today with the headline the rest of the republican rivals by for third place in iowa. candidates try to present themselves as alternatives to donald trump and ted cruz. rivals are and other subscribing to an old adage. there are three tickets out of iowa. historically that has been true, typically if you didn't fish in one of the top three slots your campaign probably wasn't going very far for much longer. certainly finishing at the bottom generally results in dropping out. this was not true for john mccain. he finished at a very close fourth and became the nominee in 2008 but otherwise it's typically true. the question of whether it is determined will be later. polling at this point suggests

ted cruz and donald trump neck and neck and marco rubio fairly far behind. the rest of the field, rand paul may be close to rubio and the rest of the field is dropping back. the real question is the value of third-place even this time, given what i have been calling the trump umbrella. the reason this matters, and we document this in the book in "why iowa? the question is how the media talks about the outcome afterwards. we see very real shifts and media attention waste on whether in, do better than expected, or do worse. if you do worse the media starts ignoring you and that is a killer for candidates typically. you do better than expected, lots of media attention shifts to you. while herick santorum,

was not announced as the winner on caucus night, he was the one or. mitt romney was second. huge media shift to rick santorum post-iowa. he didn't get the nomination but his campaign went further than it would have otherwise. the difference this time for , given whatis that we are seeing with the media and donald chunk, it is hard for me to imagine shifts in attention. donald trump wins, it will be all trump all the time and if he doesn't, it will still be all trump all the time. this is a very odd year. for the democrats, the same thing happens typically. but for democrats if a smaller field with only three candidates. if bernie sanders wins, there will be a lot of talking about how it is just like 2008 and hillary clinton lost again which will not be to her advantage. wins, i think she's

in much better shape but if she barely wins, that might be a win for sanders. then there is martin o'malley who is pulling much lower than 15%. but through various possibilities, might do better than expected. said,to add to what he this is from the washington times, saying on the republican side i don't think there's any doubt that iowa is, if not make or break, close to that for ted cruz because if senator cruz doesn't win iowa eight makes it even more difficult to imagine anyone other than mr. trump winning new hampshire. let's go to teresa in des moines. will you be caucusing? guest: absolutely. host: four home? whom. all hillary clinton.

if any of you martin o'malley voters don't win, you can always go my way. i have a question. you don't think it's stupid but i wondered this forever. who, exactly is an evangelical voter? host: not stupid at all, thank you. guest: no, not stupid. from the standpoint of categorization, we are talking about people that will tell us on a survey that they are born again christian. they will typically tell us they are very conservative. and issues like abortion and same-sex marriage are high on often just the most important issues for them. the other thing we often ask in surveys is how often people go to religious services. evangelicals will show us very

strong tendencies to go much more often than most. there are also certain denominations that can be identified but there's a lot of self identification that goes on here. many say something about horsetrading. intin o'malley as many know the democratic forum the other night told delegates the hold straw. it is trending on twitter. don'te meant by that is go over to another candidate. the problem is in some precincts, if you doesn't reach the threshold, those folks have to realign or convince enough people to join them to reach the threshold which means taking them from clinton or sanders. or literally go home. chance to hold

straw with o'malley after the first alignment if he's not viable. host: how many go home? guest: not a lot but there are always some. anecdotally in 2004, a good number of kucinich supporters when they were viable in there on precinct to go home and did not stay to realign but i think that is relatively rare. host: front page of the washington times, rnc backs down from nomination rules because the nomination rule change to trip trump. donald trump's campaign feels it can ill afford anything less than a first ballot win. the republican party this month has been privately warned not to attempt to change its rules this late in the game. several influential leaders on the republican national tomittee withdrew plans lower the threshold and make it easier for other candidates to challenge mr. trump.

walk us through this. is, tothe starting point win the nomination you need 50% plus one of the delegates at the convention. that's the most important point. there is some probability, we don't know what it is until .oters start voting if you look at the polling, mr. trump is pulling in the early states at about one third. the field may of be hard for anyone to get 50% plus one. if that happens you go to the convention on the first ballot and see what the numbers are. and the convention the horse trading begins. thebeing able to challenge front runner if it is trump or anybody. what makes it interesting is that every convention,

essentially adopts its rules as one of the first things it does. in theory, the rules are changeable right up to the last minute. inreat example way back 1976, when ronald reagan was challenging, they came to the republican convention unclear whether ford actually had 50% plus one. the very first battle was over end, the and in the ford forces one and it became clear he would win. david redlawsk co-author of "why iowa?" thank you, we appreciate your time. next we will turn our attention to this feud between fox news and donald trump. he will not show up at tonight's debate in des moines, iowa. he will be hosting his own rival event and we will cover it on

c-span the same time as the debate. we want to ask you if fox news is biased against donald trump. those are the numbers on your screen. we will get to your calls and during our conversation, we will go back to iowa periodically to talk to iowa voters. john is there at the smokey row coffeehouse in downtown des moines. >> a typical morning. we have already seen a carson 2016 hat. for atted with supporters couple different campaigns. she is a bernie sanders supporter and lives here in des moines and works at a children's hospital. why are you supporting bernie sanders? isi think the main reason because i think a lot of things need to change. health care is one of the big ones. i believe it is a right for health care and not a privilege and i believe we are better off

if we have healthy people in the united states. that's one of his big platforms. i come from this personally and professionally. when you say personally, tell us about the personal story. >> i have two children with chronic health care conditions. i have a good job and we have insurance but the cost is tremendous even when you have to pay without insurance. i think people don't realize that. for the last three years, we have had to make a lot of changes. i don't know how people can do that in a sustainable way. joe gonzalez, a retired police officer also a bernie sanders supporter. joe: politics has people really frustrated. the days of democrats and republicans are by the wayside.

i think it's time for us to get together and work on issues and not just talk about rhetoric and argue and not get anything accomplished. .e do need to shake that we need to make sure we are moving forward and to the best we can because we are falling behind in a lot of areas. i think it's the shot in the arm we need. getting everybody motivated again. is there something different about this election? something fundamentally different from past elections are candidates? >> i think it's different because we have a couple candidates that are leading don't seem like traditional candidates. the kind that have been in politics as normal for some time. to me that's different in both the republican and democratic side. i think that's been a different aspect. >> you said living here in des

moines and iowa when it comes to politics, you just have to live with it. >> it's part of the culture because we have been first in the nation caucuses for so long. when you live here that's just part of the culture. we start hearing about them,ates, we talked to and they start here. >> is iowa a must win for bernie sanders? are you looking nationally or just a monday night? >> i think it's important to get that start. canou get the start here it feed off of whatever is going on in the rest of the country. people are on the fence and they see he is going good and it gets the ball rolling. i don't think it's important but it would be good. i keep a lookout across the country to see how they are doing in different areas because it's interesting to see. the smallk at

contributions, you know there are a lot of people out there. i appreciate the fact that he doesn't take money from super pac's. we are getting to the point where the more money you spend on a candidate that to get in. >> must win on monday? he does, but if he does it takes a different trajectory. i think he is strong in new hampshire as well and that's where we look first. i don't think it is must win but i think you will still be in their that i do think he will win. >> thank you so much. back to greta in the studio. host: one word. momentum. we will continue to talk to iowa voters in the washington journal this morning but first, we also want to get your thoughts on fox news. megyn kelly.

donald trump is not showing up because he doesn't think megyn kelly has been fair. also saying fox news is toying with him. that roger ailes directed himself when he first talked about not china. it is a debate for iowa voters in des moines. -- when he first talked about not showing up. let's talk about megyn kelly's question of the first gop debate. the things: one of people love about you is you speak your mind and don't use a politicians filter. however that is not what it sounds like when it comes to women. you call women you don't like fat cakes, dogs, and disgusting animals. donald trump: only rosie o'donnell. megyn kelly: no it wasn't. -- for ther account

record, it was well beyond rosie o'donnell. your twitter account has several disparaging comments about women's looks. told a contestant on celebrity apprentice it would be a pretty picture to see her on her knees. does that sound like the temperament of a man we should elect as president and how would you answer the charge for hillary clinton who is likely to be the democratic nominee, that you are part of the war on women? host: that sparked a few between donald trump, megyn kelly, and roger ailes has defended megyn kelly. papers, the statement he put out about donald trump if yes as president not receiving fair treatment from the ayatollah and vladimir putin appeared to take heed of megyn kelly. the vanity fair has megyn kelly on its cover and inside she tells vanity fair that in

preparation for moderating her debate, fox news research assistants put together massive binders on the candidates on everything they never said on every topic. as she read trumps, a couple of themes emerged. one that hadn't been explored was his sexism. knowing that if hillary clinton were the nominee should hit them with that question. she said she wrote it, researched every line, it was interesting after the date -- the debate when people started fact checking the question. she drafted and redrafted it and showed it to her fellow moderators, chris wallace and brett beyer, whose initial reaction was let's think about this, there was clearly going to be pushed back. wellington, new jersey, independent choler. what do you think? guest: how are you today? host: great. caller: i agree with donald trump.

i don't think we can lump all these commentators into one basket. i think fox is basically fair to donald trump because bill o'reilly had him on. alumina,to, maria bart these are people that are fair. chrished that debate with wallace and megyn kelly and i was appalled at the treatment that donald trump got by all three but particularly megyn kelly. i wish martha was in her spot tonight and i think donald trump would have shown up. host: what is it about that question that you think is unfair? caller: i'm going to answer it this way. often, people get upset at the question that is asked, but what they don't think about is the way that it's asked. i think it's obvious megyn kelly has a bias against donald trump, not only with the question, but

the way it's asked. saying this.an i don't like megyn kelly, i've never liked her because i think she's an opportunist. continuesd that fox to pump her up the way they do after her behavior in that first debate. i just want to make one more quick comment. i was a supporter of donald trump from the beginning and also ted cruz. andr seeing ted cruz's marco rubio's behavior, i wouldn't vote for either one of them. i think their behavior is appalling. --t: that is mary lou who is a fox viewer who is upset with megyn kelly. itthe way, from vanity fair, says megyn kelly reports some primetime specials are coming down the pike at fox news. one cents as she is thinking one step ahead of this development and restlessly pushing at the constraints. charlie rose does it and he does

it well but that doesn't mean nobody else can, says kelly. i think there a spiritual component to my personality that is unutilized in my current job. note to television executives of you are. -- everywhere. good morning to you, what do you think? i hope you have a fantastic morning and i really think you are fair. but megyn kelly, i agree, she was terrible. she didn't take into the other ones like she did him. she tried to make a spot of it and she made a full of herself. host: what about roger ailes? caller: i think it's ridiculous, he should fire her. she is just trying to get her own show. she is jealous. i am going to vote for him. i am a democrat but i like what he does. if clinton was running i would vote for him in a minute.

but donald trump will get it done. host: who? caller: bill clinton. i love bill clinton but hillary clinton is ok but she's no bill clinton. we go to michigan, dave, a republican. what do you think about fox news and donald trump? caller: good morning. i will take a different view and say i am not a defender of fox that megyn kelly has done a great job and i think trump would be a disservice as president. this is coming as a republican. i think you would be dishonorable and treat the presidency as an opportunity to bully people from the highest office. he is just a bully. host: who is your candidate? i am definitely a supporter of senator rand paul of kentucky.

know, it seems like he has a lot of support in michigan. i haven't seen many that support trump. i've seen a lot of ben carson, ted cruz, rand paul. it feels like donald trump says these bombastic things to try and ride tv coverage to the white house. host: rand paul will be back on the debate stage tonight. ahead of the caucus in five days. he will be back on the stage. debatein the undercard that he refused to participate in last time but he will be back on the main stage tonight at 9:00 p.m. eastern. at the same time donald trump is having his own rally in iowa at the same time as the fox news debate. more coverage here on c-span and we ask you all to call in tomorrow, give us your thoughts as you watch. caller: how are you doing.

here is my spin on it. shows consistency by checking the backgrounds of other candidates and ask him hot questions, she is at least there. onlyf donald trump is the one she's going after, then it is a hatchet job. i believe other people have backgrounds that to be checked enable people to be checked, that should be checked, if she just goes after trump, i kind of think that -- host: did you watch the debate? you got the questions she and the other moderators asked were not as tough? of, youthat's kind know, for some reason, generally, you don't ask those kinds of questions. if you're going to be that kind theyrson, i remember checked the backgrounds of people. if you're going to check

backgrounds of people, i say it is ok to do it. i wouldn't do it but if you would do it, you have to do it consistently. you can't just do it to one person. then it looks like you are out to get them. host: but tough is fair in your opinion? caller: yes, if she wants to do that, because she said she double checked. she did a real good thing. she wanted to make sure she had it and did not want to look bad. host: ok, we heard your point. riley. good morning. megyn kelly went out of line. this country has big problems to talk about.

he doesn't like women, he called women this? come on, that is not the bait. -- that is not debate. i am not going to watch fox news anymore because they make a joke out of a big deal. this is a country going down. talking about what trump calls a women? give me a break. host: are you supporting donald trump? -- er: host: hi bill. caller: good morning greta. roger ailes does not want donald trump to be the republican candidate and he knew what this would cause. biased, she would ask the jeb bush, how do you

think you can win the presidency with so many people hating your brother for starting the iraq war? and she would have asked ted canadiandid you have dual citizenship? that would've been fair and balanced. host: i don't know about the that first, but in debate, jeb bush was asked about iraq and his brother. deliveredt it wasn't she didningful way like with donald trump. she was sneering and smiling. host: bill in canton, illinois. are you a trump supporter? caller: i was a bernie supporter but i am with donald trump all the way. when i watch fox news it is only bill o'reilly. host: and donald trump on bill o'reilly show last night.

bill o'reilly, the two of them sparring over whether or not donald trump should show up. he held strong and he will not be. iowadebate taking place in and as we said, c-span in iowa leading up to monday night, including our newly redesigned american presidents exhibit sponsored by media come. it is currently at the valley west mall in des moines, iowa through february 14. visitors can see an oil painting of each president, watch video, biography, listen to audio recordings of presidential speeches from roosevelt to carter, and view photographs that capture each president's time in the white house. we made a stop to talk with visitors to talk with visitors and civic groups. they thanks to media conference sponsoring this exhibit. iacom for sponsoring this exhibit.

for some, it is the excitement of the political horse race that drives interest in the election. for others it is the importance of a single issue and for diana, it is food security. you can see her button she is wearing. explain what food security is. >> food security is having nutritious food that is available to you in your grocery store. and that you can afford to buy. and sustainable. so your family can always have the nutrition they need for a healthy living. my issue for a lot of reasons, but the one i would like to focus on is actually what i have learned in my work with hunger. the importance of pregnant mothers and the first three to five years of life. and the importance of food security during that time, because statistics show and scientific research has shown

that if you do not have good nutrition down here, it affects your entire life. forward,st carry that your ability to handle school so it affects your education which affects your job and it affects your heaklth. if you do not have good nutrition down here, you are more than likely than the general population to have a tonic disease and more than likely to get it earlier -- a chronic disease and more likely to get it earlier. we would save some much money if we would actually feed children. >> do you think the candidates are talking about it enough? >> no. >> who's talking about it the best? >> actually it is very subtle. there is nothing direct where anyone that i have heard, and i

watch a lot of tv. no one has actually said anything about this. you might hear poverty every once in a while but i have never heard any candidate say anything about food security. >> thank you for talking to us about it. greta, as we continue to walk we said there are representatives, enthusiasts, voters for every campaign including martin o'malley. excuse me. talk to me about why you are supporting martin o'malley. o'malley i think has a history of being pro-immigrant and that is something i feel the other candidates have not really been. i was born and raised in des moines but i have a lot of friends and connections in the latino community. i feel that for that reason

alone, that's the biggest reason i support a o'malley because he has been pro-immigrant from the beginning. he also acts on it. i think o'malley should have the latino vote. martin o'malley is clearly an underdog in the democratic race. how does that impact you as you go to the caucuses on monday night? >> it doesn't impact me, i am o'malley and i will be. the only thing i can do is be the voice for other people and once they ask me why, i can let them know. has me try to jump on their bandwagon and that is what politics is all about, but i feel strongly advocating for martin o'malley. that's who i will be caucusing for. >> is there an acceptable second choice? >> my second choice has been bernie sanders. but i don't really have a second

choice if that makes sense. >> think you so much for your time. back to you in the studio. i comes new hampshire on february 9. the front page of been a hash and martin o'malley are in for the new hampshire debate with msnbc and the union leader. sanders campaign put out a statement accusing hillary clinton of only wanting a debate because the dynamics of the race have changed. the dnc will not sanction february 4's debate which puts the event at risk without all three top candidates. donald trump has not only feuded alsofox news, he has feuded with many other media outlets including the conservative union leader and new hampshire and its publisher, joe mcquaid who has been on our program before. another editorial in the union leader leading up with days to go before the primary, calling trump a con man.

we go to raleigh, north carolina, democrat. what you think about fox news and donald trump? caller: i really feel -- good morning. i really feel that fox news and donald trump are on the same level. i feel that every time fox news has people, there, they basically, especially when we talk about racial issues. and minority issues. their boys always having people come up there to disrespect black people. the value system is straight up wrong. they are always promoting hate. they always have something negative to say about something. it is never something positive.

host: i hear your point. who is your candidate? caller: i am in between bernie sanders and hillary clinton. my thing for bernie sanders is that, the reason i'm talking about this is i feel it is a really big issue about how minorities are being treated. i think everyone should be treated fairly. it is a really big issue in america about minorities. host: i hear what you're saying. let me show you what bernie sanders had to say after meeting with president obama. on onenly his second one sitdown with the president at the white house yesterday. bernie sanders: the president and i discussed a number of issues. foreign policy, domestic issues, occasionally politics. i enjoyed the meeting and i thought it was a very positive

and constructive meeting. knows in a very tough campaign in iowa and we go to new hampshire. i think with the iowa campaign ends up being about is a one word and that is turnout. we are feeling really good about where we are, and if there is a i am noter turnout saying we can do what barack obama did in 2008, i wish we could but i don't think we can. but if there is a large turnout i think we are going to be struggling. we go to new hampshire and him we are going to fight as hard as we can for a week and i think we have a good chance there. to nevada anding south carolina. by the way, i think we're going to do better in those states than people think. host: bernie sanders, outside

the white house yesterday. by the way, in iowa with less new york city go, mayor bill de blasio is set to campaign for clinton in iowa. that's the headline in the new york times. also, you have this in the papers. hill democrats are aligning with clinton. four democratic candidates we introduced legislation from 2013 that would repeal laws shielding gun manufacturers from liability if their products kill someone. that 2005 law that clinton opposed in center supported is a sign that she is more in line with the democratic base on gun safety. sanders said he backs legislation to remove liability protection. six backing clinton took the senate floor to defend the multinational nuclear deal with iran. antonio in boston, massachusetts. independent.

we are talking about fox news. are they biased against donald trump? caller: i think what they did, donald trump is wrong. she should pay the price. she thinks it's a big deal. opinion, i never liked the girl. i liked o'reilly. he's my favorite at fox. on twitter, it's as this. why is it written that any politician to get softballs? megyn kelly is a lawyer and asked the lawyers question. what you think, leo? --ler: thank you for calling thank you for taking my call. fox.a huge fan of i think megyn kelly was playing the part of the republican party members who don't want donald trump. toy set up this election

pick bush. they wanted bush. where he is at. just like the democrats wanted hillary clinton. now look yesterday when the senators came out of the white house, a different tone. totally different tone than what he was saying before. becausethis is a setup he is not the candidate the republican party wants. they wanted little boy bush. host: will he or won't he show up, only trump with his expanding lead could build such suspense. they say this. the donald is his own man. it is his decision about whether he shows up and suspense should expand the audience is what they write. wall street journal, the leap of trump, they say if president he would be a political black swan and they read this. donald trump's sudden imperfect vessel.

they say he is a leap into the known unknown. for some voters his willingness to take the sleep suggests how far confidence in political leaders has fallen. they write ted cruz is is on oh -- voters can still elevate one of the other candidates. republicans showed this closely book -- should look closely before they lead. what you think about this question? is fox news biased? caller: fox news has always been biased. host: against donald trump. caller: well, you are right. it is something he has said not once but many times. what i am amazed at how ignorant our electorate appears to be. people around the world are laughing at the respect for donald trump. anytime you can talk about going down the street and shooting somebody, you don't hear any response back on that.

campaign andgh his when he has these, he never talks about anything. just how far he is up on the polls. nothing substantial of value. he has been bankrupt three times. what about the people that lost money? he went bankrupt three times. with respect to trying to put them against the nfl. host: that was melvin in fort lauderdale, florida. i want to go back to iowa before we wrap up today's washington journal. go ahead. john: it is close to 9:00 here. we are joined by mickey from ad el, iowa. a town 20 miles west of des moines. she works here in des moines and is a donald trump supporter. tell us how you came to be a donald trump supporter.

>> i have been following them through the year and the campaign session. but i am ready for a business leader to lead our country. we tried politicians and look where we are at. i think a fresh face and somebody new to the political world might benefit. john: how do you think donald trump will do in the conversation leading up to the caucuses? >> he is controversial and on the edge but i think that is what is keeping people spirited and engaged with the process. it will be interesting to see how everything ends. john: donald trump skipping the debate sponsored by fox news, does that concern you? would you like to see your candidate? >> no. i don't think the debates have been that strong. i think they are staged and the questions are there. him putting on his own event is a better thing and i don't think it will hurt him.

john: do you think the media has been fair to donald trump? >> it's hard to say. i think the media pushes on the stories that make news. he has in the news every day without having to do commercials and the other things the candidates have had to do. let's probably benefiting him on the front page every day. here at smokey row coffee shop here in des moines, think you so much for your time. host: the ratings war will be happening tonight. will the voters of iowa be watching the fox news debate with the republican candidates or will they be watching donald trump at a rally in des moines, iowa. we will have coverage of that here on c-span at 9:00 p.m. eastern time. by the way, president obama will be talking with democrats at their annual over treat in baltimore. he will be speaking to the conference this year's theme is unity for opportunity. we look over that tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time on c-span two.

calhoun, georgia. republicans. you think fox news is biased against donald trump? good morning. poor little billionaire. i have to agree with the democrat caller. is surest sign of a bully when you stand up to them and you find out they try to make themselves a victim. they love to dish it out but cannot take it. is not only an american, he's a patriot. host: is ted cruz your guy? caller: he is my guy. i'm going to vote for him even if his name's not on the ballot. on twitter, wild and wonderful says perhaps megyn kelly knows firsthand about the biases against pretty women in traditionally all-male professions. independent from rhode

island. caller: the man from georgia makes a valid point. i am a ted cruz supporter myself. but fox news is biased against mr. trump. put it correct with the mark -- washington cartel. they have these cocktail sipping republicans tactically all supporting jeb bush. they trial to nail them. donald trump is a billionaire but he is not like to make her rich like charles koch. -- he is not megarich like charles koch. like 36,berg up there 30 $7 billion. they can write a $2 billion check and it's like five dollars. brothers,ng from koch they are megarich. host: the new york times says

mr. trump suggested he might demand that cnn pay him $5 million to appear on its debate. he said the money would go to veterans but did not press the demand. earlier this month, mr. trump took credit for persuading abc news to cut the union leader of manchester out of the debate they had planned to sponsor together. citing the newspapers harsh editorials against him. abc said the union leaders tensions with mr. trump had become a distraction. midway, georgia, democrat. what you think? caller: i think the whole thing with megyn kelly is right on in regards that she was talking for women and women should be saying what they need to be saying in regards to this. -- you speakot about one woman, you speak about all. donald trump being on a reality show beyond reality shows. host: indianapolis, republican, go ahead. caller: hello, how are you.

host: good morning. thatr: he even thinks absurd. is for restoring the united states to what it once was under ronald reagan. , what'sers, our economy going on in the middle east, foreign trade. .onald trump is the man to have i am tired of hearing all this stuff about what a bad guy he is. , we have had bad situations on the whole planet. obama has just been throwing gasoline on it. host: i have to run, thank you for the phone calls. more to come. debate is not :00 p.m. eastern time and donald