i am tired of politicians telling americans to do for their dreams to another day when they really mean another decade. of waiting.red the moment is now. there has never been a movement this big. advantage of it on november 8. we're going to turn things around. start believing in each other and in our country.

there is no challenge to great and no dream out of our reach. there is no dream outside of our reach. do not lead anyone tell you cannot be done. the future belongs with the dreamers. hillary clinton has been there for 30 years. she has accomplished nothing. she is the candidate of yesterday. we are the movement of the future. we are asking for the votes of republicans, democrats, independents, and first-time voters of which there are many.

we're americans who believe truth and justice not money and should rule. i have been on the other side in die understand -- i have been on the other side and i understand the other side, perhaps better than anybody else. outsideri become an quickly. [chuckling] shouldmp: any citizen believe government should serve the people not the donors. to unleash the tremendous potential of every american community and family who hope and pray and yarn for a

much better future and it will happen. with your vote, we're just -- listen to this -- listen to this after all of this time, just one week. one week. we started on june 16. june 16. [crowd chanting] this movement started on june 16 last year. now we are one week away from

the change. don't worry about me. we have to do it. make americawill wealthy again. strong make america again. we will make america safe again. america greenake again. thank you everybody. thank you. ♪

♪ >> c-span's road to the white house coverage continues wednesday with president obama hillary clinton. live coverage at 2:00 p.m. eastern on c-span. later, a campaign in orlando, florida. p.m.is live at 4:00 eastern also here on c-span. day, november 8, the nation decides our next president and which house controls our house and senate. .tay with c-span follow key house and senate races. unfoldswhere history daily.

>> now, hillary clinton speaks lauderdale,n fort florida. she was joined by john lewis and senate candidate had tricked murphy. this is 35 minutes. patrick murphy. this is 35 minutes. >> hello everybody. thank you for being so patient. let me just say a word or two. pleased to be and standing here. some of you may be young enough or old enough to remember during the early days of the movement i lead a group of people across

the bridge and selma, alabama. beaten and left bloody and unconscious. almost died on the bridge for the right to vote. i come before you tonight to say the vote is precious. it is almost sacred. [cheers and applause] lewis: it ise almost sacred. it is the most powerful nonviolent tool we have in a democratic society, and we must use it like we never have before. we must get out and vote like we never, ever voted before. if we want to know what is in the food we eat, what is in the air we breathe, what is in the water we drink, we must vote. vote. don't let anyone keep you at home. we've got to go to the polls. there are people in our society that want to take us back.

we don't want to go back. we have come too far. we have made too much progress to go back. we want to go forward and create one america. it doesn't matter if we are black or white, latino, asian american, native american, straight or gay. we are one people, one family, one house. but let's stay together. look, i want you to play with me tonight. you know why am here. i am here to support my friend, patrick murphy, for the united states senate, but i'm also here to support her. [cheers and applause] lewis: a wonderful friend.

no one else is better prepared to be president of the united states of america than hillary clinton. a week from tonight, i hope we will be saying madam president. thank you, madam president. the time is now, so let's do it, ok? thank you very much. >> hillary! hillary! hillary! [crowd chanting] >> ladies and gentlemen and gentlemen, please welcome congressman patrick murphy. [cheers and applause] >> all right.

all right. all right, fort lauderdale, how y'all doing? >> beat rubio! beat rubio! [crowd chanting] on, your turn. all right, everybody. i can tell you are warmed up. i am humbled to be here to help introduce our next president, hillary clinton, who, by the way, is the most qualified person we have ever had for the job. and you compare that, of course, to the most unqualified person we have ever had for the job. look, i think everyone here knows that early voting has already begun, and it is critical that florida make sure that your voice is heard, so get out there and vote early. look, i announced my campaign to

be florida's next u.s. senator because i wanted to show up to work for each and every one of you. part of that means defending a woman's right to choose. that means protecting social security and medicare for our seniors. that means fighting to protect our environment from the damage of climate change. and working to reduce the gun violence that is plaguing so many of our cities. that also means creating an economy that will work for everybody. and with the future of our economy on the line, who are republicans in florida trying to elect? marco rubio and donald trump? as the president said, come on, man. we are not going to strengthen

our economy with donald trump's racist bullying. we are not going to lift families out of poverty with donald trump's demonizing immigrants and muslims, and we are certainly not going to create an economy that works for everybody with donald trump's misogynistic attacks. where does senator rubio stand? when donald trump goes low, marco rubio is right there with him. marco rubio claims he is going to stand up to a president donald trump. really? how exactly is he going to do that if he cannot stand up to donald trump as a candidate? donald trump boasts about sexual assault. marco rubio looks the other way.

donald trump praises dictators, encourages russian cyber attacks. marco rubio stands right by him. more than 160 republicans had the courage to stand up to donald trump's racist and bigoted campaign, but not marco rubio. senator rubio likes to use the excuse that he is supporting donald trump because he disagrees with hillary clinton on everything. well of course he does. secretary clinton shows up for work every day. you know, secretary clinton has spent decades fighting for equal rights, making sure that women have equal pay for equal work. guess what marco rubio said about equal pay for equal work. his quote was that it is a waste of time.

"a waste of time," really? look, marco rubio can stay low with donald trump, but i'm with her. ] heers and applause rep. murphy: hillary clinton knows that our economy works best when it works for everybody, that we are always stronger together, and i got into public service in the first place because i was tired of the dysfunction, the finger-pointing, the name-calling, and i'm willing to work with anybody if it means solving a problem, and that same spirit has defined secretary clinton's entire career. she will be a leader that helps unite republicans and democrats. she will help strengthen our economy, help reduce the barriers to opportunity, from raising minimum wage to investing more in education, reducing the barriers to student loan debt, and finally, equal pay for equal work. hillary clinton knows what needs

to be done and she knows exactly how to get it done. you know i look forward to being , there with her every single step of the way in the u.s. senate. you know marco rubio likes to , say we have to make sure that donald trump wins this election. no, we don't. no we don't. you know what we have to do? we have to vote. early voting has already started here in fort lauderdale and runs until november 6, so please vote early. make sure your voice is heard. vote for the country you want to leave for your kids and your grandkids. vote for leaders like hillary clinton who understand what is at stake. vote to show career politicians like marco rubio who refuse to stand with floridians that the u.s. senate is actually a place to get things done. so, if you want to help me

defeat marco rubio go to murphyforflorida.com and join us. [cheers and applause] rep. murphy: let's work as hard as it takes. let's knock on every door, stuff every envelope, make every phone call. if we show up, we are going to win this election, and when we do, my promise to each and every one of you is i will be the hardest working senator this state has ever had alongside , hillarypresident clinton. thank you very much. thank you. "murphy"] >> ladies and gentlemen, please welcome to the stage congressman hastings.

[cheers and applause] congressman hastings: thank you all, ladies and gentlemen. in 2008, we made history in florida by electing the first african-american president. [cheers and applause] rep. hastings: we did it again in 2012, and we are ready to do it again by electing the first woman president of the united states. i want to get something straight here before i ask the secretary to come on out here. don john trump is a con artist.

he asked african-americans, "what do you have to lose?" if you see donald trump, tell him, "among the things that i would lose would be my dignity. the other thing that african-americans and all of us would lose would the our souls. equally important and perhaps most important for african-americans, whites, protestants, jews, and everybody, if we voted for donald trump, we would have lost our minds." [cheers and applause]

rep. hastings: thank you, broward county, and those that are here with us. it has been a long night, but it has not been as long as the night secretary clinton has had and the day, but i have news for you -- come november 9, we will have a sunshiny vision for america. [cheers and applause] rep. hastings: we can elect someone who is passionate, competent, who understands the concerns of those who are disabled, who believes we should have immigration reform, someone who believes in equal pay for women, whok for believes and has championed the rights of children and universal health care and three k for -- pre-k for children. she believes in paid family leave, low and moderate income housing, infrastructure development that is desperately

needed, the protection of social security and medicaid and medicare, and believe me, it is not only the supreme court, it is the entire federal judiciary that is at stake, and we need hillary clinton to bring it back to us. [cheers and applause] rep. hastings: additionally, don't you want someone that will build on the legacy of barack obama? [cheers and applause] rep. hastings: so now then, i ask you -- this lady that i have known for a very long time -- she has been a lawyer, a law professor, the first lady of arkansas, and the first lady of the united states, a united states senator, traveled to 112 countries. she will be able to know the leaders of other countries. donald trump would have to introduce himself to the leaders of other countries. please help me welcome the next

president of the united states, hillary rodham clinton. [applause] ♪

secretary clinton: hello, fort lauderdale. wow! thank you. thank you. thank you also much. thank you for being out here on this beautiful night. it is great to be back with all of you. on sunday, i had the great privilege of speaking to the congregation at new mount olive

baptist church, and i could not leave town without stopping at betty's for some soul food, and it's wonderful to be here with so many of my friends and people i admire. i want to thank congressman hastings, who just really came revved everybody up. i want to thank the one, the only congressman john lewis, an icon of the civil rights movement. my friend congresswoman debbie wasserman schultz, congressman ted deutch, and i have to tell you, i am really excited and very hopeful that you will send patrick murphy to the united states senate. [cheers and applause]

clinton: so let me thank all the elected officials who are here because this is a big deal. there are only now seven days left in the most important election of our lifetime. we cannot take anything, anybody, anywhere for granted. are you ready to work hard and win this election? [cheers and applause] well, that is exactly the right answer because we need to do everything we possibly can between now and the time the polls close one week from tonight because any issue you care about, anything is at stake. i get sometimes a little overwhelmed by the fact that i love this country. i think we already are great. now, i think we could be greater, and, you know, i am

sick and tired of the negative, dark, divisive, dangerous vision and behavior of people who support donald trump. [cheers and applause] chanting] mrs. clinton: it is time for us to say, "no, we are not going backwards. we are going forward into a brighter future. so how do we do that? for the next seven days, we focus on what is important, do not get distracted or diverted, focus on the kind of country and world we want to help create. that is what i've done. i have stayed focused on one thing -- one you. your lives. your family. the problems that keep you up at night, and that is what i'm doing now because i know the day

after the election, that is what really counts. [cheers and applause] mrs. clinton: ask yourself what kind of president and commander-in-chief do we need to get the economy working for everyone, not just those at the top? who can keep us safe and lead the world with intelligence and steadiness and strength? who can begin to heal the divides that have been exacerbated between us and bring americans together again? well, i'll tell you what -- donald trump has proven himself to be temperamentally unfit and unqualified to be president of the united states. [cheers and applause] mrs. clinton: and you know, i

don't say that about everybody. i have known a lot of people who ran for president on both sides, republicans and democrats. i disagreed with them, don't get me wrong, but i never thought they were unfit to serve. donald trump is different. he has proven himself unfit, and what he is doing with his conspiracy theories, with his insulting, with his demeaning and degrading millions of americans proves he should not be allowed anywhere near the white house. [cheers and applause] mrs. clinton: you know, on the one hand, you've got to feel kind of sorry about the kind of campaign he is running, don't you? i mean, he starts out by insulting immigrants. he moves on to insult all latinos, insults african-americans, insults

muslims, insults people with disabilities, insults p.o.w.'s, and then insults women. i mean, really. by the time you add up all the people he has insulted, that's more than half the population of the united states. but here is the good news -- the good news is there is another vision for america that is on the ballot. instead of dark and divisive, it is hopeful and inclusive. it is bighearted, not small minded. it is about lifting people up, not tearing each other down. it is a vision that says -- and i believe this with all my heart -- we are stronger together. there is nothing we cannot do if

we make up our minds to do it, and we believe in an america that is great because it is good. we believe in an america where women are respected. where veterans are honored, where parents are supported, where workers are paid fairly. we believe in second chances, where people who have served their debt to society get a real chance to rebuild their lives. where we can and the school-to-prison pipeline and build a cradle-to-college pipeline and stead. we believe in an america that will lead the world in the fight against climate change. [cheers and applause]

mrs. clinton: and create millions of clean energy jobs. we believe in an america where marriage is a right, and discrimination is wrong. we believe in an america that leads in the world and lives up to our values. an america where women finally get eight will pay for the work we do. we believe in an america where we will raise the national minimum wage so no one is and still intime poverty. we believe an animal america where we will defeat terrorist we will work with our allies in order to put together the coalition that can do that.

we believe in a difference between our allies and adversaries. we believe in an america where we are finally going to do something about the violence of gun epidemic that kills 33,000 people a year. we believe in an america where every young person can afford to go to college and not go into debt. we believe in an america where we are going to help people who already have student debt pay it faster, more cheaply saving money. we believe in an america where we are going to provide quality health care to every person and that includes bringing down the cost of prescription drugs and guaranteeing the security of medicare.

we believe in america where social security is based on promise. we will not privatize it. we will not turn it over to wall street like my opponent wants to do. we believe in an america where people making less than $250,000 should not have an increase in their federal income taxes, but the wealthy should pay their fair share. [cheers and applause] mrs. clinton: we believe in an america where we grow the economy from the middle out in the bottom up, not the discredited trickle-down economics that donald trump has been advocating for -- and you by the way, we believe in an america where somebody claims he is worth $10 billion, he ought to pay the american income taxes.

hey, did any of you see the debate? i spent four and a half hours standing next to donald trump, which proves conclusively i have the stamina to do this job, right? [cheers and applause] but one of the things i said was, you know, when i learned in and study did and realized what it meant, it just sort of stunned me, i'm standing next to a guy who flies around in a big jet, lies around in a helicopter, has his name on those. one half of the working undocumented immigrants in america pay more in income tax than he does. we believe in an america where we will finally have comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship. we believe in an america where women are treated with respect,

and i was in pascoe county earlier today talking about what is at stake in this election. formerntroduced to a miss universe pageant winter. -- pageant winner. who donald trump has insulted and denigrated, and, really, if you are miss universe, you look pretty good, right? but donald trump called her ms. piggy, insulted her heritage, called her ms. housekeeping because she is a latina. well, i was proud of her. she does not let such a small person get her down. [cheers and applause] -- mr. trump: mrs. clinton: but i got to say,

when i listened to what he said and how he talked about women and what he has bragged about doing to women, i want all the girls in america to know -- you are valuable. you should feel good about yourself. do not let somebody like this bully tell you otherwise. and i want to say to all the young boys, show respect because that shows you are a real man and he will stand up for what is right. so, you know, literally, i mean this is so much fun, but it's really late and i could he here all night talking about what is at stake in this election, but i think you already know because you have been out here and willing to be here with me because we know that we've got to turn out the vote. and what that means is that every one of you who can should vote early. how many of you have all ready voted? [applause]

mrs. clinton: well, that does not surprise me because 4 million people in florida have already voted. but there are millions more. but we have got to get out and vote. here is what i hope you will do. talk to your friends, your family, your coworkers. it's pretty easy to vote early in florida. there are lots of different places in this county and every other neighboring county for you to go to, and it is important to tell people who got ballot in the mail, fill them out and send them in. because we need everybody to step up. remember, there is no state where it is more important. you know what happened in 2000, right? i was with al gore in miami, and he can tell you better than

everyone, every vote counts, especially here in broward county. and, you know, this is not complicated. if people who support our positive, inclusive, unified vision vote, we win. and we will make history on november 8. so, if you have already voted come work with us. make some of the calls. thousands,ing on hundreds of thousands of doors to encourage everyone to vote. right near here at the african-american research library but there are dozens of sites. and all sites are open from 7:00 a.m.-7:00 p.m. every day until

november 6. if you did not know where to vote, you can find out the nearest voting location to where you live. i want you to do me another favor, if you know anybody who says they are thinking of voting for donald trump, i want you to stage an intervention. [applause] mrs. mr. trump: -- clinton: i want you to talk to this person because unless they are a billionaire who avoided paying taxes for 20 years and lost a billion dollars running casinos, they do not have anything to gain from donald trump. in fact, they do have so much to lose. every single issue we care about may not be actually listed on the ballot but make no mistake it is on there. talk to your friend or coworker

and say, you know, really, you may be angry about something that anger is not a plan. do not be used. do not be exploited. stand up for what we can do together because that is what this election comes down to. it is about our future. about who we are as a country. and i promise you this, if you give me the great honor of serving as your president, i will wake up every day and that white house trying to figure out what i can do to help you and you and you get ahead. [cheers and applause] mrs. clinton: i really believe america's best days are still ahead of it.

do not buy into that dark theme. if we say no, we are rejecting that. we are not going back. we're going to move with confidence into the future forward into the kind of potential that makes it possible for every single person to live up to his or her god-given potential. then we are going to build the future we want to gather and prove once and for all that love trumps hate. thank you all. [cheers and applause] ♪ ♪

♪

announcer: coming up on c-span, a look at the 2016 elections and political polls. after that, donald trump in wisconsin and hillary clinton fort lauderdale, florida. >> c-span's washington journal, live every day with news and policy issues that impact you. wednesday morning, history and public affairs professor at princeton university looks back at the 2000 presidential election between al gore and george w. bush to see if there is any comparison to this year's

election. adam liptak, supreme court correspondent for the new york times on whether judges can be independent of the politics of their supporters and of the election process itself. he will also talk about upcoming appointments. then, discussion on the standing rock tribe over the dakota access pipeline and the possible effect on their water pipeline. watch c-span's "washington 7:00 a.m. eastern on wednesday morning. >> this is the headline, campaigns converge on north carolina in the final week before election day. joining us is jim morrill, a reporter for the charlotte observer. they queue for joining us. why has north carolina become such a battleground state? jim: it has turned from a red

state to a purple state and part of that is due to demographic changes. people moving down from the northeast and millennials moving to the urban areas of charlotte, raleigh,. politics have become more , you still have an urban-world divide. beublicans who used to democrats. a lot of them are in rural areas. host: with the president making two bits to the state this week, donald trump is back in my current line. what is the message and who are they appealing to? jim: i think donald trump are the people hel to appeal to most of his life. people in a rural area near charlotte near the arena where he already had one rally.

he is going back to his stronghold, rural north carolina. president obama is going to chapel hill, in the heart of the triangle, a college town. a lot of young people there. young voters. he is also going to fayetteville and charlotte. also have some college presence, a military presence, and a large african-american presence in charlotte. area with ag urban lot at stake. he carried about 100,000 votes four years ago. what do you think about overall turnout in north carolina? jim: turnout is high. about 10 million people of already voted. 60% of theed about voters of the overall voters would vote early by absentee

ballot or by in-person early voting. what the patterns are showing so far as democrats are a little under. their 20 12 performance and republicans are little bit over there 2012 appointments. unaffiliated voters are up about one third from what they were in 2012. so i'm not quite sure what anybody thinks that means. the: with regard to electoral college, the general sentiment seems to be north carolina is a state hillary clinton would very much like to win. for donald trump, it is a must-went state. jim: that has been the conventional wisdom. ofclinton wins it is a flip electoral votes. 15 she would've gotten, 15 he would not of god. which could be significant. although lately you are hearing otherwise. as important.t

we like to think it is and he has certainly been here a lot. both candidates. and vice president of nominees. all north carolina. a busy year or all of us. host: north carolina making a news. you have a senate race becoming even more competitive. jim: nobody expected it to be that competitive because democrats, a couple democrats who were more prominent turned ross,he race and deborah who was a little-no legislator from raleigh become a nominee. she has run a strong race and it is 30 competitive. a little polls show it within a margin of error. a poll last week showed her within two points of the republican. have a very competitive

gubernatorial race. host: give us a sense of demographics were north carolina. when the returns are coming in, what we look for in determining trends on the residential level? jim: i will be looking forward turnout figures in the urban raleigh, charlotte, winston-salem area, greensboro. also the world returns to see what the turnout is in those areas. trump country will stop i think those are the areas. these suburbs, too. these suburbs are tending to be more blue than they normally are. that would be a bad sign for trump. suburbs would be an area to watch. host: we will look for you reporting online at charlotte observer.com. for theill, a reporter charlotte observer.

announcer: c-span's road to the white house coverage continues wednesday with president obama campaigning for hillary clinton in chapel hill, as carolina. he is joined by singers james taylor at the university of north carolina. later, donald trump pulls a campaign rally in orlando, florida. that is five at 4:00 p.m. eastern, also here on c-span. >> after he came up with this idea -- first of all i did research information because -- and this is definitely the case with a lot of pieces done for the repetition. it is a complicated issue. it is not like in white. it is so multifaceted i had to research to get a big knowledge of what i wanted to talk about in this phase. obviously, there was a lot. it is so complicated that i cannot talk about all of it in 5-7 minutes i had to decide what is going to talk about.

>> i thought it would be nice to have kind of a focal point to focus on. so i talked to my parents before started shooting. i researched this topic extensively. i visited my dad's pharmacy and kind of talked to the pharmacist 's. i went to my mom's work. i even went to the library. to find morearched like facts and data and statistics about employment of people with developmental disabilities to see really what was going on. information that i got over the internet came from government-founded website so that is how i knew that most of the information that i was getting was legitimate. >> this year's name? your message to washington, d.c. tell us, what is the most important issue for the new

president and congress to address in 2017. open to all middle school and highs will grade 6-12. $100,000 in cash prizes. students can work alone or in groups of up to three. documentary including some c-span programming. the prizes will be awarded and shared between 150 students and 53 teachers. $5,000 willize of go to the student or team with the best overall entry. mark your calendars and help us spread the word to student filmmakers. for more information, go to our website studentcam.org. >> now, a conversation with andsters margie omero kristen soltis. it is just over one hour.

>> good evening everyone. i am the dean of the school of communication. i want to welcome you here tonight. i want to welcome c-span2, students, faculty, invited guests. event cohosting tonight's as part of an ongoing effort related to the 2016 election including a joint class that went to new hampshire. 40 students for five days to cover the primary in february. a forum and april featuring dianne feinstein. party a few watch

weeks ago. i also want to thank our co-sponsors. college dems, college republicans. i also want to acknowledge end recognize a person who is truly the inspiration of much of what we do and certainly this kind of event, dotty lynch. dottie was an executive in residence at the school of communication and the inaugural political director of our communications program and jointly administered master programs between the school of communications in the school of public affairs. publicwas a leading analysis who -- analyst who desk athe election's cbs news. anyone who dottie knew she would be delighted to have two influential women here tonight to talk to about the election.

they are accomplished experts and rising stars in the field in which she was a pioneer. the plan for the evening is pretty simple. it will start with questions posed by our moderators. o'rourke and molly martin. we will have time for q&a with all of you so think of your questions and be ready to test these experts. i want to also now introduce my colleague and friend. [applause] >> good evening. welcome to everybody here. i especially want to welcome our guest speakers who are joining us on such in important topic at such an important time of year. as dean of the public affairs, i would like to say it is always a

have something as exciting as this. i am particularly grateful for the school of public affairs executive in residence and school of communications executive in residence for their work organizing the event tonight. now, as you know, american university is no stranger to politics. aree many people uncomfortable talking about politics, that is actually our comfort zone. that is what we like to talk about and many students come precisely because they like it to. so we love elections at american university. of course, this particular election season has pushed the boundaries of politics in so many ways. democracy,, in a boating is the most important action citizens can take.

's topic, anight quick poll. how many of you are about to vote in a presidential election for the first time? fabulous. first timers.f i see a few more seasoned members in the audience as well. we are going to count that you have already done your duty. the word democracy means power to the people. i hope they those of you her first-timers will exercise your power and vote next week. many thanks to those of you have already voted early or absentee. i am pleased to have the responsibility to introduce our speakers tonight. kristen soltis anderson and margie o'mara our cohost of the

they would chair bipartisan thoughts on pulling, our country's political system, and voter behavior. both women are very accomplished, but tonight i will only be able to touch on a few of the impressive achievements. she is the author of the book "the selfie vote." she is the cofounder of echelon insights and a columnist for the "washington examiner." andwas recently a fellow served as vice president of the winston group, a republican polling firm in d.c. she was named by "time" magazine as one of the 30 under 30 four changing the world. she is the executive vice president for public affairs. a democratic strategy firm. she has more than 20 years of experience with elections, politics, and policy.

she founded momentum analysis, which is a democratic polling firm serving nonprofits, advocacy groups, and political candidates. politico named her one of their politico's to watch. we have two people that have been on the radar for their remarkable contributions. both of us speakers are seasoned media commentators regularly interviewed by major news outlets, including "the washington post an" and "new yok times." no doubt they are in high demand this week and i thank you both for being here during such a busy time. please welcome kristen soltis anderson and margie omero. >> we are so excited to have

this dynamic duo here. they were up early this morning. and here they are tonight. this is a treat for us and we really appreciate them being here. i want to start by asking you all, we have had two or three october surprises. i don't know if we will have a november surprise, but tell us, if you could, what we will see over the last week, in terms of the polls. where they tightening before this latest incident? polls have seen a pretty significant swing over the last couple weeks. you had the mbc and wall street journal poll showing a lead for hillary clinton. the abc-washington post tracking poll showed a 12 point margin for hillary clinton over donald trump. and of course today, the abc poll made news because they are showing trump up by one.

of question is, how much that is real? many people are making serious decisions to change their voting behavior? and how much of this is actual wenge in the sample of who are talking to? how much of it is changes, and who decides to pick up the phone on a given day. that is an interesting question we don't have the answer to. on the state level, you saw a shrinking of clinton's lead over the last week or so, but not as dramatic as you can see on abc polls. somewhat more a stable rate in terms of places where you may not have a constant dilution of trump and clinton as on the airways but you're much more swayed by whatever's happened in in the

-- whatever is happening in the news cycle at that moment. >> it also seems like there is tightening before the letter came out. the two polls that have really examined the post-comey letter sunday, andturday, friday night. there is a morning political poll and then survey monkey poll and try to look at their reaction to the letter on friday and they came to the same conclusion that it's not making a difference. voters are viewing it through the lens of their own partisan leaning and there is no convincing now. there is no october or november surprise that can really move people. especially since, ultimately, these surprises are reinforcing things we already know about the candidates. this new comey issue is really a continuation of the e-mail and private server story we have been hearing about for a long time. whatever happens with with trump is a continuation of crazy truck -- crazy trump.

it's just another continuation of what we are ready know about him. so, people are not really saying, that is the final straw, and now i am changing to the other candidate. that's where you get the sense that things are baked in. is the last thing to look at , what are we seeing in terms of early voting, and votes that have been baked in? if you you have some states where people - >> what can you tell from early voting? >> it seems like the democratic advantage in a lot of states like florida, north carolina, where people are saying there is an advantage, but there's others too. on the other hand, you see new news today about how the math might be changing where you have democrats now putting money in states that were considered put away, like colorado, was

wisconsin, and michigan. those were states that were seen as states for hillary clinton. does that mean democrats are panicking? does that mean the race is tightening? does it mean they have the resources to spend? we don't know. that is part of what the spin game is. that is another way to look at and be able to gauge, what are the candidates seeing internally? they are reacting to something internally. just like you see trump going to wisconsin. there is clearly something internally going on there. >> there has been so much focus on different groups in this election, either turn of groups for either side, or persuadable audiences. i would like to know from each of you, what groups are you looking at better most interesting?

so, a week from tonight when you are looking at the exit polls and you want to understand how the race is coming together, what groups will you be looking at? >> for me, every group is important. you cannot get there without getting votes from every group. but two groups that are important are latinos and white noncollege educated voters. so, if you look at latinos, in every election cycle, they have become a larger share of the electorate, but a decreasing share of them vote republicans. george w. bush got 44%. romney got a little over 25%. 19%. is at it will be very difficult for him to make a background anywhere else. the other place to look at is either college-educated or whites. that has been a real division, a really important demographic shift that we do not always

focus on as much as we have here, but white college educated voters have never voted democratic. clinton, shefor would have a 30 point advantage with college-educated women. collegeins with white educated voters and trump gets 19% with latinos, it will be very difficult for him. >> for me, the groups i would add to that would be the millennials. they would be a group of people they look at that are under age 30. that is not the millennial generation. there's a good chunk of those that are in their 30's. that is where i land. i am watching the older millennials. these are the folks that came of age during hope and change, perhaps during the end of the bush administration. this is a group is a group that

has been locked in as pretty democratic. the republicans have almost lost their chance to win this group back. survey monkey put out of map last week about what the electoral college would look like if only millennials voted. it was blue, except for kentucky , west virginia, idaho, and wyoming, i think those were the only states where republicans won. and it is not always like that. during the election in 2004, at least in the red states, george w. bush was winning regular voters. romney and obama came for a draw in places like indiana. even though we think of young voters as leading to the left, it is not always as to medic as what we are seeing now. rock the vote has been doing a lot of polls with "usa today" and they are finding donald trump winning one of only five

every young voters. george w. bush and al gore almost tied with the youth vote in 2000. 2004, george w. bush lost them a little bit do john kerry. -- a little bit to john kerry. 1/3 of the still had youth vote. this is a historic blowout. yet republican candidates still think it won out of there. donald trump would be lucky to get one out of five. so another piece to the equation, we know that young voters are breaking away from trump. how many of them will turn out? this is a huge unknown. you have only 40% of young voters who have a positive view of hillary clinton. this is not a positive election for a lot of young people. that raises the question, if a

lot of young voters are breaking for hillary clinton, she still needs them to turn out in big numbers to offset whatever majority donald trump will have in the 65 and up crowd. that could be the one thing that is a problem for the democrats. >> i think younger voters have always had a lower turnout. that is something that has always been a challenge. when i first moved to washington 20 years ago we had this big project for the league of women voters and we studied what drove voting behavior and wasn't feeling elite -- and was it feeling alienated, or feeling politics was broken? no, it was age. more than any demographic or attitude toward politics, it was age. it is not the fault of younger voters or politicians necessarily, maybe a little bit in terms of their outrage. it is, are you in a place for a long enough time that you feel connected to the place where you live.

are you a homeowner? are you married? keep yous that connected and you know where your polling place is. all of those pieces help drive voter turnout. part of the reason why millennials now, younger voters at any age, at any era, vote a little bit less. >> what is the secret sauce to motivate younger voters? what does motivate them? >> i think it is the same thing that motivates voters across the board. you have to show what is in it for them. people across the board are feelin feeling politics with thn two eyes. i was talking with somebody , it is as climate change harder sometimes for voters to feel the urgency for them right now. so, how do you make a voters feel connected to the issues

where they really feel it matters and it is not just partisan squabbling, things that do not affect them? >> to a large degree, this has been an issue this campaign. >> i think a number we talked about on the podcast, i believe this was dallas who was asking the question, going back over decades where they say, our presidential candidates, have they been talking about issues that are important to you? even four years ago, you had as much as 3/4 saying yes to that question. you may not like the answers, but "yes" they were talking about questions that matter. historically, the number has gone up. its year, it is below half, has gone down. young voters in particular if they feel unfavorably to where the candidates, that is an acute problem. it is a self reinforcing, vicious cycle. you have politicians who will come to folks like me and say,

young voters don't vote. why should i do this average? and the younger voters say, the reachcians don't out to me. why should i reward them with my vote? i would encourage both parts of the equation to try to break that cycle. >> i wanted to ask something you have been referencing, which is the million-dollar question at this point, about turnout, specifically. i know turnout in trying to predict turnout and trying to project which groups account for some of the variation in the polls. but what do you expect in terms of turnout? is this going to be a high turnout election, a low turnout election? i think the speculation has been all over the place. >> it is hard to know. we had the former president of research on our show. he said, this is a universe that

is not exist yet. you are asking people to self-report the likelihood of voting. they will over report. maybe some of you over reported. maybe a couple of you said, i'm just going to raise my hand right now. people want to over report their likelihood of doing socially desirable behaviors. or maybe, they don't get around to voting for whatever reason. it is hard to know exactly. you are trying to rely on the best information you have, or you ask other kinds of questions, like you look at the voter file. sometimes they are composite scores that can predict how likely somebody is to vote. you can ask them questions about their enthusiasm and whether or not they know their polling place. those kinds of questions have other kinds of biases that could send you any wrong direction. a lot of the polling suggests that people feel less inclined to vote than they have even if they're more engaged in the election.

that said, when you see early voting advantages in some states with more early voting that we have seen, maybe that means there will be higher turnout. i don't know. thehat do you think about turnout operation on both sides? does that actually matter in producing turnout? >> a really good ground game will get you a point or two. it is not win you everything, but if it is a tight race, you would much rather have it. on the republican side, there is not much of a ground game to speak of. this has been a campaign where donald trump has performed a miracle with almost none of the e conventional campaign apparatus that you would expect. i remember the romney campaign laughing. it matters to have an office in your neighborhood where there are volunteers who can knock on doors and say hello to their friends. but donald trump got a lot of attention and earned media.

he is good at getting people to rally. the question is, does that turn into votes? or does that turn into people purchasing hats with your slogan on it? and i do think we know the answer to that question. when it came to the primaries, donald trump would say he is bringing new people into the process, and that is what he is going to do in the general. but many of the folks he was bringing out into the primary were people who were already registered to vote and they were already people who tended to vote in general. they just did not vote in primaries as much. it is a question of how much l ift can he get from this new, secret activated trump vote? people areose already factored into how we thought about this election. polls show republicans are evenly divided on whether or not they like trump, or like to d another candidate.

i think without that ground game, there is a chance that republicans will feel unenthusiastic about voting. on the democratic side, we have the ground game. i know there is this conventional wisdom, or this myth that democrats are not excited about hillary clinton. she actually has consolidated much of the sanders voters behind her earlier than obama did in 2008. she obviously has had some challenges overall in terms of her favorability, she does not have the same challenges trump has among republicans. >> the overall polling has taken up a lot of space in campaign discussions at rallies, trump is always citing this poll or that poll. how do we as consumers of news decide what is a good poll to be trusted and what is a non-reliable poll? >> that is a good question and

this is something that has driven me crazy. on the one hand, you have folks that will say, don't trust the polls. on the other hand, with trump data points, saying crazy things. my thought is, be a poll skeptic. that is ok. you don't have to trust the polls 110%. no two polls are exactly alike. margie and i, our firms were whereed in an experiment they called people off of the voter file, the list of registered voters. so, you know all of these people you are calling, you know how often they have voted in the past. they did the interview and they gave us all the same data set. they said, weigh the data, tell us what you think. in every person found a different answer. margie, i think your firm found clinton up by four.

mine found clinton up by one. >> the data they came in was plus forseven for clinton. >> my firm is actually here. we had a very infernal debate. can adjust ae you survey, it is extremely unlikely you are getting a perfectly representative sample. the good news is, we know a lot about who tends turn out to vote and what we think the electorate is likely to look like, whether it is from major government surveys from the past, what we know about voting history. we can take those factors and come up with your ideas of what we think the electorate will look like. some pollsters choose to wait the data, so that every

man's interview counts different and every woman's interview counts differently. you make all these assumptions and that is where it gets to be art as much as science. and there are things like for instance, in the los angeles times, they are doing a poll with the university of southern california. they have a panel of people they keep talking to, they keep going back to them. it is unique and unusual for a survey of this nature. they found a 19-year-old african-american men living in illinois who really likes donald trump. every time he is in the panel, donald trump goes up by at least one point. and that is because of the w eighting. it is very hard to get young, african-american men. so, your voice is going to count to a lot in the poll compensate how hard it is to interview people like you.

because we have this one respondent who really likes donald trump, his voice is counting as much as 30 times the weight of a single interview. this is a methodological critique of that study, and that is white it is so wobbly. >> they released all of the data. >> and that does not always happen. >> you don't have, internal polls, private polls for candidates, polls for nonprofits and organizations, and they will not release the full data set. you don't need to, really. that's a really high bar in terms of transparency. you are just trusting their judgment. bad if not mean they are there is fluctuation. it could mean somebody had a different assumption about whether the party different was by three points or four points. it could be a really big difference, it could be a difference in terms of

methodology. how many people are being reached on their cell phones, look and a panel of folks they are reaching online, how they are accounting for likely voters. all of those different fluctuations really contribute to some of the fluctuations you see in the polls. it does not mean that they are all bad. there is this trend. i don't know if it is getting worse or not, where people doubt the polls they disagree with. post" did aton study showing people disagreed with any poll they did not like the outcome. they were suspicious of it. that was very much symbolic of what has been going on in the cycle. pewe found that 80% of the americans found the candidates don't even agree on the basic alone the policy approaches they have. there is this sense that everybody is living in their own world. the polling being kind of part of that, i think is a symptom,

rather than a cause, of people wanting to create their own reality. the polls have been swept up in that. >> if you want to err on the side of caution, poll aggregators don't ever let one poll through you off or thing, one showed clinton was up by four, but now trump is up by one, waht's hat's going on? stay calm. the fluctuation is normal. it is typical. pollsters have different assumptions. poll aggregators are your best bet. with time to go through every single poll and understand what the specific methodological strength and weaknesses are. there is nothing such as a gold standard poll anymore. you can call people on phone but it's hard to reach. you can do online, but you are missing some people there. you can call off of voter files, but then you are missing new registrants. offs and pluse

and minuses. even the average is diverse nowadays. >> at least you are smoothing out some of that. >> what about tracking polls? >> a tracking poll is unique in the way it works is you cut a rolling sample going on. know, aof calling you thousand people over a couple days, analyzing the survey and releasing it, they are calling me a couple hundred people a night and the next night they will call another couple hundred people, and they will rotate in, they are looking at the most recent three days. they will drop out 100 people and then add 100 people. that is why a looks like donald trump a cup 13 points all the sudden. you have people falling into and out of the sample, creating a trend line. >> you have a podcast called the

pollster. polling,dvocates for as am i. i would like to know your reaction to the role that polling has played this year. and the debate last summer that placement on the stage was determined by their position in the poll. two there were actually debates and people called it the varsity and the jv, and it was said it was dependent on their positions in the polls. what do you think about that? is that an appropriate use of pullingolling, or not? >> we did a very interesting interview. it said we are not going to believe anymore republican anymore republican ballot

the first debate because we do not want people to think this way. >> people were doing crazy things. >> if you are looking at a poll with 800 registered voters your margin of error is going to be high enough that the difference between being ben carson and rick santorum might be statistical noise. on the one hand, what are the criteria you are going to use? how can you possibly do this? if you have 17 people, you will have to have one method of deciding. on the other hand the frustration was the use of very small statistically insignificant differences between candidates to make significant decisions about their placement. once they had the first debate and have had their audition, at that point, i think you can use the polls normally. voters have had a chance to see these folks.

if you are in there at 2%, that's on you. that's your problems. but at at the beginning it was very volatile and all of these candidates run a very slim margin. was it appropriate to do that? i don't know. on the other hand, it is hard for me to think of what a fair alternative would be. >> we have come a long way as an industry from 20 years ago when i was at a party and i said i was a pollster and somebody was really excited because she thought i was an upholsterer. [laughter] >> she did not know what that was. back then, people did not know what that was. and i think that is great. there is this sense because of so much of what is public, visual is asian, the statistical modeling, that is what people think polling is, and it is that. but it's also having an ear to

what voters are thinking. it is focus groups and writing messages that makes sense. it is being able to tell a story of what the data says. it is being able to write questions that translate what and client wants to know, something you responded really cares about and understands. and being able to translate to your client. all of those things are totally different than statistical modeling and big data and analysis, and as a pollster, you need to be able to be fluent in all of it. i think that is something that is shortchanged a little bit and all of this dialogue about poland. a lot of people think, is it 42.3 or 42.2? is it rigged because it said 42.6? that is a very small part of what goes on behind the scenes with polling. >> weave a couple quick

questions for you before we go to the audience. favorite poll questions. that really tells you something about the voter. >> this is a good one. margie, do you want to go first? >> i have got to think about this. you can pick favorite or worst. >> my worst one, i don't want to call it the worst, i just had a beef with it. and it was longitudinal. i can appreciate they do want to change it. .t is about stronger gone laws the nomenclature and how we talk about gun laws has changed a lot. it used to be that it was gun control. that was the phrase we used, gun control. but when you use the word "control," it changes the responses about people responding to stronger gun laws. they have been asking about gun

control for 20 years and they are not going to throw their question out and lose all of that tracking. pewe has an example of a question, which is, which do you think is more important, controlling gun ownership, or you know, giving up the rights for people to own a gun? and the controlling gun ownership, which does not talk about the means, it is not an actual end of what he would do that, i think that really has a distorted view of how people view stronger gun laws. anyway, that is my beef. i have beenstion, wondering about for a long time. that to me is an example of how question wording drives what people think about what public opinion is when lots of other kinds of? show something different. >> i can do my polling beef, and

this is pretty informed by the news today. this question when you ask people about something that happened in the news, and you say, is this make you more or less likely to vote for someone? these questions are so silly because when you break down the results, all of the people will say, it makes me less likely to vote for someone. they were already in the other party and not voting for them anyway. and folks say, no, this makes no difference. or they are already supporting the candidate. for the most part, i think it can be interesting if you see a significant portion of people in someone's own party that say, yes, that makes me less likely to vote for them. you can see the changes in the ballot. and this goes to the earlier question of how is coverage of the race change because of the polls. i see mountains getting made out of molehills. where suddenly, donald trump will say something offensive and it will say, 70% of voters say they are less likely to vote for donald trump.

and then the polls will come out the next week and they have not moved. so the people who said they were less likely to vote for donald trump had not really changed their minds of step one of the most interesting ways you can study whether people's minds are changing, is whether their minds change. polandy liked that mentioned before, but there are methodological problems with it. individuals will re-contract overtime. suddenly, they were trump voters , and then suddenly they were clinton voters. that is really interesting. 70% said they were less likely to vote for hillary clinton because of the wikileaks. and most people have probably not read those wikileaks e-mails. so, you are just responding based on, what do you already think about these candidates? i think it is the over interpretation that has been might beef with this

election. >> that is the answer we all want to know. what does this mean to your vote ? people who talk about polls and people who watch campaigns are just desperate for some sort of change and something to talk about. i think sometimes people are looking for that to say, here it is! and it is not always there. voters are not always that sensitive. it just does not work that way. >> not everybody reads twitter. >> we are going to move to audience questions. just one quick question before we go to that. because maybe you have some aspiring pollsters, or at least students who are very interested in political careers. can you give a quick tip or piece of advice, in terms of your own career, what should they be thinking, or what should

they remember as they are thinking about their own future may be in politics? >> i think the best pollsters are those who do not think of it as entirely math or entirely verbal, if that makes sense. if you think of polling as, i have to take all of these statistics classes and i have to know how to use art, yes, you do. but it is also about, can you craft a message that is compelling? can use it in a focus group -- can you sit in a focus group and talk to people for 90 minutes and extract interesting insights from what they are thinking and feeling? , thesechology, rhetoric things also matter. especially, if you are going to do this in washington, knowing a thing or two about policy matters. when i was in graduate school i tried to take as few classes as possible about polling itself or statistics itself and try to take classes about foreign policy, the intelligence community, things that were outside of my scope.

but if i have a client who wants me to do a study about, what do americans think about u.s. foreign policy, or what do americans think about education policy, if i have a little bit of knowledge about the actual discussions happening in those fields, that will make me a better pollster. i think being well-rounded is very important. don't don't think that you have to become a stat geek. you have to be a policy geek. you have to be a message geek. you have to be a well-rounded person. >> you also have to be open-minded about voters. if you find yourself in a, i do want to say in a bubble, but if you find yourself in a life where you are not meeting folks from different walks of life, you are not traveling the country and meeting a diverse group of people and maybe you find yourself really having a narrower circle, that is going to affect how open you are to hearing what other voters are thinking about and what is on

their minds. that is really important. and you don't get that just by running stats all day. you have to go out and talk to voters, or surround yourself with different kinds of people so you can hear the different kinds of conversations. >> i think we will go ahead and move to some audience questions. we have two folks who will come around with microphones. if i could ask students, please, when you stand, if you could stand to ask your question, can you tell us your name and what school you are from question mark and we would also really appreciate, we want to get as many questions in as possible. give your questions t succint, and make sure it is a question. we are not here to give campaign statements. >> my name is jacob and i'm with the school of international service. first of all, thank you both for sharing your extremely valuable time. we have heard a lot in this

election about how much the national news media has been affecting voters and voter outlook. polls are very important. if you could give the news media one piece of advice they would actually take, report on, and represent polling, what would that be? >> i think it would go back to what i said about, don't make a mountain out of a molehill. as a republican, we have to be part of partisan -- we have to be bipartisan. i think the media bias is biased in favor of action and excitement in creating the headlines and shiny objects. isis not as partisan, but it still a problem. and then i think it is way too easy for the latest will number to come out and everybody goes, oh my gosh, donald trump is surging in the polls because he went up two. statistically, that is a nightmare. that is not correct.

my advice to the media would be, and it is not in my self-interest to say this because gosh, margie and i get to go on television of the time every time trump goes up or down a few points and people want to talk about it. but we would be better served if , for every store you did about what happened in the polls today , you did a story about what people are going to do to make sure people have affordable childcare. so, i think a is the one piece of advice that i would give, to not necessarily make a mountain out of a molehill. i think when you have junk food available, it is so much easier to want to go get it. right? i think if i could say anything, it would be, everybody just needs to calm down. every time a new poll comes up does not mean the world is ending. >> there is a lot of reaction to data, getting the data wrong. -- there is not a

lot of accountability of just making up a mix of data that you just heard or repurpose thing a poll or analysis that you did. you lead people down these wrong paths. that would probably be one of the things. there is a lot of commentary that is so removed from where voters are that voters are incredibly sensitive to all the sort of weird twists and turns of washington, that it is all going to turn on a dime based on what member of congress did or did not endorse so and so for leadership. but is this really going to matter in the midterms? things that don't really matter. insider-types the political media, what they need to cover, but let's not pretend that that is something actual voters care about. aaron from theis school of public affairs.

i just want to say thank you and i also enjoy your podcast. in your episode last night you talked about the survey monkey poll. i'm interested if you could talk about if you think the online polling is going to grow the next few years, and if so what are the hurdles to get there? especially low income voters, who don't have regular access to the internet. how are they going to be included? >> it's already becoming more accepted, certainly by businesses. they made that move a long time ago. the cost difference is really substantial. and it is probably only going to get wider as landmines and cell phones become more expensive because of federal regulations, because o there is an increasing number of people who are cell phone only. to do a valid poll at the last minute csosts a lot of money.

if you have a lot of these polls calling the election correct, you will have a lot more news outlets and folks who are really legitimacy of a live poll, that seems like the gold standard. i think the next cycle will be a completely different ball of walks. what will still be a challenge is congressional, county, and local races. it is harder to do those online. think there are still some hurdles, but it is definitely already moving. and canada are already doing the online polls for elections. it's already accepted as common practice. >> the other thing to keep in mind, and if you listen to the online pollsall are the same. you have the poll that anyone can click on at greenwich report after a debate, that was reported on as a online poll and

that is not nearly the same as you know, what is going on with the nbc survey and monkey partnership. they willoes, is contact people through more traditional methods. if you don't have internet, they will get you a cheap laptop and internet connection to try to correct for some of the coverage bias. there is no perfect field method. but everybody has a landline phone. barely anybody has a landmine phone anymore. not everyone has a cell phone and not everyone has the internet. there is no one, perfect approach. i think it is important to point out that not all surveys conducted online are equal. >> hello. i'm michelle and i'm canadian. [laughter] women,you tell us about where have they gone during the course of the campaign? actually as gender

motivating factor for women, or not? do you think that after this election women will be forever lost to the conservative cause? is there still room for conservative female perspective on sustainability of social programming, or social inclusion misogyny ofas the the republican presidential candidate permanently turned away women from conservativism? >> this is the stuff of my nightmares. [laughter] >> as young, female conservatives, this whole election has been a nightmare continuing to unfold. i did a focus group in new hampshire about a little over a year ago. the primaries were still in full swing and people were not focused yet on the general election. as a focus group of women, with the caveat, people are not 100% honest with you. beingask, all things

equal, how many of you would say you give hillary clinton bonus points because you are women and she is a woman and you would get to see the first female president? the older women in the focus group were more willing to say, you know what, yes. i would like to see a female president my lifetime. she has worked for it. i don't agree with her on the issues, but it is positive. but the younger women were less willing to go there. they said, i believe i will see a fema president and my lifetime. it does not have to be her. i wanted to be the most qualified person. in the exit polls in the democratic primary, bernie sanders was winning 80% of young women, but there was almost no gender gap among the millennial generation. i think the younger people view issues of gender equity, as a little bit different.

the battle they are fighting is a little different. with that said, i don't think for the most part you're going to have a ton of people in the millennial generation it will say, yes i am a democrat forever take as they put the first woman in the white house. i think you have seen in the polls come at the same time donald trump is running of the numbers with white men with college degrees, he is cratering among white women with college degrees. at just astonishing margins. iat is the sort of thing think is going to be incredibly hard for republicans to come back from. even anecdotally, in focus groups i will hear people say, this is a weird thing happening to the republican party. a lot of voters are willing to say, ok, guys, that trum thing thing was weird, but proved to me that is not really you. the party is going to have to quickly prove that is not us or risk permanent damage with groups like millennials and women.

>> and it is tough because you know, for democrats who might be excited, there is a social pressure to say, i don't care about gender, i just vote for the person. there is social pressure to do it. that is what we aspire to be for ourselves. so, we are not always very good reporters of our biases in any direction. i think it is hard to know for sure because we only have hillary clinton to relate to. and we can't separate out hillary clinton's gender from her everything else. the fact that there was no gender gap in the primary does not have to be because of her gender. they could be because millennials are so focused on income inequality and cost affordability that that was it. and maybe gender would have been third or fourth. it is hard to know. it does not necessarily mean what some older sentiments argue, like younger women just

did not get it somehow. i don't think that was helpful either. the other thing in terms of the gender gap, this time around, traditionally, historically, if the gender gap is 10 points or higher, then democrats win. a lot of polls have shown trump with a larger gender gap than that. i think one paul had a 15 point gender gap. i saw another one that showed him with a 20 point gender gap. if the gender gap is in that 15 range, i20 point think that is going to be just impossible for donald trump to overcome. he would have to get 100% of those white non college-educated men, and there is not enough of them to offset all the other people he has alienated. hi, i'm can is.

i am from the strategic communication program. i just wanted to know, if you think the information they send out to sway the voters in the polling is overly saturated and that is why it is not really affecting them when they go out? you know, the notice that went out friday about clinton is not really doing anything. do think people are immune or just don't care anymore? or is it too much? if that makes sense. >> i guess it feels like a lot if you are in the zone. especially in battleground states, people feel overwhelmed with information, but it works. it does help move a lot of people and a lot of races. sometimes you need to communicate way more than seems correct in order for people to hear it. we just announce this in our office. you will be able to find that tomorrow at sometime, tbd, where we asked about 10 different times of contact.

undecideds for a lot less likely to avoid contact, while the bases themselves felt like they had had a lot of contact. clinton's base felt her contact more than trump's base felt his contact. that stuff does matter in terms of making sure people know when to vote and how to vote in getting mobilized. so, that stuff does matter at the margins. i don't know if it turns people off anymore this year than previous years. some people might feel like they have had their fill and i can appreciate that. i don't think it suppresses. i don't think it suppresses turnout, per se. there is some evidence that some of the stuff gets baked in really early. this election aside, and just focusing on 2012 there was a two called """the gamble" by political scientists.

they did a survey where every week they were tracking what people thought of the election. what they came to the conclusion of was republicans spent hundreds of millions of dollars and democrats spent hundreds of millions of dollars and they just canceled each other out. the race was always kind of favoring obama by a couple points and that was the race we got. it was just this mutually assured destruction situation. they both just destroyed each other. there were also reports that the polling based did more on this analytic type stuff. you did not have the weird sampling variation. they also show it was a three-point race for obama all along. a slight change after that first debate where romney did really well, but for the most part, it was pretty stable. sometimes, it is easy to look out for the media to cover some of there is this new ad by t rump. is this going to change voters?

the best predictors of whether you are going to vote is, did you vote last time? the best printer of who you are going to vote for is what party you are in. a lot of the independent voters are functionally not independent. they are named independent, but they functionally behave as republicans or democrats. that is what makes it hard for anyone news headline to really shake things up. >> yes, if you were from another country, you would probably be horrified at how much we spend on campaigns at the convention. time, when you hear about what goes on. i remember talking to some people about brexit. i asked, was it really crazy, all the campaigning? they said, there was this debate. something.y said i said, what? campaign,t a news

there was not like wall-to-wall ads for a year. i thought, that is very different from what it is like here. >> i am brittany. i am with the school of communications. obviously we have heard of trump recently bashing the polls and claiming all of them are rigged , and obviously, look clinton has been leading in most of them. i listen to the media broadcast today, which was from friday before all of this fbi stuff broke. but the commentator on there had talked about some concern about the publics' trust in polling going forward. with clinton leading and donald trump saying this is rigged, do you have any concern about the publics'trust in polling going forward? >> sure, and there is a chance

the polls can be wrong. it is easy to say, everything is fine. the point is, nobody saw it coming. there is a chance there were some hidden donald trump votes that were missing. there is a chance we were sampling some people wrong. but keep in mind, we were also missing clinton voters, who are harder to reach through traditional polling methods. there is a chance some people think it is socially undesirable to confess to vote for donald trump and then there are some people who might think it is politically incorrect to confess to vote for clinton. one thing that concerns me, let's think to november 9 and donald trump has won. the polls were showing clinton was ahead. then you have the claims that the polls were raked. it will wrong, they were trying to tell a story that i was down and it was false. but then let's also consider the alternative. the polls show clinton is going to win, they say they are rigged, and then she wins.

then could you come out as donald trump and say, they rigged the outcome with voter fraud and this is just a cover? this is all possible and this is what concerns me the most. people don't trust the polls. i think people should be skeptical consumers of anything they are told. i don't mind people questioning my industry. i think it deserves to be questioned. what concerns me it is then used to say democracy is not working and votes don't count. that is what keeps me up at night, far more than people thinking that polling is broken. polling might be broken, what i don't think democracy is broken. >> we focus too much on the predictive nature of polls? i think that could be a big piece of it. ways, and weme have talked about this on our show, the horse race question in a poll is a very interesting question out there.

questions about what people are feeling about their economic situation and what they about the issues tells us more about what is really happening. but we have focused on the horse race and i think that is wobbly. months ago, the polls are not meant to be predictive of anything. they are meant to be illustrative, but not predictive. >> and donald trump wins, we have a bigger problem than the polls all being wrong. i think we have time for one more question. >> thank you. i am a huge fan of the show. but looking beyond the election what do you think of how the government uses polling for policymaking and for things other than the horse race? things like, you see congressional candidates using a

lot of polling, but also criticizing the acs, and do you think there is opportunity for the government to improve the use of polling in administration and policy? >> this drives me nuts. the cubs republicans are the most guilty on the hill of saying things like, the census needs to be gutted. part of that is tapping into peoples' in some cases, justified skepticism. but the idea that it is fiscally responsible to slash the budgets of programs that actually enable federalke the huge budget and spending more efficiently, that drives me crazy. i am all in favor of the and having good data with which to make good policy decisions is so important. i understand that people have genuine concern about their own privacy, being uncomfortable with the government asking invasive questions. i understand those sorts of things, but when it suddenly becomes a, big government, wants

to slash funding to this program, i think it is so in fortune that my party is going to be the party of efficient government, that we are making databased and evidence-based decisions and the surveys you mentioned are so important. >> to your point about members of congress using polling to decide the policies they should take up i think there is this tendency for us to say, why are summary politicians poll tested? what is wrong with them? they are not actually listening to voters, that is the alternative. or they are listening to the voters who come and find them. they are listening to the parents of their kids' friends or their staffers, or donors, or the people they meet on the plane home every weekend. as opposed to actual representative samples of people in their district. and that helps a lot of members of congress and candidates and politicians around the country have a better idea of where

their actual constituents are. in some ways, we romanticize and it is ideal, but this is a way for people to stay better in touch with their constituents. >> great. we want to first of all think the school of communications and the school of public affairs and cu for all of your help tonight and we want to especially thank our pollsters. [applause] >> and thank you all for coming. we have a reception outside with copies of "the selfie vote" for sale. you can stop by and ask any follow-up questions. one week to go. so, thank you! >>

c-span's washington journal with news and information that affects you. at therning, look act 2000 presidential election with al gore and george bush to see if there is any comparison to this year's election. then supreme court correspondent for the new york times on whether the judges can be the electionsom themselves. on the recentre, protest in north dakota and led by the standing rock tribe over the dakota access pipeline and the possible effect on their water supply. watch beginning at 7:00 a.m. this morning. >> this morning on c-span, our road to the white house coverage continues with donald trump. hillary clinton speaks in fort lauderdale, florida.