you can go to c-span.org to see other british affairs programs. campaignssident trump for republican candidates out a rally in fort wayne, indiana. live coverage at 6:05 p.m. on c-span. he stumps for former house candidates and mike braun running against joe donnelly. there is a close race. then it moves on to missouri. there is a slim lead from one to the other. you can watch both rallies on c-span.org or listen on the free c-span radio app. your primary source for campaign 2018. announcer 2: c-span cities tour is exploring the american story. lawrencerecent stop in , kansas we asked voters in the state's second district which

issue is most important to you for this november midterm election. >> i believe not enough people in my generation are voting, so the concerns that are coming up in 10 or 30 years, that will not mycern the baby boomers, so generation should take initiative because the future is ours. politicianst in that will adhere to our needs. >> the issue that concerns me the most is our lack of addressing medicare and social security insolvency. i have not heard one person to about how they are going to fix that or what their plan is. olders an issue many americans are concerned about. no one says anything. >> the issues that concern me most are environmental protection and informed electorate. we have a lot of people in my

generation, my peers, that have basically based a lot of their opinions on soundbites instead of research and reflection. >> the most of port an issue in the midterm election is making vote.eople are able to i know in the state of alabama it is hard for people of color to get to their voting places because they are not allowed to .ring their public housing id they have to have a drivers license. is 50e nearest place miles away, and how are you supposed to drive? it is important to me we can get access to people of color to vote. tourncer 2: c-span cities travels to profile american cities are join us the first and third weekends of each month as we explore the american story. is nathan us

gonzales, editor and publisher of inside elections. with some ofuickly the most competitive races in the country beginning in missouri where the president campaigned for josh holly as he challenges claire mccaskill. >> we moved from our category to tossup tilting republican. we try not to throw every single one because a single majority shows josh holly has a narrow advantage. there are some that have claire them even, but with an incumbent being even in a state where trump did well i think is problematic for the senators. that would, claire mccaskill should be considered an underdog and if she loses, that increases pressure for democrats to win in tennessee and texas. south florida. , bill nelson being challenged by rick scott. guest: the majority of the polling shows that senator

nelson is slightly ahead of governor scott. we moved it to our tilting democratic category. and i think that the bottom line for democrats, every seat is important for them to win, but republicans are confident that rick scott's job improvement has increased since the hurricanes. they think he >> is in position to win. former president obama, joe biden, mike pence, all out. they are all spending time in nevada. dean heller is being challenged by jacky rosen. >> i think it is another very close race. democrats are confident if they can go into election day tied, that their turnout their turnout , operation can be the difference of a point or two. but jacky rosen the congresswoman is up slightly in the majority of the polls. dean heller is the only republican running in a hillary clinton state, he is in the game and at least within striking distance. host: indiana, joe donnelly being challenged by republican mike braun.

guest: this is the only pure tossup seats we have on our competitor list. it looks like bruan has some momentum in the coming days, but it is close. there is a libertarian candidate who is receiving anywhere between 6% and 10%. that could end up being the difference. i want to be careful. not every libertarian voter is also a republican voter, but if she is getting 10%, that can be problematic for braun. host: president obama is heading to gary, indiana. what kind of impact does he have among indiana voters? guest: if you look at the president's schedule, he's going to places where he has usually done well. i think if republicans can get -- if the president can convince his supporters to support republican candidates in an election where he is not on the ballot, that can make a big difference particularly in the senate. the house is a different story. to are not seeing him go house districts as much as the senate race. >> i want to share this with

you. this is from the new york times. it points out there are 410 women, people of color, lgbtq candidates running for the house, senate and governors' seats. what does this tell you? guest: there are record numbers of women who ran for congress, record number of women who were nominated in the house. sometimes i don't know if that is because particularly because on the democratic side they are on offense and have fewer incumbents, but if this was because primary voters were looking specifically to nominate women or it was because there were just so many more women running and running credible campaigns, fundraising and putting themselves in position to run. when you increase the pool or the bench, you are going to get more nominees. women are going to make a difference whether it is women voters or candidates, they are part of the conversation this election. host: i want to ask you about a raucous town hall meeting with congressman steve king,

republican of iowa. ,where do you have this race? this is from the new york times. the incendiary congress and facing a strong challenge. guest: we have it as likely republican. i mean, this is a republican district. the question is rather steve king will lose. he does have a credible challenger in jd sholten. we actually moved the race onto the competitive race after meeting with him. he is a guy who was trying to make it in the major leagues, trying to make professional baseball as a pitcher ended up , moving in a different direction that he is running a real campaign. steve king, i'm not sure if he has been running a campaign much at all. and i think that should be concerning in an environment that is in a precarious -- people are in a precarious political situation. host: one of the biggest -- handicappers of the race nathan gonzales will , join us tuesday evening. we are glad to have him on this sunday and we are glad to hear from you. our phone lines are open as we talk about some of the key house

and senate races. you can also send us a tweet at @cspanwj, or join the conversation on facebook.com/c-span. as you watch the returns for the evening you will be looking for , what? >> i am going to be looking in terms of specific states and how many seats democrats will win in terms of seats. for example let's look at virginia. democrats have four takeover opportunities in virginia. i think they need to get at least one. if they are not beating barbara comstock in the 10th district, i think it is going to be a long night or maybe a district by district title. if they can win in the second district where republican congressman scott taylor is running, the seventh district where dave brat is running for reelection against abigail in , the fifth district with another open seat. i think if they get two to four seats out of virginia, that will be a good sign. new jersey is another example early in the night. democrats will get at least two seats, but if they can defeat mcarthur and lance, that will

set them up while across the rest of the map. host: i want to look at the dave brat race in a moment. but also redistricting in pennsylvania. what impact is that having on races in that state? guest: it took a handful of good opportunities for democrats and a handful of great opportunities. democrats will get at least four one of the battlegrounds or races to watch is the first district where brian fitzpatrick is running against scott wallace. the polls have been neck and neck. this is a suburban area where democrats have been doing well elsewhere. over in western pennsylvania, mike kelly in the erie area. those are races that have been second or third tier opportunities and democrats are winning those. this is probably a big night. host: give our audience the background on dave brat. and how he came to congress.

guest: maybe the biggest upset in history. he defeated eric cantor in the republican primary. he is aligned with the more conservative members of the republican caucus on the hill. he is running against abigail spamberger. former cia operative who i would regard as when the democrats top recruits anywhere in the country. she had to win against an airline pilot named dan ward. this is a neck and neck race. it could come down to undecided voters. do they want to vote for the congressman again or are they ready to make a change? host: and extensive media market in d.c. >> abigail spamberger brags letter securities france, so what is law enforcement support dave brat? she supports open borders.

she defended the violent gang ms 13, and supports sanctuary cities. and pro-amnesty radicals are pouring millions into her campaign. the truth, abigail spamberger can't be trusted. >> i am dave brat and i approve this message. host: is the caravan a big issue? guest: i think republicans would rather talk about immigration, national security, borders. if you like that is an issue. -- they feel like that is an issue. the white house feels like that is an issue that could get republican voters to the polls at a time when they might not be inspired to vote for something else. rather than health care. democrats want to talk about health care. if it makes a difference on republican turnout, it can make a difference in a few key races. host: we have been hearing about competitive races in new york. new york 22. guest: claudia tenney. i should know this five hours

before the election. this is a district that president trump did well. president trump is still fairly popular but she has underperformed routinely. she probably would have defeated the former congressman richard hanna if he had run again. anthony brandici, he is a good candidate. i think they are probably running even in the mid 40's, which is not great for an incumbent to be. democrats are confident in their candidate. host: you have been watching all the debates. this is from new york 22. >> that is the choice for congress. claudia tenney is standing with president trump. securing the border, strengthen ice, and deport illegal aliens. anthony brandici voted with

cuoma. trump-tenney, or loc-brendisi. -- pelosi-brendisi. the choice is easy. >> that was in her and. you also saw the pelosi argument. she is someone republicans are trying to use as a rallying point. for eight years republicans would use president obama and that got the base excited. that message does not relate resonate quite as well anymore. they may not be in love with a member of congress or republicans in congress and what they've been doing, but they are trying to get republicans out

based on nancy pelosi being in charge. host: you can listen on c-span radio and sirius xm channel 124. gina, decatur, alabama. republican line. caller: good morning steve and nathan. i am so excited about this midterm. we have a strong woman running for governor, kay ivey. she gave $10 million grant to the college over here. she has brought jobs. aviation, mercedes benz. they are all son, pressured to go to college. he said he wants to go into the military. they came into the schools. all these kids are so excited. that teenagers have been able to get jobs now and they are so excited about being recruited for these new manufacturing plants.

he says, mom, you know what? i have got options. i don't have to go to college and i don't have to go into the military. would it be ok if i went straight to work? i said son, whatever you want to do. but our older people are getting these jobs in these plants, which is freeing up plenty of jobs to the teenagers. i think she has been a blessing to alabama and i think she is going to win. north alabama is booming. host: one of the questions we asked was if this midterm is a referendum on donald trump? guest: apps -- caller: absolutely not here in alabama. this is a referendum on jobs, low taxes and opportunity. host: is it a referendum on the president? guest: i think the answer is a little mixed. president trump is fuel and energy behind the democratic party right now.

he is unifying them and that is why we are seeing road tests and fundraising and we will see increased democratic turnout. in terms of the ads and messaging for the democratic party, it is usually about health care. we met with over 100 congressional candidates. if someone brought a president trump, it was me. democrats want to talk about health care, pre-existing conditions, premiums and holding republicans accountable in this congress. host: annie from san rafael, california. caller: good morning. it is pretty early out here. i want to ask mr. gonzales, or just make a comment. my young housemate, these about 35, he says he will not vote because he knows gavin newsom is going to win the governorship.

we get a lot of that out here. the election results come in and we are like it's already been decided. i wonder if you had a comment about california voters and how we can drive out here. host: a number of competitive house races in southern california. guest: if your housemate is also a republican, that is one of the concerns the republicans have about down ballot races. there are at least nine competitive races in california. if republicans don't feel a sense of urgency, that gavin newsom is going to win, or the senate race for the is not a republican at all, republicans are at risk of losing a handful of morehouse seats. -- more house seats. the lawrence area, north of l.a. in the 25th district, northern california in the 10th.

there are multiple competitive races. if republicans don't turn out to vote or don't vote for the house races, the majority could be decided on the west coast. if you live on the west coast and you feel like your vote does not matter, it absolutely could. host: $38 million raised by beto o'rourke in the last quarter. he raised $70 million in this race. guest: it shattered the quarterly senate record. i believe it was rick lazio against hillary clinton for senate back in the day. more than jeb bush race for his entire presidential campaign. he has created a movement. he tapped into a couple of things. he tapped into anti-president trump sentiment around the country, but he gets to run against senator cruz. democrats all over the country will give him money. but we will see in a couple of days is whether texas is a problem for democrats were money can't fix it.

whether the partisanship of taxes is so strong that even though -- texas is so strong that even though you have tens of millions of dollars. host: this is from october 15 with senator cruz and congressman o'rourke. [video] >> it was striking at this press conference about civility. congressman o'rourke repeated his call for impeaching president trump. that is the very essence of not civility. if we had impeachment next year, we would see utter chaos. the ends to job killing regulations that is feeling economic growth. we would see an end to rebuilding the military. washington with the consent bipartisan investigations. host: nathan gonzales, to these debates move the needle in any way? guest: i'm trying to figure if

there is a debate that is happened so far that is in a game changing moment. the indiana senate race with richard murdoch, the todd akin moment was not in the debate. it was in an interview. michelle lujan grisham in new mexico with heather wilson, she won because of a debate. there are potential pitfalls but am not sure we've had a game changing moment. i always go back to the close race, everything matters. ads, debates, anything can move the needle. i'm not sure we've had a defining moment yet. host: this is from the washington post. i have often wondered if people vote for the candidates. guest: it is a national poll. one thing we should've learned

from 2016 is we don't have national elections in this country. we don't have them for president. we don't have them for congress. they can tell us about the mood of the country but i'm more interested in the generic ballots in the house districts in states that have the senate race. the generic ballot in almost all of those is closer to what it is nationally. be aware that is not the battleground. the battleground is fought on much more republican territory. host: sean from baltimore. caller: good morning. my question is how can these polls be trusted? that they can't be trusted, with the you think the polls are accurate because, for example, i was watching a show -- i think it was -- i can't remember the channel.

they were saying in montana, jon tester is ahead. however there has not been a lot of research done in montana. they were not talking to people out there. it shows he is ahead but they made it seem like you can't trust the polls. for example, there is another pullout, i think larry elder said 4% of black people support trump. i'm just thinking can i really trust that? larry elder is a donald trump supporter so he will be very biased in his research. i know i'm black and my family and i have not been asked about trump. my question is, can the polls really be trusted this time around looking at 2016?

host: thank you for the question. guest: we could spend four hours talking about that great question. i would be skeptical of any poll that showed 40% of african-american voters supporting any republican candidate. one thing about 2016 is some of the polling was pretty good. the national polling cap hillary clinton winning by 3% or 4%. she won by about 2.5%, the popular vote, but that is not how we vote for president in this country. i think that was part of the question. if we had more, better polling by quality outlets in the upper midwest, michigan, wisconsin, minnesota, we would've realized there were more tossup states. what we do at inside elections is look at as much polling as possible. public, private, partisan, nonpartisan, trying to identify the trends and outliers. it is an imperfect measure.

polling is that a crisis with low response rates and other mythological -- methodological issues. we have measures that are even worse than the polling we should view skeptically. we can tell you what is most likely to happen based on the data, but there is still a possibility for the other outcome. host: you can follow nathan gonzales at insideelections.com. what is trump flying around to getting rallies costing taxpayers? guest: if you go to some local news outlets, you will see the cost of the security or the police. in this is sort of the president in his element. i don't think the president likes to sit in the oval office signing papers or in briefings. he was to be among the people.

i think that is where republicans are trying to get him to focus on places where he can be the most help. host: beto o'rourke will become the junior senator from texas. even republicans are thinking how did cruz ever win in the first place. huge rallies for beto o'rourke and a lot of money from outside of the state of texas. guest: the money still spends the same, even if it comes from outside the state. republicans can try to make it an issue. i think that is more of the right tactic for senator cruz in terms of trying to make it about a bigger issue or about the president. if texas ends up being a

popularity contest between congressman o'rourke and senator cruz, i don't think that is the position senator cruz wants to be in. if he can make it about the supreme court and president trump, that is where texas would still vote for the senator. host: in 2010, the democrats lost the house of representatives. in 2018, republicans are saying we will make sure pre-existing conditions are protected. what is going on out there? guest: when we hear republicans talk about health care it is when they are on the defense. that is a defense of mechanism. they believe -- that is a defensive mechanism. it's funny that they been ready to get democrats to defend obamacare, but democrats initially voted for it and stopped talking about it and ran away from it. now democrats feel good because of the comparison to what republicans have done. republicans are trying to fight back forcefully. they have seen the hits on health care are effective. host: that is how it is playing out in nevada.

this is from a super pac taking aim at dean heller. [video] >> there is a pattern to dean heller's broken promises. he caved to donald trump and voted to end protections for pre-existing conditions. after a promise to protect he caved to party bosses and voted to cut medicare by nearly $500 billion. now this bosses are planning even deeper medicaid cuts. the only thing we can trust dean heller to do this but his party before your health care. smp is responsible for the content of this ad. guest: i think that is a pretty typical ad for this cycle. dean heller responded by jacky rosen has been in office for almost two years and what is she done to fix the health care system? trying to pin health care on the polarizing piece of legislation the democrats passed, even

though she was not in office. ultimately i think democrats will believe this ad we just watched. republicans will believe obamacare is part of the problem. it matters about who was in the middle and who they trust going forward. host: is it safe to say florida and georgia governors races are the real tossups? guest: we have the mayor of tallahassee as the slight favorite in our tilting democratic category. it is close. in georgia, we have brian kemp as the favorite. georgia i think is a republican lean to it. they will be close races. host: are next caller is from florida. jason from sun city center. caller: good morning. i was wondering what your take is on the schapiro-d can raise -- shapiro-buchanan race.

guest: it is not one we have been focusing on. we have not heard a lot of buzz from republicans being worried or democrats feeling like it is an opportunity. the shapiro-buchanan race has been on our radar screen as a competitive race. democrats are very excited about making a case against congressman buchanan because of his purchase of a boat around the time the tax bill passed. we have not heard as much about it or as much about the democrat schapiro in the last few weeks. i still regard it as competitive. if congressman buchanan is losing, is a big night for democrats. i just don't think it is the most likely situation. host: 27th district, the former

health and human services secretary and former president of the university of miami challenged by maria salazar. guest: i think democrats thought this was going to be an easy race. i think she made this district look more republican than it is. as it was a hillary clinton a district. as republicans are excited about having a hispanic candidate in a hispanic majority district against a non-hispanic candidate. they had had to spend money they had this -- they would have spent elsewhere on it. host: daniel in illinois, republican line. caller: first things first, the whole faith on polls. come on, guys. looked how that worked out in the presidential election.

i am a union member in the state of illinois. tides are turning. the union guys are tired of identity politics. tired of turning on tv and having everything blamed on why people consist -- white people consistently. tides are turning. i would not count on union members to be so staunch democrats any longer. i think the democrats need to change their tactics and go back to being a place for the working-class people. not people who want to come here illegally or people who want a place -- host: are you still on the line? i am not here to defend or criticize the polling. the national poll had a pretty spot on in 2016, giving hillary a 3.5% edge in the popular vote. the mistake was clearly in pennsylvania, wisconsin,

michigan and the other battlegrounds. guest: in 2016, our projections were pretty darn close. in the house we thought it would be eight to 13 and they got six. ultimately tuesday we will find out how good are projections are. in terms of illinois, i also -- it is such a large state. there almost two illinois. republican members of congress are in real trouble in the chicago districts. downstate, it is kind of different story. mike boss, is a competitive race but he is a chance of winning. if he is losing or rodney davis is losing, that the big night for democrats. illinois is a blue state, but

once you move south it starts to get more red. some of those blue-collar workers i think will be the key and the downstate races. host: let's head of the california. congressman dana rohrabacher facing a tough challenge. guest: initially in the cycle i was skeptical that orange county had flipped to be democratic. hillary clinton was the first democratic presidential candidate since 1936 to win orange county. i thought that was more specific to donald trump been rather a shift in the county. all those races are still a democratic takeover opportunity. a few weeks ago congress in were crocker -- congressman walker -- it looks like he has improved.

there is not a single bellwether district. if republicans are losing, for if he is losing in california 48, that shows democrats have the majority. they are just looking to add to the margin. host: the california 10th district? guest: up in northern california, josh harter is the democratic candidate. maybe it is the post-kavanaugh or republican vote coming back to bite them. democrats are confident they will win the seat. when we look at the polls, sometimes democrats are polling mars and republicans are polling the mess -- venus. i expect it to be competitive. host: cody, good morning. caller: this is tony. host: good morning.

caller: mr. gonzales, you picked hillary clinton to win the 2016 presidential election. i like to tell other conservatives don't believe any of these polls. go out and vote. c-span, i notice you are not talking about the florida governor's race, andrew gillum and the corruption he is involved in in tallahassee. in the tweets you read, they are all negative towards republicans. you are just like the rest of the mainstream media. you are on the take for the democratic party. guest: tony -- i own up to the presidential race. everyone can still see our ratings online from 2016. i talked about the 2016 race. hillary clinton had a narrow but

distinct advantage. when you look at the tossups, she did not have to win all of them and president trump did. that is for the polling question -- if we had more polling in the upper midwest, it would have been characterized differently. conservatives want to use of help them sleep at night and say everything will be wrong and there will not be a blue wave, there will be a red tsunami, that is fine but our house and senate projections are pretty good that w -- senate projections were pretty good. the midterms are often for the president's party. i think republicans are at risk in more states. you brought up gillam and his legal problems surrounding city hall.

i think that is what he was discounted from the primaries. there was an investigation surrounding city hall. that helps him maybe stay off to the side. we will see if voters care. this comes down to our voters focused on that or sending a message to president trump? host: that issue came up in the debates. the only place you can watch the debates nationally with this network. thank you for the call. they are all on our website at c-span.org. let's turn to pennsylvania. congressman lou barletta challenging bob casey. guest: i think senator casey is a heavy favorite to win. that's an example of how president trump's coalition is not easily transferable to other candidates. trump won pennsylvania by a little bit but it has not transferred or gained much

steam. it is similar to the ohio senate race, sharad brown. president trump did better in ohio than pennsylvania but it has not clicked for republicans or as good as an opportunity as they thought earlier in the cycle. host: you mentioned pennsylvania 16. congress and mik -- congressman mike kelly seeking another term. guest: the district mindset changed -- district lines have changed. mike kelly has not taken it for granted. we has been running a serious reelection effort. we will see of that ultimately changes or matters because he has been given some new portions of this district. butler county was divided and put into other surrounding districts. i think it is a third or fourth tier opportunities for the democrats. host: calvin, good morning. caller: how are you doing?

host: we are great. caller: i have a question for nathan. what are the chances governor tom wolf could win with scott wagner on the ballot? guest: i think governor wolf has the advantage. wagner, i'm not sure the republican party has completely coalesced behind wagner. i expect wolf to win. he had a big spending advantage in his initial election. wagner got attention with a provocative ad, a video where he was trying to sound president trump-esque. i'm not sure it works for someone who is not president trump. host: the list texas 32, congressman sessions' does this district as a tossup.

>> collin alred is a civil rights attorney. he plays for the tennessee titans. a young, charismatic guy. the district includes some north dallas suburbs. this suburban area has traditionally been republican but not favorable to the president. sessions, this is a dramatic difference. he ran on post -- unopposed in 2016. there was a primary in 2018 because so many people wanted to run. the new york times, they are finishing up their final polls. they show it as a close race. host: mia love in the fourth district.

guest: utah was not favorable to president trump. i think part of his values or his persona does not necessarily match up with the community. i'm not sure she can rely on a or boost from president trump compared to other republicans. democrats have a good candidate. the mayor of salt lake county. even though it is utah and regarded as red, it is a suburban district. she has usually underperformed the normal republican performance, but it is a tossup. host: based on your analysis, of the tossup races there are 18 republicans in tossup races. only one democrat. those that tilt democrat, only one is a democratic seat. guest: the whole playing field is significantly republican territory. 79 vulnerable republican seats,

only eight democratic seats. that is reflected in almost every category. i think democrats are already favored to win. we have them as a favorite in 21 seats. republicans will get at least two seats, with a net of 19. democrats need to gain 23 to get the majority. they need to win the ones they are favored in and they can break even in the tossups and come out ahead. host: we welcome our listeners on c-span radio. our guest is nathan gonzales. we are talking midterm elections. getting the handicap of what to look for for the returns, all 435 seats. we will have all the returns beginning at 8:00 eastern time. nathan will be joining us at the top of the program. craig from tulsa on the republican line. caller: first of all i would disagree that anyone could say c-span was biased.

i think you do a good job and i appreciate that. to mr. gonzales concerning the polls, i think there is an element here with the polls that he's to be considered. i had a liberal democrat grandmother with kids. she had whispered to me, well, when trump was running initially, our country does need a businessman. she wanted her kid to have a job. prosperity is an element of helping business growth and hiring more people. she had whispered to me. when they made the calls in the polls, there are nonresponders. she might be one. i think that should be considered in the polls as

potentially -- i think the reason for the whisper is because i think in our society today it is become so divisive that it is dangerous for your job to say how you vote. she was kind of an element of that. that should probably be considered in the polls. you could be registered as anything and vote as you wish. just an analysis. that should be considered. the nonresponders may be people -- there is a lot of fear. since the 1990's there has been a lot of pressure applied for people. i think the republicans -- this is my experience. no one is perfect, but it seems whatever gauntlet you throw down and say i'm not going to say anything, they don't hold you to it. that has been kind of bad. it is kind of a hush-hush thing.

one thing americans hate most is to have duct tape strapped on the mouth. they love their freedom. that is working against whatever party would say we will not say, we will attack you in any way we can and win anyway we can. that really upsets americans. the nonresponders, they may be trump voters but for the element of prosperity. there are things, rough ways that he talks that put him more like teddy roosevelt. on the other hand, he gets things done like eisenhower. i wonder if america is saying, look, we want our children to have jobs in the future. we can overlook this or that. some of the charges, i would like to see proof. all i hear are charges against this or that politician. often times it is a charge and where is the proof?

our country does need to return to due process. host: thank you for the call. we will get a response from nathan gonzales. guest: i think there was some undercounting or underestimating of the president's's support in 2016. -- president's support in 2016. how many people are going to feel like that when the president is not on the ballot? in some places around the country it was not socially acceptable to say you were supporting now president trump. does that dynamic still exist with republican candidates we are seeing in the senate and the house? for the question on low response rates, that's a real problem for pollsters. how polling is supposed to work

is pollsters are not going to ask everyone their opinion, but they will have a selective sample of people. if the people responding, if they are not like your neighbor or the brother who lives down the street with her cousin -- or their cousin, it is not representative of the people in their community and that is potentially problematic. i think it is still a decent way

to look at things. host: north dakota. president trump won it by double digits. i want to ask you about the native american vote and some of the controversies involving what they need to show to cast a ballot. guest: heidi heitkamp is a fighter and democrats love having her. she has a competitive race where she is the underdog. democrats believe the efforts to make it more difficult for native americans to vote is both a problem and could make a difference in the race. i think it is an example of why it is important for voters -- why you see secretaries of state, people administering elections deciding some of these. we are seeing some stuff in georgia were democrats are upset about brian -- about what brian kemp is doing with the voter rolls. who administers the election has an impact on how easy it is a vote. host: president trump winning north dakota by 37%. how difficult is it for a democrat to overturn that? guest: heidi heitkamp will be better than any democrat could in north dakota, but she is in a pretty big partisan hole. i believe kevin cramer is the favorite in this race. we should not count out heidi heitkamp clearly. host: joe in south carolina, good morning. caller: good morning. just to follow on a couple of

comments. i am a conservative independent. i have been watching c-span and washington journal for too many years to count, but i can tell you it maintains a position of neutrality. with regards to due process, the poorly engineered assault on brett kavanaugh energized republicans to vote when otherwise they may have set home. i would like to get to the race in the first congressional district. mark sanford is our representative right now. he was a vocal critic of trump. kenny arrington beat him in the

primary. joe cunningham is a nice guy. the beach town mayors are supporting him because of his stance against offshore drilling. i talked to other people and they say i like joe, but if i vote for a democrat, it will be support of the most polarizing figure and that is nancy pelosi. it will create a problem for democrats. i would like to get your take on joe and katie and the first congressional district. a lot of times down here it is just taken for granted that everything is going red. i am not so sure this time. guest: joe, it is a lower tier opportunity for democrats. they are talking about putting money in. katie errington not only defeated a congressman in the primary but had a car accident and was off the campaign trail for a while. she is back now. if they count the votes quickly early in the night and cunningham wins, he will be a big night for democrats.

i think she is probably ahead in the mid-single digits but cunningham is within striking districts. this is a real race and one where anyone in the district, their vocal matter. errington beat him. we only had a few members of congress at last primaries and it was one of them. host: claire mccaskill against josh holly. a democratic super pac taking aim at the republican nominee. [video] >> josh holly started out at a lobbying firm that represents insurance companies. now holly is running for senate backed by $18 million in secret, dark money. recently taking an out-of-state trip on an airplane owned by a lobbyist for dark money interests. newspapers report mismanagement and chaos and the attorney general's office with hawley

failing to show up for work. he is really not for you. host: first, your analysis of that ad. guest: democrats want to --if missouri is a partisan race, claire mccaskill is not going to win. democrats want to talk about josh hawley and try to discredit him as an alternative if voters don't like their democratic senator. they believe their closing arguments are strong. i still think she is playing from behind a little bit. host: if you watched this network, there have been a lot of these ads. who is behind this?

guest: different groups. the candidate adds, the committee ads and outside group ads. my colleagues talked about the narrators. these people are in all of these ads, by getting them to talk about their own voice is a little difficult. i encourage you at rollcall.com to check out the story. host: anna from de soto, texas. caller: good morning. i just love c-span. beto has energized not just texas, but the nation. he is so positive. ted cruz and sessions will take money from the kindergarten if they give it to them. cruz has never done anything. beto has made him get out and work for his job. alred has made sessions get out and work for their jobs.

if anybody thinks cruz and sessions will do anything for you, you are -- the only thing they will do is make you sicker than you already are. host: thank you for the call. donald trump one texas by 9%. guest: similar to ohio. i wrote a story for rollcall about beto and his fundraising. some democrats for saying why isn't that money going elsewhere to other democratic candidates? i don't see it as a zero-sum game. there were people inspired by the congressman o'rourke and what he's doing and the campaign he is running. the problem is they want to give them what they were not necessarily get the democrats

around the country -- give to democrats around the country. he might run for president. if not, he has built a significant list of fundraisers from around the country. he will at least be a player in the 2020 presidential race because candidates will want to tap into the energy he has created. host: prediction time. who is the first candidate to announce for president? guest: i think castro already had an announcement. host: after the election. guest: they could be one of dozens. the votes will not even be counted. we may not even know who is in the majority yet before the presidential race officially begins. i would be picking from many senators and governors. there will be a host of candidates. host: road to the white house 2020. guest: get the bus ready now. host: it is ready to go. jon tester in a tough reelection battle. guest: i think he has a narrow advantage. there is a difference of opinions about the margins.

republicans believe rosen dale is right there. tester maintains he's the more popular candidate. it is a state that went for the president. if montana -- if tester is defeated, republicans are picking up probably a handful of senate seats. latest developments is] rich dropped out of the race -- development is rick breckenridge dropped out of the race. host: curtis from campbell, missouri. caller: good morning. one of the things i'm worried about is democrats are always going after the second amendment. i need the second amendment because basically i have to defend my household.

i had a man that actually shot me with a muzzleloader. if i do not have a gun, i could not come back home to the house without worrying about this. they just put him in a hospital, and put him right back next to me. this went on for six years. host: thank you. guest: depending on the district in the state, i think republicans want to talk about the second amendment. i think the issue might be changing. we have talked about florida multiple times. there was a gubernatorial debate where gillam was coming out with more progressive -- on the side of more progressive and liberal gun policies. desantis did not have a typical republican response, maybe because florida is a tossup state. with the multiple shootings that have happened in florida in the

last two years. host: we have seen huge early voting numbers. what does that tell you? guest: i tread carefully. i think a couple of things. we know who is returning the ballots. we don't know what is on those ballots. just to assume all republicans are voting republican, it makes me a little uncomfortable. and how much of this are people voting on election day or voting early. that does not necessarily change the composition of the calculation of the midterm. if people would normally vote in presidentials or have not voted recently, and they are changing the makeup of the electorate itself, that could make a difference. i just read carefully. let's just wait until tuesday night when the early votes are counted, the election day votes and we will have results.

host: on "newsmakers" we asked the chairman of the committees. they agreed we may not know who controls the house by wednesday. guest: that is due to a number of close races. there are probably three dozen races were candidates are within a few points. perhaps every vote nice to be counted before a projection can be made. maine's second district where they moved to a rank choice. they have this complex algorithm. it might go past election day. also the nine elections in california. three in washington state.

here is a look at the c-span schedule this morning. "washington journal" begins shortly. "newsmakers" begins at 10:00 with the heads of the democratic and republican congressional committees. after that, a forum on voting and election security. at 11:30, david frum and steve >> news and policy issues that impact you. coming up sunday morning, university of michigan computer science and engineering professor joins us to discuss but a machine security and sean races tolks about key watch on election night. he sure to watch washington journal, live at 7:00 eastern monday morning. join the discussion.

>> earlier today, former president obama campaign for joe donnelly in fort wayne. here are some of his comments. you can see the entire event on www.c-span.org or here on c-spine -- c-span. 10 years ago i was campaigning for president. [applause] i had no gray hair at the time. i was shown a picture of me and him together. victor, by the way. but victor were shown me picture, but i don't.