same, but c-span's big idea is more relevant today than ever. no government money supports c-span and its nonpartisan coverage is supportive buyer yourog -- supported by cable provider or satellite provider. it serves as economic development at the ohio state university joining us from columbus, ohio and on trade issues. good morning. your university put out a report looking at the economic impact on the trade skirmish of 2018 in ohio and statewide. we hear the term trade war a lot. what does that mean for those who live in ohio? guest: it is confusing. payingufacturers are

retaliatory tariffs are complaining about costs, but employment remains robust and employers are trying to fill positions. thehe background, you have tragedy for northeast ohio with the closure of a plant. there is a feeling the economy is beginning to shift. int: of the things produced ohio, what is directly affected because of the ongoing trade differences? guest: ohio has the largest exposure to retaliatory tariffs and the largest payer of retaliatory tariffs ironically are the metals-making industry. users out of canada are

the largest exporter of metals in the united states. the largest is dealing with issues of aluminum because really the only aluminum importers left are in the eastern and central part of north america, had they are all in quebec -- and they are all in quebec. just think about the all aluminum bed of the f-150 being hit with higher cost. host: the report your university put out taking a look at those issues, what were you setting to do? >> they wanted to know what the economic impact was in the nation and in ohio itself. we also wanted to see how the

steel industry was reacting to the shelter of these tariffs, and whether employment was expanding, and whether production was expanding? the answer is not much has happened. the only thing that happened was the escalation of the product itself. host: can you give reasons for that? >> we can. the united states went into an economic dip in 2016, and recovered. at the same time, in texas, well drilling took off. before the tariffs were assessed, we saw capacity come back online, so the fundamentals of the market were there. before the tariffs were announced, we saw an escalation in prices.

in july, the price of a metric ton of hot band steel went over $1000 a ton. escalation. the price has gone since then, but the gap between china-made steel and u.s.-made steel remains large. host: if you have questions about trade policies, 202-748-8000. if you live in the rest belt state, 202-748-8000. -- a line in your report was how to address problems with china? what would you change? guest: just a background, china makes 52% of the globe's steel.

for political reasons, they don't want playoffs in their mills. whenlobe is worrying that china goes into a recession, where is that mental going to be dumbed down -- where is that tal going to be dumbed it? dumped? to be right now, chinese deal doesn't play a big role in the u.s. market, the undermining the wto and going into bilateral -- tiations are

we got strong answers. there is unanimity in the state problemt support is a to be dealt with. not understanding why we then turn like a frightened dog and fight canada and mexico when it comes to trade issues with china? manufacturers tell us -- we had manufacturers tell us they don't mind taking a shortcut with china. but they are confused as to why the tariffs or against our best trading policies --trading partners. host: the phone lines are on your screen. maryland, you are on with professor ed hill.

caller: i cannot give through on line.dependent i was hung up on three times. host: you are online now. caller: i'm telling you about your technical issues. i agree, we need to stand up to china, but we are doing things that are hurting our farmers, and the cannot do that. their lives are already hard enough. host: the former aspect of this, professor? farmers andd the how they were being affected by trade. any comment on that? guest: the second-largest industry affected in ohio is the farming industry. our largest export is our soybeans. the second-largest area of cured is mexico with meats.

and an awful lot of prepared foods gets shipping to canada because it is easier to distribute to canada from the central u.s. more than toronto. farming in the western part of the united states have been absolutely pummeled. you should get a good price on a large john deere tractor by going to bankruptcy auctions in ohio. host: and there is a line in your report that says it is too soon to declare winners and losers? guest: that is correct, but the caveat is agriculture is one place we know who the losers are. host: let's hear from mark in massachusetts on our life for others. hello. caller: pedro, good morning. naftasor, with regards to

and the renegotiation of the same deal from before, do you think it is logical -- not that logic can describe this current administration, but why wouldn't you try to strengthen nafta with canadian steel in american industry. and with mexico being a big emerging-market. instead, you have trump alienating everyone at the same time. thank you. usmca or naftae 2, or the village people's trade treaty, it is similar to the original nafta document, but there have been some changes made dealing and automotive so laboris -- so the larger

of the vehicle needs to be paid at $16 an hour. the market is already doing this. i was in a meeting with supply chain managers. they are doing what was already started, which is global companies are tired of dealing with currency fluctuations, and a number of people in the room believe that while these tariffs may be rolled back, we are in an era of higher tariffs and they are regionalized in her production, meaning they look at -- regionalized in their production, and most of the on shoring his labor-intensive work. firms finding chinese taking advantage of lower wage labor in central and southern mexico. as we are seeing by how supply

chains were, mexico is a central supplier, and when we look at market 35at is a million people. your caller is right. we have to take the north american perspective on it and that is how america win's. -- america wins. we know the only way to deal with border issues to the south is to have a stable, healthy, more law-abiding economy in mexico. we know canada is our closest ally. we end up with a recent trading blocs, north america will be essential to american workers. said wetwitter viewer can only control them with a multilateral agreement. the report makes a

statement that the only way you can really deal with trade issues and the dumping of metals is a multilateral approach. whether you can revive tpp, that is a political issue. we are good at saying no, we re--brand the effort -- we rebrand the effort. this is what came out with the previous report with the carnegie endowment. ohioans, when we ran focus groups across the state, we found there was anger about trade, but they are angry that trade policy wasn't linked to domestic policy in the united states. if you are in small towns across the state of ohio and in pennsylvania, and other places where century's old factories left, washington never really

-- to giveet these these towns a chance to get back up. there is a lot of concern that something is missing when local leadership and corporate money is not there to invest in a community. the real back pain and we can emptiedflint, when gm , they stayedories up for 10 to 20 years. trade flow tof the country as a whole. we need to give communities a chance to reinvest themselves. host: deborah, good morning,

from the rust belt. caller: good morning. thank you to c-span. hill, -- on, mr. host: caller, are you there? caller: yes, i'm originally from ohio, and currently in philadelphia. -- um, i stay in ohio, left.ter college, i what makes them stay in ohio? impact forere an people who move out of the state because of that?

guest: there has been outward migration. we are also seeing the growth in columbus going quite well, people are coming from the most robust parts of the state, so the state passed the issue is what do we do -- so the state's issue is how do we balance the three quarters connected by i 71 versus the other ohio? so, there are a couple of things that are important to remember. we look at another set of reports -- we looked at another set of reports of what is causing the decline in ohio. the number of manufacturing jobs have decreased since 1970. 70% of the loss is due to productivity. ae productivity gains manufacturing have been fantastic. but a lot of the growth in manufacturing has been in the

edges of the three major metropolitan areas. doubleas a time in the the 1980's,n of 1990's, and 2000 when people migrated looking for opportunities and there were going to bigger metro areas. some folks in the eastern part of the state are fans of the browns. the caller migrated to pennsylvania. i do my bachelors degree in philadelphia and came to ohio, so we counterbalance each other. headline, mike's dewine said ohio kicked around on international trade. there is a statement. how do we resolve these issues? , the: the governor

had, theyhat they think the trade policy is about right and will respectfully disagree with the governor perry host: can you expand on that? guest: having a trade policy that is largely protectionist and that distorts the metal using industry is harmful for the state. there are 35 workers and the -- in the metal industry. in the metal-producing threaties, the long-term is in arkansas where big river steelers. invested $1.2 productionintegrated and able invest another $1.3

billion on the same campus. they have an option for another plant in arousal, texas. -- brownsville, texas. figure using technology to make cutting -- they are using technology to make cutting edge plants. attention topay the north american threat by companies investing in new technology if they are not investing in new technology. host: from dan in washington, d.c., go ahead please. caller: thank you for taking my call. professor hill hit the nail on the head. the manufacturing base in china with the state subsidies and production capacity and dumping and all of the things they are doing is not just affecting the iron industry, synthetic turf is getting crushed of the are building production facilities

in other countries, so the trans-shipping issue, while it may hit some of our allies and ise negative impacts, it essential because we now see the state subsidized industries are shifting capacity to vietnam and other places in southeast asia. so having a tariff on products coming in from china doesn't get to the point of the dumping. the other thing is a lot of these importers are improperly coating the customs codes. they are looking at individual industries and having a tough time trying to properly code those for the tariffs to be properly assessed.

a lot of challenges on the trans-shipping side and it is a big industry, too, because you have companies marketing to these producers in china, and saying, we will trans-ship to another country and you don't have to worry about the trump administration. host: thank you very much for the call. guest: he raises a couple of interesting issue. the canadian government this summer past very strong legislation to prevent transshipping. in the past, there were pipes transcript out of china -- trans shipped out of china to korea. an the canadians realized important part of the revision passeda, and they and their customs

and duties are being integrated with the u.s. the technical issue about the --de codes, messerli billing mislabeling codes are a big issue and i believe customs and border control are all now one. the third part to be mentioned is what is happening with chinese manufacturers. there are smart and competitive companies there. chinese companies are setting up branch plants in vietnam, and starting to invest in mexico. economics is like water and will find its own level and good entrepreneurs and managers will find ways to make their companies survive. host: this is professor ed hill.

even as of this morning, cnn says the president says chinese parties may stay for -- tariffs may stay for a substantial period of time. guest: in the report, we say this is a scrappage -- this is a skirmish not large enough to trigger a recession, but if we take the automotive industry and declare it is vital for national naftae, even with the new with mexico and canada, that that will hurtve the u.s. massively. ofre is a fourth launch tariffs delayed from march, and if they call me into place, china -- and if they come into place, china will retaliate again.

if you keep the still tariffs in place and expanding the tariffs to the auto industry, and add that to the consumer confidence of the shutdown, and the stimulus effect that took place on the tax cut, the stimulus and larger than 2009. if you put that stuff together and the odds for recession start going up. there was a probability model called the yield curve. that hit 29% in cleveland. reserve isk federal up at 25%, so the increase of a recession because of the mismanagement of the economy is increasing. you see the federal reserve bank says they will -- you see the

federal bank says they will hold that. when we look at the business community, there was a lot of noise in the middle of the summer because they thought it was short term. the longer this goes on, the more action that will take place to move production to vietnam. steve, a rust belt resident, you are on with our guest. what arerofessor hill, the amounts of the tariffs that were collected and how it is being used? it is helping cash it is helping -- it is helping any of the communities? what you think the effect would be a both parties are working together to show solidarity with regard to our trade policy to

bring balance trade the president is trying to achieve? guest: that is a good question. i don't know if the answer will be as good as the question, but i will try my best. there has been an inflow from the tariffs going directly to fund its operation. it is pushing against the large deficit we have. remember, the deficit is forecasted to be 5% of gdp in 2019, which is quite large. secondly, there is a series of papers that came in that are much more sophisticated. lossindicate the welfare to the american consumer is much greater than the gain in revenue the treasury is getting. said we aret winning because of the flow of cash into the treasury. the exact same thing was said in

2001-2002 with the bush tariffs. when it comes to bipartisan politics, i'm going to stay away from that one. peter, go ahead. want toprofessor, i congratulate c-span on 40 years of great service to the american public. agriculture is, our number one industry, quickly followed by termism and operate creation. the trade policies trump initiated has hurt our montana farmers and particularly in their soybean production. trump and other republicans talk about no socialism, i have to laugh because they've instituted a program, a form program to help

out the farmers throughout the midwest and everywhere across the country. ifquestion is, do you know the future of this program is going to be expanded or detracted, or whatever? host: we will let the guest respond. guest: i will use a phrase and that is i don't know. the farm lobby is powerful in washington and there are a large number of senators that have farm interests. so, the issue primarily around being production is we have been helped a little bit. there is a major drought in south america that