>> now the 2018 mid terms and elections, this recent "washington journal" discussion is about an hour. "washington j" continues. host: we want to welcome back a longtime friend, charlie cook of the cook political report. you have been on this network for more than 30 years. guest: i think i was on c-span the first year that it was on the air. it is always fun and it was an important part of my career. that is why i religiously come back when you ask. the: i want to get to 30,000 foot level and then we will drill down to some of these races. it is mid july, the election is november, and a lot can happen. what does it feel like? guest: it looks like in the house, democrats need a net gain of 23 seats. it looks like it will be in the

20 to 35 seat range, some more likely than not that the house flips but it might not. usually, the dynamics in midterm elections start setting by midsummer. we have never had it reverse course from this point on, but at the same time, the senate looks a lot more likely than not to stay in republican hands. republicans need to be worried about governor's and state legislative seats. three quarters of our governorships and 4/5 of our state legislative seats will be up in november. given all the power that has gone out to the states, that is a big deal. everybody always says, the upcoming election is the most important since moby dick was a guppy. this one is important with the house on the line. this is a really big one. host: republicans have neil gorsuch on the supreme court, a brick kavanaugh number -- brett

kavanaugh nomination, and a strong economy. democrats running against donald trump, what is their message? guest: i would not want to make this election up or down on president trump. i would not try to introduce a lot of messaging. what was the slogan that democrats just unveiled, we the people. they ought to keep this a referendum up or down. to the extent they get specific on anything, they run the risk of giving republicans ammunition to use against them. i would keep this as a referendum and if i were a republican, i would try to focus on what concrete things have happened on capitol hill and try to localize and individualize it , and try to keep it away from being a referendum up or down of president trump. host: one of the states republicans have targeted is florida.

rick scott is seeking the senate seat held by bill nelson. here is a relatively new ad from the scott campaign taking aim at senator nelson and the democrats. >> how much does bill nelson toe the party line? he voted with hillary clinton 89%, with obama 98%. democratic presidents have on -- nominated more than 100 judges -- 700 judges. you cannot get more partyline than that. lastnelson, 31st, florida -- party first, florida last. guest: i think it is one of the best 2, 3, or four senate races of this year, one of the most competitive. rick scott, the governor meets all the tests of what is a top level challenger.

statewide name recognition at the beginning of the race, statewide organization at the beginning of the race, all the money he could possibly need, and four, he has one tough -- won tough statewide elections before. it is about as purple a state as you can get. host: let's get to nevada, one of the states the democrats hope to pick up. dean heller has an ad on the air. >> i and jacky rosen and i approved this message. >> they call him senator spineless, first promising to vote against obamacare -- >> heller from nevada is a no. >> i cannot support a piece of legislation that takes insurance from tens of millions of americans. >> but then, dean heller got pressure from his party leaders. >> threats from president trump,

loud and clear. >> you are not there but you will be. >> he broke his promise and voted for a repeal. >> a deciding vote. >> that is a complete 180. >> he decided not to cross trump. >> the plan would allow insurance companies to charge people over 50 up to five times more than young people and what and -- what end sections for pre-existing conditions. host: the democratic ad and nevada, size at that race. guest: republicans only have nine seats up and only five are in serious jeopardy. dean heller is the only incumbent in real jeopardy. it will be very close. one thing about, heller does not have a strong personality. there are not a lot of people who loathe him and there are not

a lot of people who would walk on hot coals for him. , this ist of members going to be a party vote as much or more than anything else. host: look at tennessee, because it is an interesting race where you have a republican nominee, an open seat with bob corker a former democratic governor who is ahead in the polls. this is a seat republicans thought they would keep. guest: tennessee is a state where if you just said, what does a generic republican or democrat do? they are giving the former two-term governor, he is probably be the only living democrat in the state that could win. on the republican side, marsha blackburn will be the republican nominee and she has got a very strong personality. a polarizing person. she might have a tougher time

than joe or jane generic republican. that is what makes this race so close and one of the premier races. host: nancy pelosi is running in her congressional district but she is on the ballot in a lot of key races. aca help or hindrance? want this tot sound disrespectful in any way to nancy pelosi, but if she announced today that she was resigning from congress, there would probably be people jumping out of windows at the national republican congressional committee because they do not really have hillary clinton to beat up anymore, they do not have president obama anymore. nancy pelosi is one of their arrows in their quiver against democrats. it will work in some places. it worked in the georgia six special election last year.

she is not nearly as big a demon for republicans to be done as clinton and president obama more. -- were. i can see democrats getting to 218 seats in this election. it is a little harder to see, where does nancy pelosi get 218 votes for speaker if democrats win a majority. it is not animosity towards her personally, but there is a generational time for a change thing. the biggest argument for pelosi surviving this is there isn't a single, or even two really strong contenders that you could point to and say, that person could be pelosi. if she survives, it will be the absence of any unified op. cit. -- opposition. host: let's look at a national ad from the rnc and then we will look at arkansas.

the rnc, as the republican party does take aim at the former house speaker, now democratic leader in the house of representatives. nancy pelosi, right now, i guess we could call her the incoming speaker of the house of representatives. cancel --ld like to raise taxes? >> the second part is accurate. >> the economy has been losing jobs for months. >> yes, we will raise taxes. >> officials call it a regulations tsunami. >> anti-immigration marches to abolish ice. >> a growing sense the u.s. military has significantly changed and not for the better. >> similar mismanagement within

the veterans benefits administration. theig personnel cuts by u.s. army, the latest in a series of downsizing those. -- moves. >> what i represent and senator sanders and senator warren, that is the nature. pathetic, just like giving you a bowl of doggie doo, put a cherry on top and call it a chocolate sundae. host: is the ad effective? guest: in some districts it will be. this is a district largely in therban america and unlike senate races, they will be -- this is a suburban district and in some places it will be effective. host: the latest in-house ratings in terms of those that democratic tossups, only

two. republican tossups, 25. in arkansas, this is an ad also focusing on nancy pelosi. >> congressman hill opened his campaign by attacking me, knowing full well that i said i will not vote for nancy pelosi. we are better than that. i am the only candidate in this race who has worked with both parties to protect health care, strengthen education, and empower entrepreneurs. i will do the same in congress because my priority is our families and our future, not the politics of the past. i am part tucker and i approved this message. host: charlie cook? guest: that is a pretty good deflection add. we are seeing quite a few democrats, not incumbents, that are saying if i win i will not vote for nancy pelosi. host: look at this headline from

politico that has pictures of those individuals. guest: again, i don't think it is personal towards her but a lot of it is generational and some of it is political survival. this year, there were 435 seats. we basically know who was going to win in 335 them. there are 100 we are watching and of them, about 60 are competitive. when you have a midterm election with a president with low approval ratings, they don't knock off many seats from the other side. that explains why there are so few democratic seats in jeopardy, is when you have the wind going one way it is hard to go against the strength. largely, the competitive races are mostly not going to be in the deep south, but arkansas which is basically little rock is one of the few.

that is one of the few deep south republican districts that are in danger. it is basically right in and immediately around little rock, so it is not a small town, rural district. ,epublicans have to even worry even in the deep south because hillary clinton and barack obama kept the republican party together in the south. the absence of that allows democrats to kind of run more under their own flag a little bit. host: we are talking with charlie cook from the cook political report. a bellwether of what to expect in midterm politics, that is our focus from illinois, bob is on the phone on the republican line. caller: good morning. love c-span. i got a question about the maxine waters race. there are differing accounts online.

some say she does not live in her district and some say she does. if she does not live in her district, can she run? guest: i have no earthly idea whether maxine waters lives in her congressional district or not. for the u.s. house of representatives, there is no legal requirement anywhere to live in your district. ,ou need to live in your state but there is no legal requirement. things thatry few we are sure of in life -- death and taxes are two. democrats do not lose districts that are as overwhelming as hers, and she has no race. living in a district that is not a legal requirement. it can be a political hit. we have seen members and competitive districts lose

because they had an apartment that they rarely went to back in the state or the district. that was political, not legal, and not in a district as overwhelmingly democratic as this one. host: from norwich, new york, carol on the democrats line. caller: i have two questions. one is about the race between claudia tenney and anthony brindisi. i wonder how he would handicap it. and in the other thing you would like to say about that district. my second question is about a relatively new book by alan abramowitz called "the great realignment," about race, party, and transformation of the party system with the rise of trump. i wondered what he thought of that book. host: thank you. guest: alan abramowitz is a friend of mine and a terrific

political scientist at emory university. i have his book on my bed stand. it is waiting to be read as soon as i finished john mccain's book, which i am mostly through. , ourh david wasserman house editor, was here, because he is our granular effort. york,rk 22, upstate new this is the republican incumbent claudia tenney in a district that in presidential elections votes six points more republican than the rest of the country. level playing field, democrats might have a chance of winning this one but it would be pretty uphill. haveyear when republicans some headwinds, democrats have some tailwinds as appears now, this is one that is in play. we have this race rated as a

tossup, which means it is one of the top -- it would be one of the 30 best chances democrats have of knocking off a republican. this is a top-tier democratic challenge. host: let me turn to another 2021, one ofork the youngest republican female candidates to be elected to the house of representatives. guest: that is why you can't go just hard and fast by the numbers. in this case, it is a slightly less republican district than in the 22nd. in the 22nd, the one the caller asked about, democrats have a top-tier, really good challenger . democrats do not have a good

challenger particularly against her and we haven't rated as solid. -- have it rated as solid. she is not going to lose, let's put it that way. host: in pennsylvania, the first congressional district, brian fitzpatrick and you have it leaning republican but it has been giving -- getting some attention. this is a race to watch on whether the republicans keep or lose the house of representatives. why? guest: it is a suburban district. win a majority, it will be through suburban districts like bucks county, montgomery, box, delaware, chester county. host: the ring around the city. ofst: these are the kind districts democrats have to win to get a majority.

this is one of the very most vulnerable, in that concentric tear. r. tie new jersey, pennsylvania, virginia would be the three states early on election night where you will see results coming in where you will get a sense if democrats are likely to get 23 or more, and this is a race i would look at. host: virginia is certainly one of those. guest: bobber construct -- bobber con stock -- barbara comstock is more vulnerable. she is not toast, but has a really challenging situation. host: brad in international falls, minnesota, thank you for waiting. caller: good morning to both of you. we are talking about this midterm election and whatnot. the senate pretty well will have

between 59 and 61 republicans, pretty solid. on the house side -- guest: let me interrupt. right now there are 51. caller: like you say, there is only nine republicans up on the ballot. basically the remaining of the 33 are democrats. they are going to lose more -- about half. on the house side, there were be about 235, 240 >> we'll leave this conversation to go live now to the u.s. house. can you see the rest of it online at c-span.org. house members continue to work today on health care related bills. including one to expand health savings accounts and lower premium health insurance plans. both expected before 2:00 p.m. eastern today. members could also debate national flood insurance legislation. now to live coverage of the u.s. house here