sides of the parties. they never tell the truth. they dance around the issue. they will not answer you yes or no. and we're frustrated. i am so sick of this nonsense. it's like somebody telling me they're peeing on my leg and it's only rain. we're tired of the lies, the -- all the nonsense going on. also like wall street during the bubble no one went to jail. i told my students i'm a retired college professor, too. go to wall street change your last name you'll never go to prison and you can steal all you want. host: you've been out on the campaign trail a bit. are you seeing that same sentiment that gerald expresses with the frustration of congress? guest: absolutely. and gerald had an interesting point and reflects the unique thing about this cycle, which is in past cycles there's been anger at one party or the other. president obama, president bush, congress. but what's going on here is voters are angry at both obama and both the republicans. and it's really what we're

trying to do is figure out where the anger is concentrated more and how it plays out. so this is just a very interesting dynamic. and they want to throw the bums out but then they hate the other side, too. so it's just -- it's a very, very strange cycle. ost: a question for you. >> i haven't heard too much about them at this point. i think that they're going to fall in line. i don't know that but -- it seems like the fact that kay hagan is still in a tight race that the republicans are coming out. if they were going to sit that one out she wouldn't -- she would be walking away with this. so i don't know too much about that but it seems like the fact that these races are still competitive means that they're saying they're going to come out. host: your thoughts on the future of tea party versus

establishment republicans after the 2014 cycle? guest: well you still see some appearance of tea party candidates. like in louisiana rob main nuss is probably going to be a critical factor. he doesn't look likely to win. he's taking maybe 10, 12% of the vote but he may very well deny a flat out victory to the republicans. so -- and sara palin is still up with advertisements this weekend for man ust. so there still is an element of voters who are really disappointed with the republican party are not ready to embrace the democratic party and the tea party still expresses i think the tea party to the degree there is such a party it still represents where they are on the spectrum. where the question is when they walk into a voting booth and see a tea party or third party an outside candidate will they cast that vote or will they cast a vote for the bill cassidy or the other republican who seems to be more likely to

win and a better choice than a democrat. host: talking with paul singer and abby livingston with roll call one of their campaign staff writers. here to answer your questions, take your comments for the next half hour as we're in our last political roundtable before the 2014 election. chicago, on our line for democrats. caller: good morning. when i see people like these two people come on the program and i applaud them because this is what they're getting paid to do but i hear them say they are and if. how can you say they are going to win and then you turn around and say if? if they were so good in their predictions why didn't somebody tell romney in 2012 that he was going to take a whooping? i hear karl rove talking about the president is going to be beat. and until the last vote is counted on november 3 how can

you come on tv and just -- unless you know something that the public doesn't know? these republicans are going to take over? and this is my last thing. i asked a couple of months ago from george washington to george bush as far as foreign policy goes, how many men did they get? this president from bin laden to ben gaza who we spent millions of dollars tracking down. the president has gotten his men. host: i want to stick on projections and how you come up with these toss-up categories leaning one way or the other. how does u.s.a. today do it? guest: well, it's a great point. i want to underscore this exactly. none of us know anything. this is all based on prediction, on polling, on our understanding of the races, on sort of feeling the mood on the ground. none of us know anything. the voters go to the polls on election day and they make the decisions. all we are offering you at the

moment is what we call educated guesses. and that's one of the reasons why when john asked how come the various u.s.a. today, the rothenberg, roll call all have slightly different analysis, that's why. it's because nobody voted. well, in the early voting states people have vote bud we don't know how they've voted. so all of these are based on what we know about the voters and how the polls have trended. i give more faith to polls over time than i do any specific individual poll. so last night the iowa poll showed joanie ernst up 7 points against bruce brailleie. that's the biggest lead any time since the election season. does that mean that joanie ernst is going to win by 7 points? yorning so. but what it does reflect is a trend if you look at all the polling over the summer into the fall you will see that joanie ernst has done well and better in all the polls. that suggests momentum in her

direction. so i don't mean to say -- and i don't think any of us mean to say here's the outcome. we know what's going to happen. i will tell you that every reporter i know has their own sort of betting pool like, well, i bet you it's going to be maybe 8, 6, 7, 5. we're doing our best guessing and trying to give the viewers an opportunity to hear what we think is the most likely scenario or the trend in the election. but we are not calling races. host: the des moines register oll, here's the chart of it. abby give us an example of predibblingting a race and coming up with how you go about calling leans or toss-ups. do georgia's 12 strict down there. guest: that's a hard one. and i'm very glad that this year stewart rothenberg is the

main caller of these races and that has been taken off me because it's one of the most stressful parts of the job. georgia 12 is fascinating because you have john bareo who is a blue dog democrat who has been in office for years and years. and he is what we qual a white whale republicans keep trying to come after him and he keeps getting reelected. he runs some of the best ads of the cycle. he -- host: and is always listed as the most vulnerable or one of the most vulnerable at the beginning. guest: and we have quit putting his name on the list because it's -- it just never happened. so it's almost a superstitious thing. the republicans don't talk him up as much as they used to. they don't even want to go there. so the other thing that's good for him this year beyond the superstition and the fun of it is that michelle nun is at the top of the ticket and could be offering him some relief that he hasn't had in years past. but he's just a really testify

lon candidate who can make the case to his voters that i am a democrat but you know me and you like me and keep sending me back. so i have this fear we've kept him off the list and then this is the year he losings and we get it wrong. host: what does the race ranking right now? guest: i believe it's a toss-up maybe leans or tilts d but he's just a fantastic candidate that outperforms his district. host: you can see all those rankings at roll call.com. story from roll call on the final rankings of the ten most vulnerable senators. we can run through

>> we want to get to your calls. good morning. caller: hi. host: go ahead. when everybody in the democratic party, when they had the senate and the house they voted for a health care law that nobody has ad and just passed and how incompetent is that? and bring all of our businesses -- people getting fired and losing their jobs. and here i just got a 73% nterest hike on my health care

premiums. any democrat that would vote that never read the law -- nancy pelosi should be fired. she really should -- all of them. arry reid. does this cause the downfall of the american people? and also, i have to say is why didn't the lady that got beheaded in oklahoma city after the president got on and talked about trayvon martin, about that other eric holder incident and michael brown which we feel bad about? but why was no attention brought to that lady that got her head cut off? and also -- host: you bring up several issues. i want to stick to the campaign issue of health care and how that's played this cycle. i want to give paul singer the politics under u.s.a. today to talk about the evolution of

that as a campaign issue in campaign 2014. guest: it's really interesting. scott brown's race in new hampshire gave sort of an interesting perspective on it. when he first announced that he was going to be running for senate in new hampshire, all of his press releases for the first three weeks were obamacare. that was all they were. obamacare is lousy. this is early in the spring this year. over time his press releases began to change and other topics began to come in, particularly terrorism and ebola and things like that. and i think that is a good barometer of how obama care has played during this election season. we thought originally that it was going to be the issue that drow people to the polls. all the republicans would say the obamacare was a terrible thing and it's destroyed america. and we thought democrats would refuse to take any credit for it. what has been surprising is to

see in some races, even in arkansas mark prior having an ad saying i was proud to vote for health care for people who had existing conditions. i was proud to vote for health care for your children to stay stay on your health plan. so democrats have found some things that they can embrace in the affordable care act. and republicans as the thing has turned out not to be as unpopular as they have expected have turned to other issues. obamacare the affordable care act is still an issue that republicans cite as being part of the problem that needs to be fixed or repaired. there's much less energy on sort of replace the whole thing, tear it out and start over than there would have been a year ago. host: talking about some of the senate races. are you seeing the same dynamic in the house races that you've covered? guest: we're absolutely flum oxed by how few ads we're seeing about obamacare. we were amping up and expecting that. i think part of it is that

voters do find things that they like about it. specific issues within the legislation. i also think it's just the ads have been run to death for four years and they no longer register with the viewer. so i think it's more -- i think it's partially a need to be more creative with ads but i think it's also clear that it's they need to branch out to other issues and add to the competence issue, the chaos in the world issue. it's just one of many issues rather than the dominating issue. host: talk about all the campaign ads this cycle. i want to show some of the late campaign ads. here's one from mitch mcconnell playing on the idea of the number of campaign commercials in his own campaign commercial. >> you know, a lot of people try to tell me how to do my commercials. >> we see you between two trucks. > that sounds dangerous. >> hey, mitch. what about using a talking baby? >> that's been done before.

>> well then with you and blood hounds? that's not going to work. maybe it's enough to say mitch fights for kentucky. >> maybe this isn't such a bad idea. i'm mitch mcconnell and i approve this message. host: is it time for those kind of ads? who does not like politicians and blood hounds? guest: i think at a certain point you are still trying to make the message to your voters that you hear them, you understand what they're saying. and in fact a lot of voters now are saying please stop we're tired of it. this is an opportunity to make mitch mcconnell a little more personable. which again for mcconnell is an important point to make. he's not the most likeable guy. i doipt mean he's bad. he's very in his shell most of the time. here's an opportunity to show he's just another guy having fun. host: the democratic senatorial campaign can he wanting to touch on a few issues on that campaign with their own late ds in kentucky this cycle.

host: the late ads this that closely watched kentucky race. we want to talk about the races important to you. our viewers. and for about the next 20 minutes or so here on the "washington journal" in our final political roundtable of the 2014 cycle. illinois on our line for independents. good morning. caller: good morning. how are you doing? host: good. go ahead. caller: i just watch these ads

and i understand that they're trying to get reelected for a job that they're not doing. none of them. obama included. he hasn't done anything. the only thing i see him doing is [inaudible] he got out on the golf course. i don't see [inaudible] he's not a leader. he doesn't take responsibility for anything. and the democrats just run off behind him. i just don't understand that. host: abby give you a chance to jump in. that image of president obama on the golf course. gave a lot of attention at what was going on around the world and what the united states was dealing with? how did that play out? guest: people are unhappy with it. it's not reassuring. i think it just speaks to the larger issue that they feel like that many voters feel like

there's a competence issue. sometimes i feel like democrats on the hill are angrier at president obama than republicans. they feel like he hasn't done the things he needs to do to take care of himself politically to help them. and even though he won't be on the ballot to give them cover or make things less bad for them and they're having to defend themselves and fight his fight for him in the districts where they're running. host: up next from ormand beach, florida. good morning. caller: good morning. that last caller was way off base. it's on record that president obama has created more jobs than in all the 8 years that bush was in spithe of the fact that from day one of his presidency the republicans and their corporate buddies have deliberately held back jobs figuring that the next president would be a republican like romney and they would get a sweeter deal. but here's the facts. governor scott here in florida

when he was a ceo of a hospital before he became governor ripped off medicare the federal government for billions. and see that's how they operate. they don't like the government but they like to steal or exploit government by just like in georgia where nun the democrat is running against this purdue the guy that owned general dollar store. he bragged about outsourcing jobs. he bragged about it. i don't figure it out. but then look at paul ryan. look at his budget. no benefits for the unemployed. no help for the students. but who is his hero? paul ryan. host: in terms of the idea, who can get more done or who has gotten more done whether it's job creation, the romback report to watching on twitter writes bawl what do you make about

this debate of who is getting more done? guest: to some degree your last two callers encapsulate a lot of the issues that we're seeing on the trail, which is that for republicans the conversation is very heavily about obama and harry reid and the failure of the national democratic agenda they would say. bome's been a bad president. is the message. they -- terrorist attacks are growing. and that's a bad thing. ebola is out of control. for republicans on the campaign, a lot of these campaigns all across the country it's obama is the first message. for the democrats, it's the exact opposite. thafere trying to focus on what's gone on in the state, what has the senator or the capped date done in the state to help the state grow its jobs, to help the economy improve. they don't want to talk about obama at all if they can avoid it. it is almost as if there's two campaigns. there's a republican campaign which is about the national issues there's a democratic campaign about the state issues. the question is which one the

voters here. the advantage the republicans have is that obama gets much more press and the bad things happening in the world get much more press than the good things that might be happening at the state level that the democrats want to emphasize. guest: if i could jump in on that. one thing she noted that i've found remarkable is that the unemployment rate is down and the stock market is soaring. and it's not -- the economy is not an issue on the campaign. bank accounts are growing. 401(k)'s. but we just do not see the economy surfacing in advertising. there's no victory lap in the democratic party that i'm seeing. it's about almost everything but the economy. so it's a fascinating dynamic that in six years how far the country has come and it's just not anything anyone is talking about. host: let's go out to oklahoma where jim's been waiting on our line for republicans. good morning. caller: good morning. your show isn't long enough to

mention every failure obama's been by far the worst president. the most -- horrible thing is he's taxing our military in forward position in combat while he and his husband or wife, whatever you want to call them is spending money overseas. he's aided the muslim brotherhood. and the big problem with our country is the g.o.p. and the dnc, which two people we need to vote for? and until we change the country is screwed. host: how would you change it? caller: the what? host: would you change the primaries? the way candidates are picked? caller: we have more choice than like dancing with stars or something like that. but to pick over 300 million people picking between who is going to be our president we're told two people. plus our government tells us how much they're going to make. we the people should tell the

government how much they're going to make. if they overspend the government they should be fired or in jail. host: some of the frustrations that the caller brings up. guest: if i remember correctly -- and i cannot guarantee that i do. but oklahoma is one of the hardest states for a third-party candidate to get on the ballot for the presidency, which is sort of interesting. and remember this is again a wacky thing about america. our national elections are run by states independently. so who you can vote for for president in oklahoma is not the same list of candidates as who you can vote for president in massachusetts. every state has their own ballot access rules. and so across the country the presidenttial ballot, who you can vote for, is different. and while the democrats and the republicans will be on every ballot in every state, the libertarians, the constitution

party, the green party, pick your other independent or third party, will not be on the ballot in every state. they have to spend time and money litigating this issue to get on those ballots. and so jim is right that we have more choice in the tooth paste aisle than we do in the presidential ballot most years which can imstunning to people. whether that is good or bad is not my department. i don't do good or bad. but i can tell you that it is always been an issue that the rules are different and who you can vote for is different depending on where you live. host: the last caller with a bit of criticism for della volpe speaks about

young voters. --always, your calls "washington journal" on c-span. the 2015 c-span student can video cover tuition is underway. open to all middle and high school students to create a documentary on the theme -- the three branches and you. 200 cash prizes for students and teachers, totaling $100,000. for the list of rules and how to get started, go to studentcam..o org. >> coming, a look at the

strategies in the 2014 campaigns. and the impact of the latino vote in tuesday's elections. >> the senatorial campaign committee and republican senator executive directors discussed the upcoming midterm elections. they talked about the key senate races to watch. this is just over an hour. >> ladies and gentlemen, please welcome the chief white house correspondent for politico. [applause] >> thank you for coming out to this playbook lunch in the middle of the day, five days from election day. welcome to all of you a live

stream land as well. today we are hosting the executive director of the national republican senatorial committee, rob collins. and his counterpart from the democratic central campaign, guy cecil. it is only the second time they have appeared together in the first time in public. we are excited to hear their look ahead to the election day. we will take your question. all of you have cards. we will also be taking them by twitter, #playbook lunch. we would like to thank the bank of america for supporting these events. the playbook event series is about the issues and policies that matter most in washington.

we have had a lot of fun with playbook events on the road throughout this midterm election cycle, thanks to bank of america for making this continued conversation and this partnership possible. so now we would love to welcome guy cecil and rob collins. thanks for doing this. [applause] go right here. >> i'm in the middle. >> thank you. and you can start. tweeting your questions, playbook lunch. this morning, politico -- and by the way, @guycecil and @collins. in today's magazine, the crystal ball was headlined "bet on a gop senate majority." rob collins, how sure are you that he's right? >> we feel pretty good. our campaigns are working hard. at the end of the day, candidates matter. as mitch mcconnell says, this is

the best reruiting class in 30 years. our job, as a committee, we are not on the ballot and we do not get elected. we do not get one vote. our job is to put campaigns in a position to win by recruiting and training them and by investing in them, giving them all of the best strategies and technologies and everything else to win. you know, depending on how you do the math, we have between eight and 10 campaigns on a razor's edge. where we started in february, 2013, the dems were going to take the house and in a place to have a super majority in the senate to where we are right now. we are pleased with our progress. i think if you look -- all the prognosticators say that statistically odds are republicans will take the senate. we feel great where we are. >> guy, if larry and silver are

wrong, and it can happen, why will that be? >> first of all, i missed the headlines that were predicting our super majority last year. but, look, the fact of the matter is that despite the historical trends, that have taken place for the last 100 years in midterm elections where the president's party has lost seats in all but one. despite the fact that there are nine states that are currently within the margin of error in states where the president lost, 8 of those by double-digit, half by 20 points, despite all of that, 8 to 10 races are on a razor's edge, within the margin of error. from our perspective, the question that is going to be put to voters is not how do feel about the president or what you think about what is happening in washington, it is going to be about the two people on the ballot. it is going to be whether or not michelle nunn or david perdue do best fits the voters. >> given the map you have, why are there 8 to 10 races on a razor's edge? >> because we are going against

incumbents. they are purple and blue states. and incumbents are hard to beat. three in the last 10 years have been beat. this race has always been analogous to the 1986 race, what you saw a big republican class come in with reagan. you saw the same class beat the heck out of a bunch of democrats. and in arkansas, georgia, north carolina, south dakota, nevada, they won with 50.8 the entire time. that is how we have framed it up. if you look at how we conducted ourselves, we always planned for a big push right at the end to try and push these races over.

so, incumbents are tough to beat. the good news about our incumbents is that they are all coming back. they all look really good write up every got them all to the primaries for the first time since 2008. we were able to pivot towards picking up open seats and taking out incumbents that were well -funded, has huge name idea advantages. and a ground game that had been put to work before, so we had to build -- we went with a lot of first-time candidates who have done remarkably well. >> let's break it down. the audience, both in person and on the live stream, has been following these races closely. what are the three closest senate races in the country? >> i think georgia would be of

the top of the list, and that has changed a lot over the last five or six weeks. colorado is a close race. those of you that three or think are the closest. >> you have a slightly different list? >> north carolina and new hampshire. 96% of voters are going to vote on election day in new hampshire. we have the momentum, all the movement has been toward scott brown, the same with north carolina. >> by the way, scott brown's movement has surprised everybody, including him. >> movement? no, not to be argumentative -- but we reset after the primary september 9, that the republican base is going to go to the republicans. that race is going to tighten

up. i think he has run the race he predicted, which was it was going to be a short race, hard race. and what he said to me when we were talking about running was, i want to be on the ground shaking hands. he has done an unbelievablejob. >> how do you explain scott brown's durability and closeness? >> i think the most important number in the new hampshire raises 50, which is the number that jeanne shaheen has never been below in the course of our polling of until this morning's track which has are at 52%. and so the reality is that new hampshire is a notoriously fickle state. both house members have flipped back and forth over the last three cycles. we prepared for and expect a close race everywhere, which is why over the last 8 cycles we have won most of the close races everywhere.

it does not surprise us that scott brown would be a 46% or 47%. the problem for scott brown is it is a two-way race and 47% does not do it. >> so you saw nate silver who says republican have a safety four poi-- have a 64.0% chance of winning the majority. the new york times give republicans a moderate edge. the washington post is hedging their bets. they say that republicans have a 93% chance. on the way over here in the cab, i got an e-mail from your president said that guy cecil is cautiously optimistic about the elections. why? >> i would offer for other protections that nate silver mad

e. >> are you going to go negative on nate silver? >> no, i'm going to go factual. there was a 7% chance that -- a 13% that jon tester was going to win. a 30% chance that harry reid was going to win. all of those four people won. it is not to say that nate silve r is going to be wrong, but we are on a razor's edge in terms of who is going to hold the majority. you do not have to be wrong and 10 races to make a difference. you have to be wrong in one or two races. what we know is that in the past 10 races in the cycle, we are within the margin of error in all of those on either side. quite this is a jump all

question. neither of you may buzz in an answer first. today's column "against the grain," he said," president obama is costing democrats control of the senate." >> false, i had to let him go first on that one. i'm glad to jump ball on that one. i appreciate his perspective. josh also predicted that teri lynn lang would be in a margin of error race. so i just think that, look, all these prognostications are better off when the election is over. let me say one other thing about the president. this is not about barack obama

personally. ronald reagan lost seats. george w. bush lost seats. every president in her second midterm is had the challenges this president has. we are not going to nationalize the election and play on the terrain of the republican party. that is why in north carolina, the number two issue among voters is education. why? because we have made it about education, so i do think that a bit of the hyperbole around the president is overplayed. >> has president obama done enough to help senate democrats? >> he has done everything we asked for. >> nothing. >> he has raised $25 million for

senate democrats. he has made available his entire data operation, the best in the country. he has made available every volunteer. just to look at things from the prism of whether or not the present happened to stop at a restaurant in a media market as the only measurement by which he is judged, i think is a pretty simplistic way of looking at things. >> what are you going to say? to be serious for a second, there is a pretty bearish out l ook, understanding that it is not about the president, but to what degree is that part of the presidency? >> it isn't a can of of a map

that is difficult for the democrats regardless of who the president is. we are dealing with states like arkansas, alaska, north carolina, louisiana, many of which the senate candidate is the only democrat elected statewide. or is the only democrat elected to congress. so i think from our perspective, it is less about identifying and isolating the president as the number one issue and recognizing what the facts are, that irrespective of who the president is we are dealing with a set of states that are more republican than they are democrat. that is the challenge we have to overcome. >> just to set our pace because a lot of people here in the audience who are going to be writing stories, doing commentary on election night. rob, how hopeful has the president been to your candidates? -- how helpful has a president been to your candidates? >> the challenges democrats of had is that they have a president with 42% approval. >> let's talk about your candidates.

>> how has the president or the environment help to? >> so the challenge you have is -- we have a president who your baseline is an unpopular president. the president is under 50% ,then you look at the past summer we have had. obamacare rollout. then a summer of the border crisis. ukraine, syria, isis. and then you see the ebola, where it is not me speaking. if you look at the polling, the president has not gone high marks on foreign policy p has the worst job approval. when the president gets polled nationally with job approval, his job approval is six points worse. how does that help our candidates? it'll help us recruit. help us to talk to people and say there is an opportunity to

serve and win. and there is an opportunity to talk to the amerco people and say that there is an alternative, there is a different direction -- to talk to the american people and say that there is an alternative, there is a different direction. this midterm is about where we are right now. the american people have lost confidence in the economy by six points. they feel we are on the wrong track. they feel this president has not led and the right way. it has nothing do with his personal approval. it has everything to do with his job approval. our candidates are comfortable talking about that. >> how much of a difference has ebola made? >> the one thing i wanted react that americans think

that the president has handled ebola well. >> it has contributed to an extreme on ease. >> i think you are isolating individual issues. if we go back to the v.a. or to ukraine, there are dozen commentators saying this is the issue that is going to matter most in this election. i think that context through which to look at this is that in north carolina, we are going to spend between the two parties over $100 million. in alaska, one congressional district, $55 million. so the ability to break through in every other commercial, was a paid advertising for the campaign is overstating. that is why you go back to north carolina. >> let's talk about georgia. david produce unfavorable rating has risen by 15 points. in georgia, it is a contest between the two people on the ballot. it goes back to our we

nationalizing the election? it is clear that the republicans want to nationalize it. it is clear that the democrats want to make it about the two candidates on the ballot. that is the question over the next five days, three weeks, two months, we will have an answer. >> i would counter that by saying that in february 2013, i talked to a group of reporters and said we are going to localize the races. we have. tom cotton talking about social security and veterans. dan sullivan talking about replenishing the teacher fund. we have -- we are not going to make the mistake in 2010 and 2012, where candidates were being attacked for their local fire department and the response was obamacare. we have invested a lot of money not only in positive ads, and is has shown numerically, but also talking about local issues. we have framed it through the prism of a group of incumbents voting with the president. an unpopular president over 90% of the time. but we have talked about local issues. that narrative is not accurate. >> you all work together. which state is the biggest surprise?

>> georgia. at the point we met last time, we were down seven or eight points. today, we are up three points, 47%. we have 8.5% or 9% undecided. >> why has the -- >> because we have done the opposite of what the republicans have done. we have localize the election. when you look at the case he made and what voters are seeing, they are coming to terms with david purdue's record. the biggest issue is outsourcing. also, david purdue is probably the worst republican candidate of the cycle. for a candidate to stand at a podium -- >> worse than senator roberts? >> close call. [laughter] worst nonincumbent. >> there are plenty of bad democratic candidates, don't worry. >> is not often that a candidate says i was only sued by 2000 women for gender dissemination. by most measures, that would be seen as being sued by a lot of women. [laughter] so i think it is a combination of the fact that purdue has been a woefully inadequate candidate.

michelle nunn is the single best candidate we have this cycle as a challenger. >> who's the worst democratic candidate? >> that's a good question. so many. >> who has underperformed and been weaker than you expect? >> kay hagan. i thought she has hid behind a big pile of money. she has not been out with her voters. missing a debate that was covered by the top three political journalists was a mistake. the denver post endorsing cory gardner. there is a clearly striking change from endorsing democrats. endorsements, you have to be cautious not to overthink them. it is an indication of a campaign that is a little off. >> you know colorado better than anyone in this room. technically a purple state but many are thinking of it as a blue state. why has he done so well? >> because it is a purple state. republicans won almost every statewide office. they defeated a sitting democratic congressman. most of what happened under the aiken looper and bennett was republican. in a state like colorado or iowa, purple states would be competitive. that has been true in the case.

the one thing i think, and this is a misperception, is that mark udall has spent all his time talking about choice and contraception. 50% of his as have not talked about choice and contraception. i remember in 2010, we had a dozen editorials written against us that we were making choice and contraception a big issue. there was no way republicans were ever going to roll back choice and reproductive rights. we have seen over the course of time that they have done exactly that. this idea that somehow talking about choice and contraception is a disqualifier, i'm trying to think of a nice word i can say. it shows a misunderstanding, especially, of women in suburban colorado. who see it not just as a social issue but economic issue. >> who all agree are the key to the election. >> absolutely. >> they are the key. the war on women they have tried to nationalize has not worked. in the latest polling, they have a seven point advantage. it is not enough. they have turned off voters. they should have been talking about the economy. instead, they pivoted into the single issue and it has not

worked and turned off people. >> everyone in the room and the live stream is a pundit. some get paid for it. the others are volunteers. everybody here has a conversation in their circle of influence. a little pundint prep here. on election night, what is the state we can watch for how the night will go? >> new hampshire, north carolina is a go for us. obama had many paths to get to the 280 -- we have a lot of paths toet the majority. some in runoff scenarios. the east coast states will post early. if we do well in one vote, keep it tight, and then looking to the west to alaska.

we will not get returns until 1:00 or 2:00. that is what we are looking at. >> do agree that new hampshire and north carolina are bellwethers? >> i would add georgia in their, iowa. alaska, the reality is in rural parts the state, in some cases the ballots will not be cast for four or five days. we are spending a lot of time preparing for a runoff and recounts. just to be prepared. those two states, georgia and iowa, probably the ones that will probably give you a good impression of what is going to happen. >> if republicans take the majority, we will know that when? >> i have predicted election night, meaning my election night, before i go to bed. i feel good about where we are. how the races are closing. the momentum and enthusiasm.

how the independents are breaking. key constituencies. they rely on either through early voting or just in polling, they are not where they need to be. i think election night, we could have not an early night but a majority. >> the runoff in louisiana, virtually certain. >> i think it is most likely. yes. >> you think likely? >> yes. >> georgia? >> there is a path for us to get to 50. i am pretty confident that david perdue will not hit 50 on election night. >> you agree, likely runoffs in both? >> there are more scenarios. there are more polls that say we are up. >> actually one of the last seven. that sounds like most.

>> there have been five public polls that have perdue up. >> we will check on that. >> i guess i would say this. we had a dip in the polls during the outsourcing debate. it is what it is. it tightened up. now we are seeing david perdue nudge back up. it is a republican state. the early voting has not been where it needs to be for the democrats. there is a path for david to hit 50. we are prepared for both scenarios. we will be to finance it. >> how heavily do the national parties play in that? somebody told me, between the two sides, a runoff could be $35 million. >> i think 35 million is a conservative estimate. when you think about 55 million

in alaska, georgia is a large state. atlanta is a big media market. you have five media markets in louisiana. already, we are already at $10 million in television reservations in louisiana. we haven't even gotten to election day yet. >> while we are on that, you think each of them could be 50 million? >> between $35 million and $45 million. >> if the majority is on the line, sure. >> journalists will have a good time, spending their thanksgiving and christmas in atlanta and new orleans. >> and new year's. >> and new year's. on the issue of early voting, i was looking at the north carolina numbers. the fact of the matter is the margin between democrats and republicans in early votes right now is almost 17%. that is a larger margin between democrats and republicans than the last president election. when you look at iowa, the largest number of individual

voters are actually democratic gop voters who did not vote in 2010. 75% of republican votes are folks who voted. in a number of places, we have seen a change in the makeup of the early vote. in almost every case, to benefit democrats. >> we are going to come to jonathan in a second. how will the undercount of hispanic voters in the polls play out? >> that has been one of the primary challenges in colorado. in 2010, there were five or six polls that showed ken buck was winning among hispanics. or that michael bennet's lead was within 10 points. we went on to win. i think hispanics in colorado, native alaskans are also undercounted in alaska. it could play a large role in either election. >> in the new york times, polls

are likely to undercount democrats. it is easier for pollsters to reach for voters who lean republican. you're clearly feeling good. do you worry about polling data? any flashbacks to 2012? >> we have been really tough on our pollsters. the polling community has changed the mix and technology they are using. it has given us a more, richer mix of polling. we are trying to give you a more three-dimensional look. you always question. that is the nature of any successful venture. we are always questioning, but also after 2012, how can you not? after 2012, we learned a lot of lessons. if anything, i feel good about where we are.

we are seeing a preponderance of polls that favor our worldview. we are not fooling ourselves and saying, our polling is the right one and their polling is wrong. we are constantly checking and looking at the mix. and are we waiting or did we actually speak to them? are we extrapolating based on a few interviews? it is time-consuming and more expensive and the pollsters do not like it, but that is the challenge we face in becoming a smarter party after 2012. the only signs you have in a campaign is a poll. >> jonathan? >> wanted to ask about kansas. >> no south dakota question?

>> reince preibus said it is an impossibility that he will caucus with republicans if he wins in kansas. so, my question is whether or not you agree with that and are republicans ruling out they would go to him the day after the election and try to convince him to caucus with them? i know you don't have a candidate in kansas -- how do you assess that race? >> republican senators do not caucus with private citizens. it would be hard to understand how that can happen. all the movement has been towards roberts. public polling has this tie. we have ourselves up, where we need to be. the roberts campaign released an ad, and endorsement ad by the popular football coach. we feel good. the kansas state party is high functioning.

we have a great ground game. pat roberts is going to win. >> i asked you hypothetically. i know we have engaged in hypotheticals. >> i love hypotheticals. >> if he wins, are you saying republicans will not go to him and say, try to convince him? >> i am on the political side of the equation. i will leave that to the policy equation. >> it's possible? >> the leadership will try to have as many voices at the table supporting republican policies. if that is part of the equation, it is part of the equation. those are decisions made in the great big white building in the middle of the city, not where i live. >> either of you may buzz in. excuse me, go ahead. >> i think the leader will try

to get him to join the republicans. the fact of the matter is, we do not have a candidate. we are not polling in the race. we are not investing in the race. we see the same polls as everyone else, which is it is a jump ball. i will expect that it will go until election day. >> either of you may buzz in. which of you has the technology edge in this election? >> listen, voter vault has been a tremendous asset. it was created in 2002. it provides great historical data. it got a little threadbare. the movement itself inside and outside the party structure has invested over $50 million in data. we don't have the real-time application we had in 2012. i think we have made massive

strides and it has worked well. beta-test in some mayoral races, florida 13, where we went head to head with the democrat technology and turnout machine. it performed well. the proof will be in the pudding on how we do tuesday and the runoffs. but based on the cultural changes, in which we have the data, i think that has been an unbelievable change. i joked it is hard to turn an elephant. you have to smack him hard. we got smacked hard and we turned him. >> you are turning? >> we are turning. do we catch up? i don't know. can you catch up to something built over the course of the obama presidency? we are going to have to find out. a massive investment and cultural change.

really make it a priority. early returns show we are doing all right. >> what is possible in the technology area that was not possible in 2012? >> one of the things we decided early was we were going to try to apply lessons learned both in senate races in the presidential race. that is why, in addition to bringing on field and technology folks, we also brought on board the president's analysts team. we brought on the presidents deputy campaign manager. to serve as advisors for our field director. the real-time application, i think, -- talking a couple of days ago. our ability to go in and look at, from my office, the organizer in the arctic circle office. to see whether the doors have

been knocked on, the goals have been met. to look at the flake rate of volunteers. >> what is the flake rate? >> that would be the number of volunteers who sign up but do not show up. that allows us to adjust the total number we need. also on the early vote piece. i think maybe four or five days ago, the rnc put out a huge press release the first time in history that republicans have passed democrats for early voting in iowa. they have been silenced since then. since then, everyone of those days we have outpaced them in both requests and returns. we have about a 35,000 vote lead. we are looking at unaffiliated voters. which are most likely to vote for different candidates. the real-time application of the data, the ability of us and