-- when he back those supporters. -- winning back the supportive. i think labor is going to have to look at what is going to do to get those voters back. end, the prime minister gets a win, maybe by it willlest margin, also be clear most polls seem to indicate the majority of tory voters will have voted against him and he will have therefore one on the basis of a coalition of largely non-tory. >> i don't think so. just over a year ago, the nation voted for the prime minister. he won a mandate.

increase the number of mps. if the majority of tory supporters voted against him on this most important issue, people would say, but mandate does that left? >> we have to see how that tory vote falls. he have to leave the country on the course to things is right. i think he will continue to that. -- they know very well thought come tomorrow morning, our main concern is our leader. the labor win, it would only be a humiliation for david cameron, will be a generation for jeremy

corbyn. could you survive? -- he survive? >> i think there are people who would do anything to get him out of it. he felt he had to keep the party together. he's been saying all the things about the eu that i have been saying. he thinks it can be reforms. i think there will be pressure now. countryn the end, it is more of overall, the party. i don't think that will happen. the party still has to change its views. figure b a lot of questions asked about the way he came. clearly hasn't been listen to. , we haven'tir heads been listen to. you called us ignorant.

you called us lazy. they are fed up. > leadertory party -- next of the tory party? >> i would like to see them go to the election, keep his word and deliver. in the been quite crazy terry party -- tory party. i think we believe you. podium. back to the studio. >> let's take a look at the state of play. turnout, 69.2%. leave is ahead.

you might say that does not tell us very much. counts, itnto the looks as if scotland is coming up for remain, but not the kind of numbers that remain might need to be certain of victory. forooks as if wales voted leave and that is not what we expected. northern is trained to an interesting picture. let's see what is happening there. -- northern ireland is turning into an interesting picture. let's see what is happening there. constituency with turnout and low 50%. -- in low 50%. no surprise they voted to remain.

expect, campaigning for the electorate to remain as part of the union, quite a convincing majority. just to reiterate the interesting anomaly that is northern island, different constituencies here. it is all about one final declaration we are a few hours away from that. >> thank you very much. did you pick up what he was asking? >> first one we have seen below 50%. almost nine in england. -- none in england. northernisland and -- ireland is not producing high turnout.

it is a three have been one victory for remain. 3-1 victory for remain. >> one result from the city of london, i think what i did not say, until we get the big london result, and the big inner-city result, it will be hard to read into how the remain focused turning out. the city of london, is not simply the bankers living above shops, and more mixed population. was 3-1 for remain. london not be quite as much higher if it is in the rest of england. if that were true, and it has been rainy today, that would

spell bad news for remain. i've just been told that the prediction is that once worth a 65% remain. if that was true, what would you read? >> that is no less than they would have hoped for, does not change anything. there we go. by several people. the passionate campaigner for us to leave. a columnist and journalist and comedian, you may need the last bit if you are the remain party. far? do you make so i'm having real deja vu to

the night of the general election campaign in 2015 only on trusted in thinking it would go this way. at the night progresses, it affected could potentially go another way. whatever happens tonight, this could be a big aftermath. i we have a very divided country. if it is the case, if remain wins but is held up by scotland and london, we definitely have a divided country with major consequences from parties, particularly the labour party. >> this time in the night, lead could win. leave could win. it could be that everyone except the morning to that. morning.up in the clearly, the rest of the world does not want us to leave. are you a little bit worried?

>> the rest of the world will not go against the british government. if we leave, and i think we can, then the rest of the world will recognize that the british people have spoken. democracy.ize it is not to that all of america ntse britain tuesday -- wa person to stay. many commitment and women support the british right to voice their opinion. it is simply not the case. obama is not going to be president for much longer. and whoever takes over will find themselves in this new world where we could leave potentially. i'm sure they will do with it. -- deal with it. >> people talk about labor

voters, angry and dissolution. voting to go out and -- to go out and you have every economic experts and this will be a disaster. the people voting out because they are disgruntled. >> is interested. one of the things i've enjoyed about this campaign. i was out a couple days with a tour activist saying we are doing great and labor country. labour supporters are passionate on the whole about leaving. they have been let down by the party leadership. he seems to have gone back on that point of view. >> i think the issue with the labour party and working-class disconnection goes back way and i thinky corbyn

a lot of the acute dissatisfaction, a lot of people in these postindustrial parts of the country, there are bigger .conomic dissatisfactions they have seen their towns and cities drained away from them. there are cultural issues as well. i think people have seen integration as the lightning conductor for a lot of their dissatisfaction. to end, it is easy to stir up a lot of division and fear about things, getting a play to solve it is a lot more difficult. -- plan to solve it is a lot more difficult. >> when david cameron decide to have his referendum, would you make what has led to this? we are clearly getting a message. evening,oint in the let's knock out what the message is.

what do you think is behind it? home orer leave snakes if it is a slight victory for david cameron, the message is start. i agree, this has been a long time coming. electioneron's great architects says you can't fasten a paid on market today -- fatten a pig on market day. i think has to do with how we do our politics about people not feel listen to. i think the great tragedy personally is that leaving the eu will not solve the problems. if remain wins, i think it is an urgent task to work out why that prosperity is not being shared. by people feel they don't have prospects and are not sharing

with what the southeast has. >> the eu has clearly been the root cause. look at youth unemployment. it is atrocious. must honorable we will be. -- vulnerable we will be. fore will be discussing it a while. let's go to damon green she was halfway across the english channel. andering what will awaken -- way to france. that's tohim when he -- gets to france. cabins andp in their fast asleep, it seemed a fairly clear-cut picture and would see

a beach of concession. they will wake up in the morning and possibly to a very different picture arriving in france further away than the continent has been in their lifetime. as a frenchman, how does this seem to you? -- it is the democracy process and we have to accept that. prefer remain. company has come from britain's connection with europe? you're bound to take british people to france and bring french people to the u.k.. without this relationship, could your company thrive? we would still exist and i'm

sure there would still be a relationship. company is all about linking the united kingdom with the competent -- confident. -- confident. continent. could it separate? it would be a strange to lead together. -- leave together. they come and go and use our ferry. national access to france. all that would change and we would make things more complicated. >> 53 much.

unscientific thing i did in the bar, it was roughly 3-1 in favor of remaining. many of these people have built lives in france and travel frequently. there is little passion on either side. no one standing up the meeting to -- demanding to remain or leave. thank you very much. 3:00, wer quarter past are very close to the biggest political story of our lifetime. leaving the eu. we can't say it will happen. it is very much on the 50-50 line. leave is doing very well. look at the state of play around the country. turnout 59.1%.

into the predicted when post there. can you explain that? >> we know that the electorate is 46 million. we think the turnout is about 71-72%. that means we expect 34 million votes entitled to be cast. in the way post is quite clearly the first side to get to happen that. milliong just from 17 is the likely winning post. leave have 15.5 million votes to go. the direction may look. >> a long way from fed. -- from bed. come out, we will be in hong kong -- coming up, we will be in hong kong.

that once worth is imminent. know how thed to big london voters will vote. look to what he says. to the left of the stage. we are not ready. we were on the cusp of getting some sense. the critical question, turnout and remain the torches. -- majorities. plenty happening there. of --s happening talk what is happening? >> a lot of people betting on a remained vote. the wind is against remain. i think we have seen it. there is a way to go. the moment of clarity has moved into view.

some people have seen enough and are moving on. if you look at the top four screens on this terminal, you will see the far left, that is measuring the price of gold. you can see it is dropped. the next greatest the pound against the dollar. the next screen across, it has fallen last but the euro has fallen also. crisis --access then so what does it say about the european project? before the market reaction will get? this is the prediction for stock market in london. they are betting that that market is going to open down just over 5%. the market in germany expected

to open down. these are very large movements inthe market in currencies and e seeing is a traditional flight to safety. not a panic, but high anxiety. >> can you give us a picture of what tomorrow will hold its hase has one -- if leave one -- won? crash territory? so many predictions. anyway of assessing what will happen? >> there is a consensus so what you are likely to get this a very large, significant fall in the value of the pound. the logic behind it is pretty controversial. iferson decides to leave -- britain decides, it will lead to a time of political and economic uncertainty and it will be an element of calamity. investors picking up spending

money will hold off the decision. you will see exports impotent thinking, what happens next in terms of trade that i'm going to secure. imagine this from the point of view of either a supermarket important things in the present they will have to pay in the point of view of a german car manufacturer sending cars to the united kingdom. the value of the pound is significant. it will have an enormous impact that will reverberate way beyond the computer screen. i don't think there's any way of knowing quite how the market will react. certainly, the consensus, we about, he felt the fall of probable. >> we still going to the markets

and borrow money on a regular basis, as you know, what is likely to be the impact of the next week and what we are paying for that money and could it, yes georgervis byrne -- osborne, is there clear logic? >> not yet. i think what you will see as the bank of england and the treasury are on the sidelines monitoring what happens next. they come i think, will not be inclined to intervene. what you are seeing is super the market prices changing. what we are concerned about is if they see sharp searches. -- lurches. if buyers and sellers retreat. it has the power to intervene, has foreign currency reserves it

could use, it can raise interest rates if the teams that necessary. you have to consider two things, the pound, if it falls significantly against a series isisnservancies -- curtis, -- currencies, prices would rise. -- a period, we would notice other prices going too. going into the campaign, the economic perspective has been clear. the short-term perspective would not look good if britain leads -- please. -- leaves. >> a few you results, glasgow has gone with remain.

calling can you bring us colin, can you bring us up-to-date? >> the result is a bigger victor remain.ictory for turnout at 67% is reasonably respectable. to falkirk now. >[indiscernible]

thank you, ladies and gentlemen. >> no surprise. respectable turnout. does the fall into the pattern of scotland not turning out? >> exactly the scottish pattern. turnout 4% down from the general election. the victory for remain, fine. but not as big as we might have expected. better news for the leave side. >> i'm so close to speaking to you. [laughter] the referendum held on the 23rd of june, 2016, after the referendum act,

and having been authorized to do so by the regional counseling officer, i could buy give notice that i have certified the following, the total number of 158,018.ounted 118,463.ber for remain believe, 39,421. , --cted >> remain has one and one big -- won big. as i try to work out what that means. maybe we can start with you. what do you make of that?

>> much higher. we talked the general election has london being another country. remain doing very well. better than we expected. can london make up the deficit? inwe had of the results come for places which were clearly in the leave camp. >> this is the picture so far. love turnout in scotland. remain has not had -- low turnout in scotland. and we have had high turnouts in leave. and now we have a couple results for remain. this will tell us a story. many of those groups of people that we expect more likely to

support remain. professionals, there is of the country with special. look at oxford. lambeth. deliver higher shares for remain. arease all those gray that we think are going to both for remain but have not yet declared. areas wherethose there are high proportions of veterans, similar picture. proportions of graduates, similar picture. more likely to vote remain. there will be a picture margin. lots of young people. areas with lots of him people. those areas that have declared for remain but are still lots of areas that we expect to declare for remain yet to declare and

those areas are most people with passports, all of the london area. that is where we are expecting remain to be very well. thatwere not for the fact scotland was not turning out, with those leave areas having have to not, facing a very different picture. it could change as these other areas start to declare. >> we have not heard from many of the cities. still a lot of action to go. let's have a quick word with judy. welcome back to the remain party. as you can see, a possible >> couple of big cheers -- a couple of pictures. the remainr in

campaign. saying that it is getting a bit risky. -- frisky. they were focusing intensely on emerging the and last half hour as being key. how much that turnout and how far money goes. that is the story of the party so far. people staring intensely at the screens. >> think you very much. certainly getting interesting. people,, the betting markets that seem to have decided.

us who thought it would go to the wire. we knew it would be incredibly close. it is clearly going to go cry to the edge. if you campaign one way the other, you're surrounded with the people who share your view. we are waiting to see what happens in the big city. >> let's ponder for a moment. it is clear that it is probable that leave will win. what does the prime minister do? does he want to stay?

is a credible in the long-term? how bad do you think the market and the economic impact can be? if breakfast tomorrow is leave -- >> i think we have already seen an indication. fell dramatically. we will see what will be happening before the results are clear. i don't think it is a pretty picture. all the indicators have been saying that, if we vote to leave, there will be consequences in the economy, in the -- and the treasury and the bank of england will be standing by. we are told there is some pause over investments in terms of concern that investors had if we voted to leave. we still remain hopeful we are going to vote to stay.

whatever the outcome, i can see the other mps have been coming forward and say that it must be david cameron that stays on, whatever the outcome. >> he may well be steadying the ship. we still imagine him the party leader. and you had some choice words to say about boris not being the one you want driving a home late at night. boris leadinge the recovery? >> i cannot even imagine it. >> we have been talking about this all evening. if't one truth that, even you win, the country is never going to be quite the same again. i have had this anonymously close vote and people are incredibly disillusioned with

the way things are going. amber: it is an extraordinary night. that is a point we have been try to make the whole campaign, that this is an extraordinary opportunity to reform -- to the europeanope, union. but the fact that it is very close doesn't mean that the vote wasn't important. it means that we had to have this argument. we knew it was going to be close and it has been close for years. some people have this rumbling to satisfaction about the european union. >> was about immigration? amber: it was a lot more than that. on the core of it, people know what was on the ballot paper. more things would inevitably be packed into it. but we had to have a referendum. it in you make offers on

the next few weeks? one of the things i think him if we do vote to stay, which i sincerely hope we do, one of the things we have got to do is demonstrate to people why it is in their interest, and not just in the interest of what people call it relates or experts. one of the things we committed in the manifesto was making sure that more money goes in the areas of higher immigration. we have to deliver on that some people feel the benefit. 55%, whichyou win isn't particularly likely, but let's a you did, realistically, it's not going to be it. -- her it's immigration amber: i accept it in terms of working out what the questions are that were raised and the relationship within the european union that the country would like to see better. we got to lean into that.

>> thank you very much for coming in to join us. we said earlier in the evening that one of the places that we are watching keenly and awaiting the results because he could impact onnificant them is posted also, which is where a lot britain's live -- is ol, which is where a lot of people live. int: there were not a lot of cheers here when the early results came through. the of the -- most of british ex-pats that live in spain have voted to stay in. alex, why is it important for you to stay in the eu? am english and a spanish lawyer. a leave vote would cause an anonymous amount of uncertainty

for our clients and our business. we would see the pound slumped wouldt the euro, which develop a lot of uncertainty. i think it would be bad for my personal business and my lifestyle here in spain. are an: danielle, you accountant. you are building a house here in spain and you commit to gibraltar every day. so you've got a lot to work -- to worry about. >> very high. it may mean that i don't have a years.hin the next two it also means i can't pay for my house, which is half built. issue.e also is a big in gibraltar, we get paid in pounds and then we bring our money over into spain and spend it. geraint: what have even saying to people back home? i know you get some family members who you had to convince you?te remain, haven't what sort of things have even telling them and what have they been saying to you as to why

they are thinking about or were thinking about it a different way? >> the main argument for them has been immigration. i have done a lot of research for myself because i like to be well-informed. so i have been able to counteract their arguments. so hopefully, they change their votes. geraint: just tell me from a personal point of view, is there a chance at the moment you might still wake up tomorrow morning -- later this morning and come you know, your status, your legal status here is completely different. it's kind of a worrying thing from a personal point of view. >> yes. it causes a lot of worry and concern, not just for myself, but also for a lot of ex-pats the live at here in spain. whether we will require visas to come into spain, to live here. we will have the pound-euro issue. so if we receive pensions or salary in pounds, that will be

an issue. and also, a lot of people who live here can plug into the spanish health service. we're not sure whether we will still be hot for those rights. geraint: and what about the prospect of the spanish government behaving in a vengeful way or a vindictive way post british brexit? >> the possibilities are quite high. ago, they caused massive delays at the border. lady for 10 hours was try to get out of gibraltar. her children were staying here in spain. i don't think they are closable, but they will make it so difficult across and free movement across the border that it might as well be shut. geraint: what about to the

tension out here? it is pretty subdued out here. back to you. tom: thank you. we said over the last hour or so that we are now literally hanging on every result from london because that may give us an indication whether the remain is turning out in enough force to counter the effects of places like the northeast, which are quick -- which are clearly in large part for leave. -- >om larger majority are for remain then -- then we might've expected. that encapsulates the problem. way of kind ofny getting a sense of whether the majorities in london are big enough or you haven't shifted

from the 50/50 position you were in a while ago? i think that's right. the london does have an impact on the overall pattern. even in scotland, because although scotland will vote for remain, it has voted remain by a less large number of votes than we expected. tom: maybe it is a little bit higher than we have seen elsewhere. allegra, i guess the truth of a tale of twoget

cities. this is a tale of two countries. allegra: indeed. they were really down, i say about an hour, hour and half ago. if you look at our newer miracle tally, technically speaking, remain is in the lead. things are zigzagging, crisscrossing all night. don't think the results have so far been catastrophic. the one that has been really that is newcastle. earlier in the evening, that was big one. be switchingill off their mobile phones and areg on social media and we on a knife edge year. but that is what is happening.

nina: absolutely right. with every twist and turn, clearly this story is in lincoln it isn't over yet one way or the other. the twitter has spikes. you can see there was enhanced activity during the time when the opens -- the polls opened. we had a big spike. then it went a bit flat. after that, the results started to come in. more and more conversation despite the fact that we are well into the night now. nina: who is being tough about most question mark borst johnson, such a key figure in the leave campaign -- about most? , such a key figure in the leave campaign. >> here are some of the tweets being sent.

celebrities getting involved, too. nina: ellen not holding back there. >> everyone is changing their view. we are seeing big changes on the betting market. anonymous sums are being that on leave right now and the off is collapsing. there are still bits of twitter left.

social media, in this campaign, especially in comparison to the general .lection you take the last election, there was the poll over the age of 44. the twitter is disproportionately people who are younger with university degrees. facebook is more representative. twitter, there are people feeling dazed and confused. skiing watching the tv -- tv screen and it does not match the tally. thet had been twitter with -- if the results had come from twitter, the result had been greater than 50. facebook actually can be far more effective if you are trying to reach a far broader section

of the publishing. nina: the campaigns in the conversation on twitter and facebook are at times very demoralizing. >> this has been a campaign full of vitriol. we've seen death threats and acts of violence. as a country, we talk in a way we wouldn't normally speak to each other in real life. i have to say, i look at my peoplek page and i see in london voting struggle to remain. a deeply divided and fragmented nation. it is finding its expression on social media and in pretty disturbing ways. nina: absolutely. in, we willts come still be left with the situation that it is a divided country, whatever the results. on election point night, there were many big stories, a lot of which of course was what was going on in scotland with the smp's total

triumph. the story tonight, expected to go in a major way for remain. but the turnout is a factor. and recommendations have already begun between the smp and the labour party, as to whether the smp could have done more. everywhere you look, there is a different kind of pause. the turnout is much smaller than we thought it would be. and we are waiting to find out if london will turn out incident -- in sufficient numbers for remain. so plenty to talk about. robert is still on abington green. i don't know where we start at this point in the evening. except to say that it is imminently possible that we are leaving the european union. robert: is imminently possible, as you say. we might talk about the consequences of that in a minute. but whatever happens, we are

.itnessing an earthquake the result is highly unlikely to be decisive in favor of remain. the prime minister will be sitting in 10 downing street n knowing pretty much the best he could hope for is a very narrow victory, and wondering whether he is facing his job in the circumstances. because what we will have wet -- vast waves in this country voting against him in the most important issue of our age. tom: one of the things we haven't talked about very much this evening is this notion that you've got a very euro house of commons. we don't really have any idea which of the many models available we want. thealked a little bit about economics and how that might play out. how do the politics play out?

does david cameron stay? how do you think it stays it -- it plays out? it is inconceivable that david cameron could stay in the circumstances. simply because voters wouldn't the kind to negotiate of out, however vague you think it is, they would want because he has been so passionately in favor of in. it is one of the many reasons why it is literally inconceivable that, if we vote for out, that he can stay in office. my own view would be, however, that this would not be a rushed negotiation, harley because you could not rush a replacement for leader of the tory party or, indeed, as prime minister. i would expect him to stay until the tory conference, to work at who will be the candidates. mp will have to choose a couple of candidates that would have to

be put to tory party members. that would take some time. you have heard from joe that there have been extraordinary falls already in the valley of the pound. so it doesn't look like a clear remain victory. if we vote to leave, the pound will plunge tomorrow. big institutions will have been taking big positions in the last few days. there will be massive losses. i would expect bank of england to reassure the markets. but during this period of turmoil, we would want some period, youd, for a are expecting the prime minister and the chancellor to stay. absolutely necessary to put together a government that would negotiate a credible believe. we are talking about probably come in the circumstances of a leave the mike cameron stang office no longer than the next tory party in september.

one of the things i did want to ask you, someone who was a long time, how do you bridge the extraordinary golf between the passion to stay within the european union of london, because we are seeing really high percentages for remain in london compared to the rest of the country. >> there is variation even within london. know, we saw the results of the narrow election. i think issue we are now facing is whether the weight of london is enough to outweigh everywhere else. robert: the issue of what the

results will be tomorrow, right now, where is your money? >> it is beginning to look like leave. or at least a thin majority for remain. very, verytions are a, both -- we would probably have a bloodbath in the financial markets. a lot of investment hasn't happened. people have been waiting for the air to clear. the economy to bring down quite badly in the short run. in the long run, the endless negotiation, uncertainty, something we've been wondering about israel. -- is real. the labour party has performed dismally. how that will resolve itself, we don't know.

united, but it wasn't enough. robert: your party was in favor of the referendum. >> no, we weren't in favor of this referendum during we have always taken a -- referendum. we have always taken a purist view. we advised camera not to have a referendum. had we been in a continued coalition. robert: is that right? making this distinction is making a constitutional change is that it needs a referendum to resolve it. robert: very thanks. tom: thank you very much. you may have seen on your screen

a short moment ago that at -- it actually was 50%-50% for a brief moment. lee,liverpool, if i sorry let's bring you in for a moment. results.ool, important than we wouldess have expected on a 50%-50% outcome. so it looks for the moment towards leave. tom: jane, can we come back to you? we will well remember this. sunshine when led the day, speech. project fear. but did it work? in your view, why not if it hasn't?

like leave islook edging ahead tonight. that really leaves the question after weather project fear really fell on flat ears. one of the things we did was studied what really does motivate. list theers did not economy at all. that is not an issue that resonated with them. the leave campaign had the advantage on that message. it is also the case, when you inlyze those votes statistical modeling terms, those people who were going to vote leave, they didn't vote on the economy, like all the analyses we have done, the one thing that didn't matter. , not shifting votes. for remain, there were shifting

voters, but not for leave voters. the balance between hope and fear and in what did and didn't have an impact? jane: we asked people if they thought the remain campaign had focus more on fear or -- what we see is, yes, very match, the remain campaign was by far a shame are based on fear, playing on people's fears, and that tiny percentage of 16% thinking that the remain campaign had a hopeful message. started this you discussion, the idea has always been that fear would be the more powerful motivator. you can also look at the leave campaign. it was also true for the leave campaign that people felt the leave campaign had also played more people's fears. so we can't rule out the fact that fear had a bigger impact. but we can say that fears of immigration was a more overriding concern than fears of the economy. and people sadly did not believe

those fears. completely discounting them. tom: this is a good moment to bring in steve hilton. once david cameron's closest adviser. i can remember you and i being on that plane out to where it was. i can remember you writing speeches like "let sunshine when the day." then it went all very project fear-based. that's start with the bases. is your former friend, former boss finished as prime minister tonight in your view? steve: i think not and i think should not be. i don't detect any mood in the party to make that happen. but i think it is more than that i think those of us who wanted to leave the eu primarily because we feel it undemocratic, taking power at a people's hands, i think the idea of deposing an elected prime minister, elected to serve a

full time because he lost a referendum, is just undemocratic. i think that is completely wrong. tom: even if you didn't depose him, isn't it is our frame man who staked his entire career and told everyone many times that it would be an absolute catastrophe if we left, how can that be the right person to put humpty dumpty back together again? he also said not that long ago, if britain voted to leave, great britain would be great. i think the idea at this point, when we i hope made a big change -- it is too early to tell -- but if that happens, that is a really massive change here and i don't think we need to make tom: another big change at the same time. tom:tom: what does your hunch tell you? you sat through many campaigns. steve: it is too early to say. as we have all been discussing the lending desk the london result could have a big impact.

what i would say, honestly, whatever the result come i think it is interesting -- it is what you are talking about with amber earlier. the leave campaign has won the argument. what has really happened in this campaign is a real sense of an uprising against the way the world is organized, the concentration of power, the idea that people don't have enough control over the things that match to them. and they had enough of it. and is not actually about the eu could it is about a lot of other aspects of their lives in the eu is a good example. and i think that has really come out in this campaign. tom: i take your point. you see donald trump rising in america. and whether this night goes the way we think. is -- anything is possible out there. i totally accepted -- in the last general election, we had scotland going a totally different way. i remember watching the screen and leftabor mp walked

the stage for good. but is the eu really the target for the people who voted this way? are they just disgruntled in your leap -- in your view and blaming everything on the eu is completely wrong and out of proportion to the reality. the argument that connect all of this is the sense of a lack of power and control over things that matter. that includes the way schools are run and health service in the way they are treated by big business. the eu does bring all of that together. it is the case. immigration can't be controlled by the british government. the argument for immigration genuinely isn't about what is the policy on immigration, should we have higher or lower, it is about the frustration people have that they elected a government that promise to do something and discovered that it could not. that is underlying all of this.

cameronou imagine david really wanted to stay? >> i do think he has a strong sense of public service and he hated the idea of doing this it would be crushed, but i do think , i think he would. clear. become quite he was elected last year to serve a full term. in that election, he stood on the manifesto of having a referendum. there was not a condition attached to it. it could have gone either way. it is undemocratic to say that he should leave before the term elected. of notpracticality having a part in it, can he really be the person who negotiates on your behalf with brussels? >> yes. i completely agree with you.

he has a strong sense of duty and obligation to be a good steward of the country. >>: question. --t to do with parliament >> what do you do with parliament? >> there are many tories, house of loyalty supported the prime minister. people havet of made this point, if he had actually come on the other side of the argument, he would have had a completely united party. >> good moment to get into the state of play. then will go to leads to see the reaction. [no audio]

>> we started at the beginning of this evening with you suggesting that things looked a bit gloomy. but the night is turning out to be slightly better for the leave cap. -- camp. >> the last five hours. it started here as a case of, let's celebrate regardless. now, let's potentially celebrate the result and they are celebrating another result. by an exhausted person. you donated 6 million pounds from leave. perhaps the biggest exit -- bre

xit that. >> still close. it looks like it is going to be that, still very close. >> do you think you have one? >-- won. >> i think we have. that there is still a lot of london to go. impossible to tell. >> in your mind, what does the result that appears to be emerging tell us about what is going on in the country? >> win or lose, we still could listen, the actual voters and labour party, the remain are obliterated. a small majority, do you then look on this campaign, but act at moments like that poster accused of

being racist, why did you do this? >> the two dividing lines were immigration and the remake. economy was the big thing. i think it did not do any damage whatsoever. politicians are sneering at people. it is aople understand whole range of different things and they are making their views heard. >> do not fear that we have seen the emergence of two countries, london scotland. >> i'm a bit more optimistic. i look at is as a trade plot. be the wake-upy

call that is required for us to leaders changean direction. [laughter] probably been, the campaign. i think nigel has done tremendous work. he's to say, 100% of our margin don't know 50%. that is politics. lastly, if you don't win this, , does he have to resign tomorrow? >> ridiculous. wonderful result win or lose. if you think about what the , theyishment has thrown

tried everything. recession, they have thrown absolutely everything at that. canterbury, toof .et a result like this >> thank you. the optimism is growing. great deal of scientific polling, but based on their initial assessment. >> thank you very much. the site and the polling seem to suggest that leave is edging towards upwards and could the type returned? yes. it london and other places come back very heavily. remainat this point that

has a job to do. it sounds like a football match. but it is not. now andt the plymouth get a sense of how the people are reacting. twos don't leave campaigners from the fishing industry and they are full of smiles as you can imagine as the results are rolling in. you have been efficient effort this could be the moment you have been waiting for. >> 30. i could be what we have been fighting for. >> look at the results from the southwest firing and. we have had many places voting

leave. will this be regionwide. will this week the board in the southwest. >> coastal communities love the fishing industry. for thee supported us 30 years that i've been involved in the industry. seemsampaigning and it that the community has got behind us through the votes yesterday and with these results today. >> is it just about the fishing industry or has there been something about the story of the fishing fleet has hit home with people away from all that dry statistics? >> i think you are right. came to terms, it has opened a whole new area of people with fishing. these guys are working hard and fighting for their living. is very human story has

litigated -- radiated in the landlocked parts of britain? >> i think so. >> whatever happens, things are not going to change. rapidly. >> name. -- >> no. it was the face a lot of renegotiation. take years and years to be made in the european union and it will take a long time for parliament to react to this and we have at least two years of regulations until there are any changes. problem with' line problem isunderlying you will be under -- negotiating with neighbors. >> we have a good barometer with greenland and norway. they have successfully negotiated with countries that

are the neighbors and with the european union. no reason to suspect that we will fail in that regard. >> it does still seem to be based in the southwest. do you think if there is a vote, boat, -- remain there was still be progress? >> yes. i'm hoping if we remain, they will look at the and help us out a little bit. >> what would happen? >> if we have a leave result, will members disregard the rules and framework? >> this will take a couple of years or more. we still have to abide by the rules set at the moment. , don't see anything changing

not for the foreseeable future. vote, yous a leave will start addressing. pressurizing. you will want changes by mark quickly. -- far more quickly. to be able to sit at the table with ministers who have made promises. even if we remain as a result of this, there will be some significant changes that the fishing industry deserve to have. having been iny, this for so long, your feelings? >> very excited so far. >> can't wait. >> some boats are still out at sea, many of those will be hoping that when they hit dry land, it will have a different

relationship with our european neighbors. active in the studio. -- back to you in the studio. it might be a while until we could say definitively what the results was. here,alled and jane convinced the data has begun to simmer down into a pattern. we would put up a probability graph. and we are now saying that there is a 75% probability of a leave win. still a long way . still theoretically and mathematically possible that it ,emained as incredibly well that trend could revert. the recent we have put it up is because the data appeared to be a trend.

maybe i can begin with you jane. but that is the way the story of the night is going. >> that is right. for remained to win, remain would need to do better in those areas that we expect to win overall. reverseter in order to this trend. what we are seeing is where they are winning, they are winning at around while the level we expected to rather than outperforming. leave has been outperforming. .emain used to outperform one additional caveat, the areas that we have yet to hear from the areas that we expect to be more likely to vote to remain. that is to the uncertainty the date if we have so far is not looking yet like the tide is turning. >> we've now had one for two

142arations -- declarations. result after result has gone through and leave are doing better than we expected by two or three percentage points against the benchmark we talked 50-50earlier as being result. we are not same with the final percentage outcome of the, but the direction of travel is clearly in favor of leave with the one exception of london. better -- else, and doing better. and scotland where there has been a lower turnout. and leave margin is much narrower. back to my theme, everyone's vote counts equally, the fact in scotland ist making a difference. it we are right, this has

been a long campaign. the prime minister in cancer and many others lined up numerous economic experts to suggest it would be a disaster and possibly worst if we left the union. a person suggested it could lead to war. it numerous people in authority putting their reputations on the line to say it would be a disaster if we left the european union. if we are right, the country has not listen to them and decided to go its own way. fascinating step to say the least. robert, what do you make of it? >> it is momentous. thee are heading towards exit from the european union. clear, the implications

are pretty much in every aspect of public life are huge. that davidieve cameron would stay in office so we would be looking at a leadership election for the tory party, some might well say if you have a new prime minister elected by tory mps, we might be looking at a general election. he might want a mandate of his own. apart from that, there are huge uncertainties about our relationships with the european union. kind of know what trading relationship we will have with them, we don't know what kind of security relationship we will have with the european union, we don't know what kind of trading relationship we will have with 53 other countries where the trade deals we benefit from our trade deals negotiated by the european union.

this is a very courageous, brave decision. the british people constantly warned that there were huge unknowns here. we're a competent nation, we can cope with these uncertainties and negotiate the future. it is going to be a testing time when we find out whether the uncertainties outweigh the potential long-term benefits of running things and our own way. want toe right, i don't exaggerate this, this is history. this is probably the biggest anybody of myt generation, i'm in my mid-50's, has witnessed. thehe prime ministers to prime minister in the government is still the government. julie is here.

what is the mood there? the'm about to put statistic we have had on the screen on. 75% for leedty of with heavy caveats. would have a copy of. we could be on the brink of leaving the european union. >> far closer than anyone would like. not even halfway through the night. still have lots of results to go. it is clearly going to go right down to the wire. makenk it is too early to a probability call. resultnot sure if what that was going but are talking about direction of travel. you must technology that this could be a moment of contention.

>> we could be at a turning point and as i have said, none of us would have wanted us to be at this evening at this point, so close. , you have somead big geographical divisions within the country. generational and social class divisions. >> what are you hearing from antigovernment? >> very early. >> they must be worried sick? >> we went to this with our eyes open. david cameron would not have made that decision to have the referendum about educating the real possibility of a going either way. we are over halfway yet. we have some work to do. >> why did the warning not work?

all -- we can take over the reasons why. fundamentale is one theme, we struggle to connect to the white working class this. areas, those industrial help bring in new manufacturing, the most got the importance of the european single market. there is not anyone else who has a leadership ability to get the country through what will be a quite challenging. period. >> how are you feeling at this point? >> a nervy moment. we're not halfway, but to what the outcomes are.

>> thank you very much. somber a rather campaign, let's go to leave where we expect the movement be different. >> is absolutely different. when thelice -- analysis came on the screen, there was a roar through the room. [applause] have a look around. they are ready to cut any moment. just leaving.ests , here'so point out

corbyn over there. he is the brother of the labor leader who has commended the work of his brother, but he says person.committed optimism has certainly grown . that is perhaps the picture of the night. they think they have got it. quite an extra dark moment. not just in tonight, but british history quite quickly. very few people thought we would be at this point.

but we certainly are at this point in the evening. one place but it is not want to hear this news. by a pretty picture in terms of what they wanted to hear. what is the reaction? >> the markets have been volatile. funds have been ringing. positions with the have money on this. this is about a flutter. since we put out the probability of the likely outcome, there has been another move and the market. we can see that the present gold has gone out. this of the chart we want to look at. this is the measure of the pound against the euro. this is the sunderland is old. fall in the on suggested they were turning.

5% against thewn dollar. 3.5% against the euro. euro has fallen in value. this is the expectation, the london stock exchange". full open at 8:00 this morning. market, will close down 5.5%. it,y thing, and have called ability odds. evening, that 365 -- bet365, their odds were predicting firmly 75% remain victory. both have gone into reverse. offering odds for britain to leave.

join now by the head of training. we are seeing the pound make new lows and this of the market waking up to the realization that we are going to see a leave from the eu and that is going to cause some issues. , this wouldtching be impenetrably they'll get the sense that the pound is moving. put this in context. on an average day, how often do you see this? yearese are once in 5-10 moves. these are moved by what happened over months. this happens in seconds. the trend does look like we're going to leave, we are probably going to see more moves and bigamist and they will gather speed. >> we heard an interview earlier

and we asked what would be the likely reaction and said it would be a bloodbath. is that what you are expecting? >> the markets are stuck in that and we are seeing this. are tantamount to bloodbath. we will probably see some more if momentummoves gather speed for the rest of the evening. medium-term will be significant moves and uncertainty. this could become the new norm as we see uncertainty and new deals being put in place. this could be bloodbath everyday. expected to open down 6%. becky. -- back to you.

tom: we believe a clinical scientists -- political scientists believe there is a 75% chance probability of a leave victory. that is where we are at this point. let's go over to james in brussels. not theabsolutely message european leaders want to whatnor the ones expected you think their reaction is likely to be? >> the next move is not theirs. the referendum is not legally binding. it does not trigger and a thing -- anything. they have to wait and see. basically have to wait and see what the british government will do. can we renegotiate?

a lot of people have rolled out that possibility. -- rolled out that possibility. will the british government say that we have had this election, we voted to leave, we are leaving. we will trigger the leaving mechanism. treaty 10 years ago was negotiated, a lot of people said, how can we carry on in this organization. there's no way of getting out of it. will write in a way in the cold -- called it article 50. of getting out of the european union. for it tomust wait the british government to say that they wish to trigger article 50. a two-year timetable, can be

extended. at the end of which you are out. in the meantime, all the rules and laws of european union continue to apply. as of tomorrow morning, we are still full members and will be until the day we leave. tom: thank you very much. a quick recap. state of play. counts.had 172 lisa is ahead. -- leave is ahead. probability of a victory at 75% for leave. liam fox, former defense secretary. and alex campbell. wow, he we are. the obvious question, what happens next? said it would not

economically damage us. the target of bloodbaths. >> i think that it's inevitable given that the expectation were that remain would win the british public took a different view. there has to be a correction. more importantly, the political forility here is essential david cameron to continue as prime minister. i think we need to get that political stability and continuity so that we have as little disruption as possible. tom: i followed david cameron, he never imagined he would be here tonight. continues, do either of you think his credibility the last? >> that the cousin the support he gets from his colleagues. a lot of us have artie in a letter for tonight.

what is he him a couple weeks ago on this point. if the leave cap wins, at the prime minister who brought the referendum, you have a duty to see it through. he has a strong sense of duty recognize he will has the support of his colleagues. >> what happens next this is uncharted territory. none of us can accurately predict what happens next? what is your sense of the next few steps? the trend is, does look to be heading towards leave. some of the big cities are to vote. whatever happens, this is uncharted territory. , think even a remain win now

it throws up all sorts of big questions in the air. next,leave, what happens there is this desire to the conservative party, whether he can stomach that, i think you would. -- he would. labor party, there will be questions. tom: is jeremy corbyn finished? >> i don't think there's anybody who can safely think that he connected with so many of these people who would be lost. scotland and in similar in parts of north of england. i think the whole question of the union comes into view. scotland has voted. take think another

referendum and scotland is likely? >> i think it is likely. this mood, i could see them winning. all sorts of stuff. think way come i don't expectleep, they don't this. worried thisghtly of the direction it has been headed for some time. when you have such an overwhelming volume of opinion pushing in one direction, it just wasn't pushing, pulling the people back. tom: everyone watching this, whatever their view, will be , what happens next? this is uncharted. you think a referendum in scotland is possible?

i don't think there is a desire to do another referendum process. the economics are even more adverse now. they would have to weigh the different elements. the scottish government would be in more trouble. i do think that is inevitable. the people have not noticed is the story of wales. overwhelmingly voting to leave. this was coming. those of us who campaigned in the welsh elections earlier this year, you could feel it very strongly. this referendum tonight is reminiscent of the general election last year when those in the west mr. bubble had one t-mobile was happening in the country those campaign on the ground had a very different view.

at the at all surprised way dissipating out. campaigning around the country outside of london to see this. body is sovereign parliament. confident what happens next is constitutionaly feasible? >> yes as have the european council that this is happening. tom: then they do a deal. >> than the negotiate and starts. we don't know the results. tom: we keeping caveats. here, are then democrats? number of things we voted,

research and we want to be out? we want to control our borders, but the single market? >> every member of parliament who is watching the coverage tonight should be asking themselves, do they think this was a consultation put the voters with this and instruction. theiew it was a letter -- latter. >> if we remain, we remain, if we leave, for leave. >> within the process but will -- which will go on for years, there will be all sorts of major motives in parliament. point right to raise the that, what you're seeing is not the vision, huge division. up to parties will wise the message. >> big difference between

london. tom: thank you very much. while we were speaking, jan and colin were reviewing their probability and have decided to push that up a bit and at this point in the evening, we are now saying that we think there is an 80% probability. ofarly, you're in territory aching history tonight. we are in territory of taking history tonight. i've never seen anything like this. discussing, we're moving into uncharted territory. think anyone who tells you what the next couple weeks going to be like is possibly stretching the truth a bit. we have seen references to a bloodbath in the city already. we have no idea how long that will last. no idea medium-term north

long-term impact. maybe i can bring you here. when,ility of a leave uncharted territory does not begin to describe it. firstly, campbell sounded like he thought there was a case for another election because he could see the logic which is that, it is good to say you are listening to the good people, but if you don't agree with it, they'll be all these occasions where people might want to vote against it. it has to be dissolved. probability of a general election sometime in 2017, these parties can't struggle on like this. largely tory party is eurosceptic. to triggerot want another election. >> labor in parliament, how do

you get things through this incredible sticky. ? ,here will not be anything nothing happens. is, not trigger it. heck of a long time. to, cablewant suggesting that there might be another scottish referendum. it might be more successful. foxightly agree with liam that it might not go through. where would we even start. come and sit down and join this discussion about uncharted territory.

>> there are still caveats. we said that this is a probability, not a certainty. the caveats are those areas yet to declare other kinds of areas we expect remain to do well. remaining to do much better, but 72.9%e edinburgh on turnout. byve are currently ahead 482,000 votes. what happens, it will come down to the wire. tom: it is very close. don't be another fascinating story if remain close of the gap. >> there hoping. they are putting their hope. they're clinging onto hope.

>> there will be part of the country that have not delivered the remain vote like scotland. country delivering massive leave votes. there will be angry people on either side. tom: i think we have seen enough, the floor is a is coming. -- full result is coming. wales than better in expected. the surgeon that leave the wind wales. you expect social media to be alive at this point in is predicting a fairly high probability of a leave victory. saying.e what nina is >> when you first announced a

probability with the obvious comparison to the leave campaign where we heard the cheers, there was silence in this room. i have to say that silence has not gone away. it is incredible to see so many political commentators and journalists nothing much at all. it is the shock of what could be happening here tonight. look at this map. it has gone absolutely crazy. this is the number of conversations happening right now talking about the eu. sent formber of tweets the moment the polls close the last couple of hours. one that only the people have chosen to have their tweets located. 95% more that we can't show you. overseeing is all across europe,

a huge conversation going on as people to the -- listen to the news we are breaking. they may have to wake up to a new shape europe. >> let's look at the rest of the world. >> these are tweets about the eu referendum and they are all across the world. that big burst was when the polls closed. what you are seeing is all across the world, especially commonwealth countries. a huge amount of interest. >> thank you. thank you for talking. in terms of that moment, the prediction, the probability of 75%, now 80%, crazy? vanishing fast.

still clinging onto hope. a tale of four different nations. remain ahead in london and scotland, warm and open and ireland marketing camera in wales and all the english regions. the have lost sheffield and losing in places that they should win. watch for it has appointed to leave. the chances to remain are slipping away. >> still talking about the probability and not results, but at the results match the probability, why do people see this coming? >> the pollsters will have to methodology. the markets were quite. the polls looked very narrow, very evening.

-- even. .> quickly, if, what happens next. >> we will not leave the european union medially. it will take a long time. -- immediately. it will take a long time. he will say something about the timetable, how quickly it will move. >> thank you there much. tom: let's take stock. we were discussing around the desk just exactly what is good to happen over the next two weeks. robert, what are you kickoff with a summary. right, and the have

complete confidence in our weleagues that we are right, are about to witness britain in favor of leaving. we will see a short area events in the coming hours and weeks and months. see a fall inill the value of the pound greater than anything we have witnessed since we tumbled out of the exchange rate mechanism back in the early 90's. see share prices fall slightly. we will see the euro weakening because questions will be raised about the survivability of the european union. expect the bank of

england to talk about the measures it is taking to make sure that banks have enough finance. we will be staggered if we don't get a statement from the governor of the bank of england talking about the measures the bank will be taking to make sure the financial system remain safe in the people's money remain safe and that as far as they can, growth in the economy is sustained. chancellorr from the about the work that the treasury has done, the contingency measures that the treasury will have been working on to make sure financial institutions and the economy are kept going and, letter, we've had this , the pledgede

allegiance to the prime minister. howst think, i cannot see the prime minister can tomorrow say that he is going to stay in oxford more than a few weeks on the biggest political decision that he has ever taken will have gone in his terms so spectacularly bad. he said it would be catastrophic for them to vote to leave and they have ignored him. his authority has been undermined. i don't honestly see how he was survive. allegra's put that to for a moment. try to get my head around the political ramifications. we have not to talk about the possibility that scotland has

another referendum. we're talking about two dissolutions. , if anyknow where this other business will get done. >> environment secretary decided to vote to remain because she felt it would dominate everything. trite. slightly this is now a huge piece of statecraft. not get anything through on social mobility. agreed, i don't see how the prime minister, he will be crushed and broken. .e will be in tears he did not want this to happen. but, that you agree, everything we know about him, he's a public servant and he will feel he has

lectern and make a statement to the country. >> i'm sure he will. let's go to julie and remind ourselves that the frivolity -- probability has crept up, remain has not yet lost. he was talking about the possibility that there are not faces -- places that if remain did better, the trend could reverse. >> they would have to start doing much better. >> again, the lower end of what they're expected. expected more like 63. tom: to julie, are they keeping the candle alight their?

there? now that theme campaign manager for remain, quiet for long spells. what is your reaction? >> a tale of two countries. london, other big cities declared for remain, but large parts of england and wales for leave. very divided country. over -- astill it number of results. >> lastly, we were seven points behind so we were certainly contemplating this happening. for much of the last five years,

there's been a significant attitude to leave. the of always known what a big challenge this was to win this referendum. been some there have issues along the way as well in terms of how individual political parties have campaigned. like you are to lay blame? what went wrong? >> we don't know what the results are yet. we will look at that in the morning. we for the final results and then, whatever the results, reflect on what has happened in the u.k.. whether it is a narrow weed -- , this country has voted in

different ways throughout the country. what are you hearing from your labor colleagues? london,ome liver areas, manchester, other cities around the country yet declare, labor votes have turned out another part of the country have been lower. wait and see how each individual party supports. what we will find is more labor voters, more greens have voted for remain they conservatives. let's still wait for the final results. clearly, we need big wins.

>> thank you. tom: julie, thank you very much. a good moment to remind ourselves of the state of play. leave is ahead. still some way to go. at the moment, it does look as if there is a trend. repeatedly cap he opted -- caveats, but there is a trend. not good for david cameron. join now by a tory mp.

not the only one in your family to stay in the eu. i don't know whether you have mixed emotions. >> we have not lost yet. ng everything i say. are weg as i do leaving, we will want to be sure that some of the good things which the eu did on patient protection and department of policy, we want to make sure they are safeguarded. tom: do you think this is a good night or bad night? >> has to be a good night. it has gone down to the wire. that is something.

i'm not disinterested in this, but i do think, except argument on fire. -- he set the argument on fire. you did set the argument on fire. look at the response. you made it very clear that you don't think the economic impact of leaving be very significant? boris said he will apologize if he goes into a recession. how confident are you? differentiate between the real economy and the market. they tend to go each far -- too far in each direction. that will will happen. stock market will go down but it

will come back. importantly, the real economy depends on trade events for the argument has been. and that has been with the argument has been. we have a couple years to do the trade deal with the european union. work?ow does that we are in uncharted territory. the country are size has ever tried to leave the european union before. i understand how the three works. theory works. >> it is not three. countries more than us have done a much better job striking deals with china, america, india. country the size of south korea or singapore. our --es they quarter of

and they had done very good deals. and quickly. tom: that david cameron stay at leader? >> i think so. the primary issue here is a big negotiation. it requires huge amount of fortitude. it will take a couple of years. we don't need instability or leadership contest. can i ask you, yes but a long time in brussels. and i did a stint as a member of the european parliament. it is a personal moment. assume that we are at a leaving situation. issues, migration, we will have to find another

formula. tom: on the point david was making about trade, the germans and french have made it clear that there to slam the door in our face and we have said that is ridiculous. know, you must know , what do you think they are to -- their attitude will be? politically, they have to s?nishments -- punish us >> what they will not do is start imposing cares. -- tariffs. don't think we have anything to worry about that. i worry more about staying in.

tom: the environmental with their other international bodies. which are above the european union. >> but they don't have the legal force. >> nevertheless, we will have to negotiate with them too. we've heard. myself to go drug leave cap. cap -- camp. >> ladies and gentlemen, the dawn is breaking on the independent united kingdom.

[applause] if the predictions are right, this will be a victory for real people, a victory for ordinary people, a victory for decent people. [applause] we have fought against the multinationals, but against the big banks, but against big politics, fought against lies, corruption, and deceit and today, honesty, decency, and belief and nations is going to win. [applause]

and we will have done it without having to fight, without a single bullet fired. hard work on the ground. by people like my friend, mr. banks. [applause] people in the labour party and the conservative party and of no party who have taken part in this campaign. and we will have done and not just for ourselves, we have done it for the whole of europe. i hope this victory brings down this failed project and leads us to the europe of sovereign nation states trading together, being friends together, operating together and let's get the project that has gone wrong.

[applause] let june 23 go down as history as our independence day. [applause] tom: i don't think anyone can accused him of underplaying his big moment. let me ask you one thing, is there a source of alignment? what is the point? >> they have achieved their end. tom: did they just joined the tory party? >> i don't know how that will work. on the one hand, they finish

with a set out to do. aspect is they have galvanized the best part of the population which is outside london, industrial working class. huge trenches in the northeast voting heavily to leave. that was eventually. there is also a comments on the establishment. the comment on the international establishment. somebody has to do something about those boats. .- votes labour party is falling down. terrible outcome in scotland. numeral taking over that role. tom: all this to be discussed and this will be the beta.

-- debated. not a pretty picture in the city. the pound is being sold off quite aggressively. tells theis chart, it story. 10:00 last night, we saw the pound rise against the dollar. but it has been steady decline. one pound will buy you one dollar and $.30. the last time we were at that level was 1985. the last time we saw falls of a percent, put it this way, if we 1992 on the day erm, we saw ahe fall of 4%. it is twice that magnitude.

hsbc was forecasting a person britain left, good change by 50%. -- 15%. believe me, those people cashing in their holiday money early in anticipation look very sensible. you will knock at the rate on your holiday money if you're going abroad than you would have done. others affected. britain is a net importer. level, remain at this will feel it at the petrol pump.

higher inflation across the board. within a few months. the bank of england will be mindful of that. building costs of the independent votes. the cost of sovereignty and it will be measured. 2008, we find evaluation -- saw a devaluation. 2008 to the financial crisis, the pound fell sharply. 20% and happened over a number of weeks. a significant fall. that affected living standards for seven years. they found where pay was not rising the same pace as prices and it meant a squeeze on living

standards. everyone can remember the age of austerity. we face the prospect once again. tom: thank you very much. we spoke with robert moore who painted in a rather than pretty un pretty picture. i don't suppose they will be more impressed with the news. decision-makers, white house, pentagon, estate house, -- steakhouse, they will be surprised at exit wins. the city has been dealing with populist antiestablishment anger for a year now. american politics has taken the for of searching support

donald trump and bernie sanders and now it appears this antiestablishment sentiment has been shared by both sides of the atlantic. we can discuss who has the worst job in politics tomorrow morning, but one of the worst jobs in diplomacy will be the ambassador here. the establishment here with those of the state department and at the white house wanted britain to stay inside the eu because without a pro-washington voice in brussels was vitally important. i think it will be a bitter disappointment. the fundamental question, if in the coming days or weeks as an international crisis, does the president of the essays make the first international call to london or does he think it should be made to berlin?

the old traditional links will be maintained, family, trade, academic links. i think there will be a fundamental reevaluation of the political link and that, berlin and paris could be the gainers in this in terms of how the white house perceives power in europe. tom: thank you very much. i suspect it will be a busy day there tomorrow. experts say there is now an 80% probability of leave the boat. vote.ve leave is ahead against remain.

theoretically, it would seem as , experts here the trendly confident is leave look at over the line first. as you heard, sterling has plummeted. the biggest fall in diet since black wednesday of 1992. faro has just addressed his party. >> ladies and gentlemen, dare to dream. the dawn is breaking. independent, that it can do. down in our 23rd go history as our independence day. [applause] tom: there we have it.

>> there is one fundamental thing which that we struggled to connect with the white working classes even in the old industrial areas for european money has helped to revitalize the areas. our message is about the clear importance of that european single market. meanwhile, lead campaigner liam fox is to supporting david cameron. >> political stability. cameron toor david continue as prime minister. i think we need to get stability and continuity that we have as little instruction as possible. -- disruption as possible. party, thethe labour

rebels sorts of questions for leadership. finished?y korman >> another hears anyone who can fiercely think that jeremy corbyn connected with so many of these people who have been lost. this seems like a good moment to ask jane for a sense of the national picture. >> this was a good time to look at the board. there may be people skeptical about this 80% probability. i think the picture does tell a thousand words. we have our board of the areas most likely to vote remain and there is most likely to vote leave. the rent and things sweeping to the left and then further left across the board. remain has instant to the areas on the right kind side.

we are expected to see that remain areas yet to declare. true that there are lots of areas on the right-hand side that we are waiting for it as the night goes on, there is so little doubt that those areas will go leave. we can tell a story about what has happened tonight. let's start with gotland. -- scotland. 62.7% for remain. 66.9 turnout. low. london. you're saying more support for remain. 63.9%. turnout nudging up to 70%. let's look at wales. leave, at the top, leaves

support is 53%. the turnout even higher. the more support for leave, the higher the turnout. let's take a look at england. leave and turnout of almost 73%. leave has done better on a better turnout. tom: i've been told that we think birmingham has gone leave. approaching the no way back point. booke point where we get a 80% probability. if there is any doubt, if we go back to the national picture, get a result like that and we have a high turnout. what we're going to see our

leaveareas, making for and not enough on the left-hand side for remain to win. we have not called it yet, but the picture does tell the story. tom: i'm told that allison mcentee is information -- mackenzie is in birmingham. whisper fromhad a a senior member, they're calling it a some 3000 votes. that was not expected. city, that is how it is looking. a declaration is imminent and we will bring it to you. there are some subdued faces here. very subdued at the word was going around in favor of leave. big shock you.

>> here. -- big shock here. tom: we are shifting probability. at some point i will be up to say probability without stumbling over it. 85% probability of a leave when. -- win.

>> the native country of scotland, was to be part of europe and they were dragged out of europe out of the world. it should have the right to hold another independent referenda. some people might say that is a bit rich. slightly greater numbers, the u.k. would remain. >> people forget that this is compared to be general election.

last timeout was huge because of the impact of referendum. 66% is not a low turnout. matters is the vote 36% --ain is 64% printed compared to 36%. every single local vote counts. it is hard to know exactly where to go next. do you think the u.k. parliament would agree to another referendum in scotland? >> the current position of the as we haveernment, had a referendum, they would regard any attempt by the interesting but not

binding. >> one of his arguments was there would be another scottish referenda. -- referendum. is going to be extensive. the only determinant political action will come from nicola sturgeon. of: there will be a lot confusion. >> expecting there to be another referendum, how long and what would be the stages? >> the timescale is dictated by the prime minister.

then, and when that starting gun is fired, whatever years, that, 2-2 .5 would be the timescale. you would remain in the european union of the rest of the u.k. is out. it is a lot easier to negotiate staying in the eu. they were not have to use the euro. there is a range of currency options they would have. >> what is the range? stanley.d use the use a range of

these options. incidentally, is not a great time to talk about currency policy. saw say hepoll i might well have one people thought they would be worse off. a lot of emotion involved. very tempted but worried they would be worse off. what is really changing? was at 20% when i started. the last poll had 48%. time prepare to start a referendum, i think the clustered in what become people

-- nicola sturgeon. scottish people were told to vote yes for independence, it would jeopardize their vision in europe. -- position in europe. and a major company making it clear that they would have a different view on scotland. tom: let's go to brussels. have you been following the conversation, i been now, we're talking about whether scotland will remain. lot that yourul opinion leaders react to >> european leaders will read back to -- european leaders will react to.

when they sit down to their breakfast, i'm joined by former new region -- the region -- norwegian. a lot of people talk about the norway option. you have two referendums. in fact, we went to bed with a yes and welcome but they know. 94 it was very close. >> the norway option, tell us about it. how is your relationship. -- it is quite simple. they decide and we apply. around, how you

buy or sell goods. >> you have full access to the single market? play -- pay considerable amount of money. >> you have to agree to free movement? -- yes. >> you have no more control over immigration than we do? >> no. crisis, we'veuge had a large influx of immigration from outside. from inside the eu, we have been in need of them. they are running our we can

agriculture. agriculture henry n. -- norwegian agriculture. >> how much they do have on them. ? -- people often ask me what they say about us. they don't see as. there are no norwegians on the council. have a hard time getting a dialogue with eu officials. >> what you have to do? >> next week, there are two representatives from every every state traveling to oslo paid by the norwegian government. >> you have to pay them? >> yes. so they can see what we do

because we are leading on transfer policy. it is good for the eu to see what we are doing so they can apply our policies. we have to make them come and see us because they don't have time for us. >> thank you very much. .here are many options it does not have to be that way, but this is one example of life living next to the single market. which, may be in our future. tom: thank you very much. the sun slowly coming up over brussels. this is the view from dover as they speak. speak. experts on by

politics in general. will come to you first, is the u.k. finished? i'm so confused. >> i think they have a strategic decision to make. if you look at the geography of the vote, what you see, strong turnout in those areas down the east coast down towards the south coast. that reflects what the strategy has been to cultivate into, inlass support particular, connect labor areas. one of the big stories for me tonight, wales.

looking at how some of those welsh working communities have gone as well as the northeast and northwest. >> how does the right to with this? right?ppens on the to the come back together? together? come back >> they will continue to campaign to keep pressure on the government during the renegotiation. we of the 2019 european parliament election. they will attempt to stay on and campaign during a delicate negotiation process with russells. to ensure that the will of the people is enacted. will the people in place. to --dical right pepper

type party. the conservative party will u.k. votersf those that deserted the conservative party. tom: we mentioned earlier the idea that this was a tory psychodrama. ?hat is your sense jack >> this is his third referendum. he won the first 20 sleep. , the political scottish hangover. this third one leave the country with an economic and financial hangover. the conservative party, it is interesting. the effort they have made since the close of the polls, the different toe a

succeed. -- effort to succeed. this referendum is such an expose of event. -- explosion of an event. will be concentrating on an enormous recession emergency. tom: one of the reasons he wanted to go out was to get a better deal. does that look likely? coming.body saw it the markets do not like uncertainty. the fact remains that for some he did not win the hearts and minds of the people, far from it as you have seen. not, we have to make sure we stay liked. the u.k. is the fifth largest

economy in the world. we have a superb feature outside the eu or even within the eu if that is what is decided. that could so be a possibility. tom: but we won't be the fifth largest economy in the world if we can't get trade arrangements to continue trading in the way that we have. i'm interested to know how confident you are watching the market reaction and uncertainty that we're going to maine where we are. you know as well as i do that massivelyy is not in great shape. are you really confident we will get-le to filter this? through this? >> they need our business, we need their business. most of the countries do.

tom: about to go to birmingham. one of the things that has been extra and eric, the total rejection. extraordinary, the total rejection. >> the campaign for be judged on the results. the league campaign has been a huge success. there may campaign, a huge failure. rejection probably a of expert. a rejection of the political class. a proxy for people's fear and was, -- tom: we have got to, we're looking at the picture of birmingham which is about to declare.

say this as i look at an empty stage. birmingham is, of course, a very big area with an enormous number of people. we hope that it would be decisive, but we have now reached the point we don't need birmingham to be sure of the direction of travel. we're calling it for leave to win the referendum. extraordinary moment. referendum that david cameron not need to call he was certain to win. became ever more apocalyptic about how dangerous and difficult it was for us if we left. we have, as a nation, exhort him. , 4:35, ihe morning

they read and watch, -- h. victory. watc moment to look at the clock. at long and tumultuous night. seen the reaction to the market. not exactly an attractive picture. moment ago about how that is hardly to be expected -- largely to be expected. set the direction of travel for a while. >> we are. percentages overall was be something like 48%

remain, 52% leave. a clear but not overwhelming entry. -- victory. it will show the contrary -- country is split down the middle. can i ask you, did you see this coming? graph witho your , in the end come up with that what it was about? >> i think so. and to answer your question, i did not see this coming. if we had expected leave to have one, it would have been by a large -- minute margin. the content of the research you had and word clouds and everything, it is dented immigration. -- down to immigration.

>> immigration and contact establishment -- antiestablishment politics. all of the antiestablishment sentiment, the rejection of mainstream politicians, that very deep concern about immigration, control, all that summed up in that sense of britain, or politics not speaking for many people of the country. tom: so many different things. do you think george osborne was being truthful when he said there be an emergency budget. >> they will have to be a budget that adapts the government's audiences to the new financial prospects. but the george osborne will be delivering that budget is

altogether another question because, i don't see how the minister -- prime tom: just look at birmingham now. let's listen. >> have been authorized to do so, i hereby give notice that i have certified the following, the total number of ballots 451,316. remain to a 23,451.

20 to 27,0000 -- 251 -- 227,251. the result is not complete until i have completed the certification, thank you. tom: the world is watching. 63% turnout. it does not change the fact that it is a leave majority. that does nothing to change the fact we're called it for leave.

one of the things i have found very striking to the is the number of people who either didn't believe the economic warnings or did not care about them. this comes back to the issue that jane was talking about, the issue of trust in institutions. extraordinary manifestation, more than half the people who live in this country not only don't like the european union, but actually put thingsweight the kind of that institutions like the bank of england, the economic cost of all of this. they think the economic cost will only fall on rich people and would not fall on most of us. fear, financial markets

overreacted in a not connected to the real a come in, that is rubbish. he knows it is rubbish. prices falling and less investment, and banks incur losses in some financial to institutions will, the have less capital available for lending. there is intimate link between the financial market in the real economy. when financial markets are her, the real economy is hurt. we are waking up to what is a potentially most divisive periods. reflecting on what robert was saying, lots of people think it will not cost anything to leave. but so we have an emergency

budget, the people who did not want to leave are going to be angry that there be made to pay something they did not want. what do you see in the next year or so? people even on george osborne's side, they found unbelievable about his emergency budget was that he was saying all the weight would fall on spending cuts people on his side of the argument were saying that is not economically literate. borrow and there are other ways to do it. don't put all the pain on the welfare budget. it is not so much that there will have to be recalculation of finances. as more how you do it. robert is shaking his head. there is so much emotion.

, it capturesad at the emotions we see over the next few days. people think it is great, people think it is terrible. establishment has been thrown out the window. president united states, the archbishop of canterbury,, celebrities, rebecca, -- david not to leave.told the queen! is was this aer big reckoning post the financial crisis that we never saw the people out there said you guys in london have not done enough for us.

>> it could be that the british people are determined and they heard it all and in normal circumstances it might respect the government but on this issue , because of all of it they thought now. i care about this. is actually every vote that counts. >> we are in uncharted territory. remember the constitutional decision of this significance in our lifetime. a deeper,g from richer much more complex european union, which we have chosen to do is infinitely more significant than joining a trade union which is what we chose to do in 1974 and 75.

much, thecations are thing that i suppose worries me is this. we don't know where we are heading. but let's say in the next few years, it turns out that we are not richer, not safer in that all the things that the voters have been told don't of thelize, what competence and purchase people. >> is immigration controlled and lowered. of the on like this onurchasetom: we o that. we'll be back in a moment. before we do, let's go to one place where they are capuivocally happy, believe -- leave camp.

markets and the other way has been through ational frauds -- by joe for -- faro, he was back here at the party. came here to make a triumphant .peech where there were cheers don't only see this as being a victory, for many asple tell me they see this a victory against british elite, i guess celebrities -- against celebrities, the political class.

for whoe some people this is not just a campaign, this is a mission to get a referendum and then to get britain out of the european union. one question been asked, what , is this a party with a point? the real question now, what should happen to david cameron. he says he has been dishonest and should resign. ecstasy ineeling of the room. ago they thought they may have lost it. projectionhair the that britain has voted to leave. tom: he cannot be with a happier group of people. the schedule place where we

suspect the atmosphere is very different. not the night. >> it is not. there cannot be a greater contrast. scene behind me. cautiously optimistic when we went on air. that you can see that it is quieting down. moments of absolute silence in this room. turns when and things look as though they weren't quite going their way. people hanging onto those motions of what what happen in london. we saw with the probability figures we put out earlier. that they would win. it is flat. britain chooses to take different course.

the mood has changed utterly. nigel frosch appeared, there was silence and then anger. for the moment, as i look out the window, that is the latest. tom: thank you very much indeed. as we wake up in this country, of the prime minister wakes up and ministers wake up all over europe, think we got to the point where we can expect them to start coming forward with reaction. james in brussels.

clearly, we are at a point where you would expect some reaction fairly soon from european leaders. >> i suspect we will. friday is not normally a busy day but today will be different. expecting to have to mop up the aftermath of a narrow win for remain. it will be a different day for them. you are heading to the first of these meetings. tofirst of all, we have respect the fact that british people have voted and voted to leave.

we will come together and move on. the job is to get straight to work. i have meetings with other leaders. >> what reaction are you expecting? >> mis-direction. most wanted us to stay in. -- mixed reaction. most wanted us to stay in. now you will talk about the arrangement. we will talk about the arrangement. bring some certainty. to, whatill britain will you be able to tell them? -- i'm here to get a sense of the room and talk about how we're going to do this.

what is important is that we find a solution that is good for the eu and u.k. and to make sure that the u.k. remains good tenets and good neighbors. >> is there any scope for any sort of deal which could be offered to the british people to revisit? >> there has been a president in denmark the people of voted no. they were offered another deal. ity have said that this is though. >> have you been hearing anything behind the scenes to suggest that if you really do this, we will talk? >> up to now, i think people were expecting to remain. i think on the whole, people onlysaid, there will be one referendum and when the

british people went to the playstation, they knew that. station, they knew that. >> thank you. back to you. picture ofld do a don breaking. this is the same now. dramatic and poetic. symbolic of the feelings of the people who voted to leave. let's be blunt, the country is split. what will become of us? will be easy to put back together the trade relationships? emma is in paris. at the start of this program, we talk about what the reaction

would be. is it realistic attitude for them to want to get us out? back in 1963, charles de the european community and turned it. we have opted to leave ourselves that they are there and try to work out what that means. not just for europe, also for france. the businesses here will be rolling out the red carpet and sink to maximize what they can get from this. that will have a direct effect on the workers in the u.k.. there is no doubt that there will be people waking up in the united kingdom to know that they will lose their jobs in the coming weeks and months because business will be shifting and they won't have the option to move with it.

the french business community will be watching carefully. there'll be a real feeling of shock that this is happened. and it was to try and protect themselves prevent any further damage. this is a camera that next year will have presidential elections in the french national will do well and she said she will seek a french exit. to warnl be careful unioneaving the european is a difficult and damaging situation potentially. french politicians this wonderful be starting to see just what they can do to start exercising their influence. that is something we'll have to wait and see. i think the frederic bousseau

burma -- french position be much firmer. it will be wanting to make it a fast move to show that exit is not what they are seeking. thank you. i don't know if you've heard but emma said, but she was suggesting that the french attitude is going to be hard lined. it does all come down to germany in terms of what arrangements to get come up with do have access to the single market, also, some degree, it sounds like the germans and how they respond whether the whole union together. what is your faith with angela merkel? >> we are one hour ahead of , then there's absolutely

germans will wake up to a massive shock in the mood they did not see coming. they have been in denial for some extent by this boat. a recent poll here shows that 80% of german people support britain remaining within the eu. they just have not seen it come in -- coming. they were regarded as a disaster. -- will regard it as a disaster. he said germany would be reduced to tears by this decision which he says is a mistake of historic proportion. he said that germany values the u.k. as a counterweight within and it would lead germany in a position it never wanted as the sole european superpower. he is worried that will fuel anti-german sentiment. what will be germany's response,

however they treat the united kingdom -- how will they treat the united kingdom? two schools of thought. one is that the u.k. is germany's third largest trading partner in free trade will conquer all. there's another school of thought that germany will have to be hard on us and can't allow the u.k. to some sort of pied piper that will lead other question nations out of the eu. in the run-up to this, the financee of german minister said it would be a disaster. hardball.e will play is that there can be no halfway house for the u.k.. he said u.k. could not resigned from the club and still expect to use some facilities. tom: thank you.

msnbc.ow being taken by good morning to all our american viewers. i'm afraid we have something of a shock for you which is that it we have left the european union. been bouncing to and from the city and that is the pound against the dollar and tells the story. we started yesterday evening making it clear that the market had called the referendum that , remain would remain the course. the probability of the vote to leave in the pound has fallen. as was predicted against the do