nationally, you mentioned why walmart did so well, i think the reason walmart did so well is they were so efficient. out how to create a great store that was really efficient in the past those savings on to consumers. out with your big book, "debunking the myth of small myth." we thank you for the conversation this morning. we are going to bring you over to the brookings institution. africa security initiative is hosting a discussion on the future of somalia. thank you all for watching.

michael: good morning. i'm michael o'hanlon. you're going to talk about somalia. in all of its manifestations. with a particular eye on security conditions and political transitions and by thatchallenges faced country of 11 million and the horn of africa. i have a distinguished panel here. us and discuss matters. then we will go to you for the second half of the program for your questions. stephenme is ambassador schwartz, a retired u.s. ambassador of foreign service officer, who was united states ambassador to somalia through last fall. spanning both recent presidencies in somalia, as well as both recent presidencies in the united states. he was also a foreign service officer and ambassador at another -- and a number of

african countries and really pleased to have him here. on a personal level, he was a peace corps volunteer in africa in the early 1980's. in my case, in drc. in his, cameron. to his left is my good friend and co-conspirator, vanda felbab-brown, who in addition to her book on wildlife trafficking, has studied africa in many dimensions with her ongoing focus on transnational crime and's urgency, social conflict, and other related matters. she is one of the most distant wish and intrepid and brilliant researchers in this kind of work anywhere in the world. and really one-of-a-kind scholar who i am proud to be colleagues with and who has done field research this year in somalia that will and for many of her views. finally, to her left is laundry who is--landry signe, from cameron and is a rubenstein fellow at brookings, a two-year

visiting fellowship in the global economy and development program which is another one of the research programs at brookings where the africa growth initiative is focused and located. matters ofon development and economics. we are very happy to partner can in thehenever we foreign policy program, thinking about our africa security initiative. let me add a preformed of orientation and background and then get to the experts who know this country much better than i, to give us updates on where things stand. as you are aware, somalia remains a troubled country. in oneessentially been degree or another of chaos and civil war ever since the former was no longer president and depose from office in 1991. had athat time, we have great deal of challenge in this part of the world, including the tragic black hawk down episode in 1993 in bill clinton's

presidency. that led to the withdrawal of american forces by 1990 four. there has been one degree or another of chaos and civil conflict since that conflict. there are pockets of hopefulness as well. for example, in some of the northern regions of somalia there are a ton of its regions, somaliland and the food lands better functioning as many states. there is some tension between them and mogadishu about what their status is and who should be calling the shots. that has been one of the issues we have been reading about in recent years. also, there is a government in mogadishu run by the current president, mohammad, who succeeded the previous president. to president mohammad's. but they were chosen by a proper process. there was a democratic transition. there were a lot of shady allegations of corruption. it was not a nationwide poll. it was essentially impossible to

have such an election at a national level because of security conditions. nonetheless, there were parliamentarians who had previously been chosen through various kinds of quasi-democratic processes who selected the new president. there has been an element of hopefulness. there is a large african union deployment, a peacekeeping mission of some 20,000 soldiers, nda has explained, has its downsides and challenges and weaknesses. but nonetheless continues to try to stabilize parts of the country. in many ways, things are better as i understand, since the worst of the worst periods in the 1990's and thereafter. it is a troubled country. but it is a country with an amazing ds press around the world. somalis are everywhere. very entrepreneurial. there is successful in this country. there are only 11 million of them in somalia and yet they are a powerful force on the face of

the african continent and african politics. i buy this part of the world a tragic and hopeful part of the broader confident -- continent. without further a do, let me turn things over to ambassador schwartz. what i would like to begin is ask a broad question and then you give us background and your experience. i would like to hear about what you did over your tenure, how you saw it the political transition in salon -- and somalia and how you size things up-to-date? stephen: thank you, michael. thank you to you guys for coming. i think somalia deserves a good bit of attention in policy circles here. and that we should be paying this kind of attention to the circumstances and let the u.s. could do. real privilege to serve as u.s. ambassador to the first since 1991. it signaled a continual uptick in u.s. engagement with somalia. consistent with somali

political authorities. there, i think somalia government and society was a bit stuck. the president had been there for over three years, he was the third prime minister. corruption is a huge problem. there is a huge lack of social trust going back at least to the early 90's. if not beyond. is rife with the government authorities controlling a miniscule portion of the country in reality. and even that is only because of amazons. the african union forces presence. ande is a very protracted unprecedented come up sort of political elect oral mechanism

being put in place by the smalley's with a lot of help from the united nations. in the process, that unfolded to elect the parliament, was highly imperfect. but then the parliament itself acted very responsibly. they removed the location of the vote for president to a hanger with no side rooms where corruption could happen. it was all live streamed. no cell phones could be brought in the room. voted individually all on camera out of 22 cameras -- candidates, they elected president mohammed. many people thought he was a smart -- a strong candidate. yet had a reputation of getting things done. he was seen as a modest man.

someone who fought corruption. plannedt from the sub that had been the last two it signaled a dramatic shift and a positive one for somalis. he was a candidate and was the runner-up. power as did his predecessor, and there was this great inauguration where from a show is that they like turn and the two former presidents were standing behind him. that doesn't happen everywhere. that is a heck of an achievement. lot, as het says a pointed out. the process itself was not comprehensive and universal. although people from every part of the country were able to vote for parliament in some numbers. they did the best they could.

not only was he, is he, a capable and attractive leader, but the government in somalia, i think to this day, is still seen as legitimate. more or less. it is what they have, i think they think it is their government. .t hasn't performed for them there is a huge lack of capacity which can't be fixed overnight or not with foreign aid, not with anything. it is something that has to be built. they have no money. in 2016, the federal government 170 million dollars, less than the salary cap for the washington national. that's it. you effectively have six city states. with mogadishu and the other regional capitals. is.it is what it it is a photograph that doesn't look very good.

it over time, over the last 15 years, there is clear progress. today -- and of the somalia of today is more hopeful than the one of 10 years ago or 20 years ago. , i really value the chance to lead the u.s. engagement with somalia. i think we achieved a good bit. we have the capacity to do even more. i hope the u.s. does that. michael: fantastic. thank you for setting the scene so well and for your service. hasany hope i think somalia is benefited largely from what you have done and other americans and the african union mission, and of course the somalis most of all themselves. vanda, i want to turn to you. you have been following somalia for a long time. you have been there many times. i admire your commitment and bravery in doing so. but i also know you shared some

of the ambassador's views on the progress, but also that you are very concerned about the number of challenges today and the potential for reversal, the potential for things to go in the wrong direction and there is a long ways to go. how would you see things and how would you set the scene? anda: thank you, mike, thank you ambassador, for your comments. let me focus on where we are with the security situation today. in some of the timelines that we are potentially coming up to and how that inner meshes with the political situation. as mike mentioned, i was there in december, one of the reasons regularhere, apart from updates and regularly going there is a project for the united nations universities on amnesty and the second -- the vectors program. this has a number of case studies. i am writing the

nigerian-somalia one. they will be public in may and will be on a launch of some of the findings. i will not focus on those issues right now. it will be for the other events that i hope you will attend. but those issues inevitably intersect with political developments which is what i want to focus on today. whererse, depending on one sucks the baseline, one has a different assessment of where we are in the security situation. compared to 2009 when shabbat was dominating mogadishu or compared to 2006 when if european forces were raging a resurgence he against the previously islamic area. the situation today is much better. both in terms of security and in terms of politics.

thiser, just today, morning, there were several attacks and mogadishu, including two bomb a taxpayer fortunately this time, they do not kill many people. one of them took place very close to the international airport which is where about the entire international presence is located and where most of offices operate. these are not rare occurrences. some sort of military action in mogadishu takes places every day. most of it is just assassination. i say just but this would be very problematic and very disturbing and many a country. they are often alleged to be isducted by al-shabab, that very problematic. a lot of security is conducted by other actors who are hired by politic -- by economic interests as well as by political acts.

al-shabab is only one of at 60 factors in somalia. somalia was not achieve peace unless it starts doing a much , but of courseg very much and her sex with the issue of power delegation, state formation, that the ambassador alluded to and mike will come back to. let me focus on shabbat. -- shabab. knows howe, no one many forces are there on an actual day. it continues to be very suboptimal level of communication between amazon and the somali government and amazon and international partners. lastve started seeing

year, withdrawals of forces, such as by ethiopia. and the moment the ethiopian over. took never announced in advance when they will withdraw, but what is happening for several months now is that when populations see them packing their bags, they start fleeing. we seeing new internal displacement but it is significant because the population is few. this intersects with the security crisis. fortunately, the worst of the famine was avoided. it could've been much worse. the international community and the somali government deserves credit for that. al-shabab, they did not prevent food distribution the same way they did in 2010 and 2011 which cost them legitimacy ability tore of an

distribute food. somalia has many large parts with a very intense, very significant food insecurity. sha,amazon forces leave shabab takes over in this or victimizing things that have existed. i have on purpose rephrased the sentence because the key problem nationzon and the somali army as they have no holding capacity. they are clearing operations of -- that have been installed in in6 and deployment remains with minimal interactions with the local population. nonetheless, even the areas on presence has some deterrent effect on shabab. --y return and

numbers are estimated around 3000 nonetheless, those numbers very. shabazz --n the less numbers diminished. nothe same time, shabab has experienced any ability to recruit or to conduct operations. it regular attacks amazon bases and attacks contingents. factapacity, despite the that the international community has funded of the level of 250 million a year for multiple is absolutely minimal. not only does it have no offensive capacity, it has no holding capacity. it is very -- barely capable on joining controls with amazon and

frequently does not. there are some 29,000 forces on the books, and many of those are widows, the elderly, so maybe that are 12,000 soldiers have some ammunition and have some level of capacity to perform on the battlefield. in december, the united states o suspended at support for the sna that generated a lot of attention in mogadishu up. i was there when that was unfolding. that was in my view, a good measure because the level of corruption that surrounds the sna has been really enormous with massive amounts of funding stolen, with salaries not paid, the president managed to reuse the level of the debt to two month spirit nonetheless, only ever two months that soldiers were paid.

are pretty much in similar shape. what it means in practice is that the somali forces as well and --on rely on local local militias and grand militias for holding the bases from al-shabab. absolutely keys deciding characteristics and its key defining misfortune is the level of hostility that dominate and really are redefining politics in the country. payingo one is formally the militias, although various intelligence services have their favorite subelements whom they may be giving money, the byitias essentially exist tradition on local communities, extorting local communities for iney, and often engaging

resources from rival clan militias. constantly creates entrenchment october -- opportunities for al-shabab and reasons for why al-shabab is still around. because more than any other entity in somalia, perhaps with previous iterations of ,slamists, like the islamic shop -- al-shabab has the possibility to be planned. it inserted itself into clan rivalries, its membership is solid. it has members from virtually every clan. it tends to appoint its merest to be from distant plans, not from local areas, so they don't engage in typical clan disk -- discrimination. it makes efforts to make its points on the basis of merit.

i have asked my somali friends for many years, every time this single question, why is it that it is only the icu and al-shabab manages to rise above clan politics which so debilitate the functionality of governance? which is so debilitate the somali parliament, the interactions between the accident -- the executive and somali argument? i have never heard a good answer. often i am not given any answer to that question at all other than, we don't know. that is one of the issues that somalia deeply needs to do. in reckoning with itself on how to overcome that issue. past, dramatic events have been unfolding in the political domain. political tension between various key political leaders, in this case, it has not been between the prime minister and the president as has often been the case for years.

this time, it is between the speaker of the house and the resulted that almost in small armed exchange that was averted. symptom of the constant challenges and how power is delegated. there are now six states. and one of the big product -- progress is since 2016 have been the formation of the constitution. it is not complete. many laws have been stuck and parliament for months or years at this point. nonetheless, some drafting has taken place. some parts have been approved. information, the formal creation of the middle states under way. there are six states but only two have been formalized, four are not legally formalized. major disagreements exist between mogadishu as to how economic and armed resources

will be divided. divisions,the clan it is very much intersecting with clan divisions is the issue of power delegations. elites from state levels are even suggesting that mogadishu should not be the capital, i very many surround theues situation. however, what i think is a different -- what is importantly different over the last eight months, is the old divisions powern levels over delegations, between mogadishu who controls mogadishu, who controls, now intersects with , middlele east division east dispute between saudi arabia and its allies. we are seeing that play out in

the context of somalia. the external environment which has never been benevolent force r somalia isu now compounded by the middle eastern conflagration, as well. my final point is that we need to appreciate that al-shabab remains deeply entrenched because of the deficiencies of government -- governance and government in somalia. one is a persistent discrimination against minority clans. exclusionary politics, politics that are deeply corrupt, but often the purpose of achieving political power is to illegally gain resources for oneself.

shabab nunnally manages to rise above clan rivalries, but also delivers justice that is not corrupt that might be harsh, but nonetheless is swift. it is predictable. that ire repeated once heard from my fieldwork of police officials who work in to al-shababng controlled areas, some of which andclose to mogadishu, shabbat deeply operates in mogadishu, it affects everyone. they go to mogadishu for distributor pollutions. these are police officials. no one trusts the judicial courts that are dominated by political clans, but are very corrupt. have often prefer to

things fixed by shabbat. even though al-shabab has prohibited many issues of liberties such as dress code. property dispute, because of shary, the rulings are often far better than in clan courts were women don't have a representation. they cannot address clan elders. it i very often males and can prevail to inherit property. better able tois deliver security such as for travel on roads. if you go on al-shabab roads from mogadishu to the border of kenya, you will face $1500. at the first checkpoint, you issue a receipt that you have paid your fee. you're not harassed afterward. women are not raped during th

at. if you travel on roads that are controlled by clan militias, you will pay up to $5,000, you will pay multiple times and the risks of rape and robbery are prevalent. that means that crucial businesses, economic businesses thatoperate in mogadishu are behind some of the very sensible things that have gone up in the bill -- in the city are using shabab for the business arid understanding this war economy as well as how it intersects with the war economy is very crucial for understanding conflict diamond. -- dynamics. out of these governance issues in much better ways, we will see some aversion, some iteration of al-shabab just as we have seen before. problem for the federal government is it does

not control, it doesn't have much capacity to collect taxes. when i spoke with businessmen in somalia about their paying taxes, they would say, why to mogadishu taxes to the federal government, but does not give us protection, but does not provide education to the labor force, but doesn't provide roads or public services? say, howt officials could we do these things if we cannot collect taxes? very want to add on a significant point, as mike mentioned, i have been there multiple times. -- one of them raised something that distressed me. we were talking about where we are in the trajectory, the

expectations people have to have, the immense capacity limitations of the government. a very brave woman who was a posting -- he was opposing shaaban was fighting for women andts against al-shabab government and justice said, you know what, maybe at the end of the day, some al-shabab presence is good. i feel that if al-shabab is fully defeated or somehow integrated into the political process, we will see the country once again disintegrate into civil war. i found that an extremely discouraging and depressing comment. i said surely that is not the case. surely the horrors of the late 1990's, the early 2000's were so to beicant that this has avoided. everyone has to understand that. she said, no, i don't think the elite understands that. somalia's problem is still one

of extreme impunity. michael: thank you. despite the discouraging conclusion. still, very good history and explanation of where we are today. to ask for your thoughts. let me give a few words about our distinguished colleague. he is a man of the world. he was educated not only in his home country of cameron but in france and canada. he is a professor at the university of alaska and anchorage was -- which is a long way from cameron. washington feels like alaska much these days. something from sanford and components the alaska base. of pan africaues political economy, not so much somalia specifically. but broader, regional dynamics. i just wanted to invite you to offer whatever comments he would like to. before i do, let me say that one of the interesting dimensions, we have all been referring to

the african military operation, which is as vanda said, not without its problems, but has also been there for quite a well with 20,000 troops from a half countries, and yet stuck with the mission. other neighboring states for better and worse have stuck with the mission. ofis a fascinating example africans doing something to try to help one of their fellow nations. despite the imperfections along the way. maybe that is one aspect you want to comment on the let me give the floor to you, my friend. landry: thank you very much, mike. i am a fellow. hello, everyone. hello, everyone. good. speak about to somalia from a perspective. to other african

countries are internationally from the political, economic perspectives. i will start with the nature of the political regime. somalia has a score of seven out of seven in terms of civil liberties and political rights. which is the worst score a given country can have. translates the level of political participation, political competition, among other factors. we are still very far from strong improvement. it has not changed since 1999. about statek fragility, for example.

from 2006 2 2012 the most fragile stay in the world. 2012, it became the wickedest state. the limited ability of the state to provide basic public services , security, health, education. also speaking about that, the country ranks seventh in terms ofthe highest impact terrorism. not very far from countries such as iraq, afghanistan, syria, among others. we still have critical

challenges which need to be addressed. and of course, i think most of consider -- would challenges are definitely at the high level. , or evenof rough laws law,ing about the world by the law is to serve a few instead of ensuring that things are working well. for all the citizens. i could spend time on corruption but i think i will turn to economic perspective. some signs of see

hope. for example, according to the world bank report in 2017, the country is predicted to have a nominal annual growth between 5% and 7% in the medium term. of course, we have to adjust to inflation. it is still encouraging by the -- it is very slow. however, 17% of the population is under the age of 30. , 67% of the population [indiscernible]

those are easy targets for terrorist groups. to provide revenue to those to cover forer what the state cannot be doing. at per capita is estimated 435 u.s. dollars. this is important to mention. populationf the lives below the poverty line. really -- although we have seen improvements, it is still quite dramatic and challenging.

overreliance on limited funding, and added value. industryculture, the are almost inexistent after years of conflict. -- so manyynamic communities are very dynamic. people are making the economy working despite all the .onstraints however, things remain quite challenging. of course, many of the factors which affect the economy as a deliverer of insecurity, resources, capacity, we also spoke about the ability to collect taxes.

enthusiastic,as although. -- although, we are seeing signs of promise. will hope my colleagues have been extensively in the country much more than i have done, will be then discussing some of the challenges. you -- only focusing on somalia, but when comparing to other african countries, it is still at the bottom. how do we move from their? -- there? michael: thank you. i would like to follow up with a couple additional questions. i will do a different approach than i have often done. i will have the first round of questions to be from somalis or somalia americans, so be preparing your questions. maybe small faults or contributions. we will try to keep them brief and group if you together in the

first round before we come back to the panel. before i do that, i want to make sure that for those in the room who are generalists or those watching television who don't knows amalia details, we have more facts on the table. been of them have presented by these remarks from all three. ambassador schwartz, if i could play a lightning round of quick, factual questions. the amazon mission consists primarily of six different country groups. is that correct? stephen: five. michael: ethiopia, kenya. it used to have zambia? stephen: syria leon. michael: the mission has been there for -- stephen: 10 years. michael: is the un's peacekeeping mission or is it authorized by the u.n.? hybrid. no, it is a i think it is not an official u.n. mission. it is authorized by the african with logistical

support provided by the united nations. there is no other model like it. michael: shifting to somali politics, and the six states we have been hearing about, is one of those somaliland or is somaliland not recognized and considers itself distinct and separate? there is five federal member states, then there is a birdie or mogadishu and somaliland. you could count seven if you want. certainly seesu somaliland as one of the member states. somaliland seeks independence, but has not been successful. indeed, the battle between the speaker of the house and the president and prime minister was triggered by actions of , rejecting the notion

that somaliland or a subset -- sub level state can make that move without approval. in fact, the speaker went further and sought to pass a law that any foreign investment in any part of somalia would have to be authorized by the sub federal level without consulting the prime minister who opposed it. and it sought to impeach him. michael: the somaliland representatives parliament or is it you cutting? -- is it boycotting? stephen: they completely disregard mogadishu. there are many citizens or people from somaliland who personally were from somaliland or their parents of who are members of parliament, there is a somaliland portion or quota in the parliament. somalilandhe government would never recognize them as representing them.

michael: two more questions. and professor schwartz then i think i will cut myself off and go to you. if i have further thoughts i will bring them in. you both talked about, especially vonda, you talked about clans. i think it is worth underscoring that in somalia there are not different ethnic groups, there is one ethnic group. somali, you know, not just tribe or clan, but broader speaksan community which somali which is primarily sunni muslim, which has homogeneity in that sense. yet, you have talked about different clans. is there a way to break down the clan structure and understand the clan structure, or is it just so flexible and shifting that we can't really put our finger on that kind of a hierarchy or a broader taxonomy? ofda: you are opening a lot wasp nests here. one of them is the political

[indiscernible] there are some political scientists who would do clan-based identification as ethnicity. the element of ethnicity versus clans is the fact that identification with a clan, and there are hundreds of clans and sub clans and sub sub clans in for many people in somalia, is not for all, is the principal social organization. often in a way that is very exclusionary. it generates significant marginalization but there is little ability for many to experience political freedom, economic freedom, and social realization outside of the clans structure. or aclan exposes a woman, man, but particularly a woman, that woman and her children will

not have any ability to obtain protection or likelihoods. disregarding clan and elders breaking with glance, it is in our mostly costly for most people. less so for urban populations, but even in major urban spaces, even the capitals, that is the case. i want to finish by saying that you have a set of clans that are considered dominant plans, or super clans under which there is a lot of politicking and subdivision underneath. often, the more dominant plans that might be quite reluctant in toms of standing, tend restrict access to political power into two resources. but some of the clan identification gets very complex. i often cannot seek to engage about clan background, but sometimes people themselves are

not sure how many of the layers above them actually belong to what lineage with the splitting of the differentiation. michael: the civil war scenario you finished on, that specter of a complete breakdown which we all hope will never happen, but to the extent that it could, would it be largely fighting among these super clans or would it be more chaotic with dozens and hundreds of separate combatants? more anarchy? vanda: it would be both. i mentioned there are at least 60 armed actors in somalia. many of which are constituted along clans. they shopifts, between dominant plans and al-shabab. they shop around warlords. late 1990's, the early 2000's warlords or mid-1990's. but nonetheless, warlords

emphasize or deemphasize a clan identity, sometimes clan multiple, can be depending on the basis -- on the matter of particular political convenience. clan lines would play a significant line in that. that could still mean very fractured scenarios. i do hope that it was wrong. that the political leaders learned from its past horrors and terrible suffering to have more responsibility. michael: excellent. one must question from thme. getmore thing we need to clear before going to the audience is the relationship between al-shabab in the broader al qaeda and isis movements violenthe world, extremism broadly defined. we often hear a discussion of

linkages. but we also know that al-shabab is largely a local actor that operates and succeeds often with its ability to understand clan politics and somali society. how do you assess the al-shabab connection to the broader jihadist movement, whether it is called isis, al qaeda, or something else? stephen: thank you. al-shabab has maintained publicly and affiliation with al qaeda. internale been movements to try to affiliate with isis, and they have been rejected and put down brutally in a mini purge or civil war last twoabab over the or three years. there is a small isis element in the mountains. i don't know how successful it has been in growing out of the mountains. vanda: it hasn't. stephen: it hasn't?

a sub subnding beyond sub clan. it is there. it can be attractive. the idea can be attractive to some of the shabab members who are affected for recent clan or pay or whatever it is. itself is seen as a part of al qaeda. although i do not believe the relationship is very intimate. michael: very good. i would like to now go to you. let's take three or four questions, comments from somalis and smalley americans. but see how this experiment goes. we want to get your voices and. start in the front row. i see free-market we will take all of you and these three together before we come back to the panel. then we will have another round. tech. from virginia i would call myself american somali rather than somali american. michael: very good.

>> my question is very technical and somewhat pointed. it is to the ambassador. it seems you are talking much more about mogadishu rather than somalia. ago, there was something called peace dividends, a concept, whereby some planned of somaliland should be awarded for the piece of the maintained. clan is not necessarily a native thing. those two entities, i don't mean to lecture you, they bring people together and defeat terrorism and as long as him. i would like to speak about that. michael: great. after that it will be the gentleman behind him in the back

row. name is anis. i am the founder of a group based in washington dc. michael: how about one or two been questions? they need creative piece. somali people don't need peacemakers but they need peaceful people. whenever you need peace, you are not making peace. whenever an antelope, a small animal, antelope, whenever an antelope sees me, it runs, and

one man who says never hunt when i mean is that it never lands from that mistake and somalia. my question is why somalia? it has faced recent problems. has stability and good government based on election and democratization processes. somaliland sets an example for africa. administration see their achievements while the rest of somali [indiscernible] michael: let me ask you a -- hown since we ha

many people live in somaliland? 3.8 million two 4 million. -- to 4 million. michael: ok. so to the gentleman behind you. >> hello. i am a retiree from the u.n.. i will ask four questions in quick succession. could you suggest some solutions for the problems that you have described? another question is about corruption. we have had a lot about corruption from the camera nation that somalia ranks high. we have many figures of the .mount of money there is a wikileaks report

showing that a prime minister [indiscernible] al-shabab, i want to ask a , when you were speaking about al-shabab, you said they security, andice, they collect taxes. doesn't this answer your question? michael: thank you. >> the last one. michael: three is enough. have to put my foot down somewhere. very good questions. >> good morning. until last december, i was the national security director of somalia. only one of somalis that has shown it successful until

2011. back to somalia, served pro bono and mogadishu, working in somalia outside the green zone. i can give you -- i've heard a lot of things about somalia. somalia has made a lot of progress. ofnow you have a little bit time, but we made a lot of progress. investments inof somalia. a lot of optimism. a lot of hope. when i hear people say that is providing services, al qaeda did provide services. but we never accepted them, we went to war with them. when you talk about somaliland, somaliland is a member state of somalia. this.be clear about this is a policy of the u.n., policy of the african union. state from 1960 to

1991, there are states, federal member states, a growing economy , banks, financial institutions, schools that are operating. there are a lot of positive things. i see -- here a lot of doom and gloom. i lived in mogadishu. terrorism,vived attacks, but still, we're fighting. they are fighting a shabbat, they are fighting isis. let me say one last thing. is at thembassy mogadishu airport. we transact and escape. -- and skype. that tells you about the footprint of the american government. a lot of it is fear. they don't want to come out of the airport. that's the truth. somalia has an army that has been built over the last 20 years or whatever, 10 plus

years. a lot of it by the u.s. government. there is police policy, somalia has three built institutions. there are a lot of positive things happening. one thing i heard about the conflict today between the prime minister and the president, that is part of the political discourse. effective leadership is required. it is not me the state is failing. it is not about the militias. name war load that existed in thatia -- war lord existed in somalia. a local state security are doing the work in combating the areas. they are not militias.

these are organizations paid for by the local state. what i am saying is, somalia is making progress. somalia is improving. you cannot go back. you have to move forward. the only way to go forward is to combat terrorism. that is the only thing holding back terrorism -- holding back some all you is to bob -- is al-shabab. the same thing is happening in somalia, but at a lower level. [applause] >> i would like to believe again -- i would like to begin with corruption. we have an ongoing debate about somali land. also, the broader question of even beyond, he asked about what solutions do we need for -- what improvements in policy? -- inervation, en

regards to his statement-we were privileged -- we were privileged president. former we are delighted to continue the conversation. i admire the transition process, even if it was not smooth and easy along the way. in our country, 160 some years ago, we had a civil war because we did not figure out how to agree about where the french regions should have their different- where the regions should have their autonomy. it is more complicated then say it is al-shabab. we heard statements on both sides about somali's land in this country. therere is no agreement, -- agreement, history tells us we should be nervous. i have heard enough to be

encouraged and scared. ios the panelists to respond. >> thank you. -- i will let the panelists respond. you.ank -- illicit trade. it is a recent estimate. i would like to discuss the solutions. the solution can only be the is and capacityity and accountability. about -- it is a

primary function of a modern state. delete accept to restrict -- do we accept to restrict your freedom in order to receive protection from the state? the state is unable to ensure the safety. capacity, how -- it order.ical for the government reforms are needed to ensure the effectiveness of the administration. this is an incremental process. we have countries which have made impressive progress.

rwanda, for example. most of the country would rather -- it is important factor to take into consideration. a third one.rm is economic freedom is critical. to be able to invest in somalia and be certain they will not be -- subject of terrorist order. cannot be a state if you cannot collect taxes. one important factor is the accountability it creates. theycitizens pay taxes,

ask for accountability of the decision-makers. it is critical. i will finish quickly. on the final point -- accountability. i've published a paper -- i am published a paper on accountability. it has many levels. whether the country is thecratic or not, supposedly of the leader has to deliver for your citizens. it may be the pure theuntability -- what are decision-makers doing to ensure citizens are well served? they will have vertical accountability. havingelections,

competition is critical. balances, how the parliament is ensuring -- overseeing the executive, for example. . one of your colleagues spoke about the peaceful people. cabability, --l diagonal accountability. it -- without security, it is difficult to have -- to deliver basic services. mr. o'hanlon: thank you. dr. felbab-brown: on the issue

boundary isational drawn is not unique to somalia. has not ceased, it has held onto it. it has never formally succeeded. it is not a part of the conversation. debates aboute scotland, catalonia. there is even a mover greater economy around -- a move for lawner autonomy around the -- around the lawn -- around milan.

whatever the air is, there has ,ot been any -- the era is there has not been any -- broker and negotiate it. not achieve any resolution. lessugh there has been , it is not state free from clan and governance problems. presidential elections will take place this year. it has been delayed. there are tensions between two states about the exact divisions of territory. there are tensions. component mentioned was the function of -- the tension of

al-shabab and the leader who seceded. it is a function of tension. a land was distracted from dealing with isis, which is small, but very clan-oriented. accept theing to state formation in the space. all three clan identities, conflicts in either state. somalia has a disport that has participated in international conversations.

often, there is little capacity to translate the document into any meaningful limitation on the ground. there is much operation in the implementation or unim plementation process. laws, such astal counter terrorism -- counterterrorism, just as laws have languished in the parliament for a long time. it is not unique to somalia. what is unique is the state of -- the governance dysfunction that is to be overcome. why is al-shabab entrenched? it delivers justice, which i

would not call it good justice. it is justice that is corrupt, in not particular to comparison to the justice delivered by the justice system. because it has the capacity to provide security, israel is brutal. populations find brutal authority justifiable. it is the same reason why taliban remains entrenched, despite massive international efforts to combat it. it is what it is a potent entity. al-shabab seems to be able to do this? to bely al-shabab seems - able to overcome at least to some extent, the clan positions and other miss governance? those are the answers i am not

hearing. solutionsers lie people have asked for. the solutions need to be fundamentally somali. decades ofu overcome exclusion and marginalization? how do you overcome decades of clan divisions? how are you going to overcome pervasive impunity, in which those in political power can finally justice? a prophecies is underway. what is to restrict impeachment capacity, so impeachment is not a constant gain for financial and political and resource payoff. there is functionality --, -- so, there is functionality of

the legislation. there are ministries, but the capacity is limited and restricted to a few individuals in mogadishu. there is some presence in state capitals. another nation effort to overcome these dysfunction and to move to greater past clan politics is a new pectoral -- new electoral roll requiring representation in all regions. at this point, it is state-level. it has to get signatures from people from different clan groups. political party formations, so should they take place, will not be a long clan lines.

we do not know if this will chip away at the land division. the dispute between the prime minister and speaker -- there something different about the dysfunctional politics. i see in washington right now with both men showing with armed forces that almost escalated to armed conflict to the point african members felt they had to prevent potential blood stretch -- blood stage -- blood stretch -- bloodshed. we have not seen in washington. i hope we never see in this country. mr. o'hanlon: we saw it in the early 1800s, a little bit. [laughter] dr. felbab-brown: let's not rewind back several centuries. ambassador schwartz: there's a

lot to comment on. a lot of people mention somalia land. we only recognize the federal -- recognize comedy federal government, in mogadishu. we deal with authorities in hargeisa. i met with leaders. we have a separate dialog with the usaid programs there. we contribute to the a little process. we are engaged there. we have a lot of respect for what somaliland people and authority have achieved. they are self-governing. democracy bytheir holding these elections. thetill treat it as part of country, at least from a legal or diplomatic standpoint.

things ietch out a few think need to happen. these are low-cost things. there's only one that costs money. the united states government should provide budget support to the federal government. it's critical problem is it is bankrupt. they cannot -- salary payment every month, let alone provide other services, revenue sharing with federal member states, three which are paper and to have -- are bankrupt and two -- $8 million a month would be plenty. it is less than $100 million a year. -- aend $300 million year year on humanitarian costs. $100 million is not a lot of money.

it would breathe a whole new life into what government could do. it would need to be coupled with a robust financial management system. it could jumpstart things across the board. this is a governance problem. entities have filled space. the government needs to do it. al-shabab provides a degree of predictable services. government cannot -- on any score. they need to at least that. beyond it, they need to provide education, health care, infrastructure, and security and justice. .t is not happening

it needs to happen. there is a lot that needs to go into it. it cannot do it without any money. .t is wishful thinking it is not going to happen. -- it is a broken country in many ways. there are political things. there somaliland. there needs to be a dialogue. there are movements to have a dialogue, which is set back by this dispute. the somalis need to resolve the status. as she pointed out, the gulf crisis has been a body blow to somalia's. they were on the verge of getting an assistance package from the saudis. it was put on hold. assistance could've, from arab countries -- turkey has been on hold. they get some, but not what they could.

there are a lot of pressure, particularly from the uae. it is tough. it is tough. because intrusion, we talked about a number of things. they need to finish the constitution process your they need to decide who is a somali. who can vote in a somali election. what are the authorities of the federal member states of the government, parliament, and executive. these are all unresolved. it creates a lot of drag on progress. in general, accountability. tolls on roads all over the country run by soldiers who are unaccountable, it reflects badly on government.

citizens would rather there would be no somalia national army if there is -- if their soul purpose is to tax vehicles and the population with no benefit to the people. .here is a lot that can be done get into accountability, governance, and they need the revenue injection. mr. o'hanlon: thank you. we have time for a lightning round. we have most of the big questions and issues addressed. the nature of the state, what solutions we should have. i will take six questions. i will ask each panelist to address no more than two to conclude. we'll do it in 10 minutes. i will start. let's see, how do i begin? there are 10 hands in the room. i will begin with the woman in the fourth row, the woman in the sixth row, and then doug. then, i will switch over to the side of the room in a moment.

>> thank you. min activities.mber of i spent three and a half years in somalia before we were evacuated, working for the united nations. i became embedded in the country. one thing that struck me, even the fragility of the regime and its ability not to provide basic services to the country, was the strength of the clans. we talk of six clans in the country that coincide with the six states being proposed for the country -- to some extent. i wonder if we could not think of the clans not as a source of weakness and conflict, but as the basis for the economic, social, and political capital, which the company needs to build . what is needed is some kind of

strength in the trust for a centralized state among those clans. if that can be achieved, somalia could work, for the first time in its 4000 year history, as a country. mr. o'hanlon: thank you. the woman in the redshirt. -- red shirt. >> i am a security manager. mr. o'hanlon: one question per person. >> there have been reports in the media about defection from al-shabab. i am curious if it is the media talking. is it having an impact on al-shabaab and if it is getting good intel? mr. o'hanlon: doug? doug: great talk today. on who is doing

the training on the legitimacy it is there worked to create a coast guard, which would be a huge revenue earner? mr. o'hanlon: humanity tan jacket and then the woman three euros beyond -- three rows beyond. >> i spent 10 years in the region, including somalia and others. instead of searching for fresh than 20 failed solutions, why they failed. what are the factors? i intended -- i attended more than three conferences. there were opportunities for good solutions, but it has been avoided regionally and internationally. thank you. mr. o'hanlon: thank you. here in the sixth row or so.

we will finish up with this gentleman. >> thank you for the panel. my name is stephanie. -- is daphne. one thing you have not talked about u.s. military policy against somalia. the u.s. has stepped up the number of drone strikes and airstrikes in somalia. discussing what the purpose is. it is to kill militants or terrorists. it is not say which group they are with, what the goal is. apparently, it says no civilians are killed. there is no information provided. could you comment on the effectiveness of the u.s. monetary policy toward somalia and how it is to reading or not contribute into what you think the country needs? mr. o'hanlon: great, finally here. john, my company is involved

in agriculture and if a structure investment in africa, ghana, and several other countries. two years ago, i was invited to go to the southwest eight of somalia. i spent time there. my question relates to the relationship between agriculture, economics, and security. lesse been concentrated on on the politics and how do you create a more coherent, economic plan that sets priorities for the allocation of security, deployment, and focus of troops. as an agricultural investor, i am focused on rivers. i am looking at the way somalia used to be the top banana export from east africa for many years. there are tremendous economic opportunities, especially in the

most unstable areas. i registered in the panel's views of the relationship between economic planning, coordination. as ann observation -- investor, i look to work in public-private partnership. my observation is there are 20 some agencies the u.n. -- agencies in the u.n. present. there are 30 countries with a bilateral presence. there are eight or nine develop mental banks. -- develop mental banks -- dev elopmental banks. it is difficult to navigate the u.n. agencies from a leadership aspect and bilateral agencies to create a cohesive economic plans. to me, the economic planning and the security our two sides of the same coin. as a private investor, i am curious and interested to see

advancement on the economic side and planning. mr. o'hanlon: thank you. panelist,s to each starting with the ambassador. ambassador schwartz: on agriculture -- it is much needed. there is a lot -- it was productive, particularly in the river area. there are a lot of big problems getting in. security, obviously. this has changed and become more complicated over the last 25 years since land ownership -- a and othersclans moved in and taken land, stolen land. a lot of people have been displaced. unfortunately, it seems to be the bantu population. land ownership is important to them. there are water issues that were not as pronounced before.

great.can make it work, it is tough. -- i am notmilitary privy to the last few months. of the drone strikes is to support somali national forces. -- forces against al-shabab. they can be effective in weakening shabbat leadership -- in -- weakening al-shabab leadership, particularly, important leaders. we have seen elsewhere in the world, it is not in itself. if that is all you are going to do, you are wasting time. it needs to be coupled with a

development program to build capacity, state capacity. it are fighting for the allegiance of the population. who can do more for them? the somali authorities will need to do it. we are trying to help them. police, costar, we are doing training with police. on the coast guard, there is a plan. i think it was in security architecture. personally, i do not think they need a navy. they need a coast guard. catfish, oil -- they have a lot of fish, oil, and do not have anything to fight piracy when it occurs. agriculture isn: thediately employment for

predominant member of the population. most people are employed or participating in the country in one way or another. it needs to change. agriculture will be important. i don't believe it can be theted, it permeates difficult political divisions. and much of the fighting, much of the clan discrimination has been ceded control to --. inclusion are and therpinning the effort in culture. on the issue of strikes the u.s. military needs to be given credit for being very cautious with airstrikes.

they are not rushing into the authorization from president trump. they have seen significant intensification of bombing by al-shabab. these allegations have been linked to various attacks. the reality is that most of those bombings that take place are unacceptable for any independent observer, for somali and somali journalists. i want to very much underscore the point, what is the point of it airstrike if there is no holding capacity on the ground. it leads to al-shabab being dispersed but the dominant plan land and, stealing

taking properties and causing displacement, that's the best example. deidre come on your issues about clans being the face of the organization, the strength or social capital. the question becomes much more complicated than that. the plans right now are often a source of conflict. the clans are drivers of conflict in fundamental ways. the issue of clans once again needs to be, how are minority , how are their rights protected and how are dominant clans be held -- the

held accountable. oppressed are very and disempowered by clans. it is not the clans that are the biggest social capital in somalia. and most are excruciating choices. dissection iof were mentioned in my remarks was for the union funded by dissections, that is what the paper is all about. i will not get into too many details. to -- be holding an event the dissections program is very crucial for what i call low risk defectors. , vastcrucial to

improvements need to take place. i am skeptical of impunity. there are many more details are in the paper. >> excellent. over to you for final word. >> i will finish with a question -- i think democracy is possible in which differences but has to happen the most powerful clans should respect the rights of the minorities. possible, but the word of law, civil rights and , i think rights

, verybab i remain hopeful much looking for a while to the findings, which i am certain will provide insightful policy options. achy. >> thank you all for being here.

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