tv Washington Journal Abraham Denmark CSPAN January 6, 2018 8:02am-8:38am EST
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i found the decision-making process enormous lee challenging and enormously satisfying. the opportunity to resolve disputes, large and small -- they all matter to somebody -- of large political public significance, and that is a very satisfying role. >> watch "after words sunday night att 9:00 p.m. eastern on booktv. >> "washington journal" continues. now is abrahams denmark, the asia program director at the wilson center. a belligerent tweet exchange between president and north korean leader kim jong-un, not the first one we have seen this past year. abraham, thank you so much for joining us. let's start out with the announcement this week, that
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u.s. and south korea would delay a newry exercises as communication has open up between north and south korea. talk about that a little bit. what does it mean? guest: this all grew out of a speech that kim jong-un, the north korean leader, gave to commemorate the new year, in which he trumpeted his accomplishments, as he said, establishing north korea as a nuclear state, but also calling koreaproved ties to south , in part calling for enhanced communications with south korea, and specifically pointing to the upcoming winter olympics, which will be held in february. host: these exercises are held fairly regularly between the u.s. and south korea. whether they normally entail, and from a tactical standpoint,
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is there any issue or effect of delaying the? guest: the united states and south korea hold several exercises every year. some larger than others. usually in the spring, the combined exercises are usually quite large. one is a field exercise. the other is a command exercise. and it does not have any real tactical effect. what it does do is it shows that and we some flexibility, are able to have the exercises, it ensures that all military forces are ready to defend south korea, but it also sends a deter north korea and also that our militaries are there and are capable. host: how does pyongyang see these exercises? guest: they cast them as whichsals for invasion,
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is not what they are, which are defensive exercises. bothlaying them guest room for the olympics to go off without any korea provocation, but also to enable a chance for north and south to talk and hopefully for north korea and the united states to talk a little as well. host: let's look a little more on that point, this from the "washington post," says president trump and south korean moon have agreed to postpone in an effort to .e-escalate tensions trump and moon discussed their options thursday in a phone call. the white house state in the statement that moon and trump agreed 2-d conflict -- to deconflict the olympics.
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the statement of what is saying that the exercises are postponed. how does this jive with the tweets, saying his button is bigger than kim jong-un's? are these competing messages coming out of the united states? guest: there are competing messages coming from the united states, and the president a great degree of skepticism about diplomacy, saying that secretary tillerson was wasting his time. now that north and south are going to have high-level communications, president trump is taking credit for that, and that it could not have taken place without his strong position. he also said the talks are a good thing, even though if you'd is before, representative ambassador haley stated that the united states is very skeptical about those talks. mixedre are a lot of
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messages, but i think the general attitude in washington is skepticism, but at the same time a bit of a hope that something good comes out of this. right.ll we have been joined by abraham denmark, asian program director alsoe wilson center, former deputy secretary of defense for east asia. he is breaking down the flurry of relations between the u.s. and north korea, especially in advance of next month's olympics in south korea. democrats can call (202) 748-8000.republicans (202) 748-8001. and independents (202) 748-8002. you mentioned these talks that are going to be happening between north korea and south korea. " has more on times that, saying south korea responded to an overture from the north and propose holding high-level talks between the countries on their border next week. north korea's leader, kim jong-un, as suggested on monday
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that the country's open dialogue on easing military tensions and the possibility of the north participating in the winter olympics in the south, even as he noted that he now has a nuclear button on his desk. how unusual -- have we seen these type of opportunities between the north and south before? guest: these talks have actually happened historically fairly regularly. the last was in 2015 after a series of incidents along the dmz, which were cut out after south korea extended proliferation against an industrial complex. there were talks prior to the 1988 olympics, the last time the olympics were held in south korea. there were also talks before other olympics. in fact, the north korean and south korean teams walks ceremonies opening both in sydney and in athens.
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venueympics has been a for inter-korean dialogue before , but there is a great deal of isertainty as this dialogue related to the missile program. host: what can we expect out of these talks? what is the best case scenario that will come out of the? guest: the best case scenario is they will create a gap for it to happen without a problem for created aa while also space for diplomacy to occur on the broader issues affecting north and south korea, and potentially even giving a window for north korea and the united states to actually talk about the key issues -- the nuclear program and the mitchell program -- missile program. host: what things could possibly go wrong? the model of u.s. forces in korea is tied because of that
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concern that things could go wrong very quickly. of course, the primary possibility is that north korea would do something provocative, either a missile test, nuclear test, or some other belligerent action that undermine the diplomatic effort. host: we are talking with abraham denmark of the wilson center about the recent developments between the u.s. and north korea relations ahead on the month's olympics korean peninsula. brian is calling from iowa. go ahead. you are on. caller: i called it earlier. i wanted to get on during the marijuana discussion. i would like to party with clinton from alaska. and john who call it from illinois, i grew up two blocks from the eisenhower expressway. host: all right, brian, we are talking about north korea now.
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i want to keep our conversation to that and remind our viewers that democrats can call (202) 748-8000. republicans, (202) 748-8001. and independents, (202) 748-8002 . abraham, i will get you were thoughts on a piece in today's "washington post," which points out that president trump's aids are calling his button tweet part of a plan that comes to north korea. " presiden tweetsent trump's
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host: but trump administration official said there has been no shift in the president -- no shift, and that the president's language reinforces the government strategy of "maximum pressure" to address the rising threat from north korea. so this is part of a continued approach from the white house it shookthe fact that folks, including in our own department of defense, state department, as well as our allies. guest: i think it is not new that the president's tweets are not coordinated throughout the agency before they are put out. i think that has been fairly well known for a while. i do think that it has been fairly consistent with the trump administration's policy in that making sure everybody believes that the possibility of conflict is still valuable, and the
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suggesting to be that possibility, however, i find it very hard to believe that the president would tweet about the size and power of the button on his desk. spirituallyo be compatible with the pressure rather than something specific with the plan. how might that affect them in any way, the relationship between the u.s. and south korea? i know they work together not just in these military exercises, but talk about how it might affect the relationship and potential of o-matic options to north korea -- potential diplomatic options to north korea. guest: it is a very tricky issue trump administration has been so focused on maximizing pressure with north korea, there is a concern that
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these sorts of talks would be a way to reduce pressure. primarily because president moon parallel with other negotiations, they will not go too far. i think the concern of washington but overall, trust in our alliances winning out. host: we have a call from jackson in connecticut. one of our younger viewers. you are nine years old. you have a question for abraham
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so this certainly plays a role. so we would be very much involved in a while variety of different contingencies related .o security in east asia host: jim is on our independent line from florida. caller: the wargames i think should definitely go on. commonress is very thread have got the pressure on them that way. china is important. they use north korea to threat. if they ever launched with north korea. we would have to launch and north korea would stand by and tell us one actually china is very involved. china just uses that. look at venezuela. we are looking at north korea,
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and china is literally taking over venezuela. they actually control their oil for, what, the next 20 years? and all of this artificial news about we are on a brink of war with north korea, it is just part of the deception policy. thank you very much. host: go ahead with your reaction. guest: sure. i agree that the exercises should go on. what theyproposed called a freeze, in which the united states would freeze military exercises, and north korea would freeze military testing. we see military exercises very important to military readiness and to maintain deterrence against a north korean threat. , was, as everybody knows
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very much involved in the korean war in the 1950's. china is concerned about instability in north korea. china is concerned that north korea may start a war. and china is also concerned that the united states may trigger instability. has been ambiguous as to how it would react to a conflict, but i think you are exactly right, that china is a very important player that should not be ignored in the north korea issue as well as variety of other issues around the world. host: the next call on our independent line, you are on what abraham denmark. caller: you know, north korea is an independent country. you can see a little bit about why they feel the way they do because the united states has nuclear weapons, and then they are telling us that we cannot have nuclear weapons. and then with the overthrow of
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thatm hussein, i am sure you may try to do the same with us. what do you think? north korea, as you said, is an independent country. program has been part of a multiple national security resolutions. the entire international community sets north korea should not have nuclear weapons. i appreciate what you said with saddam hussein because north korea supported both saddam hussein and cut off the in libya. as an example of what happened -- qaddafi in libya. as an example of what can happen when they support the united states, they ended up disowned again. so those are good examples about why they have a nuclear program,
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what is to determine attacked, invasion, and an attempt to overthrow the regime in north korea. unfortunately, they have major menace progress -- have made tremendous progress. host: so kim jong-un has suggested that north korean athletes travel through the demilitarized zone and march together in the opening ceremony, something they have done before but not recently. what do you think of the likelihood of that happening is, said?at message with that guest:guest: i actually think having some sort of cooperation between the two koreas is actually quite positive. crossing the tmz is not a common entrance, but it has happened in the past. i do think it is possible that the athletes, when they march
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together in the opening ceremonies, as i mentioned, they did that in previous olympics, but the real question is after the olympics come after the paralympics in march, if the situation has changed fundamentally, if there is a window for diplomacy, or if things go back the way they were with increasing tension and fiery rhetoric. host: stevens calling in on our republican line from florida. caller:. good morning thank you for taking my call. all donald trump at hillary clinton -- i think a lot of people do not like the behavior of donald trump, but they like his actions and what he is doing. i think a lot of people liked hillary clinton's behavior, but they did not like her actions, what she did. i hope c-span stays only little, not leaning left or right, so we can come to this channel and find real news as opposed to the other media outlets that are acting like a bunch of school
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kids on a schoolyard. one question to be gentlemen -- don't you think the trump administration is playing backup, good cop with north korea, and he is the backup, and tillerson is the good cop? and it is working. that is all i have to say. you. guest: some folks have certainly suggested that, that the president is the bad cop, and secretary tillerson is the good cop. the challenge is, however, that they are not equal players. it is the president's ultimate the presidentf is actively undercutting the good cop, in your formulation, it complicates that dynamic. i have found that consistency in foreign policy rhetoric has traditionally been more effective in diplomacy. in terms of progress, though, i think there is a lot that remains to be seen.
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moon jae-in came into power, and that was in the first year of the trump administration. makeer we are able to progress with north korea remains to be seen. certainly we made progress with china, enforcing sanctions more effectively. we had stronger un security council resolutions than we have had before, but north korea has been able to up their nuclear capability. host: and we are talking with abraham denmark about the situation in north korea and u.s. and north korean relations. again, democrats can call (202) 748-8001. republicans, (202) 748-8000.and independent s, (202) 748-8002. now, a little later in the show, we will be talking about the pentagon papers. daniel ellsberg, who leaked the pentagon papers that in 1971, said in an article, he talked a little bit about north korea
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because he was a senior nuclear planner. he writes in the "financial times" that he believes trump has largely created the crisis by saying north korea will not become a nuclear weapon state on his watch. trump said i will not let it , but according to ellsberg, it already happened before you take office. he said this is the first time since the cuban missile crisis we are threatening to attack a country equipped with nuclear weapons. are openly talking about assassination teams, as all full-scale invasion exercises, about the decapitation of north korea's leadership. ." what issanity pur your reaction to that
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? guest: if you think about the it, more at the end of broadly, i disagree with the point that this is a crisis of president trump's creation. north korea has been pursuing nuclear weapons and ballistic , andles for decades president trump has the unfortunate timing of being in power when these capabilities are coming into fruition. so this is a crisis many decades in the making. however, i do think that president trump's actions have intensified the degree of tension in the relationship and has close off some avenues of potential diplomacy. his refusal to accept north korea's nuclear power is actually quite consistent with his predecessors as well. whereallenge, of course,
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his predecessors saw diplomacy as an effective tool, whereas president trump has described those as a waste of time and has really only identified military force as what he sees as a valuable solution. host: all right, jack has called in from idaho on our democrat line. good morning. caller: good morning. i have a comment and a question. theomment is with regard to carefully calibrated strategy that the trump administration he referenced has stated that mr. trump has taken with his big .utton tweet it was reported last night that five minutes before he tweeted friends," to show he watches each morning, that they had just broadcast a story
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about the button that kim jong-un had on his desk. "fox avid watcher of and friends," the president often tweets in response to it. my question to you is related to your comment about stability and consistency being a better approach in diplomacy. gerontologist, and she works with patients with dementia, and she has been watching mr. trump and notices sign after sign, the repetitions in his statements, the slurring of words, the difficulty with memory, the impulsivity, that really seems to strongly indicate that this is a man who is in mental decline. host: i want to give abraham a chance to respond to that.
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what do you think about that, specifically in terms of having nuclear capability? guest: when i refer to the consistency message, i will refer to the consistency messaging across government, especially on the north korea issue, in which senior officials in the trump administration have been making very different, it's about what the policy is. even before the button issue, tillerson gave remarks in washington suggesting the u.s. was open, after which several other u.s. government officials contradicted that. even when president trump gave a speech that was preplanned, prewritten, even that had some ambiguity and uncertainty about exactly what is u.s. policy. host: some are proposing legislation that would limit nuclearrump's
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capability in part because of concerns they raise about his mental stability. is that a valid point to be worried about? guest: i will not comment on the president's mental state. i am not an expert on these things. but i do think there is a point inbe made in the legislation that the way we do nuclear and control,mand that it grew out of the cold war in which we needed to have the president's -- the president needed to have the ability to fire nuclear weapons very rapidly. the question of whether we should use our weapons first, if we are not retaliating against a nuclear strike, that congress may want to have a voice. i think it is important. gary is calling from jack arkansas. caller: china has always seen
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north korea as a staging ground for the invasion of china. and japansouth korea taiwan --state -- and as a ground for their invasion. remember, they were actively and successfully invaded in the last century and attacked in 1905. opinion ofchina's this as a staging ground for their invasion still viable? guest: that is a terrific question, actually. china has traditionally seen north korea as a buffer in between china and u.s. forces. and korea was previously a venue for invasion. the challenge, of course, for china is china has been invaded
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in so many ways and directions that the korean peninsula unfortunately is not a very unique example there. there is a debate right now in china about how to think about the korean peninsula. some people in china are saying long-range age of pursuit and strike, the idea of a buffer state is no longer valid. i do not think it is a settled debate, but certainly this idea of meeting buffers between china and the hostile outside world is, in many circles in china, seen as a bit of an outdated concept. leaning morea's toward south korea and others. caller. have another
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caller: good morning. i think we are only speaking to half the problem with this rogue nation. the cyber crimes, the crimes against his own people, international theft. all of this has to come into the same conversation, to my belief. it is important to remember the nature of this regime. this is not a normal country. deprivation of their people, which would be a top priority for basically every other country in the world, is not a top concern for kim jong-un. for the elite. their primary concern is their own power and their own access to necessary resources. issues, the rights cyber attacks that you mentioned toore, i think all speaks
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the very problematic nature of the regime itself, and that is a critical point to remember when you are thinking about negotiations and strategies related to north korea. denmark, asianam program director at the wilson center. you can finally wen wilson -- yu can find the wilson center denmark onabraham twitter. guest: thank you. host: coming up, tell us what policies are on your mind. democrats can call (202) 748-8000. republicans, (202) 748-8001.and independent s, (202) 748-8002. the first, this week's "newsmakers" interview the senate democrat campaign chair for 2018, senator chris van hollen. he spoke about the approach. senator, when you start making priorities, do your defending in the
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these 10 democratic senators up for reelection, or do you try to go on offense in places like arizona, texas, and tennessee? sen. van hollen: we think we can do both. you have got a lot of incumbents, and the reason they have been successful in difficult states is they are always focused on the people in their state. there hathat has been their northstar. we will work very hard to help them. most of all in knowing what to do in their states. but we will also look for every opportunity out there, and there are a number of pickup opportunities. and this is also a cycle where we have seen, as in the case in alabama, where no state is safe for republicans. >> following up on that, where do you think you can have that beyond the raises that are --
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races that are already emerging? we have got to: work hard to make sure that they continue to succeed. there are eight republican seats. alabama was of course a seat that we recently picked up. and all of those eight going to be in play. we have candidates today in every one of those eight seats, with the exception of mississippi, where i have talked to some very strong candidates. all of them are strong potential states. having said that, obviously the state of nevada is a big pickup opportunity for the democrats. arizona very much in play. but i would not discount any of the other states. we have really good candidates in all of them. is, a former two-time governor of tennessee
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