d.c., all political matters are dominated by male domination. we do not have enough women in this country to help practice pluralism in america. andad two great churches there are others working hard to eliminate all of this racism. there is conflict when it comes to measuring people in local government, and that is the problem. governments are more concerned about riding around in big jets and i think they can go to airport like everybody else. we need government, but we also need some competent mass, just straight mass, to be applied to the principal problems that people are having at the local level. host: i am going to leave it

there because that is it for today's "washington journal." we will be back tomorrow with more phone calls. i want to bring you over to cs is, or they are discussing the future of aviation with vice admiral mike shoemaker.

[indiscernible chattering]

>> good morning, everyone. welcome to csi s. i am catherine hicks. it is with great pleasure to introduce this morning's event on the future of naval aviation. before we begin, i will give our usual safety reminder on precautions. we feel safe and secure, but should a fire alarm or that sort go off, there are doors kind you and to my left and right, there exits for the back of the

building, so just make sure that you are paying attention to csis officials who stand up to lead you through the room. the security dialogue is product of csis and the u.s. naval institute coming together to highlight the particular changes facing the navy, marine corps, coast guard from naval concept development and program design. we are fortunate to have this series sponsored by huntington ingalls industries and lockheed martin and today will be focused on the future of naval aviation. our discussion today is with vice admiral mike shoemaker, commander of naval air forces and commended naval care forces in the past and the event will be moderated by p daly, the ceo of u.s. naval institute. my job is to get off the stage so they can begin the discussion, so join me in a round of applause for our speakers. [applause]

vice admiral shoemaker: pete, thank you for the invitation. huntington ingles, thank you for sponsoring. what a great crowd. last time we did this was about one year ago. and my counterpart and i were appear and we look forward to coming back to talk about a couple of things. i have been in their boss for about 1.5 years now. it has been an honor and privilege. know,mportantly, as we they are wearing uniforms and they are clearly the folks that are really doing the heavy lifting day in and day out read we talk about core attributes in our navy design, initiative piece of our quality and talented folks and they embody all of that. be our system i

took advantage. we can talk more about that but we will talk about the future of naval aviation. i will talk for about 20 minutes, if that, but i will talk about where we are today across the board in the fleet from a demand perspective and then focus on the future of the platform as we move forward. i covered a couple last time with general davis and focused 35, the and be 22, which we are working at couple different things and then m2-25. our unmanned air vehicle. i will do is talk a little bit about the challenges. that is really the readiness challenges, working across concerns and that we will get to questions. if you look across the force today, we remain in high demand. not naval aviation but

maybe in general. i think it is because of the relevance and clearly what we bring to our leaders around the world. we are successfully delivering combat affects right now in the middle east and have been doing that very well. a few months ago, we had four , air wing seven was turning over with air wing three and at the same time in the western pacific, ronald reagan and air 15 were operating just outside and it was the first time in a long time we had two carriers together. one dedicated to the west andfic, not going through we had three more in work upset that time. and eisenhower stand to watch in the north korea being told conducting operations against

resolved and doing well. and then vincent and bush are the next to go, and they will be out the door in a couple of months and then it is not too far after that. isf the eastern coast, there one under the way. our third is integration with f 35, and that is going very well. in addition, a look at expeditionary forces. there are 26 that are underway around the world or deployed and that is ep3, helicopter single squadron deployed into the seventh fleet, so not just their strikers. i think they provide that visible deployed presence and value that reassure our partners and give our leaders options to respond quickly, if needed. we look to the future of naval aviation. i think it is very bright.

there are challenges near-term, but i think in the environmental sponsor haverce done a great job in transitioning each of our platforms, so in every community, except for two, our e6b's that provide control and medication mission set, those we are lookingo to sustain and the rest are in transition, so a good story. last time, the growlers are complete in transition. as the marine corps phases out , that will be the only airborne attack we will have an inventory. when you look at how the airplanes have been operating on

the air force base and up in alaska, our joint partners for partners flying value the contributions and what it brings, so they remain in high demand. then we bring on next generation jammer to make it more formidable in the electromagnetic spectrum. the helicopters are through transition. transition,adron they are complete. they are a potent conversation as you apply them in and around the kerry -- the kerry area -- carry area. as you go but hawaii -- as we go by hawaii, those both are in full forces as we practice and those commanders operating forces paid is difficult to penetrate to the high value, so they are doing very well in that environment. our tradition is about halfway done.

it will complete the fall comes fromwhen bp4 hawaii later this year. there is the second year of deployment in the western pacific, where we focus delivering that new platform, and they are operating in europe and they have the two first played attachments. i think they are doing a very good job with some privatizing -- with some prioritizing and they are going -- doing a good job following the p3. we have three squadrons of transitioning, not as fast as i would like, but we are moving in the right direction. we had much higher depleted on teddy roosevelt and then we will move that squadron to japan year.next now make air wing five in japan the most capable and continuing to push the most capable platforms and western pacific. the radar that brings the

unique abilities for the navy and fire control, or that platform will be the quarterback, essentially, for the air wing and joint forces. we are also seeing improvements at centerpoint flight in conjunction with this air wing challenge. 's, five left in the navy, capable, higher lot aircraft, ready to challenge and search them beyond their life. with the majority of that force will be on 6000 already. inventory management over the years will continue to do that for a few more years as resisting this platforms and then a beside and we will do the same thing for general davis. is probably the workhorse of the force. i called him the 4.5 generation aircraft, the complimented partner to the i-35. -- to the f-35.

we keep the rhinos up to speed and relevant. years to 15 years. they will make up three quarters of the strike fires and it is important that we do that. i have been advocating for more and i look forward to when it will reach the service life of 6000 hours, so we have a plan for that service life expansion. take the lessons we learn from legacy into that right, so we keep them relevant and part of the airway moving forward. forward and fine track us closely, we are putting hours on the part of the fleet and we'll get that life extension right. have beennto unmanned flying for a while and they finish their initial deployment with romeo and we sent coronado lock the door with sierra helicopters with fire scout. plans andtation and

very steep as he integrate manned and unmanned and bring that capability to our lcs fleet and also. -- we have three air vehicles testing in packs right now and that is progressing well. m to 25 stingray, this is our carrier-based uav and it evolves over time. the -- i think and request the proposals to industry and we are looking out with the trade space seta tanker setting, tanker and it is really the design of the commission sets we think our plane will do. the tanker peace and mission thinking is the priority focus and intelligence, and that is

the gap we need filled. as i talked to the partners, i realize there are two designs and platforms to do one of the seven mission tests alone and are different. anddrive a high endurance global efficient large chewing spend fishing platform, and if you will be a tanker at range, you have to carry a fair amount of fuel, so that carries a different design. and hasat sweet spot is to do both of the missions to get that range and etc. and helping that platform will be, which is a key attribute or prospect on the carrier and how many people it takes to run the detachment. we needa way to go, but to get that to the fleet as quickly as we can, so we start learning about that man and unmanned teaming. peo's touraged by our

accelerate the process. we need that to the fleet soon. gw with theioned bp3, our third and final developmental test, are f-35 was just out there and the qualified i think six pilots, maybe a few more, and 10 pilots are going now. we have about 100 traps that the , and of those, 80% or three wires. i say that because of unique things. we will talk about that in the second. we have about 30 aircraft and a but aroundn down, 25 and the start

of late fall, so it is ready for ioc. we will do challenges of that operational test but everything is on track and training, and be ready to accept and declare advocacy for f-35. the big concern is the threef software, part of the calculations, and i am confident we will get there. they have been up a couple of times and that has been a unique that fourthto start and fifth generation integration and understand what that really brings from the capability perspective. we understand the penetration capability and when you look at the ability to fuse data, they showed that with another platform in their when you would join force. that is the true value we will see an f-35. it is past the boundaries of

that range right there, so we have got to push a lot of that training and capability or ability of practice and high-end mission set for the virtual constructive world that we have done just that, or we have just now completed a narrative -- air facility and we run exercises with dark shift d's and we'lland e2 continue to expand that in all of our concentration areas. i mentioned the number of three wires when they go out in this platform comes with the delta flight capability, similar control lines we put that into our super hornets magic carpet. they were working on this time period on the gw. there were landing in the same

spot on the runway every time, where the up touches down, same spots and we quickly realized you have to fix the runway now or adjust into the system, so that is how precise the system is. magic carpet is the same type of flight control blodgett. i think that will give us unique ability to look at the way we work and expand the number of authorities in terms of bouncing and it will change the way we operate in change of kforce. it will be rhino but in the number of tankers, you have to daytime ande number nighttime and that will have a lot of flexibility in the airway. i think that will shape the maybesion on mp-25 with reduction in overhead requirements, but still needing it at range. cmv-22 from our the

bravo. we just finished an experiment and we ran operations just like on deployment. very successful into those cyclists integrations. we flew them in the events going y are excited about the opportunities the platform will bring, and as we got on board, all excited about the way they can use that an integrated into our cycle pops and make that the future care on board delivery. story on how they worked out. i talk about platforms and now mentioned in carriers, it will be working through the trials here in late fall, october, november and then it delivers. concerns with technology on board, but it is not unusual

the first of class and i don't think any our instruments above. in thell operate shakedown time after that and a couple different independent exercises and then get into availability. then begin the operational test and operation. do the full ship, which is a requirement, i think we could use them sooner. a chance to tour her a few months ago and i can save the ship is coming to life. the way we intend to launch recovery fuel, much more efficient and i'm excited about what that brings. you look at capabilities and defense capabilities on the platform and survivability, power generation capacity, all good things. we will look at how we take care of them and it is a good story there. it will come with a 50 year life in nuclear power and this gives

and injurenity flexibility that all carriers carry and spring. likely have done and you have seen it in our history here, it will continue to evolve with that airlink overtime. we have 10 right now. ceiling overhaul, one with docking availability, one at the in japan all the time, so the 2.0 demand, so with about a four to one, we are short, so i need them in the fleets. lastly, i talk platforms. we continue those transitions that their sustainment has to happen with those and there are weapons, sensors and an important network that has to be

all part of that as a link it together. weapons of development bring us the ability to extend the reach of this airlink, pueblo on -- well beyond airings of the past and what we're delivering and m 98 will give us that. id, both service and their contact, and that is what the sensors, manned and unmanned, join the space and the networks will bring that information together to share it, so those networks will be and tobuilding awareness ensure that we can control those forces moving forward and then the most important for immigration -- four integration fire, so those are all network technology. i have probably got a little bit too long. real quick, i mention the two challenges and we get them in questions, if you would like, but it is really the ability to

generate readiness and recover readiness at the same time. i mention the demand signal, andably supply about forces it is not sufficient to meet the demand right now, so i think in generatingcovery and readiness, that is our number one priority inside of the naval edition, and then the biggest challenge, this goat, budget pressures, the world we are in and prioritizing that future capability with that current force. ,t shows in the aircraft's which are coming out of maintenance a little bit longer as we continue to operate moving forward. [indiscernible] the challenges are increasing and funding decreasing. he went on to testify with four of our major commanders about the readiness challenge. represented the forbes had a

statement at the beginning and said, not currently providing our navy with the resources it needs, at least not without burning out our ships, sailors .nd other long-term i cannot have said it better and i'll leave that as the encapsulation of our curve readiness challenges. i think the naval aviation future is bright but we had to work through the near-term readiness challenges. as i look across the force, over accepting risk and some of those ands of fleet response plan coming home from deployment in sustainment phase, those working in deployment havoc they need to do the job required to go forward and i cannot be more proud of the way those sailors operate around the world today. i will stop there be ready for questions. thank you. [applause]

pete: thank you, admiral, or speed definition of where you stand. it was very comprehensive. one of the things that comes up all the time is carriers in the contested environment. there has been a lot of discussion, but i think agreement on a few points. of yourhat the enemy competitors and their ability to muster anti-access areas denial is increasing, especially in certain areas of the world and they bring a bigger capability and there also seems to be in agreement that in the near path, we have been operating in a fairly [indiscernible] environment. it allowed us to do things more easily only could've picked up some of the flak because of what we were being asked to do but now there seems to be agreement that it has changed. in you talk about that and

addition, talk about the fact that maybe the aircraft and reach and competition of the airway cranks up for the task at hand vice admiral shoemaker:. this -- in line at hand. vice admiral shoemaker: this is very much in the news. i am confident as a discuss what i resource office has been doing with the platforms and the weapons it will bring the platforms and the sensors of networks. and that would carriers strikers as a whole as it goes forward and i am confident we have the ability to create, to maneuver in a contested environment, create battle space to do what we need to do, maneuver again and operate, not with impunity, but certainly with awareness of the risk that is out there.

i also see the lines drawn on the map and if you give it a is a long0, that change. we have lots of things we do to disrupt that from all angles, the final piece of the carrier and make it hard to target. swift talked about this a lot, if you are not maneuverable, you are not relevant. as i look around the force and commandersate in our in the seventh fleet, montgomery and sergeant alexander, after him, they practice and environment -- operate in a confident environment and it will create those sanctuaries willingly to operate. if i had a son or daughter and then a be right now and someone said visits it to be in the environment? i have no problem with them being on the carrier. i have confidence they are in a good spot because of our ability

to maneuver and the things we are packaging and capabilities we're delivering with the shift and strike group moving forward. pete: how about the air wing itself question mark you talk -- itself? you talk about the good place you are in with those exceptions of the new model period. is there any rethinking about the capabilities inherent in those aircraft's and airings that that makes up any rethinking their or do think we have got it right in terms of capability and reach of the? airway -- at the air wing? ice admiral shoemaker: what talk about today, that would be the air wing as the new f-35. that will be the air wing of 2025, and i see it come position lies fairly similar to what we have today. i mention magic carpet and i think they'll give us opportunities to maybe bring on a few additional crawlers, give up a few numbers.

right now, we figure six to eight tankers on the ship and i don't think we will need to do that money. i think it increases the growler numbers, which i know we will need to do. then there is a land and unmanned thing we have to get right, and we need to get that to the fleet as soon as you can, so however that looks, start that teaming, operating unmanned in that environment and look for other ways to take advantage of that with other technologies out there. i think from the pure platforms, the look at 2025 and beyond that, the composition is good. the weapons are delivering give us that expanded reach and you fly out to the ranges and maybe even do some refueling, but after the range of our platforms, and then add a missile, it gives us the ability to touch something beyond what we did in the past. the key piece is the range

combat and making sure we get that right. pete's: thanks. -- pete: thanks. you mentioned one of the lines and you did not dispute congressmen's statement but you did not endorse it either. do you think he has it right? vice admiral shoemaker: if you is right, if you is right, you hear a lot of stories that remind me of the 2005 frame, the whole thing that got the enterprise going and what we had maintainers that were working until 2200 and swapping parts and engines, leaving the navy, and we were in a dive. today, either a lot of stories 70% of their craft they had on the ramp were not liable, not ready aircraft. you seem to get the sense at the operational level of maintenance and at the depot level of

maintenance that the maintainers are overwhelmed by the situation , so what gives -- pete: do think we need a new approach to that that would involve up with original aircraft manufacturer teams were also from the aspect of revisiting those strategies? do we have it right? vice admiral shoemaker: we learned a lot in that strike by .nventory management journey the main lines of effort, he mentioned deborah production, and the maintenance is done to get the airplanes beyond service life. that happens on regular intervals. then there is the opportunity to original service repairs and this cannot be done by old squad of a maintainers.

we had dedicated teams in each of our main concentrations. and -- main or, m -- maynor . -- thedership of their leadership up there, he and his team up there are engaged in moving forward with authority, working with oem to the front, alternative sources for parts we need, so i think -- i mentioned general davis and i, i think we learned from the legacy point, so we are flying across every series right now and we will brief them tomorrow, our third briefing, to update on the readiness plan. moving, slowly, and not as fast as i would like,

problemink we have the founded and i think we had the support we need in most cases from the city and then from our industry partners. : i do not know how much you can share, but you think you have it about right and if you could change something, would it be just resources, hours, people , more aircraft to fill the gap for f-35? if you could change a couple of things, what would they be? thinkdmiral shoemaker: i the first to be, and we have talked at length, the readiness accounts and resources. to the flighton account, and that translates into readiness. what we have seen since we have come through the heavy use

period and recovering from sequestration, we have seen that we are not fully able to execute those accounts. that they're coming back from deployment, but what is required and if we continue not to fly our accounts, but other accounts, the ones that pay for parts, the ones that fund the contract with logistic support, paper parts, ahead, thoseo buy accounts and one of the key ones, that is our system support. we get writing and's -- you get andiness issues and people processes that allow us to net things in the but quickly. those have not been resourced close to the requirements, and we dug a huge did it in every secretion, 11,

12, 13, all years and the invested, so we're trying to dig out of that readiness david we vet we dug. you mentioned buying more. as we approach our first 6000 hours, probably next year, we have got to make sure we get that right and we're partnering with work industry to look for additional capacity beyond the organic depot, and we will have to do that great if we look at where we are from the reporting, we cannot afford to have rhinos with 50% of the fleet with time managing, and we have got to keep that number down about 1/5 as the target comes of that will require combination of organic and oem support to do that. that is a big concern. up to thell open it

audience but i cannot ask you theout this alibi, which is report and since 2009, there has been an increase in incident in the cockpit of decompression and hypoxia and significant safety issues. can you tell us where we are at? vice admiral shoemaker: inside enterprise, our number one safety item and focus, and we are -- there are lots of things you are learning. rehabbed engineers engaged, smart guys, working on ways to better understand the generating system, where we have the camera preservation then has issues and we have adjusted the cockpit, adjusted emergency procedures and we have been after the fleet --talk about how the main

the maintainer's work and test for those modes. we have breathing operational devices in practice and if he ever get in an airplane, the t-45, a practice the practice say get a sense of what hypoxia is like. there are contaminants in the and engineers are figuring out ways to filter and identify that. i think we see an increase in the reporting. i think part of that this increased to awareness. guys are coming back and saying, look, there is nothing wrong with the reporting this. we need to make sure we understand all the failures. i think we are doing a good job of that. oem's to get the solution here. scrubbers that

clean the air in the old box and we came with the new design for that and that is coming as soon as we can accelerate, so we're falling -- we are putting a full part press in this. i think with the witness across importance ofthe understanding emergency procedures and when you comply with those, i think it is manageable. get or before we get to the engineering solutions , i think we have done what we mercyom awareness and procedures in the fleet. pete: got it. thank you. i would like to open it up. we have microphones. i ask that you ask the question and identify yourself and we will start with this gentleman right here. thank you. john harper with national defense magazine. admiral, you mentioned design challenges regarding in unmanned

srrcraft for the tanker and i mission prey to what extent do or generation5 aircraft to help stop capabilities and to what extent does that further exasperate design challenges? vice admiral shoemaker: remember back to u class, that was part of our initial design of the performance parameters we were looking for, and i think there is strategic portfolio review that happened recently at the depth level. a need for the taking role, and i think mentioned tanking is the place where it is most appropriate. latest rounds of things you have not stressed, survivability. if you look at the way you are going or you would conduct mission tanking, he had push something out ahead of everybody who can watch other airplanes get up there at range and tanks.

yourself, andt by it does not have survivability, you have to a she know where you are sending it, so does not get shot down. i think if you look at where we have been with the initial chipset, they have some designed already been helped in that survival. there is a way to capitalize on existing designs in what we come to in terms of -- i would not --l it compromised situation but what we come to a 2025, i think there are ways to take it manage of the ships already out there. i think it was going to be the old u class and we would use that as the eyes and ears, that environment has definitely won and that survivability piece and self portion of it. the article recently talked about stuff tanker and they do m-225, soether with

we will continue to work that and that is what we need to get that to the fleet as soon as we can so they can practice and integrated with the air wing and see where it best fits maybe into the support going into consistency. pete: ok, this gentleman right here. from the washington institute for policy. when the air force pivoted to platforms in the past years, they had to solve problems related to force management. what is the state of the navy pilot force and what challenges facing you see in the next 10 years to 15 years? vice admiral shoemaker: just across the force? >> in general and if you see challenges related to the growth of unmanned heights of ability or the navy. vice admiral shoemaker: at least that with what we see from a pilot perspective and maybe retention.

a lot of discussion in the paper about airport challenges to keep pilots around. monitorrk closely and the state of naval aviation from amending perspective, i think we do not have a shortage right now. we had a retention trend, or a ticket about 2009 and we so they cannot that a little bit, but we still have that process and selectivity and it is a quality across the board as removed from junior offices to squadron ceos, but we see at the initial decision point, when requirement is up, we see that take great on bonuses and don't keep the continuation pay. that has trended down slightly. we are still in the place in the in the postd commander retention, guys leaving command after squadron command, that has the and has come to my attention, as well,

but there are some things in place that start to turn back. the two that i am watching closely that the cost of force i ahead to thear project next year, we do not see a shortage in pilots. airlines are hiring, some challenges i described and if you are in a squadron for a city for a long time, you may not begin in the same flight hours istears are and that frustrated virginia officers who want to be good in their platform. across the force, we are ok now it paying attention to those trends. chosen in fire scouting and triton, is to expand on the internal community that we don't those, like the fire scout, or communities are doing that and put the detachments forward and the combination will do both, helicopters and unmanned. the other will do the same thing.

they can do that going forward. still working on that m q-25 and how to integrate that, whether it is a community or a community like that de-to community, given it is -- it's isr tanking. that is the one we are working, but unlike the air force, i do not think we will be or where we will create an unmanned community, but we are working through those and that mc-25.ion in terms of pete: this gentleman in the middle. >> good morning. lucas tom, fox news. there has been an increase in crashes in naval aviation in the past years. would you call that a crisis question mark vice admiral shoemaker: -- call that the crisis? vice admiral shoemaker: as i go back 10 years and watch

the trended naval aviation, overall, they are coming down. it was 2014, not a great year for us. we have had a rash of mishaps and we went two thirds of this year with one class alpha, and then we had three in the span of eight days. as hard as it is to explain how he went two thirds of the year with one, the same as with three and eight days. those and the at last couple of years trying to make a tie to revenues and proficiency, in every case, that is not there. there are lower-level mishaps, ground related mishaps with experience levels of folks that may play into it as they were kind of planes and with airplanes around, but i look at the trends and the target of forces that give each of the commanders to get toward the from 14 to 15 to a we are today and the transfer

may be aviation is coming down, so i would not characterize it as a crisis. do you type to readiness or lack of proficiency in review of those mishaps, you cannot make that connection. there of the crew resource management things but not in direct time to impact. i think because we are focused mentioned-- when i the challenges of maintenance phase and digging out of the bathtub, those squadrons are proactive in how they manage risk until they are backed up to good level. pete: here in the front. with u.s. naval institute news. you talked about the issue of your pilots not having access to all the flight available, and general davis has talked in specific detail about how that

affects different communities. can you characterize how those ready paragraphs are affecting the different communities? i justmiral shoemaker: had a meeting with all my committee, doors and the update me on that frs production and how the squadrons are doing. i asked him to go back and give affected andost what were the pilots getting on average and the two most impacted by the airplane challenges are street fighters and c2. in all cases, they were the lowest, so it was all averaging 14 hours and maintenance phase. do find ae what we few years ago as capital hard deck. not ideal, but if that is the average, there are some down in single digits and some above

that, and they are managing that. general davis talked at length about some squadrons for not dotime and they do this readiness as we do as a response plan model, i do not state ofare in that readiness from that perspective. i watched that closely and have been tracking every month and get those reports and their fine, but it is below what we and i and it is above think i squadron ceos are doing a good job of managing it. pete: over here on the right side >>. thank you. -- right side. >> thank you. you mentioned it being 50% complete, are they going to continue p3?

i they continue in the p3, interested in your concerns over the face of the loss in the squadron [indiscernible] vice admiral shoemaker: mike crane is the naval forces reserve and that is a conversation we have had with our resource sponsors in d.c. what do we do? routinelyparticipated at the great active reserve there. it is not in the plan right now to attend just in them -- now to transition them. if we finished the p3 to pa and active side to fill gaps for key platforms and capabilities they -- to what youhe mentioned, if we had limited

resources, absolutely. that would be the right thing to andith transition integration for that community. we are not in that position right now, so we're watching that closely. he living that around for a little while because they are still flying p3's. if that is what we leave them in, they will get the best of the breed for the airplane, but right now, there is not a plane to transition in the current environment. pete: this lady in the front. megan myers navy time. theuestion is in terms of offspring, what are you doing to address the terms of safety and to carry as much cargo? a safetyral shoemaker: record, i am not hearing that in the fleet. there were some growing planes

-- growing pains earlier. i think they are happy with the safety record and performance and our guys saw the same thing as they were operating. if you look at the cargo side, it is slightly smaller they .ould put in the c2 a couple few less passengers, but the way you do reconfiguring of the seed size to give you opportunity to do some passenger-cargo mix and quickly reconfigure what we did not have , i think if we put in the extended range package and be part of the cmv 22, it will be out in the range and they miles, around 1100 plus so i think we look at this specifically during the capacity of people and cargo, and i think although it is slightly smaller, it brings the ability to come out at night.

you brought it out numerous times at night to do may be a third run or third supply run, .o that was value added other week gave up a little bit with people and cargo, i think the flexibility will be good. pete: could you elaborate on if there are any surprises with others with the recent testing, and specifically, could he speak to the impact of operating the aircraft, flight deck and ability to generate the source? vice admiral shoemaker: the airbus really liked the flexibility and probably the one comments -- heme has got to bring an airplane in in between cycles. what we have found is we quickly learned how to do this. if you are not refueling, he in and out, done in 20 minutes. forcannot leave it turning

long. we found with congress that we determinearn how to we could do that in 20 minutes to 30 minutes. a little over 30 minutes with cargo and easily 20 minutes of passengers on and off. that is in between cycles. the biggest outside the flight is, when you bring some kind of osprey from the ship, but you do not have to man up all of the resting gear, so it takes about six folks to launch and recover and about 40 or so to manage [indiscernible] that is some unique operating benefits i think that come with osprey. cargog as we package the in the right way and take advantage of the opportunity to all forklifts on and off, and there is lots we have learned,

but i think we can make it fit inside and really take full advantage of but osprey would bring. pete: thanks. right here, their growth. "politico."ght with are you pushing for the navy to continue buying super hornets so, should, and if that be taken to a repeat to the f-35? vice admiral shoemaker: first question, yes. as i look ahead to our ability to make sure as we modernize or do the service life extension on rhinos, and plan for a certain amount that we will be out reporting to maybe get that year-long process done to take them to the next five our mile stone and we through what that would be. 20 -- 25% can manage to 30%, we will still accept

risk in what we can ensure squadron sent airplanes they need throughout the farp and to ---t through the next 20 the next years, 2025. i think that helps pay for some against thee hedge odd reporting numbers. it also -- that is a platform that will continue to modernize. i call it a 4.5 gem platform as a. up and partner with f-35. not to say we don't -- we absolutely need enough-35 as soon as you can get it. we have been a lipid behind timeline, and that is part of our legacy challenges right now. will get f-35 to the fleets and when you present but together, they bring a very good complement in terms of if you call that a high-low mix, my little part is super hornet. we are in a good spot.

pete: over here. with inside design. i just wanted to ask about the next generation fighter research development product, it is the maybe standing developing requirements for that project and to what extent we cooperate with the air force? vice admiral shoemaker: work has and that is a brief i am giving tomorrow admiral miller. of talked about whether that future platform and bringing unmanned to the ship environment quickly and learning from that is key because i think that will help inform the future for that next generation. yes, would be partner with the air force? ido not know the answer but

know there have been growing pains and we did the joint program for f-35 and we started it with commonality, so as will attend it, we have evolved to two different platforms. life a challenge, but there are benefits of doing that and when we cannot partner with air force, we certainly will when we look at unique capabilities with prices for eventual super hornets and we need to make sure that we are considering that, as well. we are involved in it. i have not been involved heavily and i will get an update tomorrow from where we stand to help shape that. that-35's andon on batch of its it brings, i think we will learn from maintaining the m-225. pete: other points? right here.

>> i am jack, unaffiliated. what about launch and recovery systems? how happy are you at what you have and how would you like to see that evolved in the next five years to 10 years? follow up, do you want to see carriers get bigger or smaller, especially with regard to that capability? vice admiral shoemaker: what we have right now and are numerous class is very reliable. i think they are doing well. we have new technologies and you are well aware of the election i know the aircraft system and it catapults. i think that has gone very good. we have operated those on ship power and we have done shots into the james river. i think that is going very well. that is a little more concerning because unlike our legacy systems, we are operating with two different essentially peters

-- feeders. the water twisters are drums the rest of the cable's house. of software,s airplanes ensure that we can every center in software airplanes that land with a drift or off-center. when the assembly did that for you a little bit with the new separate containers, if you will, that had to be built in the software to do that and there were can do that. i think it will eventually mature. it will give us the ability to lighter wider and much plane and heavier airplanes, so it allows us a little more space and a little more trade space to bring on new platforms, manned and unmanned. what i see in terms of advance resting is working through some a goodges but we will be

spot. we obviously have a proven system if we need. i think we have time for one more question. hi, hope with military.com. i know there was an osprey that made a flight with a 3-d printed part. i was curious to hear your thoughts about the full potential of that technology and how in the next five or 10 years it could change the game. it very much could and will. service jews were updated on that recently on that specific heart and they both chimed in on how we've got to get there sooner and faster and it's gotten to the point where we are bringing the cost down for that part.

this, it was not making sense for what it cost. if it's 10 times more expensive, do it now but if we start to do it more often we will bring that cost difference down. that will allow those deployed on ships to have those planters -- printers. too depots around the world print as we need, throwing away reliance on a much longer supply system. but tremendous capability and them to doof being that -- we've got to be able to we will quickly start to use it and see what we can make and take full advantage of what that brings in terms of supply support. >> thank you for your time

today. i know your time is precious. this is a terrific opportunity for this audience to get a chance to talk to you when you are here and to get your perspective, which is truly different. of not just lot future and planning activities but community management and the essential execution activities and hearing you talk about it altogether was very informative. i.s., wealf of cs thank you for our time -- for your time and we need to acknowledge our sponsors, lockheed martin and huntington eagle. without whom this program would not be presented so thank you very much. [applause]

>> how close were you looking at with the romeos and the fire scouts? >> that is all being done in terms of that community. they are able, when they are deployed to do both missions. but wey be the model use still don't know how to make and the 25.t now and with community, that is how we go. about the m2 25, if it doesn't have stealth characteristics wouldn't it just be shot down? how do you work that probability? >> yes, it would.

that is why i think you have got to manage and figure out what assets you have before you can move in. somebody has to help understand. some ships give us a little bit of advantage and if you look and operate and understand the integration better, you make it work. >> would you need platforms that could take out and tire capabilities to enable that? -- anti-air capabilities to take that -- enable that? >> my interest would be talking ships and how we track.

you've got other platforms. , not stealthy.y but something has to help us move. that is why the integration of both subs and surface are all-important so you don't just push out into someplace where you are not sure what happens. we will build that across the joint force. >> we got to go. sorry. >> thank you.

>> finishing up this discussion on the future of naval aviation, if you missed any of today's event we will have it online where you can watch anytime. we have more live programming coming up. join us in two hours when ben meeting on hold a cyber security at 1:00 p.m. eastern. back fromrdin is break on tuesday, december 6. fall,on the agenda this federal legislation for fiscal tor 2017, expecting congress consider prevention programs for the zika virus, defense policy, and impeachment proceedings against irs commissioner. congress is back on -- in session on tuesday, september 6.

we will have live coverage on c-span six. jeh johnson has been dispatched to louisiana in the wake of historic flooding in that state. he is expected to talk to the media about 2:45 eastern. in campaign 2016, this picture from donald trump of a photo gathered from his intelligence briefing in trump tower. you can see senator jeff sessions, rudy giuliani, and congressman peter king. also at the table is the newly appointed campaign manager kelly m conway. to the left is breitbart news website chair steve van, -- steve bannon. we've got some background on the recent cut -- from campaign changes.

>> this is the headline at washington post.com. trump shaking up the campaign and demoting his top advisor. robert costa has been joining -- following. >> good to join you. >> what is behind these changes? donald trump has been recently growing more and more frustrated by the attempts of his campaign chairman and others in his circle to constrain his rhetoric to make him more disciplined for the general election campaign. as he looked ahead to the political horizon to about 80 days left in the campaign, he decided to move away from those constraints and to elevate two long-time associates, steve bannan from breitbart news, to let trump in essence be trump. more free form, more aggressive and bellicose if necessary. >> and yet paul manafort remains

the chair of the trump campaign. why? >> there's a sense within trump's campaign that metaford has done fine in terms of stabilizing the aspects of the campaign in terms of building relationships with washington and republicans and his relationship with trump has been solid, they're the same generation, nearly the same age, more moderate republicans from the mid-atlantic northeast region of the country and both actually come from families who work in construction. -- maniford was his chief strategist when trump dropped in the polls. he needed to return to the populous core of his campaign and he needed to be the trump like he was in the primaries. he's never been comfortable as a scripted trump reading from teleprompt ers and all that, and steve bannan, a populist and businessman and media savant and

kelly and conway, it is a campaign trump is more comfortable with. >> let me go back to paul manafort and the story about his link with former ukraine president victor yanakovich and his party, the $12 million in undisclosed cash payments which we point out they denied. but were these stories behind this latest move by donald trump? >> they were not according to my sources within the campaign campaign. while manafort has grown unhappy with the scrutiny especially around ukraine and the possible payments he may have received, that was a cloud over him but it was not the cloud that necessitated trump making the move. trump has been more unhappy with the way mannafort, is a thimble

-- a symbol for trump being less trump. head over the weekend when he took over the fundraiser in the hamptons in new york and met with some donors who said "you are being tamed." for trump being less anafort andr aboutm his dealings were a part of for whiteersations some for white some time, that wasn't the impetus it seems to show him being pushed out of his top spot. it should be noted of course that manafort is keeping his title. he is remaining the campaign chairman and strategist, it's just that he's layered. >> steven bannon, a former navy officer and banker and until this week, the head of breitbart news. what is his experience in running campaigns and why did donald trump report him? -- appoint him? >> news. trump has a rapport with bannon for years.

he runs breitbart news which is a hard-edged news site. it's antiestablishment. it's positioned against not only the democratic party and the left but against the republicans. and bannon, he inherited the site in a sense from andrew breitbart who passed away a few years ago and bannon is not someone who comes out of the traditional campaign world. he's a media operator. he hasn't had any businesses. he's been a banker, done some investments, different kinds of private projects. he's a hollywood conservative, kind of a hollywood radical, a bon vazant who enjoys having a lot of friends and talking about issues and being colt combative -- combative when necessary with his opponents who are more liberal. he's been ahead of this party towards populous nationalism that's been epitomized in congress and championed by jeff sessions but in the media world, that strain of conservative

orthodoxy or views has been championed by breitbart and by bannon. >> kelly ann conway is a veteran republican pollster. what will her portfolio include? portfolio has included trying to expand trump's appeal to women. particularly women in swing states like north carolina and pennsylvania and ohio where trump is struggling with the polls. and to make trump see more to womene and likable of both parties which see trump -- they are a bit skittish about. they don't want him to have the nuclear codes or are more tempted to the democratic side on that temperamental question. >> when it comes to donald trump she worked with the pollster frank luntz in the republican party and she is focused -- her company -- on women's issues for both corporate and political

quiet -- clients. >> with regard to those you have talked in republican party circles, not necessarily directly involved in the trump campaign, do they think these changes will make a difference? there is a mixed reception. >> there is a belief nearly among all my sources that this decision was driven by trump himself. that he wants to run the campaign on his instincts and terms. the idea that bannon and conway will change trump, nobody believes that. it is going to be a different campaign. manafort is trying to focus on party unity. n is a rabble-rouser and the media guy. he is somebody naturally inclined to let from do as he wishes.

there is going to be an emphasis, more than we've seen of trump as an agent of change and a washington outsider. those are the things that animate bannon's thinking. to have that as a strategy in this closing chapter. been reading that paul manafort has been frustrated in his dealings with donald trump. is that accurate? >> is accurate that many top aides of donald trump have grown weary or exasperated at times with his stubborn refusals to adapt or change. in politics, you have candidates changing and pivoting during general elections. with trump, you see a candidate reluctant adduce that -- to do that. gut and ishis got --

a mirror of his own self rather than trying to become a package political product. there is a sense with those close to trump that he thinks at this point in his life, after all he has been through this year, he might as well keep doing what he is doing rather than trying to become somewhat conventional. trumpe changes inside the campaign and the reporting of robert cost available online at washington post.com. for campaign 2016, c-span continues on the road to the white house. >> this is not a reality tv show. this is as real as it gets. >> we will make america great again. ahead, live coverage of the presidential and vice presidential debates. on c-span and c-span.org.

monday, september 25 is the first presidential debate. on tuesday, october 4, mike pence and tim kaine debate along would -- at longwood university in virginia. washington university and st. louis host the second presidential debate leading up to the third and final debate between hillary clinton and donald trump at the university of nevada on october 19. live coverage of the debates on c-span. listen live on the c-span 80 -- ap[. at -- radio >> now a pair of political thence scholars discuss campaign styles of hillary clinton and donald trump and the controversies of donald trump on the section -- second amendment.

>> thank you, claudia. of and all of you for coming tonight to hear from our distinguished guests who are not psychics or pundits or prognosticators but political scientists and historians. elections and the results of elections and everything that happens in between. in this year on the outsider, status quote politicians are having difficulty predicting with platitudes and promises that are falling flat because the electorate is angry that donald trump has changed the narrative and not necessarily for the better. but rather than predict the unpredictable, ucla political scientist lynn maverick will begin to explain the unpredictable.

she will speak for 10-15 minutes. then alan we'll explain his prediction system that has predicted every election since 1984. he might venture a guess about the outcome of this wild ride we have been on. but if he throws up his arms and says it is all too crazy and anything could happen, we might hold it against him. conversationhave a for an extensive q&a with our audience. the presidencyr have just been expanded so no more complaining about having to of twor the lesser evils. we not only have donald trump and hillary clinton, gary johnson and jill stein but as of yesterday we can now include kevin mcmillan, a mormon bachelor with the cia and is -- who is chief policy director of

the house republicans and is now running for president representing the "never trump." movement. here -- her research focuses on campaigns, elections and political advertising and she is the offer -- author of campaign the economy and presidential campaigns and co-author of the logic of american politics. "er latest book is "the gamble and a forthcoming book about the 2016 elections is called "shattered." ladies and gentlemen. thank you very much. i brought some showing tell items with me, so if you have always wondered what it might be like to be a ucla undergraduate

this is going to be your 10 minutes to experience that. i am pleased to be here. thanks for that introduction and thanks ally for having that conversation with me today. i want to talk about how we are 90 days out and everybody wants to know what is going to happen so i am going to talk about that in three ways. i am going to talk about that in three ways. we are going to talk about the nation's economy and how that serves as a backdrop in front of takesthis great play place and then we will talk about the candidates, particularly because they all come with constraints. the third is messaging. the way to think about messaging is to think about leveraging the constraints that these candidates bring with them and that is really the trick. mixes system, my system

these things together and comes out with some sense at the end of about what you might expect to happen. that is where we are going in the next couple of minutes. we will start with the state of the nation's economy. thing,only remember one one thing only from this 10 minute course, this is the thing to remember. incumbent parties in growing economies typically win presidential elections. this is an aggregate relationship. the opposite is also true. in shrinkingarties economies typically win presidential elections. so you can think of this like a referendum on the incumbent of thebout the state nation's economy. not your personal pocketbook, but how is the country doing? that is the relationship that i like to talk about when i think about studying -- setting the

stage for any presidential election and i think mostly the post-new deal era. since the late 40's. how does that look? here is a little bit. what i have got for you on the y axis is the incumbent party share of the two-party vote in the presidential elections that i plotted. on the x axis i am showing you the growth rate of the nation's change in terms of gdp in the first six months of the election-year. are things growing or franking? as you can see, as growth in the -- as -- wrong button growth in the nation's economy increases, the incumbent party's share of the vote goes up. there is a nice positive relationship here. i totally get that a monkey flipping a coin would be right about which of our two parties is going to win an election 50% of the time.

so if you want to impress me, you've got to do better. this prediction will be right, be the basic protection will right about 75% of the time so it does better than the monkey and i think that is good. the next logical question is what about the first six months of this year? we just got that second-quarter number. now it is time for the red dot. right at 50%. that is what the 2016 growth number predicts. equilibrium -- that is an important phrase -- but in the lastum based on several decades, this election is meant to be a sweeper. it is going to be close. -- squeaker. it is going to be close. you can't be barack obama saying

those republicans brought you global financial crisis. time to change horses. reagan't be ronald saying it is morning again in america where people are going to work more than ever before. can claim thatte message either as the challenger or the incumbent. they are going to fight to frame this election for you and they are going to fight to frame your perception of the real economy which is what has been going on the last two days or they will fight to change focus off of the economy since it doesn't help either one of them in any profound kind of way. they need to change the topic. they can't change the topic to just any issue. the issue needs to be three criteria. you have to find an issue on which public opinion is lopsided. it doesn't do you any good to refocus the election off of the nation's economy and on to something else on which the public is divided 50-50.

55-45 or 60-40. the second thing, you have to be closer to most voters than your opponent. it doesn't do you any good to refocus the election onto an issue where you are helping the other guy. you have got to know where you stand and you had better know where public opinion is, and you had better be on the lopsided side. this issue has, to be or can be made to be important. you can't colonize the moon, you can't run on something that you really, no matter how much time and effort you put into it, you are not convincing people it is more important than the nation's economy which everyone thinks is important. it has to be topical. a couple of ideas about how candidates have a hard time with this. this is because of their constraints.

what kind of constraints do i mean? some are oldg and and some are experienced and some are inexperienced. they have taken positions on these things, they have records, they come with constraints. the trick is to find those constraints and leverage them. just a couple of examples. john kennedy is running against richard nixon and kennedy is young and inexperienced and nixon has a lot of experience. he has been the vice president. kennedy turns that election into an all-out war for the future of the free world. an all-out war with the soviets. what does he tell us? they are better at everything, better at science, they are going to get to the moon first, their kids are better at math, their art is more beautiful, heir poetry is nicer, and talks about everything and how we are going to be better at all of these things.

turns on thisaign idea of the new frontier because he is young and nixon is old. he is a new idea and nixon is part of the past. what is worse? the election comes back down to what kennedy calls the missile gap. it didn't exist but he didn't know that. not too many new that truthfully. how is nixon constrained? he is part of the administration that perpetuated the gap. there is nothing richard nixon can do to shake that constraint. that is the kind of thing i am talking about. in 1968, nixon leverages crime and fear and says we are going to restore law and order in a country reeling from the war in vietnam and the free speech movement, it is chaos. he leverages that. does thejimmy carter

same thing as a washington outsider running against the most inside the beltway washington insider you can find. he is appointed to the vice presidency and the presidency. there is nothing ford can do to shake that. he is the right guy at the right time or the guy who found the right constraint at the right time. it is not as easy as it sounds. i could be barry goldwater who went around the country talking about nuclear war and saying he wanted to love one into the kremlin -- a nuclear bomb. disabuse americans of their fear of the word nuclear. in 1964, most americans thought they would see world war iii in their lifetime and most americans thought they would die in it. going around the country telling people you are going to start world war iii, he has missed one of the criteria.

he found a lopsided issue that he was on the wrong side of. where are we in 2016? let's think about the messages that donald trump hillary clinton are trying to frame. it is worth pointing out that both of these messaging strategies were in place one year ago from right now. it is not the case that donald trump just thought of make america great again. this has been going on for a year and the same thing with hillary clinton. the key word is "again." when was it great? in the past. why in the past? as we were different. why are we different? you can finish that equation however you want but it is an isolationist kind of message and you can see very clearly how it counters how hillary clinton's "stronger together" message countered that.

they are trying to leverage the opposite ideas about the future of the country. here is a still image from one of donald trump's first campaign ads. wetalked about the things might be afraid of, security, terrorism, islamic terrorism -- in his words. he successfully did it in the republican party to divide the election by in group and outgroup attitudes based on race and ethnicity. i'm going to show you evidence of this so you understand what i am talking about. on the y-axis, donald trump's chair of the vote in republican contests in 2016. these are data from the american national election study got it in february. donald trump's share goes up while the other candidates shares go down. i got two different measures of this in group/outgroup

consciousness. white respondents were asked whether they thought it was likely that white people would lose jobs to minorities and the more likely you are to say that the more likely you are to vote for donald trump. here, he writes how important they think it is for whites to come together as a group. they call this white group consciousness and a relationship here. i can show you 10 more grass like this and they look the same. donald trump did not create these attitudes. he has just chosen to prime them in a way that divides the electorate. in theessfully did that republican primary and is largely successfully doing it now in the general election. hillary clinton talking about "stronger together." she wants everybody to come

together and that is her message. we are going to be better and greater if we are all in it. instead of just those of us who lived here in some previous. . .- previous period hillary clinton is expanding the democratic coalition. she is winning 30 points among educated college white women. that is a huge change. that is not about hillary clinton being a woman. she didn't win by that much in the primary against bernie sanders. that is about donald trump. college educated white women being offended by donald trump's machoism. party, expanded the losing college-educated white men by seven points that losing over how barack obama did. she is losing non-college-educated white men.

she is losing them huge. this white men story is more of a timeline story. these movements started between mccain and romney and now they are a bit more with trump. the women's story is completely episodic. that is about this election. where does that bring us to? of coal in the business aggregating or predicting outcomes but i will share a prediction by my colleagues at , august 9,who today updated their poll aggregating prediction to 86% likely that hillary clinton wins the presidency. keeping in mind that that is not her vote share. that is the probability, the chance, the likelihood that she will win. it is better that it's -- better than a chance that an nba basketball player makes a three throw -- free throw.

[applause] >> thank you lynn. an american political historian who teaches at american university. the whiteinclude protestant nation, the rise of the american conservative movement and the keys to the white house. his protection system has directly predicted the outcomeas of all elections since 1984. ladies and gentlemen, alan lichtman. >> thank you very much. you can all rest easy. i am not going to predict the victory of evan mcmillan. it is ok.

it is true i have been predicting elections since 1984, when i was nine but that is another story. you may think it is a prestigious thing, going around the world are taking the outcomes of american presidential elections. but i have to tell you, the only result of all of that is every four years, i make half of the country really really angry. so i hope i won't anger too many of you. i am not going to predict the outcome of this election. you are going to predict the outcome of this election. you have my little 13 keys to the white house? predict theg to election because the 13 keys is the world's only do-it-yourself election system. to have that privilege -- i am a professor, you have got to answer a pop quiz. first, how many of you have , or watched read

any of the punditry about this election? raise your hand. you all past the quiz except what you've got to do with that is take the advice of david hume, the great british philosopher, when he talked about works of superstition. consign it to the flames. .t is superstition, worthless it is not based upon a theory of how american presidential elections really work. that is why you've got to turn to a scientific system like the keys to the white house, which is actually based on a really simple theory. ont elections don't turn debates, speeches, advertising, issues, party loyalty or any of the things the media spends a billion dollars a year covering. rather, elections are simple. it is the joe the plumber theory.

anybody remember joe the plumber? the guy who asked obama a lot of obnoxious questions in 2008? imagine you hired joe the plumber to fix your pipes. joe the plumber breaks your pipes and flood your basement. are you going to hire joe the plumber? no. but if joe the plumber does a great job, you'll consider hiring him again. the same thing with presidential elections. if the party holding the white house governs well enough then the american people give them another four years. if they break the pipes to the country and flooded basement, do a really bad job, then the public turns them out. the 13 keys of the white house is a system for creating a model to demonstrate that theory and a decision rule for predictions.

now, -- lynn talked about her students -- i would love to tell you and my students that i came up with the keys to the white ande by ruining my eyes years of contemplation, in libraries and archives, deep thoughts but if i were to tell you that, to quote the late, not so great richard nixon, that would be wrong. i came across the keys to the white house like a lot of discoveries. it is interesting how these things derived by accident but even though i am based at american university i discovered the keys to the white house right here in southern california when i spent a year at caltech. there, i met the world's leading authority in earthquake prediction. -- he said to me, lichtman, you and i are going to collaborate.

being such a brilliant guy, i said absolutely not. they may care a lot about earthquakes here in southern california but i have got to go back to d.c.. nobody cares about earthquakes in d.c.. he said no, i want to try a harder problem. predicting american presidential elections. he was a member of the soviet scientific delegation. they came to washington in 1963 and negotiated the most important treaty in the history of the world. what was that treaty? thatuclear test ban treaty stops us from poisoning the atmosphere and mother's milk and the earth. he said he became fascinated "ih politics that he said, have lived in the soviet union, predicting elections? forget it.

but you know a lot about american politics. the greatest selection in the world for the american presidency." but ight this guy was kgb had no secrets. we put to the test my theory that elections are primarily referenda on the strength and performance of the party holding the white house and the opposition party doesn't matter much. bys is 1981 at caltech looking at every american presidential election from 1860 to 1980. , to our surprise, that we were able to come up with the model, the 13 keys which are simple true-false questions that can be answered prior to an upcoming election and for an answer of true favoring the election of the party in power. that is the way they are phrased. .e came up with a decision rule

if six or more are false, if six or more go against the party in power, they lose. even with the six keys against the party in power, they win. six strikes and you out -- you are out. all you've got to do is be able to count to six. what do a couple of academics do when they come up with a big discovery like this? published it in an academic where we expect for a five people to actually read it. that is what we did. we published the proceedings. but six people read it and the sixth person was the science reporter for the associated press. i am back in washington in 1981 at american university, young professor, i open the newspaper and there is an article which said "odd couple discovers keys

to the white house." it had to be crazy russian physicist and the crazy american historian. thinking idden i was was in the paper. i published my first prediction in the washingtonian magic -- magazine in april of 1982. i predicted the reelection of ronald reagan. now you may say the reelection of ronald reagan is easy but here is your next pop quiz. what was the state of the economy in 1982? horrible. asryone is talking about it a one term presidency so that was not an easy prediction. it caught someone's attention. i get a call from a man with a heavy southern accent who says is thesor lichtman, this

political director of the ronald reagan white house. we want you to come to the white house." i said i think you got the wrong guy. if you don't know who we help water was, he died young of a brain tumor. he was karl rove before there was a karl rove and karl rove was a pale carbon copy of lee atwater. he didn't ask me to the white house to talk about history. he looked me in the eye and we got to what he really wanted to know. "what would happen if ronald reagan did not run again in 1984? " remember, six keys in your out. takeout ronald reagan, you lose the incumbency key.

you're going to lose the incumbent charisma key. he's five down and then he is going to have a big party contest and lose that she. -- that key. you go from three keys down and a sure win and -- 26 keys down in a sure loss. says the rest is history. in 1991 after was i had published by first look. the assistant to bill clinton asked me, based on your system, can george bush be beaten? i said look at my book and it shows he is a sure loser. i set the book to clinton along with a memo and the rest is history. now, let's turn our attention to this election.

the toughest election i have ever had to call. for obvious reasons. 2008, i called in 2005. i was notorious for saying the democrats could nominate someone out of the phone book and win. who had ever heard of barack obama back then? i called 2012 and 2010. why is this election so difficult? because it turns on one key and it is a very different key to call which is why i want your help. now the democrats have five keys against them. obviously, the mandate key. how did they do in the midterms? horribly. obviously, they have lost the sitting presidents. they lose the whole policy change because it goes term by term and nothing big was achieved this term.

they lose the incumbent party charisma key. even hillary clinton says "i don't have that magic." they also lose the foreign-policy success key. i thought the iran nuclear treaty has been a success but it has been a big bust. if it stays at five keys, the democrats win. if he goes to six keys the democrats lose. what is the sixth? key. the party contest this is such a difficult key to call. early on, i thought surely there was a big contest. that is the sixth key and the republicans are going to win but then something really strange happened that has never happened before in the history of our country. donald trump. precedentmp is such a

shattering candidate that he may be erasing the effect of the democratic contest. in other words, as bitter as the contest between hillary clinton and bernie sanders happened to be, it is being erased by the fact that all of clinton's supporters and the vast majority of sanders supporters can agree on one thing and one thing only. it would be a catastrophe to have donald trump as president which he may have proved today with his remarks about what supporters of the second amendment can do. by the way, he said after she is elected. it had nothing to do with how they were voting. i want you to think about this. do the democrats lose the contest key and lose the has donald trump erased the effects of the contest key? take a quick poll now.

how many of you think the democrats lose the contest? wow. i'm in the wrong or maybe right audience. you have now turned history. this group has now turned history. , i thinkan old saying it is chinese, that you live in interesting times. no doubt we have that here. thank you. thank you, alan. let me begin with lynn, because neither -- there is a certain amount of certainty in both of you and i would like to talk about the wildcard. i don't think you can rule out an october surprise in an era with the islamic state, and also you have, essentially, i think

you could make the case that the american people don't necessarily control their political destiny. in 1968, an obscure palestinian decided that bobby kennedy wouldn't be president and helped elect nixon. ayatollah from the middle east, he helped elect ronald reagan, including having jimmy carter twisting in the wind. you can argue that osama bin laden and saddam hussein helped wash certainly in 2004. do you really control your political destiny? wi -- with saw -- bogged down. >> i want to separate the bobby kennedy example from the others.

it is different if someone eliminates a front runner. the second set, then, i think it is interesting to think about, is it the occurrence of these events or is it what the candidates who are running in those moments that you are calling october surprises, what they do with those. that is an interesting thing to think about but in the background of all of that, i want to say that foreign-policy is rarely the thing that decides modern presidential election outcomes. even during the vietnam war, if reado back as i have and all the campaign stump speeches and all the political advertisements and all the news coverage in the new york times and the washington post of those campaigns, what you will learn is that neither one of the major party candidates were making the war in the at mom -- in vietnam

the number one message. someone is always trying to frame the state of the economy and the other person is always trying to shift off of the economy and onto an issue that meets those three criteria. the reason foreign-policy is never the choice is because of an october surprise. the world can change in an instant and if you have your whole campaign on smart diplomacy -- was that the hillary clinton theory? and then the world unraveled and you've got 10 days, you are losing. so mostly, candidates try to avoid owning the foreign-policy card because of that. >> but donald trump has played the isis card fairly prominently , saying they are incompetent so wouldn't it help him if there were an attack? >> the one thing -- there are many things unusual but the one

thing i want to talk about is, i think, this is why he is a good salesman. he has an uncanny ability to know how to sell his product. he reads the room so that when sanvent happens -- bernardino, paris, orlando, he knows instantly how that works in the service of his frame that he is trying to cast over this election. i don't want to say that he has made this election about foreign-policy. i think he has made this election about in groups/out groups attitudes and that those are separated on race and ethnicity and foreign-policy moments only work for him in the service of his frame because of the ethnic makeup of these moments. that is why they work for him. it is not about foreign-policy,

it is about your fear and he uses that. alan, ilen, -- mentioned donald trump changed the narrative and it seems to me that he has in a very profound buffaloedat is how he his way through the primary. do you think this is a permanent thing? mcneill overd the the years, the republicans and democratic politicians say "i respectfully disagree." it governor debate and now it is like "you are a scumbag ." can we recover? if donald trump loses, so we can recover from this. if he wins i don't think we can. you have got to look at the

history. it is not pretty. answerho claim "i am the , i am the answer, only i can change things for the better. and it doesn't matter what i say, you have to believe me and trust in me as a person." i don't like to draw analogies to foreign nations but you have to reach out to find an analogy to donald trump and i have to say, many times when you see similar candidates you have folks say "it can't happen here, we have checks and balances, a bureaucracy that can keep him under control." that is simply wrong. it has not worked out that way for country after country around the world that has come under mansway of this kind of one type of rule.

i think our country is on a dangerous precipice. i think we are in danger of going somewhere with this country where we have never gone before. he has already gone where no candidate has gone before, not just but 10, 15, 20 times. i have to tell you, it doesn't matter how may times he is criticized, it does not matter how he times he is caught up in lies or statements, it makes no difference whatsoever to donald trump because he has no shame. you can't shame him into changing. all of these people who say he pivot and change, it will not happen. donald trump has been this person throughout his career and life. essentially a con man. doing the same thing he did at "trump