film, "eskimo hunters." the 1967 film, "alaska centennial." in the 1944 film, "alaskan highway." on the c-span networks, at c-span.org, or listen with the c-span radio app. we want to welcome back a longtime friend, charlie cook of the cook political report. you have been on this network for more than 30 years. guest: i think i was on c-span the first year that it was on the air. it is always fun and it was an important part of my career. that is why i religiously come back when you ask. the: i want to get to 30,000 foot level and then we will drill down to some of these races. it is mid july, the election is november, and a lot can happen.

what does it feel like? guest: it looks like in the house, democrats need a net gain of 23 seats. it looks like it will be in the 20 to 35 seat range, some more likely than not that the house flips but it might not. usually, the dynamics in midterm elections start setting by midsummer. we have never had it reverse course from this point on, but at the same time, the senate looks a lot more likely than not to stay in republican hands. republicans need to be worried about governor's and state legislative seats. three quarters of our governorships and 4/5 of our state legislative seats will be up in november. given all the power that has gone out to the states, that is a big deal. everybody always says, the upcoming election is the most important since moby dick was a

guppy. this one is important with the house on the line. this is a really big one. host: republicans have neil gorsuch on the supreme court, a brick kavanaugh number -- brett kavanaugh nomination, and a strong economy. democrats running against donald trump, what is their message? guest: i would not want to make this election up or down on president trump. i would not try to introduce a lot of messaging. what was the slogan that democrats just unveiled, we the people. they ought to keep this a referendum up or down. to the extent they get specific on anything, they run the risk of giving republicans ammunition to use against them. i would keep this as a referendum and if i were a republican, i would try to focus on what concrete things have happened on capitol hill and try to localize and individualize it

, and try to keep it away from being a referendum up or down of president trump. host: one of the states republicans have targeted is florida. rick scott is seeking the senate seat held by bill nelson. here is a relatively new ad from the scott campaign taking aim at senator nelson and the democrats. >> how much does bill nelson toe the party line? he voted with hillary clinton 89%, with obama 98%. democratic presidents have on -- nominated more than 100 judges -- 700 judges. you cannot get more partyline than that. lastnelson, 31st, florida -- party first, florida last. guest: i think it is one of the best 2, 3, or four senate races

of this year, one of the most competitive. rick scott, the governor meets all the tests of what is a top level challenger. statewide name recognition at the beginning of the race, statewide organization at the beginning of the race, all the money he could possibly need, and four, he has one tough -- won tough statewide elections before. it is about as purple a state as you can get. host: let's get to nevada, one of the states the democrats hope to pick up. dean heller has an ad on the air. >> i and jacky rosen and i approved this message. >> they call him senator spineless, first promising to vote against obamacare -- >> heller from nevada is a no. >> i cannot support a piece of

legislation that takes insurance from tens of millions of americans. >> but then, dean heller got pressure from his party leaders. >> threats from president trump, loud and clear. >> you are not there but you will be. >> he broke his promise and voted for a repeal. >> a deciding vote. >> that is a complete 180. >> he decided not to cross trump. >> the plan would allow insurance companies to charge people over 50 up to five times more than young people and what and -- what end sections for pre-existing conditions. host: the democratic ad and nevada, size at that race. guest: republicans only have nine seats up and only five are in serious jeopardy. dean heller is the only incumbent in real jeopardy.

it will be very close. one thing about, heller does not have a strong personality. there are not a lot of people who loathe him and there are not a lot of people who would walk on hot coals for him. , this ist of members going to be a party vote as much or more than anything else. host: look at tennessee, because it is an interesting race where you have a republican nominee, an open seat with bob corker a former democratic governor who is ahead in the polls. this is a seat republicans thought they would keep. guest: tennessee is a state where if you just said, what does a generic republican or democrat do? they are giving the former two-term governor, he is probably be the only living democrat in the state that could win. on the republican side, marsha

blackburn will be the republican nominee and she has got a very strong personality. a polarizing person. she might have a tougher time than joe or jane generic republican. that is what makes this race so close and one of the premier races. host: nancy pelosi is running in her congressional district but she is on the ballot in a lot of key races. aca help or hindrance? want this tot sound disrespectful in any way to nancy pelosi, but if she announced today that she was resigning from congress, there would probably be people jumping out of windows at the national republican congressional committee because they do not really have hillary clinton to beat up anymore, they do not have president obama anymore. nancy pelosi is one of their

arrows in their quiver against democrats. it will work in some places. it worked in the georgia six special election last year. she is not nearly as big a demon for republicans to be done as clinton and president obama more. -- were. i can see democrats getting to 218 seats in this election. it is a little harder to see, where does nancy pelosi get 218 votes for speaker if democrats win a majority. it is not animosity towards her personally, but there is a generational time for a change thing. the biggest argument for pelosi surviving this is there isn't a single, or even two really strong contenders that you could point to and say, that person could be pelosi. if she survives, it will be the

absence of any unified op. cit. -- opposition. host: let's look at a national ad from the rnc and then we will look at arkansas. the rnc, as the republican party does take aim at the former house speaker, now democratic leader in the house of representatives. nancy pelosi, right now, i guess we could call her the incoming speaker of the house of representatives. cancel --ld like to raise taxes? >> the second part is accurate. >> the economy has been losing jobs for months. >> yes, we will raise taxes. >> officials call it a regulations tsunami. >> anti-immigration marches to

abolish ice. >> a growing sense the u.s. military has significantly changed and not for the better. >> similar mismanagement within the veterans benefits administration. theig personnel cuts by u.s. army, the latest in a series of downsizing those. -- moves. >> what i represent and senator sanders and senator warren, that is the nature. pathetic, just like giving you a bowl of doggie doo, put a cherry on top and call it a chocolate sundae. host: is the ad effective? guest: in some districts it will be. this is a district largely in therban america and unlike senate races, they will be -- this is a suburban

district and in some places it will be effective. host: the latest in-house ratings in terms of those that democratic tossups, only two. republican tossups, 25. in arkansas, this is an ad also focusing on nancy pelosi. >> congressman hill opened his campaign by attacking me, knowing full well that i said i will not vote for nancy pelosi. we are better than that. i am the only candidate in this race who has worked with both parties to protect health care, strengthen education, and empower entrepreneurs. i will do the same in congress because my priority is our families and our future, not the politics of the past. i am part tucker and i approved this message. host: charlie cook? guest: that is a pretty good deflection add.

we are seeing quite a few democrats, not incumbents, that are saying if i win i will not vote for nancy pelosi. host: look at this headline from politico that has pictures of those individuals. guest: again, i don't think it is personal towards her but a lot of it is generational and some of it is political survival. this year, there were 435 seats. we basically know who was going to win in 335 them. there are 100 we are watching and of them, about 60 are competitive. when you have a midterm election with a president with low approval ratings, they don't knock off many seats from the other side. that explains why there are so few democratic seats in jeopardy, is when you have the wind going one way it is hard to go against the strength.

largely, the competitive races are mostly not going to be in the deep south, but arkansas which is basically little rock is one of the few. that is one of the few deep south republican districts that are in danger. it is basically right in and immediately around little rock, so it is not a small town, rural district. ,epublicans have to even worry even in the deep south because hillary clinton and barack obama kept the republican party together in the south. the absence of that allows democrats to kind of run more under their own flag a little bit. host: we are talking with charlie cook from the cook political report. a bellwether of what to expect in midterm politics, that is our focus from illinois, bob is on the phone on the republican line. caller: good morning.

love c-span. i got a question about the maxine waters race. there are differing accounts online. some say she does not live in her district and some say she does. if she does not live in her district, can she run? guest: i have no earthly idea whether maxine waters lives in her congressional district or not. for the u.s. house of representatives, there is no legal requirement anywhere to live in your district. ,ou need to live in your state but there is no legal requirement. things thatry few we are sure of in life -- death and taxes are two. democrats do not lose districts that are as overwhelming as hers, and she has no race. living in a district that is not

a legal requirement. it can be a political hit. we have seen members and competitive districts lose because they had an apartment that they rarely went to back in the state or the district. that was political, not legal, and not in a district as overwhelmingly democratic as this one. host: from norwich, new york, carol on the democrats line. caller: i have two questions. one is about the race between claudia tenney and anthony brindisi. i wonder how he would handicap it. and in the other thing you would like to say about that district. my second question is about a relatively new book by alan abramowitz called "the great realignment," about race, party, and transformation of the party

system with the rise of trump. i wondered what he thought of that book. host: thank you. guest: alan abramowitz is a friend of mine and a terrific political scientist at emory university. i have his book on my bed stand. it is waiting to be read as soon as i finished john mccain's book, which i am mostly through. , ourh david wasserman house editor, was here, because he is our granular effort. york,rk 22, upstate new this is the republican incumbent claudia tenney in a district that in presidential elections votes six points more republican than the rest of the country. level playing field, democrats might have a chance of winning this one but it would be pretty uphill. haveyear when republicans

some headwinds, democrats have some tailwinds as appears now, this is one that is in play. we have this race rated as a tossup, which means it is one of the top -- it would be one of the 30 best chances democrats have of knocking off a republican. this is a top-tier democratic challenge. host: let me turn to another 2021, one ofork the youngest republican female candidates to be elected to the house of representatives. guest: that is why you can't go just hard and fast by the numbers. in this case, it is a slightly less republican district than in the 22nd. in the 22nd, the one the caller asked about, democrats have a

top-tier, really good challenger . democrats do not have a good challenger particularly against her and we haven't rated as solid. -- have it rated as solid. she is not going to lose, let's put it that way. host: in pennsylvania, the first congressional district, brian fitzpatrick and you have it leaning republican but it has been giving -- getting some attention. this is a race to watch on whether the republicans keep or lose the house of representatives. why? guest: it is a suburban district. win a majority, it will be through suburban districts like bucks county, montgomery, box, delaware,

chester county. host: the ring around the city. ofst: these are the kind districts democrats have to win to get a majority. this is one of the very most vulnerable, in that concentric tear. r. tie new jersey, pennsylvania, virginia would be the three states early on election night where you will see results coming in where you will get a sense if democrats are likely to get 23 or more, and this is a race i would look at. host: virginia is certainly one of those. guest: bobber construct -- bobber con stock -- barbara comstock is more vulnerable. she is not toast, but has a really challenging situation. host: brad in international falls, minnesota, thank you for

waiting. caller: good morning to both of you. we are talking about this midterm election and whatnot. the senate pretty well will have between 59 and 61 republicans, pretty solid. on the house side -- guest: let me interrupt. right now there are 51. caller: like you say, there is only nine republicans up on the ballot. basically the remaining of the 33 are democrats. they are going to lose more -- about half. on the house side, there were be about 235, 240 republicans. here is the real -- the point being on all of this is, the reason why the democratic party is in the position they are is that they do not have anybody

running. the only way that somebody will take over the party and have a chance is they have got to kick out the media. host: how do you view his assessment? guest: i have all the respect in the world for you and your opinion. i will tell you that i have not met a single republican official or strategist or consultant that shares your degree of optimism for republicans this year. a hugely successful -- yes, there are only nine republican seats up. three of them are in grave danger. at least one or two republicans are behind. 4, 5, 6 races to worry about, five in states that trump one by 14 points or more. if i had to bet on the single

most -- i don't that on politics -- if i had to bet on the single most likely scenario it would be zero and a change. outo in 51-49 and we come 51-49. if i am wrong, it is likely republicans gain one seat or have a net loss of one seat. you have a fabulous year for republicans if they picked up three seats. crazy.et's go wild and nowhere near the 58, 59 seats. i have not met a single republican official who thought that was in the round of possibility. host: california on the democrats line, steve, good morning. caller: good morning from the golden state. charlie, i have been watching you for years on c-span. , for whatever

reason, that you lost a lot of weight. guest: having a cardiologist scare the hell out of you will do that. it is for the good, i appreciate it. caller: i am a native of san francisco. i have the utmost respect and honor for nancy pelosi, but it is time for her to pass the torch on. she is so polarizing. she was a great fundraiser. i know she is from baltimore. i just know a little bit about her through the years, but she is too polarizing. democratsg my labor -- and you are talking to a teamster retiree that organized labor parades, getting the labor message out -- and i have a lot of my friends, at least 50% of my teamster buddies who stood on picket lines for 27 weeks during

my career with lucky's supermarkets, 27% of them voted for trump. they just could not vote for hillary. i loved hillary. she was the most experienced candidate the democrats have had for years to take the office. i voted for her but i said bernie sanders -- sent bernie sanders money as i wanted him to wake up the youth, and he did. all i am asking for is the democrats to come back home. this midterm is so important. one last point, to my fellow democrats, if we don't have a majority in the house, we don't set the agenda. the chairman of each committee set the agenda to get topics on. everything you watch on c-span is controlled by the republicans. if we do not have enough

democrats to chair the committee's, the party is over. host: a lot on the table. your response? guest: i think democrats nancy pelosi an enormous debt of gratitude. nancy pelosi an enormous debt of gratitude. i do not think anyone has raised as much money as she has. having said that, i think there are a fair number of -- a decent number of sitting democrat members and other candidates that like her a lot and respect her a lot and are in or miss the grateful for everything she has said and done for the party, but who think it is time to move on. that is a sort of growing sentiment out there, and i say that with no malice towards her whatsoever. this is now getting to be a pretty loud noise out there.

the only thing that is pushing back is there is not one or two alternatives that look really strong, that we say that person could be her -- beat her one-on-one. there have been a lot of rising stars in the democratic party that have left the house. there is not one or two. they have some people that are real rising stars. , maybe its their time is a few years away from their time. i will make a prediction. congressman joe kennedy, this guy will be a star. he is going to be a president, vice president, or leader in congress one of these days. he is still fairly young and has a very young family, so i don't know that he is ready personally to move up.

'he ground swell for democrats change, it is getting pretty loud. i do not say that as a criticism of her, more just provide we are -- just the vibe we are picking up. host: our guest is charlie cook and our next caller is steve from marina del rey, california, republican. caller: i agree with the guest that we will know very quickly if the democrats will take control of the house, the cause the competitive races that you have. in new jersey, for example, the weber race, the vance race, it looks like the jurors -- new jersey can go the same way as massachusetts where you may have one or two republicans from new jersey. mcarthur and smith will probably survive. guest: you know a lot about

congressional races from the other coast. republicans have done really well in new jersey in recent years, for a state that has a natural democratic tilt. it is going to be tested. it is going to be really tested in this election. new jersey, pennsylvania, virginia, we will get a really nightdea then of what the is like. in your state of california, there are like seven competitive races. we will have a good idea the direction of the evening is going, but until the votes are counted in california, what the numbers will be we do not know. republicans are hoping that this gas tax initiative, repeal a fairly new gas tax, they are hoping that will bring out republican voters in california.

maybe it does, maybe it doesn't. they desperately need help. tariffshe president's taking a toll on pivotal pennsylvania." there are similar headlines. guest: we have the next several weeks to look at the polling data because small town, rural america, the farm economy, that has been bedrock trump country. the tariffs, this issue is testing the. showve not seen data to agublicans dropping in these areas yet. i would not be surprised to see it happen some. so many people are not voting their economic self-interest anymore. they are voting culture and

geography, and there is a lot in small-town, rural america, farm ,conomy, where president trump a lot of them believe he is speaking to them. what we are specifically walking -- watching are the soybean districts. if there is following in the farm economy against republicans, it will happen in soybean districts first. i am watching the data real closely. i have not seen it yet. host: from lancaster, california, tom, republican line. caller: i got a book for you. movementof the flower ." host: who is the author? caller: who is the author? the new york bestseller david

graham. host: ok, thank you. toler: here is my comment the people of america. people in the rural districts watch what is going on with the political press. we just had the fbi take secondhand information from, i the gpsow who it was, that looked at hillary servers. there might have been some other stuff on their. -- on there. what about the people who got immunity? host: thank you. guest: i think it was the wikileaks that published the things off of hillary clinton's , ands that were hacked in the u.s. intelligence community clearly believes that it was

people affiliated with russian andlligence who hacked in who got the material to wikileaks. i am not saying that made the difference in the election. when you have 137 million people vote and the election basically comes down to 78,000 people, there are probably 50 things that made a difference in that election. the emails were -- i think it was a factor that made a different in states like pennsylvania, wisconsin, that president tron -- president trump won by 7/10 of one point. i think for someone to point to hillary's emails and not concede ,hat that damaged her greatly and very possibly cost her the election, i think ignoring that

necessarily done impartially. story, it was very costly for her in this election. i would not act like she has gotten out scot-free on this. what can you do to someone short --killing them that is worst worse than costing them the presidency? host: the races to watch according to charlie cook, there are five key ones. in florida, indiana, missouri, north dakota, and west virginia. among the republican tossup states, the open seat with jeff flake, dean heller, and in tennessee and other open seat. bonnie in bellevue, washington, democrats lying. -- line. caller: this is washington state

, sometimes and ignored state when it comes to the election. a pretty divided state. mountains,st of the we have a very hotly contested race because we do not have a good democratic candidate yet with dave reichert retiring. republicans, they are very gerrymandered districts running across the mountains. guest: we have that race rated as a tossup. i was referring earlier to presidential voting. we have something available on our website, cook political.com, call the partisan voting index where we look at the last two elections for the districts and how does it compare to the rest of the country.

this is one of a few districts that are absolutely even, where it has no tilt, democrat or republican. this is one of the hottest races in the country. because it is on the west coast, it will be really late or the next day, at least for those of us on the east coast to know who comes out ahead. i would not sell yourself short if you are a republican, because this is going to be a pretty good race. i remember meeting dale rossi when he ran 10, 12 years back. host: let's go to upstate new york in buffalo, joe, democrats line. caller: good morning. a question and an opinion. up here, i think it is the 27th district you have chris collins. i have that heard a word about the ethics investigation about his insider trading.

i am also wondering about how partys the democratic backing nate mcmurray? i have not seen any commercials and if i was living in south carolina, i would be seeing commercials now for november. your thoughts? ,uest: this is a district talking about the partisan voting index, that votes 11 points more republican than the rest of the country. i do not even know if there are democrats in congress that represent districts that tilt this far republican. we have this race rated as solid republican and if a district is solid republican this kind of year, it is really solid. i would not expect to see a lot of ads. democrats, for both parties, you funnel your money where you think it will make the most difference. i doubt if you see any party,

national party money at all on either side going into this because there are over 100 races that are more competitive than this one. all those 100 will not be that well-funded. i would not hold your breath to see national party funded ads. host: in minnesota, you have one and eight as top races for democrats, and a senate candidate appointed running statewide. what impact will that have on these races? have: first of all, people -- a lot of people have this idea of minnesota, that was hubert humphrey's state and walter mondale's state, very democratic. keep in mind, hillary clinton carried minnesota by two points or three. it was pretty close. when you saw donald trump carry

wisconsin, minnesota was not far behind. this is not nearly as democratic state as a lot of people see. we have got in minnesota the first district, we have that is a tossup race. it is a district that has a republican tilt presidentially, but it is one of the better chances that democrats have in the country. we have three tossups, the first, second, and third districts, as well as the eighth. now that i think about it, when i was talking about new jersey, pennsylvania, virgin you -- virginia, minnesota is not as early in the evening but when you are looking for pockets of really close races, i do not think i fully appreciated that minnesota has a concentration of really tight house races that is probably as great as any other state. host: tom from chicago, our line

for republicans. caller: i would like to ask mr. cook, back in 1994 you predicted the democrats would lose 25, 30 seats. robert novak was the only one that predicted the republicans would take over for the house for the first time in 40 years. in a volatile year like this, i think everything is up for grabs. your thoughts? guest: i think in a funny sort of way, you are kind of making a point i should have made. when you see these kind of wave years like republicans had in 1994, when we went through and counted up races, where do republicans have a chance of winning, you have a really hard -- you could get them to 25 and you might be able to get democrats needed

40 seats to get a majority in that election. they hit 52. when you have a wave, there is a cascading effect. it is like the dominoes are a start going one way. that's all start going one way. on election night in 1994, that case getting -- cascading really took effect. we knew republicans would have a heck of a year. we did not know how good it would be. that is kind of the dynamic that may well be here, because these things, as i said at the beginning of the show, we have never seen midterm election dynamics reverse course after midsummer. bighese things tend to go -- when you have a wave and there is every reason to believe there is a wave out there, they tend to go bigger than expected,

more than the seat count. that mistake that we made understating the magnitude of a wave in 1994, when the next ways 2010, 2014, we tried awfully hard not to make that same mistake. host: you predicted the republicans getting back the house in 2010 and the democrats winning in 2006. from miami, larry is next on the republican line. caller: just one comment i wanted to make and i will go to something else. should barack obama be indicted by the israeli government for his interference in the israeli election? to me, if there is russian interference in our election, that is nothing to the hatred that i see on the left. 24/7snbc, cnn, it is

nothing of hatred for trump. host: how does that sentiment play out? guest: the first part of the question, i know absolutely nothing about israeli elections or any involvement of any americans in israeli politics. i cannot address that whatsoever . we are in a period of hyper partisanship. i think our country is as badly decided today as it has been at any point since reconstruction. years underight president obama, we saw an intensity of hatred among not all, but a lot of conservatives and republicans that effectively helped lead to the creation of the tea party movement and other things. it was pretty darn intense.

now, with president trump, we are seeing exactly the same thing flipped around and we are seeing it on the left. to liberal shows today, you will see something that looks a lot like what you saw on conservative networks and shows back during the eight years of obama. i think it is kind of unfortunate all the way around that we have people now living in ideological silos on the left and right where it is building up in intensity, this hyper partisanship. it is effectively making it very hard for governing. our governing process is built on the idea of compromise and building a consensus, and it is next to impossible to build that kind of consensus to govern on so many issues now, regardless of whether it is republicans or

democrats in the majority or in the white house. you are seeing a lot of the trail aimed at president -- vitr trumpmed at president like you were saying aimed at president obama. host: as we did you a snapshot of what is happening in key congressional districts that will determine control of the next congress, here is an ad by a democratic candidate. >> people in central ohio want to invest in their own communities and see a return on investment. i will work with congressional republicans, president trump, and congressional democrats. folks will sit down and be serious about committing to rebuild this country. we have a chance to send a message, not about partisanship but about pragmatism. that is what is at stake. host: that goes to your point of compromise.

guest: absolutely. tiberi a seat where pat resigned from congress who was very much an effective member and a consensus builder. c-span watchers will hear a lot about ohio 12 between now and the august special election. this one, i am not sure why it is not getting as much attention as the pennsylvania 18 special won,ion that conor lamb but republicans are watching very nervously. close one, andry i think democrats are not trying to overly raise expectations. this will be a big-time special that in the dog days of august, a lot of political junkies will be paying a lot of attention to ohio 12. it is basically the suburbs,

northern suburbs and part of columbus, ohio. host: only one network will give you the debates to these key house and senate governor races as we partner with local tv partners across the country. we hope you tune into c-span networks as we give you a snapshot into the races from now through election day. market -- margaret from dover, new hampshire. caller: i am looking at the new hampshire congressional race. i am thinking there are too many people running. we do not have the primary until september, but it is kind of like when trump ran. there were too many republicans running and they hung on too long. i look at this race and i see lincoln sold dotty and bernie son and a bunch of

other people. i saw you in washington at the mayflower about 40 years ago. the one thing i remember -- host: 40 years ago? guest: probably 30 and change. caller: i remember you said there are only two kinds of campaigns, those based on hope and fear. do you still believe that? host: a good memory. guest: this is something -- i have been involved in politics since 1972. if you take the emotions of love and hate, and this is really sad to say, but hate is a far more powerful motivation in politics than love. if i were running, if i had a choice of having voters love me

or hate my opponent, i would rather have them hate my opponent. it is true. the thing is, in midterm elections, one third fewer people vote then in a presidential year. if you are in a party that just won the presidential election and you are in congress, hopefully you vote, but people tend to be satisfied and complacent. it is the other party that lost that election that is out of part -- power. anger, fear, hate, that is what drove republicans in 2010 and 2014 in the obama midterm elections. it drove democrats in 2006 and it is driving democrats in this one. that is why it is one side voters are more motivated than the other. it is hate, fear, anxiety, all

of that. in september, i will be coming to the politics and eggs breakfast in new hampshire. maybe i will see you there. host: let me go back to tom stier with an eye on 2020. 2018,ms of an impact in will he have an influence on midterm elections? he calls for the reelection of president trump. guest: i have met tom stier a couple times. smart guy, very successful in private equity. , ih all due respect to him think he is doing democrats an enormous amount of damage, that every time the word "impeachment" is mentioned, it 15,000, 5000, 10,000, it motivates trump supporters. it motivates conservatives and republicans.

democrats are already pretty motivated and where that ramps up are in places where democrats do not need votes. the thing is, if i were a democratic consultant i would tell candidates in competitive races, do not use the word get anywhere or near it if you are in a competitive district. say -- stayi would away from the word "single-payer." these are two things that define democrats in a pejorative way with swing voters, and motivate conservative republicans, tea party, a great deal. i think tom stier -- i am sure he believes totally in what he is doing and saying -- but i think it is enormously counterproductive for anyone that wants democrats to win a majority. host: to western pennsylvania,

patricia on the democrats line. turn the volume down on your set. i think we lost her. guest: i thought sharon was outside philadelphia. you would know. host: it is between pittsburgh and erie. ,hat is mike kelly's district in a race that leans republican but facing a democratic challenger. guest: i have a son and daughter-in-law that live outside of pittsburgh. host: mike kelly seat? guest: i think they are in the kelley district. john in sanl go to antonio, texas, good morning. caller: good morning, charlie. i was going over the vote totals -- or or gustier ortez

ghazi a ortez race -- under 40 was really high. crowley did have one poll that came out three weeks that had him up by 36 points. in the dana balter race in the 24th district, i think the same thing happened. her opponent was up by about 12 points. as the left becomes more ascended in the democrat party, are these polling's becoming less relevant? it costs a lot of money and only s usedod polars -- poller cell phone to a certain extent. guest: good question. next time you go to rudy's

barbecue, think about me. it is the official barbecue sauce of the cup household. in that primary in new york that joe crowley lost, i think there are things that are important and things that are less important. we need to remember that that district was like 25% white. american,ged, irish white, irish-american white guy who has been in congress for 20 years representing a district that is a atypicaly, this is situation. turnout, the last number i saw was 12%. when you have turnouts that low, any kind of polling is problematic.

i understand that he had a poll that had him on an initial ballot at 30 points ahead. there were warning signs. that was atypical. you are right that the good pollsters have substantial numbers of self interviews. that is the difference between the good and the bad. listeners, a lot of them are skeptical about polling. keep in mind that looking at the national polling, it was pretty close. national polls mazer the national popular vote and the national average was three points and clinton one. -- clinton won. was polling in wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania that

was far off and a lot of those did not have any or many cell phone interviews done. that is where there was a misfire. the national polling was pretty good and it was closer than 2012. it was closer than it turned out. we will beie cook, talking to often as we move into the elections. your last day here in washington before heading up to maine. of the cookublisher report and people can follow you on the web. i am charlie cook dc on twitter. i am 64 and i'm not a technology guy. thank you and thank you for the viewers. youruys are great in commitment to poli

as part of our alaska weekend coverage, andy new and michael doyle talk about various proposals to change hunting regulations in alaska. amy harter how it's affecting alaska and other states. be sure to watch "washington journal" saturday morning. join the discussion. >> sunday night on q&a, grace nny warnicky discusses the memoir "daughter of the cold

war." >> i met putin in 1991. >> was he deputy mayor then? >> he was deputy mayor. i was running my business consulting from. i had a client who wanted to do something with the port offer st. peterburg. i had a meeting with the real mayor. they substituted the deputy mayor putin and i was -- because i wasn't meeting with the mayor. i knew he had been k.g.b. i was so negative about it all. and he came in. he was equally negative. he didn't want to meet an american woman who wanted to run a business. i think he was very suspicious of women. he had no gallantry. and he had the coldest eyes i've ever seen. very big, blue cold eyes. and all i could think of is i wonder what would happen if