areas. >> to think about what it is like to be an american is the fight for social, economic, and environmental justice. in turmoil, and we to fight for those who are more vulnerable and our environment and ensure that the world we have today is at least as good for our kids and grandkids. >> voices from the road on c-span. dan chris walt -- host: daniel griswold serves as the trade immigration project codirector at the mercatus center and is joining us to talk about issues related to the border. good morning. mr. gaffney: good morning -- guest: good morning. host: what is the long-term and short-term impact if the border should be close? guest: huge for tens of millions of americans. new mexico is our number three trading partner and number two market for u.s. exports. there is $1.5 billion a day in goods crossing the border.

15,000 trucks a day crossing the border. i have seen them lined up. half a million people cross the border every day legally to work, to shop, to visit family. if the border was shut down it would be devastating for border communities. like laredo and el paso. but it would affect all of us. mexico is a major source of not only manufactured goods. prices would spike for cars, fresh produce -- we get a lot of it from mexico, particularly avocados, tomatoes cucumbers. , more importantly, for american production and supply chains and nowhere more important than the u.s. auto industry. 25 years of nafta has given us an integrated north american manufacturing platform. there are parts that cost more -- there are auto parts that across the border seven or eight times. if we seal the border, you would see manufacturing plants in the

united states shutting down within a week. think of the ramifications that would have for the economy. we sell a lot to mexico. they are the number two market, so u.s. manufactured goods would be affected. auto parts, car, agriculture, soybeans, corn, meat and poultry. our farmers are dealing with a lot. the president's other tariff wars and retaliations, floods, this would be devastating to farmers. host: the president talked about a potential shut down of the border and stepped back from that. yesterday he brought up the topic of cars and automobile parts. i want to listen to what he has to say about that. [video clip] pres. trump: if the drugs don't stop, we are going to tariff the cars. the cars are big. if that does not work we will close the border. i think that will work. that is massive numbers of dollars. if we do not see people apprehended and brought back to

their countries, if we see these massive caravans coming up, right through mexico and coming right through mexico. buses are given to them. the last three days it has not happened since i said we are closing the border. the only thing better but less drastic than closing the border is to tariff the cars coming in. i will do it. you know i will. i do not play games. we are doing it to stop people, we will give them a one year warning, and if the drugs do not stop or largely stop we will put tariffs on mexico and products, in particular cars. the whole ballgame is cars. with many countries, it is cars. if that does not stop the drugs, we close the border. [end video clip] host: what is the result? guest: it would be negative. the president has put his finger

on to real issues. drugs and illegal immigration. we could talk about those all day. tariffing cars from mexico is the absolute wrong approach. there is no connection, because our industries are so intertwined, he would really be taxing american producers. 37% of our exports to mexico are auto parts, and that comes back to the united states. when you buy a car quote "imported from mexico" it has a , whole lot of american content. he is really taxing an important american industry, and violating of major provision of the proposed new u.s., mexican, and canada agreement. the agreement has not been signed but we did sign a letter saying that we would not tariff mexican cars. he is already backtracking on that. what signal does that send to mexico and canada, and other countries that we want to negotiate on trade if he is so

quickly backtracking on an important feature like that. host: our guest until 8:30. if you want to ask him questions, 202-748-8001 for republicans. 202-748-8 thousand, and for independents 202-748-8002. for those on a border state, 202-748-8003. it was in 2018 when the u.s. imported $342 million in goods. -- 346 million dollars and go to mexico. the shipments were comprised 33% of auto imports. have we seen a response from mexico or what do we suspect a response might be? guest: the president is saying that his tough rhetoric out them -- got them to cooperate more. i think mexico has been cooperative.

the mexican foreign secretary says they have not changed and continue to be cooperative on drugs and illegal immigration. there is only so much they can do. that is one of the other benefits of 25 years of nafta. we have reaped economic gains and a supply platform, but we have the best relation with mexico we have had in our long 200 year history with mexico. they have been cooperative, and the left of center mexican president has been particularly responsive in wanting to work with the united states. they have been cooperative all along and i do not think anything has changed. i am glad the president backed off on that. host: does history teach us anything about border closures? guest: do you remember after september 11? the border slowed. president bush ordered that we

redouble our checks, and there was slowing. it was not totally sealed, but we saw immediate results. some auto manufacturing line shut down because there could not get their parts. that shows you how sensitive the supply chain is. host: our first call from west virginia from carl in berkeley springs. republican line. you are on. good morning. caller: good morning. i noticed that you mentioned all the negativity about the border. i will tell you some positive things. the main thing would be they would be more high-paying jobs in this country for american citizens. it would not cost us $100 billion a year to feed and clothe and give medical attention to those crossing. and the democrats would have fewer people voting for them. i could go on and on about the

positives, but i'm sure you will have the negatives to tell me about. guest: thank you very much. there would be some industries that would gain if we shut the border, but unfortunately, that would not represent a broad swath of america. we are so intertwined that it would affect the auto industry and others. the u.s. chamber of commerce says that 5 million american jobs would be immediately affected. there have been studies done on the benefits of nafta and they tend to go towards places that voted for president trump, the upper midwest and agricultural communities. trade is a two way thing. mexico is our number two export market. you cannot just seal the border one way, it is sealed both way. -- ways. remember, 1.5 million americans live in mexico. can they cross the border if it is sealed? it is a bad idea all around. host: melissa says that if you hit mexico with tariffs and shut

the border, she summarizes that america will survive economically. guest: we would survive. we survived pearl harbor, world war ii, and the great depression but we do not bring it on , ourselves. if a foreign power tried to blockade our southern border, we would consider it an act of war. do we want to do it to ourselves with all the negative implications that would happen? no. let us let trade go forward. it is good for us and them. let us deal with real problems in a cooperative spirit not a confrontational spirit where we are threatening broad devastation to border communities and pain on both sides. host: from arnold in missouri. you are next. caller: good morning and thank you. i would like to ask him, when i i was hired in 1964, all automobile manufacturing was made in the united states including parts, before nafta.

when we had nafta a lot of jobs went to mexico. what makes them think that we cannot manufacture parts in the united states anymore? thank you. guest: the u.s. auto industry has certainly changed. i grew up in the 1970's, and we do not want to go back to those kind of cars. we have safer cars and cars with better mileage. because we can buy imports and have an integrated supply chain. in some ways the u.s. auto sector has never had it better. they are thriving. production is up since nafta. we still produce 11 to 12 million units of automobiles and light trucks each year. we export more than 2 million vehicles a year. we have never been a big exporter, and we are now. i think the u.s. auto sector is doing well. automakers do not want to see

the border closed and they do not want to see tariffs go up. they realize their future is in selling 95% of the world's people and three quarters of the spending power is outside of the united states. our auto sector needs to be integrated in the global economy to be able to survive and thrive. host: we will hear from rob, ohio, republican line. caller: good morning. i wanted to comment. i, myself, i had an interaction here as well. it is, all these people bum rushing the border. thousands and thousands of them. i had to go to the hospital, to about a week ago. i get over there and they take me in.

they checked me out, i have hepatitis and jaundice. so i inquire with the doctor and say, how would i get something like this? he said i'm not supposed to tell you, but with all these people coming across the border, there is not one of them that i am aware of that has the shots for their vaccines for these diseases, leukemia, measles, and mumps. a whole array of them. i think america is going to have a wake up to what is going on there as well. not just the economy of all these fruits and vegetables, but for their health and welfare, because, i think, they ought to put a cap on it because there are too many people coming in, and too many diseases with them. guest: thank you for your comment. there are a lot of reasons for the growth of some of these communicable issues. i think kids not getting vaccinated and people not getting vaccinated is a big part

of it. immigration has been a blessing, but i agree with you that we need more legal immigration which would take the pressure off illegal immigration and the border. the ultimate answer, will first, the immediate answer is not more fencing and border wall. that would take years to build. we have a crisis now and it has to do with the asylum program. we need more judges, detention beds, and more agents at the border to process that. we need to change our laws so it is not so inviting to get in that way. we need to expand legal migration. we are a growing economy and we need workers for the future, both domestic and foreign born. host: this is daniel griswold from the mercatus center. center?the mercatus guest: a nonprofit research institution. we do research on trade, regulation, on taxes. we are affiliated with george

mason university. we have been around for more than 40 years. host: when it comes to issues at the border that is one thing, but to change topics. another viewer on twitter says how do you seek talks with china , going? guest: i think we are making progress. there are things china needs to do. they need to protect intellectual property more vigorously, they need more relaxed rules on foreign investment. these are all good for china. it is good for a country to protect intellectual property because not only foreign but domestic technology is more likely to be produced and used constructively in the economy. i think china has been making progress in recent years and i think the president's tariff war and the retaliation has been bad for the united states. it has cost american consumers billions of dollars. it is cost u.s. industry jobs and production, and exports. it has hurt soybean farmers. i think the right way is to file more cases than the world trade

organization, to work with japan, the european union, and others to bring more pressure. we have taken china to the wto over 20 times and they have modified virtually every time. host: a strong approach to this has shown improvements in the previous. guest: it has brought them to the table, although we have had negotiations and they have yielded some results. i still tend to think the cost of the president's approach -- we have not seen any results yet. let us see if we get some kind of grand deal. there are other, less confrontational and self damaging ways of dealing with china. if you go to the mercatus website, we published a paper on how to respond to china's practices on intellectual property. host: before we let you go, onto the next caller. let's show you the president yesterday assessing those trade talks. [video clip] pres. trump: the vice premier is

here and people who want to make a deal. it has to be a great deal. we have been losing over many years. four, five, $600 billion a year, losing, few years ago, $200 billion a year to china routinely. it is going to be a great deal. it is going well. top officials are here, and it is a very complex and big deal. it is one of the biggest deals ever made. it will be a great deal for our farmers. technology, intellectual property theft, and everything is covered. we could have made a quickie, but we are in a good position. our economy is way up. china is not way up, and we will make a good deal or no deal at all. it looks like it is moving along nicely. [end video clip]

host: what about your assessment of those comments? guest: there is a lot at stake and these are important talks and we are making progress. i totally disagree when he says we are losing $500 billion a -- to china. that is what we spend on imports. those make our lives better. every time you go to a big box retailer, you are benefiting, especially for americans on modest incomes. their budget goes further because of imported goods from china and other countries. let us not forget china is a major export market for the united states. all of those $500 billion that go out come back to the united states either to buy our goods or services or to invest in the united states. the chinese by a lot of treasury funds. our government deficit is going up to $1 trillion a year. if the chinese do not buy those treasury bonds, interest rates go up, and the u.s. has a harder time borrowing money to fund schools and other stuff.

host: on the democrat line from florida, elijah. caller: thank you for taking my question. so, i was wondering, since we know about 90% of the drugs crossing the southern border come through legal points of entry, if they did close the border, how easy would it be for the cartel to navigate away from legal points of entry to a legal -- to illegal points of entry? guest: that is another complicated question. it would make it more difficult to smuggle drugs into the united states if we sealed border, although they can come by air or sea. there are ways of getting in. that is a complicated issue and i think we need to reform our drug laws. we are demanding all of those drugs, and because of drugs being illegal here, the price goes up and there is profit opportunities. you also bring up an important fact. 90% of the drugs are coming through legal points of entry. that is an argument for more

agents at the ports of entry. i have been to el paso. we have sophisticated machines that can screen vehicles and detect drugs. i would like to see more of an investment in that. the wall, however will not do a thing to interdict those drugs. it will take years, to build the wall as he envisions it, it would take 10 years. we have the crisis today, so the wall will not do any good. host: from washington state, republican line. hi c-span, and america. my question to you is that i cannot see the sense in not closing the border when we are allowing this invasion to our country happen. you are actually supporting slavery, human trafficking,

child sex slavery, 90% of the drugs do not come through those ports. that is a bunch of hogwash. that is what is going on. would we survive without it? we would. we do not need all of that. we made that agreement with the president when we voted him in. we would be willing to sacrifice in order to secure this country and to make things good for the american people and our freedom. i have never seen so much hate against the u.s. constitution. and, pure hate of our president. who is, honestly elected to our country and people are trying to say that he is not doing the right thing. he is not good enough. that is not true. i think we have a lot in common

about the constitution and freedom being essential to the united states. -- guest: i think we have a lot in common about the constitution and freedom. they need intelligent solutions aimed at the problem. sealing the border would be like an act of war. it would be like bringing upon ourselves the kind of disaster that happens not just from a hurricane, but from a war or blockade. it is so extreme as to be beyond the pale. it is not just trade policy experts warning about closing the border. mitch mcconnell says it would be potentially catastrophic. ted cruz, who represents texas and is a good friend of the president says that closing the border to legal commerce would be devastating to texas. the u.s. chamber of commerce represents over 3 million businesses says it would be an unmitigated economic debacle. surely, we have better solutions to these problems than this self-inflicted wound on our economy. host: we focus on our neighbors

of the south. let's focus on the north. there is a comment from the canadian foreign minister saying that democrats call for the re-examination for for labor issues would open up a pandora's box when it comes to the process. can you sculpt that out? guest: yes. the u.s.-mexico-canada agreement is the administration's revision of the nafta. there are pluses and minuses. we will not go through those. the politics are flawed. -- fraught. the administration was hoping that because they have labor and environmental provisions and tighten the rules of origin on automobiles that they get more democrats on board. that has not proven to be effective yet. there are 30 democrats that traditionally support trade agreements, there is not any sign that they have expanded it much beyond that. the canadian is right, reopening the agreement will be reopening the can of worms.

a lot of the democrats are saying we need to do that. host: it comes to the issue of enforcement. how do you make sure those laws or provisions are enforced? caller: correct. i think the administration is running into the fact that democrat demands are pretty high and go pretty far beyond.