more openly hostile. >> watch on c-span and www.c-span.org, and listen on the free c-span radio app. a also tonight on c-span, senate homeland security committee hearing from this morning on protecting unaccompanied immigrant children. from human trafficking and abuse. to watch that at 9:30 p.m. eastern on c-span. in a few weeks, the senate judiciary committee begins confirmation hearings for supreme court nominee brett kavanaugh. he testifies tuesday, september 4. chuck grassley says he expects the confirmation hearing to last three or four days. you can watch the hearings live on our companion network c-span3, online at www.c-span.org, or listen live on the c-span radio app. rafael mangual continues the conversation about gun violence.

good morning. guest: thank you so much for having me. host: in your mind, what is the best way to understand this type of violence? particularly in cities? host:-- guest: i think the best way to understand it is an altar concentrated phenomenon, if you take chicago, the theme of the morning, a lot of people will tell you that the talk about the violence is overblown. so far as the citywide murder rate is not necessarily as high as other smaller cities around the country. the reality is, when you drill down into the data, murders are altar concentrated into a small part of the city where the population is dispersed. the first step is you have to talk about the problems not as citywide or national phenomenons but as hyper localized phenomenons. host: so when you talk about it, in if you look at the hyper local level, what are some of the contributing factors you are

seeing? guest: to me one of the most important contributing factors is the lack of accountability for the criminal class in the cities. chicago in particular, you have too many repeat offenders finding their way back out to the street shortly after an arrest. or a very small amount of time in prison. in chicago the average prison arrest for shooting or homicide had 12 prior arrests. that's a jarring number. what it tells me is that the police are doing a relatively decent job of catching the right people will, but the criminal justice system more broadly has ,o reconsider their practices and thinking about how they can hold these people for longer peppers -- periods of time. host: so where does incarceration fit? guest: i think it's an important

part that will help drive crime down and some of these areas. some critics will say the differences between longer and shorter prison sentences are not really significant, when you look at things like recidivism and likelihood to reoffend. the thing those analysis tend to ignore and something i have been focusing my word on his the incapacitation benefit. irrespective of whether someone is more or less likely to offend if they get out of prison with 20% less time, the reality is that they are behind bars and they cannot hurt anyone. the superintendent in chicago has expressed this in his public talks about how often they will arrest someone and that person will find their way onto the street in a matter of days. host: even as you say that there has been an effort for something broadly known as criminal justice reform, even republican organizations like the koch

brothers have tapped into it. and one of the things is changing the systems, and what you think of that effort especially in might of what you're seeing? guest: there is a way for us to be smart on crime. that is to target these incarceration policies. likelyus people who are to reoffend. but we have to be careful about doing that. just lower the prison population wholesale for its own sake is the wrong way to go about it. i do think there's ever going to be a right number of people that should be behind bars, that number should be driven by crime levels. what we're seeing in cities like chicago and baltimore and st. louis is that some jurisdictions do need more, not less. host: rafael mangual is joining gunhe is here to talk about violence in urgent -- urban

areas. if you want to ask him questions for those748-8000 living in urban areas, for chicago residents it's (202) 748-8001, for all others (202) 748-8002. if you want to tweet us you can do so and post on our facebook. it's not surprising that those in the city of chicago have offered other reasons for this type of violence. let me read one of them, this is the chicago tribune. the fight against crime can be restricted to more better policing, chicago's crime problem is concentrated on a small number of poor, blighted, mostly african-american neighborhoods. those areas low their plight largely to a sordid history of systemic, deliberate, deliberate racial discrimination and violence. conditions that breed rampant crime came about not by accident, but by policy.

what you think about that argument? anst: i think it reflects old notion that crime is not driven by personal behavior but by socioeconomic root causes. criminologists by and large have rejected that. there's a criminological theory , andd mismatch criminologist have done a great job of articulating that there is a loose relationship between socioeconomic indicators and violent crimes. one of the callers on the last segment pointed out that if you shoot someone and do a drive-by, you don't automatically increase your wealth. driven byime is not economic interests, rather it is sparked by anger, sexual , itousy, perceived slights can be something as small as one of your shoes being stepped on as your guest is said earlier.

there are poor and blighted areas in almost every major city , but there are very few places around the country in which you see the levels of violence that have been plaguing the south and west side of chicago. i'm not sure we can reduce it to just economic policy. also in chicago, if you look at the data, everything from economic spending to unemployment rates for black americans is specifically, it's moving in a positive direction. and it has been for a significant. of time -- a significant period of time. to 30% more 15% than the national median. the crime went up, and murders hit 792 in 2016. that's a big jump despite positive movement in these other socioeconomic indicators. i'm not sure there is of a relationship to speak of. there differences

between suburban and urban areas and are their economic arguments that mr. chatman was referring to? are, but there are also very blighted poor areas in other parts of the country that do not see that sort of violence. cities.ween there are parts of chicago's south and west side that are not as dangerous as authors. -- as others. i think this is an oversimplification. i don't think that that means it doesn't play a role but it is not the driving factor is not the driving factor. people are undervaluing what and incarceration practices can do in the short term to stem the tide. host: mr. mangual joins us for the next half hour. you are on with rafael mangual of the manhattan institute. go ahead.

one thing i have noticed in cities that traditionally run democrats is where the crime and poverty rates are the highest. votingone think about for someone else? isn't the definition of insanity according to einstein doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result? the people you are voting for our taking into account your needs. thank you. host: mr. mangual? chicago has traditionally been a very blue city. i don't think we can simplify this to a matter of partisan politics. new york is a democrat city for a long time now. we have been able to keep our crime at bay. los angeles, you see the same

thing. crime did go down in chicago for a significant period of time. if you have the right policing and incarceration practices, you will see good results over time no matter who is in office. host: west virginia on the line for others, richard, go ahead. caller: pedro? host: go ahead. caller: good morning. i would like to apologize to your guest for interrupting, but i have been trying to get in since the program started at 5:00 in wyoming about the myth that you can go to indiana and buy 20 guns and bring them into chicago. the federal law is that a dealer cannot sell a handgun to a nonresident of the state. has threect sheet ast facts if you'll give me

second to read these three short sentences. the gun control act of 1968 requires federal firearms licensees to report multiple sales of handguns to the same purchaser. orber two, the sale disposition of two or more handguns must be reported if they occur at the same time or within five consecutive business days of each other. uses theone, atf recovered atarms one time as evidence of trafficking. it is illegal for a resident of illinois to bring a handgun that he bought in indiana -- host: go ahead. guest: that has been a talking point of many of the commentators looking at crime in chicago. we hear a lot about the flow of

guns from indiana into illinois. indiana has looser gun laws. case.t sure that is the there is nothing that significantly stands out to me when you compare indiana with illinois. you look at the data, it doesn't tell that story. crimety of chicago did a gun study, the gun trace report of 2017, they found twice as many guns recovered at crime scenes originated in illinois. the reason the second number is that high is because of geography. close. is not most of the guns involved in crime are coming from indiana. double the amount are coming from illinois. i am not sure we can attribute this to lose gun laws in especially when you

consider there is not an urban jurisdiction in indiana with a comparable gun violence problem. is a prettyiana small city, 76,000 people and 50 murders in a given year. that to smaller areas of the south and west sides of chicago, you can conjoin the 11th and 15th police districts in chicago, the murder rate is 40 points higher in that part of chicago than in gary. i don't think we can oversimplify this to that kind of problem. (202) 748-8000 is the number to call if you live in urban areas. hello. caller: the main point to make, and it doesn't get made enough, is this situation is analogous to the 1920's era prohibition. -- whetherks that

you want to call it economic or political -- there is a black market. there is a need to regulate your market. the only way to do that when you don't have law enforcement backing you up is to do it yourself. it happens in rural areas. common, ortle less it might same like it because it is more spread out, less dense, etc. etc.. the number one issue is controlled via substances act creates a black market and there is a need to regulate that market. if the police are not helping you because you are not in a legal market, you are going to do it yourself. no one says anything like that. in densel capone's urban areas running their market. host: does he make some kind of

point, mr. mangual? guest: certainly some of the violent crime we are seeing in chicago and other cities is driven by the drug trade, which is a violent business. in part because it is a black market. again, if you look at new york and l.a., the drug market is not unique to chicago. new york and l.a. are much denser urban areas.you don't see the same level of violence . one of the important things to keep in mind is that it is probably an overstatement to say that a majority, a significant majority, of the violence in chicago is driven by the drug trade. if you talk to some of the police on the ground, as i have, they will tell you a lot of the disputes are out of social media beefs and perceived slights, sexual jealousy -- two guys

arguing over a grow, that sort of thing. it is a culture of violence and not entirely driven by the drug trade. host: after a series of shootings in chicago, chicago's mayor went before cameras giving his perspective on the matter. he particularly directed his comments to those who live in those communities. >> there are too many guns on the street. too many people with criminal records on the street. valuess a shortage of about what is right and what is wrong. what is acceptable, what is condoned, and what is condemned. we as a city, in every corner, have an accountability and responsibility. if you know who did this, be a neighbor. speak up. neighbors come together.

the city will be with you, shoulder-to-shoulder. this is not about alone, how many police, where were they? the superintendent will take responsibility. it is not about summer jobs and investments. we will do that. we have more to do, much more to do. there's something more at stake. all of us know this is not chicago. host: what about his idea of the community's role in all this? guest: community definitely has to play a role. police this active center cocco will tell you -- police detectives in chicago will tell you it is near impossible to get cooperation when they are

investigating shootings and homicides. prevails, andng so does the culture of violence that has been percolating among these young kids who are just pulling triggers as if they were throwing a punch. that really does need to stop. the first two things that the mayor pointed out are the two most important things. and there are too many criminals with guns on the street, and there are too many people with criminal records on the street. that is where the city can do the most damage, so to speak, to the violence problem. by concentrating there. there was a case in chicago a month ago where a gentleman was walking down the street. police observed him, thought he armed. with a approached him a fight broke out and he eventually went for what turned out to be an illegally concealed pistol, and

was shot by police. that drove protests. the community can support legitimate police efforts to police criminals with guns on the streets. when they do do their job and lock these guys up, the city, the broader state justice system, needs to figure out how to better keep these guys incapacitated for longer times so they are not walking the streets, waiting to claim their next victim. host: hello. with the mayor of chicago 100%. the key is you refuse to deal with, just like the brother before, is we are talking about the drug trafficking. -- peopleealing with shoot with guns.

they are not enforcing themselves with baseball bats or no knives. but we refuse to deal with it is guns. that is what people are doing the violence with is guns. no one wants a deal with that because you want to talk about the national rifle association. they are shooting each other. the solution, you put them in atention any talk about them coming out. when you have them in their that is when you start the training. you don't just put them in there and put them back out, they start doing the same thing, but they are using guns. host: thanks, caller. certainly thee preferred method of violence for a lot of gangs on the south side of chicago. that has been the case for decades around the country. before 2010 the supreme court case of mcdonald versus chicago, handguns were

banned in the city. in the 1990's, the violent crime rates were even higher than now, if you can imagine. chicago is still below its peak. i don't think we can oversimplify this to one factor, economics.r all those things combined to play a role, but i think underestimate the value that proactive policing tactics combined with smart incarceration practices seems to do. host: give me a city that exemplifies that. guest: new york and los angeles are the best

when you talk about public offenses like fare jumpers,

people don't realize there is some overlap between minor criminals and serious criminals. not every fare jumper is a potential shooter, but a lot of potential shooters have a general disrespect for the law that's going to cost them to violate at lower levels as well. i've looked at arrest records of people arrested for murder in chicago, and you would be surprised at the spread, how petty some of the offenses can be. again, chicago is suffering from something, what was called the ferguson effect. discretionary street stopped by police were down significantly, something like 80% or it i don't think it is a coincidence that 2016 saw a spike in murders. we see that in baltimore as well. host: these are over claims of police brutality, mistreatment? guest: police around the country have reported, usa today did a

pretty good he somehow this was affecting baltimore a weeks ago. police around the country report they feel more intimidated, being less proactive because they don't want to end up on the front page of a newspaper. that can be a problem on a large scale. host: from portsmouth, virginia, warren. caller: good morning, everyone. before this conversation you had a report. i think you should read that toin, and ask your guest address what's not being done about those issues reported. as far as the cultural thing that's going on, yes, you have to understand, this problem we had today started decades ago. it started decades ago. we had, in the 1970's it was crack, in the 1980's, the

epidemic that lasted nearly two decades, the issue of teen pregnancy, and now you have a bunch of crack babies who grew up in this culture and don't know anything else. what exacerbates it, the lack of employment, constructive things for these people to do. so until we start addressing all those things correctly pointed out in this report that you read, we will have this cycle going. and the gun violence is just another thing in there. so we could do without guns, you know what i'm saying? not saying the violence level would change, but there would be less carnage without a gun added to that. guest: if you look at employment data, socioeconomic indicators, and crime, what you see is that there's really no relation between the two.

university of illinois did a study on unemployment in chicago, specifically among young black men. what they found, between 2014 and 2016, the rate of young black men either unemployed or not in school was reduced by 20%, but over that same period murders in the city spiked. time and time again when you look at data across the country, there really isn't much of a relationship between socioeconomic indicators and crime. host: new jersey. edward. good morning. caller: i think it is a culture of inequality, creating values. if you lock everyone up, these broken people are getting out of jail even more broken, and i people's last point, civic responsibility equals how much stake they have in the communities they live in, so if

we keep shutting the door in everyone's face, giving them those, they will act more violent, more deviant. host: what about that second part? somebody who gets incarcerated for longer periods of time, does that have a negative effect long-lasting as well? guest: incarceration is not a pleasant experience for anyone. it is not meant to be. there are certainly things we can probably due to improve outcomes for people who are incarcerated when they come out, but again, it is important to understand what the data say. the writer of a great book on incarceration, locked in, pointed out the reoffending rate is not as high as people might think, and people going back to prison is not driving the prison population. but irrespective of what the stats say on recidivism and the effect of incarceration on

someone locked up for a long period of time, the reality is that when inside, they are incapacitated, not able to commit these crimes, and the community feels a sense of relief from the extraction of those elements from the community. that is something we really need to give consideration to. someone behind bars can't hurt another person in the community from which they came. that is the bottom line for me. host: our conversation with rafael mangual of the manhattan institute, taking a look at the issue of gun violence, particularly in chicago. why did you get so drawn to what's happening in chicago? guest: in part because i lived e, chicago for a period of tim went to law school at depaul university, and my wife is originally from the west side of chicago. a tearful city, one that i think

-- beautiful city, one that i think has the potential to be one of the greatest in the world. you know, being originally from new york, i saw firsthand what these policing practices, incarceration practices, did to make city life livable here. i grew up in the 1990's in new york when the subway trains were all graffitied, people were getting robbed left and right, an insane amount of murders. all you saw on the news was random crying and destruction -- crime and destruction. that's not really the case anymore. the economic development people are hungry for came after that. that's something people need to consider. economic investment will follow improved cleaner and safer streets. host: in louisiana -- good morning. caller: good morning. i was calling about information. why don't they go after the senators, things like that? the people that we elect, to protect us, you know?

the one putting all those kids in the streets, promoting it, giving them money. they should -- host: let's go to brad, in international falls, minnesota. caller: good to hear from you again. i enjoy this conversation. but you know, the irony of all this, now we have a group, basically the democrats, that one these -- want these same people behind bars voting. it just shakes my inner body, to think that, what is the democratic party going to do? they will be in the same place they are after november, still in the minority, still going to be talking as foolish, and there's going to be no change, so good luck. host: is there something there,

if someone who served in prison for a long time gets out, stays ivatingtrouble, react voting rights or some thing is to help them as they get back into society? guest: there is an interesting, much-needed debate to have about whether and to what extent we restore voting rights to convicted felons after they have been released and paid their debt to society, but that is a totally separate conversation from this one. not sure there's going to be any relationship between ex-cons voting and the crime problem in places like chicago and baltimore and st. louis. there's definitely an important conversation to have. i know in new york, andrew cuomo has undertaken an initiative to help restore voting rights for convicted felons, but again, i am not really sure what role that will play in helping crime in the city's. guest: host: you probably heard about the comparisons between gun violence in our country,

what happens in other countries, europe and australia where they have stricter laws, lower levels of crimes. what do you think about those comparisons? guest: i think it reflects a problem of thinking about crime on a national scale. when we aggregate crime, we ignore the fact that crime is not experienced in the aggregate. most of the crime in the united states, especially gun crime, is very concentrated in select parts of the few cities around the country. and that is driving the rational - national rate that ends up so much higher. most of the united states is relatively safe. if you are randomly dropped in chances of the country, are you would land in part of the country with no gun violence. in 2016, chicago's homicide rate was 27 per 100,000. what does that tell you about where you are in chicago at a

given time? almost nothing. what the citywide rate does is overstate the violence problem in the safe parts of the city, and drastically understate the violent problem in the most dangerous parts of the city. there are no parts of chicago with that murder rate. that rate was driven by the really bad problem areas in the south and west side, with vertebrates well above 70, 100 -- murder rates well above 70, 100 in some cases. for the north side, about 1.7 million people living there, the murder rate's closer to one. host: from south dakota, joe is next. caller: good morning. i'm really tired of the terminology of "gun violence." the gun is not violent. it's the person in front of the

gun. do you believe that it's zero guns were in society, we would have a zero murder rate? guest: probably not. also, that hypothetical would never happen. guns have proliferated beyond the point of no return. in the u.s., something like 350 million guns in private circulation, so not sure we will ever get there, even if we tried. host: washington, d.c., chris is next. caller: i have been listening. liketle of it sounds gentrification talk. talking about how stop and frisk decreased the crime rate of new york city. if i'm correct, there was a movement to reduce stop and frisk. that has stopped, and at the

same time, they found stop and frisk was targeting mostly black men, who had less arrests. they were finding more white people committing crimes under stop and frisk than black people, and when they stopped, crime rates still dropped. host: we will let our guest respond. york city's new stop and frisk practices have not come to a complete halt. they're doing over 10,000 a year. the thing to keep in mind, while crime has not gone up, a re duction in stops, that doesn't necessarily mean it is a binary thing. other thingse are

contributed to the crime drop from what the city experienced in the 1990's, 2000's, for example incarceration. there are lacking benefits are having people extracted from their communities and put into incarceration after committing a crime. so someone who was given 10 years for a shooting five years ago is still locked up, so those benefits compound. when you make a shift in policing practices, you are not always going to see an immediate feedback in the crime rate, especially in a place like new york city where the practices of broken windows policing were so itective, done for so long, will take some time for that to unravel. it was inmanguel, july that attorney general jeff sessions in a speech to law enforcement gave support to stop and frisk. more police

organizations across the u.s. employing these methods if they see they will give cover from the attorney general, the justice department? guest: no. cover am not sure what the attorney general, justice department could ever provide a police department that is sued t he way new york city's was. but what we see, unfortunately clearly, police are being less proactive, not more proactive, despite comments from attorney general sessions. police report they are being more timid, less likely to get out of their cars, interact with people on the street unless they are responding to a call. that is a problem to reading to the violence we're seeing in some cities, including six chicago -- in chicago, st. louis, baltimore. host: this is richard in alabama. caller: i would like to know, what is the mental state, what

are they doing about the mental problems people are having? depression, other things that are going on in chicago. do they give out any money to help them, instead of sending them to jail? do don't they, you know, something to help them mentally? guest: mental health policy certainly isn't my specialty. i would not claim to be an expert in that. but again, i am not aware of any significant connection between mental health policy and the violence places like chicago are experiencing now. certainly an important topic. host: walter in indiana, from father. caller: thanks for taking my call. i am an old new york city boy, 21st street, sherman avenue. a beautiful neighborhood. italian, irish, german. no crime. you should sit out on the stoop and play stickball.

affordablelow income projects, the blacks moved in, and it turned into a to militarize zone. when you look at a bad affordable neighborhood, they are minorities. not a racial thing to say, just a fraction -- factual thing. you never see the amish people going on slaughtering sprees. whenmit to you, one idea, i was in catholic school, my sister carmela smacked me on the face. my mother smacked the other side, knock it off, stand up straight and be a man. she taught me from an early age. families, 70% of them don't have a father in the home. 60% out of wedlock. host: got your point. fatherlessness is certainly an issue, in the black

community in particular. it is a case that there's a disproportionate amount of violent crime committed by young black men. i'm not sure there's any racial connection we can draw there. but again, that is something we need to keep in mind, when they consider the disparate outcomes we see in law enforcement. a flood of times people who point to arrest rates, use of force rates, seeing racial disparities there, come to the conclusion that affects bias on the part of the criminal justice system. that is an oversimplification. when people really consider the data, it becomes clear why so many law-enforcement resources are being concentrated in these communities. the most important thing to point out, the people benefiting from law enforcement focus are the people who live in these minority communities. new york city saved countless

black lives over the 1990's and 2000's, doing the right things when it came to policing communities, holding criminals accountable. that is something every community deserves. host: our guest, deputy legal director for policy at the manhattan institute. thank you for your time this morning. caller: >> c-span's "washington journal," live every day with news and policy issues that impact you. coming up friday morning we will look at political news of the day with washington times online opinion editor. professor on law the lawsuit he joined to challenge the electoral college system. journal," live beginning at 7:00 a.m., join the discussion. >>