complained to me about brexit is access to the best global talent. they say look at silicon valley, they have the best talent in the world, and in london is a leader in many areas of tech globally and they want access to the best talent in the world. hopefully, brexit will have a policy where we can reach out to the best people in the world. >> watch monday night at 8:00 eastern on c-span two. >> next, from "washington journal," a look at key races ahead of the 2018 midterm elections. german followed by chancellor angela merkel taking questions from reporters in berlin about trade with the u.s. and president trump's recent meeting with vladimir putin. and later, secretary of state mike pompeo talks at a religious read him form hosted by the state department.

joining us from columbus, ohio is sean trende. he is an analyst for real clear politics. thank you for being with us. guest: think you for having me. host: i want to talk about some of the races to watch. and one in your part of the country, a special election scheduled for early next month. talk to us about the candidate and why this is a potentially bellwether for democrats and republicans. guest: this is a bellwether for both democrats and republicans because it is the kind of district you would expect democrats to be competitive in any way election. credible candidates on both the republican in the democratic side. nominateds have someone too extreme. it is a good test case for what the national environment really is like. this is a district donald trump

won handily. even if the democrats are coming close, it is indicative of a bad national environment for republicans. host: let's talk about danny o'connor, the democrat, and tribal percent, the republican candidate. it -- an open seat. a congressman has stepped down from that position. -- with dannygain o'connor, you have a democrat that is been around politics for around -- politics for a while and is generally well-respected. someone who is not particularly objectionable one way or the other aside from the fact he is a democrat in a republican district. balderson is the same thing. he is someone who is solidly conservative but fits the district well parent in a normal environment. you would expect to see

balderson win handedly. host: what do the poll show you in that race? -- what do the polls show you in that race? guest: it showed balderson up 10. it caused a lot of people to say, maybe this isn't such a competitive phrase, which is good news for republicans. the o'connor campaign, polls showed him down, too. we estimate he is probably down five points or so, but that makes sense because o'connor has raised a ton of money. he is on the air more. so, he definitely has the tools to make this a tight race. i think it is probably going to be republicans -- i think it is probably going to be closer than republicans would like. >> that is troy balderson running for congress. why do people look so happy?

it is because balderson supports massive tax breaks. and what would that mean for us? his plan could mean cuts to medicare and social security. and balderson even said he had no problem raising the retirement age. troy balderson, it is not funny at all. money, seanch phrase?is spent on that -- spent on that race? guest: it is unusual for those sorts of phrases. --s is a district usually seven or eight points more republican as a whole. dropping millions on airtime is indicative of how tight this race is getting. host: here is one more at on the air.

[video clip] >> the liberal resistance is demanding open borders and want to limit the law enforcement agency that enforces are immigration laws, opening america's doors to drugs. they want danny o'connor bankrolling his campaign. they know o'connor supports amnesty for illegals and opposes the border wall. getting o'connor would join the resistance -- danny o'connor would join the resistance. host: sean trende, let's go back to what you said earlier. by all accounts, the democratic candidate trying to run a more mainstream campaign, but being tagged by republicans -- guest: that's right. that is what you see and all of these ads that are kind of exaggerated versions. if you listen to the ad, it doesn't say he will cut medicaid.

it says the tax breaks could lead to that. this is speculative about the o'connor joining the resistance and signing up with elizabeth warren. in reality, neither of these candidates will be at the extreme of their parties, but you see what the motivating factor is for these parties. they are trying to get their base out. the way you get the base out is convincing the other side is horrifying. o'connor is playing to the inner suburbs of columbus within his , theict, whereas balderson ad for balderson, is trying to energize the more rural areas. host: our phone lines are open. 202-748-8000 the line for democrats. 202-748-8001 for republicans. .ndependents, 202-748-8002

this is a headline the blue wave could be turning into a dead heat in november. do you still believe that? guest: i think things have broken a little bit for the democrats. the generic ballot asked, who do you want to win, republicans or democrats? it had gotten into low single digits. now we are of to mid to high single digits. job approval has been on a long-term increase. but things hit a ceiling at around 43%. i say democrats have an edge. i don't think it is an overwhelming edge, but if the election was held today, they would get a small congressional majority. host: if you look at the map, how many open seats are competitive for the republicans and the democrats? guest: that is a big part of the story. really, the only competitive open seats for the democrats are two seats in minnesota, where

they had one congressman retiring. another one is running for governor. if the republicans have a shot at picking up open things, it is probably here. as for republicans, they -- there are a large number of open seats available. some of them are guaranteed pickups for the democrats, new jersey's second district, one in south florida, where a longtime republican has retired. and then you have more competitive seats that probably went for donald trump or mitt romney, and then went to hillary clinton. that is where the real battle will be in place of the california pennsylvania. host: carr guest is sean trende, a senior analyst for real clear politics joining us from columbus. and lynn is on the line from san antonio, texas. caller: good morning.

i will tell you what, i love your shows and such, but i would not trust real clear politics any further than i can throw them. anything they say as far as i am concerned is full of hooey. and the crazy lady you had on atfore is part of the tin h brigade. you have never seen a businessman at work and don't want to see another one because the politicians and lawyers want sure was to make sure no one ever gets in again. thank you. bye. host: let's talk about the president role in the midterm elections. he will be on the campaign trail , making sure to keep the majority in the house and senate for republicans. what role should the president playing moving ahead? guest: it is interesting because

nationally, he is not terribly popular. he has a 43% job approval, which isn't horrible, but it isn't good either. yet, in some of these districts, he is probably breakeven or popular. he is still very popular with his base as the caller's comment indicated. in a race like ohio's 12, the candidates have to do a dance. they would love to get donald trump out here to energize the rural areas that have lots of trump supporters in them, but they also risk energizing some of the places that are heavily democratic as well. i think the president can do good for republicans, especially in some of these republican districts. but in the democratic-leaning districts or the swing district, i think you will see candidates avoiding him, just as candidates avoided barack obama in swing districts during his presidency.

host: as you go to your site, the generic ballot giving , explain a 7.3% edge to our audience what that means. very expensives to pull individual congressional districts because you have to pull something on the order of 100,000 people. where theyo instead as people, hey, who do you want to win congress, or who do plan on voting for in the next election? can people give their answers. as of right now, on average, people are saying by a seven point margin, they prefer democrats than republicans. this is not a great scenario for republicans. the generic ballot has its problems, but it usually gets within a couple of points of the national margin. host: back to your phone calls. kelly is joining us from new jersey. good morning. caller: well, hi.

thank you for taking my call. there ising because all this democrat and republican. debt.e a $21 trillion 11% -- has an 11% approval rating. -- more has to go through congress. aboute seeing things iran. i am looking for real, fermentable solutions -- formidable solutions. i feel like congress should be doing more. host: thank you, kelly. the dead and the deficit, the nation's dead neck says of $21

trillion. is that an issue among voters, democrats or republicans? think it is to an extent. what we find over and over again, is that average voters don't have an in-depth knowledge of politics and policy. what they have instead is a generalized understanding of things they like and things they don't like. and voters definitely don't like debt. where it really comes into play is with some of these republican strong romneye supporters, who really are concerned deeply about the deficits, you have a fraction of the republican party that is really concerned about the turn it has taken with a massive deficits being run during an economic expansion. is aattle for the house close enough thing that even if you oppress republican turnout, it could be the difference maker and a lot of races. host: many share with you a tweet from the president a short

while ago, talking about the federal government and the potential of a government shutdown. "i would be willing to shut down the government if the democrats do not give us the votes for border security, which includes the wall. must get rid of the lottery, catch and release, etc., and finally go to the system of immigration based on merit. we need great people coming into our country!'s " guest: this is an issue that is based cares about deeply and carries him through a night great way. --carries him through in a great way. he was in favor of, you know, tariffs and constricting immigration at that time. i think a lot of republicans in the swing districts, especially suburban swing district, don't want a government shutdown a few weeks before the election. shutdowns don't have

lasting impact, but whatever impact they have can impact the party in power. i think that is playing with fire. host: cal, good morning. caller: good morning. thank you for c-span. i was reacting, i had a couple of comments, i was lifting to what sean said earlier about a marginal victory for the democrats in midterms. and i had seen that as a result of what i interpreted as a low voter turnout. and the reelection of a lot of incumbents. i feel it will result in a slightly shaped stalemate seat majority of the democrats we would need. and also, it doesn't provide any

momentum to form any kind of candidacy or solidify against any candidate that can even hope to beat trump in 2020. i just wanted your reaction. host: thanks, cal. guest: i think people should not this miss a narrow house majority and what it can do. policy,y in terms of generating a national figure, it is unlikely to do that. at the same time, a majority of one gives you all the speakers him all the chairman's gavels. that is important because you will have some very strong partisan democrats running these committees. and that is key for investigations. people who one is see donald trump tax returns -- donald trump's tax returns. fightsill be massive

over subpoenas and investigations, even with the narrowest of democratic majorities. next fromna is maryland with sean trende. his work available on realclearpolitics.com. good morning. caller: good morning. can you hear me? host: we sure can. caller: i am in laurel, maryland, close to riverdale. thanks for c-span. i think you all are doing a great job. my comment is, if we had someone in office, i'm speaking about donald trump, that was not filled with hatred and lies, including the other people with income i think the country would be doing a lot better. right now, these tweets and all of this stuff donald trump sends , it is just ridiculous for people not to realize that we have someone that is unfit to be in that office. , whether unfortunate

you are democrat or republican, it would not matter. the fact that we need a good person with some intelligence to run this country. and we don't have that at this point. isis unfortunately -- it unfortunate that people continue to talk about the base. this basis listening to donald trump is fooled. -- this base that is listening to donald trump is fooled. host: thank you so much for the call. sean trende. think it has been an interesting shift on the character debate for those of us who lived through the clinton presidency. donald trump is a more extreme character than bill clinton, but there is some switching in both parties on this issue. the republican base will go to the -- four donald trump. and that does matter. trump's jobonald

approval is 43% rather than 33%, and that will have a big impact on the middle elections. if you saw him in the low 20's, you would see republicans losing 60, 80 seats. host: i want to mention your website. the top senate races include florida, missouri, indiana, west virginia, nevada, arizona, north dakota, montana, ohio, texas, michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania, and mississippi. arevast majority of them where democrats are on the ballot. explain to the audience how you are able to take a sampling of the polls and then combing up with the real clear politics average? some statistics and math involved that give the deep answer, without resulting

to the large numbers. basically, you know, when you have a single poll, there is always some sort of error involved because you don't know aat the poll is going to have representative sample, or just in general. sometimes you flip a coin four times in a row and it comes up tales every time. to hedge against that, and that is the best way to think of it, hedge against that -- to head against that, -- to hedge against that, you take multiple samples. if you flip a coin four times and it comes up heads every time, it will be one of those flukes of statistics. but if you have 10 coins in you flip them all forward to times, you will say there is something about -- and you flip them all four times, you will say there is something about that coin. polls andtiple

averaging them together, the truth is somewhere in the middle. host: martin is joining us from new jersey. caller: good morning. one of the things that to phone neal said is that all politics is local. i live in middlesex county where the democrat has anointed the candidates for over 100 years. in my community of east brunswick, which is very , there really are not men are women running for office on the local level or on the congressional level, on the township level. as a result, i am not going to vote in the midterms. whether it is for democrats or republicans. the democrats in middlesex county and in new jersey anoint who is going to run, who will be assembly man or

woman position, and as a result, you have to change the situation where people who have a diversified background and an ethnic mix are able to run for election. host: thank you, morton. guest: yeah, i am really glad we got that comment. it is one of the more interesting things in modern politics. tip o'neill made that comment 30 years ago. and our politics have definitely changed greatly since then. we have more of a national politics today, a politics that is based on national issues. and that does change the character of elections. iu also do still have, and think a lot of people who follow these things don't realize, we do still have genuine political machines in places in this country. new jersey is a state that still has something recognizable.

n accountability and can hurt turnout. at the same time, refusing to vote can be self-defeating there. it is kind of giving in to the machine of what the machine wants. i would encourage voters everywhere to make your voice heard. host: let's turn to one of the key battleground states, north dakota. being challenged by kevin cramer. on your site, based on the polling from the spring and early summer, you give the edge to the republican, but barely by .5%. if we can go to this but the codefendant rates and show it to our audience. let's look at one of the ad now on the air in north dakota for heidi heitkamp. [video clip] >> i was a deputy sheriff for 42 years and i voted for the president. unfortunately, kevin cramer must've misled.

heidi voted several times for legal immigrants to convict crimes. lawn orderough attorney general, and we need to keep her in the senate. >> i'm heidi heitkamp and i approved this message. host: the democrat heidi heitkamp seeking another term. this is a state where donald trump won and 2016. this is the ad on the air for kevin cramer. [video clip] >> president trump on heidi heitkamp and the democrat agenda. pres. trump: democrats want judges who will rewrite the constitution. the democrats are always fighting against funding for the military, and funding for law enforcement. for any democrat in november is a vote for schumer, pelosi and -- democrats want open borders and

for horrible sanctuary cities. every single democrat, voted against our tax cuts. you need a senator who doesn't just talk like they are from north dakota. but votes like they are from north dakota. and that is kevin cramer. [applause] as you look at the north dakota senate race, what are you sensing on the ground? how much support does the president have? and is the cabin not nomination critical for heidi heitkamp? guest: all indications are that the president remains popular in north dakota. he is not in a 70% approval situation, but he is deafening more popular than that. you can see that in both ads for

both candidates are trying to attach themselves to president trump. the brett kavanaugh nomination is a tough vote for heidi heitkamp and all the democrats running that trump carried by substantial majorities. because the way you win as a candidate in the states is by convincing enough republicans that you are close enough to them on issues they care about that had you in the senate is were some of the votes you might cast if they don't like. for heidi heitkamp, it is a very tough call because the democratic base in the state does not want her to vote for brett kavanaugh. she risks alienating them if she votes. at the same time, republicans are invested in this as well, and was sorely alienate -- and would certainly alienate some by voting no. host: some states like florida, tennessee, indiana, north

dakota, arizona and nevada. right now, you west virginia, which is a senator running for second term and light blue. what does that tell you? guest: this is a race that a lot of people thought would be very close. it may end up close by the end of the cycle. but what we have seen in the polls is that joe manchin, and democrat, blue-collar on personality level comes actually polling quite well. he is not above 50%, which is still a danger sign, but is close. for right now, at least, we think joe manchin has the edge. the most of the undecideds very much like the president and approve of his job. so we suspect that those will break against joe manchin. will benator manchin

among the first them across to me with brett kavanaugh this week. marcia is joining us from port, oregon. good morning. caller: good morning. thanks for taking my call. yes, i wanted to mention really quick that i am working on my doctorate and getting to the end here in business administration. that iwanted to say was am pretty sure that president trump understands negotiation theory -- negotiation very, very well. i don't think it is a bad thing yellow president coming in with economic --with an with an economist background. i think people should not put in motion into everything -- put emotion into everything. host: thank you for the call. we will get a response. guest: first, congratulations

for working on the end of your doctorate. that is a huge accomplishment. there is a debate actually among pundits as to what degree president trump is playing chess and what degree he is playing checkers. and you get heated debates on one side or the other. we have seen instances where the president has acted more strategic than he is giving -- then he is given credit for. at the same time, i don't think you can chalk everything up to him being a master chessplayer. politics is about perception. if the american people don't understand what you are doing and you start to give off this perception of not knowing what you are doing, even if you are plan some sort of chess, it hurts you and her ability to get your agenda through. host: does the mueller investigation impact the midterm elections? lott: you know, i think a

-- borrowing some sort of true bombshell dropped at the last moment and an october surprise, or an indictment of the president or a close family member, i think a lot of the mueller stuff is well baked in by this point. i think people have their process -- iow the think people have their opinions on how to process the mueller investigation. i don't think it will likely change the trajectory of things. joe donnelly seeking a second term. good morning. caller: good morning, c-span. and thank you for your excellent guest as usual. i have a personal, and a question. my personal comment is i am one of the independent voters that trump lost. i completely regret having voted for him in the last election.

and i will do everything in my power to change the situation. my question is this -- host: why do you regret it? caller: i have had my internet neutrality attacked. i see a president that appears to angiving safe harbor individual, putin, who seems to be the driver behind state-sponsored cyber attacks. their power grid will be attacked soon. this is an act of war, if nothing else. this is the legal definition of treason. isoray for comfortable about a verydent who has -- i feel uncomfortable about a president will slide since being in office -- about a president who has lied since being in office. i regret my decision. i need to be able to trust the

commander -- the commander-in-chief and i don't trust this president. host: thank you for the call from indiana. see a lot ofk you what i was talking about to the last question. let's assume donald trump is play some type of chess. and i heard people say that trump is nice to putin in person because thing he is allowed greater attitude to do anti-russian actions. and there have been some web and quiet like the disarming of ukrainian rebels in the bombing in syria. those are not things russia really wants. i have no idea whether that is true are not because i am not a foreign-policy expert. but what i do know is that a lot of american voters have gotten the impression that he is playing along with putin. and if there is some larger strategy here, he is not communicating it to the voters. and that is one of the things that you cannot separate politics from policy.

if your policy does not match up with public perception, you will pay a price and you will lose voters, like the last caller. host: final question for you -- as you look at the historical trends for a party in power based on that, what can we expect in november? guest: there have been three exceptions dating back to the civil war. going into the selection of republicans would have a rough one. what makes this different issue have a president who has a job approval and the low 40's. yellow number of retirements in vulnerable seats. now, the only saving grace for the republicans is that the economy is going strong. that will convince some voters in the end. but i suspect and again, there is a lot of football left to be played. but i suspect you will see something on the order of

democratic majority in the 230 seats. host: sean trende is joining us from columbus, ohio parikh his work is available >> as president trump's threatens security clearances, several members of the obama administration tells us how security clearances work and the process needed to obtain them. an article is discussed about the recent tax law that allows corporations --

be sure to watch c-span's washington journal live monday morning at 7:00 eastern. join the discussion. >> on c-span at next week in primetime. monday, former president george w. bush and bill clinton on lessons in a life of politics. tuesday, a nasa administrator on president trump's opposable to create a military space force. wednesday, the 2018 national governors association summer meeting on transformation of the workforce by artificial intelligence. thursday at 10:00 p.m., the netrrooots conference from new orleans. netrootsore from the conference with senators elizabeth warren, kamala harris and deborah holland. next week in primetime on c-span, c-span.org, and the

c-span radio app. are 25 minutes. a very warm welcome to a press conference with the chancellor. you have the floor. >> i am glad somebody's counting the number of press conference. good morning, ladies and gentlemen. it is indeed the case that