caucus night, you expect the turn out to be what? guest: [laughter] so far, we are seeing in our numbers a slight increase in the number of people who said they are first-time caucus-goers over what we would have seen before. that is a little hit of an indicator around 25% of people on each side who say this will be their first caucus. that is where we were in 2007, so about a month out, it was not until our final poll on the democratic side that we saw 60% say that this would be their first caucus. that was the alarm, the turnout was going to be exceptionally bigger than it had been any other time. we worried about that number and whether that was correct and the entrance poll that night said 57%. polls are not very useful in looking at turnout expectations. maybe and so we get to the final

polling that we are not there yet. host: j. ann selzer earned her doctor >> on the next washington talk on president obama's executive action on gun. ad douglas brinkley offers view on the final year of presidents and what we can look for in president obama's finally year. aboutryan bender talks the logistics agency that makes purchases for the defense department. as always, you cannot call in or make comments via facebook and twitter. washington journal is live monday at 7:00 a.m. on c-span.

monday on the communicators, a discussion on how u.s. media organizations are operating in today's it media environment and how it these agencies should retool to avoid propaganda by russia and others. started 70ity is, we years ago as a radio enterprise. we still do some radio. ability to shift radio and mobile and put energy behind it is still there. than any different other company that has had to do the same things and has done a fantastic job. mission, to shift resources, energy, focus, strategy to be more in the care-to-." were and set of the one-to-many. so we can shift from the stodgy old media to new media.

the mediatorsch on c-span two. announcer: as president obama prepares for his state of the union address on tuesday, he released this video. i am working on my state of the union address. i keep thinking of how we traveled these last seven years. that is what made america great. our ability to come together as one american family and pull ourselves closer to the america we believe in. it is tough to see sometimes in the day-to-day noise of everyday washington. to focus on innt this state of the union address. announcer: c-span's coverage 8:00 p.m.tuesday at looking back at the history and tradition of the message and what to expect this year.

then at 9:00, live coverage of the presidential speech plus your reaction by phone, facebook, tweets, indy e-mail as well as those by congress on c-span, c-span radio, and c-span.org. presidentialr the 11:00 and reaction at p.m.. later, we will hear from members of congress in statuary hall with their comments about the state of the union address. next, the latest developments in the 2016 campaign in new hampshire. after that, the house hearing on producing documents for inquiries. baron on "q&a."

the presidential campaign. from washington journal, this is about 40 minutes. host: joining us from new hampshire, the chief political correspondent, formerly longtime reporter and columnist. good sunday morning. thank you for being with us. guest: thanks for having me. host: let me share with you one of the headlines, which gets to one slice of the new hampshire electorate. it points out that senator rubio is trying to broaden his appeal in new hampshire but aces skepticism. explain what's going on up there for senator rubio and within the republican party. guest: sure.

with regard to senator rubio he made an interesting statement where he essentially said you have to be in touch with the voters' mood. that's what is different about this election and this primary up here. it's really not about the issues. it's really not about the resume. it's not even about the personality of donald trump. it's about voter mood. voters are angry and frustrated. and rubeyow said if you're tuned in to that. there's no way they're going to vote for you for president. so that's his challenge to try to tap into that anger and let voters know that he feels it, too, but to try and produce a constructive agenda of moving forward. in the io is involved next month leading up to this primary in what's going to be a food fight between who is going

to be the alternative. and that has already begun on the air waves with negative ads with campaign events, and the fight is going to be between john casic, chris christie, marco rubio, and jeb bush. only one is going to emerge as the alternative to donlt trump. obviously ted cruz has his showing in iowa going for him. if he is able to actually win iowa he can come here as wem and be a real player so that's rubio's dilemma right now. host: do you have any sense that any of those so-called establishment candidates would withdraw before the new hampshire primary? guest: i don't think so. at one point months ago i felt that was the case. i really felt like a number of candidates would have dropped out. more candidates would have dropped out by now. as you know we still have 12

candidates for this race. it's a dizzying pace for my counterpart to follow and myself with 76 events last week. i think these candidates, the establishment candidates have too much money, too much support, too much at stake to drop out before there's an actual vote. so i think many of them will drop out perhaps after new hampshire if the result is a particularly negative one for them. host: let's take a look at the demographics of the new hampshire electorate where there are about 874,000 registered voters. and we talk about this every four years but it's interesting to point out that undecided is of argest category of 44% the electorate followed by republican at 30%, dramatic at 26%, and reminder back in 2012 the last contested republican

primary mitt romney winning followed by then congressman ron paul, governor hutsman, senator san tax reform and house speaker newt gingrich. as you look at those numbers what does that tell you about 1e6? >> what it really tells us about 2016 is where is that big block going to go? meaning the undeclared, unenrolled independent voters. as you know, up here in new hampshire we have a couple of things going for independents. first off we have election day registration. you can actually register to vote on primary day and cast a ballot. second, for independents they can go into the polling place, they can grab whichever primary ballot they want either democratic or republican, and then when they leave the polls they can change back to independent. it's a very friendly, user frndly environment. that's why so many indnlts take

part. why is that important? well, right now polls are showing that indbts are 20 mrts more likely to vote in the republican primary than in the democratic primary. that's bad news for bernie sanders if that holds up. his hope of a clossle upset of hillary clinton really rests on an enormous voter turnout. but if all those vote republican he has lost those folks. it's the same thing, frankly, that happened to bill bradley against al gore in 2000. all those independents went in and voted for john mccain who beat george w. bush in that republican primary. great news for john mccain. bad news for bill bradley. bernie sand sers hoping history doesn't repeat itself. host: talking about the divisions in the g.o.p. oin eggy noonan's head

points out the following. guest: i think again the republican party is struggling with the old paradigm no longer works. which is the republican party was the trusted party in which it's so and so's turn. with every primary with the modern primary in 1925 with the republicans it's always been someone's turn. it was bob dole's turn. it was john mccain's turn. it was george w. bush's turn, it was mitt romney's turn. in this primary it's really nobody's turn and donald trump has turned the race on its head and is campaigning in a way

that establishment candidates almost never campaign. i mean, think about this. what other -- have you ever seen an establishment republican can't date turn and boo the press which is what donald trump does in almost every really he is? have you ever seen a republican presidential candidate make the gaffs and issteps or have their popularity increase not decrease? that's what usually happens. so that's what the establishment is going through right now. what do we do with this guy trump, and even ted cruz is a threat to the establishment as you know on capitol hill. and those are the two people with the big mow right now. host: this is a photograph of time magazine in massachusetts at the paul tsongas arena.

he ran for president in 1992. a huge crowd. as the "washington post" pointed out the campaign manager is from lowell. d they have been able to tap into many communities often overlooked by pridential candidates. guest: and we've seen this even nationally. he's gone to biloxi, mississippi. he's gone to a number of places all over the country that are either underserved or felt left out where unemployment is higher and he's tapped into that amminger and frustration and getting these enormous crowds. more than 3,000 in burlington, vermont, the home of the place that elected the socialist mayor bernie sanders decades ago. but he keeps turning out these crowds.

and the events have a different plaver than is typical. he put out a statement at the burlington event in which he said i'm taking care of my people. i'm not interested in the people who are undecided or who won't vote for me. i'm loyal to my people because they're loyal to me. as you know, in new hampshire presidential primary talk that's political hersy. mean, candidates, the playbook for candidates to campaign in new hampshire is to have undecided voters come to their events and to win them over. but literally, every dommed trump event and rally is like a cult following. i got some polling from a democratic source earlier this week that showed in new hampshire donald trump's unfavorable rating is as high as 65%.

now, that's scary to every republican opponent. why? it says that virtually everyone who has a favorable viewpoint of donald trump is voting for him here. they've already decided they're with him here. as i pointed out earlier, with all the either missteps or controversies, many of those folers have remained loyal to him. it's a very solid following. as i say, for all the other establishment candidates it's frightening. host: our guest is the chief political correspondent. his work is available on line at nh 1.com. he began his career in massachusetts with the lowell son. a great friend of the c-span networks. we always appreciate having him on. he is joining us from

manchester, new hampshire. we have a line set aside for those who live in the granite state. we begin with senator marco rubio one of a number of candidates in south carolina yesterday for the forum. you can check it out on our website. he came out with a new ad taking aim at one of his chief rivals. >> host: that ad which focuses on chris christie and that paragraph right before the 2012 election as hurricane sandy hit

the new jersey coast. i remember back in 2012 that a lot of republicans taking aim at governor huntsman who served as the u.s. ambassador to china. is this resonating any differently in 2016? guest: it's certainly not helpful to him. but it's not getting the kind of traction against chris christie i think it would if he hadn't been spending a lot of time campaigning here. he's been here more than 65 days campaigning in new hampshire almost as much as any other candidate in the race. he has held a number of town halls. he built up a reservoir of support here. he has a prominent group of endorsements on his team. a number of legislative leaders, former speakers of the house. so that's helpful to him. re, you was saying befo

never want to be with a month left the subject of an attack ad from one of your opponents. and as you know it's not the only one up there. jeb bush's own super pac has an ad up talking about the other governors in this race, chris christie and john casic and why jeb bush is preferable to them. and raising some of these same issues. taxes with christie, casic supporting medicaid expansion. so that's certainly what rubio is trying to tap into and it can be a problem. and ink as i said earlier i think it's going to get more negative not less. host: saying that senator rubio has been spoon fed in every election and would not be a vibling nominee against hillary clinton. guest: and has also raised

governor christie as has others, have raised senator rubio's less than stellar attendance record in the u.s. senate. ost: we have this tweet. guest: certainly new hampshire is economically very solid. it's one of the more wealthiest states in the country, one of the top ten states of per capita income. but there's -- it's a very small state. it's largely a rural state. it has a couple of population centers but it's largetly a rural state. it's also a very white state. it's one of the whitest states in the country where having growing minority populations but they're still relatively small.

f course, is highly educated population. highly tuned in to high technology. employees in much larger numbers and percentage have high tech skills and computer skills than do the populations of most states in the country. ost: let's hear from matt 6789 caller: good morning. and thank you for c-span. i really enjoy the ability to speak. when they came on line i was really hopeful that we would have a news program that would just be a little more open with people. i have not yet seen your news channel cover the poisoning of thousands of people in flint, michigan. i haven't seen you do much

coverage on the terrorist standout in oregon on the national wild life refuge. and i've been getting bombarded with political ads for four months. pay to watch my hockey games not to get political ads on my hockey games. he's very true in how he described new hampshire and it's very correct. very intelligent people and high tech. we are a rural state, small state but very independent. i'm registered as an independent. host: are you go to vote? caller: without a doubt. i've never missed an election in my life and i'm 57 years old. host: who is your candidate? caller: at this point, bernie sanders. but i may vote in the republican primary. i'm not sure yet. host: if you vote in the republican primary who would

you vote for? guest: i would probably vote for casic. host: because? guest: because he's a moderate. he's willing to work. he's proven he can work across the aisle. my big problem with politics now is we are just too politically divided. host: thanks for the call. guest: certainly with regard to the unrest in oregon we have reported that story. the family from rochester is politically active in circles. susan, state representative, they've been very active. her husband has gone out there to support folks who are protesting the bureau and we've interviewed him. but pleeskeep turning in and we appreciate all the input you provide to us. but i think matt does represent a lot of voters in new

hampshire. p independents who are, as we were talking about earlier, trying to decide do i want to try to voke republican? where do i want to send my snadge? independent voters are notoriously strategic. they often want to take part in the primary where they think they will have the greatest impact. host: alicia joining us from buffalo, new york. good morning. caller: i was calling because i wanted to vote for somebody that's going to do right by our ountry and not going to be going against our president. because they've been doing that lately. host: so who is your candidate? caller: i want somebody whose going to do right by us.

host: thank you. any response? guest: yes. a very good point. barack obama only the second win at since f.d.r. to the new hampshire four elect tral votes twice. very popular in this state here. there isn't any question about it. but absolutely right, all republicans have nothing good to say about barack obama and bernie sanders, you've heard the adds, talked about we live in a rillingd economies where billionaires play the tune and the rest have to follow the music. i think hillary clinton is the only one who spends a lot of time talking about trying to complete the barack obama agenda and also extended and

put her own stamp on it. host: if you look back since 1988, that was the last time in a competitive primary new hampshire veeters voted for the candidate who went on to be president. that was bush. since then, bill clinton lost new hampshire, won new hampshire to barack obama by a narrow percentage voint. mccain winning. i mention that because there's a headline this morning on the relevance and importance of the new hampshire primary. the question is to whether or not new hampshire will be first in 2020. guest: he's absolutely correct.

texas republican champ had wanted to bring to this week's republican national committee meeting in south carolina a rule change to take away new hampshire's primary. ted cruz the texas senator who is a good friend of the republican chairman talked him into withdrawing that proposal at this time. and has said it's preposterous to talk about changing new hampshire's primary status. as bill, the longtime secretary of state, the longest serving state election official in the country, has said this is the first time he set the primary date in february 9th, of course this is the first time he hasn't had to break either democratic or republican primary rules in setting the date.

despite a lot of the unrest we've heard from harry reid, republican s, the national chairman about sake red cows and getting rid of the new hampshires. there's been no threat to the first primary from another state in this cycle. that is unique but there isn't any question that after this e lecks they will be moved in both political parties to try and dilute new hampshire's influence. as we're seen time and time again. our greatest weapon is our voters. how involved they are, how big the turnouts always are. and our second greatest weapon are our candidates and the president's who get elected who say don't do anything to change new hampshire. new hampshire is unique in that we have to meet real voters, we have to actually convince them to support us. it's not airport tarmac press

conferences and slick dam pain ads that make up the entirement of the campaign in most states across america. so slongs we have candidates and the national media singing the praces of new hampshire there are going to be challenges but i think we will survive them. host: a tweet. caller: good morning. i just wanted to make a comment cammed candidate who these rallies and the protesters are using the wrong platform. if these protesters -- it doesn't matter who they are, republicans or democrats, at an opposite rally are using the long platform for their

protests. so any candidate, republicans, democratic, oregon dependent that wants to have a protest ushered out should do so. because they're not in the right place. host: thank you for the call. guest: thank you for the call and the comments. what's interesting about this cycle is that -- and it goes back to what i was talking about earlier about the high unfavorable rating in general for donald trump. he's the only one who is getting a lot of proteggers at his events. there aren't a lot of them at chris christie's or hick's events. certainly -- hillary clinton's events. we'll give you all kinds of research and talking points about the candidate who will be speaking inside. but donald trump has protestors

at almost all of his rallies and has been very surgical of ushering out people mo raise protests because in his mind they're invading not the privacy of the event but the sanctity of the event that's taking place there. and whenever these folks are ushered out it's met with huge loud applause from all of trump's u.s.ers. crowd one of the most pleasing parts of every rally. host: another viewer said i would like to see a national primary day. one for republicans and one for democrats. is that practical? guest: boy, i don't know. i certainly -- you're hearing that more and more that there is. and particularly with technology the way it is today we could always vote -- we wouldn't have to go to the

polling place we could vote with our smart phones. ut i'm not sure that's the way we want democracy to work. i think americans intensely like the give and take that occurs in presidential primaries and caucuses like yamplee and new hampshire. i wanted to also address your earlier question about new hampshire not always picking the winner and iowa. former governor and white house chief of staff john sewn uneu said iowa picks corn. that's not entirely correct. it is true that of the last 1 people who have been elected new ent, they've all won hampshire. meaning 13 of them won new

hampshire. but back to the point. most voters here in new hampshire don't believe it's their job to pick the president. most voters think it's their job to make the choice manageable for the rest of the country. that's precisely why often people who don't get elected presidential. that's precisely why john mccain won in new hampshire. enough republicans said another bush? we're not sure. let's promote this guy mccain. that's why pat buchanan won in new hampshire. a lot of republicans say bob dole president? we're not sure. let's make sure there's a contest, and they promoted pat buchanan. bob dole a lovely man but many happened be to be right. in 2008 a lot of democrats said

barack obama one-term senator. not a lot of accomplishment. gives a great speech. we're not so sure. so we voted for hillary clinton and created this knockdown, dragout fight to the nomination that everyone argues made barack obama a better candidate and helped elect him president. >> we spent six days in new hampshire covering town hall john casic ncluding and bush. they've been posted. we're live today with hillary linton in new hampshire this jan. follow our coverage. our guest is kevin land again the chief correspondent. the first of the nation primary, new hampshire.

donald joining us from port arthur, texas. good morning. caller: hello. i sure enjoy c-span and it gives you a chance to see that the people out there are just not informed of what's going on. they just don't get it. i'm a democrat but i didn't vote for barack obama. barack obama was like you said a one-time senator. he didn't have the experience, he didn't have the know how. look where we are now. trillions in debt when we took office, we are over 19 in isis is getting to us. we had shb in here in houston arrested not that long weigh. and nobody seems to understand that we've got to put them down and get rid of them or else they're going to take over this country. host: thank you for the call.

caller: thanks a lot for the call. he -- guest: he's right about one thing is about national security and the threat isis poses has become a much bigger issue than nine months ago wefment the attacks in paris, a number of advancements that middle east has become a very issue. and to the detriment of some candidates. dr. ben carson has been motorly wounded by the fact that he doesn't have the mastry on foreign policy than he has ol on some of the domestic issues. that's certainly hurt him here in new hampshire and to some extent it's hurt him in iowa as well. i go to town halls and particularly at republican events, there's always an isis question.

there's always a national security question. and it's often the first question that's asked. host: from the opinion pages of he "new york times." let's go to joseph in kentucky. republican line. good morning. caller: good morning. thanks for tarking my call. i forget who said it but it would be easily googled. but someone said that elections are far too important ton left in the voters' hands. that's pretty funny. but i'm kind of disappointed as on certain ting candidates by the press. it's a tell tail sign when all

the press reports on someone like donald audience. but equally tell tail sign is people that you don't cover and you don't hear anything about that have such grassroots followingings such as rand paul and he has so many people sending him money and such a following that no other candidates can even touch him. i wonder why the press don't mention his name. it's like they've been ordered to not say anything about him. don't mention how he has done. i think the polls are really askewed. guest: thank you for the call. you're absolutely right that donald trump has been getting a lot of news coverage. there isn't any question about it. but we take our responsibility in new hampshire very seriously to cover all the capped dates

and give them all time. just this past friday, we had paul our network for half an hour. of special programming. we call it fiscal fridays in which we ask the candidates the come in and hit down with our political director and talk specifically about the national debt. the concord coalition is the cosponsor of this program. it's been very successful and it gives us an opportunity to give all of the candidates their equal time. and we've tried to do that. i think wmurtv has done that as well. they have conversations with the candidates and have given them time as paul, often likes to do four hours with four candidates he actually goes on

the campaign trail and covering them equal gives time. rand paul is not showing up in the polls but there is no doubt he's got a strong grassroots organization in new hampshire. he announced his a 500 ds supporter to that organization earlier this week. he has a gentleman named mike who is an expert republican campaign organizer running his campaign with experience and they've put together a very impressive network of people. so if the ground game counts for anything -- and i believe it does -- rand paul will outperform his poll numbers on february 9. host: you talk about the demographics of the voters and independents. we heard an ad from marco rubio

but also this from bernie sanders who is vying against hillary clinton and governor mallie for a win in new hampshire. he appears on meet the press let's listen to what he has to say. >> you and donald trump are the big surprise political stories. you've suggested that yur message about the economic inequality can appeal to the trump voters. plain how that happens. guest: well, many are working class people. and they are angry. and they are angry because they're working longer hours for lower wages. they're angry because their jobs have left the country. they're angry because they can't afford to send the kids to college. i think what trump has done successfully and take that anger and anti-anxiety and say to a lot of people, the reason

for our problems is because of mexicans and he says they're all criminals and rapists. we've got to hate mexicans. what he says about isis, she's a terrorist and has to go up the spelling. this is a guy who has not want to raise the minimum wage. he has said wages are too high. but he does want to give hundreds of billions of tax breaks to the top 1 to 4%. so i think we can make the case we can make the issue the raise turned. why the middle class is disappearing. that we need policies that bring us together. that take on the greed of wall street, the greed of corporate erica and create a mick that workses for all of us rather

than just a the few. host: what you hear he is saying is it's a tale of two polls. showing the race competitive. naturally hillary clinton remains ahead significantly but a lot can happen between early february. guest: yeah. and they can influence the race. we don't always follow what iowa does. but certainly if secretary clinton were to defeat bernie sanders in iowa and perhaps do it decisively, it would certainly hurt his mome mum here. you can hear the anger in bernie voice. and who can blame him. after all these low wage workers, to bernie sappeders they're my voters and they're going to donald trump. going back to what we are

talking about earlier. unenrolled angry voters to vote in my primary secretary clinton is going to beat me in new hampshire despite the polls that show me ahead. host: fred from conquer, new hampshire. caller: my question is does rubio have the wisdom to be the president of the united states? this guy's i look at him like a to, four year congressman who thinks he is qualified to be ppt to the united states. and then my other question is is as new hampshire goes so goes the nation. is that going to happen? host: thank you. guest: very good questions. ertainly senator rubio's

relative inexperience compared to this race. certainly what's been a primary. until recently senator rubio's campaign stops here in new hampshire were less robust. but he has stepped up his campaign schedule. he has talented people on the ground. he's got a very good campaign organization. but certainly governor bush, governor casic, governor christie, they would all if you asked them for rubio ready to be president if they would also say no. f would ask whether they u were qualified to be president they would say no. so as far as new hampshire goes so goes the nation.

i believe in the general election that is by the time who rolls around new hampshire wins the electoral votes will be president of the united states. that's not a crap shoot but it's certainly a friendly game of chance. the odds of us having one of the nominees is very good. we almost always have one of the nominees. we've had both. but many times, we have not. and we may not this time. host: and jan makes this final point. guest: what's i want resting he senator rubio is that

engenders other than donald trump some of the most positive responses and some of the most negative at the same time and from different people. along with donald trump, senator marco rubio who seems to have the look, who seems to have the way with words, the articulation, and sometimes the passion of a president. he still engenders among a lot of voters hate. that guy's not reedy. what gives him the right to be at the front of the line as we are pointing out. we'll see on primary day whether that negativity hurts him here. right now he's doing very well in the polls and like i said he's in a position to be the alternative to donald trump. he's just got to beat out these

other governors to do it. host: we also appreciate your time and insights. chief correspondent for nh 1 news. >> douglas brinkley offers a historical perspective on president obama's final year. and bryan bender talks about his examination of the defensive agency. purchasesion makes for the defense department. you can join the conversation on facebook and twitter. "washington journal" his wife at at0 eastern on -- is live

7:00 eastern on c-span. >> president obama released this video on twitter. obama: this is my last state of the union address. our capacity to change for the better is what makes america great. our ability to come together as one american family. we can get closer to the america we believe in. it is who we are. it is what i want to focus on in this state of the union address. with james argan, looking back at the history of annual message. and then at 9:00, our live coverage of the speech, followed by the republican response by

nikki haley. plus, your reaction by phone, facebook, tweets, and email. re-air the state of the union coverage at 11:00 a.m. eastern. also, live on c-span-2 after the speech we will hear live from the members of congress what they think of the president's address. >> c-span takes you on the road to the white house and into the classroom. this year, our student cam documentary contest asks students to tell us what they want to hear about. follow the road the white house coverage and get all of the details about our contest at www.c-span.org. next, a house hearing. ron., "q&a" with marty ba

and then live at 7:00 a.m., "washington journal." on thursday, the house oversight and government reform committee heard from several agencies on why their departments are failing to produce documents pertaining to the committee's inquiries. among those testifying were peoples from the white house office of management and budget. this is just over three hours. >> we expect, required, and need

communication. mr. cummings and i have worked together quite well. we have taken each other's views and ideas into consideration. we don't always agree, but we try as best we can to not be disagreeable. our corroborative approach to oversight has yielded results. the committee has come a long way. last month, we adopted a 195-page report on the secret service, and have written 200 joint letters asking for documents, information, and testimony. when we send a letter, it is not a thank you note or christmas card. a letter from the oversight committee is a little tougher than that. the fact that we have written more than 200 joint letters speaks a lot to the approach we are trying to take. we need cooperation from the agencies themselves. it might be helpful to clarify

our expectations when we talk about cooperation. we are different in the united states of america. we are open and transparent and self-critical. that is why the congress formed this committee under a different name. it has grown, expanded, contracted, and gone through a variety of different names along the way. the function of oversight has been here since the foundation of our nation. a long, long time ago, people felt it wise to look at every expenditure made by the federal government. when the committee sends a request, we expect an honest effort to identify and collect the response. we expect communication. we expect to be informed. we expect that you will work with us in good faith, which means that when you make a commitment, do what you say you will do. republicans and democrats share the goal of a more efficient