>> and your closing statement. mr. metcalfe: before you vote, ask yourself one question. what has that candidate done for alaska? i was the co-author of the language that established the investment program for the it has held up pretty well. i will continue my efforts to root out corruption like i did with their bribery of the legislators to give oil away. i will do everything i am able to end the pay to play game congress is so heavily involved in. >> thank you. thank you, that is it for alaska public media's 2016 debate for the state. thank you to the candidates for participating, and thank you for joining us. stay with us for a few minutes of analysis of the senate debate with zachariah hughes, and andrew kitchemen.

good night. ♪ >> the senate races that will determine which party controls the chamber and the 115th congress. joining us is jennifer duffy, senior editor for the cook political report.

thank you as always for being with us. steve: what is the broad overview? jennifer: as you know, democrats are fighting for the majority. and to do that they need for seats that would tie the chamber. five for an outright majority if trump are to be elected. where does the stand today? we have been on a little bit of a roller coaster in senate races. republicans were holding their own. they are probably going to lose the majority but not by much. before the access hollywood take came out on october 7. then they took a dip. races that were close, they

started the trail democrats. last friday's news of more e-mail and possibly an fbi investigation into the clinton foundation has changed things again. whatever republicans lost they seem to have picked back up. on election day we think the democrats are poised to figure between four and six seats. they marginally get the majority if they only take up four, and have 52 if they pick up six. steve: seven races that will determine what will happen tuesday evening. new hampshire. this is a race that is remained ready much again from the beginning. jennifer: absolutely. from the very beginning of the cycle i predicted this might end up being the very closest senate race of the mall. the poll has born i don't over 24 months. it has been very close. it is on the edge. this is going to be one of the races, but i don't think either

party feels confident enough to claim a win. steve: pennsylvania? jennifer: democrats feel increasingly good about this race. donald trump is not doing well, particularly in suburban philadelphia, in pittsburgh. that is hurting pat toomey at the moment. while the polling has been all over the place, you get the sense that democrats and their candidate katie mcginty have a edge right now. steve: there are senate races some might consider surprises because the heaven so close. first in north carolina. jennifer: i called north carolina to 10 layer cake of this election. there is a lot going on in north carolina. you have competitive presidential race, competitive gubernatorial race. then there are things that are

shaping the political environment like hb 2, the so-called transgender bathroom bill that is really polarized voters. even things like -- which caused -- hurricane matthew that caused devastating flooding in the state. you have the riots in charlotte. all of this is playing a role in this election. in some ways it is not surprising that senator has found himself in a close race. this is one of the closest, within the margin of error. it could go either way. steve: missouri, a democrat with an ad in this campaign cycle that really broke through and got a lot of attention. now you have this as a close race with the incumbent senator seeking a second term. jennifer: this i think is maybe the biggest surprise of the cycle. missouri in presidential elections is so red. you would not expect a

republican senator to have much problem. what jason kander is doing is very interesting. he is piggybacking on trump's message. antiestablishment, anti-insiderism. training the swamp in washington. sen. blunt: doesn't fact that senator blunt doesn't reflect some insiders of washington. the focal point of the ad has been blunt's family. his wife and three adult children who all are lobbyists. the ads also pretty much routinely feature his house in washington, which is probably at $1.6 million is a little bit out of the range of most missouri voters. it's interesting. he is playing this card. that is what has made this race very close.

trump should win here, by between eight and 10 points. is that enough to help blunt? maybe. steve: wisconsin and indiana. two former senators, one defeated in one retired who are trying to come back to washington. jennifer: i think indiana is the book in to missouri. while it is about a democrat who wants to come back, the same argument is being made. that bayh was in the senate and is in retirement and part of the problem with washington. that has been made effectively. he started this race 21 points ahead. that race is now tied for all intents and purposes. i think this is another state where trump wins big and bayh may have a problem. wisconsin is a new one on the list. we essentially have given this

want to democrats in september because senator ron johnson had trailed him and just about every poll. over the past seven days it has been interesting to see. sometimes instead of following the poll numbers, follow the money. democrats went in first and surprised a lot of people by spending $2 million in last-minute ads. republicans followed them and they put up $2 million in after-tax feingold. we finally saw a poll and that race looks even. i would still put one on the scale for feingold but it is a tossup. steve: let's take a look at

nevada, a state where republicans hoping for a pickup with the retirement of the democratic leader, senator harry reid. what is your assessment of that race? jennifer: that has been an interesting race. the republican joe heck has been doing well. when the access hollywood take came out he walked away from trump. he unendorsed him. that angered a lot of republicans in the state which did not help him. yesterday he seemed to change course again, which i'm not sure is a winning proposal. the hispanic voters will make the difference. they are going to turn out to vote. democrats have a very strong ground game. republicans who are accountable -- uncomfortable for voting for heck have a place to go. they have the option to vote for none of the above. i think democrats hold the seat. steve: jennifer duffy from the