i'm joined in the studio by o'donnell, we will look at the exact details later, but joined by the former cabinet secretary. you must slightly pity your successor. he is a couple kidded situation. that exit poll has -- if we are in the world where the conservatives are clearly in a dominant position and david kamman looks to have won enough seats to get there either he could run a minority or think about getting together with what remains of the liberal democrats. anchor: this is one of those difficult nights to unpick. if the liberal democrats are on 10 they don't know what they

will feel when they wake up tomorrow morning, what will they want to do. potentially the tories might go over the line with a dup. if david kamman -- cameron can't get the numbers that is still presumably legitimate in your eyes. it's about the numbers. guest: it's about who commands confidence of the house of commons, who can get a majority, who can get over that 323 number. if that is the case for conservatives -- and if they can't get there, we get into a scenario where labor --labour plus other parties would try to work that through. then you might get ed miliband as prime minister. of those exit poll numbers are correct, that looks like a very unlikely scenario at the moment. anchor: it would not take an

awful lot of movement in the figures. guest: that lib dem number is way outside what people were expecting, s&p numbers 58, could not have gone much higher, one more. anchor: we will be speculating about who the sole survivor is. i remember you as the days of the john major government coming to an end. it is kabul dictated isn't it having a small majority or no majority at all? guest: that night in 1992 was when we had the biggest ever error in a sit hole straight -- exhit polls. -- exit polls. anchor: that was a difficult period for the government of

getting business done, wasn't it? guest: were you don't have single majority, you have various options for coalition, provided the last government which is something that allowed them to carry on for four or five years but the conservative lib dems had a clear and large majority in the house of commons. if you're not in a situation where you have a large majority, where you have lots of smaller deals, it is more difficult you govern in a different way, you look to try to get the kinds of things you want to do done. getting things through the house of commons can be difficult, and expensive. a lot of the requests that come to you are requests that cost you money. anchor: we will come back to that. let's go to nina in the opinion room. nina: i'm joined by facebook's

teletext specialist. -- politics specialist. we will go behind the labour holds. what was going on? you have been tracking the conversation from january until yesterday. linda: that's right. we have been looking at the conversations people are having around the issues and the parties since january. in the constituency just called 45% of that conversation dominated around ukip. these are the conversations that real people in the u.k. are having in this constituency at home, with their friends families, out at restaurants with colleagues. this is not reflective of what the press is talking about. nina: we know they are talking about ukip.

is everyone having facebook conversations -- have they gone to bed already? guest: within two minutes of the polls closing we saw the conversation on facebook doubling. within a few minutes of the first to situate see being announced, that number doubled again -- constituency being announced, the number doubled again. nina: the talk of ukip in the north right now. i'm with the author of the seminal text, and a professor from king's college london. thank you both for talking to me. it looks like from the results we have had in from sunderland the labor voters heading to ukip which is crucial for ukip, isn't it? guest: this is what we argued last year, that the rift facing labour it would find itself

struggling to get that come back in places where ukip was emerging as an alternative to labour. we're seeing an increase in ukip's vote share, 60%, which would suggest in some of these other seats we are likely to see ukip having a strong performance at this election. this was coming for a long time for the labour party. nina: why are we seeing the rise of ukip? guest: a large part of the country believe themselves to be disenfranchised. they do not think that any of the three major parties represent their views. to some extent, gay marriage. i think the ukip phenomenon bears some relationship to the snp phenomenon in scotland.

that is a result -- revolt of the this and franchised. -- of the disenfranchised. nina: we were not expecting the numbers we have seen in the exit poll, but you are treating those with great caution this evening. guest: the exit poll would indicate tory minority government, which would be moderately comfortable for five years. its main problem would be europe. i think the exit poll should be treated with caution. we have seen huge amounts of speculation and a small amount of fact. the swing from the conservatives to labour in the first seats we saw was around 4%. that was right across in wales. that is slightly better for labour than the exit poll would indicate. we've got to be careful. the exit polls goes against the opinion polls. some will have egg on their

face. we don't have enough facts to go on. people are speculating hugely. nina: can we speculate a bit more? you famously talked to david cameron. what should he do in this position if those numbers are correct? should he go with the minority government or try and get a deal again with the liberal democrats? guest: i suspect to deal with the liberal democrats isn't on, and i suspect the liberal democrats would not be interested in it either. if the exit poll is right, they have been so reduced in numbers that they will want to lick their wounds and reconsider their strategy. if david cameron would continue, he would be difficult for the parties to combine together to get rid of him and he might have some sort of agreement for the democratic unionists in northern ireland, who are the strong unionists as david

cameron, who is leader of the conservative and unionist party. at not think it much practice he would have difficulty governing for five years. if the poll is right, he's the first prime minister to gain seats since margaret thatcher in 1983. it's a great triumph for him. nina: william and matthew, hope to speak to you later on. tom: we are joined by the former labour secretary. david brockett, we try to unpick the situation. it's not particularly easy. what do you make of the figures the exit poll has produced? guest: i fear they may be close to being right for several reasons. one obviously, then a colleagues who we have lost in scotland. -- the number of colleagues we have lost in scotland. either the tories winning an avalanche, or the tsunamis in

scotland bounce out -- balance out in a way i do not think polls have been showing previously. obviously if we were 20 up from the predictions and they were 20 down, he would be in a different ballgame. we would be back to a minority administration getting the queen's speech through with the support of the parties. if we are not, david cameron may tomorrow morning be looking triumphant. in getting business through the house, he shouldn't be. we have a working majority over 70, even over controversial things like the wretched health act they pushed through, the lib dems are with them. now they have eliminated substantially the lib dems but have ended up without a majority in parliament. that will be bad in terms of running the country but if i

wasn't so deeply involved in it and so committed to my colleagues, it would be deeply fascinating. tom: deeply fascinating it may be. it's hard to imagine a more complex hand. you have watched the liberal democrats over many years. if they do end up being massacred in this way, do you think it's conceivable they would support the tory party and a coalition? would they want to abstain? what do you assess their attitude is likely to be? guest: i'm not a good person to second-guess the minds of liberal democrats because i've never fully understood them. it would be unthinkable for the liberal democrats to even think once never mind twice about going into coalition with the conservatives. they are massacred because they did go into coalition.

they have been blamed for the worst things and got very the credit for the effort they did put on on a more liberal basis. some of them sit on their hands for a queen's speech, which would be -- it would be a live then -- lib dem thing to do. we can't be sure what the snp's turn up will be. if this is true and the opinion polls are wrong and the exit poll is right are we in a situation where people panicked where the politics of fear and greed have shone through, but also the politics of worry about a situation that people thought was going to end up with the snp holding the ring? very clever, but very dangerous tactics by david cameron. he now tries to rely on the

democratic unionist party from ireland. he may have stuffed down his nose. that is rather graphic. i'm not happy, as you understand. i see fantastically good long-standing colleagues losing their seats, and people who have worked their guts out not winning because of a combination of measures, even though the campaign on the ground was a good one. in 1987 we ran a very good campaign. we had a contributor earlier who ran it, and we were hammered. anchor: is there a government here at the end of this discussion? can we wake up tomorrow and think we will have a government? guest: the prime minister remains the prime minister constitutionally, so there is a government. tom: realistic government that will last more than five minutes? guest: david is right that what

was the strength of the last time was a coalition of a large majority in the house of commons. this time, given the lib dems -- if the exit poll is right -- have come down so much, even if you add them with the number for the conservatives, you barely get across the line. they may choose not to go into coalition. david cameron is looking to see which other groupings can he put together. dup is an obvious place to look, and some others. it is a minority government, it might be a vote by vote basis. it is going to be more difficult for him, even though he's got more seats. there are lots and lots of people against him in this house. tom: do you think it will last five minutes? the next parliament act makes having another election collocated -- mixed parliament act makes having another election complicated.

the obvious way it would probably happen is if labour and the tories got together and said this is not working, we need another election. guest: it may be possible after a period of time that this would happen, people would say we are going nowhere in this parliament, which we weren't. people were kicking their feet around the place. i would have advocated had this result been reversed tonight a very different type of politics, where we reached out to people we engaged, we spoke to people who had not voted for us, we try to --tried to win what ed miliband called a one nation approach. it may not be possible to do that, but i do think if the conservatives go in for the kind of thing they were predicting this week, which is change the boundaries, stop people from outside england voting on key bills, in other words, fix the

system for your party, i hope there will be a majority against that in the house of commons. anchor: do you think these figures, if they're correct, ed miliband survives as the leader of the party? guest: firstly we need to see the reality on the ground. secondly, we need to breathe. somebody was talking earlier about predicting ed miliband will have gone within 24 hours. i hope not. we should take our time, licked our wounds if we have to, and we should think seriously. if we have not lost this election, we lost in 2010. we failed to nail the lie that labour would be responsible for the global meltdown and everything that happened in the u.s., france, greece, po rtugal, was labour's fault.

such nonsense, but the coalition got away with peddling that. i'm a going to think about avoiding a situation where we rush into something that might damage of us in the long time -- term? tom: julie has a summary. julie: the first results have gone to labour but our exit poll predicts the conservatives will win the most seats but won't have enough for majority. our poll puts the tories on 316, labour way behind on 239, the lib dems will end the night on 10, ukip and the green party will have two each, the snp forecast to have 58 seats out of 59 in scotland. senior figures have been giving their reaction. >> if those figures are anything

like correct, he will be clear that labour will have lost. -- it will be clear that labour will have lost. that is the clear picture that will come out. it suggests a failure for the coalition government. if the exit polls are right, what it shows is that the coalition led by david cameron has more or less lost its majority, in which case we will have to see whether the new house of commons will give david cameron a majority. reporter: nicola sturgeon tweeted, i would treat the exit poll with huge caution. i'm hoping for a good night, but i think 58 seats is unlikely. the lib dems say the predictive figures do not match up to what

they have been hearing. >> i think we will have to wait. i would agree that on the figures we have got, this is very disappointing. i have been told it's not consistent with the kinds of intelligence the high office was getting back. reporter: sir campbell speaking a few minutes ago. tom: mark, suddenly the dup is the most important political party in england potentially. what is the reaction to the events unfolding by the mp's? reporter: they are going to say this will come as no prize. they have fought this election campaign suggesting that they could be the kingmakers in a future coalition government. the deputy leader of the party has just arrived here in belfast.

the party is quietly confident of taking 729 seats -- 7 to 9 seats tonight. the dup will find themselves possibly in a position where there will be intense negotiations to see what kind of an agreement can be reached there. it terms of what they're looking for throughout this election they did publish a wish list. they were going into a coalition government. here is what they wanted. they wanted an immediate referendum in europe, they wanted a minimum 2% gdp spending on defense, and they want the abolition of the bedroom tax. they want other things like a commission on the union, and it want to see real financial agreements put in place for northern ireland.

our wish list is going to become the focus. tom: none of those things unfazed value would necessarily be a problem for the tory party. they have always given the impression to me that they would not be interested in formal coalitions. do you think they might go with the coalition? what is the most realistic arrangement that might emerge from any talks? reporter: i think you hit the nail on the head. they have said they are not interested necessarily in forming a coalition government. they also said that they will be quite happy to work with david cameron or the liberal leader, ed miliband. they have held their cards close to their chest.

they are remaining very tightlipped this evening. not giving away too much, waiting on those -- how many mp's returned to westminster. at the local level, what they have said throughout is what is most important for them is maintaining the position within the united kingdom strengthening the union, but also getting a better deal for northern ireland. what has been said over the last number of weeks -- the financial trickery that northern ireland finds itself in, they will probably be pushing for more money. tom: we are expecting results from you in about an hour and a bit. thank you for talking to us. colin and jane, let's breathe a bit and take stock of where we are. maybe we can have a look at the overall summary of prediction of

what we think we are heading for. we have been trying in the last hour or two, the method that is not really add up, one feels. jane: let's look at this graph for a second or look at an anti-austerity voting bloc. i'm not saying an anti-austerity coalition. let's look at how difficult it could be for the conservatives to pass legislation which will run contrary in terms of spending. you have labour, the greens, the snp. the dup has publicly said they would not support an austerity measure because it would like more spending going into northern ireland. let's say the democrats have to be likely, don't want to go into another formal coalition agreement.

want to appeal instead to those voters they have lost, they can do so on an anti-austerity platform. interestingly, they have lost so many voters to labour. they did that because they were in coalition with the tories. we know those liberal democrats who moved away from the party really do think the cuts have gone too far. that is the same for snp voters, for the greens. it's also the same for labour voters. ed miliband has been campaigning very strongly, arguing it was important to bring down the deficit and there would be some cuts under a labour government. in terms of his voting share, his supporters in scotland and england and wales and support for other parties, and more anti-austerity measures, they would have cut through more with the electorate.

i think what we have to remember is that there is no clear winner. the legislative outcomes -- some of the difficulties that will be facing the parliamentary party will be absolutely fascinating. tom: you are saying the liberal democrats have lost their deposit on the first three seats. colin: down to less than 3% in each case. we're hoping to get the full results from newcastle. the liberal democrats managed quite a successful campaign there. the liberal democrats run the council in newcastle, they are second in all of the treats in newcastle. they came within 7% of winning at last time.

if they are scrabbling around for fourth or fifth place with the greens, with ukip having comfortably nosed up into third or second place i we can become more confident about this terrible night for liver -- liberal democrats coming to fruition. some weeks ago we had another skeptically received poll, a congress poll done for i-tv news of the 14 seats held by the liberal democrats in the southwest of england. the polls said they would loose the lots, and loose a lot by some distance. the social media went wild and said this cannot possibly happen because they had incumbent mp's. that is what the polls said, and it could be the case. jane: it looks like it is up by five percentage points tonight. it is inevitably the closeness

of the race. we know when there is something at stake, when it is a close race that people come out in higher numbers to vote. i suspect what we will see is in tight races, the marginal races that will see turn out to be higher than it has been in these other states, that would of course benefit the tories, which might be one of the reasons why the exit poll may be on the money. tom: i want to come to scotland. who is your money on soul survivors? when surviving seed that is not snp scotland? -- one surviving seat that is not snp in scotland? colin: frankly another cliche, they are nearer geographically to norway.

they would probably rather be independent themselves than go with an snp-led independent scotland. tom: this is the most extraordinary revolution really. jane: we are talking about a change in the share of vote for a party that i cannot remember seeing in these sizes. this is probably double the size of what tony blair achieved in 1997, which we remember as being this landslide result. what happened in scotland is that those yes voters who started not necessarily supporting the snp have supported the snp after the referendum. that momentum has grown. we have not seen the same shift in those people that voted no. what we might see tonight is a share of the populace [indiscernible]

tom: you tracked some of these voters and what they think. what do you reckon they will think when they wake up tomorrow morning if those numbers are correct if we have david cameron heading back to downing street, while scotland is almost completely voted snp what do you think all those voters jane: i think it is extraordinary. we have tracked the voters and seen that the likelihood that the snp would have this government, it has i'm -- it has increased by 10%. what we might find of course tomorrow is that while the snp has had an extraordinary result in scotland, there is still not -- they don't have influenced in the government. that would be a disappointment. but would be fascinating, is how that influence is part of the

party making process, the balance of power in parliament. we don't know for sure how certain parties will win. ukip is doing well, in just a small number of seats. if that number increases, we could have a party on the right, small numbers. but it has been a party that has taken the whole of scotland. of course with the scottish voters want is more power for scottish parliament. those people who voted no and who nevertheless thought they would get power for scotland anyway, they have saying -- they have said that this is what scottish voters are looking for. tom: you are about to speak, i will come back to you. we are going to look at the leader of the snp. i don't know how to put this the polls, it has been an

credible night for you. i have not seen this in recent history. >> there are only exit polls exactly. for the time being, we know that this is not and. let's wait for a while before we see real results coming in. tom: what do you think is at the picture, you have done analysis, what do you think the result will be in scotland? >> we have done well, no doubt. it has been a fantastic campaign. real traction with scotland and in end of austerity across the u.k., but in terms of where we end up. we have a record total of 11, so total 12 would be a good result. the target that we have set in scotland is to win the election in scotland.

i will not put a number of seats on it, that would be silly. we are close enough to results being clear and we will know soon enough what the result will be. tom: let's suppose you have a good night, the exit poll is broadly correct and we end up with david cameron back at downing street, but just for a moment potter the notion that the conservatives are back with a minority administration, you could potentially having cared -- having carried scotland, and you have a good result. what happens next in that circumstance? >> remember, we have been here before. that was with margaret thatcher. when the labour party -- but they were the feeble 50, unable to help scotland from a single closure, which happened in that era. the judgment would be, whether the strongest possible exit

block would be essential, put up a fight against what might come next from the government. tom: i know you don't like to talk about this, you said it was not an issue. extrapolating a bit and looking at how the results may have panned out, is it inevitable that if you end up with david cameron back at downing street and you with a 60 mps you will be back on at the ballot paper in 2016. >> we have been clear, as you know this election was not about independence. we were not seeking a mandate for independence. i think what happens next depending on a the result will be the responsibility of the westminster government. the scottish people want -- north of what has been proposed of the commission. one thing in question -- any scottish political party would be duty-bound to listen to reaction of the scottish people.

that is not where we are. we have not been declared yet, so let's take the 2016 election out of the equation until we see the results from the 2015 election. tom: under no circumstances whichever, where you would support the conservatives, what if they offered you. go a, which is what you say you want. >> that is highly unlikely, the answer is no, we could not a deal with the tories. we have an anti-tory party. we want to see in end to austerity. and it is popular in scotland, so it would simply be impossible for us to do that deal. tom: even if it was not a deal, let's suggest they say, we understand and hear the voice of scotland, you need fiscal economy and they put that or offer it to you i'm a you would not support that? >> let's wait and see what results are.

that alliance may offer scotland something, they haven't best far. we are not expecting things a little far out. tom: think you, we will talk to you later in the evening. and now we're going to talk to the ukip leader. >> hello there. a party election night, nigel the exit poll suggests just to seize it for the u -- two seats for the ukip. >> yes, i want to congratulate the editors. they said that the u.k. vote was be ukip though.

[applause] >> there we are, he has been saying through the evening that he has confident, not complacent. the question now is whether he will when this seat. he hasn't said that he will stand it if he is not successful here. tom: thank you. something tells me that he had only one thing to say. i'm joined by former press secretaries from downing street. welcome back gentleman to the studio. let's start. my memory of that era was it was a tiny bit chaotic. think about this one. if david cameron ends up on downing street. guest: if these exit polls are accurate, it is not what we are led to believe the bipolars. so, you have to put it like

that. i whole bunch of people like that around the world, living in the u.k., they will be exasperated or relieved if this is the outcome. so if your question is more about the outside world rather than the inside world of downing street, because this is a less chaotic outcome than what has been predicted. tom: my question to both of you actually, we have collectively experienced and have operated in government, me reporting on government, how chaotic, how difficult it is to manage -- christopher: you do the deals. tom: but who do you do the deals with? just about to get you over the line? guest: the thing about tonight we have been there before. it is an issue to think about

how does this pan out? christopher: it will be longer than less time. this time, it might take a little longer. i think that sir haywood wants to take his time to work out a deal. tom: you worked with gordon brown, do you think it is realistic on these numbers, if they are correct, to have snp if that could add up? guest: these numbers currently it is not likely. christopher: these numbers are so surprising. these are far better than thought. david cameron is it thinking this will make life easier. and i think that it is going to be a longer game because he hasn't been there in 2010.

-- he has been there in 2010, it will give him an opportunity to think clearly and irrationally about his position. tom: is this a sustainable government? if david cameron stays, gets support from the dup and liberal democrats, something -- christopher: why you skeptical about their support? tom: there is only 10 of them. and they have lost some of their -- christopher: so close, he could almost touch it. guest: someone who is the queen possible by the secretary, he has to spend the next few days, consulting, informing the queen. he will tell her what the situation is and only then it will be clear if the government

can take. it will create a government that we have been talking about. but if cameron is down -- : christopher: i venture to suggest that there will be an active role for him. tom: operating a government like this, is that sustainable? :: christopher: it's rock 'n roll but it is sustainable. tom: do you remember, do you still have the scars -- perceiver -- christopher: he lost it quickly. he drained away rapidly. and when it got, the thing that made it tricky was the combination of diminishing majority, right-wing rebellion from the baxter's, as he called them. tom: no --

christopher: and a dodgy type of thing with the northern parties. in those days, -- tom: i remember sitting there and watching it. when it got up and crossed the floor, this is what daily life would be like if this happens. simon: the economic situation is so much better. in 2010, the european economy was in a terrible state. the determination to get a deal done was prompt. at this time around, the economic conditions are different, we have been there before. they will take the time to make sure it is something that sticks. gordon brown wasn't sitting there in 2010, he said it, i cannot keep the clean waiting

period i do think that the constitutional party of this event, where the premise or must be confirmed, i think it will be tomorrow, the next that, it will -- there are other twists and turns until the final stage. tom: gentlemen, thank you. we will go to james who has been with david cameron all the way through. have you had any sleep james? what is the view of the cameron camp? james: they are being deliberately downplaying, no sign of euphoria. the most we could get out of them he is pleased with the exit poll, that is an understatement. he has had dinner with sam and is watching the results. who knows if he is watching this program? he will go to his camp in a couple of hours.

but, obviously they are highly surprised. just a couple of days ago a very senior member of his campaign told me that they will bite your hot -- and by your hand off for 300 seats. it makes him the first prime minister since margaret thatcher to have increased the number of seats in parliament after an election. of course assuming that the exit poll is it right. one point you are well aware of, is that peter mandelson, they have been spinning. sleigh, they lost the majority. yes, that is the reality of it. it would be a minority government. it has been a -- the major years. and here also in recent times we have had a minority government, that was in 1974.

it lasted only six months. so, when does the talking start we have to wait and see what the actual real numbers are, how it adds up. there will be no immediate talks with anybody in the next few hours. until all results are in. tom: james, a lot of people are startled by this opinion poll, so out of line with what we have seen throughout the campaign. do you think they are as surprised by it as we are? james: i think at the beginning of the campaign this is what they were looking at and they expected the polls -- to widen, they thought this was achievable at the beginning of the campaign. but when the polls never moved and never moved and there was no momentum, i think they were looking like the rest of us,

280, 290, would be a good result, hoping they would win by 20. that was a sort of thinking there. on the other hand, they have always in aware that in these elections, the things that always win our leadership and he has always been a -- in terms of what would make the best prime minister. he has exceeded confidence. he has always been ahead, unlike john major who had a pretty good economic record, by the end of his five years lost the economic confidence in 1992. and -- who is well ahead of them, the status quo, quite often decides what they know rather than take themselves in the dark. they always have. they have it in the back of their mind thinking maybe 1-2 or three of those will work.

but the last couple of days of the campaign, there was not much optimism that this could be achieved. tom: another night without sleep for you. thank you for joining us. let's go up to be -- rim and see what is making the front pages. >> the journalists are talking about the front pages. matthew perry from the times and other journalists with us. let's start with the mirror. if we can take the front page, not what you are hoping for. >> a lot of very despondent people out there. i say to these people, look there is a lot of politics out there, fear about scotland about politics.

i happen to think whatever the result, the politics will live on. and it is the politics that addresses everyday problems, the fact that most people in poverty , the housing crisis with 5 million people on the waiting list, young people in london, a booming city growing up in overcrowded homes. whether the public services ruined by --, that is politics. the politics of hope, not politics about divide and rule. you have at lower wages, instead of being angry, you should -- if you cannot get a home, you can get angry with politicians because they haven't built housing, that should be years. i think of politics of hope which addresses people's needs. >> the campaign of hope.

this headline just coming in. what was difficult for the papers with this, you have to go the exit poll on this. i think this sums it up, shocker. >> i do feel this tonight. the time to come up with something, i think that it is an oversight that the conservatives would it be on downing street but i feel like it is -- i'm not, this is not particularly deep analysis, i just think that a lot of people are thinking this now. i don't know if that is what it will look like tomorrow, but it is depressing for me. >> let's move onto the next one. next, tight about this. guest: a classic tabloid.

if you think it is difficult being a politician, try to be a newspaper at the moment. if they are grappling. and of course they have to commit to print. we can quickly turn around and say this or that, they have to go with it. i am shocked that i have been lied to by tuesday of -- two senior liberal democrats. i was assured by danny alexander and nick clegg that they would hold their own. i took bets out on this. i might lose 50 quit tonight. i won't rip them up yet. those exit polls could be wrong. anchor: let's look at the next one. guest: i like this headline, it is factual. i think the conservative party has a great opportunity starting from now to stop being polite and courteous and understanding

towards their opponents. i think the conservatives supporting media have the opportunity to do that too. lots of people today will have voted conservative, holding their noses. a lot to would have voted conservative if they had not had to hold their noses. it is important that the tory media and the party learned to be more likable and dignified. anchor: will they do that if they become -- if cameron goes back, or with a majority? the campaign has probably proved that if the exit hole is right that negative campaigning works. guest: i think what swung the campaign was the public perception that the coalition government had in the successful . i never believed that kicking your opponent or throwing sand in their faces -- there will be a temptation in tory ranks and in the tory press, but i never believed that was appropriate.

anchor: we have a big story of the night. guest: unrecognizable now if this is true. virtually every single piece of scotland will now go to them. if you went to scotland as i did on this bus tour, as soon as you go to the airport, all posters look to the snp. you knew that they were on the crest of a wave. at the back end of last year the english politicians told this god, don't leave the union lead the union. they got it now. so you will see them perform. anchor: what do you think in terms of the union, that is the key question? guest: under massive pressure, we are back to last autumn. there will be a sense, if they want it that much, why not let them go for it. anchor: thank you very much one and all.

tom: michael is here with me. you could be chief with of the majority. that sounds like the worst job in britain. michael: it is a fascinating job. let's not get ahead of ourselves. we are speculating about the poll. people are talking about whether the exit poll will be right in every particular. there is a trend. at the conservatives have done so far, well. it appears to be a bad night for the labour party. tom: so, this is a complex machine operates and you have been in touch with all mps. tell me about it. michael: i don't know. we will in a few hours time no and have a plethora of results lots of data.

one thing i can say, on the basis of what happened on the three seats in the north so far it seems they are moving in the right direction. but those are just three seats in a one region, it does not tell us everything. but if you look at both of the exit polls at the bbc produced and your own poll, it seems clear -- tom: it is the same poll. we do it collectively, these days. so we are all pulling the same sources. we can talk about that later. let's just talk about what this does mean. if the figures are in the right ballpark, it is more than possible that you will not be able to fill a government -- do you think it is conceivable that the liberal democrats will go into coalition with you? michael: when you're dealing

with majorities in the house of commons, you have to be able to make sure that your party is solid and loyal. and you also work with, if you don't have majority with other parties, you work with --. there is plenty of time between -- tom: you must have talked to be dup. over the last couple of month it should not come as a surprise what they want. they have been very public. michael: their leader has written articles outlining their position. but, let's not speculate about that. the prime minister will later today be saying exactly what he proposes to do in order to ensure that we can have a strong, and secured government. we must not get ahead of of ourselves. it seems as though while there has been a good campaign, it appears certainly as though the labor has had a bad night. and i hope the prime minister

will be in a position to spell out what the next step is. tom: on these numbers, anything approximating to them, is a stable credible the right, is that possible with david cameron at the home? -- helm? michael -- michael: let's as i say, not get ahead of ourselves. we do need -- tom: if we are not going to get ahead of ourselves, do you and all it that it is credible that cameron could be prime minister within 24 hours? michael: i would be amazed if anyone makes that argument with a straight face. tom: it is possible that the math will not add up, the way the constitution works, if you cannot win a vote of confidence, then -- it goes to downing street. michael: but you said it going

into downing street tomorrow. there appears to have been a small number -- it is the city prime minister who has the first right to form a government. it is the largest party that traditionally forms a government. i would have thought the very least, all constitutional presidents would have suggested that the exit polls, if they are correct, that david cameron would be in a position to lay out exactly how a secure government could be formed. tom: if you cannot get the numbers between you, has to be --, no dispute. michael: it is the case we have argued throughout. only two people could be prime minister. even on the basis of all predictions, it is a david cameron who has the legitimacy and right to be first and saying how the government should be formed. one thing i know that the premise that will do is he will think about the national

interest first. he will think about how the government can be secured and reflect -- tom: every constitution reflects or would argue that these legitimacy is are irrelevant. you either have the numbers or you don't. david cameron will remain the primary stress lines you can get the votes for confidence. ergo it must be -- michael: he remains prime minister until parliament meets. and then when they meet, he has to assure that the votes of confidence are one. for any prime ministers to consider the options and to make sure that the government is formed provide security. tom: one final question, if this poll is anything approximating to the result, what do you make of what is happening in scotland? michael: i have been concerned about the skepticism. i think we have been fortunate in this campaign.

my understanding is that there are seats in scotland which are competitive at the moment, the conservatives doing well in. let's not get ahead of ourselves. on a previous occasion i suggested that the conservatives might surprise people by how well they did in scotland. tom: final question, if there is 53 54 s np mp's is that beginning of the end of the union? michael: actually not. people would have voted for whichever party is secure, and it is perfectly clear that spnp leaders said that the referendum will be conclusive. i can't imagine that they could go back on their word, whatever the result of the general election is. tom: thank you for joining us.

now, as michael pointed out the results are what count. it is half past 12, in another hour we will get the results in a rush. it is obviously down to the key marginals to decide this. we have a summary of what to look out for. >> we are going to show you the battleground. look at those target seats. we will take you to the battleground, to the right of the center line. the conservative targets. let's take you there and look at the areas that will be hunting grounds for the conservatives tonight. if this exit poll turned out to be correct. this is in the midlands, both west and east, are in great interest. an easy target. but if we take you a little bit further down, the remember, the closer they are -- looking at

this seat. this is a close -- classic tory suburban seat that went to labor -- it's like that, it will be watching for. the east midlands, the defense secretary's seat, 103 classic midlands marginals -- one over three -- one of the classic midlands marginals. there are another couple of building hi -- birmingham seat. nottingham shire also a

hunting ground. i know you guys will be watching that very closely throughout the night. this actual concrete is littered with marginals. tom: the east end west midlands, lots of seats got to be -- that conservatives won from labor. david cameron was there the other day and labor was expecting to take back these seats quite easily and that will be the result we are looking for to see if the exit poll and the narrow swing between conservative and labor will prove to be true. julie: birmingham a big hunting ground tonight. tom: birmingham very important. the carpet of the election is in the midlands -- cockpit of the

election is in the midlands and exit polls are showing the conservatives are doing well in the midlands and we are waiting for the results to see if that is the case.\ julie: i was going to ask, what factors we are looking at because we know that cockpit of the election is in the midlands and the is a battleground,. jane: we are looking at a ukip results that may be better than the productions, one of the things that purpose by surprise when the result came out. in our data of the ukip did well in the midlands. and we expected them to do well in these. that the east -- the ease. tom:

tom: what do you make of this? >> it is not what they expected. it is not reflected response. we have a huge number of campaigners collecting detailed information with the responses and we have a very warm response today in the key states that we have been following across the country. it just simply does not fit with what we felt on the ground so on that basis we have to wait for

the response to come in. it makes for a difficult night for us responding because the exit poll does not feel right. tom: the party headquarters must of had a chance to speak to experts and are certain that this is wrong? >> again we have to wait for the final results. it does not fit with the experiences we have had in the responses today. we are overtly liberal democrat saying they do not think that this is right and the pollsters saying that they do not think it is right and the snp casting doubt.for all of those reasons we will have to wait but even if the exit poll is right david cameron says that the test was to win a majority and he failed to do that.

we have seen the coalition, the majority of 73, just disappear as the result of the exit poll. obviously the test for a government and a prime minister is can you command the confidence of the house of commons. david cameron will find it extremely difficult to do this even with the exit poll result and that is the question for him tonight. tom: let's try to concentrate on what we can agree seems to be happening which is an absolutely extraordinary result for the snp in scotland. this is a disaster for you whichever way you look at it isn't it? >> we have known this was hard for some time. obviously in scotland it is still in the shadow of the referendum. i think there is something else which has been happening which is that with the financial

crisis and the fall the living standards, not just in britain it has been for all grown for nationalism. i think we can argue against the nationalism but it will take time to do so. we have to wait to see what the results are because we have a lot of scottish colleagues running fantastic campaigns against the snp in different constituencies. i do think has had a very specific result. tom: thank you, not long until the results begin to flow in. what do you make about this? co we have had a resultl -- c olin: we have had a result from swindon north. there has been a swing of more than 4% from labor to the conservatives. tom: a change in the share.

colin: a swing from labor to conservative and the liberal democrats collapsing. down from 17% to 3%. ukip nosing up. key point of that, labour treating the exit for with skepticism and worry. in the southern part of england a swing to the conservatives after five years of conservative government. we are not used to that thing. 1992, i start to think right away. tom: go to the guest room. >> eventually breaking news, one of my justice from "the spectator -- just is from "view spectator."

i am joined by jd from the electoral reform for society and if you do not recognize my other just you should be going to bed right now, is here tonight because he is heading up the common decency campaign. brian, you think that politics are broken. where does a result electrolyte leave that kind of campaign. brian: i think that correct or not the british government is saying they do not believe in the two-party system anymore. i would like to not see a coalition, the country has seen what happened in the last election and the coalition is where it all went wrong. the justification is that with the collapse of the liberal democrats now, people were

disgusted to see them get in bed with people that they disagreed with and make another bully in the house of commons. they would like to see whoever gets into number 10 run a minority government. that is what parliament is really therefore, to give us a said. -- there for to give us a safe. y. basically, the votes have no effect. i would like to see that trend. -- that shane. >> i think that brian is right that the two-party system is dead at. we are trying to cram people into a two-party system and it does not work. people feel that voices have to be heard, that have voted in

large numbers for the smaller parties. the increasingly do not see votes leading to a fair share of seats. jane: do you think this is the election when people will look at the fair share and say enough is enough? brian: i hope so and i think we made a parliament that is home. -- hung. there is scaremongering that it would be a disaster and i think it would be great. we could get a chance to the two-party system and please god, that is what this is about. maybe 50% will feel at the end of the election that their view was not represented. katie: in so many countries -- most of europe has proportional voting where people see choices

reflected in the national parliament. i think brian is right to say that there will be an impetus to change that. people have changed and want to express a wider range of preferences than before. we have seen established parties struggled to get two thirds of the vote. we have also seen -- and we do not know what the exit hole means. -- exit poll means. but it has not closed and outright winning government. jane: given an astonishingly bad night for the liberal democrats the damage of being in a partnership. brian: i think it is a lesson, whoever goes into a coalition will face that kind of backlash so i would advise everybody not to. it is in the public interest that they do not.

these are the people who did not vote. why did they not vote? not necessarily apathetic but because of what you said, they could see that there was no chance for their voice to be heard. jane: brian may, who on facebook right after this taking questions. you can join him and ask him questions about common decency. tom: i think the graphics department needs to learn a thing or two. we are waiting for putney, a safe tory seat. one of the few women and david cameron's cabinet will survive. i have asked julie to look at the battle board. we are looking at the tory target. london is a bit of a case itself. julie: in the current seat tally

from 2010 conservatives are 10 behind labour in the capital. there are some key wants to look at. let's pick them out. in putney, the narrowest margin on the board tonight. she is standing down, she was just holding that one so that is definitely one to watch. an interesting battle. all sorts of factors there. the tax played into the decision and all kinds of things in that seat. we could head to a seat a little further away from the centerline. let's go to a seat worth looking at. a calm seat. there is another seat a little further along from the centerline, the classic seat of hammersmith.

which has consolidated over several years. the tories will be ironed out very carefully. there are cute -- all using that -- eyeing that very carefully. recent polling suggests that jane allison will be holding on. there are these battlegrounds that make them very interesting. tom: some of the opinion polls that have been done, although it is way off of the list, potentially looking at one point that looks like it would fall but clearly at that moment. do you want to jump in about london? colin: loopholes during the campaign suggests that it is a big swing to labour in the election t --he p the poll

suggests that it is a big swing to labour in the election. tom: we are going live. >> labour party, 12,038. animal welfare party 184. the conservative party candidate, 23,018. [applause] alex andrew james, liberal democrat, 2717. [applause] christopher edward, green party 2067. [applause] ward patricia, commonly known as tricia, uk independence

party, 1989. [applause] the number of ballots rejected and not counted were as follows. tom: justine greening back in putney, no particular surprise. maybe you can sort that as i jog through the figures. jane: once again you are seeing the collapse of the liberal democrats in london. london is an area where the number of liberal democrats are low, somewhat less in london. interesting to see the u kip change as well. that is what we would expect in london. it is not as high in london. very, very different to these

seats in the north of england where they were getting a 16 or 17% share of the vote. this is a different picture in london. it is interesting to sheet to seek after cebit increasing. tom: what do you think the result means for them? >> what you have in london is an interesting demographic pattern. it has been a happy hunting ground for the conservatives for some years now. it was part of the conservatives way back before going on to win a number of seats in 2010. i do not think what happens in putney will be the same in the rest of london. in areas with lots of young professionals with high incomes in that area, they are naturally

conservatives. then we have increasing numbers of more affluent but still labour favoring ethnic minority voters. i would not write off the labour chances of making gains. be solved is becoming more conservative in the north of england is going towards labour -- the salve is becoming a more conservative ambit the north of england is going towards labour. -- and the north of england is going towards labour. >> good morning. tom: what do you make of the exit hole and what we have heard this evening?

-- exit poll and what we have heard this evening? hilary: it looks strange to me given what i have seen and behind me you can hear the russell of ballot papers and they are being verified and then they will be counted and there is a long night still to go. see seats in leaves, we have run a good campaign but we have yet to find out what the voters have decided so i think we need more patients. tom: you mentioned the seats opinion polls are suggesting that they are incredibly close. a tory seat that you are trying to get. your predictions on those two? do you think you will take them? hillary: i think they have fought fantastic campaigns with huge

support. it is no ken that and i was in puts me on saturday, a huge amount of effort. i think it will be a tough result tonight and we have to wait for the votes to be counted and the declaration to be heard. they have run terrific campaigns with huge supports. tom: if the gap between the conservatives and your party remains large by the end of the evening, is it credible that ed miliband could walk in as prime minister after all of that? hilary: we have to wait and see what the final result is but as you were discussing earlier in the evening, in the end a government has to be able to get the queen's speech and the business through the house of commons and the final disposition will determine how that happens. as you will know, david cameron went into the general election leading a coalition with a majority of 73.

even if the exit polls were to be right that has almost disappeared. and that shows that things have changed. that is why we have to see what the outcome of the actual results are in the actual constituencies and then we will be in a better position to answer questions like that. we are not at that point yet. tom: thank you very much indeed, we are joined in the studio by the environmental secretary. >> good morning. tom: people keep saying good morning to me but to me it is still the evening. >> we have all moved on. tom: looking at the map, do you feel that with the exit poll we are working off of, the details underlying the exit poll. we have only had a few. let's not get overexcited about that. it does seem clear that you are probably going to be ahead of us

there is a dramatic turn of events. you are probably not going to get a majority. i were you going to govern in those circumstances? -- how are you going to govern in those circumstances? >> we do not know, it could fluctuate either way. we have seen a positive result in swindon, the base in pu tney, those are interesting results for us. what we saw in the last election in 2010 was that the prime minister, david cameron, in the interests of the country put forward a plan to have a successful government. i am sure that that is what we will see about we need to see the precise results to know what that would be. i think what we do know is that this result, if the exit poll is correct, is very, very bad for the labour party.

we are hearing things from the labour party that patently is not true if the exit poll is correct. tom: it is a very complex question and the exit poll was surprising. never the less you have been in the democrat and sat alongside liberal democrat colleagues. if the poll is correct and the liberal democrats lose their seats, do you think it is incredible that if the liberal democrats are doing is badly there is the slightest chance they will want to go back into coalition or support you in any way in the new environment? >> that is a question for the liberal democrats. what is interesting is that we are seeing regional variations. a very different situation in scotland and parts of england so we do not know the exact makeup of seats and that will become clear throughout the night. what is clear is that the results best if the results are correct and we see positive

signs for the conservatives then we can declare a win for the conservative party. tom: you spend time talking to your colleagues in the snp? do you know what they are going to want? elizabeth: i have to talk to all parts of the u.k. in my job as environmental secretary. that is a part of my role. tom: do you think some arrangement could be made? elizabeth: it is far too early to say. what we do know is that the exit poll as of the unique situation that we have on this election, it is much harder to predict the exact number of seats. it could go up or down. it would be wrong to speculate at this point in time. tom: let's check in on the

opinion room. >> i am back with adam with the exit polls. if they are correct, they are getting a lot of reaction on twitter. in terms of issues, what are people talking about? >> we have been looking at what issues people are talking about in this campaign and we do that zoomed in on the top two. -- soon be among the top two. for the last week or so, duking it out to be the most talked about issue. the big spike at the end is tonight. the last 24 hours, pulls open, that connect until the exit poll. people started talking about what would another five years of a camera government look like and the big question is the future of the nhs driving conversation tonight. >> let's get more reaction to whether the result was driven by one single issue.

i will not do the cliche but was it down to the economy? i am joined by lord jones, the well-known businessman and former prime minister and lisa, who has turned poet. thank you for speaking to me. was it, in the end, if the tories are back into downing street, about the economy? did people say we need to stick with the long-term economic plan that we have heard so many times? >> economic recovery has been a key issue. people are interested in jobs and job security and with the economy recovering people do not want to put that at risk. jones: one thing i did not hear from ed miliband wants in the campaign was on that -- once in the campaign was profit. if you work, for one of the big

exporting manufacturers, you relate to the fact that you need successful business. they are not shareholders, they are actually the people on but what they understand is that you have to have successful wealth creation because without it they do not get a job. no profit and no taxation and no public sector and you can forget your nhs because there will not be more to pay for it. the penny dropped that it is not just the general economic environment that is important but i think the average woman in the street can work in the private sector environment saying that they wish the labour party had talked about business. if you never did. >> i think it is more diverse than that. there is no single reason. there are economic reasons but also the regulations, let's talk

about the economy and we have barely mentioned tax evasion. we are not talking about raising taxes. i think that the case that was made was too timid. if you look at the southern conservative policies, i am worried considering how explicit spadework in their dislike of immigration and by extension migrants. it is extremely worrying that they were in their dislike of immigration and by extension -- worried considering how explicitly were in their dislike of immigration and by extension migrants. i go around the businesses and the schools in the country and i was quite taken, i was doing a poll in a shopping center to the north and people were saying

what is this about. and she said, i have always voted labour and i am going to vote ukip. and i switch off the microphones and she said, that i said, tell me. and she said immigration. she had never voted conservative. she was a labour voter who was going to vote you cap. -- ukip. i suggest they go up there and i am not saying that you are wrong, i am merely saying it is not a london issue. >> i am the son of war refugees so i am not living in any kind of bubble and i resent the implication that it is the city but does not understand immigration as an issue. the implication being that i live in a metropolitan bubble. i resent that. i do not think it is black and white. we have a conversation that has

skewed towards immigration. we are reclaiming taxes that are already due from offshore. >> why is she not voting labour? >> the full picture has not been given to a woman like that. there is the thing. i would like to achieve the same kind of growth that you would like to achieve but my problem is that we had a conversation about immigration almost exclusively. we have not talked about the financial regulations. >> the demonization of creating wealth by miliband all the way through this campaign, big business means evil, terrible, dreadful things. the average business woman or working woman of the country does not agree with him. >> the key here is that there is an opportunity to grow and that goes through all of the challenges that we have.

is that of digital economy there are -- even in the digital economy opportunity there are 70,000 job opportunities. it also includes people who are not necessarily born here because we have to get the balance of making true that we contribute to the economy in a way that everybody will benefit. >> i am going to have to bring that to an end. it is nice to end with nodding heads rather than a row. tom: we are going to go straight . we were talking about it earlier. ukip, 1500 and 37. >> -- 1537. >> labour party, 25,263. [applause]

liberal democrats, 2107. green party, 2201. watkins, daniel richards, the conservative party candidate 22,400. [applause] 22,421. the number of ballot papers rejected and that counted at this election was as follows. tom: labour holds tooting. that number is not particularly surprising. the greens of overtaking the liberal democrats.

look at the change in the share of the vote. look through that. colin: reams of replaced liberal democrats have dropped badly. -- greens have replaced, liberal democrats have dropped badly. interestingly, labour and the conservatives are both up. the tiniest swing from conservative to labour. the conservatives are not going to do worse than 2010 tonight. tom: one of the things that the democrats were worried about was losing votes to the greens and that is something that we have seen over the campaign. are you surprised by that? jane: roughly in line with what we were expecting because ukip is picking up large numbers of votes in the capital interestingly but was me -- what

must be happening in other parts is that some of the ukip voters are helping the tories. the greens are doing better than the liberal democrats. it is very, very bad for them. tom: on the question of the ukip of, has there been evidence of that in these studies in the campaign or is this a last-minute thing that the s and t, -- snp, labour put out that was scary at the end. jane: there is a graph that we can put up. tom: give it a try. jane: we had a study before the campaign and we followed of the people up, 22,000 people during the campaign.

we can see is the flow of the vote people moving towards and we are hoping to show with people move upwards in that direction and we can see. what we find out is that in particular the liberal democrat voters, for everyone -- ukip voters forgive me. for everyone that the conservative party are losing they are getting two back. tom: let's explain that. people leaving? jane: the conservatives are losing votes to labour and gaining more votes so that is what we are seeing. the conservatives outperforming how mark did a voters and they are losing. they are losing slightly more liberal democrat voters but they are getting more ukip voters that they are losing. two for everyone they are losing. tom: if the exit poll is right and there is a big conflict

about the opinion polls being wrong, is it fair to say that one thing is that the ukip voters were constantly saying i am going to vote ukip but in fact they did not? jane: obviously we will spend a lot of time looking at this but i think ukip voters are moving to the tories where it counts. ukip voters in other parts of the country might be spreading more evenly. there will be three or four seats where they might win them. i think what is happening is that ukip voters are going to the conservatives when they think they can stop a labour candidate because the ukip voters would prefer a conservative to a labour candidate, possibly some of the scare stories talked about in the campaign in regards to the influence over a labour coalition government. it would have been something that ukip voters would have found extremely concerning.

the possibility of ed miliband going into number 10. it is an important part of the story. tom: it was interesting when julie told us that colin: -- colin: it was interesting when julie told us. tom: did you do that when the cameras were on? -- she do that when the cameras were on? colin: he was blaming "of the daily mail" and "the sun." saying that the ukip voters are pulled back to the conservatives by a combination of the fear of ed miliband and snp. seems to be working. tom: let's get a summary from julie. elizabeth: 1:17 in the morning the conservatives are on course to be the largest paul that party. a poll puts the tories on 315 seats.

labour will be way behind on 239. liberal democrats and the night on 10. the green party will have -- end the night on 10. green party withdrew. -- will have two. we say that it is too early to celebrate. >> you cannot count your chickens. as i have said before, if the exit poll is correct a great success for the conservatives. julie: if that is correct it points to a labour wipeout which could help david cameron returned to downing street but the snp remain cautious. >> what we have known all along is that what has happened in scotland has been cautious in the distance the referendum.

i hope that a lot of mps will return. we have been warning that a vote for the s&p risks the conservatives coming back in power. >> it has been a fantastic campaign and i think there has been a real traction with our message. end austerity across the ukip -- across the u.k. 12 would be a good result. julie: labour has taken several seats so far but we have seen an increase in ukip votes. ukip took second place with more than 8000. that translates to 21.5 percent of the vote, an increase of nearly 19%, something nigel will take note of. nigel: the first result was from

heloughton. i want to congratulate the editors of the "daily mail" and "the sun." they are geniuses. julie: we will keep you appraised of the latest developments as they come in. tom: thank you. i see what you mean, i have not quite spotted how incredibly annoyed nigel looked in that interview. you were mentioning particularly singling out the editors of "of the daily mail" and "the sun." who printed the promotion guide that may have worked. colin: i think absolutely, they were desperate. 92, we may not be there yet but it has resonance.

the capital decided that was the election approach they were really worried about, labour and ed miliband getting into power because it looked like they have a little degree of momentum and they were concerned. they were very concerned about the snp in scotland. together that message rammed home by the conservative campaign seems as if it has resonated in southern england. tom: do you think that has changed in the campaign? ukip voters who are gone back to the tories were always going to go back or they moved in the last few days? jane: that is such an interesting question because before the campaign we saw indications. we knew that the ukip vote was flimsier and that they were losing people as much as gaming even though the poll outlook looked constant -- gamining even though the poll. outlook

looked constant. the writing was on the wall for the ukip. we do not know about if the threat of a labour coalition with snp brought many back to the tory fold. tom: we are going to go back to see if the tories have:. -- have held on. >> the conservative party candidate, 26,730. [applause] christopher jeffrey, u.k. independence party 1586. [applause] martindale will, labour party

18,792. [applause] eldridge joseph, green party 1682. [applause] taylor luke alexander, liberal democrat 2000. tom: the public health minister in the current government is back in battersea. it looks like she has done fairly well. let's come back in a moment. alastair campbell is waiting to talk to us. i would suggest you do not need any introduction. what do you make of what you have seen so far tonight? we have an exit poll and the conclusions of it but it does

look like it is in the ballpark. what is your estimate? alastair: i think if the exit poll is right and the 11 polls in the last few days are wrong the result is not what the labour party would want or has hoped for. i think that what i would say about that poll in particular is that it just needs a few seats in scotland or the tory labour marginals, that one in battersea, the swing to labor was not that great. we're in a situation here where david cameron who set himself the task of saying if he does not form a conservative majority able to govern alone that he would regard as failure. by those terms michael, earlier on a program, said that he could

not govern on his own. on your earlier interviews you are talking about possible attempts that he would try to do deals was the liberal democrats or whatever. we have to see if david cameron on the top end of the expectations could form a government which commands the authority of the house of commons. tom: this is a spectacularly complex situation for anyone watching the program to unpack. do you think that it is conceivable that ed miliband code walked into downing -- could easily walk into downing street? alastair: i do not think anyone will walk easily into downing street. if the exit poll was right, then clearly, if you look at the manual, david cameron is entitled to see if he can form a

government that can command of the support of the house of commons. if he cannot do that, than whatever the final tally, if you cannot do that, then ed miliband is the next person that the queen goes through to form a government. if you go back to 2010, david cameron did not go to the queen and say i am going to do a deal and form a government, he went and was asked to be prime minister because gordon brown was expected that he had lost the confidence in the house of commons and that is how our system works. the interesting thing that is affecting the labour party results, and if you like, the northern expectations of virtually every election i have been involved in, it has always been a given that the labour party does well in scotland and that is not happening. that is a big factor. i think that what has happened

in scotland is going to be big even if they do not necessarily have much clout in parliament because both parties have indicated there is no chance of them being a part of any coalition. the referendum has not lessened the issues for the westminster government about scotland, if anything it has increased them. tom: what happens next in scotland? alastair: there we really are going to have to see what happens because to be absolutely frank, i have just talked to them and they say that by the end of the day they are not going to have the letters behind his name and he was not open that he was open about that. there were cap -- he was open about that.

58 or 59, i do not know if that is true. they have been playing it down and are quite sensible in doing that. i think there are going to be from scotland so many messages for politicians in westminster to take from this. i do think that david cameron's handling of this, that he was thinking if i get 300 plus then maybe i get some of those because i am playing the labour/snp scare card. but if the consequences to drive the wedge further between england and scotland which i think he has done than the long-term consequences are not good for the union that he wants to keep. tom: thank you for joining us. they're in the studio with me lord dartmouth. >> good evening, good night. tom: we are getting confused at

this point. how do you feel? nigel not in the best of spirits this evening when they caught up with them. i would do party is doing tonight? -- how do you think the party is doing tonight? >> we have been predicting that we would be the third-biggest party and the scottish nationalists are apparently going to get over 50 mps at westminster. the fact of the matter is that ukip will get at least twice as many votes as the scottish nationalists. and we could conceivably not have a leader in the house of commons. the fact of the matter is, other people have said there is only our program and other programs. the fact of the matter is that the third-party system does not work in a multiparty system.

we would be incredibly excited if for some reason nigel does not get tom: let me just ask you, do you think he has one? >> how does anybody know? the point is, the 2010 general election, the candidate only got 6% of the vote. it is a huge personal achievement for nigel to be in contention at all. the point i was going to make, if nigel and other elected and a second chance i have given you, the fact of the matter is the establishment party will jump up and down in glee. however, the fact is, the point of view which nigel has is held by