southwestern pennsylvania, the area i just mentioned. he does very well in the northeastern part of our state once anthracite coal dominated the economy. a fairly large proportion of the pennsylvania electorate, about 40% of the electorate overall in our country. , in six of the key southwestern counties, each one of them has a democratic but a registration -- but a registration -- voter registration. these are the so-called reagan democrats. we still use that terminology. solid group of's supporters. the rust belt, pennsylvania, ohio, michigan and wisconsin.

-- there are not as many of them in pennsylvania as there are in the southeastern part of our state where hillary clinton is doing better. host: the phone lines in this segment, we want pennsylvania residents to call in. 202-748-8000 is that number. all others, 202-748-8001. if you want to talk to terry madonna. you mentioned the voter registration numbers. the deadline has now passed in pennsylvania. what do we know about those shifting numbers and where they ended up? guest: there is not any doubt that the republicans benefited in the voter registration increases. they got more registration transfers from one party to another than the democrats did. the problem is when you not all of that out, the democrats still

active voter00 registration lead. it's up to one million votes if you include all of them. the roles still contain people who don't vote at all or vote less frequently. that 800,000 voter registration ads have given the democrats and advantage in presidential elections because key components of their electorate tend to vote more often in presidential elections than they do in nonpresidential elections. in pennsylvania, talking about two key groups. african-american voters and millennials. of which vote democratic in presidential elections and are going to vote this year for secretary clinton. arebig question is, what the percentages that she gets and what is the turnout?

that's the big question for her as we move toward november 8. host: for barack obama won the state in 2012. we are talking about the 12.8 million people who live in pennsylvania commend the median age in the state is 40.7 years old. the current number of residents born in pennsylvania, 73.4% high percentage there compared to other states. first in maryland. close to the pennsylvania border. good morning. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. observation.ake an the memory in my do not sell the skin of

the walls before you kill the wolves. many from supporters cannot publicly support him. cannot say publicly a support donald trump, but i will vote for him. i'm not saying the race is over. host: you do a lot of pulling in pennsylvania. what did they tell you about donald trump support? guest: that is a great question and i get it all the time. there are ways that pollsters can look at that and examine it. one way is to look at when we call individuals, will they respond to us? will they agree to be interviewed? right now, we have not seen a

disproportionate numbers of -- trump will get some democrats in the southwestern and northeastern parts of my state. do i want to say that that can't happen? no, i would not say that. there's no evidence we are seeing that in large numbers. i would not rule it out for a percentage point or two. the difficulty is that i'm not saying the race will end up with a six-point clinton victory in my state. let's say it does. that is an awful lot of people who will not agree to sit through an interview for whom we have difficulty reaching. do i think a percentage point or two? would i rule that out? absolutely not. , i've last week or so

seen much more interest and enthusiasm in voting among trump supporters. given theaned a bit difficulty has had over the past few weeks. in the active work the clinton people are doing, particularly with african americans and millennials. this election has been called weird, strange, crazy, unpredictable and unbelievable. and all of us who do this for a living say this is uncharted territory. anything that could change the outcome of the election, probably not. of the for the rest morning, 202-748-8000 is the number dedicated to pennsylvania. virginia is in old forge pennsylvania.

caller: thank you for taking my call. i love reading your articles in the paper. guest: thank you. host: what is your question? caller: what i wanted to say was, trump has a lot of supporters appear, unbelievably so. friends thatatic actually switched to republican was up for him and cnn here yesterday, and on the street trying to get in there. all they saw were trump signs. a summer one next to home and they started asking people, they said trump is really big up there. took all 67 counties here , in the primary, and we have

never been called. my friends and family and we have never been called. i think he is going to do good. guest: lackawanna county is a democratic county, largely near scranton. it is the largest city in that county. it goes democratic elections. by the way, hillary clinton's father and grandfather were born there. hillary clinton's father played football for penn state and lake when ola, -- on winola, it was transferred by hillary clinton to her two brothers. so when she goes there she talks a lot about her scranton roots and her father and so does joe biden, who was born there in didn't leave until he was 10

when he moved down to wilmington where his that got into the car business. that is a big deal in pennsylvania, when candidates come back to talk about their home roots and talk about growing up in this town or that town and lackawanna county will be a tough road -- i wouldn't rule out that donald trump could carry the county. link lizard county is likely to go republican before lackawanna does and that is another county, that county gave donald trump the highest percentage of all 67 counties in the commonwealth. again, that is white blue-collar workers, the old coal industry. these are the people who are angry. this is the populist wing of the

voters that have rallied behind donald trump, angry at the republicans, angry at the democrats. trump, the emmys establishment -- anti-establishment candidate comes along. host: is lackawanna one place we should look for to get a sense of early, where this election is going? guest: if donald trump were to win that that will be a good sign. zzern county would be as good as any. the way i do this is that the southeastern part, i don't want to get into this in detail, but barack obama only 113 -- only 13 suburban counties where one out of every five votes was cast four years ago.

if you throw philadelphia in, by 580 8000 votes, we have five counties, one third of the vote, if we include allegheny county. vote cast in six pennsylvania counties out of 67. when you build up a million plus each, you can see the difficulty in making that up in many of the rural counties. three counties west of the susquehanna river. host: hillary clinton obviously needs to run up the score in these counties so how much does she need to run it up i to to balance -- up by out the rest of the state? guest: good question. the reason she has the lead is

that she is winning the suburban 25%.ies, in some polls she is also winning female voters that -- they live all over the state but there are more in the southeastern part of the state and she is winning by double digits. she is winning college-educated voters, the largest proportion of them living in southeastern pennsylvania. when republicans win pennsylvania they do very well in philadelphia suburbs. they don't lose the city of philadelphia by the same margin that they do when the democrats are winning the state and they obviously do better in other parts of the state but there are fewer voters. so it is a math game. will undoubtedly win more counties than hillary is, -- ande question

he will get a higher turnout then mitt romney did in the blue-collar areas and he will take a higher percentage of that vote -- the real question is, what happens to the minority vote? but will shewin it win it by the 92-94% that obama did four years ago? how about the millennial vote? the 62-60 4%it by that barack obama did four years ago? it is like a chessboard. every piece is important. some pieces are more important than others. until about 8:30, let's stay in pennsylvania. while lead is calling in. good morning. caller: how are you doing? host: great. caller: i like how you break everything down.

but you break everything down without breaking it down. the southwestern part of the state and the northeastern part and then the southeastern part, it is all about race. if you call them reagan democrats, which is crazy because reagan decimated the unions and things of that nature but you see people still voting him. it is all based on race. so when you talk about these regions, let's just break down what it is. in rural cities they don't like people of color and so they don't vote republican because those folks pander to people of color. it is all about race. fairly inma won pittsburgh. there s a major area.

i don't know what hillary clinton is going to do but i know where i live. waleed.t your point, ,he electorate is 81% white compared to 66.3% for the rest of the united states. the black population in pennsylvania, about 10.6% compared to 12.5% in the rest of the country. guest: and our hispanic population is not as large among the electorate. it is foreign half percent, not as large as what we have seen nationally. we certainly had an uptick of hispanic immigrants in the last year or so, according to the census, but we are still well below many other states.

look. take the african-american vote, tenant -- 10 or 11%. in the hispanic vote we are up to 13%. now let's move beyond ethnic groups and talk about the millennials who vote democratic. they are about 18 or 19%. 30% of theabove pennsylvania electorate with to voteoups that tend democratic and for the democrats to win it is essential that the that they high and get up a significant percentage of that vote. 2014, the republicans swept pennsylvania in midterm elections as they did nationally. they were able to do that because they do better in philadelphia suburbs and the turnout in the minory and

millennials is lower than it is in presidential elections. and the white turnout tends to be higher, proportionately. so the republicans swept the state in 2010-2014. both houses of the pennsylvania legislature. untilave the governorship 2014 when an unpopular republican governor allowed a democratic governor, tom wolfe, to get elected. but the republicans still control the state legislature because of gerrymandering. they control 13 of the 18 congressional districts despite one big fact. there are almost a million who are registered -- a million more registered democrats than republicans.

host: in old ford, pennsylvania, robin is waiting. caller: good morning. i am calling just to show that in old ford -- old forge, i am shocked. i go and everybody has got their trump signs out. i see no hillary signs at all. all trump signs. i really think it is going to be a surprise election. people that are voting for hillary, i am very upset about, ad all they say is she is woman. they need a woman president. it is disheartening. i just want to let you know that trump is going to be doing good in pennsylvania. northeast pennsylvania is for trump. guest: i agree.

one of hishow that strongest regions, he did very well in the primary. we are talking about this demographic that emphasizes the voters that support trump. iam the first one to admit, will even anecdotally be out and about and people will tell me and some of trump them, i know, and i am surprised by that. some of the reasons have to do with the angst and the anger at the current direction. remember, we have two thirds of the voters who say the country is moving in the wrong direction despite the fact that the president of the united states -- his job performance is 53% positive. normally, this would be and it still might be a change election. secretary clinton has tried to

be the change candidate but, in all honesty, she is running for a third obama term even though she adopted much of the bernie sanders agenda to get the democratic nomination because her party has shifted further to the left in recent decades and the republican party has shifted further to the right. we have this populist element abouts railing not just government and its failures but also against the party, against the republican party and that, we hear a lot in the tesmony of the polls that i do and other pollsters do anecdotally all over the place. here host: are some of the front pages of the newspapers. the philadelphia inquirer, their major gopp halts fundraiser, it is a story from the washington post that is leading the washington post as well.

morninging call this focusing on the affordable care -- surges. services from the york dispatch, the story there of michelle obama talking about sample ballots online. item, infrom the daily the bottom right corner of that front page, immigration as an issue in the 10th congressional district. that is from the front pages. let's go to jean in hatfield, pennsylvania. caller: good morning. you're guest has touched on demographics. as a registered independent, pennsylvania is noted to be an aging population. if he could just explain a little bit more about my age group and our impact on the election. being aquestion is registered independent, what is your guests opinion of me voting

for a third-party candidate, the other parties that would affect the most. guest: let's take the last question first. ago, and even longer, hillary clinton was more adversely affected i the .efections from the two-party so when we put two candidates in, trump and clinton and then put former, with the nominees of the major parties, and then gary johnson and jill stein, libertarian in green party nominees respectively, we found that clinton was adversely affected by a point or two. over the last couple of weeks, the surgeon support for the third-party candidates has dropped. that has benefited hillary clinton a little bit more,

particularly among the millennials who defected to her -- from her from the democratic party after their candidate, bernie sanders, did not win the nomination. the clinton campaign has been obsessed with two areas of, not just in my state but in other states, the millennials and the african-americans. president obama was in our state in west philadelphia, literally, talking to the african-american community, saying he would take it personal if they didn't vote for him. and there were people organizing in the african-american community. the same with the millennials. there is almost never a week where clinton, tim kaine, or their surrogates are not on a college campus. i have never seen anything quite like it.

we are talking about 18-19% of the vote. at the moment, i don't think they will have a big effect on the outcome with a third-party candidates. the election would have to get very close for that to happen. for the moment, it doesn't look like that. pennsylvania has the fifth oldest population in the country. that it is any doubt disproportionate that nationwide voters will be older and whiter. typically, that would benefit the republicans and trump is doing fairly well among white elderly males in particular. whether it remains that way in the next two weeks, i think it probably will, that is one of the groups. any weakening would hurt that coalition. he needs to expand his

coalition, winning more women and doing better with independent voters. in some polls he was winning independent voters. but the problem is there are not enough of them. our state has fewer than many of the other states who still have high levels of partisanship. we also have closed primaries and that leads to people registering in one party as opposed to becoming an independent. we are in many parts of the state, that is where elections are decided. host: we should focus on that high-profile senate race as well . by some accounts the most expensive in the country featuring republican senator pat toomey, republican challenger katie mcginty. here is a headline relating the presidential race to the senate race, gop incumbent walks line

in pennsylvania on supporting trump. take us through where senator pat toomey is on donald trump. guest: that is a great question and it is probably the single most important element in the campaign. is heoomey:'s position has not supported donald trump. he hasn't said he won't vote for him, however. said hehree, he has will not support hillary clinton. and he has been pushed. by a have been two debates television station at either end of the state, he has been pushed by moderators, criticized in commercials. one calls him, a way to put it me.'idy to

he wants the white working-class voters but he also wants the college education -- educated voters in the suburbs. for viewers over the world, that would be, think allentown and bethlehem. swing counties along with six counties. a high proportion of college-educated voters, women. he is walking that proverbial tightrope and it opened in avenue for katie mcginty. as we speak, that raises very close. toomey has a three point lead. the biggest problem in this state and we can see in other states is the down ballot effect should hillary clinton win this

state and other states by 8, 9, 10. see a would, we would decline in ticket splitting over the last 20 years. fewer people split tickets because of the intense ideological differences and partisanship. that means the coattail effect could hurt senators like to omey. publicans are working on down particularly on those areas of the state and in the states where they are not supporting the republican establishment not supporting donald trump. host: as you said in the last segment, a combined $28.6 million spent by senate , putting that senate race at over $118 million with still two weeks to go.

stephen is in new york. you're on with terry madonna. caller: i appreciate your most recent comment and i think pat toomey has done a successful job negatives arumps little separate and not losing trump supporters. but a less clear battle is how issues are affecting this. trump and toomey seem to be on opposite sides on trade and banking and finance and regulations. and that's, i don't understand how that difference, that opposition, is playing out in the race. guest: that is a great question. , there is some emphasis on the issues. in a presidential campaign, this

is far more about the past for these candidates and their personalities as it has been on the issues. we know what issues the voters care about. the economy, jobs, the world affairs. they tend to dominate. as john pointed out with changes going on at increase premiums for people by their insurance individually, the increase in premiums could raise health care to a more important stature in the campaign. what has really surprised me is the lack -- and there are big differences between katie mcginty, your traditional and pat toomey, who is your conservative. about thingsh more in their lives and things that they did that are more relevant

this almostin $100,000 in outside spending. and that is what the commercials are emphasizing. characters of the candidates as opposed to the issues. if they get elected, you are going to see two very different patterns of votes in the united states senate. two candidates couldn't be more different. toomey's stance on guns is in the middle along with senator manchin from west virginia. he supported universal background checks. wafflinginty has been on sanctuary cities and what to do with guantanamo bay prisoners. but we know what their votes are going to be in the senate so that choice is clear, as i think the caller accurately pointed out. the big difference is not just between trump and toomey, and

there are big differences because is trump really a conservative? that has been the issue all along. in the address he gave on the first hundred days, he got more than he did in the last entire campaign. atis clear to the electorate an event covered by the media, but what does he really mean and what would you likely do? there are differences between -- who is a staunch conservative. host: let's go to louisiana. terry is waiting. caller: mr. madonna, i just want to say something. this constant questioning about why voters are more focused on character and their past more so than the issues is because the issues, in some ways, seem to be and i think it goes back

to the old saying from the 70's thanactions speak louder words. in a person's actions are not up virtually, you don't see -- you don't seem to trust that kind of person in office to lead our country. i am a registered republican and have never been a registered democrat. i graduated high school and we registered in high school and my group of girls, all-girls in a public high school, predominantly, most of us registered republican at that time because we were tired of the crooked stuff that goes on in just our state amongst the democrats. at that time. i have always leaned towards trying to support my party. there have been a few times when i have voted democrat but let me tell you something.

i have supported donald trump from the very beginning. with him twobook years before he announced his presidency but the very day that i saw him imitate a disabled person in public -- and i was an and workedr 15 years with down syndrome, worked with autistic children -- and when he made fun of disabled children or disabled people, that was what set it off for me. that is where i drew the line. greatthe caller makes a point. look. this campaign, at the presidential level and to some extent in our state senate races has been much about the past. the candidates past, what did they do, what did they say? it has also been about the personalities.

got into this point about credibility, look at hillary clinton's scores on honesty and trustworthiness. look at clinton's standing in the polls -- i'm sorry -- trumps standing on temperament and judgment. seeing percentages we haven't seen before which pushes this race into a new territory. elections throughout american history have always been about character. they have always been about the past record and the personalities of the candidate. we have more of it, with greater intensity. look at what we just heard in that caller. this caller is on either side, supporting from for supporting clinton. come back to this a lot more than they do about the salient issues that are going to come up

in the next four years during a presidential term. i am only mentioning that because we are picking it up in the comments that we get from individuals that we call and you calls youg it in the get all the time, probably more than you have in the past. host: we have time for one more call in the segment. for our viewers, stay on the line and we will get you into the next segment focusing on pennsylvania for the rest of our program. bob is in bethlehem, pennsylvania. caller: have you ever been to bethlehem? .uest: sure to the renovated hotel right downtown? caller: ok. so you saw how curated bethlehem has become when steel went out of business. think, whereyou

does trump get most of his money? it is wall street. but you look at wall street, when you go out the front door you have the hudson river. you go out the back door and you have the cemetery. heck of a place where you think that is where you are going to get your money from? guest: actually, one of the problems trump has is that he hasn't raised that much money or put an organization together and he trails hillary clinton substantially. he says he has raised a lot from small donors, but i couldn't tell you what they are. that was one criticism. , throughout this campaign, he had the enthusiasm of a hard-core group of supporters that led him to the nomination, not spending anywhere near the amount of

money other candidates did and the same is true for his presidential election although recently they have worked at raising money online and donald little better. -- done a little better. these outside super pac's and dark money in the race. both candidates have been accused of taking money from special interests. he is the director of the politics and public affairs center there. anotherou go, is there pennsylvania poll coming out from your group before we get to election day? guest: next week, tuesday or wednesday, we will take a look at the very competitive u.s. senate race. >> washington journal continues. host: we continue our focus on the battleground state of pennsylvania. christopher nicholas joins us now.

he is a republican consultant who manages statewide races in pennsylvania. the currentugh what polling numbers show and where hillary clinton stands ahead of donald trump in the keystone state. if there is a path for victory for donald trump, what do you think it would be? guest: i don't think there is a path to victory for donald trump in the keystone state. it is just, at the end of the day, you have to respect the math. i didn the spring i said not think there were enough angry right people -- angry white people for trump to win. for republicans running statewide in pennsylvania is how badly they will lose in philadelphia. donald trump has become the democrats best weapon in their struggle to get out to vote among their cohorts in philly. donald trump is doing their job for them, having become so toxic

, especially with key components being democrat base african-americans, young people and hispanics. if you come out losing by 500 or 550,000 votes, there is not enough pennsylvania left to make that up. talking to terry, it was interesting to note that there were so may people out there, they're part of the world is either one way or another on presidential race so if you are in northeast pennsylvania, there is a lot of people up there that probably don't know anyone voting for hillary clinton but likewise, go to the suburbs and people there don't know anyone vong for donald trump. i could see why people in various pockets of the state think it is going to go one way or another because the vote is so -- it is going to be so bifurcated in the various segments of the state.

you could see donald trump do abnormally well in northeast pennsylvania or southeast pennsylvania and get the normal vote in central pennsylvania and then just get whitewashed in philadelphia and the suburbs. because 40% of the people in the philadelphia suburbs and the -- they're way just predominates. host: are you personally for donald trump? guest: personally, no. i did not vote for him in the primary and i can't vote for him at the general and vote for hillary went and so i am still trying to figure out what to do myself. host: why can't you vote for him in the general? fitt: i don't think he is to be leader of our party, leader of the country, and leader of the free world which is what the u.s. president is and does on a day-to-day basis. i don't think he wants to be prepared. he has not run a campaign for me that ever looked like it was

focused on winning people who have pointed out have been very accurate. billionaire,ing a sure seems to have a lot of grievances in his lot. after eight divisive views of barack obama, i think that is the last thing we need. i was at a diner recently and somebody peek into my conversation and said, how did we get to this place where we have two such hard to support nominees? my friend said it was a tough choice between corrupt and crazy. that is where we find ourselves. whoever is elected president in 13 days is going to have an unfavorable rating above 50%. as mitt romney's former tv guide is fond of saying, on election

day 2012 after being pummeled by barack obama for almost a year, mitt romney's favorable rating was 50 and his unfavorable was 47. so in the business we say his favorable rating was free -- was three. their unfavorables are in the mid-50's. that is just new ground in america. usually we like one. host: when you talk about respecting the math in pennsylvania, here is a few numbers. week's democratic groups are spending $4.1 million in the state for hillary to. republican groups are spending $1.8 million. 508 paid staffers for democrats, republicans have 52. what are the numbers in your mind that matter here as we go through?

guest: before i get into the numbers let me say there is a lot of drying from the media about how many field staffers are in the state for one side of the other. it needs to be pointed out the democrats need more field staff in general. there are more elected officials at the local and state levels than republicans so they need more care and feeding. it is not a situation where the democrats have more, it is just how it normally is. this division, though, is abnormally large. when i look at the math it is how to register voters, become likely voters, become actual voters, and how will they react? pennsylvania hasn't looked at the most recently updated numbers at about 640,000 more active democrats and republicans. so when you take out the fact that some of those democrats are still voting mostly republican, 450,000 bump for

the democrats. when you start with that math it is just more downhill sledding for the demo rats. pennsylvania, we have six statewide officials and five of them are democrats and the only republican is our u.s. senator, pat toomey. but look at the red -- the legislature. republicans hold majorities in the statehouse so republicans can do better in district races. democrats do better in a statewide race. host: we are talking about all these races on election day. if you are a pennsylvania 202-74 8-8000 and all (202) 748-8001. caller: i can't see how anybody

can vote for a man who won't turn his taxes in. and pat toomey, he is special interest. mcginty is perfect. it is a hard election but it is a very important one and now, i have to say this. with hillary. i wanted bernie sanders but it is what it is. i don't trust anybody like donald trump. the first thing he said when he started debating only done the line, i don't want somebody in there like that. that is all i've got to say. host: he started touching on the senate race. do you want to focus on the senate race? host: katie mcginty is someone

who was an environmental staffer for a while in washington and ran the department of environmental protection here in the state when ed randel was governor. guest: she later went to work on some corporate board in the ran forental industry, governor in 2014, finished in last place, became friends with tom wolfe, and he appointed her as chief of staff and she served in that capacity for the bulk of 2015 and went on to this race here. pat toomey is a conservative republican from the lehigh valley who is most focused on fiscal issues. i think he has grown as a u.s. vis a vis his time in the u.s. house. he is now one of two. when you look back at this

campaign, the reason i think toomey has a chance to squeak out a victory is he hasn't made any unforced errors. one of the reasons they say, who are you going to vote for "it because of your answer it is because they want to pounce on that "unforced error." toomey is a very disciplined fellow and i think, by aggressively keeping donald trump at arms length, denouncing the statements that trump has made in real time, not a week later, has served him well. voters have processed that mcginty is going to be supportive of the democratic nominee and to me with the republican nominee. people kind of get that joke. mcginty, she at has made a couple of on forced

errors and said that she was the first member of her extended family -- she has nine siblings -- she was the first to go to college and that was found out to be untrue. she used a derogatory curse word to describe him in a semi public setting. last week, she said that they had endorsements from law enforcement groups that couldn't say who they were and ended up not saying who they were during the debate. i think that gives to me the edge. if you are pat toomey, you want to get most of the trump vote outside the philadelphia area and you want to do better than trump. i did a survey in a legislative district in pennsylvania recently and in the main township, which is about 15% of the district, it used to be republican and now it is reliably democrat. in that township, from was losing 66-16. but to me and mcginty were tied.

so when people talk about, will there be people splitting their tickets, they already are. we are going to see a lot more split ticket voting at the presidential level and the senate level. host: you mentioned how pat toomey is walking the line on donald trump. here is how he answered a question from pbs news hour over the weekend about whether he is supporting donald trump. >> i think pennsylvania voters are totally achievable of distinguishing between the presidential race. host: you are talking with christopher nicholas, republican strategist. in pennsylvania, dan is in young worth. caller: thank you. you run a great program and i watch it on a regular basis and listening to all of us, americans out there,

certainly, i am very pleased to see that some of the people call in and make their commentary. my comments and questions would be, number one, we are all americans. if thetainly, politicians were following up and doing their jobs, we would make sure that our people today, the young ones who are going to make a difference tomorrow, would learn about history. historians,read our the people that were the framers of the constitution, the ,eclaration, the bill of rights and understanding the agendas when people speak to us. we've got two candidates. there he different. certainly, people think different things for different reasons but the point is, usually, your past will predicate what you do in the future.

we have had eight years of mr. running for the presidency. if you look at history that is trump. is now for donald for that case, we are talking a man who has done success. and despite the locker room language which i am sure men and women use on a regular taste -- doesn't make it right -- the point is where are we going to be in the future? who is going to be on the supreme court? i ask the millennials and the latino,black, white, this is what our future is going to be and that is going to be who they put on the supreme court, how are schools are going to think. young, talk to the

elderly, read the history books, take a moment. we've got the media today. , becauseighty issues you don't have to like the people you work with, but the point is donald trump has demonstrated that he will get the people to do the job. he is a good negotiator. and today, historys different. we need somebody to get out there to make america great again. host: christopher nicholas, your thoughts on that pitch? guest: i think that gentleman perfectly encapsulated the change argument as it relates to donald trump. we are in a change election. one of the best truisms in america is that people like change. it's how we are wired. after eight years of one-party

it is logical to think, let's try something different. and when you look at voters who say it is time for a change, even they are among that subset. hillary clinton, in recent polls is tied or leading among those voters. i think trump has fumbled the change argument because he has disqualified himself in the eyes of too many voters. in a crowded republican primary where trump was one of 17 candidates, the politics of division worked. because you were looking for your 30-35%. 100% name idn with and the only republican candidate who had that. the next has to be about addition and not division. in most cases across the country, there are more d's than

r's. from has never had to do that and it shows. given all of hillary clinton's flaws, which are most recent caller detailed well, people are we will have to put up with clinton." this a republican, i think cake is baked for election 2016. we know who the presidential race is going to and now we have to think about 17 and 18. when hillary clinton arrived in husbande and her created the groundswell that republicans picked up. so when she gets to the white house i think she is going to overreach again because that is how she is wired. are looking to be

potentially good use for republicans at the state and national level. host: let's head to new enterprise, pennsylvania. diane is waiting. caller: good morning. my observation in battleground state pennsylvania is that you have an epic battle between the takers and the makers. i like donald trump because i see him as a warrior on behalf of the makers. the takers have loaded up the wagon and it is getting too heavy for the makers to carry. so as far as i am concerned, though donald trump. as a woman i am more than willing to forget the locker room banter in exchange for this substantive issue. i will listen on the tv. i think that would make a great tbf or donald trump. get yourself to new

enterprise and put that woman found the camera, she made a very good speech for trump, better than i think trump has done himself. the: i wonder how you think surge in premiums for the affordable care act that were announced by the federal government this week, how do you think that could play in the last two weeks of the election? guest: one of the things that aca ispened with the that a lot of people lost their insurance but more people got insurance. ultimately, there are more heal insurance consumers because more people have health insurance. but when you enter the marketplace, you realize sometimes how difficult health insurance can be to maneuver through and how to price increases are going up. i don't think anyone out there is going to get the 22% or 25% pay raise next year but if you are on some obamacare plan that

is the increase you are going to see in your premiums. somenk it will impact people but again, no matter how many people are using obamacare, there are more people in pennsylvania who don't use that have private insurance so i think it is better to focus on the increases their because more people are dealing with that than are dealing with obamacare. host: next, timothy is on the line. good morning. caller: thank you for taking my call. i hope i get enough time to talk. thank you very much. the supreme court is one of the most important issues for me. what it wask at five/four republican justices with justice scalia, who voted for citizens united, most of the

people, at least 80%, disagree with citizens united. giving corporations the same rights as people. it gave them the right to put all that money into politics. rig ofe up the system -- the system. overturned, that they need to get a judge appointed by hillary. more than that, i want to say says theld trump system is rigged. he is not blaming the right people. it is the republicans that are not behind him. this is the first time i have , and he would have a good chance to win. the last and least, the

, when obamaarty came in, the most powerful republicans said that his main job was to make obama a one term president. so they wanted to run against him from the beginning. people behindn him were working to make obama a one term president. they did a good job of criticizing obama. outwhen donald trump came about his birth certificate, they laughed at it and they blew it over and they let this guide to all this stuff because it was hurting obama and now it just came back to haunt them. host: christopher nicholas? guest: i think it is a little

frustrating when i hear people get excited about the fact that the republican senate leader said he wanted to make the democratic president a one term president. if we go back to when george w. bush was president, obviously every democrat wanted to make him a one term president. that is how the business goes. i would note for the record that the citizens united ruling which allowed for money in politics in certain areas, some of the most recent stories have said the demo that's are now raising more of that money and using more of it than republicans. every election is different. in general, mrs. clinton has done a lot better fundraising than mr. trump has and that is folks inoo many of the the contributor class of the gop have been and remain uneasy with trump and the democrats see clinton is a way to, frankly, stay in power because they have

been in power for eight years. the other thing about folks upset about citizens united, i would say point to an election where you think that made a difference because now both parties do it fairly equally. reported init is some way shape or form. i would disagree in saying that it has been a determinative one way or the other. host: south of york, is shrews very, pennsylvania. geraldine is waiting there. guest: for me, the issues come down to the ideology. vote for awe want to straight line socialist, you will go for hillary. -- andwant a capitalist i am facing my vote on socialism or capitalism, what system do you want?

do you want to return to jobs and workers? the gentleman says he can't vote for trump but if you are basing it strictly on ideology of socialism versus capitalism, who would you choose? host: mr. nicholas? guest: that is a good way to put it when president obama came into office. he said he wanted to make america more like europe and i think he has exceeded -- succeeded on some level, especially in the first term when he had control of the house and the senate. things he some of the did, obamacare and a few other the pendulum swung back and theblicans took control of senate. america may not think about this consciously but subconsciously, they like divided government. they like the checks and balances.

you are going to see more republicans message on the fact that they will be a good check on hillary clinton because so many people now assume that hillary can is going to win more states than trump. host: back to northeast pennsylvania, small town of effort. mike is waiting. good morning. caller: hello. is about gerrymandering in pennsylvania. earlier mentioned that in races here in democrats tendhe statewide e in

elections, yet, the republicans end to dominate in the elections where the state it is districts and pparent that it is a result of gerrymandering on behalf of the republicans. the ve in the congress of united states from pennsylvania, e have 13 republicans and five democrats. well, in the last election, i'm democrats that the garnered more votes for congress overall than the republicans did. also, would like to comment on senatorial race between tumey, and ms. mcginty. made of h has been senator tumey, and his co-sponsorship of the background hecks bill with the senator mansion from west virginia and

estimation of that is that get passed. that bill did not get passed ecause the nra and the leadership of the republican senator not back toomey. mr. toomey was allowed to go head and do that without the backing of his party, and and with he can go what they have been doing against ms. mcginty is playing a to the issue, saying ms. mcginty will take away your guns. the same time, we all know that senator toomey has the the nra, while they are pushing forward the idea he background checks. host: point, mike. christopher nicholas. answer in reverse the nra is not endorsing senator

they have election, not endorsed in the u.s. senate race. what i gentleman said about pat toomey pushing a bill, even though he knew his leadership not for it speaks to his independence on this issue and coalitions. to forge people say in general, we want more politicians working but you get situations like this, the gentleman says, well, it wasn't a true effort. i think it is. talk about gerrymandering, i to lay the republican success in the state and say it to gerrymandering, i think is quite frankly, a lazy argument. one of the reasons pennsylvania is the way it is in districts is of the democrats live clustered so close together. year, a book ery thalt has registration by state house district, senate

district, congressional district. when you look at state house districts, there are 203 of them, most districts we have in the state. them as an use example. the most democratic house in philadelphia, democrats. lan casterican is in county, 64-65%. lot of s have a districts with overwhelming majority of voters because closer together and are clustered in the cities and around the cities and the vote is spread out. a lot of democratic office abouts only have to worry primary election because general election is in name only. lot of ave, i think, a republicans who have developed better general election muscles have to win races democrats, once they win the primary in the is ng, the general election an afterthought.

host: new castle, pennsylvania carlita, good morning. caller: good morning. i would like to make an argument free college education. i think the rise of donald trump is hillary clinton's best argument for free college education. win/win it is a situation for the individual, he family and it is good for our democracy. host: all right, christopher nicholas combshgs thoughtos free education? guest: well, that is an issue that strikes home to me. the first of ns three consecutive years where college.boys are in our older son is at iup, indiana younger son d our at university of pittsbuh. college is looking more interesting to me now. bexar, california is up next, nancy, good morning. caller: hi. i heard someone mention

something about citizens united. a documentary on hbo, by pelosi, who showed in 2008, that obama was the ignited united citizens united and basically responsible for that. voting r thing about usc rigged, if you go on is site, it shows that obama -- since -- started in 2009, in 2015, the people to s given streamline and expedite the aturalization process for illegal immigrants, he spent at doing that, llion which is buying votes,

basically. also, they aren't, they don't have any of the rules that hey have to follow like other immigrants when they naturalize. hey don't have to speak english. they don't have to say the ledge of after the accident allegiance. they don't have to write a essay in english and they are not pay anything other all, like all immigrants are. host: christopher nicholas, to bring these concerns, the donald trump was in wilkesbury and says, i hear shows, we have to make sure this election is not stolen rom us or taken away from us and newt gingrich, donald trump surrogate, said to suggest that in don't have theft philadelphia is to deny reality. votesrns about making sure are counted correctly in pennsylvania? are.: i think they i think a lot of those claims

are overblown. some are legitimate. like to stress to folks, when guto vote on election day, person, take a moment to thank the nice people behind the table running the local ns in your precinct. my mom was one of those nice wasle back in the '70s, who in buck county, a minority the ctor, we were in minority party, the republican party. these folks worked 12 or 15 hour days, get little money and they are really important cause in machinery of us having free and fair elections. voter long said that most fraud in pennsylvania is democrat on democrat violence in the it is perpetrated primaries. as i said earlier, for democrats what they so much of care about in eleblthed offices happen necessary our april or may primary. that is where you have, i think shenanigans. couple precinct

necessary philadelphia, they call them divisions, everyone precincts, obama got every single vote. if you would actually visit that philadelphia, you would realize that everyone there is probably african american or they are all democrat. i can believe that, that there were case where is there were where obama got every vote and romney didn't get any. emember, election necessary pennsylvania, at least are run by the counties. you have think if some republican-run county in the state, they're not going to fair elections. i think the folks in philadelphia try to do the same thing. many more st so people there that sometimes you hear more general election they haveries because a lot of people. fraud isn general, the more in primaries and then some shenanigans n have in absentee voting because you person.doing it in i do not think the polls a

rigged. i think inennsylvaa, like i earlier, 640,000 more registered democrats than republicans, so that makes it asier sledding for the democrats. host: just a few minutes left with christopher nicholas, a epublican consultant in pennsylvania. again, the phone number, 02-748-8000 if you are a pennsylvania resident. 202-748-8001 for all others. this don't get in segment, hang on the line, we will continue to talk about pennsylvania and the election in segment of the "washington journal," as well. nothing dra wait landonburg, pennsylvania. kendra, good morning. caller: good morning. you for taking my call. i would like to say that i can't support donald trump at all for many reasons and i'm not that crazy about clinton. but one thing i am crazy about which no one nge,

seems to care about. they're not talking about it. me, i learned in elementary school, that the earth is not renewable. we can't go back to taking coal an alarming rth at rate and continue that for the destroy cause it will our earth and it just saddens me that it is not a big deal. and also, i think the candidates talk about the protest that is going on in north dakota pipeline. i realize there are pipelines everywhere. tragedy for ust a the native american people and one that breaks my heart to think about these things. these are the major things i'll e considering when i vote and the next thing would be the that, and after education.

ho: christopher nicholas, on environmental issues in pennsylvania, getting much attention up there? guest: it is interesting on a level and state level those issues have not been at the forefront. interested inople climate change are very interested in it. the bulk of the people just are not. education, i think is more of a gets level issue, that bobbed back and forth looking at issues. i want to note, john, i put a evil nt on my website, consult dot com, folks can download that has voter for tration statistics every county in the state and results byesidential county, so if they want to play along at home on election night, the results come in, they will have the document, download what the ompare candidates did in 2012 in the happening us what is this election day.

host: i can see your thoughts on as well at eagle 63 time for one or two more calls. pennsylvania, go ahead. caller: hi, how you doing? want to let you know that i'm supporting donald trump and i'm from southeast pennsylvania, of philadelphia, and the last two commentators, the one and the on there now one prior to that, they were oth saying nobody from southeast delaware county to vote nia are going for donald trump and that's not true, because i am one of them. brother into doing it. i have five brothers and all voting for s are donald trump. one is in florida, so there is a trump vote for florida. that's all i need to say. host: christopher nicholas on family.ote and his guest: well, good for john for eing active in the political process. i can't imagine what it is like

to have that many brothers, i only have one. there will be people voting for both candidates all over the state. look in general in delaware county, delaware the y has gone democrat in last four presidential races at the county level. democrat will go again. it doesn't mean there won't be a lot of good people who vote for or one of the third-party candidates, but in general that when you the state, look at polling starts off more ilted to the democratic side and this election has become more magnified in the race.dential i think there is going to be a ot of counties this year that vote a little bit differently than they have in the past. guest, terry, you folks were talking about northeast pennsylvania and i world, hat part of the which is more traditionally democrat, especially in two are going to go more republican, i think donald

trump will do better there than average republican candidate. i quite frankly been surprised his strength in nepa, as we call it. ot surprised in other places, but in nepa, yes. ou will have situations where clinton or trump are going to be just running away with it in that county. it will be interesting to see what happens with the undercard, challenge for either u.s. senate candidate, if you re katie mcginty, she is polling below where hillary clinton is. a lot of people have written a about how can toomey overcome trump's in ormance, but i think general, if mcginty gets clinton's vote on election day, loses, i think, hillary 47-48%. will get i don't think that wins the senate race. you have both senate candidates, an issue for toomey, but

also for mcginty, having to run top of the ticket n. managed republican senator specter's re-election campaign. we figured out unfortunately president bush was going to lose pennsylvania again, probably less than he lost by in 2000, so run four, five, six seven points ahead of bush in order to win. that.e able to do so the challenge for toomey, and for mcginty, nt how do they do that, as well. have to find trump/mcginty voters and toomey to find clinton/toomey voters. host: christopher nicholas, eagle consulting group. eagle consult dot com. him on twitter at eagle hate. >> announcer: "washington

journal" continues. we round out focus on pennsylvania today with democratic strategist mark as pennsylvania communications director on two presidential campaigns, including hillary clinton's 2008 primary run, and mark nevins, do you have any official role with he hillary clinton campaign this cycle? guest: not this year. presidential elections are things, i think it takes more than four years to recover from the last one. joining us from philadelphia. in the last pridential election, president obama's in philadelphia fuelled by young voters by the african makes n population that up half of the vote there. are those two populations going numbers ut in the same for hillary clinton this cycle? guest: i think they can. i think they should. i think the campaign is going to have to work harder to get those perhaps president obama did. there was a certain appeal that he had to younger voters, in the african american community he was incredibly popular.

came out more ns easily for president obama in but i do think8, those people are accessible, for secretary te clinton and it is just a matter of the campaign taking the time, ining the effort and putting the hours to get them to turn out. host: are they doing that? guest: yes. absolutely. i think that is one of the sort advantages that the clinton campaign has in pennsylvania and probably in a are f other states, they far better organized than the trump campaign. i think they have spent more and invested more money in organizing around the state, offices in big communities, small communities, counties all over the state. they have operation and nfrastructure in place to turn out the vote on november 8. ost: an earlier guest in this focus on pennsylvania today, talked about the need not just or hillary clinton to win

philadelphia, but win philadelphia big to offset the parts of the other the state. so if we're watching on election ight, what is winning big mean in philadelphia? what is a good number for hillary clinton to end the night the philadelphia area ballots are counted? guest: i think roughly speaking 300,000 smaller than vote margin, in philadelphia not the suburbs, anything smaller than 300,000 toe margin is probably going make the campaign very nervous. i think when they start getting 50, 400, 2012, i think obama a 500,000h like maybe vote margin, maybe a little less. the population in philadelphia and surrounding areas, if the democratic candidate wins those

big enough margin, there just aren't enough votes left in the rest of the state to offset it. by contrast, if you think about he 2008 primary in pennsylvania, i worked for secretary clinton on that race, philadelphia county, but won enough vote necessary hiladelphia that she was able to offset that by winning in the suburbs and win nothing northeastern pennsylvania and western pennsylvania and she was those offset sort of giant margin that then senator obama had in philadelphia by in some other places. i think that is a difficult for mr. c equation trump this year because i think necessary n county philadelphia are kind of shut out to him. not to say there aren't voters i think he will have a hard time turning out or independent-minded voters.

host: the same math for katie mcginty, as well as she looks to toomey, orsenator pat does she, is it different in a enate race when you're looking at margin as they come in around the state? generally i think speaking for any democrat running statewide there, is strategy.ic i will over tlt simplify it. philadelphia. win the suburbans, you don't ave to blow it out, win in the suburbs, win alleghany county pittsburgh is and win in northeastern pennsylvania, scranton and wilkesbury and pennsylvania are. put together a coalition of wins in those areas, you probably enough of a margin to offset the fact you'll probably state.e rest of the harrisburg probably goes for democrats, as well, the rest of you look at a en map, you will be shocked how red it is. the population centers are

for democrats and can win statewide if they can populationl in those centers. ost: head to elivabethtown, pennsylvania. debra is the first caller. caller: good morning. love you. c-span, i what i have to say, i could never vote for clinton, never. bernie voter. and i've got to split the ticket, i've got to. going for trump. i mean, either/or. think trump can upset everything. bring change. clinton is nothing, but the same. of change.ot so i will be going trump. democrat. host: mark nevins. guest: yeah, i think debra is minority, i he don't hear a lot about democrats voting for trump. touched on is e really at the root of what

to support donald trump. it's , in a lot of cases, driven by dislike of secretary vein i think n a what they are touching on is the status quo, and powerful desire for change. think what scares a lot of people is, they don't know what bring.hange is going to there is no plan, there is no people understand or trust to replace whatever it is object to. host: york, pennsylvania is next. morning.od caller: good morning. how are you? host: doing well, julie, you are mark nevins. go ahead. aller: yes, i was talking specifically about donald trump way, but he is own strength, when he

was in pennsylvania, scranton, specific about the pennsylvania issues. in hillary spoke her "we nia, she spoke re great, america," speech, actually the same everywhere she goes. where is the republican voice? what were the specific issues that you appreciated donald trump addressing? well, for one thing, in pennsylvania, our infrastructure is awful. roads, he brought that up specifically. largely a blue collar up the steel ght having left.

he brings up specifics. each area that he goes to, goes without saying. off d trump has gotten policies, where hillary does not speak policy specifics. mark the caller joined nevins on stump speech necessary pennsylvania. guest: yeah, i have to tell you, what you hear in the conversation about the is the opposite of that. i think most people are concerned they don't hear enough specifics from donald trump and that secretary clinton has a lot of specifics. think you can find what you're looking for for either candidate looking on their website, find policy specifics from both of them. on an she touched important issue in pennsylvania and i think threw out what we is the rust valve, that

pennsylvania, ohio, that sort of across the stretches middle of the country. infrastructure drives the economy in pennsylvania. move good necessary or out of the state by the highway or on rivers, it's going to paralyze the economy. investing in infrastructure in pennsylvania and in the rest of the country, critical investment. think that is something democrats and republicans agree on. talked rk nevins, we about affordable care act premium surge that was reportod federal from the government, front page story on the allentown morning call this morning. on twitter says the obama care increases will be the last of w the democrats hoped winning the senate. mean, when it comes to the affordable care act and the 24-48 hours, last

i think i've got to use, i have a political view. the political view is that, you know, if it were anybody else the top of the ticket besides donald trump, this might significant issue, but he is personally is such a trouble on, he has breaking through on news anything other than himself. think it hamstrung the republican's ability and i mean large, sort of made it difficult for them to break through on this issue and get traction because as soon as donald trump goes out and says something else outrageous, it take this issue and it is going to push it off the front page. the substantive issue here, which is, you know, act, i don'tle care think anybody disagrees, i think thereary clinton has said are improvements that need to be made to the affordable care act.

groundbreaking legislation and some things they didn't get right, over time they found things they can improve. i think that the concerns costs are emium significant and legitimate. the e can't ignore improvements, the fact is in pennsylvania, the number of pennsylvaniaple in has gone down since passage of the affordable care act. know, we eliminated the condition, eliminated life-time cap on insurance coverage. mean, the -- can't be loss, it is net for the country, there re improvements and i think democrats, including secretary clinton acknowledged those, want ledged problems and to work to fix it and the about is when you talk repealing it, there is no -- competent presented a

or legitimate alternative. i think for the most part people going to be concerned about affordable care act because it will leave a its place.in host: albert, good morning. caller: good morning. -- voterld you explain

fraud, in pennsylvania, like states, especially the important ones for the vote, are 50,000 any of the electronic voting machines from pennsylvania?n

guest: kevin, i have to admit, i don't know who purchased or manufactured the voting machine necessary pennsylvania. there has been a lot of talk about voter fraud, the fact of he number of incidents documented voter fraud is so inimal as to be frankly irrelevant in pennsylvania and, i think a lot of of voting the rigging or legitimacy of the election is rankly harmful to the democratic process. unproductive. host: i understand it, in first vania, this is the year where there won't be specifically a paper trail at that correct? why? different counties have different style voting machines, on then't answer broadly

state. said,e state level, like i he number of investigative or documented and proven cases of voter fraud is so minimal, it no impact on the outcome of elections. ost: 20 minutes left in the program today. the line for pennsylvania residents, 202-748-8000. outside pennsylvania, 202-748-8001. all from inside pennsylvania, washington, pennsylvania, karen, good morning. caller: hello. calling because i used to be i will never vote democrat the rest of my life and make sure my children know what your party is all about. pick hillary clinton is revolting and i just want you o explain why she is so

self-enrichment. plu tonium deal, 20% of supply of uranium went to the russians. that is after she got 145 million dollar donation to her foundation and bill got his bag money, 1.1 million in russia. signed off for uranium. uranium, fishient in that is why she had to sign off on it. head had interest in that russian company. for just self-enrichment her. sorry to see karen leave the party. -- i'm not familiar with most of what karen just said,

think that if you have a oncern about relationships and connections to russia and i think that it is hard argument to make that is more likely to be tough on the russians about ring what he said vladamir putin and the fact that actuallyr campaign had did business in russia. documented trail of connections between his campaign nd russia is fairly well established. so i'm not sure i was following all of what she was saying. it is certainly a concern that the ng animosity between united states and russia and continued disruption and hacking of emails and electronic urveillance of candidates and campaigns in the united states is disturbing. on that, certainly, democrats

nd republican shoulds probably agree. host: as somebody who has been a spokesperson for hillary clinton in a previous campaign, how do you think the current campaign done when it comes to managing, not just the fallout wikileaks, but the clinton foundation and the issues the caller brings up, the pay-to-play concerns that many callers have with hillary clinton? guest: yeah, i think that the done n foundation has incredible amount of good around the country. lot of the a criticism is either poorly unsubstantiated. the clinton foundation raises to do good ends it n aids awareness, you know, creating infrastructure and water supplys and impoverished third-world countries. it has well documented record of doing that.

compare nt to foundations, comparing the clinton foundation to the donald pretty undation is a decomparison to make. i will take the clinton scenario in that everyday. host: ralph, good morning. was hearing donald trump in pittsburgh at the infrastructure in pennsylvania, highways and bridges are so terrible. that is a little hard to see in a ou fly around corporate jet and another caller repair, he liked that the only infrastructure that i know in pennsylvania was the outside of philadelphia. but i don't know why i have to in traffic because i'm always being stopped because they're fixing the bridge. mean, the bridges in ennsylvania has been going on ast astronomiccal since president was in office. guest: yeah, look, the nfrastructure issue in

pennsylvania are not small. i mean, it is significant that we nd i think probably underestimate just how any bridges and roads are in desperate need of repair and the too often thing is you don't see the urgency behind accident s until an happens and you just hope that it doesn't end with some sort of in a lot of cases, the thing that gets the money moving is an accident. hopefully we'll be able to take care of the most urgent continue diately and to invest in the infrastructure. infrastructure, like i said the e, driver of pennsylvania economy. it also creates jobs and investing in infrastructure is way to get people working in pennsylvania again. ost: infrastructure issues becoming, sort of key campaign issue? ticket, ther down the the senate or house that we yet?'t talked about

guest: i think there are candidates talking about i'm not cture issues, sure partisan divide on it. i think both sides agree in infrastructure is priority. it is just a question of how are you going to spend the money. up : caller brought pittsburgh, carnona is waiting. good morning. hi.er: i'm calling with what i think are pretty scary idea. a good chance if donald that we're cted going to have a wall street crash and possibly a financial collapse, worse than what we experienced in 2008-2009. to the poor means trump hat will vote for is that people will lose their jobs. you mark nevins, let respond. guest: well, i don't know what i'm not of that is,

sure that you can argue necessarily that one candidate r the other would cause necessarily a wall street crash. really , i think it comes down to which candidate of economic terms genda, you know, i think for anybody undecided and that is increasingly small number, my educate ation is yourself. go read about the candidates. certainly no shortage of news, you can the find it on cnn, or msnbc or fox, news outlet you prefer. educate yourself, take the time websites,the candidate read about their position and make your own decision and try be influenced by what is out there. t is hard to separate issue from sensationalism. host: robert is on the line, good morning. good morning. that all ave to say

these people calling in to say of a re democrats and all sudden they vote for trump. i would like to ask them, did they vote for obama? don't think they voted for obama. up, er, you know, growing i'm 80 years old and i've seen a lot here in pennsylvania, other years plus i was in the military. there was a town that they built a whole new the town, what i know, they wouldn't let black folks move in there. is why have you all white folks live in the suburbs, they buy n't let black folks homes. if you really love trump and we and he said about women what he dolled to women, and he's supposed to be christians, understand it. host: mark nevins, on gender and campaign.ues in this guest: yeah. ithink one of the things that

personally find concerning and donald trump is not only sort of the cavalier way in which he talks about assault, whether he was joking or it was locker room seemed to strike a sour note with a lot of voters and a lot of women. there are speaking, moderate republican women in the suburbs of philadelphia, where perform well, who just can't see voting for donald be a and that is going to problem for him. they will vote for hillary clinton or not going to vote at suppress his l turnout and his baseload. thend it equally concerning stories you read about the his ry of donald trump and father's apartment building, you business, you know, it was a long time ago, but the concerning that they would mark applications for apartment rentals with the

c for colored, if it was somebody of minority, whether or hispanic and they used that as a way to whether or not they wanted to rent to these people. stories the sorts of anecdotes or facts that are -- that i think people need to take into consideration when deciding whether they want to support a candidate for president. host: newcastle, pennsylvania, is next, frank, good morning. one of the i'm lifelong democrats. i did vote for obama twice. for the big scam he had going with the hope in change. elected and there was no change. name me one person in his wasn't already in washington or entrenched in washington. same bologna from governor wolf when he said he listen to o underneath the ground, hear that, that will pay for our

infrastructure, and he turned around and said what we wanted to hear, but did just like obama said what we want to hear and does nothing. going to y clinton is be the same way. i feel donald trump, i'm voting for donald trump because i to be an independent. i think he will drain washington what they that is are all afraid of and don't want him to become president and you lop-sided news coverage clinton.and host: mark nevins. there is aid before, current of concern among voters particularly in places like newcastle, places in similar economic conditions, where people feel leaving them m is behind and they want somebody who is going to blow it up and

is nothing to put in its place, no specifics for start overe going to with some sort of new system, it matter. they're comfortable with somebody saying they're going to tear down the whole system. think that concerns people, that concerns a lot of voters, a and moderate dent voters, certainly not that caller, but a lot of people are tt erned with the idea we're going to tear it all down and have nothing in its place. host: 10 minutes left. let's go to steve, nauls pennsylvania. steve, good morning. good morning. the reason i'm calling you is one of i guess i am these liberal democrats that can't take trump and i want to you, i am a -- and i drafted and drafted and working in a factory and for me, this is personal. i have my cousin that was killed

action at 18 years old in vietnam when i was there. aunt and uncle gold star parents. also am very upset with the way donald trump disrespects the pow's and he just singled out mccain, but there were 114 pow's that died in captivity in vietnam. he also went against that he have to the people that ptsd are not strong enough. he ld trump is a coward, never showed up. he could have gone there, he wants to bring a strong military fight with everybody, but when it is his turn to fight, he didn't do it. have a handicapped grandson. handicapped grandson is a pleasure. we are a military oriented with us to e goes the vfw, watches parades and va hospital.

i don't know how many hospitals donald trump has gone to. pittsburgh, we have an individual on the 18th of to ber and he stood with me hold the flag for 15 minutes. this is all personal. you attack people that veterans and ack fellow veterans accept this, it is beyond belief. been so disenchanted with the people in this country that who stand up for somebody did this and even with the women, i have a mother, i god -- she is dead, thank she has gone to her reward, but my mother would hear this is crazy. daughters. i have sisters. whenever you think that it is abuse some woman is beyond belief. these people, this is what they are nod the reason there jobs and we lost our job system because of people like donald rump that will buy from foreigne

foreigners, steel and everything else. union, if it wasn't for the union, i probably wouldn't have what i have today. people in this country, they -- these are veterans that people i the union, went to war with, most were union people. nevins.ark guest: yeah. first, thank you to steve for service and awful story about losing your cousin in vietnam. think that what steve is expressing for a lot of people is not uncommon. a lot of people this lection is very personal, whether women or veterans, the comments,rved the sort of approach or the sort demeanor of donald trump and his message has struck note with people and that has made this election sensational, a lot more personal, perhaps a lot

vitriolous than previous elections. even when things got tough or was undercurrent of undercurrentere was of substantive discussion, but like s election, it seems there is more personal attack, a vitrial and the to running for president, which is certainly different than anything we have sure it is i'm not a net for the country. host: the caller mentions gold star families. showed this to viewers in the opening segment. khan electified the democratic national convention is hitting trail in virginia, this according to the l.a. times, stop around norfolk on wednesday, according to hillary campaign. go ahead. who : i mean, for people

have seen the commercial with khan, even if you heard him speak at the convention, i was there and heard him speak, having heard him speak before watching the commercial to him is still chilling listen to him talk about his son and what that sacrifice means being a muslim american and with or his oncern problem with donald trump. is articulate and authentic. clinton mercial by campaign late last week. you can find it online. wakertown, pennsylvania, go ahead. caller: i want to say if donald be a miraclet will because hillary clinton has the pocket, the f.b.i. in her pocket, the i.r.s. in her the justice department in her pocket. and wood in her pocket

george soros in her pocket. ow i find out she's got the atf, too, because they destroyed in ence in that bombing north carolina, and painted right over it so nobody could see it. i just, the only question i have s when is the democratic party going to apologize to richard nixon? mark nevins. guest: sound like big pockets, to have lot of stuff in your pocket. i'm not sure i agree with the caller. i think that, you know, those independent agencys and they have been pretty tough n secretary clinton at various times. but one thing i do agree with, it would take roughly something of a miracle to have donald trump win this election, that is not opinion, that is just based on the math and

of the national electoral college math. t's going to be very difficult for him. the path he has to winning in so narrow now that it is really getting to be a for him. road host: outside presidential race, democrats hope they can win back the house this cycle. what would that mean, what would need to happen in pennsylvania to contribute to that effort. that it is interesting, race, in a way has very little to do with the candidates. they are debating and running ads attacking each other making their cases, why you should vote for one or he other or why you should not vote for one or the other, but really in my view, the end of it will have more to do with what happens at the top of goes cket f. pennsylvania for secretary clinton, by five, six, seven points or more, i

will be hard for senator toomey to overcome that, and i think ind, that could carry katie mcginty whereas e finish line, if pennsylvania is more narrow i gin, five points or lower, think that obviously senator toomey's advantage. the presidential election will lot to do with how the senate race plays out. host: what about the house race pennsylvania? guest: sure. you know, the redistricting, i this in talked about the last segment, redistricting in pennsylvania at the level was done at the beginning of the decade and in a way were drawn that basically ensured that all safe.ents were pretty so a lot of districts are not hands, there are a small handful of competitive congressionalghth district, north of philadelphia in buck's county primarily, open

that is particularly competitive in the sixth district. is pretty good mix of republicans and democrats, that more republicans since redistricting, that is competitive race. out are handful of them there, for the most part, the incumbent in pennsylvania are in that is whereape, they drew the line. host: another pennsylvania caller, lan caster, pennsylvania, john, go ahead. caller: hello. arguments, i'm for change. is, you know, the tax code is changing in this years.y over the last 30 i'm 67 years old. the way trade is conducted has hanged through the trade agreements. you have corporations now through the wto, not even a organization, but government agreed to rganization has access to the united states treasury, if they perceive that their profits were

laws sovereign nation passes. i'm totally against that. people that benefit from globalization through the tax code have the that.ty to do that are an people left behind don't. and both taerts have left this setting the stew. you can look and see the income has ality that this created. host: john, running out of time. give mark nevins a chance to its is and perhaps appropriate we end on trade, an issue that has been such a big speeches the ump candidates are making as they travel through pennsylvania. guest: sure. this, working on races all over the country and we're hearing the conversation place rade taking everywhere from california to upstate new york. diverse lot of very points of view on this. frankly it's one of the areas donald trump and bernie sanders agree, they both were to sed or are opposed

transpacific partnership, the know, and deal, you there are some candidates and some elected officials who great way to a expand the economy. i think people, that is an issue defys partisanship. voters interested in trade or an issue in ade as this election should take time o learn about those issues, understand what they mean and figure out where they stand on their ues and match up position with candidates who share those positions and that s one of the areas that probably doesn't get a lot of coverage on the news, doesn't get a lot of conversation and people care about the issues, take the time to learn bout them and vote for candidates that share their position. host: mark nevins, with the dover trategy group, strategy group dot com. check him out at twitter. this iate your time morning as we focus on pennsylvania.

>> we take you live to georgetown university in washington for a conversation with health and human services secretary cynthia -- cynthia burwell who will take questions if e.j. dionne and from the audience. it's part of the school's exit interview series with cabinet secretaries and other senior obama administration officials, discussing the administration's successes, failures and regrets over the last eight year. and the officials will offer advice to the next administration. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2016]