"after words tonight at 9:00 .m. eastern on booktv. >> >> yes>> and is brought to you today by your cable or satellite provider. susan: as we count down to the election, our guest is david mcintosh, former member of congress in indiana and now president of the club for growth, which has a strong presence in the election. thank you for being with us. david: my pleasure. susan: let me introduce you to our reporters -- scott wong covers congress for "the hill" and bill allison covers campaign finance for bloomberg news.

reporter: the club for growth spent about $10 million this cycle trying to defeat donald trump in the gop primary. i wonder if you can play monday morning quarterback for us a little bit and are there things you would have done differently knowing what you know today? would you have spent all of that money on house and senate races in stat or was there a different strategy you would have employed in terms of trying to stop donald trump? david: knowing what we know today confirms, i think, the problems we saw early on with the trump nomination for us. at this point, we are not engaged in the presidential race, we are not part of the never trump group, in fact, i'm hoping he does well because our down ballot races are affected by how well he does in the presidential race.

my friend mike pence is a great pick for vice president. that being said, i think there were other candidates in that primary who would be leading in the race right now if they had won the primary and been chosen. we ended up endorsing one of them, ted cruz, but there were others as well who could have carried the republican free market and small government message. reporter: but the voters did not choose that. david: in the indiana primary, my home state, trump one and the club for growth said our mission now is to focus on the senate and house races and that is what we have been doing to carry the effort there. reporter: are there any specific places where you guys plan to

spend these next couple of weeks? we have heard some chatter about club for growth spending a million dollars in the senate race in louisiana on behalf of john fleming. is that something you're looking at? david: we have endorsed john fleming. we are bundling contributions to him from our members and looking very hard at that race to see whether there is a role for the super pac to come in with an independent expenditure. that means it would need to happen fairly soon. what is clear in that race is that john is among republicans, the real candidate who can win in a runoff because he is the real champion for the republican message, less spending, smaller government. a very good candidate.

polling we looked at showed it was roughly that and that can we tried to ascertain what's the best strategy to help john when that position into the runoff in the next couple of weeks. reporter: sorry to bring it back to trump, but when you spend the $10 million, i think you spent about 20 million on all of the different club for growth entities. congratulations. you are doing better on fundraising this time. you have a couple of races -- you have a house race in kansas, the race in florida, where you had other groups spending. did the strategy of playing in the presidential race, which you had not done in 2012 impair your ability to defend those candidates? david: this was the first time the club has engaged in that primary, chiefly because of who the candidates were. three of the people running, the club helped get their senate seat. great candidates, strong advocates for progress policies.

one of the things i committed to our membership was that we would not take money from what we had raised for congressional races. it was new money dedicated to the presidential race. i think it was a good call. we were right about what happened if trump was the nominee and i think what it showed was the club had the capacity in iowa to influence the outcome. we were there and ted cruz one that. several other states as well. what we did not have was the ability to counter the earned media donald was able to garner. i think the strategy was right. a couple of house races in particular, we were dramatically

outspent by an ethanol industry subsidy going to candidates on the other side in those republican primaries. one of them was defeated as a result i predict he will be back. they fell victim to the group that wanted to keep ethanol subsidies. we have to up our strategies in the future to anticipate that group will be there because we are basically from no crony capitalism and we will try to elect leaders that will stand for that principle. reporter: another principle you have stood by his free-trade. in this election, you had bernie sanders and donald trump doing very well with anti-trade message.

i have talked to people around town to talk to it as it becoming a third rail of american politics. hillary clinton backed off of the tpp and so did one of your predecessors, senator pat toomey, who came out in the "pittsburgh tribune," saying that while he was supportive of free trade, he stood against the tpp. what does this mean for the future of trade? there has always been a particular concern for club for growth. is this going to be a harder message to sell? david: i think what you have seen happen -- and you are correct -- it has been a bad election cycle for the notion of free trade in most policies. mostly as a label and in a way, it got caught up in a xenophobic wave taking place on other issues.

they will have to go back and explain the benefits of free trade, the millions of jobs in america that come as a result of trading with other countries and selling goods overseas. we took it for granted everybody knew that and we mentioned several on both sides of the aisle because they knew that benefit. when this tidal wave hit that we lost all of these jobs because of nafta and other things, there was not a good, coherent answer. one of my projects for next year is to spend a lot of time talking to members and talking to american voters in their district about what we get from free trade and why free-trade is important to sustain the

pro-growth dollars. no amount of stimulus, whether spending or tax stimulus would counter that. that it would take the economy. abandoning free trade is not an option. if you look back after the great depression hit, when we put terror of, it cost a decade of economic growth and the worst depression in our history and we cannot repeat that. our job is to understand that we took it for granted everybody knew that and now we realize they don't and we have to tell people the truth about it. susan: some of the leaked communications from the hillary clinton campaign seems to underscore that she is very much a free trader philosophically. i wonder if you see a scenario where you could work with a president hillary clinton? david: that's a good question.

i have not thought about that universe yet. [laughter] i'm not a supporter of hillary clinton, but i think whoever is president is something we would try to work for and make sure we did reach good, sustainable free-trade. one thing we can do to help in the club is with republicans, whoever is president, present the benefit of free markets. you have identified an area where the club can play a positive role. reporter: if we can stick with the issues, which is refreshing -- david: you did not hear much in this debate. reporter: you studied with antonin scalia. how should the supreme court vacancy be handled? if hillary clinton is elected president, should mitch mcconnell and senate republicans confirm merrick garland in the lame-duck session if hillary clinton is elected or should they wait until after 2017 and

see who she sends up? david: i think the standard they should use, whether it is garland or hillary's future appointment is an agreement that they will only confirm judges and justices who agree the role of the judge is to interpret the law, not to be a super legislature or not to represent constituent groups. i think it would be very appropriate and has been done throughout history for center republicans to say that is unconstitutional in our view and we will not confirm anybody who takes the view that they are super legislators and not just interpreting law, not making it.

they should set out a standard and judge the nominees and that may mean they are going to decide to reject it. reporter: in the last presidential debate, hillary clinton reiterated her intention to introduce comprehensive immigration reform. donald trump has made quite a theme out of immigration. is the club going to take a position? is it something you hold your membership on? david: we won't engage in that debate. it's not part of our portfolio of economic and limited government issues.

i'm sure it will be. but i'm sure the club for growth will engage in one way or another. reporter: there was a gop strategist who was recently quoted saying the club for growth slice of the republican pie has shrunk significantly over the course of this election. given that you are both anti-trump and antiestablishment, after this election is over, do you plan to reassess things, take stock, and figure out if you are going to stay the course or go in a different direction? david: i was just on a phone call with my chairman this morning and touched on that topic. what we will do at the club for growth is continue the course on the issues we think are the right one for the country and candidly, the republican party should be the vision carrier for moving those forward. that is limited government, progrowth tax policy, free trade, less spending, increasing the private sector over the government sector. we will double down on being a proponent for that.

you will see that divide in the republican party that is a personality divide right now. in the end, what unites republicans is our agenda. contrary to what the strategist was sharing with you, i think our approach to what the republican party should do, one of my friends when i took the job, said david, what are you going to be for? i mentioned progrowth policies and free-trade and he said you are going to be for the republicans being republican. and i do think that is what we are. to try to reassess and say let's be political about it would give up what the club is all about.

we would go back forcefully and i would advocate those issues. to embrace those, that's the point of unity between the trump wing and establishment wing where we can show leadership in those areas. reporter: that trump wing and establishment wing is going to continue after the election. you and the club for growth are close to the freedom caucus members, including chairman jim jordan who you know very well. there has been some chatter from the freedom caucus about possibly running a challenger or backing a challenger to speaker ryan slated for one week after the november 8 election. given what you have seen from speaker ryan in his first week

on the job and how he has handled the budget and spending issues, do you think a change in leadership is needed at the speaker level or are you prepared to support speaker ryan for another couple of years? david: the club does not get involved and take decisions on leadership races. that said, i think paul ryan will emerge as the leader in the house. my advice to him would be bring in the freedom caucus as part of your leadership structure. have the leadership at the table with the conservatives and you will be strengthened as a leader to unify the party. i think paul is the guy who could carry that off and be able to articulate the unity and vision around progrowth ideas. he will have a hard task whoever wins the presidency because as we talked earlier, ideas have not been part of this campaign. he will be the one who has to lead on those ideas. reporter: you believe when the dust settles that all right will remain as speaker of the house?

david: i think he is naturally positioned to do that. i want to be careful because i'm a former member myself and don't get a vote on that. there are 435 members who do and i don't want to be presumptuous and predict what they will or won't do, but i think he is in a position where he can build a coalition leadership team within the republican party. it will be a smaller majority for republicans, so he's going to need to build the outreach and stop the fighting. susan: you mentioned smaller majorities. will you handicap where this election is going to turn out? david: we are focused chiefly on david: we are focused chiefly on the senate races.

susan: view expressed concern about the down ballot. david: that is one of the ones we are looking at. right now, trump is behind. if he closes the gap, win or lose, republicans have a good chance of hanging on to the majority, probably just buy one or two votes. two races we are looking at and spending over a million dollars is pennsylvania. that's probably the number one target for the democrats if you look at where the money is being spent. we are engaged in ads hoping to balance out the spending. he has been able to sustain that despite clinton opening a lead and the disparity of the funds being spent. the other ones we are engaged in his wisconsin.

around town, people wrote that office one republicans would lose. i didn't really believe that, so i had a pollster go back at the end of summer and tested and found ron johnson was two points behind. in the mid-40's for both. we commissioned an ad and put it up and just this morning, we got some pulling back that we will be releasing to the public and shows feingold is in the lead but only by three points. clinton has opened up a much larger lead in the state, so johnson is holding on. the undecided vote is really undecided. i think that helps johnson in the end because they knew feingold better since he had been in the senate for 18 years and they are more likely to go for johnson as they get to the polls and decide what to do.

it is a very competitive race and the pulling we are going to release this afternoon will show that. susan: we have about six minutes left. reporter: what is your take on the tightening we see in the florida senate race between marco rubio and patrick murphy. rubio ran for president and has 100% name id in the state of florida, which is not something to dismiss. a pretty unknown congressman on the democratic side. what do you attribute that tightening in the polls to? david: i think it's due to the widening in the presidential between trump and clinton. although murphy had a good performance and i was impressed.

i think marco won because he's a great speaker. murphy did ok, but that being said, marco has a loyal constituency in florida and they were not ready to nominate him for the presidency but they like him as their senator. he warned us about that when he got back in. reporter: that is one of the things that's interesting about club for growth, if you look at earmarks, that was murphy's biggest source of funding when he ran for his senate seat. how do you get your members to contribute through that platform? what kind of impact does that have on the club for growth

possibility to influence members -- the club for growth's ability to influence members and get your message out to congress? david: the way it works is we have about 100,000 members, maybe 20,000 decide to contribute and write out the check directly to the campaign. they send them to the candidate and it is a very efficient way, particularly for new people running who don't have an existing network of donors. it also sends a message to the congressman if they are elected. that club for growth is a player and they have a score card that is very public. we hope the people who get elected get into the 90 plus range and we are careful about screening which candidates we do

endorse that way and our members appreciate that because they don't have time to look up all the races around the country and we have looked at their background, research them and interviewed them to make sure they are true progrowth leaders. it's a great service to the members and has a great impact to the campaign. when we come in with an independent expenditure, we pay much higher rates for television ads. the money they give directly to the campaign is like gold to them. because of the laws favoring the candidates, they get to buy at the cheapest rate and it goes a lot farther. i think the candidates appreciate that and they get to control it. they decide what they put up there. they can't tell me what i hope to do and it's a very important

part of what we do. it tends to play second fiddle to the super pac entry. but it is the bread-and-butter of what the crumb for growth is -- the club for growth is all about. reporter: there was a bloomberg poll that came out this week that talks about what happens if donald trump loses the presidential election. who would be seen as the leader of the republican party? your good friend, mike pence, governor of indiana, was number one on that list ahead of donald trump, marco rubio, ted cruz, and even paul ryan. what happens with mike pence in 2020 if donald trump loses? is he well-positioned for a 2020 presidential run himself? david: i don't want to speculate on 2020, but i'm going to duck your question. but i want to say what i think

mike will do -- if he wins -- will be a great vice president and a pivotal role for president trump because he knows how to get the legislative agenda. if they lose, mike is in a position to be leader in the sense of a spokesman for the party. what he has done is focus on the issues, with the party should stand for and acquitted himself very well. typically, you don't see a vice presidential candidate get that many kudos. sometimes they are an afterthought and sometimes they are controversial. mike has risen in stature because he performed well and demonstrated his leadership skills. the key for him in what is challenging times for the party is to be the guidepost for what do we stand for as republicans because of a raucous campaign

and lots of different issues. i think mike can articulate that very well. susan: that is it for our time. all of us have busy weeks ahead of us as we get to election day. thank you very much. david: always good to be here with you. susan: "newsmakers" is back after our conversation with david mcintosh, head of the club for growth. what kind of influence does the club for growth have in the house and senate races? reporter: i think it has more influence in the house. if you drop $400,000 in a primary, that's an awful lot of money. you don't see that kind of influence in a house race. that's when they have been able to have a lot of leverage and influence and impact races a lot more.

when you talk about the senate campaigns and spending a million dollars in pennsylvania, as of yesterday, there's about $75 million spent on the pennsylvania senate race. in those house races that don't get as much attention and don't get as much money coming from the outside, they have a real ability to influence the outcome of the race. susan: you asked david mcintosh questions around free trade, noting this year it has not been a really popular position with many people who supported bernie sanders and donald trump. there was a headline that asked and the club for growth survive donald trump? what do you think about the voter's attitudes, especially the republican primaries and what it means for an organization like the club for growth? reporter: that's the big question about what happens to the club for growth for the

future. some of my questioning today -- i think there is a big question about what happens to all of trump's followers? there are tens of millions of donald trump followers who have stuck with him through thick and then. what happens to them? do they go to a different candidate? those are all things that i think will be sorted out after november 8, after the election. what happens to all of trump's followers? we will really see a civil war continue well after the election between the establishment wing and this new trump wing. i think that club for growth right now is try to figure out where it fits in in that national landscape. susan: that battle in the republican party also plays out

in the house with the caucus that you asked about and the more it establishment republicans. trump forces are another group outside of it here you let me ask, do we know how all of these forces at play will materialize? must we go through november 8 to find out? bill: i do think we need to. if the gop loses the house, the senate, the presidential election, there is going to be a much different thing than it would be if they were successful in holding the caucus. there are all of these scenarios. it all depends on what happens november 8. that being said, there is a lot of concern in the republican party over -- who are there voters? who are these people supporting trump? if you look at a race like pat toomey in pennsylvania, the candidate in the senate race much closer to donald trump on a

lot of issues, particularly trade, is karen mcginty, not pat toomey. pat toomey is almost closer to hillary clinton, who is much more open to free trade agreement. i think there is this question of republicans have, how do you -- obviously, trump brought more people out to the republican primary process, but how do you appeal to those voters without backing off the issues that define your party? optimisticintosh was about retaining control of the senate by the gop, by a slim majority. are your numbers saying the same thing? >> if you like at the overall numbers trending toward the democrats, but he did bring up an interesting point about the wisconsin race. he said internal polling shows that much closer than some of the more public polling has shown. that was a little bit

surprising. but i think generally you are seeing the trends move toward the democrats. you are seeing a tightening of races like the one in florida with marco rubio, other democrats pulling away in new hampshire. i think most betting people right now would say democrats have a better than even shot at taking the senate. >> last question is for you. will we look at the cycle overall as a great new reference in spending? >> it actually might not. one of the reasons is that donald trump really hasn't raised as much money as mitt romney did. barack obama had the best fundraiser of all time in presidential politics, and snatched him. hillary clinton doesn't have the same pressure. the numbers are a little bit lower than obama's were, and that is because trump has not

been able to bring in establishment owners. he hasn't got a super pac. there are all kinds of different things. if jeb bush was running, or marco rubio, yes, we would be shattering every single record, but because of trump's very different campaign,. we haven't seen this much money what we have seen is that congressional races will be setting records. >> and digital ads cost less. >> yes, we are seeing more digital ad buys. trump spend more on digital. the clinton campaign, priorities usa, is spending digital. and if you look at growth expenditures, it is going more and more in a digital direction. that may be the way of the future, that you can tailor in an ad who you know from

research that this is a message that will hit. >> continues to be an interesting year. thanks for being our guests. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2016] c-span, where history unfolds daily. c-span was created as a public service by america's cable services, and has brought to you today by your cable or satellite provider. >> when you grow up an environment like i did, you need a lot of people to play aerobic role in your life for you to have a chance, and luckily i had that. theyis the story of how impacted my life and a lot of positive ways. >> tonight on "q&a," j.d. vance talks about growing up in a poor