about five friends you have. a family member, somebody at your church, somebody in the -- don't try to do ten or twenty . think of five people who are maybe leaning for trump or two me or just on or are undecided and you can convince them. well maybe there. maybe there's something maybe they are 22. a bernie bro and doesn't really think they're going to vote and make it sure a mission to find just five people find five people and make it your mission to educate them to take them to the polls and you know there's -- unless you make a that make an appeal to them. tell them how great katie is. talk to them about hillary and coach them and teach them and

mentor them and then make sure you personally take off work and take them to the polls on election day. it will make all the difference in the world and in a race that looks as close as her race is they say and i know in pencil you're going to be i know you're

going to win for hillary here but that's tough to obviously in the end particularly this part of the state outside allegheny county but but put your put your personal just make that list in your mind write it down when you go home and think about who those five people are the. to make a big difference to get them to go to the polls and vote democratic. so thank you for all you do. thanks for what you do for the labor movement that we're both in closing i would you have to put up a great thanks as always to this thing for four forty -- 449, joe little thank you very much for being our host today. >> thank you senator sherrod brown for making the trip as always thank you for being such a top. thanks to our elected officials that the great us today and your friendship is something that is never forgotten thank you thank you very much. thank you. my final statement as to my brothers and sisters in organized labor today. a billionaire has questioned your democracy. he feels he has the right to say he will accept or not accept what we have died for. think about that. you have a chance to make a statement that our democracy is great and sure. [applause]

>> people have questioned the power of organized labor for far too long and as you see, it just keeps coming. as one leader moves, another one .teps and we fight harder as i look at the camera and i speak to all of you right now, people question our labor movement and our power. my message to you is "careful what you wish for." rank you. get out and vote on november 8 -- thank you. get out and vote on november 8. [applause] [crowd noise]

>> i hope i have a little more time on my hands, not a whole lot of time on my hands. sure. thank you, guys. >> thank you for being here. thank you so much.

>> you guys have for a long time. i appreciate your counsel. >> whatever you need. >> thank you so much for the hospitality. absolutely. all. to see you thank you so much. [crowd noise] >> making a huge difference for us. >> go knocking on the doors -- >> it means the world. >> thank you very much.

>> i was wondering if i can get you to sign? >> what are their names? [indiscernible] >> yeah.

[crowd noise] >> my kids wanted to meet you -- my girls. [crowd noise] >> thank you for being here. thank you for the work you do. >> thank you. >> thank you so much. >> you are amazing. [indiscernible] proud. very very >> thank you very very much. absolutely.

>> hi. i am daniel. >> hello daniel. >> i am a volunteer. >> thank you so much. do you live here? >> i live in london. picture?get a >> thank you so much. >> 1, 2, 3. it looks like theresa may is doing a pretty good job. -- novemberd quite knife is our brexit moment. you.am so voting for >> been there.

>> that was pretty good. how are you? >> so good to see -- of course. >> wandered in the back of the room. >> got to go. >> it was so awesome. [crowd noise] >> coming up on c-span, a look at the 2016 election and political polls. donald trump campaigns and wisconsin -- and wasp -- in wisconsin and the hillary clinton in fort lauderdale, florida. >> washington journal live every

day with news and policy issues that impact you. wednesday morning, the history and public affairs professor at winston. -- at princeton looks back at the presidential election between al gore and president bush to see if there is any comparison to this year's election. supreme court correspondent for the new york times on the recent studies on whether elected judges and be independent from the politics of their supporters and the election process. he will talk about upcoming cases. and the legal reporter for energy wire on the recent protests in north dakota led by the standing rock tribe over the decoder access pipeline. -- the dakota access pipeline.

c-span's coverage of state races continues wednesday night with two senate debates. face-off.na, a that is live at 8:00 p.m. on c-span. faces maggie hassan. you can see that at 9:00 p.m. eastern on c-span. >> this week on c-span2, we are featuring political radio programs with national talkshow hosts. on wednesday, conservative radio talk show host is alive from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. eastern. live thursday from noon until 3:00, author and progressive radio host. from 9:00 until noon, a perspective on the mike gallagher show live from new york city.

all this week live on c-span2. withw a conversation pollsters. the 2016 election and how polls are used. it is a part of an event hosted by the american university school of fumigation. it is just over an hour. >> good evening everyone. i am the dean of the school of medication and i want to welcome you here. i want to welcome c-span2 come all of the students, faculty and invited guests. -- our school of

affairs is cohosting the event tonight. including a joint class that went to new hampshire, 40 students for five days to carry cover the primary in february. a forum in april featuring diane feinstein, the author of when women win. and a debate watch party a few weeks ago. i want to thank our cosponsors, kpu, i also want to acknowledge and recognize the person who truly is the inspiration for much of what we do and certainly this kind of event, dotty lynch.

dottie wasn't expected to have residence in the school of communication in the inaugural cold director of our communication program. strongly administered masters program between the school of communication in the school of public affairs. dottie, you may have known her was a leading political analysts who headed the desk at cbs news and was the first women to serve as a pollster for presidential campaign, walter mondale. anyone who knew dottie knew she would be delighted to have two influential women here tonight to talk to about the election. their rising stars in their field and when she was a pioneer. the plan for the evening is simple, we'll get started with questions posed by our moderators and we want this to be very interactive. we will have time for q&a with all of you. please be thinking of your questions and be ready to test these experts. i want to also now introduce my colleague and friend. [applause] >> good evening.

welcome to everybody who is here. i especially want to welcome our guest speakers who are joining us on such an important topic at such an important time of the year. as dean of the school of public affairs it is always a delight to cooperate with the school of communications on a political communications program. especially for something as exciting as this. i am particularly grateful for the school of public affairs betsy martin, and school of communication residence for their work in organizing the event night. -- the event tonight. as you know, american, american university is no stranger to politics. while many people are uncomfortable talking about politics, it's actually our comfort zone and what we like to talk about. many students students come because they like it too.

so we love elections, but of course this particular election season has pushed the boundaries of politics in many ways. nonetheless, in a democracy, voting is one of the most important actions citizens can take. given tonight's topic, a quick poll if you will indulge me. how many of you are about to vote in a presidential election for the first time? fabulous. [laughter] >> i see plenty of first timers. i see a few more seasoned members in the audience as well. we will count that you have already done your duty in years past. the word democracy means power to the people.

i hope those of you who are first-timers will exercise your power and vote next week. and many thanks to those of you who have already voted early or absentee. i am pleased to have the responsibility to introduce our speakers tonight. kristin anderson and margie o'mara are cohosts of the popular podcast call the pollsters. as a team, they will share bipartisan thoughts on polling, our country's political system and voter behavior. both women are very accomplished. tonight i will only be able to touch on a few of their impressive achievements. ms. anderson is the author of the book, the selfie vote, where millennial's are leading america. she is the cofounder and a columnist to the washington examiner. she was recently a fellow at harvard institute of politics and served as vice president of the winston group. a republican polling firm in d.c. time magazine named anderson one of their 30 under 30 for

changing the world. is the executive vice president of affairs which is a democratic polling and strategy firm. she has more than 20 years of experience with elections, politics, and policy. she founded momentum analysis which is a democratic polling firm serving nonprofits, advocacy groups and political candidates. omero one of the

politicos to watch. so we have two people who have been on the radar for their remarkable contributions. both of our speakers are seasoned media commentators, regularly interviewed by major news outlets, including the washington post, the new york times. they are also frequent guests on msnbc, cnn, and npr, just to name a few. no doubt they are in high demand this week and i think you both for being here during a busy time. please welcome kristin and margie. [applause] ms. anderson thank you all for : being here. we are excited to have this dynamic duo of pollsters here. they are up early this morning on a morning show it here they are tonight. this is a treat and we appreciate them being here. i want to start by asking you, we've had two or maybe three october surprises but now or in november, how is it that what we have seen over the last week in ?erms of the polls are they tightening at all or were they tightening before this latest incident with the fbi in the email?

>> there's a different story depending if you're looking at national polls or polls in key swing states. national polls have seen a significant swing over the last two weeks. the nbc wall street journal poll shown a double digit margin nationally for hillary clinton. the nbc washington post tracking poll, not too long ago showed a 12-point margin for hillary clinton over donald trump. and today that abc poll may news because they announce they're currently showing trump up by one. that is a huge decline over a short period of time. the question is how much of that is real. how much are people changing their minds and and really making serious decisions to change their voting behavior? whether that's third-party to a major party candidate, go go -- go home go to the polls, , whatever and how much of it is actual change in the sample of who were talking to. -- talking to? how much of it is who decides to pick up at the phone on a given day? that's an interesting question we don't really have the answer to. at the state level you saw some shrinking of clinton's lead over the last week or so but not as dramatically as what you're

seeing from things like that abc poll. so the question in the swing states things like the ads on television, have they made a more stable race in terms of that places where you may not have a constant dilution of trump and clinton as on the airways but you're much more swayed by whatever's happened in in the new cycle at that moment. >> it also seems like there is tightening before the letter came out. the two polls that have really examine the post comey letter, this saturday, sunday and friday night. there is a morning political poll and then survey monkey poll and tried to explore the reaction to the letter on friday and they came to the same conclusion that it's not making a difference. voters are viewing it through the lens of their own partisan leanings. there is no convincing now. there is no october november surprise that could really move

people, ultimately these surprises are reinforcing things we already know about the candidates. this new letter issue is really just a continuation of the email private server story we were talking about for a long time. whatever happens with with trump is a continuation of crazy truck -- crazy trump doing whatever his latest tweet or insult -- it's just another continuation of what we are ready know about him. so people are not really saying , ok, that's the final straw and i'm changing to the other candidate. that's where you get the sense that things are baked in. then the last thing to look at is what are we seeing in terms of early voting and votes that have been baked in? so if you you have some states where you have 25 million people -- >> what can you tell from early voting?

>> it seems like the democratic advantage in a lot of states like florida, north carolina, where people are saying there is an advantage, but there's others too. on the other hand you see news today about how the math may be -- the map may be changing, where you now have democrats now putting money and states that were considered put away like colorado, wisconsin and michigan were on the list. those were states that were seen as states for hillary clinton. the fact that there's can be an ad by clinton and their allies in the states, does that mean democrats are panicking and the race is tightening? do they have the resources to spend and make sure they're safe everywhere? and help down ballots for congress, senate some of the states? we don't know. that's part of what the spin game is. that's another way to look at and be able to gauge what are the candidate seen internally , because they are reacting to something internally just to see trump votes going to wisconsin and there's something internal

there. >> there been so much focus on different groups this election, either turnout groups for either -- i'd love to know from each of you, what groups are you looking at that are most interesting? so week from tonight if you're looking at the exit polls and really wanted to understand how the race is coming together, what groups will you be looking at? >> every group is important, you can't get there without getting votes from every group. but two groups that are important are latinos and white, non-college-educated voters -- or at least looking at white voters by education. so every election cycle they become a larger share of the electorate, but a decreasing share of labor vote -- of a vote for republican.

44%,orge w. bush got romney got a little over a quarter, trump some polls are at 19%. if latinos increase and he's at 19% is going to be very difficult for him to make up that ground anywhere else. the other pieces to look at what happens with white, educated or without college. that's a real division and important demographic shift that we don't always see, we don't always focus on. but what college-educated voters have never them voted democratic. so one washington post poll had a 30 point advantage with college-educated women, up tied a little bit with white college-educated men. if she wins with white college-educated voters and trump gets 19% latinos will be very difficult for him to run the score with everybody not in those groups. >> for me the group i would add to that would be millennial's. the way the exit polls work,

there will be a group of voters that they look at that are under age 30s. that's not the millennial generation, there's a good chunk of those that are the 30s, that's where i land. so up i'm watching the older -- so i am watching the older millennial's to see that these are the folks that came of age during hope and change, perhaps during the end of the bush administration. this is a group is a group that has been locked in that is pretty democratic. republicans have almost lost the chance to win the group back. is this a group where republicans, at least down ballot have a shot? survey monkey put out of map last week about what the electoral college would look like if only millennials voted.

it was blue, except for kentucky, west virginia, idaho and wyoming were the only states where republicans won. it's not always like that. during the election in 2004 we have been the red state, george that the bush -- george w. bush was winning regular voters. romney and obama came for a draw in places like indiana. even though we think of young voters says leaning to the left it's not always the case and as dramatic as what were seen now. many polls there doing polls with usa today, there tending to find donald trump winning only one every five winners. so george w. bush and al gore almost tied with the youth vote in 2000. by the time he gets a 2014 george w. bush is losing, that 2004, in 2008 you get a huge margin. john mccain still is a third of the youth vote. it's a historic blowout. yet republican candidates still think it one out of three. donald trump would be lucky to get one out of five. so another piece to the equation, we know that young voters are breaking away from

trumpet how much will they turn -- away from trumpet but -- away from trump but how much will they turn out? this is a huge are known. i get asked a lot, young voters are very disappointed, they like third-party candidates, not one more than the other but overall you have only 40% of young voters that have a positive view of clinton which is not a positive election for a lot of young people. that raises the question that if younger voters are breaking for clinton, she needs him to turn out in big numbers to offset whatever majority trump will have among the 65 and up crowd. if younger voters do stay home that could be one thing that's a problem for the democrats. >> younger voters have always been lower turnout. it's always been a challenge. when i first moved to washington 20 years ago, we had a big project for the league of women voters and we had to study what was, what drove voting behavior and wasn't feeling alienated? or politics were broken? it was was really age, more than any demographic, or attitude toward politics.

and this is no long time ago. a lot of that is true now. it's not the the fault of younger voters. it is not the fault of politicians necessarily. it is just part of being in a place for a long enough time where you feel connected to the place where you live, your -- you live, are you a homeowner? -- i have now for a vote history were someone's knocked on my door a bunch of times. all of the pieces help drive voter turnout. one of the reasons millennials now at any age and era are , voting less. >> what is the secret sauce to motivate younger voters? what does motivate them? >> i think it's the same thing that motivates voters across the board, what's in it for them. people are viewing politics and everything through their eyes and what it means for them.

so talking about what it means for someone else's a little removed. i was talking to someone about climate change, while important to millennials, it's harder sometimes for voters to feel that immediacy and urgency right now. so how do you make voters feel connected to the issues where they really feel it matters of matters and it is not just a -- feel itabbling? matters and it is not just a part of squabbling? >> to a large degree, i think that's been an issue on the campaign doesn't seem like there's a lot of issue. >> i think a number we talked about on the podcast, i believe dallas was asking the questions going back over decades where they say our presidential candidates talking about issues that are important to you. even four years ago you had a majority, as much as three quarters saying -- three quarters of the electorate saying yes.

you may not like those candidates but they're talking about issues that matter. historically that number has, as he approached election day. this year it's below happen going down. that's among all voters but you can see for young voters in particular, if they feel unfavorably toward the candidates that this is been a problem. it is a self reinforcing vicious cycle that on the one hand you have politicians who will come to folks like me and say that young voters don't vote so why should i do this outreach and -- do this outreach? and the younger voters said the politicians are doing outreach to me? so i should be i reward them with my vote? and politicians say younger voters don't vote. and on it goes. i encourage both parts to try to break that cycle. >> i wanted to ask what you have been referencing which is the million-dollar question at this point about turnout specifically . i know turnout and trying to predict turnout and project which groups account for some of

the variation in the polls that you see. what you expect in terms of turnout question market will this be a high turnout election, low turnout? i think this the speculation has been all over. >> it's hard to know. we had the former president of research at pew on our show and he said this is a universe that doesn't exist yet. you are asking people to self-report the likelihood of voting. they they will overreport, maybe some of you over reported when he say maybe you have an intention so you just raised her hand and said i'm going to do it. so they want to overreport or they may something gets in the way and they don't get around to voting. it's hard to know exactly. you're relying on the best information you have or you ask other questions like you look at the voter file which has their

history. sometimes composite stores that you can predict how likely someone is to vote. you can ask about their enthusiasm and whether they know their polling place. those kind of questions have other kind of biases that may send you in the wrong direction. a lot of the polling suggests that people feel less inclined to vote than they have even if they're more engaged in the election. when you see early voting advantages with some states with more early voting in past years maybe that means there will be higher turnout. >> what you think in terms of the turnout operation on both sides? does that matter in producing turnout? --conditional wisdom says conventional wisdom says a good grounding will get you a point or two. on the republican side there's not really much of a grounds came to speak of. this is been a campaign were -- campaign where donald trump

has performed a miracle with almost none of the conventional campaign apparatus that you would expect. i remember the romney campaign laughing it matters to have an -- campaign laughing. it matters to have an office in your neighborhood where volunteers can go and take materials a knock on doors and say hello to their fronts. donald trump got a lot of attention and earned media. he is good at getting people to rally. the question is does that turn into votes? or does it turn into people buying hats with your slogan on it. i don't know that we know the answer to that question. when it came to the primaries , trump would often say he's bringing new people into the process. that's what he'll do in the generals. a lot of the folks that he was bringing out into the primary where people who were already registered to vote and already people who tended to vote in generals. they just did not really vote in primaries. it's a question of how much lift can he get from this new, secret, activated trump boat out

there. a lot of those sorts of are in the tank for republicans, already factored into how he thought about the election. >> polls show that half of republicans are evenly divided on whether they like trump or would prefer a different candidate. this was a poll from a week or two ago. i think without that ground game , there's a chance that republicans will feel unenthusiastic about voting. on the democratic side we have the ground game and i know there's conventional wisdom or myth that democrats are not excited about hillary clinton. she has consolidated over much of the sander voters behind her earlier than obama didn't 2008. -- obama did in 2008. while she had some challenges overall in terms of her favorability, she doesn't have the same challenges that trump has among republicans. >> the overall polling has taken up a lot of space in campaign

discussions at rallies, trump is -- at rallies. trump is always citing this poll or that poll. talk to us as professionals in the polling business. how do we as consumers of news decide what good poll is to be trusted? and a non-reliable poll? >> that's a good question. on the one hand you have folks that will say don't trust the polls. they are already and all skewed. on the other hand with trump data points on their buy-in -- be a skeptic. that is ok. you don't have to trust the polls 110%. polls are exactly alike. our firms are involved in an interesting experience for they did a a survey of voters in -- did a survey of voters in florida. they call people off the voter

file, registered voters, you know how often they voted in the past, and that did the interview -- and they did the interviews and gave us the same data set. and they they said tell us what you think, how much is at an -- how much is trump up? how much is clinton up? every firm found a different answer. i think your firm said clinton up by four, my firm found cleanup by one, some researchers found trump up by one. >> it's in the data set that came in plus seven. >> so this is something -- [inaudible] >> my firm is actually here. >> anytime you can adjust a survey it's unlikely that you are getting a perfectly representative sample. the good news is that we know a lot about who tends to turn out to vote and what we think the electorate is going to look like.

whether it's major government surveys, exit polls from past elections. what we know about boat history. -- we know about vote history. you can take the factors and come up with your idea of what you think the electorate will look like. some pollsters choose choose to wait their data and balance it out. -- if we have too many women and not enough men we way to the data so that every man's

interview counts different in every women's interview counts different and in the end it will look like what the election really looks like. that is where it gets to be art as much a science. there are things like in the los angeles times is doing a poll with the university of southern california. they have a panel panel of people that they keep talking to. it's the same group of voters they keep going back to. it's unique and unusual for a survey of this nature. they find there is an analysis that there's one responded to the poll and african america poll, a 19-year-old african-american living in illinois who really likes donald trump. every time he is in the panel donald trump goes up at least one point. that is because of the waiting period it's very hard to get young men, young african-american men, someone is 19 years old will be hard to reach. your voice is going to count for a lot in the poll to compensate for how hard it is to interview people like you. so because you have one respondent who really likes donald trump his motives counting as much as 30 times. that's a critique of that study and that's why you see that poll be in so pro trump. >> god blessed them. they released all of the data. >> they were transparent about it. >> that analysis, analysis, you don't have, internal polls, private polls for candidates for nonprofits and organizations will release their numbers and they won't release the full data set. you don't need to really. that's a really high bar in terms of transparency.

you are just trusting their judgment. when you look at polls, it doesn't mean they are bad. it could mean someone had a different assumption about whether party or the party difference was three points or four points. that can make a really big difference, could be something in terms of methodology, whether it is live calls online. how much people being reached on her cell phone. what kind of panel folks are reaching online. how they are counting for likely voters doing differently. so all those different fluctuations really contribute to some of the fluctuation you see in the polls. it doesn't mean they're all bad. there is this trend where people doubt the polls they disagree with. people doubt people doubt the -- people doubt the polls they disagree with. the washington post has done

this showing that people disagree with any poll that they did not like the outcome. that they were suspicious of it. that was very much symbolic of what has been going on in the cycle. about 80% of the candidates don't even agree on the basic facts, let alone the policy approaches they had. the sense that everybody's living on their own. >> the polling being part of that, i think it's a symptom rather than a cause and people want to create their own reality . been caught up in that as opposed to be the cause of that. >> if you want to air on the side of caution, poll aggregators. one poll throw you off or think oh my gosh, the poll showed that clinton was up by four but now trump is up by one, what's going on. stay calm. there's fluctuation is normal. it is typical, pollsters have different assumptions. poll aggregators are your best bet. who has time to go through and every singleugh

poll and understand what the specific methodological strength and weaknesses are. there is nothing such as a gold standard poll anymore. you can call people on phone but it's hard to reach. you can do online but you're missing some folks there. you can call voter files but the near missing you registrants. you can call randomly but are you capturing real voters. averaging and looking at these averages -- which even averages diverge nowadays. at least your smoothing out some of that. >> what about tracking polls? >> it is unique. the way that it works is you cut a rolling sample going on. so instead of calling a thousand -- calling 1000 people over two days, analyzing that survey and callingg it, they are maybe a couple people a night

and then the next night another couple hundred. they will rotated, were looking at the most recent three days. they'll drop out dropout a hundred people in at a hundred new people. that's why some the tracking polls are seeing donald trump picking up different points because people falling out of the sample. it is creating a trend line. >> i would love to know your takes and you have a podcast called "the pollster." you are advocates for polling as am i. i would like to know your reaction and the role that polling has played this year in the republican debates last summer that candidates, 'placement on the stage was determined by the position in their poll and there is actually two debates and people call it the varsity and the jv and it was dependent on candidates position in the polls. i would have to know what you think of that.

isn't that an appropriate use of -- is that an appropriate use of polling are not? >> there's an interesting interview we did, it said we are not going to release anymore republican ballot test before the first debate because we do not want our poll to be abused in this way. >> people are doing crazy things and doing stunts. they're trying to get themselves to get on stage. this is wrong. we are looking at a poll of 800 registered voters your margin of error is going to be high enough that the difference between being been carson and rick santorum might be statistical noise early on. on the one hand, what are the criteria can he use? -- criteria you are going to use? how can you do this? if you have 17 people you have

to have some method of deciding. on the other hand the frustration was the use of very small statistically insignificant differences between candidates to make significant decisions about their placement. what the candidates have had their first debate and have had their chance to be in front of voters, at that point, i think it was like you could do the polls normally. voters had a chance to see the folks. if you're in there at 2%, that's on you. that's your problems. but at at the beginning it was very volatile and all of these candidates around a very slim margin, was it appropriate to do that? i don't know. it's hard for me to think of what a fair alternative would be to make that really difficult distinction. >> we have come a long ways in industry from 20 years ago when i set a party and set i'm a pollster and someone was really excited because she thought i was an upholsterer. said everybody wants to be a

pollster. so there's data visualization and statistical modeling a big -- modeling and data. and people think that polling is but it is also being able to have an ear to what voters are thinking. it's qualitative, it's focus group and writing messages that make sense. it is being able to tell a story . what the data say and being able to write questions that translate what your client wants to know and what they think a respondent cares about it wants to understand. and be able to translate. all of those things are totally different than statistical modeling, big data and multi- analysis.

you need to be able to be fluent in all of it. i think that something that is shortchanged in some of the dialogue. is it 42.3? 42.2? maybe it's raked. that stuff is a very small part of what goes on behind the scenes. >> we want to get to some questions. we have a couple of quick questions before we go to the audience. favorite poll question? what really tells you something about a voter. >> this is a good one. do you want to go first yet go go first?t yet go -- >> i'm trying to think. you can pick favorite or worse. i don't want to call it like the worst, i have a beef with it and it's longitudinal so i can appreciate that they don't want to change it, it's a stronger gun laws. so how we talk about gun laws has changed a lot over decades and how we view gun laws.

it used to be as gun control. that's the phrase we use. but when you use the word control, it changes the responses of having people support stronger gun laws. there is a significant difference. studies have shown that. places like pew, they have been great. they been asking about gun control for 20 years. they're not going to throw their question wording out and lose all of the tracking which is viable. so pew has an example of a question which is what you think is more important, controlling gun ownership or giving the rights of people to own a gun and that controlling done ownership which doesn't talk about the means, not the actual end of why we would do that, i think that really has a distorted view of how people view stronger gun laws. that's my piece that i've been

on my soap box. like my one question soapbox for a long time. that to me is an example of how it really drives what people think about what public opinion is when lots of other show something different. >> i can do my polling beef and this is informed by the news today. this question when you ask people about something that happened in the news that it says does this make you more or less likely to vote for someone? these questions are silly because when you break down the results, all of the people say it makes me less likely to vote for someone. they were already in the other party and not voting for them anyway. and folks say this makes no difference. or they are ready supported that candidate. for the most part i think it can be interesting if you see a significant portion of people in someone's own party that says yes that makes me less likely to vote for them. you can see the changes in the ballot. and this goes to the earlier

question of how is coverage of the race change because of the -- the race changed because of the polls. i see mountains getting made out where trump will say something and it'll say 70% of voters are less likely to vote for trump because of this thing he said. and then polls will come out over the next week and the polls haven't moved. so i caution people and i think one of the most interesting ways you can really study the people's minds are changing our studies were over time you're monitoring the same people as if their minds change which is why that poll mentioned before. there are problems with it but the idea about going back and talking to the same people is interesting. did the excess hollywood tape force -- so individuals over time they were trump voters and then suddenly there were clinton

voters. that's interesting. sometimes we love to read into -- probably haven't read like the wiki leaks email and so they're just responded based on what you already think about these candidates. i think it's the over interpretation of some of the stuff that has been my beef. >> that is the answer we all want to know. what what does this mean to your vote? people say nothing or i don't know, or whatever, whatever, let's go to the next question. we are looking for people to talk about polls and people who watch campaigns are desperate for some kind of change and something to talk about. i think people are looking for that to say here it is. and it's not always there. voters are not quite that sensitive that something breaks on friday and by friday night everybody's minds have changed. >> not everybody reads twitter. [laughter] >> we will move to audience

questions. just one quick question before we go to that. maybe you have some aspiring pollsters or at least folks and students were very interested in political careers. can you give a quick tip or piece of advice in terms of your own career? what should they be thinking or remember as they are thinking about their own future in politics? >> the best pollsters are those who do not think of it as entirely math or verbal. if you're thinking a polling you have to take these statistic classes and have to know how to use art, and yes you do. but it's also about can you craft a message that is compelling? can you sit in a focus group and talk to people for 90 minutes and really learn how to extract interesting insights into what the thinking and feeling. -- what they are thinking and feeling. so psychology, rhetoric, these,

these things matter to being a good pollster. especially if you will do this in washington, knowing a a thing or two about policy matters. when i was in graduate school, i tried to take a few classes as possible about pulling itself in statistics and try to take classes about things like foreign-policy, the intelligence community, things outside of my scope. if i have got a client who walks through the door and wants to do a study about what americans think about u.s. foreign policy or what to americans think about education policy. if i have a little bit of knowledge about the actual discussions happening in those fields that will make me a better pollster. being well-rounded is important. don't think that you have to become a stats geek. you have to be a message gate, -- message geek. you have to be a well grounded person. >> you have to be open-minded about voters. if you find yourself in a bubble

or in a life where you're not meeting folks different walks of life. you're not traveling the country or meeting diverse people and that is going to affect how open you are, to hearing about what other voters are thinking about. you have to really go out and talk to voters, or at least surround yourself with different kinds of people to hear the different kinds of conversations. >> great. i think we will move to some audience questions. we have two folks who are going to be coming around with mics. couldould ask, if you stand to ask your question, tell us your name and what school you are from. we are trying to get as many

questions as possible. we are not here to give campaign statements, but really, ask the experts their opinions and thoughts on things. guzman.ame is jacob de thank you for sharing your extremely valuable time with us. we have heard a lot about how much the national news media has been affecting voters and butter voter outlook. if you could give the news media one piece of advice they would actually take, what would that be? >> i think we will go back to what i said about, don't make a mountain out of a mole hill. learned, i don't want to go there, but as a republican, i have walked on the side that say, there is liberal media bias. i think the liberal media bias is biased in favor of action

and excitement. iss not as partisan, but it still a problem. i think it is way too easy for the latest poll numbers to come out and everybody say, "donald polls," surging in the and he went up two. it is not really in my self-interest to say this because gosh, we get to go on tv every time, every time trump goes up or down a few points in the polls. aboutstory that you do, what people are going to do to make sure people have affordable childcare, every story about americans -- yeah, i think that is the one piece of advice i would give, to not necessarily make a mountain. out of a mole help. -- not necessarily make a

mountain out of a mole hill. when you have junk food available, it is easier to go get it. i think everybody just needs to calm down. >> there is a lot of overreaction to data, or just ge tting the data wrong. there is not a lot of accountability for making up data you think you iasd an repurpose thining it some poll or analysis you did. in that sense, there is a lot of commentary that is so far removed from where voters are. voters are incredibly sensitive to the weird twists and turns of washington and it is all going to turn on a dime, based on what member of congress did or did not endorse. is this really going to matter

in the midterms? the things that don't really matter, i know there is that stuff the insider type political media needs to cover, but let's not pretend that is what actual voters care about. >> my name is aaron from the school of public affairs. i want to say thank you and i really enjoy your podcasts. in episode last night, you talked about the server monkey poll. could you share, do you think the online polling is going to grow in the next few years, and if so, what are the hurdles to get there? and especially for low income voters who do not have access to the internet. >> it is already becoming more accepted. certainly by businesses. businesses made that move a long time ago. the cost difference is very substantial.

it is probably only going to get lighter as land lines and cell extensive.me more to do a truly valid live poll, costs an enormous amount of money. businesses have already done that. i think if you have these election polls, he will have a lot more news outlets. it still seems like the gold standard. i think if you have online polls calling the election rate, i think it will be completely different next cycle. what will still be the challenge is for congressional and local and county races, it will be harder to do those polls online. i think there are still some hurdles, but it is definitely already moving. and in the u.k. and canada, they already are doing the

online polls. >> the other thing to keep in mind. if you listen to the show, it is not all online polls are teh she same. it is not nearly the same as what is going on with the nbc survey partnership. i think a.p. works for gsk, and they will contact people through more traditional methods. and if you do not have internet, they will get you a cheap laptop. nowadays, there is no perfect method. not everybody has a landline phone. barely anybody has a landline phone anymore. everybody has a cell phone. and not everybody has the internet. there is no one perfect approach.

it is important to point out that not all surveys conducted online are polls. >> hi, i'm michele and i'm canadian. [laughter] >> can you guys tell us about women? where have they gone during the course of the campaign? is clinton's gender actually in motivating factor for women, or not? do you think that after this election women will be forever lost to the conservative cause? whether still be room for a conservative female perspective on sustainability and social programming, or has the misogyny of the republican presidential candidate permanently turned away women from conservatism? >> this is the stuff of my nightmares. [laughter] >> as you know, young, female conservatives, this whole election has in some ways been a

nightmare that is continuing to unfold. i did a focus group in new hampshire. it was maybe a year ago. the primaries were still in full swing. it was a focus group of women. with the copy up, people are not always 100%. honest with you -- with the caveat, people are not always 100% honest with you. all things being equal, how many of you would say you would give hillary clinton bonus points? the older women in the focus group were more willing to say, "yes, i would like to see a female president in my lifetime." "i don't agree with her on all the issues, but it is positive." younger women were less willing to go there. they were thinking, "i will see

it in my lifetime." in the exit polls in the democratic primaries, you saw of --e sanders wenning 80% bernie sanders winning 80% of young women. i think it is just a little bit different. the battles we are fighting are a little bit different. i don't think for the most part you are going to have a ton of people in the millennial generation who will say, "yes i am a democrat forever because they put the first woman in the white house." donald trump is burning up the numbers with white men with college degrees. ite s cratering among whti women with college degrees and with just an astonishing margin. it will be difficult for the republicans to come back from. even anecdotally, i will hear

people say, donald trump is the worst thing to happen to the republican party. going to have to really quickly prove that is not us, or risk permanent damage with groups like the millennials. >> it is tough because for democrats who might be excited, there is a social pressure to say, i don't care about gender, i just will vote for the person. that is what we aspire to be for ourselves. goode are not always very reporters of our biases. have hillary clinton to relate to. and we can't separate out hillary clinton's gender from

everything else. millennials are so focused on income inequality and college affordability. maybe gender would have been the third or fourth issue. it is hard to know what some older feminists would argue. the other thing, in terms of the gender gap this time around, traditionally, historically, if the gender gap is 10 points or higher, democrats win. a lot of polls have shown trump suffering from a larger gender gap than that, a 15 point gender gap. i saw some polls that showed him with a 20 point gender gap. this was before the tightening -- if the gender gap is in the 15 to 20 point range, i think

that is going to be just impossible for trump to overcome. he would have to get 100% of those white, non-college-educated men. there is just not enough to offset all the other people he is alienating. >> hi, i'm denise. i just wanted to know if you think the information that they turned out to sway the voters in the polls is overly saturated, and that is what it is not affecting them out?it comes do you think people much? >> out? do you think people just are immune to it, or they just don't care anymore? or, is it too i guess it feels t if you are in the zone, right? certainly if you go to battleground states, people feel

overwhelmed with information, but it works. it does help move people and it moves a lot of races. sometimes you need to communicate way more than seems correct for people to hear it. you will be able to fund is tomorrow at some time, tbd. the protection of content. the bases felt like they had gotten a lot of contact from the nominees. that stuff does matter in terms of making sure people know when to vote and how to vote and getting mobile in that way. that stuff does matter at the margins. i don't know if it turns people off anymore this year than previous years. some people will feel like they have had their fill, and i can appreciate that.

i think the studies have shown it does not suppress turnout, per se. maybe some of the negative towns in the communication will have some negative affects. >> this election a side come and just focusing on 2012, there is a book called "the gamble" by two political scientists. they did one of those longitudinal studies. they did a study where every week they were tracking what people were thinking about the election and they came to the conclusion that the republicans and democrats spend hundreds of millions of dollars and they just canceled each other out. the votes were favoring obama by a couple points and that is the race we got. it was a mutually assured destruction situation. they both just distort each other. there were also reports that the obama campaign's internal polling, which was based on this , ands analytic type stuff

they showed it was a three-point race for obama all the long. think, it is easy a lot ofto cover, this stuff, the best predictor of whether you are going to vote is what party you are with. >> a lot of the independent voters are functionally not independent. they are named independent, but they functionally behave like democrats or republicans. that makes it hard for anyone mailer to really shake things up. >> if you were from another country you would probably be horrified on how much we spend on campaigning. [laughter] >> you know, the amount of time.

when you hear about what goes on. i remember talking to a couple different people about brexit, asking, is a really crazy? and they said, you know, there was this debate. i said, "what?" newss just like a campaign. there were not wall to wall ads for a year. i thought, that is very different. [laughter] >> hi, i'm britney. i'm with the school of communication. obviously we heard trump recently bash the polls and claimed they were all rigged. obviously, clinton has been leading in most of them. i listen to the audio media broadcast today which was from friday, before this fbi stuff broke.

the commentator on there had talked about some concern about pollinglics' trust in going forward. with clinton leading and trump saying, all the polls are rigged. do you have any concern about the publics' trust in polling going forward? >> sure, and there is a chance the polls can be wrong. it is is the say, "everything is fine." there is a chance that there were some hidden trump votes that were missing, and there is a chance we were sampling things wrong, but there is also a chance we were wrong through the same clinton voters. there is a chance some people think it is socially undesirable. they are certain communities where it is politically incorrect. is thing that concerns me

let's say it is november 9 and donald trump has won and the polls where showing that clinton was head. -- clinton was ahead. let's also consider the alternative, the polls showing clinton was going to win. he says the polls are rigged and then clinton wins. could you come out as donald trump and say, i told you the polls were rigged. this is all possible and that is what concerns me the most. i think people should be skeptical consumers of anything they are told. i don't mind people questioning the industry. is what concerns me if it the next step to say, democracy is not working, votes don't count, widespread voter fraud. far more than people thinking that polling is broken.

polling might be broken, but i don't think that democracy is broken. i think we might focus too much on the predictive nature of polls. we have talked about this on our show, the horserace question in a poll brings a interesting question out there. that is the stuff that i think tells us more about what is really happening. we are focused on the horse race and that is wobbly. you know, six months ago polls are not supposed to be predictive of anything. they are supposed to be illustrative. >> and of donald trump wins, we have a bigger problem than all the polls being wrong. [laughter] >> i think we have time for one

more question. >> thank you. i am a huge fan of the show and i am sure a lot of people here are, but looking beyond the election, what do you think of how the government uses polling for policymaking and for things other than the horse race? you see congressional candidates using a lot of polling, but also criticizing the acs. do you think there are opportunities for the government to improve the use of polling in administration and policy? >> this drives me nuts. republicans are the most skilled people on the hill of saying, this all needs to be gutted. in some cases, it is justified skepticism. but the idea that it is fiscally responsible to flash the budgets of programs that can actually enable us to take the huge federal budget and spend more officially, that kind of stuff

drives me crazy. as a republican, i am all in favor of efficiency and having good data is so important. i understand that people have genuine concerns about the government asking invasive questions. i understand those sorts of things, that when it becomes, slashovernment wants to funding to this program, i think it is so important that my party is going to be the party of efficient government. we are making evidence based decision and the surveys he mentioned are so important in that. your other point about members of congress using polling to decide how they vote. i think there is this tendency for us to say, why are so many politicians poll tested? what is wrong with them? they are making stuff up, or they are listening to the voters who just come and find them. they are listening to their

parents, or their kids' friends, ordonors, or staffers, people they meet on the plane home every weekend, as opposed to an actual representative sample of the people in their district. that helps a lot of members of congress and politicians around the country have a better idea of where their actual constituents are. the idea, but this is a way for people to stay better in touch with their constituents. >> great. we want to first of all think the school of communications and the school of public affairs and kpu. we want to especially thank our pollsters. here.you fo rbeinr being and thank you all for coming. we have a reception outside. by and you can ask

any follow-up questions. thank you. one week to go! thank you! c-span, our road to the white house coverage continues with donald trump campaigning in wisconsin and hillary clinton at a rally in fort lauderdale, florida. then we look at the 2016 elections and political polls. >> "washington journal," live every day with news and policy issues that impact you. wednesday morning, the history and public affairs professor at princeton university looks back at the 2000 presidential election between al gore and sh to see if there is any comparison to this election. then come the supreme court correspondent for the "new york times" on the recent studies on

whether elected judges can be independent of the politics of their supporters and of the election process itself. he will also talk about upcoming supreme court cases. then, the legal reporter for thergy wire" on recent protest over the dakota access pipeline and the possible effect on the water supply. watch "washington journal," live, beginning at 7:00 a.m. eastern wednesday morning. chicolteday, sir john chair the british-iraq inquiry. he will answer questions from lawmakers on his seven-year investigation into the u.k.; .'s decision to follow the u.s. into the iraq war. and later, a panel on the 2016 elections with political reporters. the anomic club of washington looks that the election. 35 easternve at 12:

here on c-span. charlotteobserver.com the headline is "campaigns converge in north carolina in the final week before election day." joining us on the phone is a reporter for the "charlotte observer." thanks for being with us. >> nice to be with you. >> why has north carolina become such a battleground state. >> it has really turned from a red state to a purple state. heart of that is because of the demographic changes. people are moving down from the northeast and many millennials are moving to urban areas. and the politics have become more moderate, i guess. you know, you still have an ur ban world divide. many who used to be

democrats are now republicans. donald trump is back in north carolina on thursday. their message and who are they appealing to? >> trump is appealing to the people he has appealed to and most of his rallies. he is having a rally in a rural area near charlotte, which is in the same arena where he has already had one rally this year. he is going back to his stronghold, rural north carolina. in president obama -- and president obama is going to chapel hill, a lot of young people are there, young voters. he is also going to fayetteville and charlotte. college presence

and african-american presence in charlotte. this is a big urban area, which he carried by 100,000 votes four years ago. >> what indication do you have on overall voter turnout in north carolina? >> turnout is high. about 2 million people have already voted. the people expected there would be 60% of the voters of the overall voters voting early, either by absentee ballot or in person. so, what the patterns are showing so far is the democrats are a little under the 2012 performance and republicans are little over there 2012 performance. and independents are up about 1/3 from what they were in 2012. final thing anybody is quite sure what that means. >> jim morill, based on all the analysis we have been following

with the electoral college, the general sentiment seems to be that north carolina is the state hillary clinton would like to win, and for donald trump, it is a must win state. the you agree with that? >> that has been the conventional wisdom. wins, it would be significant. although, lately there are oth er paths to victory and maybe it is not as important. but we like to think it is. both candidates have been there a lot and their vice presidential nominees have been all over north carolina. arend north carolina voters making a lot of choices, not only for president, but you have a hotly contested th governor's race and senate race. >> nobody expected the senate race to be that competitive

because they couple democrats who were more prominent turned down the race. and deborah wasser was a little-known legislature and became the nominee, but she has run a strong race. it is pretty competitive. a poll last week showed her with an two points of the republican candidate. >> finally, give us a sense of the demographics of north carolina. when the returns are coming in, what will you be looking for to determine trends? >> i think i will be looking for turnout figures in the urban areas, such as raleigh, charlotte, winston-salem, and greensboro. and also, in trump country.

those are the areas, and then the suburbs, too. the suburbs are tending to be more blue than they normally are. that would be a bad sidgn for trump. >> we will look for your reporting online at charlotteobserver.com. jim morill, thank you for being with us. >> my pleasure. thank you, steve. 8,on election day november the nation decides our next president and which party controls the house and senate. stay with c-span for coverage of the presidential race, including campaign stops with hillary clinton, donald trump, and their surrogates. and follow house and senate races. c-span, where history unfolds daily. >> with one week before election day, donald trump campaigned in

wisconsin. he talked about his domestic and foreign policy agenda. this is a 35 minute portion of that rally. donald trump: this is the biggest scandal since watergate. and now it has been reported. [cheers and applause] rep. young: and --

donald trump: and somehow, that is not going to be her biggest problem. who sent outs the one the illegal private e-mails. hillary is the one who engaged in a corrupt scandal at the state department. hillary is the one who endangered national security by sending classified information on a secure line. hillary is the one who lied so many times to congress and to the fbi. 39 times to the fbi.

each lie, i mean, every time she sent an e-mail. she said, "sorry, i don't recall." that that she said was also a lie and i am not even including that. hillary is the one who made 13 phones disappear, some with a hammer. destroyedlary who 33,000 e-mails after receiving the subpoena from the united states government. after. and she is also the one, and this just came up recently. it would've been the biggest story in the world.

she is a terrible person. it was a terrible breach of evidence. let's talk about it. and frankly, she should resign. she should retire and she should now resign. out my fellow .lectorates here can you believe that? being a believer in so many , she dodged the

questions. and nobody talks about that. but we know the answers. so, get out and vote on november 8. this is your one chance to change. i don't think you have another chance. we have elections coming up and i don't think he will have another chance. elected, ando be we were in some constitutional , she lied.

she is under investigation for many things, probably concluding in a very large scale criminal trial. can you believe this? i tell you what, if he were for me, i would fire him so bad. john, you are fired.

he said, we don't like to say bad things when you work for people. he said, hillary has badisms. bernie sanders said she had bad judgment. it is similar, if you think about it. one of the top department of justice officials, and the attorney general, is a close associate. benghazi.bout she described him as the man who kept him out of jail.

has our country ever had a situation like this? it is a good time to make an important public service announcement. a lot of things have happened over the last year. this is a message for any voter, and you are having a bad case of buyer's remorse, in other words, you , there change your vote are many states where you can change your early ballot, if you think you have made a mistake. [cheers and applause] if you are in michigan or pennsylvania or

wisconsin, you can change your vote to donald trump will make america great again. [cheers and applause] donald trump: she will never make america great. the clintons are the sordid past. we are the bright future. i have to say we have done a pretty good job. my contract with the american voter begins with a plan to restore honesty and accountability to our government. entire corrupt washington establishment to heed the words, we are all here. on november 8, we are going to washington dc and

to -- going [indistinguishable] donald trump: here i go and i have said this before. the first time i heard this i said, give me a break, i hate it. then, i went to a rally with 18,000 people and i said it, and they went totally crazy. and then i said it again and again. and now, i love to say it.

i have a plan to bring back our jobs. now, 70 million american men and women and children live in poverty, or near the brink of poverty. it is so true. can you believe it? 43% of african-american school-age children live in poverty. 32% of hispanic school-age children live in poverty. country.ur this is unacceptable in america. i will fix it. i will fix it. i will fix it. i have been saying a lot as speaking very openly about the inner cities and saying to the african-american community, the

hispanic community, i have been saying, what do you have to lose? it is such a disaster. what do you have to lose? thank you. we are going to fix it. we're going to stop the crime. the crime is unbelievable. we are going to bring back your jobs. what do you have to lose? we are going to fix it. as president, i will go into the poorest communities and write a national plan for revitalization. we will have generations of success. generations of success. america has lost 1/3 of its manufacturing jobs since bill and hillary's nafta. 1/3 of your jobs. we have a highway, a one-way highway into mexico. they get the jobs, the plants, the money. we get the unemployment and the drugs. not a good deal. that is going to be changed around. [cheers and applause]

we are going to build the wall, don't worry about it. that is not even close. listen to this. i have been saying for two weeks. i just got this, i have been saying that is a typo. that is some kind of an error. it cannot be possible. america has lost 70,000 factories. i thought they meant 700. i said, this must be a mistake here. maybe 7000. america has lost 70,000 factories because of politicians that don't know what they are doing or they are controlled by special interests. since china entered the world trade organization, another bill and hillary disaster. we are living through the greatest jobs theft in the

history of the world. this is what is happening to our country. we are being treated like we are stupid people. we have leaders who do not know what they are doing. they do not have a clue. it is the single greatest jobs theft in the history of the world. that is what happened. technology laid off 400 workers right here. honeywell laid off 974 workers making printed circuit boards. their jobs when to china. this is a federal problem. in so and these people many places. it is very hard. because we do not fight. meaning, you make your product, you want to come back, it is not going to be easy.

you will pay a fat tax on that . [cheers and applause] donald trump: ttm technology laid off 166 workers. most of them went to mexico and other places. a lot of jobs going to china. a lot of the jobs are going to japan. a lot of the jobs are going to south korea. an unbelievable number of jobs and plants and factories and everything else are going to mexico. a donald trump administration will stop the jobs from leaving america, and we will stop the jobs from leaving wisconsin. we will work with their governor, who is a great governor. [cheers and applause] donald trump: we will stop it. we are going to stop it. donald trump: that is what it is. theft, that is what it is.

the theft of american prosperity will come to a very rapid and. from now on, it is going to be america first. [cheers and applause] [crowd chanting "usa'] donald trump: a donald trump administration will renegotiate nafta. we will stand up to foreign policy. the unfairnd up to subsidy activity that is going on, that makes it impossible for our businesses to compete. they will be competing very soon. we will also immediately stop the job killing transpacific partnership. that has been a disaster. [cheers and applause] donald trump: as part of our

plan to bring back jobs, we are going to lower taxes on american businesses from 35% to 15%. we are the highest taxed nation in the world. we will become a rich nation again. to be a rich nation, we must also be a safe nation. in chicago, 3664 people have been shot since january 1 of this year. can you believe that? that is worse than the places you read about and see in the middle east. these are war zones. we have places that are more dangerous. in milwaukee, homicides have risen to the highest level in more than 20 years. nationwide, murders have experienced their largest single year increase in 45 years. you do not hear that from the dishonest media.

[boos] donald trump: better not tell you that. they want to protect certain people like hillary. it is getting hard to protect her, fellas. it is getting very hard to protect her. very hard to protect her. she is out of control. trump administration will work with federal and local law enforcement to end this crime wave. every child in america has the right to grow up in safety and peace. [cheers and applause] donald trump: we will also keep you safe from terrorism. hillary clinton wants a 550% increase in syrian refugees flowing into our country. [boos] donald trump: can you believe that? her plan would mean generations of terrorism and extremism

spreading into your schools and throughout america. when i am elected president, we will suspend the syrian refugee problem. [cheers and applause] we will keep radical islamic terrorists the hell out of our country. [cheers and applause] donald trump: a trump administration will also secure and defend the borders of the united states. as i said and as you know, we are not playing games. yes, we will build the wall. [cheers and applause] [crowd chanting "build the wall "]

donald trump: the fact that it is 110 degrees in this room, i don't care. think of it as a sauna. this room was not designed for this many people. think of it as a sauna. we get this for nothing. we have received the first ever endorsement from our ice and border patrol. 16,500 great, amazing people. they tell us the border crisis is the worst it has ever been. you have been reading about it. it is a national emergency. it is the worst it has ever been.

i'm going to give you some stats. this is about as bad as it gets. hillary has pushed, open those borders. there goes your country. it would mean the destruction of the united states in a true sense. the immigration officers warned that hillary's plan is "the most radical immigration the united statesin history" and it would lead to the "loss of thousands of lives." would allowton thousands of the most dangerous people to enter our country. those countries don't want to take back murderers, druglords, gang members. they say no. let me just tell you something, they would bring them to their

country, and their country would say no. bring them back to the united states. let me tell you, that will not happen this year. it will not happen for four yea rs, or eight years. it will not happen once. [cheers and applause] donald trump: on hillary's watch, the younger was killed named casey chadwick. the killer who had already been convicted for shooting a girl in the head previously, who people were begging to incarcerate or send out of our country should have been sent home. instead he was set free. he stuffed her body in a closet. he stabbed her in the face and in the neck 15 different times.

people were begging that he be sent out. we are going to make america safe again. believe me. that is one of many. that is one of many. so many different stories. hillary also strongly supports sanctuary cities, like in san francisco, where the incredible young woman was killed in her f time's arms by a five deported illegal immigrant. a trump administration will cancel all federal funding to sanctuary cities. [cheers and applause] donald trump: we will do port all illegal -- we will b deport all illegal aliens, stop the drugs from bring into

our communities and we will end this nightmare of violence like we have never seen before. we will also appeal the obama clinton defense sequester and rebuild our badly depleted military. we have no choice. that includes great support for fort mccoy. [cheers and applause] donald trump: i am honored to have the endorsement of more than 200 top admirals and generals, and 22 medal of honor recipients. it's a great group. whether it is law enforcement, the military, the veterans. we are going to take care of our veterans, folks. [cheers and applause] our new foreign policy will put america first. hillary brought disaster to iraq, which was a total disaster. to iraq, syria, libya.

she empowered iran. she and unleashed isis by the way, her and president obama, the campaigner. should focus instead of campaigning for hillary clinton, where he is probably now having a conflict in campaigning for her, focus on getting rid of isis, focus on getting jobs back to our country, focus on a lot of other things. hillary wants to start a shooting war in syria. a conflict that could for all we know, trigger world war iii. for what? hillary and her failed establishment have spent $6 trillion on wars in the middle east that never end and we nevr win. they never end and we never

win. now, the middle east is in worse shape than ever before. we could have built our country twice. we could have rebuilt the united states with $6 trillion. we could have rebuilt it twice. they have dragged us into foreign wars that have made us less safe. they have left our borders wide open at home and they have shipped our jobs as well to other countries. , it isamericans, i say now time, finally, for leadership, for change. [cheers and applause] donald trump: think about all we can accomplish in the first 100 days. we are going to have the biggest tax cut since ronald reagan.

and she is going to raise your taxes substantially. remember. we are going to eliminate every unnecessary job killing regulation. we will cancel every illegal obama executive order. [cheers and applause] donald trump: there are plenty of them. there are plenty of them. we will rebuild our military and we will take care of our great, great veterans. they have been treated terribly. our veterans have been treated terribly. [crowd chanting "trump"]

donald trump: we going to provide school choice and put an end to common core. we will support the great men and women of law enforcement. you know this, right? the nra endorsed me. they endorsed me. hours willg to save

-- second amendment which is totally undersea. ege.nder si we will uphold and defend it the national -- the constitution of the united states. hillary clinton wants us to believe nothing can change and once our lives to revolve around washington, d.c. i am asking you to dream big. to believe in a movement powered the love ofe and by this great country.

i am tired of politicians telling americans to do for their dreams to another day when they really mean another decade. of waiting.red the moment is now. there has never been a movement this big. advantage of it on november 8. we're going to turn things around. start believing in each other and in our country.