efforts over a course of time, creating an environment where somebody like a donald trump can thrive. he is just doing more of what has been done for the last 7 1/2 years, and in fact, in terms of his position on a range of issues, they are not a whole lot different between any of the other candidates. it is not as if there is a massive difference between mr. trump's position on immigration and mr. cruz's position on immigration. mr. trump is just different in the way he says it. they are not a big difference between mr. trump's position and mr. rubio's position on immigration, despite the fact that mr. cruz and mr. rubio are both products of immigration and the openness of our society.

so i am more than happy to own the responsibility as president, as the only officeholder who is elected by all of the american people, to continue to make efforts to bridge divides and help us find common ground. as i have said before, i think that common ground exists all across the country and you see it every day in the way people live together, work together, play together, and raise their kids together. but what i am not going to do is to validate some notion that the republican crackup that has been taking place is a consequence of actions that i have taken.

and what is interesting -- i will just say one last thing about this -- there are thoughtful conservatives who are troubled by this, who are troubled by the direction of their party. i think it is very important for them to reflect on what it is about the politics they have engaged in that allows the circus we have been seeing to transpire and to do some introspection, because ultimately, i want an effective republican party. i think this country has to have responsible parties that can govern and that are prepared to lead and govern whether they are in the minority or the majority, whether they occupy the white house or they do not.

i have often said i want a serious, effective republican party, in part to challenge some of the blind spots and dogmas in the democratic party, and i think that is useful. you mentioned trade. i believe that there have been bad trade deals on occasion in the past, that oftentimes have served the interests of global corporations, but not necessarily served the interests of workers, but i am absolutely persuaded that we cannot put up walls around the global economy and that to sell a bill of goods to the american people and workers that if you just shut down trade somehow your problems

will go away prevents us from actually solving some of these big problems about inequality and the decline of our manufacturing base and so on. and that is an area where some traditional conservatives and economists have had some important insights. but they can't be presented effectively if it's combined with no interest in helping workers and busting up unions and providing tax breaks to the wealthy rather than folks who are working hard and trying to pay the bills. and certainly, it's not going to be heard if coupled with vehement anti-immigrant sentiment that betrays our values.

ok. i think the democratic voters are doing just fine working this out. i think it's useful that we have had a vigorous debate among to wo good people who care deeply about our country and who have fought hard on behalf of working people in this country for a long time. i think it has been a good conversation, and my most important role will be to make sure that after the primaries are done i bring everybody together so that we can focus on winning the general election. reporter: i will be asking my question in french but i will repeat it for you in english afterward.

translator: mr. trudeau, you have not talked about lumber, and it's a major problem with bilateral relations. have you thought about a solution to avoid the conflict reopening in october? what can you do so it survives the november election? all of this could have to be restarted a year from now? reporter: to what extent is fear of losing seeks to the democrats hampering progress on this? that being said, you and mr. trudeau have signed a number of issues. what can be done for this progress to not be lost with the arrival of the new administration?

[speaking in french] translator: this morning we worked very hard and made a lot of progress, and have shown what is at stake, a lot is at stake. we hope this will be solved shortly to help not only canadian workers and the canadian economy but the economy of both of our countries. among these discussions, of course we raised the question of lumber. we keep on working on that. i am totally confident that we are on the right track to a solution in the next weeks and months to come. now, in terms of the decision we have taken and the work we have done today, i am extremely

confident that what we have managed to achieve, the agreement we have taken and the solutions we have found for the problems we have faced together, i am confident all of this is going to become a reality because at every stage, not only are we talking about what is good for one side or the other side, but we are talking about what is good for both countries. our economies are so interwoven, the populations so interconnected that we are going to have agreement, for instance, that will facilitate crossing of borders while increasing the security of our citizens. this is good for both sides and it is where we worked so hard together with a lot of progress and a lot of success today.

prime minister trudeau: we discussed many issues this morning, issues that have been worked on intensely by our respective friends, colleagues, and delegations over the past weeks and months. certainly, soft-wood lumber came up. and i'm confident we are on a track toward resolving this irritant in the coming weeks and months. but in general, the issues we made tremendous progress on, i am extremely confident will move forward in a rapid and appropriate fashion because we found such broad agreement on issues that are not just good for one of our two countries,

but indeed both of our countries, canadians and americans, for our jobs, for our kids and their futures, for workers, businesses as we tackle challenges on the economy, challenges on the environment, and understand that working together in constructive, productive ways is exactly what this relationship and indeed this friendship is all about. i am feeling extremely good about the hard work we have done this morning, and indeed about the work remaining to do over the coming weeks and months on the issues we brought forward today. president obama: this issue of soft-wood lumber will get resolved in some fashion. we are already making progress on it. it has been a long-standing bilateral irritant, but hardly defines the nature of the

u.s.-canadian relationship, and we have some very smart people and they will find a way to resolve it. undoubtedly, to the dissatisfaction of all parties concerned, because that is the nature of these kinds of things, right? each side will want 100% and we will find a way for each side to get 60% or so of what they need, and people will complain and grumble, but it will be fine. and in terms of continuity, one thing i will say -- this is an area where i will play the elder statesman, as alex described me. and as somebody who came in after an administration that

politically saw things very differently than i did, what you discover is that for all the differences you may have in your political parties, when you are actually in charge, then you have to be practical, and you do what is needed to be done and what is in front of you, and one of the things that is important for the united states or for canada or for any leading power in the world is to live up to its commitments and to provide continuing momentum on efforts even if they did not

start under your administration. so there were a whole host of initiatives that began under the bush administration, some that i was very enthusiastic about, like pepfar, which provides vital drugs for aids in various parts of the world, something that president bush deserves enormous credit for. we continue that, but there were some that when i was outside the government, i questioned how they were approaching it. i might have tweaked it and i might say to my foreign partners look, we have a problem doing it this way, but here is a suggestion for how we can do the same thing or meet your interests in a slightly different way, but you are

always concerned about making sure that the credibility of the united states is sustained or the credibility of canada is sustained, which is why, when there is turnover in governments, the work that has been done continues, particularly when you have a close friendship and relationship like we do with canada, it's not like the work we are doing on entry and exit visas vanishes when the next president comes in. of course, i intend to make sure the next president who comes in agrees with me on everything, but just in case that doesn't happen, the u.s. and canadian relationship will be fine. all right? thank you, everybody. thank you.

[captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2016] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org]

>> next, the white house welcome ceremony for canadian prime minister justin trudeau and his

wife. this is 35 minutes. [band playing] ♪

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>> ladies and gentlemen, the president of the united states and mrs. michelle obama. [applause] the chief]il to ♪

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>> ladies and gentlemen, the

national anthem of canada followed by the national anthem of the united states. canada" plays] ♪ ♪

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[" the star-spangled banner" plays] ♪ ♪ ♪

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>> ceremonial, ceremonial at peace. .eremonial at peace pres. obama: good morning everybody. bonjour. on behalf of the american people, on behalf of michelle

and myself, it is my honor to welcome to the united states prime minister justin trudeau. , [applause] mrs. trudeau. their beautiful children and the quite good-looking canadian delegation. [applause] it has long been said that you can choose your friends, but you cannot choose your neighbors. [laughter] well, by virtue of geography, the united states and canada are blessed to be neighbors. and by choice, we are steadfast allies and the closest of friends. [applause]

the truth is though, we don't express this enough, in part because of our national characters. our canadian friends can be more reserved, more easy-going. we americans can be a little louder, more boisterous. and as a result, we have not always conveyed how much we treasure our alliance and ties with our canadian friends. that is why today we are very proud to welcome the first official visit by a canadian prime minister in nearly 20 years. [applause] it's about time, eh? [laughter] and what a beautiful day it is. which is a little unfair. as president, my very first foreign trip was to canada -- to ottawa in february. [laughter]

in the snow. still, our friends from the great white north gave me a very warm welcome. mr. prime minister, we hope to reciprocate some of that warmth today with your first official visit south of the border. we are joined today by proud canadian americans. [applause] we are family, and this is also a special day for the many canadians who live and work here in america, and who enrich our lives every day. [applause] we don't always realize it, but so often that neighbor, that coworker, that member of the white house staff, some of our favorite artists or performers -- they are canadian. they sneak up on you. [laughter] even as we remember what makes us unique, americans and

canadians -- we see ourselves in each other. we are guided by the same values, including our conviction to the blessings we cherish as free people. they are not gifts to be taken for granted, but her precious -- our precious freedoms that have to be defended a new by every generation. americans and canadians our , brave men and women in uniform have paid the price together across a century of sacrifice. from the poppy fields of flanders, to the rugged mountains of afghanistan. as nato allies, we stand united against terrorism. and for the rights of nations like ukraine to determine their own destiny. as leaders at the united nations, we stand up for peace , and security, and the human rights of all people. our shared values also guide us at home. i am proud to be the first american president to stand with a canadian prime minister and be able to say that in both our nations, health care is not a

privilege for a few, but is now a right for all. [applause] and as two vast and vibrant societies, we reaffirm that our diversity is our strength. whether your family was among the first native peoples to live on these lands, or the refugees we welcomed just yesterday. whether you pray in a church, or a synagogue, or a temple, or a mosque. where no matter what province or state you live in, you have the freedom to marry the person that you love. [applause] now, i don't want to gloss over the very real differences between americans and canadians. there are some things we will probably never agree on.

whose beer is better-- [laughter] who is better at hockey. [chatter] [laughter] p.m. trudeau: don't get me started. pres. obama: where is the stanley cup right now? [laughter] pres. obama: i'm sorry, is it in my hometown, with the chicago blackhawks? [applause] in case you were wondering. in case you canadians were wondering, where is it? [laughter] and this visit is special for another reason. nearly 40 years ago, on another march morning, another american president welcomed another canadian prime minister here to the white house. that day, prime minister pierre

trudeau said the united states was canada's best friend and ally. he said that was because we have a common outlook on the world. today, prime minister justin trudeau carries on his work. as prime minister, your election in the first few months in office have brought a new energy and dynamism not only into canada, but to the relationship between our nations. we have a common outlook on the world. i have to say i have never seen so many americans so excited about the visit of a canadian prime minister. [cheers] so with this visit, i believe that the u.s. and canada can do even more together, even more to promote the trade and economic partnerships that provide good jobs and opportunities for our people. even more to ensure the security that so many americans and canadians count on, so that they can live in safety and freedom. even more to protect our countries and our communities, especially in the arctic from climate change.

just as we acted together at paris to reach the most ambitious agreement in history to fight climate change. [applause] and guided by our values, we can do even more together to advance human development around the world. from saving a child from a preventable disease, to giving the student in africa electricity to study by. because as americans and canadians, we believe in the inherent dignity of every human being. [applause] as always, our work is nations -- as nations remains rooted in the friendship between our peoples. and we see that everyday in communities along our shared border. in hyder, alaska, people had crossed the border to celebrate canada day. people from stuart, british columbia come to celebrate the fourth of july. at the baseball diamond in alberta, if you hit a home run,

there is a good chance the ball will land in sweet grass, montana. in derby line, vermont, where it meets quebec, americans and canadians come together at the local library where the borderline literally runs right across the floor. a resident of one of these border towns once said "we are two different countries but like one big town. people are always there for you." prime minister trudeau -- justin, sophie, to all of our canadian friends -- we are two different countries, but days like this remind us that we are like one big town. we reaffirm that americans, as -- and canadians will always be there for each other. welcome to the united states. [applause] p.m. trudeau: mr. president, first lady, distinguished

guests, friends, ladies and gentlemen -- thank you for this extraordinary welcome. thank you so much for inviting sophie and me and through us, all of canada to join you in this spectacular morning. thank you very much. sophie and i, along with our entire delegation are honored and touched by your magnificent hospitality. and by the reinforcement of how powerful you are mr. president, to organize such a perfect day for us. [laughter] [speaking french]

you may recall that our government was elected on a plan to strengthen the middle class. innovativeitious, agenda, as we realize that revitalizing our economy will require investing in a new ideas and new technologies. a plan will foster emerging industries, create good jobs, an increase our global competitiveness. that was the canadian plan, and of course it very much resembles the challenges and solutions that you have been putting forward south of the border. a plan to invest in our country and invest in our people. , it's wonderful to see that our american friends and partners share and are working on the exact same objectives. see, as are leading trading partner and closest ally, the relationship between our two countries has always been vital. as an exporting nation, canada

is always eager to work closely to reduce trade barriers between our countries. speaking of exports, we know with certainty there is a high demand for canadian goods down here. the few that come to mind that president obama just rightly recognized as being extraordinary contributors to the american success story is duncan keith and patrick sharp of the chicago blackhawks. [laughter] [applause] we faced many challenges over the course of our shared history. while we have agreed on many things and disagreed on a few others, we remain united in a common purpose. allies, partners, and friends, as we tackle the world's great challenges. whether we are charting a course for environmental protection, making key investment to grow

our middle class, or defending the rights of oppressed peoples abroad, canada and the united states will always collaborate in partnership and good faith. the history may be complex, but the bottom line is clear. there is no relationship in the entire world like the canada-u.s. relationship. [cheers] [applause] our great countries have been friends a long time. we grew up together. and like all great enduring friendships, at our best, we bring out the best in one another. and through it all, our enormous shared accomplishments speak for themselves. prosperous, free, diverse societies that have shaped history together. we could not be prouder of that

past. on behalf of 36 million canadians, i thank you all for your warm welcome. now let's get to work on shaping our shared future. merci beaucoup. [applause] >> order! right shoulder, halt! >> mr. president, this concludes the ceremony.

[captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2016] ♪ ♪

[applause] ♪ ♪ >> coming up on c-span, utah senator, mike lee endorsing senator ted cruz for president. then a discussion about the impact of changing american demographics on the 2016 elections. after that, another chance to see our coverage from tonight's white house state dinner for

canadian prime minister, justin trudeau. the french interior minister is in washington dc friday to speak about combating terrorism. he will address the attacks in paris, and global terrorism challenges. we be live from the george washington center for cyber and homeland security at 9:30 a.m. eastern on c-span three. washington journal, live every day with news on policy issues that impact you. on friday, mark do blitz, the executive director of the foundation for defense of democracy will join us. we will discuss the impact of iran's testing of missiles. and then mark stanley on how wall street reform is being discussed by the presidential candidates. convertingfrank, editor of the national journal

will share his thoughts about nancy reagan's legacy. washington journal, friday at 7:00 a.m. eastern. join the discussion. ♪ >> during campaign 2016, c-span takes you on the road to the white house as we follow the candidates on c-span, c-span radio, and c-span.org. >> senator ted cruz received his first senate endorsement for president thursday from utah's mike lee. this is 10 minutes. it is time, my fellow americans, to expect more. it is time to expect freedom. it is time to elect ted cruz as the next president of the united states. look at thisn we

presidential election cycle, one of the many things that comes to mind is the fact that with the recent death of the late justice antonin scalia , a lot of people wonder who will fill that vacancy? who will fill that role? it will name the person? that is one of the great things about ted cruz. americans can proceed with great confidence that ted cruz will pick an absolutely outstanding person to fill antonin scalia a's position on the supreme court the united states. they can also stand with confidence this is a man who believes in his own family. he has stood with his own family. i have enjoyed getting to know ted and his wife, heidi, and their daughters catherine and caroline. i have seen ted stand with them and for them. i have seen him stand with and for his father and four in with his mother. -- for and with his mother. he would stand for you.

he would stand for every mother, father, son and daughter in america. he will do what he said. he will speak the truth, just as he has in the united states senate. and so today, i call on all within the sound of my voice to join me in this cause. to look forward to the first 100 days of a ted cruz presidency. 100 days that will be marked by reform. a reform that will restore the greatness of our economic mobility society. years ouren in recent economic mobility society has been in danger. we see the poor and middle class being held back. we see economic opportunity in there are moreas and more backroom deals that serve only to enrich and further empower those income of who are already enriched and powered -- and empowered. ted cruz will work to undo that and restore the greatness of the american people.

to put the power back where it belongs. which is with the people. it is time, my fellow americans, and in particular today, my fellow republicans, to unite behind one candidate. that candidate is ted cruz. >> what took you so long to endorse ted cruz? what kind of signal are you sending with this endorsement? lee: i am sending the signal that it is time to unite. the time has come. the time is at hand, when we has republicans need to unite behind one leader. claxton senator rubio dropout? -- >> did senator rubio dropout? mike: if senator rubio was asking that, i would encourage him to get behind ted cruz. senator rubio and i speak on a regular basis. >> what was his reaction?

mike: that was a private conversation between the two of us. your -- what do you think of a possibility of -- mike: first of all my focus here is on why i support ted cruz. i am not here to trash talk any candidate, including the one you mentioned. i will say the candidate you mentioned is somebody about whom i have many questions. i am still waiting to hear a lot of things that i still do not know about what motivates donald trump. what informs his policy positions? about what his policy positions actually are on a host of issues. i do not have answers to almost any of those questions. >> your first colleague in the senate -- ted cruz. marco rubio has the lions share of republican endorsement. what do you have to say to your colleagues, and why are they wrong?

mike: the overwhelming majority of republican senators have not endorsed anyone. i expect that will change. i expect i will be there first of any republican senators who will endorse ted cruz. i am confident that more are on the way. i welcome others to join me. almost everything you said on behalf of ted cruz you could've said months ago. what took you so long? that senator cruz said donald trump is unfit to print -- be president. do you agree? mike: as to the first part of your question, again, i was looking for the right moment, when it was time to unite. things have a line. senator cruz has spoken to the american people. the american people in state after state have chosen him. in some states he has come in first, others he has not. he has a building groundswell of

support that is unmistakable. there were a lot of people who initially said it was impossible for him to do what he set out to do. then people just said, it was unlikely. now they are starting to see it is unstoppable. he truly is unstoppable. that is why i think it is time for us to unite behind him. >> what about donald trump? mike: i -- i am not here to say that. i am here to talk about my support for ted cruz. i will repeat what i said earlier, i am still waiting to hear more detail from donald trump on where he stands on a host of issues. importantly, how he views government power and how he interprets the constitution. his youth on federalism and separation of powers. i would like to hear more substance from him. make thatink i can determination based on information he has given so far.

[spanish question] mike:[answers in spanish] >> what kind of a role do you play with your colleagues? mike: the same way i try to influence my colleagues on anything else -- legislation, a speech i think some of you to give -- somebody ought to give. this has been an ongoing process. a parlorant to see game, but this is a frequent topic of conversation among public and senators.

we talk about where the presidential election is going. only republican candidate who can defeat donald trump and who can defeat hillary clinton, and i believe he will. >> [indiscernible] mike: no one person is enough to bring about the result that we want. there are lots of efforts on the part of a lot of people in a lot of states, from a lot of different backgrounds that i believe are going to bring us to that end. what is that? >> [indiscernible] mike: i think it is too early to predict. i would not say we are to that point.

i think a leader could still emerge from the field. somebody could get to the convention with a solid majority. i wouldn't say that at all. [indiscernible] >> at washington times.com, the headline, marco rubio on the march? joining us on the phone is david sherfinski.-- a lot of polling showing the donald trump has the lead, another poll showing that marco rubio is slicing into that, what can you tell us? david: that is correct.

the thing i can say about the poll today is that it was conducted monday through wednesday. it is recent. some of the other polling that has been done, showing donald trump with a larger lead in double digits has been older. either way, it seems like marco rubio is going to have an uphill win ordere plans to -- florida. at this point i think his camp is probably more of the mind 7, 8, 9is sort of an race. that is doable, but not great. host: courting to this poll, donald trump, 36% and marco rubio with 27%. the marco rubio super pac has a new tactic -- showing voters if you vote for ted cruz or governor kasich, you're essentially voting for donald trump. explain. david: that is the message going out.

in the winner take all states of ohio and florida, he will not have these proportional distribution of delegates that we have seen so far in the campaign. first date where state can move to winner take all format. there are still four candidates and donald trump is that 30% and the other three are all at 20%, it is likely that donald trump would win all of laura's 99 -- florida's 99 delegates. what senator rubio and his allies are saying is if there is a vote that is not for me, it is effectively going toward donald trump. helping him. host: let me asking you -- let me ask about the debate.

you know that senator rubio will ask if he will stay in? david: he and his team have had to be back reports -- beat back report of unnamed advisers, things he might be thinking about dropping out before tuesday. before florida votes. i think he has to sort of come out and be as aggressive as he can without sounding desperate, if you will. that has been a storyline this week. every single day it has been marco rubio cap beats back rumors of dropping out dash cam beats back rumors of dropping out.

that could work for him. he has a home-court advantage tonight with the debate being at the university of miami. it could be a friendly crowd. host: with regard to that cnn debate, what do you think the tone will be tonight? any difference from what we saw last week in the foxnews debate? david: that is a good question as well because you have seen donald trump in these press conferences on election nights start to adopt -- not necessarily a more conciliatory tone, but you can see him try to visit to a general election type of town. -- tone. he said he hopes it can be a softer, nicer debate. monthsaw in houston last when marco rubio really started getting aggressive in his attacks on donald trump.

i am not sure that donald trump wants to see that happen again. he just wants to sort of play out the strings, his front runner, the status quo benefits them -- him. forced to send questions about trump university or his past support for abortion rights, things like that come it is better for him, i think that marco rubio knows this is sort of last and. -- stand. he might be in a more aggressive mode that he has been on the campaign trail recently. mix it upill probably a little bit with donald trump, marco rubio, and john kasich. really it has kind of been -- he has been in his own debate in a certain sense the past few times.

staying out of the mud, and talking up his own record. it should be interesting. ask: what may ask -- let me about the endorsement of mike lee endorsing ted cruz, his colleague from texas. this follows the carly fiorina endorsement from yesterday. how significant is this? david: that is a big get for the ted cruz campaign. especially during the announcement and sorted, a -- ahead of the debate tonight on marco rubio's turf. possibly assuring it would come up in the debate because donald , hey,has recently said here is ted cruz, a guy who has not won a signal the single endorsement from any of his colleagues, how could he get along with anybody? that talking point is kind of over now. votesh as it will sway ahead of tuesday, i am not sure how much of an impact it will certainly, mike lee is

close to ted cruz and marco rubio. certainly it sends the signal -- ted thinks cruise cruz is the guy to take on donald trump one-on-one. marco rubio's campaign might be coming to an end soon. the political reporter for the washington his work is available online at washington times.com. thank you for being with us. david: thank you. the whites wrote to house coverage continues ahead of next tuesday's binaries and for to come ohio, illinois, north carolina, and misery -- missouri. donald trump will hold a press conference in palm beach, florida on friday. he is expected to be endorsed by ben carson. you can watch live coverage on c-span2 at 9:00 a.m. eastern. we will join bernie sanders at a campaign rally in summit, from argolive community high school at 9:00

p.m. eastern, also on seas into. -- on c-span two. ♪ teacher. the most important thing to me is education. i am looking at the candidates closely for their programs and education. i am not happy in the last 15 years or so with all of the common core that has been happening. i would like to see that changed around. i am hoping to vote for either bernie sanders or hillary clinton. i am happy with both choices. i am interested to see what their education plans would actually turn out to be. >> i have decided i am voting for ted cruz for the candidacy. he is a constitutional scholar. he is eloquent. he is principled. consistently out of all of the candidate so far. -- candidates so far. >> and, a discussion about the effects of changing america

demographics on campaign 2016 and the november elections. from washington journal, this is just under one hour. "washington journal" continues. host: we are back to talk about the new report of the changing demographics and population in the country. on 2016effect it has and future elections. here for the discussion, ruy teixeira the senior fellow for american progress, and karlyn bowman. bowman, let me begin with you. why did the two of view, and others, come together? guest: we have been working on changing demography for eight years or nine years and this is the second major cooperation. we are also working with the brookings institution and we are interested in numbers and how the population is changing. and how it has a powerful affect. host: you have two different philosophies. guest: we do. togethers brings you

and you come up with the same end results? came up with the same end results and agreed on the facts, which is the motivation of the project. we know that the united states is changing dramatically with population, as it has done in the past and how it will do in the future, and we thought it would useful across the political spectrum to nail down and get the best estimates possible. so much change has taken place and how much we are likely to see in the future. for example, we look at the andging race, ethnics, age dissolution in every state for the year 2015. we took those and walked them into different assumptions about support levels, turnout from the parties, and their implications about how changing demographics will shape you to elections.

that is something to be cognizant of and think about in terms of political strategy. host: let's start with population. how is it changing question mark -- how is it changing? guest: in so many ways. if you look at what is happening with the asian population, growing very quickly, the large hispanic population growing strongly in the big part of the growth in the hispanic population coming from people born in the united states, citizens, people voting, so that will have a significant effect. we looked at the african-american conversation, the slow-growing population, and one that could be extremely important to hillary. we are also looking at the white population in terms of voting population. 1972,han 90% of whites in the electorate was 90% white, and now it is 72% white, so a big change. host: let's stick on that and

talk about the white vote versus the nonwhite vote because we are seeing that being played out right now in this primary process. quite codersible -- white voters are there compared to nonwhite voters? guest: in terms of eligible voters, our election for this 2016 cycle -- the percent of minority voters is 30% in the percent of white eligible voters is 69%. because turnout patterns estimate that whites will be somewhat overrepresented in the voting pool and our guess is more around 71% of actual voters who will be white and 29% as minorities. this represents a to point to climb in the white eligible voters and has increased the minority share of voters. that has been the way things have gone steadily for the last several decades. we expected to continue in the

future. host: you do expect record turnouts in the republican primaries and donald trump's claim -- i am getting people who have never voted before to get out to vote. guest: certainly the turnout in the republican primary and it will be interesting to see that continues through the election. we do not know who he is bringing in to the election. there have been interesting stories on who he has brought to the polls, working white class -- working-class white voters but that remains to be seen. host: what do you make of this? guest: we don't really know how to interpret this. there is a certain amount of enthusiasm. say. really hard to i am personally skeptical we will see a huge spike in white turnout because of this in the november election. we certainly may see something increase in the minority turnout

as well because globalization -- because globalization bites counter mobilization -- mobilization counters counter mobilization. it has very little effect at the margin and you could keep on going in the direction i was alluding to. i certainly think that is the scenario that donald trump may dream about at night. [laughter] guest: huge outpouring of conservative and white support. they increase their support level among the voters, but in the end, it sweeps the upper midwest and takes florida and a few other states. host: would that be the reality? true andream came minority voter turnout remained , if the%, i mean majority of white voters in this country turned out, what might happen? guest: that would probably boost

the gop candidate at this point. i expect -- i don't know whether that will be donald trump or what counter mobilization there would be, but that is a good thing if there is turnout at all. there is a debate about if there were a lot of white voters staying home. this is a debate whether it is not seem to be a perfect answer but something we will watch. host: still ahead. guest: i wanted to say in the report, one of the areas we deal with has a great amount of or shows howt is things can change despite demographics. if you increase the white support for the republicans by four points or five points, under this scenario and keeping voters in the minority turnout level, may not only increase the could seatut but you of substantial republican victory in the popular vote. host: is this one of the six

scenarios? i can show this white utah. that is the result in this map? guest: correct. host: anything to add? guest: no. host: what about the other scenarios? guest: the first three key off previous election results. the turnout in support patterns like obama's victory in 2012, one scenario, b is about the 2008 pattern forward and c is to republicans, it the turnout and support patterns from the 2004 scenario. d is the maximum minority turnout scenario. host: what happens in d? guest: it amplifies the 2008 forward result and does not change the electoral college at all much. not enoughge it but

to give the republicans the 2016 election. this is where we increased the margin or decrease the deficit for the republicans among latinos the nations by 15 points, so big success among minorities. that puts florida in the scenario but nothing else. and just talking about where we have increased whites where we have moved the needle. one thing i should add is that people say, those are just six scenarios. there are probably hundreds more that would have different results, different ways in the 2016 election. they are right, and we have an interactive available on the website that allows you to adjust that. you can set, for example, you think white turnout could spike by seven points and minority turnout the same, you could put that scenario in our interactive website to see what the results are. one's imagination can run wild.

host: we are showing our viewers the report on your website. we should point out -- guest: we should point out that these are predictions. candidates and issues matter and people change, so these are simulations. host: what is your message to both parties? if you look at the election and beyond. guest: they need to be aware of demographic changes, of how the electorate is changing, not just for election but in terms of policy. thosealso thinking about terms and that was part of the project. to the labddition simulation commission, we looked at areas in the workforce, the ,amily, the social contract leaving progressive and leading conservative in each areas where they talk about how the united states will change over time to the graphically, given the way it works with compositional change, voter population, and what does that mean for parties

and what they need to do and program different perspectives to look like? defense,he general they have to pay attention to it, but i think a lot of people also think that there is something intrinsic in isolation support in terms of possible contradictions between the future population and the way in which the politics of this might work out. are a lot ofthere white voters who will be an important part of the population in the voting population, particularly going forward, who may not impact want to support the kinds of programs that might be very important to latino youngsters, even though latinos will be an increasingly important part of the workforce. there are all kinds of moving parts that parties have to think about in a policy sense and in a political sense as well. moving parts of these coalitions to remainy can afford

the way they are today and change nothing. i think that is the challenge for both parties. they have to change with the population and i think that is how parties have a time turning and going forward. we are saying, maybe consider that. guest: and older voters are more white at this point and they are going to be increasingly brown as we go forward, and that is something we have been thinking about, so that may change the political dynamic. host: here is something from pew, millennials make up a larger share of latino voters and other groups in 2016. guest: 44%, absolutely. and havere very young become increasingly so over time, therefore, the latino voting population is still young smallrnout is quite

one of theoung, so only ways to overcome it is by increasing globalization among younger voters because it is important in the population. it is a challenge for the democrats. host: i want to show this to you guys and get your reaction. we should viewers earlier. george soros and others trying to mobilize the latino vote to help democrats. liberal voters to fronts, this would be the largest ever. $15 million in key states where they are seeing the latino population growth, colorado, florida, nevada, a large growing latino and asian population. isst: this is something that a great deal of interest and concern for people on the left side of the spectrum, in and around the democratic party.

it is not exactly a state secret that on the one hand, the group is sort of sympathetic to the democrats and their growing rapidly, and on the other hand, they have a low turnout. that is a problem. it is like the holy grail. if we can just get all those orple to come out and vote people with the turnout of other groups, we would do a lot better, especially at the state level in congressional races. that is true. i think it is privy to, but on the other hand, one of our simulations show that in the short run, equalizing latino and asian turnout with white turnout would really change the presidential election but just amplify it. at the margin, it is quite important, but it would not be a total game changer. the political system is so complex and there are so many other things going on, and the

influence of the white population remains large. guest: globalization is hard, particularly for young people. they are not reliable voters, but i think it is important to remember that minority millennials will vote democratic, but white millennials voted republican, including the women, which was quite a surprise. host: let's get to calls. connie in new jersey. democrat, you are up first. mr.er: my question is for teixeira. last nameng that your is from portugal or [indiscernible] [laughter] caller: now, my question to you is this -- when you called latinos, you are implying you are live in. asian -- i amite,

75 years old and i don't know who i am no more. map, there areat a bunch of people, races, nationalities. could you explain to me where you get that from? guest: i am a portuguese extraction, so that is where my father's family was from. they were from southeast and north of article. -- of portugal. in terms of the issue of how do we know or what is it even mean to say someone is latino, perhaps, that is an unsatisfactory but to answer to that is that anyone who says in a survey that they are hispanic or hispanic descent, and they are assigned to latino. typically, that means part of

their family came from central america, south america, mexico, what have you, and that is really all it means. that at this point, typically, the way it is asked in the race question is that it allows you to identify or suppress whites, blacks, asians and there is another question asking if you are hispanic. they may change the question on the senses so that hispanic is included in the race question itself. we think those results will be equivalent to what we are theing, but that is just acutest way of saying, you are what you say you are. --is a scientific concept this is not a scientific concept but a social one. guest: certainly something that ruy and that are interested in is intermarriage. that adds a layer of complexity to the statistics we have been

talking about. host: that is the conversation this morning, the different population, the changing population in demographics in the country. ruy teixeira and karlyn bowman working on a report without the groups about the impact it has on the presidential election. let's throughout this -- this is the racial composition of eligible voters from 2012, and you can see that the greatest the white votes, the lighter gray is the black boat and the hispanic, asian and other. you can see how it has grown since 2000 and or it is headed in 2016 and beyond. host: kb in texas, republican. good morning. caller: yes, the problem i have with all of this is that i come from way back and my family was involved with the civil war. we fought each other in the civil war. some of my relatives fight against each other and killed each other. there is black in my family to start with.

all my grandchildren are hispanic, and am a great grandchildren are hispanic, and i disagree with the lady when she says the hispanic vote is going to go mostly democratic. not in texas they are not. andte the way that race religion are brought into the elections because it does nothing but harm our security and our peace in our families in this country. it has done it for a long time and it needs to not be there. i don't think that that should be reported. people who have lived here and who have not done anything wrong in the country, i have a right to stay here. i think that they deserve to be here legally. host: ok, karlyn bowman? guest: nationally, democrats have won the hispanic folk, but

you are correct. in texas, republicans have done well among hispanics and that is important. hispanics have not had the same distinctive experience historically that african-americans have had. that is a monolithic vote with over 80% democratic for a long time. it is hard to know how hispanics will be voting this generation or the next, but they have cast the first two votes nationally for president obama. inst: according to estimates 2012 of the latino population, texas was one of the more republican latino populations. theas 58-40 in texas but national level was 71-27, so there is less democratic leaning in some statewide offices, but they still tend to be democratic. i agree with the caller entirely that one cannot assume that this

population will always be reelection,ith the the coming election, and it just depends on the candidates and what they are saying. the candidates with mr. trump on the republican side, i think one could reasonably save the latino population will either be just as democratic in 2012 or more so. host: we heard from hispanic users only before you joined at the table, and we did hear from hispanic voters who are supporting donald trump. , as well as inm florida and texas, and then i ask, why not your home state senator? they just liked donald trump's message. it seems to be resonating across different parties in demographics. guest: as we said, candidates and issues matter. i think donald trump's campaign to make america great again is something that resonates with many boaters. host: let's go to maryland.

democrat. caller: good morning. i do not care how many scenarios you come up with. america is browning. that is why the republicans are doing everything they can to keep minorities from voting with the voter id laws, voter registration restrictions, etc. what americans have to do is go to their interest. it is really important to them. white america is upset. they have been voting for republicans all this time, and now they are feeling let down. nothing is being done for them, only for the top 1% or whatever. the way we can vote for interests is to vote in the midterms. president, all you can do is proposed, congress is the one that pushes things through, and the president only signs. host: i want to pick up on

something you said with who is voting, the white voters and nonwhites. white males propel trump and sanders and they were angry in michigan and trade was a big issue for that. ruy teixeira? guest: absolutely true. mentioned the browning of america, well, the inverse of that is the less whitening of america. you combine that with the economic problems that have affected white noncollege voters a the country and there is recipe for resentment, for feeling that even if the country is changing in the demographic ways, the economic status has slipped and economic ability has been stymied, and they are ticked off. the only thing obvious to them, particularly in their states, is that as we proceed with the policies we have in terms of

globalization, one can argue about globalization and if it is good or bad, but it has had an effect on manufacturing jobs that are important in a lot of the states. it connects to that feeling that the caller mentions that our are fine forcies the people at the top, but it really ticks me off. white men particularly [indiscernible] host: i want to show another headline from today's financial times. trump draws white working-class away from democratic allegiance. any americans now feel trump represents them and these are democratic and democratic-meaning independents that mr. trump is doing well with. guest: one of the most fascinating statistics in the exit poll for michigan was the 59% of democrats said they felt trade caused the loss of jobs.

they voted for trump and sanders, so you are seeing something real in michigan. i think it is proven correct, particularly after the 2008 financial crash, that people feel they are falling behind. perhaps, a part a lot of new voters, white working-class voters into the electorate. it is hard to know at this point. host: if we look at the primary andndar, donald trump bernie sanders could do well in these other midwest states coming up. host: they certainly could. it is less -- guest: they certainly could. it is less clear to me if sanders will do as well in the other states. with the exception of ohio because of the home state advantage that kasich has, but i think more broadly than that, not only will these kinds of feelings for public sanders and trump into the respective candidacies, but i think it will shape to some extent the date of

the general election. i think it is easy sometimes for these issues to be shoved under the table and say, well, things will work out in the long run, but people do not live in the long run, they live in the short run. they are ticked off and they want someone to a knowledge their problems and even better, do something about it. i think the stability of democratic or republican parties is decreasing at this point. host: incentive go, independent -- in san diego, independent. welcome. caller: i think what we are talking about is the fabric of america. have been getting tidbits from c-span, not watching every morning, of course, it is crazy waking up this early to watch that show what i do know some who do so. i did watch one tidbit where approximately 59 million immigrants have come to the united states.

the vast majority of these immigrants, if i can use immigrant, come from socialist or socialism governments across the whole spectrum of the world. they are supposed to come here but it does not appear they are assimilating. it appears as though the every socialist ideas with them. this idea is part of the problem as far as the united states is concerned. when we go back to what you just read earlier this morning about person iros, who is a do not respect, he is trying to change america in his own liking. american the stanford progress is a political extension on george soros. let's remember, i looked up george soros on wikipedia and he

is one of the gentleman that effectively, back in 1972, caused the greatest problem in great britain. in american, not a white american, brown american, i am an all the american -- olive american and part of that tells me i am in between t he two factions trying to control this country. populationgrant continues to grow, the united states will be driven into and at this -- an abyss because there's no way of doing a 50-50 voting block in this country. you cannot stop it, but when it comes to immigration, i remember back in the days of george bush where we had e-verify, and e-verify was very effective, but nobody wants to talk about that. talk about building

fences, modes, whatever you want to do, but i was -- but it was very effective. host: i have to get it of calls, so i will have to leave it there. ruy teixeira, any thoughts? guest: sal, i cannot say i agree with what sal is saying, but i think it is interesting in that it represents a lot of the views of white americans about immigration patterns and what they really mean. i think we can leave aside this claim that these people are all socialists are come from socialist countries and that is demonstrably not true. also, the claim that i am upon of george soros, not that i have anything against george soros, but he is someone i am directly connected to and we have worked for american progress, but the topicat aside,

about immigration and people not assimilating into the united states and causing this social cataclysm, i guess i do not see the evidence. i think they are assimilating. they are mostly here to work, make money, sort of help out their families. an area with a lot of latinos and they seem fine to me and they seem like they assimilate. the american dream -- you come to a place and you try to do better, have mobility, help your family, and you try to be a big community member. that is true in the native population as well, so i do think this is something that people feel. they feel that their country is no longer theirs. there are all these people they don't recognize or feel a connection to who are making their country into something they do not recognize any more and i think that is what mr. trump is getting at. it is kind of like, we have let

our country get away from us and the more we let the people come in, the worse it will be. it is a placeholder for other social problems. i understand where the caller comes from. host: let me give you allen next in new york. a republican. caller: hi. host: question or comment? caller: question. turn downhave got to your television. if you're listening to the television, you will get feedback. rich in missouri. independent caller. good morning. caller: good morning. host: hi, rich. caller: this is fritz. host: go ahead. caller: just a comment. watch c-span all the time. i am retired now, but it seems ,o me that the idea of america

every time you turn on the tv, they are talking race and it seems like to me, it should be against the law for any toernment office or official ask a person's race if we are all created equal and we are all americans. host: those are his thoughts. why don't i give you this, a tweet from smiley who asked -- republicans lost the minority vote is for another general election, for another generation, excuse me, especially after this election. been raising have that issue and it remains to be seen. you had a number of callers earlier who were hispanic and for trump. it does not appear he will have that much support among the hispanic population going forward, but that said, i think we have to be careful about projecting things that for a generation. we have all been surprised by

what we have seen in the election and relating to the candidates. clearly, they have made roads into the population and they need to start [indiscernible] host: we will go to beverly in michigan. democrat. beverly james in michigan. host: go ahead. caller: i am a democrat, but i remember [indiscernible] i don't remember where that senator was. host: we are listening. finish your thoughts. caller: they said 15 years ago, there was not enough white men in this country in order to win. i would like to know where senator packwood, what state he was in, and if anybody could sign that statement. the other thing i would like to category someey

of the spanish and whites in the category an instead of asian? those of the two questions. host: ruy teixeira? guest: i think the second question has been true. a lot of latinos or hispanics and whites, it is true in the sense that they are literally two different questions. if you ask people what their race is, almost all latinos say they are wiped it given white, black, asian -- if they are given the choice, white, black, asian. so that is all true. packwood'stor statement about white man, i cannot identify that, what i think -- the issue about white election, they are declining as the share of potential voters, therefore, the weight in the electorate declines. also, it is mathematically the case that if you increase their support to your party, for

example, the republicans with the countervailing force to the show the voters have, so it is possible to continue to ride the votes of white man to victory, particularly concerned states, but it becomes harder and not as common. host: it is possible this presidential cycle. guest: it is possible. host: that donald trump could win primarily with white voters. guest: that is one of our scenarios. guest: another thing, the white working-class is being carried by a substantial margin. believe barack obama lost by a few percentage points with the white working class. guest: 25. guest: ok, 25, so things could be interesting with the turnout. host: if there is a counter surge, like you said, what needs to happen with nonwhite

voters? is thei think that trump increased white working -- has increased the white working voters and turn them out at a higher level. for would sort of be worked the white side of the equation -- nonwhite side of the equation, is that the overall percent, including all minorities, blacks, asians, and for the turnout when they roughly where it was in 2012 go up by only a percentage point. i think he could pull it out. there are scenarios. that -- al beaut is view is that he will not be a strong candidate, but it is possible. host: perhaps that is why you are seeing the effort by george soros and others to try to motivate latino voters to get out and vote in the general

election. in michigan, republican, go ahead. make a i would like to comment about super pac's. they come up with a lot of money of spending and outright to see 10% or 20% given to soup kitchens. they are not helping out the people at all. it is a washout. nothing has trickle down to any of us. aroundeds to be switched immediately, if not soon. host: how old are you and what do you do for living question mark -- living? caller: i do construction and i'm off the grid. do you understand? host: yes. are you going to vote? .aller: you bet your butt i have about five or six people to vote. do not underestimate this train. pac's, they do

not show anything toward the people. host: that is part of the appeal for donald trump, he is not the intended by special interests. americansolutely, and do not mind if they spend their own money in politics. they do not like super pac's overall, but the super pac for jeb bush had not been successful at all. host: allison in maryland. independent. caller: good morning. i wanted to call. i am hispanic, puerto this-mexican ascent -- end, and i wanted to give a positive view. i disagree with the previous caller that must hispanics and latinos have a socialist view and do not assimilate very well in this country. i think with the first generation when the parents come and and that they have second generational kids that go to

american high schools, they do assimilate. a perfect -- i am a perfect example of that. i am college educated, served in the reserves, have a very well -paying job, so there is a positive side to the immigrant issue. i think people tend to paint it as a negative thing that they typically come and take lower paying jobs or do not assimilate. host: great to share. guest: i definitely agree with the caller. that is a more accurate characterization of immigrants and general latino immigrants. in particular, one interesting thing to think about in this context of who is the immigrant, it is not the case that the people who most present immigrants tend to be those who live in areas that have immigrants, it is actually the reverse. they are people who attend to live in areas where immigration is relatively small or they are

just showing up in their towns. in cosmopolitan, metropolitan areas where there is a large immigrant population, and there population,dense they tend to be pretty positive about immigration because they thatit and see it is not bad. people are just trying to make a living, help the families, the american dream, all of that, and they are not criminals. they are very hard-working. the patterns of assimilation are different and generational patterns are different. heritage may be republican in the first but democratic in the second and third. whereas, people from latin america may have different political views overall, but their children and grandchildren tend to speaking with us, speaking well and integrate themselves into the society. host: did you see that change you are talking about in cuban americans injured george w. bush 's election and then it played out in 2008 that that second-generation leaned democrat? guest: that is an we began to

see it. absolutely. host: the second to new in 2016? guest: it may. it depends on how attractive the candidate is. guest: it is hard to say that it is possible for it if it is ted cruz, for example, cuban-americans might sort of drift toward the democrats and cuban-americans may if it is donald trump, i would be skeptical that we would not move -- and a to continued move of cuban-americans to democrats. host: washington. independent. i was born in a hostile country and he's talking about assimilation. black people in atlanta assimilate, period. i went to an all-black school.

separate and not equal and they are talking about assimilation? this guy is italian. did he go to a white school or black school? you talk about neocon conservatives, that is the biggest con going around. thank you and you will have a great day. -- you all have a great day. , ruy teixeira?ks guest: if you look at the african-american population in the united states, even though obviously everybody speaks english and most of them have been here for quite a long time, , there conditions in life make them feel like they are not assimilated economically and socially. there is told this termination in terms of their economic prospects. the education in certain areas can be dreadful. host: how does that play out in

voter participation? guest: in younger african americans, they are not democratic, they are independent. what has been significant about the last two elections is that in 2008 mother the rate of voting by younger african-americans was equal to the rate of older african-americans. in 2012, african-americans voted at a higher rate than white voting. guest: it is not true in congressional elections yet. it is true in a large number of states, this has been the case the last one or two elections. host: on the democratic side, you are seeing a big turnout make a difference for hillary

clinton. this that continue in a general election? guest: there's a lot of debate about this. obviously, blacks lean heavily democratic. someone like trump or cruz would be an unattractive and it for them -- candidate for them. hillary is not black. even though they might support hillary, will they turn out for her at the level they did for barack? by and large, they probably will -- we might see a slight decline in turnout, but i don't think it will be a large one. we will see similar performance. singhthe white house in obama will not endorse a candidate. they've been going back and forth at the white house but josh earnest singh yesterday that he will not. guest: hillary clinton could experience a little erosion. she's working hard to shore up the african american vote.

host: wilson in columbia, mississippi. democrats line. go ahead. my name is wilson mcgee. black people have been trying to assimilate ever since we've been in this country. every time we try to move , the othermilate side starts doing things to us. this has been going on for almost 300 years. we come in and they see us as being on the other side. losers in this society.

the only thing we've been trying to do is become a part of it. host: which of these democrat or republican candidates do you feel could help with the process? caller: my grandfather was a republican. my grandfather was a republican. the blacks did not leave the republican party. the republican party left us. they didn't need blacks in their party. they would not tell them where the meetings were at. they did not want us. then, they get mad because we moved to the other side. host: historical context there. ruy teixeira? for a fact that the black population has not always been democratic. it was quite republican.

the republicans freed the slaves. abraham lincoln was a republican. the democrats were associated with jim crow and so on in the south for so many years. things started to turn a bit in the new deal when blacks started moving to the democratic party, particularly in the north. a complete realignment started in the 1960's when the civil --hts law and other reforms that's a reasonable case the republican party left the black population, as the caller says. they did not just decide to pack up and leave. we are where we are now. a lot of blacks like the caller feel the country has still failed them in terms of economic and social integration. they will vote for the party that kamal be at an perfect might better represent their hat, whiles -- t

, might better represent their aspirations. younger blacks feel their situation has not improved much. there is so much more that needs to be done. the democrats seem to be on the right side. in the end, people live in the real world, not the world of rhetoric. host: monticello, minnesota. diane is a republican there. good morning to you. jeremy in kansas. independent. the morning. i was just going to say, in terms of population changes and election results, there's nothing quite like dumping a communitylis on -- ending up with al franken as .he deciding vote on

responsible immigration, that's how we got einstein and some of the smartest minds in history. immigrants vote eight out of 10 for democrats. host: let's check your figure. karlyn bowman, is that correct? guest: it is certainly true that americans have always been of two minds about immigration. they clearly want to help. europe,ation in children's bodies washing ashore, they want to help, but the concerns we've been discussing that many americans have about the fast pace of change in the country are also affecting them. that is what we see in the attitudinal data. when you're in a prominent