of the deterrence effort. it is wide. there seems to be another search coming. there seems to be another search coming and i am not sure they can stop it. a two-pronged approach. not the message that was being sent a year and a half ago. at the same time it is a democratic administration so they are trying to have it both ways. they are also increasing money for refugees vetting. that kind of sense a mixed message to people that yes we want you to calm if you have legitimate asylum claims but you

will be vetted. a program that president obama has used executive action to shield up to 5 million immigrants from deportation. these are long-term folks who've been here and that is held up in the courts. the community is upset at one level. brian: is that program that has been reviewed by the courts. >> the director expressed confidence that our immigration policy would not change. you both feel same way? brian: i don't see an opening for change. >> at the moment no. eventually yes. >> thank you.

>> c-span takes you on the road to the white house and into the classroom. we want to welcome back charlie cook. tonight's debate is the final debate before democrats vote in iowa and new hampshire. howou look at this race does this stack up? charlie cook: they say gosh isn't this exciting. not really.

if you believe that the biblical process is important and you believe that the presidency is , some of thething aspects of this campaign are not pleasant. you are seeing some folks running who are necessarily qualified for the job. odyis something of a par of the presidential race. but you have to deal with what you got. advisors to hillary clinton believes that her campaign made some serious miscalculations when it was challenged by bernie sanders. tonight in south carolina along with martin o'malley. cook: perhaps the clinton folks didn't take

sanders as seriously as they should have. it would be a horrible mistake for him to them to go after him very hard right now. youthfulng to need his supporters in a general election. going to-old is not naturally get the enthusiasm that barack obama got in 2008. the danger of clinton losing to bernie sanders is very very small. iowa ands strong in the caucus states and he is strong in new hampshire and new england. once you get further down into the schedule of primaries. sanders is not very strong. his support is pretty narrow. not much danger of her

losing the nomination to bernie sanders. if you told me that hillary clinton was not going to be the democratic nominee my money thed be that that meant justice department moved ahead and maybe things got messy and democrats looked for the red box on the wall and inside it has joe biden's phone number. i don't think sanders can realistically be clinton. dan balls asks can clinton turned the tables on sanders? she arrives in the middle of a rocky stretch. she is facing possible defeat in the first two contests of the year. charlie cook: if you move the

debate to national security sanders doesn't have a whole lot to say. inequality and free college tuition and he ines an eloquent argument that narrow space. once the debate broadens, he gets thinner. february includes south carolina and nevada. how is said is going to do in south carolina? ?r nevada probably not very well. did you get into the southern primary states. other than massachusetts there is no place that sanders is going to do well. his good places are frontloaded.

she says i am tested and i know the job and i've been around. i'm ready for it. knowledgeable. the democratic party doesn't have a real big bench right now. she says i know the job and i can do it that's basically it. >> you mentioned vice president he regrets not being in the race but he says it was the right decision. charlie cook: you have to throw your heart and soul into it. if something happens down the road and democrats needed to i would say to

increase value. >> ted cruz is glad to finish the fight with donald trump. telegraph has chosen john kasich. charlie cook: you have the mainstream conventional establishment people. among bushly split and christie and rubio and casey. cruz and you have ted huckabee and santorum.

thatruz is dominating space. the populist side trump.s donald while ted cruz has consolidated the right and donald trump is consolidating his group, this other area is badly split. that is what new hampshire's going to do it will narrow that group of four down to two or even one. and then the race really starts. it is absolutely wide open.

william: i like to ask charlie concerning the contestants and their comments about the 10 sailors on their knees with their hands behind their heads. i am a navy man i retired from the navy and i knew you do you are told to do. the uss pueblo which was captured in 1968 is being used as a tourist attraction in north korea? e-mails to john .ccain and lindsey graham i have not received a response.

>> the day of the sailors immediately chris matthews said that would show up in campaign ads. charlie cook: i think it will. and as an american you winced at what you saw. the outcome turned out to be as good as could possibly be. i'm not sure of all have a huge impact. what is important is that the american sailors were not harmed and were returned. the outcome was good. it was something that none of us like to see. in terms of the pueblo, that is not my thing.

it looks like the iranians are living up to their part of the deal. i don't think it will be a major factor. tim: i think the guests of the you have such as charlie. i hope we see more of these people. the more donald trump looks like he has some ability to become

frames theow that outlook for bernie sanders that he'd then stressed look a little bit more reasonable. still a trumpi am .enier i'm still very skeptical about whether donald trump can win. i know there is an enormous amount of anger out there.

specifically among conservatives. a feeling of wanting to send the career politicians a message. i get that. icg group is more of the vehicle for anger than someone who will get the republican nomination. evenme point along the way these very very angry populists will start thinking about temperament and judgments and thely visualize trump in situation room during an international crisis surrounded by the joint chiefs and the director of national intelligence with his finger on the button. a lot of these trump people are start looking for a

more plausible vehicle for their anger. a more plausible outside candidate. a lot of those people are going to and up in the ted cruz camp. i expect to see ted cruz in the final two along with one of the mainstream candidates. there is an endorsement of power to donald trump's cause. he gone farther than anybody thought. familiarity with matters of public policy. that will win out in the end. the new york times sunday magazine has a piece about the democratic party called left turn.

national journal has a piece about paul ryan. he said the focus is going to be on five policy areas. national security jobs economic growth poverty and restoring the constitutional balance of power. how will that play out in an election year. what are the must do's that they have to do to keep government-funded. it will be a little bit more of a reactive one. not a lot of history in election year of congress moving forward

in making affirmative actions on big things. ryan is steering things in a direction where down the road once we have a new president we could have some movement on these issues. the i will caucus is not picked her up on the 88. charlie cook: whoever comes first is going to get a lot of attention. once we see the conventions iowa and new hampshire may be less important than they used to be. ,f observation changes behavior

iowa and new hampshire had been watched way too closely for way too long in an unusual way. muchve been tainted by too ands and show much coddling too many special interests going in there trying to pull up in one way or the other. it is not a little exotic. let's face it. most of the 94% of their public and delegates are picked after iowa and new hampshire. >> this may be wishful thinking but we haven't had a question as to who the nominee would be other coincide with ronald reagan challenged all the way to convention. charlie cook: i don't use the

term brokered convention. our political process doesn't have brokers anymore. there is as high chances there has been modern times of having a contested convention. ted cruz continues to and chasing could christie consolidates the conventional side and donald trump is subsiding but still has enough heft that you have three people go in and nobody is near majority. that is where the fight starts. that is where it gets interesting.

lynn: it is nice to speak to in how who is involved you think things are going. exampleious segment is of the power of donald trump's candidacy. he has brought up the citizenship issue. i am enthralled and we have an outsider and i'm not motivated by anger i am motivated that he has the ability to put a spotlight on certain issues and i taken naively maybe i am a woman and i give people the benefit of the doubt. but i think it was a valid subject.

what if this thing blew up after we have a nominee? we have another stage of chaos? i have a certain amount of experience because we serve the country and we lived in holland in the 1970's. our first child was born over there. we are long-term americans. all the people in the hague were the diplomatic corps. all their babies could become president but for 40 years we have lived with the idea that our oldest son can never be president. that is what we were told at the time. we got our passport from the embassy of the consulate. donald trump as the outsider is trying to spotlight these issues. if you are not a party i don't want to have

one more push or one more clinton. they have had their turn. of theme the concepts president being a civilian. a guy who has a little political experience but on the other hand the constitution says you have you don't even have to go to college. i these lawyers are right that our kid could become president. steve: his messages make america great again. what you think of that slogan?

lynn: i respect jeb bush. he has his finger on the reality of the job. it is still a revolving door. the cynicism involved in the is out ofclass control. i wish trump would clean up his filthy language. it is exciting that he says the .19 trillion in debt he has said i don't approve of that.

i don't approve of the wall. steve: voters are not feeling the love for bush three. bush is kind jeb of like the younger brother whose older brother wrecked to the family car. this is not the bush brand that dad left behind. it is not the bush brand that his brother inherited. it doesn't have a whole lot to do with jeb bush personally. i hope the is that best person wins. i don't care what their last name is. or who they were married to. is it somebody who's qualified and smart?

there is an enormous amount of discontent out there. people want change. the change that the bernie sanders supporters are looking for is different from what the donald trump supporters are looking for. we don't know how this thing is going to sort itself out. see nominees will for each side that are people that have served in government .n some way we've never had one who didn't have any government experience. is one thing to have a

vehicle for that anger but who you decide to hold that job at the very end. my hunch is that once they start thinking about temperament and judgment you will see the anublican nomination go to angry outsider but someone who's a little more plausible than donald trump. steve: our guest is charlie cook.

he says i use the term brokered back convention. is carried on the bbc parliament's channel. i want to ask you about events in the united kingdom. vote asking for donald trump to be banned from the united kingdom. if trump is banned from the country does he take that as a positive or negative?

i think eventually they will vote to allow him into the country. the leader of the labour party trump to seenvited the multicultural society in his constituency. he could come to my place in central manchester and check out the multicultural people here. how people get along in this country. they will put the knife into him but then they will say he can come the country anyway.

charlie cook: the rest of the world looks to the united states for leadership. they see turmoil here. there is considerable concern that, what the world is going on over here. petition, i don't know what

is going to come of it. concernmanifestation of that is around the world about what is happening here. steve: you can watch the debate live here for britain tomorrow morning about trump. charlie cook: on the republican expertiseience or seem so most of your disqualifier.

people are so unhappy that the idea of experience as an essential qualification has pretty much gone out the window. democrats turned away from it back in 2008 and republicans seem like there's a fair chance they will do that again this time. i'm michael mccaul anybody any names. for a lot ofle anger. a lot of resentment. a frustration that is out there. a desire to shake things up. whether they go in his direction, i am skeptical.

gayla: we just saw a 13 hours about benghazi. do you think that movie will resonate with voters? my dad was in vietnam twice. i would never vote for any theblishment because of democrats or who did this. this is the way that our country is going. the e-mail scandal. this is why we no longer trust the establishment. i am a trump supporter. even though i don't like everything he says. i think he makes bold statements to bring attention to them. he actually says what he is thinking.

charlie cook: i have not seen the movie 13 hours. i know there is considerable debate about whether everything in the movie is accurate. i wasn't there. i know the cia station chief has objected to part of it. defense,r secretary of bob gates, said there is nothing he would have done differently. clearly a horrible tragedy occurred. security was not what it should have been. whether there were the resources for us to go and and help those .eople out in real time there's a lot of debate about

whether that is true or not. hollywood takes things in a direction to draw certain conclusions. it is not always entirely true. steve: five years after citizens united i want to share with you one number. charlie cook: once the supreme

court ruled that spending was a form of speech the decision flowed from that. i'm not comfortable with the assumption that if that is the way the law is going to be this is what we're going to have. we have some really wealthy people on the left and some really wealthy people on the right. if the supreme court reinterprets the constitution in a different way, until then this is where we are. >> i want to know who you are.

charlie cook: i was born and raised in shreveport louisiana. i went to georgetown. i worked on capitol hill. worked for a polling firm. worked for a trade association. 1984 i started this newsletter. i had watched campaigns and analyzed them. another six of us. i am a registered independent. pretty middle-of-the-road philosophically.

here are some of the ads.

charlie cook: it is useful to think about what is happened to the two parties. you go back 50 years. the conservative and yous from the south took about 80% of them and maybe half the moderates the party would move way over to the left. that is exactly what has happened. the same thing on the republican side. if you took out 80% of the liberals that were in the republican party that party

would move way over to the right. ideological sourcing. a democratic party with the far left center of gravity and the republican party with the far right center of gravity. a mushy middle with people who don't feel comfortable with either side. hillary clinton who was on the left end of her husbands of administration is scrabbling to keep up with her party which is moved further left. jeb bush was a very conservative governor but now finds himself relatively speaking on the left side of the republican party. the party moved out from under him. advertisemen here are some more advertisements

cook: real estate's

location location location. in politics is all about timing. the bush name is consistent with establishments and normal traditional public in politics. this is a time where none of those are being held in particularly high regard. among a lot of republicans. that maybe jeb bush isn't quite as gregarious as his brother. he may not be the natural campaigner that his brother was. at the same time a lot of these problems are really related to the last name and the brand and not to him specifically. also to have a party has changed.

chris: good morning. about the iranian deal. if one of the republican candidates were elected president what action could they to change or delay or terminate the deal? what kind of timeline would we be looking at? charlie cook: this is a little out of my lane. my understanding is that the key nuclear materials were removed from the country within the last there were a days

lot of fears that the iranians would not do that but they have in fact on that so i don't see that would really be counterproductive for us to undo the deal because it would mean that nuclear materials would go back into iran. materials that had already left. a lot of people very suspicious about this deal and whether it would work. areeems the rainy ends living up to what they said they were going to do. steve: daryl kimball from the arms control association will be here to talk about this in greater detail.

charlie cook: it is interesting that trump is running against the media even though he is kind of a product of the media. on various television shows if they can say the donald trump is going to be on the show their ratings go sky high. intrump will be calling ratings go sky high. and talk about donald trump eyes remained glued to the screen. the media is absolutely delighted with the donald trump story because it is gathering

eyeballs that are normally paying attention to politics. i think he is one of the most skilled real estate developers in the world. but he is also been living in new york and a student of the media how it works. is been very effective at manipulating the media to his own benefit. it's a free country so it is obviously fair and legal. i'm still skeptical about the end of the day when republicans get to cleveland whether they are actually going to nominate him. steve: thank you for all your calls and tweets. sirius xm radio 124 the potus channel. ken:

the spirit of our initial constitution was that this was not supposed to be a political class. as i got around town halls in new hampshire i get a feeling of what the people are thinking. about makeking america great again. , her mother was take our country back. i see people warming up to that idea. i also see the crowds that she is getting. she's getting enormous crowds in this state. as opposed to some of the other candidates.

the donaldbeen to trump town halls of the way imagine he gets big crowds. i want to get your thoughts on the idea of a citizen government. how did we get to where we are? steve: we covered a donald trump rally yesterday. carly fiorina is very bright and talented and she is tapping into some of the anger that is out there. have doubts about whether there is enough of a campaign apparatus underneath her to help her take full advantage of this. she has muscled her way into the top tier of the debates.

you may well see her name pop up on the running mate lists. seen the big crowds that he is talking about but i'm sure he's right. nobody has ever been elected president without having citizens and voters behind them.

who's prepared to actually do the job? is this is a difficult job. if you don't understand the magnitude of the job and some of the issues and you would not be affected dealing with the other party and members of congress peopleld leaders then will to get second thoughts about it. a lot of people complain about how long are presidential campaigns are. i think it is kind of a good thing. this is a marathon. really goodo take a long look at these candidates. before a final decision is made. the new york times has a

photograph of bernie sanders as he prepared for the debate. mike: this guy cook seems all right but he is really underestimating the trouble factor. trump is going to win iowa and new hampshire. all the polls show it. look at the momentum. issed.ericans are p with heady years of obama leading from behind. we want a guy who is going to really lead. somebody who's going to go over and sell iran if you don't like it get with it.

so he is going to negotiate a backdoor deal that really doesn't help united states in any way whatsoever. but puts billions of dollars in iran's hands to go around funding terrorists. that would pay for attacks against our country. a you don't think so you're fool. we can't afford four more years .f hillary who lies green is families at the airport from a godly. she allow those people in benghazi to go over and rescue those people is this the woman we want running our country? all the sleazy money she is taken into her organization? the clinton foundation. people are angry. that is why trump is going to win it all. we will be a great america again. that is just the way it is. i am absolutely going to caucus

on federally first. i don't remember who i supported for years ago. that is just out bad the candidates were four years ago. i think was romney. cook: i think donald trump is going to do very well in both iowa and new hampshire, first or second in each one. although ted cruz is coming on very strong in iowa. it is starting in the march primaries. if donald trump has the numbers in the polls in march that he will, mythen that i opinion will change. people are still in the ventilating of their anger

phase. venting their spleens. point i think there's going to be a slight deviation in a certain direction. a midcourse correction. that ted cruz is going to come across as a more plausible alternative for some of those trump and carson supporters. as they fall apart. but mike may be right. i am a skeptic about trump. i could ted cruz was very good in the debate. i am a registered independent. i don't agree with ted cruz on everything. is one of the smartest

politicians i've ever met. you see wheels turning in his head. a formidable candidate. clearly the best campaign on the republic inside. a strategy that makes a lot of sense. i think will come down to ted cruz and a more conventional candidate. and i have no idea what republicans will do them. joan: i am going to vote for hillary. we need to take care of home first.

that somebody older people vote and they should be going after our votes instead of alienating older people. state, how they let karen to go up and up and up? we didn't get any money to help us this year at all. cook: i didn't catch what state. oh, colorado. vote will count a lot more than most everybody else's. facts of modern florida andthat virginia and new hampshire and nevada arelorado and the people who will decide the election. 40 to 43 states, we

already know which way those states are going to vote. it will be a pretty small number of states that decides the election. colorado will count a lot more than most other people's. charlie cook: republicans now have a 54-46 majority in the senate. they need a four seat gain if

they hold the white house and made a five seat gain if they don't hold the white house. is challenge for republicans raw numbers. we have to keep in mind, six-year terms. this year republicans have 24 seats up at risk and democrats only have 10. of the 24 seats, seven of them are in states that president obama carried. upre is zero democrat states in states that mitt romney carried. one of them is chuck grassley in iowa and he will get reelected. are mark kirk in illinois, ron johnson in wisconsin, kelly ayotte of new ohio,ire, rob portman in the open seat in florida, pat toomey in pennsylvania, those

six republican seats are in real danger. harry reid's open seat in nevada is the only democratic seat that his incomparable danger. stateshree or four other where each side is trying to make it competitive. right now i would bet on republicans losing about three seats so they would keep their majority. but it could be more than that. to have some really close senate races. some of these races are also some of the closest presidential races in those states. new hampshire, ohio, florida, nevada. race has presidential a little bit of wind at their backs in the final stretch of those key states, that is the way that was senate seats could easily tipped as well. the senate is going to be a very

close call. but that flips around next time in 2018 when democrats have a huge number of seats up and republicans have very few. steve: we will have you back often. always good to have you here, charlie cook. >> on the next washington journal political reporter rachel bade talks about hillary clinton's e-mails. daryl kimball, executive director of the arms control association, on the next steps in the implementation of the iran nuclear deal. you can join the conversation. tomorrow.a.m.

next q&a with aviva kempner. ♪ announcer: this week, documentary filmmaker aviva kempner. she discusses her latest film, americand," about the businessman and philanthropist julius rosenwald. , why didiva kempner you do a documentary on julius rosenwald? aviva: i was lucky enough to be at martha's vineyard to attend a lecture that rabbi david saperstein, who is nor