tv Post- Election Analysis CSPAN April 23, 2017 9:47pm-10:21pm EDT
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ink more. >> but if you blank on something, go back to what you do know. use those context clues. you have studied hard and worked hard, your teacher has pretty well. use those context clues. take a deep breath. and problem solve. announcer: the annual exam is always fun and informative. join us on c-span. the results are in for the first round of voting in the french presidential election. the candidates receiving the most votes are former french economy minister emmanuel macron and national front leader marine le pen. face eachnow focus -- other in a runoff vote. this the first time in modern frenchmen street at the presidential runoff will not teacher a major party candidate. next, a look at some election coverage, including speeches
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from the candidates. this is courtesy of france 24. appeared majore upset in french history. 23.7% of the votes ahead of marine le pen, 21.7% of the vote. this means for the first time ever in the history of the fifth wo mainstream t parties are you limited after round one. the socialists and the conservatives and two outsiders will face-off on may 7 for the second round. we thought there might be three names. we now have two names. >> indeed. let's take a look at how the other candidates fared. there we have it. certainly an extremely tight race. , jean-lucillon melenchon have the same score
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tied for third. look at the did. 6.2%. >> that's incredible. >> it really is incredible, under 10%. going down further, 5%. let's see if we can look at the other candidates just to see where all 11 came in. 1.5%, much trailing in, 1.2%. that being said, this is a stork. -- historic. >> yes. emmanueluld have bet macron would be in the lead. marine le pen was said in all the post to be in the second round, but much higher. some said it was around 30%. she is ending just under 22%. obviously this pushes her to the second round. this is a feet achieved -- feat achieved by her father 2002.
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the second round, all the polls have shown that emmanuel macron would win and become france's next president. obviously there are two weeks of campaigning to go. what if so, emmanuel macron would become a very young president of france. but obviously this is a whole new campaign starting tonight. >> what a shakeup. i don't know if we have images that we could pull up of the headquarters. just to see reaction to this news as it comes in. there we have the images from emmanuel macron supporters. they are certainly ecstatic that their candidate has pulled off something that has never been seen before here in france. it cannot be understated that this 39-year-old has pulled off this victory and it does not belong to a political party. he started his own movement a year ago and he has been able to
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galvanize support. that is what we see there. he came out on top. i don't know if we can pull out the images we have from northern france we have marine le pen's headquarters but i'm sure the images must be similar. i want to bring in a lexus -- alexis. what is your take on what we have just seen happen? >> as you said, has stork. the -- historic. the two main parties are out. the populist movement we have seen in europe -- she is in second position, not first. the past few months she was number one. but clearly emmanuel macron had more votes tonight. and what is going to happen, i think apart from the campaign,
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willat the big parties have to think ahead in how they recompose and what will be next because a lot of people -- people from the right saying marine le pen might be the new right and emmanuel macron might be the new quote. we'll have to wait and see. -- the new hope. we'll have to wait and see. the question is what is going to happen. angela, one thing we can say for once because we have been criticizing polling institutes -- they were right. they predicted macon vs. le pen. this is not an exit poll. from a taping -- taken representative of voting
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stations. >> 19.5 % was exactly what they predicted on friday. the two of them tied at that number. that is extraordinary. the other notable thing is this is a clear shift to the right in france. disregarding the smaller candidates, 19.5% for the , thating candidate, 6% makes up about 25% of the electorate. has positioned himself in the middle and the right try to present him as someone who was not quite in the middle but more to the left. but he is a centrist candidate, more or less, and that means a centrist candidate, the mainstream right candidate, and the far right candidate elected a huge majority of the votes. the question now before the
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second round will be whether to take a leap into the unknown with marine le pen -- because a lot of the next round will be about europe, and she wants a referendum on leaving the european union, a referendum on leaving the euro, she wants to leave nato -- these are big, big decisions. macon will come to present the pen willo -- le represent what she has always represented and perhaps french voters will feel that the time is right. but it looks like nothing can be predicted but it looks like macon will probably win. when you see these two -- seeing france's political landscape shifting completely and starting a new? > this is th -- this is the collapse of the
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two mainstream parties. the point you are making earlier, is the crisis of party actually part of the crisis of the regime? interestingery double -- deliberations. the immediate question now is what happens? my sense is there going to tear themselves apart. that actually tells us something about what happens in the future because in a sense, this fits republic come if you like -- this 5th republic only functions if you have -- that is going to create enormous problems. maconint being made that doesn't even have a party, led on a majority in our lab.
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le pen has two mp's. there will be an enormous rocky ride from now on. >> we're going to have to interject to cross to emmanuel macron's rally. i imagine a lot of energy behind you. >> absolutely. a bunch of people behind me absolutely ecstatic. they know there is a very good chance emmanuel macron will be the next president of chance. still more campaigning to go but they are pretty confident. there is one thing they need to think about. you can hear them shouting macon, macon. but there are parliamentary elections that come up in june in france and macon does not have his own political party. 14,000 people has said --
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there's lots of interest. emmanuel macron certainly is a happy, confident man tonight. even if it becomes the next president he also has to think about the parliamentary elections which happen in june. >> thank you. as we're speaking, some reactions are coming up from french politicians, especially on the conservative side. candidatepublican francois fillon, he says the result is an earthquake for us. that's more interesting for around two -- for round two. another -- in the meantime let's cross to northern france to the national front headquarters. i'm imagining that the mood is rather festive, although maybe
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marine le pen was hoping that she would come out first. >> absolutely. when we started looking at polling for this election, marine le pen was far and away -- front runner, far me a lot of behind bullying -- booing. the people here are watching french tv. that is where they saw the announcements of the first round provisional results. then why moan is currently speaking. hamon is currently speaking. macron wasooed when speaking. at the exact moment we found out the results there was a real singing --of chance,
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of cheers, singing. mitigated jubilant atmosphere here. we will have to wait and see what marine le pen has to say when she speaks up a little later. >> we have some reaction coming in to her victory in second place. some are saying that her projects will, quote, cause chaos. this is what we are really going to see her come under tight scrutiny. >> indeed. i think it is going to be interesting debate. emmanuel macron is very much the centrist candidate. marine le pen has been honing her far right message for quite a few years, working on the heartland issues of security, immigration, fighting terrorism. quite a few supporters here this evening. those really are the issues they keep mentioning to me time and time again.
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they want france to close its borders, to stop militants coming in from foreign countries and bringing in arms. a lot of people here want to see france leave the european union. marine le pen has promised at least six months of negotiation with european union with france's position on it than a referendum for the french people. we do know there has been growing anti-european sentiments here in france ever since the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 and every problem the euro currency has said. there is a lot of the stalled here for the franc currency. >> we have to cut you off because the socialist candidate is speaking right now. we have to defeat the national front and we have to defeat the extreme right. by voting for emmanuel macron.
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is not ammanuel macron man of the left, and he is certainly not entitled to represent the left, i still make a very clear, total distinction between eight lyrical necessary and -- between a political necessary and an enemy of the republic. this is no time for liberty. no time for levity. -- no time for levity. the struggle goes on. i am already thinking of those who voted for us. i will never leave you, never abandon you, because you represent the hope of the left. it is not only the duty of the but i know where i come from and i know why i struggle. i will always continue speaking to the intelligence of the great
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french people. today, therefore, long live the republic, and tomorrow, long live the left. thank you. have the socialist candidate benoit hamon addressing his supporters. a bit of a tough pill for him to swallow. these estimates -- these are estimates of course that have taken on initial vote tallies. he got just only over 6%. >> this is a historical defeat. he took responsibly -- responsibility for a. interestingly he called upon his supporters to vote for emmanuel macron in the second round as he was speaking. we have seen in number of conservative politicians also calling for a vote in favor of emmanuel macron, well national
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front officials are calling on more votes for marine le pen, including coming from francois fillon's own camp. we're seeing things shifting to really prepare for the second round. , you areto ask you hoping the french would vote the right wages before 8:00. are you satisfied? -- i am say that i against populism, so i'm glad that we don't have two populist members at the top. in the end today, what i'm not happy with his this will be a default victory. -- thed have taken analysis i made before, for marine le pen to get 34% votes in the first round considering her position, and over 30% abstention rate in order for her to be a mechanic in the second round.
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the way it plays out and the free -- in the elections, i think it becomes a default victory. everyone will route behind the other one because there is really only one sensible choice for appropriate voting. the same time we are not voting for someone we necessarily believe in or know he's going to do. that's where my disappointment comes in. >> we're talking about this is a big shakeup, an earthquake considering the big parties are not there. ishe mentioned, macron pretty much the only centered one. as france voted really for more the same? >> i think that is the result. of course he has a slightly different policy, except we are not quite sure what it is. we will have to see how that goes. maybe at some level we have is he is not part of the institution, and that he is obviously a newer candidate within that. you hopefully take it as an
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opportunity to break down some of the old-fashioned molds we have had. it is allreat but about the branding culture and how it works. -- you'reabout macros gonna make it. a program came one month before the first round. people vote because there is -- maybe it is new or maybe it is not. but if you look at what he is ande, and, it is holl he is very low in the public opinion. you have to look at the psychology of the french people and say what is wrong with you? oks fine, think hollande was
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for five years, but if you want change issue not choose emmanuel macron. it is part of the populist movement we see all over the world in your. >> -- in europe. >> the estimate for our partner puts emmanuel macron with 23.7% ahead after round one. marine le pen with 21.7%. 2% difference between the candidates. i would like to add that some other polling institutes within tied at 23%. that does not change the fact that they both qualify for round two. i just want to add this as an element of information. that being said, marine le pen was certainly hoping for more. >> she certainly was. i would like to come back to the positive -- am more
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victoryhe macron perhaps in a more positive light than you do. in a sense that is not to say -- in part you are right, but it think there are other factors involved. i think it is probably unfair to hollande's --n is you could argue that and objective ways but he did resign and annoyed a lot of people when he did what he did when he resigned from the government and so on. that the initial surge of his popularity was about doing something modern and different and breaking a lot of this blockstopping society. i think to a certain extent, the fussiness over his program was that he was kind of trapped in a
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way where he could not really come out with a program as he was standing on a tightrope that he wanted -- he was neither left or right or was both left and right and try to develop a program that did not see him told too far in one direction or the other. to a certain extent it is true ambiguitiesave been and ambivalence about what exactly is his program. now it is make your mind up time. he has to come out with a program. the question is that he was helped in a sense with his position between right and left. suspect that what he wants foregoingore modernization than we see at the moment. i think that the campaign and
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where his position was in that campaign stop him from doing it. hopefully we will now see it. >> he comes across as someone who tries very hard to please. >> but it worked. >> it worked. but the people on the left, a lot dislike him intensely. the people on the right find him far too wishy-washy and left-wing. he tries to please everyone, in some ways pleases no one. but has please enough people to do extremely well. back to going to cross claire williams who is with the emmanuel macron supporters. what you have for us? >> i'm with the campaign advisor. he is an american in paris. how do you feel? >> it is just overwhelming. i worked on 45 campaigns in my life. this might be the most exciting i have ever been a part of.
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>> why is that? candidates were almost completely tied. the top two candidates not being part of a traditional political party. this is by far the most exciting election i have ever been a part of and we're just getting started. >> what is next? ofluckily we have an army volunteers who have been trained to go door-to-door to convince voters were hesitating whether or not to vote or who to vote for to convince them with sincerity, information and humanity to vote for a france that is not closed. a france that is democratic. a france that is open to the world. and i think that marcon will win if we keep mobilizing. >> you are not worried about the parliamentary elections in june? >> it's a big challenge. but i think you'll see a tectonic plate of all the parties are shifting. we have 250,000 members who are ready to make history and to
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forge new territory. we have 15,000 new candidates. i think we're going to compete very strongly. >> thank you very much. that was a campaigner for the movement. very optimistic and positive about the next steps for emmanuel macron. >> thank you. obviously some inspiration from the obama campaign. how much truth is there in us? french politics are obviously totally different from american politics, but this kind of grassroots movement, mobilizing has worked. this is not the only reason emmanuel macron made it but a clearly made a part. >> we were all told he had eight telephone conversation last week -- they assumed it would do his campaign is good. i wonder if obama gave him tips about getting the vote out. everybody feared that macron's report merv orn
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-- a large majority of whom are young people, but many people thought after brexit, will they actually vote? clearly they have with enough numbers to give them a victory. the other thing is he is usually popular among french experts who can vote and have voted in large numbers. he is enormously popular in london and in new york and various places. he is seen as someone who is young and can get business back going in france. that i think has been enormously helpful. >> 1.3 million french nationals abroad. that makes up about 2%. when you see the numbers here, it does have an impact. >> absolutely. >> quick question. do movingle pen forward to convince voters to get on her side? >> beyond the brexit road. has beennews is macron
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positioning self -- himself as pro-european. there will not be a question of who to vote for. your will be the center of the program. remove pan will go further in the process of promising more by borders,ut, closing and also putting security and religion back on the table, which is an easy win for macron because he is more of a business side and money. as you said, he is very popular with ex-pats. that's good news. it's about branding. marine le pen, she is on the side of trump, putin. macron is the new justin trudeau. >> just a quick add-on to what alexis said. this is one of her disadvantages.
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the french do not want to leave the eurozone. majority, even though europe annoys them, they don't want to leave the eu. if she pushes for this -- and you can see in the run-up to the first round she started actually diminishing the references to the eu and the euro, and giving the idea that maybe these -- the problem now is she will be forced into this by the most pro-european candidate which i think will be a real disadvantage to her because she will have to push for something that the french in their majority are not in favor of. as we were speaking, we have seen a number of leading conservative politicians lending their support to the middle macron for round two. we have also seen the socialist prime minister formally call for socialist voters to support emmanuel macron.
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candidate benoit hamon. they also said we need to vote for macron. this gives an argument to marine le pen. the whole system is against me. macron is the elite. >> i could not agree with you more. he is part of it. he comes from the hollande administration. he is the institution. he is the representation. one thing i think is interesting is what is happening on social media. at the end of the day a lot of this mobilization we saw came from younger people. i plugged it deeply into what is help from ath
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company looking at with the younger people are doing and how engaged were they with what was being said. le pen have far greater engaged audiences, which is a single of engagement. macron, on the list of i the a -- of all the criteria we use is not number one in any of them. he has half the followers on twitter and much lower type of engagement because he's what? right now he is not le pen. and again, we will be voting for not somebody. the problem is i'm not going to vote for them. i like a little bit of this. you have to the more strategic about how you're going to vote. it's not like, i love this person. a little of that, but mostly not that. what is interesting is the
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fact that we have seen emmanuel macron really tried to distance himself. we have seen attempts in the 18% in 2007.t there we have this totally new experiment. everyone is criticizing him, but if there is no major accident he is the next president. >> some would suggest that because there are only the 19% for the mainstream right-wing candidate. that is pretty much all marine le pen can pick up and that will not be enough. >> it is likely fillon will also go on to support macron. >> the huge majority of those will go to macron. it looks as though -- it looks unlikely that she will win. >> will she be able to perhaps once again talk about how will
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he go about governing? that's a weakness for him. >> it's a weakness for her as well. neither of them have a party behind them. neither can count on a majority. he at least might be able to get together some sort of governing coalition. it is very unlikely she will. no party is going to support her. that is going to be a major weakness for her. the fact she does not have a parliamentary majority. so whenever she represents might not come into being same way we have seen donald trump say i will do this, this and this. at the end of the day he didn't congress behind him. at the end of the day she would be french national assembly behind her and it does not look like that will happen. >> what is incredible is that emmanuel macron -- if i asked you today, could you tell me who is going to be is premised or if he wins? nobody knows. it was not on voters minds
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today. >> there is only him. a lot of people around and a lot of intelligence around, we see theground movement -- , theicians around him former defense minister -- who's guy fighting to be prime minister? willie the coalition last long enough for things to happen? i think marine le pen, even if she doesn't win, she won a big part of what is the french right tonight. it's sad but true. i think they will open more to other currents that might decide
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to join bring le pen depending on -- join marine le pen. >> just a reminder if you're just tuning in it is about 8:30 in the french capital and we have a clear that share. two candidates have made it through to the second round based on estimates. polls have closed. in an electron coming in first at 23.7%. read le pen coming in at 21.7%. this ahead of friends off alone -- these figures will change slightly as the full results come in. we're going to cross to francois so long -- fillon. mr. fillon: i
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