preferences based on the latest des moines register. we take your calls and you can join the conversation at facebook and twitter. "washington journal" is next. ♪ good morning. it is february 1, two thousand 16. all eyes on iowa. let the voting begin. candidate rallies, 70 million spent on 60,000 tv ads, iowa voters get to go first. followed by new hampshire one week from now. donald trump with 28 percent. ted cruz flipping to 23%. marco rubio at 15%. ben carson at 10.

hillary clinton and bernie sanders and neck with 45% and 42%. from all across the country, who is your candidate and why. republicans, (202) 748-8001. democrats, (202) 748-8000. iowa voters and it new hampshire voters, we want to hear from you. .202) 748-8003 let's begin with the closing arguments from the candidate yesterday. one is what the front runner the republican side had to say. [video clip] really get it. one of the things that came out

is that by far, the tromp person is the most loyal by far. i should not say this in front of jerry. behave in front of jerry. they say donald trump can do anything and they are still going to vote for him, 67 to just about with them, i get into the 90's. other people are at 9%. my people, i adore you. you are going to make a decision soon. we're going to make america great again. host: he made his closing arguments, as did the other candidates. comments as your

well. the front page, caucus as if you were living under a rock. voice be heardur today. who is your candidate and wide. here is a tweet that says it is the beginning of election season. karen says who is my candidate? we will see who when our primaries come up in a few weeks. irregardless of the slander, hillary clinton is the best choice. says wishes will come true and hearts will be broken today. , democrat, you are up

first. good morning. who is your candidate? -- caller:ry clinton hillary clinton. donald trump does not like people at all. it is really bad. how in the world can he lead us? hillary knows. we had a good time between bill and hillary. people cannot deny that. help people while they were in there. they did some things wrong, but i think.good, the: let me ask you about

server and the e-mail address. does that concern you? caller: can anybody in the world think that woman would go against anything in the united states of america? see the cheneys and bushs, all of those people that [indiscernible] come on. philip, are you going to caucus tonight? caller: yes. i intended that i would caucus for tromp, but i am cutting towards crews. even though i love what donald is doing, he has helped

is aish the narrative, he fighter. cruise is -- ted cruz is also a fighter. win unless we fight. i do not want this to be a blowout election so early in the process. cruise is the only 1 -- ted cruz is the only one who has put up that type of fight. it would be better to have donald trump and ted cruz to advance. caucus for i will ted cruz. host: are you saying the only way for him to caucus beyond iowa is if he wins the state? caller: i would not go that far. think it makes the

eventual candidate strong i nee -- candidate strong in the end. for real?rump david, georgia, you're next. who is your candidate? bernie sanders. .e speaks more to the citizens he is not slinging mud, belittling people like the front runner of the other side.

he understands people are not being heard. congressmen on your show, all of them good people. they say the same thing when i ask one question, why can't you fix congress? when you go back to washington, you forget us. bernie has never forgotten the people. host: have you contributed to his campaign? a fixed income. i would love to. i am retired. give him my time. i have plenty of that. host: do you plan to? if someone asks, i will. front page of usa today, bernie sanders campaign announced yesterday it had raised $20 million over the past month, underscoring his skill at

getting online contributions. in all, sanders has received more than $3.2 million contributions. the total means his fundraising pace has increased dramatically. to -- whenearly -- he raised nearly 33 point six main dollars to clinton j k $37 million. ads.llion spent on tv in iowa alone, 60,000 across all of the candidates. in iowa.y is here tune in to c-span.

we will have coverage of two caucuses. let me show you the latest ad on the democratic side. we will begin with hillary clinton. following that, senator sanders. [video clip] >> the time has come to make a choice. we need a president as experienced as hillary. always on your side. fighting for children and families, with a plan to get incomes rising, reduce drug , and protect social security and medicare for seniors. gridlock, notthe add to it, defend the, not attack it.

stand up to the gun lobby, lead on foreign policy. we need a president with the experience and determination to get the job done. >> i am running to make a difference. a real difference for you and your families across our country. i am hillary clinton. i approve this message. [video clip] settledan sachs just for their part in the crisis work.ut millions out of how does wall street get away with it? millions in campaign contributions and speaking fees. our economy works for wall street because it is rigged by wall street. as long as washington is bought and paid for, we cannot build an economy that works for people. usa today with the question -- iowa could answer campaign questions. will democrats turn left?

democrats have chosen the centrist option as the presidential nominee on the theory that was the only way to win the white house. we will see what iowa voters think this evening when republicans and democrats go to the caucuses and throat. we turn to -- go to the caucuses and vote. who is your candidate and why? you can make the argument here on "washington journal." caller: good morning. host: we are listening. caller: good morning, how are you? host: fine. caller: i am for both candidates. i believe the centrist has a better chance of winning. i think bernie sanders has the right message.

i believe every word he says. i know he is honest. i would like to see him be rewarded for his honesty. whoever the nominee is for the democrat, that is who i am going to vote for. i like both of them. host: have you contributed money? caller: i have not. i am on a fixed income. i plan to contribute as we get closer to the election. host: marie, fairfax, virginia. who do you plan to vote for? caller: bernie sanders. host: tell us why. caller: i identify with him. i read his biography, his accomplishments. he is consistent. he is someone i can trust. treats every human being the same. he does not discriminate based on their ethnic race or personal

preferences. he is a very honest individual. i believe in education. how much students struggle when they have to struggle between buying books and buying food. it is a right to have an , not a privilege. penny toave to pay a see bernie. hillary clinton charges to have a picture. bernie never charges a single penny. i am going to register new voters. studentshing

citizenship, so they can vote. why you do not want to support hillary clinton? is ok that people do fund-raising. i believe in that. why is the reason she only targets wealthy people? any person with a fixed income like me cannot afford that. i would not be able to afford or listen to her. she is the nominee, do you vote for the republican? caller: no. i will support hillary clinton. the republicans treat us so bad. i am hispanic. this country illegally. i pay taxes. i am an honest citizen.

-- i entered this country legally. i pay taxes. i am an honest citizen. here, i do not believe the way [indiscernible] james, tampa, florida. who are you supporting? caller: donald trump. host: why? caller: he speaks honestly, about what is going on. like ted cruz because he was not born in america. hamilton, one of the writers of the declaration of independence with thomas jefferson would not run for president because he was not born in america and he stated that soundly. nobody that was not born in this country should be able to --

should become president, and then put that in the constitution. not affiliated [indiscernible] or a mother or a father, but born on the premises of the united states. is an argumentat donald trump has been making. he continues to do so in his tweets. to what ted cruz had to say to the iowa voters yesterday as he made his closing argument in waterloo. [video clip] >> we are here for something more important than politics. we are here because our country is in crisis. we are here because we are bankrupting our kids and grandkids. our constitutional rights are under assault every day. america has receded from leadership in the world and it

is making the world a more dangerous place. i am here with a word of hope and encouragement. state of iowa, across this country, people are waking up. i am here to tell you, help is on the way. iowa city,ruz in making his closing arguments. if you missed any of these events and you want to see what they said, you can go to c-span.org. beyond the top two gop jockeying, mr. rubio and other front republicans trailing p or be as in first may not important as exceeding expectations by outperforming the polls at the first in the nation presidential caucuses. and john mccain lost

iowa. they went on to win the nomination. wall street journal says gop vote hinges on turnout. getting out first time caucus-goers is seen as key to donald trump's chances to win. iowahree faces of republican voters. they are far from a monolith. electives can be divided into three sectors. cruz'sthwest, ted country. this region.d in these are rural conservatives. oranges the southern tier. this is donald trump's supporters. this is the most populist profile area. there is urban iowa, marco rubio is the leading candidate in

these moderate counties. these are the areas to watch tonight as the tallies start to come in. hawkeye state, first in the nation to vote. ted cruz hasing built the most extensive grassroots organization in iowa. more than 12,000 volunteers in the state and over 1500 of the state's precincts. a safety netovide if a snowstorm hits monday that discourages some islands -- i owans from heading outdoors. back to calls. james, tampa, florida. who is your candidate?

we talk to you. sorry, let me move on. rich, you are on the air. i am a democrat. republican i voted for was in 1994. i will change my registration to vote for donald trump. host: what is it about his message? i am on social security. he is the only republican that cut socialnt to security. i think we can do better trade deals. is a caveat. if donald trump is not the republican nominee, i will vote for hillary or vote for the general in the election. donald trump is the only republican i will vote for. if he is not the nominee, i will

vote for the democrat. otherwhat is it about the republican candidates that they could not persuade you to vote for them? caller: they do nothing for veterans benefits and they want to decrease social security. i would never vote for another republican other than donald trump. he said he will vote for donald trump is he is the nominee in the general election. curtis, richmond, virginia. caller: good morning. i am a bernie supporter. like other people, i am tired of having to pick between the better of two evils. meaning the republican party and hillary clinton. black man in his late 60's. people forget hillary ran on a barry goldwater.

husband'sike her ideas, three strike rules and you're out. she is a wolf in sheep's clothing. she is a republican and democratic clothing. the republicans, the whole field, i do not like. host: what are you going to do if she is the nominee? who are you going to vote for? caller: i am going to have to wait for people to stand up. i will not wait for her. i do not like liars. i am usually respectful to women. i think she is in there for herself. host: you said you do not like the republicans. caller: all of these corporatists and at their

workings, just like the former attorney general and the attorney general now. these guys are bankers and lawyers. morris, san diego. who is your candidate and why? supporting marco rubio. i like his approach on how to defeat isis and his stance on immigration and rebuilding the military. one word about hillary and those who support her, she is toast. and anybody who does not think so, they have their head up their assets. host: why do you say she is toast? the fbibecause of investigation. they are completely neutral. this investigation is getting out of her control. i think she is toast. i like a lot of what donald trump has to say, but he is not a good face for the oval office. wouldy other countries

view the united states with him as president would be a circus. i think marco rubio will shock the world and will win the iowa caucus. the momentum will be on his side, going forward. host: front page of the washington times, hillary clinton called for all of her e-mails to be released, including 22 messages the government decided were to secret to disclose. her former employees are being too sensitive in the handling of the information. she was stunned friday when the government announced a classified 22 of the messages as top secret. while those have gotten the most attention, the state department released another batch of more than 900 of the e-mails and deemed 11 of them to contain secret information and 229 to contain confidential data.

that,l hear from vivian new jersey, independents. i think the best choice would be bernie sanders. he would rid our government of political corruption. i agree with him this country needs a political revolution to correct itself. tony, cleveland, ohio. you're on the air. caller: good morning. mrs.ld like to vote for clinton. has more experience than the other candidates. she has been around washington. she can help in some of the issues she brings up, such as the social security, the health believe her

experience worldwide will help keep us safe with the international nations. tony, that was tony, cleveland, ohio, democrat. brad, good morning. i think the last caller is wrong. she is a criminal. she is in it for herself. she does not care about anyone but herself. she lies. host: we are listening to you. caller: she lies. people lookve -- if at the nuances throughout history, republicans have been for the civil rights for the minorities. host: ok. caller: democrats have always hoodwinked the minorities for saying that the republicans are

against them, that is not the case at all. host: who is your candidate? caller: donald trump. i talk to minority people. they want to vote for him. he talks plainly to everybody. he does not talk in circles. he speaks plainly. to vote republican, regardless if he wins the nomination or not. i would like to see him win. if he does not, i am voting regardless -- i am voting republican regardless. the: donald trump is leader, coming in third, marco rubio. the remaining candidates jockeying for the third ticket out of iowa. here is the florida senator making his case on saturday. [video clip] clinton or bernie sanders wins, the damage barack

obama has done to america becomes permanent. obamacare is here to stay. executive orders are here to stay. cuts to military, they continue. our standing in the world continues to erode. the second amendment, our rights, they will continue to a road. everything barack obama has done remains in place and worse. hillary clinton cannot be the president of the united states. she is not qualified to be commander-in-chief. she stored classified information on her private server because she believes she is above the law. she believes she is above the law. the information is so classified, they cannot release the e-mails. she cannot be the commander in chief of the united states. rubio in florida yesterday.

in iowa., it is caucus day today. voters will go to caucus around 7:00 p.m. central time. that is 8:00 p.m. here on the east coast. coverage gets underway. we will have coverage of two caucuses. voterso martin o'malley go if they do not get to the 15%? do they go with hillary clinton or bernie sanders? on the republican side, you will be able to watch it unfold. front page of the new york times has a story about the money. rubio and get behind ted cruz. and they are betting he is the party's best chance to win the

general election battle against hillary clinton. records show a super pac backing 14.3ubio raised million dollars, including 2.5 million dollars each from the hedge fund founders paul singer and ken griffin. frontou have this on the page of the "washington post." a charge that looks at the money. super pac's has been $41.5 million supporting and opposing current presidential candidates in iowa. they are technically independent and required to identify the money they spend in favor or against specific candidates. you can see the super pac money, with jeb bush leading the way at 14 million dollars, followed by marco rubio at $8.2 million, and ted cruz at $2.8 million. donald trump is down at the bottom.

he has told his supporters and donors that he does not take money. -- theional fundraisers rectangles show what was raised by each candidate nationally. clinton at $120 million. bernie sanders at $53 million. senator ted cruz leading with $44 million for republicans. at $44 million. marco rubio $37 million. bush and $36 million. donald trump at the bottom with $4 million. look at the money. there is also this in the "new york times" about iowa and senator ted cruz. we're going to talk to one iowa official about this. mr. cruz has employed more subversive strategies to get out the vote in iraq and has even raised eyebrows among state officials. -- to get out the vote in iowa

and has even raised eyebrows. anert in maryland, independent. who is your candidate? caller: good morning. veteran.etnam my country means a lot to me. opinion, butmy what i have concluded is american people do not care whether a president comes from a wealthy background or a poor background. would they care about mostly is integrity. i think there is an donald trump and bernie sanders, and i was just switching back and forth , between yourls channel and another channel watching ronald reagan -- it does not matter whether these are democrats or republicans.

they want somebody they trust what they say. influenced by not all caps of interests other than the american interests. whether they come from wealthy backgrounds or poor backgrounds, the presidents who understood is teddyther it roosevelt, franklin roosevelt, john kennedy, reagan from a poor background, the american people want somebody they trust. most of our politicians now in washington, people do not trust. it does not matter if they are black or white or white. they want somebody they will trust. bernie sanders and donald trump right now seem to be the two people that represent people like our past popular presidents that people trust. host: if one of them is the nominee, do you vote for that person? we lost him.

thomas in atlanta, a democrat. you are on the the air. caller: my candidate is going to be bernie sanders or it could be hillary clinton. because bernie sanders really understands what the people really want. he understands what is going on. and the republicans, they never say anything about what their plan is are what they want to do for the people. the only thing they does is talk about what obama didn't do and how there is a plan about obama this, obama that. but it is never about a plan about what they have for the people. donald trump -- i like donald trump, but he don't have a plan what he wanted to do. he is not a candidate to be a president. he is more like an entertainer. when you ask him a specific question about what he is going to do, he evades the question. he never has a plan. he won't make a good president. host: ok, "wall street journal"

with the headlight -- iowa gop fears a loss of influence. "i have become sort of a primary for the christian right portion of the party," said doug gross, a lawyer who held senior iowa campaign positions for bush and romney. nation ted cruz after giving the nation mike huckabee and rick santorum, party elders have to think, is iowa serving its role? the death of iowa pose a straw poll in 2015, an event that ed the field winnow as a test of organizational strength, does not help the state gop's case for maintaining its first state status. and this in the papers this morning -- the national section

of the epic what new york times," ethanol mandates of faces a growing resistance, even in iowa. returning tol be capitol hill this week. both the house and senate are back in session or their first week since washington was hit with that snowstorm. the "new york times" notes this -- been our -- and now powerful: powerful coalition is pushing congress to weaken a repealed ethanol mandate. the issue largely will go to rest for another four years. even here in iowa, ethanol may be losing its most powerful hold , some political consultants say. senator ted cruz has called for an end to subsidies for all forms of energy, as well as phasing out the renewable fuel mandate they created the ethanol

economy here. that got a stern review by the governor of iowa. he's 100%mp says behind the ethanol subsidy. let's go to another call. .aller: good morning still kind of deciding who i should vote for, but listening to some of the listeners, the democrat listeners, they are still trying to decide if they want to have this country run by who makes the laws or have it run by the constitution. and they are6, kind of the choice i am looking at -- rand paul and john kasich are kind of the choices i am looking at. trump, a republican democrat, once big government. i am not really sure, but i think rand paul has the constitution and the bill of rights.

and that is for the people, by the people. a lot of the listeners, they are not saying that. so i do not understand what .hey're listening to if they're listening to this channel, this channel gives a very good view of what the republican candidates are saying for the people. by covering their entire events in these early states? caller: correct. you show the entire in event. you show clips of the event. they are not saying they want to take away social security. they are trying to stop people from putting iou slips in the lock box. host: did you say who your candidate is? caller: i am looking at rand paul, john kasich. but i am not sure who, when i get into the booth, who i will

pull the lever for. paul islieve that rand trying to keep the constitution. he is trying to keep the bill of rights. he is trying to set precedent for that. i think that is where the country needs to go. host: many democrats calling in have said bernie sanders is your candidate for president. he is also in iowa. yesterday, and waterloo, listen to what he had to say. sanders: we had the courage to take on some very powerful special interests. their greed is destroying our economy. why don't we stand together and say to those people, you know, you cannot have it all? that is not what america is about. when we do that, there is nothing, nothing, nothing that we cannot accomplish. that is what this campaign is

about. ,n monday night, there will be as all of you know, the democratic caucuses. not only will the entire country be looking at iowa, actually, much of the world will be looking at iowa. it is not just to see who wins the caucus. what they will really be looking at is to see whether or not iowa is prepared to move this country away from establishment politics and establishment economics and move us in a very different direction. monday night could be a historic night for this country. we can make history. i urge you all to come out to caucus. i ask for your support. thank you all very much. host: for the democrats, it is the hunt for delegates, as the , sayington post" notes

the sender's campaign game mission -- game ms. "a des moines register month showedl last that sender's supporters are disproportionately concentrated in several counties with large college campuses. we'll see what portion of the vote he gets and who will get how many delegates. for senator sanders, it will be about millennial turnout, bianchi key for the "washington post." he also note that a poll found

that over the past two weeks, the percentage of light week democratic caucus goers viewing senator sanders favorably had dipped from 89% to 82% and while the percentage of this viewing and unfavorably had risen from 6% to 12%. the poll showed clinton and sanders and a statistical dead the caucuses,nto showing how even small shifts in how candidates are viewed could determine the night's winner. you can tune into c-span and c-span2 to watch it all happen. and two of the caucuses, a democratic caucus and a caucus, on those two channels. tune in to watch and see how this all takes place in the first of the nation caucuses that will get underway in iowa tonight. that is at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. go to david in new york, a republican. did we talk to you? let me go to jimmy and san antonio, independents. caller: yes, good morning, all.

that may make a point first and then tell you who i have voting for. callersou should give 30 seconds to make a point about your question. if they want to advocate for a candidate, let them do it for that 30 seconds, because they called you. but after that, end it. now, i will vote for senator sanders if he is nominated. side.s on the democrat if he is not nominated, i will sich, andgovernor ka that is the bottom line. he is asanders,

grandfather figure. he tells you the and garnished truths of what life is like. john kasich, he sticks to what he believes in. and both have integrity credibility. so that is where i stand on your issue today. host: ok, all right. next is connie in new jersey, a democrat. good morning to you. caller: good morning. i am a democrat. i normally would like sanders. hello? host: yes? caller: i like sanders, but he is already labeled as a socialist, so i do not think that is going to go. so i will vote hillary. far as republicans, i want to cruzd people that call, rubio, both of them are

decent its of cubans. nobody knows that cubans come ase to the southern border flooring the citizens with all the and if it's -- all the benefits. even legal,grants, have to wait five years to get into any program. cruz's father fought for castro. nobody, not the people who is , point, not the media out people who are so much about illegal immigration. to me, all the cubans come here and are in illegal. they escaped communism, so we have to over the border to the

chinese in this country, too. in newhat is a democrat jersey. we are taking a short break and then will continue the conversation. we're looking at the iowa caucuses tonight. lucey, talk to catherine an associate press reporter. later, we will talk with jim hightower, a progressive talk radio host and supporter of senator bernie sanders. first, c-span visited with a local business owner whose shop has been a popular stop on the campaign trail in iowa. take a look. [video clip] kathy jurgensen has been running the cutting the buddy for 35 years and is known as a go-to stylist for some of the presidential can taint -- campaigns. >> we have had several candidates when i always think of -- i was just ready to leave the salon one night and mitt romney ran in.

he had a little piece of hair that they said they had been trying to get it to lay down for 45 minutes. so i'd snipped it off. i did not think he would be confident to let me get the caesars out, but he was fine with it. such a confident man. mrs. bush was in when she was a first lady. i have seen sarah palin. i have seen the buchanans. we have had a lot of candidates in and out, and it has been so exciting to be here at the hotel. caucuses, with the the candidates are in and out. what about secret service details? do they ever get nervous about you being by the candidates with scissors? >> i have been cleared by secret service. that has sometimes been questions when they called to set up appointments. whoever sets it up asks me if i have been cleared, and i have. host: do you have a favorite

head of hair that you have cut over the years? >> probably not. probably the person i did must regularly years ago, because she is had friends here in town, was mrs. dole. quiteme to des moines often. i was always flattered that she would pick me out even though she was not staying at this hotel. host: anyway when doing a haircut to know whether somebody feels confident about their chances in the iowa caucuses? i don't think so they all seem pretty confident. this cycle, we have not seen a single candidate. i have seen a lot of news people in and out of the salon, and it is always great to talk to them. they're very friendly, and we are curious about their lives. no candidates this time. 'sst: is there a candidate whose hair you would love to get your hands on? >> i guess, i like mrs. clinton, so i would love to have her in the salon and be able to talk to her. of course, everybody would like

to get their hands on mr. trump, but that is a sort of his high line, so let him have it. what advice would you give the candidates? critiqued at all times. i guess the only advice is just to stick with the same hairstyle so people do not make a big deal out of it. i guess that is when people report on it, when they have made a change. host: is that for both men and women, that advice? >> yeah. host: the skyline of iowa this anding as islands wake up get ready to go caucus -- as iowans get ready to caucus. catherine lucey joins us. let's begin with this poll from the des moines register some of the bloomberg political poll.

donald trump is on top was 28%, followed by senator ted cruz at 23%, which slipped a little bit. senator marco rubio follows with 15%. dr. ben carson at 10%. withing it out, rand paul 5%. chris christie with 3%. the others with 2% or less. catherine lucey, what are your predictions for tonight on the republican side? guest: i think we have all learned not to make too many predictions for it obviously, donald trump has remained a leader for a very long time. looking into this pretty good, and ted cruz has lost some ground. i think the big questions we're waiting to see is the difference here between organization and momentum. donald trump has a lot of enthusiasm, a lot of excitement. there are a lot of people at his rallies who say they have never caucused before. ted cruz has invested heavily in a very strong traditional

organization to turn people out to the caucuses. so i think we will see which one has the edge given the different ways their coming into this. host: explain a little bit more about senator ted cruz's organization efforts on the ground. what has he put into this, and compare that was senator marco rubio, who is looking to make a good showing tonight, as well. the statethey done in of iowa that can make the difference for both of them? guest: ted cruz has invested a lot in this state. he has been coming here for years and has a huge network of county chairs. he has brought in volunteers that have been staying in these former college dorms. they call it camp cruz. he has volunteers from the state. so he is put a huge amount of effort into people on the ground. iowa has also been in

recently and has beefed up his organization, but i would say it is a little more recent. he, too, has but a considerable amount of resources here. i think it is a question of, you know, who has the -- obviously, coming into edge this, but people are looking to see if rubio can outperform his numbers. trump hasld supporters saying we have never caucused before. donald trump says he can get these people out to caucus for him. but nothing in this whole forecasts a groundswell of new people to just 40% of the likely gop electorate is made up of ours time caucus-goers am a which is on par with the 30 a percent of first-time caucus-goers reflected in 2012 entrance polling.

catherine lucey, what do you make of that? guest: well, yeah, i am never ,oing to question that polling probably the best in the business. she is picking up what she is picking up. it is true for donald trump that if the number of new people is lower than the poll predicts, that is better for him. he needs new people to come out, those nontraditional participants. the said, he is leading polls. so if he can achieve what she is predicting here, he is going to have a pretty good night tonight. host: let's talk about the democrats. hillary clinton leading within that 4% margin of error. hillary clinton at 45%. senator bernie sanders at 42%. martin o'malley with 3%.

who'd a silly clinton need to turn out tonight? -- who does hillary clinton need to turn out tonight, and he does bernie sanders need to turn out? guest: clinton has invest heavily in a massive organization here, and she is really looking to get up the traditional democratic caucus-goers. sanders is looking to expand the base. he is been working very hard to try to get college students out, get younger people, people who felt disenfranchised by the process. he has been looking to get new people in the they had been encouraging college students at universities in iowa to go home to their hometown because their caucus participation might be more valuable. might be more valuable participating in a smaller town than a college town. they're doing things like that to try and get new people out.

host: explain that a little bit more for people that are first-time viewers to this whole caucusing process. about deciding how many delegates to get on the democratic side? -- on theis democratic side, it is a very complicated process. the main thing is that it is not a primary. it is not a simple one person, one vote, going in very quickly to cast a vote. this is a county organizing meeting. they are held all over the state. and each county gets a certain number of delegates. essentially, the number of delegates is based on past democratic performance. so counties with strong performances will get more. and then population. the way it works is that the number of delegates is six. you can essentially maxed ou our

gains. for senator sanders, for example, in a city like iowa city, a college town, he could maximum number of delegates he can earn. so it does not matter at a certain point. in contrast, a couple of people, it could be helpful and a smaller area in getting a delegate. so the campaigns, and all the campaigns on the democratic side, are looking at this kind where youte map about need your people, where you can get a delegate, where you can get the max done. it is very difficult to explain. watch it viewers can all unfold tonight on c-span and c-span2. we will be covered a democratic

caucus and republican caucus. you will be able to see how many people show up. it has been a small percentage of the iowa have relation in the past. and you have the weather. what is the prediction for tonight? comingthere is a storm in, but i understand it is coming later in the evening. so i do not think it will help people coming out tonight. always part of the iowa caucuses, how many people are going to show up on a winter night for kind of a lengthy process. at this point in time, it does not appear a storm will prevent them from leaving their homes. host: it could get worst or the night, which means all of the , theren iowa right now are planning to go to new hampshire tomorrow morning, including the candidates. catherine lucey, is there any talk of the candidates getting out of dodge so they can get to new hampshire? or where will they'll be tonight? guest: some of the candidates

left already. on the republican side, some have not laughed. the summer leaving before this evening. some who think they might think they have a better shot in new hampshire will probably be there by tonight. i think a lot of the campaigns are leaving late tonight. to darlene, las vegas, independent. caller: good morning. i know you like to have articles in front of you so you can also reference them. imc you probably do not have this particular article. probably doy you not have this one. i was wondering why no one discussed this. if this came from a republican, the earth would have shaken. this is an article written by bernard sanders called "man and women" published in "the vermont

freeman." women talks how about being raped. masturbatesome and his typical fantasy, a woman on her knees, tied up, abused. a woman enjoys intercourse with her man as she fantasizes about being raped -- host: ok, i think we got the points. what are you trying to say here? caller: why is nobody talking about it? why isn't this the stone left thatned? this is something this man took the time to write this essay and a newspaper, but nobody has taken the time to even bring up or mention it. you want to talk liberal candidate, you found it. host: this is from npr. they say that mother jones dug up the 1972 essay bernie sanders wrote for the alternative

newspaper. it is a commentary on gender roles that also causes stir. following, not been read on data from a the controversy is about. what did bernie sanders right and say about rape? the essay is not long, only one page, and the bit about rape comes at the very beginning. sanders goes on to explain his idea about gender roles, talking about troubling dynamics in men's and women's sex lives. that is what npr says about this article. sounds like this came out when he announced his campaign. talk about the gender dynamic in iowa. hillary clinton has been courting the female vote. how is it looking? guest: yes, hillary clinton has been courting the female vote and talks more the cycle about the potential of being the first

female president then she did eight years ago. that i think there is a divide between younger and older women. a lot of younger women seem more interested in senator sanders. he has a lot of young people at his rallies. they both are talking a lot about issues that traditionally have been interests of women. pay family leave, pay equity. so some of those things that i think are important to women across the board. john in south carolina, democrat, an early stage. good morning to you. caller: good morning. i first want to say that the candidate i am going to vote for will have to be able to reach across the table and become bipartisan. there are a lot of factors. race relations in the united states is terrible right now in my opinion.

we're going to have to deal with it. we can march and say "we shall overcome," knowing full well when we go back home, we're going to have to deal with race. it just does not do it anymore. secondly, you know, donald trump , and i have seen a lot of people, when he has come to south carolina, and a lot of people say i am going and i want to see him, and they put weight behind the guy simply because he has an entertainment value. it troubles me, because they don't look deep. we are about to elect president of the united states. policyy has no foreign behind him. host: catherine lucey, what are iowans telling you that show up for these donald trump rallies? why are they supporting him in iowa? the theme that has emerged at the donald trump

rallies is that a lot of people are frustrated and angry. they are angry with the political process. they seem to like the fact that donald trump is not politically correct, that he does seem to say what comes into his mind, that he is less concerned about how it appears. there seems to be a lot of economic frustration that is consistent with these folks and a lot of people that feel disenfranchised. host: chris in kansas, independent. caller: hello. i don't really have a question. amean, this country is constitutional republic. as far as all the candidates are concerned, the only two i ever really hear talk about the constitution are ted cruz and rand paul. at this point, i am leaning towards ted cruz. i don't know. ok.: catherine lucey, who are ted

cruz's supporters in iowa? guest: ted cruz, who certainly describes himself as a constitutionalist, has very deep support among evangelical and christian conservatives in iowa. he has made a lot of effort to woo those folks, and they tend to be major participants in the caucus here in iowa. that is a really important group to build a coalition. he has also worked to try and appeal to republicans across the board, arguing that conservative republicans need to unite behind one candidate to be the most effective. with we are talking catherine lucey, political reporter in iowa for the associated press, taking your questions and comment on this primary race as iowa voting is going to be getting underway in about eight hours or so. she can take your questions and comments about how this is all working and how this first in

the nation state -- i want to get the phone numbers. republicans, 202-748-8001. democrats, 202-748-8000. .ndependents, 202-748-8002 and iowa voters, 202-748-8003. she let in new orleans, a democrat. in new -- sheila orleans, a democrat. caller: hello. my comment is that i have listened to bernie sanders since he started, and i never hear him really give a serious plan about things. he is always talking about going after wall street. het i did hear him say was was going to raise taxes on the middle class. someone asked him a question and he stated, yes, he was going to

have to raise the taxes on the middle class. i like hillary. hillary was in there with her husband. she helped a lot of people. she did a lot of things. up does not have to stand there -- a lot of first ladies did not do that, but she did. she helped a lot of minorities, as well as all people. and i just find that they are using these e-mails against her right now because they do not want her in office. they do not want a woman in office, with for one thing. and it is not just because she .ights against them she does not let them run over her. my question is, why is it that the media only looks at certain things? we are looking at donald trump. donald trump is a real joke. he has no plan. he calls people stupid. he calls people names, and

everybody is smiling and laughing. he is the 1%. host: i think we have got a question there for catherine lucey. the e-mail story playing out -- how is it playing out in iowa, and who are her supporters there? really think hillary clinton has strong support here in iowa, as evidenced by the poll you referenced. i have not heard that the e-mails are moving, at least the latest revelations are moving people along at this point. her support is strong. a push bynk this is opponents in some ways. they seem pretty comfortable with her. i do not think the e-mails are moving a lot of people off of hillary. , independent. caller: wanted to make a comment. i would not vote for any of the candidates voting right now. taxes,y they would cut

but their track records say they are in favor of raising taxes in one aspect or another, typically to promote, you know, whatever. i would not vote for donald trump either. file forch a guy who bankruptcy four times. i would not trust him with an economy period. what i would like to do is i would like to see gary johnson actually have a chance. i was wondering if there was any chance you could do a segment on him. candidate who, as government, cut taxes in his state. host: jesse from lebanon, tennessee, democrat. first, good morning. thank you for c-span. you do wonderful work. ims supporting senator sanders for multiple reasons. am supporting senator

sanders. "i"t, he is an "us," not situation for one of the principal failures of barack obama's presidency have been on the voters. the voters in 2008 did not show up for him in 2010. showed up in 2012 but do not show up in 2014. every step of the way, senator sanders lets us know that he cannot do it without us. as to the prior democrat caller who was talking about how senator sanders is going to raise taxes on the middle class as she is going to support hillary -- well, if she wants more private prisons and more african-americans in jail, yes, go ahead and support hillary clinton. if she wants more lies as to how the defense of marriage act came thet, go ahead and support former secretary of state. thank you. again, thank you for c-span. host: catherine lucey, tonight on the democratic side, where

will you be watching the results? tell our viewers where there is an indication of who will come out first in iowa on the democrat side. watchingam going to be an individual caucus in a small town. i will see the process up close and personal, which i think will be really interesting. for viewers, it is going to take a little more for the results to come in. 681 precincts in iowa, and they all have to have their meetings. the democratic process takes a little longer than the republican process, because they meet and divide into groups based on the candidate they prefer. if your candidate does not have a minimum level of support, they then have to redistribute to a different candidate. so that brings the martin o'malley factor into the race,

whether or not his supporters have enough people there or whether they have to go with another candidate. it will take a little bit of time before the results get reported out. host: patricia in naples, florida, a republican. caller: good morning. i just want you to know that i would vote for ted cruz in a heartbeat. the reason that i would vote for him over rubio is that ted has a tremendous resume all around, from private to public, where rubio was mainly in miami. he has not enough experience. why i would definitely choose ted cruz over donald trump, he does not denigrate people. he is truthful. leader, in my perspective. host: ok.

catherine lucey, talk about the tension between the rubio campaign and the crews campaign in iowa. guest: certainly that has become race, especially as it gets closer. in the last few weeks, rubio has had a little momentum coming into the final stretch. there has been a lot of negative advertising directed both ways. is interesting to see. ted cruz's still has strong support here. he has strong evangelical support. rubio, i think, is helping for a stronger than expected finish or a solid third-place finish, which will clear him into new hampshire and the next contest. int: what is it like to live iowa during the past couple of months? i mean, 60,000 tv ads have been aired in iowa. what is it like living there? -- rightmean, iowa

now, iowa is sort of the center of the political world. everyone is here. the candidates are here for you the media is here. even over the last few months, candidates have been crisscrossing the state. they have been all over, not just in des moines but in the small towns. when you think about ads, it is the candidates, the super pac's, tv, radio. it people interested in it, is great, especially on the republican side with so many candidates. or the activist who are excited about the race, they are able to see everything oh percent and have conversations with most of them -- to see every single person and have conversations with most of them. you can be deeply engaged in the process. of course, a lot of iowans do not participate in the caucuses and tried to tune some of it out. it would take a lot of effort to do so.

1500 candidate rallies have been held in iowa. in raleigh, north carolina, and independent. caller: yes, how are you doing this morning? i am voting for hillary. she said she was going to cut student debt. donald trump is a demagogue. ask a question about israel, the palestinian situation, and he had no answers. he had to walk away. so i am going to go with hillary. host: all right. he is going with hillary. catherine lucey, what are her plans for today leading up to the caucuses tonight? where will she and the other candidates be? guest: she is out and about in the state and will have a big

event tonight. clinton has put a lot into iowa. i think they are really hoping that their organization, all their efforts here are going to pay off with a kickoff win. she has had bill clinton here, chelsea clinton, and a variety of celebrities in the state recently. she has been working very hard. host: terry in illinois, democrat. good morning. henry in fallsto church, virginia, a republican. folks: hey, good morning, . first of all, i want to congratulate you guys. i love watching your show. you have such great questions. i wish they would let you guys moderate one of the debate spirit you guys are great. host: thank you. caller: i have a question for ms. lucey.

the one comment about donald trump, i think this is one of those places where the polling might be lagging the actual opinion. on the gop side, it is not as complicated as the democrat side. you simply go in, and i think you just fill out a valid spirit you write a name and then you go. guest: you are absolutely right. of the muchng out or station, i was stopped by a tv reporter to see who i was supporting it i kind of like donald trump, but i did not want to say that in front of the camera. there were people staring, and i know he antagonizes people. i think when people get in there and another had the privacy, they will vote for donald trump. a question i want to ask is this -- there is a lot of talk about bernie sanders bringing in the some voters, as well as people being excited on the republican side. the issue i have always liked is social security, but we can

never get to the point of privatizing it because it is divisive. from what she sees in the polling, does she think the younger people coming in that are constituting one of the voting pool, are they more inclined not to consider things like social security reforms? that is my question. thanks for being patient. , that is a good question here it you are right about the republican process. it is much more straightforward. the young people at the bernie rallies are not talking about privatizing social security. sanders is talking vigorously about expanding social security, and he gets huge response to that. i do not think the young people are interested in his candidacy are supportive of that idea. is watching in connecticut, a democrat. caller: i am a bernie sanders

supporter. question -- what provisions are made for people who have to work during the hours of the caucuses? thanks a lot. this is a big question about the caucuses, about how inclusive they are, how easy it is to participate. iowa democrats have made efforts this time to add what they call separate froms, traditional sites, to allow more people to participate. i know they are looking to do expanded participation for out-of-state military. but it is a challenge. primaryt like a regular where you can go at any point over the course of the day. it is a fixed time and location and a fixed amount of time. that can be a challenge.

a gets underway at 7:00 p.m. central time. host: what happens right at 7:00 p.m.? guest: they're targeting people on both sides of the aisle to get there earlier than 7:00. if you are not there by 7:00, you might not be of the get in. on the republican side, someone speaks on behalf of each candidate. you hear a little about the candidate, and then they cast a ballot. on the democrat side with a thek into these loops for candidates, and they figure out if each group has enough people in it. folks forhe number of each, they figure out the delegate count. , and mississippi, lily independent. caller: i appreciate you all for doing the work you do. we are estate here. i am 70 years old, and i am going to do what i always do

when i get in the booth. if i don't think anybody on the ballot is as capable as me of doing that job, i write my name in. candidate for president a few times in my life. host: what do you think right now? is there any candidate that can do the job? liar.: hillary is a she makes me ashamed to be a woman. everybody else is so radical. i mean, i am an old hippie. i want some of the to look me in the eye and tell me the truth. host: what about bernie sanders? caller: i can't get a read on him. because of that article he did a while back -- i am an activist for women. i had a t-shirt saying to castrate rapists. i do not think he is the

interests of women at heart. host: we have a call from new york, democrat. caller: i would like to ask the moderator and guest to explore these two questions. one, the clintons, it is basically a law firm. isn't it against the law for a third term, any president to seek a third term? it seems like this is a convoluted effort for the clintons to get back into the white house. it is such a huge society. there are so many other qualified people. we need a transition of power. they are resistant to that. the clintons have been involved with the cia, smuggling drugs to an arkansas airport. don't the supporters of the clintons realize what i paint is crime that was and how it was swept under the rug? it is a reality, not conspiracy. guest: what about hillary clinton running in iowa and bring in been cool -- bringing

up a bill clinton at the end? what is the strategy? guest: he is still very popular. i was at a bill clinton even recently. people still have a lot of respect and affection for him and think really highly of his presidency. but she has been very careful. she is running. he is not been out on the campaign trail all that much. they have been judicious about his time and him doing interviews and things like that. they have made very clear that this is her campaign. about the dynasty factor? she is leading in iowa heading into tonight's caucuses. it is a dead heat with bernie sanders. but jeb bush is polling very low in iowa. has there been a resistance to him because of his last name? hear that a lot from people about jeb bush. even when they say they like him, they are not crazy about

political dynasties. so i think that is one of the issues playing in there. perhaps the difference on both sides of the aisle is that the republicans have so many candidates that if you are not sure about a political dynasty, you have all these other options. so they really have not had to grapple with that. some democrats don't like it and some are comfortable with it. and look at the spending. super pac's have spent $41.5 million supporting candidates upon iowa. host: the super pac's are technically independent and are required to identify the money. look at the super pac's, candidates with no associated independent spending are not shown here, but jeb bush leading the super pac's with $14 million. marco rubio at 8.2 million dollars. ted cruz, $3.8 million.

we have a call from lubbock, texas, independent. caller: thank you for putting me on. this is really cool. as a young college student, sometimes we feel like our heardons are not really or important. i have a comment in question. we vote for people that say they are going to do stuff that we like. we expect immediate gratification once they get into the white house, because that is what we elected them to do. how do you think people will react when they're people of choice and office do not fulfill those needs or do not do it in a timely manner? host: catherine lucey, any thoughts? old story ofs the politics, right? campaigns and governing are very different. president obama has been dealing with that. it is hard to make all the people happy all the time. said, your campaign is

to lay out your vision and explain your proposals, and you have to try to do them when you get in. dealing with that disappointment is certainly part of the process. host: charles is next, a republican. caller: thanks for taking my call. i have very concerned. people that are running for office, they recommend abortion. that is a bad thing, because it is killing the person before they are born. ,he people recommending that how would they feel if someone killed them before they were born. host: ok, who is your candidate? caller: mr. donald trump. host: despite what he has said, and there is a video that has been shown lately about when he was on "meet the press," saying i am from manhattan and i have been pro-choice in the past?

are you there? caller: yes, he is the best all-around person to get this country back even better than it was. i have been listening to him and everybody else. he is for the military. he is for bringing the work that was shipped out overseas back to the united states. i am all for people coming to this country, but you need to do it legally and have records of who they are so we do not get isis and people murdering other innocent people. host: that is charles, a republican in florida. what are voters in iowa saying about donald trump's past points of view on social issues, like abortion? a new yorkid he has values. are you starting to see that show up in concern with voters,

particularly christian conservatives? guest: so far, i think a lot of the donald trump people are sticking with him. he has pulled a lot of people out. he is packing these huge rallies. the ball really do like his message and like what he says about immigration -- people really do like his message. they like what he says about job creation. so far, a lot of people are sticking by him. they certainly have not even operate it. host: what hasn't it been like to cover donald trump in iowa -- what has it been like to cover donald trump in iowa? what kind of access have you been given? guest: i am one of many people at the ap covering these candidates. i have seen trump a little bit. he certainly has much bigger events. the scale of what he's doing is very impressive. he can be in small towns and get thousands of people at these

rallies. it has been well have it documented that he does not always do a lot of time with the press. so it tends to be a big rally, big speech, but not necessarily a lot of a close and personal access. host: what about the retail politics, the q&a, the town hall type format that other candidates due to try to sway iowans and let the must direct questions to the candidates? has he done a lot of those? guest: some but not as much as others. recently, he has done some in the finals, days. he has tended to do these big events. his people would say, look, all these people want to come out and see him. he has not been damaged in the polls by not doing more of the

game.running his own and i think the big question tonight is, does it work? loretta is a democrat from cleveland, ohio. good morning. caller: good morning. i think that the media is playing a big trick on america by following donald trump around. he has answered no policy questions. nothing. time he is on, he is talking about his poll numbers and the polls and ted cruz is this and hillary clinton is that. i don't know what happened to the republican family values. wives accused him of rape. he has been endorsed by a white supreme is group and now with the caucuses starting, it does a

service to -- it does a service to america. host: we will pick up on that point. guest: certainly, iowa and new hampshire have an outside role in this process. is doing very well in national polls as well. before, other clients find him refreshing. that is true in lots of places, not just here. we will see how it unfolds after tonight. that was catherine lucey. when we come back, we talk to jim hightower, he will talk about bernie sanders in this campaign. and later, we will talk to j.

ann selzer about the final numbers from the bloomberg poll that she conducted. so we will get more of your calls coming up here. we have the iowa secretary of state on the phone to talk about today's caucuses. let's begin with voter registration. where does that stand right now? >> we are seeing a serious january, typically, that is a big adjustment. the republican and democrat numbers went up. andndance has shifted over we are registering more on the as opposed to the independents who have joined the ranks for the caucus tonight. host: what do you expect tonight? will you get new people registering to vote for tonight? caller: i think you will see

more independents joining the caucus rather than brandon people who have nader -- who have never registered before. people will be asked to register at the caucus themselves. those will be filed with our offices later but they will have to do it tonight. and: are you prepared for do you think that you will see first time caucus-goers tonight? guest: most certainly. cycle, an open election ith barack obama retiring -- is a very progressive campaign and bernie sanders and hillary hillarynton's -- and clinton's campaign are very tight. there is a serious lead advantage for donald trump but

there are a couple of players trying to respond. host: what is your role tonight? i am the state commissioner of elections. it functions as a neighborhood tech meeting, that is why it is called a caucus. i am at the voter registration site, making sure people are registered properly. and that if there are questions, we address it. we provide the voter registration list to both political parties so they have that. it after that, i am just like everybody else. i will be watching with interest. active through this cycle up until november. host: you put up a statement critical of ted cruz, tell us why? did you said and why feel the need to put out a statement? guest: i try not to get in the

middle of the caucus because it is party building processes. but their campaign sent out a mailer that made it look like it was coming from my office in the sense that it was my official document saying that the secretary of state provided this information. saying that these people were violating voting guidelines by not participating in elections at a sufficient enough level. they gave letter grades, most of f's.were d's and they utilize the voter registration forms which is legal but it was the way that they did it. it didn't come from my office and we do not give people letter arees and tell them, you doing well or failing at voting and they listed other neighbors

in the mailing. so basically you could see your neighbors participation levels and i thought that was that they could -- i thought that was something they could have done differently. itdidn't violate the law but was definitely against the spirit of what good campaigning is in iowa. there bel ramifications or an investigation as to whether or not they broke the law? i don't think there will be because i don't think there was a lot broken. i think it was more the spirit of it and my role -- i want to point out this was not an official document it did not come from my office. we do not grade people on their voter participation. after that, my personal comment was more along the lines that as an iowa resident, i didn't think it was in the spirit of what good campaigning is and i would hope that other campaigns won't do that and shouldn't do that.

if another campaign were to repeat the same process, i would pointed out to them too. host: how will be winners be announced tonight? guest: the parties are working use their cellto phones so all of the local neighborhood leaders will have an app on their phone so with the completion of the strong pole portion, they can forward the exact poll results from their cell phone to capitol square in downtown des moines iowa where the huge collection and medial be there will be there to cover it. they are putting it out online on the website. my office will be sharing that information as a courtesy but not a formality. the hill newspaper has the

headline that microsoft is in the hot seat on iowa. it is a change from 2012 when mitt romney was mistakenly declared the winner. is that why this new technology is being employed? guest: it is a part of it. but it is also the 21st century. we need to embrace it. this is a way to do this more effectively. when we do our formal selections aat i oversee, we have process that works with local counties. the telephone app but we do have an electronic process. i think it is a natural evolution. it is a great tool and it is a chance for us to utilize this. host: what will you be watching for tonight? looking to see how we people come out to our first-time participants. i want to see how many

independents we can pull off the bench to get them involved. because that will play a heavy role in the november election. my job is to encourage participation. their people to have voice heard. host: any predictions? see higherill trends, for sure. as a personal observation, i think bernie sanders campaign has put their foot on the ground, so hillary clinton has some work to do. third place is pretty tight right now by every poll that you have seen. will it be marco rubio? dr. ben carson? or ted cruz? pate is the iowa secretary of state, thank you for your time. back to our studio.

jim hightower is joining us. he is a progressive talk radio host and also a bernie sanders supporter. tell us why you are in his camp? on thei appreciate being show. i am a longtime bernie sanders supporter because he is an authentic voice to work for the people of this country. he doesn't let people tell him about which issues to take on because he has spent his entire political career as an advocate, not only for working citizens and farmers and consumers and environmentalists that also being willing to take on the powers who are running over people in this country. i'm talking about the bankers and the big shots. .bsr'svestors and the

they are all top dogs and the rest of us are fire hydrants. so the reason his campaign is working well is because people see someone who says not only am i for you but i am willing to stand up to people. today to are in iowa campaign for senator bernie sanders. what is the plan for today? guest: mostly to stay out of the andof the organizers here the young people in particular who are the volunteers who have been out there to generate turnout in the caucuses. bernie sanders is straightforward about this. he says we will win if there is an increase in turnout in the caucus. the signs are quite positive that this is going to happen. there was a big rally last night that i attended. and bernie sanders came as well. it was at a local high school. there were maybe 3000 people.

handsere was a show of for people who had never been to a caucus and the majority race her hands. people who are not being calculated and tallied in the polls. they are new voters. but will they turn out? a bernie sanders campaign is doing everything to make sure that they do, including teaching them how. ask, why not hillary clinton for you? guest: again, what's positive heut bernie sanders is that that the middle class is being knocked down in this country. plutocraticdown by forces. andarily wall street interest groups.

so he has gone to the people straightforward with that message. yes, there is inequality but it doesn't just happen. it happens because the powers that be make deliberate decisions in the corporate board rooms and in the congressional to -- the economists have a technical term -- ceiling -- stealing. our incomes, our medicare and the future for our children. americans are steamed about that balanced byger is saying, maybe we could do something about this. and getd people show up behind this campaign, here is a chance for us to change the dynamic. to put people first in america. and that is happening, not only as we have seen in the turnouts but also in fund-raising.

this was considered bernie sanders will or ability, he would have no ability to get corporate money because he was attacking corporations. and democrats have said historically, we can't unilaterally disarm, we have to take some billionaire money and bernie sanders said he didn't want that money. and lo and behold he has been a fabulous fundraiser because the people themselves have chipped in their money. this last month of january, he raised $20 million and with average contributions of around $23. you can't buy a president for $23 but you might buy a president who won't be bought and people respond well to that. host: we are talking to jim tigar -- jim hightower. republicansed to and democrats supporters.

yesterday we had a hillary clinton supporter. calls, did youo vote for bill clinton in the two elections that he ran? guest: yes, i did. not in the primaries in 1992, but in fact i was a superdelegate. been the agriculture commissioner in texas so i was a superdelegate going to a new york convention. and again, i have nothing negative about the clintons or martin o'malley. they are all strong people. they are articulate folks. the appeal of bernie himself, the added dimension that he is and just saying i'm for you, but he is willing to prove it.

he is willing to fight to people who are running over the regular people. and bernie is just likable. even when you just say the word it puts a smile on your face. likable, and people are absorbing that. they know what he is saying in their own life experiences. the political spectrum is not right to left. the real spectrum is top to bottom. that is experience and where you live and your zip code. and most folks know they are not in shouting distance of the folks at the top. whether they are democrat, liberal or conservative. so bernie sanders has a grassroots effort rallying people who have never been to a meeting.

people who are republicans, even. sean, he isl go to from washington. i remember being shocked and horrified when tom harkin didn't win the nomination in 1992. and the same thing when dennis in 2008. didn't win can you talk about the propaganda accomplishment of making business seem like it is on the side of the little guy? it seems like we need a pro labor candidate. bernie sandersat isn't walking away with this nomination after environmental catastrophe after economic --tdown after foreign's after foreign policy debacles. how is it that goldman sachs and wall street are able to convince this whole nation that business is on our side?

zones of this modern era are the small business people. could you talk about that please? guest: yes. the corporate powers have spent the last 30 years putting across this notion that shareholders are the supreme force in our economy. and corporations have the ultimate responsibility to make sure they make a profit, even if that means running over workers. exploitingt means the environment or abusing consumers or defraud in investors. hardly a day goes by without a new story. ordinarinesss the that is most stunning today. think bernie sanders is

running away with this nomination. not in terms of the vote, it is a think most people say that they are intrigued by what he is saying but, can he win? and they are sitting back and watching this. running well here in iowa tonight is going to unleash a lot of the people. and bernie sanders has made great strides showing that ordinary people will chip in five dollars or $10 to sustain a campaign that can go the distance. i just came yesterday where bernie sanders has a strong part of in the rural the country. i visited the folks out there and there was wonderful enthusiasm and turnout. that is what will be the caucuses. it is very much on the radar. where i come from, there is a

strong bernie campaign. he is not afraid to go to the red states because he is reaching out to people who don't have a partisan position particularly. they are looking for who will stand up. i think there is more sentiment out there. even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and ian kicked. folks know they're being kicked. and now their understanding who did the kicking. host: tomorrow in minneapolis. good morning. caller: good morning. whenhing i want to say is, bernie sanders is a people person, it implies that hillary clinton is not. no other candidate since the primary has gotten 19 million votes like she has. a rigorous primary

activist. i think it makes our candidate go on to be strong. but when you are trying to send you also have to elect a president. let's not hope things get ugly. bernieroud democrat and sanders does represent some of the best things about democrats. let's be realistic. he doesn't offer specifics. people don't realize that he will have to raise taxes on not just the rich, some of the middle class. it's not realistic. hillary clinton has continued to be a champion for the little person. and while we talk about favorite candidate, we can't leave out the truth of the matter that she has made her life work. host: ok.

guest: i'm going to marking down as undecided on bernie sanders. i appreciate that very much. as i said, i have nothing negative to say about hillary clinton or mr. o'malley. to me is just the positives of bernie sanders. the thing i would draw from that is that with bernie sanders, we are naming the corporate powers overre running roughshod the working day folks. he will take them on. he will take on the contamination is of our environment. they are running rope shot over the farmers in this country. that is a positive and a plus. bernie sanders has an edge there. again, no objection at all and i agree with you that when this primary season is over. that the democrats can unite and

i think they will. in the ways know that bernie sanders has shifted the debate to more of a progressive position than otherwise would have happened. it has been a populist position. so this does strengthen our party because it makes people who are not partisan democrats say, well. they are now. to danaw do you respond milbank's piece in the washington post recently, his column -- democrats would be insane to nominate bernie sanders. in this, he argues that republicans will have the dictionary on their side. they will portray senator sanders as one who wants the government to own and control major industries and a means of production. they will say he wants to take away private property. it wouldn't be fair but it would be easy.

socialists don't win national elections in the united states. bernie sanders is a socialist in the same sense that franklin and eleanor roosevelt worked socialists. the same way that johnson with the war on positive -- war on poverty was a socialist. the people themselves are very involved in the economic decisions as well as the political decisions of our country. and people know that they have been shut out by the corporate powers. they have outlawed unions in this country. bernie sanders is a guy who has walked a picket line. he has been there with the unions. a member of congress. he has stood up in the senate and now, he is the guy who is out there with the ordinary .olks of the country

that is why people are responding. so to sit there in the confines of washington, d.c. and live in -- it isle of chatter contrived wisdom of corporate interests. is not bernie sanders first record. to the u.s.ed congress as a democratic socialist and then to congress and the senate as a democratic socialist. he has faced this before and of course corporate interests are going to say that. having aeople are different view these days. they are not going to buy slogans. they're going to look at what is actually being said.

medicare for all -- health care is a right in this country. and bernie sanders is putting that out there. if you are too big to fail, you are too big. those casinos are controlling that money. money is like manure. it doesn't work until you spread it around. there is a very specific proposal that is being taken on by this. elizabeth is a republican and washington, d.c., you are on the air. yes, i was wondering why martin o'malley hasn't taken off as well as he should?

people thought he should. do the candidates meet and talk with each other and hang out with each other? also, i have noticed that a candidates have been talking about bernie sanders and hillary clinton and of course marco rubio but no one has been speaking about the other republicans such as chris christie or carly fiorina. i don't even know if she is still in. i don't know if that has any connection with martin o'malley? think governor o'malley -- he was not a known figure to the national political

world. he has done himself very well. he has put forward a strong and democratic personality that is very winnable. but with hillary clinton and bernie sanders -- there is just not much room there for him to maneuver and distinguish himself as different enough that people should go with him rather than the other two. i think he has a great personality and strength and a positive approach to this election and it will do him well in the long term. so sometimes you don't make it in your first term. i read for office in texas and i lost and then turn around and agriculture position. it is the early bird who gets

the worm but the second mouse gets the cheese. is, making a race and not winning is not the end of your political existence. i think martin o'malley has established himself as an important political figure in our country and he will have a future with that. point about the country and the media generally -- they look at the front runners. and they are often wrong. camebernie sanders first here to iowa, they said he wouldn't grow at all. said he couldn't make it and sure enough, he gained strength and then they said he couldn't raise money. and then he did and still, they say he couldn't win iowa. and now it looks like it is an

even racier today. so maybe he can win iowa. he will certainly continue to be on that. the republicans are the last to know. the pundits mostly talk to each other. our viewers will be able they don't have to listen to pundits, they can watch voters in iowa participating in the caucuses. they can tune into c-span and c-span2 and watch all of it unfolding. on the democratic side you have the horse training and people trying to get martin o'malley supporters to go to bernie sanders or hillary clinton. it'll be interesting and unfolding. let's go to eric in kansas. he is an independent. good morning. caller: hello, i am happy to get

through. i am from kansas and i was a democrat and now i am independent. which means nothing in kansas. count very much. but i am all in for bernie sanders. i sent his money for his senatorial campaign and vermont and now i am contributing to his presidential campaign. i would like jim hightower to talk about ideas and optimism. that is what we are lacking. to be optimistic about the future and i see bernie sanders having ideas that others say are not realistic but i think they are. can you comment on that? guest: i appreciate you raising that point about optimism and idealism. again, a lot of political voices and corporate interests don't want us thinking that back to

the 1776 and subsequent rebellions of america -- the taking on of the central issue. it isn't this issue or that issue but overall. too few people control too much of the money and are using that control to get more money and more power. people are angry but anger isn't enough. you have to have a sense that it can change. and bernie sanders has done an awfully good job of asking, why can't we have health care for everyone? why can't we deal with wall street? we can. why can't we have a high-speed train system in america? we could. spain has it, japan has it, mexican has it. what is wrong with us. we have too many politicians on the republican side are can't

do. "can't do." but we can. power ins the largest the world and it is a matter of where the money goes. and bernie sanders says, let's put it in the people's interests. and that idealism is what has driven america and american growth. from the very founding of this , we have to have a small person in power. bernie sanders is in the roosevelt.f when roosevelt was accused of

trading his class, he said, i welcome their hatred. we need that attitude more. bernie sanders is in the whosteps of lyndon johnson made incredibly bold civil rights legislation at the time. people had already created the demand. he was responding to it. when bernie sanders is doing well today. he is just responding to the people. he will call for this. carry it campaign forward. host: let's hear from kevin, a democrat in albuquerque. caller: i love barack obama and i love bernie sanders. and i love jim hightower also. let's look at some history. guest: i promise not to run.

1991, bernie sanders voted against the repeal of glass -- that led to the financial crisis. back in 2002, bernie sanders voted against george bush's invasion of iraq. 2011, he advised against the overthrow that led to chaos in libya and the rise of isil. berniee importantly, sanders knows the number of americans living below the poverty line since 1974 has doubled. so he is talking about the poor and the poor need help. in fact, bernie sanders will help capitalism if he is elected spread his ideas will that the around so

people can buy the products that the corporations can make. obviously this caller agrees with what you have to say. there are those who say his proposals are not realistic. and they write on the washington -- heditorial board that would be raising taxes for health care expansion and his programs. his advisers claimed that more government spending will result in higher growth to improve our fiscal situation. this resembles republican arguments that tax cuts will choose the economy of pay for themselves. not just about tax policy although bernie sanders is on the right side of the tax policy. a are supposed to be democratic republic in which we galatea areas of rules.

in fact, we have all of working with the taxes. the rich save their taxes. they run off around the world and they have tax dodges like the hedge fund operators have in which they are tax only at 15%. for hedge fund operators, the richest ones saved $10 billion in personal pay. 250,000 -- while 150,000 kindergarten teachers paid. that is the disparity that is real. and what bernie sanders is talking about is generating an economy i rarely from small business folks and farmers being able to make a fair income again and working people being able to get fair wages again. this has been true throughout history. there is nothing fanciful about

it. post which inton the last 20 years hasn't had any therest in the work of people of this country -- they have been a tool of the corporate interest, editorially. so it is no surprise that they are trying to trash bernie's ideas as being unrealistic. say, the system is broken. the political system and the economic system. ills require big remedies. thing thatame happened with franklin roosevelt and the new deal. people said it would bankrupt america but he stayed american capitalism and it saved america. capitalism is small business. it is independent, local banks. it is local farmers being able

to help the local economy flourish. because they're producing something of value and getting value back for that. and then they invest that in the community. money that people spend say is local. that is the idea behind his educated economics. and it is from thomas jefferson forward. the idea that has worked. grassroots economics is what works. not trickle down. we went from ronald reagan's trickle-down economics to now with the koch brothers. and people do see this. they know what's going on. so the washington post can write all they want. but the people are already on to inequality. they are looking for real change. hightower announced

that he raised $20 million in january. hillary clinton has raised so to bernie $20 million sanders $53 million. on the republican side, -- made a $2 million donation backing chris christie. and -- gave $2.5 million backing worker rubio. so there is a lot in the papers about the super pac's and the wealthy donating to the campaigns. carolina, a in republican. caller: good morning. looking at the screen and i'm sorry. i have forgotten the man's name. host: jim hightower. a progressive radio host.

caller: all right. mr. hightower, i'm wondering what your confession was before you -- wondering what your profession was before you got into agriculture? guest: i was a writer, basically. i've written a number of books and i also now do a monthly newsletter called the hightower lowdown that talks about these kinds of populist issues. we have about hundred thousand subscribers around the country for that. daily radioo a commentary show. that is 180 stations around the country area so basically i make my living by running my mouth. and it sort of works. i am a unabashed political activists.

were you ever an attorney? confess. ma'am, i must host: why do you ask? caller: he talks really good. and a lot of attorneys do that. they are on top of their game. and he seems to be very educated. it is with respect. hightower, as he said, he supports bernie sanders in this primary cycle. he is in iowa today. to alexander next in dallas, texas. an independent. caller: i am part of the grassroots movement for bernie sanders. meeting before the dallas office opened, they asked how he people had ever been to a

campaign meeting and over half the people raised their hands. have the people raised their hands when over -- when asked if they had donated before. my question is, is this momentum of independence and first-time voters and people who have lost time in the system, do you think that if hillary clinton were to get the nomination, what would happen? what would that do to the democratic party? would it moved to hillary or what it reaffirm the frustration that a large number of supporters are feeling? mean, it is optimism that brings people into a campaign like this. and you are not alone. i think imager and here supporters have never been to a democratic already meeting. so this is not a partisan effort.

although it is within the democratic primary system. but bringing in republicans -- again, yesterday we had a in theses turnout rural areas and the maturity or republican or independent voters who had not paid that much attention or who had been involved with the political system. they are hearing bernie sanders thathere's a possibility maybe they do count. maybe they can make a difference. so you have to make the effort. and yes, if bernie sanders loses, there will be people disappointed. there will be some people who say see. but right now it is working because the ideas are getting out there. and that is where these crowds are coming from. that is where the money is coming from.

so sometimes, as a fellow in texas told me a few days ago, he said my optimism keeps slapping down my pessimism. and that is the political attitude right now. you have to be willing to take a risk in politics. that is what democracy is. you go out there and do your best and see if you can't rally other people. i tell you, even if bernie sanders were to lose this election, this movement will continue and it will not go away. is one of the most progressive presidential efforts in the past and this movement will continue to move. if he is president, he wants the movement to come into the white house and into washington editor congress to be the force that changes the attitude there were the idea that the people can be ignored. people can't be ignored.

he wants to bring the outside inside. and he also wants this movement to help elect new members of congress, ordinary folks again. republicans, democrats, libertarians -- bring a whole new generation and kind of people in. ordinary, working people. that is what our system was supposed to have but instead, we have congress who are millionaires. the bernie sanders has never made money. in the u.s. house of representatives and in the senate, he has the lowest income and wealth standard of any senator in washington, d.c.. because he has never used the office to make money for himself.

he has a very low income. herpenter --a is a working man himself and he never lost that perspective. that is why he has this authenticity and credibility. he doesn't need handlers and consultants and bolsters to tell him what issues to take on and how to position those issues. it comes from within. he uses his whole life experience. that is why people are getting involved in this campaign and i think they will be clean used with -- i think people will be pleased with whatever the outcome. it is this movement will continue to grow. he talks a lot about these issues, you can go to jim

hightower.com or follow him on twitter. thank you for your time this morning. guest: my joy. thank you very much. host: we will continue after this break to talk about caucus day on february 1, 2016. all eyes are on iowa as we vote in the firstte process. we will talk next to j. ann selzer. and we will take into the numbers a little bit more. but first, iowa caucuses have a series that plays out across the state of iowa. a new film there premiered this weekend. take a look. joined by the writer and director of this movie. and -- is an actress. what is the story you are telling? this is a fictional run for

the presidency. and -- shecharacter runs for congress and wins and this is her coming to iowa and running for the presidency and she hires this person to run the iowa campaign. >> and who is your character? kelly brown, her father is a state representative and she has grown up around des moines and follows politics or whole life. and that was his character approaches her and says she wants her to run her iowa campaign. and she says absolutely. >> and you have come to know iowa yourself. how did you help prepare for a fictional role as a campaign manager? watch prince show every time it aired. it was on youtube and i watched it.

you can hand me the $50 later. i also read game change and watch the documentary caucus on netflix. it was eye-opening and interesting. i didn't really know about the iowa caucus. >> islands live this. some people were concerned that i would be making fun of this but that is not the case. very happy and entertaining outlook on what the caucus process is. i am a big fan of the caucus process. i have a huge supporter. >> who are the real politicians that appear alongside the film? >> the former senator tom harkin appears in the film. we are cohosting the first

public showing of the film. the former governor of pennsylvania is in the film and then we have other little cameos from my tv show. so during the opening credits we see hillary clinton and ted cruz and bernie sanders. >> and the president. >> barack obama has a couple of lines talking about the caucuses. winning the caucus for him was a big deal. a bit of a political pedigree yourself? i great grandfather the governor of puerto rico under fdr and he was also fdr's finance manager. >> what is the plan for this film? >> we definitely wanted to show it to iowa before the caucus. we will show it here and do screenings in d.c. and delay. it will be up for awards considerations next fall.

so this is really just the beginning. it took a year to make the film. and this year we will distribute it. >> and the name of the film is courting des moines. for there to eight screenings and the theatrical goes to be finished but look for it next fall. it will be coming to cities earlier. host: and we are back this morning, focusing on the iowa caucuses as the hawkeye state gets repaired to vote. joining us from iowa this j. ann selzer who did the last polling for the des moines register with bloomberg politics. we have been following the numbers. donald trump with 28% of the ted cruz atd by 23%.

and benbio gets 15% carson gets 10% and then you have it rounded out with 5% for rand paul, 3% for this christie and 2% or less for all others. let's talk about the front-runners. do these numbers show a change? if so, why? guest: one of the things that is common when we do the final poll is that we see some candidates surging like we did with rick santorum in 2012 and we see some candidates collapsing as we did with rand paul in that same year. we really have day to day trends with candidates who are on their way up or on their way down. we did see marco rubio's numbers slip a little bit. is that the case? guest: a little bit but not enough that we said he should

pull out and call it a collapse. what marco rubio has going for -- we asked your first and second choice candidates. he gets the most second choice can -- choice of both of anybody there. so there are rubio forces going after that. -- come join with us and we would like you to vote with us. he could recover from a little bit of a slip. host: dam of trump will be new caucus-goers showing up tonight who will vote for him. if you are on the voter registration list -- and iowa has the highest percentage of registered voters of any state

-- then you are a part of our sample. we ask if you will definitely vote for probably vote and it doesn't matter if you are the first caucus. i think we ask if you are the first -- if it is your first caucus. had people who said it would be their first caucus. host: so what does that mean? 40% say this is the first time meaning that there will be a lot of new faces showing up tonight? guest: it is a little bit on the high side of what we normally see. polls in 2004al said it would be their first time. evangelical voters show up tonight in the same numbers they did in 2012 when rick santorum was declared the

winner? guest: right. population were a pay special attention to. that is because the poll is lower than what shows up on caucus night. meaning they are more likely to do what they say they're going to do. show up in higher than average numbers. test to seescenario what happens on caucus night. what does it do to the horse race? and it is obviously a closer race because there is a strong constituency for ted cruz. the would have to overcome size that they have been in previous caucuses in order to capital ted cruz up to the first place position. about poor trading

that tonight at the caucus? what does that mean for the republicans tonight? what does that mean for the poll numbers we are seeing coming from the des moines register and with bloomberg politics? what happens tonight that those poll numbers might not be reflected in the caucus numbers? guest: you have to understand. what the polls do is measure the intent of the people walking in the door. we can't possibly figure of what happens inside the room. on the republican side, it is a straightforward meeting. they have party business, they have a chance for representative to talk to the audience before they take a vote and then there is a secret ballot vote.

but the thing that happens is that people are working the room as people file in to get organized for the meeting. you have to be in line by 7:00. so it'll probably meet and start at 7:15. they could offer an alternative to the canada. on the democratic side, after the party business, they go to soferent parts of the room the hillary people will stand in one part of the room and the bernie sanders people will go to another corner and they counter the people and figure out which candidates have at least 15% of the support in the room in order to be viable. be eligible you have to have 15%.

so they say if you are not viable you cut to leave or go to another group. so there is a lot. there is running around and talking to people about things and then you stand in your corner and have the final count. is designed for people to change their minds. host: let's talk about democratic numbers. hillary clinton with a 3% lead over senator bernie sanders and martin o'malley only has 3% of the vote. what is the trend here? guest: hillary clinton has done trajectorya but her since she started polling -- she was pulling about 50% nearly

60%. bernie sanders started in the teens and every successive pole a have had, he has gotten bigger and bigger share of people saying they would caucus for him. they are stepping forward that he is now within three percentage points of a woman presumed to be the nominee for many, many months. there is obviously momentum going on in the sanders campaign. host: what is the favorable -unfavorable for hillary clinton and bernie sanders and does that matter heading into tonight's voting? guest: their favorables are about evening. . one of the striking things is there is mutual admiration going on. because the favorables are so high into the 80's, they feel favorable toward both hillary clinton and bernie sanders. you do not have that kind of

animosity where i only love my person and hate the other person. there is a sense of enthusiasm really for each candidate if they were to become the nominee. host: what about martin o'malley supporters? who is their second choice? them: there are so few of that we did not even report it out. is he isn say to you 3% and has been stuck at 3%. in paul in terms, it's like 15 weighted bodies. we say, where do those bodies go? it's only 15 people so that's multiple percentage points. it looks like a bigger divide than it actually is. we conclude that there is no clear advantage at this stage for either hillary clinton or for bernie sanders. if he gives an instruction to his supporters, requesting that they are not viable to go one way or the other, that changes the equation altogether.

host: how so? guest: well, he is 3%. bernie sanders is trailing by three percentage points. of thery, if you got all o'malley people, that can make up the difference. this is caucus by caucus by caucus. there is no guarantee that in every caucus room, the o'malley people account for 3%. the math has yet to be done for the people uncommitted or undecided. three percentage points -- not a lot of distance between those candidates. host: before we get to calls, the undecided. many people undecided in iowa before tonight? guest: there are a lot of people with maybe two or three candidates in mind on the republican side. in 2008, it was a bigger democratic feeild. i downloaded all of their

spreadsheets of issues most important to me and i narrowed it down to four and that was on caucus day. is designed for people to make up their minds very late. there is no real advantage to lock into a candidate early on. you might want to keep an open mind that you're going to walk into the room and an influential neighbor is going to make a case to you. they could sway you to vote a different way. that's the way the system is. on the republican side, we have about 40% who say they either do or have a first candidate the candidates they are supporting, they are not so strong that they cannot be persuaded. it is lower on the democratic side. 80% of hillary clinton supporters say they will not be moved. it is 69% for bernie sanders. on the republican side, it is 71% for donald trump. they are locked into him. 61% for ted cruz. everyone else below 50% in terms

of people saying they are locked in and cannot be moved. for donald trump, i think the bening is that people can locked into you, but if they are not in the room, that won't really matter. turnout is everything. host: let's get to calls. john in tampa florida, you're up first. caller: i've have a question in generally with pollsters. ask thenterview or people you're questioning how informed they are about the given candidates? for instance, hillary clinton has a super pac of wealthy wall street people. sanders does not. hillary voted in favor of the iraq war while sanders voted against it could hillary's . hillary's husband is basically responsible for the permanent low-wage economy because he voted for the repeal of glass-steagall and nafta and giving china the most favored trading nation status. host: we will have ann selzer

answer your first question. guest: our final paul gets into less death because our turnaround -- final poll gets depth because our turnaround is so quick to we want to know if things are coulding candidates hillary clinton made a comment about her e-mails and that the only time she heard about them was from the press. on the campaign trail, people don't care. we turned that into a poll question to find out if you do care. it was a huge number that said no, in fact, they don't. we are looking for ways of understanding what are the potential problems that candidates are going to face down the road and what are the potential advantages that they hold that makes people want to stick with them. host: was go to jack next in owa.t pleasant, i are you going to caucus tonight and who will you be caucusing for? caller: no, i'm not.

host: why not? caller: because i have not decided yet. host: why not go and hear the arguments? caller: i hear enough arguments on the tv with news people. is -- well, i've got a comment to make. first comment is that when things are broken and stuff like if your automobile was broken and you want to take it to a but your a politician, would take it to a certified mechanic. if you have an operation the you need, you do not ask for a plumber or an electrician. i do not understand why we've got people without trials -- in other words, like trump. if he wants to be a politician, let him start as a senator or a congressman or even a governor. we have a ceo and a surgeon and a surgeon in there who has no experience in politics.

host: we will take your point. does that show up in the p olling? guest: we have asked in the past with the way government works. what we take up clearly is that people feel like the bigger risk is to elect the same kind of person that they have elected in the past -- the congressman, the senator, the governor. as they have done that in the past, wishing and thinking and hoping for change, things have not really changed. they were willing and a poll question to say that the greater risk is to keep electing the same kind of person expecting change. the smaller risk is to put somebody without experience and because at least they will change the system, they will shake things up, and the mood of this country right now is they want things shaken up. host: how many iowans will t?tually go to caucus tonigh

guest: i am not a turnout projectionist. polls require a bit more precision. i think they're looking upwards from the high watermark on the republicans may be around 150,000. democrats are harder to tell because their high watermark was 250,000. they are expecting fewer than that. host: that is what percentage of the population? guest: a small percentage of the population. caucuses are a low incident event. for a pollster, you hang up on a lot of people who would otherwise be willing to cooperate with you if they do not meet our criteria for what houses are a likely caucus-goers tha. that means they will definitely caucus or might caucus. if you're definitely likely, that is not strong enough to count as a caucus-goers.

we are hanging up for eight people for every two people we think will caucus. host: we are a few hours away from iowa caucuses getting underway. we will have coverage on c-span and c-span2 of the caucuses. you will get to see how they actually work inside the room with the voters of iowa. we are taking your questions and comments as we get prepared for the voting to begin. out,a final poll numbers ann selzer is our guest. republicans can dial in at (202) 748-8000. .emocrats at (202) 748-8001 independence can dial (202) 748-8002. let me go take kitty in tennessee. you are on the air. first off, i want to

give a shout out to all of the caucus volunteers and the caucus-goers. we hope tonight they are for bernie sanders. i want to ask ann selzer to repeat or to give the time that theredemocrats should be at the caucus. i believe they close the doors that if you are not inside by 7:00. is that correct? guest: you have to be in line by 7:00. this is a party meeting. they will have members of the party watching their watches very carefully. as soon as 7:00 hits, if you're not in line, you will be turned away. host: are you still there? do you have a follow-up? caller: no, i had not heard that you had to be in line. i thought you had to be inside. i just wanted to make sure that all of those bernie sanders

caucusers get out tonight and would be there in time to not miss it. host: we will go to john. ahead, ann. guest: it is a definite time commitment at a definite time. the reason that you do not have to be inside the doors is because of the line is snaked out and they are unable to get you signed in fast enough, they do not want to disqualify people because the line was long. as long as you are in line by 7:00, and this is on the republican side as well as the democratic side, they will take the additional time to get you processed and into the meeting. host: what about the youth vote? bernie sanders popular on college campuses in iowa. why is that? talk about this number and how many of them are actually caucus-goers? aret: in our sample, they stronger and we often see sometimes.

they are definitely aligned with bernie sanders. he has a very big margin with people who are under the age of 35. the tricky part with college campuses is that's a set geography. delegates are allocated on a basis of geography. if he has a strong showing in ,ohnson county, let's just say where the university of iowa is, it is the highest concentration of college students could their . there are only some of the delegates out of johnson county. he may look bigger in a etatewide poll because mor of his supporters are getting in the polls then turn into delegates. that's what's on on the democratic side. they will not report how many people showed up for bernie sanders or hillary clinton. it is entirely possible that bernie sanders might have more people physically in caucus rooms in his corner, but hillary clinton could emerge with more

delegates. it's exactly what happened in nevada in 2008. hillary clinton had more people showing up in nevada to caucus for her. barack obama had more delegates. the smart campaign knows that the way you win is by delegates. there is some movement of to have bernie sanders supporters sort of go home and caucus for bernie so they can spread that concentrated support around the state. we will see what happens tonight. host: we will go to nebraska next. john, a republican. caller: just a comment. historically, my wife and i have been independent. this year, we have already switched to a republican. we can vote for anybody but donald trump. ourld trump get the nod, vote will go for bernie sanders. thank you for taking my call. host: any thoughts on that? guest: it is very interesting.

anti-trumprt of an movement. he has low favorables, less than the majority of people saying they feel favorable toward him. he has a higher unfavorable number than that. at 20th percentile though, he still has a solid lead. though, he still has a solid lead could the field is so big that you have chris christie at 3%, rick santorum at 2%, john kasich at 2%. you have a whole bunch of candidates that all by themselves do not matter much in terms of having a substantial but addedsupporters, together, there is a potential anti-trump bloc, except they are spread out across candidates . at 28%, trump is the front runner because there are all these other candidates in the mix. it is one of the things i look on for caucus night.

the caller wants to stop trump and will do whatever it takes and side where ever i need to side in order to potentially and the possibility that he might not win in iowa. are the favorability numbers that ann selzer was talking about. ben carson with the highest favorable rating there. marco rubio, ted cruz, and then donald trump. enthusiasm is highest for rubio or carson as the nominee. ann selzer, talk about that. guest: isn't that interesting? [laughter] one of the questions we asked was rushed forget who you are if the nominee were marco rubio, tell us your level of enthusiasm and supporting him as the nominee? he gets a very high number for enthusiasm as does ben carson. donald trump, i think of the people we tested, again, you have those numbers in front of you.

i think he has the lowest amount of enthusiasm if he ends up being the nominee. is that right? host: let me see here. sorry, live television. my ipad went out on me, but i got it back here. [laughter] donald trump has 44% for fairly enthusiastic and 56% at just not ok with it. 1% is not sure. guest: yeah, celeste than half of the people who are republican caucus-goers with donald trump the front runner ending up with the nomination -- less than half are going to be very enthusiastic about it. host: on the democrat side, you asked the same question about enthusiasm. it is higher for hillary clinton nominee theme them bil bernie sanders. guest: there will several ways

that hillary clinton look stronger than a three-point lead. her enthusiasm was stronger. the proportion of people who are supporters say they are committed to her were stronger. where youseveral ways put the whole thing together and her number looks pretty solid. a three-point lead is nothing to take for granted, but there was a sturdiness and her support that made her a little stronger than bernie sanders. host: clinton's support more solid when it comes to the chance of the first choice candidate. would you set your mind is made up or persuaded? you can see the numbers they. let us go to stephen in connecticut. you are on the air. caller: thanks for taking my call. your polling is really fascinating. i think sanders is going to pull an upset. i'm not too sure how this caucus delegate thing works. i think this whole economy vote is going to drive sanders forward. find what is curious is that

both sanders and trump were totally against going into the middle east. against going into the middle east. i'm not for sending my men and women in arms to fight civil war in the middle east right now. if trump wins tonight, he ought to start running a general election campaign. host: i believe it there. ann selzer? guest: there is such an interesting parallel universe here of what is happening on the democratic side and what's happening on the republican side. i question we asked is whether you think the system is rate to favor -- rigged to favor the powerful and wealthy or if you work hard, you have a chance to get ahead? on the republican side, if you think the system is rigged in favor of the powerful and wealthy, that is one of the strongest constituencies

supporting donald trump. on the democratic side, it is one of the strongest constituencies supporting bernie sanders. we had a caller who said i want to stop trump and go to bernie sanders. there are parallels that reflect a nation wishing for dramatic change. host: bruce in iowa, democrat. will you be caucusing tonight, and if so, for which candidate? caller: no, i probably won't be. i have to work those hours. i do believe that i probably will be voting for bernie sanders. i do believe the system is rigged. i do believe that the top 1% has all the wealth in the country and that it needs to change. all this bureaucratic deadlock is a joke. they can't agree on anything. host: ann selzer? guest: i think he is just

stating what we have been talking about, which is people are fed up. host: you also asked this question to those that you polled of likely caucus-goers. which candidate cares most about people like you? bernie sanders getting 51% when you asked that question and 37% going to hillary clinton. i also want to show our viewers this. time for a woman president? ok for a socialist? presidentfor a woman and 11% disagree. is it time for a socialist? disagree. a previous poll, we had labels and would you describe yourself this way or not? probably there were 15 or 17 items in our list. one of the most interesting items was the word socialist.

43% of likely democratic caucus-goers said i would use that word to describe me. a higher percentage than would say capitalist describes them. that was 38%. i think what has happened with bernie sanders is that he has made the word socialist and ok word to say out loud. the iowa poll has been conducted continuously through 1943. we went to our archives to figure out if we ever asked what proportion of iowans would use the term socialist to describe themselves. we never had a reason to ask before. we do not know if 43% represents a bigger number are lower number than we have seen before, but you have over 60% saying it is ok for the united states to have a president who describes himself as a democratic socialist. host: levittown, new york -- go ahead and finish a thought. guest: i was just going to say that's a strong signal that what bernie sanders has built -- the

barrier that one would think in being a socialist at least in the nomination process is not that big a barrier. host: philip in new york, go ahead. think that every american citizen should go out and vote because it is given to us as a privilege, given by our veterans. as far as donald trump, he is a ofe patriot in the footsteps peter muhlenberg, if you know who we was. register des moines front page reminding voters in the hawkeye state that it's caucus night. that is the banner headline on the front page this morning. eyes on twitter says, how often have the public and takings in iowa wound up the nominee or the winner of the general election? guest: they did take george w. bush. was one of the boring

carcasses because he led through the beginning and end. al gore led to the beginning and end. it's interesting to see the assignment iowa is given and no state looks at more candidates than iowa does. there is a willingness to listen to candidates, a willingness to size them up, a willingness to keep an open mind and to think about them. the charge is not necessarily to plot the one because you are choosing a pretty big field. part of it is to win know it out. let the smaller producing candidates know that perhaps it is time for them to get out and they are not going to be able to be successful. there is a vetting process here. because of the state is small, they can meet the candidates right up close and in person. they can shake their hands and look them in the eye. a lot of things that iowans are doing that hope the process move forward and choose the eventual

nominee. it's not quickly they necessarily have to be the one to do it first. think whoever wins iowa or comes in second or third place -- does that impact polling heading into new hampshire do you think? guest: if you look at the polls in new hampshire, they look in movable. there are huge leads there for both donald trump and bernie sanders. it is hard to imagine anything happening in iowa that will dozensbecause there are of points ahead there. it often does happen that there is momentum that comes out of iowa. jimmy carter started things off. nobody knew who he was. there was no chance for him to win if he had not won iowa. more recently, when barack obama won iowa, it proved to the nation that this was a person who could win. we had hillary clinton as the presumed nominee. she did go on to win new

hampshire and it was a long fight after that. iowa,rack obama not won there likely would've been -- the game likely would've been over afternoon hampshire. host: walter is next in new hampshire. caller: good morning to thanks for having me on. i was just kind to make the point that i think at this point all americans should vote for bernie sanders. the reason i say that is because we just need traumatic change. we cannot afford hillary clinton. she looks good in everything, but as an american, i know i need better schools in my community. i need more economic development. i want stuff to change in my community. i'm tired of living in a way where i feel i have to leave where i'm from to find a better way of life. i need politicians to know how to change things around exactly where i live. i'm proud of my community, my neighborhood, and my people. the problem is our leadership does not invest in us anymore.

you're not providing opportunities for us. when we do have to stand in line for the handouts, we get slapped in the face for it. host: ann selzer? guest: you are hearing and that caller right there that the mood in the country is that people are fed up. they have leaders in office right now who they feel are not standing up for them. that is the appeal of bernie sanders, who is leading people to say, look, i know what your situation is. i have these policies in place. we will make a change. we will improve life for the people who have been left out of a system benefiting the higher ups. he is exactly articulated the bernie sanders message empty set upness of people you never thought would be a front runner in either the republican or democratic parties because people are willing for

change. however risky that change might seem, they think the greater risk is not making a change. in maryland, andrea, a democrat. caller: i'm happy and i'm here to show my position and give my vote to hillary. isike the fact that she almost running another obama term and her husband term. she chance for children, gays, and, lesbians, i appreciate how she handled all the vitriolty and towards her because of the e-mail issue and benghazi. i want her to stand strong and we are behind her. i want to let the people know to encourage the children and

families to get out and vote. if you do not get out and vote, get out and vote and encourage older people to do the same. andre in right, maryland, a democrat. ann selzer? guest: i think again that you are hearing the divide in the democratic party. we need tocally said continue what barack obama has started. that is how hillary clinton is running and that is what a lot of people feel this to her advantage. we asked questions about bill clinton specifically, wanting to find out. he can be a controversial person. and overwhelmingly, the likely democratic iowa caucus-goers tell us ill clinton is an asset to her campaign and it's one more advantage to support hillary clinton. host: lettuce wrap up with this question. what will you be watching tonight? [laughter] in thefirst of all,

privacy of my living room without the benefit of a camera, i'm really going to be looking at western iowa. last night, donald trump did an event in sioux city, which is the largest city in the heart of the major evangelical center of the state. is that heays to me is conceding nothing to ted cruz , who has a strong support among evangelicals. donald trump is saying, look, i need your vote, i need your support. i want to win here in a part of the state that people might think is ted cruz country. ted cruz one d endorsement of the congressman of that district and has been pretty much attached to the hip campaigning side by side. i'm looking at those counties in northwest iowa to see if they go for ted cruz where they go for trump. we will see what happens and that will be rather telling. host: on the democrat side? guest: on the democrat side, i'm going to be looking at -- wow,

eastern iowa where there is a higher concentration of democratic delegates. to checkd to be hard out. i hope there is analysis of what is happening in those towns that are highly concentrated with college students. i'm going to be looking for caucus sites more in the rural counties to see if young people are showing up out there. who: ann selzer, pollster did the final poll for "the des moines register" and bloomberg. thanks for digging into the numbers with us. we appreciate it. guest: my pleasure. host: that does it for today's "washington journal." we will be back here tomorrow. do not miss our coverage tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern tonight at c-span and c-span2. we will bring you to yesterday where ted cruz held a campaign at johnson county fairgrounds in iowa city. he talks about issues he would tackle in office as his first day