work. i think he's the absolute worst president. .j., go ahead. caller: good morning. legacy. saidood up 22 times and people could shcheat there healh care but could keep their doctors and hospitals. yeah, i really believe anything he says about climate change, he knows absolutely nothing about climate change. he surrounds himself with a bunch of idiots that do not know anything. great legacy on everything. host: all right. the president will be talking about climate change quite a bit this week. that will do it for this segment

of "washington journal." next we will be joined by chris rugaber to discuss a new survey that predicts tepid growth in the coming years. later we will discuss regulations in place to oversee the stock market and debate whether more or less regulation is needed. schneider talked about china's military threat and here is a bit from that event. [video clip] >> i think it is critical. it is not the largest but it will within the foreseeable future become that. it has to be deterred. i do not think our policies on china are working very well. it is not politically correct to

say there is a real chinese threat out there that we have to do something about. take a look at the overall reductions in u.s. military capability since the end of the cold war. a lot of the things we have eliminated, very long range capabilities for the carriers when the f-14 was eliminated without replacement. canceling u.s. deployments of the patriot replacement system. the cancellation of the cgx cruiser. things haveof these a tremendous effect in reducing overall u.s. deterrent

capabilities, particularly when you take into account the threats the chinese are developing. nobody has mentioned chinese aircraft. that is a brand-new threat and a difficult kind of threat to deal with. they probably don't have the same level of stealth u.s. aircraft have. the cancellation of some of our air defense from the 1990's i think has a significant effect in increasing the chinese ability to threaten the united states. host: and to watch the entire event, go to our website. and now we're joined by chris rugaber. he covers the national economy for the associated press. a recent survey on the future of

the u.s. economy. talk about why and how often the a.p. does this survey of economists. guest: pretty much quarterly and we get about three dozen folks from wall street banks and we survey them about national economic trends to see, to find something unusual and to get a sense of their input on a lot of different subjects. we usually do a story about the survey and we feed into other articles afterward. host: is the outlook not optimistic? hiring.utlook wages in why? guest: they seem to be throwing in the towel. the economy is growing and

people are getting jobs. to get a sense that is months it is going to get better. maybe there is some that whether that slows the economy a little bit. this time there is more of an acceptance for moderate growth. is being reason is the aging society. the the rumors retiring -- baby boomers retiring. slower economic growth. we've had about five years of slow productivity, which is a complicated subject. fewer workers are working less efficiently translates into more moderate economic growth. host: how much of the turmoil in the stock market factor it to

this survey? guest: the survey predates some of that. we did ask about china. the threat of a sharper slowdown in china and to the u.s. economy. that has been on the radar screen for some time. goinged where the it was to go and they thought china is going to go more from where it is now and that will have a broader effect on the global economy and the united states. host: how does that impact the key decision by the federal reserve about raising interest rates? guest: they have taken a pause to see how what in shiny playing out. officials wherere,

it sounds like they are focused on raising the short term rate either next month or by the end of the year. china and the stock target volatility is the big wildcard for now. down, they will probably go ahead with their plan. host: we are talking with chris rugaber from the associated press. if you want to join in the conversation, our phone lines are open. , easton are central. 202-748-8001, mountain and pacific. yhooutart calling in -- can start calling it right now. end of the light at the

the tunnel? guest: the unemployment rate is coming down. people are giving up job searches. we are seeing some healthy hiring. more people are back at work. there is some positive signs of housing. they expect that to continue. getting back to pre-recession levels. but not to bubble levels. and i think more hiring and more people earning paychecks has encouraged some people to buy homes. g to makee willin these purchases that reflects some confidence in where there economic situation is going. they are good signs out there.

we would hope to see 3% annual growth for the full year. that is one thing the economist have hoped, that we would get back to that level. maybe next year, but probably later. host: the most recent survey by the associated press. we're talking with chris rugaber , taking your calls as well. thomas is up first. good morning. caller: yes, hi, good morning. thank you for taking my call. 1.000 ands batted have caused more harm than helped it. nobody has taught about manipulating our currency. if you are making dollars, you are making it cheaper.

host: currency manipulation. guest: it has been out there with china and the united states. china devalued its currency and has been criticized. arefederal reserve, they engaging in interest rate policy for the benefit of the united states and other central banks can do the same thing. it is not seen the same way. in negotiations ofor a free trade agreement, some people have wanted to put provisions and the u.s. has been unwilling to do so. willare worried people take some of the things that the fed has done. any kind of provision could be used against someone like the

fed. that has been an interesting part of that trade negotiation. host: talk us through the fed on raising the interest rate. it was talk about again in jackson hole. what is new? trying to read the tea leaves? guest: they want to raise rates since the spring. we had been expecting some move before the end of the year. people thought as early as march they might raise the short term rate. it has been pushed back to september. volatility in the stock market gave some people pause. they would want to raise rates

right in the middle of international volatility. if financial markets settle down, we haven't seen a lot of impact on the broader economy. gyrations. some of the job market indicators and other data suggest it is not been a huge impact on the broader economy. they probably will stay on board. they will watch the next jobs report to see how many jobs were created. they will keep their eye on all of the data until the next meeting. es,t: when a rate raise com who is the first person to be impacted? where will the viewer see it? guest: the fed raises the short term rate and it could impact

mortgage rates, perhaps car loan which perhaps the dollar, will hurt some of the exporting agencies. it should bring more money into the united states. that would push up the dollar. some of the big exporters like caterpillar, general motors, they may face -- a higher dollar makes goods more expensive overseas. it would take time and it may not have as much effect as people feared. there other factors which could keep mortgage rates in check. yhey expect the fed to move bg december at the latest.

host: and some of the other findings from that survey. wage increases to remain below 3.5% annual average. guest: right. those are the signs we are seeing as people expect moderate but not gangbusters kind of growth. there is been a hope of breakout growth were the average for the u.s. economy is about 3% annual growth. getting we have been decent average, about 240,000 jobs a month for the past year. if growth remains modest, that is something that would likely slow. ing up up the slack, soak

some of the unemployed. host: in chris rugaber is our guest. reginald is waiting in houston. good morning. caller: good morning. i was wondering. is not buying a lot of the u.s. treasury notes. in hera defaults economy, and she calls in some of these treasury notes, would it be able to sustain and pay those treasury notes? and social security. we have been borderline out of money. we also know them a lot in the treasury notes. if we ever decided to refund social security and at the same

time be able to pay back china, how would that impact our economy, if they called those notes they own over the decades from the u.s. treasury? could we make do on that? or would we go under? guest: i think the chances of that happening at the same time are pretty small, hopefully. china has a huge amount of reserves. that is what they used to abide the treasury notes and bonds. even as their economy worsens, they are not running the kind of deficits and debts that we have. bonds of own treasury ours, they are getting interest payments from us. that will help them provide some foundation. about inle are talking china is a slower rate of growth. they grew so fast for so long, it had a big impact on the world

worldy pinging -- on the economy. burning oil and commodities in developing countries like israel and australia. now that people see their growth slow from 10% to 7% and lower, it might slow growth overseas, but i do not think it will have much impact on our finances. host: manassas, virginia, is next where sam is waiting. caller: good morning. i would like to make a statement and then ask a question. statement is the reason why the federal reserve does not raise interest rates is because the interest on the national debt will go to almost $1 trillion in a couple years. don't you think we should discuss the -- i do not know. nobody ever talks about this.

we are $500 billion over budget again. how long do you think we can do this? be cbo says we are going to almost $1 trillion in a few years in interest, when they raise the interest that. -- we willn is collapse economically, no doubt about it. so what is your opinion? don't you agree that the federal reserve does not raise interest rates, because the interest on the debt will go up? that is the real reason? guest: thank you. that is true that, as interest rates go up, it will hit the interest -- it will raise the interest payments the government or taxpayers are paying on the national debt. you're right that the congressional budget office put out a report showing how we pay the government and taxpayers are paying a small amount of interest on this debt, in part

because interest rates are so low. and as rates rise, it is likely to raise those interest payments. that is an issue. some of that is not just the fed. it is also market forces. a lot of people still buy treasury bonds. toot of countries buy bonds keep their currency lower in value. they want to invest in dollars, which is relatively safe. every time there is global financial turmoil, money flows to treasury bonds, seen as a safe haven. it is not all the fed. pay more on interest, and that will be a challenge for our deficit. i do not think it will bring about a collapse, but it will make it harder to bring down the deficit. host: you mentioned the cbo releases that came out in the past week. here are charts from the cbo.

federal debt held by the public as a percentage of the gross domestic product going from 1940 all the way through the changing colored -- the changing color, which is the current federal debt held i the public as a percentage of gdp. approaching 80%. total deficitn from 1965 on. you can see where we are today in deficits. just a tad -- right on the average deficit line across all the years. guest: right. calmed down the past few years. there has been some improvement down theficit has come past few years. there has been some improvement. social security and medicare costs will rise and drive up the deficit -- host: so those predictions

expand on the chart in future years. guest: right. some of these tenure projections these 10 yearf projections rarely turn out to be true. some economists argue that with interest rates low, as they have been, it is not the worst thing in the world for the u.s. to borrow. and businesses want to borrow at a low interest rates. but eventually you have to pay you back. host: bob is waiting in boulder, colorado. caller: good morning. there is one solution i have for this economy. it comes from the economies that are doing well in europe. all we have to do is legalize prostitution and marijuana, and everything will be fine. suggestions in boulder. we go to dolly in new york. caller: thank you for taking my

call. one of the things that you mentioned were the baby boomers that were going to be retiring. you kind of make it sound like they will be useless. are banking, which as i read, 10,000 a day -- that is a strong force that still works and help support the economy. that spends. not only that, they feed the economy as people will have to care for us as we age. outlook isyour dim staggering. when we talk about the deficit, which is going down and down -- i think i remember ronald reagan running on deficit feels the economy. i think we're in a conundrum. what might be a good thing for our country is the interest

rates are low. some kind of infrastructure funding. where refund bridges and roads. and help those kinds of systems in our country, which would put many people in the country back to work. thank you for letting me comment. guest: well, i would not say that any baby boomer are anybody retiring is useless or anything like that. it is true the aging society will create some jobs and is creating jobs and home health care and other areas. host: the dim outlook is the ap survey of 30 some economists you talk to. this is not your personal -- guest: yes, thank you. ase of it is inevitable that population growth slows. it is not about any particular group.

as far as the comment on infrastructure, some of this breaks down on party lines. you will see democrats pushing for that kind of infrastructure spending because interest rates are low. there is that you out there. with gridlock in washington, not a lot of it has happened recently, but some support that. host: a tweet. no one knows why the economy is bouncing back. or they know but are not willing to fix the real causes. you can follow the feed @cspanwj . or give us a call like there'll in texas -- darrell in texas. strange.his is i get a call a bill has been paid. i call the company to say be bill is not supposed we paid until the first, so why are you drawing money out? are you drawing money out when i do not have any

money in the accounts, it is not the first of the month? sayade me open my eyes and lord have mercy, they are not only getting paid, it being prepaid, but they are also collect the money early. how can they collect money early when the bank does not even have the money in their? host: are you saying you lost confidence in the fairness of the markets? caller: yes. drawsight there, that attention to the fact that they are getting money early from our accounts. earlyy are getting money from our accounts, i do not consider that payments. i consider that a loan. host: any thoughts? guest: i do not know if that is what kind of company we are talking about.

that -- as something lot of the new technology involved with payment is something that it takes time to get used to. host: another question on twitter. this is looking ahead to the jobs report this week. what is the greatest growth market and the economy? knowg file clerk wants to what job should we be applying for. guest: there are a lot of jobs. there is some bifurcation. there are lower paying jobs in retail. but there are higher-paying jobs. any kind ofnd in information technology field. what is called big data. people who can analyze data. use the big databases that are being collected by many companies and organizations. iner security is a big place

demand. all of these companies and agencies being hacked. more people need -- more of them need people proficient in cyber security. and for those who can get some kind of coding experience, that is a big benefit. maryland,le hills, where rick is waiting. good morning. caller: good morning. i was curious what your thoughts were if we were to reenact the enacted fort bush his corporate cronies when he first got in office. and the fact that earlier this republicans like to count that they are fiscally responsible, they want to pay for things as they cut things, they will enact things, they will pay for something else. they gave a $264 billion tax cuts to 30 families.

3, 0. families. in the u.s. this year. they did not offset that with anything. but they are so fiscally responsible they are just giving away the house every time they get power. every time they had a chance to do something good for the country, they are what away on their own pet marchex and personal friends -- on their own pet projects and personal friends. what i hear from texas, they unemploymentst rate going, because they keep creating jobs. i guarantee you all of these jobs are low-paying jobs. they may be reducing unemployment, but you still have to work two or three jobs to make a living wage. i would like to hear your comments. host: chris rugaber on the economics of tax cuts and the texas economy.

guest: tax cuts, you see some of the proposals from the republican candidates. that will be an issue in the election. i do not know that right now the tax burden overall is in line with historical norms. but there are economists who would see that as something that would help boost growth. from the republican side, you also hear of that regulation and the need to reduce government regulation. works, andt sometimes less so. the implement situation in texas. with the growth is in texas. guest: some of the jobs in texas are higher-paying. the oil and gas boom being somewhat of a fact there. an example of population shifts. a lot of people moved to texas in recent years.

when more people come in, the more people who can help the economy grow, you see more need for roads, schools, infrastructure, homebuilding. that has been a factor. they also have i.t. in places like austin. that has helped as well. has been multiple sources of growth. host: a few more tweets. as long as big tanks and businesses control the money, the economic outlook will be dim. they do not want a strong middle class. and here is a question for you. what is the key indicator or combination that measures the temperature of the economy? guest: key measure, there are a couple. the most broad one is gross domestic product, which is the to measures attempt everything in the economy. it can be a number that is revised a lot. it is sometimes backwards looking.

the government cannot with a measure that combines gdp was something called gdi, or gross domestic income. which measures the economy through income rather than spending, which is how gdp works. and the average of those two. the average of those measures can present a good pick sure. -- a good picture. that was lowered recently. it was higher than gdp itself in recent years. but gdp and jobs are the main measures. for most americans, jobs and the unemployment rate are probably the key indicator of how things are going. host: we go to georgiou -- we are going to georgia where matt is waiting. caller: good morning. i have a question about the federal reserve. whocome we cannot know constitutes the federal reserve, who the banks are?

they are the ones who manipulate our money. but we do not know who they are. we keep saying the fed. why do we not say the private thinking cartel? we bailed out these people for trillions of dollars. at the same time, they were paying their executives excessive amounts of bonuses. why do you not tell us a little more about money, which is what all of us get up, go to school for, to make money. but we do not even know about money. why does the government print money and a private banking cartel gets to loan it to us? we printed paper and then you loan it to us for higher interest rates and we spend our lives paying back to paper. explain those things for us. some peopleyou get to come on your channel and tell us something about money, what money is really about, and stop giving us a bunch of ds that --

bs that really does not make sense. we can never pay off the debt -- is that not true? because we create money out of thin air? we are living on debt. tell us more about our money system. host: we will try to give you these segments as often we can about financial markets and money and banking in the united states. we are talking about this outlook by the associated press, a survey for their expectations on economic growth. coupleugaber, a questions there. guest: the federal reserve is made up of a board of governors in washington. we know who those people are. there are 12 regional tanks and we know who those people are. some of that is known. but there are people who argue as fed is not as transparent

they could be. they do not release the minutes of their meetings until weeks after. they used to not release it at all. there has been an increase in transparency compared to 10, 20 years ago. to see us would like more transparency on some of the decisions. we know how it is made up. it is true that the fed does create money and it is loaned out by banks. that is the way it works now. as far as the bonuses, that has a lot of people upset, but regulation was put in place several years ago. not so much on bonuses, but raining and some of the excessive practices that happened during the mobile -- the bubble. the sec is requiring public companies to report how much more their executives are being paid than the average worker. there is an attempt for that

information to be put out there so people know what is going on. host: we should charge earlier of total deficit and that as a percentage of gdp. know the difference between deficit and debt. thest: the deficits' difference between what the government takes in between taxes and other sources. the difference between taxes and spending. ae cbo expects there to be 450 billion dollar difference. that is an annual deficit. thaning 400 billion more we taken. that is relatively low compared to the past 6, 7 years. in 2009, 2010, the deficit topped $1 trillion a year. of debt is the accumulation those annual deficits. we have what is called debt owed

to the public, around $13 trillion or $14 trillion. our economy is $17 trillion. we do have a large and growing economy, and many economists feel it can handle that dead in the short run. but most would like to see it come down the next decade or two. is on fromr washington, d.c. caller: thank you for taking my call. i have a question about the ofect of the trillions dollars in student debt and how that could depress our economy. specifically because it makes the individuals who carry that dead less fluid -- that debt less fluid and more risk averse at a time when they should take more risks in their entrepreneurship choices. does that make us less affected and how does that affect the macroeconomy?

guest: good question. we are definitely seeing some evidence that younger americans , studentarrying debt debt, averaging about $30,000 per person graduating. it is likely they are less toely to buy homes, likely delay that major purchase. maybe less likely to buy cars. it is something that will likely -- that is a burden for many young people. a lot of economists see that as something holding back growth. the hope is that with more people going and staying in school and getting more education over the long run, that would have offsetting benefits with more educated and highly skilled workforce. it is a concern that has grown rapidly. there is evidence people are have a hard time paying that off. it is government-backed to a

degree, so it will not be as bad as a couple years ago. host: just a couple minutes left with thes rugaber, associated press, who covers financial markets. if you want to call in, republicans, (202) 748-8001. i am sorry, we are doing them regionally. eastern and central, (202) 748-8000. mountain and pacific, (202) 748-8001. we will be joined in a few minutes by a roundtable where we talk wall street and stock market regulation. we do our lines republicans, democrats, and independence in that segment. but chris rugaber. one more from twitter. some folks trying to understand china's economy with all the impact china has had recently on the u.s. stock market. was china's growth period related to their capitalistic

policies and current decline to their reverting back to central control? guest: some of that is true. both aspects of that question have something to them. china tried to, open its economy and become more market oriented. it grow attely helps rates faster than most advanced economies. not know if they have completely reversed course. there were some things they tried to do, such as limit a drop in the stock market. sharesent was purchasing in its own stock market to try to prevent a stock market collapse. that did not work well. some of that is true. but there is a lot of other causes. they are trying to shift them and export-oriented economy, where most of their growth comes from companies shipping steel and manufactured goods, electronics, overseas.

to build a more consumer-oriented economy with china's middle class, which has grown. that is a more sustainable and stable form of growth. ist transition is causing -- one of the challenges they face. ,ost: ted is in beaver falls pennsylvania. good morning. caller: you guys were talking about banks and the federal reserve renting money and giving it to them. i do not know if i am remembering it wrong or if they change that regulation, did they not used to have you could just walk in and give them a $20 bill and say i want 20 $1s? also government checks. u.s. treasury checks. since they got free money from us, that they got to -- that they had for their services,

what happened there? in terms of changing currency, i think that is something most banks can still do. i do not think there have been changes-- regulatory that i'm aware of. your otheris question? caller: cash and treasury checks. i cannot just walk to the closest bank --because i have direct deposit on it inc. in another town for now. bank in another town for now. this cow in recent years, as some of them lost money and housing, some banks are stricter about the services they provide. you may well be having a harder time of doing things if you do account then 10 or five years ago. host: and bank regulations and

changes brought by the dodd-frank financial reform, which we will talk in our next hour. judy is waiting. go ahead. caller: yes. i am thinking that these banks are becoming international and way too powerful. they do not care about local needs and the people. politicians with their power. this is a dangerous thing. i think the banks need to be broken up like they did in the last century. guest: that is a view out there. the four or five a guest -- biggest banks have at least half the d positive in the u.s. there are still large banks and their is still concern about the risk they present if there is an economic downturn or if we have

such large tanks destabilize. -- such large banks destabilize. there are plenty of small banks for people out there if they want to take their business there. it is interesting that seven years after the financial crisis, we still have these large banks. the hope is some of the dodd-frank regulation has limited -- made them safer. to have ass likely financial crisis. at some of those worries are still out there, given that they are still large. host: darren, can you make it quick? caller: i will. how you doing. i wanted to touch on china and reverse engineering of american products. and piracy.

whenever there is a bootleg ofie in the states, a lot times, that movie has chinese writing at the bottom, indicating that they bought -- that they recorded the movie and are selling it over here. i think that is a big problem that is overlooked. i know you are an expert on china relations. hope that you would say something good about where are we going with china. can the overall stealing of american technology. i think it is under looked. we cannot be competitive if they are stealing our technology. been an issue. people do talk about it. the u.s. and china have an interesting relationship because it has been a profitable trade relationship on both sides.

you talk aboute has been an issue the u.s. government has pressured china a lot about. news is that today the obama administration will try to put new sanctions on china for economic espionage. there has always been an effort to get china to respond to things when they do copy or pirate. one of the interesting things is stealing technology is something a country does 18 is trying to catch up. -- is something a country does when it is trying to catch up. host: chris rugaber has covered trade issues and the national economy for the associated press since 2006. we appreciate your time. pointed viewers to "ap survey: dimmer outlook for u.s. economy, which is and hiring."