what does the head of the supreme national security council say? these are the guys that run iran. rouhani doesn't really run the place. these guys do. i kind of agree with john here. i think they will be modestly positive, encouraged by this. those are the rainmakers. let's see what they do. mr. limbert: don't be surprised. i haven't seen the friday prayers or listened to them today, but don't be surprised to be here some traditional anti-american rhetoric coming out of that. that's not going to go. the slogans, the rest of it, those are not going to go away.

ms. slavin: another question? >> i want to ask the other side my question and that is in this country there will be opposition, vocal opposition. if you want to defeat this agreement by june 30, what do you think that opposition will do? what is the opposition likely to do to defeat this agreement? ms. slavin: anybody want to touch that? we don't want to give them ideas. judging from what is coming out of some of these statements, what do you think their tactics will be? ms. davenport: following the lines that the deal isn't good

enough. when you look at places where we don't have much detail and poke holes in what has been accomplished. they said there is still not necessarily a clear path forward after the 10-year limitations end, that iran could transition to enriched uranium. what the criticisms ignore is what the director of national intelligence had said about iran's nuclear program, that the decision to pursue nuclear weapons has been guided by a cost-benefit analysis.

if the deal is based properly to be mutually reinforcing and a romney sees a much higher benefit from moving forward, the presumption they intend to exploit any weakness becomes far less of a probability. i think opposition will try to poke holes aware we don't have the full details of the agreement yet but it ignores these very strong arguments that around sees this deal in its best interest and if that cost-benefit analysis holds true, they will continue to move forward. mr. lambert: you could always count on the old resident to say something provocative or outrageous that would make it easy. now, it is harder. what do you focus on? maybe you focus on what some of these groups have said, which they keep talking about how bad the islamic republic is. they say how all of the talking about all the terrible things it has done and all of the terrible things it does -- but the problem -- that is known. that is not new. we made a policy decision rightly or wrongly to say, we put that aside for a moment. the human rights violations, the terrorism, and focus on this particular issue. the debate could be, was at the right thing to do? can you make any agreement with a state that has done the things the islamic republic has done? ms. slavin: john bolton has said he thinks that more sanctions are not the answer and obviously diplomacy is not the answer, we should just go and bomb the place, right? he sets up a very stark choice. the white house is also been trying to set up that.

they say it is a deal, a negotiated deal, where iran resumes its program and eventually we have the military option. i don't believe it is that binary but john bolton believe steve. mr. kupchan: iran's economy is teetering. we could have gotten a better deal, we should seek a better deal. i run is going through a time of their low growth but growth of reduced inflation. it is very fragile. the corporate side of the economy is a mess. there is something to that. i think the main point is that the opponents of the deal are vastly in worse shape this morning than they were yesterday. once you have got a bunch of numbers in front of opponents of a deal, they get really scared. remember menendez -- 59 votes. he was almost in a place to get the majority. then, senators said, i will not sponsor that. we have seen this. i think these guys will have a tough time. ms. slavin: any other questions? i can point out about sanctions, a lot of critics say we can impose more sanctions, make them bleed more, but the united states might be able to impose more sanctions but the rest of international community will not follow us now, certainly not while there is a potential deal. the europeans are eager to get back into the iranian market. asians are eager to be able to buy iranian oil again. there maybe some in the energy industry that may be worried about the impact on oil prices. it is a fantasy, i think, on the part of republicans in congress to think they can somehow increase the pressure on iran at a time when these negotiations are so far advanced. mr. kupchan: absolutely.

mr. lambert: maybe what the opponents need to do is to somehow break that narrative of this agreement or war. it is very clear that this presidents big positive is to keep us out of a war in the middle east. if opposing this agreement will lead to war in the middle east that is not a strong argument. they have to somehow make this argument that there is a third way, another way, and it is somehow better. so far, i have not seen them make that argument very effectively. ms. slavin: let's go back to the question about what will happen in internal iranian dynamics. a friend of mine, a colleague, is still in joe, the longest of any iranian american journalist. six months now? there are two other iranian americans that have been held for a long time. other iranian political prisoners, some have been let go but there are still others in joe. john, what do think will happen on the humans rights front? i have are different interpretations -- heard different interpretations. mr. lambert: the best explanation that i have heard is that this is all part of the power struggle. those in charge of the security services want to flexed their muscles and show that all of this -- all of these smiles and handshakes have not changed the fact that we are dealing with an enemy and we are going to treat these people as enemies and it is a reminder of who is in charge. the same thing happened under a previous president. there were these serial murders going on in tehran of intellectuals, translators anyone they did not like. the president and his ministers, so-called government, were powerless. they cannot do anything to stop it.

the best i can tell is that it is a test of wills between the two sides. poor jason. a wonderful reporter, a wonderful young man. he is unfortunately the victim as are some of these other people. that, again, is one of those issues that we should be and have been discussing with the iranians and not let them off the hook on these things and i understand that when kerry and zerif met one-on-one, these came up. ms. slavin: there are important elections coming up, which choose the next supreme leaders. those are coming up in february of 2016. on of the interesting questions for analysts is what will this nuclear deal, assuming it is completed, for reformists? there are some who are still in the system and a lot of function. there are two presidential candidates from 2009 who are still under house arrest. are these guys ever going to see the light of day or do they have to wait? mr. kupchan: i think there's a connection between what we are seeing now and domestic issues. romani has been very weak on everything but the nuclear issue. three or four of his ministers of higher education were rejected. he has lost a lot of internet cases of the judiciary. not succeeding and widening social freedom space. it is extraordinarily likely an idea that if there is a final deal, i think that guarantees nothing but makes it more likely that we will see slow, hard-fought progress in other areas.

it has been startled -- stifled by the hardliners. ms. slavin: a couple of things have improved. book publishing. there are more books published in iran. a number of professors have been kicked out of their professors they have come back. i compare it to bears coming out of hibernation. a lot of these people who were very private -- prominent have come back into circulation and can be quoted by the western press and not have to be worried about being thrown in prison. they are small things. there is a newspaper called shark which would have been there and - banned but it came back and is an important voice

for the reform movement. you have to look for these small victories there as well. any other questions? over here. >> sputnik international news. i would like it if the panel could discuss a little more what sanctions relief will look like and also as far as even possible weapon sales. ms. slavin: there was a report this morning the russians will now sell the s3 hundreds. i don't think so. that kind of technology will remain in place. mr. kupchan: it is clear the plan is to lift the resolution and replace it with a new one that prohibits the export of illicit material to iran. i think one of the great unwritten stories is that the russians have been arguably the most innovative and constructive

member of the beef i plus one -- b5 plus one. we need to factor that in. these tensions relief -- the sanctions relief -- we don't know. what the iranians want up front is oil back on the market, a reconnection of some major banks. they want access to foreign reserves, about $110 billion. i guess they will get a lot about up front. what they will not get up front -- a lot of that up front. anything that is reversible. you can always take oil back off. you can relock reserves. if you have large american companies going in, if you start to prohibit fdi and you are nailing an american company, that is not what we want. sanctions will focus in the first three years on very economically, meaningful provisions of money and oil. but, not on quick infusions of foreign direct investment. ms. slavin: i would draw your attention to two papers we published last year on how sanctions will be used.

iranians are looking for relief from the secondary sections, which -- sanctions. a few companies will be the last of the party. i wanted to ask you about the contribution of the secretary. i was on a conference call with a number of white house officials yesterday evening wear one of these unnamed senior administration officials talked about how over the course of the last few days, their hopes would rise and dash. somehow, they did not get there. the senior administration official talked about the technical creativity of the secretary saving the day at the last minute. i don't know what the particular hitch was. i assume my colleagues are kind to figure out exactly what the senior administration thought of but we know the secretary had a mary layer -- an extraordinary relationship with an m.i.t. graduate. ms. davenport: i heard the secretary -- the involvement of the secretary in the department of energy from the beginning of these negotiations, even though they have been less visible, has been quite important because he and

the department of energy will be of extremely important technical validation for this. the department of energy has played a critical role in analyzing money of the proposals when it comes -- many of the proposals. looking at the research and development and making that available to the public, that level of expertise. i think it certainly will be helpful. as much as there is a political component to this, i think it really did come down to politicians being able to make very difficult and painful concessions. ensuring the technical details are in place is extremely important. you see some of that innovation laid out in this agreement allowing centrifuges to operate but in a way that ensures they are not enriching uranium. a dedicated channel that will allow around technology it may need for its program but do them -- to ensure it is not impose a threat. it is extremely important here and the relationships you develop with his counterparts, he added to that. we do have a little bit of a clear picture of where the un security council sanctions are going. i would be pleased to see the lifting of those sanctions will be tied to iran completing the investigation into past weaponization work these matters will not be lifted until the agency completes that investigation and they ensure

the program is entirely peaceful. those security council measures to the investigation will make incentives to iran. originally, their file is different to the security council because it was not cooperating with the agency. laying out those parameters is key and i was glad to see agreement and that in the white house. ms. slavin: i did want to mention another point. there's also going to be nuclear cooperation, civilian nuclear cooperation between the international community and iran for the first time. because iran needs other technology that will -- they did not mention the reactor. a have a lot of second-rate, old technology that they use for civilian purposes and this opens the possibility they were going to renovate best and do it in a safe way for the iranian people and more proliferation proof. ms. davenport: some of them as vital cooperation we will see will probably have to do with the reactor. that is there so operating nuclear power reactor run by the russians.

there are concerns about the safety of that reactor particularly where it is located in relation with our earthquake faults. i hope that happens early on in agreement with the other measures you mentioned cooperation on the provision of water reactors will be important because iran have placed a great deal of emphasis on producing its own medical isotopes. i think you can add to these insurances that the nuclear program is progressing in a peaceful directory and not in a way that could be used down the road for weapons development. mr. lambert: an interesting story indicative of me of the difficulty of this relationship and also perhaps how far we have come according to my iranian friends, it was obsolete when they bought it in the 70's it was finally completed 40 years later.

40 years later, again, my iranian friends, tell me it should have been scrapped long ago, but for reasons of national pride, they completed it. when they did, the then secretary of state heller clinton was asked, what do you think about this. she said, we are not concerned. we know what this is, we know the safeguards involved, we know what this does, and is it is not an issue concern to us. then, they went back to an iranian official, maybe barbara you remember who it was, i don't.

they asked him, what do you think about the secretary statement? his comment was, we are not sure what it is, but we know there is a trick there somewhere. [laughter] we know she is up to something. why would the american administration make a seemingly friendly statement like that? there had to be a trick behind it. that was the environment that we have been operating in for 35 years. maybe, just maybe, what we are seeing now is a chance of breaking down those particular walls of mistrust.

ms. slavin: i think you get the last question. wait for microphone. >> thank you. one of the reasons that iran was reluctant to do this deal is they were concerned that iranians would lose more.

if we do have a deal in june what are the expectations, and given the support, will the government be in a position to deliver on those? ms. slavin: that is a fabulous question. i think the sanctions release will happen slowly. i'm not sure about the exact sequenceing, but officials are clear that i iran have to do many things before they get relief. they have to do something about the esto stockpil, they have to move up the centrifuges before they see any relief. it will be slow. already, i'm sure, i don't think the iranian -- well, the currency traders are obviously operating today -- i'm less interested in what they have to say that the comparison of the

real to the dollar. i would bet the iranian stock market will go up. i would bet that eggs pgi iranians are going to go home, look around, and see, what can i buy for cheap. -- expatriot iranians are going to go home, look around, and see, what can i buy for cheap. maybe put money away. the chinese the diaspora started returning after normalized relations as with the united states. a lot of good things can happen. companies have gone to iran on exploratory missions. now, those memorandums will be signed. also, just psychologically. this is a huge shot in the arm for iranian people.

i think we have the keep that in mind as we look at this. this is not just about centrifuges, and you know, heavywater reactors. this is about human beings and a country with amazing potential that has really been squelched for all of these years. for that reason alone, we should hope that things go well. i think that can be the last word, unless someone else wants to add on. mr. limbert: there is a danger that this could be oversold, and people think, now the sanctions will be lifted, and everything will be fine. the story that the iranian government has presented very often is that our economic problems are the result of the sanctions. well, they might be, some of them, but there's also many people who say -- analysts who say, no, it is the result of their own mismanagement of the economy.

what happens when the sanctions go and the economic problems are not solved because mismanagement is still there. it is much easier to blame your troubles on what outsiders have done to you then your own mismanagement which has been a chronic problem. ms. slavin: thank you so much for coming out today and please follow us on twitter and come and see us at our next events. we will be very active in the coming months on this issue. thank you. [applause] >> next, live, your calls and

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