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>> host: this is kyle kondik, sabato'sing editor of crystal ball joining us to talk about campaign 2020. morning. >> guest: good morning. >> host: what is it like looking at these situations with announcementren's this week? >> guest: feels like 2016 on the you hadan side where candidates getting in. in that race there was not big fish that sueded other candidates from entering the race. who dip major candidate run on the republican side of 2016 was mitt romney. was able to push out mit roll romney but was not able to push out anyone else. candidatetsider donald trump getting the nomination. cue go back to 1976 and the andcrat that was big field jimmy carter came out of that who iss was candidate not established person, so one

very bign the democratic field, if this race may throw out a curve ball and someone may emerge that we dop expect. >> host: does it indicate getting a name out first? how does that work? the 2016 i feel like ofle started in mid-december 2014. veer then cycle. mid-december so elizabeth warren getting in a couple of days ago and that is standard now. the presidential campaign if you get the nomination, see eventually, a two-year proposition. look. we had democratic candidates eventually running for president like kamala harris and others sort of making it kind of clear they are going to run cory booker so one sort of formalized it. in.reason maybe she got only she knows why she decided to announce when she did. of a may be something scramble for staff at this point

and maybe by getting in a little earlier you may have a better pick of staff because otheratic consultants and ks involved in these campaign and only so many good people to get and that is part of the and maybe we'll see more democrats getting in the next couple of weeks here. guest will be with us. if you want to ask him questions about potential candidate whan they face. republicans: 202-748-8001 independents: 202-748-8002 democrats: 202-748-8000. let's hear little bit from elizabeth war friend her announcement. can make our democracy work for all of us. work forke our economy all of us. we can rebuild america's middle time, we got to build it for everyone. live inr where you america, and no matter where your family came from in the deserve a path to opportunity because no matter

of usur differences, most want the same thing. work hard. with the same set of rules. take care of the people we love. amt is the america i fighting for. that is why, today, i am launching an ex plar story for president, the wrought com of this election on you.end then lost that years, millions of people have done more than toy ever though they would protect the promise of americans. if we organize together, if we fight together, if we persist we can win. we can. we can and we will. >> host: not new for her. i think we saw a lot of standard issue democratic scenes of this theage and actually one of messages that i with associate with bill clinton in the '0's hard and play by the rules. people who work hard and play by

the rules can get ahead and one, sort of use that exact same terminology, although, i think is an is a can date who left ward spectrum than hillary clinton four years ago, certainly as bill clinton as a candidate and president in the know, that is where the democratic party is headed. i think we have seen both bit moreet a little polarized and increasingly is aratic party, i think, little bit more liberal, but also, i do wonder, this is not addressed in the video, you know, we do have a president who kind of sounds lake democrat on for instance, also, who has been a little bit more on policy, how are these democrats going to try to different it a themselves are the president baits is natural nom nicehe democratic

to be on the opposite side of any issue donald trump. that is something that is hashed out the many presidential debates we will have in the summertime on the democratic size. host lost to is a phrase ex nome to be on the opposite side of any issue donald trump. that is something that is hashed out the many presidential debates we will have in the summertime on the democratic size. host lost to is a phrase ex plar story committee a lot. what does it mean? >> guest: a way to get the campaign going without being a candidate. i reb jeb bush sort of he'll held off on the official decoration for awhile and part of the reason for that he was able to build the big super pack was going to help him with the nomination and it didn't work out that which and it did thatlot of money during exploratory time, but look, theabeth warren starting committee and running for president. there are certain legal itches about it you know, we can sit her and say she is going to be a candidate. >> host: going to iowa this weekend. >> guest: of course, you got the traditional states starting up newcalendar, iowa, hampshire, california, the biggest prayer they moved up to march. voting will start in california several weeks before that. so the call len daughter is compressed which will be interesting to see if that detrackings a little bit from i getting, new hampshire as much attention as they usually get.

>> host: our first call for you comes from marion. she is in virginia. democrat's line. hello. >> caller: hello. happy new year to everyone. >> host: happy new year. ago are. >> caller: oh, thank you. my question to you is: what is change? we have lobbyists. we have big money. donors that buy the politician on both side parties. on the democratic side. i know it happens with the democrats as well. they just said the lobbyists are moving in to start, you bribing the democrats. the big donors and i understand of thisticians need all money and that is what is concerning and like there are two teams. team of the workers out here. the 99%, and the one percent. in charge ande have the power in making all the all the money is going to them. we don't have a chance.

they are not going to represent us. that is my concern. can you address that, please? >> guest: so certainly the influence of the well-heeled and industries, that has always been an issue in american here to and i am not prescribe ways to deal this with w that necessarily. i think the democrats are going about thengs that you talked about end your question during their debates and you know, i mean, i wonder if democrats will be pushing for things like public financing of elections which i guess hypothetically could reduce money or coming up with some sort of legislative response the citizens united supreme court decision for several years ago, which you oh, but again, sometimes, these don't necessarily work and they don't work the way you mccain-feingold campaign finance reforms tenned to make the parties a little bit less powerful. you still see big donors having

electionsnce on the and then, look, i don't know if certainlyl, well, democrats are more in favor of the campaign finance restrictions than republicans are. see it as a free speech issue. frankly, this supreme court that think isow, that i more conservative than it has been in the past. they also view the campaign finance issues as first amendment questions and even if total control of washington and tried to do wide sweeping campaign finance regulation. i don't know if the court would go along with them on that. and onetricky question there are significant differences between the two parties. >> host: this is wayne. hello. >> caller: good morning. >> host: good morning. >> caller: yeah. i would like to ask a question if i could. which one of the democratic candidates is the most socialists? listen.ang up and thanks. >> guest: well i guess you could

say bernie sanders because he uses that word to describe himself and he is not technically a democrat. relecked as. in vermont, but, you know, obviously, he has pursued the democratic presidential nomination before in 2020.well may do so will say, again, i think that is liberal leaning field where it socialists and up to your own again, you would beect the democratic nominee left wing candidate and more in keeping with where we. recently the democrats i guess as opposed to bill clinton who at least officers of waswhen he was a candidate that he was just sort of a third way kind of more kind of moderate southern democrat. you know, those folks dop necessarily exist in the democratic party now and i think clinton is more liberal figure now than he was 25 years ago. >> host: what is the likelihood of joe biden being a part of

field. >> guest: he is mulling it over. 50-50. someone like biden doesn't get as early because he has the name i.d. he will probably be able to build up organization. in fact, he kind of has an organization right now in the life.ice president so we are still waiting to see. but gain, you lack at all the is no within in the field who is clearly therefore,gure, and i would think that would lead to more candidates getting in as opposed to fewer. about houseg getting in, you know, generally house members don't do that much in presidential's contest and house members, senators, governors, perhaps people who are not in government someone like michael bloomberg who is former mayor of otherrk city, and some folks may decide to get in and so you know, i do think it is a pretty big field. >> host: you mentioned michael bloomberg them? a comment about what he would like to see you see. that.hear from

um, there is no rush to do it. everybody wants to know what you the bottomo do and in line is, i am not sure yet. issues.bout a bunch of care for my kids. i care for this conly that has been so good to me and i want to how i can help the best. andt now by foundation company, 100%% of the company's profits to the foundation. awful lot of things that we are doing that to us explain to people how do things and give them options, not telling them what to do, can make the world a better place in the private sector? cane make it a better place the public sector? i think it is fair to say most in cityike what we did hall. a goodink i could be president? yes. i am not the only one that could be good president. current president on so many things that i don't there.ow where to start

>> i assume, are you trying to figure out if democratic party you.ing to accept if >> well, i am much closer to their philosophy, although i with anyone party on everything. would you have to run as a democrat. to get a have democratic nomination. think if you go out and you he explain to them you what do. keep in mind, i got leaked in new york city, overingly city.atic overing minority city. i got elected three times. i must know something about this. >> host: kyle? >> guest: he has unlimited amount of money. the question is could you , you know, use that money and actually generate support. questions about bloomberg and some of maybe the tactics ind police new york say that i think maybe would be something that other can days would use against bloomberg. here's the thing whether he is 20 candidates or 25.

her and bad-mouth the chance of 20 to 25 of them. i would be right. got win this nomination and there is no clear can't sit herei to say, oh, well, elizabeth warren has no chance. michael bloombergs into chance. i mean, i don't know. i think there are a lot of people with credible resumes who run credible campaigns who will decide to run and a long campaign to go a year or plus before, before people start voting. >> in bloomberg's cass you have to deal with what to do with the news division as he is running. >> that is right. there is some talk which is politics or something if prerunning which is sort of a -- kind of a problematic thing. of course, bloomberg is very big and very important news entity covering, covering american politics, specifically in the theyfive or ten years beefed that coverage up. >> host: this is from new jersey. hello. >> caller: good morning.

mrs. warren's rollout yesterday and i was quite impressed with it. following her since before she was a senator and to stand up the that, that she founded, more or less, after the last crisis. think she has a strong case to mainly that unlike many of the people who want to be popular and she actually came working class/poor family. walked roadsas that donald trump never walked, that hillary clinton never walked. she was not supported throughout father ory remember his family. her knowledge of law

her pretty viable as far as looking to the future as to what to do with the american dream that is not working for many people. >> host: ok. thank you, caller. i. >> guest: i think the caller that elizabeth wants to make. she does come from humble beginnings. interesting biography. actually her idea of consumer protection and other things are very important to where democratic party stands on those and i thinkes today she is pretty important member democratic senate caucus and i also think that frankly, lessons maybe from the 2018 primary season was that i think democratic primary voters when given the option to alsofor people of color or also white women sort of liked having that option and the party is becoming more diverse and it seems certainly possible that the

for a second time in a row, actual lay third time in a a whiteld not nominate male to be the presidential nominee and so, again, there positives, i think, for warren, one of the things that tripped up warren has been about her native american ancestry and she and her team decided to release dna test shen the took a couple of months ago. that was not well received and doesn't seem look the president will be on that particular issue refer toll continue to her as pocahontas which again he will keepongly doing it. we know enough about the president he will not give that up. think a lot of people questioned why she decided to but youat issue back up know that is not part of a rollout video and what was part reallyllout video was very modest, modest beginnings and you know, rising career.vely in the so i think was a tend city to kind of upper et cetera

mate the chance and she is a credible contender you know, i favorite fors is the nomination? no, there is no favorite for the nomination. thet newyou hinted york sometime times talking about the var is a why weres he has connected to the american possibility pack pack and the protection of children and the cancer initiative that guess on bidenhere including the foundation. to do all of these become potential source for the topaign should he decide run? >> guest: i would think so. there is a lot of people would you associate with at the various place and that could sizeof meta more quarterbacking flay a campaign or he doesn't run and all of thesenties just keep going and sort of an important figure in democratic party but not a candidate for the look, main, i don't have any prediction on biden, but certainly, he is a contender just along with the many others. this idea of about a pure campaign funding of all

dollar donation not funding from corporate. who is making those kind of promises? can they be kept? >> i think part of it is whether can actually raise the small dollars. i would think so they would be small dollars and how the former texas house campaigno reason a against ted cruz although he lost. he has tacked about his contern. could raisee who small dollars donation because he did so great in the his 2018 senate thisand i think a lot of has to do with can you actually raise the small dollars? you know someone like michael bloomberg he can wait a check so that is a positive thing for the can say it sy if you do see some more kind of maybe corporate figures getting in the race this e don't have to worry aboutis much about fund-raising but you know, not everyone is going to be able to a ton of machine my with small dollars then it becomes who do you take money from? not a very sensitive subject on the republican side

it? , and youmocratic side sometimes see canadas saying they will not take money from kind of packs or what not. that would be issue for campaign. in this >> host: our guest with the university of virginia of politics the managing editor of sabbah tow's crystal ball. what is that. >> guest: a weekly news lefter. we try to handicap the winwers losers a we get closer to the election that comes out sign up.rsday, free to michigan.his is from independent lane, bon, hello. >> caller: yeah. this is a comment regarding elizabeth warren's advertisement inclusive america. tape again, um, i bet you a dollar you won't see in it.ale all females. all ethic racial groups.

one white male in the advertisement. that is elizabeth war reason's all-inclusive america. >> host: actually was. >> guest: i watched the video yesterday. there were white men in it. i think warren is trying to put together a multi racial coalition, although, we know weakestte men are the demographic group for democrats, but you know, white voters still up majority of the electorate. white men getting some support. geeing totally crushed is important in states like michigan, spencevania, that are going to help determine the next president. those states are whiter han the inional average and also some ways the working class and the national average and you know, if you look at the key voters in the 2016 play thate a sort of 2020, you poe, you looking at the democratic voters the decided to vote for donald trump perhaps reluctantly

to get those rotors back is crucial for elizabeth warren. appear you watch that four and a half video. those folks do appear but it is sort of a multi ethic coalition that she is trying to that is where the democratic party is. you know, new hampshire. we. >> seen this in the past inch for a sitting president who gets re234078nated. new hampshire can sometimes trip him up. we have seen pat buchanan in the right of president george w. bush. further,k a little bit lyndon johnson only got, only won by sort of unprimessive actually over mccarthy in 1968 and decided not run fanned he did have someone like john kasich or jeff and that person, know, basically decapped to new hampshire for a year.

hampshire casting a protest vote against the president. he may not mean that the president would lose the could be abut it sign of weakness going forward. you know, also, there is the of thelity that because mueller investigation or some other factor that the president in 2020 or have to resign or not pre--ing that but i am saying there is a wide range of possibilities and also the possibility that the president will get reelected. you know, just a lot of uncertainty now. but the president still refans pretty good approval ratings with the republicans specifically. 80% plus. that is not the kind of, that is still strong. and you would not expect him to lose renomination that point but he may save some opposition and maybe more than token opposition. >> here is russell from north carolina. democrat's line. >> caller: good morning. doing today.ll >> host: doing well. >> caller: i have a question. now what about a three-party 2020? and as far as immigration and

whenever one is talking about all inclusive, but again, still they are supporting that of people who are refugees from coming in to the country to joy this american dream. know, at least pursue it. and the third party in 2020. may, is there not -- we have a pendulum. cut your head off. left will smile at you while we do it. a party that would balance this out? some cry about you messed up the in 2016. no. that was not the case. the case is that people are a democracyand in to vote for who they choose to best represent them. >> host: thanks, caller. >> guest: you may see someone like john kasich decide tow run third party. because you know, you look at had twoyear where you unpopular presidential candidates and the third party

push and ily 6 wouldn't say they were tar particularly strong and asuing donaldar trump is republican nominee that is up or down refer run dumb on president which to me would suggest probably a small third assuminge but also there is not a major third party candidate. mean, 1992 was refer ren did you. you had ross perot coming in getting 16% of the vote or if someone were credible coming in. you could see a lot of people defect. let's face it. i don't think as the callers allude to. even though i think, americans are pretty polarized by party i wouldn't say the two parties are so maybenarily popular there would be a an opportunity come in, although, that pepper affect the vote would you not expect this person to win or carry any individual state. from culpepper, virginia, democrat's lynn, wilbur, go ahead. >> caller: happy new year,

gentlemen. >> host: happy new year. >> caller: first of all, i would like to say joe biden, he would when get my vote because chairman of the committee back in the days. now my dream tick debt would be mccullum, the ex governor of state, and kamala harris, california. that's the dream ticket for the country. are going to need a southern to theent to go down south and have some fot vogts. ticket.y dream remember joe biden? clarence thom mison the supreme court. >> host: thank you. goodest: the caller has point. joe biden has long history in washington and a lot of stuff to pick at and a candidate who i think the past has looked better on paper than actually in practice. that is something to consider even as joe biden is

polls.to be leading he lead a crept national poll from cnn. may be that if he would run again, the other can day was him and startp on picking away at him because he is also probably more centrist left candidate than others in the democratic pealed mccullough is another democratic nominee. i know it seems like is runninged in particularly if joe biden don't run. of virginiaovernor is someone who is basically most known i think for being with the clintons and i don't know if there is desire for that. again, he would be a credible person, too. we are talking about house members and a lot of senators about governorch bus the governor of virginia, the governor of colorado, those names to watch from some of the governor's group in terms of possibilities and senator harris of california is another contender.

again, i could list probably 20 more people who are tagging about running and may be candidate. >> host: when do we start seeing debates? june.st: i believe in either june or july. and, remember, the republicans time they had a big field, they had to have the grown-up ande and the kids' table undercard debate because they could accommodate ten people on the main stage and going to it up and maybe do back-to-back nights and you see joe maybe biden in one debate, then elizabeth warrener on the one bit more fair, although, i is a hard problem for the parties to have to deal with. in hindsight to say republicans, you know, didn't reckly.le 2016 cover it is is hard to be too harsh on them and see if the democrats with the benefit of being able to look back with what republicans did are able to come equitable way of

including candidates determining which debate they part of if you have more than ten. i think you probably will just in summer 2019, you know, may be ail 2020 different story. sabato'skyle kondik, crystal ball, [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2018] announcer 1: a live look at the white house were congressional members are meeting with president for what the white house is calling a briefing on border security. see the microphones waiting for members to come out and speak to reporters as soon as that meeting is finished. also happening now, the senate gaveling in for their last full congress. 115th you can watch live coverage on our companion network, c-span2. tomorrow will mark the 13th