we know that in presidential election years, the turnout is big and broad and relatively diverse and looks less like the country, and it midterms the turnout is 40% lower, older, whiter, more conservative, more republican. republicans had seven senate seats up in states that president obama carried. there are no democrats in states that mitt romney carried, but for 2018, it was like everything was on the other foot. ok, it's a bit term election, so it favors republicans. we thought that it was going to be a midterm election with a democratic president. yardstick,ouse as a the party has gained seats in precisely

there were 25 democratic seats up and only a republican seats -- eight republican seats up in 2018. all the factors working against republicans this year would be working against democrats in 2018. topsy-turvy, iof guess -- part of your question would be is this a group of ,eople, party leaders in ohio who get in a room and commission a lot of polling and research sherrod brown and their potential candidates and

take a vote and decide who would be the optimum candidate? that would be the way it should work, but not the way it does anymore. you would have quite a few republicans running for that seat and they may or may not get the optimum person. -- optimal person. myo not know off the top of head who would be the optimal person. courts the supreme istice who said i do not -- cannot define pornography, but i know it if i see it? you will get someone and you know they would be a good challenger. for example, -- but sometimes that does not work. for example, democrats were really excited when they recruited patrick murphy out of florida. however, the republicans

dismantled the guy. we don't know yet. >> you provided a lot of interesting exit polling data, -- obviously it tracts tracks differently with what we saw the for the pre-election polling. can you give us an excellent nation for why the pre-election polling was so off, particularly from the campaign standpoint? nationalfirst let's do and then take the state part. national, what we say the average was going in? 4?nton by 3, clinton by abeing half, or a third of a point.

it is off but not orders of magnitude off. , i think the best holsters in the business -- p the business are not as good as the predecessors were 30 or 40 years ago. use liveones interviews and use cell phone. the problem is caller id. all these teleprompters -- telemarketers burned people out. if my parents got a call 30 or 40 years ago, they would be flattered that someone was

wondering about their opinion. is if the question is who interacting my dinner? you check the caller id and you don't know who that is, you don't want to talk to them. before they used to be able to get near completion and now it is down to 9%. getting a representative sample is really, really hard. their bestst doing work, it is not as reliable as it used to be. i do not see that as much of a failure. on some of the states where you had stayed polling -- state polling. first of all, not a lot had stayed polling going on. -- state polling going on. is anyone here from minnesota?

did you see any? i could not remember any. michigan had a few, it was not exactly over polled. outad some that were coming two to three times a week. the quality of polls in an individual states vary a lot. where the polling was off the most was in some of the states. where we thought the fight would be and the fight ended up being were two different places. what the campaigns may have been , i don't know. you have to ask pollsters for each side, give them some sodium allus all -- sodium pen us thol and ask them.

what a poll that had clinton up 4% and she won- by less than 1%? the non-college-educated whites, but the small-town numeral, i suspect they have realreally did -- underrepresented. when you do focus groups you have cities that have good focus groups facilities where they all go to columbus, ohio, they go to with good facilities. but they do not go with good fa. 20 miles, 30 miles, 40 miles south. they do not go out there. tapping into that small-town, rural thing, that they suspicion

that i have as far as where we missed tapping in on some of that anger. york.pstate new , that might bek a completely different state than the city and the suburbs. >> a quick follow-up to that. your assumption that the clinton campaign, they probably modeled that the vote would be similar to the obama vote and it blew her out of the water. is that your take? >> it sure looks like it -- charlie: it sure looks like it. my transcript is open if anyone wants to wikileaks a bunch of internal documents on tv.

that's not even funny. [laughter] minds woulduiring like to know what that they see and when did they see it. i'm not inclined to throw a lots of rocks at the technical people in that campaign, because some i have dealt with, they have bright, talented people who were, a lot of them were on the obama campaign in 08 competent they were then. i do not think they woke up in competent, they were just doing different things and having some of the challenges that secretary clinton had, image challenges. let's face it, where the democratic party is going. president obama, nancy pelosi,

the democrat where party is is a happening place for some kinds of voters but it is a different planet than with the voters in south arkansas, where my parents grew up, for example. i don't know, good question. anybody else before i go? jeff brown with pew charitable trusts. curious as to the impact of the -- been a -- has panic hispanic/latino turnout. future give us some views and what will happen in arizona and texas and so on? charlie: i will say with the

benefit of sleep, a lot more data. and in somesion certain areas the latino vote was out and robust. i was hearing a little bit of it in florida. there was a bit of the cuban vote that may have complicated things a little bit. part of it is, i was talking to a political scientist that does some stuff with democratic party. i asked when texas will go purple? what i was told is, 2020 earliest, 2024 is more plausible . this person made a comparison with california. have a large, you

growing latino population that typically tends to be in urban areas. then you have really, really employeeepublican unions that are more than happy to spend money on voter registration, localization -- mobilization, all of that. in texas the latino vote is much more spread out and in rural, small towns. you do not have the financial infrastructure that california democrats had in texas. as a result it is going to lag the curve. it will be on a completely different trajectory in nalifornia was -- tha california was. arizona might be in the middle,

so it is foolish to expect them to behave exactly like california. he, 187?h where was it really alienated latino , it got generation ago worse and worse and worse. look at what mitt romney did it to rick perry, where he tried to take a moderate position on immigration and romney just killed him with it. republicans have not paid in the way keep wilson had in california in 80's -- behaved in had in pete wilson

california in the 80's. i think there will be a lot written. i think we expect charitable trust to write a lot of it. but it is too soon. we have to wait until all the votes are in and all the exit polls have been weighted and massaged and are ready to do it. anybody else before i get the hook? >> two-part question. how do you see [indiscernible] issues playing out the republican party? and the second part is [indiscernible] [laughter] charlie: there is a rule of thumb. never take the last question.

those are good questions, though. wonder, where the country is going on social and cultural issues, where the republican party needs to be in the future, i don't think this year will have done a lot of good at advancing the cause that the republican party needs to make changes to go after younger voters in the future. a lesson that needed to be learned, i think, probably did not get learned this year. it kicked it down the sidewalk a little longer and allows, i problem demographic further public and on cultural issues to get worse rather for them to start figuring out that 40 looknder 50, under

at these cultural issues very, very, very differently than where the historic republican base has. i were a moderate republican hoping that the party would change its direction on cultural issues, i would be really, becauseepressed today, while the republican party run the presidency -- won the presidency, that fight kind of got prolonged. for the first hundred days? your guests is as good as mine -- guess is as good as mine. we're going to facile our seat -- fasten our seat belts and buckle up for a wild ride. i don't even know if he knows what he's going to do yet. your membership and national

journal will help you understand that. [laughter] signed myrare ready new, but that is a little extra newellready signed myra , but that is a little extra. i will turn it back to kevin. [laughter] kevin: there is a couple things to mention before leaving. you all received an e-mail from us that will have a survey. that very, very seriously here at the national journal and take our members very seriously, and would love to know what you thought. are decks that some of our centers prepared. some of you have them. pick one up on the way out, we are hoping to be helpful there.

we look forward to serving you in the next 100 days. [applause] [indiscernible conversation]

>> and a moment on c-span as our post election coverage continues, donald trump's victory speech from the you hours of the morning. we also have hillary clinton's concession speech around 8:00 here on c-span. more reaction and analysis coming your way tomorrow. we're covering a discussion at the heritage foundation -- discussionis on the impact. we go to the smithsonian institution for a campaign 2016 review with democratic and republican pollsters.

at 6:40 fiverage eastern time here on c-span. now back from the early hours of today, president-elect donald trump and his victory speech. [crowd chanting "usa"] >> ladies and gentlemen, please welcome the vice president-elect of the united states, mike pence. [cheers and applause] [cheers and applause]

gov. pence: this is a historic night. [cheers and applause] gov. pence: the american people have spoken and the american people have elected their new champion. [cheers and applause]