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tv   Washington Journal Steven Shepard  CSPAN  September 11, 2018 2:20pm-3:03pm EDT

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that is acceptable fidelity and very low cost. two very different phenomena. self-interest on the part of dod to move the ship of state over to low-cost. defineknow that when you something new, bureaucratic, you tend to want to do it with your credit resources. how do you see this trend where the private sector is moving into space very dynamically, but in an entirely different cost environment compared to the government sector? it is it possible to reconcile this? or are we just going to go like this? >> you can watch the rest of this online at c-span.org and we will have live coverage later
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today on c-span starting at 3 p.m. eastern with the conversation about the russian president, vladimir putin, and his control over russian media live from the atlantic council, starting at 3:00. and the last primary days of the cycle. joining us to talk about it is steven shepard, the campaign editor for politico. before we get to the house and senate landscape ahead of the election, i want to talk about the news yesterday of ron for governor in florida, resigning his seat in the house to concentrate on running. how unique is that for the congressman to leave early go -- early? guest: we usually see it for those congressmen who have longer travel to get from washington to their home states.
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ron desantis lives in north sort -- florida, and it is not want -- that long of a flight -- flight. we are in september and congress will be in session for another seven to 10 days between the midterm elections, at least in the house. we are not talking about a huge commitment but i think this speaks more to the politics. a nominee for this in large part because of his job as a congressman. he got a key endorsement from president trump against adam putnam because he was able to get on fox. congress is really unpopular even though the house has been controlled by republicans in 2010 and the senate has been controlled by republicans and 2014 14, but republicans do not like congress to write the fact they've had control for dr. years.- four you don't want to be involved in washington to the -- and the
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swamp, even though republicans have been in control. host: are using democrats already going after him for this? guest: summer pointing out that he already missed 54% of his votes since july on the house pointing out are that the artemis 54% of his vote since july and the house floor. house -- as the already missed 54% of his votes since july and house floor. even in a lame-duck period, when he could come back to congress whether he wins or loses, the people of that district will not have any representation, which is another side of this. it's a political ploy, let's call it what it is. stephen shepard will be
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with us until the top of the hour, talking about election 2018, all of the house, senate, races.ernatorial a great time for you to call in with the races you are interested in. for democrats (202) 748-8000, for republicans (202) 748-8001, and for independents (202) 748-8002. there are primaries today in new hampshire and in rhode island's, what are you watching? democrats are picking a replacement for the new hampshire congresswoman, there are 11 candidates in the democratic primary, it's a solid democratic see, we will reevaluated after tonight's primary. there's also a race for governor , where the first-term governor, a republican is seeking reelection and democrats have two candidates.
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in rhode island we are only watching the race for governor, gina remind of, the first time sent democratic senator is not terribly possible -- popular, she won without the support of ae progressive base in fractious race. her numbers in a general election don't look great and man who isbeat the likely to become the republican nominee. and to round up primary season in new york, we have the democratic primary for governor between andrew cuomo and cynthia nixon. cuomo has a 41 point lead and we are not expecting that to be competitive. and the state primary for attorney general features a number -- a member of congress who is running there. if he wins that he will withdraw from his congressional seat,
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democrats would have defined a new nominee in a hurry and they would be on defense in a year were they need 23 seats to pick up the house of representatives and if you lose one seat you need 24 seats. that plays into that. host: as we come to the end of primary season, can we say what the lessons were? , first i think the two parties are operating on different planets. on the democratic side, it's interesting the kind of candidates they have been nominating. we've seen more progressive candidates doing well in a number of races, but not universally. there have been a lot of liberal candidates who have fallen short in some of these races, but one of the broader lessons for me and we have the story unpolitical.com buy our house reporter, democrats have nominated far more women for congressional races than we have ever seen before. roughly 180 nominees so far are seats, thate 435
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shatters previous records. we will see in new hampshire's first district, one of the woman, one is a man. seeill be fascinating to that play out. regardless of that outcome it has been good for democratic women this cycle. on the republican side, we started talking about ron desantis. like a lot of things i'm sure on your show and here in washington, a lot of it's about president trump. having his support in some of these primaries has been so critical for some many of these candidates he is essentially undefeated. he endorsed foster freeze in the wyoming gubernatorial, too late to move the needle. but he was able to elevate ron desantis who is getting clobbered in the polls by adam putnam and elevate him to a commanding position.
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not gottene has involved, the candidates are talking about him on the trail, in their advertising. the arizona senate primary, all they wanted to talk about was president trump. and even though the president did not endorse one candidate over the others, he was a key issue in the republican primary. those of the two track lessons we have. the problem for republicans is yoking themselves to a president ,ho is at a 41% approval rating may be generously. it might be a great strategy when he has 90% approval among republicans but i'd not sure it's a great strategy this fall. host: the names that have popped up this primary season, has this been a cat -- a bad season for incumbents? it roughly hits the average, the difference would last cycle we saw incumbents who
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lost were people like corinne brown, they had scandals and indictments leaning over them. this year we did not see that, mark sanford had his scandal when he was the governor of some carolina, there was ethics issues in north carolina but that's a past him. there were no hint of scandal and they were clearly felled in their primaries. i think there are lessons to draw but we are also talking members.r out of 435 a few dozen decided not to seek reelection, you're talking four out of 400 incumbents who sought to run for another term and were denied in their primaries. that's not a large number. i think there are lessons to draw, but i also would caution against over reading. host: steve shepard is the campaign editor at politico.
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the race ratings pages came out last week, currently predicting the house leaning in favor of democrats and the senate likely to go to republicans. if you have particular races you want to talk about in the house or senate, now it be a good time to call in, the phone lines are split as usual. we will get to your calls, michelle is in atlanta, georgia, a democrat. good morning. , i am happy morning ,hat we have a black woman stacey abrams, who is running for governor here in georgia. stacey abrams is going to clobber that white nationalists brian camped --kempt. you talk about his -- youth -- you talk about president trump's 30% base, but african-americans have been turning out in record-breaking numbers.
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we are going to show you in november, we are running against the grand wizards of the clan --klan, and i'm so glad when we defeat him. host: we got your point. let's talk about the georgia governors race. guest: it's one of the starkest ,ontrasts on the midterm map stacey abrams, a former state house minority leader running against the secretary of state brian camped --kemp. he talked about what primary candidates -- primary races are about and he talked about the issues that president trump talks about and being a big supporter for him in georgia. theot endorsed by trump final make of the campaign and surged over casey cable in that primary. this is going to be a fascinating race to watch, stacey abrams has focused her
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candidate -- her candidacy about -- a campaign about turning out people to vote, so many people are african-american and live in the rural areas. it will be interesting to see i think pays off, and that racial issues are going to be front and center in that campaign for better or worse. host: politico is currently ranking the governor's race in georgia as one of the seven gubernatorial tossup races. is waiting in virginia, on the republican line. caller: i agree, republicans tend to hold our own. i live in virginia, and the gravy train, we don't want the gravy train interrupted. we need a reliable republican that will fall in line and keep
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this going for us. -- mostly around me as a security state, and the national security apparatus. is goingnow what trump to do, but we want things to be status quo and i apologize for not talking about race. you want to talk about some of the issues that he is bringing up and what republicans are trying to appeal to? genia is fascinating, we have three tossup house races, the second is -- virginia is fascinating we have three tossup house races. we actually have barbara comstock in the 10th district as leaning democratic. this is in the fairfax county , it in northern virginia has most of loudoun county all the way out towards winchester.
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this is a district that has been held by republicans for decades, a longtime incumbent retired in 2014. barbara comstock managed to win reelection in 2016 by six points even though hillary clinton carried the district by 10 over donald trump. this is a lot of well-educated white republicans who do not like president trump. when you look at the polling, it looks like they are poised to whatarbara comstock, but does not help them is their senate nominee at the top of the ticket is corey stewart, the caller said he did not want to talk about race but corey stewart has ties to the white nationalists group and has made a number of controversial comments in his past. it looks like that race against tim kaine is going to be a blowout. that could cost republicans in these down ballot house races. host: could you define wave election? this ine argue about
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the newsroom and we argue about it all the time. a lot of people look at the wave in terms of relative position. democrats after the 2008 election had does co-waves in a row in 06 and 08 where they built his huge house majority and it was washed away when republicans one 63 seats in 2010 -- won 63 seats in 2010. and the republican majority of 2010 was resizable but not as big as it was after 2014. it was the net change, the delta between 2008 in 2010 that marked the wave and this year, if democrats are able to net 30 seats, even though they would be a narrow majority, i think those people would regard that as a way because of the stark change between this congress and the new congress that will be meeting on january 3. need 23mocrats only
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seats to take the house and 60 seats are in danger, define that? asst: we have that defined leaning towards democrats in our tossup range, or just leaning republican. seats that may be opportunities for democrats to pick up. of the 65 seat described, 60 are currently held by republicans. battle for the house, we will talk about the senate at some point, the battle for the house is being fought on republican turf in district. we started this cycle talking about built-in advantage for republicans that has slowly whittled away for 18 months and one of those is the way the districts are drawn, some of that is intentional in terms of that isdering, some of population patterns. there are urban districts where democrats win 95% of the vote. those same districts don't exist on the republican side, republican voters are distributed in a way that makes
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it easier at the house level. but some of those advantages , we are even away seeing in districts that have voted republican a long time that democrats have real opportunities to make gains. host: sharon is in california, an independent. good morning. caller: good morning, i'm calling from california, i'm a former democrat. partylove the democratic and i associate is an independent now. i will be voting for devin nunes in my area of california. i'm hoping to see republicans , ie more seats in california think for people who look around and to live here we know that the liberal policies are not working for this state. i think we're seeing high rates ancrime, homelessness,
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increase in gang violence and i don't think that has been waters, ory maxine by other democrats that have been in control of the state for a long time. i also found it interesting when obama came to california that rather than choosing to go to or of the sanctuary cities look at a homeless camp, or go to maxine waters cost district -- maxine waters district, he chose to have invited attendees in orange county, one of the most conservative and wealthiest areas in california. host: you bring up a couple topics. orangelet's talk about county. sharon makes a great point, orange county is traditionally one of the most conservative parts of california which is
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what makes it the electoral battleground this year. hillary clinton one orange county, the first him a win their in decades. in decades. we talked about voters who moved from over -- for obama to trump in 2016 there was a countercurrent of the voters who went from voters who moved from mitt romney to hillary clinton because they were repelled by president trump. a lot of those voters are in orange county and democrats have a lot of opportunity to gain house seat. the seats of ed royce or darrell issa, and people like steve knight are very much in danger. held thatsident obama event which supported a number of these challengers. opportunitiesbest among democrats and they are a republican beachhead for the
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2018 midterm elections. late atprobably be up night unless it is a huge democratic way of, trying to see what happens in the southern california seats and whether democrats can make up the 23 seats they need. their strategy hinges on winning between three and six in california this cycle. and if they can, i think they will take back the house. and if republicans can hold them they have a good shot at staying in the majority. host: another key status the rogers, inate, pennsylvania, and independent. go ahead. caller: i think it's important that we place this particular election in the context of 9/11. unfortunately, a lot of people don't have the pieces of the puzzle to put that together to know what actually happened. going to give some information that's very important. -tech, a software
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company and the other is p-nac, -- host: could you bring us to campaign 2018? --ler: host: one more time on campaign 2018. caller: america, you have been hijacked and deceived and lied to. jordan, inll go to durham, north carolina. go ahead. about why comment is are democrats struggling to win midterm elections. that is my comment and questions? host: are they? guest: they certainly have in
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the last two midterm elections in the simple explanation is that it's a lot easier to motivate voters when their party is not in the white house. the coalition that former president obama brought out for him in 2008 and 2012 did not show up in large part in these midterm elections. but the one thing that 2018 is not lacking for, and we are seeing this in primary after primary and special election after special election is democratic enthusiasm. republicans are also jazzed, more than you would see than those obama midterms for democrats. ,'m interested to see how these the unstoppable force and immovable object collide. host: take us to senate rankings, the senate is likely to go towards republicans, not even in the leeds category. guest: even though the senate majority for republicans is a lot mourn arrow, 51 to 49 with
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jon kyl joining the full last the from arizona, here's reality. of the seats up for election this year, 10 are currently held by democrats in states that donald trump carried in the presidential election. but republican seats, only one in a stateght -- is that is hillary clinton kerry. carried. you had people like heidi heitkamp in north dakota, joe manchin in west virginia, claire mccaskill in missouri, joe donnelly in indiana. these are democratic senators reelection in seats that were carried by donald trump in double digits. ,ome are holding up pretty well heidi heitkamp is not holding up as well, claire mccaskill is essentially tied with her democratic opponent, joe donnelly might have a slight lead over his republican opponent.
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these are places where democrats are on defense and the idea of trying to win the majority while defending those seats without as many offense of opportunities is going to be hard. holdingse joe manchin his own in a conservative state that donald trump one in 2016 -- why is joe manchin holding his own in a conservative state that donald trump one and heidi heitkamp can't? guest: she has favorable numbers, but she was a candidate , thatfice as a senator has really been rolling opportunity to build your profile. joe manchin has been building independent maverick democratic streak going back to his time as governor and into the senate in 2010 after the death of robert burr, the longtime senator from west virginia. he's taken on his own party in a more public way and heidi heitkamp has. yesterday he released a new television ad, which called to voters attention in the 2010
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special general election. he shot a bullet through the trade bill that passed the house in 2009 that was never taken up by the senate and never went anywhere. protecthat i'm going to west virginia's energy industry against the regulation and action coming from a democratic-controlled congress and democratic president. using a firearm, which also speaks of the gun culture there. it was a novel idea. this time he is doing it to attack his opponent, patrick morrissey, who is suing to have the remaining provisions of obamacare stripped away. gun: you mentioned the culture, the nra hitting joe manchin for his support or lack thereof the second amendment, here is what they had to say. >> he wants to oppose your gun -- the world wants to oppose your gun rights. >> i don't think you want your second amendment taken.
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>> joe manchin is part of the problem. >> joe manchin always voted for obama, i like joe, but he does not vote forth. >> the national rifle association gives him a grade of d. >> we must elect patrick morrissey. we need him. it's always fun to see the -- host: it's always fun to see the call and response. so joe manchin put out his own and. >> i was born and raised in west virginia. this is what i'm fighting for. a strong military, securing our borders, and keeping our promises to our veterans and miners. technical training for good paying jobs, decent and affordable health care, and the second amendment always. i approve this message because i will work with both parties and any president who wants to get things done for the people of west virginia. host: your thoughts on those
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ads? guest: it's a lot of what we see from joe manchin and his political career as governor and senator, he's walking the fine mind running for reelection in a state that donald trump carried by 36 points on election day. that's hard. politician,skilled that thou he's gotten elected summary times and he is currently leading. one thing that interesting about the nra ad is that it features scenes from a trump rally in west virginia, and this is where you will see the president on the trail this fall, he will go to the states. particularly the five senate states i mentioned with democratic senator seeking reelection that the president carried by double digits, he will carry the clips from those rallies and he will motivate the base because they will pay attention to the rallies, they will be motivated to vote and
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they will take clips from those rallies entering them into television ads. that is the game plan for republicans to keep the senate, and perhaps even expand the narrow majority. that may not work in some of these house districts because these are places where the president struggled. gym, a republican in washington is next. i don't think we really have a choice to vote republican , you have to or the democrats are talking impeachment. if that's what they're running on his impeachment, that would turn the country inside out. it would lead to civil war from the inside out, that's my belief and i don't think you have a choice. host: on the idea of running on impeachment. guest: it's true that some democrats are talking about that, but by and large most candidates are not.
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it will be interesting to see if democrats to take control of the house it only takes a simple majority to pass articles of impeachment and send them to the senate. it will be interesting to see if, depending on the conclusions of the special counsel and democrats win cap -- win back the house, if the majority will come to see some of the things alleged in there. they will want to send that to the senate where it requires two thirds of the senate to remove a president or anyone else from office under an impeachment trial. the senate is likely going republican, even if senate -- democrats are one -- win back the senate it will be by the narrowest majority. the most extreme of potential crimes could be alleged there and it would be difficult to imagine, and maybe even democrats who do think in the house the president should be impeached depending upon is conclusions might see it as not
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resulting in his removal anyway. host: sean, in maryland. an independent. good morning. caller: i disagree with you when you say the republicans will likely take the senate. if you look at nevada, dean is arizona,is is up in joe manchin is up in west virginia, the tennessee race is pretty much tied. with thes tied governor down there. i think the democrats could possibly pull it off, and i think a lot of people are sleeping on the democrats when it comes to the senate. i think the senate will go democrat and also people like joe manchin are playing it smart. they don't want obama coming to the state which is a good move, and on top of that, with the
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kavanaugh vote about to come up. they might vote for him and that could play well in their states. i think when you look at people like them, billy democrat i see really moving is heidi heitkamp -- the only democrat i see luke -- losing is heidi heitkamp. i think democrats have a good chance of winning. host: sean has a good handle on the landscape. guest: that was my view. let's talk about the democratic path to control, we talked about the races they are on defense let's talk about offense. nevada, polls show that he's roughly tied in hanging in there but short of 50%. jacky rosen is the democratic nominee was in tossup right now. she might be in a slight favorite to knockoff dean heller but it's close. , a recently minted
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democratic nominee is running against martha mccallie. that's a tossup. there's a reliable -- there is not a reliable pullout of that district yet. it's definitely a good opportunity for democrats, there is also a seat held by jeff flake who is retiring, as well as bob corker. phil radisson is performing well and he might have a slight lead over marsha blackburn. to become more republican overtime and we have that leaning republican but acknowledging that radisson is holding his own and if he is still there among from now or early to mid october we may have to move that to a tossup. host: what's the secret recipe sayrace ratings when you toss up orleans this orleans that. and how does falling -- polling factor into it? guest: it helps but we also have people reporting live, and we
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monitor the resources that are being deployed, we're not just counting on what they tell us that we watch how they act. see where the parties are investing in where they are not, y think they may be in such deep trouble it's not worth investing, and they are not spending time and resources. we have the following, -- polling, we put this together solid, likely,of leaning, and tossup races in the middle on both sides. it's a conventional way and we are trying to provide more insight for our readers, and contacts about where the races stand. therefore hundred 35 elections for congress this cycle, 36 senate elections, 36 governors elections, that's a lot for people to process and this is an important context as people look
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into the races and how control might shift and know what to look for. we will be watching these 500 contests, trying to figure out what it all means. ratings andose interesting charts are available at political.com. steve shepard is the campaign editor there. our next caller is in atlanta, georgia. a democrat. caller: good morning. the state of georgia, i'm 64 years old and a senior. in the state of georgia, you cannot compare it to any other state. each person running for office needs to know what their constituents need, you cannot compare it to nevada, california , we have our congress and our senate and our governor. they should know our needs because our needs might be
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totally different from the rest of the country. we have a lot of rural areas, hospitals have closed, we have no doctors in these areas we don't have grocery stores, the income is at $7.25 an hour. we need to work on the constituents in georgia. looking out for your people and making sure they have what they need in the state of georgia regardless of if you're a democrat or republican. the state of georgia needs to know and we need to know that our representatives represent our needs. host: we have your point. guest: in georgia we started talking at the governor's race, there are a couple of interesting house races as well. you may remember a year ago we talked a lot about the special election in georgia sixth , tom price had resigned to become health and human services secretary he did not last long in that job. karen handel, the republican
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very narrowly won an expensive special election and she faces a different opponent, lucy mcbeth, that's a fascinating race. and a race we did not see coming district, robring woodall, republican nominee who is really easily won reelection is now in a district where internal polling shows a close race. these will be something to watch. a stacey abrams can perform well at the top of the ticket and perform welles not under republicans these are places where democrats have opportunities to get out the house state. the bluegrass state, gary is in kentucky, a republican, go ahead. caller: i would like to address the statement that many democrats are running on impeachment, trump, kavanaugh, etc.. but that is all we see out of them every day.
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that, because on it sure looks like that's all they are running on. it's interesting. if you watch a lot of cable news , or follow what the news is out of washington every day, it is a lot about trump, the investigation, the supreme court nominee last week, but if you actually watch democratic advertising the number thing at -- they want to talk about -- the number one thing they want to talk about his health care. they are competing in a lot of republican territory where the president is more popular than nationally. but it's interesting to see, not only are they talking about health care but they are talking about obamacare in a way that you cannot have imagined is unpopular this was a to six years ago. times about the
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word pre-existing conditions. and the efforts to repeal obama care or have it struck down in talk about inthey west virginia. the frame they are using is that they will take away coverage from you if you have a pre-existing condition. that's the number one message of the democrats. and when they go on television, or what they are asked about in the hallways of congress, but when they are spending money on the air to talk about issues, that's what they are putting their resources behind and what they think is their best argument and if you told me this eight years ago, the people like joe manchin a conservative state like west virginia were going to be running on this argument of pre-existing conditions and defending obamacare i would have been surprised. also wanted to talk about the sixth condition -- district of kentucky. guest: amy mcgrath has run an
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impressive race against andy barr. the race has changed over the last couple of weeks. there is a cheap republican super pac that had a poll in june that showed andy barr, in a district that went for president , lena towardsints amy mcgrath. -- lean towards amy mcgrath. they released a new poll last week showing her down by four points. host: let's shows viewers what kentucky voters are seeing. liberals want to raise our taxes, pass a government takeover of health care, and open america's borders to illegal immigration. -- how is she different than the democratic party? >> i don't know she's different
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than the democratic party nationals. >> higher taxes, bigger government, opel borders. you mentioned amy mcgrath's response to those ads, here is one of the ads she has put up since the first ad started playing in her district. someday i will tell my children about flying combat missions, about working at the pentagon. i will also tell them about this time, where attack ads tried to make me someone i am not. andy barr things i'm too far left because i want every family to have health care and i want safety checks to help prevent school shootings. i'm amy mcgrath and i approve this method -- this message because defending the country is about protecting those we love. host: stephen shepard? guest: it appears it works, andy
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barr is ever so slightly in the lead in their internal polling and that's a big shift from where the race to an earlier in the summer which is why we had the race leaning democratic at one point. this is going to be an interesting election to watch. one of the other reasons i will be watching it is because polls close early in the night at 6:00 eastern. we will get an early towel on the national environmentt --tell on the national environment at it is otherwise republican leaning condition -- district in kentucky. host: to missouri, steve is an independent. caller: as a true independent christian, iive can't vote for any republicans. there are only a couple of things i agree with them. willhe problem is that i vote democrat because democracy is at stake with this election,
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but they will lose us on the next election because obama took us out of left field and bernie sanders will take us out of the ballpark. it's getting to where we need an ,ndependent party so badly nobody is honest or working for us. it's all how much money they can get, and the universal health care is a big factor. i'm for that. all we need are the urgent care places in a main town in hospital. we are already set up for that. host: who could lead an independent party? buter: i have no idea, someone coming out of the blue, you would have to be a billionaire to start a party so we need a billionaire that loves we will set up a person is a christian that stands on his word and won't back down. host: we have your point.

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