what i do on a day-to-day basis, what i do within the context of the family research council reflects a fidelity to my faith. nothing is more important to me than that fidelity. im anddelity defined to what my agenda is, and what other agendas i will join. host: ken blackwell is the senior fellow for human rights and governance at the family research council. you can also check out his columns at the patriot post. we appreciate your time. >> washington journal continues. harry bruinius joins us now from new york, staff writer for the christian science monitor. you point out in a recent story that public perception about crime rates in the u.s. is different from the actual data.

explain. guest: it is interesting. nature question of human and the nature of human media. you go back as far as aristotle, and you see we are a species of rubberneckers. aphorism,ism, we have if there is a story, dog bites man, it is not a story. it is a common occurrence. if the story is man bites dog, there is a lot of attention paid to it. we pay attention to stories that are anomalies. stories of violence have always attracted our attention. stories like dog doesn't like man is not a story. we have had this astonishing decline in crime, but it is just

not what people are almost programmed to understand. fbi, violentom the crime in the u.s. in 1993, 750 crimes are 100,000 residents in the u.s. in 2016, that number dropped to 286 crimes per 100,000 residents in the u.s. take us back to the early to mid-1990's at the peak of violent crime, the peak after a three decade increase. what do experts attribute that increase to? it thei have called great debate. in some ways, scholars, criminologists are still thinking about what happened. there is a general story about

the revitalization of american cities starting around that time. cities have lost manufacturing jobs. they had been hollowed out. crime began to fester for decades. it reached a crescendo in 1993 when it all started to begin this steady five-year decline. -- 25-year decline. it is a variety of things. one thing that is underreported is the role communities themselves, there began to be new efforts of community groups, block captain who became involved in taking back the streets. the other big story is the rise of more precision policing. this is an area in which there are huge debate about what is the role of policing?

in new york city, it played a huge role. if you look at the overall landscape, crime has declined. certain cities have not seen that. has declined.ime there are still trees where crime may not have declined as much. it is a complicated landscape. one other thing you can say about the revitalization of american cities is immigrants started moving in around that time and became more socioeconomically and racially and ethnically diverse. then people started moving in. as neighborhoods start to revitalize and become more prosperous, crime actually starts to decline. that a complicated swirl

includes new policing, changes in revitalizing cities, and lots of factors that have contributed to what is an extraordinary jaw-dropping drop in crime. -- f four are more visual or our more visual learners, this chart with with the story. overall violent crime per 1000 people in the u.s., you can see it dropping significantly from 1994 through 2016. the blue line is the public perception of crime. that survey of respondents saying crime has increased over the last year. we want to know what you think about it. join the conversation by calling in. if you are in the eastern or

central time zones, (202) 748-8000. if you are in mountain or pacific time zones (202) 748-8001. mentioned new york a little bit ago. can you talk about the influence the new york police department and its tactics and equipment have had throughout the country, the role it has played in leading this crime decline. guest: the new york city police department has been the main laboratory of new techniques of policing during that time. 1980's, andn the through the early 1990's, it started with cops that -- comps tat. that became more and more precise. there was the story of stopping frisk, which is part of a larger frisk, which is part

of a larger story of mass incarceration and the story of who is being policed. new york's crime rate has fallen. the rest of the country and the rest of western europe, crime has declined around the world. in new york city, it has been more extraordinary. there are more than 2000 murders in 1993 in new york city. last year, there were around 200. that is a 90% decline. overall, crime in new york city has declined in new york city by 85%. some cities have not seen such declines. certainly one of the reasons new york city has been so extraordinary has been the work of the new york city police department. host: one of the cities that is

not seen that the client is baltimore. -- decline is baltimore. last year baltimore saw the in its murder rates history. you wrote a story about that. what is happening in baltimore? why is it going in the opposite direction of the overall national trend? say,: one thing you could the resources that are in new york, not just the nypd, but new york city is in some ways the mecca of social services. there are programs for people getting out of prison. there are all sorts of small community groups that are really active. those are things that are not as --nearly as common in baltimore. the killing of freddie gray was a blow to the baltimore police

department and the community as well. things got out of control in baltimore the last couple of years. that it peaked, and crime is starting to go down, as it is nationally. overall, 2014 was one of the safest years in the u.s. on record, certainly as modern records have been kept. it ticked up the last two years. the 2017 numbers, crime has gone down. after a spike over the last two years in chicago, you are seeing early estimates that in some of these cities where violence had been such a problem over the last two or three years that it is starting to recede again.

declinee great crime since the 1990's is our topic. harry bruinius of the christian science monitor is our guest, taking your calls, your comments, your questions. nathan, you are up first. caller: thank you for taking my call. my question has to do with a recent book i read, which references a decline in crime starting in the 1990's as being in part because of roe v. wade and the availability of abortion across the country. situations that have reduced the population in groups that have been plagued with crime. at the same time, birth control came in for women. rights came ins as well. women could choose. did you touch on that in your article?

thank you. that: that was an argument was made about a decade ago. i believe it was popularized in a book called freakonomics. i believe that hypothesis has been criticized to an extent because one of the reasons is you don't see trends like that in other places. it is not uniform. the argument is there was a decline. most crime is committed by males 17 to 23, and the argument is after roe v. wade, with greater access to birth control, that this population is diminished. that is not necessarily true. the criticisms of this hypothesis was that when you look closely, it doesn't measure up. i don't talk to many

criminologists that put much weight in that argument anymore. it may have an influence in certain places, but just talking to criminologists and scholars over the last couple years, that idea made a splash over a decade --, and i don't think it is that scholars cite this as a major factor in the great crime decline. host: rory, new york city. you are next. go ahead. wondering if the degree of sensationalism by the media has an impact on the public perception. what percentage of time or number of stories that are reported on violent crimes versus other types of news? thank you.

guest: that is such a great question. it is such a complicated question. as i mentioned earlier, it has a lot to do with who we are as a species and the nature of media. media and storytelling in general focuses on anomalies and tragedies and focuses on violence, even if you think of our fictional media. these are the things we look at, tot we crane our necks see. it does skew our perception of what is happening. i think that is a reason why the great crime decline is not such a source of great celebration in the media. story dog doesn't bite man just isn't a story, so if everything is going well and the way it is supposed to come it is

almost as if there is no story to tell. we are -- i have been telling the story about the great crime decline for years. especially in the last couple of years. it is a good question. i have suggested that it is part of human psychology that we just don't focus on things when they are going normally in the way they are supposed to. we are rubberneckers. host: you mentioned the media. what about the stories politicians tell, that they make on the issue of violent crime, whether it be in campaigns or political ads? of course, that is immediate issue as well. fear works. you emphasize that crime has obviously not gone away. horrible things still happen, they just happened last.

-- a lot less. what is reported is not proportional to the numbers that are actually happening. , depending on the context, can talk about crime is doing great. here in new york city, before the election of narrative osseo, there were many -- mayor the -- de blasio, there were many that said with a new liberal mayor, you would see crime shoot up every year, crime keeps going down. that means there are other factors at work. any politician is going to use what data is out there to help. president trump made a lot about the fact that in 2016, the murder rate jumped up. filing crime jumped up --

violent crime jumped up, even though it was still at half the level it was 20 years ago. 2014 was the safest year on modern record. shock to see go up in 2015 and 2016. that could be used to say what is happening? why is it happening? there were some serious concerns about certain cities, which were driving those national rates u p. it was concentrated in certain places and cities. crime iss that violent again starting to decline in 2017 and 2018. it has certainly stabilized and is not going up. it has gone down slightly over the last year and a half. lee. good morning,

i don't know where he is getting his charts. i live in henderson. i work in las vegas. we used to have areas in las vegas that were nice. murdering, people robbing people. it is ridiculous. if he thinks crime is going down, look at our statistics. it has gotten worse. i don't blame the police. herad a girl that was in teens, 14 or 16, she was doing her homework. this gang came over, out of the car, blasted the building, killed her. it was groups, we have the wrong house. every time the police tried to do something, it is we are picking on this person or that

one. the only people that seem to get richer are the lawyers. guest: i brought up the analogy at the you can look numbers for the forest and see the great decline. of course, there are pockets of trees which have not seen the decline. there are always pockets around the country in which crime is still a problem. i don't know specifically about tes in the last couple of years in your area in las vegas. certainly there are localities in which there are still problems that are cropping up. as we have seen over the last two years in certain cities around the country, there has been a profound spike in violence. we should not forget that there rising crimewhich

is a problem. the point i am making is that looking at the last 25 years, there has been a jaw-dropping drop in crime around the country. i think that is important for our viewers to understand that when we look at the forest, there is been this tremendous decline. in the last two years, there have been some spikes in violence in certain urban areas. that appears to be the case in your area. you should understand that local issues and larger national issues or trends don't always line up. what are your thoughts on the focus in recent years on aggressive police tactics and the pushback against those?

concerns by some individuals that too much of a pushback might lead to police not doing their job, to people getting away with crimes. i am not sure that there is evidence that either policing is declining or that the clash in certain neighborhoods with police, although profound, is leading to a reduction in policing. that is part of the story. it is being called the ferguson effect. to see thearly precise causes in these spikes. the issue of aggressive policing and mass incarceration over this for is one of, certainly

minority neighborhoods, which have been on the receiving end of precision focused policing, has devastated certain communities. the rise of the black lives matter met and the protest of aggressive policing, and stop ruledisk in new york was unconstitutional. young black men were being frisked almost daily on the streets. 2013 when stopping frisk wastop and curtailed. crime continued to drop in new york. when it comes to nonviolent drug arrest,s, marijuana

that old adage that you focus on the low crimes in the area people smoking a joint on the street, arrest them and prosecute them. that leads to devastated lives. the trend is to see this is not that big of a deal. there are people in prison today for carrying amounts of marijuana that would be considered most states is not worth bothering with. nyc has changed its aggressive approach to things like marijuana smoking because of this national movement protesting these aggressive tactics. with 10 minutes left harry bruinius of the christian science monitor. michael from north carolina.

thank you for waiting. caller: hello. host: go ahead. caller: you are showing the charts from 1993 comparing to rates now. how much of that permission is updated considering the rate of population growth in this country and how that might things.r change those you talk about perception. it seems like a lot of news agencies, they will only pick and choose parts of each story to put out there for their narrative. it seems to me not telling the whole truth is fake news. not accusing this man or anybody else of fake news. what would be the adjustment population rate in this country? thank you. host: thanks.

guest: yes, these charts are adjusted for population growth. are the number of violent crimes are 100,000 residents in any given area. survey thatederal is done. a lot of these numbers are taken by sampling around the country. the question of how these numbers are gotten is a good one. one that people should ask. these fbi numbers are always based on either a population, the rate is per 100,000 citizens. you look at the rate of crime, not the hard numbers. as population grows, the numbers

go up. toorder to compare, you need compare the rate, not the overall number. the chart you're looking at is a number.on adjusted host: we mentioned the fbi statistics earlier. collect datai every year. it takes them about a year to get their numbers. we will see the 2018 numbers next year. the fbi sample from police departments across the country. it is often an estimate. bureau asks a survey that asks people their experience

with crime. a lot of crime is not reported. violent crime, murders are always a hard figure. the bureau of statistics looks at people reporting their crime. 12, is based on people over and they use chunks of 1000 people. how many people per 1000 in any given population are experiencing certain crimes? was 80 violentit crimes per 1000 residents over 12 years old. crimes per 1000 residents over 12 years old. john, chicago. you're next. caller: it is such encouraging data. i am a physician. i work on the south side of chicago.

was put in my neck and shot. guest: i'm from the south suburbs, by the way. caller: oh, yes. clearly for me, i am concerned my life. i am driven from home to home by a young lady. i worry about her life. you mentioned marijuana. it seems to me it would be so simple to solve the problem in chicago by the legalization of that marketing concern. harry bruinius. guest: that is argument that many people are making these days. that is an argument that is ascendant as more states legalize marijuana for medicinal and recreational purposes. that is a trend that i think is

going to continue. suggestion isour a right one. i think marijuana possession as thiswere often used is your first in. you pass someone down, and they are carrying a joint, and you arrest them to get them off the street under the assumption that this person you are arresting for a minor marijuana crime is someone who in all probability, they think, may commit other serious crime. then there is a focus in certain neighborhoods on black and latino men. , if wemportant to say just look at white and black use of marijuana, all surveys show it is equal.

men,ially with young white they probably smoke at higher rates than latino men. there are different surveys out there. roughly 60% of the country is white. white.of the country is most of the marijuana in this country is being ingested by white people. the people that are being put in jail for marijuana is overwhelmingly, 85%, black and latino. it is one of those structural things that is happening in the veryry that leads to diverse -- i mean, the inequity between how the country over the last 50 years or so has the policed marijuana crimes has been skewed profound. i think what you are suggesting to decriminalize marijuana will

-- again, in some ways, the question would be how much crime and how much social negatives does marijuana caused? the data people are looking at now is that it is quite nil especially compared to other substances people take legally. you, not allto ask kinds of crime are on the decline. your thoughts on hate crimes in the u.s. it is up for the third year in the route in 2017. more than 27,000 incidents reported around the country, up 16% from 2016. guest: the numbers when you look at them are always relatively small. there has certainly been a

climate in the country over the past three years that has seen -- that is seen muslims and immigrants in a negative light. expressed in acts of violence and harassment, discrimination. those are being tracked. , when yount to say look at the hard numbers, in the context of overall crime, they are up. i get fair to say they are still anomalies that there are certain types of people that commit these types of crimes, but that is trending upwards, but it is still a small trend, again, that may happen more intensely in

various parts of the country than in others. i don't mean to minimize it or diminish it, but it certainly is -- there is more visible evidence of people of acting groupsly towards other and committing more of those kinds of a crimes, certainly those are trending upwards. i think it is important to note point -- talking about the media before, i don't think it's a concern, but it should be something that has been stood against and i have written about it many times think that it shouldn't be something that emphasizes the fear but -- host: you can read his work in the christian science monitor or follow him on twitter at harry

bru journal"'s "washington coming up, jim banks will be with us to talk about his trip to afghanistan. a discussion about the u.s. asylum process with sarah pierce. discussbanes will legislation to strengthen democracy. watch "washington journal" live at 7:00 a.m. eastern this morning. join the discussion. >> here is a look at live coverage wednesday. the house is back at noon eastern for legislative business. on the agenda, several bills including one that would direct the commerce secretary to conduct a study on the development of internet connected devices in the u.s..

on c-span2, theresa may takes questions from the house of commons at 7:00 eastern. the senate continues debate on the nomination of karen kelly to be deck -- to be deputy commerce cemetery. on c-span3, andrew wheeler sits down with washington post to talk about environmental priorities. there is a house oversight hearing on the management of federal prisons with the justice department's inspector general on the head of the federal bureau of prisons. brad meltzer will be our guest on in-depth. his most recent book debuted at number one on the new york times bestsellers list. books include the book

of fate and first counsel. join us for in-depth, fiction addition with brad meltzer, live sunday, from noon to 3:00 p.m. eastern on c-span2. >> former president barack obama sat down with former secretary of state james baker and presidential historian john meacham at rice university in texas. the conversation is part of a celebration of 25 years of the baker institute for public policy at rice university.