>> why do -- pose a risk to national security? >> wrapping up this briefing with president trump and theria's president, it's first official visit from an african head of state during the trump presidency. if you missed any of the briefing you can see the entirety of it on our website. the last question to the president on korea, and we will follow that up and bring you to a live discussion on the summit between north and south korea and its potential effects on security in the korean peninsula, the u.s. and china. live coverage from the stimson center here in washington dc. >> you can see the leaders, the face of leaders. guys, which is

not the name of the restaurant, which is delicious. it is really scary for us. before the two koreas jong's you can see kim face and trump's face. is kind of an image of a burglar. trump, who isurse firing theory. then we have a summit. and then south koreans , i canion to kim jong-un say, has been changed. how handsome he is, how nice. seethen also you can

president trump is smiling. this is psychological, maybe in the situation of south korea. as you witness north korea recently had several nuclear missile tests. korea on september 9, they argue that it is kind of a hydrogen. and then in two years more than

three missile launches, they practiced. in the situation, the military complex is quite likely. and maybe we can figure out why would --ea enjoyed thewas superiority and mission capabilities, including military and economy. maybe they can say it political assault or ideas. on there is a980 balance between the south and north korea was changed.

obviously after the collapse of the soviet union and the eastern european bloc they have become way more isolated. --confronting this kind of north korea made the big decision to go forward with nuclear. it's a kind of long story. another reason is to secure the .urvival of the regime and also the strength and military balance against the south. also to deny the policies and regime change. north korea was tenacious and

building their military capabilities and also launched the icbm over the united states. however it has certainly changed. this compares to korea and also how hard i worked. me.se pardon this is a heavily fortified country. within 100 miles there are more than 2 billion armies there. and also this is the kind of history of north korea's provocation and the development of the north korean weapons and

missiles. this is north korea's three generation of leaders. economicea's political system. ,nd them can jonathan right now focused on developing -- and then kim jong-un now, focused on developing nuclear weapons. and north korea, for the first time, on the soil of south korea, they bombard. this is how terrible the south korean situation is. .orth korea's military strip let me escape out of this.

ok. south korea's policies, limit briefly introduce the policies. before -- became president -- billing -- when people look at their sense a in detail they believe area -- a believe. most of korea was hogtied to this idea of conservative government. when jane government paid special attention to the -- and the greater unification by peaceful means.

this is the basic line of north korean policies. throughout the nuclear crisis on the note -- on the peninsula there are four kinds of ideas around or in korea about north korea's change. is the -- school. -- the collapse school. second school's neglect. this is the park obama -- the park government, plus obama. think the moon governments

belongs in the sunshine course. even though many of south korean maybe taperingre in washington dc, they believe are -- i can say the policy orientation is quite different from them, even though they embrace the policy idea. plus they are very cautious and they try to keep pace with the information. this is very different. they pay special respect to the u.s. alliance. i can say confidently this kind of idea, because i'm one of the make awho try to campaign into policies.

i was one of the three members. so -- first one is of course the problematic isolations. china joined the sanctions. even though some american members -- don't believe china really, seriously. they joined the sanction club. china was quite serious, as far as i understand. and this provide north korea with tremendous pressure. is the international sanction and the economy, how it should be respected.

north korea's likely to face tremendous -- and also in the future. which may threaten the legitimacy. maybe this is also another factor we have to think about. kim jong seems to have a kind of in north korean society and policies. and also it is the moon jae-in gaprnment to bridge the between north korea and the united states and even north korea and south korean people. and also we have new opportunities for south korea governments to pursue a kind of peace and stability. we have a strong sense of urgency to denuclearize north

korea and also north korea's nuclear development, very close to threatening the u.s. continent. united states paid more special attention to the nuclearization -- the denuclearization of north korea. if we just follow the conventional ways of , it's quite difficult to induce north korea into the negotiation table. the trump factor, i think, certainly works. even though you my friends didn't want to listen to me. -- listen to him. no matter whether we like him or not, this is kind of true. mentioned, it is heavy

stress. kim jong seems to have a dramatic change possible. he kept his cards in his pocket, so we will have to see the of the north korean and u.s. summit. -- letuce moon jae-in's me introduce moon jae-in's policies. if summary wants these documents, i will provide later. that's if somebody wants these documents, i will provide later. -- if somebody wants these documents of will provide later. give meet what he seconds more.

--give me 20 seconds more. there are three main parts in the south-north korean summit. first part is comprehensive and dramatic development of our relationship with himself and north korea. there are six detailed agreements. is the majors. subtly changing arguments or the announcement. but now they change the,

knowledge a little different. maybe just silly. this is very important. inmates north korea may take a -- tactic when he met president clinton -- i'm sorry, trump. i'm getting out of my mind. we carefully watch over the -- and why they change. is it a mistake or not? i don't think it's a mistake. it shows their kind of tactics. it's the one thing i pay attention to. second one is the establishment of a perpetual peace regime.

also next summit would be how do they -- there are also several measures to reduce. parts.hree main let me have a variation on the new approaches. as many as -- there are no big changes. and no details. position inhas a the south korean north korean summit. building a considerable trust between these two leaders seems to be established. the kind talks.

there are the exchanges and invoice. they seem to have a certain confidence. maybe the negotiation with president trump. we can anticipate something positive. we are not sure because we have not seen the outcomes. also the north korean leader wants hope to shift the political focus to economic development. and the third is kim shows confidence on domestic stabilities.

and then in this summit they are a main focus to help improve the relationship between south and north korea. building into the united states. main focus is to build a better relationship with south korea. he tried to strengthen the international capacity for the u.s. north korean summit. south korean government wants to give the present -- wants to give the credit to president trump. we didn't have any details about the guidelines, principles or policies.

even basic principles so everything, almost everything this is the one thing we can anticipate, something good. north korea hopes china will play by the rules. not for the peace treaty. north korea will adapt -- looking for the compromise to the nuclear capability, why

giving up a nuclear capability of the present and future. kim jong-un hopes to keep nuclear capabilities in the past. kim aims for the changing his images, which is quite successful anyway. pressure ofce the the international sanction from the international society. you can imagine how they played .uring the period

and giving -- >> you are so generous. we have to for the denuclearization of north korea. and don't repeat the past experience. north korea has several reasons to adapt a much more progressive and bold approach. we have to utilize the moment detail, thee the denuclearization measures. we need to coordinate the policies.

and the capability to push their pressure. utilizing the kind of differences. and then the weather, they are denuclearized to north korea. and then they return from the denuclearization, how to assure the security of north korea is the most important agenda. and also to be able to perceive the piece. but unify the piece.

this is our dream. south korea may choose nuclear armament or a strong alliance. south korea already prepares for the worst scenarios. an optimistic idea and a positive outcome to prepare for the worst scenario as well. >> thank you. up.seems to be a good lead china's role, please. >> thank you. i want to join dr. kim for using the center for the opportunity to exchange views.

we have seen a series of fast moving diplomatic moves. which add to the korean summit and joint declaration. always i have different assessments from the same developments. we became longtime friends. that does not mean we always agree with each other. i believe summing significant is going on. and these developments are exactly what china has hoped to see.

a softening of positions of all and to solve the problems through dialogues and diplomatic means. the korean peninsula is always full of dramatic events after a crazy here of missile launches and nuclear testing and one round of sanctions after another. kicked off the year with a new celebrating the completion of his nuclear deterrent. at the same time he expressed north korean's interest in participating in the winter olympics to be held --

always the case, develops on , they are peninsula used like the olympics was as a vehicle to reopen diplomatic talks. that has led to a flurry of high-stakes diplomacy. south korean invoice were -- south korean envoys where invited to -- --y were and can the offer for a summit. the president immediately

accepted the offer, related by the south. in all these interactions china seems not to be discernible. sparked a flurry of flurries in a country that china may have been sidelined. shortly tosproved pay a visit to beijing. journeyt ever foreign believeit was widely to that widely believed to be a --widely meeting believed to be a surprise meeting.

is it came from pyongyang. and it was kim who want to did after six years of refusing to visit with china. the excuse for the beijing trip was an easy one as he stated during his summit with president xi that he should xi's reelection face-to-face. this happened after china's two renew forwhich would of the prc. the timingsummit

spoke for itself. the visit raises the questions about what came hoped to with this latest unexpected burst of diplomacy. after years of provocative threats. visit once again highlighted china's key role on the korean peninsula. that kim jong-un met the chinese leader in itself was a major development. early on relations between the two have become increasingly , and kim needed emerging from international sanctions.

china is now the first country to be officially visited. to support the peaceful development. coming after years of unusually bad relations between the two countries, the summit represented a major breakthrough. while they stayed silent, the nuclear issue. pages, theirt workers party was dedicated to the summit.

although she may not harbor many friendly feelings toward each , the meeting was based on solid utility. show.s something to where she demonstrated that china had traditional ties and enduring bombs and could by no means be marginalized. korea, north and south the exchange of our performance played a visible role in the korean relationship. it also happened between the north and china. china sent a high-profile artist group and contacted performances

there. hastily -- hastily arranged, the group was led by the international liaison department. .his was unprecedented this arrangement highlighted the political mission set for performance to breathe a warm , as if something unpleasant -- as if nothing unpleasant ever happened between the two countries. signaling the importance of what april 20, north korea convened a worker's of north korea primary session, and from april 21, it would terminate nuclear and and close out the

, where theting base last nuclear tests were conducted. jong-unr messages kim wanted to convey to his people include, first kim delivered the keynote speech to educate the north korean people that the time has come to recent the country's nuclear status. north koreans have made tonificant sacrifices develop their nuclear weapons. leaderth korean needed to mobilize such a big change in such a short period of time.

the partyim's speech adopted two resolutions, claiming the great victory over .he parties being king numeral -- namely simultaneously pushing forward. their solutions explicitly acknowledged they lie and has accomplished historical mission. the party meeting decided to take actions to suspend nuclear from april 21.ts and the close out of the nuclear facilities.

demand that freezing the nuclear missile byts should be reciprocated a suspension of u.s. south korea joint military exercise. it seems that kim jong-un has made a major decision. and i understand that many people in this town are skeptical. of the recent developments. i believe they have reasons to be suspicious. i tend to believe something very significant is happening.

and people often ask whether north korea will give up nuclear weapons or not. actually it is an inactive process. a benign interaction will depend that are made inside and outside north korea. there are three things we should .ollow very closely three major developments, in my view.

will bes a summit that held probably in june. if it happens it will be a historic development. second the president will visit north korea. probably after the kim chump summit. what will come out of all the summits. is these are very important developments.

>> thank you, i'm sure we have a lot of questions. please hold for another presentation. what u.s. plans to do now. , thank you and the simpson center for the privilege to be here. thanks to my colleagues. own onents today are my behalf of the national committee of north korea. a recent event on the korean peninsula, including north koreans participation in the olympics are extraordinary. during the decade since the signing of the korean warm -- korean war armistice. understanding the summit was the beginning, a groundwork for the future, there are six initial that come to my own mind.

they reflect a true paradigm regardingim jong-un this country's nuclear program. what are the respective definitions of denuclearization. how did north korea's biological and chemical weapon programs fit into the overall mix? one. short and medium range missiles? is they share a common operating style with bold gestures and expectations. consistent with his approach to theh korea and

administration. it's clear that president xi jinping has to do china's increasing enforcement in sanctions to the recent passing targeting north korea. president trump's approach has been unconventional in the past practice. has brought his ceo skills to the oval office. like any ceo facing a major challenge for crisis, the president has been utilizing resources within and without the administration. his intensity in pursuing the north korean nuclear program is matched by president moon's commitment to engage with the north. these exist with north korea possessing the capable you potentially hitting the unites states of the nuclear tipped missiles. president xi jinping and kim

jong-un truly understand the seriousness for which the trump administration and the congress used its capability. there is the unfortunate possibility of a miscalculation on their part. especially on the of limitation phase, which can ultimately result in u.s. military action targeting north korea. there are issues on the u.s. related to a possible there will be officials in the trump administration, as well as past administrations. ofe appointed, others part the bureaucracy, who would consider a negotiated settlement as a stretched too far. varying information made to erode implementation of a policy reflecting engagement with north korea. collapsehere will be a of north korea's regime. consequently, in the event

president trump and leader kim reach any agreement, their respective willingness to fully implement the details may determine whether the korean war resumes. secretary pompeo, who has invested heavily on president trump's behalf may become increasingly distracted by other unless thes ministration appoints a full times -- full-time official or czar.e -- official then the post summit performance of the trump administration may falter. administration's maximum pressure strategy combined with the president unpredictability have been, in my opinion, primary drivers contributing to drive desk and shooting to china's active -- interesting opinion, havemy

been contributing drivers. it has resulted in icbm capability of the resources on the part of north korea. come a northears korea as an authoritarian state has benefited from inconsistent u.s. policies toward that changes resulting from -- resulting in changes in administration and mixed signals, or policy conflicts. especially, and kim jong-un, became quite a duck at calibrating north korean provocations and u.s. reactions. chinese officials over time discern the degree and manner in which the response to the level --re it became clear while china led the six party process, china's focus on regional stability

versus the u.s.'s insistence on north korean denuclearization country into the long-term chinese emphasis on managing the north korean issue rather than resolution of the issue as preferred by the u.s.. it appears the trump administration ratchet up its maximum pressure strategy to elicit ongoing positive north korean behavior. chinese cooperation enforcement will -- unfortunate casualties of the overall north korean sanctions -- maximummaximums pressure strategy may be those suffering from disease. this occurred despite reports --

its north korean operation on the part of the global fund will contribute to a severe epidemic of tv and , whichrug-resistant tb may spread to south korea and china. experts reject 120 thousands of cases of tb00 new and thousands of new cases of drug-resistant tuberculosis on an annual basis. fund's pullout, u.s. executive branch sanctions and other pressures on u.s. humanitarian ngos operating inside north korea, along with congressional and u.n. sanctions , in major humanitarian crisis is starring within the north with real applications for the people of china and south korea as well. in conclusion, nothing will surprise me regarding the u.s.-northongoing

korean negotiations, and the possible trump-kim summit. result in anmay agreement that may have been impossible to achieve during this passing ministration. an unconventional american leader, president trump will know history will judge him to a significant degree of his handling of the north korean situation. his north korean counterpart is unconventional in some respects as well. one being the allowance of the operation of hundreds of markets and the developed of the class of north korea notch burners as this country transitions to a market economy. nucleare issues beyond -- beyond denuclearization to address. , the reunification of families among others. to resolution on all issues related to north korea's a long one. , north korean

leaders are diligent, we will then again be off course with unfortunate consequences. thank you. [applause] , a big thanks to all of our speakers. these threelly questions. --i dr. -- i will act julie will actually raise three questions. arehe declaration there references to economic proliferation. do you see these economic activities between the south and north korea to happen any in the near future? is thenow that there news about the chinese foreign visiting north korea in about two days, less than two

days. he is rumored to be in north korea to discuss with north koreans about president xi jingping's upcoming visit. could you tell us more about this upcoming visit? >> we know they advocated for a .radual step-by-step approach it fell apart in 2007. what other different factor this confidencegive us the north koreans this time, other than the fact is a different leader, would give us to their general commitment of denuclearization? >> in the documents of the , and the south korean

government, moon jae-in, obviously, and a special presentation to the north and south economy. however, south korea is very cautious in implementing economic cooperation because of the international sanction. this is quite different from what you imagine as the jong-un.ce of kim you have kind of a little bit of of the moonsion are governments -- of the moon jae-in governments failed and to they respect

solidarity of an international society. that's why the moon jae-in government wants to show kim jong-un on the bridge >> we prepared a lot how to support north korea, and what we can do. eight types ofd china, inlans, so siberia. is the korean peninsula. explained kim jong-un. it we have been promised --

depends on the north korean summit. something good to trump. summit, ande a good we have a great plan to support north korea economically, this is the plan. i am not going to be surprised. >> they are big tariffs but not immediately. >> we have big tariffs. we are willing to. first you have to do what you need to do.

korea?visit to north >> the announcement of the , he got promoted and became state counselor and foreign minister. visit isncement of his another example of the effortsng of diplomatic in the region by the different parties. missions is to make provision --for

for president xi jinping's visit later this year. tose indicate china wants see the opportunity. momentum to push forward the resolving the nuclear problem through diplomatic peaceful means. i think china believes we have the opportunity. the parties should seize the opportunity. so it should be interesting to

watch what will happen out of these visits. thank you. now key difference between and the time when agreements were reached, north korea's theile capability, hitting united states. this has the attention of president trump as it would president hillary clinton or india -- or anyone else in the white house. point north korea breached that capability, that would be a red line and needed to be dealt with. this requires the president to be focused on this issue in terms of north korea. i believe president trump will continue to be focused on north korea.

continue to will consult with south korea, china, russia. this new capability will make the difference. >> thank you. thank you for your answers. we will open the floor to q&a. try not to make a long statement. just ask questions. you.ank quick scenario. the talks between trump and cam breakdown over denuclearization. kim asks for the removal of u.s. troops. which has been north korea's past position. says to xiround and

best, i madeed my and thes peace offer americans have continued their policy. sanctionsu continue on my country in these circumstances when i tried. opinion, china in your how would china respond to that? >> china deserves credit for its to try toing efforts bring together different parties for the pasty out

20 years. heald trump is saying that deserves the credit for the recent developments. 50-50.ay been trying hard to north korean leadership to change an open up society. with someery hard limited successes. difficult as well. and eventual resolution requires

different parties to make their respective efforts. side you have a lot to offer to north korea. promise tothey denuclearize. has many things to offer. north korea 10 get things in return for denuclearization. economic assistance, security guarantees. diplomatic normalization.

things they cannot get. the issue is that they have to denuclearize. the outside world should work together to encourage and induce them to move in that direction. should studywe , what we should do. >> ok.

so we are sensitive. if china is too much, we are willing to fight back. we still want to have a cooperated relationship. if we understand the history and the blood of koreans, i don't think north korea will ask the united states when south korea -- if the relationship between the united states and north korea is hostile they are going to ask that. if they think the relationship is going to be a card for north korea to do with

china and the united states. >> i want to ask simply, before north korea take steps, semi-north korea has suspended its missile activities, will china lift sanctions? >> i think to encourage them to move in the direction of denuclearization there are some things china can do. kim jong-un has announced that they have suspended the missile launch and chest. think china can do

something bilaterally. like, you are correct in doing so. toplicitly do some things measuresose essential to some extent. think the united states can do similar things. direction ofthat denuclearization. summit i think -- we

to september 19 agreement, which was reached in 2005. this remains a good deal in parties commit themselves to various steps in language of action for action, word for word. inherited for the in the to move ahead next months. >> >> a question for any of the

panelists. will you speak to the japanese strategy for involvement? >> japanese strategy? >> a good question. japan has a direct interest in the north korea situation. .his has been a primary topic it seems while some would sidelinedpan has been by virtue of the u.s. north korea dialogue, i don't believe that is the case.

prime minister abe is not a shy person. if anything, he may view the u.s. north korea approach as an opportunity for him, to japan to strike out in terms of what they might be able to come to an agreement on. >> dr. kim? perspective, they 'se carefully watching trump policies toward north korea and whether they will have agreements.

if you look at the japanese , you can see who, with --t country japan's allies then it can tell you something in the future longer-term. this is the one thing. have aeally wanted to relationship with south korea to deter china. japan chose to the united states to only contribute in east asia to deter china.

.hina is hostile -- they are fear impulsive. i was in the team of south korea japanese showing that they are original great power to china. they try to strengthen their alliance with the united states to show to china how important the japanese are. >> ok.

we will move along with questions. >> thank you. this has been a tremendous dialogue we have here. is aee with you, there , and then there is an american factor. pressurerump's high diplomacy none of this would happen. however, i am happy it is happening. we have an opportunity to go somewhere as asia. however, it is difficult for me

about mr. kim's determination. up hisoing to give nuclear arsenal? because of the past history, we do this: we do that, none of this came about. it is difficult for me. he asked to understand now that everybody in the world knows who ,e is, what he has committed to his back is against the world -- against the wall. otherwise the whole world is going to say this is the axis of evil. question. --

>> i have a question. you said north korea has changed. do you think change is big enough for north korea? >> another question. cam, you mentioned north korea hopes china will play a .imited role no role in the peace treaty. can you talk about what does south korea want china to play in the organization of the korean peninsula? what road this china want in this? for mr. blues. >> a list of questions.

is like --hem china -- asian >> large and extinct? >> no, no. if it is so energetic, we start approachbecause they what we are afraid of. china played in important role during the crisis of the nuclear

issues. attention. we appreciate the role of china. as -- i have forgotten your name , china did not really tried to resolve the issues. it is not in china's interests. china tried to maintain stability and then long-term denuclearization. they are facing different situations. division intates their navy plans, their strategies for the world, president trump saying america first. even though trump helps us richer this, next to what?

what kind of vision is he going to provide? more pressure because of the america first policies? what is he going to play? this is what we are worried about. out the kind get of inference from china. china is so huge, to disregard. play for thena can world. world in gray. the free chair of the korean peninsula. what you can suggest for us. this is the situation we are watching over carefully.

this is the situation. >> i think there is a possibility for c bid. bei put it earlier it will an interactive process. prospect for us all ahead. possibility that fill the mission -- fulfill the mission to denuclearize the peninsula. they are different possibilities. to achievek together what we hope.

peninsulanuclear free is what everyone wants. so, u.s., china, japan, russia, efforts. all make about a denuclearize korean peninsula. everyone has a role to play. question, i to your believe the u.s. appreciates the role china has played. it seems that has been focused on managing the situation. china could be very helpful and we welcome china's role.

will see if china is up for it. another round of questions. >> particularly reacting to dr. kim's comment about china being in the dna of korea and if north improved u.s. relations , north koreans view the role of the u.s. forces may change. i was going to ask that question and you anticipate it me. can you elaborate on that? specifically can you see this infecting at the center of trumps negotiations, putting on

the table if we can develop a constructive relationship combat my view of u.s. forces in korea will be different. >> brian. >> thank you. a two-part question. does this opening up on the previous question, china in the blood of korea, does this opening up of north korea offer an opportunity to be more independent of china? open north korea be undesirable anyway for china? having less influence, revealing a greater chinese role in the north korean program?

>> my question is for dr. lewis. it is been suspicious there has been little talk about the detainees. -- my secondave question, where do you think the summit will be happening and why? >> our panelists, do you want to start? >> on the subject of detainees i imagine this at the top of the trump administration agenda. >> china is special. it has more authority. >> he is chinese.

korea is independent enough. for many years they have been .dvocating chinesee eliminated from their language, and so forth. called byt want to be the major -- told by the major powers what they should do. not thatestion is north korea will be more , moreent on china

dependent on the u.s.. need totion is that we bring about a different north korea. a changed north korea. a denuclearize north korea. somethingveryone has to contribute. thank you. >> chinese is in the korean dna. difficult for the western people to understand the kind of emotion in the blood of the koreans. a big country. lotave learned from china a

throughout history. chinaeel threatened when ,-- so south koreans they have a history of a long fight against china. house.ve certain no the second point is, one of the korean newspapers had three conditions suggested by the north korean side, one is the u.s. summit. is nothe five there

suggestions of u.s. armies. i fully understand it is quite possible. region's,k at the there is a good relationship. they don't really trust each other because of the strategic interests. tried to have each other. , ithe conditions can change show you the evidence.

2007, the foreign minister. came to new york at the moment. he made an important speech. toyou allow north korea this isnuclear weapons, the joke, but it is not. north korea played the game. to help get them over. that is why it i think north

korea would not use the card. which is the result. depending on the entire activity that you mentioned. reentering complex games. we do not know the outcomes. .verything is clear because of the clear line of the system. now it is mixed. thatthing is on the table president trump says. say everything is possible. maybe north korea can also say we on the table as well. >> this has been a lively discussion. i am sure everyone has

discussions -- has more questions. feel free to stay on and get answers to the questions. thank you for coming.