-- will preview the i will caucuses and expectations for democrats and republicans. as always, we will take your calls and you can join the conversation on facebook and twitter. washington journal is next. ♪ host: good morning, president obama traveling to capitol hill on tuesday to deliver his last state of the union address p live coverage on c-span. the backdrop of this speech includes the upcoming primaries in thisuses presidential election year. the front page of today's new york times, for republicans, fear of a lasting split as class division of reps. in the washington post, the candidates are selling fear and stark warnings about what happens if the other party wins in november.

it is sunday, january 10, and we are going to begin with your calls and comments and stories important to you. open phones for the first half hour of today's washington journal. then, we turn our attention to the iowa caucuses three weeks away and the new hampshire primary just a month away. four democrats, 202-748-8001 for republicans. .or independents, 202-748-8002 @cspanwjd us a tweet or redoes on facebook. jonathan martin is writing this morning, front page of the new york times. i story about splits among classes in the republican party. it begins with these words. the republican party is facing a historic split over its fundamental principles and identity as its once powerful establishment grapples with an option of class tension, ethnic resentment and mistrust among

working class conservatives who are demanding a presidential nominee who represent their interests. are expressing a groan. of the coming election could be shattering for the party or reshape it in ways that are unrecognizable. from jonathan martin and patrick healy, front page of the new york times. this story also available online on el chapo and sean penn. the new york-based is calling it el jerko. the mexican drug lord known as el chapo, by 15, he said in an interview conducted in a jungle clearing by actor sean penn for rolling stone magazine, he had began to grow marijuana and copy because there was no other way for his family to survive. his fortune estimated at $1 billion is coming to a trail of blood. he does not consider himself a violent man.

a portion of the interview has been posted online at rollingstone.com. you will hear his words and the translation at the bottom of the sea -- screen. perio

host: it is called el chapo speaks. a portion of it has been posted on the rolling stones website. you were able to hear his words and the translation of the bottom of the screen. you can see it online at rollingstone.com. your calls and comments on the sunday morning. tilde from flushing, new york. caller: good morning. i was watching donald trumps -- a woman, a muslim woman was protesting and was pushed out. -- i think of bit my sisters or mothers. protesting in america is a right. this woman, she didn't insult, she was standing there. accept such kind of protest, what kind of message are we giving to the world? some of us are behaving like

gangsters. language, the people throwing their fists. is this the way american democracy is staging itself for the world? wait a minute, what did she do? her own right protesting, standing, saying i am here. i'm really disappointed. host: thank you for the call. where are you from? caller: originally, i'm from ethiopia. i came here 30 years ago. this is the country we grew up in in a very good way. culture, nobody has talked to me in the last 30 years in new york city asking you for identification for this is what america is about. nobody can come and tell you who you are, what you look like. now, wearing that kind of uniform, muslim woman with the

jaab.- with hi donald trump asterisk himself say wait a minute. she didn't do anything. that is very disgusting for me. host: thank you for the call. jody has this tweet on donald trump. it is really flying off to the right with his stump speech. red meat for the hate filled and bigoted republican conservatives. bob is next, good morning, pittsburgh. caller: good morning. it is funny, after hearing that guy what i have to say. i'm looking at germany, switzerland, finland being accosted by muslims, growth, rate. , in seeing on the news germany, they brought over one million muslims from other countries and are finding out some of them are syrians that are doing this. 500,000ke they brought

bill clinton's into germany do way everything is going. i haven't seen anything on the press or newspapers or tv. fromf the channels germany, i can't remember where, it might be france, they had captions underneath. it will happen in this country. between obama, stevie wonder, helen keller, they don't see anything. i am trying to figure out, it is hard to understand. host: thank you very much for the call. you may not remember the name of edith childs, but president obama and 2007 and 2008 asked the crowd, fired up come ready to go? fromis where a slogan came while he was on the campaign trail and south carolina. he talked about the story. we interviewed her during the 2008 campaign coverage. she will be back in the state of the union, sitting in the first

lady's box. the story saying they are fired up for obama's address inside the washington post. two campaign icons will be in attendance for the final state of the union address. live coverage gets underway at 8:00 eastern time. the president speech at 9:00 eastern, 6:00 on the west coast followed by the republican response followed by nikki haley who we covered yesterday in columbia, south carolina at the camp forum. no winner. now, a jackpot of $1.3 billion. the largest in north america. the associated press is writing about the story. that means the record payout which would have been $949.8 million increases. nobody matched all six winning powerball numbers yesterday. the odds of winning, one in 292 million. officials of the multistate lottery association which runs the powerball game says they expected 75% of the possible

number combinations would have been but for last night's drawing. since the november 4 drawing, the jackpot has grown from $40 million to excess of $1 billion. the powerball is played in 44 states as well as in washington, d.c., virgin islands, and puerto rico. columnist, --, columbus, ohio. caller: what is on my mind is something no one is covering. in 48 -- in 1940, i was going to college in michigan. my boss said if you can work 30 hours, i will make you a full-time employee. i said i can do that, boss. time, wife,quired insurance, medical. sharing. year, profit today, most companies, including banks, and i wish c-span would cover this, steve, you are a good man. anyway, they aren't hiring people for full-time work in

less they get 35 hours. i know one company you have to work 40 hours to get benefits. -- they hire for 30 hours, 32, 34, but not 35 because then they have to pay benefits. could you cover this some morning? i would greatly appreciate it. these kids don't know what they are getting taken for a ride. they are not getting these benefits. i don't know if you have been aware of this. it really gets me. it shouldn't bother me because i'm a veteran, 86 years old, going on 87. by gosh, it burns me up that nobody in the media is covering this and i would greatly appreciate it if brian would cover it on c-span. the only place i know because these other companies are

controlled by big corporations. they don't give a darn. host: who did you work for for those many years? caller: thank you. host: i said who did you work for? sheridan from: this, ohio. donald trump mentioned it yesterday. timeditor at large for magazine on how trump won. now, he just needs the votes. david has this tweet. maybe our next millionaire lottery winner will afford a political career, no experience necessary. lakeland, florida, democrats line. caller: how are you? host: i am fine, how are you? fine, thank you. i am 73 years old, been on social security for 11 years. i cannot understand why no one

has investigated how much money the federal government has stolen, borrowed, embezzled from social security? they say they were going to pay it back, but they never have. our system is going bankrupt. our senior citizens are hurting. i haven't had a raise in two years. prior to that, obama stopped in for three years. giving us a cost-of-living increase. of $15.da, my rent one guess what? the last rays i got from the government was nine dollars. it is outreaching. somebody needs to investigate how much money they owe us and get these candidates that are running for president to see what they can do to fix that. host: do you have any retirement savings? anything in addition to social

security? caller: yes, i do. i took 30% of my salary from the time i was in my early 20's until i retired. i put that into the 401(k). host: good for you. caller: that is only worth $200,000. i am married to a younger woman, 24 years younger. she is going to need that money to live on. social security system would have been paying me almost double what i'm drawing now. had lyndon johnson not introduced a bill in the vietnam to use theorize him social security fund to pay for the vietnam war. that is ridiculous. it has never been closed up. it has never been stopped. host: that is only part of the story. you are also talking about an almost $19 trillion debt that we have is going to be paid off.

if he went back one trillion seconds, you would have to go to 30,000 bc? caller: that is very true. they are notthat even contemplating paying the money back. they think it is a money pit. secretary a job as a for one of the nonprofits, we had to take money out of our employees salary for social security and income tax. if a person had two children at home and take no income tax but still had to pay social security. social security was paying the government more in social security than i was in income tax. i know that the money is going into the government. it is just going out faster because of all of the presidents that are rating it. obama is no better than the rest of them. host: thank you very much for the call from lakeland, florida. let's go next to darrell joining

us from bedford, ohio. republican line. caller: how is it going today? host: fine, thank you, how are you? caller: great. i want to talk about radical islam and political correctness. when we talk about the war on terror and the tear -- term radical islam. you hear president obama talked about islamophobia, hillary clinton saying terrorism has nothing to do with islam, that is pretty ridiculous. has everything to do with islam. we have to be able to have this conversation. islam isn't just a religion. islam is a government. islam isve to realize sharia law. people grow up where you have islamic governments. governments run based on the koran.

people growing up in a environment where it is the -- women can't drive, have to cover their face. if a woman is raped, they look for ways to blame her instead of the man. people get stoned. when you have muslims growing up in the environment, they think there is no historical context, they take everything literally. when they read a verse in the corunna says chased down unbelievers and chop off their heads and hands, everything is taken literally. host: thank you for the call from bedford, ohio. we welcome our listeners, not only on c-span radio which is heard on xm, but also on channel 124, serious xm comedy potus channel where we are carried live every sunday when from 7:00 until 10:00 a.m. also to our viewers in great britain on the bbc parliament channel. eventco writing about an we covered live in its entirety yesterday in south carolina.

the cap forum moderated by senator scott and house speaker ryan. struggling gop contenders relish the moment to ignore donald trump. hooting donald trump and a ted cruz overflow crowd this was not. trump tax stadiums across the cruz treksd through iowa, the gop desperate for traction. -- points onr part tax credit, public education, and how they can alleviate poverty in what was the sedate and serious can't form on expanding -- can't form on expanding opportunity. you can check that out anytime at www.c-span.org. with regard to the earlier caller from florida, this response from viewers. you silly caller, your money doesn't belong to you, it it wantselong to you, to the government and given to people who want free stuff.

on topics interesting to you, democrats line. want to say from the guy from florida, if you want that social security mama -- money, run for office and you can get right into it. host: there you go. caller: i was watching trumps rally from clear rake -- lake. in the same sentence, he said if you are born from america and one from a legal parents, you are not american. if you are born from canada, you are not american. host: you must've read my mind. i want to read a story. can you stay on the line caller: yes. host: this is from the washington post a rule that is un-american taking aim at the 14th amendment and sang in the photograph, there are some including jennifer graham, the former governor of michigan, ted cruz and arnold schwarzenegger one and a former country. it doesn't focus as much on ted cruz as it does on this point.

in an increasingly globalized age of international adoptions, the restriction sends an ugly, discouraging message to these children and other naturalized citizens that they are less than fully american. it is the kind of us crematory treatment that would be deemed unconstitutional where the rule not embedded in the constitution itself. she basically says it is time to change it. caller: i don't think that is true. host: wife? -- why? caller: i think you should be american born and raised. you can run for any other office , any position in the cabinet, but president, that is an all-american thing. host: it also changes the succession of the presidency and secretary of state in line for the presidency of summit should happen to the president and speaker of the house. she points out that the two recent secretaries of state, henry kissinger one in germany

and madeleine albright would not be eligible. caller: that is right. i don't know how they would deal with that. that brings up all kinds of things. host: thanks. we may use that as a question down the road. ruth marcus, a rule that is un-american focusing on the 14th commitment to the u.s. constitution. let's go to michael joining us from louisville, kentucky. welcome to the program. caller: i just want to respond to the first caller you had. about the islamic woman that was thrown out of the trump rally. with what happened with bernie sanders and the black lives matter, taking over the microphone. in trump rallies were you had protesters screaming and people couldn't hear the speech that was going on. they were removed. we haven't seen what this woman has done. .e only know she was taken out

they interviewed her afterwards. before you make a judgment on why that woman was removed, you need to know why she was removed . how her actions were and how her behavior where during the rally from which she was removed. that is all i wanted to say. make sure you know all of the facts before you make a statement. host: thanks. a lot of people tweeting on the earlier caller about social security and the government using that for other programs in the federal government. richard rogers has this follow-up. social security is solvent until 2034 at which time they can pay .6% of what it promised another earlier caller saying the government is required to pay back the social security money it borrows. william from quincy, massachusetts, democrats line. you are on the air. good morning. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. i would just like to express

their is a lot of division in the country. i listen to people complain about angst they have to pay for -- things they have to pay for. i don't think it is right that republicans should have to pay for planned parenthood. i don't believe they should have to pay for welfare. i think there should be a tax code that should exempt them. on the other side of the coin, i believe these programs should no longer be available to those americans that choose not to pay into these programs. this, these people would be able to choose not to participate in these programs and we would remove their complaint. produce a wall that is dividing americans today. host: thank you for the call. foundersall saying the knew what they were doing. a president should be a native american. james large, editor at large,

posted a piece that is also on the drudge report. trump could win it all. talking about it last night in cedar falls, iowa. if donald trump proved that the political universe was wrong in the republican nomination, he would be creamed by hillary clinton, correct? a new survey of likely voters may at least raise concern for democrats since it suggests why it would not be a cakewalk. by washington-based mercury analytics is a common nation online questionnaire and dial test of trumps first the campaign at among 916 self-proclaimed likely voters. it took place last wednesday and thursday. nearly 20% of likely democratic voters say they would cross site and vote for donald trump while a small number, 14% of republicans claimed they would vote for hillary clinton. we are live in new hampshire, hopkins, new hampshire. hillary clinton gets the

endorsement of planned parenthood. cecile richards will be on hand for the event. you can watch it live getting underway at 4:00 eastern time on the c-span network. little rock, california, independent line, good one. caller: good morning, steve. i have to point i would like to ask you. yesterday's show, you had the young lady, the illegal immigrant on your show. -- you like to find out never put any republicans on the phone yesterday. second, you are not telling the truth about how many illegal immigrants there actually are here in the united states. 12 million.ng the you have been using that since ronald reagan became president. there don't understand is are 100 million illegal immigrants here. you talk about our unemployment. it is ludicrous. host: where did you get 100

million? caller: because i have seen what is going on with our communities. host: how did you come to the number? from michelleeard -- fox on saul centers news, was she has been saying about this. they seem to keep it quiet. host: i understand your point, but i'm just curious because in a country of 300 million, you're saying one in three americans is here illegally. caller: correct. what i have heard is one third is the hispanic immunity. how do you come up with one third the hispanic community when there is one third of the amount of population is hispanic? thank you. host: thank you for the call. if you want to watch the interview, with all the programming, it is posted on our website. next is carl, berkeley springs,

west virginia, on the line for republicans. good morning. caller: steve, did you watch the interview with the mayor of philadelphia? the guy shooting the cop. host: i saw the story yesterday. police got up and said the guy did it in the name of islam. he was a follower of islam. no!mayor gets up and says it was not done in the name of islam! that guy reminds me of baghdad bob in iraq when we invaded iraq. he would get on television and say we were driving all of the americans out of iraq and captured so many. me of. what he reminded when he got up and said on the television and started exposing -- espousing all of that stuff.

nobody in this room believes that guy did it for islam. the guy admitted it that is why he did it. mayor should be ran out of office. host: karl, thanks for the call from berkeley springs, west virginia. next is brian, pittsburgh, massachusetts, independent line. caller: good morning. my own business. i started with nothing. nobody helped me. in our what we need country. no politicians. if anybody out there thinks obama is running this country, they are as dumb -- if you want to know who is running this country, find out who the people are who are representative on the ttp trade agreement. those are the people running

this country. everybody is brain-dead. makenly that, we couldn't trade deals were we ship jobs to china. all of those companies agree to pay the 35% tax. all these companies bought the politicians and created loopholes so they don't have to pay tax. complaining about paying 35% tax when we are try to keep up with china militarily because they gave china all of our technology. they don't want to pay taxes. they don't pay any taxes. they put it in islands. everybody thinks it is obama, bush. they are not running the country. people need to wake up. thank you. , magazinetico focusing on the president, his final year in office. his white house chief of staff. his fifth chief of staff. obamas obama.

he has cycled through more chiefs of staff than any of his predecessors. denis mcdonough is the one who came to stay. this tweet saying the mainstream media has pushed a meme that illegals do the jobs americans don't want to do. it's become conventional wisdom. from the new york times sunday magazine, this as an interview with debbie wasserman schultz thinking women are complacent. inside this week's new york times sunday magazine. preston is joining us from georgia. good morning, democrat line. caller: i was wanting to know this man spoke earlier. you have to understand, you live in this country. correct? host: excuse me? caller: you live in this country, correct?

i don't understand how obama thinks he can let all of these illegal immigrants come in our country when we are already struggling enough like the man said with jobs and everything. they are taking everything. then they bring the drugs, guns. rightant to take away our to bear arms which is in our amendment. i don't understand that. host: this is a chance to provide your opinion. thanks for call. ne last tweet from a viewer. by the way, national journal and ron has six questions that could determine the election. available on line. ere are the questions.

it's available on line. we're going to focus the remaining part of the program on the two states that could set the stage. iowa and new hampshire. just a few weeks out before the caucuses followed by the prime rifment we'll have live coverage. kevin is going to be joining us from new hampshire and then chris to talk about the demographics of new hampshire. but first, "newsmakers" programs this week our guest is the chair of the house armed

services committee. we talked about his concerns with the president's overall military strategy, something the president is likely to touch on on tuesday's state of the union address. >> this pulling back doing the minimum necessary to avoid disaster, that sort of thing has as proven, to increase danger. of course we could also talk about the red line in syria which not only did not help syria but it dissolutioned allies around the world and among other things has led them to have less trust in us. so there is a long list of things. something that the president would acknowledge that didn't work right, i would give me confidence that he is able to look at the world as it really is. >> to go back to your point about boots on the ground, the obama administration's military strategy relies a lot on

partner forces, whether iraqi security forces or the sort of syrian troops. the week began with iran and saudi arabia having a lot of tension, saudis and other gulf states cut off their plotic relations. are you worried that sort of sectarian strife could affect the grouped forces that the u.s. is relying on? how do you see the tension? >> i am worried about that. i think that this tension, this escalating tension between iran and saudi arabia makes everything more complicated and more dangerous. and i think you can make a pretty good case that saudi arabia has felt increasingly isolated as a result of the nuclear deal with iran, that the administration put forward, because of the restrictive rules that the administration has put on our people in iraq. and in syria.

and you see what is happening in yemen, saudi arabia is feeling surrounded. so that has i think in part led to some of the actions that we have seen. but there's no question that iran feels emboldened, saudi arabia feels threatened, and this escalation of tensions creates a more dangerous world for the middle east including or our troops for that region. >> we hope you tune in for c-span's "newsmakers" program. host: joining us from new hampshire, the chief political

correspondent, formerly longtime reporter and columnist. good sunday morning. thank you for being with us. guest: thanks for having me. host: let me share with you one of the headlines, which gets to one slice of the new hampshire electorate. it points out that senator rubio is trying to broaden his appeal in new hampshire but aces skepticism. explain what's going on up there for senator rubio and within the republican party. guest: sure. with regard to senator rubio he made an interesting statement where he essentially said you have to be in touch with the voters' mood. that's what is different about this election and this primary up here. it's really not about the issues. it's really not about the resume. it's not even about the

personality of donald trump. it's about voter mood. voters are angry and frustrated. and rubeyow said if you're tuned in to that. there's no way they're going to vote for you for president. so that's his challenge to try to tap into that anger and let voters know that he feels it, too, but to try and produce a constructive agenda of moving forward. in the io is involved next month leading up to this primary in what's going to be a food fight between who is going to be the alternative. and that has already begun on the air waves with negative ads with campaign events, and the fight is going to be between john casic, chris christie, marco rubio, and jeb bush. only one is going to emerge as the alternative to donlt trump.

obviously ted cruz has his showing in iowa going for him. if he is able to actually win iowa he can come here as wem and be a real player so that's rubio's dilemma right now. host: do you have any sense that any of those so-called establishment candidates would withdraw before the new hampshire primary? guest: i don't think so. at one point months ago i felt that was the case. i really felt like a number of candidates would have dropped out. more candidates would have dropped out by now. as you know we still have 12 candidates for this race. it's a dizzying pace for my counterpart to follow and myself with 76 events last week. i think these candidates, the establishment candidates have too much money, too much support, too much at stake to drop out before there's an

actual vote. so i think many of them will drop out perhaps after new hampshire if the result is a particularly negative one for them. host: let's take a look at the demographics of the new hampshire electorate where there are about 874,000 registered voters. and we talk about this every four years but it's interesting to point out that undecided is of argest category of 44% the electorate followed by republican at 30%, dramatic at 26%, and reminder back in 2012 the last contested republican primary mitt romney winning followed by then congressman ron paul, governor hutsman, senator san tax reform and house speaker newt gingrich. as you look at those numbers what does that tell you about 1e6? >> what it really tells us about 2016 is where is that big

block going to go? meaning the undeclared, unenrolled independent voters. as you know, up here in new hampshire we have a couple of things going for independents. first off we have election day registration. you can actually register to vote on primary day and cast a ballot. second, for independents they can go into the polling place, they can grab whichever primary ballot they want either democratic or republican, and then when they leave the polls they can change back to independent. it's a very friendly, user frndly environment. that's why so many indnlts take part. why is that important? well, right now polls are showing that indbts are 20 mrts more likely to vote in the republican primary than in the democratic primary. that's bad news for bernie sanders if that holds up. his hope of a clossle upset of

hillary clinton really rests on an enormous voter turnout. but if all those vote republican he has lost those folks. it's the same thing, frankly, that happened to bill bradley against al gore in 2000. all those independents went in and voted for john mccain who beat george w. bush in that republican primary. great news for john mccain. bad news for bill bradley. bernie sand sers hoping history doesn't repeat itself. host: talking about the divisions in the g.o.p. oin eggy noonan's head points out the following. guest: i think again the

republican party is struggling with the old paradigm no longer works. which is the republican party was the trusted party in which it's so and so's turn. with every primary with the modern primary in 1925 with the republicans it's always been someone's turn. it was bob dole's turn. it was john mccain's turn. it was george w. bush's turn, it was mitt romney's turn. in this primary it's really nobody's turn and donald trump has turned the race on its head and is campaigning in a way that establishment candidates almost never campaign. i mean, think about this. what other -- have you ever seen an establishment republican can't date turn and boo the press which is what donald trump does in almost every really he is?

have you ever seen a republican presidential candidate make the gaffs and issteps or have their popularity increase not decrease? that's what usually happens. so that's what the establishment is going through right now. what do we do with this guy trump, and even ted cruz is a threat to the establishment as you know on capitol hill. and those are the two people with the big mow right now. host: this is a photograph of time magazine in massachusetts at the paul tsongas arena. he ran for president in 1992. a huge crowd. as the "washington post" pointed out the campaign manager is from lowell. d they have been able to tap into many communities often overlooked by presidential

candidates. guest: and we've seen this even nationally. he's gone to biloxi, mississippi. he's gone to a number of places all over the country that are either underserved or felt left out where unemployment is higher and he's tapped into that amminger and frustration and getting these enormous crowds. more than 3,000 in burlington, vermont, the home of the place that elected the socialist mayor bernie sanders decades ago. but he keeps turning out these crowds. and the events have a different plaver than is typical. he put out a statement at the burlington event in which he said i'm taking care of my people. i'm not interested in the people who are undecided or who won't vote for me. i'm loyal to my people because they're loyal to me.

as you know, in new hampshire presidential primary talk that's political hersy. mean, candidates, the playbook for candidates to campaign in new hampshire is to have undecided voters come to their events and to win them over. but literally, every dommed trump event and rally is like a cult following. i got some polling from a democratic source earlier this week that showed in new hampshire donald trump's unfavorable rating is as high as 65%. now, that's scary to every republican opponent. why? it says that virtually everyone who has a favorable viewpoint of donald trump is voting for him here. they've already decided they're with him here. as i pointed out earlier, with

all the either missteps or controversies, many of those folers have remained loyal to him. it's a very solid following. as i say, for all the other establishment candidates it's frightening. host: our guest is the chief political correspondent. his work is available on line at nh 1.com. he began his career in massachusetts with the lowell son. a great friend of the c-span networks. we always appreciate having him on. he is joining us from manchester, new hampshire. we have a line set aside for those who live in the granite state. we begin with senator marco rubio one of a number of candidates in south carolina yesterday for the forum. you can check it out on our website. he came out with a new ad taking aim at one of his chief

rivals. >> host: that ad which focuses on chris christie and that paragraph right before the 2012 election as hurricane sandy hit the new jersey coast. i remember back in 2012 that a lot of republicans taking aim at governor huntsman who served as the u.s. ambassador to china. is this resonating any differently in 2016? guest: it's certainly not helpful to him.

but it's not getting the kind of traction against chris christie i think it would if he hadn't been spending a lot of time campaigning here. he's been here more than 65 days campaigning in new hampshire almost as much as any other candidate in the race. he has held a number of town halls. he built up a reservoir of support here. he has a prominent group of endorsements on his team. a number of legislative leaders, former speakers of the house. so that's helpful to him. re, you was saying befo never want to be with a month left the subject of an attack ad from one of your opponents. and as you know it's not the only one up there. jeb bush's own super pac has an ad up talking about the other governors in this race, chris christie and john casic and why jeb bush is preferable to them.

and raising some of these same issues. taxes with christie, casic supporting medicaid expansion. so that's certainly what rubio is trying to tap into and it can be a problem. and ink as i said earlier i think it's going to get more negative not less. host: saying that senator rubio has been spoon fed in every election and would not be a vibling nominee against hillary clinton. guest: and has also raised governor christie as has others, have raised senator rubio's less than stellar attendance record in the u.s. senate. ost: we have this tweet. guest: certainly new hampshire

is economically very solid. it's one of the more wealthiest states in the country, one of the top ten states of per capita income. but there's -- it's a very small state. it's largely a rural state. it has a couple of population centers but it's largetly a rural state. it's also a very white state. it's one of the whitest states in the country where having growing minority populations but they're still relatively small. f course, is highly educated population. highly tuned in to high technology. employees in much larger numbers and percentage have high tech skills and computer skills than do the populations of most states in the country.

ost: let's hear from matt 6789 caller: good morning. and thank you for c-span. i really enjoy the ability to speak. when they came on line i was really hopeful that we would have a news program that would just be a little more open with people. i have not yet seen your news channel cover the poisoning of thousands of people in flint, michigan. i haven't seen you do much coverage on the terrorist standout in oregon on the national wild life refuge. and i've been getting bombarded with political ads for four months. pay to watch my hockey games

not to get political ads on my hockey games. he's very true in how he described new hampshire and it's very correct. very intelligent people and high tech. we are a rural state, small state but very independent. i'm registered as an independent. host: are you go to vote? caller: without a doubt. i've never missed an election in my life and i'm 57 years old. host: who is your candidate? caller: at this point, bernie sanders. but i may vote in the republican primary. i'm not sure yet. host: if you vote in the republican primary who would you vote for? guest: i would probably vote for casic. host: because? guest: because he's a moderate. he's willing to work. he's proven he can work across the aisle. my big problem with politics now is we are just too

politically divided. host: thanks for the call. guest: certainly with regard to the unrest in oregon we have reported that story. the family from rochester is politically active in circles. susan, state representative, they've been very active. her husband has gone out there to support folks who are protesting the bureau and we've interviewed him. but pleeskeep turning in and we appreciate all the input you provide to us. but i think matt does represent a lot of voters in new hampshire. p independents who are, as we were talking about earlier, trying to decide do i want to try to voke republican? where do i want to send my snadge? independent voters are notoriously strategic.

they often want to take part in the primary where they think they will have the greatest impact. host: alicia joining us from buffalo, new york. good morning. caller: i was calling because i wanted to vote for somebody that's going to do right by our ountry and not going to be going against our president. because they've been doing that lately. host: so who is your candidate? caller: i want somebody whose going to do right by us. host: thank you. any response? guest: yes. a very good point. barack obama only the second win at since f.d.r. to the new hampshire four elect tral votes twice. very popular in this state

here. there isn't any question about it. but absolutely right, all republicans have nothing good to say about barack obama and bernie sanders, you've heard the adds, talked about we live in a rillingd economies where billionaires play the tune and the rest have to follow the music. i think hillary clinton is the only one who spends a lot of time talking about trying to complete the barack obama agenda and also extended and put her own stamp on it. host: if you look back since 1988, that was the last time in a competitive primary new hampshire veeters voted for the candidate who went on to be president. that was bush. since then, bill clinton lost

new hampshire, won new hampshire to barack obama by a narrow percentage voint. mccain winning. i mention that because there's a headline this morning on the relevance and importance of the new hampshire primary. the question is to whether or not new hampshire will be first in 2020. guest: he's absolutely correct. texas republican champ had wanted to bring to this week's republican national committee meeting in south carolina a rule change to take away new hampshire's primary. ted cruz the texas senator who

is a good friend of the republican chairman talked him into withdrawing that proposal at this time. and has said it's preposterous to talk about changing new hampshire's primary status. as bill, the longtime secretary of state, the longest serving state election official in the country, has said this is the first time he set the primary date in february 9th, of course this is the first time he hasn't had to break either democratic or republican primary rules in setting the date. despite a lot of the unrest we've heard from harry reid, republican s, the national chairman about sake red cows and getting rid of the new hampshires. there's been no threat to the first primary from another state in this cycle. that is unique but there isn't

any question that after this e lecks they will be moved in both political parties to try and dilute new hampshire's influence. as we're seen time and time again. our greatest weapon is our voters. how involved they are, how big the turnouts always are. and our second greatest weapon are our candidates and the president's who get elected who say don't do anything to change new hampshire. new hampshire is unique in that we have to meet real voters, we have to actually convince them to support us. it's not airport tarmac press conferences and slick dam pain ads that make up the entirement of the campaign in most states across america. so slongs we have candidates and the national media singing the praces of new hampshire there are going to be challenges but i think we will

survive them. host: a tweet. caller: good morning. i just wanted to make a comment cammed candidate who these rallies and the protesters are using the wrong platform. if these protesters -- it doesn't matter who they are, republicans or democrats, at an opposite rally are using the long platform for their protests. so any candidate, republicans, democratic, oregon dependent that wants to have a protest ushered out should do so. because they're not in the right place. host: thank you for the call. guest: thank you for the call and the comments.

what's interesting about this cycle is that -- and it goes back to what i was talking about earlier about the high unfavorable rating in general for donald trump. he's the only one who is getting a lot of proteggers at his events. there aren't a lot of them at chris christie's or hick's events. certainly -- hillary clinton's events. we'll give you all kinds of research and talking points about the candidate who will be speaking inside. but donald trump has protestors at almost all of his rallies and has been very surgical of ushering out people mo raise protests because in his mind they're invading not the privacy of the event but the sanctity of the event that's taking place there. and whenever these folks are

ushered out it's met with huge loud applause from all of trump's u.s.ers. crowd one of the most pleasing parts of every rally. host: another viewer said i would like to see a national primary day. one for republicans and one for democrats. is that practical? guest: boy, i don't know. i certainly -- you're hearing that more and more that there is. and particularly with technology the way it is today we could always vote -- we wouldn't have to go to the polling place we could vote with our smart phones. ut i'm not sure that's the way we want democracy to work. i think americans intensely like the give and take that occurs in presidential

primaries and caucuses like yamplee and new hampshire. i wanted to also address your earlier question about new hampshire not always picking the winner and iowa. former governor and white house chief of staff john sewn uneu said iowa picks corn. that's not entirely correct. it is true that of the last 1 people who have been elected new ent, they've all won hampshire. meaning 13 of them won new hampshire. but back to the point. most voters here in new hampshire don't believe it's their job to pick the president. most voters think it's their job to make the choice manageable for the rest of the

country. that's precisely why often people who don't get elected presidential. that's precisely why john mccain won in new hampshire. enough republicans said another bush? we're not sure. let's promote this guy mccain. that's why pat buchanan won in new hampshire. a lot of republicans say bob dole president? we're not sure. let's make sure there's a contest, and they promoted pat buchanan. bob dole a lovely man but many happened be to be right. in 2008 a lot of democrats said barack obama one-term senator. not a lot of accomplishment. gives a great speech. we're not so sure. so we voted for hillary clinton and created this knockdown, dragout fight to the nomination that everyone argues made

barack obama a better candidate and helped elect him president. >> we spent six days in new hampshire covering town hall john casic ncluding and bush. they've been posted. we're live today with hillary linton in new hampshire this jan. follow our coverage. our guest is kevin land again the chief correspondent. the first of the nation primary, new hampshire. donald joining us from port arthur, texas. good morning. caller: hello. i sure enjoy c-span and it gives you a chance to see that the people out there are just not informed of what's going on. they just don't get it. i'm a democrat but i didn't

vote for barack obama. barack obama was like you said a one-time senator. he didn't have the experience, he didn't have the know how. look where we are now. trillions in debt when we took office, we are over 19 in isis is getting to us. we had shb in here in houston arrested not that long weigh. and nobody seems to understand that we've got to put them down and get rid of them or else they're going to take over this country. host: thank you for the call. caller: thanks a lot for the call. he -- guest: he's right about one thing is about national security and the threat isis poses has become a much bigger issue than nine months ago wefment the attacks in paris, a number of advancements that

middle east has become a very issue. and to the detriment of some candidates. dr. ben carson has been motorly wounded by the fact that he doesn't have the mastry on foreign policy than he has ol on some of the domestic issues. that's certainly hurt him here in new hampshire and to some extent it's hurt him in iowa as well. i go to town halls and particularly at republican events, there's always an isis question. there's always a national security question. and it's often the first question that's asked. host: from the opinion pages of he "new york times."

let's go to joseph in kentucky. republican line. good morning. caller: good morning. thanks for tarking my call. i forget who said it but it would be easily googled. but someone said that elections are far too important ton left in the voters' hands. that's pretty funny. but i'm kind of disappointed as on certain ting candidates by the press. it's a tell tail sign when all the press reports on someone like donald audience. but equally tell tail sign is people that you don't cover and you don't hear anything about that have such grassroots followingings such as rand paul and he has so many people

sending him money and such a following that no other candidates can even touch him. i wonder why the press don't mention his name. it's like they've been ordered to not say anything about him. don't mention how he has done. i think the polls are really askewed. guest: thank you for the call. you're absolutely right that donald trump has been getting a lot of news coverage. there isn't any question about it. but we take our responsibility in new hampshire very seriously to cover all the capped dates and give them all time. just this past friday, we had paul our network for half an hour. of special programming. we call it fiscal fridays in which we ask the candidates the come in and hit down with our

political director and talk specifically about the national debt. the concord coalition is the cosponsor of this program. it's been very successful and it gives us an opportunity to give all of the candidates their equal time. and we've tried to do that. i think wmurtv has done that as well. they have conversations with the candidates and have given them time as paul, often likes to do four hours with four candidates he actually goes on the campaign trail and covering them equal gives time. rand paul is not showing up in the polls but there is no doubt he's got a strong grassroots organization in new hampshire. he announced his a 500 ds

supporter to that organization earlier this week. he has a gentleman named mike who is an expert republican campaign organizer running his campaign with experience and they've put together a very impressive network of people. so if the ground game counts for anything -- and i believe it does -- rand paul will outperform his poll numbers on february 9. host: you talk about the demographics of the voters and independents. we heard an ad from marco rubio but also this from bernie sanders who is vying against hillary clinton and governor mallie for a win in new hampshire. he appears on meet the press let's listen to what he has to say. >> you and donald trump are the big surprise political stories.

you've suggested that yur message about the economic inequality can appeal to the trump voters. plain how that happens. guest: well, many are working class people. and they are angry. and they are angry because they're working longer hours for lower wages. they're angry because their jobs have left the country. they're angry because they can't afford to send the kids to college. i think what trump has done successfully and take that anger and anti-anxiety and say to a lot of people, the reason for our problems is because of mexicans and he says they're all criminals and rapists. we've got to hate mexicans. what he says about isis, she's a terrorist and has to go up the spelling. this is a guy who has not want

to raise the minimum wage. he has said wages are too high. but he does want to give hundreds of billions of tax breaks to the top 1 to 4%. so i think we can make the case we can make the issue the raise turned. why the middle class is disappearing. that we need policies that bring us together. that take on the greed of wall street, the greed of corporate erica and create a mick that workses for all of us rather than just a the few. host: what you hear he is saying is it's a tale of two polls. showing the race competitive. naturally hillary clinton remains ahead significantly but a lot can happen between early february. guest: yeah.

and they can influence the race. we don't always follow what iowa does. but certainly if secretary clinton were to defeat bernie sanders in iowa and perhaps do it decisively, it would certainly hurt his mome mum here. you can hear the anger in bernie voice. and who can blame him. after all these low wage workers, to bernie sappeders they're my voters and they're going to donald trump. going back to what we are talking about earlier. unenrolled angry voters to vote in my primary secretary clinton is going to beat me in new hampshire despite the polls that show me ahead. host: fred from conquer, new

hampshire. caller: my question is does rubio have the wisdom to be the president of the united states? this guy's i look at him like a to, four year congressman who thinks he is qualified to be ppt to the united states. and then my other question is is as new hampshire goes so goes the nation. is that going to happen? host: thank you. guest: very good questions. ertainly senator rubio's relative inexperience compared to this race. certainly what's been a primary. until recently senator rubio's campaign stops here in new hampshire were less robust. but he has stepped up his

campaign schedule. he has talented people on the ground. he's got a very good campaign organization. but certainly governor bush, governor casic, governor christie, they would all if you asked them for rubio ready to be president if they would also say no. f would ask whether they u were qualified to be president they would say no. so as far as new hampshire goes so goes the nation. i believe in the general election that is by the time who rolls around new hampshire wins the electoral votes will be president of the united states. that's not a crap shoot but

it's certainly a friendly game of chance. the odds of us having one of the nominees is very good. we almost always have one of the nominees. we've had both. but many times, we have not. and we may not this time. host: and jan makes this final point. guest: what's i want resting he senator rubio is that engenders other than donald trump some of the most positive responses and some of the most negative at the same time and from different people. along with donald trump, senator marco rubio who seems

to have the look, who seems to have the way with words, the articulation, and sometimes the passion of a president. he still engenders among a lot of voters hate. that guy's not reedy. what gives him the right to be at the front of the line as we are pointing out. we'll see on primary day whether that negativity hurts him here. right now he's doing very well in the polls and like i said he's in a position to be the alternative to donald trump. he's just got to beat out these other governors to do it. host: we also appreciate your time and insights. chief correspondent for nh 1 news. see you in new hampshire. thanks very much for being with us. guest: it's an honor. thank you. host: thank you very much.

we will look at new hampshire the demographics of the state. who will be voting on february 9th. our guest coming up is a .olitical then iowa. you're watching and listening to c-span's "washington journal" on this sunday morning january 10. we're back in a moment. >> the reality is we started 70

years ago as a radio enterprise. we still do some radio. but our ability to shift mobile and social and put more resources behind it is certainly there and we're really no different than any other company that you and i know about who have had to do the same thing. there are times just as well. and that's our mission is to shift resources, energy, focus, and strategy to be more in the peer to peer conversation instead of the one to many types of conversation so that we can shift away from the stodgey old media to the new media. >> watch monday night 59 8:00 eastern. -- at 8:00 eastern. >> we need to know how many are coming to us. if they are not coming to us through our website and through

snap chat or redity or any of these other venues we should know that. >> tonight "washington post" executive editor talks about the changes of the post since he took over. he also discusses the depiction of his work in the movie spotlight. >> it's quite faithful to the broad outline of the investigation. i think it's important to keep in mind it's a movie not a documentary. you had to compress seven months investigation. and you had to introduce a lot of characters and the important themes that emerged over the ourse of that investigation. host: the demographics of the new hampshire voter. that's our topic as we're joined from new hampshire with

chris. he is a professor. thank you for being with us. we appreciate it. guest: happy to be here. host: new hampshire is 42nd with just over 1 million residents in the united states. the fourth lowest across the country. and it has the ninth highest per capita income. it's one of nine states with no income tax. it's one of five states with no statewide sales tax. it does however rely heavily on operty taxes and it includes finance, real estate and leasing. who is the typical new hampshire voter and the issues that are dominating this upcoming primary? guest: the typical vote ser likely to have a higher level of education, likely to be a bit wealthier. almost certainly to be white.

in terms of issues that they care about, in a lot of voters are just about everything. they talk about jobs, economy, national security. one local issue that has been a big factor in this race in particular has been drug abuse. there is an opiate abuse epidemic taking place in this state and that has managed to surprise a lot of the presidential candidates. candidates have held town hall meetings or given speeches on policy issues that were not on their radar. host: why is that a problem in new hampshire and across many new england states? guest: it's not specific to new hampshire. it's shared by the other states in northern new england. in terms of why part of it has to do with the decline of manufacturing jobs in a lot of communities, particularly in the northern parts of northern

new england. beyond that, in terms of why, i think that's a question that's sort of cosmic. host: who will vote on primary day? if you look back with a state of about 875,000 registered voters, about a quarter actually cast their ballots. that was in the republican primary. this year you have a contested democratic and republican primary. guest: that's right. and in 2008 the last time we had two competitive primaries the voter turnout rate was much higher. so that's what i would expect to see. host: when you teach students about new hampshire and the question is c.d. why are we first? what is your lee sponse? guest: in a lot of ways it's an accident to history. more and more states started to have presidential primaries. this was part of the

progressive era and a desire to have lets of an impact of party bosses or leaders to choose candidates. but it didn't stick around. by 1920 the other states had gotten rid of their primaries and we were just left there. out of at least in 1e9's stubbornness the primary stuck rooped but nobody paid attention until 1952. then for different reasons they had a love. truman lost. essentially put his name on the ballot without his full consent or participation. and dem straighted that he could win votes in a republican primary. that was enough to entice him into the race. we've simply stuck around. the political parties after gack in the 80s and 90s in

particular there were occasional moves to try to take e first of new hampshire's and bring it to other states. but today i think both parties have figured out that they can use this to their advantage. and it's like having a state with an infrastructure and a history of the primary place to begin. caller an earlier pointed out. we want to put these in perspective. first from the clinton campaign. >> america is not just electing a president. we're also electing a commander in chief. that choice matters. because strengthening the economy, making health care more affordable, raising incomes, all of that depends on us being both secure at home

and leading the world. i will get up every single day and do whatever it takes to we're safe and strong. host: do these adds resonate with the voters? guest: i think to a certain exat the present time they do. this particular ad is playing to clinton's strength in terms of national security and international relations. this is an area she is very comfortable with and an area that i think she sees an opening in contrasting herself with bernie sanders who is much more interested in economic issues. host: according to real care politics the average show sanders ahead. but a new poll out from fox news post christmas showing him up by 13 pths points over hillary clinton -- points over

hillary clinton. guest: that's right. and they have been very variable. they eetsdzer show them a lot or a few points. that shows a lot of instability. a lot of voters who have to make up their minds and we're only likely to see more adds. host: republican line. are you going to vote in the upcoming primary? host: caller: yes i'll be voting this year. one of the things i think is the field is so much broader this year for republicans. so it's made the decision making process much more involved. host: do you have a candidate? caller: well, i have a short list. just a few so far. host: do tell. caller: i've got casic and feerna. i like casey that's got a broad

egislative resume as well as one of the few candidates that do that. i like rubio and cruz but they're first year senators. i think we've seen what happens. they're both strong but need more experience before they get there. and that is the kind of experience. i like karlie because telling the real story from a public persona standpoint she gave expressive views in a way that people can kind of understanding as well. i think you've got to say for republicans as well. host: what are you hearing in new hampshire? guest: i'm hearing that he has a lot of options to choose from and as we all know when we go to a restaurant with an extensive menu sometimes it's hard to make a decision than very few. i think candidates and christie

bush are all competing for the same votes. hey're all fairly mainstream republicans, they all have fairly traditional resumes or biggest backgrounds in her case and all fighting for the same votes. i think that's why it's going to get intense among those all competing to be the main streen republican alternative to donald trump. host: this is the headline from just after christmas and the torque times for new hampshire independence. they may control the fates of donald trump and bernie sanders. kathy is next. good morning. caller: good morning. i'm calling because in previous years my husband and myself and now it's our daughter who is also a voter at the age of 18 -- have also enjoyed answering

poll questions. this year we're just getting deluged by calls a lot of them are polls because we can tell because we recognize the numbers. and we've pretty much ignored the calls now because we're just tired of it. i think we're not the only ones. it's interesting when i see how the polls come out. because i think -- i don't know. from what i hear from people where they're at or whether they're sleeshing there's very strong support for senator sanders. and i'm a democrat. but i think that it's -- i think it will be interesting to see what actually comes out on lection day. host: do you remember who you supported back in 2008 between hillary clinton, barack obama, and john edwards? caller: sure. i supported the president. host: thank you for the kpt.

guest: in terms of people being delugede with calls, i think that speaks to an issue that a lot are facing today which is that they're getting lower and lower response rates. fewer people have land lines in the first place. those caller: my question is this.

there are so many candidates out there, it is like a circus. but the deal is, they say so many plaintiff lies. both sides say lies. but some are more prolific at it. nobody calls them on it. later -- they let them keep going, running their mouths. what has happened to america that everybody likes to hear the hate? host: thank you for the call. complete yous a hear a lot on both sides. i do not know the candidates are necessarily lying more then they did once upon a time. i do think a particular social media is making it easier to get away with it. if you have a particular perspective, it is easy to go out and find people who agree with you, find people who will reinforce that. once we become misinformed the least -- we tend to stay misinformed.

tends to lead to a situation where media outlets are having a hard time being fair media brokers. you get fact checking organizations, but if your candidate or perspective is wrong according to a tactic the organization, people believe that something is wrong with the fact actors -- fact checkers. caller: my candidate is jeb bush. the question i want to ask them if they keep saying that donald trump is ahead. why does he have to spend $2 million now if he is so -- if he hasn't wrapped up? insed to be a fox faithfully, but they are for donald trump. jeb bush, if you look of a he is always in fourth or fifth place. he has a proven record. they cannot come back on him on

that. but donald trump, if he is the nominee, i am not voting. thank you. , you hears galdieri that sentiment from a viewer, your response? of thethat speaks to one surprising things about this election cycle, which is that the jeb bush give a is not been to gain traction. this time last year, when he was making noise about being the candidate people looked at him and so he had the right name. people thought he was a formidable candidate, if you thought he would be in the situation where he is now, where he is trailing donald trump in the polls. fourth or fifth place. others had him in a five way tie for second. to what ant speaks

unusual year this has been. for a candidate like donald trump to not just enter the race after flirting with this in cycle after cycle's as the late 1980's, but to be doing this well, and to be dominating the headlines, is really surprising i think. host: we are talking with chris galdieri, a graduate of georgetown university. from the doctorate university of minnesota. now he is part of the department anpolitics, serving as associate professor at st. anselm college. hans from harvey's lake, pennsylvania, independent line. good morning. good morning. the one issue that i have noticed that none of the candidates address is the issue of electronic voting machine fraud. there is ample evidence on the internet that this has occurred in the past. there was a man that gave legal

testimony before a court in ohio to the effect that he was hired by one of the bush campaign members. a lieutenant governor in a past thetion, to tweak electronic vote in favor of his election. he was giving testimony about the ease with these -- and that these machines can be hacked. that is a dangerous thing for the country because what is at stake right now, this is very likely to occur again. people are just unaware that this is even a possibility. host: thank you for the call, we will get a response. caller: i cannot be to that particular case, but this is one of the concerns that people have about electronic voting machines. people who are not the manufacturer are not sure how they operate. it is very difficult to do recounts if you have a close election.

in new hampshire we use optical scan ballots which are the gold standard for modern voting. the primary results should be pretty reliable. karen whoeet from says we should move to regional primaries, more representative of the nation but i will come in new hampshire. candidates cannot ignore the rest of the country. guest: this is a sentiment that you hear frequently. the difficulty with that is getting the states to courtney on something like that.

host: quoting pt barnum, if you want a crowd, start a fight. this cover story from time magazine in mind, how trans1. is this what donald trump is doing? guest: in a lot of ways, i think it is. late 80's, when he was not a national figure he was very good at working a very crowd.lt to work

that leads to an environment where every time donald trump says something outrageous, his full numbers go up and he gets more coverage. essentially, why would donald trump stop saying outrageous things when it is working so well for him so far? host: peter in georgia, republican line. caller: good morning. the preamble to the constitution -- the word

tranquility, and [indiscernible] meaning that a person should and should beful, at the level of clergy. and then i go to the person's whatnal life, and then they have done in their personal life, i found out that ben carson has set up reading rooms in 1 "the new york times""the washington post" -- in 112 for communities. he also has established a scholarship for predominantly poor black people who cannot afford college. and i look at what he has done, and his believe in the constitution.

host: thank you. dr. carson made many of those points yesterday in a maintenance and recovery live in -- in an event we covered live yesterday in south carolina. he couldn't catch it -- you can watch it on c-span.org. dr. carson has a very impressive resume in the background, and his medical career. i think the difficulty he has encountered is that expertise does not necessarily carry over into the political realm. politicaloctorate in science, but i'm not planning on doing brain surgery. carol, cnn,t from fox, and morning joe on msnbc gift from airtime because he is always ready to talk and he boosts ratings. i tend to agree with

that. but i would say that any candidate running for president would probably be glad to go on morning joe or any other news if they called. i think trump has managed to demonstrate that he is a ratings, andce of that is tough to compete with if you are rick santorum or lindsey graham, running for president. likelyearly 20% of democratic voters say they would cross sides and vote for trump. a smaller percentage of republicans say they would vote for clinton. if i hire percentage of the cross of democrats contend they are 100% sure of switching than the republicans. you can watch it online. caller, independent line. good morning. caller: i was just making a about trumpking

rallies, how many demonstrators he has been having. if you really stop and think between, the difference him and it reveals, he does not have any demonstrators at all. that is all i have to say. thank you now. host: professor chris galdieri? i'm not sure i quite followed lester's point, unfortunately. host: let's go to ryan in north even, connecticut. good morning. caller: good morning. i'm a fiscal conservative, social livery, which is the upcoming thing for young republicans today. i was wondering, if you feel that trunk and some of these other candidates are moving so far to the right, to this extreme level, that it has had a

significant change in the past couple of years? 10 years or so. they are so much to the right for the voters. do you think that will change anytime soon? they will not ostracize the republicans so much? guest: that is a really good question. i think the republican party has become a lot more conservative over the last 20 years or so. if you go back to the turn of the second set -- turn-of-the-century you had a lot of moderate republicans who were a gene force in the party. today.not see that when does that change? tochanges when it starts cost republicans elections.

so far that has not been the case. if you look at 2010, 2014, republicans did very well, winning control of the house of republicans and the senate. -- house of representatives, and the senate. political parties in general tend to stick to what is working with them -- for them. and to the right has worked well for republicans. is on the air most in new hampshire? guest: in terms of who is on the air the most, we have seen a lot of stuff from the jeb bush super pac. we are starting to see the rubio campaign get on the air. but in terms of specific numbers i do not know that one candidate is really far outpacing any of the others. we are getting to the point where you turn on tv in evening, and it goes to commercial break and four out of five going to be

for a presidential campaign. host: and if the author remains -- whether remains relatively mild, and still was not a factor, who has the strongest ground game? what can we expect in the primary? great question. my impression now is that the clinton campaign has a stronger ground game in the democratic primary. i live in concord, one of the fairly liberal areas has to support candidates like barack obama and howard dean over john kerry and hillary clinton in the past. i have not seen a lot of evidence of sanders campaign on the ground there. if they are not on the ground there, they are -- i'm wondering where they are on the run? groud. nd. on the republican side, i have not seen much in terms of .erifiable numbers

more paidalley had staffers than the entire republican field which is very surprising to me. between nowip up and the primary, but so far the republicans have not gone all in a terms of staff in the way you might expect. host: chris galdieri, a professor at st. anselm college, joining us from the states. thank you for being with us. we appreciate it. guest: happy to be here. before you get to new hampshire you want to travel through iowa. the first in the nation caucus is scheduled for february 9 coming up in a couple of minutes we will turn our attention to the iowa caucuses in the race there.

but first, to better understand i was role in the caucus -- i was role in the caucus system we want to show this microsoft web video. it talks about the caucuses themselves, but explained how technology like the results coming in on february 1. here's a portion available online via youtube and on the microsoft website. [video clip] >> this is iowa. every four years the world looks they cast their first opinion in the race. it is known famously as the iowa caucuses. so what is a caucus? defined as a is gathering of neighbors. but in reality, there is a bit more to it. the process differs between democrats and republicans, but their goal is the same. from the delegates precincts it will go on to represent the candidates at the

county, district, and state conventions, and ultimately at the democratic and republican national conventions let's start with the republican process. . islands are called to a public meeting was to discuss the presidential candidate personally prefer. ives -- representatives are typically here. discussion ends, and voters cast a secret ballot. points are tallied, and they are reported to the state party, which release them to the media. democratic caucuses are held on the same day, but the process is not based on ballots. the room is divided into sections. one for each candidate. participants physically arrange in cells into groups based on their preference. supporters than try to persuade their neighbors to switch groups for roughly 30 minutes, and then

they are counted. if they are smaller, the group is dissolved, and they could be for the members. once everybody is donovan red, the groups are counted again in the number of delegates assigned to each precinct is divided tween the groups using math. finally the number of delegates won by each candidate is reported to the state party which calculates delegate counts, and release those numbers to the media. host: joining us from des moines, iowa is dennis goldford. he is a professor of political science at drake university. is also a fellow at the harkin institute for public policy. thank you for being with us. we appreciate it. .uest: it is a pleasure host: we saw some background on how the caucuses work. as the system relevant, and as i would pick winners?

-- and does iowa pick winners? guest: that is a complicated question. iowa does not pick winners as much as narrow the field. what is significant about the caucuses, and they are rosen cons to the caucus process, but what is significant is that they tend to reveal unexpected strength and unexpected weaknesses in the candidates and campaigns. candidate is all about expectations. if you did better than expected you could finish second to someone who is expected to come in first, and that is a dog behind -- white man story. but if you come out of nowhere and finishes second, that is the big story. you're a bit wounded to come out of iowa by underperforming.

host: one of the big unknowns is who will show up on caucus night. and half one to two hours of residents gathering and farmhouses and gymnasiums and private homes. reasons whys six the gop may see record caucus turnout in iowa. one of the big variables is these huge crowds for donald the big question is does that translate into caucus attendance? guest: that is the big question. iowa is abuzz say with caucus fevers. actually not, with the exception of 2008, only one in five eligible party members actually shows up to participate in a caucus. 2008 was huge. that was two out of five eligible party members. caucuses, nos and more than roughly 17 to 20%

actually participate. these are private business meetings of the political parties. the stateot run by election machinery. the parties do their own totaling, which is why the microsoft app that has come about because of problems with people adding up and totaling votes on your public inside last time. as opposed to a primary or general election, where people had a 14 hour window from some :00 a.m. in the morning until 9:00 p.m. at night to decide what is the half an hour for me atvote, the caucuses are 7:00 p.m. on a monday night. not to commit to be there for a couple of hours. you have to hope there is no blizzard from the car starts, and the babysitter shows up. his methods that can be difficult to predict who will actually show up. new poll showing the race is a dead heat according to the fox news survey with ted

cruz at about 31% donald trump at about 28.5%. that very much within the margin of error. ted cruz has maintained a lead according to recent surveys. many were done right before christmas. guest: that is the case. but there is always what i call the santorum caveats. last time around 10 days or two weeks before the caucuses, which were early last time, rick santorum was pulling in the low to mid single digits. days or twolast 10 weeks he roared into a virtual tie with mitt romney. they thought romney one caucus night, two weeks later they determined santoro one. close enough it was a virtual tie. wonhat sense santorum because he vastly exceeded expectations. things changedas

the dynamic enough that they can change in last 10 days to two weeks. host: bernie sanders back in iowa this week. out with this ad focused on the issues involving the hundred million people who are below the poverty line, and taking aim at wealthy americans. [video clip] >> is the economy rigged? the 15 richest americans acquired more wealth in the last two years than the bottom 150 million people combined. i'm bernie sanders and i approve these message. provide living wages for working people ensure equal pay for women. the middle class will continue to disappear unless we level the playing field. with your help, as president, we will. ,ost: professor dennis goldford as you look at that out and talk about the ground game, how is the sanders campaign doing? that is the big question

on that side. he has something like 100 operatives here in the states. there is tremendous enthusiasm. the caucuses are about organization. organization with large enthusiasm, intense enthusiasm of a will beat organizations without enthusiasm. at the jefferson jackson dinner in the fall, the clinton supporters were there and they had their cheerleaders and they were enthusiastic and would applaud and share for hillary clinton. the o'malley forces were reflecting his position in the were much smaller group. but i have at caucuses for a number of years here in iowa and i was really astounded by the level of enthusiasm of the sanders supporters. they certainly got their people there and they got them revved up. the difficulty for the democrats is if sanders does not win, what

happens to these sanders supporters? do they stay with the democratic ticket, or do they go home? now, i know that the sanders campaign is talking about bringing in some more people from out of state to help encourage caucus-goers to turn out. we will see in three weeks. line set aside for those of you who live in iowa for the second half of our program as we focus on the iowa caucuses. , heguest is dennis goldford is a professor of medical science at drake university. harkin ran for president in 1992, which made that caucus relevant because the other candidates did not campaign. a very different story in 2016 were you having committed a race on the democratic and republican sides of the aisle. andy influence of super pac's including this latest by super pac's supporting jeb bush.

the focus is marco rubio. [video clip] >> marco rubio thinks it is unfair to criticize him for missing votes. but he is missing votes for a long time. >> one third of all of his votes were missed before he announced he was running for president. >> he has missed more votes than any other senator. washington politician marco rubio, doesn't show up for work, but once a promotion. -- wants a promotion. host: right now marco rubio is running third in the politics polling, which shows that third-place finish is going to be critical, assuring that ted cruz and donald trump continue to maintain their leads. correct? guest: that is. the old saying is that there are three tickets out of iowa. more thisa little year because of the availability of super pac money. we have to say that super pac

money did not help rick perry or scott walker. we typically say that there are three tickets out of iowa. , his campaign, and the super pac that supports and have been advertising quite a lot lately. yet the situation in which ted cruz is accurate, in which he said that typically in the past you have what we call the establishment side of the party, the more conventional business, corporate oriented republicans, unified around one candidates, and the various more populous, social, and religiously conservative candidates competed with splitting up the phone. this year, he argues, the more conservative people are tending to congregate around ted cruz. aroundve been for a bit ben carson.

the more establishment types, the more conventional business oriented types are split. they think of rubio is a positive alternative, although he is very conservative as well, as most people like christie and -- kasich. host: with the supreme court ruling on gay marriage how is that playing out in the gop? that motivates them tremendously. when i go into various forms in iowa, both democratic and republican, the sanders supporters do not like the way things have gone in the country's regard to corporate dominance. speaking, and this is my impression from having gone to a number of these, democratic supporters are relatively optimistic and positive. at the republican events there is a lot of fear.

there is a lot of anger. they focus on issues like illegal immigration national security and terrorism. and the state of the economy, but underlying all of that, i think on the republican side, particularly when there is a religious component like the faith and freedom coalition forums, there is a sense and fear for a lot of republicans , withhe america they know the values they think are importing, might be slipping away from them. the same-sex marriage ruling would be a prime case example of the kind of fear they have. from kathy is joining us delaware, republican line. for professor dennis goldford in iowa. caller: good morning. i would like to speak to mr. sanders' approach to the

divisive message he is sending concerning the wealthy and those considered to be entrenched in poverty. if everyone is so worried about the wealth of the left and 1% of the population, what my question to-- why do they keep going enlist these companies that have all the wealth? out andey keep going buying these expensive iphones, gas guzzling trucks and cars, running to walmart to purchase everything? those of the people who it seems to me like mr. sanders is and approaching the distribution of wealth. host: thank you. professor gold furred? --

professor golford? guest: one is the rising inequality and the question to whether there is a vibrant middle class. everybody talks about the importance of the middle class. in 2012, i walked through a department store and i do analysis for a local station in town and people will know me, and a woman came around the corner from her cash register and counter, and she said, you have to speak for us. i said, excuse me. she said, you have to talk for us. i said, i am an analyst. she says, everybody talks about workingle class, but i class. nobody talks about the working class. what will politicians do for the working class? well,t is a concern as working and middle class, with regard to the sense that

improvement in the country since working our way out of the great recession has not trickled down all the way to average citizens. that is the claim and concerned of sanders. the second kind of claim he an old troperd to that goes back 100 years, the end of the 19th century and 20th century, a concern that they allege about the dominance of corporate power in american democracy, and their argument is we did not have to american democracy in the sense we are supposed to if you have this huge factor operating on the scene with a tremendous amount of wealth and power that corporations can exercise. that is the argument, the two arguments, that sanders makes. this seems to have some resonance, but there is an element on the republican side as well.

donald trump's principal supporters seem to be white working americans, and they are defined in terms of a family $50,000 aless than year and the median is $52,000. people without a college degree, at best high school diploma, and concerned about their slipping position as well. even scott walker made the old clinton argument that if you work hard and play by the rules, you ought to be able to get ahead. there is a general sense that that is not happening now. republicans, rubio focusing on the idea of regaining the american dream and he points to his family as an element, members of both parties are pointing to that issue. they have vastly different solutions. joins us from hackettstown, new jersey, democrat line. thank you. caller: thank you for c-span. i think you do a fair analysis

of what is going on in the world. a quick statement and then a question. it seems that the media has turned all of the campaigning into an electronic entertainment circus and not news coverage. maybe i am wrong on that. my question is -- when i hear statements and candidates like minority,ll or been a that is not nationalism, that is national socialism, and none of the news had mentioned that. 80 years ago, that is what happened in europe. i would like to know why nothing is being said or why there is no comment by the news of statements like that. host: thank you, sir. guest: echoes of the question of how far -- that goes to the question of how far reporters are supposed to go. at the cnbc debate in the paul,

ted cruz effectively attacked the three moderators for the kinds of questions they raised. that is throwing red meat to republican audience who believe mainstream media, as that term is used, are inherently liberal and biased against conservatives and republicans. there is a difficulty when you are in this position. a personal example, i have had the opportunity to moderate some forums and question candidates in iowa, carly fiorina, rick santorum, bernie sanders, some others, we hope. that is one of the advantages of being in iowa or new hampshire. instances, i of have had a question and wanted to drill down into something the candidate has said, but there has been a conflicting sense of hierarchies. on one hand, my job as a cause a media person, is to elicit as

much information from the candidate about their beliefs. on the other hand, in a couple of cases, i did not pursue a question because i kept thinking, i am not here to debate the candidates. it is not my job to debate the candidate and become part of the issue. my job is simply to drill down as far as possible to elicit information. journalists walk a fine line in that regard. there has been a lot of commentary, perhaps not from live, on your broadcast journalist, but there has been a lot of commentary and criticism of the claims the candidates on both sides have made. you just do not find that as much directly on debates, forums and interview programs. host: another robust conversation on twitter. jim following up on the earlier point about senator marco rubio absent from the senate. hasn't made any difference? had they passed anything this

year? another is pointing that barack obama had a poor attendance record when he ran back in 2008. guest: this is something the bush campaign is seizing upon because the bush campaign is trying to stay alive. they do not want marco rubio to emerge as what would be considered to be the acceptably established candidate in opposition to ted cruz. bush, hasek and christie want to emerge is that candidate, the mitt romney or john mccain lane of the nomination process, as carson -- the cruise, ted cruz, carson and bobby jindal and huckabee lanes. we do not know how much residents that has. the commercial of the bush super pac about how he does not show up work and he wants a promotion, that is a clever line.

arco rubio, as i said, is advertising extensively. he seems to be everyone's were once to be everyone's second choice. he is not leading in any of the states. the question is, just as ted cruz in 08 hyundai during the initial -- hung back during the initial, waiting behind the shark and waiting to pick up the leavings, and ted cruz point -- went out of his way not to attack trump and term supporters, in hopes of inheriting them, arco rubio attends -- seems to be hanging back. he seems to be the one summing along and hoping to pick up disaffected supporters of other candidates. host: if you are listening on the potus channel, 124, we are talking politics with dennis goldford. the first of the caucuses set for monday, february 1, and we

will have that live. another tweet saying, i hope friend paul pulls a surprise in iowa or new hampshire to make people realize there are plenty of non-internationalists in the party. let's hear from ralph, a republican from kings mountain, north carolina. i had a question about obama care. how did they expect someone making $15 an hour to pay this fine they have thrown on us? have insurance to pay and you only make $15 an hour parried since i did not do that, they take it out of my taxes. how can we afford this stuff? host: the larger issue about how the affordable care act is playing out in this republican primary. four republicans, the affordable care act is something spawned in the pits of hell.

they think it is outrageous, past and properly through improper procedures and congress. they opposegue that it because they think it might fail. others argue because they are afraid it might succeed. in any case, it has terrible press, there are more people that disapprove been approved. the obama administered -- disapprove of the been approved. the obama administration has not done a good job selling it. it has a lot of problems that need to be worked out if it will continue. republicans have said to repeal and replace, but if you think of computer ponds, or repeal is 100 point font and replace is to point font. in other words, there are a couple of plans out there because republicans do think they cannot go back to ground zero. there are some expects -- some aspects, that the republicans doing their orientation, need to

continue. for example, i believe one of them is that you cannot be penalized for having a pre-existing condition and that kind of concern. a lot of republicans would accept that. plan passed,n the note unified plan again where republicans can rally. regard to the call is concerned, i am not an expert in the details, but my understanding is that given a certain income level, there are subsidies to help people by the health insurance. plays out in individual circumstances, i cannot say. host: our next viewer is simple high on the democrat line. jack, go ahead. caller: thank you. something asssing a small business owner and having a clientele from the lowest income to the highest income -- host: what is your business? say,r: i would rather not

it is in the beauty industry, but what i would like to add and then get the response of the gentleman is, the demographic that everybody, every news source in this country has missed, is that we know that women have the numbers in this country, so the demographic needs to be listed and not commented on, the fact that would normally go toward the conservative party, the 60-year-old and older woman, this is payback time. they have been oppressed for years, ok? the boomers and older women in this country, so with that in time having spent a lot of around florida, conservative families, the women of that age group, they want a woman president. host: thank you.

dennis goldford? well, there is talk all the time about the woman spoke, but that is too broad of a term iswoman's vote, but that too broad of a term. in recent elections, the republican candidates have tended to split the married women's vote with the democratic vote, where democrats have a majority is single women. in particular, single women are one of the three prime constituencies of the democratic party, in addition to young people and minorities. the problem for the democrats is they tend not to turn out to vote in midterms. they do better in a presidential year, but that is the big question. will single women, as well as young people and minorities, turn out to vote for someone who is not barack obama? hillary clinton is appealing directly to women.

i have not been able to find any data recently, but my sense in light is that for women 50 year old and older, married or single, the appeal to elect the first female president has a certain strength to it, but there has been some argument that for women under 50, certainly under 40, hendry -- hillary is a grandmother, an earlier generation. a lot of them tend to think there will be a female president at some point and they have other priorities, but she wants to maximize the vote among women justis sort the caller mention because she sees that as a core constituency and thinks that will be crucial to her chances. host: mary, a quick response to that comment from the viewer, it is about so much more than gender to many of us. show your thoughts, comments and questions that c-span wj.

lisa on the line for republicans joining us from freeport, louisiana. good morning. my dad just passed away four days ago. host: i am so sorry. caller: thank you. i had been taken care of him for seven years. i have no insurance, i have no income. medicaiddal to collate -- took the white medicaid. i go to a charity hospital. i think it is terrible what the republican party is doing. i am a republican but i will be changing to democrat. i think it is terrible that we cannot die with dignity. i think everybody should have insurance. i think that i am scared to death because i have no income. there are no jobs, and i do not know what i am going to do. can you tell me what you would do? question.t is a tough

i remembered that in one of the 2012, and this is not to suggest the current candidates believe this way, nbcn williams, late of news, of course, was asking one of the candidates a question, maybe several of the republican candidates, if someone turns up in an emergency room or hospital with no health insurance, what should be done? rock'sa fairly republican audience, and you could hear over the microphones people in the audience yelling, let them die. that was pretty extreme. the is not to suggest republican party would take the point of view or this year candidates would take the point of view, but this is as i think the issue. the question is the extent to which there should be a social safety net. democrats typically want a wider and thicker social safety net. republicans believe that

discourages people's willingness to go out and work and they tend to want a more narrow and dinner socialsafety -- thinner safety net. i know that governor bobby jindal dropped out and he ran passionately and apocalyptically, talking about the importance of the election. it'snces applauded, but not translate into poll numbers. i recall right before he dropped out, his polling numbers nationwide and in iowa, or in the low single digits, if that high, and even in louisiana, they were not good and among louisiana republicans. the caller reflects a point of view that i think certainly exists in louisiana. the question for republicans is -- will you leave the caller in these circumstances on her own or depending on private charity or is there any role for government, state, or federal to provide assistance?

we will be talking much more about this, but we will be the one network that will actually take you inside the caucuses and let you watch the event unfold. perfect for professors and political science students. the way to explain the caucus process and we will have a republican caucus on c-span, the democratic caucus on c-span2. donald joins us indiana, democrat line. good morning. caller: good morning. look, i am not a donald trump fan or anything, but i have to tell you, he is playing the media perfectly. the media is just letting him get away with it. what i mean by this, all he has is come upsmartly, with something controversial and the media just run with that. i am like, ok? start asking him specific

questions, for example, he is a great builder of all these big buildings in new york and everywhere. ask him, mr. trump, do you use union people on your building sites? the media needs to start doing their job and asking questions, specific questions, on what he says and the things he has said in the past. host: thank you. donald trump is very skilled at using media to advance his message. there is no question about that. i have said recently that trump is catnip, particularly for cable television. it is fun to sit and watch and wonder someone will set themselves on fire, at least rhetorically, and in some ways, it is like a nod to accident that is horrible to look at the

you cannot take your eyes off of it. he is asked meeting to watch. is the lovedynamics anger, outrage. that generates an audience. trump does this. candidates tend to be fairly skilled at saying what they want to say. you will notice in various debate forums and even non-debate forums, if someone has asked a question, the candidate easily shifts to the talking points that he or she wants to make. the questioner may try and try to get that candidate to address the question directly, but it is very hard. i believe for some time, at some point, the questioner might legitimately say, the candidate simply dodged the question.

when trump is been asked questions about particular policy issues, at times, he has reminded me -- the student has not done the reading for class and he will try to bluff his way out of the answer when he has not done the reading -- and that is billy mr. trump sounds at times with regards to details about policy issues. everybody wants to make the country great, but the devil is in the details. trump represents what i like to call, the middle finger segment of the american electorate. he cuts across democratic politicians and policies and republican politicians and policies. trump appeals to people that up with politicians and politics and policies, as usual. people who believe that members of both parties have not been ,istening them for a long time

so they love to mix it up. host: there is a story this morning on the front page of "the new york times," class divisions correct. nt is by jonathan marti talking about the schisms within the gop. the first ad put out from the top campaign this week, focus on immigration. >> i am donald trump and i approve this message. >> politicians can pretend it is something else, but donald trump calls it radical islamic terrorism, he is calling for a temporary shutdown of muslims entering the united states until we can figure out what is going on. he will quickly cut the head off isis, take their oil and stop the illegal immigration by building a wall that mexico will pay for. >> we will make america great again. [applause] host: that ad has been playing extensively in iowa and new hampshire. related to that is this used by

agee in the edition of "the wall street journal," where she says, trump is for real to the republican establishment. guest: one of the main, if not the main concerns of the federal government, of course, is to protect the country, national security. we live in times where people are concerned about national if you look at the cognitive dimension, that is the and trump'sit says, simply repeating what he said before. he will build a wall, defeat isis, take their oil and so forth, so that is not new. but if you look at the tone and ad,visual dimensions of the it is black and white.

in this day and age, it is very foreboding. the tone is foreboding. it is an attempt to play on the fears that people justifiably had, but it is a fear-based ad. in a time where in the view of a lot of potential trump , he is saying, i am the tough guy and i will protect this country from the dangers posed by foreign enemies and even illegal immigrants. us fromarles joins phenix city, alabama, republican line. caller: good morning. it seems to us that the republicans are very careful not to touch on the criminal activities with the clintons and career politicians going back way before he left arkansas and hillary left. trust, number one, we

have career politicians. the difference between them and donald trump, if we look at everybody, even on the republican and democrat ticket, with the exception of donald trump, carly fiorina, and dr. carson, all these people have been living on some form of government jobs, city, state or federal list of their adult back, in it even goes most cases, to the grandfathers. the only things these politicians run their mouths. they have never run a business. donald trump gets things done. the press is so dishonest and they will not admit this to the public. host: thank you. let me get your response to this as well, another viewer saying, iowa caucus voters middle finger voters?

guest: umm, potential trump supporters might well be, but the bulk of iowa caucus voters, remember, they have to be registered members of the political parties. iowa is not an open primary stay, so if you will participate in a republican caucus, you have to be a registered republican. if you open dissipated in the democratic caucus, you have to be a registered democrat. you are allowed to reregister as late as caucus night. you can go in and say you would like to change your party registration to participate in the party caucus. so they are party operations. a lot of them agree registered to dissipate, and the vast majority did so to vote for ron

paul, who there was a republican, but different kind of republican, much more libertarian. his son rand paul has not been able to duplicate that, this far at least, this time around. the caucuses are the process much more inclined to be party members are party supporters. that is why it is interesting to .ee will they track to influence republican caucus. host: as you process the candidates ground game and what you are hearing and seeing from your vantage point at drake university, what are you predicting in terms of turnout on caucus night? what story do you think we will be talking about the day after? tough.that is i always say i am never in the business of predictions. far, anyot seen, so significant change in party

registration, particularly among the republicans. our secretary of state's office, now matter whether it is run by a democrat or republican, has a very good website that anybody can access that will show people photo registration statistics. these are published monthly, the first of every month, and they are not showing any significant increase at all, other than a couple of thousand on the republican side for this time around. av this will change caucus night, -- maybe this will change caucus night. we do not know. or the republicans, record turnouts are 124,000 voters. if you goes to 130,000 voters, it is a record, but is it significant? it would not seem to be. it is a variable we do not know about. on caucus night, the big questions will be on the democratic side, is bernie sanders able to hold hillary clinton down to the low pay 2%

-- low 50 percentile range or even at 50%? the confusion of about how democrats report results. on the republican side, it is clear and simple. it is a preference vote. will donald trump hold his second-place position? will the surgeon to attack would be ted cruz? or will ted cruz hold on and maintain his number one position? and will it be the beginning of the end for the other candidates thus far? ,ost: professor dennis goldford a professor at drake and adversity and a fellow at the new harkin institute. thank you for being with us. guest: it has been a pleasure. host: we will continue with more from iowa. j. ann selzer will join us, and give us a sense of what she has seen on the ground for the first of the nation caucuses scheduled from three weeks from tomorrow.

♪ as president obama prepares for his state of the union address on tuesday, he released this video on twitter -- working on my state of the union address, my last one. i keep thinking about the road we have traveled together these last seven years. that is what makes america great , our capacity to change for the better, to come together as one american family and pull ourselves closer to the america we believe in. it is hard to see sometimes in the day-to-day noise of washington, but it is who we are, and it is what i want to focus on in this state of the union address. >> c-span's coverage starts at 8:00 p.m. eastern. they look back at the history and tradition of the president's

annual message to what to expect in this year's address. at 9:00, our live coverage of the president's speech, hollowed by the republican response by south governor -- south carolina governor nikki haley. on c-span, c-span radio, and www.c-span.org. we will repair our state of the union coverage and the republican response starting at 11:00 p.m. eastern, and it :00 p.m. -- and 8:00 p.m. pacific. we will hear their reaction to the president's address. >> "washington journal" continues. host: we continue to focus on iowa. the first of the nation caucus schedule from three weeks from tomorrow. after a dramatic say, can ben carson hang on to his 9% in iowa?

one of the questions we would like to ask j. ann selzer, joining us from des moines. good morning. guest: good morning. host: three weeks to go before the caucuses, and the polls show a tight race in the republican side between donald trump and ted cruz. i think there are a couple of polls out today showing exactly that. we do not have a recent poll out, so i cannot really speak to any of my own data, but with these polls are saying, at that race, it looks pretty tight. our last poll had a 10 point raise with ted cruz at 31. he did not care for that poll. host: according to this headline -- guest: he meaning donald trump. this yes, according to headline with ben carson, is evading based on what you are hearing and seeing? guest: ben carson is a former

front runner, so he is not in the top two which means he has faded. the question is, will the people who really have sort of catapulted up, will they hold on to him to keep him in the top three? we do not know. host: let me have you respond to a donald trump said yesterday in iowa, one of two stops as he campaigned across your stay, and he talked about the polls. >> i love iowa. we had to really well. the polls have just said we are even. i amre the only one where even. we're winning every single national and state poll. we are even here, that will not happen, right? even is no good. i have a feeling we will surprise a lot of people on february 1. a lot of people will be surprised. [applause] host: donald trump in iowa yesterday. do you want to elaborate on what he was saying?

guest: donald trump, as i understand, begins every speech he gives by reciting where he stands in the polls and commenting on them, the first half of his stump speech, so it is not surprising to hear them talk about it. in december when we showed him down, one of the few polls showing him not leading, and he said that the pollsters in iowa do not like him. i wrote a little op-ed for the des moines register, which i made very clear that my feelings for donald trump had not changed since august when he led in our polls, so i think he is very particular about where he wants to stand in the polls and to the extent that that influences the people in his audiences to be more receptive to taking part in announcing their loyalty to him. maybe that is a good strategy for him? host: in "the wall street

journal," the landscape of the gop contest and it does break down iowa, new hampshire and south carolina. thanpoints out that more half, 50 7%, other republicans identify themselves as evangelical and born again christians. not, they describe themselves as very conservative, only 17% described themselves as moderate to liberal. what does that tell you about the makeup of the republican caucus goers on february 1? guest: i think you are citing the 2012 entrance polls. host: right. guest: we know that the evangelical conservative community is a better than average job at turning out their supporters, so when we do the polling, their numbers are not quite that high. we see that they come in higher in terms of who actually shows up on caucus night, so that is an organizational element.

on the moderate side, it is a matter of that feeling of do i want to go and spend a couple of hours in a room where i am going to be -- my views are not going to be reflected in what the republican platform is going to be about? what has, a lot of the time, taken a caucus night doing. say, there are plenty of votes in be had, the most votes any republican candidate ever got was mike huckabee, about 41,000 votes, doesn't seem that high, there are 41,000 moderates in the state and plenty more, couldn't they be organized and his answer was, the reason we are moderates is we don't want to show up. gettinglittle bit about candidates. you can see the challenge, getting candidate score on the more moderate side. how do they organize a group that is reluctant to be organized? formeret's talk about

president bill clinton campaigning last thursday in iowa and hillary clinton was there earlier in the week. this new spot now on the air in your state. >> i am donald trump and i approve this message. >> the politicians can pretend it is something else, but donald trump cosan radical islamic terrorism. that is why he is calling for a temporary shutdown of muslims entered the united states until he can figure out what is going on. he will cut the head up isis, stop the oil, and stop illegal immigration by building a wall on the southern border that mexico will pay for. >> we will make america great again. host: i apologize for that, that is the donald trump had. in the moment, we will show you the hillary clinton ad. let's go to gary from indiana. caller: good morning. and is gary from indiana, want to extend our condolences

and the lady from freeport, louisiana, got less you -- god bless you. bernie sanders is no doubt the most suitable candidate for this position. i have done the homework, and this man understands the middle class and the poor, he respects humanity unlike the ones who own nothing but money. money -- i want you to hear me out there -- i am rooting for you. he is the best man for the job and you are going to win. man -- [singing] -- you are the man. i will see you. host: gary excited in indiana. guest: what you hear there is a fervency that i think is reflected when you watch any of

the bernie sanders' events. initially, when he first started campaigning, there was pent-up demand. have peopleic party who wanted to feel good about being democrats. they have bad eight years of the democrats even beat up on and feeling as though they did not have a strong voice of their. here comes bernie sanders, unapologetic democratic socialist, he says, and it just sort of made all of those inclinations inside a lot of democrats, including an iowa, just kind of surge with, yes, this is the party i wish to have for a long time. he has been able to sustain that level of fervency. perhaps is even growing on it. our last poll in iowa had hillary clinton up by nine points. waswould take that if she

the anticipated nominee, she could command a bigger lead than that, so he is holding his own, i would say, in terms of how he is performing in iowa, and i think it is because of that fervency. host: go ahead. guest: i was just going to add one more thing. we did a poll a few months ago where we wondered to know if the support for bernie sanders was a stop hillary vote. there was some question of, do they really support this person or is this an anti-hillary vote? over 90% of the people who said that bernie sanders was their first choice said, this is for bernie sanders and not against hillary clinton, so there is something he is tapping into and it is pulling at the right strings are him. host: here is that hillary clinton ad. >> if there is one thing i have , as the rising fall,

there are people there for you. [indiscernible] i believe that she will win. i believe that she will win. >> people ask me, where should they go and where should they not go. we need you. ♪ [chanting] >> i believe that she will win. >> the proof is in the voting. we have got to be out there every single day. we need you. host: bill clinton in that spot for the hillary clinton campaign. how important of the circuit is

c4 hillary clinton -- of a surrogate is he for hillary clinton? guest: he is very popular in iowa, even at the depth of his impeachment proceedings when he was president. his approval rating as president was always quite high, 60's to 70%, and he never fell below 50% in his approval rating by president. he has been able to withstand negative problems and keep that turned around. his popularity has never really faded all that much. people are always interested in hearing what bill clinton has the say, seeing what bill clinton has the say. the most important part of that message was a plea for people to show up. my sense is that there is a little bit in the hillary clinton vote that is more resigned than enthusiastic.

you do not have the fervency on the hillary clinton side. if you do not have fervency, you will glory about whether those people will show up. this was a plea to make it, take the steps that we needed to take in order to support hillary clinton. host: hillary clinton will be in new hampshire related to it, receiving the endorsement of planned parenthood and we will have live coverage of that at about 4:00 p.m. eastern time in new hampshire. charlie from tennessee, democrat line with j. ann selzer. caller: i would like to ask j. ann selzer, the republican caucuses have turned up for people like mike huckabee, rick santorum a couple times, and michele bachmann, none of whom lynch went on -- none of who went on to win elections. why does she think that has happened? guest: let me clarify that

michele bachmann won the straw poll, a event that used to happen, she came in fifth, i think, in the last caucus. we will take her off the table. the thing for people to understand is that no state looks at more candidates than iowa does. at one point, there were 17 candidates, and the job that iowans are handed in this assignment is to sort of figure out, well, what is the upper to year, what is the bottom tier? the people who end up on the bottom tier end up leaving the race before the caucuses or shortly after, like mike huckabee has already said, if he does not come in in the upper tier, he will leave the race at that time. that is a job islands have to do. in terms of whether the exact won by and rick santorum a handful of votes, mitt romney

was the one who ended up coming in second, and he went on to get the nomination and run a good campaign for president. george w. bush was the winner for the iowa caucuses. is it a perfect record? givennow that it could be how large the field of candidates are. by the time we get to other states it is down to a couple of candidates. field this biggest year, it will be more a matter of who exceeds expectations other than anything else. donald trump and ted cruz are close, if one of them is 10 points ahead, that will be meaningful. if there is a definite third-place candidate who came out of the pack, who are not been performing well, that will .e meaningful

it is that momentum at the end for the catapult will be in the end. on serious xm on channel 124, and also extremely on the web, we are talking iowa politics with holster j. ann lsterr -- with holster pol j. ann selzer. host: next caller. caller: i have a simple question. iowa, if you are a republican, you have a republican candidate. if you look at a democrat ballot, you have democrat, independent, farm labor party, green party, democratic

socialist, so on and so forth. white? is that -- why is that? i never understood. can you answer that? guest: if you are talking about the general election ballot in november where the entire country is coding, all of the candidates who are listed on that ballot are the candidates eligible in iowa to be listed on that ballot. while you may think of some of those as more left-leaning, if you think about the green party that candidate have to qualify to get on the ballot. there could be other parties that would organize to also get on the ballot, but the fact that there are multiple parties represented means there were not organizations, petitions signed, the paperwork done for this candidate to get on the ballot. was a huge there number of people who filed with the fec to be considered candidates for president.

i think it is over 1000. not many of them are going to end up doing the work to actually get on state ballots. i hope that corrects the misperception. host: bob from germantown, maryland, independent line. caller: i would like to point out that the democrats seem to always like to divide america. my question is, if a person, it would be, if a person, what of hows it is a yours much money a person makes if you are happy? guest: i would say in our polling question, we ask about how much people care or how they sort of rate the importance of the issue of income inequality. i think that is what you are speaking to. partye tapping into the divide on that. for democrats, the tendency is

to say that is a very important issue for candidates to address in this debate, and republicans bring that much lower. it may be just a matter of the ideology that says this is an issue to be solved, the climbing middle-class whereas on the look, put side, yourself out by the bootstraps. it is more ideology than anything else. pollsteras legendary explains what makes it the best in the business. what is your secret? , and: there might be sauce i don't mind the saucy part of that, but it is not really a secret. we publish our methodology. what we try to do is inject as much science as we possibly can into how we draw our samples, how we decide who we are going to count as a likely caucus-goers and it is all there in the tiny little type every

time we publish a pull, which is required. it is really no secret. it is a tough job because it is a little incident event. not that many people show up on caucus night, so you are calling and thinking up on a lot of people who say, maybe i will go, but that does not qualify them for us. it is a hard job, and expensive job, and we try to do it in a way that gives us our best shot at getting the opinions of what looks like across section of people who will show up on caucus night. host: with a growing majority having cell phones and no land lines, kind to connect with those potential caucus-goers and voters? guest: we are able to call cell phones and there is some figure more outback was along with that, but in the older days when people were charged called by call by call on their cell phones, those days are pretty

much over. the problem with cell phones is that when you call someone on a cell phone, where are they? are they in a situation where they could answer a pull? when you call someone on their landline, where are they? they are at home. the chances that they have a moment at that time and in that place to answer the phone call are much higher. the issue about being able to connect with cell phones has pretty much been resolved. host: let's go to arnold from north carolina, democrat line. caller: good morning. nice necktie, as usual. [laughter] i am alling because democrat and my biggest issue right now -- when the primary comes here to north carolina, i don't know if it will be expectant or anything,

i tell these young people that i will vote for bernie sanders because he sticks with what i want. i tell them, but when the general election gets around here, i am going to vote for whoever the democrats nominate. they tell me, why? i said because you watch trump ism on tv, trump rallies and it mirrors 1930 germany. it is scary, very scary. i am so afraid now. i have been -- i would have watched this show a long time -- i watched this show a long time and we say every election, this is the most important election. this is an extremely important election. they suppress the black vote, people's vote, and they have doubled our work down to, but i will get through and work through this.

there will be no deep couch sitting going on as long as i am reading there. -- breathing air. host: thank you. a poll showing that bernie sanders essentially dead even with hillary clinton, a three-point advantage over bernie sanders. with these numbers and the caller's sentiment, j. ann selzer, your response. guest: i think there is a pretty good alignment between bernie sanders and hillary clinton supporters. we ask first and second choice, so it somebody drops out of the race, we know where that might go. on the democratic side, as dennis goldford might have make clear, if your candidate does not have 15% of the people in the room, they will have to move around a bit. and hisnders supporters second choice is usually hillary clinton. we are talking about caucuses,

that at least anecdotally, there are people who are bernie sanders supporters today who feel an affinity for donald trump. i think it has to do with changing or the wish to change government and the way it functions. they feel like that is what the last several elections have been about but nothing has changed as much as they wish. i sort of feel that what he is talking to with the younger people is that if it is not bernie sanders, they feel like they will be free agents to go and vote as they like, and he is trying to corral them into the democratic lane. it might be a harder job to do that this year. host: you can get more information on this new polak nbc news.com. this is the headline -- "that get back in iowa and new hampshire for the democratic side of the aisle." ted cruz with a slight lead.

sonja is joining us from miami beach, independent. caller: i am very concerned because usually, i want to make sure this time that donald trump wins because he is the only one who will be strong enough and fight strong enough for this country. obama's communist agenda of seven years, we need somebody who was ready to fight. and the strength to repair all the damage obama did. host: thank you. a strong donald trump supporter. think that is one of the ways in which donald trump, for toric we, has commended the place in the contest he has, which is that his brand's strength. all of the other candidates are measured against the trump yardstick in terms of how strong do they come across and how strong to they appear.

to me, my background academically is in communication theory and understanding how audiences reacted rings and understanding how public order doors try to make her imprint -- public orators try to make their imprint on the audience. he has been able to command a position of strength, whatever the topic might be, and there is country,in this especially in this republican contest to feel as though the nation is strong, which says that they have a feeling that it has not been strong. if you think about his tagline -- make america stronger again -- it presents the problem. the problem is that we are not strong and the solution is he will make the nation strong again. it is speaking to people and they are very full hearted about their support for that. host: when it comes time to

caucus night, you expect the turn out to be what? guest: [laughter] so far, we are seeing in our numbers a slight increase in the number of people who said they are first-time caucus-goers over what we would have seen before. that is a little hit of an indicator around 25% of people on each side who say this will be their first caucus. that is where we were in 2007, so about a month out, it was not until our final poll on the democratic side that we saw 60% say that this would be their first caucus. that was the alarm, the turnout was going to be exceptionally bigger than it had been any other time. we worried about that number and whether that was correct and the entrance poll that night said 57%. polls are not very useful in looking at turnout expectations. maybe and so we get to the final polling that we are not there yet. host: j. ann selzer earned her

doctorate from the university of iowa, she is a longtime pollster in that state, thank you. we will check in with you within the next couple of weeks. guest: my pleasure. host: tomorrow, seed of union and politics. a busy week ahead as the president delivers his final state of the union address on tuesday at 8:00 p.m. eastern time. we will focus on mental health issues. theill be joined by paul, ceo of mental health america. later, we will talk to doug brinkley about the president final year in office and what to expect during his state of the union address. all your money segment, ryan bender, defense senator for "political" to talk about the millions spent on unused military equipment. we hope you tune in at 7:00 a.m. eastern time and 4:00 on the western coast. enjoy the rest of your weekend. ahead.great week

"newsmakers" is next. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] c-span this morning, "newsmakers" is next with republican congressman mac thornberry of texas. then, president obama unveiled his plan to reduce gun violence in the u.s. through executive action. later, republicans in congress hold a signing ceremony for legislation that repeals parts of the 2010 health care law. ms. swain: the chairman of the services committee, mac thornberry of texas, returns to "newsmakers" this week. president will be making his final state of the union address, and also the house plans to address the situation in north korea and