border. we are going to win at trade. >> we have got to redefine what politics means in america. we need people from coast-to-coast standing up, fighting back, and demanding a government that represents all of us, not just the 1%. >> [cheers and applause] >> join us live at 9:00 p.m. eastern for election results, candidate speeches, and your reaction. then we will look ahead of the fall battleground states, taking you on the road to the white house on c-span, c-span radio, and c-span.org. >> now, a roundtable looking at the house and senate races in 2016. from today's "washington journal," this is just over an hour. you can also catch it on www.c-span.org. we are taking a look at congressional races with two guests joining us. and nathanenberg

gonzales editor and publisher of the the report. thank you for joining us. let's start with the condition of the senate. rothenberg, what happens comes this november to the senate in your estimation? guest: there is a bit question mark in terms of turnout and what the election is going to be about. the senate class is overwhelmingly republican. this class was elected six years ago, 2010, a very good year for republicans. they elected republicans and those republicans are in a presidential year. can the democrats net the four or five seats to maintain control of the senate? it depends on if they win the white house. the senate is up for grabs. there is differences of opinion.

some people think the democrats have a slight advantage. i would argue that. the senate is in play and questions about the presidential race and donald trump's appeal and hillary clinton's appeal, it is something of a jump off. host: nathan gonzales, if it is four or five, what should people be focused on if there is a change going on? backwards, senator from illinois followed by ron would have the open seat in florida. the only vulnerable democratic senate seat right now is harry

reid's. the rest are offering opportunities for democrats. rob -- new hampshire, we are waiting for, does the playing field grow even more? roy blunt of missouri. trump -- does trump inspire hispanic voters remark -- this talk inspire hispanic voters? i agree with nathan. but the seven states nathan mentioned is most competitive. varied states that are competitive in a presidential election. there is and what overlap.

-- there is an overlap. it is going to have some affect on how the democrats are doing. host: how prepared are these incumbents? guest: the incumbents are doing everything in their control to be ready for reelection. they are putting campaign infrastructure in place. volunteer programs will be in place to utilize volunteers going into the fall. is, what happens that is not within their control? how offended will some voters be because of donald trump? all of them have to form a coalition that includes supporters of donald trump and people who are offended by donald trump because they are in

these competitive states where they can afford to lose republicans and can't come out blasting donald trump. but they also can't embrace him because they will turn off -- guest: two or three of the states are states that donald trump has a scenario on how people improve republican turnout, particularly wisconsin and pennsylvania. nathan is exactly right. trump bringnt does in new voters? then the question is will they continue to vote republican? --t: some of the voters guest: the key voters to watch are the never trump voters. if they come out and they say, i can't vote for hillary or donald trump but i'm still going to vote for the senate, both for the house, republicans may have a bad night. it but if they don't vote at

all, their impact will be tremendous. clinton could get every voter -- every republican voter. she needs democrats to get over the top. this we will talk about further. our guest stuart rothenberg and nathan gonzales joining us. you can as the gentleman questions. 202-748-8000 for democrats. 202-748-8001 four republicans. for independents. will theseve campaigns be even if there are no real connections to be made? guest: that is one of the key things we are watching.

democrats are going to couple everything a republican with donald trump. pat toomey is a donald trump republican. they have a loose enough connection, both running as republicans in the cycle, that is enough to put in a campaign ad and bring up questions. democrats still have work to do. pat toomey must agree with everything donald trump says. democrats have to make that case. republicans have to be further independent. this is a standard playbook. republicans do it when there is republicans do it when there is a democrat in the white house. democrats do it when there is a republican in the white house. large number of senate seats.

most of those kinds of elections occur in midterm elections nonpresidential years. in the midterm, the president is not on the ballot. the only way to express your dissatisfaction is to vote against his party's candidate for the house and senate. presidential years are different. voters have two votes. you can decide donald trump not vote for him, but you can like rob portman in ohio and vote for him. buthave more flexibility you are exactly right. but we are seeing this time, democrats trying to attach donald trump to every republican in the senate. it is somewhere between them using and sad. host: the democratic congressional campaign committee put out it -- put out an ad. leche the adding get your thoughts. [video clip]

donald trump and republicans in congress are built from the same reckless policies. uprepublicans must hold broader abortion restrictions. aswe are not going to fund long as you have the abortions going on in planned parenthood. when mexico since its people, we are bringing drugs, crime, rapists. >> for every valedictorian, 40 ken 700other 100 pounds of marijuana. we have too many mosques in this country. i am for traditional marriage. banhe house voted to same-sex marriage. >> donald trump and the house

built from the same reckless policies. host: your thoughts on the ad? guest: it is fair that they are making a linkage and it is up to the voter to decide if they accept it. what is interesting about it is it is all donald trump soundbites. and is a donald trump ad it takes advantage that the republican party. the party has a poor standing with the voters. donald trumponnect and the republicans in the house, you bring up issues like abortions, mexican's coming across the border with marijuana, this is the kind of thing that could build up in a democratic way. see: mr. gonzales, can you an affect on specific campaigns? caller: with this type of

it can unify. anti-trump message covelli democrats up and down the ballot . advertisement -- the party's ability to target voters online is only increasing. their ability to focus on different groups with messages. message --is type of they will be dozens of this iteration depending on who you are, where you live, and what issues you care about. host: taking your calls. tommy, you are on with both of our guests. caller: good morning.

. understand want anying we don't illegal immigrants. what is wrong with not wanting illegal immigrants? you have to take a stand sometimes. you have to screen who is coming in and who is not. what is wrong with that? hillary is a liar. she has been a liar from day one. she twists everyone's words around. i don't know how anyone could vote for the democrats. all they do is tax. every year, social security send you the thing on how you are working. i am 57 years old. i am down from 35 years of working. spent the last eight years with democrats has had the most tax taking out of my pay all they

know how to do is tax and get handouts to the people who don't want to work. it host: tommy, thank you. take that as you will for the campaign. to tommy'st of all, point, there is a distinction between legal and illegal immigration. it is up to the republicans to make that case. the burden is on them to convince voters there is that distinction and that they favor one, but not the other. that is what politics is about. as to the second point, tommy reflects what we see is a deep distrust among republicans. that is part of the polarization. guest: tommy sounds like the type of person that trumped's message -- that trump's message can resonate. there are people who believe

that the economy is not working in their favor. i keep coming back to a house race in downstate illinois where a democratic congressman was running for reelection. there was a republican named mike boss running. they have footage of him on the floor screaming and throwing papers in the air. democrats thought, this is perfect. we have video that republicans are crazy. but mike ended up winning. -- you can explain it away. it shows now that that message resonated. voterss angry, but the in downstate illinois were angry. it was helping him. [laughter] remindert is a humble that this message -- donald trump's message will resonate.

host: kokomo, indiana. independent line. at ar: i am a senior university. i am barry interest in the midterm election. -- i am very interested in the midterm election. this is something my fellow students talk about is why do we frame the elections in terms of democrats and republicans instead of really hitting on the from a in particular business student. it is about sustainability. i don't care who it is if it's democrat or republican. i want to see problems solved and an end to the gridlock. guest: i think the reason why we

frame those with democrats and republicans because that is the form of government we have. it is a party system dominated by the two parties. it is difficult for third parties to get on the ballot. my don't members get something done? why don't they work together? i don't know that voters are incentivizing the compromise to break gridlock. if there is a republican member compromising with democrats, they are going to get voted out in a primary by a candidate that says, we don't know someone coming to washington to work together, we need someone standing up for the constitution and the president. --hink in some ways, members they have frustration with members getting something done in washington. it is that these members are doing what they were sent her to

do. guest: that is an important point. polarization and washington d.c. certainly exists. in these primaries, you can't go to your own voters and elect me and i will work with hillary clinton. or if you are a democrat, i will find a work -- i will find a way to work with donald trump. voters don't want to hear that. calls all the time and speak to people, why can't they get along? there are americans out there that do one negotiation and compromise in dealing with the big issues. not dealing with the big issues is not moving the country forward. but, boy, people -- way. that is the problem. host: here is troy new york, democrats line. caller: good morning, gentlemen. how are you? i've elected like to say one thing. i am blind.

i am a democrat. and i am a workaholic. i want to get my own things. i am not looking for handouts. i would like to know how many democrats do we need to retake the senate, the house, please? guest: democrats need 30 seats to take the house. that might not sound like a lot, 30 out of 435. but 30 out of a universe of 30, 40, maybe 50 that are competitive is a lots of seats. democrats are trying to do their best to get candidates in place to take advantage of and anti-trump -- an anti-trump wave. they came up short in a couple of key suburban, like in pittsburgh. they had a candidate dropout in michigan state in the before an alternative. -- and looking for an alternative.

input your life on hold order to run for congress is a difficult, a big step. it is easy to say why didn't democrats get someone to run here or there? you're asking for someone to sacrifice a lot for really know certain victory at the end. guest: just one quick point. take metropolitan new york city area that includes districts in the boroughs. let's include the island as well. seat.t an open you have the first district at the end of the aisle and suffix county. those are competitive seats. state toto go way up get a number of competitive districts. that is a good example.

there are a lot of district out there. that they are so partisan one way or the other that the other party can't compete. host: when it comes to house races coming talked about the house tea party. americans for prosperity working against her and now donald trump making robo calls. explain what happened? guest: there are a lot of moving parts. a teaellmers came in with party reputation. a lot of conservatives have turned it back on her. their backs on her. it was the same day the annual march for life can turn -- for life happen. she has tried to cozy up to donald trump and now has its robo call. the other factor is there is a new congressional map.

her congressional was pulled out from underneath her. it was a court ordered legislature to withdraw the district. she represents 50% to two -- he works -- she represents 15% to 16% of the district. candidatelso a third who just lost the senate race in 2014. lost this race in 2016. what is going to happen, one republican member of congress is going to lose this primary. i think it will be viewed as anti-incumbent. guest: can i address that first part of your assessment of that renee ellmers assessment, which is correct? she was not the only one of these tea party antiestablishment republicans. nathan and i remember talking to some of these leaders after that. a lot of these people elected in

2010 ran against washington and continued to beat up on washington and continue to undermine republican legislative leadership. howrs decided, oh, this is congress works. you have to negotiate and trade-off. renee ellmers was cited to me, to both of us as i recall, as a perfect example of someone who ran against washington. but a lightbulb went off. this is how we get things done and pass legislation. for some people, that is a positive transformation. for others, that the problem -- that is the problem. rothenberg & gonzales political report. stuart rothenberg and nathan gonzales joining us. morningfrom utah, good

on the independent line. you are on with our guests. caller: thank you, good morning, gentlemen. what a great topic. i have been wondering in talking with my friends. still have a couple of questions, particularly about the down ballot races. about nothing being done with the exception of the first year of president obama's presidency. and the republicans literally digging in their heels saying, no to everything and no compromise. it has been frustrating. it seems like the tea party did ushered in an era of antigovernment, and they were in the republican party. it did grab a certain amount of the anger, the trump movement

has grabbed an uglier part. strategy, if any of the democrats are planning on using that reasoning to the american regarding, and then specifically regarding the gerrymandering that is gone on with the house district? toutah, we went from three, four -- three years ago, our last democrat was considered a blue dog democrat like bill orton. way in the 1990's, we have not had a democrat for a long time. they did well because and utah, to survive as a democrat, they have to work, compromise with both parties. they were well-liked until a big republican issue came up and boom come out they went. host: colleen, you put a lot out there. thank you.

go ahead. guest: on the obstruction other republicans are extracting. a lot of the republican members leave they have been sent to washington to obstruct. they might use a different word, but they believe that is what the voters in their district want and there are large pockets of voters around the country who do want to approach the president on anything he does -- oppose the president on anything he does. they are going to talk about republican obstructionism, the senate, not giving merrick , thend a fair hearing hearing and the vote he deserves. but democrats will focus on republican obstructionism and try to use that against the incumbents. -- i wantill respond to point out that the republicans could be criticized over the last two years. just want to stop everything

that president obama wants to do. nathan is right. growinge is also a movement on the democratic side like that. the whole bernie sanders message is we have compromised too much and have not been progressing far enough, fast enough. so the kind of bernie sanders that comes to washington seeks a compromise. as far as redistricting, some states are trying to go to a nonpartisan situation. you have the fair districts in florida. there is some effort to this, but we put the politicians in charge and we -- and they don't want to give the power up. not just about how the lines are drawn. there is a broader issue of where people live. people live within communities where you are surrounded by people who agree with things.

,rizona with a nonpartisan map still all but one of the republican members of the arizona delegation are members of the house freedom conference. only sally is not a member. redistricting does not guarantee members who are more moderate mainstream. salinas,y from california, republican line. caller: hi. i am listening to your two guess. either i am a dummy or your two guess our for hillary and the democrats. the republican party has consolidated already. trump has indiana, been getting record turnout for votes.

they are voting for him because there is nobody in the race. was a phantomp that did not exist. democrat voting is down. it is down across the board. there is a civil war going on between hillary and bernie that your guests have not even touched on that fact. all i have been hearing is how bad trump is and how bad republicans are. and i don't really appreciate that. i want your guests to start talking about the democratic side of the election and why they are looking at -- they are looking at losing seats in the senate. and looking at losing seats in the congress. host: tom, thank you. are talking about republican turnout. republican turnout has been up. i don't think all of those republican voters are supporting donald trump. there is some concern that donald trump might be the nominee. piece by harry and

looked at the last six presidential elections where they had open primaries on both sides at the presidential level and look at turnout. out of the six races, three of them -- half of them, the party that have a higher primary turnout won the popular vote. i don't think turnout -- turnout is not a good indicator of what is to come in a general election. well, tom, you are allowed your own preferences, but not allowed your own facts. they are not going to lose senate and house seats. .hey have all the opportunities the public and partly -- the republican party has hardly any. you would get the same response if you talk to microchannel --

mike mcconnell in the senate. the republican have high water marks in the house and senate and vulnerable seats. the republicans won democratic seats and swung democratic seats in 2012. that is a fundamental of politics. it does not mean republicans are worse. it doesn't mean we like hillary clinton. that is a reality. no, it is point is interesting you say republicans have coalesced around donald trump in that the last two presidents, republican presidents of the united states have not endorsed in significantly. he is getting criticism from high profile writers and , so, to just dismiss this and say the republicans have coalesced, trump is getting 80% of republicans. he needs to get 90% to 92%.

he may get there. we are not prejudging it one way or the other. we are looking at what the data say. in terms of the democrats, of course they are divided. we have not brought it up because it has not come up. it does not mean we are ignoring it or intentionally avoiding appeared i am glad you brought it up. the democrats are divided at the moment and it is keeping hillary clinton's ballot test down. 'f you as bernie sanders supporters who are they going to vote for in the general election, hillary clinton or donald trump? they say they are not making that choice because it is going to be bernie sanders. you or i may think that is wrong, but as long as they think that way, it will affect how they answer the survey questions. of course the democrats are divided. but i believe on the basis of doing this for 35 years, and trust me, i have been wrong before, but on the basis of my knowledge in my experience, i believe the democrats will rally behind hillary clinton here it i

think donald trump will help them do that. but the clinton folks in the sanders folks, they have differences in terms of legislative tactics. unless they do that, you will see a race where donald trump is a few points behind. then the question is, can he turn out enough voters and attract independent voters and nonvoters to overtake hillary clinton? that is an "no. the national senate committee took to an ad connecting the senators to hillary clinton. [video clip] >> democrats need to act themselves a question -- can they really support hillary clinton? she is a living history of scandals, lies, and fibs. travel date, china gate -- she

politically attacked sexual harassment victims and pretended she landed under sniper fire. investigations, ruthless, fake packed. hillary clinton, she is the living embodiment of everything people hate about politics. democrat candidates, she is your burden to bear. [laughter] >> i am a real person. host: mr. gonzales, what do you think? guest: that was there he subtle. [laughter] i think subtlety was lost on that. 'sthink that hillary clinton the shining light for the republican party in this election. that is the one thing keeping republicans were having a disaster because she is not popular. she is not quite as unpopular as

donald trump, but her favorability numbers are upside down, means that they are unfavorable particularly in competitive states. we talked about democrats trying to tie republicans to donald trump. this is what republicans are going to do because she is not going to bring voters across the line because of hope and change some of the things we saw in 2008. this is going to be the standard republican attack this year. guest: i would simply add that her problem is not the democrats. they generally like her. thatroblem is republicans feel what the nra see feels in the ad. republican voters do not trust her. -- he is a professional politician. she is a professional politician. is a relatively

weak candidate. the republicans have maybe nominated the one person who can't beat her. no, i don't think she is the ideal candidate for the democratic party. she is what they gave themselves. connecticut,en, thank you for waiting. caller: hi. delauro is a pretty good candidate and we have two good senate candidates in connecticut. i think we are going to do ok in the selection. guest: we don't expect connecticut to be a hot election cycle. blumenthal is a for reelection and kind of struggled against linda mcmahon. but he is going to be fine this year.

august wolf, there is a story where he has come under fire for alleged sexual harassment. so democrats will be fine. guest: connecticut is a good example of how the country has changed. or at least new england has changed. and went in new york to graduate school at the university of connecticut. i am familiar with the state politics. 40 years ago, 50 years ago, 60 years ago -- there were a number of parts of connecticut that were swing a republican. fairfield county portion, vary republican. -- very republican. i remember when a candidate won the new haven district. was at one time a competitive state and voted for liberal republicans. vary -- very

reliably democratic. host: from ashland, massachusetts, this is wayne, independent line. caller: good morning, gentlemen, how are you? thank you for c-span and programming like this because it makes it worthwhile turning on the tv on sunday mornings. i have a question -- what percentage of the electorate will vote strictly not traditionally, not republican, not democrat going with libertarian or alternative parties in the election cycle? hadt: i believe the returns 1% of the vote and the greens got a third of the percentage, something like .36%. there were a handful of write ins. i expect those two parties to get a higher percentage of the vote because the to major party nominees, i will use the word to

describe them, controversial. there are going to be democrats -- hillary is too close to corporate america. i am want to look for somebody whoconveys my sense complements find social economic justice issues and i will go green. there will be some people who are more free market republicans that support donald trump, his positions on trade come his positions on things like social security and medicare and entitlements. i can't support him. so they will go libertarian. i would not be surprised to see those votes double, which seems to me to be a pretty big change. 10%, 20%ey could get of the vote -- i don't see it. there have been early poll showing gary johnson getting a higher percentage. if they were to get 2% or 3%, i

could see it. in any case, these nonmajor parties are hoping to make some ground little by little to become major parties. guest: the one thing i can foresee happening, that the media gets wrong, is the assumption that every libertarian voter is coming out of the republican's pocket or every democrat is coming out of the or -- or every green voters coming out of the democrat's pocket. and we are doing the math the monday morning quarterbacking, you don't dismiss and say the third-party voters belong here. i think it is wrong. were third parties could make an impact is the united states and races. in new hampshire, there will be libertarian on the ballot. i expect that to be a close race between those senators. nationally, the third parties

may not make up the difference, but it could have an impact on the fight for the senate. 202-748-8001 four republicans. 202-748-8000 for democrats. 202-748-8002 for independents. host: hello. i don't want anybody to think i was faking a party. [laughter] as a conservative republican, i really love the ad in the that democratic house and senate races in the reasons are that all the issues that democrats think our winners for them, we conservatives think are losers because there's was emphasizing republicans against immigration. of course, code word for a limit will -- for illegal immigration.

the anti-muslim was code word for terrorists coming across with the obama bringing in syrians. theave evidence recently at mexican border of actual terrorists coming in on the watch list. one, and was the big the reason i would rate republicans low in congress is land parenthood funding -- pla nned parenthood funding. the reasons show in this ad, republicans and christians are mainly against killing babies that planned parenthood and abortion and all of those factors are the hot button issues for causing us republicans and conservatives to turn out and vote against the democrats because the democrats

support the illegal voting. they support bringing all that in. therek the two guests need to look at the analysis of what really are the issues in this race. big government come out of control spending -- big government, out of control spending. guest: i like the call because it is a window into what the election is about. caller said all the issues that they, meaning the democrats, think our winners, we think are losers for them. that is what this issue is going to be about. who is right on this? who is on the right side of the issue is with the voters? particularly with swing voters. i know how conservative republican think and i know what liberal democratic voters think, but it is the swing voters that

will decide who is right on the issues. the second question is, is each party touching the right issues to bring up voters, to energize voters, and to attract swing voters? it is about which issues are winners for who and is the lesson going to be about minimum wage and trade, or is it going to be about planned parenthood funding? that is what we look at. i hope we don't begin with a preconceived notion of this. we want to see what the voters think. guest: planned parenthood and donald trump isn' a fascinating example of how difficult this election is to put into a box. donald trump deviously throughout the campaign said, i don't like abortion, but planned parenthood does good things. am sure does not sit

well with coleman, but the part about abortion does sit well. donald trump, you cannot put him in a box are. it shows people are projecting on donald trump what they want. his supporters tend to ignore some statements he has made and things they disagree with and focus on what they agree with. host: stuart rothenberg an nathan gonzales -- and nathan gonzales of the rothenberg & gonzales political report. tell us about this report. guest: it goes back to the 1980's. we always covered house and senate campaigns in details. we need 150 to 200 candidates election cycle, and the usually come in for an hour. we start with dana birth, what you do for a living, what was her up reading like, where did you go to to -- what was your up

bringing like, where did you go to school? we go through all of these things. how much money did you race? what are your positions on issues? at the end of the hour, we get a good idea of who these strong candidates are and who the week candidates are. we have been doing that for many many years. host: you look at all of these races as well. guest: we focus on the ones that are most competitive, but we are constantly evaluating how safe or vulnerable they are. we get into this notion thetimes that ratings in year or spring, early summer that they are seconds set in st. and theycle goes on date up with us in a specific position, we change our ratings and overall projection. websiteu can go to the

if you're interested in seeing the work of these two gentlemen. from charlotte, good morning. caller: yes, good morning. i am calling in reference to the actual context of what the race for the 2016 messaging will be for the presidency and for the 2016 senate races. i think thatdent, where we are in the country is the need for an investment. i think that for a person such as myself, my husband, and many of my family members, we are black. we are highly educated. we have a good family structure. we believe in volunteer and philanthropy. withtechnology coupled also i think an intersection of

society that we now live in. i heard the german from texas speak about --gentlemen from the abortionbout issue did not come for them, the gay-rights did not come for them, and yet they have somehow blamed the immigrant. they have somehow blamed regulations. high-tech invest in a manufacturing infrastructure that will bring the job, that will bring back and create new and better jobs that were lost from just a technological and innovative change. host: charlotte, thank you very much. we will let our guests respond. guest: i am not sure yet what the election messaging will be xcept that we- e

will get the usual knee-jerk red meat. the democrats are for higher taxes, more spending, changing the culture of the country. that will come from the republicans. from the democrats, it will be the republicans want to kind of or eliminate the games of the last eight years -- gains of the last eight years. they will point to the job growth of the last few years and talk about obamacare as a huge step in the right direction. we will get the red meat kind of stuff, but it seems to me that charlotte's call with demand a more thoughtful approach by the parties -- would demand a more thoughtful approach by the parties. i am afraid, charlotte, you are not going to get that kind of election. you are going to get a lot of

name-calling, a lot of red meat, a lot of personal attacks on donald trump and hillary clinton. you may not like that, but you are looking for a more serious discussion, and you will have to work long and hard to weave your way through all of the red meat out there to find out what the parties i really stand fo . what is this election about in messaging, that the news in the day will help dictate what this election is about. early summer, late fall, are we talking about foreign policy? are there terrorist attacks here or overseas? how is the economy doing? what is on the evening news is going to force the candidates and the nominees to answer to those things. that is hard to predict what

that news is going to be. the candidates will have their prepackaged messages, but the news will push them in a certain direction. host: california and other states have their primary on tuesday. a profile looking at the attorney general against loretta sanchez. talk about this contest but also that this is known as an open primary system and what difference it might make as far as who ends up the victor. 2012, before the california moved into a top two primary system. all candidates are running together, republicans and democrats. the top two finishers move on november. the field is so weak that there is a high chance harris and sanchez finish in the top two and you have to democrats on the ballot -- two democrats on the ballot. proponents of the system will say this is an upper that will

force the democrats to appeal to republican voters who don't have a candidate, and that will force the moderation. i don't know that the california election results have seen a more moderate delegation, but that is the goal of proponents. others will say republicans are disenfranchised and they will not even vote in that election. the bottom line is the senate seats will stay democratic. here is is the front runner, but it is not completely guaranteed. guest: i think nagin is right. i have not seen compelling signs that the system has produced members who are more pragmatic or bipartisan or less partisan, but that is what the goal is, to for sanchez and harris in this case in the runoff assuming they are both on the ballot for november to appeal to the republican voters. presumably to do that, they have

to move to the center. the question is, do they do that during the campaign and then after the election, returned to their normal position or not. host: good morning to john. caller: thanks for taking my call. i wanted to ask mr. stuart rothenberg a question because . the republican vote, is there a chance democrats can win this seat? also these seats in new hampshire. maybe the democrats may take it over. overall, i have been in this country for a long time, and i can tell you as a republican, they have lost everything that they stand for because what usually to me, it is talk show hosts like rush limbaugh or sean hannity took over the republicans, and this is the consequences that the republicans used to stand.

i got to this country in 1980. i remember ronald reagan used to stand for something, but what we see today, it is amazing that a republican cannot even say something about donald trump, which is every time that he speaks, he is insulting the people. now what makes me so angry most of it is when he is attacking this judge just because he is spanish. there is a lot of republicans who have a great idea in this country, but i don't know what is going to happen really. i don't think they will exist anymore because the way that he gets away -- you see what happened with the reporter that she is insulting the reporter and everybody is not saying anything. donald trump, one thing i noticed is he cannot take the real questions. the reporters are seeing that, and they don't follow up the questions that they are supposed to follow up. host: john, thank you.

i think he called you old. [laughter] right.and john is i can't do anything about that. i wish i could. if you come up with something to reverse the aging process, i would be grateful. let me deal with pennsylvania first and then maybe new hampshire. nathan has written about pennsylvania extensively. it is a good one to look at because it is one of those states that donald trump says he can over perform. you can take a competitive state the republicans always have to talk to and then always lose it in presidential races over the last 20 years, but he can change that by bringing in white working-class voters, whites who have no college degrees, and he will bring them to the republican party, and they will vote for him and presumably pat toomey, who is being challenged by katie mckinsey.

she is the favorite of the establishment. extensive background in the environment and community in the state and nationally. ok, so donald trump's theory is he can appeal to voters in northern pennsylvania. westernlking to and he can bring out new republican voters, and they will vote for him. he will carry the state and they will presumably vote for pat toomey. i guess we are waiting to see whether that works aror not. pat toomey is a different republican in that he knows what state he is in. virginia on west the issue of guns and ammunition to moreng to reach out swing democratic voters in the southeastern corner of the state. we will see if that works, if that substance is image -- so

ftens his image. hear donaldmay trump said this, what do you have to say? that is difficult because he wants to talk about what he wants to talk about, not what donald trump is talking about. a tossup. whatever you think it is a competitive race. donald trump will have some impact on this. host: there is a story about katie mckinsey about her college career. can you explain that as well? guest: sure. republicans are going after her on how she has characterized her college career. she is one of 10 children depending on the event and situation, republicans have evidence that she said she was the first in her family to attend college. they are bringing that now. she said we meet with candidates all the time. we met with her on january 26 this year before the primary.

i looked back at my notes to see what she told us, and she told us that she was the first in her family to attend a four-year college, which is a distinction the campaign is not trying to make. what you told us in our private largely off the record meeting this similar to what we are seeing quickly, but there is enough evidence out there for republicans to make hay that she was not as clear in that. that her iould add is on the record. it is always on the record. guest: we have the notes to tell us to go back and look. will this make a difference in the race? probably not, but it is i think a that's katie mcginty has to show she is written for prime time. this is a much bigger stage and she has never been on before. there will be more scrutiny. i am sure this is not the

only thing republicans will attack her for. we have five months to go. if i can point to one more thing john said, he was talking about the lack of criticism, like a republicans criticizing donald trump, and i think this is important. right now, the republican grassroots is upset with the establishment for not listening to them. now you have these republican officials where they come out and denounced donald trump, and they will be accused of not listening to republican primary voters who are now on the way to nominating him, and so i think these republican officials were leaders are in this tough bind where personally they are offended by donald trump but they are listening to voters. host: mike from houston, texas, republican line. caller: thank you. we heard how donald trump is insulting people, let's talk about how democrats insult

people. superdelegates. superdelegates is a form of insulting the average voter. number two, the public education system is a government-run monopoly. tell me what city, what major city is a case study for how inner-city schools are run? visit baltimore -- is it baltimore? i have two siblings who are teachers and they cannot breathe because they are teachers. guest: i will take the superdelegates. of the get to the end democratic nomination process, hillary clinton will have received more votes, more pledged or elected delegates, and more superdelegates that bernie sanders. even if you were to take superdelegates out of the system, she would hav still be e nominee. superdelegates are a point of contention and frustration with bernie sanders supporters, but

she is winning no matter what kind of metric you use. she is winning. guest: to the other point about education, i would say this. we ares tell people that at the bottom of the political food chain. handicappers. we are trying to figure out who is winning, losing, what races are competitive, what races you should bother to watch if they are not serious contests or serious threats. i understand you feel strongly about education. everybody who calls in here feels strongly about the issues, republican or democrat. our job is not to tell you you are right or wrong of the issues. we don't take positions on the. we just try to figure out who is going to win. one thing you need to consider and the democrats who call in need to consider is who is going to decide each election, and what do they think? republicans, i know you think, and i know what a liberal democrat thinks, by they going

to decide the election? in texas, the republicans are going to decide the election, so you are in good shape. in other states, it may be the independents. that is all we are saying. kim: texas, democrats line, is next. caller: hi. i don't want to ramble. is that the nuts and bolts of this between republicans and democrats, and at the expense of sounding rude, i don't want to be rude, but everybody knows you only get one little sound burst to say what is on your mind. is aging topoint of this 55 years old and we are not going to use our mental debate?s like having a you don't know how democrats feel, and you don't know how republicans feel. old on. those issues we have been

waging war on since the 1980's after reagan came in and screwed a lot of stuff up, but that is in the past. hold on. what is at the heart of this is a biblical fight over protestants and catholics. if people would get online and read a book, go back to the beginning, and look at the history. y'all manipulated the politics. finger.am pointing my pursuing injustice, you become in justice sometimes . host: thank you. guest: several night owls out there. a viewer from twitter asked about your success rate as far as predictions. what has been your history as far as how you have done? guest: senate races, we have been really well. our last but in 2010, vision for the house was a republican gain of 55-65, was

it? people don't we were nuts. republicans gained 62 or 63 seats. on individual races, did we miss? yes. we thought heidi was going to lose in north dakota, but she won narrowly in north dakota. our election numbers for the house, it would probably be 95%, but somewhat? any idiot can get 95%. all you have to do is pick incumbents. we are looking at the competitive races. we never tallied up the numbers, but you can go back and look. we do well. guest: some of the value we produce is bringing who are the challenges, whether people running an open seas, who will be the future lawmakers? the ratings get the most attention and are the sexiest of this, but in some ways, there is so much polling. it is less helpful information. the off your analysis in trying

to get the voters an idea of where this race is headed, where are the fundamentals is where we are most o helpful. host: stuart rothenberg and >> c-span's washington journal live every morning with news that is important to you. mental health in the united states and congressional efforts to extend the mental health act. and from the christian science monitor, linda heldman -- feldmann on the republican trution to donald