c-span is brought to you by your cable or satellite provider. more debates is eating. facing the public and james o'donnell for new york's 18th congressional district. live coverage of that 6:00 p.m. eastern on c-span appeared then dave it trone are vying for maryland's sixth u.s. house seat. that is live at 7:00. democrats defeat a brits and republican -- independent ted metz. -- watch tonight. next, live on washington journal, your calls and comments. the university for the professor michael mcdonald on the trends in early voting to what it means for the midterm elections. the arms control association on the trump administration's

threat to terminate a cold war nuclear arms agreement with russia a preview of the racist watch battle for the control of congress, could political how senator -- joint is. washington journal is next. october 23 2018. a3-hour "washington journal" ahead. we discuss early voting in 2018 and the battleground house races with two weeks to go. we talk about president trump's new promise to terminate a decades-old arms agreement with russia. we begin discussing the caravan foronduran migrants bound the u.s. border. president trump threatened to shut off foreign aid to countries for failing to stop the caravan and called it a national emergency for the u.s.

we are asking whether you agree with the president. if you do, give us a call at 202-748-8000. if you don't, 202-748-8001 is the number for you. you can catch up with us on social media. facebook.com/ c-span. now.an start calling in migrants had north, trump steps up threats. the reporter joins us on the phone now. talk about the latest on the caravan to head north. is it still growing? guest: yes and yes. the caravan shows no sign of stopping or slowing down. it is not moving very quickly. these are a few hundred people

and it is a very slow process. they are in the very southern state in mexico, which means they are still 1000 miles from the nearest point of entry along the u.s. border. some folks are thinking they will go to further parts and they might be 2000 miles away from their final destination. they are growing and despite the -- from president trump, no signs of slowing down. host: any estimate on when they would reach the united states and where? guest: the timing is starting to look like it is going to be very close to election day because with so many people, it will take that long to get through the country. as it happened with previous caravans as they move through mexico, the expectation is a lot of them will fall off the group. some for -- apply for a silo

months ago and they will stay there -- asylum months ago and they will stay there. it's not sure how many will stay. the fewer, the quicker they can move. we will know exactly when they get here and what their final destination is. host: what about the makeup of those in the caravan? the president tweeting criminals and unknown middle easterners are mixed in. guest: the president and his administration has provided no evidence of people of middle eastern dissent being in the group. no clear real indication as to why that should be a warning sign in and of itself. we don't know and our reporters on the ground -- other reporters in the group -- all of them have said they have not seen anybody of middle eastern dissent in this caravan. it started in honduras, so the

majority of these people are from honduras. as the caravan has moved on, they have had more people from guatemala and el salvador and nicaragua joining as well. as far as we can tell, those are the only folks a part of this as far as previous caravans. we have seen no indication the president's tweet was accurate and so far this morning, no tweets from him. storyalong with your today, a story in recent days you wrote about the president threatening to shut down the u.s. border. can he do that and how would he do that? guest: that is one of the many -- he has lo9bbed as many threats -- lobbed as many threads as he can. he threatened to withhold aid we send to help these countries improve their economic and social situation so people don't

leave. he has threatened quite a few things and one of them was sending the military to the u.s. border to seal the border. the answer to the first question is simply, yes, he can seal the borders if he wants to. he could literally close the ports of entry, they close the gates. they could say, we are not processing anybody today. the economic cost of that would be massive and the cultural impact would be massive and it would not just hurt mexico, it would hurt the united states because of all the commerce that traverses that border every single day. he could do it if he wanted to. aren't there restrictions on the u.s. military patrolling the u.s. border? guest: that was the next part, whether he can send the military is another question.

as we have seen, a president can mobilizey routinely the national guard when needed. they respond to national disasters and several national guard deployments have been sent to the southwest border over previous decades by multiple presidents, including president obama and several others before him for different reasons. right now, there is an active national guard mobilization along the southwest border --ponding to a previous time earlier this year when the president declared a state of emergency at the border. calling in the active duty is where things get more complicated. act -- aan 19th-century law that restricts the military from engaging in domestic law enforcement activities. there have been a few cases where either congress have

expressly allowed or presidents have used the military within the united states. for example, there is a current law that allows for some military to be used to combat drug trafficking and in the 90's, that was used routinely where we would send marines into south texas and along the border. obviously, this would not be a drug situation because we are talking about a caravan of people. the president and this administration -- they are willing to test the boundaries of what they are able to do. that option remains on the table. eyes -- a lott of of folks wondering if they will resort to that as this caravan gets closer and closer to the border. gomez, immigration reporter for usa today. thank you so much this morning.

guest: thank you. host: we are taking your calls. president trump colling that migrant caravan a national emergency. it do you agree with that? 202-748-8000 is the number if you do. if you disagree, 202-748-8001. dennis in oklahoma. caller: good morning. i agree with president trump. he needs to shut down that border and this is not only about the immigrants, this is also about national security and our monetary system and everything else. who is going to take care of these people when they come across that border? this country right now is having enough trouble with immigration as far as them not being able to take care of themselves or having finances or anything.

to thent to come in night -- to the united states and have three anything. the united states cannot afford this. host: the president yesterday threatened to withhold aid from central american countries for failing to stop this caravan. do you agree with that by the president? caller: yes, i do. it will take whatever necessary to make these countries police their own people and do something about their own .conomies down there right now, we don't need the drug problems and by letting these immigrants or i call them aliens, intoe -- this country, what they are doing is opening up more supply lines for drugs to come in from

the cartels and we definitely to stop that. we hear all the time people talking about to stop that. the opioid crisis. it is not only the opioids, it is the drugs coming across our borders from mexico and honduras and el salvador and south america, wherever they can get them in. it's all about the money. host: that is dennis in oklahoma. on the issue of cutting off aid to central american countries, the editorial board disagreeing -- of the washington post disagreeing but -- and saying by cutting off aid to central america, they deepened the insecurity and misery. those are the factors that have driven a recent spike in immigration. a more rational policy would be to double down on policies with -- that could avoid

the spectacle of a northbound caravan such as the one making its way through mexico right now and a president for whom the misery of migrants is a convenient wedge issue. ralph, what do you think here in washington, d.c.? caller: i think they should let them in and this will be the 50,000 and then we probably have another wave of 5 million and then we could have a wave from india of 60 to 100 million and a wave from china and southeast asia and pretty soon, we will have one billion illegals here and we will teach the american worker how to work harder. we can drive down wages to five dollars a day and tax everybody to death and have these people on the streets and at that

point, i will have purged my weight guilt and have -- white guilt and been a social justice warrior and charge the ramparts of people who disagree with me. if you disagree with me, you are racist and sexist and some type of -ist. no control of our borders. if you don't think it's a problem, we've already got 30 million mexicans in this country, first and second generation. 300 million is not enough because we need even more. we need to turn this whole country into one big ghetto before social justice warrior's and the next democrat that says that, i will never vote for him post,and the washington their ideas, that is why i canceled my subscription. ralph int is washington, d.c. steve on the line for those who disagree with the president in new york.

caller: good morning. good morning. no, i don't think starting and -- starving and people seeking refuge from gang and political violence are dangerous. i am an african american and i have a message for african-american trump supporters. these people are not coming here take your job. african-americans who have been here for decades don't want to do that work, that is nonsense. thank you and have a wonderful day. host: steve in new jersey for those on the line who agree with the president. you have to turn down your tv and talk through the phone. caller: i hit it by mistake. i agree with president trump feelse as a citizen, i insulted that these people are going to bum rush the united states. one thing i want to talk about

is many democrats and liberals thisogressives succumb to disease called the great white liberal hero disease and they want to solve all the world's problems and no problems where they live. i am from new jersey and democrats in trenton, including the new governor, governor murphy -- they are allowing illegal him -- aliens in new jersey to attend colleges and universities and pay only in .tate tuition until recently, they had to pay the out-of-state tuition. also, they want to give students -- illegal alien students student loans and grants from the states. --s about time someone just the taxes in new jersey are

getting crazy and giving away free goods to foreigners, illegal aliens don't help me. another thing i would like to say is canada -- there are embassies from canada in mexico and other countries in central america. maybe they can apply for asylum there. canada is a nice place. host: that is steve in new jersey. , some 3000 ofbook you have already voted in that and a few more saying they disagree with the president calling that caravan a "national emergency" then those that agree with the president. he was at a rally for ted cruz and talked about this migrant caravan. [video clip] >> what is happening right now as a large group of people, they call it at caravan.

[booing] >> do you know how the caravan started? does everybody know what this means? i think the democrats had something to do with it and now they are saying i think we made a big mistake because people are seeing how bad it is. how pathetic it is. how bad our laws are. they made a big mistake. that is an assault on our country. [cheers and applause] >> in that caravan, you have some very bad people. some very bad people and we cannot let that happen to our country. to your greatking governors and senators and your attorney general who i will be introducing in a second, but talking to a lot of your people and they are going to form a wall. a different kind of a wall until we get the other one built. we need a wall built fast. fast.

we have to protect our borders. we don't have borders. we don't have a country. we have to protect our borders. host: taking your calls in the first hour this morning. the president calling that migrant caravan a "national emergency." do you agree with him? 202-748-8000. do you disagree? 202-748-8001. is aan gomez noted, it slow-moving caravan. it could get here right around election day. getting your thoughts this morning, bob in wisconsin. go ahead. caller: good morning. i am a veteran. i did not serve my country to have it overrun by illegals. you and i grew up with the law. i learned to respect the law and now these people come in. excuse me.

come in and break our laws and disrespect our nation. our sovereignty. i believe in what the president is doing. i am sad for those people, but follow the law. and any black who is listening, you are not african unless you were born there. host: the issue the washington post brings up about sending aid to these countries and the threat to cut those off, would you agree with the president on that? we lost bob. tyrone in north carolina, go ahead. caller: good morning. give me a chance to speak

please. this is sick. these people are human beings. god made all of us. this is not donald trump's country. these people are looking for a place to come and have a life. 13's and showms- proof where president trump said democrats are doing this. walking liar.s a you all put him in there and you need to get him out. this is god's country. stop putting down these people. help these people. those little children out there are sick, . stop this republican mess. we are all human beings and god made us, not donald trump. he is the worst thing i have ever seen in that white house.

let the american people see what that is. thank you and be blessed. host: jeff in texas on the line for those who agree with the president. caller: thanks, man. from north carolina, i am certain you will open your doors to 14 of them as soon as they get up that way. i support what trump is doing. i encourage everybody to vote trump. every president before him, whether it was obama or whoever, every president before trump has said we need to better enforce our borders. trump is enforcing a law that we always been there and tend to not enforce it the way we should. wemp is trying to do what have always been needing to do. it has always been a law. get legal if you are coming over

here. if you try to manhandle your way in here, that will be a problem. it is cut and dry. i love what the guys said about maybe we should let canada have them. that is all i got. , virginia, the line for those who disagree with the president. fearr: i think this is tactics at its root and it's base. they act as if these people are climbing over the wall that is not even there and breaking it down and this is really striking fear into the citizens of the united states. are some verye bad people, but there are very bad people here in the united states and a good portion of them are trump voters. it's absolutely ridiculous saying get legal when we have

people seeking asylum. asylum. just seeking this is how they come to get legal, they have to get safe. host: that is faith in virginia. a few tweets and facebook posts. lydia writes it is an invasion to destroy america and this must be stopped by all means possible. regina calling it a distraction and nick saying i don't know what to believe from anything coming out of donald trump mouth these days. speaking at that rally in texas for senator ted cruz, one of the statements he made making headlines this morning is when he declared himself a nationalist in texas. here is the headline from the washington times this morning and here is the president in texas. [video clip] >> a globalist is a person that once the globe to do well. frankly, not caring about our in texas. [video clip]

country so much. we cannot have that. they have a word, it sort of became old-fashioned. it's called a nationalist and i supposedly, we are not to use that word. i am a nationalist, ok? nationalist. [cheers and applause] use that word. [chanting "usa"] host: that was the president yesterday in texas. if you missed that rally, you can watch in its entirety. barack obama holding a rally in nevada, urging democrats to get out and vote and talked about fact and fast baked -- based policy. [video clip] -- nalysts just a vote. if you don't think it's

important, look at what republicans have done these passed few years. look at what they are saying they are going to do if you send them back to do more. here is one simple fact. simple fact. unlike some, i try to state facts. i believe in facts. host: that was president obama yesterday and you can watch that rally in its entirety at c-span.org and you can watch the washington journal in its entirety until 10:00 a.m. for the first hour, we are talking about that migrant caravan making its way north and president trump calling it a national emergency. asking if you agree. 202-748-8000 is the number to call. if you disagree, 202-748-8001. teresa is up next in tennessee on the line for those who agree. caller: good morning. host: good morning. caller: thank you. yes, i agree with what donald trump said.

mostly, the aid should be cut off to these countries. did you know that last year alone, $120 billion was sent back to these countries by illegal workers and migrants working in the usa? $53 billion alone sent back to mexico. do you get your figures from on the money being sent back? where do you get your numbers from? caller: on the internet, u.s..gov -- us.gov. 23 billion went back to -- $23 billion went back to mexico. they are taking our treasurer and sending it back. this is money-laundering. what is the difference between this and money-laundering if you ant $1 million back to

foreign country this would be illegal. i think donald trump should make it a federal crime to send money via western union back to these foreign countries. can get these people into the united states and have $23 billion sent back to them this year, that is a pretty good business. it is slavery. it is human trafficking and slavery and state sanctioned. host: i don't have those numbers you cite handy, but i can tell you about federal dollars and federal aid going to central america. guatemala, honduras, and el $300 millionive from the u.s. in fiscal year 2017. according to the wall street journal, when it comes to the president saying he would cut off aid to those countries, the

white house did not say how or when the white house would begin sending the amount of aid it sends to those countries. for fiscal year 2019, they plan $66 million to honduras and $46 million to el salvador. most funds go to violence prevention, justice, and rule of law programs along with funding for border and narcotics enforcement. ed up next in pennsylvania. good morning. caller: morning. yeah, good morning. . totally disagree with trump he makes it sound -- distorts the facts. one more live from trump. it's all political and he makes that sound as though -- it sound as though these people are seeking asylum for a better life for their children are coming over like a hoard of rats. and thisrine corps vet

is not the america i served four. donald trump is a coward. nationalist. got to have immigration reform, but there is a way to do it. drumming up the base, it is just not right. it is just not america. this is totally un-american. it says on the statue of liberty -- bring me your huddled masses. that is what these people are trying to do. there is nothing better than seeking a better life. i don't get where this guy comes from. host: you mentioned he is trying to drum up supporters. do you think this is simply a play looking at the midterm elections two weeks from now, the focus he is bringing in his

rallies and tweets on this specific migrant caravan? caller: definitely. he did the same thing during the election. he did the exact same thing. drum up fear. we are under invasion from these foreigners. it is coming in this big wave and they will take your jobs and kidnap your kids and rape your wives. it is more fear mongering, that is all he does is fear monger, fearmonger, fearmonger. it is ridiculous. john mccain said we need to get back to order. we need to bring it back. -- i don't know, this isn't right breed it just isn't right. host: that is ed in pennsylvania. one of the lead stories in the washington times, the migrant caravan will not stick as an

election issue. it is not resonating broadly with voters forcing democrats to play defense. they go through the latest polling looking at this issue, but they note two weeks ago in the campaign, it could change and a note it hasn't come up too much in the debates happening around the country. the issue more broadly of immigration and what to do about illegal immigration in this country has come up in several debates. kansas second district debate between a steve watkins and paul davis, this issue came up. here is what the candidates had to say about what the united states should do about people trying to get into this country legally and illegally. [video clip] >> i would like to say i am a build the wall guy. i don't think it is mean-spirited or bigoted to have a wonderful and generous prosperous country and we need to build a wall so we can help assure things are not traffic that we don't want.

i want to look at sanctuary cities. i don't believe we should fund them and i don't believe in chain migration or visa lottery. that being said, we are a nation of immigrants. my wife is an immigrant. we have to look at past legislation that assures that those who are here do not live of fear -- out of fear they will be deported. if they are paying taxes on following rules, we will give status.egal if not, if you are a felon, you are gone. >> thank you, mr. davis. >> the issue of immigration, there is no greater example of a congress that cannot seem to get anything done. they are fighting with each other all the time and we need comprehensive immigration reform. it starts with border security. we need more resources to make sure we stem the tide of people coming across our border. i want to listen to the experts

as to how we best do that. i support i.c.e. they play a critical role in combating human trafficking. a problem we know too much about here in kansas. i do not support sanctuary cities. law-enforcement at all levels needs to work together to stem the heart of immigration problems. we need to provide an earned path for citizenship for those here contributed to the economy and paying taxes and playing by the rules. we have to send a problem solver to congress if we are going to get comprehensive immigration reform that works for america. secondhat is kansas district debate. one of more than 90 debates c-span covered over the course of this election cycle. you can see them all at our website at c-span.org. another debate coming up tonight at 9:00 p.m.. we will show the georgia governor debate between stacey abrams and brian kemp.

you can watch that here on c-span and c-span.org or the radio app. taking your calls about this migrant caravan moving north through mexico. president trump calling it a national emergency yesterday. do you agree with the president? 202-748-8000. do you disagree? 202-748-8001. linda in tampa florida. go ahead. i would like to bring this to a personal level peru to border security asked for more workers to protect the border in 2010. they requested around 1000 workers to come down and i think obama sent them 30. i live in las cruces, el paso, and phoenix. asn then, there was as much 2 million people coming across the border from mexico.

where do all these other countries get that they can just band together and him barred our -- bombard our borders? you have just got to live on the border and see. i have a friend that was a rancher that offered water to some of these people coming across and was shot. we finally have a good economy. welfare of rome was the state. we finally have an economy where people are working. what are you going to do if you bring in 7000 more people? and makes meous wonder what democrats are going to come up with next to try to play on the election. it has become almost journalists -- humorous.

america is greater than it used to be. host: you mentioned numbers on border crossings. let me tell you the numbers i have. this from the front page of the new york times, border patrol apprehended 16,600 units -- family unit in september. that was a record figure obtained by the new york times. the total number of families that entered the country in 2018 fiscal year exceeded 100,000 for the first time in recent history. that story noting the administration is weighing actions to help plug the border and one of them would be a new form of that widely criticized family separation policy to act as a deterrent for those coming across the border. what do you think of a new form of that policy, linda? caller: actually, i think it is sad the children are separated, but we that live in this country have to go by the laws. if you are not, you are a felon.

if we have to go by the laws of this country, why shouldn't the people that enter have to adhere to the same laws? just the law. you come in and do it the right way or get kicked out, simply that. host: that is linda in tampa, florida. anthony in maryland, good morning. caller: good morning. host: go ahead. caller: yes, when trump keeps telling people that chain migration includes your siblings, parents, aunts and uncles, anson and uncles you cannot file for. you can file for your brothers and sisters and that takes 15 to 20 years. i don't know why democrats don't say that. the only person you can immediately file for that takes a short. of time -- period of time is spouses and kids. aunts and uncles cannot be filed

for. it is a lie. host: you are talking about legal immigration. legal.legal -- caller: you cannot file for anson uncles. host: what are your thoughts on this caravan moving north and the reaction to it? what should the united states do? caller: just the fear mongering. it was started by opposition in another country and that was set up to benefit them in that country. host: that is anthony in maryland. did you have something else to add? caller: no, i don't. host: jim in pittsburgh, pennsylvania. good morning. we are going to work on your line. i will give you one more try, you were not coming in very clear. we lost jim. good morning.

i agree 100% with our president and i could not tell him how to run the country. i could not walk in his shoes. and i give himb so much credit for what he has done so far to make america great again. the opposition against him is phenomenal. he keeps on doing the best he of him i am very proud and i think he is a wonderful man to take on the job, especially against the democrats. we know where their loyalties lie and it is not with the people of the united states. trump and iesident hope he goes on to 2020.

host: what do you think of the new polling numbers for the president? 47% of respondents approve of the job the president is doing while 49% disapprove. that is the best he has done in that nbc wall street journal poll since he took office. caller: i did not vote in the poll and i am sure a lot of republicans didn't. i don't believe in polls. i think he is better than that. host: that is virginia in pennsylvania. the poll found the president with a 39% approval rating just 6 months ago. democrats maintain a sizable lead among likely voters and 60% said they would prefer a democrat controlled congress and independent voters favor democratic majorities by 41% to 27%. those are the new numbers out of the nbc-wall street journal

poll. kurt in south carolina. thank you for waiting, go ahead. caller: good morning. host: good morning. caller: thank you for taking my call. i am an independent voter and i am a son of immigrants that came from germany many years ago and when they did, they needed to have sponsors to get into this country. although president trump does a lot of things the wrong way. i believe on this issue, he is right on. i believe he is taking action if he puts the military down there and i believe that is the right thing to do. i think they ought to take a whole lot of buses and put them down there as they try to get into the country and turn them around and send them back. i think any illegal aliens in this country should be deported. we all live by the rules and laws of our country and if these people need to come up and think

they can flaunt those laws, they need to be turned around and sent back home. it has to be that way. i was a trump supporter when he was coming up for election although i have been disappointed in some of his actions since being elected. on this issue, i totally agree with him. in virginia on the line for those who disagree with the president. good morning. good morning to you and good morning, america. thank you, c-span. our national emergency is the person sitting at 1600 pennsylvania avenue. i have seen the gentleman from kansas talking about we need people coming here that will pay taxes and stuff like that and we have a president that never paid taxes and bragged about it. think about that, thank you. jersey, thank you. caller: good morning. i am very interested in what is going on with the caravan.

these people should be allowed into our country. -- peoplemp should are coming here to nothing but a free ride. should work for what they have in their own country. they should force their government to take care of them. we send billions of dollars to these different countries and mexico did not stand up for us. -- marieray up next in in georgia in -- in pinelake, georgia. thinking -- i am the debate about immigration, we seem to forget something very important. in the reagan administration, the u.s. invaded guatemala, honduras, el salvador, created

debilitating many countries. this action has long-term consequences. later, we exploited gang violence when we emptied our jails in california, los angeles. -- e gangs have taken over say, don'tasy now to come here, we don't want you. east, we in the middle have responsibilities from the long-term consequences of what we do. i feel very strongly about that. thank you. host: that is marie in georgia. about 15 minutes left in this segment of the washington journal. we will get to more of your calls in just a second.

wanted to keep you updated on other headlines we are keeping caps on, including this, president trump threatening to end a cold war era nuclear arms agreement with russia. we will be talking about that specifically with daryl kimball coming up later in the program. of thecutive director arms control association having this conversation on the day the president's national security adviser, mr. bolton will be headed to russia to meet with vladimir putin. stick around for that discussion later today. this story from the washington times about the house majority seekingevin mccarthy the public's help after his office was vandalized. inin mccarthy had his office baker's bill hit by two vandals according to his official instagram account.

the california congressman posting the question does anybody know these guys with? they threw a boulder through our window and took office equipment. the story in the washington times noted he posted pictures from his security camera at his office and another one of them walking away with computer equipment. more on that as the investigation continues. police get involved in those investigations. we will see if there is more from them today on that. continuing to watch the investigation into the disappearance of jamal khashoggi and the explanation -- changing explanations from saudi arabia in that case. this is the lead story in the washington post. a video points to a saudi body double used by the 15 member saudi team in an attempt to cover up the killing of

khashoggi at the consulate in turkey. today, the president of turkey, president erdogan talked about the ongoing investigation into jamal khashoggi and here is the latest of what he had to say to reporters. [video clip] >> our security and intelligence units have some information currently being assessed and they already point to the fact .hat this was planned as the assessment of this information is concluded, they and thee -- take place investigation office. it will not satisfy. the human conscience will only be satisfied until all those from the person that gave the order to anyone who carries out

are brought to account. personally, i do not doubt the an.ng salma criticalg said, a investigation should be carried out by a delegation that is fair, truly unbiased and amongst them, there is not even the slightest suspicion of contact with the incident because this is a political killing. ,f there are other accomplices other countries should be included. international law, islamic law, and i believe the saudi arabia arabiane law -- saudi state law require this. we will follow this modern -- matter to the very end and make

sure whatever the requisite of our own law and international law is, that it will be upheld. in fact, i am making a call from here, today. is to the high level executives, primarily king salman. the issue, the incident took place in his temple -- in istanbul. the adjudication of these 16 plus people should be carried out. that is my proposal. host: president erdogan's addressed to the turkish parliament from the turkish international news channel, that 24 hour broadcast news channel. we have about 10 minutes left in this segment of the "washington

journal," continuing the discussion of the migrant caravan. talking aboutp it, tweeting about it. we want to get your thoughts on the president calling it a national emergency. if you agree with the president, 202-748-8000. if you disagree, 202-748-8001. wanda in maine, good morning. caller: good morning. to express my feelings that i think part of the caravan is as big as it is because every week the president goes to rallies, at least once how great a president he is being and how great america is and i keep hearing that word "great, great, great" over and over and over again. if people are listening and other parts of the world to him talk, they are thinking, let's

go where it is really great. part of the problem might be him making these brags at his rallies to get republicans in office. maybe if he wouldn't say everything is so great, they might not be so eager to get here. that is just my opinion. to handle theow problem, but i don't think the wall is going to do it. i don't know what to say about that. host: the wall street journal takes up this question of why migrants joint these types of these types of large caravans. leaving in a caravan is attractive because they can avoid paying $5,000 in smuggler's fees and they are safer when traveling in numbers. on the linelifornia for those who agree with the president. go ahead. caller: i sort of agree and disagree.

one of the things i would encourage is for those people who feel we should embrace these people coming into the country illegally, i would say, go ahead. they should invite them into their homes. they should assume ownership of , letolution they advocate them take care of the people and feed them and how was -- house them and let them put their money where their mouth is. you mentioned something i believe the washington post said we should double down on the money we send to these countries as foreign aid. would suggest those who think that is a good solution, let them do so. don't wait for the government. are all sorts of international organizations that provide help. they can send their money

directly in invest helping these people in their homeland so they do not need to disrupt their lives and try to come to the united states. let them put their money where and send theare money to where it will help by helping those organizations and those countries directly. thank you for listening. host: irene is next on the line for those who disagree with the president. good morning. caller: good morning. thank you for c-span and the opportunity to voice my opinion. i disagree with the president. i think he is a fearmonger. i think people deserve a chance for a better life, especially when their home country is in disarray. everything he is doing to this atrocious absolutely and everybody who supports him michelle, tampa, florida,

the line for those who agree with the president. good morning. caller: good morning. i appreciate the chance to voice my opinion also. i don't agree with everything the president does or say. he is not the most eloquent. the bottom line is what he is saying, is there truth to it? i believe in a secure borders. we are already giving aid to these countries and we are going to let everybody come over here. who is going to support these people when they come over here when there are american citizens working and barely able to have a place to stay and food to eat and take care of their kids already? we are not even taking care of our own people. on top of it, when you allow people to do whatever they want to do without order and management, what is going to happen the next time?

million this time or 500,000, what ever you want to call it. the next set, there will be a greater number and they will do the same thing. there has to be order and an ability to manage the process. otherwise, there is chaos. host: that is michelle in tampa, florida. we showed you the lead editorial in the washington post critical of the president and here is one supporting the president's plan and efforts when it comes to the caravan. the wall street journal editorial board calling it a caravan to nowhere. waves inhumanity marching in lockstep do not materialize randomly and neither did this "caravan." they write the reality -- bowing to this migration blackmail backlash.uce black --

think of germany's angela merkel and the thread -- flood of middle eastern migrants. make clear to the migrants whatever their plight, they cannot stampede over america's southern border. james, springfield, massachusetts disagrees with the president. go ahead. caller: yes, thank you. i 97 years old and i have been around for a while. i am a retired springfield police officer and i have seen a lot of stuff. things are going to get worse. i don't believe the problem is immigration. we are all immigrants from one place or another. i believe this country has turned its back against god and everything will go down from here. things are going to get a lot worse. a lot worse. this is just the beginning.

thank you. in fort myers, florida, good morning. caller: good morning, how are you doing? host: doing well. caller: i agree with the president 100% and i think the problem is these people from these other countries, especially this caravan, they don't have no respect for the president. i think that is the bottom line. they don't want to respect donald trump as the president of the united states so they all are came together and they trying to undermine his ability. they are watching how people are fighting this president. respect now.anno i can, the caravan and bogart your country. i am african american and i respect the law. we build this country on the

backs of slaves breed anybody else that wants to come here, do it the right way -- tax of slaves. anybody that wants to come here, do it the right way. i stand behind the president 100%. what i am afraid of his once they get to our border and -- is once they get to our border and we put the military, are you going to respect me and turned back around? host: how much attention do you think these individual migrants pay to politics in america? caller: yeah. i think some of them. not all of them. respect. is, it is my point is, it is respect. if you don't have respect for the president of the united states, look how they burn our flag. one man got on cnn and said i have been deported three times.

i don't care what trump say, i am going to america. i want to die. if you want to die -- are you going to disrespect my military? you are willing to die for that? more power to you. if that is what you want. host: rick in portland, oregon. good morning. caller: hello. host: go ahead, rick. caller: yes, i think it is very obvious that the midterm election is going to be andrmined by enthusiasm turnout. i am getting the very disconcerting feeling this caravan is going to motivate the trumpet voters. -- trumpet voters -- trump voters. it is clear the voters on the other side are not as inspired with the concerns of the trump people and the imagery of these people coming in in these mass

numbers might determine the outcome of this election. i am not a conspiracy theorist. if i were, i would think the trump people would have created this because it falls into their hands. i don't think it did that, but it is not perfect. if i were in control of the democratic party and how they allocate their resources, i would be putting millions and millions of dollars into containing this caravan right now, giving them doctors and food and shelter and so forth to just hold on for a while before we can get through this election. wholeyou are expecting a lot more from the president in the coming two weeks about this issue? he tweeted about it three times yesterday. caller: i think it is perfect,

the perfect storm for a trump-like approach to the country being invaded by people -- brown people and people of color. it is perfect. if he could have created it, he would have. host: that is rick in oregon. tallahassee florida, good morning. i agree with the president. 1, 80 5% of them are men. 2, these great men are putting women and children in the frontline. that is cowardice. three, they are burning our flag and flying their flag. that is an invasion. ok, so to me this is an invasion. i feel it has more to do with

the democrats because they have more to get out of this because they are talking about california. aside from that, i am sorry. i am out of breath. i agree with them and that is part of the reason i agree with them. i want it to stop. i am going to remind everybody bush put the military down in 2006 and obama did it in 2014. more power to trump to do the same and get this done and over with and put a stop to it and i feel this. that building from california are the only ones that have -- and it is not the american people. host: that is our last color in this segment. we will talk with lower the professor michael mcdonald to discuss voting trends and what

it could mean in the midterm elections. of an daryl kimball association will discuss tosident trump's promise determine the cold war era nuclear arms agreement with russia. we will be back. announcer: sunday, james mahon altering residents of john hopkins university school of advanced national studies talks about his biography of president bush. >> i do not worry about my legacy because i am studying theodore roosevelt or harry truman. they are not going to be -- there is not going to be an objective history done on this administration for a long time. >> it is not too soon to judge aspects of his legacy. it is not too soon to judge on the war in iraq. it did not accomplish what he thought it was going to a compass before he started. 4000 plus american

lives. it cost to train dollars. -- $2 trillion. i write in my book and i do not think this judgment will change. biggestne of the strategic blunders in american history. announcer: james mahon, on c-span q&a. announcer: c-span, where history unfolds. in 1979, c-span was created as a public service i america's cable companies. we continue to bring unfiltered coverage of congress, the white house, the supreme court and public policy events in washington and around the country. c-span is brought to you by your cable or satellite provider. washington journal continues.

professor michael mcdonald joins us from the university of florida in gainesville. we turned to him to get a sense of what the early voting trends can tell us about the upcoming with two weeks to go to election day, how many people have cast their ballot? guest: we are over 6 million people who voted and that number is going to escalate. what is interesting is we see unprecedented levels of early voting for midterm elections. in some states, they are above the 2016 presidential election level. in other states, they are running close to those levels and this is across the country. it is not just isolated incidents. people are engaged. they are voting and we are starting to see it with millions who cast their ballots so far. host: they are seeing the

largest turnouts from the data. is reportingota they are running above their 2016 presidential level. texas yesterday, houston reported record for any election voting for any in houston. it is a single day. we have two weeks to go. these conditions could change. tennessee, north carolina, georgia, arizona, ofada -- the list goes on places reporting turnout levels that are close to a presidential level of turnout than midterm level turnout. it is remarkable. we have never seen anything like this in american politics, where so many are voting in a midterm election this early. host: as we understand what that means, some analysts urging

caution and reading too much into early voting numbers. a reporter with the new york times tweeted you do not know to what extent early voting is expanding the electorate or pillaging your election day turnout. what do you think? guest: we have to be cautious and i am not drawing any inferences who may win the election based on numbers. the best thing we can say is there is going to be high turnout. the early vote is not the only indicator of why we might see a high turnout in the selection. we had unusually high engagement and the special elections over the past year. we saw high turnout in the primary elections. when we look at the polling, we see large percentages of people higher than normal for midterm saying they are interested in politics and likely to vote. the early vote as to all the

signals to say, the american public is engaged now and in some places, they appear to be engaged at a high level. if you think this is going to taper off, that is not what is happening. week where over a similar sorts of statements have been made saying this is a rush at the beginning. this is going to fade away. so far that is not happening where in states that have been voting for it while, we are continuing to see have levels of engagement. it is possible this will peter out before election day. we are still writing some crest of a wave and interest -- of interest in the election and this will fall apart but thorough no signs it will be. there are two options. one is this will carry through to election day and we will have exceptionally high turnout for midterm election. or it is going to fade and

fizzle and we will see a regular midterm turnout. way, if you'ret somewhat -- someone who analyzes this, at least way those two options and give credence to the possibility we are going to see exceptional turnout. host: the nice thing for professor mcdonald is he gives us the data to analyze. school through -- scroll through to therts state-by-state last midterm election in 2014. go through the data or join us with the conversation. if you voted early, we would like to hear from you. 202-748-8000 is the number if you are planning to vote early. 202-748-8001 having this conversation the day after president trump held

another rally. this one is for ted cruz in texas yesterday. professor mcdonald, how much do these individual rallies boost early vote turnout in the states where the president has been? guest: the obama campaign and 2008 was the first presidential campaign that tried to take advantage of early voting and they would hold rallies next early voting locations and encourage people at the rally to vote early. if you had already voted and have that i voted sticker, they would give you preferential treatment at the front of the already and's. -- audience. they do these things to encourage people cast their ballot. kickoff, they are typically holding rallies to encourage supporters to cast their ballots as early as they can. it is important for the campaigns because elected

officials are tracking information. they are going to make sure no one votes more than once. they can be sure they are tracking this carefully. it is like election day votes. they track this at the individual level. all the ballots people are casting and methods by which they cast them and they said that information with the campaign and in some places, they are sharing that publicly in the form of reports another things and that is where the numbers trash on my website, that is where those reports come from. when the campaigns get this information, they know these are the people who voted and scratch those people off their list of people to contact. once you vote early, you are not going to get in more mail. you are not going to get any more phone calls. it is an efficient for them to talk to somebody who has voted. this allows them to campaign deeper into their list of people they want to get out and turnout

to vote. what happens in the early voting period is it extends the campaign for their voter mobilization from one day around election data weeks and in some cases -- in some states out there. eta --juanita voted early. guest: i voted straight democrat if they -- if i could. i voted no on the amendments most of them. on most of them. i do not know what else to say but i did vote early and i think the republicans are acting awful . they are lying about everything. i do not know why trump has a overver -- is not turned

-- he said he would turn over his taxes after the audit but they are not turned over. they are lying about democrats and trump is lying about republicans. he says he will keep pre-existing conditions and their but like everything else, he lies about it so i do not believe that for one minute. juanita one of 907,000 people in florida who voted early. you can vote early in one of two ways. explain the numbers. the vast majority through returning mail-in ballots early, but there is early in person voting in florida. 2000 people voted that way. there are two ways in which people can vote in florida. this is different across the country. a permanent absentee.

it is a carryover request from two general elections. we get millions of people. then there is the in person early vote. that in person early voting started yesterday and as we sit here, the florida secretary of state office is updating the new numbers. i expect we are probably somewhere around 1.3 or 1.4 million people who voted in florida because there were reports of record numbers voting in person yesterday. riding --aces, it is rivaling presidential election. it is incredible the interest people are putting in devoting. the other thing important in a state like florida is we have constitutional amendments on the ballot and we have a long ballot. -- ballot as the caller was alluding to. important to work your way

through that ballot. what happens with the early voting is it helps them manage the flow of people because if we have this long ballot and everyone was trying to vote on takeion day, people would their time. it is a long ballot and the lines would get long and longer. they would have trouble processing so many people. by having your color and other people in florida castor ballots early, it relates pressure we have on election day. one other thing is it is important to understand we had a major hurricane come through. i am in gainesville but 200 miles west of us, their communities have been devastated by hurricane michael. people there will be able to vote by various methods. early voting as part of that. it is a disaster preparedness plan for elected officials has your not crippled.

imagine if that hurricane had come down on election day and wiped out polling locations. people would not have been able to dissipate. by extending the time, it allows the more opportunities, especially in a case we have had a major disaster. host: good morning in massachusetts. caller: good morning. backt my absentee ballots 9 toballot back october the city hall in somerville as i voted absentee and i voted democratic. i think trump is a liar. i think the republicans are liars. i hope the people in other -- before it is too late. mcdonald,essor

massachusetts one of the states where you do not have numbers now on early votes. why is that? guest: some states are great about how they release information and reports and others you have to call up election officials and get those numbers. on something else that color said and i think this goes to the other segments you have in washington journal, people are impassioned now. loved trump -- either you him or hate him. he is a polarizing figure and the policies in his -- his --inistration put forth passions in this country. when emotions are raw and you feel like you need to take action and empower yourself, that is when you go out and vote. far is theseo passions are playing out in people taking action and voting and it is both sides.

the republicans voting to and immigrants -- too and democrats. trump say he is on the ballot even though he is not. in some ways, he is on the ballot. he is influencing people's passions and that is showing up now in a way in which people are voting in record numbers early. president,ing of the he tweeted all levels of government and law enforcement are watching carefully for voter fraud. she that your own peril. it is civil and criminal. can you talk about the rest of mcdonald, any studies when it comes early voting? guest: there are people who cast fraudulent votes. those are people who unintentionally cast a ballot. they are typically older people. they will vote by mail but

forget or be concerned may be election officials did not get their ballot and they will attempt to cast a second ballot because they're concerned the .ote wasn't counted the first thing is, if you are concerned in that way. the best thing is contact your election officials. some states have trackers on their website that can value whether or not they received your ballot. that is one way to protect -- prevent yourself from getting in this situation you may cast a second vote. nationally, the numbers of fraudulent votes are small. .hey do occur for political reasons, there are governments of their that would like to payment -- demonstrate there is massive vote fraud. the republican government in

the secretary of state who was on the trump integrity commission with the cochairman, he was given prosecuting power over allegations of vote fraud. cases.brought 50 happens.e when it election officials do have told available to them to make sure people are only voting once and they are eligible to vote. you cast your ballot, it is not being diluted somehow. there are not illegal immigrants casting ballots. there are not people voting twice. those are rare instances. most people are doing what most people do, which is they vote once. we abide by the law.

we are one country. it is important everybody votes and they can be a short election officials are monitoring of the -- that theave elections are run with integrity. host: about 10 minutes left. his website, you can track early voting in this country. lots of calls for you. rocky is planning to vote early. go ahead. i would just like to say i never did vote my whole life until i raised last year. -- registered last year. i think what donald trump is doing and mitch mcconnell -- we had a big deal going with mitch which i do not want to name now. this mcconnell has been in office too long and he does

nothing for kentucky. we work in mines and i am 62. can how to do nothing. trump does not care about these people. they are not owe bring -- opening their eyes. they are here to see what is going on with this. they are mistaking a playwright from a book of hitler's. for some reason, i do not know. he is full of lies and so is mitch mcconnell. host: a new voter in kentucky. professor mcdonald? caller: when we look at data we have and can look at the past vote history of people, we're seeing people who did not participate in the 2014 election.

that is not surprising in some respects because 2014 was a low turnout election. it was the lowest turnout we have had since 1942 for a midterm election in the country. we have got people voting. we can see people like the last color who have been disengaged from politics but now i gauged in voting. we are likely going to have a high turnout. how high is it is a good question. if we look at a typical midterm election in the last three decades, turnout rates have been around 40% of those eligible to vote. i am not great at all. now, whoe seeing knows? we will get through the end of the early voting period. we will probably be on par with we hired for bitter

elections in the 1950's, which was up to 48%. if we beat that, that is the possibility of the selection. if patterns persist, it is what is -- what we're seeing now. didn't you have to go back to 1914 to see a turnout rate of 50% for a midterm election? think about that. historicving through times where we are going to see a turnout rate most people for a midterm never experienced in their lives. it may be the will see a rate that no one has experienced. it is interesting to see if this will persist but now people like the last caller who are voting, who have been disengaged from politics in the past, are driving in part on the high turn . we see it in early voting so far. in 2014, the last midterm.

1.5 million voted early. mary visited -- voted early in houston. caller: yes i voted and i voted democrat. to hear 36,000 has already voted the first day. you are talking about something. we have never seen what we -- like what we are fixing the sea. they will come in because they are inspired and excited and want change and part of all this trump is doing. if we want to keep this country so all of us could be here, we better get out there and vote and keep this country. we are on the verge. host: that is mary in texas. professor mcdonnell, the youth vote this cycle?

. what can we tell from early numbers? host: the reports i saw -- reports i saw yesterday was a record for any election, even a presidential election. it was something special in houston. the caller was part of that. democrats usually suffer a turnout fatigue when it comes to a midterm election. it is a lower turnout election and the people who typically voted were raised, tend to drop off older voters. when we have a higher turnout election, the higher turnout is going to come from the people who do not participate so much. if we are going to have a higher turnout, likely what we are going to see his younger people having disproportionately higher turnout than other groups, older

people as well. expect the youth turnout will be ok in the selection but this has been a chronic problem in this country. young people tend to not devote even in a presidential election. in a midterm election, we're lucky to get 30% ages 18 to 29. host: in 2014, it was in the 20% range. guest: that was a low turnout election, so what may happen, maybe five-40%, let's hope it goes higher. works best when everybody participates, not just one segment of the population. elected officials are responsible for the people who vote. you need to empower yourself. you need to vote so election officials can hear your voice and they will be responsive. i hear a lot of the time, politicians do not talk to me on your and people -- among young people. they do not call -- talk about

the issues i care about. if you do not vote, they are not going to care. you do not vote because they are not talking language. you have to break out of this cycle and there are groups doing good work trying to encourage you to turnout. let's hope they are successful and we have good participation of all segments from our society, not just one from one. host: minerva in ohio is next, linda? caller: i am going to vote on election day. i am scared. i am scared for the republicans and democrats. i am going to vote republican because if the democrats change, i was a democrat for years. they scared me. becauseo go republican the stock market is selling and

they are going to a panic with democrats getting back in. we have to wait and see what happens. i was the democrats would get their heads out of the sand because it is sad. and bothen democrat sides scare me. i will vote on election day. i want to thank you for taking my call. thank you. host: what do you want to take from that? example ofeat dynamics we see with the vote and this is why we have to be careful about interpreting what is going to happen on election day. generally, across the state, democrats vote early and election day tends to be more towards the republicans favor. it is not universal but those attendances we see across the state. host: why is that? what conclusions have withdrawn for the reason? guest: that is a good question

because this is a dynamic we have seen for several election cycles and we can look. there are states that report their election results by voting so it is not polls we have to look at to understand this. we can look at election results and see this is a pattern that persists. not universally true but in most states, it is true. i can only guess that what happens here is more traditional people are used to voting on election day and so republican party being a party more traditional, those voters tend to prefer to have their experience of voting occurred on election day. my best guess and in some cases, alexa days going well. states out in the west, oregon, washington, colorado.

there are counties in california that adopted. they are moving in that direction. we see mail balloting across the country and other places as well. towards not even having an election day experience like we used to have. colorado has locations that would be open on election day but it is not like the local community locations where anyone within a county can come and vote at that vote center anywhere. you do not have to go to your school or church you have been voting it for many years. things are changing. in west virginia, military voters voting by a cell phone app and these innovations typically start with the military so i would not be if wesed in 10-15 years start seeing the general population able to vote.

thinkchanges happening, i the traditional way of voting and you think of yourself that way, voting on election day would be a choice of voting. host: time for one more call. nina, go ahead. minutes totook me 55 an hour to fill out my florida votes. the reason was because the amendments are so confusing and so when you read it, you think you are voting for one thing and then they have a; and something totally different. lord of voters need to be aware of them doing that. that is the only thing the ballots that made any sense. greyhounds reising. you could put clear cut yes sir no sir.

all the other amendments were confusing and i was disappointed. she got to the top one 200 for governor and everything but the constitutionals are crazy in florida this year. host: professor mcdonald? we have a long ballot in florida because we had a constitutional revision commission. when we go through the regular battle initiative process here, we have them in florida. you have to have a single subject. the best commission is not subject to that restriction so they get mashed together in different parts of the constitution and revise at the same time. along the lines of the last caller, i am going to to devote no one those because they look to be intentionally confusing to get people to cast your ballot

in favor of things that may be hidden in those initiatives but the one i support is the follmann enfranchisement. once you have done your time, used be able to restore rights. -- dodo that in florida not do that in florida. i would rather we give everybody the right. host: less than a minute left, take us through what you are looking for this week in early voting. the scum of mine every day leading up to the election. what are you watching for? now that we have had states start with in-person early voting and have mail ballots out, these early vote numbers are going to rack up quickly. we could be looking at more than a million a day new voters as we progress and if the pattern

persists, by the end of the week we will be over 2 million a day people voting. these numbers will escalate. the option is it is rough and going to fade away. scenario we in that are still going to see how the volumes of early voting. we are going to see a fair number of ballots. when we get to the end of next week, we're going to have a much clearer sense of the derail turnout. there could be states where early voting is two thirds of the electorate world or early. nevada is one of high-volume's of early voting. georgia, south carolina -- north carolina. when we get ballots in and votes, by the end of next week,

if they are beating 2014, we are going to have a higher turnout. if the early votes are a sizable percentage larger than it has been in past elections, and in some cases we stayed running three to four times the made in 2014. i lack the words to explain -- to express how many are voting now. it is unprecedented in politics. we should be able to make judgments about whether or not we're going to have a turn the -- turnout election with voters as well. all. stay on top of it it is run by michael mcdonald. it was appreciate your time. up next, we will be joined

by daryl kimball of the armed control association. we will discuss president trump's promise to pull the u.s. out of a nuclear arms agreement with russia. david wasserman will be here to discuss his that desperate look on his battle for control of the south. with two weeks ago, we will be back. announcer: c-span's competition is in full swing. teachers have taken the social media or sing about their entries. few to have shared a immature moments as they seek the documentaries and are the c-span student. eighth graders create my america collages, to brainstorm for c-span classroom.

what does it mean to be american? katie storms tweeted behind the scenes to in the scenes, created posters for 18 students to break down the student. excited to process their idea. at oklahoma, senator james lankford tweeted i visited with yukon public schools, who as they work on their project for documentary composition. we are asking middle and high school students to present the documentary. $20,000 in cash prizes grand one. -- a announcer: c-span were history unfolds daily. in 1979, c-span was created by a

public service -- as a public service. we continue to bring you unfiltered coverage of congress, the white house, the supreme court and public policy events in washington, d.c. and around the country. c-span is brought by your satellite provider. washington journal continues. daryl kimball is the executive director of the nonpartisan gun control association. the intermediate lane to nuclear forces agreement. explain what that does. imf treaty is the for short. this was a gorbachev treatment. it eliminated in the entire class of intermediate-range

missiles, missiles that fly anywhere from 300 to 500 miles and these were deployed in europe. western russia against nato allies, by the united states .gainst russia these were seen as dangerous because they had short flight times. there was no warning if they were going to be used. --ains in gorbachev agreed it has been successful. soviet missiles, russian missiles. russia has been accused by the united states and the accusation intrue of casting a missile a way that violates the treaty. this dispute has been going on since 2014. there have been discussions but no resolution.

the treaty has been in jeopardy for some time but it is still working to protect european security from the emergence of the potential threat during the cold war. that is the issue and today john bolton is meeting with vladimir putin to discuss this issue as well. might get news out of that meeting as we have this conversation. president trump brought up that issue of russian cheating on the agreement yesterday. when he talked about why he is eliminating it, and u.s. nuclear arsenal, here is what he had to say. >> we will build that up. russia has not adhered to the agreement. it should have been done years ago. until people come, we have more money than anybody else about -- else by far. we will build up. then we will all be fine.

and we will -- by the way, not only we will stop, we will reduce which i would love. now they have not adhere to the agreements. it is a threat to whoever you want and includes china and russia and anybody else that wants to play that game. you cannot do that. you cannot play that game on me. they have not adhered to a third of that agreement or to the agreement itself. china is not included in the agreement. they should be. nobody close to us. i do not have to speak to him. gas permeating the agreement because they violated the agreement. let's impact the

president's arguments. he said we are -- >> the president is trying to sound tough by saying we're not going to tell a rate the russian noncompliance. we should be top with russia about this. noncompliance is a problem. russia is the guilty party but president trump is saying we are going to terminate the agreement. one problem for this is the attentione blame gets . if president trump wants to bring back to complain, threatening to terminate the trip -- the tree to you is going to make you happy because they can assert they have been meeting with the terms of the treaty and theis pulling out. with thisproblem is argument, is we are going to

build up our missiles with -- missiles if the other country is going to do this. in europe or in asia. we have sophisticated land in china economic targets in and the same with russia. deploy, ground launched missiles as would have done in the 1980's, there is no nato allies that are going to want to host the mid--- post these missiles. direct commerce server see within nato. we are years away from developing any such system. the russians are in a position. accelerate the production and the climate if they want to. you hear about russia's

potential. if you have questions about this republicans 202-748-8000 -- 202-748-8001 : 202-748-8000 caller: -- guest: can you speak more about the chinese concern from the russia perspective? host: this treaty is between -- from: this treaty is china. you heard the president say if china were in this treaty, russia would like it if china was in this treaty. russia would like it if russia eliminated all its intermediate-range missiles because that is the bulk of china's smaller nuclear arsenal.

they have weapons. that is why the chinese are never going to enter into this back in 2007,e the russians came to the united states and said, let's internationalize this agreement. -- another. other there was no effort by the united states or russia. there was no rush by countries like pakistan, india, china who have these systems. if we want to engage china in a , they have military systems and how we can strike a balance that leads to greater stability. we are going to have to talk to the chinese and consider what

their concerns are. by the way, armed control trol.com.on armscon there is the map on your screen. china on the map. 280. we are with daryl kimball, the executive director of that organization. he is taking a call. in virginia, a republican. caller: thank you for taking my call. i would like to say it seems like the democrats want war. they keep going on about them. if you goabout it is to the kings bible -- king james

bible and go to chapter 38, it tells you what exactly will happen. there is a general who said last twothey sold the cheap and they want to take it back away from us. that, you are dead. he will to you exactly what is going to happen. it is good to know the future. threatsryl kimball on from russia. guest: we got a good deal but we need to continue talking with them about how to reduce the threat posed by our largest nuclear arsenals? have problems with russia over ukraine, election interference, the violation of the chemical weapons convention. we need to talk how to regulate

the dangerous nuclear relationship. fore is bipartisan support continued arms control with russia. this group of republicans, democrats spoke up in a congressional hearing three weeks ago in support of the new strategic arms treaty which is another treaty. you start, which also has an uncertain future because it is going to expire in 2021. democrats urging president obama and president trump to work hard with russia, to confront russia about these treaty violations russia back into the light. andeed to regulatory's in a reduce the size of arsenals. excess and what

each site needs to do. have astates and russia total of 4000 or so total about 1400 of those are on strategic long-range systems. that is a lot of firepower. each side can reduce further these access numbers. host: one tweet from senator jeff merkley from oregon talking about the inf treaty. yesterday, saying there is no question russia violated the -- why.hich is why the should be reinforcing efforts, not scrapping it. of course the president yesterday saying he is going to scrap it. darlene is in riverview, michigan. democrat. caller: good morning.

intelligence to benefit this information, intelligently, actual. [indiscernable] joseph is waiting in long beach, california. go ahead. joseph? joseph, one more try. there'll cable, as we wait or the next color. what is the process from drawing from a tree? >> he has to notify the other -- treaties.he

they were former soviet states. they were intermediate range missiles and factories and their territory so they are formally a part of this agreement. united states would have to deliver a letter explaining why we are withdrawing. six-month set off a exit timeline. withdrawn.would have i do not think tumbled and has gone to moscow with a big exit letter for the russians. it appears though he is telling the russians we will terminate and the president is saying, i will. if the russians do not do something. one important question is what is john bolton trying to get the russians to do in response to this threat? he's small and john bolton is a smart guy, he would say

russia, you just take the following steps to come back in the compliance with the treaty. try mutual transparency visits. we would like to see this missile. we would like to examine it. we would like to prove it is capable of flying beyond the range and if we find that out, theseld like to eliminate missiles and they are probably two 3000 the russians have their own concerns. this says we have not violated the treaty and we are worried .bout your missile some will be designed in are many a and some in poland, designed to shoot down weapons. weapons will be loaded on archer's -- launchers.

we want to make sure the launchers cannot be here to fire missiles. offer.d also visit the sites to make sure we're not putting offensive missiles in. there has to be some sort of wind. that gives the russians some a say out of this. is one of the things john bolton is posing on the the first step. we are not going to get all details about what went on behind coal -- closed doors. i think we listen to the reaction from vladimir putin and what john bolton says about the timeline for u.s. exit. host: roses in chicago, democrat. caller: that is funny. we are going to wait for a reaction from putin?

that is odd we are going to wait for the kgb top guide to give us a reaction. i digress. helsinki, 2.5 hours in secret, no americans allowed. none of them were allowed to know what went on 2.5 hours with the top kgb guy in helsinki. if this was part of putin's plan to begin with. do not cut me off yet. wondering why nobody is speaking about theresa may's comment, the prime minister of is russia'sit actions that threaten the international order of which we

all depend. oil?bout venezuela's oilmericans know chavez's 's oil?n do need to worry about nuclear weapons in venezuela? odd that president trump wanted to meet with president putin alone in moscow at that summit. it was odds he was so laudatory of mr. putin in his press conference afterwards. it is important for election leaders to sit down and talk with these issues. the trump administration is to betray transparent about what it is trying to pursue. i was in moscow for meetings with russian experts a week after the helsinki summit.

we found more from the russians than we did from the press or the administration about some discussions. they did talk about nuclear arms control. they did talk about issues. they did not going to a lot of debt. what is troubling is since the meeting, there has only been to meetings about important issues. both led by john bolton. his security advisor back in september and there is this trip. there has not been a lot of dialogue. there has been information from the administration. especially what the plan is and what is coming. and this announcement's termination of the president stopped in nevada saturday night, came before the united states informed allies, let alone consulted whether it was a

good idea. the germans were taken by the surprise. -- was developed to build up security. i think the process the trumpet ministration has been pursuing is problematic. i hope results are lot better -- a lot better. host: i want to go back to the genesis of this agreement. this is president reagan talking about the inf, following a three-day summit with mikell gorbachev. we took a step but still a critical one of enduring a more the most feast, a step important since world war ii. i am referring to the tree we

signed. i believe this tree represents a landmark in post will history. it is not just an arms control button arms reduction this agreement is not simply established. it reduces a number of such weapons. all together abolishes an entire class come of the verification measures in the street or something you. with far-reaching applications, on-site inspections and short notices. again, this is a first-time event. that is why i believe this treaty when adam the rest of the third of four, but can speed alone the process that may someday move that threat entirely. host: your back -- your thoughts

on 1987. guest: this was the beginning of the end of the cold war. it is right around reagan's sent. said he keptone the boast of those arsenals. this is important in that respect. this was not the end. this is the first step. the reagan administration and the george h. w. bush administration to negotiate with president trump and the russians on reductions in a strategic nuclear weapon. was thears later, there conclusion of the reduction treaty. that is substantially reduced nuclear arsenals from the strategic arsenal were 10,000 on each side, down to three or 4000 2010, thatas in

barack obama as the start treaty was expiring think -- expiring. the new start treaty. that treaty which went into effect in 2011 and continues the legacy of ronald reagan. it reduces the strategic arsenal to 1550 deployed warheads and no more than 700 delivery vehicles, the missiles and the bombs. that treaty has important inspection provisions and allows them to see whether it is going ahead with the reductions. that treaty will expire in 2021. president trump and vladimir putin will have to decide whether to extend it and they can do it by five years to 2026 without further senate or duma debate and ratification which makes easier. or they could trash it and if

the treaty goes away, we will not have legally binding limits on the world's two largest nuclear arsenals for the first time since 1972. that is why this situation with the possible termination of inf and with other countries, including the quality, if not the size of their arsenal, we are entering the most difficult period in new clear arms control in decades -- nuclear arms control in decades. host: gabriel in maryland, republican. caller: thank you for taking my call. unconsideration of the charter, known chomsky talked about a charter against 's is and how we announced -- against

s, is, and -- space force several orbit causing tremendous damage. of much is the development nuclear forces in russia and china in response to our version -- our aggression? guest: the united states, china, russia, we are reacting to one another. constantly trying to make sure we are not caught by surprised militarily. arms control and diplomacy are a part of making sure there is a balance and a reduction of tensions and a reduction of threats. you mentioned space weapons. it is a reminder that when dealing with the nuclear challenge for decades but there are new weapons technologies that are on the horizon and are here that could make the likelihood of nuclear war

greater and the risk of a miscalculation and crisis even more severe. for instance, there are hypersonic weapons in development by china, russia, and the united states which can reach their targets because they fly at fast speeds in minutes, much faster than ballistic missiles. that reduces the warning time for other countries and can affect the stability in a crisis. each of these countries are developing cyberattack capabilities that could disrupt the other countries nuclear command and control in a crisis which can make the other country nervous and may lead them to launch earlier in a crisis than they should. ande are a lot of threats all of this means that the united states and russia and china need to sit down with one another and have military to military, state department to state department conversations

about strategic stability to make sure no country is surprised or we have misperceptions that can lead heads of state and military leaders to make wrong courses at the wrong time and could lead to a conflict. if there is a conflict between these countries, nuclear war could be the result of nuclear war is a catastrophe for each of these countries. --buddy inn texas texas, democrats line. caller: all your points have been really cool and it makes sense. the thing i am looking at is that we are throwing away all of the salt talks and everything else. warlooking at a new cold which does not make sense to me. we have already gone through all of that. we have been passed it. kennedy dealt with it.

and now it is like, we are going back to -- we are not learning from history anymore. somee going back to ungodly idea where nuclear missiles can help, it can take out a plethora of areas. host: i will give you the last minute. guest: very well said, nuclear challenges we have been dealing with for decades, we have managed to get through crisis, sometimes through good management -- good management, good diplomacy, sometimes by a lot and we have to be careful to reduce threats without alternatives in place. with respect to the intermediate nuclear forces treaty, not to many people may have heard about it because it is 30 years old. before we give up on making sure

russia is complying, we have to make sure there is an alternative in place and one of the questions people on capitol hill have been asking already and the donald trump administration has to answer, if you will terminate this treaty, what is your strategy for going forward to regulate these intermediate range missiles and what is the strategy for dealing with the strategic news -- nuclear arsenal of russia? questions beyond the immediate questions that trump's announcement on saturday has raised. host: daryl kimball is the executive director, we appreciate your time. guest: thank you. host: next, david wasserman joins us to discuss his outlook for the battle of control of the house and to take your questions about the races you are most interested in with two weeks until the midterm elections. we will be right back. ♪

&a, weday on c-span's q talked about a darkly of president george w. bush -- biography of president george w. bush. >> i do not worry about my legacy because i'm still studying theodore roosevelt or harry truman. there will be not be an objective history done on this administration for a long time. >> too soon to judge on some aspects -- not too soon to judge on some aspects of his administration, the war in iraq because it did not accomplish what he thought it would accomplish before he started the war. it cost 4000 plus american lives and $2 trillion.

write in my book and i do not think this judgment will change. it was one of the biggest strategic blunders in american history. >> james mann sunday night at 8:00 eastern. c-span, where history unfolds daily. in 1979, c-span was created as a public service by america's cable television companies and today we continue to bring you unfiltered coverage of congress, the white house, the supreme court, and public policy events in washington, d.c. and around the country. c-span is brought to you by your cable or satellite provider. "washington journal" continues. host: the battle for control of the house is our topic until

10:00 a.m., cook house editor david wasserman is our guest in that time. call and to let us know about your favorite house race. republicans call 202-748-8001. democrats, 202-748-8000. independents, 202-748-8002. in, to getre calling a sense of what the house field looks like, i want to quote your story from the end of last week, 75 of the 435 seats up in the house as honorable for a takeover -- vulnerable for a takeover with 70 by republicans and only five held by democrats. what do you rate the chances of democrats taking the house? guest: pretty good. heading into the home stretch and we believe the democrats have a 70%, 75% chance of taking

the majority but not a done deal and it will come down to a wide battlefield of races relative to previous elections. astrict level polls suggest polarization of the house in the last month along the lines of the 2016 presidential race. the way i think of this midterm election is the blue wave is concentrated in laces that are within a 20 minute drive of a whole market. that is where democrats are doing well. and district level polls, democrats are maintaining their leaves and a lot of these upscale suburbs where republicans are currently trailing in places outside of denver, chicago, minneapolis, northern virginia, kansas city, republican incumbents are still behind in those districts that hillary clinton carried. republican numbers improving in trump won districts admiral minnesota and downstate illinois where we moved a race from

tossup to leaning republican this morning. upstate new york. the math is sorting itself out. map is sorting itself out. democrats ceiling may be lower than a month ago. anything from a 20-40 seek democratic gain, they need 23 seats to retake the house and the likeliest outcome is again between 25-35 seats. host: if republicans retain control, they would have to pick up a couple of seats to make that pad larger. we talk about democrats and open targets, are there any targets for republicans this cycle? guest: yes and they have to take advantage of those offensive opportunities to hold off the majority. the most obvious are in minnesota. republicans are doing will -- well in the eighth district were a democrat is leaving congress and the candidate, the

republican, is a pretty good fit for this blue-collar seat. he is a former minor-league hockey player, on the police force in duluth for a long time and has opened up a lead over the democrat in a district that donald trump won by 15 points. they also have an opportunity in southern minnesota in the first congressional district in which tim walz is leaving to run for governor. two openlooking at seats in nevada, the third and fourth districts in las vegas metro area. republicans, in order to hold the majority, probably need to win two or three of those democratic seats. host: we will be talking about many house seats over the next 45 minutes. in about 15 minutes, the house is scheduled to go to a brief pro forma session and we will take you there for live gavel to only expected to

be a minute or two so stick around and we will be on the backside of that to talk about house races. sam up first in pittsburgh, pennsylvania, republican. good morning. caller: good morning. when donald trump said he was about to end this, he blamed obama because he did not end it sooner. i agree with our president, we have enough enemies and we do not want to make more of them and give them visas. think, wepshire, i should change it to his name. asked all american people to ask governments to do this. this is the least we could do in honor of his death and for reminding saudi arabia is that this shame will always be by their side.

host: sam talking about the nuclear treaty and the ongoing investigation in the jamal khashoggi death and disappearance. how much are voters in these races focusing on these international issues versus the more domestic or even local issues in their districts? guest: not so much on international is -- international issues, a split screen election in the democrats and republicans talking past each other on the campaign trail. democrats are focused on health care, specifically running against republicans vote to repeal the aca. mostlicans -- the advertisement is pre-existing conditions, that is -- the democratic base is very fired up about president trump and his temperament. that is something democrats are talking about less on the

campaign trail. republicans have closed the enthusiasm gap a bit in the last month or so, a new poll that came out this week suggested that democrats have about a four-point lead in midterm interest, down from a 10 point average they held for most of the and likely that some of the issues republicans are talking the culturaly, flashpoints like the brett kavanaugh confirmation fight, and migrant caravans are better suited issues for rallying in awakening the donald trump base and tax cuts. they are more visceral and tax cuts fell flat on special elections. host: here is an ad from minnesota's first district race. hitting the republican in the race on the issue of health care. >> it is a health care plan that only a d.c. bureaucrat to love, jim hyde on's plan would strip

people with pre-existing conditions like cancer and p plan saysd the aar it would charge older americans five times more and increase health care costs or middle-class families. his health care plan will hurt southern minnesota. political.com.k that race, you have is a tossup. explain why. guest: the only democratic set -- seat in the tossup column, democrat -- a democrat is leaving to run for governor and is doing pretty well. -- this isvive the rural, southern minnesota, the farm bill. -- belt. even though donald trump won by

about 15 points, less likely to thanue trump believers people who cast votes against tiller clinton, and they are skeptical of tariffs. -- against hillary clinton and they are skeptical of tariffs. democrats probably have a better chance of holding the seat. the republicans nominated a candidate who robs them of their ability to cast him as an outsider. democrats -- the republican candidate spent a lot of his adult career as a congressional staffer. and working for the congressional -- the bureau of printing and engraving. his status as a son of a former

congressman prevent republicans from running cleanly against the democrat as a carpetbagger. host: new jersey, john, democrat line. am interested in to republican incumbent congressman andew jersey, tom mcarthur, leonard lance. what is the story on those? guest: i love these races because oftentimes i talk with other pundits about which races will be the bellwether elections. argues it will be his home district. someone from the new york times it says that says it will be washington 8th but i think it will be new jersey seven, leonard lance, a moderate republican, one of only eight

republicans in the house to vote for cap and trade in 2009 but he is walking a political tightrope because he is been hit from the right in the primary and now being hit on the left by a democrat who used to be the washington director of human rights watch. one of the only democrats who is talking a lot about russia on the campaign trail and raising a lot of money based on his work for -- and his connections leading organizations in d.c. this is a high spending race we view as a tossup at the moment. the third district is in south new jersey and, whereas donald trump narrowly lost the seventh district in central-north new jersey he nearly won the district in south new jersey. ,he problem with tom macarthur he has a much more conservative voting record than lance and broker the american health care

act, the republican proposal for repeal and replace of obamacare last year and democrats are calling him the architect of the aca repeal. kim, whorat, andy worked as an isis advisor in the obama white house, perhaps taking a narrow lead in the third district. those will be some of the races to decide the majority and new jersey could turn into a bloodbath for republicans considering they are in line to lose two open seats. host: arnold in knoxville, tennessee, good morning. are you with us? in ohio.annette good morning. caller: i have a question. what do you believe -- looking for his viewpoint, not what he

thinks is more of a general look at it, but what does he personally think that the democrats will win, if you things that, how many seats by, and does he think the democrats have a chance in winning in the senate? i am asking all voters to vote democrat. too many senators and congressmen are voting lock stock and barrel with donald trump. if this was a primary and there was anything like what is out there, they would be downgrading trump but they're worried because he took their state and there is still strong backing for trump that i say please vote blew up another ticket. what does he think about that, his own personal view for the house and senate? host: you talked about your predictions but can you talk to those ranges more? guest: senate and house may as well be mars and venus because

the senate will be decided by red, rural states where the democrats are on the defensive. the house will be decided by the swing suburban seats were donald 51% ofwon between 45 and the vote and a lot of those seats up for grabs. this is a wide battlefield. one of the biggest drivers of this blue wave is the red exodus. the record number of republicans leaving, 41 republicans held house seats without an incumbent on the ballot this fall, a record going back over a century. out of those 41 seats, there are nine where we rate democrats as the favorite and six we rate as tossups. if the tossups -- wit, democrats the government wealth -- democrats pick up 12, happy 23 they need for the house majority, the zynga's biggest --

the biggest driver. host: batesville, arkansas, democrat, good morning. caller: here in arkansas, on social media, has been captured by the democrats candidate in texas in the round rock-austin area, and air force combat is against a republican incumbent. very noteworthy campaign ads on social media, on youtube, she is very much behind the veterans affairs of course. not sure how she stands on other issues but she seems to be capturing a lot of attention. that seems to be a very interesting race. i was wondering your thoughts on that race. host: david wasserman?

guest: a lot of interest in the 34th district from outside of the district in texas, democrats have had enormous fun raising, and big success at raising money from a base of very passionate democrats nationally thanks to viral videos. the candidate is an air force veteran, search and rescue pilot who sued the defense department to open up more combat positions to women. device and sheor has potentially a movie being made about her life starring angelina jolie. a democratic ad maker, the best in the business, put together a storyy ad about her life that became a viral since asian. -- viral since asian. -- viral sensation.

it raised a lot of money in the central texas, a very republican district, she has used cutouts of the video for 32nd ads in the district. in the district. we have not seen those ads move the numbers comparable to the money she has raised. the republican has been there since 2002 and not face a serious race before, still has a double-digit lead. it is a long shot for the democrat. talk aboutd we will on thursday on this program when we look at the best and worst political ads of the 2018 cycle and we encourage viewers to turn in not -- tune in on thursday. stephen california, independent. -- steve in california, independent. --ler: i have heard about

this is the 28 election like this i have been involved in. thinkappalling to americans do not want health care in their system of getting things done. it is like going to work and having a responsible health care. we do not need a lawyer every time we want to see a doctor. that is a position a lot of these responsible elected officials have put this country into. i would like to see a fall back on people looking at the facts. looking at them in a way that will improve the future of everyone. host: david wasserman, the issue of health care? guest: it is the number one issue in house races this year. math,o speak about the

what is striking to me about the battleground is that democrats could conceivably gain all 23 seats they need from a handful of states, from california, that is the biggest treasure trove of vulnerable republican seats for democrats. after that, pennsylvania has seven vulnerable republican seats, partly because the state supreme court issued a new map that benefits democrats. illinois, new jersey, virginia, also key states. health care is the top issue in those races but something else is going on, a lot of those dates -- states, the highest taxed states in the countries, some of the wealthiest districts with highest taxes and the democratic message is a dual track, running against s against pre-existing conditions but flipping the script to run against

republicans as the party of high taxes for voting for change. states youof the mention key for control of the house, california, pennsylvania, minnesota, we would do a state-by-state analysis next week talking about the house battleground on this program. that will happen monday-friday of next week. a minute or so before the house will come in. , the republicans with self-inflicted wounds. here is a story from the washington times, duncan hunter, ,hris collins in new york duncan hunter out of california same day may be poised to win their reelection. talk us through those races. >> being indicted does not prevent you from winning a reelection campaign. yes, there are a number of

republicans with self-inflicted wounds and these are the most obvious, duncan hunter and chris collins the first republican members of the congress to endorse donald trump for president and now they are both running for reelection under indictment and chris collins got out of the race at one point and got back in later when it was clear the republicans could not get his name off the ballot. these are very republican districts. have sought tos neutralize their own problems by talking about how democrats are flawed. in san diego, duncan hunter is airing an ad that many people in his own party consider out of bounds, trying to portray the democrats who had a grandfather who was the mastermind of the munich bombing in the 1970's, who died 16 years before the candidate was born, trying to portray him as if it was coming

from a family of terrorists. in buffalo, collins is talking about a democrat opponent you 70 mail account for political purposes to link into hillary clinton. host: we will talk more about the house after we take you live to be four of the house for a brief pro forma session here in -- pro forma session here

host: david wasserman of the cook political report with us until 10:00 talking about the house battlefield and the election two weeks away.

taking your calls. chuck in colorado, a republican. caller: thank you for c-span. i wanted to say how refreshing it was or has been that president trump caps off it to discuss --has saw fit to discuss treaties with the american people and where he thinks we should be. we are on the dialogue and it is up forand discussion and we are thinking about it. outing up on it and finding what is to gain. as one of the american people, i appreciate being informed rather than everything being done in secret behind closed doors. host: david wasserman, colorado has some battleground districts.

guest: the caller is from the sixth congressional district, aurora, colorado, one of the most honorable republican seats -- vulnerable republican seats, the district voted for hillary clinton by nine points and he needs anti-trump boaters to win the election -- voters to win the election and he is struggling against a forming armor ranger. a battle between veterans. he has not had to run against a veteran. he has run against state legislatures in the past. kaufman had extensive outreach to growing immigrant communities in his district. he has hosted fundraisers with the ethiopian community and learn to speak spanish. in 2016,n his ads that he disliked both clinton and

trump. jason crow is ahead by a handful. host: political triage, when it comes to ad spending by the party committees, can you talk through that and how to follow the money to understand when the committees and the national parties think these races are going? guest: party committees have to make tough decisions because some races will fall off their map and some races will be latebreaking. colorado 6 is an example of a place the republican congressional committee has stopped spending because they do not see it as a good investment to try to prevent democrats from gaining 23 seats. they see their firewall more aligned with other districts. this districts being added -- district being added to the triage list. host: cap to hear from -- tough

to hear if you are the incumbent. guest: some republican incumbents look likely to go down to defeat but still getting help from republicans, including barbara comstock in northern virginia who probably does not have much of a way to reelection but is still receiving some help from personal loyalty of republicans to her. we are seeing several republicans who are trailing over the summer, maybe getting back a little bit and are intriguing republicans who think maybe we should spend. iowa,m in iowa -- illinois races. , independent, illinois. ticket i voted a split in illinois. i really do not like either representative, one is too far

left and the other is too far right. entitlements. our i wish we could get rid of the wars. we need better education for people around 40 years old. host: who is your congressmen in chatsworth? sarah, running for the 16th district. this is a longshot race for democrats and we expect -- guest: this is a longshot race for democrats and we expect incumbent republican to win. two districts in suburban chicago in trouble for republicans, peter roskam, who used to hold a leadership position in the house republican

currently, is behind against the democrats in the sixth district. 14th district, a republican is in a close race against a democratic former hhs official and nurse. he probably has a very narrow lead over her. downstate illinois republicans are doing well and rodney davis has maintained a lead in the 13th district, which extends from springfield metro come east st. louis to champagne-or vanna -- or vanna. 12th district incumbent has opened up a lead against a highly prized recruit in the democrats, prosecutor named brendan kelly. the reason for that may be steel tariffs which are brought 800 steel jobs back to a city in illinois. another case where the suburbs

and rural, small-town areas diverge. host: georgia, john in woodstock, georgia, democrat. caller: we have heard a lot about challengers with very strong fundraising, very viral videos, but in more conservative districts, any with weaker fundraising and less conservative districts -- in less conservative districts? orst: also about republicans paradis because there are a number of republicans who are not raising the kind of cash necessary to define themselves against these democratic challengers. we moved one race in texas this morning outside of houston from likely republican to win republican in part because the incumbent pete olson who has not had a tough race in a long time only raised about $300,000 in the last quarter and does not have much money left for ads. in the severance of atlanta --

suburbs of atlanta, the incumbent does not have as much money as his republican colleagues and was outraged by the democrat in that race -- out raised by the democrat in that race. republicans got to draw the lines in the last redistricting. georgia, --unty, when that county, georgia, they voted for mitt romney and john mccain but for hillary clinton. we are talking house races but georgia governor debate is taking place tonight, we will erin at 9:00 p.m. on c-span, c-span.org, listen to it on the free c-span radio app and not :00 tonight -- 9:00 tonight. ohio, good morning. caller: a couple of things.

i think the democrats should run tariffs, airbus and china will probably sign a contract, probably this week or next week, worth $16 billion. side said going to the since the tariffs -- boeing to the side since the tariffs and all the european car companies are in the process of talking to china about car sales in china. basically so that they do not deficit from our tariffs that donald trump is saying we 5%. -- 25%. democrat should also bring of health care. bloomberg news, definitely a

business news organization, 200 and the united states ranks second amount -- among the amount of money spent on health care, lower quarter in the efficiency of health care. that is ridiculous. when it comes to my district 14 of the ohio senate -- i should say, representative to congress, becauseing for betty the republican has not had one town hall. since he was elected. that shows me that he is more in the pocket of the plutocracy of this country instead of we the people. thank you very much, have a great day. guest: one of the classic signs of a wave is when you have an incumbent who votes against their party but does not get

credit from the other side for it. dave joyce, the republican thembent, voted against republican repeal and replace bill last year on health care. but is only slightly ahead of the democrat. because of the way the district is drawn, dave joyce will hang on i think but he is one of the republicans in the 112 seats where democrats raise more money than the republican in the last fundraising quarter, 92 republican incumbents and inludes 43 republicans districts we rate as likely or solid republican, which goes to show the desperation of democratic donors to send a message, even in districts not that competitive. host: when have you seen incumbents outraised like that? guest: never, a staggering

development and fundraising and also the case that there are diminishing returns. we are in a polarized time where partisans are dug in. much more about activating your own base than persuading persuadable voters. that money only goes so far. host: bonnie, democrat, new york city. caller: you were talking about republicans with self-inflicted wounds. and supposedlye has not been in his district in ohio is jim jordan, any chance of him losing or is he just as solidly in that gerrymandered district? guest: he was one of the 112 who got out raised but because of the way the district is drawn, i do not think the democrat has much of a chance. sherrod brown, a democrat, is doing pretty well in the senate

race and winning a lot of rural ohio at the moment. a big turnaround from 2016. the specter of nancy pelosi as speaker in districts such as republicansl keep with wounds and office. with -- 15nutes left minutes left with david wasserman. republicans call 202-748-8001. democrats, 202-748-8000. independents, 202-748-8002. michigan, roger, independent. caller: good morning. we have in michigan a proposal to take the redistricting away from the politicians. i believe it is proposal two or three. i am very curious to know -- to have mr. wasserman's opinion on that and are you related to

debbie wasserman schultz? maybe i am not seeing the name correctly but i'm curious. guest: i am not. the caller raises an interesting prospect for 2021, because a lot of these races are going to shape the way the map is drawn, particularly governors races at stake in 2018, 35. i am skeptical we will have reform succeed at greeting more independent commissions for redistricting and 2 -- in 2021. has not comeourt up with a solution to combat partisan gerrymandering. we could see, if democrats when they love the governors races, and they are on track to do so -- when a lot of these governors races, they are on track to do so, it looks like they're the favorite. have aey could do is

veto power over republican dominated state legislatures and push more of the map drawing process to the court's. it is awkward for the courts to draw maps that when there's a stalemate between the governor and state legislature, it happens frequently. that could produce maps that are less friendly to republicans and give democrats some opportunities in the next decade. host: if you're interesting in following redistricting news, redistric.er is @ redistrict. this is the race to replace paul ryan. gamelitics can be a rough but when things are on the line, we cannot afford to dropped the ball on issues that matter, i am brian style and my wisconsin style solution is going long for

education and technical training so the next generation of workers in our communities can win again. at the end of the day, we are all on team wisconsin. host: children with mustaches? guest: unconventional to say the least. we have seen a bunch of unconventional advertisement but it is working for bryan steil. announced hen would leave, it was no longer david versus goliath for democrats. mediaalso known on social as iron stash. for uwthe republican ad is an interesting theme. leane looking at that as a

republican race as steil has an advantage because every voter knows that the democrat has been arrested nine times. not every democrat brings an impeccable resume to the table. host: wheeling, west virginia, mike, democrat. caller: i just have a quick question. i am 72 and retired and lives in the tri-state area in wheeling. across the river is ohio and four miles to the east is pennsylvania. i watch tv and read the newspaper. none of the democratic house of representatives or even the senator, why aren't the democrats talking about mitch mcconnell's issue, when he came on tv and said he would go after health care and social security. i have not hardly heard anything

about that in this area. host: good question, mike. guest: a lot of democratic strategist would agree with you. they fault democrats and a lot of the senate and house races for not talking about mitch mcconnell's comments more. inch, wethey give an need to take it for a mile. yet, we have not heard mitch mcconnell's comments, been ads -- come up in ads. ask whyi was calling to there is no discussion on reinstating the 35% corporate tax and make it retroactive to bank.to get money in the corporations have not pay taxes since 2006. it is affecting our ability to

start work on the infrastructure because they are not putting up any money. it is time to get congress to work and reinstate it and make it retroactive to 01-16. host: taxes and infrastructure? guest: democrats having some success running against the tax bill from republicans and working classic -- class districts they are calling it a giveaway for the wealthy and for more upscale districts, they call it a tax increase on middle-class families because of the changes to the state and local property tax deductions. in pennsylvania, democrats have numerous opportunities to flip republican seats and the college district, six district, that is a seat democrats are likely to pick up without a fight as republicans are not competing to hold onto the open seat. there are two other republican

seats democrats will likely pick up with much of a fight, fifth, 17th district were conor lamb is the favorite. the biggest fight in pennsylvania is going to be the first district, brian fitzpatrick, the republican, against scott wallace, a democrat. that race has been extremely expensive. and very close. theme in pennsylvania, democrats likely to add more women to their ranks in pennsylvania, right now no women represent pennsylvania. 2018 could be the first year in history that americans elect more than 100 women to the house of representatives driven entirely by democrats. host: jerry in north carolina,, inocrat good morning --

north carolina, democrat good morning. caller: i have been gerrymandered into george holding's district and when they , they not read out, which -- renee i thought was a good thing. where does george holding stand because he does nothing? my wife and i early voted next week, the second day of early --ing, and i cannot remember we voted for the democrat against holding, linda, i can't remember, i am getting old, but where does george holding -- i have seen tv ads for holding. linda, i cannot remember her

name, does holding have a good chance to win again? funny, ands problematic for the democrat candidate because linda coleman, the state representative running against george holding, does not have a lot of name id and not a democrat who has raised a lot of money this cycle. race andbeen a sleeper nobody was paying attention to it until two months ago. she has only raced a couple hundred thousand dollars and it is an expensive media market in raleigh. a large component of the second wadeict in wake county, -- county, suburban, professional, i would call 2018 the year of the fired up female college graduate, and a lot of female college graduates who are upset with president trump in wade county, north carolina, and the

dangerous place for republicans in north carolina is there is not a competitive statewide balance -- the lack of a statewide race means that republicans may not have as much of a recent to turn out. areas -- rural areas stay home, george holding could have a problem on election night but i still think he is favored. host: the caller said he voted early, we talked about early voting today, michael mcdonald of the university of florida, he said this could be an historic year when it comes to the midterm election turnout, is that your reading of the early voting numbers? guest: absolutely, early voting numbers go up every year. michael mcdonald updating this very well. enthusiastic so about voting this year that they

are likely can allies -- cannibalizing a lot of the election day voting like in 2016 when the first votes came in were early votes like in florida and the democrats ran up the score but republicans did well with election day voters. i would not put too much into the early voting figures. we are in this two weeks where everyone gets fired up but most of those figures do not mean much. host: a couple of minutes before our program ends. in springfield, tennessee, republican, good morning. caller: i want to ask about pennsylvania, conor lamb won the 18th district. recapture -- as

district from pennsylvania? can you go through a list of pennsylvania seats vulnerable? guest: it is a victim of using an pennsylvania dutch it is a bit confusing in pennsylvania because of is confusing in pennsylvania because of the new new lines drawn. conor lamb is likely to win the 17th district. in part because the district was drawn in a much more favorable to democrats than the existing district. conor lamb is leaving behind the 14th district, the most of which he currently represents and that will likely be picked up by republican. in pennsylvania, we could have a wash. so that the suburbs are a big problem for -- philadelphia suburbs are a big problem for republicans because the

democrats will pick up three seats. delaware county, six district in chester county, where the democrats hold advantage, seventh district in the lehigh is -- has left and a democrat is the favorite over a former olympic cycling gold medalist in the allentown district. the closest fight is the first district in bucks county. democrats have two additional opportunities in harrisburg district, 10th district, where the republican faces a democrat george scott. that is leading republican and mike kelly, republican company in uri, pennsylvania, -- erie, leaningania, that race, republican. host: in a few minutes, we will go to washington, d.c., a

discussion today on the implications on the murder of saudi arabia and journalist and washington post columnist jamal khashoggi. we have time for one or two more calls. eric in melbourne, new jersey, democrat. caller: my question is, democrats -- any dark horse the democratsk can flip on election day that no one is paying attention to? guest: that is a terrific question and the places i would look for upsets are the places where democrats are winning statewide races by a lot more there are not competitive statewide races at all. those are the kinds of places we saw big upset for republicans in 2010 and 2014, districts where there was nothing driving

turnout or democrats were on the top of the ticket. the political environment is bad for republicans right now. democrat isre the leading the republic -- the race by double digits. kansas, where sam brownback's legacy is dragging down republican chances. we think kevin yoder is the underdog there. virginia, virginia is a place where tim kaine is cruising to reelection. the republican nominee is not competitive statewide. arbor comstock -- barbara comstock is the underdog. the two bellwether races are the second district in virginia beach and the seventh district, which is outside of richmond who

faces abigail stan berger. guest: marie's is waiting in is waiting inrice georgia. caller: you mentioned that there was a possible diminishing return in investments. we know that there are more democrats than republicans across the board, and they are not the ones trying to impose voter suppression methods. 2021, whenatch for there is a democratic president and democrats have control of the senate and the house. they will add seats to the supreme court and start hearing these measures that have led to gerrymandering and voter suppression methods that have been imposed. there are a lot of complex issues that the caller raised. fundamentally, the democrat long-term outlook in the senate

is pretty poor considering that donald trump carried 60 of the 100 senate seats despite losing the popular vote. with thesure i agree caller on the likelihood of court packing in the next couple of years. a very thorny issue in georgia related to the state's knew exact match voter law. that has created a lot of problems and a back log of who brian camp -- kemp has not yet validated or put on the rolls. that has got democrats up in arms for good reasons. , alwaysvid wasserman appreciate your time. that is going to do it for this morning on the washington journal. we will be here tomorrow morning at 7:00 a.m. eastern.

we take you live to the arab center, holding a discussion on the implications of jamal khashoggi. onwell as the implications press freedom and the impact on u.s.-saudi relations. that is underway. [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2017] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] on manylt with him occasions here and in washington when he visited the states. and in the kingdom of saudi arabia during my frequent visits into riyadh and other places in the kingdom. gentleman, aays a keen analyst on middle east and islamic affairs, articulate early interested in u.s.-saudi bilateral relations, which we discussed almost every time we met. and, equally important, if not more important, a consistent