enabling iran to have the sanctions reduced or lifted. this has made sure that they avoid iran. they find the from waist to get their products delivered to europe and to international markets. if the sanctions were to be , -- iran, they won't have to go through the various type lines in the been constructed.

another advantage that has gained over the last 15 years. russia does various conflicts as it approaches these negotiations. from a certain standpoint, they playerave to get another on the market that will compete against them. more question it. on the aisle. i am just coming as myself. i've come across some articles and some data about the republic of congo and they have a lot of oil over there. what effect did they have right now on the global demand. you see an increase in the new

future? >> that sounds like one for you, raymond. >> thanks. they are at the exploration stage right now. they are looking at new deposits and trying to bring them. this decline in oil -- investors will be apprehensive about entering these markets. margins will be tight. the majorlyt get technologically endowed firms coming into the country's. those first steps could be problematic with the impact for many years. that is the bad news.

the good news is it should force these countries to be a lot more judicious in their engagement. in many of these countries, the state bears a proportion of the risk and it is important to be able to quantify those upfront. >> we are drawing toward the end of the event. i would like to send you off with a question that occurred to me. if i mean characteristic of the petro state is it is the only game in town for many of them. they have very few other significant industrial sectors to fall back on. when the prospects of what we makes them less petro state driven and less affected by price? >> in nigeria, there

has been increasing classification. was telecom, finance were real movers. the problem from a physical perspective is the tax effort has always been directed at the oil sector. toeria does not know how garner fiscal revenue from the non-oil sector. that and haveo more investments in infrastructure that supports the non-oil sector to make it happen. this might be a wake-up call. thispends on how long downturn lasts. >> i think venezuela has been

going in the other direction. they're concentrating more of their economy on oil. i don't see this changing that strategy. what i do think we could see is moving more aggressively. venezuela does have the largest oil reserve in the world. there is a lot of potential there. there are some policy bottlenecks that of sloan investments -- slowed investments. the bet is going to be on increasing connections. >> the russians of an talking about diversification since the collapse of the soviet union. they've never managed to do it. the is interesting is cyclical nature of the prices should pay to our advantage. -- play to our advantage. the collapsing ruble should make their exports more competitive. it should promote domestic manufacturing.

those of the standard arguments. when you look at the russian economy today, none of those will occur during this crisis. it doesn't export that much. it doesn't have an entrepreneurial class. the sanctions make foreign investment difficult. a diversifiede economy. they are not in a position to take advantage. >> do you have any thoughts about middle east countries? saudi arabia is working hard on diversifying. they are doing it because their internal consumption is going up or a quickly. that limits what they can export. they are going into solar and development. they have gas rather than oil.

they are very conscious of it, believe it or not. they have the money to do it. >> any final thoughts? >> i think this is an example of what do we do? this window is not get a be there for very long time. one of the most important initiatives that can be undertaken at this point is one that deals with energy poverty. 1.4 billion people do not have access to electricity in the world. dividend, it seems like initiatives could be taken. we can have transmission lines if we get into development for people.

these are important steps to take. shouldn't just say what do we do about the petra kratz. they are going to continue to keep taking their take. that is going to be the general perspective. to do this soon. and the pricet up of oil means a lot to the whole world. it has a big impact on development and consumption. this is been a great discussion. thank you so much. thank you for your questions and your interest. [applause]

>> it will be available little desk later today on the website. campaign for 14 coverage will continue tonight starting at 8:00 with the alaska senate debate. he most recently headed the state department of natural resources. with four days to go, these are some of the ads that alaska residents are seeing. you've seen a lot of ads attacking my family. i wanted you to know the facts. alaska has been my family's home for generations. my dad is teaching us to be independent women. we learned a lot about sacrifice

from service in afghanistan. dad will be a great center for alaska. young, ourwere father loved to bring his or. , in things seemed impossible try to do it he would've done. when i took on obama, i took them on to protect our gun rights. fixfighting like hell to the health care law. i approve this message because i will go anywhere to do what is right for alaska. >> i served with dan sullivan in the marine corps. >> he was a leader that led by example. >> he turned -- trained marines to be ready in cold weather conditions. >> this country was built by

people like dan sullivan. >> he cares about his fellow countrymen. if he says something, i believe him because i trust him. >> i approve this message. over 9000 new jobs. he eliminated a deficit and invested in firefighters and schools. he took on obama to fix the v.a.. he is taking responsibility for fixing the health care law so it works for alaska. >> i approve this message because i will go anywhere to do what is right for alaska. >> coming up at 10:00 tonight, a debate in virginia.

last night in the new hampshire senate race, jeanne shaheen met scott brown in a debate. here are some of the exchanges. >> senator shaheen, the mother of james foley told abc news that the state department and national security officials repeatedly threatened her family with prosecution if they paid ransom to save their son. was this necessary or did the government mistreat the foley family? that hardlinenk was necessary. i have had a chance to talk to the foley family about what happened. this is one of the things that brought home to us in new hampshire the threat from isis. i had the opportunity to question both secretary of state kerry and secretary hagel about

the hardline that we took. i think we need to look at how we are helping families were faced with these situation that these family was faced with. we should do everything we can to help those families. i don't think we should pay ransom for americans. that puts more americans at risk who are serving around the world. it is important that we treat the families with respect and we do everything we can to negotiate a release of any americans held prisoner. can you imagine if that happened to your child? what happened, everyone of us was saddened. senator shaheen and i went to the memorial service. what the state department did was unconscionable. they would use the strong arm of the federal government to chip away at our rights and freedoms and do something important for the family to heal and have a glimmer of hope to get their child home.

i would of done anything in her thing to get any one of my children home. that is the problem the federal government. they are chipping away at our rights and freedoms and telling us what to do and how to do it. i disagree with that. it is time to stand up. >> that happened last night. have thent polls senate -- race within the margin for error. that is from politico. this news from the campaign trail this morning. supporters of fred upton are spending big in the final days before his election. the democrat is within four percentage points of upton.

the powerful republican could be in a sleeper race. super pac said they would spend $1.5 million. >> throughout the campaign, c-span has brought you more than 130 candidate debates. this tuesday night, what c-span's live of election night coverage to see who wins and who loses and which party will control the house and senate. our coverage begins at 8:00 with results and analysis. you will see candidate victory and concessions pieces -- speeches. we want to hear from you. campaign 2014 election night coverage on c-span. >> in new jersey senate debate between cory booker and jeff

bell. this is about an hour. photo 2014. today's debate is brought to you york and abc in new the league of women voters of new jersey. republicantes are jeffrey bell and democrat cory booker of newark. moderating the bait --

moderating the debate. >> thank you for joining us for this debate. >> have gathered here for what we hope will be a wide ranging discussion of the issues. each cantilever one minute to .nswer the question at the end of the debate each person will have one minute to make a closing statement. let's begin by random drawing. the first question goes to mr. bell. only five people have been diagnosed with ebola in the united states and each one has a direct connection of first generation connection with the source of contagion. are we making too much of this? are we overreacting?

the media? americans? or is this an ominous public health issue? what would be the first priority. >> the government has under reacted. we have underestimated the ease with which this things spreads when it gets around into a given country. on aould have cut off temporary basis all flights from the countries involved. i think president obama has once by political appointments and place. we have to have a temporary travel ban. screening people in the airports is not enough. i don't think the just saying the experts think that it won't help is enough.

i think we have to air on the side of caution. >> i want to thank the sponsors of this event. this is a clear difference for new jersey voters in the choices you have in this election. between someone already who's obviously about a tea party attacking, attacking, attacking and hardening of positions as opposed to somebody in the state of a crisis that really reaches out and finds ways to work together. look, i'm the senator right now, and the biggest call to my office is from new jerseyians worried and concerned about this issue. and so as a result of that, what i've done first and foremost is make sure that after tea party and others look to cut organizations like the c.d.c., that they had their funding. and join with my colleagues on both sides of the aisle to get them $88 million more. on top of that i say we have to hold the people accountable. and i've been talking directly to heads of c.d.c., health and human services, even going out to newark airport to make sure all the policies and procedures are there.

and working with the christie administration to make sure our hospitals prepared and i will be held accountable for keeping us safe. >> the next question goes to mr. booker. mr. booker, the shooting at the canadian parliament complex in ottawa certainly heightened fierce about a homegrown lone wolf terror attack. it's believed the gunman was sympathetic to isis and given that new york and new jersey are really considered the leading targets for terrorist attacks, how would you make sure that there are adequate resources given to the state to combat terrorism? >> first and foremost, the number one time, the only time in the situation room in the white house was to work on the challenge of homegrown terrorism. and we need to make sure that our agencies that are in charge of protecting us have the resources necessary to do the job and we're being very aggressive about that. that's why i've supported investing especially in new york and new jersey which have been targets in the past making sure that our local law enforcement officials and our state

officials have the resources they need and the kind of coordination to stop these attacks. but i want to tell you, i have a worry. i worry right now that while in states like new jersey, we have good laws in place to try to keep guns out of the hands of criminals we still live in a nation where someone who's on a terrorist no-fly list, that we worry about committing terrorist attacks can go down to virginia where my opponent has lived for the last 30 years and go to a gun show and just buy a weapon without background checks. we need to tighten up common sense gun regulations to keep weapons, guns, out of the hands of criminals and terrorists. we should change these laws as soon as possible. >> mr. bell, your response. >> i'm astounded that anyone would turn this situation in canada into a sermon on gun control. this is a worldwide problem. it is not just a matter of an individual criminal or terrorist. president obama is very reluctant to call things like this acts of terrorism. and that is part of the problem. we have to be honest about what the nature of the problem and

the extent of it. and we have to take greater measures to prevent this from happening, to screen more people as they're coming into the country. but more important, it's a worldwide war. and to say that it isn't a war as president obama insists on doing, whether it's the domestic war or what is happening with islamic state, is -- is just unconscionable. we have to be truthful about the nature of the problem and much more active both overseas and here. it's better to do it overseas before it gets here. >> and a quick follow for you, mr. booker. do you support putting american troops on the ground to fight isis, and if so, would it be for a limited time period or would this be open ended? >> first of all, isis is a real threat and they've been cutting swaths through the middle east and putting in danger ethnic minorities, beheading citizens, doing harsh and horrendous things to women. and they must be stopped. but at the end of the day i disagree with the president that he should have come to congress

actually to have an open debate about our commitments to this crisis. i'm a big believer that they must be stopped. but before we rush off to war, let's make sure because we've learned the hard lessons in the past, let's make sure we have an open debate and clear objectives. we have contingency plans because we've seen what happens and how things can go wrong in the past. and let's make sure that we have all the resources we need to do the job and that our allies are footing some of the bill and bearing some of the burden. america can't just rush off into this. we need to have an open discussion and debate about what the strategy and tactics are. and make sure we're doing this in coordination with our allies and make sure we have a real plan to stop this isis threat. >> mr. bell, your response. >> again, i'm astounded that you would say that the priorities to get the allies to spend money on this. there are no allies who can take the leadership. america has the only 21st century military in the west. and to say that we have to wait

for allies to spend money, we have to have a debate in congress concerning that a declaration of war exists. that is what we need to do. we have to have a debate about the strategic objective. not the ways and means, not the type of bombing, not whether troops are ever deployed. some of them already are. but that's irrelevant to the issue of what is our strategic objective. franklin delano roosevelt was a great war president because he knew the situation we were in world war ii the only policy toward the nazis and the japanese empire was unconditional surrender. our debate should be we have to destroy isis. we have to annihilate them before they annihilate us. which they have consistently threatened to do in beheading our captives. >> our next question comes from mariela saigado and it goes to mr. bell. >> mr. bell, more than 30,000 accompanied minors have traveled into the united states illegally from central america.

they claim they're escaping from poverty and from violence. and they are in new jersey and they are in the state and more than 1,500 to be exact are living right now in new jersey. would you support any sort of plan that integrates them in our society, in our schools, since their families have been here already or any plan that would give them temporary or special status for this -- these families and these children? >> we have to be compassionate, mariela, toward those who have been sent across the border by parents who are desperate. either unaccompanied they came or accompanied by coyotes. but i think it also illustrates the failure of the obama administration on the issue of immigration in general. when the dream act failed to pass, president obama went out and gave an amnesty to young people who would come here with their parents, not of their own accord. and it seemed like an acceptable thing to do in some ways but here two years later we have a national embarrassment and humiliation with this system and

this nonsystem we have causing this flight from the south. toward our borders. we have to do everything to change the immigration system, to replace the mess we have now with a legal immigration system that includes both a path to citizenship, for those here illegally, and also a guest worker program for those who want to work here temporarily. president obama pays lip service to this. but he did nothing when he had the majority of votes for immigration in his first two years in office. >> so the state of new jersey shouldn't wait any more and grant them some special status to these families? is that what you're saying, mr. bell? >> i believe we need to help them. whether you need to legislate a special status or not, i'm agnostic about that. but certainly we can't act as if they are criminals. >> mr. booker. >> thank you very much.

i support the comprehensive bipartisan immigration reform that we have seen going on and actually passed through the senate. and it involved people from both sides working together that would have helped so many children in new jersey. i support the dreamers act that again has some bipartisan support that can give those kids who no other country but the united states who have learned from our schools the ability to stay here and contribute to our great economy and our great country. what's really remarkable to me is that my tea party-backed friend already, in this little small debate, just a handful of questions, has shown the kind of attack, slam and slander he is. he says he believes in tea party militancy. has already mentioned the president and attacked -- i'm counting now seven times already. that's not going to bring us together in washington and move us forward. we need people that don't believe in tea party militancy but come together with people on both sides of the aisle and solve difficult problems like immigration. there's a comprehensive movement going bipartisan, not like my opponent who wants to retrench and actually wrote a book called "the case for polarized politics." we don't need more what's making washington bad.

we need people who will bring folks together and move our country forward. >> i would like to answer that because apparently the senator is unaware that i have worked for 10 years for bipartisan comprehensive immigration reform. even working for a latino civil rights organization, la raza. la raza, president, jana magia called president obama the deporter in chief and he is a complete phony in saying that he wants immigration reform and senator booker, not a word of criticism to had complete abdication and failure on his part. i have a track record on working for a bipartisan immigration bill. i even -- i was filmed in the office of senator ted kennedy in 2007 working on that. it's really silly to say that i am a phony on that. >> mr. booker. >> sir, i had the privilege of meeting ted kennedy and no two further apart politicians than ted kennedy and my opponent.

and i have a simple belief. someone tells you who they are believe them. if they look like a duck and quack like a duck, then believe they're a duck. this is a guy who is supported by the tea party. this is a man who actually wrote a book called "the case for polarized politics." if we send him down to washington, he's not going to be involved in bipartisan coalitions. he himself has told us, i believe in tea party militancy. that means digging in, don't compromise, the kind of shut down government problems that we've had. america's had enough of that. it's time for people to come together and work on solutions to our problems. >> i thought the whole point of working with people who are different idea logically is to bring them together on things they can agree on. but i guess senator booker has a different definition of bipartisanship. >> and gentlemen, we're going to have to move on. the next question comes from matt friedman and goes to mr. booker. matt. >> senator, this is a good segue into this because with the congressional inaction on immigration, president obama had planned to issue major executive order to overhaul the system, as much as he could by the end of the summer.

but amid pleas from democrats, who are locked in tough races this year, they feared voter backlash and president obama delayed action until after the midterm elections. do you agree with president obama's decision to delay action on that executive order? >> absolutely not. the president was wrong. the president should have stood up and made the call to do whatever he could to advance what's right for america. you know, i've spent the last years travel all around my state while my opponent was working in a think tank in washington for the last 30 years. and when i talk to people both business folks as well as people in the community, they understand that we have a problem. whether it's people who come to our schools and graduate from our universities, as soon as their student visa is up we are kicking them out when they want to contribute to our economy or young kids being denied access to citizenship even though they spent pretty much their entire lives here. we have an urgent immigration issue. there should be no waiting for politics. i didn't support the president's

decision. and i will continue to go to washington to work to bring people together to make sure that we in a unified way solve this problem. >> senator, no one is going to come together if the president threatens unilateral executive action. it's just not going to happen. you pay lip service to bipartisanship, but you've just advocated something that would completely foul the immigration debate. having the president do everything by executive action which he's not constitutionally entitled to do which would drive republicans and everyone else in congress away from the table. you talk a good game on bipartisanship but that answer shows that you really don't mean it. >> may i respond to that, please? this is a typical tea party cry. attack obama, attack obama, attack obama and call him king obama for all the executive orders he's done. if you look at the numbers, president obama is doing less executive orders than other presidents from jimmy carter to ronald reagan to even george bush. again, this is exemplary of what he does. he's part of a movement that is

going to be slamming and slandering and not stopping that madness and finding ways to bring people together to work together to find solutions. we've had enough of that in washington. his book tells you that. the title of it is "the case for polarized politics." we don't need more gridlock in washington. we need to work together and solve our problems. >> polarization is sometimes a public service because it enables voters to see the difference between two points of view. that's the sense in which i think polarization is sometimes good. >> let's go on to jonathan tamari for mr. bell. >> let's go on to jonathan tamari for mr. bell. >> governor christie said he's tired of hearing about the minimum wage and later said the focus should be on creating better and higher paying jobs. democrats have been saying they want to give a raise to 3.3 million people who earn the minimum wage or less. n the the federal minimum wage has been $7.25 an hour since 2009. should it be increased? >> it's a bad time to do that because the openings are so limited.